Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a metal option strategy morning report dated November 10, 2025, covering有色金属, precious metals, and black metals [1][2] - It provides option strategies and suggestions for selected metal varieties based on market analysis and option factor research [8] Group 2: Market Conditions Futures Market - The latest prices, changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts are presented, showing different trends in each metal [3] Option Factors - The volume and open interest PCR, pressure and support levels, implied volatility, and historical volatility of each metal option are analyzed, providing insights into market sentiment and risk [4][5][6] Group 3: Option Strategies Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Build a short - volatility seller option portfolio and a spot hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum**: Construct a bull spread of call options, a short call + put option portfolio, and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc**: Build a short neutral call + put option portfolio and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: Construct a short bearish call + put option portfolio and a spot covered call strategy [10] - **Tin**: Build a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Construct a short neutral call + put option portfolio and a spot long + put + call option strategy [11] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Build a short - volatility neutral option seller portfolio and a spot hedging strategy [12] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Build a short bearish call + put option portfolio and a spot covered call strategy [13] - **Iron Ore**: Build a short bearish call + put option portfolio and a spot collar strategy [13] - **Ferro - alloy**: Build a short - volatility strategy for manganese silicon [14] - **Industrial Silicon**: Build a short - volatility call + put option portfolio and a spot hedging strategy [14] - **Glass**: Build a short - volatility call + put option portfolio and a spot collar strategy [15] Group 4: Charts - Charts of price trends, option volume and open interest, PCR, implied volatility, and historical volatility for various metals are provided, visually presenting market changes [19][21][27][38][40][46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hawkish stance of the Fed's monetary policy has significantly pressured the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, pausing the previous strong performance of gold and silver prices. However, Powell's statement on the balance sheet is a key turning point, and a long - position approach to gold and silver prices should be maintained as the Fed will end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st, providing a solid reason for the subsequent expansion of the balance sheet [2]. - Structurally, the tight supply situation of overseas silver spot cannot be completely resolved. China's photovoltaic silver demand is resilient, and India's silver imports are expected to rise in the fourth quarter. The gold - silver ratio is still significantly higher than the historical average. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On November 10, 2025, Shanghai gold rose 0.25% to 919.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.10% to 11,405.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4007.80 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 48.23 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.11%, and the US dollar index was 99.62 [2]. 3.2 Policy Analysis - In the October FOMC meeting, Powell carried out a "hawkish interest rate cut", lowering the policy rate by 25bps to 3.75% - 4.00% while taking a hawkish stance on the subsequent interest rate path. He believed that the December interest rate cut was not certain, and the pace of interest rate cuts could slow down if economic data continued to be missing due to a government shutdown. He also thought inflation was still high and had rebounded recently [2]. - 2026 FOMC voter and hawkish official Hamark emphasized inflation risks on November 6, believing that monetary policy might not be ready to handle the current inflation level, and the current economic environment was not conducive to further interest rate cuts [2]. - New York Fed President Williams said the neutral interest rate was difficult to estimate, with the model showing 1%, and emphasized the resilience of inflation [2]. - Powell announced that the Fed would end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st due to obvious pressure in the money market, and the real - world situation after the meeting confirmed his statement on liquidity, providing a reason for the subsequent balance sheet expansion [2]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - In the precious metals sector, the tight supply of overseas silver spot is difficult to resolve. China's photovoltaic silver demand is resilient, and India's silver imports are expected to rise. The gold - silver ratio as of November 7 was 82.3, significantly higher than the historical average since 1971. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver contract is 11,001 - 12,366 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.4 Data Statistics - Gold and silver price, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and other data on November 7, 2025, showed that most indicators had certain changes compared with the previous day, such as the closing price of COMEX gold active contract rising 0.58% to 4007.80 US dollars/ounce, and the trading volume rising 8.30% to 19.89 million lots [5]. - As of November 7, 2025, the internal - external price differences of gold and silver were calculated, including SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA price differences [54].

文字早评 2025/11/10 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、近两个月，六氟磷酸锂价格持续走高，较低点涨幅近 120%，并传导至上下游相关产品； 2、国务院办公厅印发的《关于加快场景培育和开放推动新场景大规模应用的实施意见》对外发布； 3、财政部表示，继续实施好提振消费专项行动，对重点领域的个人消费贷款和相关行业经营主体贷款 给予财政贴息； 4、闪迪 11 月大幅调涨 NAND 闪存合约价格 涨幅高达 50%。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.12%/-0.41%/-1.12%/-1.96%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.49%/-1.33%/-3.64%/-6.18%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.64%/-1.72%/-4.65%/-7.52%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.01%/0.00%/-0.12%/-0.35%。 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周五，TL 主力合约收于 115.950 ，环比变化-0.14%；T 主力合约收于 108.445 ，环比变 化-0.08%；TF 主力合约收于 105.910 ，环比变化-0.05%；TS 主力合约收于 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, supply has not yet increased significantly, so short - term bearish sentiment on oil prices should be cautious. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see to test OPEC's export price - support intention [2] - For methanol, with rising domestic production and high imports, supply pressure increases. Demand is weak, leading to high enterprise and port inventories. The weak reality remains unchanged, and the high - inventory problem of the 01 contract may further suppress the spot price. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - For urea, prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack drivers, and supply and demand are relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, but the downside space is also limited at current low prices. It is advisable to wait and see [5] - For rubber, prices are rebounding as expected. Set stop - losses and conduct short - term long trades on pullbacks. Partially build positions for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11] - For PVC, the supply is strong and demand is weak, with poor export prospects. There is continuous inventory accumulation pressure. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene prices are falling, while styrene futures prices are rising. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. Styrene prices may stop falling in the short term due to high - level inventory reduction [16] - For polyethylene, the PE valuation has limited downward space, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, prices may remain range - bound at a low level [19] - For polypropylene, in a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The price may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [22] - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory increase in November, with prices mainly following crude oil fluctuations. There may be opportunities for valuation increases in the medium term [25] - For PTA, continuous inventory accumulation is expected in November, and processing fees are under pressure. There may be opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by the increase in PXN in the medium term [28] - For ethylene glycol, there is expected to be continuous inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies [30] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed up 0.10 yuan/barrel, a 0.02% increase, at 460.60 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG gasoline inventory decreased by 0.56 million barrels to 12.78 million barrels, a 4.17% decrease; diesel inventory increased by 0.69 million barrels to 9.22 million barrels, an 8.14% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.30 million barrels to 24.48 million barrels, a 1.21% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.16 million barrels to 46.48 million barrels, a 0.35% decrease [5][6] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 17, remained stable in Inner Mongolia, and increased by 15 in southern Shandong. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 13 yuan to 2112 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 15. The 1 - 5 spread remained stable at - 101 [2] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased by 30, 30, and 20 respectively. The 01 contract of the futures market increased by 23 yuan to 1667 yuan, with a basis of - 67. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 16 to - 67 due to news of new export quotas [4] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were oscillating. The expected resolution of the US government shutdown and the expected easing of Fed funds are macro - bullish factors. As of November 6, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 65.54%, up 0.21 percentage points from last week and 5.35 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.45%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 4.37 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire exports slowed down. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.6 tons, an increase of 1.7 tons or 1.6% [9][10] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 19 yuan to 4611 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 91 (+19) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 304 (-1) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.8%, up 2.5%; the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 81.2%, up 3.8%; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 79.7%, down 0.5%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.6%, down 0.9%. Factory inventory was 33.5 tons (-0.3), and social inventory was 104 tons (+1.2) [11] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract was 5422 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan/ton; the basis was - 112 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 24 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the active contract was 6317 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton; the basis was 33 yuan/ton, a weakening of 17 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 88.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 471.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the spread between EB continuous 1 and continuous 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 66.94%, up 0.22%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 17.93 tons, a decrease of 1.37 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, down 1.29%; the operating rate of PS was 53.50%, up 1.50%; the operating rate of EPS was 53.95%, down 8.30%; the operating rate of ABS was 71.60%, down 0.50% [15] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6802 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the basis was 48 yuan/ton, a weakening of 22 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.43%, down 0.31%. The production enterprise inventory was 49.02 tons, an increase of 7.42 tons; the trader inventory was 5.01 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.85%, down 0.52%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 79 yuan/ton, an expansion of 2 yuan/ton [18] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6464 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the basis was 46 yuan/ton, a weakening of 13 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.94%, down 0.61%. The production enterprise inventory was 59.99 tons, an increase of 0.48 tons; the trader inventory was 22.86 tons, an increase of 1.5 tons; the port inventory was 6.46 tons, a decrease of 0.07 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.14%, up 0.52%. The LL - PP spread was 338 yuan/ton, an expansion of 4 yuan/ton [21] PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 6780 yuan; PX CFR decreased by 3 dollars to 823 dollars; the basis was - 61 yuan (+12); the 1 - 3 spread was 2 yuan (+6). The PX load in China was 89.8%, up 2.8%; the Asian load was 80.2%, up 2.1%. The FJDH plant in China and the FCFC plant in Taiwan restarted. The PTA load was 76.4%, down 1.2%. In October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 42.6 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of September was 402.6 tons, an increase of 10.8 tons month - on - month. The PXN was 250 dollars (+11), the South Korean PX - MX was 110 dollars (+5), and the naphtha crack spread was 110 dollars (-2) [24] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 24 yuan to 4664 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 35 yuan/ton to 4575 yuan. The basis was - 78 yuan (+2), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 64 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 76.4%, down 1.2%. The downstream load was 91.5%, down 0.2%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 31 was 220.7 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 53 yuan to 167 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 2 yuan to 216 yuan [26] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 18 yuan to 3942 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 41 yuan to 4013 yuan. The basis was 70 yuan (-4), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan (+3). The ethylene glycol load was 72.4%, down 3.8%; the load of synthetic gas production was 71.9%, down 11.5%; the load of ethylene production was 72.7%, up 0.7%. The import arrival forecast was 18.9 tons, and the East China departure on November 6 was 1.1 tons. The port inventory was 56.2 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 825 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 649 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 628 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 740 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines decreased to 540 yuan [29]

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints After a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, leading to a decrease in market risk appetite. The short - term index faces certain uncertainties. However, in the long - run, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the main strategy is to go long on dips [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: The US Treasury Secretary mentioned that the China - US trade agreement might be signed as early as next week; the CSRC Chairman proposed to establish a long - cycle assessment mechanism for long - term funds; a draft of guidelines for public fund performance benchmarks was released; the Dutch government expected Anshi China to resume chip supply soon [12]. - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In September 2025, industrial added value grew 6.5% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment was - 0.5%, retail sales grew 3.0%, and Q3 GDP growth was 4.8%. The October official manufacturing PMI was 49.0, lower than expected. M1 growth was 7.2%, M2 was 8.4%. Social financing increment was 3.53 trillion yuan, slightly higher than expected. Exports in September decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [12]. - **Interest Rate and Credit Environment**: The 10Y Treasury bond rate and credit bond rate declined this month, credit spreads narrowed, and liquidity remained loose [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term due to medium - low valuation and long - term discount. Hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new interest - rate cut cycle may benefit high - dividend assets [14]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.08% to 3997.56, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19% to 13404.06, etc. The Hang Seng Index rose 2.24%, while the AH ratio decreased by 0.70%. The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 declined [17]. - **Futures Market**: IF, IH, and IM contracts generally rose, while IC contracts generally fell. For example, IF当月 rose 0.57% to 4673.0, and IC当月 fell 0.30% to 7292.0 [18]. 3.3 Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators**: Q3 2025 GDP growth was 4.8%. The October manufacturing PMI was 49.0. In September, consumption growth was 3.0%, exports decreased by 1.1%, and investment growth was - 0.5%. Manufacturing investment was 4.0%, real - estate investment was - 13.9%, and infrastructure investment was 1.1% [40][43][46]. - **Corporate Earnings**: In the 2025 semi - annual report, revenue growth was flat year - on - year and up 0.4% quarter - on - quarter. Net profit growth was 2.5% year - on - year and down 1.0% quarter - on - quarter [49]. 3.4 Interest Rate and Credit Environment - **Interest Rate**: The 10Y Treasury bond rate and 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate declined [53]. - **Credit Environment**: In September 2025, M1 growth was 7.2%, M2 was 8.4%. Social financing increment was 3.53 trillion yuan, slightly higher than expected, mainly due to reduced government bonds and entity loans [65]. 3.5 Fund Flow - **Inflow**: In October, new equity - oriented fund shares were about 6 billion. This week, margin trading increased by about 6 billion, with a new balance of 248.0537 billion, a record high [72][75]. - **Outflow**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 522.3 million yuan, and the number of IPO approvals was 1 [78]. 3.6 Valuation - **P/E Ratio (TTM)**: Shanghai 50 was 11.98, CSI 300 was 14.33, CSI 500 was 33.46, and CSI 1000 was 47.81. - **P/B Ratio (LF)**: Shanghai 50 was 1.31, CSI 300 was 1.49, CSI 500 was 2.28, and CSI 1000 was 2.51 [83].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is likely to continue to fluctuate. The central bank's restart of buying and selling government bonds is positive for bond market sentiment in the short - term. In the medium - term, the bond market in the fourth quarter is mainly affected by fundamentals, the implementation time of the new fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation power. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve, and the market may maintain a volatile trend under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. The bond market is expected to recover with fluctuations, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Situation**: In October, the manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, with both supply and demand under pressure. The non - manufacturing PMI met expectations and showed a slight improvement. The "anti - involution" has boosted price expectations, but the coordination between demand and production needs further observation. In terms of exports, October's export data was lower than expected, with exports to the US declining and non - US exports maintaining resilience. The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving the annual economic and social development goals, and as the economic growth rate in the first three quarters was relatively high, the pressure to achieve the goal this year is not large. Policy may focus more on policies for the connection with next year, and there is no strong need for additional measures in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates in October, and subsequent inflation and employment data will indicate whether there will be a rate cut in December [11]. - **Major Events**: The People's Bank of China and the Bank of Korea renewed the bilateral local currency swap agreement with a scale of 400 billion yuan/70 trillion won for five years. On November 5, the Ministry of Finance issued 4 billion US dollars of sovereign bonds in Hong Kong, which were well - received by the market. The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff measures on US - originated goods. Some Fed officials expressed their views on interest rate cuts, and US financial system liquidity was approaching a dangerous level. China's October export and import data were released, and the foreign exchange reserve scale increased slightly [11][12][13]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 2.068 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.5722 trillion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.43% [14]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10 - year Treasury yield was 1.81%, up 1.14 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury yield was 2.16%, up 1.00 BP week - on - week; the latest 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.11%, unchanged week - on - week [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to buy on dips for a 6 - month period, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1. The core driving logic is loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [16]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Contract Performance**: Presented the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [19][23][26][29][31][36]. 3. Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy** - **GDP and PMI**: In the third quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value, while the service PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage point [41]. - **Manufacturing PMI Sub - items**: In October, both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry were under pressure. The production index decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 49.5%, and the new order index decreased by 0.9 percentage points. Domestic demand recovery was still insufficient [47]. - **Price Index**: In September, CPI同比 decreased by 0.3%, core CPI同比 increased by 1.0%, and PPI同比 decreased by 2.3%. In terms of month - on - month data, CPI环比 was 0.1%, core CPI环比 was 0.0%, and PPI环比 was 0.0% [50]. - **Export and Import**: In October 2025, China's import and export data were slightly lower than expected. Exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 25.1% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate of 10.9% year - on - year [53]. - **Industrial and Consumption Data**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.4%, and the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales was 3.0%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value [56]. - **Investment and Real Estate**: From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 0.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 13.9%. In September, the month - on - month growth rate of second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.6%, and the year - on - year growth rate was - 5.2% [59]. - **Foreign Economy** - **US Economy**: In the second quarter, the US GDP at current prices on an annualized basis was 3.0331 trillion US dollars, with an actual year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In September, the US CPI and core CPI data were released, and the ISM manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI data were also reported. In August, the order amount of durable goods increased by 7.63% year - on - year, and the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 22,000 [68][71][74]. - **EU and Eurozone Economy**: In the third quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. In September, the eurozone CPI and core CPI data were released, and in October, the manufacturing and service PMI data were reported [74][77]. 4. Liquidity - **Money Supply and Social Financing**: In September, the M1 growth rate was 7.2%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.4%. The M1 - M2 gap continued to narrow. The social financing increment was 3.53 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 233.9 billion yuan. The growth of social financing mainly came from government bonds [82]. - **Social Financing Sub - items**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of government bonds in social financing slowed down, and the financing of the real - economy sector remained stable. The social financing growth rate of the household and enterprise sectors was 5.94%, and the growth rate of government bonds was 20.20% [85]. - **MLF and Reverse Repurchase**: In September, the MLF balance was 5.85 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 2.068 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 867.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1.2008 trillion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.46% [88]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rate Changes**: Presented the latest interest rates, daily, weekly, and monthly changes of various types of interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [92]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Charts**: Presented charts of Treasury bond yields, inter - bank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond yields of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy, the Fed's target interest rate, and exchange rates [95][97][100].

需求复苏乏力， 政策信心托底 钢材月报 2025/11/07 0755-23375155 zhaoh3@wkqh.cn 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 赵航 （联系人） 从业资格号：F03133652 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润和库存 06 需求与进出口 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度小结 ◆ 估值：2025年10月，钢厂平均盈利率为48.83%，钢厂平均盈利率下降幅度较大，整体盈利空间明显收窄。即期利润方面，即期利润方面，螺 纹钢华东地区长流程（高炉）利润约为-51元/吨，电炉利润约为-60元/吨，钢厂亏损进一步扩大。本月价格整体震荡偏弱，终端需求恢复乏 力，长流程与短流程均陷入亏损区间，钢厂盈利能力显著下滑，生产积极性受到一定抑制。 ◆ 供应： 2025年10月，螺纹钢产量为1031.24万吨，同比增加74.62万吨；热轧卷板产量为1615.84万吨，同比增加392.13万吨。平均铁水日均 产量约238.59万吨/周，较上月相比小幅下降，仍处相对高位。整体来看，本月钢材产量稍有 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures price has been oscillating downward due to high production, increasing warehouse receipts, and high inventory. Although there was a brief rebound at the end of October driven by the strengthening of the non - ferrous sector, it quickly reversed. The current price is near the cost of most manufacturers, and ore price fluctuations and production reduction actions will determine the future price trend. - The alumina spot price is under pressure due to high monthly production and continuous inventory accumulation. The oversupply situation is expected to persist until large - scale production cuts occur. - After the rainy season, the bauxite shipping will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, as the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, the expectation of future production cuts is increasing. Considering the strong performance of the overall non - ferrous sector, short - term short - selling is not cost - effective. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of November 7, the alumina index has fallen 3.15% since September 30 to 2801 yuan/ton. The high production, increasing warehouse receipts, and high inventory have driven the futures price to oscillate downward. The basis fluctuated narrowly in October, and as of November 7, the Shandong spot price was at a discount of 3 yuan/ton to the main alumina contract price. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts continued to widen, with the near - month contract weakening due to the weak spot market and the far - month contract being relatively strong due to production reduction expectations. - **Spot Price**: The monthly alumina production remained at a high level this year, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, putting pressure on the spot price. As of November 7, 2025, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2930 yuan/ton, 2960 yuan/ton, 2855 yuan/ton, 2780 yuan/ton, 2840 yuan/ton, and 3120 yuan/ton respectively, with significant drops compared to early October. The decline in the southern region was greater than that in the northern region. - **Inventory**: As of November 7, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 251,000 tons to 4.588 million tons compared to early October. The alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse increased by 16,500 tons to 253,700 tons. [11] 2. Supply - side - In 2025, the alumina production in September was 7.746 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 66.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.82%. - New production capacity projects in the first three quarters were successfully put into operation and gradually released production. However, the uncertainty of new production in the fourth quarter has increased due to profit fluctuations. - The alumina spot price has been continuously declining, and the profit of alumina plants is under pressure. The production profit in different regions varies, with Guangxi having a relatively high profit, while some inland regions using imported ore are at a loss. [40][43][45] 3. Raw Material - side - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic bauxite production has decreased recently due to environmental regulations in the north and the rainy season in the south, but the price remains firm. The price of imported bauxite is expected to decline further after the rainy season as the overseas shipping volume is stable and the port inventory is high. - **Bauxite Production**: In October 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. The cumulative production in the first ten months was 50.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.22%. - **Bauxite Import**: In September 2025, China imported 15.88 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 37.45% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.77%. The cumulative import in the first nine months was 157.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.97%. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, 2025, the global bauxite shipping volume remained stable at a high level. China's bauxite port inventory was 27.36 million tons, and the total bauxite inventory increased by 240,000 tons to 52.5 million tons in October, remaining at a high level in the past five years. [12][25][27] 4. Import and Export - In September 2025, the net export of alumina was 186,400 tons, maintaining a net export status. The cumulative net export in the first nine months was 1.4512 million tons. - As of November 7, the monthly Australian FOB price decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 320 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 46 yuan/ton. The overseas alumina price fluctuated in the range of 315 - 320 US dollars this month, and the domestic spot price continued to decline, leading to a decrease in import profit and loss. [48][51] 5. Demand - side - In September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 33.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73%. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in September 2025 was 44.56 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.35% month - on - month to 97.47%. [55][58] 6. Inventory - As of November 7, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 251,000 tons to 4.588 million tons compared to early October. The alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse increased by 16,500 tons to 253,700 tons. [63][64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - In October, the lead price fluctuated upwards. The domestic lead ingot social and factory inventories decreased to a low level, and there was a large - scale cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts overseas. The lead price increased with rising positions. With the slowdown of destocking of the total domestic lead ingot inventory but still at a low absolute level, and the continued shortage of deliverable products, and the relatively concentrated long positions of SHFE lead, it is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In October, the lead price fluctuated upwards. As of November 6, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.26% to 17,438 yuan/ton, with a total long - only trading position of 122,500 lots. The LME lead 3S rose 0.5 to 2,022 dollars/ton, with a total position of 150,000 lots. The SMM 1 lead ingot average price was 17,225 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,175 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **Market Structure**: Domestically, the social inventory slightly increased to 32,100 tons, the SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 21,900 tons. Overseas, the LME lead ingot inventory was 208,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warehouse receipts were 106,700 tons. The cross - market SHFE - LME ratio was 1.211 after excluding exchange rates, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 31.09 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 27,000 tons, the factory inventory was 420,000 tons. The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.17%. At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 83,000 tons, and the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 39,000 tons. The lead - acid battery start - up rate was 68.90% [11]. - **Outlook**: The visible lead ore inventory continued to decline, the primary smelter start - up rate remained high, and the primary lead factory inventory increased. The recycled lead ingot weekly output increased. The downstream battery enterprise start - up rate declined, and the domestic lead ingot total inventory destocking slowed down but was still at a low level, with deliverable products remaining in short supply. It is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term [11]. 3.2 Primary Supply - **Supply Data**: In September 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 150,600 physical tons, and in October, the domestic lead concentrate production was 146,200 metal tons. The total supply of lead concentrate in September was 306,000 metal tons. In June 2025, the global lead ore output was 395,900 tons [15][17][19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 27,000 tons, the factory inventory was 420,000 tons. The lead concentrate import TC was - 125 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Data**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.17%, and in October 2025, the domestic primary lead output was 326,000 tons [11][26]. 3.3 Recycled Supply - **Raw Material and Production**: The lead scrap inventory was 83,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 39,000 tons, and in October 2025, the domestic recycled lead output was 346,300 tons [31][33][35]. - **Total Supply**: In September 2025, the domestic lead ingot total supply was 657,200 tons [35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up and Apparent Demand**: The lead - acid battery start - up rate was 68.9%. In September 2025, the domestic lead ingot apparent demand was 718,900 tons [40]. - **Battery Export**: In September 2025, the estimated lead - containing net export of batteries was 60,700 tons [43]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, the new installation demand improved; in the automobile sector, the demand for lead was expected to grow steadily; in the base station sector, the demand for lead - acid batteries increased steadily [49][51][54]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In September 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 61,800 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to September was a shortage of 6,800 tons [63]. - **Overseas Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of 8,000 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to July was a shortage of 53,900 tons [66]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Market Structure**: Domestically, the social inventory slightly increased, the SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 21,600 tons. Overseas, the LME lead ingot inventory was 224,200 tons. The cross - market SHFE - LME ratio was 1.213 after excluding exchange rates, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 24.99 yuan/ton [71][74][77]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of SHFE lead became net long, the net long positions of LME lead investment funds decreased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises decreased. From the position perspective, the short - term guidance was bullish [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In the short term, the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, dragging down the nickel price. If the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, it is difficult for the nickel price to rise significantly. However, in the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support the nickel price, and the nickel price may confirm the bottom earlier than the fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If the nickel price drops sufficiently (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, consider gradually establishing long positions. The short - term operating range of the main contract price of Shanghai nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In October, the nickel ore price remained stable. In the Philippines, due to increased rainfall and strong price - holding intention of mines, the price is unlikely to fall soon. In Indonesia, the overall supply and demand of pyrometallurgical ore is relatively loose, but the new rule on the approval cycle intensifies the expectation of "ore supply shortage", and smelters are speeding up stockpiling, with the price expected to remain stable or rise slightly. The hydrometallurgical ore market is dull, and the price is expected to remain stable [11]. - **Ferronickel**: In October, the ferronickel price was weak due to weak demand. The supply - side profit is squeezed, and the price - holding intention is strong. The demand from the stainless - steel industry is weak, and steel enterprises are pressing down the price. The demand side dominates the price, and the price is expected to remain weak [11]. - **Intermediate products**: The supply - demand tightness of the MHP market continues. The supply of MHP spot is limited, and sellers are strongly holding the price. The demand for battery pre - installation due to the subsidy withdrawal in 2026 makes downstream enterprises more accepting of high prices, and the MHP coefficient price remains strong [11]. - **Refined nickel**: In October, the nickel price fluctuated weakly. Macroscopically, although the Sino - US tariff negotiation made progress, the US government shutdown and the Fed's slightly hawkish stance led to a general decline in non - ferrous metal prices after a rise. In the spot market, the output of refined nickel remained high, and inventories continued to accumulate, with the spot premium stable [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures nickel price trend**: In October, the nickel price fluctuated weakly. As of November 6, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 119,440 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract was 15,055 US dollars/ton [17]. - **Nickel spot premium**: In October, the spot premium of domestic refined nickel fluctuated strongly. As of November 7, the premium of Russian nickel spot average price to the near - month contract was 400 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 3,100 yuan/ton, with the average price up 700 yuan/ton from the previous month [21]. - **Secondary nickel price**: In October, the ferronickel price was weak. As of November 6, the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was 912 - 921 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 38 yuan/nickel point from the previous month. The sulfuric acid nickel price was relatively strong, and as of November 6, the domestic spot price of sulfuric acid nickel was 28,340 - 28,600 yuan/ton, with the average price basically unchanged from the previous month [24]. 3. Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The nickel ore price remained stable with a slight increase. On November 7, the arrival price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 52.7 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous month; that of 1.2% - grade was 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous month; and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade Philippine nickel ore was 58 US dollars/wet ton, up 1 US dollar/ton from the previous month [33]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In October 2025, the national refined nickel output was 33,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from September [48]. - **Demand**: The demand for refined nickel is affected by the stainless - steel industry, manufacturing, and real - estate industries. The inventory of stainless - steel enterprises and the performance of terminal industries have an impact on demand [50]. - **Import and export**: No specific data on import and export changes in October are mentioned, but relevant charts are provided [54]. - **Inventory**: In October, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 30,284 tons to 299,948 tons, with both China and the LME accumulating inventory [58]. 5. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Supply**: No specific data on supply changes in October are mentioned, but relevant charts on production and net import volume are provided [64]. - **Demand**: The demand for sulfuric acid nickel is related to the installation volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors [67]. - **Cost and price**: Charts on the production cost, price, and profit margin of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel are provided, but no specific data on October are mentioned [70]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance The report provides the supply - demand balance data from 2019 to 2025. From 2019 - 2025, the overall supply is greater than the demand, and the supply - demand gap shows an increasing trend year by year [75].