能源化工日报 2026-02-10 2026/02/10 原油 【行情资讯】 INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.50 元/桶，跌幅 0.32%，报 464.20 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 14.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.50%，报 2794.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 40.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.22%，报 3248.00 元/吨。 欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比累库 0.62 百万桶至 11.36 百万桶，环比累库 5.75%； 柴油库存环比累库 0.38 百万桶至 15.99 百万桶，环比累库 2.44%；燃料油库存环比去库 0.79 百万桶至 6.54 百万桶，环比去库 10.82%；石脑油环比累库 0.32 百万桶至 5.87 百万桶，环 比累库 5.84%；航空煤油环比去库 0.58 百万桶至 7.01 百万桶，环比去库 7.68%；总体成品油 环比去库 0.05 百万桶至 46.78 百万桶，环比去库 0.12%。 徐绍祖 聚烯烃分析师 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 【策略观点】 当 ...

农产品早报 2026-02-10 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 组长、生鲜品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 周一郑州白糖期货价格小幅反弹，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5261 元/吨，较上个交易日上涨 33 元/吨，或 0.63%。现货方面，广西制糖集团报价 5280-5380 元/吨，较上个交易日上涨 10 元/吨。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 据 UNICA 数据显示，2025/26 榨季截至 1 月上半月，巴西中南部地区累计产糖 4023 万吨，同比增加 34.5 万吨。巴西航运机构 Williams 发布的数据显示，截至 2 月月 4 日当周，巴西港口等待装运食糖的船只数 量为 49 艘，此前一周为 54 艘。港口等待装运的食糖数量为 156.44 万吨，此前一周为 178.26 万吨。StoneX 预计 2025/26 榨季全球食糖市场将维持供应过剩，预估过剩量为 290 万吨。印度全国糖业合作联盟联合 会 ...

文字早评 2026/02/09 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 1、中国成功发射可重复使用试验航天器，机构预计 2030 全球商业航天市场规模达 8000 亿美元； 2、特斯拉，计划扩大太阳能电池产能，目标未来三年内实现每年 100 吉瓦； 3、美半导体行业协会，全球芯片销售额 2026 年再增长 26%，达 1 万亿美元； 4、伊朗空军目前处于"最高战备状态"，与美国的谈判中不会放弃铀浓缩和导弹。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：3.96%/1.30%/4.05%/4.20%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：3.45%/3.59%/9.04%/7.04%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：14.89%/7.61%/15.43%/11.44%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：1.37%/0.55%/0.83%/2.81%。 【策略观点】 近日美国货币政策预期分歧加剧，压制资本市场风险偏好，美股、贵金属波动加剧；国内临近春节流动 性阶段性收紧。中长期政策支持资本市场态度未变，策略上仍是逢低做多的思路。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周五，TL 主力合约收于 112.570 ，环比变化 0.36%；T 主力 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-02-09 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 环比减少 306 吨。主力合约持仓量为 191.53 万手，环比增加 67582 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3251 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 12 元/吨（-0.36%）。 当日注册仓单 220579 吨, 环比增加 21132 吨。主力合约持仓量为 148.46 万手，环比减少 10036 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元 /吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; ...

有色金属日报 2026-2-9 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 周五美股大涨，贵金属回升，铜价企稳反弹，伦铜 3M 收盘涨 1.59%至 13060 美元/吨，沪铜主力合 约收至 101490 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 2700 至 183275 吨，增量来自亚洲和北美仓库，注销仓单比 例下滑，Cas ...

贵金属日报 2026-02-09 贵金属 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 2.82 %，报 1114.50 元/克，沪银涨 3.51 %，报 19840.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 2.03 %， 报 4988.60 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 1.06 %，报 77.53 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.22 %，美元指数报 97.61 ； 黄金方面，当前行情维持高位震荡，市场普遍定价美联储 6 月降息预期，为金价提供了核心基 本面支撑；在美国就业数据表现偏弱的背景下，上周五博斯蒂克表态称，在高通胀持续的环境 下，需等到 4-5 月数据才能给出更明确的政策信号，并暗示美联储可能需要更多依托非官方数 据来评估经济形势。同时，前期集中抛售也为场外观望资金提供了逢低布局的机会，因此金价 中期趋势仍偏向震荡上行。 白银方面，当前 COMEX 白银总库存、注册仓单与非注册仓单同步下行，表明交易所库存变动并 非仓单内部结构转换，而是由现货实质性流出、产业需求与投资端实物吸纳共同驱动的净去库， 反映全球可交割白银供给持续偏紧。前期大幅下跌主要清理投机杠杆资金，当前产业盘与交割 盘占比明显提升，在全球交易所 ...

报告要点： 针对焦煤期货价格近期所表现出来的异动，我们认为可能存在以下两方面原因：一方面，近期 海外煤炭相关扰动较多，且氛围偏向于多头；另一方面，资金是逐利且追求相对确定性与性价 比，在贵金属、有色退潮之后，焦煤具备了资金寻找低估值品种做补涨的诉求。后续来看，至 少短期内，我们认为价格向上的催化并不强。但我们仍然认为焦煤或有望在 2026 年走出相对 顺畅的上涨行情。只是时间节点上，我们更偏向于安全生产月、消费旺季等因素叠加下的 6-10 月间，而非当下。 陈张滢 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 黑色金属研究 | 焦煤 焦煤：有色退潮后的补涨 专题报告 2026-02-09 焦煤：有色退潮后的补涨 近期，黄金、白银、铜、铝等品种在数天内经历暴涨暴跌。期间，相关情绪蔓延至各板块品种， 商品市场出现剧烈波动，尚不稳固的商品多头势头在有色"狂欢"潮水退去后再度陷入阶段性 震荡，并且在白银动辄十几个点波动、原油在"美伊谈判"摇摆不定下上下抖动中频繁日内大 幅波动。 但在这样的商品环境下，我们观测到焦煤盘面价格近期时常出 ...

能源化工日报 2026-02-09 2026/02/09 原油 【行情资讯】 能源化工组 张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 徐绍祖 聚烯烃分析师 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 马桂炎（联系人） 聚酯分析师 从业资格号：F03136381 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 严梓桑（联系人） 油品分析师 从业资格号：F03149203 15805136842 我们认为当前甲醇已经计价相当部分的利空因子，海外地缘短期仍有波动概率，前期布空止盈， 短期观望为主。 yanzs@wkqh.cn 2026/02/09 尿素 【行情资讯】 区域现货涨跌：山东变动 10 元/吨，河南变动 0 元/吨，河北变动 0 元/吨，湖北变动 0 元/吨， 江苏变动 10 元/吨，山西变动 0 元/吨，东北变动 0 元/吨，总体基差报-16 元/吨。 主力期货涨跌：主力合约变动-2 元/吨，报 1776 元/吨。 【策略观点】 我 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes the sugar - cane harvest in February and the negative impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. In China, as the supply of imported sugar decreases and sugar prices reach a low level, the downward space in the short - term is limited, so it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - For cotton, in the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuate widely at a high level due to the significant fluctuations in the commodity market. In the long - term, with the reduction of the planting area in the new season and the positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival [9]. - For protein meal, the expectation of China's increased purchase of US soybeans drives up the price of US soybeans. For China, although the long - term supply pressure increases, the import cost rises as the price of US soybeans goes up. It is expected that the price of protein meal will continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. - For oils and fats, driven by biodiesel policies in various countries, the increase in consumption of oils and fats this year is greater than the production growth rate, so the medium - term outlook for oil prices is positive. In the short - term, due to the significant fluctuations in the commodity market, oil prices fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long [17]. - For eggs, during the inventory accumulation period around the Spring Festival, with weak demand and high inventory, the spot price is likely to fall. The near - month contract may still need to squeeze out the premium. For the far - end, the logic of capacity reduction will be re - traded after the spot price turns down, but the implementation path is still uncertain [19]. - For pigs, the large basic supply and the current accumulation of live - pig inventory make the spot and near - term expectations pessimistic. The near - term prices are still under pressure, and the strategy is to short on rebounds. For the long - term, although the reduction in production capacity has been revised down, there are still expectations of a high fat - to - standard price difference, seasonal support, and recovery in consumer demand. Pay attention to the support at lower levels after the price follows the decline [22]. 3. Summary by Categories Sugar - **Market Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,228 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day. The quoted price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,270 - 5,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. As of the week of February 4, the number of vessels waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 49, down from 54 in the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5644 million tons, down from 1.7826 million tons in the previous week. StoneX expects a global sugar surplus of 2.9 million tons in the 2025/26 season. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's total sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In December, China produced 2.63 million tons of sugar, and the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 720,000 tons; the sugar sales in December were 1.22 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales in the 2025/26 season were 1.57 million tons; the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 31.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 25.56 percentage points; the industrial inventory was 2.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [3][4]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the price to rebound after the negative factors are digested, and stay on the sidelines for now [5]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,580 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.21% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 16,025 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. As of the week of January 30, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, down 50,000 tons from the previous week. From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons; of which, the exports to China were 8,800 tons in that week, and the cumulative exports to China were 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons. In January, the USDA predicted that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season would be 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous season. The predicted US production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December forecast, with the export forecast unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. Brazil's production forecast remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; India's production was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's total cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [7][8]. - **Strategy**: Focus on low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival, as there is room for price increase in the long - term [9]. Protein Meal - **Market Information**: On Friday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,735 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,239 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was 3,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was 2,460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Trump said that China agreed to increase the purchase of US soybeans this season from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. StoneX's latest forecast shows that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record high of 181 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the January forecast and a year - on - year increase of 13 million tons. As of January 31, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 99.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.3 percentage points higher than the five - year average; the soybean harvesting rate was 11.4%, 3.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.4 percentage points lower than the five - year average. From January 23 to January 30, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.82 million tons, an increase of 350,000 tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 6.71 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week; the sample oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week [11][12]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: On Friday, the oils and fats futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,102 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,026 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,144 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,650 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,080 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons from the previous month, exports were 1.42 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous month, and the inventory was 2.89 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The US Treasury Department issued the latest guidance on biofuel tax credits, which was well - received by the market. The shipping survey agencies ITS and AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in January increased by 14.9% and 17.9% respectively from the previous month. From January 23 to January 30, the inventory of the three major oils and fats in domestic samples decreased slightly by 60,000 tons to 1.89 million tons [15][16]. - **Strategy**: Go long after a pullback as the medium - term outlook is positive [17]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mainly stable with slight weakness in some areas. Before the Spring Festival, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan was not reported, the price in Xinji dropped 0.09 yuan to 2.8 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao dropped 0.07 yuan to 2.89 yuan/jin, the price in Xishui remained at 3.38 yuan/jin, and the price in Dongguan dropped 0.05 yuan to 3.23 yuan/jin. Market demand will gradually weaken, and egg prices will generally decline. Considering the limited decrease in supply and the inventory accumulation during the festival, egg prices may fall below the cost after the festival [18]. - **Strategy**: Short the near - month contract and be cautious about the far - end contract [19]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices continued to decline. The average price in Henan dropped 0.14 yuan to 12.14 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.4 yuan to 11.14 yuan/kg. The improvement in demand was limited, and the enthusiasm of farmers for selling pigs was high. The overall supply was abundant, and pig prices were under pressure. It is expected that pig prices in the north may be stronger and stable in the south today [21]. - **Strategy**: Short on rebounds in the near - term and pay attention to the support at lower levels in the long - term [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of China increasing its procurement of US soybeans has driven up the price of US soybeans. For the domestic market, on one hand, there is an increasing pressure of long - term supply. On the other hand, as the price of US soybeans rises, the import cost increases. It is expected that the price of protein meal will continue to fluctuate in the short term [9][10][11] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: Trump stated that China agreed to increase the purchase of US soybeans this season from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. From January 22 to January 29, the US exported 440,000 tons of soybeans, with the cumulative export of 34.29 million tons this year, a year - on - year decrease of 8.27 million tons. Among them, the export to China was 230,000 tons that week, and the cumulative export to China this year was 9.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.33 million tons. StoneX estimated that the soybean output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season would reach a record high of 181 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the January estimate and 13 million tons more than the previous year. As of January 31, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 99.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.3 percentage points higher than the five - year average; the soybean harvesting rate was 11.4%, 3.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.4 percentage points lower than the five - year average. From January 23 to January 30, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.82 million tons, an increase of 350,000 tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 6.71 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week; the sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The USDA predicted in January that the global soybean output in the 2025/26 season would be 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December prediction and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous year [10] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The multi - empty scores of various indicators such as the price difference between US soybeans 3 - 5, soybean import crushing profit, rapeseed import cost, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal were analyzed. It was expected that the price of protein meal would continue to fluctuate in the short term [11] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies recommended waiting and seeing [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price**: Provided the historical price trends of soybean meal spot in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal spot in Huangpu, Guangdong from 2022 to 2026 [21][22] - **Basis of the Main Contract**: Presented the historical basis trends of the soybean meal May contract and the rapeseed meal May contract from 2022 to 2026 [24][25] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: Showed the historical spread trends between the soybean meal May - September contracts and the rapeseed meal May - September contracts from 2205/2209 to 2605/2609 [27][28] - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Displayed the historical spread trends between the soybean meal May - rapeseed meal May contracts and the soybean meal September - rapeseed meal September contracts from 2022 to 2026 [30][31] 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Included the planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - quality rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [36][37][39] - **Weather Conditions**: Compared the precipitation of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina with the same period of the year and summarized the precipitation and temperature anomalies in the main soybean - producing areas as of February 4 [42][44][45] - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Showed the current and next - year market - year cumulative signing volumes of US soybeans, the current and next - year market - year export volumes to China, and China's monthly import volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds from 2021 to 2025 [53][54][56] - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Presented the historical crushing volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [62][63] - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation**: Displayed the monthly export volumes and export volumes to China of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2025, as well as the weekly and cumulative shipping volumes to China of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from 2022 to 2026 [65][66][68] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory Situation**: Showed the historical inventory trends of soybean ports and major oil mill rapeseeds from 2022 to 2026 [76][77] - **Protein Meal Inventory Situation**: Presented the historical inventory trends of coastal major oil mill soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [79][80] - **Protein Meal Pressing Profit**: Displayed the historical pressing profit trends of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 [82][83] 3.5 Demand Side - **Protein Meal Consumption**: Showed the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal from 2022 to 2026 [86] - **Breeding Profit**: Presented the historical profit trends of self - breeding and self - raising pigs per head and white - feather broiler breeding from 2022 to 2026 [88][89]