1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "wait - and - see" rating for the sugar industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current raw sugar price has fallen below the support level of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. There is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar cane used for sugar production in the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season after April this year. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. In the domestic market, the supply of imported sugar sources is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price drops to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited, so it is recommended to wait and see for now [9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry News**: - As of the week of February 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 49, down from 54 the previous week. The amount of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5644 million tons, down from 1.7826 million tons the previous week [9] - StoneX expects the global sugar market to remain in surplus in the 2025/26 crushing season, with an estimated surplus of 2.9 million tons [9] - As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season has reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8% [9] - In the second half of December 2025, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 2.171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. Sugar production was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year [9] - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons [9] - In December, the national sugar production was 2.63 million tons. In the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 720,000 tons. In December, the sugar sales volume was 1.22 million tons. In the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar sales volume was 1.57 million tons. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 31.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 25.56 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 2.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [9] - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: Wait and see for now. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. In the domestic market, the supply of imported sugar sources is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price drops to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited [9] - **Fundamental Assessment**: - The basis is 82 yuan/ton, the monthly spread of Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 is - 16 yuan/ton, the production - sales area spread is - 90 yuan/ton, the raw - white sugar spread is 90 US dollars/ton, the sugar - alcohol spread is - 3.09 cents/pound. The cost of the March contract within the quota is 4,007 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 4,971 yuan/ton [10] - The short - term recommendation is to wait and see [10] - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies recommend waiting and seeing [11] 3.2 Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: The report provides the price trend chart of first - grade white granulated sugar in Nanning, Guangxi and the basis chart of Nanning spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract [17][18] - **Spot - to - Spot Spread**: It includes the processing sugar basis, production - sales area spread, Zhengzhou sugar 9 - 1 spread, and Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 spread charts [20][21][23] - **Domestic - Foreign Spread**: It shows the charts of out - of - quota spot import profit and out - of - quota on - disk import profit [24][25] - **Raw Sugar Monthly Spread**: It provides the spread charts of raw sugar 5 - 7, raw sugar 3 - 5, London white sugar 3 - 5, and London white sugar 5 - 8 [26][27][30] - **Raw - White Sugar Spread**: It shows the spread charts of raw - white sugar 5 - 5 and raw - white sugar 3 - 3 [32][33] - **Raw Sugar Spot Premium and Discount**: It provides the premium and discount charts of Brazilian and Thai raw sugar [34][35] - **Sugar - Alcohol Ratio Fluctuation**: It shows the chart of the production advantage of raw sugar compared with Brazilian hydrous ethanol and the Brazilian oil - alcohol ratio chart [37][38] 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **National Production**: The report provides the monthly and cumulative sugar production charts in China [42][43] - **Sugar Imports**: It includes the monthly and annual cumulative sugar import volume charts, as well as the monthly and annual cumulative import volume charts of syrup and premixed powder [45][46][48] - **National Sales Volume**: It provides the monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress charts [50][51] - **National Industrial Inventory**: It shows the monthly industrial inventory and Guangxi three - party warehouse inventory charts [53][54] 3.4 International Market Situation - **Production in Central - Southern Brazil**: It provides the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production volume, cumulative sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio, and cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume charts in central - southern Brazil [58][59][61] - **India's Production**: It shows the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production volume charts in India [63][64] - **Thailand's Production**: It provides the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production volume charts in Thailand [66][67] - **Brazil's Shipment Volume**: It shows the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil and the sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports [69][70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The repeated negotiations between the US and Iran have led to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the energy - chemical sector has followed suit. The BZN spread has increased, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants has risen, with the overall valuation being moderately high. The supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, while that of styrene is relatively tight. As the seasonal off - season has arrived, the downstream "Three S" operating rates are oscillating at a low level. Under the reality of weak supply and demand, the EB - BZ spread is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to take profits on the EB - BZ spread when the price is high [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Policy**: Repeated US - Iran negotiations have caused significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the energy - chemical sector has followed [11]. - **Valuation**: Styrene's monthly increase shows the order of spot > futures > cost. The basis has weakened, the BZN spread has strengthened, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants has strengthened [11]. - **Cost**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China has increased by 15.28%, the closing price of the active pure benzene contract has increased by 12.77%, and the basis has increased by 116 yuan/ton. The pure benzene operating rate has dropped to the lowest level in the same period. In November, the domestic pure benzene import volume was 5.3716 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.87% and a year - on - year increase of 3.78%, mainly from the Middle East [11]. - **Supply**: The EB capacity utilization rate is 69.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.84%, and a decrease of 12.41% compared with the five - year average. According to the production plan, the production pressure in the fourth quarter has increased month - on - month, and the supply side may face pressure [11]. - **Import and Export**: Last month, the EB import volume was 311,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.67% and a year - on - year increase of 65.68% [11]. - **Demand**: The weighted operating rate of the downstream "Three S" is 40.79%, a month - on - month increase of 0.57%. The PS operating rate is 55.20%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% but a year - on - year increase of 10.40%. The EPS operating rate is 56.24%, a month - on - month increase of 5.59% and a year - on - year increase of 807.70%. The ABS operating rate is 64.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.54%. In the seasonal off - season and in a low - profit environment, the operating rates are lower than in previous years [11]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant EB inventory is 157,800 tons, a month - on - month de - stocking of 2.79% and a year - on - year de - stocking of 38.33%. The EB inventory at Jiangsu ports is 108,600 tons, a month - on - month de - stocking of 17.91% and a year - on - year de - stocking of 25.62%. The pure benzene port inventory has decreased from a high level, and the styrene port inventory has also decreased [12]. - **Next - Month Forecast**: The reference oscillation range for styrene (EB2603) is 7,600 - 8,000 yuan/ton, and for pure benzene (BZ2603) is 6,000 - 6,300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Recommended Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits on the EB - BZ spread when the price is high [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market The report provides multiple charts showing the historical data of styrene spot price, futures contract price, basis, trading volume, open interest, and various spreads from 2022 to 2026, including the spot price, main contract price, basis, active contract trading volume, open interest, and spreads between different contracts (such as consecutive 1 - consecutive 2, 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1) [15][17][19]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Charts show the historical data of pure benzene port inventory, styrene port inventory, and styrene factory inventory from 2022 to 2026 [34][36][38]. - **Profit**: The report presents the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation process and POSM process, the production process proportion of styrene (ethylbenzene dehydrogenation method: 85%, PO/SM co - production method: 12%, C8 extraction method: 3%), and the capacity proportion of the top ten styrene production enterprises (44%) [40][42][45]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Price Spread**: The US gasoline crack spread has fallen from a high level, and the US - South Korea pure benzene price spread may decline. Charts show the historical data of pure benzene price spreads (China - South Korea, US - South Korea), BZN spread, and pure benzene import profit from various years [50][52][54]. - **Operating Rate**: The pure benzene operating rate has rebounded from the bottom. Charts show the historical data of pure benzene operating rate, hydrogenated pure benzene operating rate, and other related product operating rates and production profits (such as Northeast Asian ethylene, naphtha crack spread, phenol production profit and operating rate, aniline production profit and operating rate, caprolactam production profit and operating rate, adipic acid production profit and operating rate) [58][62][66]. - **Inventory**: The caprolactam factory inventory has significantly decreased. Charts show the historical data of phenol inventory at Jiangyin Port and caprolactam in - plant inventory [78][79]. - **Import and Downstream Demand**: The report shows the monthly import volume of pure benzene and the proportion of downstream demand for pure benzene (styrene: 41%, caprolactam: 18%, phenol: 16%, aniline: 13%, adipic acid: 7%, others: 5%) [84][80]. 3.5 Supply Side The styrene production volume has been oscillating at a low level. Charts show the historical data of styrene weekly operating rate, import volume, daily production volume, and export volume [89][90]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Profit**: The profits of EPS and PS are at a low level in the same period. Charts show the operating rates and production profits of EPS and PS [99][103][105]. - **ABS**: The ABS operating rate has been oscillating at the bottom along with profit. Charts show the profit, operating rate, and inventory of ABS [108][109][116]. - **Downstream Demand Proportion**: The report shows the proportion of styrene downstream demand (PS: 35%, used in food packaging, daily necessities, electronic casings, etc.; EPS: 21%, used in building insulation materials, shock - proof packaging; ABS: 15%, used in household appliance casings, auto parts, toys) [118]. - **Household Appliance Data**: Charts show the monthly sales volume, production volume, inventory, and year - on - year growth rate of household refrigerators, as well as the domestic sales volume, production volume, inventory, and year - on - year growth rate of washing machines [119][123][128].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the stainless - steel market fluctuations intensified significantly. Driven by the continuous fermentation of the RKAB expectation in Indonesia and the tight spot supply, the futures and spot prices rose synchronously, showing a high - level volatile trend. Towards the end of the month, the significant correction of precious metal prices led to the overall weakness of the non - ferrous metal sector and affected market sentiment. From the supply side, high ferronickel prices at the beginning of the month curbed steel mills' purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in actual production lower than planned. Although raw material supply recovered at the end of the month, under the influence of steel mills' price - limit policies, agents' shipment rhythms generally slowed down. In terms of demand, restricted by the pre - Spring Festival seasonal off - season, the overall market purchasing willingness was weak, with limited acceptance of high - priced resources. Traders mostly actively sold goods to reduce inventory, mainly executed previous orders, and had a weak willingness to actively stock up. In February, steel mills will cut production collectively, and the market generally believes that subsequent supply will gradually tighten, with relatively controllable short - term supply pressure. Overall, the stainless - steel fundamentals are still supported, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged, with the reference range of the main contract being 13,000 - 15,000 yuan/ton [11][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Key Points Summary**: On February 06, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.41%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.23%. The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract on Friday afternoon was 13,810 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.31%. In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in December was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the 300 - series cold - rolled output in December was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96%. From January to December 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 881.0137 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 93.9963 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. In December, the year - on - year changes of the monthly output of refrigerators/household freezers/washing machines/air conditioners were 7/5.7/ - 9.6/ - 4.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in December was 18.2%. The total social inventory of stainless steel was 914,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29%; on January 30, the futures warehouse receipt inventory was 43,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,309 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 140,200/632,000/192,700 tons respectively, among which the 300 - series inventory increased by 2.49% month - on - month; last week, the floating quantity of stainless - steel at sea was 41,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41.31%, and the unloading quantity was 93,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.86%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 110 yuan/nickel, and iron mills in Fujian were currently making a profit of 57 yuan/nickel [11] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was 140 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 267 yuan/ton. The supply side had a production volume of 2.8284 million tons, the demand side had a volume of 3.108 million tons, and the inventory was 914,200 tons. The long - short scores were 0, +1, 0, 0, +1 respectively. The simple evaluation was neutral, steel mills' production was lower than expected, neutral, neutral, and continuous de - stocking. The conclusion was consistent with the core viewpoints [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - On February 05, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.41%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.23%. The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract on Friday afternoon was 13,810 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.31%. The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 10 yuan (+526) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about 140 yuan (+496) higher than the main contract. The trading volume of the contract was 230,210 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 21.55%. In terms of the monthly spread, the spread between consecutive 1 and consecutive 2 was reported at - 85 (+5), and the spread between consecutive 1 and consecutive 3 was reported at - 70 (+40) [16][19][22] 3.3 Supply Side - In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in December was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the 300 - series cold - rolled output in December was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96%. It was estimated that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in December was 420,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 121,400 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of 39.16%. In December, the net export volume of stainless steel was 340,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.96% and a year - on - year increase of 5.13%; the cumulative net export from January to December was 3.1937 million tons, an increase of 8.06% compared with the same period last year [26][29][32] 3.4 Demand Side - From January to December 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 881.0137 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 93.9963 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. In December, the year - on - year changes of the monthly output of refrigerators/household freezers/washing machines/air conditioners were 7/5.7/ - 9.6/ - 4.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in December was 18.2%. In December, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 133,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.32%; in December, the automobile sales volume was 3.2722 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.20% [39][42][45] 3.5 Inventory - The total social inventory of stainless steel was 914,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29%; on January 30, the futures warehouse receipt inventory was 43,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,309 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 140,200/632,000/192,700 tons respectively, among which the 300 - series inventory increased by 2.49% month - on - month; last week, the floating quantity of stainless - steel at sea was 41,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41.31%, and the unloading quantity was 93,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.86% [49][52] 3.6 Cost Side - In December, the nickel ore import volume was 1.9928 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40.27% and a year - on - year increase of 31.13%. Currently, the quotation of 1.5% nickel ore was 57.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory was 11.7234 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.58%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 110 yuan/nickel, and iron mills in Fujian were currently making a profit of 57 yuan/nickel. Last week, the chromium ore quotation was 52.5 yuan per dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan per dry ton; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,100 yuan per 50 - base ton, a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan per 50 - base ton. In terms of output, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in November was 881,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.84%. The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line was 267 yuan/ton, with a profit margin of 1.92% [56][59][65]

预期与现实博弈， PVC震荡向上 PVC月报 2026/02/06 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 从业资格号：F03136381 徐绍祖（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2550元/吨，月同比上涨225元/吨；山东电石价格报2930元/吨，月同比上涨150元/吨；兰炭陕西中料785元/吨， 月同比下跌35元/吨。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润重新下滑至历史低位，乙烯制利润大幅回升，综合估值压力较小。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率79.3%，月同比上升0.6%；其中电石法80.9%，月同比上升2.5%；乙烯法75.5%，月同比下降3.8%。上月检修量仍然较小， 平均产能利用率持稳，供应压力仍然较大。 ◆ 需求：出口方面，十二月出口量小幅回升，出口退税政策计划4月1日取消，短期进入抢出口阶段，预期出口量大幅上升；三大下游开工季节 性下滑，管材 ...

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 供需双降，工业硅关注大厂开工情 况，多晶硅偏弱震荡，观望为主 工业硅&多晶硅月报 从业资格号：F03133967 2026/02/06 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 多晶硅 02 期现市场 05 有机硅 03 工业硅 06 硅铝合金及出口 产业链示意图 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结：工业硅 ◆ 截至2026/1/30，华东地区553#（不通氧）工业硅现货报价9200元/吨，月环比持平；421#工业硅现货报价9650元/吨，折盘面价8850元/吨， 月环比持平。 ◆ 成本：据百川盈孚数据，据百川盈孚数据，1月末调研工业硅主产区成本中，新疆平均成本报8487.50元/吨（在产企业综合成本，下同）； 云南地区报9718.00元/吨；内蒙地区报8960.00元/吨。 ◆ 供给：2026年1月，百川盈孚口径下工业硅产量32.01万吨，环比-3.58万吨，同比+2.14万吨或+7.18%。 ◆ 需求： SMM口径下1月多晶硅产量1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The economic recovery's internal driving force remains unstable, with the January official manufacturing PMI falling below expectations and the economy's upward foundation being unsteady. There is still room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, but the timing of overall easing may be postponed after structural interest rate cuts. The bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend, and the long - term strategy is to buy on the dips [11][13][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy**: In January, the official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3, lower than expected. Production and demand declined, and enterprise profit margins may be under pressure. The export orders decreased, large enterprises were in the expansion range, and small and medium - sized enterprises were in the contraction range. The service industry in the non - manufacturing sector declined due to the off - season, and the construction industry's prosperity significantly dropped. Overseas, the US liquidity improved, and the market postponed the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut to mid - year. The central bank held a meeting to develop various types of finance and support key areas. The RatingDog manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.3, maintaining an expansion trend. The Australian central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points [11] - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 10055 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 8000 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases this week, with 17615 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 7000 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 6560 billion yuan. The DR007 rate closed at 1.48% [13] - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.82%, up 0.59 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury bond yield was 2.27%, down 1.25 BP week - on - week; the latest 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.21%, down 5.00 BP week - on - week [13] - **Summary**: The January official PMI data showed a decline in both supply and demand, and the economic recovery's momentum needs to be observed. There is still room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the central bank will maintain a stable capital situation. The bond market's allocation power is strong, but the market is expected to continue to fluctuate [13] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The economic fundamentals need further improvement, and the net basis is low. The bond market's downward adjustment space is limited, and the long - term strategy is to buy on the dips [14] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: The recommended strategy is to buy on the dips for a 6 - month period, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1, driven by loose monetary policy and difficult credit improvement [15] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **T Contract**: Presented the closing price, annualized premium, settlement price, and net basis trends of the T - contract's current - quarter and main contracts [18] - **TL Contract**: Showed the closing price, annualized premium, settlement price, and net basis trends of the TL - contract's current - quarter and main contracts [23] - **TF Contract**: Displayed the closing price, annualized premium, settlement price, and net basis trends of the TF - contract's current - quarter and main contracts [26] - **TS Contract**: Demonstrated the closing price, annualized premium, settlement price, and net basis trends of the TS - contract's current - quarter and main contracts [28] - **TS and TF Positions**: Presented the closing price and position volume trends of the TS and TF contracts [33] - **T and TL Positions**: Showed the closing price and position volume trends of the T and TL contracts [38] 3.3 Main Economic Data 3.3.1 Domestic Economy - **GDP and PMI**: In Q3, 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, exceeding expectations. In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value, and the service industry PMI was 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points [43] - **Manufacturing PMI Sub - items**: In January 2026, the manufacturing supply and demand weakened. The production index decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, and new orders decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2 [44][49] - **Price Index**: In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year. The month - on - month CPI, core CPI, and PPI all increased by 0.2% [52] - **Export Data**: In December 2025, China's export data was stronger than expected, with exports increasing by 6.5% year - on - year and imports increasing by 5.7% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 30.0% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a high growth rate [55] - **Industrial Added Value and Retail Sales**: In December 2025, the industrial added - value growth rate was 5.2% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, down 0.4 percentage points [58] - **Fixed - Asset Investment and Real Estate**: From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, and the real estate investment growth rate was - 17.2%. In December 2025, the month - on - month price of second - hand housing in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.7%, and the year - on - year price was - 6.1% [62] - **Real Estate Construction and Sales**: In December 2025, the cumulative value of new housing starts was 587700,000 square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 20.4%. The cumulative value of new housing construction was 6598900,000 square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The cumulative year - on - year data of the completion end decreased by 18.16%, and the new - home sales data in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was weak [65][68] 3.3.2 Foreign Economy - **US Economy**: In Q3 2025, the US GDP at current prices was 3109.5 billion US dollars, with an actual year - on - year growth rate of 2.33% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 4.30%. In December 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year and 0.0% month - on - month. In November 2025, the US durable goods orders were 323.7 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 12.29%. In December 2025, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%. In January 2026, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 53.8 [71][74][77] - **EU Economy**: In Q3 2025, the EU GDP increased by 1.4% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter [77] - **Eurozone Economy**: In December 2025, the Eurozone CPI increased by 2% year - on - year. In January 2026, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4, and the service industry PMI was 51.9 [80] 3.4 Liquidity - **Money Supply and Social Financing**: In December 2025, the M1 growth rate was 3.8%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.5%. The M1 growth rate declined due to the base effect. The social financing increment was 2.21 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 645.7 billion yuan. The new RMB loans were 9700 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 800 billion yuan [85] - **Social Financing Sub - items**: In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of government bonds in social financing slowed down, and the financing of the real - economy sector was stable. The social financing growth rate of the household and enterprise sectors was 6.1%, and the government bond growth rate was 17.1% [88] - **MLF and Reverse Repurchases**: In January 2026, the MLF balance was 6950 billion yuan, with a net MLF injection of 700 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 10055 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 8000 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases, with 17615 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 7000 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 6560 billion yuan. The DR007 rate closed at 1.48% [91] 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rate Changes**: Provided the latest rates, daily, weekly, and monthly changes of various types of interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [94] - **Interest Rate Trends**: Presented the trends of Treasury bond yields, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, and the bond yields of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy [98][99][103] - **Fed Target Rate and Exchange Rates**: Showed the trends of the Fed's target rate, the USD/RMB exchange rate, and the US dollar index [105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the profitability of steel mills was still in a low - range, but slightly improved compared to the previous period. Steel prices maintained a low - level volatile operation. The cost of raw materials remained resilient, and the immediate profit repair space for steel mills was limited. The production side continued to be cautious. The monthly profit rate of steel mills was 39.39%, slightly up from the previous month, but still in the low - profit range [11]. - In terms of supply, in January 2026, the output of rebar was 9.6894 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 180,000 tons (+1.94%) and a month - on - month increase of 31.98%. The output of hot - rolled coils was 15.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 398,900 tons (-2.54%) and a month - on - month increase of 26.85%. The daily average output of hot metal was 2.2839 million tons, remaining at a moderately low level. Affected by the approaching Spring Festival and limited profit repair, steel mills' production was still cautious, but due to the low base in the previous period, the output of finished products increased month - on - month. The output of rebar increased against the seasonal trend, and the output of plates was relatively neutral, with the overall supply pressure easing [11]. - Regarding demand, in January 2026, the apparent consumption of rebar was 9.2766 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5974 million tons (+20.80%) and a month - on - month increase of 11.58%. The apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 15.5464 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 630,000 tons (+4.24%) and a month - on - month increase of 26.17%. Overall, the demand side improved significantly year - on - year and showed seasonal repair characteristics month - on - month. The demand for rebar increased temporarily driven by the low base and concentrated project rush, but the overall real - estate investment was still weak, restricting the sustainability of demand. The demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively stable, with a slight year - on - year increase supported by the resilience of the manufacturing industry and exports, without obvious weakening [11]. - In terms of inventory, as of the end of January 2026, the inventory of rebar was 4.7553 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.776 million tons. The inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.5558 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 330,000 tons (-8.50%). Structurally, the inventory of building materials decreased significantly year - on - year, and the inventory level of plates also decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, with the overall inventory pressure continuing to ease. As the Spring Festival approached, short - term demand might weaken again, and the inventory reduction rhythm might slow down, but the low - inventory pattern year - on - year supported prices [11]. - Currently, the black - series is in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. On the one hand, the domestic policy tone remains marginally loose, providing support for demand expectations. On the other hand, the uncertainty of overseas monetary policy has increased, and market volatility has intensified. In the short term, the black - series will mainly operate in a range - bound manner, and the trend opportunities are not yet clear. Attention should be paid to inventory changes around the Spring Festival, the recovery rhythm of plate demand, and the marginal changes in "dual - carbon" related policies [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: In January 2026, the profitability of steel mills was in a low - range but slightly improved. Steel prices were volatile at a low level, and the cost of raw materials was resilient, limiting the profit repair space. The monthly profit rate of steel mills was 39.39%, still in the low - profit range [11]. - **Supply**: Rebar output increased year - on - year and month - on - month, while hot - rolled coil output decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The daily average output of hot metal was at a moderately low level. Steel mills' production was cautious, but the output of finished products increased month - on - month due to the low base [11]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The demand for rebar increased temporarily, but real - estate investment restricted its sustainability. The demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively stable [11]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased year - on - year. The inventory of building materials decreased significantly, and the inventory of plates also decreased. As the Spring Festival approached, short - term demand might weaken, and the inventory reduction rhythm might slow down [11]. - **Summary**: The black - series is in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it will operate in a range - bound manner, and attention should be paid to inventory changes, plate demand recovery, and "dual - carbon" policies [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts show the price trends, trading volumes, basis, and price differences of rebar, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and other steel products in different regions and contract months, as well as the price differences between different regions and different steel products [23][25][28]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: Charts show the盘面 profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, and the profit of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces [78][81][83]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coils, including total inventory, factory inventory, and social inventory, as well as the inventory of steel billets and other related products [91][94][104]. 3.4 Cost End - Charts show the ratios of rebar to iron ore and coke futures, daily average hot metal and crude steel output, the price of billets, the price difference between rebar and billets, the price of scrap steel, and the consumption of scrap steel [110][113][115]. 3.5 Supply End - Charts show the output, cumulative year - on - year output, and capacity utilization rate of rebar and hot - rolled coils [130][132][135]. 3.6 Demand and Import - Export - **Demand**: Charts show the apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the production and export volume of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners [142][145][149]. - **Import - Export**: Charts show the monthly import and export volume of steel, rebar, and plates [155][157][160].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - to - long - term, the report maintains the view that the long - position trend of commodities will continue. However, in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise has dragged down the sentiment of the non - ferrous and commodity long - positions, which may still suppress the overall market atmosphere [20]. - The weekly static supply - demand structure of coking coal has become looser due to the gradual recovery of supply after the New Year's Day, the high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance, and the slow resumption of hot metal production. Coke also shows a relatively loose situation. Although downstream players are still replenishing inventory, the inventory replenishment is coming to an end, and the downstream steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory is low. Therefore, the inventory replenishment is unlikely to drive up prices [20]. - Although the coking coal price has occasional abnormal increases driven by external disturbances and capital, the short - term upward impetus is not strong. On the one hand, the fundamental support is insufficient; on the other hand, the market sentiment does not support a strong upward trend. Also, considering the time node, there is a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival, unless there are sudden supply - side incidents. However, coking coal may have a relatively smooth upward trend in 2026, especially from June to October [20][22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review** - In January, the coking coal futures price showed a volatile rebound, with a monthly increase of 51.5 yuan/ton or +4.63%. Last week, it showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a weekly decline of 14.5 yuan/ton or - 1.15%. The overseas coal - related disturbances, though not directly affecting the domestic short - term fundamentals, have a positive impact on market sentiment. Meanwhile, the sharp fluctuations of precious metals have amplified the volatility of coking coal futures [11][14]. - In January, the coke futures price showed a wide - range volatile trend, with a monthly increase of 31.5 yuan/ton or +1.86%. Last week, it also showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a weekly decline of 20.5 yuan/ton or - 1.19%. The price movement mainly depends on the cost - side coking coal fluctuations [18]. - **Monthly Key Points Summary** - **Spot Price and Basis**: Different types of coking coal and coke have different price changes and basis situations. For example, Shanxi low - sulfur coking coal is at 1550.6 yuan/ton, with a certain price change compared to the previous period, and the basis shows a premium to the futures [19]. - **Variety Positions**: The current position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the 4 - month contract position is also abnormally high and increasing, so the pressure of warehouse receipts after price increases needs to be watched [19]. - **Domestic Output**: The daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines decreased by 1.62 tons month - on - month due to the Spring Festival holiday. However, the cumulative output increased by about 188 tons or +4.52% year - on - year (affected by the misalignment of the Lunar New Year) [19]. - **Overseas Imports**: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased to 12.33 tons/day but is still at a relatively high level in the same period. The import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal is - 316 yuan/ton, and the import window remains closed [19]. - **Demand**: The total daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants increased by 0.53 tons month - on - month. The independent coking plant's coking profit is - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton month - on - month. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises increased by 0.60 tons month - on - month, and the steel mill profitability rate remained stable. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 41.08 tons month - on - month but increased by 145.1 tons year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment). The available steel inventory increased by 89.03 tons month - on - month but decreased by 386.97 tons year - on - year [19]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The estimated daily average supply of coking coal nationwide is 150.89 tons, with a slight decline month - on - month. The estimated daily average demand for coking coal converted from coke output and hot metal both increased slightly. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is marginally looser [20]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory increased by 61.29 tons, with different changes in different sectors. The total coke inventory increased by 15.58 tons, also with different inventory changes in different sectors [20]. - **Summary and Outlook**: In the short term, the upward impetus for coking coal is weak. After the Spring Festival, there is a risk of price correction. However, coking coal may have a good upward trend from June to October in 2026 [20][22]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Coking Coal Spot Price**: As of February 5, 2026, different types of coking coal, such as low - sulfur, medium - sulfur, and Mongolian coking coal, have different price changes compared to the previous period and different basis situations with the futures [26][28][31]. - **Coke Spot Price**: As of February 5, 2026, the prices of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke have changed compared to the previous period, and their basis with the futures also shows different situations [37]. - **Coking Coal Basis and Spread**: As of February 5, 2026, the basis of Shanxi low - sulfur coking coal and Jinquan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal has changed compared to the previous period. The 5 - 9 spread of coking coal is - 76 yuan/ton, and the overall structure is in contango [44][47]. - **Coke Basis and Spread**: As of February 5, 2026, the basis of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke has changed compared to the previous period. The 5 - 9 spread of coke is - 66 yuan/ton, and the overall structure is also in contango [50][53]. 3.3 Positions and Variety Ratios - **Variety Positions**: As of February 5, 2026, the total unilateral position of coking coal is 647,700 lots, an increase of 30,800 lots month - on - month, and it is still at a relatively high historical level. The unilateral position of coke is 39,000 lots, an increase of 400 lots month - on - month. The position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the 4 - month contract position is abnormally high and increasing [62][63]. - **Variety Ratios**: This week, the ratio of JM/I increased by 0.07, and HC/JM decreased by 0.06, indicating that coking coal performed slightly stronger than iron ore and hot - rolled coil this week. Currently, JM/I is still at a low historical level, and the valuation of coking coal relative to iron ore is low. The ratio of J/I increased by 0.11, HC/J decreased by 0.04, and JM/J remained basically stable, indicating that coke was slightly stronger than iron ore and hot - rolled coil this week. Currently, J/I is also at a low historical level, and the valuation of coke relative to iron ore is low [69][72]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Domestic Coking Coal Output**: As of February 5, 2026, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines is 75.45 tons, a decrease of 1.62 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output increased by about 188 tons or +4.52% year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment). The daily average output of clean coal from 314 sample coal - washing plants is 26.31 tons, a decrease of 0.46 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output increased by about 240 tons or +27.3% year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment) [77][79]. - **Imported Coking Coal**: As of January 31, 2026, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased to 12.33 tons/day but is still at a relatively high level in the same period. In 2025, China's cumulative imports of Mongolian coking coal increased by 328.19 tons or +5.78% year - on - year. The import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal is - 316 yuan/ton, and the import window remains closed. In 2025, China's cumulative imports of Australian coking coal decreased by 144.58 tons or - 14.03% year - on - year. China's imports of coking coal from Russia and Canada increased in 2025, while imports from the United States decreased significantly due to tariffs [82][85][88]. - **Coke Output**: As of February 5, 2026, the total daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants is 10.38 tons, an increase of 0.53 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output decreased by about 71.19 tons or - 1.52% year - on - year. The coking profit of independent coking plants is - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton month - on - month. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants increased month - on - month [94][97]. - **Downstream Steel Industry**: As of February 5, 2026, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises is 228.58 tons, an increase of 0.60 tons month - on - month, and the steel mill profitability rate is 39.39%, remaining stable month - on - month. The estimated disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil are - 164 yuan/ton and - 107 yuan/ton respectively, with a slight month - on - month increase. The apparent consumption of five major steel products is 760.66 tons, a decrease of 41.08 tons month - on - month but an increase of 145.1 tons year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment). The available steel inventory is 2439.65 tons, an increase of 89.03 tons month - on - month but a decrease of 386.97 tons year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment) [100][106][110]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The estimated daily average supply of coking coal nationwide is 150.89 tons, with a slight decline month - on - month. The estimated daily average demand for coking coal converted from coke output and hot metal both increased slightly. The supply - demand structure of coking coal is marginally looser. The estimated daily average demand for coke converted from hot metal is about 109.72 tons, still slightly lower than the daily average coke output, and the supply - demand structure of coke is also marginally looser [112]. 3.5 Inventory - **Inventory Overview**: As of February 5, 2026, the total coking coal inventory increased by 61.29 tons, with different changes in different sectors such as mines, coking plants, steel mills, and ports. The total coke inventory increased by 15.58 tons, also with different inventory changes in different sectors [115][116].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has entered the inventory accumulation period around the Spring Festival. With weak demand and high inventory, the spot price is likely to fall rather than rise, driving the futures market downward. Considering the rapid accumulation of pre - festival inventory and the significant decline in spot prices, the near - month contracts may still need to squeeze out the premium. Maintain a short - selling strategy. The far - end market will re - trade the logic of production capacity reduction after the spot price turns, but the implementation path under low cost and high premium remains uncertain, and attention should be paid to the pressure after the price rises [11][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: From January to now, domestic egg prices first soared and then fell due to sentiment. At the beginning of the month, industry players were bullish, with fast market sales and low upstream and downstream inventories. By the end of the month, the price increase accelerated and exceeded expectations. However, from the end of the month to now, due to risk - control sentiment, demand decreased, inventory increased significantly, and egg prices dropped sharply from the high. In January, the slaughter of laying hens slowed down, the average age of hens increased, and the prices of chicks and young chickens rose. In February, market demand will gradually weaken, and egg prices will generally decline. After the Spring Festival, egg prices may fall below the cost [11] - **Restocking and Culling**: In January, 86.44 million hens were restocked, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% and a month - on - month increase of 9.2%. The restocking sentiment is not as strong as last year, but it has improved month - on - month due to the increase in spot prices and the optimistic market outlook. The prices of chicks have also risen from the low. Due to the previous low egg prices and continuous breeding losses, the slaughter of hens increased, and the average age of hens decreased. During the pre - Spring Festival stocking period, the sales of eggs were fast, and the egg price increase exceeded expectations. The breeding sector returned to profitability, which led to a slowdown in hen slaughter, and the average age of hens has now stopped falling and increased to 495 days [11] - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of January, the inventory of laying hens was 1.342 billion, lower than the previous value but higher than expected. The main reason is that the decrease in previous restocking led to a decline in newly - laid hens, but the slowdown in hen slaughter since January slowed down the decline in inventory, and the absolute value is still high. Based on the previous restocking data and normal hen slaughter, it is expected that the inventory will gradually peak and decline in the future, dropping to 1.289 billion by June this year, a decline of 3.9%. Although the relative supply will gradually decrease, the absolute supply is still relatively high [11] - **Demand Side**: As egg prices have risen to a phased high, traders are more cautious, and the market purchase volume may decrease. As the Spring Festival approaches, migrant workers are returning home, and the export of eggs is gradually turning into domestic sales. In the short term, attention should be paid to the digestion of domestic sales in the production areas [11] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in far - month contracts at high prices, short - sell near - month contracts such as 03 on rebounds, and pay attention to the possible logic switch after the Spring Festival. The profit - loss ratio is 2:1, and the recommended period is 1.5 months. The core driving logic includes inventory, spot price, and seasonality [13] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price Trend**: From January to now, domestic egg prices first rose and then fell. In February, market demand will gradually weaken, and egg prices will generally decline. After the Spring Festival, egg prices may fall below the cost. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.3 yuan to 3.1 yuan per catty in January, with a monthly high of 3.8 yuan per catty [20] - **Basis and Spread**: The spot price has dropped significantly, and the basis has returned to normal. As the spot price turns downward, the monthly spread is more suitable for reverse arbitrage [23] - **Slaughtered Hen Price**: As egg prices rebounded from the low and breeding became profitable, farmers were reluctant to sell, and the price of slaughtered hens and the average age of hens increased [26] - **Chick and Young Chicken Price**: Due to the increase in restocking sentiment, the prices of chicks and young chickens have risen from the low [11] 3. Supply Side - **Egg - Laying Hen Restocking**: In January, 86.44 million hens were restocked, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% and a month - on - month increase of 9.2%. The restocking sentiment has improved month - on - month due to the increase in spot prices and the optimistic market outlook [33] - **Slaughtered Hen Sales**: The previous low egg prices and breeding losses led to continuous large - scale slaughter of hens and a decline in the average age of hens. During the pre - Spring Festival stocking period, the egg price increase exceeded expectations, and the breeding sector returned to profitability, which led to a slowdown in hen slaughter, and the average age of hens has now stopped falling and increased to 495 days [36] - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of January, the inventory of laying hens was 1.342 billion, lower than the previous value but higher than expected. It is expected that the inventory will gradually decline to 1.289 billion by June this year, a decline of 3.9%, but the absolute supply is still relatively high [38][41] 4. Demand Side - As egg prices have risen to a phased high, traders are more cautious, and the market purchase volume may decrease. As the Spring Festival approaches, migrant workers are returning home, and the export of eggs is gradually turning into domestic sales. In the short term, attention should be paid to the digestion of domestic sales in the production areas [46] 5. Cost and Profit - The cost is lower year - on - year and has increased month - on - month. After the increase in spot prices, the breeding profitability has significantly recovered to the normal seasonal level [51] 6. Inventory Side - The pre - festival inventory has increased significantly, indicating that the supply scale is still large [56]

01 月度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 沃什被提名为联储主席， 金银价格大幅下跌 贵金属月报 2026/02/06 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 05 贵金属价差 01 月度评估及行情展望 月度总结 ◆ 月度行情总结：2026 年 1 月，贵金属市场的政策博弈与杠杆资金动向深度交织，共同主导了全月的价格涨跌与剧烈波动。市场完整经历了 "震荡上行-高位回调-月末修复"的走势：政策博弈是触发波动的核心因素，而杠杆资金的快速进出则显著放大了波动幅度。中上旬市场对 于美国降息预期升温叠加特朗普停征白银关税导致现货收紧等因素支撑，市场看涨情绪高度一致，杠杆资金加速入场助推金银价格走强，形 成共振上涨格局。 ◆ 1月下旬市场格局发生剧烈反转，短期波动进一步加剧。在海内外交易所先后上调金银保证金的背景下，1月29日特朗普提名沃什出任美联储 主席的消息引发宏观政策预期转向，市场看涨预期被快速逆转，直接触发杠杆资金大规模撤离，集中出逃 ...