Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes the sugar - crushing process in February and the bearish impact of increased production is mostly realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the downward space for sugar prices in the short - term may be limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [2][3][4] - For cotton, the February USDA monthly supply - demand report is neutral. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate and the new cotton target price policy that may be announced in March or April. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower edge of the oscillation range [6][8][10] - For protein meal, the expectation of China increasing soybean purchases from the US drives up the CBOT soybean price. For the domestic market, on one hand, the long - term supply pressure increases, and on the other hand, the import cost rises. It is expected that the protein meal price will continue to fluctuate in the short - term [12][13][14] - For oils and fats, driven by the bio - diesel policies of various countries, the consumption growth of oils and fats this year is greater than the production growth rate. The price of oils and fats is bullish in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back and then go long [16][18][19] - For eggs, the market is in the inventory - accumulation period around the Spring Festival. Under weak demand and high inventory, the spot price is likely to fall rather than rise, which drives the futures price down. The near - term contracts may still need to squeeze out the premium. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy. The long - term contracts may trade the capacity reduction logic after the spot price turns, but the implementation path is uncertain. Pay attention to the pressure after the price rises. Before the Spring Festival, pay attention to risk control and keep a light position [20][21] - For pigs, the basic supply is large and the live - animal inventory is accumulating. The spot price and near - term expectations are pessimistic. The near - term may still be under pressure, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. The long - term capacity decline has been revised down, but there are still expectations of a high fat - to - standard price difference, seasonal support, and recovery of consumption demand. Pay attention to the support at the lower level after the price follows the decline. Before the Spring Festival, pay attention to risk control and keep a light position [23][24] Summary by Commodity Sugar Domestic - On Thursday, the domestic sugar spot price index dropped by 7 yuan/ton to 5,294 yuan/ton. In January, the sugar production was 263,000 tons, and the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season was 3.21 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of January, the cumulative national sugar production was 6.89 million tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons year - on - year. In January, the sugar sales volume was 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons year - on - year. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 39.1%, a decrease of 10.75 percentage points year - on - year. The industrial inventory was 4.19 million tons, an increase of 430,000 tons year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 69,700 tons, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons [2] Foreign - According to UNICA data, as of the first half of January in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.23 million tons, an increase of 345,000 tons year - on - year. According to data from the Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of February 4, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons compared with the previous week. As of the end of January 2026 in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in India was 19.5 million tons, an increase of 2.97 million tons year - on - year; the cumulative sugar production in Thailand was 4.8 million tons, a decrease of 460,000 tons year - on - year [3] Cotton Domestic - On Thursday, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B rose by 40 yuan/ton to 16,069 yuan/ton. As of February 6, the spinning mill operating rate was 60.5%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points compared with the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.52 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons compared with the previous week. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year; the cumulative cotton imports in the 2025/26 season were 560,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 20,000 tons year - on - year; the cumulative cotton yarn imports in the 2025/26 season were 720,000 tons, an increase of 110,000 tons year - on - year [6] Foreign - From January 22 to January 29, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a decrease of 194,900 tons year - on - year. Among them, the export to China in that week was 8,800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a decrease of 66,000 tons year - on - year. The February USDA monthly supply - demand report was neutral. The February forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26.1 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared with the January forecast and an increase of 300,000 tons compared with the previous year. The increase in production forecast came from China, with the February forecast for China's production being 7.62 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared with the January forecast. The global consumption forecast was 25.85 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared with the January forecast and a decrease of 50,000 tons compared with the previous year. The global ending inventory forecast was 16.35 million tons, an increase of 130,000 tons compared with the January forecast and an increase of 290,000 tons compared with the previous year. The global inventory - to - consumption ratio forecast was 62.27%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points compared with the January forecast and an increase of 1.25 percentage points compared with the previous year. In other major producing countries, the US export volume forecast was reduced by 40,000 tons to 2.61 million tons compared with the January forecast, while the forecasts for China, Brazil, and India changed little [6][8][9] Protein Meal Domestic - On Thursday, the spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was reported at 3,060 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was reported at 2,510 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. As of February 6, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 260,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.91 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 1.6 million tons year - on - year; the sample soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 900,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 516,000 tons year - on - year [12] Foreign - The February USDA monthly supply - demand report was neutral. The February forecast for global soybean production was 428 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons compared with the January forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year. The global soybean consumption forecast was 424 million tons, an increase of 1.6 million tons compared with the January forecast and an increase of 11.24 million tons compared with the previous year. The global soybean ending inventory forecast was 125 million tons, an increase of 1.11 million tons compared with the January forecast and an increase of 2.12 million tons compared with the previous year. The global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio forecast was 29.55%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points compared with the January forecast and a decrease of 0.29 percentage points compared with the previous year. In major producing countries, the production forecasts for the US and Argentina remained unchanged, and the production forecast for Brazil was increased by 2 million tons to 180 million tons compared with the January forecast. The US soybean export volume and China's soybean import volume forecasts remained unchanged. From January 22 to January 29, the US exported 440,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 34.29 million tons, a decrease of 8.27 million tons year - on - year. Among them, the export of soybeans to China in that week was 230,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative export of soybeans to China was 9.89 million tons, a decrease of 10.33 million tons year - on - year [13] Oils and Fats Domestic - On Thursday, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8,560 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 8,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 9,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. As of February 6, the inventory of the three major oils in domestic sample data was 1.92 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the sample palm oil inventory was 726,700 tons, an increase of 25,300 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 264,900 tons compared with the same period last year; the sample soybean oil inventory was 960,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 73,400 tons compared with the same period last year; the sample rapeseed oil inventory was 240,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 369,800 tons compared with the same period last year [16] Foreign - According to data released by MPOB, the palm oil production in Malaysia in January was 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 250,000 tons compared with the previous month and an increase of 340,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The export volume in January was 1.48 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons compared with the previous month and an increase of 320,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The inventory in January was 2.82 million tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons compared with the previous month and an increase of 1.24 million tons compared with the same period last year. According to data from ITS, from February 1 to 10, 2026, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil was 451,000 tons, a decrease of 10.5% compared with the same period in January. According to data from AmSpec, from February 1 - 10, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil was 399,000 tons, a decrease of 14.2% compared with the same period in January. According to Indonesian customs data, Indonesia exported 2.79 million tons of palm oil in January, an increase of 1.36 million tons compared with the previous month and an increase of 900,000 tons year - on - year. According to USDA data, the February forecast for the 2025/26 Malaysian palm oil production was 20.2 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons compared with the January forecast; the production forecast for Indonesia remained unchanged at 46.7 million tons. In other aspects, the US soybean oil consumption forecast remained unchanged, and the Canadian rapeseed production forecast remained unchanged [16][18] Eggs - Near the Spring Festival, the market trading volume decreased. Most markets had no mainstream trading prices. The Xinji market remained stable at 2.67 yuan/jin, and the Dongguan market rose by 0.24 yuan to 3.43 yuan/jin. It is expected that today's egg prices will mainly stop reporting or remain stable [20] Pigs - Yesterday, domestic pig prices showed mixed trends. The average price in Henan rose by 0.24 yuan to 12.18 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 10.8 yuan/kg. Near the Spring Festival, the slaughter volume of the breeding side gradually decreased, and a small number of slaughtering enterprises stopped work. The trading volume in the pig market decreased. It is expected that today's pig prices may remain stable [23]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current oil prices have risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. Given the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a significant number of negative factors. With potential short - term geopolitical fluctuations overseas, previous short positions should take profits, and short - term observation is recommended [5]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differentials has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching, so short positions on rallies are recommended [8]. - For rubber, approaching the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. During the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a hedging position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity reduction expectations, and export rush support PVC. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, positions can be gradually liquidated [21]. - For polyethylene, OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate is declining [24]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. The number of warehouse receipts is at a high level in the same period of history. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and there are opportunities to go long following crude oil on dips after the Spring Festival [30]. - For PTA, it enters the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to remain high, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [33]. - For ethylene glycol, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high production. The valuation is moderately low year - on - year, and there is a risk of rebound [35]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 0.90 yuan/barrel, or 0.19%, to 476.80 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 8.53 million barrels to 428.83 million barrels, a 2.03% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Lunan, Henan, and Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 10.00 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and MTO profit decreased by 10 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and other regions remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 46 yuan/ton to 1843 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 63 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market rebounded with the commodity market. Bulls were optimistic due to macro, seasonal, and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.94%, and that of semi - steel tires was 73.42% [11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 52 yuan to 4938 yuan. The overall operating rate was 79.3%, an increase of 0.3%. The downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a decrease of 3.3%. Factory inventory was 28.8 tons (- 0.2), and social inventory was 122.7 tons (+ 2.1) [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China rose 87.5 yuan/ton to 6103 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene fell 150 yuan/ton to 7550 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%. Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.80 million tons to 10.86 million tons [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6787 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6585 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a decrease of 0.27%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.67 million tons to 37.97 million tons [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6693 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a decrease of 0.01%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 1.49 million tons to 41.58 million tons [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 62 yuan to 7202 yuan. China's PX load was 92%, an increase of 2.5%. Asian load was 83.7%, an increase of 1.3%. In early February, South Korea's PX exports to China were 17.5 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons year - on - year [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 40 yuan to 5220 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 25 yuan to 5205 yuan. The PTA load was 74.8%, a decrease of 2.8%. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 6 was 232.6 million tons, an increase of 21 million tons [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 41 yuan to 3723 yuan. The spot price in East China fell 13 yuan to 3639 yuan. The supply - side load was 76.8%, an increase of 0.7%. Port inventory increased by 3.8 million tons to 93.5 million tons [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, and the manufacturing sentiment is strong, providing support on the sentiment side. The copper ore supply remains tight, while the domestic refined copper supply maintains high growth, with relatively abundant short - term supply. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate. [4] - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The LME aluminum inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, so there is still strong support for aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will be in a range - bound pattern. [7] - Lead: The visible inventory of lead ore has a slight decline but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains at a low level. The waste battery inventory continues to rise, higher than that in 2025. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. The lead ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the domestic industry situation is weak. Whether the lead price can stabilize needs to be observed based on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival. [10] - Zinc: The accumulation of visible zinc ore inventory slows down, and the zinc concentrate TC stops falling and stabilizes. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory begins to accumulate. The downstream enterprise operations are mediocre, and the finished - product inventories of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises rise rapidly. The domestic zinc industry performs weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment disturbances. Near the Spring Festival holiday, there is still a risk of abnormal movements in non - ferrous metals during the festival. The strong US PMI boosts the market's expectation of consumption recovery, which may drive zinc prices to rise with the non - ferrous metal sector. [12] - Tin: After the secondary decline of precious metal prices, there are signs of stabilization, and tin prices may rebound. Although tin prices still maintain an upward trend in the medium - to - long term, in the short term, with the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, there is also pressure for a significant increase. It is expected that tin prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. [14] - Nickel: After the secondary decline of precious metals and risk assets, they stabilize, and there is a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and it is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate in a wide range. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations, and it is expected to have limited impact on nickel prices. [16] - Lithium Carbonate: In January, the year - on - year growth rates of domestic power and energy - storage battery production and sales were 55.9% and 85.1% respectively, and the lithium demand expectation is strong. After the Spring Festival, the production schedule growth rate of the material side is considerable. At the same time, there are frequent disturbances on the supply side. Although the substantial impact is limited, it is easy to ignite market sentiment under the inventory decline trend. In the future, the game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect the direction of lithium prices. [19] - Alumina: There is a strike in a mine in the Boké region of Guinea. It is necessary to observe whether the impact of the strike expands. Currently, production and shipping are normal. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although there are more capacity overhauls recently, the overall output is still at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [22] - Stainless Steel: From the supply side, although the raw material supply has recovered, under the influence of the steel mill's price - limit policy, the shipment rhythm of agents generally slows down. On the demand side, restricted by the pre - Spring Festival seasonal off - season, the overall market purchasing willingness is not strong, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. Traders mostly choose to actively ship, reduce inventory, and mainly execute previous orders, with a weak willingness to actively restock. Steel mills will have collective production cuts in February, and the market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively controllable. Overall, the stainless - steel fundamentals still have support, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged. [25] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy rebounds. Although the demand is relatively average, under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the short - term price still has support. [28] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The US employment data was better than expected. Overnight, US stocks rose first and then fell, and copper prices rose. The LME copper 3M closed up 1.06% to $13,239 per ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,190 yuan per ton. The LME copper inventory increased by 3,000 to 192,100 tons, with the increase coming from Asian warehouses. The cancelled warrant ratio increased, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. The domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 13,000 to 179,000 tons. The Shanghai spot market turned to a discount of 50 yuan per ton to the futures, and the market trading remained dull. The Guangdong spot market was at a discount of 60 yuan per ton to the futures, and the holders of goods held firm on the basis price quotes, with dull trading. The Shanghai copper spot import loss was about 700 yuan per ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,110 yuan per ton, expanding compared with the previous period. [3] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 101,000 - 104,000 yuan per ton; the reference range for the LME copper 3M is 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars per ton. [4] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The situation between the US and Iran is still uncertain. Crude oil prices rose first and then fell, and aluminum prices rebounded. The LME aluminum closed up 0.39% to $3,117 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,555 yuan per ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased slightly to 663,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,000 to 168,000 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased month - on - month, and the aluminum rod inventory also increased. The aluminum rod processing fee continued to rebound, and the spot trading remained dull. The East China electrolytic aluminum spot was at a discount of 190 yuan per ton to the futures, and the spot trading volume gradually declined. The LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1,000 to 486,000 tons, the cancelled warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. [6] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that aluminum prices will be in a range - bound pattern. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 23,300 - 23,800 yuan per ton; the reference range for the LME aluminum 3M is 3,090 - 3,160 US dollars per ton. [7] Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.39% to 16,753 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 124,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME lead 3S rose 8 to $1,978 per ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 178,100 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan per ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,550 yuan per ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan per ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 46,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 35 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 90 yuan per ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 232,800 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 15,900 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 50.95 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 126.6 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.227, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 306.79 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on February 9 was 49,900 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with February 5. [9] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Whether the lead price can stabilize needs to be observed based on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival. [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.57% to 24,634 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 193,200 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME zinc 3S rose 50 to $3,416.5 per ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 230,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,460 yuan per ton, the Shanghai basis was - 30 yuan per ton, the Tianjin basis was - 80 yuan per ton, the Guangdong basis was - 50 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 20 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 42,300 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 30 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 50 yuan per ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 11,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 19.55 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 71.21 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.046, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 3,392.57 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on February 9 was 128,100 tons, an increase of 9,800 tons compared with February 5. [11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The strong US PMI boosts the market's expectation of consumption recovery, which may drive zinc prices to rise with the non - ferrous metal sector. [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On February 11, tin prices fluctuated and rose. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 394,700 yuan per ton, up 3.32% from the previous day. On the supply side, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan last week remained stable at a high level, and the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, after the two regions recovered from maintenance, the upward momentum was insufficient. There were both constraints on the scrap side and high - price waiting - and - seeing by downstream, and the short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. On the demand side, although the price decline released some rigid procurement demand and the spot trading recovered slightly, the overall price was still at a high level, and the downstream's willingness to restock before the festival was still not obvious, mostly holding a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Coupled with the cost pressure on the terminal industry brought by the overall rise of the metal sector, the upward transmission speed of demand was slow, and the actual support for the现货 market was limited. [13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that tin prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan per ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars per ton. [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 11, nickel prices rose significantly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 139,360 yuan per ton, up 4.51% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums and discounts of various brands remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 50 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 9,500 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day. On the cost side, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at $61.42 per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at $25 per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices fluctuated upward. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,047.5 yuan per nickel point, up 7.5 yuan per nickel point from the previous day. [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate in a wide range. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations, and it is expected to have limited impact on nickel prices. The reference range for Shanghai nickel prices is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan per ton, and the reference range for the LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars per ton. [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The evening quotation of the Wukuang Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 139,123 yuan, up 1.99% from the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 135,500 - 143,600 yuan, with the average price up 2,750 yuan (+2.01%) from the previous working day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 132,500 - 140,500 yuan, with the average price up 1.87% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 150,260 yuan, up 9.41% from the previous closing price. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,200 yuan. [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect the direction of lithium prices. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 138,000 - 156,000 yuan per ton. [19] Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 11, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index rose 0.28% intraday to 2,845 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 457,800 lots, a decrease of 10,400 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of the basis, the Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan per ton, at a discount of 287 yuan per ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $304 per ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 65 yuan per ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Wednesday were reported at 262,700 tons, an increase of 11,700 tons from the previous trading day. At the mine end, the Guinea CIF price remained at $61 per ton, and the Australian CIF price remained at $58 per ton. [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan per ton. It is necessary to focus on domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [22] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,040 yuan per ton, up 2.18% (+300) on the day, with a unilateral position of 205,500 lots, a decrease of 5,669 lots from the previous trading day.

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The black series is currently in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it is likely to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the range, and the trend opportunity is not clear. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points around the Spring Festival, the recovery intensity of plate demand, and marginal changes in "dual - carbon" related policies [3]. - For iron ore, it is expected to fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival. Future focus should be on overseas ore shipping and domestic hot - metal production rhythm [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, in the long - term, it is believed that the commodity bulls will continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals may suppress the market atmosphere. Future market drivers may come from the overall black market sentiment, cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction (or contraction expectations) for ferrosilicon due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. - For coking coal and coke, although it is thought that coking coal may have a smooth upward trend in 2026, in the short term, the upward catalyst is not strong, and there may be a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival [15][17]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival, with supply and demand both weak in February, and the upward driving force is insufficient [21]. - For polysilicon, the supply continues to decrease, the supply - demand relationship marginally improves, and the high inventory in the silicon material link is expected to be slightly reduced. The futures market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand feedback and spot prices after the Spring Festival [23]. - For glass, it is expected to continue the volatile consolidation trend in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton [26]. - For soda ash, it is expected to continue the weak operation, with the reference range of the main contract being 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton [28]. Summary by Categories Steel Products Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3054 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.065%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 16,903 tons, a net increase of 1,193 tons. The open interest of the main contract was 2.0637 million lots, a net decrease of 1,877 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton, also unchanged [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3228 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.248%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 276,419 tons, a net increase of 23,219 tons. The open interest of the main contract was 1.5524 million lots, a net increase of 9,529 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, also unchanged [2]. Strategy Viewpoints - The sentiment in the commodity market has recovered, but the prices of finished steel products have continued to be weak. In the short term, the new carbon - trading policy has limited direct impact on the steel supply - demand pattern, but it helps to raise the cost center and restrict the downward space of steel prices. Near the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of rebar have both declined seasonally, and the inventory has entered the accumulation stage, but the overall inventory - accumulation rhythm is still controllable; the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively stable, the output has decreased slightly, and the inventory has also increased slightly, with the supply - demand structure being generally neutral [3]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 762.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.13% (+1.00). The open interest changed by - 6983 lots to 507,000 lots. The weighted open interest of iron ore was 867,900 lots. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 767 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.70 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.35% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipping volume has declined significantly in the latest period. The shipping volume from Australia has decreased sharply due to cyclones, and the shipping volume from Brazil has decreased slightly. The shipping volume from non - mainstream countries has remained basically stable, and the near - end arrival volume has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the average daily hot - metal output in the latest period was 228.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 tons, lower than expected. The port inventory has continued to increase and is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, which exerts pressure on the absolute price. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival, and future focus should be on overseas ore shipping and domestic hot - metal production rhythm [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On February 11, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed up 0.10% at 5824 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures surface, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 86 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed down 0.07% at 5574 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 124 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - In the long - term, it is believed that the commodity bulls will continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals may suppress the market atmosphere. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but these factors may have been priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, and there is marginal improvement. Future market drivers may come from the overall black market sentiment, cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction (or contraction expectations) for ferrosilicon due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On February 11, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed up 0.40% at 1123.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1550.6 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1360 yuan/ton, with a premium of 236.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of medium - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1253.0 yuan/ton, with a premium of 129.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of Mongolian 5 cleaned coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1227 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1202 yuan/ton, with a premium of 78.5 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 0.12% at 1667.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1725.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 58.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1766 yuan/ton, with a premium of 99 yuan/ton over the futures price [12]. Strategy Viewpoints - Overseas coal - related disturbances have been frequent recently, and the sentiment is bullish, but it has no direct and substantial impact on the domestic coking coal market. The price of coking coal has fluctuated significantly due to the sharp rise and fall of precious metals. In the short term, the upward catalyst for coking coal prices is not strong, and there may be a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival. However, coking coal may have a smooth upward trend in 2026, especially during the period from June to October [15][17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - For industrial silicon, the closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8370 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.06% (- 5). The weighted contract open interest increased by 5762 lots to 424,194 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 830 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract after converting to the futures price was 480 yuan/ton [19]. - For polysilicon, the closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 49180 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.47% (+230). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 700 lots to 65,128 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 52.75 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re -投料 was 53.65 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 4470 yuan/ton [22]. Strategy Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are both weak in February. The supply may shrink significantly, and the demand is also weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival, and the upward driving force is insufficient [21]. - For polysilicon, the supply continues to decrease, the supply - demand relationship marginally improves, and the high inventory in the silicon material link is expected to be slightly reduced. The futures market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand feedback and spot prices after the Spring Festival [23]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - For glass, the main contract closed at 1071 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, up 0.09% (+1). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1030 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1110 yuan, also unchanged. On February 5, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 53.064 million boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 million boxes (+0.95%). In terms of open interest, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 7689 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 14,869 lots [25]. - For soda ash, the main contract closed at 1178 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, up 0.60% (+7). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1128 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7 yuan. On February 5, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5811 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,900 tons (+0.95%), including 746,100 tons of heavy soda ash, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, and 835,000 tons of light soda ash, a month - on - month increase of 6900 tons. In terms of open interest, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 5356 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 5814 lots [27]. Strategy Viewpoints - For glass, downstream processing enterprises are in the final stage, with weak purchasing willingness. The daily melting volume of glass is at a historical low, and there are still plans for cold - repair and transformation of production lines. It is expected to continue the volatile consolidation trend in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton [26]. - For soda ash, the demand for heavy soda ash is still weak, and the daily melting volumes of float glass and photovoltaic glass are at a low level. The market is in a weak and stable volatile state, and it is expected to continue the weak operation, with the reference range of the main contract being 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. January non - farm payrolls data was significantly better than expected, with 130,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.3%. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut further cooled down, causing the prices of gold and silver to plunge in the night session. Precious metals may enter a stage of correction in the short term. The CPI data to be released this Friday remains the core focus of the market. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for now. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Quotes - **Domestic Futures**: Shanghai gold rose 0.44% to 1,130.70 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.88% to 20,965.00 yuan/kilogram. [2] - **International Futures**: COMEX gold rose 1.51% to $5,107.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 4.56% to $84.05 per ounce. The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.16%, and the U.S. dollar index was 96.90. [2] 3.2. U.S. Employment Data - The U.S. January seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs, the largest increase since April 2025, far exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. The unemployment rate dropped slightly from 4.4% to 4.3%. [2][4] - Job growth in January was mainly driven by healthcare and social assistance. Healthcare added 82,000 jobs, social assistance added 42,000, and the construction industry added 33,000 jobs. [3] 3.3. U.S. Fiscal Data - In January, the U.S. budget expenditure was $655 billion and revenue was $560 billion, both reaching record highs for the same period. The government budget deficit was $95 billion, higher than the expected $86.5 billion. The federal deficit so far in fiscal year 2026 is $697 billion, narrowing compared to $840 billion in the same period of the previous fiscal year. [3] 3.4. Strategy Suggestion - Temporarily remain on the sidelines. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract is 1,100 - 1,200 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver contract is 20,000 - 21,800 yuan/kilogram. [4] 3.5. Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX gold's closing price, trading volume, open interest, and inventory all decreased; LBMA gold's closing price decreased slightly, while the closing price of Shanghai gold futures rose. [6] - **Silver**: COMEX silver's closing price and open interest decreased, and inventory decreased; LBMA silver's closing price rose, and the closing price of Shanghai silver futures also rose. [6] 3.6. ETF Holdings - **Gold ETF**: The holdings of most gold ETFs decreased slightly, while PHAU UK's holdings increased slightly. [62] - **Silver ETF**: The holdings of SLV US and ETPMAG Australia increased, while the holdings of PSLV Canada decreased slightly. [62]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, the policy's supportive attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged. For the stock index, the strategy is to buy on dips. For the bond market, it is expected to show a strong and volatile trend. For precious metals, they may enter a phased correction in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see. For various metals, their prices are expected to fluctuate. For energy and chemical products, different strategies such as taking profits on rallies, waiting and seeing, and short - selling on highs are recommended according to different situations. For agricultural products, different investment suggestions are given based on the supply - demand situation of each variety [4][6][9]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The Chinese government promotes AI innovation and development, and the US has positive employment data and fiscal deficit information. Elon Musk plans to build an AI satellite factory on the moon, and Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production quotas [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The divergence in US monetary policy expectations suppresses risk appetite in the capital market. Domestically, liquidity tightens seasonally before the Spring Festival. In the medium to long term, the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond prices show small changes. The CPI in January 2026 is lower than expected, and the PPI improves. The Ministry of Finance issues RMB 14 billion in treasury bonds in Hong Kong, and the central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of RMB 40.35 billion [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The central bank emphasizes the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, and the capital market is expected to remain loose. The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and the bond market is expected to be strong and volatile [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rise. The US non - farm payrolls data is better than expected, and the unemployment rate drops. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cools down, and the prices of gold and silver drop at night [7][8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US employment data is strong, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cools down. Precious metals may enter a phased correction. It is advisable to wait and see, with the reference range for Shanghai gold at 1100 - 1200 yuan/g and for Shanghai silver at 20000 - 21800 yuan/kg [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The US employment data is good, and copper prices rise. LME copper inventory increases, and the domestic spot is at a discount. The import of refined copper is at a loss, and the spread between refined and scrap copper widens [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US and China plan to increase copper reserves. The US economic data is volatile, and the manufacturing industry is strong. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the supply of refined copper is high. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate, with the reference range for Shanghai copper at 101000 - 104000 yuan/ton and for LME copper at 13100 - 13400 US dollars/ton [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The situation in the Middle East affects oil prices, and aluminum prices rise. Domestic aluminum inventories accumulate, and LME aluminum inventories decrease [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, but LME aluminum inventories are low, and the price of US aluminum is at a premium. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with the reference range for Shanghai aluminum at 23300 - 23800 yuan/ton and for LME aluminum at 3090 - 3160 US dollars/ton [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rise. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots starts to accumulate, and the downstream enterprise operation is average [15][16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of zinc ore slows down, and the TC of zinc concentrate stabilizes. The domestic zinc industry is weak, but the strong US PMI may drive zinc prices up [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rise. The inventory of lead ore is higher than in previous years, and the processing fee of lead concentrate is low. The inventory of waste batteries rises, and the social inventory of lead ingots accumulates [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic lead industry is weak. Whether lead prices can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream enterprises after the Spring Festival [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rise significantly. The spot premium is stable, and the price of nickel ore is stable. The price of nickel iron rises [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metals and risk assets rebound, but nickel faces fundamental pressure. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with the reference range for Shanghai nickel at 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton and for LME nickel at 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars/ton [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rise. The production of refined tin in Yunnan is stable, and that in Jiangxi is low. The demand for downstream products is weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metals stabilize, and tin prices may rebound. In the short term, tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely due to the marginal relaxation of supply and demand and the increase in inventory. It is advisable to wait and see, with the reference range for domestic tin at 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton and for overseas tin at 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate rises. The production and sales of power and energy - storage batteries in January increase year - on - year [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand for lithium is strong, and the supply is affected. The game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect lithium prices. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 138,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rises slightly. The domestic spot is at a discount, and the overseas import is at a loss. The inventory of futures increases [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mine in Guinea is on strike. The over - capacity situation of alumina is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulates. It is advisable to wait and see, with the reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 at 2750 - 3000 yuan/ton [24][25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rise. The supply of raw materials recovers, and the social inventory increases [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is controllable, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The stainless steel fundamentals are supported, and the strategy is to buy on dips, with the reference range for the main contract at 13500 - 14500 yuan/ton [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounds slightly. The inventory decreases [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy rises. Although the demand is average, the price is supported in the short term due to supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw materials [29]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil show small changes. The inventory of rebar accumulates, and the demand for hot - rolled coil is relatively stable [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The carbon - emission trading policy may increase the cost of the steel industry. The black series is in a bottom - game stage, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points and demand recovery [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rise slightly. The overseas shipment volume decreases, and the port inventory accumulates [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas shipment enters the off - season, and the inventory pressure is high. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to overseas shipments and domestic iron - making production [34]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rise slightly. The spot is at a premium to the futures [36][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas coal - related disturbances boost sentiment, but the short - term upward drive is weak. The supply is expected to increase after the Spring Festival, and the price may correct. Coking coal may rise smoothly from June to October [39][40][42]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rise slightly, and the inventory increases. Soda ash prices rise slightly, and the inventory increases [43][45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand for glass and soda ash is weak. Glass is expected to fluctuate, with the reference range at 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to be weak, with the reference range at 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton [44][46]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices rise slightly, and ferrosilicon prices fall slightly. The spot is at a premium to the futures [47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term market sentiment is affected by precious metals. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Attention should be paid to the cost of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [48][50]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fall slightly, and polysilicon prices rise slightly. The supply of industrial silicon may contract, and the demand for polysilicon decreases [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Polysilicon's supply decreases, and the inventory may decrease slightly. The futures are expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [52][54][56]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices follow the market to rebound. The opening rate of tire enterprises decreases, and the inventory accumulates [58][59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Before the Spring Festival, it is advisable to reduce risks. It is recommended to trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and use hedging strategies [61]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rise [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [63][64]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of methanol change slightly [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol has priced in many negative factors. It is advisable to stop losses on short positions and wait and see in the short term [66]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of urea change slightly [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window is open, and the fundamentals of urea are expected to be negative. It is advisable to short on highs [68]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene rises, and the price of styrene is mixed. The inventory of styrene accumulates, and the demand is in the off - season [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is high, and the supply is abundant. It is advisable to gradually take profits [70]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rise. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory accumulates [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support the price, and attention should be paid to changes in production capacity and operation [72]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rise. The supply load is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory accumulates [73]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by reducing production. The valuation is neutral to low, and there is a risk of rebound [74]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rise. The supply is in high - maintenance, and the demand decreases. The inventory accumulates [75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA enters the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. The processing fee is expected to be stable, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips in the medium term [76]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rise. The load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. The inventory accumulates [77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. The valuation is expected to rise after the Spring Festival, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips following the crude oil price [78]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The futures price of PE rises, and the spot price falls. The supply is stable, and the demand is in the off - season [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The crude oil price may bottom out. The PE valuation has room to decline, and the inventory pressure is relieved. The demand is weak in the off - season [80]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The futures price of PP rises, and the spot price is stable. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is in the off - season [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [82]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices show mixed trends. Some regions have more slaughter, and some regions have less [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply is large, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. The long - term demand may recover, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower level [85]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mostly stable, and some regions decline. The supply is stable, and the demand weakens [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the spot price is likely to fall. It is advisable to short the near - month contract. The long - term production capacity reduction needs to be observed [87]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The domestic price of soybean meal is stable, and the price of rapeseed meal rises. The global soybean supply and demand are balanced, and the US soybean export decreases [88][89]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in US soybean procurement may increase the supply pressure and import cost. The protein meal price is expected to fluctuate [90]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic oils and fats fall. The domestic inventory of oils and fats increases, and the production and export of Malaysian palm oil change [91][92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The consumption of oils and fats increases more than the production. It is advisable to wait for a callback and then go long [93]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The domestic sugar price is stable. The domestic and foreign sugar production and sales data change [94][95]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere harvest. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space, and it is advisable to wait and see [96]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The domestic cotton price rises. The domestic and foreign cotton supply and demand data are neutral [97][98]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream opening rate and the new cotton target price policy. It is advisable to go long at the lower end of the shock range [99].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes squeezing in February and the negative impact of increased production is mostly realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and with sugar prices at a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [2][3][4]. - For cotton, the February USDA monthly supply - demand report is neutral. After the Spring Festival, focus on the downstream startup rate and the new cotton target price policy that may be announced in March or April. Try to go long at the lower edge of the oscillation range [6][9][10]. - For protein meal, the expectation of China increasing soybean purchases from the US has pushed up the CBOT soybean price. For China, on one hand, the long - term supply pressure increases, and on the other hand, the import cost rises. It is expected that the short - term protein meal price will continue to oscillate [12][13][14]. - For oils, driven by biodiesel policies in various countries, the increase in consumption of oils this year is greater than the production growth rate. Oils prices are bullish in the medium term. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to go long [16][19][20]. - For eggs, the market is in the inventory accumulation period around the Spring Festival. With weak demand and high inventory, the spot price is likely to fall. The near - month contracts may still have a premium to be squeezed out, so maintain a high - shorting思路. The far - end contracts will re - trade the capacity reduction logic after the spot price turns, but the implementation path is still uncertain [22][23]. - For pigs, the basic supply is large and the live - animal inventory is accumulating. The spot and near - term expectations are pessimistic. The near - term may still be under pressure, so maintain a strategy of selling on rallies. The long - term may have support after following the decline, considering factors such as the high fat - to - standard price difference, seasonal support, and the expectation of consumption recovery [25][26]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar Domestic - On Wednesday, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. In January 2026, China produced 263,000 tons of sugar. The cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season was 3.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons. As of the end of January, the national cumulative sugar production was 6.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 600,000 tons. In January, the single - month sugar sales were 1.13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 100,000 tons. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 39.1%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.75 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 4.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 430,000 tons. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. The cumulative sugar imports in 2025 were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons [2]. Foreign - According to UNICA data, as of the first half of January in the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.23 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 345,000 tons. According to data released by Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of February 4, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons from the previous week. As of the end of January 2026 in the 2025/26 crushing season, India's cumulative sugar production was 19.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.97 million tons; Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 480,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 46,000 tons [3]. Cotton Domestic - On Wednesday, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 16,029 yuan/ton, an increase of 41 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. As of February 6, the spinning mill startup rate was 60.5%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.52 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous week. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons; the cumulative cotton imports in the 2025/26 season were 560,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons. In December 2025, China imported 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons; the cumulative cotton yarn imports in the 2025/26 season were 720,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons [6]. Foreign - From January 22 to January 29, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons; among them, the export to China in that week was 8800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons. The February USDA monthly supply - demand report was neutral. The February forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26.1 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the January forecast and an increase of 300,000 tons from the previous year. The increase in production forecast came from China, with a February forecast of 7.62 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the January forecast. The global consumption forecast was 25.85 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the January forecast and a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous year. The global ending inventory forecast was 16.35 million tons, an increase of 130,000 tons from the January forecast and an increase of 290,000 tons from the previous year. The global inventory - to - consumption ratio forecast was 62.27%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points from the January forecast and an increase of 1.25 percentage points from the previous year. The US export volume forecast was reduced by 40,000 tons to 2.61 million tons compared with the January forecast, while the forecasts for China, Brazil, and India changed little [6][9]. Protein Meal Domestic - On Wednesday, the spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was reported at 3060 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was reported at 2480 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. As of February 6, the arrival volume of domestic sample soybeans was 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 260,000 tons from the previous week; the port inventory of sample soybeans was 5.91 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 million tons; the inventory of soybean meal in sample oil mills was 900,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 516,000 tons [12]. Foreign - The February USDA monthly supply - demand report was neutral. The February forecast for global soybean production was 428 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons from the January forecast and an increase of 1 million tons from the previous year; the global soybean consumption forecast was 424 million tons, an increase of 1.6 million tons from the January forecast and an increase of 11.24 million tons from the previous year; the global soybean ending inventory forecast was 125 million tons, an increase of 1.11 million tons from the January forecast and an increase of 2.12 million tons from the previous year; the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio forecast was 29.55%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points from the January forecast and a decrease of 0.29 percentage points from the previous year. The production forecasts for the US and Argentina remained unchanged, while the production forecast for Brazil was increased by 2 million tons to 180 million tons compared with January. The US soybean export volume and China's soybean import volume forecasts remained unchanged. From January 22 to January 29, the US exported 440,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative export of soybeans was 34.29 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.27 million tons; among them, the export of soybeans to China in that week was 230,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative export of soybeans to China was 9.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.33 million tons [13]. Oils Domestic - On Wednesday, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 8950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 9920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. As of February 6, the inventory of the three major oils in domestic sample data was 1.92 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the sample palm oil inventory was 726,700 tons, an increase of 25,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 264,900 tons compared with the same period last year; the sample soybean oil inventory was 960,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 73,400 tons compared with the same period last year; the sample rapeseed oil inventory was 240,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 369,800 tons compared with the same period last year [16]. Foreign - According to data released by MPOB, Malaysia's palm oil production in January was 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 250,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 340,000 tons compared with the same period last year; the export volume in January was 1.48 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 320,000 tons compared with the same period last year; the inventory in January was 2.82 million tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 1.24 million tons compared with the same period last year. According to data from ITS, from February 1 to 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 451,000 tons, a 10.5% decrease compared with the same period in January; according to AmSpec's data, the palm oil export volume from February 1 - 10 was 399,000 tons, a 14.2% decrease compared with the same period in January. According to Indonesian customs data, Indonesia exported 2.79 million tons of palm oil in January, an increase of 1.36 million tons from the previous month and an increase of 900,000 tons year - on - year. According to USDA data, the February forecast for Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season was 20.2 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from the January forecast; the production forecast for Indonesia remained unchanged at 46.7 million tons. The US soybean oil consumption forecast remained unchanged, and the Canadian rapeseed production forecast remained unchanged [17][19]. Eggs - Yesterday, the egg prices in most parts of the country were stable, while a few areas saw a decline. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.04 yuan to 3.29 yuan/jin. The price in Xinji dropped 0.06 yuan to 2.67 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao dropped 0.06 yuan to 2.78 yuan/jin. The price in Dongguan remained stable at 3.15 yuan/jin. The supply of goods was stable. As the Spring Festival approached, the market demand continued to weaken, and the market trading activity decreased. It is expected that most egg prices in the country may stop reporting today, and some prices may remain stable or decline [22]. Pigs - Yesterday, the domestic pig prices mainly declined, while some areas remained stable or had a small increase. The average price in Henan increased 0.12 yuan to 11.94 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 10.8 yuan/kg. In some areas, the pre - festival clearance of pigs by farmers was still ongoing, with active slaughter, which may lead to a decline in pig prices. In some areas, the slaughter volume of farmers was gradually decreasing, which was beneficial to pig prices and may lead to an increase. It is expected that pig prices may show a mixed trend of increase, decrease, and stability today [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Since the second half of 2025, the global copper price has risen significantly, and the continuous tight supply of copper mines is an important factor driving the upward trend of copper prices. The current global copper mine supply remains tight, and the growth expectation for 2026 is weak, constrained by multiple structural factors. In an environment with sufficient funds in the financial market, the impact of mine - end disturbances is likely to be magnified, and copper prices still have strong support [1][23] Summary by Related Catalogs 2025 - 2026 Copper Mine Production - In Q4 2025, the sample mines had a year - on - year production reduction of about 290,000 tons, a decrease of 6.7%. The Grasberg mine under Freeport, the Kamoa - Kakula mine, Escondida, and some mines under Antofagasta all had significant production declines [4] - In 2025, the global sample mines produced about 16.65 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 270,000 tons (- 1.6%). It is expected that the sample mines will produce about 16.86 million tons in 2026, with an increase of about 210,000 tons, but the growth rate is lower than previously expected [5] 2025 Copper Mine Cost - In 2025, the 90th - percentile C1 cash cost of overseas sample copper mines was about $5,543 per ton, a decrease of 2.63% compared to 2024. The reasons include high by - product prices, stable energy prices, and the recovery of some mine production [8] Ore Grade - The average ore grade of overseas sample copper mines decreased from about 0.82% in 2021 to about 0.68% in 2025, showing a significant structural decline [13] Capital Expenditure - Since 2015, the capital expenditure of global sample copper mines has shown a fluctuating upward trend, but the growth rate has slowed down in recent years. The actual capital investment scale may be even lower after adjusting for inflation [16] - Maintenance capital expenditure accounts for most of the total capital expenditure. The increase in capital expenditure is mainly for the maintenance of existing development projects. The increase in capital expenditure for greenfield and brownfield project expansions is still moderate [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current prices have factored in a high geopolitical premium. Given the potential over - expected production increase in Venezuela and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits at high prices and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a significant number of negative factors. With potential short - term geopolitical fluctuations overseas, it is recommended to take profits on previous short positions and adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [4]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is advisable to short on rallies [7]. - For rubber, approaching the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term on the market, set stop - losses, and avoid holding single - sided positions during the festival. Consider holding a long NR main contract and short RU2609 contract for hedging [12]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, with strong supply and weak demand. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support the price, the weak fundamentals may affect the industry pattern. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so it is advisable to gradually take profits [19]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and the overall demand is in a seasonal off - peak. The price is expected to be supported by the significant reduction of coal - based inventory [22]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, the short - term situation is stable. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is positive, and there are opportunities to go long following crude oil prices after the Spring Festival [28]. - For PTA, it is entering the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to remain high, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long at low prices [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing inventory accumulation and high production pressure. Although there is a risk of a short - term rebound due to geopolitical and cost factors, the supply - demand situation needs to be improved through increased production cuts [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: On February 12, 2026, the INE main crude oil futures rose 4.30 yuan/barrel, or 0.91%, to 476.80 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, rose 39.00 yuan/ton, or 1.38%, to 2,860.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 76.00 yuan/ton, or 2.32%, to 3,357.00 yuan/ton [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu remained unchanged, while those in Lunan, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia changed by 5 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, and 5 yuan/ton respectively. The main futures contract changed by 14.00 yuan/ton to 2,248 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 12 yuan [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China changed by 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively, while that in Hubei remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 12 yuan/ton to 1,797 yuan/ton [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market rebounded with the commodity market. The bulls were optimistic about the market due to macro - economic expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while the bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.94%, 1.47 percentage points lower than the previous week but 40.93 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 73.42%, 1.93 percentage points lower than the previous week but 44.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.1 million tons, a 0.9 - million - ton increase from the previous month, or 0.7%. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 1.09 million tons to 59.12 million tons, a 1.88% increase [9][10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 19 yuan to 4,990 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,750 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 240 (+1) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 113 (+4) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2,550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 695 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 590 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, with the calcium carbide method at 80.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method at 75.5%, a 0.5% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a 3.3% decrease from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 28.8 million tons (- 0.2), and the social inventory was 122.7 million tons (+2.1) [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6,103 yuan/ton, an 87.5 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6,124 yuan/ton, an 87.5 - yuan/ton increase, and the pure benzene basis was - 21.5 yuan/ton, a 2.5 - yuan/ton reduction. In the spot - futures market, the styrene spot price was 7,550 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan/ton decrease, and the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7,497 yuan/ton, a 24 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 53 yuan/ton, a 174 - yuan/ton weakening. The BZN spread was 153.62 yuan/ton, a 12.5 - yuan/ton decrease. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 213.975 yuan/ton, a 44.125 - yuan/ton decrease. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton reduction. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, a 0.68% increase, and the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 million tons, a 0.80 - million - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, a 0.23% increase, the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a 0.40% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, a 2.98% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a 1.70% decrease [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6,787 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan/ton increase, and the spot price was 6,585 yuan/ton, a 90 - yuan/ton decrease. The basis was - 202 yuan/ton, a 102 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a 0.27% decrease from the previous period. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 million tons, a 5.67 - million - ton increase from the previous period, and the trader inventory was 2.32 million tons, a 0.23 - million - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 33.73%, a 4.03% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 49 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton expansion [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6,693 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton increase, and the spot price was 6,675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 18 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous period. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 million tons, a 1.49 - million - ton increase from the previous period, the trader inventory was 18.32 million tons, a 0.02 - million - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 6.37 million tons, a 0.03 - million - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 49.84%, a 2.24% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 94 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton expansion, and the PP5 - 9 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan/ton reduction [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 44 yuan to 7,264 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 8 US dollars to 917 US dollars. The basis was - 39 yuan (- 8) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 3 - 5 spread was - 114 yuan (- 26). The PX operating rate in China was 89.5%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, and the Asian operating rate was 82.4%, a 0.8% increase. In terms of plants, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical was increasing production, and Fujian United Petrochemical's operating rate fluctuated. The PTA operating rate was 77.6%, a 1% increase, with Sichuan Energy Investment restarting, Dushan Energy under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 175,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of February, a 30,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of December was 4.65 billion tons, a 190 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 297 US dollars (- 5), the South Korean PX - MX was 142 US dollars (+3), and the naphtha crack spread was 106 US dollars (+15) [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 30 yuan to 5,260 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 40 yuan to 5,180 yuan. The basis was - 73 yuan (+2), and the 5 - 9 spread was 24 yuan (- 4). The PTA operating rate was 77.6%, a 1% increase, with Sichuan Energy Investment restarting, Dushan Energy under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan under maintenance. The downstream operating rate was 78.2%, a 6% decrease, with Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament plant restarting and 4.75 million tons of chemical fiber plants such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 24% to 9%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 6 was 2.326 billion tons, a 210 - million - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 1 yuan to 365 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 16 yuan to 420 yuan [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 31 yuan to 3,764 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 29 yuan to 3,652 yuan. The basis was - 114 yuan (- 4), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 110 yuan (- 2). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol operating rate was 76.2%, a 1.8% increase, with the syngas - based method at 76.8%, a 4.3% decrease, and the ethylene - based method at 75.9%, a 5.4% increase. Among the syngas - based plants, Wonen was shut down and expected to restart in the short term, Guanghui restarted, and Sinochem reduced production due to an accident. In the oil - chemical sector, Zhongke Refining & Chemical and Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and Satellite switched production after shutting down. Overseas, China Taiwan's Zhongxian shut down, and Saudi Arabia's Sharq2 restarted. The downstream operating rate was 78.2%, a 6% decrease, with Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament plant restarting and 4.75 million tons of chemical fiber plants such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 24% to 9%. The import arrival forecast was 181,000 tons (two weeks), and the East China departure volume on February 10 was 12,400 tons. The port inventory was 935,000 tons, a 38,000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based production profit was - 1,312 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 710 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 24 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 695 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal decreased to 580 yuan [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, with strong manufacturing sentiment providing support. The copper price is expected to fluctuate, with the Shanghai copper main contract reference range of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M reference range of 13,000 - 13,300 US dollars/ton [5]. - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, with weak demand in the off - season; LME aluminum inventories remain relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing strong support for the aluminum price. Before the holiday, the aluminum price is expected to be range - bound, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract reference range of 23,300 - 23,800 yuan/ton and the LME aluminum 3M reference range of 3,080 - 3,130 US dollars/ton [8]. - Lead: The visible lead ore inventory has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains low. The scrap battery inventory continues to rise. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. Whether the lead price can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [10]. - Zinc: The visible zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have started to accumulate, and the downstream industry is performing weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment. Strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise [12]. - Tin: Short - term precious metal prices show signs of stabilizing after a second decline, and tin prices may rebound. In the short term, due to the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventories, there is pressure on a significant increase. The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - Nickel: Precious metal and risk asset prices have stabilized after a second decline, with a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and the short - term nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations and is expected to have limited impact on the nickel price [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: Before the holiday, funds are in a wait - and - see mood. The future lithium demand is expected to be strong. If the resumption of production of large mines in Jiangxi fails, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate after the Spring Festival will still be tight. Currently, there is a lack of new drivers, and the lithium price is likely to fluctuate within a range [19]. - Alumina: There is a strike in the bauxite mine in Guinea, and the subsequent impact needs to be observed. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [22]. - Stainless Steel: From the supply side, the raw material supply has recovered, but the agents' shipment rhythm has slowed down under the steel mill's price - limit policy. From the demand side, affected by the pre - Spring Festival off - season, the market's purchasing willingness is not strong. The market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and it is recommended to maintain the strategy of buying low, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 13,900 yuan/ton [24]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has risen. Despite general demand, the short - term price is still supported under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The US retail sales data was weaker than expected. Overnight, the US stock market rose and then fell, and the copper price fluctuated and adjusted. The LME copper 3M closed down 0.64% to 13,100 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,730 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 4,800 tons to 189,100 tons. Domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.9 to 166,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a premium of 5 yuan/ton to the futures, and the spot in Guangdong was at a discount of 105 yuan/ton to the futures. The spot import of Shanghai copper had a loss of about 700 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, with strong manufacturing sentiment providing support. The copper price is expected to fluctuate, with the Shanghai copper main contract reference range of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M reference range of 13,000 - 13,300 US dollars/ton [5]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: As the long holiday approaches, market volatility has decreased. The increasing uncertainty of the Mozambique aluminum plant's production cut has led to an adjustment in the aluminum price. The LME aluminum closed down 0.8% to 3,105 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,545 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 0.4 to 663,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 167,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories in three regions increased, and aluminum rod inventories rose. The LME aluminum ingot inventories decreased by 0.2 to 487,000 tons [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, with weak demand in the off - season; LME aluminum inventories remain relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing strong support for the aluminum price. Before the holiday, the aluminum price is expected to be range - bound, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract reference range of 23,300 - 23,800 yuan/ton and the LME aluminum 3M reference range of 3,080 - 3,130 US dollars/ton [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.52% to 16,688 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 126,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME lead 3S rose 11.5 to 1,970 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 176,300 lots. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,525 yuan/ton, and the recycled refined lead average price was 16,500 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 45,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 232,800 tons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible lead ore inventory has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains low. The scrap battery inventory continues to rise. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. Whether the lead price can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.30% to 24,494 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 193,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S rose 5 to 3,366.5 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 229,400 lots. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,460 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 34,200 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,900 tons [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have started to accumulate, and the downstream industry is performing weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment. Strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: On February 10, the tin price fluctuated narrowly. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 382,000 yuan/ton, down 0.57% from the previous day. On the supply side, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained high and stable last week, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. On the demand side, although the price decline has released some rigid procurement demand and spot transactions have slightly improved, the overall price is still at a high level, and the downstream's pre - holiday restocking willingness is not obvious [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term precious metal prices show signs of stabilizing after a second decline, and tin prices may rebound. In the short term, due to the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventories, there is pressure on a significant increase. The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract reference range is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin reference range is 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 10, the nickel price fell slightly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 133,350 yuan/ton, down 0.87% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price fluctuated upward [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metal and risk asset prices have stabilized after a second decline, with a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and the short - term nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations and is expected to have limited impact on the nickel price. The Shanghai nickel price reference range is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract reference range is 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 136,408 yuan in the evening session, up 0.06% from the previous trading day. The LC2605 contract closed at 137,340 yuan, up 0.25% from the previous closing price [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Before the holiday, funds are in a wait - and - see mood. The future lithium demand is expected to be strong. If the resumption of production of large mines in Jiangxi fails, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate after the Spring Festival will still be tight. Currently, there is a lack of new drivers, and the lithium price is likely to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 129,000 - 147,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 10, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index fell 1.11% to 2,837 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 468,200 lots, a decrease of 14,600 lots from the previous trading day. The Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 280 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at 304 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was reported at - 69 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts on Tuesday were reported at 251,000 tons, an increase of 84,000 tons from the previous trading day [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a strike in the bauxite mine in Guinea, and the subsequent impact needs to be observed. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The future price trend depends on whether the Guinea mine disturbance can be materialized and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated. The domestic main contract AO2605 reference range is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,740 yuan/ton, up 0.04% (+5) on the day, with a unilateral position of 211,200 lots, a decrease of 6,582 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the prices of cold - rolled coils in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged. The raw material prices also remained stable. The futures inventory was 47,800 tons, an increase of 4,221 from the previous day. As of February 6, social inventories increased to 914,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07%, and the 300 - series inventory was 632,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49% [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: From the supply side, the raw material supply has recovered, but the agents' shipment rhythm has slowed down under the steel mill's price - limit policy. From the demand side, affected by the pre - Spring Festival off - season, the market's purchasing willingness is not strong. The market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and it is recommended to maintain the strategy of buying low, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 13,900 yuan/ton [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the cast aluminum alloy price fluctuated. The main AD2604 contract closed down 0.2% to 22,120 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position increased to 25,000 lots, and the trading volume was 8,700 lots. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.12 to 67,300 tons. The domestic three - region aluminum alloy inventory decreased by 0.01 to 40,900 tons [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has risen. Despite general demand, the short - term price is still supported under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [27].