农产品期权 2025-06-19 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏多上行，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖延续偏弱， 棉花反弹后高位盘整形态，谷物类玉米和淀粉逐渐回暖上升后窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

2、证监会：从 2025 年 10 月 9 日起允许合格境外投资者参与场内 ETF 期权交易，交易目的限于套期保 值。 3、乘联分会：6 月 1-15 日全国乘用车新能源市场零售 40.2 万辆，同比增长 38%。 资金面：融资额+52.70 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率-0.30bp 至 1.366%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.48bp 至 2.8887%，十年期国债利率+0.40bp 至 1.6383%，信用利差-0.88bp 至 125bp；美国 10 年期利率+7bp 至 4.39%，中美利差+7.40bp 至-275.17bp。 文字早评 2025/06/19 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.04%，创指+0.23%，科创 50+0.53%，北证 50-0.65%，上证 50-0.15%，沪深 300+0.12%， 中证 500-0.09%，中证 1000-0.10%，中证 2000-0.28%，万得微盘-0.62%。两市合计成交 11911 亿，较上 一日-161 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、证监会：重启未盈利企业适用科创板第五套上市标准；对第五套标准上市企业 ...

贵金属日报 2025-06-19 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 贵金属 沪金涨 0.35 %，报 787.86 元/克，沪银跌 0.47 %，报 8949.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.54 %， 报 3389.60 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 0.44 %，报 36.75 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.38%，美元指数报 98.89 ； 市场展望： 今日凌晨，美联储召开六月议息会议，FOMC 点阵图及鲍威尔本人的表态均偏鹰派，货币政策表 态对于金银价格短期形成显著的压制。 美联储票委一致同意将利率维持在 4.25%-4.50%的区间不变，点阵图对于 2025 年的利率预期中 值维持在 3.9%，与 3 月相同，但将 2026 年及 2027 年的利率预期中值上调至 3.6%和 3.4%，7 位票委预计今年不会进行降息，显著高于 3 月份时的 4 位。其核心原因在于关税所形成的通胀 风险。鲍威尔本人则认为当前的利率水平并非偏高，而是处于适度水平 ...

有色金属日报 2025-6-19 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 地缘局势边际恶化，美联储议息会议表态偏鹰，铜价震荡下滑，昨日伦铜收跌 0.2%至 9650 美元/吨， 沪铜主力合约收至 78610 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 200 至 107350 吨，注册仓单量维持 低位，注销仓单比例下滑至 49.3%，Cash/3M 升水 106 美元/吨。国内方面，昨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Composite Index and large-cap blue-chip stocks are consolidating and fluctuating at high levels, while small and medium-cap stocks and ChiNext stocks are showing signs of a fluctuating recovery [2]. - The implied volatility of financial options is fluctuating at a historically low level [2]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct covered strategies, neutral double-selling strategies, and vertical spread combination strategies; for index options, it is suitable to construct neutral double-selling strategies and arbitrage strategies between synthetic long or short options and long or short futures [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Important Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,387.40, down 1.32 points or 0.04%, with a trading volume of 458 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.6 billion yuan [3]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,151.43, down 12.12 points or 0.12%, with a trading volume of 749.2 billion yuan, an increase of 15.7 billion yuan [3]. - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2,683.95, down 1.06 points or 0.04%, with a trading volume of 63.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.3 billion yuan [3]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3,870.38, down 3.42 points or 0.09%, with a trading volume of 220.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.5 billion yuan [3]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 5,750.91, down 16.90 points or 0.29%, with a trading volume of 160.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.9 billion yuan [3]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6,141.47, down 5.99 points or 0.10%, with a trading volume of 260.9 billion yuan, an increase of 7.8 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Option Underlying ETF Market Overview - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and trading volume changes of various ETFs such as the Shanghai 50 ETF, Shanghai 300 ETF, and others are presented [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR values and their changes for different option varieties are provided, which can be used to analyze the strength of the underlying option market and potential turning points [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - The pressure and support points for different option varieties are determined based on the strike prices with the largest open interest in call and put options [7][8]. 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data for different option varieties, including at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes, are presented [9]. 3.6 Strategies and Recommendations - The financial options sector is divided into large-cap blue-chip stocks, small and medium-cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks, with specific option strategies recommended for each sector [11]. - For each sector, specific option strategies are provided based on the analysis of the underlying asset market, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [12][13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, they are in a bullish consolidation phase, and a strategy of shorting volatility is recommended; for black metals, they are in a range - bound consolidation and shock phase, suitable for constructing bear spread portfolios and seller option portfolios; for precious metals, gold is in a high - level consolidation, and silver has broken through and moved upwards, suggesting constructing bull spread portfolios and spot hedging strategies [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various metal futures such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are presented. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2507) is 78,560, with a price increase of 30 and a trading volume of 5.83 million lots [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of different metal options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.61, with a change of - 0.16 [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various metal options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of copper is 80,000 and the support level is 77,000 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different metal options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility, is presented. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper is 11.23% [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper Options**: The copper market shows a bullish consolidation. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bull spread portfolio of call options; volatility strategies recommend shorting volatility; and spot long - position hedging strategies involve holding spot long positions, buying put options, and selling out - of - the - money call options [8] - **Aluminum/Alumina Options**: The aluminum market is in a bullish trend. Strategies include constructing bull spread portfolios of call options, selling call and put option combinations, and using spot collar strategies [9] - **Zinc/Lead Options**: The zinc market is in a wide - range shock. Volatility strategies involve selling call and put option combinations; spot long - position hedging strategies use spot collar strategies [9] - **Nickel Options**: The nickel market is in a bearish trend. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread portfolio of put options; volatility strategies involve selling call and put option combinations; and spot long - position hedging strategies involve holding spot long positions and buying put options [10] - **Tin Options**: The tin market shows a rebound after a decline. Volatility strategies recommend shorting volatility; spot long - position hedging strategies use spot collar strategies [10] - **Lithium Carbonate Options**: The lithium carbonate market is in a bearish trend. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread portfolio of put options; volatility strategies involve selling call and put option combinations; and spot long - position hedging strategies involve holding spot long positions and selling call options [11] 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver Options**: Gold is in a high - level consolidation. Volatility strategies involve constructing a short - volatility option seller portfolio with a bullish bias; spot hedging strategies involve holding spot long positions, buying put options, and selling out - of - the - money call options. Silver has broken through and moved upwards [12] 3.5.3 Black Metals - **Rebar Options**: The rebar market is in a bearish trend. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread portfolio of put options; volatility strategies involve selling call and put option combinations; and spot long - position hedging strategies involve holding spot long positions and selling at - the - money call options [13] - **Iron Ore Options**: The iron ore market is in a range - bound shock. Volatility strategies involve selling call and put option combinations with a neutral bias; spot long - position hedging strategies use spot collar strategies [13] - **Ferroalloy Options**: The manganese silicon market is in a bearish trend. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread portfolio of put options; volatility strategies recommend shorting volatility [14] - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Options**: The industrial silicon market is in a bearish trend. Volatility strategies involve selling call and put option combinations; spot long - position hedging strategies involve holding spot long positions and selling call options [14] - **Glass Options**: The glass market is in a bearish trend. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread portfolio of put options; volatility strategies involve shorting volatility; and spot long - position hedging strategies use spot collar strategies [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are bullish, oils and by - products are in a volatile range, soft commodities like sugar are weak, cotton rebounds and consolidates at a high level, and grains such as corn and starch gradually recover and then trade in a narrow range [2]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the price of soybean No.1 (A2509) increased by 0.57% to 4,260, with a trading volume of 11.40 million lots and an open interest of 21.35 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different agricultural product options vary, which can be used to analyze the strength of the underlying asset's market and potential turning points. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 option is 0.56, and the open interest PCR is 0.64 [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different agricultural product options are identified. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 option is 4,600, and the support level is 4,050 [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different agricultural product options shows different characteristics. For example, the weighted implied volatility of soybean No.1 option is 13.79%, with a change of - 1.00% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: Based on the USDA's forecast of soybean and wheat inventories, the soybean market has shown a rebound. Option strategies include bull spread for directional trading, selling neutral call + put option combinations for volatility trading, and long collar strategies for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: With sufficient future soybean supply and increasing oil - mill inventory pressure, option strategies involve bull spread for direction, selling bullish call + put option combinations for volatility, and long collar strategies for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Due to the EPA's draft on bio - fuel demand, palm oil has shown a bullish trend. Strategies include bull spread for direction, selling bullish call + put option combinations for volatility, and long collar strategies for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: With a weakening spot market, option strategies include bear spread for direction and long collar strategies for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.2 By - product Options - **Pigs**: With high sow inventory and potential supply increases, option strategies include selling neutral call + put option combinations for volatility and covered call strategies for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: With increasing egg - laying hen inventory, option strategies include bear spread for direction, selling bearish call + put option combinations for volatility [12]. - **Apples**: With low cold - storage inventory, option strategies include bear spread for direction, selling bearish call + put option combinations for volatility [12]. - **Jujubes**: With a slightly decreasing inventory, option strategies include selling neutral strangle option combinations for volatility and covered call strategies for spot [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: With a weakening sugar market, option strategies include selling bearish call + put option combinations for volatility and long collar strategies for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: Based on the USDA's supply - demand report, option strategies include selling neutral call + put option combinations for volatility and covered call strategies for spot [14]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn and Starch**: With an increase in global corn production forecast, option strategies include selling bullish call + put option combinations for volatility [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, etc. It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Crude Oil**: The latest price of SC2508 is 523, down 6 (-1.17%), with a trading volume of 13.15 million lots (up 1.99 million lots) and an open interest of 2.99 million lots (up 0.58 million lots) [4]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The latest price of PG2508 is 4,258, down 15 (-0.35%), with a trading volume of 4.95 million lots (down 3.09 million lots) and an open interest of 5.03 million lots (down 0.03 million lots) [4]. - **Methanol**: The latest price of MA2509 is 2,417, down 29 (-1.19%), with a trading volume of 259.36 million lots (up 90.37 million lots) and an open interest of 82.01 million lots (up 5.88 million lots) [4]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The latest price of EG2509 is 4,336, up 3 (0.07%), with a trading volume of 40.13 million lots (down 3.38 million lots) and an open interest of 27.47 million lots (up 0.23 million lots) [4]. - **Polypropylene**: The latest price of PP2509 is 7,087, down 20 (-0.28%), with a trading volume of 39.82 million lots (down 23.63 million lots) and an open interest of 46.05 million lots (up 0.42 million lots) [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The latest price of V2509 is 4,838, up 11 (0.23%), with a trading volume of 119.46 million lots (down 18.01 million lots) and an open interest of 97.89 million lots (up 2.02 million lots) [4]. - **Plastic**: The latest price of L2509 is 7,263, down 17 (-0.23%), with a trading volume of 45.50 million lots (down 20.78 million lots) and an open interest of 47.77 million lots (down 1.65 million lots) [4]. - **Styrene**: The latest price of EB2509 is 7,259, down 162 (-2.18%), with a trading volume of 6.64 million lots (down 4.10 million lots) and an open interest of 10.20 million lots (up 0.39 million lots) [4]. - **Rubber**: The latest price of RU2509 is 13,875, up 45 (0.33%), with a trading volume of 40.52 million lots (down 10.03 million lots) and an open interest of 15.96 million lots (down 0.60 million lots) [4]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The latest price of BR2507 is 11,435, unchanged (0.00%), with a trading volume of 15.91 million lots (down 4.72 million lots) and an open interest of 1.83 million lots (down 0.15 million lots) [4]. - **Para - Xylene**: The latest price of PX2509 is 6,694, down 78 (-1.15%), with a trading volume of 34.29 million lots (down 21.83 million lots) and an open interest of 12.15 million lots (down 0.71 million lots) [4]. - **Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA)**: The latest price of TA2509 is 4,724, down 52 (-1.09%), with a trading volume of 150.23 million lots (down 101.59 million lots) and an open interest of 116.95 million lots (down 2.77 million lots) [4]. - **Short - Fiber**: The latest price of PF2508 is 6,448, down 50 (-0.77%), with a trading volume of 16.85 million lots (down 2.18 million lots) and an open interest of 14.03 million lots (up 0.82 million lots) [4]. - **Bottle Chip**: The latest price of PR2508 is 5,988, down 42 (-0.70%), with a trading volume of 1.90 million lots (down 0.50 million lots) and an open interest of 1.79 million lots (up 0.10 million lots) [4]. - **Caustic Soda**: The latest price of SH2508 is 2,288, up 22 (0.97%), with a trading volume of 2.12 million lots (down 0.44 million lots) and an open interest of 2.49 million lots (up 0.03 million lots) [4]. - **Soda Ash**: The latest price of SA2509 is 1,169, up 6 (0.52%), with a trading volume of 119.90 million lots (down 76.25 million lots) and an open interest of 154.69 million lots (down 5.95 million lots) [4]. - **Urea**: The latest price of UR2509 is 1,723, up 58 (3.48%), with a trading volume of 41.19 million lots (up 14.85 million lots) and an open interest of 27.90 million lots (down 0.58 million lots) [4]. 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and open interest PCR values and their changes, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [5]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - For different option varieties, the pressure and support levels are obtained from the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [6]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties includes at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes, as well as the difference between implied and historical volatility [7]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental data shows that the US employment data is weak and the PPI is lower than expected, while geopolitical conflicts have led to a rapid increase in oil prices. The option strategy includes constructing a bull spread of call options and a neutral short call + put option combination, as well as a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The price of crude oil is rising, and the prices of alkylated oil and MTBE are also increasing. The option strategy includes constructing a neutral short call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: The port inventory is accumulating, and the production of different types of methanol remains stable. The option strategy includes constructing a bull spread of call options, a short call + put option combination with a long bias, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9][10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory is expected to accumulate, and the de - stocking will slow down. The option strategy includes constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: The downstream operating rate is low, and the inventory situation is complex. The option strategy includes a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: The overseas production is not at the peak, and the tire inventory is high. The option strategy includes constructing a bear spread of put options, a short call + put option combination with a short bias [12]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: The social inventory is decreasing, but the de - stocking will slow down. The option strategy includes constructing a neutral short call + put option combination [13]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: The production and capacity utilization rate are decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. The option strategy includes constructing a bear spread of put options, a short wide - straddle option combination, and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is weak, and the downstream demand is sluggish. The option strategy includes constructing a bear spread of put options, a short call + put option combination with a short bias, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. 3.5.7 Urea - The inventory is increasing, and the price is falling. The option strategy includes constructing a bear spread of put options, a short call + put option combination with a short bias, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean market has entered a process of oscillating and bottom - grinding at the annual level, but further drivers are needed to break out of the bottom range. The current biodiesel policy on the US soybean side provides positive factors, but considering the global protein supply surplus, US soybeans may still be below cost [2]. - For domestic soybean meal, in the 6 - 8 month growing season, it will face two fundamentals: increasing domestic inventory pressure and US soybean supply - demand trading. The short - term far - month contracts of soybean meal are cautiously bullish, but the upside space is restricted by the global soybean meal supply surplus [3]. - Short - term oils are still bullish, but the upside space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level production increase expectation, the undetermined RVO rules, and the weak edible demand in major countries [6]. - The domestic sugar price is likely to continue to oscillate and decline in the future, and the next rebound requires significant problems in Brazilian sugar production [7]. - The short - term cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate as there is a lack of strong driving forces for continuous rebound [10]. - For eggs, the short - term downside support is accumulating, and it is recommended to gradually exit short positions at low prices and pay attention to the downside support of peak - season contracts later. In the long term, short positions can be established after the rebound of the second - half - year contracts [14]. - For live pigs, short - term long positions can be established at low prices for near - term contracts before delivery, and short positions can be established after the rebound of the second - half - year contracts [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, US soybeans oscillated, and US soybean oil oscillated at a high level after two consecutive days of sharp increases. The global protein surplus restricts the increase of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal spot price increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the inventory situation showed a slight decrease in domestic soybeans and a slight increase in soybean meal. The apparent demand for soybean meal reached the highest level in the same period in history, and the inventory days of feed enterprises also increased month - on - month [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cost range of far - month soybean meal contracts such as 09 is 2850 - 3000 yuan/ton. Currently, it is slightly higher than the cost. The short - term far - month contracts of soybean meal are cautiously bullish [3]. Oils - **Important Information**: High - frequency export data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase in June. The SPPOMA predicts a month - on - month decrease in Malaysian palm oil production in June. The import volume of palm oil, soybeans, rapeseed, and corn in the EU in the 2024/25 year has changed compared with last year. On Tuesday night, crude oil prices rose, and the overall commodities were bullish [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is restricted [6]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The sugar production data in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the second half of May showed an increase compared with the same period last year [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar price is likely to continue to oscillate and decline, and the next rebound requires significant problems in Brazilian sugar production [7]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated strongly. The US cotton planting, boll - setting, budding, and excellent rates as of June 15 showed certain changes compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate due to the lack of strong driving forces for continuous rebound [10]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: Most egg prices in the country rose yesterday, with sufficient supply and acceptable market demand. Today, egg prices in most regions are expected to be stable, and a few regions may see an increase [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term downside support is accumulating. It is recommended to gradually exit short positions at low prices and pay attention to the downside support of peak - season contracts later. In the long term, short positions can be established after the rebound of the second - half - year contracts [14]. Live Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic live pig price was mainly stable yesterday, with a slight increase in some regions. The supply of live pigs may increase, and the terminal demand is weak under high - temperature weather. Today, the live pig price may slightly decline [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term long positions can be established at low prices for near - term contracts before delivery, and short positions can be established after the rebound of the second - half - year contracts [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weakening US economic data and the dovish stance of the "proxy spokesperson" of the Federal Reserve have increased the market's expectation of a marginal easing of the Fed's monetary policy, leading to a strong performance in silver prices [2]. - The Fed is likely to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the June interest - rate meeting, but Powell may set pre - conditions and indicate the specific rhythm for a policy rate cut in the second half of the year, which is a significantly dovish monetary policy stance [3]. - Gold prices are more driven by US fiscal deficit expectations and risk - aversion factors, while silver prices are more likely to benefit from the Fed's marginal easing monetary policy expectations. Attention should be paid to the opportunity for silver price increases. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 767 - 836 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8659 - 9500 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - On June 18, 2025, Shanghai gold rose 0.04% to 787.38 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 1.71% to 8988.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.03% to 3407.90 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.09% to 37.19 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.39%, and the US dollar index was 98.86 [2]. - The table in doc 4 shows the price changes of various precious metals, financial indicators, and stock indices on June 18, 2025, including Au(T + D), London gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, etc. [4] Market Outlook - The weak US retail sales data in May indicates that US consumer spending has weakened significantly under the influence of high - interest rates and tariff policies. As consumer spending accounts for 68.4% of US GDP in Q1 2025, the overall US economic growth will continue to face pressure in the second half of the year [2]. - Before the Fed's June interest - rate meeting, Nick Timiraos suggested that the Fed would maintain a wait - and - see attitude due to tariff uncertainties, but may set conditions for a rate cut in the second half of the year [3]. Data Analysis - The table in doc 7 shows the key data of gold and silver on June 17, 2025, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventories in different markets such as COMEX, LBMA, and SHFE [7]. - Multiple figures (doc 9 - 58) show the relationships between precious metal prices, trading volumes, open interests, and other factors, such as the relationship between COMEX gold prices and the US dollar index, and the relationship between COMEX silver prices and trading volumes [9][17][27] Price Difference Analysis - The table in doc 50 shows the internal - external price differences of gold and silver on June 17, 2025, including SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA price differences [50]