Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found. Core View of the Report - Soybean meal is expected to rise in the short - term following the import cost, with the profit from oil extraction recovering, which will stimulate vessel bookings. In the medium - term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is still to sell on rallies [4]. - For palm oil, it is recommended to view it with a sideways perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [8]. - For sugar, it is advisable to wait for the weakening of the rebound momentum and then look for opportunities to short [10]. - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. - Egg prices are expected to be mainly firm in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upper resistance and wait for opportunities to short [17]. - For live pigs, the current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait for rallies to short [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. The USDA has resumed data release and announced the schedule for the soybean sales report. The Brazilian soybean planting rate as of last Thursday reached 61% of the expected level, lower than 67% in the same period last year. In the next two weeks, rainfall in the southeastern part of the Brazilian soybean - producing area will be uneven and scarce, while it will be normal in other areas. The domestic soybean inventory is at the highest level in history, and the soybean meal inventory is large [2]. - **Strategy**: The import cost is mainly in a volatile state. It is expected that soybean meal will rise in the short - term following the import cost, with the profit from oil extraction recovering. In the medium - term, the strategy is still to sell on rallies as the global soybean supply is expected to be loose [4]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: From November 1 - 10, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month. The production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, and from November 1 - 10, it decreased by 2.16% compared with the same period last month. India's palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil imports in October all decreased compared with September. Indonesia plans to start road tests on vehicles using biodiesel with a 50% palm oil content in early December and implement the "B50" mandatory measure in the second half of next year. Domestic oils showed a divergent trend on Thursday, with palm oil being weak and rapeseed oil being strong [6]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to view palm oil with a sideways perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [8]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The production of sugar in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of October is expected to increase by 7.8% to 1.92 million tons. Datagro has lowered its forecast for the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season [9]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait for the weakening of the rebound momentum and then look for opportunities to short [10]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. As of November 7, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.4%, showing a decline. On November 12, the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton purchase index remained unchanged, while the hand - picked cotton purchase index decreased [12]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight decline yesterday. The supply is sufficient, and the market demand is average [15]. - **Strategy**: Egg prices are expected to be mainly firm in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upper resistance and wait for opportunities to short [17]. Live Pigs - **Market Conditions**: The domestic live pig price continued to decline yesterday. The demand side shows no sign of improvement, and the upstream breeding side is reluctant to sell at low prices [18]. - **Strategy**: The current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait for rallies to short [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall stance of Fed officials on November 14 was hawkish, but it couldn't change the trend of further monetary - policy easing. After the retirement of Atlanta Fed President Bostic, Trump is expected to appoint a dovish voting member, bringing a "dovish tilt" to the Fed and undermining its independence. In the early stage of the Fed's current easing cycle, it is advisable to buy silver on dips. The gold - silver ratio still has room for further downward correction. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 937 - 1001 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11734 - 13000 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On November 14, Shanghai gold rose 0.11% to 956.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.40% to 12405.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4174.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 52.23 dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.11%, and the US dollar index was 99.16 [2]. 3.2 Fed Officials' Stances - Cleveland Fed President Hammack believed that a certain degree of tightening was needed to continue to put pressure on inflation. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, known as the "hawk king", thought the Fed should not have kept interest rates unchanged at the previous meeting. St. Louis Fed President Musalem was slightly neutral, supporting rate cuts to protect the labor market but advocating caution [2]. 3.3 Policy Expectations - Atlanta Fed President Bostic will retire in February next year. After his retirement, Trump is expected to appoint a dovish voting member, which will bring a "dovish tilt" to the Fed's policy decisions until 2027 [3]. 3.4 Investment Strategies - In the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to buy silver on dips. The gold - silver ratio has room for further downward correction. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 937 - 1001 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11734 - 13000 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.5 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) on November 13 was 4174.50 dollars/ounce, down 0.64% from the previous day; trading volume was 30.25 million lots, up 8.80%; inventory was 1168 tons, down 0.01%. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) was 961.22 yuan/gram, up 1.63%; trading volume was 52.98 million lots, up 26.50%; inventory was 90.43 tons, up 0.90% [5]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) on November 13 was 52.23 dollars/ounce, down 1.88% from the previous day; trading volume was 251.01 million lots, up 69.49%; inventory was 14815 tons, down 0.39%. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) was 12588.00 yuan/kilogram, up 4.27%; trading volume was 78.30 million lots, up 4.23%; inventory was 584.01 tons, up 0.16% [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term excessive bearishness on oil prices is not advisable. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but currently, it is recommended to wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when oil prices fall [2]. - For methanol, high port inventories are suppressing prices. Overseas production remains high, and the previous expected benefits from early overseas shutdowns have been disproven. With coal prices strong and enterprise profits declining, supply pressure persists while demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see as prices may fall further [4]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to positive news due to large internal - external price differences and low domestic prices. Domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. New export policies may improve the market atmosphere, and it is expected to bottom out with limited downside [7]. - For rubber, there are different views from bulls and bears. Bulls focus on factors like limited production in Southeast Asia, seasonal trends, and improved Chinese demand, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations and weak demand. It is recommended to trade short - term with a neutral mindset and partially build a hedging position [9][10]. - For PVC, the supply is strong with low comprehensive enterprise profits and high production. Domestic demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is advisable to consider short - term short - selling opportunities [11]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the supply of benzene is relatively abundant, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and prices may stop falling [16]. - For polyethylene, the price of crude oil may have bottomed out. The downward space for PE valuation is limited, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [19]. - For polypropylene, the cost side may face supply surplus, and the supply pressure is high. With weak supply and demand and high inventory, it may be supported in the first quarter of next year [22]. - For PX, it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in November, but it is supported by aromatics blending for gasoline and long - term supply - demand structure. It mainly follows crude oil fluctuations, and there may be opportunities for mid - term valuation increase [26]. - For PTA, it is expected to accumulate inventory in November due to new device launches. However, there may be opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the mid - term [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, and inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 17.10 yuan/barrel, a 3.66% decline, at 449.50 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. Singapore's ESG oil product data showed gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, while fuel oil and total refined oil inventories increased [7]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, and currently, wait and see [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Taicang and Inner Mongolia prices were stable, and the 01 - contract on the futures market was down 5 yuan at 2103 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 [3]. - **Strategy**: High port inventories, strong coal prices, and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see as prices may fall [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Shandong's spot price was down 10, while Henan and Hubei were stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market was up 3 yuan at 1658 yuan, with a basis of - 68 [6]. - **Strategy**: Sensitive to positive news, high supply, and weak domestic demand. It is expected to bottom out with limited downside [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The expiration of November warehouse receipts led to positive market expectations. The opening rates of tire factories were neutral, and export new - order expectations were not high [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral mindset, trade short - term, and partially build a hedging position [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market was up 5 yuan at 4586 yuan, with a basis of - 76. Supply was high, and demand was weak, with factory and social inventories changing [10]. - **Strategy**: Strong supply, weak demand, and poor export expectations. Consider short - term short - selling opportunities [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene was stable, while the price of styrene increased. The BZN spread was up, and the profit of non - integrated EB devices increased. Supply was under pressure, and demand was mixed [15]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and styrene prices may stop falling [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price was up, and the spot price was stable. Supply was limited, and inventory was decreasing. Seasonal demand was emerging [18]. - **Strategy**: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out, and it is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price was up, and the spot price was stable. Supply pressure was high, and demand was gradually recovering [20]. - **Strategy**: With supply surplus on the cost side and high inventory, it may be supported in the first quarter of next year [22]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market was up 62 yuan at 6836 yuan. PX load was high, and downstream PTA load was low. Inventory was expected to increase slightly [25]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in November, mainly follow crude oil fluctuations, and there may be mid - term valuation increase opportunities [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market was up 30 yuan at 4700 yuan, and the spot price was down. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was stable but facing pressure [27]. - **Strategy**: Expected to accumulate inventory in November, but there may be opportunities for strengthening driven by PXN increase in the mid - term [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market was up 1 yuan at 3892 yuan, and the spot price was down. Supply was high, and port inventory was increasing [29]. - **Strategy**: High supply and expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of agricultural product options shows that oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, while other sectors such as by - products, soft commodities, and grains maintain a volatile market. It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly based on sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Overview of the Underlying Futures Market - Different agricultural product options have various price changes, trading volumes, and open - interest changes. For example, the price of soybeans A2601 decreased by 0.12% to 4,113, with a trading volume of 7.95 million lots and a decrease of 4.92 million lots compared to the previous period, and an open - interest of 24.71 million lots with a decrease of 0.05 million lots [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open - Interest PCR - PCR indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For instance, the volume PCR of soybeans is 0.68 with a change of 0.10, and the open - interest PCR is 1.22 with a change of 0.02 [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open - interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different option underlying are determined. For example, the pressure level of soybeans is 4,200 and the support level is 4,050 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option products shows different trends. For example, the weighted implied volatility of soybeans decreased by 0.20 to 11.96, and the difference between implied and historical volatility is - 1.23 [6] 3.5 Option Strategies for Different Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybeans**: Fundamentally, the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans decreased, and the import cost increased. The market has shown a rebound after a decline. Optionally, the implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal**: Fundamentally, the trading volume and pick - up volume decreased, and the basis increased slightly. The market has shown a rebound after a decline. Optionally, the implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Palm Oil**: Fundamentally, the production in Malaysia is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the inventory will gradually decline. The market is in a low - level consolidation. Optionally, the implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open - interest PCR indicates support at the bottom. Strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Peanuts**: Fundamentally, the peanut oil market is in a contradictory situation. The market is in a weak consolidation. Optionally, the implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, and the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.2 By - products Options - **Pigs**: Fundamentally, the production and inventory of pigs have increased. The market is in a downward trend. Optionally, the implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy for call options, a bearish call + put option combination, and a covered strategy for spot [10] - **Eggs**: Fundamentally, the market has a high supply and weak demand. The market has shown a rebound after a decline. Optionally, the implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination [11] - **Apples**: Fundamentally, the apple production has decreased, and the expected cold - storage inventory is low. The market is in an upward trend. Optionally, the implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open - interest PCR indicates strong support at the bottom. Strategies include constructing a bullish call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] - **Jujubes**: Fundamentally, the market price is stable, and the supply is sufficient. The market is in a downward trend. Optionally, the implied volatility has rapidly increased to above the historical average, and the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing a bearish wide - straddle option combination and a covered strategy for spot hedging [12] 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: Fundamentally, the external sugar market is weak, and the production in Brazil may decline. The market is in a weak and volatile state. Optionally, the implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, and the open - interest PCR indicates a range - bound market. Strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] - **Cotton**: Fundamentally, the new cotton supply will increase, putting pressure on prices. The market is in a short - term weak state. Optionally, the implied volatility is at a low level, and the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination and a covered strategy for spot [13] 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn**: Fundamentally, the purchase price of corn has decreased, and the supply exceeds demand. The market is in a weak rebound state. Optionally, the implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, and the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination [13]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical options strategy morning report dated November 13, 2025, covering various energy and chemical option varieties [1][2] - The strategy focuses on constructing option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - Multiple option varieties are presented, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc., with details on their latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest [3] Group 3: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - PCR indicators (volume PCR and open interest PCR) for various option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the underlying asset's market and potential turning points [4] Group 4: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for each option variety are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest call and put option open interest [5] Group 5: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data for different option varieties are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes [6] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations for Each Option Variety Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis shows that U.S. refinery demand has stabilized and rebounded, shale oil production has slightly increased, OPEC exports have risen, and European refinery demand is about to enter the peak season [7] - The market has shown a complex trend of rising and falling in different months. Implied volatility is above the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. The pressure level is 590, and the support level is 450 [7] - Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The cost - end crude oil is under supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances. The LPG market has shown a pattern of over - decline and rebound with resistance [9] - Implied volatility has dropped to below the average, the open interest PCR indicates a weak market, the pressure level is 4550, and the support level is 4200 [9] - Strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] Methanol - Port and enterprise inventories are high, and the supply is increasing. The market has been in a weak downward trend [9] - Implied volatility is around the historical average, the open interest PCR indicates a weak and volatile market, the pressure level is 2500, and the support level is 2000 [9] - Strategies involve constructing a bear spread with put options, a short - biased call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] Ethylene Glycol - Port and downstream factory inventories are high, and the supply is expected to continue to increase. The market has been weak [10] - Implied volatility is below the average, the open interest PCR indicates strong short - selling power, the pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 4050 [10] - Strategies include constructing a bear spread with put options, a short - volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Polypropylene - PE and PP inventories at production enterprises, traders, and ports show different trends. The market has been in a weak downward trend [10] - Implied volatility has dropped to around the average, the open interest PCR indicates a weak market, the pressure level is 7000, and the support level is 6300 [10] - Strategies include constructing a bear spread with put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Rubber - Exchange rubber warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The market has been in a weak consolidation pattern [11] - Implied volatility has decreased to below the average after a sharp rise, the open interest PCR is below 0.6, the pressure level is 16000, and the support level is 14500 [11] - Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination [11] PTA - PTA social inventory has increased, and new production capacity is expected to lead to continued inventory accumulation. The market has shown a pattern of rebound with resistance [11] - Implied volatility is above the average, the open interest PCR indicates a volatile market, the pressure level is 4700, and the support level is 4300 [11] - Strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination [11] Caustic Soda - The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity has increased. The market has been in a weak downward trend [12] - Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, the open interest PCR indicates a weak and volatile market, the pressure level is 3000, and the support level is 2000 [12] - Strategies include constructing a bear spread and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] Soda Ash - Soda ash factory inventories have increased. The market has been in a low - level weak consolidation pattern [12] - Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, the open interest PCR indicates strong short - selling pressure, the pressure level is 1860, and the support level is 1100 [12] - Strategies include constructing a bear spread, a short - volatility combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] Urea - Enterprise inventory is at a high level, and port inventory has decreased. The market has shown a pattern of low - level consolidation and rebound [13] - Implied volatility is around the historical average, the open interest PCR indicates strong short - selling pressure, the pressure level is 1800, and the support level is 1600 [13] - Strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The metal sector is divided into non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals. For non - ferrous metals, a neutral volatility selling strategy can be constructed; for black metals, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable; for precious metals, a bull spread combination strategy can be built [2]. - For each metal variety, the report provides investment strategies based on fundamental analysis, market trend analysis, and option factor research [7][9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - Quantity and Open Interest PCR - The PCR indicators (quantity PCR and open interest PCR) are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning points of the underlying market [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - Shows the pressure and support levels of various metal options based on the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Displays the implied volatility data of various metal options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations - **Non - Ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Due to the expected decline in apparent consumption and the increase in total inventory, a short - volatility seller option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [7]. - **Aluminum**: Given the inventory changes and market trends, a bull spread combination strategy and a short - option combination strategy are suggested [9]. - **Zinc**: With inventory and market conditions, a short - neutral option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy are proposed [9]. - **Nickel**: Considering the supply - demand situation and market trends, a short - bearish option combination strategy and a spot covered strategy are recommended [10]. - **Tin**: Due to the slow resumption of production and supply shortages, a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy are suggested [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Based on inventory reduction and market trends, a short - neutral option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [11]. - **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Considering the Fed's interest rate policy and market trends, a short - neutral volatility option seller combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy are proposed [12]. - **Black Metals** - **Rebar**: Given the production and market trends, a short - bearish option combination strategy and a spot long - covered strategy are recommended [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Based on inventory and market trends, a short - bearish option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy are suggested [13]. - **Ferroalloy (Manganese Silicon)**: Considering production and market trends, a short - volatility strategy is recommended [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Based on production and market trends, a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy are proposed [14]. - **Glass**: Given the production and inventory situation, a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy are recommended [15]. 3.6 Charts - Provide price charts, trading volume, and open interest charts, PCR charts, implied volatility charts, and historical volatility cone charts for various metal options such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc [16][37][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a high - level volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all in this state [3] - The implied volatility of financial options has declined but remains at a relatively high level of fluctuation [3] - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a long - biased buyer strategy and a bull spread strategy for call options; for index options, it is suitable to construct a long - biased seller strategy, a bull spread strategy for call options, and an arbitrage strategy between long synthetic futures and short futures [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Important Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,000.14, down 2.62 points or 0.07%, with a trading volume of 840.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.9 billion yuan [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,240.62, down 48.39 points or 0.36%, with a trading volume of 1,104.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.7 billion yuan [4] - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 3,044.30, up 9.67 points or 0.32%, with a trading volume of 136.9 billion yuan, an increase of 18.8 billion yuan [4] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,645.91, down 6.26 points or 0.13%, with a trading volume of 492.3 billion yuan, an increase of 14.7 billion yuan [4] - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7,243.25, down 48.36 points or 0.66%, with a trading volume of 313.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.8 billion yuan [4] - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,486.38, down 54.41 points or 0.72%, with a trading volume of 390.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.4 billion yuan [4] 3.2 Option - underlying ETF Market Overview - The Shanghai 50 ETF closed at 3.197, up 0.017 or 0.53%, with a trading volume of 5.5359 million shares, an increase of 5.4848 million shares, and a trading value of 1.769 billion yuan, an increase of 0.14 billion yuan [5] - The Shanghai 300 ETF closed at 4.765, up 0.002 or 0.04%, with a trading volume of 5.2369 million shares, an increase of 5.1804 million shares, and a trading value of 2.492 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.11 billion yuan [5] - The Shanghai 500 ETF closed at 7.356, down 0.038 or 0.51%, with a trading volume of 1.3422 million shares, an increase of 1.3263 million shares, and a trading value of 986 million yuan, a decrease of 192 million yuan [5] - The Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.449, down 0.008 or 0.55%, with a trading volume of 27.7884 million shares, an increase of 27.58 million shares, and a trading value of 4.011 billion yuan, an increase of 952 million yuan [5] - The E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.405, down 0.007 or 0.50%, with a trading volume of 7.0292 million shares, an increase of 6.9671 million shares, and a trading value of 982 million yuan, an increase of 99 million yuan [5] - The Shenzhen 300 ETF closed at 4.912, down 0.003 or 0.06%, with a trading volume of 1.7625 million shares, an increase of 1.7435 million shares, and a trading value of 864 million yuan, a decrease of 73 million yuan [5] - The Shenzhen 500 ETF closed at 2.937, down 0.016 or 0.54%, with a trading volume of 602,500 shares, an increase of 595,000 shares, and a trading value of 177 million yuan, a decrease of 46 million yuan [5] - The Shenzhen 100 ETF closed at 3.528, up 0.003 or 0.09%, with a trading volume of 425,100 shares, an increase of 419,000 shares, and a trading value of 149 million yuan, a decrease of 67 million yuan [5] - The ChiNext ETF closed at 3.108, down 0.005 or 0.16%, with a trading volume of 11.8147 million shares, an increase of 11.7089 million shares, and a trading value of 3.649 billion yuan, an increase of 325 million yuan [5] 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - For the Shanghai 50 ETF option, the trading volume was 915,600 contracts, an increase of 168,100 contracts; the open interest was 1,569,300 contracts, an increase of 73,000 contracts; the trading volume PCR was 0.98, an increase of 0.01; the open interest PCR was 0.98, an increase of 0.08 [6] - For the Shanghai 300 ETF option, the trading volume was 1,125,500 contracts, an increase of 167,400 contracts; the open interest was 1,520,800 contracts, an increase of 107,300 contracts; the trading volume PCR was 1.13, a decrease of 0.01; the open interest PCR was 1.07, an increase of 0.03 [6] - For the Shanghai 500 ETF option, the trading volume was 1,777,500 contracts, an increase of 449,400 contracts; the open interest was 1,515,900 contracts, an increase of 111,700 contracts; the trading volume PCR was 1.09, a decrease of 0.19; the open interest PCR was 1.13, a decrease of 0.04 [6] - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the trading volume was 1,331,600 contracts, an increase of 292,900 contracts; the open interest was 2,548,200 contracts, an increase of 168,600 contracts; the trading volume PCR was 0.88, a decrease of 0.03; the open interest PCR was 0.86, a decrease of 0.02 [6] - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the trading volume was 257,200 contracts, an increase of 56,100 contracts; the open interest was 664,900 contracts, an increase of 46,500 contracts; the trading volume PCR was 1.04, an increase of 0.28; the open interest PCR was 0.85, a decrease of 0.02 [6] - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the trading volume was 218,700 contracts, an increase of 65,100 contracts; the open interest was 305,300 contracts, an increase of 9,300 contracts; the trading volume PCR was 2.27, an increase of 0.59; the open interest PCR was 0.82, an increase of 0.01 [6] - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the trading volume was 248,200 contracts, an increase of 61,400 contracts; the open interest was 428,700 contracts, an increase of 4,400 contracts; the trading volume PCR was 1.45, an increase of 0.02; the open interest PCR was 0.75, a decrease of 0.02 [6] - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the trading volume was 49,900 contracts, a decrease of 15,500 contracts; the open interest was 135,200 contracts, an increase of 1,700 contracts; the trading volume PCR was 3.32, a decrease of 0.05; the open interest PCR was 1.28, an increase of 0.02 [6] - For the ChiNext ETF option, the trading volume was 2,019,100 contracts, an increase of 317,500 contracts; the open interest was 2,030,600 contracts, an increase of 62,200 contracts; the trading volume PCR was 1.25, an increase of 0.21; the open interest PCR was 1.05, a decrease of 0.01 [6] - For the Shanghai 50 index option, the trading volume was 44,600 contracts, an increase of 9,700 contracts; the open interest was 72,100 contracts, a decrease of 2,100 contracts; the trading volume PCR was 0.59, a decrease of 0.07; the open interest PCR was 0.76, an increase of 0.03 [6] - For the CSI 300 index option, the trading volume was 121,100 contracts, an increase of 400 contracts; the open interest was 214,500 contracts, an increase of 2,200 contracts; the trading volume PCR was 0.69, an increase of 0.07; the open interest PCR was 0.84, a decrease of 0.01 [6] - For the CSI 1000 index option, the trading volume was 315,600 contracts, an increase of 86,100 contracts; the open interest was 325,500 contracts, an increase of 5,100 contracts; the trading volume PCR was 0.89, an increase of 0.03; the open interest PCR was 1.04, a decrease of 0.05 [6] 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - For the Shanghai 50 ETF option, the underlying closing price was 3.197, the at - the - money strike price was 3.20, the pressure point was 3.30 with an offset of 0.10, the support point was 3.10 with an offset of 0.00, the maximum long position for calls was 139,546, and the maximum long position for puts was 141,924 [8] - For the Shanghai 300 ETF option, the underlying closing price was 4.765, the at - the - money strike price was 4.80, the pressure point was 4.80 with an offset of - 0.10, the support point was 4.70 with an offset of 0.00, the maximum long position for calls was 106,113, and the maximum long position for puts was 95,614 [8] - For the Shanghai 500 ETF option, the underlying closing price was 7.356, the at - the - money strike price was 7.25, the pressure point was 7.50 with an offset of 0.00, the support point was 7.25 with an offset of 0.00, the maximum long position for calls was 133,156, and the maximum long position for puts was 111,222 [8] - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the underlying closing price was 1.449, the at - the - money strike price was 1.45, the pressure point was 1.50 with an offset of - 0.05, the support point was 1.40 with an offset of 0.00, the maximum long position for calls was 163,152, and the maximum long position for puts was 88,840 [8] - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the underlying closing price was 1.405, the at - the - money strike price was 1.40, the pressure point was 1.50 with an offset of 0.00, the support point was 1.35 with an offset of 0.00, the maximum long position for calls was 27,341, and the maximum long position for puts was 16,653 [8] - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the underlying closing price was 4.912, the at - the - money strike price was 4.90, the pressure point was 5.25 with an offset of 0.00, the support point was 4.70 with an offset of - 0.10, the maximum long position for calls was 23,975, and the maximum long position for puts was 15,078 [8] - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the underlying closing price was 2.937, the at - the - money strike price was 2.95, the pressure point was 3.10 with an offset of 0.10, the support point was 2.75 with an offset of 0.00, the maximum long position for calls was 24,317, and the maximum long position for puts was 16,923 [8] - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the underlying closing price was 3.528, the at - the - money strike price was 3.50, the pressure point was 3.70 with an offset of 0.00, the support point was 3.50 with an offset of 0.10, the maximum long position for calls was 8,525, and the maximum long position for puts was 6,236 [8] - For the ChiNext ETF option, the underlying closing price was 3.108, the at - the - money strike price was 3.10, the pressure point was 3.20 with an offset of 0.00, the support point was 3.00 with an offset of 0.00, the maximum long position for calls was 141,878, and the maximum long position for puts was 82,870 [8] - For the Shanghai 50 index option, the underlying closing price was 3,044.30, the at - the - money strike price was 3,050, the pressure point was 3,100 with an offset of 0, the support point was 3,000 with an offset of 0, the maximum long position for calls was 3,582, and the maximum long position for puts was 3,291 [8] - For the CSI 300 index option, the underlying closing price was 4,645.91, the at - the - money strike price was 4,650, the pressure point was 4,700 with an offset of 0, the support point was 4,700 with an offset of 0, the maximum long position for calls was 12,128, and the maximum long position for puts was 8,469 [8] - For the CSI 1000 index option, the underlying closing price was 7,486.38, the at - the - money strike price was 7,500, the pressure point was 7,500 with an offset of 0, the support point was 7,000 with an offset of 0, the maximum long position for calls was 11,546, and the maximum long position for puts was 9,333 [8] 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - For the Shanghai 50 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility was 14.28%, the weighted implied volatility was 14.60%, a decrease of 0.00%, the annual average was 15.94%, the call implied volatility was 14.57%, the put implied volatility was 14.65%, the 20 - day historical volatility was 1

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The expectation of the US government reopening and the easing of trade tensions boost market sentiment. The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, aluminum may further rise, casting aluminum alloy prices will follow aluminum prices, lead and zinc will run strongly in the short - term but with limited upside, tin will be in a tight - balance state and prices are expected to be strong, nickel should be observed in the short - term, and stainless steel will maintain a weak trend [2][3][6][10][13][15][17][20][30]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The US government's expected reopening and policy easing expectations pushed up precious metals, but the sharp drop in crude oil prices caused copper prices to fall back after rising. LME copper 3M contract rose 0.53% to $10,897/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 87,410 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory remained flat, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased. Spot premiums and discounts varied in different regions, and the import loss of domestic copper was about 700 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy View**: The expectation of the US government reopening and the easing of trade tensions boost market sentiment. Although some copper mines have resumed production, the supply of copper mines remains tight, and refined copper supply is expected to tighten marginally, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term copper prices may continue to fluctuate strongly. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 86,500 - 88,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 10,820 - 11,000 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to be strong but fell back after rising due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices. LME aluminum rose 0.23% to $2,886/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,950 yuan/ton. SHFE weighted contract positions increased significantly, and domestic inventories changed slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods fluctuated and declined, and the market receiving atmosphere was average [5]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas aluminum plant shutdowns or production cuts have raised supply concerns, and domestic inventories are still low. Against the background of the expected easing of global trade tensions and the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut, supply - side disturbances and the improvement of domestic export expectations may push aluminum prices higher. Pay attention to the support of domestic inventories for prices. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,820 - 22,200 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2,840 - 2,910 dollars/ton [6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices strengthened, with the main AD2601 contract rising 0.97% to 21,245 yuan/ton. Positions increased, and the volume of transactions expanded. The price difference between AL2601 and AD2601 contracts widened slightly. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 increased, and the inventory of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [9]. - **Strategy View**: The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy has strong support, while the demand - side performance is relatively average. Short - term prices are expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [10]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index rose 1.26% to 17,664 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading positions were 127,400 lots. LME lead 3S rose to $2,072.5/ton. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,325 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 24,700 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 226,700 tons [12]. - **Strategy View**: The smelting profit of primary and recycled lead is good, and the smelter's operating rate is relatively high, but the shortage of raw materials limits the output of lead ingots. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has bottomed out and rebounded but is still at a relatively low level. LME lead has continued to reduce inventory, and the price difference between months has strengthened. The tightening of the near - end and the shortage of raw materials push lead prices to run strongly. SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.05% to 22,704 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading positions were 227,400 lots. LME zinc 3S fell to $3,065.5/ton. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 22,610 yuan/ton, and the basis in different regions varied. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 70,900 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 35,300 tons. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly [14]. - **Strategy View**: The TC of zinc concentrates continued to decline, the profit of zinc smelting was under pressure, and the operating rate decreased marginally. The accumulation of domestic zinc ingot social inventory slowed down. Some short - position holders of SHFE zinc turned to net long positions. The registered warehouse receipts of LME zinc increased slightly, and the overseas structural risk eased. The decline in zinc smelting operations and some zinc ingot exports tightened the spot market, pushing SHFE zinc to run strongly in the short - term, but the upside of zinc prices in the surplus cycle is relatively limited [15]. Tin - **Market Information**: On November 12, 2025, the closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 298,050 yuan/ton, up 1.92%. The registered warehouse receipts of SHFE futures decreased by 126 tons. The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan rose to 279,000 yuan/ton. After the seasonal maintenance of large smelters in Yunnan ended, the operating rate of tin ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded but was still at a historical low due to the shortage of tin ore supply. Although the mining license in Myanmar's Wa State was approved, the tin ore export volume was still far below the normal level. The consumption in traditional fields was weak, but the long - term demand from emerging fields provided support for tin prices, and the operating rate of tin solder enterprises in October showed a slight recovery [16]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight - balance state, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices. The operating range of domestic main contract is 290,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and that of overseas LME tin is 37,000 - 39,000 dollars/ton [17][18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, nickel prices fluctuated and fell, with the closing price of SHFE nickel main contract at 118,710 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The spot premiums of various brands were stable. The price of nickel ore was stable and strong, while the price of nickel iron accelerated to decline [19]. - **Strategy View**: Recently, the inventory pressure of refined nickel is still significant, and the weak nickel iron price drags down nickel prices. If the inventory of refined nickel continues to increase, it is difficult for nickel prices to rise significantly. However, in the medium - and long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support nickel prices, and nickel prices may confirm the bottom earlier than the fundamentals. It is recommended to observe in the short - term. If the decline of nickel prices is sufficient (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established. The operating range of SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 85,843 yuan, down 0.23%. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.24%. The closing price of LC2601 contract was 86,580 yuan, up 0.05%. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 250 yuan [22]. - **Strategy View**: The demand has reached a new high, and the spot is strong. Lithium carbonate fluctuates at a high level. As the peak season is in the middle and late stages, the continuity of downstream raw material demand may be limited. If there is no continuous driving force, pay attention to the selling pressure at high levels. It is recommended to pay attention to the production schedule of lithium - battery materials in December and the changes in the equity market atmosphere. The operating range of LC2601 contract is 84,000 - 89,200 yuan/ton [23][24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On November 12, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.25% to 2,842 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading positions increased by 10,000 to 559,000 lots. The spot price in Shandong was 2,780 yuan/ton, at a discount of 7 yuan/ton to the 12 - contract. The FOB price in Australia remained at $320/ton, and the import loss was - 44 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts were 253,700 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The CIF prices of ore in Guinea and Australia remained stable [26]. - **Strategy View**: The shipment of overseas ore will gradually recover after the rainy season, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of subsequent production cuts is strengthened. Moreover, the overall non - ferrous sector is strong, so the cost - performance of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to observe in the short - term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,425 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The unilateral positions increased by 12,203 to 205,700 lots. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed slightly. The prices of raw materials such as high - nickel iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased. The futures inventory decreased by 1,566 to 72,091 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 1.034 million tons, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 1.90% [29]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel market continues to show a weak and fluctuating trend, mainly affected by the double pressure of oversupply and weak demand. Although the production schedule of steel mills in November has shrunk slightly, the overall output is still at a high level, and the market supply pressure has not been significantly relieved. Terminal purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the trading volume in the trading link is continuously low, and the market activity is not high. The inventory pressure accumulated in the early stage is gradually released, and the inventory - reduction speed slows down, further strengthening the market's wait - and - see sentiment. Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market warmed slightly yesterday, but the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the pace of production cuts. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and steel consumption may gradually recover. In the short term, affected by the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly shifted down, and the demand is still weak, so the prices will continue the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to turn around [2]. - For iron ore, due to environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profitability, the demand for iron ore continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains. In the short term, the price of iron ore will still run weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are still not ideal and lack major contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. If the commodity sentiment warms up and the black - metal sector strengthens, manganese ore may become the driving force for manganese silicon's market. If not, manganese silicon is expected to follow the black - metal sector. For silicon iron, its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions or drivers, and it has fluctuated with the cost of electricity recently, with a relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [10]. - For industrial silicon, its supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to whether the upstream futures and spot prices can remain firm [13][15]. - For glass, the market lacks strong support from the supply - demand fundamentals, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected that the price will remain weak in the short term. For soda ash, the industry supply is shrinking, the downstream demand is stable, but the price increase is limited by high inventory and weak demand. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate in the short term [18][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3038 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.429%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 95,493 tons, a decrease of 5,119 tons from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.868036 million lots, a decrease of 55,665 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3255 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.400%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 95,543 tons, a decrease of 1,485 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.311464 million lots, a decrease of 15,428 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Yesterday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market warmed slightly, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall; the demand for hot - rolled coils declined significantly, and it was difficult to absorb the production, resulting in an inverse - seasonal inventory build - up. In general, the steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the pace of production cuts. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. Coupled with the expected recovery of manufacturing demand, steel consumption may gradually recover in the future. In the short term, affected by the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly shifted down, and the demand is still weak, so the prices will continue the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to turn around [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 774.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.44% (+11.00), and the position changed by - 29,119 lots to 501,200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 924,900 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.44 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.13%. The Simandou Iron Ore Project was officially put into operation on November 11 [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume in the latest period continued to decline month - on - month. In the shipment end, the shipment volumes from Australia and Brazil continued to fall. Among the major mines, Vale and Rio Tinto contributed to the reduction. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - term arrival volume decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the average daily pig iron output in the latest period according to the Steel Union's statistics was 234,220 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons month - on - month. The environmental protection restrictions in Hebei had a significant impact, contributing a large part of the maintenance volume. The profitability rate of steel mills reached a new low this year, with 60% of steel mills below the break - even point, and some steel mills increased maintenance. In the inventory end, the port inventory increased at a faster pace, and the steel mill inventory increased month - on - month. The terminal data was weak. Fundamentally, affected by environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profitability, the pig iron output continued to decline, the demand for iron ore continued to weaken, and the inventory pressure remained. Macroscopically, the China - US summit in October and the Fed's interest rate meeting have both taken place. Overall, during the macro - vacuum period, the futures price trend is likely to follow the real - world logic. The fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the short - term price will still run weakly. Attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 12, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed down 0.03% at 5762 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5890 yuan/ton on the futures basis, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 128 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main silicon iron contract (SF601) closed up 0.04% at 5590 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures price. On the daily - line level, the manganese silicon futures price was still in the oscillation range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton, with no obvious directional trend. Currently, it is approaching the downward trend line since February this year. Attention should be paid to the support level around 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton. For silicon iron, the futures price was in the oscillation range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the support level around 5400 yuan/ton [7][8]. Strategy Viewpoints - In October, the market was affected by many macro - events. In November, the macro - environment entered a relatively quiet period, and the pricing of the black - metal sector returned to fundamentals. This week, the pig iron output continued to decline, and the profitability rate of steel mills fell below 40%. The steel demand remained weak, especially the demand for plates declined significantly and started to build inventory again. Affected by multiple factors, the commodity sentiment that just showed signs of warming cooled down again. The market is trying to conduct "negative feedback" trading in the black - metal sector, but this is considered a temporary shock and emotional release, with limited downward space. For the future of the black - metal sector, it is more cost - effective to look for callback positions to buy for a rebound rather than shorting. The height after the rebound depends on whether stimulus policies are introduced and their intensity. For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are not ideal and lack major contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. If the commodity sentiment warms up and the black - metal sector strengthens, manganese ore may become the driving force for manganese silicon's market. If not, manganese silicon is expected to follow the black - metal sector. For silicon iron, its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions or drivers, and it has fluctuated with the cost of electricity recently, with a relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9195 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.16% (+15). The weighted contract position changed by - 14,588 lots to 412,146 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 155 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of - 245 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Yesterday, the price of industrial silicon declined during the day and then rebounded in the afternoon. In the short term, the price fluctuated. In October, the production of industrial silicon continued to increase. Although the operating rate in the southwest production area decreased during the dry season, the production in the northwest increased, offsetting the production decline caused by the dry season. It is expected that the production in the southwest will continue to decline in November. If the operating rate in the northwest stabilizes, the supply pressure may be relieved. In terms of demand, the production plan of polysilicon in November decreased, and some leading enterprises started maintenance, mainly in the southwest. The demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon weakened. The production of organosilicon is expected to be stable. The absolute value of the visible inventory is still high, but the marginal change is limited, and the marginal pressure on the price is small. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the cost support such as electricity and coal - coke is stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 53,460 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.95% (+1530). The weighted contract position changed by +532 lots to 234,715 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to SMM was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.15 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day, with a basis of - 1310 yuan/ton for the main contract [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Fundamentally, in November, some polysilicon production capacities started maintenance, and the production plan decreased to 120,000 tons, mainly in the southwest. The production in the last two months is expected to decline. The operating rate of downstream silicon wafers is also expected to decline slightly, and the production is expected to decrease month - on - month compared with October. In the future, with a significant reduction in supply, the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The price of second - and third - tier silicon wafer enterprises has loosened, which has a negative impact on the upstream price, especially when there is no actual progress in the platform company and stockpiling. The futures price has adjusted periodically. Future attention should be paid to whether the upstream futures and spot prices can remain firm. Currently, both long and short news about stockpiling and the platform company can easily affect the futures price, causing rapid declines or increases. Attention should be paid to distinguishing the authenticity and using position control to manage risks [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton, down 1.50% (-16). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1110 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1140 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million cases, a decrease of 2.654 million cases (-4.03%) from the previous week. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 19,034 lots today, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 625 lots [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Currently, the float glass market lacks strong support from the supply - demand fundamentals. As the optimistic sentiment brought by the production line shutdown in Shahe is gradually digested by the market, downstream procurement has become more cautious, and the production - sales ratio in some areas has slowed down. Although the supply in some regions has shrunk due to environmental protection policies, the impact on the overall supply - demand structure is limited. At the same time, the cost support for the price is continuously weakening, and the production profit of enterprises is generally under pressure. The market sentiment is generally pessimistic. In general, it is expected that the price will remain weak in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1215 yuan/ton, down 0.90% (-11). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1164 yuan, a decrease of 12 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 12,200 tons (4.03%) from the previous week, including 899,600 tons of heavy soda ash, an increase of 13,200 tons, and 814,600 tons of light soda ash, a decrease of 1000 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 2689 lots today, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 19,653 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Currently, some soda ash enterprises are reducing production, and Chongqing Heyou Industrial plans to shut down soon. The overall industry supply is shrinking. The downstream demand is stable, but the market transactions are mainly for low - price goods. The order - receiving situation of soda ash manufacturers is generally good. Affected by the shortage of some light soda ash in the Middle East, the price of new orders has increased. However, due to the high inventory and weak demand, the price increase space is still limited. It is expected that the market will be influenced by both long and short factors in the short term, and the price may continue to fluctuate [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, the hot sectors are rotating rapidly, with technology growth remaining the market's main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, and the bond market is expected to recover in a volatile manner [6]. - For precious metals, in the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The gold - silver ratio still has room for further downward repair [7]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term; aluminum prices may rise further; zinc prices are short - term strong but with limited upside in the surplus cycle; lead prices are expected to be strong; nickel prices are recommended to be observed in the short term; tin prices are expected to be strong and volatile; lithium carbonate is in high - level oscillation; alumina is recommended to be observed; stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow aluminum prices [10][12][14][17][18][21][22][24][26][28]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term but may recover in the future; iron ore prices are expected to be weak in the short term; glass prices are expected to be weak; soda ash prices are expected to be volatile; for manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the short - term negative impact is a phased release, and it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities; for industrial silicon and polysilicon, industrial silicon prices are expected to be in consolidation, and polysilicon supply - demand may improve marginally [31][33][35][37][39][43][45]. - For energy and chemicals, for rubber, a neutral approach is recommended for short - term trading; for crude oil, a low - buying and high - selling strategy is maintained, and short - term observation is recommended; for methanol, it is recommended to observe; for urea, it is recommended to observe; for pure benzene and styrene, styrene prices may stop falling; for PVC, it is recommended to short on rallies; for ethylene glycol, it is recommended to short on rallies; for PTA, pay attention to the opportunity of PXN rising to drive PTA up; for p - xylene, pay attention to the mid - term valuation increase opportunity; for polyethylene, prices are expected to be in low - level oscillation; for polypropylene, prices may be supported in the first quarter of next year [50][52][53][54][57][59][61][63][65][68][70]. - For agricultural products, for live pigs, the first strategy is to do reverse spreads, and then wait to short on rallies; for eggs, prices are expected to be strong in the short term; for soybean and rapeseed meal, short - term follow - up with import cost increases, and mid - term short on rallies; for oils and fats, take a volatile view and turn to a long - term view if there are signs of production decline; for sugar, wait to short after the rebound weakens; for cotton, prices are expected to be in oscillation [73][76][78][81][83][86]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The National Energy Administration explores the construction of new water - wind - solar integration bases; the China Photovoltaic Industry Association refutes rumors; Haibo Sichuang signs a cooperation agreement with CATL; Morgan Stanley raises the target prices of Samsung and SK Hynix and predicts a rise in DRAM and NAND prices [2]. - **Strategy**: The market's main line is technology growth. The medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The Fed has a growing divergence on December rate cuts, and the US - EU trade tension affects European enterprises. The central bank conducted 1955 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1300 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to recover in a volatile manner in the fourth quarter [6]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose. The retirement of the Atlanta Fed President may bring a dovish tendency. The US government is likely to reopen, which is positive for precious metals [7]. - **Strategy**: Go long on silver on dips, and the gold - silver ratio has room for downward repair [7]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose slightly. LME copper inventory was flat, and domestic warehouse receipts increased. The spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference declined [9]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [10]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices were strong but pulled back. The weighted contract positions increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and the spot was at a discount [11]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices may rise further [12]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose slightly. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and the LME inventory and registered warehouse receipts increased slightly [13]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices are short - term strong but with limited upside in the surplus cycle [14]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory decreased continuously [16]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fell. The spot premium was stable, the nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price fell [18]. - **Strategy**: Observe in the short term, and consider going long if the price drops enough [18]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. The warehouse receipts decreased, the tin concentrate price rose, and the smelting plant's operating rate rebounded but remained low due to raw material shortages [19]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to be strong and volatile, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices were in high - level oscillation. The spot index declined slightly, and the futures contract price rose slightly [22]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the high - level selling pressure, and focus on December's lithium - battery material production and the equity market atmosphere [22]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose slightly. The positions increased, the basis was at a discount, and the overseas price was stable. The futures warehouse receipts were unchanged [23]. - **Strategy**: Observe in the short term, and focus on supply - side policies and other factors [24]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell. The positions increased, the spot price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly [25][26]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [26]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices rose. The positions increased, the trading volume increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to follow aluminum prices [28]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly. The registered warehouse receipts decreased, and the positions decreased [30]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term but may recover in the future [31]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. The positions decreased, and the spot price rose. The Simandou iron ore project was put into production [32]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and pay attention to the support at 750 - 760 yuan/ton [33]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices fell, and the inventory decreased; soda ash prices fell, and the inventory increased [34][36]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to be weak; soda ash prices are expected to be volatile [35][37]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices fell slightly, and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly. Both are in the oscillation range [38]. - **Strategy**: The short - term negative impact is a phased release, and it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities [39]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices rose. Industrial silicon production increased, and polysilicon production decreased in November [42][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be in consolidation; polysilicon supply - demand may improve marginally [43][45]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The 11 - month warehouse receipts are about to expire, and there are different views on the market [47][48]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral approach for short - term trading, and partially build positions for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread [50]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and related refined product prices rose [51]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a low - buying and high - selling strategy, and observe in the short term [52]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices rose. The supply pressure increased, and the demand decreased [53]. - **Strategy**: Observe [53]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [54]. - **Strategy**: Observe [54]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices were mixed. The supply pressure increased, and the demand decreased [55]. - **Strategy**: Styrene prices may stop falling [57]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The cost was stable, the supply increased, and the demand decreased [58]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies [59]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [60]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies [61]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [62]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of PXN rising to drive PTA up [63]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose. The supply increased, the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [64]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the mid - term valuation increase opportunity [65]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Polyethylene prices rose. The supply was stable, the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [66][67]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be in low - level oscillation [68]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Polypropylene prices rose. The supply was stable, the demand increased slightly, and the inventory increased [69]. - **Strategy**: Prices may be supported in the first quarter of next year [70]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices fell. The demand was weak, and the supply was high [72]. - **Strategy**: First, do reverse spreads, and then wait to short on rallies [73][74]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight declines. The supply was stable, and the demand was average [75]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term [76]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Domestic soybean inventory increased, and the meal price was stable [77]. - **Strategy**: Short - term follow - up with import cost increases, and mid - term short on rallies [78]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil prices were mixed. The production increased, and the export decreased; rapeseed production was stable [79][80]. - **Strategy**: Take a volatile view and turn to a long - term view if there are signs of production decline [81]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices were in oscillation. Brazilian sugar production increased, and the global supply surplus was revised down [82]. - **Strategy**: Wait to short after the rebound weakens [83]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices were in oscillation. The downstream demand was weak, and the domestic production was high [84][85]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be in oscillation [86].