Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, the sentiment for going long cooled down, the number of profit - taking orders increased significantly, and lithium prices declined at an accelerated pace. The total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 15.9% this week, reaching a new low since late October. The expectation of fundamental improvement in lithium carbonate remains unchanged. Recently, upstream maintenance and increased demand for battery exports have led to continued destocking of domestic lithium carbonate. However, the sustainability of supply - side contraction in the future is uncertain, and concerns about the negative feedback caused by rising terminal costs are increasing, so there is significant pressure on the upside of lithium prices. Against the background of low downstream inventories, the bargaining power for pre - holiday raw material procurement is low. After the release of price risks, there may be support at the short - term bottom. Given the large fluctuations in the commodity market recently, and the exchange adhering to the principle of strict supervision, it is recommended to observe cautiously or try with a light position [12] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights** - **Futures and Spot Market**: On January 30, the evening quotation of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 155,107 yuan, a weekly decrease of 5.62%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 155,450 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2605 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 148,200 yuan, a weekly decrease of 18.36% [12] - **Supply**: Lithium salt plants arranged maintenance in the off - season. On January 29, SMM reported the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate at 21,569 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%. The estimated domestic lithium carbonate output in January 2026 was 97,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 56.7% [12] - **Demand**: The Passenger Car Association estimated that the domestic retail sales of new energy vehicles in January would be around 800,000, with a penetration rate of about 44.4%. The first quarter is a critical window period for "grabbing exports" of batteries. The off - season demand is expected to increase, and the decline in material production scheduling is narrower than previously expected [12] - **Inventory**: On January 29, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 107,482 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,414 tons (- 1.3%). The inventory days of lithium carbonate were about 28.5 days. On January 30, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 30,631 tons, a weekly increase of 8.8% [12] - **Cost**: The sentiment of price - holding at the ore end is relatively strong. On January 30, the SMM quoted the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate at 2,050 - 2,300 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 4.4%. Observe the sustainability of cost support at the smelting end [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - On January 30, the evening quotation of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 155,107 yuan, a weekly decrease of 5.62%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 155,450 yuan. The closing price of LC2605 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 148,200 yuan, a weekly decrease of 18.36% [20] - The average discount in the standard electric carbon trading market of the exchange is - 850 yuan (referring to the main contract LC2605). The net short - position of the main seats of lithium carbonate contracts decreased slightly this week [23] - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 2,500 yuan [26] 3. Supply Side - On January 29, SMM reported the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate at 21,569 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%. The estimated domestic lithium carbonate output in January 2026 was 97,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 56.7% [31] - In December, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 60,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.4%, a year - on - year increase of 48.7%, and an annual year - on - year increase of 70.3%. The output of lithium carbonate from lepidolite was 13,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% and an annual year - on - year increase of 17.4% [34] - In December, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes increased by 3.1% month - on - month to 14,990 tons, with an annual year - on - year increase of 15.1%. The output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end was 10,010 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.9% and an annual year - on - year increase of 27.3% [37] - In December 2025, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.5%. The total domestic lithium carbonate imports in 2025 were about 243,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In December 2025, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 11,704.02 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.4% [40] 4. Demand Side - The battery sector dominates lithium demand, accounting for 87% of global consumption in 2024. Future growth in lithium salt consumption will still rely on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while traditional application areas have limited and weak growth [44] - The Passenger Car Association estimated that the domestic retail sales of new energy vehicles in January would be around 800,000, with a penetration rate of about 44.4% [47] - In 2025, about 3.77 million new energy vehicles were sold in Europe, a year - on - year increase of 30.5%. In the same year, about 1.6 million new energy vehicles were sold in the United States, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [50] - According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in December, the total output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 201.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. From January to December, the cumulative output of power and energy - storage batteries was 1,755.6 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 60.1%. In December, the domestic power - battery loading volume was 98.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year increase of 35.1%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic power - battery loading volume was 769.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.4% [53] - In 2025, the domestic output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 58.8% year - on - year, and the output of ternary materials increased by 23.5% year - on - year. The first quarter is a critical window period for "grabbing exports" of batteries. The off - season demand is expected to increase, and the decline in material production scheduling is narrower than previously expected [56] 5. Inventory - On January 29, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 107,482 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,414 tons (- 1.3%). The inventory days of lithium carbonate were about 28.5 days. On January 30, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 30,631 tons, a weekly increase of 8.8% [63] - Driven by the "grabbing exports" demand, the inventory of cathode materials has decreased. The inventories of power batteries and energy - storage batteries are at recent low levels [66] 6. Cost Side - On January 30, the SMM quoted the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate at 2,050 - 2,300 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 4.4%. The sentiment of price - holding at the ore end is relatively strong. Observe the sustainability of cost support at the smelting end [73] - In December, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 628,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.3%. In 2025, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 6.209 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. In 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the import from Africa increased by 14.3% year - on - year. The supply of high - cost hard - rock mines is accelerating, and the import of lithium mines has significantly supplemented the supply [76]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Copper prices soared and then fell back. In the short - term, panic sentiment still has a suppressing effect, but the long - term outlook is not pessimistic. The copper market is expected to gradually stabilize. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai copper contract this week is 99,000 - 108,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12,600 - 13,800 US dollars/ton [13] Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: After copper prices soared and fell back, the weekly starting rate of copper primary enterprises rebounded slightly, and the spot market transactions first declined and then rose. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed, the scrap copper substitution was still low, and the processing rate of recycled copper rods remained low [11]. - **Supply**: The spot processing fee for copper concentrates continued to decline, while the processing fee for blister copper increased month - on - month. Some copper mines faced production problems such as grade decline and strikes [12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 230,000 tons to 9.3 million tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 70,000 tons to 2.33 million tons, LME inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 1.75 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 110,000 tons to 5.22 million tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area decreased by 80,000 tons to 990,000 tons. The spot copper in East China was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the futures on Friday, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a discount of 89.9 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Import and Export**: The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium decreased. In December 2025, China's refined copper imports were 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 3.828 million tons, and the net imports were 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: Copper prices soared and then fell back. The main Shanghai copper contract rose 2.31% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper fell 0.44% to 13,070.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot Price**: Provided the spot prices of electrolytic copper, copper products and recycled copper in different regions and time periods, and the price differences between them [24]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper spot was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the futures in East China on Friday. The LME inventory increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased, and Cash/3M remained at a discount, reporting a discount of 89.9 US dollars/ton on Friday. The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium rebounded [29]. - **Structure**: Both Shanghai copper and LME copper maintained a Contango structure [32]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrates continued to decline to - 49.8 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China rebounded, which still made a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue [37]. - **Import - Export Ratio**: The offshore RMB first appreciated and then depreciated, and the spot Shanghai - LME ratio of copper fluctuated [40]. - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The loss of copper spot imports narrowed [43]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 230,000 tons to 9.3 million tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area decreased by 80,000 tons to 990,000 tons. The increase in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai and Jiangsu, and the inventory in Guangdong decreased slightly. The number of copper warrants increased by 10,058 to 156,851 tons. The increase in LME inventory came from Asian and North American warehouses, European inventory decreased, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased [46][49][52]. 4. Supply Side - **Production**: In January 2026, China's refined copper production increased by about 10,000 tons month - on - month, higher than expected. It is expected that the production in February will decline month - on - month but maintain a high year - on - year growth. In December 2025, the refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the cumulative production for the whole year was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [56]. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The cumulative imports from January to December were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The import of unwrought copper and copper products was 437,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 21.96%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. The import of anode copper was 61,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 23.5%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6%. The import of refined copper was 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 3.828 million tons, and the net imports were 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%. The export of refined copper was 96,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons. The import of recycled copper was 239,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.83% and a year - on - year increase of 9.9%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.342 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [59][62][65][71][74]. 5. Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the main consumption areas of electrolytic copper are power (46%), home appliances (15%), etc. In China, they are construction (26%), equipment (23%), etc [78]. - **PMI**: China's official manufacturing PMI in January decreased to 49.3, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. In December 2025, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was divided [81]. - **Downstream Industry Output**: In December, the year - on - year output of freezers, household refrigerators and power generation equipment increased, while that of automobiles, washing machines, air conditioners, color TVs and AC motors decreased. From January to December, the cumulative output of automobiles, air conditioners, household washing machines, household refrigerators and power generation equipment increased, while that of freezers, color TVs and AC motors decreased [84]. - **Real Estate Data**: In December, domestic real estate data continued to be weak, with new construction, construction, sales and completion all decreasing year - on - year. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline [86]. - **Downstream Enterprise Starting Rate**: The starting rate of some downstream enterprises showed different trends of rise and fall in December, and different expected trends in January. This week, the starting rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased slowly, the starting rate of recycled copper rod production increased slightly but remained at a low level, the starting rate of wire and cable warmed up, and the starting rate of copper strip increased slightly [89][92][95][98][101][104]. - **Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference widened compared with last week, reporting 3,630 yuan/ton on Friday [109]. 6. Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Position**: The total position of Shanghai copper decreased by 1,408 to 1,315,078 lots (bilateral), among which the position of the near - month 2602 contract was 87,404 lots (bilateral) [114]. - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of January 27, the CFTC fund position remained net long, but the net long ratio declined to 15.7%. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds decreased (as of January 23) [117].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Last week's view: The current valuation of methanol is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressure, the recent geopolitical instability in Iran has brought about certain geopolitical expectations, so there is feasibility for bottom - fishing [16]. - This week's view: The current methanol price has almost fully priced in the geopolitical premium. The current price strongly suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may persist, which will put pressure on the upside [16]. Summary by Directory 01 - Weekly Assessment - **Market Trend**: A chart of the methanol index from 2025 - 01 - 01 to 2026 - 01 - 28 is presented [13][14]. - **Factor Assessment & Strategy** - **Supply**: Overseas methanol production starts to slow seasonally, while domestic production remains at a high level. The previous high - volume overseas shipments are arriving slowly, and the current overseas shipments are decreasing seasonally, with a neutral outlook [16]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of MTO, olefins, and formaldehyde remain relatively high. The MTO valuation is low but lacks obvious driving factors. Downstream industries are hesitant about the current methanol price, limiting the price increase. Geopolitical conflicts are unlikely to cause an extreme supply - demand gap, with a neutral outlook [16]. - **Inventory**: The high - level destocking at ports has slowed down, and inventory is expected to accumulate again, but the marginal increase is small. Factory inventories remain stable, with a slightly bearish outlook [16]. - **Cost**: The replenishment of thermal coal inventories has fallen short of expectations, and prices have started to decline from high levels. Oil and gas prices are weakly oscillating with limited expected fluctuations, with a neutral outlook [16]. 02 - Spot and Futures Market - **Basis and Spreads**: Charts of the methanol term structure, Jiangsu methanol prices, methanol 01 basis, and methanol 1 - 5 spreads are provided [19][22][24]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Charts of methanol 01 contract's open interest, trading volume, total open interest, and total trading volume are presented [29][32]. 03 - Profit and Inventory - **Raw Material Prices**: Charts of IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and thermal coal prices (Ordos Q5500 and Qinhuangdao Port Q5500) are provided [43][45]. - **Production Profit**: Charts of coal - based and gas - based methanol production profits in Inner Mongolia, Southwest China, and Shandong are presented [48][49]. - **Port Inventory**: Charts of port inventories, East China port inventories, South China port inventories, and methanol social inventories are provided [52][54][56]. - **Regional Inventory**: Charts of factory inventories, Northwest factory inventories, East China regional inventories, and Ningbo port inventories are presented [61][62][63]. 04 - Supply Side - **Shipment Monitoring**: Charts of global methanol shipments, arrivals, Middle East shipments, and Asia - Pacific arrivals are provided [70]. - **Upstream Production and Operating Rates**: Charts of domestic methanol operating rates, weekly methanol production, and overseas methanol operating rates are presented [76][74]. - **Import Volume**: Charts of import volumes, Iranian imports, Omani imports, and Saudi imports are provided [78][81]. - **Arrival Volume**: Charts of methanol arrivals in East China, South China, and China are provided [86][88]. - **International Price Spreads**: Charts of import profits, China - Southeast Asia spreads, China - US Gulf spreads, and China - Europe spreads are presented [94]. - **Regional Price Spreads**: The regional price spread shows that ports are weak while the inland is strong. Charts of East China - Inner Mongolia spreads, East China - Southern Shandong spreads, Southern Shandong - Northwest spreads, and South China - East China spreads are provided [96][97][99]. - **Domestic Freight**: Charts of methanol freight rates from Dalate Banner to Dongying, Yulin to Dongying, and Luoyang to Changzhou are provided [106]. 05 - Demand Side - **Methanol - to - Olefins** - **Operating Rates**: Charts of olefin operating rates and Jiangsu - Zhejiang MTO operating rates are provided [114]. - **Profits**: Charts of Fude and Xingxing's profits are presented [112]. - **PP Production Profits**: Charts of oil - based, coal - based, PDH - based, and externally - sourced propylene - based PP production profits are provided [119]. - **MTO - Related Spreads**: Charts of PP - 3MA, LL - 3MA, EG - 2MA, and MA - 2ZC spreads are provided [121][125]. - **Traditional Downstream** - **1,4 - Butanediol**: A chart of 1,4 - butanediol capacity utilization rate is provided [130]. - **Acetic Acid**: Charts of acetic acid operating rates and profits are provided [136]. - **Formaldehyde and Dimethyl Ether**: Charts of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether operating rates and profits are provided [140][144]. - **MTBE**: Charts of MTBE operating rates and profits are provided [147][151]. - **Downstream Inventory**: A chart of methanol raw material inventory of downstream manufacturers in China is provided [153]. - **Related Product Ratios**: Charts of methanol - urea, methanol/INE crude oil, methanol/thermal coal, and MA/EG ratios are provided [157]. 06 - Options - Related - **Methanol Options**: Charts of methanol option open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [161]. 07 - Industry Structure Diagram - **Methanol Industry Chain**: A chart of the methanol industry chain and a mind - map of the methanol research framework analysis are provided [165][167].

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 工业硅关注大厂停炉兑现；多晶 硅现货价格松动，承压运行 工业硅&多晶硅周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2026/01/31 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 多晶硅 02 期现市场 05 有机硅 03 工业硅 06 硅铝合金及出口 产业链示意图 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 ◆ 需求： 百川盈孚口径下多晶硅周度产量为1.92万吨，环比延续下行。 百川盈孚口径DMC产量4.21万吨，环比-0.08万吨。 1-12月，铝合金累计产量1929.70万吨，累计同比+315.60万吨或+19.55%。 1-12月，我国工业硅累计净出口70.84万吨，累计同比+1.35万吨或+1.94%。 ◆ 库存：截至2026/1/30，百川盈孚统计口径工业硅库存50.91万吨，环比-0.87万吨。其中，工厂库存25.04万吨，环比-1.16万吨；市场库存 18.90 万吨，环比-0.20万吨；已注册仓单库存6.97万吨，环比+0.49万吨。 ...

01 周度评估及策略推荐 徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号： Z0022675 EB-BZ价差触及同期高位， 做多利润可逐步止盈 苯乙烯周报 从业资格号：F03115061 2026/01/31 CONTENTS 目录 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 纯苯&苯乙烯周度策略 库存：EB厂内库存14.86万吨，环比去库-1.71%，较去年同期去库-20.51%；EB江苏港口库存10.06万吨，环比累库7.59%，较去 年同期累库6.34%。纯苯港口库存出现去化，苯乙烯港口库存去化放缓。 【策略观点】 美联储保持利率不变，符合预期，原油价格大幅反弹。纯苯-石脑油（BZN价差）上涨，EB非一体化装置利润下降，整体估值中 性偏高。苯乙烯供应端压力缓解，需求端进入季节性淡季，下游三S利润均处于历史同期低位，开工季节性回落，港口库存去化 放缓。短期苯乙烯震荡偏多，非一体化装置利润大幅修复，EB-BZ价差已触及历史同期高位，目前利润已中性偏高可，逐步止盈。 本周预测：纯苯（BZ2603 ...

01 周度评估 04 需求端 02 期现价格 05 供需平衡 现实基本面仍存压力， 关注矿端潜在扰动 氧化铝周报 2026/01/31 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 03 供给端 06 库存 01 周度评估 周度要点小结 ◆ 期货价格：截至1月30日下午3时，氧化铝指数周内上涨1.8%至2768元/吨，持仓减少10.3万手至61.4万手。本周在宏观乐观情绪推动下，整体商品价格震荡上行，叠加几内亚博凯 地区某矿山工人罢工事件引发市场对矿石供应稳定性的担忧，氧化铝期货价格本周反弹。基差方面，山东现货价格报2555元/吨，贴水03合约196元/吨。月差方面，连1-连3月差 收盘录得-57元/吨。 ◆ 现货价格：本周各地区氧化铝现货价格延续下跌趋势，广西、贵州、河南、山东、山西和新疆地区现货价格分别下跌25元/吨、下跌10元/吨、下跌10元/吨、持平、持平、持平。 累库趋势持续，多数地区现货价格仍然承压。 ◆ 库存：周内氧化铝社会总库 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production side has warmed up driven by exports, but the marginal effect of policies on the demand side has weakened, leading to a slowdown in durable - goods consumption. There is still a drag from the real - estate market and insufficient consumer confidence, and domestic demand still awaits stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The export data in December was stronger than expected, with exports to non - US regions maintaining resilience [10]. - The central bank has carried out a 0.25 - percentage - point structural interest rate cut and indicated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The Fed decided not to cut interest rates in January, and the market's expectation for the Fed's interest rate cut has been postponed to the middle of the year [10]. - The economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs to be observed. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts under the background of weak domestic demand recovery, but the timing of overall easing may be postponed after the structural interest rate cut. The bond market's allocation power is strong recently, but the market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Situation** - Production has warmed up due to exports, while durable - goods consumption has slowed down. The real - estate market drags and consumer confidence is insufficient. Exports in December were better than expected, with a decline in exports to the US and resilience in non - US regions [10]. - The central bank carried out a 0.25 - percentage - point structural interest rate cut and signaled more room for cuts. The Fed did not cut rates in January, and the expected rate - cut time was postponed to mid - year [10]. - **Liquidity** - The central bank conducted 176.15 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 15 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations this week, with 118.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase and 20 billion yuan of MLF maturing. The net injection was 53.05 billion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.59% [12]. - **Interest Rates** - The latest 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.81%, down 2.34 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year treasury bond yield was 2.29%, down 0.30 BP week - on - week. The latest 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.26%, up 2.00 BP week - on - week [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation** - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to buy on dips with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months, driven by loose monetary policy and difficult - to - improve credit [14]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the closing price, annualized premium/discount, settlement price, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing price and trading volume of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [17][22][25][27]. 3. Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy** - GDP: The real GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations, and the economy showed resilience in the first three quarters [42]. - PMI: In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the service PMI was 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points. The manufacturing supply and demand weakened, with the production index down 1.1 percentage points to 50.6% and new orders down 1.6 points to 49.2 [42][48]. - Price Index: In December, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, core CPI rose by 1.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year. The month - on - month data showed CPI up 0.2%, core CPI up 0.2%, and PPI up 0.2% [51]. - Exports and Imports: In December 2025, exports (in US dollars) increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 30.0% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate [54]. - Industrial Added Value and Retail Sales: In December, industrial added - value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [57]. - Investment and Real Estate: From January to December, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, and real - estate investment was - 17.2%. In December, the month - on - month change of second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.7%, and the year - on - year change was - 6.1% [61]. - **Foreign Economy** - US Economy: In the third quarter, the US GDP at current prices was 3.1095 trillion US dollars, with a real year - on - year growth of 2.33% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4.30%. In December, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year [70]. - EU Economy: In the third quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.4% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. In December, the euro - area CPI increased by 2% year - on - year, the manufacturing PMI was 48.8, and the service PMI was 52.4 [76][79]. 4. Liquidity - In December, the M1 growth rate was 3.8%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.5%. The social financing increment was 2.21 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease. The growth rate of government bonds in social financing slowed down, while the financing of the real - economy sector was stable [84][87]. - The MLF balance in December was 6.25 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan. This week, the central bank's net injection was 53.05 billion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.59% [92]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates** - Domestic treasury bond yields: The 2 - year yield was 1.38%, the 5 - year yield was 1.58%, the 10 - year yield was 1.81%, and the 30 - year yield was 2.29% [95]. - US treasury bond yield: The 10 - year yield was 4.26% [95]. - **Exchange Rates** - Not specifically analyzed in detail, but the report presents the USDCNH spot exchange rate and the US dollar index [106].

铝周报 2026/01/31 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 市场波动剧烈，铝价大幅冲高回落 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 07 进出口 04 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止2026年1月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4499.6万吨；1月电解铝产量同比增长2.7%、环比增加0.5%。预计2月 运行产能保持相对稳定，部分新建电解铝项目逐渐爬产。 2026年1月国内铝水比例环比下降4.4%至72.1%，2月铝水比例预计继续下降。 ◆ 库存&现货：据MYSTEEL数据，本周四铝锭库存录得80.0万吨，较上周四增加3.2万吨。保税区库存录得4.6万吨，较上周四减少0.2万吨。铝 棒库存合计25.3万吨，较上周四增加2.3万吨。LME全球铝库存录得49.4万吨，较上周减少0.2万吨。国内华东铝锭现货基差走弱，LME市场 Cash/3M贴水扩大。 ◆ 进出口：2025年12月中国原铝 ...

陈逸 （联系人） 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023202 春节临近需求偏淡， 短期驱动不足 玻璃周报 从业资格号：F03137504 郎志杰（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F3030112 2026/01/31 产业链示意图 上游 天然碱矿 （天然碱法） 原盐、石灰石 （氨碱法） 原盐、合成氨 （联碱法） 燃料：动力 煤、天然气 中游 轻碱 重碱 氯化铵 下游 日用玻璃 洗涤剂 食品行业 无机盐 平板玻璃 农用氮肥 房地产——约88% 汽车——约6% 光伏——约1% 其他 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 价格：截至2026/01/30，浮法玻璃现货市场报价1020元/吨，环比+10元/吨；玻璃主力合约收盘报1087元/吨，环比+30元/吨；基差-67元/ 吨，环比上周-20元/吨。 成本利润：截至2026/01/30，以天然气为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周均利润为-155.12元/吨，环比+3.57元/吨；河南LNG市场低端价3900元/吨， 环比+50元/吨。以煤炭为燃料生 ...

徐绍祖（联系人） 投产错配叠加季节性， 逢低做多PP5-9价差 聚烯烃周报 2026/01/31 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 CONTENTS 目录 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 聚烯烃周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：美联储维持利率不变，符合预期，国际油价反弹。 估值：聚乙烯周度跌幅（期货＞现货＞成本），聚丙烯周度跌幅（货＞现货＞成本）。 成本端：上周WTI原油上涨4.27%，Brent原油上涨4.84%，煤价上涨0.58%，甲醇上涨2.44%，乙烯上涨5.95%，丙烯上涨3.64%，丙烷 上涨0.82%。成本端反弹。 供应端：PE产能利用率81.56%，环比下降-2.19%，同比去年下降-4.13%，较5年同期下降-9.64%。PP产能利用率76.61%，环比上涨 3.74%，同比去年下降-2.56%，较5年同期下 ...