偏空思路延续 鸡蛋周报 2026/01/31 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 CONTENTS 目录 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：上周国内蛋价冲高后走稳或小落，节前备货需求释放，市场走货加快，局部供应偏紧，蛋价继续上涨，但随着节日临近市场走货转 慢，且风控情绪滋生，局部见顶后开始回落，周内淘鸡量延续偏低，鸡龄继续回升；具体看，黑山大码蛋价周涨0.3元至3.8元/斤，周内最 低3.5元/斤，馆陶周涨0.02元至3.58/斤，周内最低3.4元/斤，销区回龙观周涨0.29元至4.2元/斤，东莞周涨0.07元至3.77元/斤；市场供应 正常，小蛋略紧，库存不大，下游需求跟进有限，批发市场走货速度放缓，贸易商采购意向减弱，下周蛋价或先稳后降。 ◆ 补栏和淘汰：12月份补栏环比小幅增加0.1%，为7918万只，同比下降幅度13.9%，补栏情绪延续低迷，不过随着市场预期转好，当前鸡苗价 格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The PX market is currently experiencing a callback in PXN due to a lack of fundamental driving forces and the suppression of the off - season. Although the current load is high and downstream PTA is in the maintenance season with high inventory, the supply - demand structure of PX and PTA is strong after the Spring Festival, and there are opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil in the medium term [11]. - The PTA market shows that the processing fee has remained at a high level, but the market is still weak due to the compression of PXN. In the short term, high maintenance on the supply side and the decline in polyester load on the demand side lead to inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. There is a risk of a processing fee callback in the short term, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [12]. - The MEG market has a high overall load, and the inventory accumulation cycle at ports will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high operation. The current valuation is relatively high year - on - year, and it may need to be compressed in the medium term without further domestic production cuts [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - **Price Performance**: The 03 contract fell 226 yuan last week to 7282 yuan, while the CFR China spot price rose 14 dollars to 921 dollars, and the spot conversion basis rose 119 yuan to 50 yuan as of January 30. The 3 - 5 spread remained flat at - 118 yuan [11]. - **Supply**: The domestic load was 89.2%, a 0.3% increase, and the Asian load was 81.6%, a 0.6% increase. There are still few domestic maintenance plans, and overseas device loads are expected to rise further. In January, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 6.8 tons year - on - year [11]. - **Demand**: The PTA load was 76.6%, remaining unchanged. The expected maintenance volume in February is similar to that in January, and the overall load is still low [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory at the end of November was 446 tons, a 6 - ton increase. It is expected to continue to accumulate in January and February due to high PTA maintenance and high PX operation [11]. - **Valuation and Cost**: As of January 29, PXN was 325 dollars, a 15 - dollar decrease year - on - year; the naphtha crack spread decreased by 15 dollars to 85 dollars. The relative value of aromatics blending into gasoline is weak [11]. - **Summary**: The PX market is affected by the off - season, and the cost of crude oil has compressed the chemical valuation. It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season, but the supply - demand structure is strong after the Spring Festival, and there are opportunities to follow the trend of crude oil for long - position operations in the medium term [11]. PTA - **Price Performance**: The 05 contract fell 178 yuan last week to 5270 yuan, the East China spot price rose 90 yuan to 5245 yuan, the spot basis rose 2 yuan to - 76 yuan as of January 30, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 52 yuan to - 12 yuan [12]. - **Supply**: The PTA load was 76.6%, remaining unchanged, and the expected maintenance volume in February is similar to that in January, with a low overall load [12]. - **Demand**: The polyester load was 84.2%, a 2.2% decrease. Polyester fiber is affected by the off - season, and the bottle - chip load has decreased earlier than expected. Terminal orders have decreased, and inventory has increased [12]. - **Inventory**: As of January 23, the overall PTA social inventory was 208.3 tons, a 3.8 - ton increase, and it has entered the inventory accumulation stage [12]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee rose 33 yuan to 386 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee rose 41 yuan to 491 yuan/ton [12]. - **Summary**: The PTA processing fee is at a high level, but the market is weak. In the short term, there is a risk of a processing fee callback, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [12]. MEG - **Price Performance**: The 05 contract fell 84 yuan last week to 3913 yuan, the East China spot price rose 169 yuan to 3829 yuan, the basis rose 6 yuan to - 112 yuan as of January 30, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 22 yuan to - 105 yuan [13]. - **Supply**: The EG load was 74.4%, a 1.4% increase. Overseas load is low, but domestic production cuts are insufficient. The expected arrival volume last week was 14.7 tons, a 5.8 - ton decrease [13]. - **Demand**: The polyester load was 84.2%, a 2.2% decrease. Polyester fiber is affected by the off - season, and the bottle - chip load has decreased earlier than expected. Terminal orders have decreased, and inventory has increased [13]. - **Inventory**: As of January 26, the port inventory was 85.8 tons, a 6.3 - ton increase, and the downstream factory inventory days increased by 0.2 days to 14.8 days. It is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in January and February [13]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The naphtha - based profit remained at - 1024 yuan/ton, the domestic ethylene - based profit rose 229 yuan to - 543 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit rose 357 yuan to 352 yuan/ton. The current overall valuation is moderately low [13]. - **Summary**: The MEG market has a high load and continuous inventory accumulation. There is an expectation of profit compression and load reduction, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market PX - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened, and the monthly spread declined [31]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Relevant charts show the trends of active contract trading volume, open interest, total trading volume, and total open interest [35][37]. PTA - **Basis and Spread**: The basis weakened, and the monthly spread decreased [39]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Relevant charts show the trends of active contract trading volume, open interest, total trading volume, and total open interest [45][48]. MEG - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and monthly spread trends are presented in relevant charts [53]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Relevant charts show the trends of active contract trading volume, open interest, total trading volume, and total open interest [60][61]. Overseas Commodity Prices - Charts show the overseas price trends of PX, MEG, and PTA [64]. 3.3. p - Xylene (PX) Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: Domestic new capacities include the 30 - ton technical transformation of Fujia Dahua in early 2026, the 200 - ton project of Huajin Aramco in Q3 2026, and the 300 - ton project of Yantai Yulongdao from late 2026 to 2027. Overseas, IOC in India will add 80 tons in H2 2026 [67]. - **Supply**: The load remained stable, with the domestic load at 89.2% and the Asian load at 81.6% [11]. - **Import**: The import volume increased significantly in December [73]. - **Inventory**: There was a slight inventory accumulation in November [76]. - **Cost and Profit**: PXN declined, the short - process price difference was high, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated [79]. - **Aromatics Blending into Gasoline**: Gasoline performance was weak, and the relative value of blending was low [86]. 3.4. PTA Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4 added new capacities. In 2026, India Oil and GAIL will also add capacities [119]. - **Supply**: The load was 76.6%, remaining unchanged, and the expected maintenance volume in February is similar to that in January [12]. - **Export**: Relevant charts show the trends of PTA exports to different regions [124]. - **Inventory**: Inventory has started to accumulate [126]. - **Profit and Valuation**: The processing fee has increased significantly [129]. 3.5. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, Zhengdaikai Phase I, Yulong Petrochemical 1, and Yichang (Kunpeng Phase I) added new capacities. In 2026, BASF, Tianying, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei will also add capacities [133]. - **Supply**: The load was 74.4%, a 1.4% increase, with insufficient domestic production cuts [13]. - **Import**: The import volume increased significantly in December [137]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly this week (with a change in the statistical caliber) [147]. - **Cost**: Coal prices declined, and ethylene prices fell [157]. - **Profit**: The profit is moderately low [160]. 3.6. Polyester and End - Users Polyester - **New Capacity**: There will be many new capacity projects in the first half of 2026, mainly in polyester filament, staple fiber, bottle - chip, and slice [177]. - **Supply**: The operating rate decreased seasonally [179]. - **Export**: The export data in December increased both year - on - year and month - on - month [185]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of polyester filament is at a low level [188]. - **Sales Rate**: Relevant charts show the sales rate trends of filament, staple fiber, and slice [195]. - **Profit**: The profit of polyester filament has improved [198]. End - Users - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate decreased, with a relatively slow year - on - year decline [201]. - **Order and Inventory**: Orders decreased, inventory increased, and raw material inventory increased [205]. - **Textile and Apparel and Soft Drinks**: The domestic demand growth rate of textile and apparel has recovered, but exports are weak [210]. - **US Apparel Inventory**: The wholesale inventory is lower than the pre - pandemic high [212].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - In the medium - to - long term, with the reduction of planting area in the new season and the positive future macro - expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: As of January 24, the cotton planting rate in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9%. As of the week of January 23, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The January forecast of global cotton production for the 2025/26 season was 26 million tons, an 80,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast and a 200,000 - ton increase from the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December forecast and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous season. The January forecast of US production was 3.03 million tons, a 76,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast, with export estimates unchanged and an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease. Brazil's production estimate remained at 4.08 million tons; India's production decreased by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 15 to January 22, US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, with cumulative export sales of 1.7722 million tons, a 194,900 - ton decrease year - on - year; of which, exports to China were 8,800 tons that week, with cumulative exports of 97,400 tons, a 66,000 - ton decrease year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a 40,000 - ton increase year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a 1.56 - million - ton decrease year - on - year [9] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was 1,485 yuan/ton with a +0.5 long - short score and a strengthening basis; the Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread was - 140 yuan/ton with a +0 score and little change; the spinning immediate profit was - 1,623 yuan/ton with a +0 score and a profit decrease; the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 376 yuan/ton with a +0 score and little change; the FC index M 1% was 12,485 yuan/ton and the FC index M sliding - duty was 13,664 yuan/ton, with a - 0.5 score and a relatively high domestic premium. The summary was to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying [10] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For the unilateral strategy, the operation suggestion was to buy on dips, with the core driving logic being the reduction of planting area in the new season and good macro - expectations [11] 3.2. Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: Figures showed the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract [27] - **Import Profit**: Figures presented the 1% tariff and sliding - duty price differences between domestic and foreign cotton [29] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Monthly Spread**: Figures showed the trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads [31] - **Production and Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit**: Figures displayed the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit [33] - **Foreign Market Spread**: Figures showed the spreads between different US cotton contracts and the price differences between US and Brazilian cotton and other indices [35][37] 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production**: Figures showed the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton [41] - **Cotton Import Volume**: Figures presented the monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton [43] - **US Export Contract Quantity to China**: Figures showed the cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of the US to China [46] - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume**: Figures presented the monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn [48] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Figures showed the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills [51] - **National Sales Progress**: Figures presented the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City [54] - **Cotton Inventory**: Figures showed the weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the monthly inventory of commercial and industrial sectors [56] - **Spinning Mill Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory**: Figures presented the cotton and yarn inventories of spinning mills [58] 3.4. International Market Situation - **US Planting Situation**: Figures showed the proportion of US cotton - planting areas without drought and the cotton good - quality rate [62] - **US Production Situation**: Figures presented the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes of US cotton, as well as the production estimate and planting area [64][65] - **US Export Contract Progress**: Figures showed the cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of US cotton in the current year [67] - **US Export Shipment Volume**: Figures presented the annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes of US cotton [69] - **US Supply and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: Figures showed the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of US cotton [70] - **Brazilian Production and Planting Area**: Figures presented the planting area and production of Brazilian cotton [72] - **Brazilian Export Volume**: Figures showed the export volume estimate and monthly export volume of Brazilian cotton, as well as the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio [74][75] - **Indian Production and Planting Area**: Figures presented the planting area and production of Indian cotton [77] - **Indian Consumption and Import - Export**: Figures showed the consumption, import - export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton [79][80]

宏观扰动走弱， 延续震荡格局 钢材周报 2026/01/31 0755-23375155 zhaoh3@wkqh.cn 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 赵航 （联系人） 从业资格号：F03133652 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润和库存 ◆ 需求：本周螺纹钢表观消费量为176.40万吨，环比-4.92%，同比+124.57%。从环比看，临近春节，终端施工活动持续走弱，需求季节性回 落特征较为明显；同比增幅偏大，主要受去年同期低基数影响，实际需求强度仍处于季节性偏弱区间。 热轧卷板方面，本周表观消费量为 311.41 万吨，环比 +0.47%，同比 +14.78%，需求表现相对平稳，制造业端对热卷仍形成一定支撑。 ◆ 库存：本周螺纹钢库存为475.53万吨，较去年同期减少177.60万吨，库存水平仍处于相对低位，但在产量高位、需求回落的背景下，库存 开始加速累积，去库动能明显减弱。 热轧卷板库存为355.58万吨，同比减少约33万吨（-8.50%）。尽管春节时间偏晚、制造业需求恢复节奏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal price rebounded due to sudden news from Canada. The January USDA report data was slightly bearish as the production estimates for the US and Brazil were slightly revised upwards month - on - month, and the US export volume was slightly reduced. However, the overall balance sheet situation was still better than that of the 2024/25 season. Based on weekly sample data, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the protein meal price may be bottoming out [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: From January 15th to January 22nd, the US exported 820,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 33.85 million tons for the current year; 230,000 tons were exported to China during the week, and the cumulative export to China this year was 9.65 million tons. Canadian Prime Minister Carney said he had no plans to sign any trade agreements with China after Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff. From January 16th to January 23rd, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week; the sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The January forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The stock - to - use ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous year. The January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 0.238 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons from the previous year; the forecast for Brazil's production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons from the previous year; the forecast for Argentina's production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged from the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons from the previous year. In addition, the January forecast for US exports was slightly reduced by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared to the December forecast [10]. - **Viewpoints**: The rapeseed meal price rebounded due to Canadian news. The January USDA report was slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet was better than in 2024/25. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased week - on - week. Short - term fundamentals are improving, and protein meal prices may be bottoming out [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - **Spot Prices**: The report presents the spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong from 2022 to 2026 [19][20]. - **Basis of Main Contracts**: It shows the basis trends of the May soybean meal contract and the May rapeseed meal contract from 2022 to 2026 [22][23]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The report displays the 5 - 9 month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [25][26]. - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: It presents the 5 - month and 9 - month spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [28][29]. 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: It includes the planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [34][35][37]. - **Weather Conditions**: It compares the precipitation of Brazilian and US soybeans with the same period of previous years, and provides precipitation data and temperature deviation data for different regions in the US, Brazil, and Argentina [40][41][42]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: It shows the current and next - year market - year cumulative signing volumes of US soybeans, the export volume to China in the current and next market years, and the monthly import volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds in China from 2021 to 2025 [48][49][51]. - **Chinese Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: It presents the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [57][58]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation**: It shows the monthly export volume of Brazilian soybeans, the export volume to China, the weekly and cumulative shipping volumes to China from 2021 to 2025 [60][61][63]. - **Argentine Soybean Shipping to China**: It shows the weekly and cumulative shipping volumes of Argentine soybeans to China from 2022 to 2026 [66][67]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: It shows the port inventory of soybeans and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [71][72]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: It presents the soybean meal and rapeseed meal inventories of coastal major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [74][75]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: It shows the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 [77][78]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Consumption**: It shows the cumulative sales volume and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [81]. - **Breeding Profit**: It presents the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2022 to 2026 [83][84].

01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 短期仍延续震荡整理，以成本为底， 等待驱动并向上展望 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 锰硅周报 2026/01/31 CONTENTS 目录 产业链示意图 01 周度评估及策略推荐 行情回顾 资料来源：文华财经，五矿期货研究中心 上周，锰硅盘面价格延续震荡走势，周度环比上涨22元/吨或+0.38%（针对加权指数，下同）。技术形态角度，锰硅盘面价格仍无明显的趋 势，处于震荡整理阶段。后续建议关注盘面上方6000元/吨以及/6250元/吨处的压力情况，下方关注5800元/吨及5700元/吨附近支撑情况。 图1： 锰硅加权指数价格走势（元/吨，日线） 周度要点小结 ◆ 天津6517锰硅现货市场报价5780元/吨，环比+80元/吨；期货主力（SM605）收盘报5872元/吨，环比+16元/吨；基差98元/吨，环比+64元/吨， 基差率1.65%，处于历史统计值的相对中性水平。 ◆ 利润：锰硅测算即期利润（不含折旧等费用） ...

逢高止盈 原油周报 2025/01/31 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估&策略推荐 05 原油需求 02 宏观&地缘 06 原油库存 03 油品价差 07 气象灾害 04 原油供应 08 另类数据 01 周度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/11 20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation of the lead industry is weak, with both smelting finished - product inventory and social inventory rising. The expectation of the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chairman on January 30th triggered a retreat in market sentiment, and the prices of the non - ferrous metal sector are currently highly volatile. Attention should be paid to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2nd on the sector's sentiment [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 1.69% to 16,918 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 102,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S fell 42 to 2,004 dollars/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 167,900 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,675 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,625 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,050 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on January 29th was 38,400 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from January 26th. The domestic primary basis was - 180 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 275 yuan/ton. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 207,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 20,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 47.72 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 130.1 dollars/ton. - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.218, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 549.49 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 63,000 tons, the factory inventory was 493,000 tons, equivalent to 33.95 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 150 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.4%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 32,100 tons. At the recycled end, the lead waste inventory was 117,000 tons, the recycled smelting start - up rate was 51%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,400 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 69.0% [11]. 3.2. Primary Supply - **Import and Production**: In December 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 149,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 24.63% and a month - on - month change of 35.87%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,425,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.11%. In December 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 239,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 89.27% and a month - on - month change of 31.21%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,931,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.6%. In December 2025, the domestic lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 4.04% and a month - on - month change of - 7.54%. From January to December, the total lead concentrate production was 1,658,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.89%. In December 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 185,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 51.34% and a month - on - month change of 33.42%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,627,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.39% [15][17]. - **Total Supply and Overseas Production**: In December 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 311,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 27.78% and a month - on - month change of 13.11%. From January to December, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 3,285,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.07%. In November 2025, the overseas lead ore production was 264,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 6.49% and a month - on - month change of 1.85%. From January to November, the total overseas lead ore production was 2,674,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.42% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 63,000 tons, the factory inventory was 493,000 tons, equivalent to 33.95 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 150 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 250 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Start - up Rate and Output**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.4%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 32,100 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead output was 332,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.56% and a month - on - month change of 1.56%. From January to December, the total primary lead ingot production was 3,847,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.32% [26]. 3.3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the recycled end, the lead waste inventory was 117,000 tons. The recycled smelting start - up rate was 51%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,400 tons. In December 2025, China's recycled lead output was 354,500 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of - 5.04%. From January to December, the total recycled lead ingot production was 3,962,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.52% [31][33]. - **Net Export and Total Supply**: In December 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 28,600 tons, a year - on - year change of 111.23% and a month - on - month change of 25.65%. From January to December, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 146,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 22.13%. In December 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 715,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.04% and a month - on - month change of - 1.09%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,956,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.72% [35]. 3.4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 69.0%. In December 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 719,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.09% and a month - on - month change of - 0.44%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 7,969,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.27% [38]. - **Battery Export**: In December 2025, the net export volume of batteries containing lead was 1,664,900 units, a year - on - year change of - 35.22% and a month - on - month change of 8.81%. From January to December, the total net export of batteries was 213 million units, a cumulative net export year - on - year change of - 13.06% [41]. - **Inventory Days**: In December 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [43]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle segment, the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, but the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid batteries with lithium - iron phosphate batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption due to replacement demand. In the base station segment, the rapid development of communication technology has led to an increase in the number of communication and 5G base stations, driving a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 3.5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Gap**: In December 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 4,000 tons. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 12,400 tons [62]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Gap**: In November 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 30,200 tons. From January to November, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 171,400 tons [65]. 3.6. Price Outlook - **Domestic and Overseas Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on January 29th was 38,400 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from January 26th. The domestic primary basis was - 180 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 275 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 207,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 20,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 47.72 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 130.1 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.218, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 549.49 yuan/ton [70][72][75]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of Shanghai Lead turned net short, the net long positions of LME lead investment funds decreased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bearish [78].

黑色建材日报 2026-01-30 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3157 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 34 元/吨（1.088%）。当日注册仓单 17283 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 178.54 万手，环比增加 40974 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比增加 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3308 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 28 元/吨（0.853%）。 当日注册仓单 187668 吨, 环比增加 8842 吨。主力合约持 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For the stock index, in the medium to long term, policies support the capital market, and the short - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the context of weak domestic demand recovery, there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, but the timing of overall easing may be postponed. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. - For precious metals, the current weakening of the US dollar credit is irreversible, driving the prices of gold and silver to remain strong. The strategy is to maintain a long - position thinking [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be strong or fluctuate. For example, copper is expected to fluctuate strongly, and aluminum is expected to maintain a strong operation [12][14]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the bottom range, and iron ore prices are expected to be mainly volatile [31][33]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different strategies, such as trading crude oil at the shale oil break - even cost range and considering short - selling urea [57][62]. - For agricultural products, some products' short - term fundamentals are improving, such as protein meals and oils, and there are corresponding trading opportunities [87][89]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market News**: The State Council issued a work plan to support service consumption, some funds were suspended, and new AI chips were released [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have corresponding basis annualized ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: In the medium to long term, policies support the capital market, and the short - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of main contracts changed slightly on Thursday. There were positive results in Sino - US economic and trade consultations, and the HKMA maintained the benchmark interest rate. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and had a net investment [5]. - **Strategy**: In the context of weak domestic demand recovery, there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, but the timing of overall easing may be postponed. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver changed, and COMEX gold and silver had corresponding quotes. The CME raised the gold margin ratio, and Trump planned to announce a new Fed chairman nominee [7]. - **Strategy**: The weakening of the US dollar credit is irreversible, driving the prices of gold and silver to remain strong. The strategy is to maintain a long - position thinking [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Overseas copper mine supply was disturbed, and copper prices fluctuated. LME and domestic inventories changed, and the spot discount and import loss also changed [11]. - **Strategy**: The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with reference ranges for the Shanghai copper main contract and LME 3M copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Aluminum prices fluctuated, and domestic and LME inventories changed. The spot discount and trading sentiment were also affected [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong operation, with reference ranges for the Shanghai aluminum main contract and LME 3M aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [15][16]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices are currently following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase, and the zinc ore inventory is accumulating [17]. Lead - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai lead and LME lead changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [18]. - **Strategy**: The lead industry is currently weak, but the surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally [18]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices fluctuated, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed [19]. - **Strategy**: The Shanghai nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Tin - **Market News**: Tin prices fluctuated narrowly, and the supply and demand and inventory situation changed [20]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The prices of carbonate lithium spot and futures changed, and the inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The price of the alumina index changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [23]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side policies and other factors [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The price of the stainless steel main contract changed, and the spot price and inventory situation also changed [26]. - **Strategy**: The supply of stainless steel is expected to be tight, and the price center may move up, but there are risks [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract changed, and the inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly supported in the short term [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts changed, and the spot prices also increased [30]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the bottom range, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The price of the iron ore main contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [32]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to be mainly volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to steel mill replenishment and production rhythm [33]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market News**: The prices of coking coal and coke main contracts changed, and the spot prices and discounts also changed [34]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to market sentiment [37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market News**: The price of the glass main contract changed, and the inventory decreased [38]. - **Strategy**: The glass market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to wait and see [39]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market News**: The price of the soda ash main contract changed, and the inventory increased [40]. - **Strategy**: The soda ash market is expected to continue to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts changed, and the spot prices and discounts also changed [42]. - **Strategy**: The future market of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is affected by market sentiment and cost factors, and it is recommended to pay attention to relevant factors [45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market News**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [46]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to production reduction and other factors [47]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market News**: The price of the polysilicon main contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [48]. - **Strategy**: The polysilicon market is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to terminal demand and policy adjustments [50]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: The prices of rubber - related products changed, and the market had different views on the rise and fall [52][53][54]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to trade short - term according to the disk, set stop - losses, and control risks [55]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The prices of crude oil and related refined oil futures changed, and the US EIA data showed inventory changes [56]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profit on heavy oil spreads and buy crude oil at the shale oil break - even cost range [57]. Methanol - **Market News**: The prices of methanol spot and futures changed [58]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to buy methanol on dips because of its low valuation and improved future pattern [59]. Urea - **Market News**: The prices of urea spot and futures changed, and the basis was reported [60][61]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short - sell urea because of its expected fundamental negative factors [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [63]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profit gradually on styrene non - integrated profits [64]. PVC - **Market News**: The price of the PVC contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and cost data [65]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short - sell PVC because of its strong supply and weak demand [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The price of the ethylene glycol contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and cost data [67]. - **Strategy**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [68]. PTA - **Market News**: The price of the PTA contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and cost data [69]. - **Strategy**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [70]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: The price of the PX contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and cost data [72]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to follow the crude oil to buy PX on dips in the medium term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The prices of PE futures and spot changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [74]. - **Strategy**: The PE price is affected by supply and demand, and the valuation has downward space [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The prices of PP futures and spot changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [76]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to buy the PP5 - 9 spread on dips in the long term [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market News**: The domestic pig price continued to decline, and the supply and demand situation changed [80]. - **Strategy**: The spot price has limited downward space in the short term, but there may be opportunities to short - sell after a rebound [81]. Eggs - **Market News**: The national egg price was stable with slight increases, and the supply and demand situation changed [82]. - **Strategy**: The egg price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the pressure after a rebound [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal futures changed, and there were corresponding inventory and production data [84][86]. - **Strategy**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out, and the short - term fundamentals are improving [87]. Oils - **Market News**: The prices of oil futures changed, and there were corresponding inventory and production data [88][89]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait for a callback and then try to buy oils [89]. Sugar - **Market News**: The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded, and there were corresponding production and import data [90][91]. - **Strategy**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere harvest, and it is recommended to wait and see [92]. Cotton - **Market News**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated at a high level, and there were corresponding production, inventory, and export data [93][94]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price has room to rise in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [95].