沪金跌 0.25 %，报 1146.04 元/克，沪银跌 1.88 %，报 22219.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.36 %， 报 5207.60 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 2.54 %，报 89.30 元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.02 %，美元指数报 97.77 ； 周四，贵金属价格维持横盘整固。当前特朗普关税计划的不确定性及第三轮美伊核谈判的紧张 局势支撑金银价格，但近期美联储官员表态及市场对美国短期维持利率不变的预期为价格上涨 带来阻力。 贵金属日报 2026-02-27 贵金属 【行情资讯】 当前贵金属基本面仍然坚挺。COMEX 仍维持去库趋势不变，白银去库力度放大，总库存为 11217.13 吨（-37.49 吨），黄金库存连续两日走低，当前库存为 1045.93 吨（-2.29 吨）。白银 方面，据白银协会预期，2026 年全球白银缺口将达 6700 万盎司，连续六年呈现供应短缺，叠 加 AI 数据中心、电动汽车及半导体制造领域的刚性工业需求，进一步强化白银价格支撑；黄 金方面，2026 年全球央行购金规模预计达 755 吨，虽低于此前峰值，但仍远高于 2022 年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle. The overall market atmosphere is under certain suppression, but in the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue. Different industries have their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on these [39][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: The annualized basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter are presented. For example, IF's ratios are 4.70%/2.97%/5.48%/4.74% [2]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US tariff policy, RMB exchange rate, and AI business, the stock index is expected to have a relatively strong performance [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts on Thursday are provided. There are also news about Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the stance of the Bank of Japan. The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Although inflation recovery has potential suppression on the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not stable, the capital side is expected to remain loose. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The precious metal prices are in horizontal consolidation, with support from Trump's tariff plan and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and resistance from the Fed's officials' statements and the expectation of stable US short - term interest rates [7]. - **Strategy View**: The precious metal prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 11,300 - 12,000 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the US - Iran negotiation and other factors, copper prices are in oscillatory adjustment. LME inventory has increased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have also changed. The spot discount in the East China region has expanded [11]. - **Strategy View**: The US tariff policy provides emotional support, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. Short - term copper prices are expected to be oscillatory, with reference ranges of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have adjusted. LME inventory has decreased, and domestic inventory has increased. The spot discount in the East China region has narrowed [13]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price support is strong. The reference ranges are 23,400 - 23,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3,100 - 3,170 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices have declined. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China has increased, and the downstream enterprise start - up rate is average [15][16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry in China shows a weak trend. Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices. The zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices have increased. Both domestic and foreign inventories have risen rapidly, and the industrial situation is weak [17]. - **Strategy View**: The strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support the lead price in the short - term. It is necessary to observe the start - up of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have declined. The prices of nickel ore are stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased [18]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of nickel is shrinking, and nickel prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices are in oscillatory operation. The inventory has decreased, and the supply and demand are marginally loose [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton for domestic tin and 48,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased. The production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by the export ban, the short - term spot shortage is expected to continue. It is necessary to be cautious about the increase of selling orders. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index has declined. The spot price in Shandong has increased, and the overseas price is stable. The inventory has increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton for the AO2605 contract [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices have increased. The raw material prices have changed, and the inventory has increased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure will be relieved, and the price has a strong bottom support. It is recommended to be bullish, with a reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has increased. The inventory has changed, and the trading volume has increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have declined. The inventory and trading volume have changed [32]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage. It is expected to oscillate within a range with a weak center of gravity in the short - term. It is necessary to focus on the demand recovery and policy trends [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices have declined. Some steel enterprises in North China will implement emission reduction measures during important meetings [34]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply has recovered, and the demand is okay. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and stably. It is necessary to pay attention to domestic terminal demand and policy guidance [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The spot prices have different changes, and the basis is positive [36]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the upward catalysis of coking coal is weak. It may face a callback risk in March - May, but it may rise in the second half of 2026 [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices have declined, and the inventory has increased. Soda ash prices are stable, and the inventory has increased [40][42]. - **Strategy View**: Glass is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 1,025 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly and stably, with a reference range of 1,140 - 1,200 yuan/ton [41][43]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices have increased, and ferrosilicon prices have also risen slightly [44]. - **Strategy View**: The future market is mainly affected by the black market and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices have declined, and polysilicon prices have also decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices are in oscillatory operation. The start - up rates of tire enterprises are low, and the inventory has increased [53][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade according to the short - term trend of the disk and set stop - losses. It is also recommended to go long on NR and short on RU2609 [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices have declined, and the inventory data of related products have changed [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices have changed, and the MTO profit has increased [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices have changed, and the basis is negative [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short urea due to the expected negative fundamentals [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene have changed. The supply and demand sides have different performances [63]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits gradually as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices have declined. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [66]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor, and the fundamentals are weak [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory cycle is about to end. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices have declined. The load and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory has changed [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory pressure is high [76]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices have different changes. The actual supply pressure has been reduced [80]. - **Strategy View**: The spot price is expected to be weak, but there may be support for the far - month contracts [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mainly stable. The supply is normal, and the market digestion speed is okay [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot price decline is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The export and production data of soybeans in the US and Brazil are provided. The domestic soybean inventory has changed [84]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to the increase in import costs [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic oil inventory has increased [87]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger. It is recommended to buy when the oil prices stop falling at low levels [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided. The domestic import data are also given [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the international sugar market. The domestic sugar price is suppressed by high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The US cotton export data and the domestic cotton inventory data are provided [92]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to buy on dips if the downstream start - up rate after the Spring Festival is good [93].

专题报告 2026-02-27 鸡蛋：估值压力仍存 王 俊 农产品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 在产蛋鸡存栏规模偏大，但节后开年蛋价高于预期，且库存规模未出现明显积累，考虑是延淘、 换羽、冻品入库等累库行为增多所致。尽管累库期现货受到托底并能进一步支撑盘面近月的走 强，但行业信心提前重建，补栏、延淘等行为的增多，存在削弱中期蛋价上涨潜力、乃至进一 步堆积成压力的可能，盘面远端在普遍升水的背景下，后期仍需留意估值压力。 农产品研究 | 鸡蛋 鸡蛋：估值压力仍存 一、节后开年价强于预期 节后蛋价如期低开，但下跌幅度低于往年同期，开年价表现强于此前预期。数据显示，开年后 辛集大码蛋价报 2.56 元/斤，馆陶报价 2.78 元/斤，分别较节前下跌了 0.11 元/斤，幅度低于 5 年均值的 0.37 元/斤，侧面印证了存栏积累不严重，且超长春节导致备货需求提前，节后外 销产区反映走货偏快，导致节后蛋价低开后迅速企稳并走强。另外，考虑在产存栏仍处高位， 且鸡龄结构年轻导致产蛋率偏高，叠加节日期间淘鸡走量有限以及鸡 ...

有色金属日报 2026-2-27 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美伊谈判没有明显进展，原油震荡，隔夜美股科技股走弱，铜价震荡调整，昨日伦铜 3M 合约下跌 0.68%至 13259 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 102150 元/吨。昨日 LME 库存增加 3950 至 253600 吨， 增量来自北美 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-02-27 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3063 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 13 元/吨（-0.42%）。当日注册仓单 19597 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 195.24 万手，环比减少 36289 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3130 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收 盘价为 3218 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 18 元/吨（-0.55%）。 当日注册仓单 350770 吨, 环比增加 1765 吨。 主力合约持仓 ...

能源化工日报 2026-02-27 2026/02/27 原油 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 INE 主力原油期货收跌 6.00 元/桶，跌幅 1.23%，报 483.60 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 53.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.81%，报 2987.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 4.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.12%，报 3460.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存累库 15.99 百万桶至 435.80 百万桶，环比累库 3.81%；SPR 补库 0.00 百万桶至 415.44 百万桶，环比补库 0.00%；汽油库存去库 1.01 百万桶 至 254.83 百万桶，环比去库 0.40%；柴油库存累库 0.25 百万桶至 120.35 百万桶，环比累库 0.21%；燃料油库存去库 0.11 百万桶至 23.04 百万桶，环比去库 0.46%；航空煤油库存去库 徐绍祖 聚烯烃分析师 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 18665881888 xusha ...

农产品早报 2026-02-27 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 北半球方面，2 月上半月印度产量同比小幅减产，而泰国产量同比小幅增产，二者相互抵消。而目前原 糖价格已经跌至历史低位，且持续贴水巴西乙醇折算价，在今年 4 月后巴西新榨季生产存在着下调甘蔗 制糖比例的可能性，不宜过分看空。国内方面，现阶段高库存依然压制糖价，短线延续观望，待北半球 收榨后供应压力缓解，或有反弹的可能性。 棉花 【行情资讯】 （1）据 USDA 数据显示，2 月 5 日至 2 月 12 日当周，美国当前年度棉花出口销售 10.68 万吨，创 2026 年以来单周新高，累计出口销售 198.99 万吨，同比减少 14.29 万吨；其中当周对中国出口 0.4 万吨，累 计出口 9.79 万吨，同比减少 7.41 万吨。（2）据 Mysteel 数据显示，截至 2 月 6 日当周，纺纱厂开机率 为 60.5%，环比前 ...

有色金属日报 2026-2-26 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上海出台地产"沪七条"，国内权益市场继续反弹，叠加资源民族主义担忧，铜价走升，昨日伦铜 3M 合约上涨 1.17%至 13349 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 102620 元/吨。昨日 LME 库存增加 6475 至 249650 吨，增量主要来自北美仓库，注销仓单比例提高，Cash/3M 维持贴水。国内上期所日度仓单 增加 1.1 至 28.8 万吨。华东地区现货由升水转为贴水期货 180 元/吨，下游陆续入市采购，成交回 暖，但供应较多导致基差报价走弱。广东地区铜现货贴 ...

专题报告 2026-02-26 氧化铝：基本面边际改善，突破仍需驱动 吴坤金 报告要点： 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 检修增加叠加投产延迟驱动累库幅度收缩，矿端供应过剩延续，盘面升水驱动仓单注册创 新高，交割压力压制盘面价格上行。期货价格突破需重点关注潜在的驱动，一是几内亚矿山减 产动作或几内亚政府挺价动作；二是冶炼端供应收缩政策落地。短期建议观望为主，追多缺乏 安全边际。国内主力合约 AO2605 参考运行区间：2650-3000 元/吨。 王梓铧 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn | 区域 | 公司 | 202601 | 202602 | 202603 | 202604 | 2026全年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 重庆 | 博赛 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | | 广西 | 广投北海 | 240 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 240 | | 广西 | ...

贵金属日报 2026-02-26 电话：0755-23375128 邮箱：jiangwb@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 0.65 %，报 1153.90 元/克，沪银涨 1.88 %，报 23365.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 0.21 %， 报 5187.90 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 1.97 %，报 89.23 元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.05 %，美元指数报 97.65 ； 周三，在美元走软与地缘政治不确定性攀升的背景下贵金属价格震荡上行。 美国总统特朗普总统发表国情咨文（SOTU）引发美元指数回撤，其声称政府已将通胀率降至五 年最低，提及提名倾向降息的美联储主席沃什引导市场降息预期；对于此前最高法院的裁决提 出将推行替代关税。此外其对伊朗维持高压态势，并提出恢复国土安全部资助、加强西半球干 预等政策主张，推动地缘政治风险升温。 叠加当日亚特兰大联储行长博斯蒂克在告别文章中直截了当的点明其对于美国民众开始质疑 美联储独立性的担忧，美元指数或将持续走低打开黄金的趋势性反弹空间。 【策略观点】 虽然近期央行购金放缓，官方部门的结构性需求仍然坚实，叠加美国关税政策不确定性 ...