Report Title - Urea Weekly Report: Nissan Rises, Supply Pressure Increases [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The market is currently weak, with rising enterprise inventories and falling spot prices. Although the valuation is at a low level, there is limited downside space, but there is no driving force for an upward trend. It is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The futures market continued to fluctuate weakly, closing slightly lower for the week, with prices approaching the lower edge of the range. Enterprises faced pressure to receive orders before the holiday, and the spot market remained weak. The basis and inter - month spreads fluctuated weakly at low levels [12]. - **Supply**: The domestic urea plant operating rate was 81.22%, a 1.88% increase from the previous week, and it is expected to continue rising. The latest daily production was 196,000 tons, and supply pressure has increased again. The enterprise's advance orders were 6.18 days, a decrease of 0.7 days from the previous week, and market sentiment remained cautious [12]. - **Demand**: The compound fertilizer operating rate was 38.63%, a slight increase from the previous week, and it is currently mainly producing wheat fertilizer. It is the off - season for agricultural demand, and there has been no concentrated release of agricultural demand. Coal - based production profits have further declined, and attention should be paid to cost support [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The inter - month spreads and basis were generally weak, both at low levels compared to the same period last year. The export profit was high, and the domestic market was relatively undervalued. Urea was undervalued [12]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventories were 1.1653 million tons, a 32,600 - ton increase from the previous week, and at a high level compared to the same period last year, indicating weak domestic demand. Port inventories were 516,000 tons, a 33,400 - ton decrease from the previous week [12]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contracts**: The prices of the 09, 01, and 05 contracts were 1,744, 1,661, and 1,722 respectively. The 09 contract increased by 174, the 01 contract decreased by 2, and the 05 contract increased by 4 compared to the previous week. The 9 - 1 spread increased by 176, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 6, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 170 [13]. - **Spot Market**: The latest prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were 1,640, 1,650, and 1,680 respectively. The Shandong price remained unchanged, while the Henan and Hebei prices increased by 10. The Shandong, Henan, and Hebei basis were - 21, - 11, and 19 respectively, with increases of 2, 12, and 12 compared to the previous week [13]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizers (45%S) in Shandong and Hubei were 2,930 and 2,950 respectively. The Shandong price decreased by 20, while the Hubei price remained unchanged. The prices of melamine decreased by 17. The export profit of urea increased by 85 [13]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The profit of fixed - bed production decreased again [28]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventories were 1.1653 million tons, a 32,600 - ton increase from the previous week. Port inventories were 516,000 tons, a 33,400 - ton decrease from the previous week [12]. 4. Supply Side - **Urea Capacity**: There were planned production - increasing devices in some enterprises, such as Anhui Quansheng Chemical, Henan Jinkai Yanhua, etc. [42]. - **Urea Operating Rate**: The supply has recovered, and the domestic urea plant operating rate was 81.22%, a 1.88% increase from the previous week [12]. - **Enterprise Maintenance**: Many enterprises carried out maintenance, including Hebei Zhengyuan Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangxi Xinlianxin Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., etc. Some enterprises also have planned maintenance in the future, such as Shanxi Tianze Coal Chemical Group Co., Ltd. [47][48]. 5. Demand Side - **Consumption Forecast**: There are seasonal characteristics in domestic and international fertilizer demand. The peak season in China is from March to July, while in India it is from June to October, and in the United States it is about one month earlier than in China [111][112]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer operating rate was 38.63%, a slight increase from the previous week, and it is currently mainly producing wheat fertilizer [12]. - **Nitrogen Source Price Ratio**: Attention should be paid to the price ratios of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate [59]. - **Melamine**: The operating rate and profit of melamine have changed, and the export volume also shows certain trends [62][64]. - **Terminal Demand**: The terminal demand is affected by factors such as the real estate market and export volume [70][73]. - **Export**: The export profit is good, and the export volume shows certain changes [80][81]. 6. Option - related - **Urea Options**: The trading volume and open interest of urea options, as well as the PCR of open interest and trading volume, show certain trends. The volatility of urea options also has a certain relationship with the futures price [92][94][101]. 7. Industrial Structure Diagram - **Urea Industry Chain**: It shows the characteristics and structure of the urea industry chain, as well as the research framework analysis [104][106][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates as expected but made a hawkish statement. The short - term sentiment is under pressure, but if the rate - cut process advances, market sentiment is not expected to be significantly suppressed. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight. Although the peak - season demand is mediocre currently, as the long holiday approaches, the downstream stocking demand is expected to increase, providing strong support for copper prices. The short - term price may rise in a volatile manner. This week, the operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M is expected to operate between 9,850 - 10,150 US dollars/ton[12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee for copper concentrates rebounded slightly, the processing fee for blister copper remained flat, and the supply of scrap copper remained tight. Ivanhoe Mines started the second phase of the dewatering plan for the Kakula copper mine and postponed the release of its copper production guidance for the next two years[11]. - **Inventory**: The combined inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 11,000 tons week - on - week. The SHFE inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 106,000 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 148,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 6,000 tons to 287,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased slightly. The spot premium in Shanghai on Friday was 70 yuan/ton over the futures, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a discount of 64.9 US dollars/ton[11]. - **Imports and Exports**: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. In August 2025, China's refined copper imports were 307,000 tons, with a net import of 270,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 2.53 million tons, and the net imports were 2.071 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%[11]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market was relatively mediocre. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed, the substitution advantage of scrap copper decreased, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly[11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: Copper prices rose and then fell. The main SHFE copper contract fell 1.42% for the week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper fell 0.68% to 9,996 US dollars/ton[20]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of electrolytic copper and copper products showed certain fluctuations. For example, the Yangtze River non - ferrous price of electrolytic copper was 80,050 yuan on September 19, 2025[23]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: Domestic copper prices rose and then fell, and spot transactions were relatively average. On Friday, the spot in East China had a premium of 70 yuan/ton over the futures. The LME inventory decreased, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and the Cash/3M remained at a discount, reporting a discount of 64.9 US dollars/ton on Friday. Last week, the spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) fluctuated upwards[26]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profits**: The spot rough - smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrates rebounded slightly to - 40.8 US dollars/ton. The price of sulfuric acid in East China declined, but still had a positive impact on copper smelting revenue[34]. - **Import - Export Ratios and Profits and Losses**: The import - export ratio data was presented in relevant charts. The spot import loss of copper first widened and then narrowed[39]. - **Inventory**: The combined inventory of the three major exchanges was 541,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 106,000 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 148,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 6,000 tons to 287,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 77,000 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease. The increase in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai and Jiangsu, while the inventory in Guangdong decreased. The number of copper warrants increased by 6,278 to 31,838 tons. The LME inventory decrease came from Asian and European warehouses, while the inventory in North American warehouses increased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants declined[42][45][48]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output**: According to SMM research data, China's refined copper output in August 2025 declined slightly month - on - month, and the decline in September is expected to widen to 40,000 - 50,000 tons. According to NBS data, the domestic refined copper output in August 2025 was 1.301 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. From January to August, the cumulative output was 9.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1%[53]. - **Import and Export Situation**: In August 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year increase of 7.3%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 20.054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unforged copper and copper products were 425,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 55,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 3.536 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. The imports of anode copper in August were 62,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 18.2%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 528,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.1%. The exports of refined copper in August were 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 81,000 tons. The profit from domestic spot copper processing trade exports rebounded. The imports of recycled copper in August were 179,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 1.515 million tons, a year - on - year slight decrease[56][59][62][68][71]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: The consumption structures of global and Chinese electrolytic copper were presented in relevant charts[75]. - **PMI**: China's official manufacturing PMI and Caixin manufacturing PMI both rebounded in August, with the Caixin manufacturing PMI rising above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The manufacturing sentiment of major overseas economies improved marginally, with the manufacturing PMIs of the US, the Eurozone, Japan, and India all rising[78]. - **Output Data of Downstream Industries**: In August, the year - on - year output of some copper downstream industries such as automobiles, air conditioners, refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of color TVs, washing machines, AC motors, and freezers decreased. From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year output of power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and AC motors increased, while that of color TVs and freezers decreased[81]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to August, domestic real estate data continued to be weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all showing year - on - year declines, and the declines all widened. The national real estate climate index continued to decline in August[84]. - **Operating Rates of Downstream Enterprises**: The operating rates of downstream copper enterprises showed different trends. For example, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in August rebounded and is expected to continue to rise in September; the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises declined in August and is expected to continue to decline in September[87]. - **Refined - Scrap Price Spread**: The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed, reporting 1,752 yuan/ton on Friday[99]. 3.6 Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Positions**: The total SHFE copper positions decreased by 86,984 to 958,062 lots (bilateral), among which the positions of the near - month 2510 contract were 233,104 lots (bilateral)[104]. - **Foreign Fund Positions**: As of September 16, CFTC fund positions remained net long, with the net long ratio rising to 12.6%. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds rebounded (as of September 12)[107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's interest - rate meeting ended with a 25 - bp rate cut, which met market expectations. The BZN spread increased, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants decreased. The overall valuation is moderately low. - The supply side of styrene faces significant pressure, while the demand side may enter a peak season. The downstream three - S开工率 has a seasonal rebound. Against the backdrop of weak supply and demand, there is a game between strong macro - expectations and weak reality, and the futures price may consolidate at a low level. - This week's forecast: the reference oscillation range for pure benzene (BZ2603) is (5900 - 6200); for styrene (EB2510), it is (6900 - 7200). It is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Policy: The Fed's interest - rate meeting ended with a 25 - bp rate cut, meeting market expectations [11]. - Valuation: Styrene's weekly increase (futures > cost > spot), the basis weakened, the BZN spread rose, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants decreased [11]. - Cost: Last week, the price of pure benzene in East China increased by 0.68%, and the pure benzene operating rate oscillated at a high level [11]. - Supply: The capacity utilization rate of EB was 75%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.90%, a year - on - year increase of 9.17%, and a decrease of 3.85% compared with the five - year average. According to the production plan, there are few production plans in the third quarter, and the greatest production pressure for the whole year is in the fourth quarter. Under the background of high operating rates, the supply side may face pressure [11]. - Import and export: In July, the domestic pure benzene import volume was 5.0788 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.24% and a year - on - year increase of 45.27%, mainly from the Middle East. The EB import volume in July was 221,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.26% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. This week, the pure benzene port inventory and the EB inventory in Jiangsu ports oscillated at a high level [11]. - Demand: The weighted operating rate of downstream three - S was 45.44%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03%. The PS operating rate was 62.50%, a week - on - week increase of 0.97% and a year - on - year increase of 12.71%. The EPS operating rate was 61.50%, a week - on - week increase of 0.79% and a year - on - year increase of 11.52%. The ABS operating rate was 71.00%, a week - on - week increase of 1.43% and a year - on - year increase of 8.50%. The seasonal peak season may be approaching, and downstream demand has slightly improved [11]. - Inventory: The in - plant EB inventory was 215,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.12% and a year - on - year increase of 30.68%. The EB inventory in Jiangsu ports was 159,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.92% and a year - on - year increase of 386.24%. The port inventory continued to accumulate at a high level [11]. - Summary: The Fed's interest - rate meeting ended with a 25 - bp rate cut, meeting market expectations. The BZN spread increased, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants decreased. The overall valuation is moderately low. The supply side of styrene faces significant pressure, while the demand side may enter a peak season. Against the backdrop of weak supply and demand, there is a game between strong macro - expectations and weak reality, and the futures price may consolidate at a low level [11]. - Forecast for this week: Pure benzene (BZ2603): reference oscillation range (5900 - 6200); Styrene (EB2510): reference oscillation range (6900 - 7200). - Recommended strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing styrene spot prices, futures contract prices, basis, trading volume, open interest, and various price spreads from 2021 to 2025, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [14][17][19] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Inventory: Charts show the inventory of styrene in East China ports, factories, and pure benzene ports from 2021 to 2025 [34][35][37] - Profit: The profit of styrene has slightly rebounded. Charts show the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation and POSM processes, the production process proportion, and the capacity proportion of the top ten styrene producers [41][43][46] 3.4 Cost Side - Pure benzene production and supply: In 2025, pure benzene will continue to reduce inventory, especially in the third quarter when the supply gap will increase significantly. There are many new production plans for pure benzene and its downstream products in 2025, with a total planned new pure benzene production capacity of 2.28 million tons [56][57] - Price spread: The US - South Korea pure benzene price spread fluctuates upward with the US gasoline cracking spread. The BZN spread and pure benzene import profit are also affected by relevant factors [63][65][67] - Downstream inventory: The inventory of caprolactam in factories is oscillating at a high level. The downstream demand for pure benzene is mainly from styrene, caprolactam, phenol, etc. [92][95][96] 3.5 Supply Side - Production shortage: Starting from the third quarter of 2025, there will be a shortage of styrene, and the gap may gradually narrow. The total planned new styrene production capacity in 2025 is 242,000 tons, while the downstream demand is large [103][106][108] - Maintenance and production: In September, there are many planned maintenance activities, and the styrene production has declined from the same - period high [115] 3.6 Demand Side - Downstream production capacity: Forecasts of the production capacity of styrene's downstream 3S products (PS, EPS, ABS) are provided, including historical production capacity, output, and growth rates [126][127] - Operating rate: The operating rates of EPS and PS have improved seasonally, and the operating rate of ABS has rebounded from a low level [131][139] - End - product consumption: The production of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners is also presented, which is related to the demand for styrene downstream products [152][160][165]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term bearish, medium - term range - bound [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current domestic supply pressure is significant, with ship purchases covering until December, and soybean inventory at a record high. The cost side lacks clear positive factors, which may trigger a short - term decline. In the medium term, the global soybean supply surplus sets the general direction of selling on rallies. However, due to the relatively low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the soybean meal market will mainly move in a range [9][10][11] 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: US soybeans fluctuated this week, and the global soybean supply pressure has not significantly eased. Brazil is continuously expanding its planting area, and there is no strong growth engine on the demand side. The Brazilian soybean premium was slightly lowered this week. The market expected that the China - US negotiations this week might involve US soybean imports, but the announcement of the leaders' call on Friday night did not mention it. US soybeans fell more than 2% in after - hours trading. Looking ahead, the valuation of US soybeans is relatively low. If China - US soybean trade returns to normal, the Brazilian soybean price may still have a slight downward space compared to previous years. The rebound of US soybeans and the decline of the Brazilian premium may offset each other. Coupled with the expected decline in US soybean yield and trading related to the Brazilian planting season, the space for further decline in China's soybean import cost is limited, but the upside is also restricted by the lack of a significant decline in supply [9] - **Domestic Double - Meal**: Domestic soybean meal spot was weak this week, with stable basis, and the futures market declined following the cost. Domestic trading was average, and pick - up was at a relatively high level. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 9.42 days, slightly higher than the same period last year. As of September 16, institutional statistics showed that the ship purchases were 13.79 million tons in March, 10.29 million tons in April, 11.81 million tons in May, 12.72 million tons in June, 10.69 million tons in July, 9.20 million tons in August, 8.76 million tons in September, and 8.26 million tons in October. The current ship - purchase progress indicates that China's soybean inventory may decline around the end of September. Coupled with the current large - scale pick - up of domestic soybean meal, the market may have stocked up in advance for the Double Festival. The domestic soybean - based basis has certain support under the strong pick - up. It is expected that domestic soybean meal will first see a decline in crushing profit due to the expectation of US soybean imports, then the soybean import cost will stabilize after the trading of Brazilian price cuts and US soybean rebounds ends, and then it will rebound from the bottom during the South American planting season, and the subsequent market will depend on the development of the South American planting season [9] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the market is expected to be range - bound. The current domestic supply pressure is large, and the cost side has no clear positive factors, which may lead to a short - term decline. In the medium term, the global soybean supply surplus sets the direction of selling on rallies, but due to the low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the soybean meal market will mainly move in a range [11] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts, including those showing the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong; the basis of the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal; the price spreads between different contracts of soybean meal; and the fund positions of US soybeans and soybean meal, all sourced from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [17][20][25] 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: The report shows charts of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate from 2021 to 2025, sourced from NASS and the research center of WK Futures [30] - **Weather Conditions**: There is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. The report also presents charts related to precipitation in US soybean - producing areas and Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, as well as the impact of La Nina on precipitation in North America and the climate in South America, sourced from NOAA and the research center of WK Futures [33][35] - **US Soybean Export Progress**: The report shows charts of the total amount of signed US soybean export contracts to China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total amount of signed US soybean export contracts in the current market year, and the cumulative value of US soybean exports to China in the current market year, sourced from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [49] - **China's Oilseed Imports**: The report shows charts of the monthly imports and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China, sourced from customs, MYSTEEL, and the research center of WK Futures [52] - **China's Oil Mill Crushing**: The report shows charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China, sourced from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [54] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: The report shows charts of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills, sourced from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [58] - **Protein Meal Inventory**: The report shows charts of the soybean meal inventory and forecast of major coastal oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of major coastal oil mills, sourced from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [61] - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: The report shows charts of the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseeds along the coast, sourced from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [63] 3.5 Demand Side - The report shows charts of the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills during the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal, as well as the breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and white - feather broilers, sourced from MYSTEEL, WIND, and the research center of WK Futures [65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central price of palm oil is supported by a balanced supply - demand situation in the near term and a tight supply expectation in the fourth quarter. The price of soybean oil fluctuates following palm oil due to high domestic inventory and a decline in soybean prices at the cost - end. Rapeseed oil shows relatively strong performance, possibly reflecting the expectation of a decline in inventory due to difficulties in importing Canadian rapeseed [11]. - In the international market, the USDA September report maintains that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US in the 2025/2026 season will increase by about 1.5 million tons, and the estimated import of rapeseed oil will increase by 260,000 tons year - on - year. India imported about 1.62 million tons of vegetable oil in August, and its inventory accumulated to 1.87 million tons, still some distance from the average safe level of 2.27 million tons in previous years. The global new - crop rapeseed shows a yield - increasing pattern, with the USDA September report increasing the rapeseed yield forecast by 1.38 million tons month - on - month and about 5.2 million tons year - on - year [11]. - In the domestic market, the trading volume of soybean oil is average, and that of palm oil is weak this week, with the spot basis slightly declining. The total domestic vegetable oil inventory is about 500,000 tons higher than last year, indicating a relatively sufficient supply. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will maintain a slightly declining trend at a high level, the palm oil import is expected to remain at a slightly lower - than - neutral level with stable inventory, and the de - stocking progress of rapeseed oil slows down due to high prices. However, due to high - margin requirements for importing Canadian rapeseed, the total domestic vegetable oil inventory will remain high in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium term [11]. - The low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the boost to soybean oil demand from the US biodiesel policy draft, the limited yield - increasing potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to the continuous growth of biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the central price of vegetable oils. Vegetable oils are in a state of balanced or slightly loose actual supply - demand and tight expected supply. They are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium term before the inventory in sales areas and producing areas is fully accumulated and negative feedback from demand in sales areas appears. Currently, the valuation is high. It is advisable to adopt the strategy of buying after the price drops and stabilizes [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: This week, the three major vegetable oils mainly fluctuated, and the net long positions of foreign capital seats also fluctuated. Palm oil showed mediocre performance due to weak export data from Malaysia, with a decline in high - frequency production in September in Malaysia and still no significant increase in exports. Soybean oil fluctuated following palm oil due to high domestic inventory and a decline in soybean prices at the cost - end. Rapeseed oil showed relatively strong performance, possibly reflecting the expectation of a decline in inventory due to difficulties in importing Canadian rapeseed [11]. - **International Vegetable Oils**: The USDA September report maintains that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US in the 2025/2026 season will increase by about 1.5 million tons, and the estimated import of rapeseed oil will increase by 260,000 tons year - on - year. India imported about 1.62 million tons of vegetable oil in August, and its inventory accumulated to 1.87 million tons, still some distance from the average safe level of 2.27 million tons in previous years. The global new - crop rapeseed shows a yield - increasing pattern, with the USDA September report increasing the rapeseed yield forecast by 1.38 million tons month - on - month and about 5.2 million tons year - on - year [11]. - **Domestic Vegetable Oils**: This week, the trading volume of soybean oil is average, and that of palm oil is weak, with the spot basis slightly declining. The total domestic vegetable oil inventory is about 500,000 tons higher than last year, indicating a relatively sufficient supply. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will maintain a slightly declining trend at a high level, the palm oil import is expected to remain at a slightly lower - than - neutral level with stable inventory, and the de - stocking progress of rapeseed oil slows down due to high prices. However, due to high - margin requirements for importing Canadian rapeseed, the total domestic vegetable oil inventory will remain high in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium term [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: The low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the boost to soybean oil demand from the US biodiesel policy draft, the limited yield - increasing potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to the continuous growth of biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the central price of vegetable oils. Vegetable oils are in a state of balanced or slightly loose actual supply - demand and tight expected supply. They are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium term before the inventory in sales areas and producing areas is fully accumulated and negative feedback from demand in sales areas appears. Currently, the valuation is high. It is advisable to adopt the strategy of buying after the price drops and stabilizes [11]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a low level, the absolute valuation is high, the export of Malaysian palm oil is average with high production, indicating average demand in sales areas or high production in Indonesia, and there is a tight supply expectation in the medium term. Global rapeseed and sunflower seed production is expected to increase by 5 million tons and 3 million tons respectively. India and China currently make purchases based on rigid demand, and the relatively low inventory in India may attract palm oil buyers at low prices [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to be bullish. The core driving logic is the factors mentioned above that support the central price of vegetable oils. Currently, the valuation is high, and it is advisable to adopt the strategy of buying after the price drops and stabilizes [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis and seasonal basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, including the basis of palm oil 01 contract, soybean oil 01 contract, and rapeseed oil 01 contract, as well as their seasonal basis charts, to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][20][22][24] 3.3 Supply Side - **Palm Oil Production and Export**: The report shows the monthly production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil and the monthly production and export volume of palm oil and palm kernel oil in Indonesia through charts, which helps to understand the supply situation of palm oil [27][28] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Supply**: It presents the weekly arrival volume and port inventory of soybeans, as well as the monthly import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil through charts, reflecting the supply situation of soybean and rapeseed [29][30] - **Palm Oil Production Area Weather**: The report shows the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil production areas and related climate indices and phenomena through charts, which may affect palm oil production [32][33] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Total Inventory of Three Major Vegetable Oils**: The report shows the total inventory of domestic three major vegetable oils and the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India through charts, reflecting the overall inventory situation [39] - **Profit and Inventory of Different Vegetable Oils**: It presents the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the average coastal spot crushing profit of rapeseed and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, as well as the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and the inventory of palm oil and palm kernel oil in Indonesia through charts, to analyze the profit and inventory situation of different vegetable oils [42][44][45][47] 3.5 Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: The report shows the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil through charts, reflecting the cost situation of palm oil [50] - **Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed Cost**: It presents the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of rapeseed through charts, reflecting the cost situation of rapeseed oil and rapeseed [53] 3.6 Demand Side - **Vegetable Oil Trading Volume**: The report shows the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year through charts, reflecting the trading demand for vegetable oils [56] - **Biodiesel Profit**: It presents the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) through charts, which helps to understand the profit situation of biodiesel and its impact on vegetable oil demand [58]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Maintain a long - position view on crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [1] - For methanol, due to high inventory and the influence of overall commodity sentiment, it is recommended to wait and see as the fundamentals are mixed [4] - Regarding urea, although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of short - term drivers, so it is advisable to wait and see or consider long positions at low prices [7] - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it is recommended to wait and see [12] - For PVC, given the strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is recommended to consider short positions on rallies, while being cautious of short - term upward movements [15] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [19] - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [22] - For polypropylene, with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [25] - For PX, due to high load and expected inventory accumulation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [29] - For PTA, although the de - stocking pattern continues, the processing fee is suppressed, and it is recommended to wait and see [32] - For ethylene glycol, it is recommended to go short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, while being cautious of the risk that the weak expectation may not materialize [34] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures contract closed down 8.00 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.60%, at 491.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed gasoline inventory increased by 0.26 million barrels to 14.37 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.14 million barrels to 9.72 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.12 million barrels to 25.41 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.00 million barrels to 49.50 million barrels [8] - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position view [1] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang dropped 32 yuan, and in Inner Mongolia, it dropped 15 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market dropped 30 yuan/ton to 2346 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 96. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 18 to - 40, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [3] - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to high inventory and the influence of overall commodity sentiment [4] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan dropped slightly by 10 yuan, and the 01 contract on the futures market dropped 11 yuan/ton to 1670 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 2 to - 55, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [6] - **Strategy**: Wait and see or consider long positions at low prices as the valuation is low but there is a lack of short - term drivers [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices dropped significantly with a technical breakdown, possibly due to the expected decrease in rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week but down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons from the previous week [10][11] - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term, but wait and see in the short - term due to technical breakdown [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract dropped 50 yuan to 4923 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4770 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), with a basis of - 153 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton). The 1 - 5 spread was - 305 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton). The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.9%, up 2.8% month - on - month [14] - **Strategy**: Consider short positions on rallies, while being cautious of short - term upward movements due to strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation [15] Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5960 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price dropped 50 yuan/ton to 7150 yuan/ton, and the active contract's closing price dropped 76 yuan/ton to 7062 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of 88 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 133.12 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75%, down 4.70%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.75 tons to 15.90 tons [17][18] - **Strategy**: The BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 57 yuan/ton to 7188 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 7225 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of 37 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 79.5%, down 0.90% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 tons to 49.03 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.30 tons to 6.06 tons [21] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 56 yuan/ton to 6926 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 6875 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of - 51 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.43%, up 0.47% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.45 tons to 55.06 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1.43 tons to 18.83 tons, while the port inventory increased by 0.29 tons to 6.18 tons [24] - **Strategy**: With high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [25] PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract dropped 88 yuan to 6684 yuan. The PX CFR dropped 9 dollars to 827 dollars, with a basis of 92 yuan (up 21 yuan). The 11 - 1 spread was 18 yuan (down 14 yuan). The PX load in China was 87.8%, up 4.1% month - on - month, and the Asian load was 79%, up 2.5% month - on - month [27] - **Strategy**: Wait and see as there is a lack of short - term drivers and the PXN has limited upward momentum [29] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract dropped 46 yuan to 4666 yuan, while the East China spot price increased 10 yuan to 4630 yuan, with a basis of - 77 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 38 yuan (down 2 yuan). The PTA load was 76.8%, remaining unchanged month - on - month [31] - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the de - stocking pattern continues but the processing fee is suppressed [32] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract dropped 29 yuan to 4268 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped 11 yuan to 4362 yuan, with a basis of 83 yuan (up 2 yuan). The 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (down 1 yuan). The overall load of ethylene glycol was 74.9%, remaining unchanged month - on - month. The port inventory increased by 0.6 tons to 46.5 tons [34] - **Strategy**: Go short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, while being cautious of the risk that the weak expectation may not materialize [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, construct a neutral volatility strategy for sellers when the market is range - bound, and a short - volatility strategy for black metals with large fluctuations. For precious metals, build a spot hedging strategy as they break upward [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various metal futures have different price movements, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, copper (CU2511) closed at 79,660, down 0.15% with a trading volume of 8.93 million lots and an open interest of 17.26 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market respectively. For instance, the volume PCR of copper is 0.64 with a change of 0.08, and the open interest PCR is 0.71 with a change of - 0.01 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of each metal option are determined. For example, the pressure point of copper is 82,000 and the support point is 79,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data such as at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes, historical average, call and put implied volatility, and historical volatility are provided for each metal option. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper is 13.02% [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Build a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum/Alumina**: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc/Lead**: Build a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel**: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot covered call strategy [10]. - **Tin**: Build a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Build a long - biased short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy [12]. 3.5.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - covered call strategy [14]. - **Iron Ore**: Build a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: Build a short - volatility strategy [15]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Construct a short - volatility call + put option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [15]. - **Glass**: Build a short - volatility call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [16].

能源化工期权 2025-09-19 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a market trend where the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks decline after rising in the long - position direction, then rebound and rise, and finally fluctuate at a high level [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options gradually rises and fluctuates at a relatively high mean level [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a long - biased buyer strategy and a bull spread combination strategy of call options; for index options, it is suitable to construct a long - biased seller strategy, a bull spread combination strategy of call options, and an arbitrage strategy of synthetic long futures with options and short futures [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Financial Market Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,831.66, down 44.68 points or 1.15%, with a trading volume of 136.6 billion yuan and an increase of 35.93 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,075.66, down 139.80 points or 1.06%, with a trading volume of 176.92 billion yuan and an increase of 39.91 billion yuan [4]. - Other important indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 also showed different degrees of decline [4]. 3.2 Option - related Data - **Option - based ETF Market**: Different ETFs have different closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and trading volume changes. For example, the SSE 50ETF closed at 3.048, down 0.040 or 1.30%, with a trading volume of 13.0486 million shares and an increase of 12.9906 million shares [5]. - **Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR**: Different option varieties have different volume and position PCR values and their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of SSE 50ETF is 0.78, down 0.09, and the position PCR is 0.71, down 0.09 [6]. - **Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points**: Different option varieties have different pressure and support points. For example, the pressure point and support point of SSE 50ETF are both 3.10 [8]. - **Option Factor - Implied Volatility**: Different option varieties have different implied volatility values. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of SSE 50ETF is 19.35%, and the weighted implied volatility is 22.64%, down 0.06% [10]. 3.3 Option Strategies by Sector - **Financial Stocks Sector (SSE 50ETF, SSE 50)**: The SSE 50ETF shows a long - position high - level shock trend. It is recommended to construct a short - biased long - position combination strategy for volatility and a spot long - position covered call strategy [13]. - **Large - cap Blue - chip Stocks Sector (SSE 300ETF, SZSE 300ETF, CSI 300)**: These ETFs show a long - position high - level large - fluctuation trend. It is recommended to construct a bull spread combination strategy of call options for direction, a short - volatility combination strategy of selling calls and puts for volatility, and a spot long - position covered call strategy [13]. - **Large - and Medium - sized Stocks Sector (SZSE 100ETF)**: The SZSE 100ETF shows a long - position upward trend. It is recommended to construct a bull spread combination strategy of call options for direction, a short - volatility combination strategy of selling calls and puts for volatility, and a spot long - position covered call strategy [14]. - **Small - cap Stocks Sector (SSE 500ETF, SZSE 500ETF, CSI 1000)**: These stocks show a short - term long - position high - level large - fluctuation trend. It is recommended to construct a bull spread combination strategy of call options for direction and a spot long - position covered call strategy for SSE 500ETF, and a short - volatility strategy for CSI 1000 [14][15]. - **ChiNext Sector (ChiNext ETF, Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF, E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF)**: The ChiNext ETF shows a high - level shock trend. It is recommended to construct a bull call option combination strategy for direction, a short - volatility strategy for volatility, and a spot long - position covered call strategy [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends across various sectors. Oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, while agricultural by - products, soft commodities, and grains maintain their respective oscillating patterns. It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly based on sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures show diverse price changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) is 3,898, with a rise of 6 and a rise - fall rate of 0.15%; the latest price of soybean No.2 (B2511) is 3,670, with no change [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open - interest PCR of different options vary. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.57 with a change of 0.01, and the open - interest PCR is 0.43 with a change of 0.01 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Each option has its corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure point of soybean No.1 is 3,950 and the support point is 3,900 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different options also shows differences. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 9.91%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.19% with a change of - 0.98% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The fundamental situation of US soybeans has a neutral - to - negative impact. The option strategy includes constructing a selling option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The daily提货量 of soybean meal has increased, and the basis has decreased. The option strategies include a bear spread strategy for direction and a selling option combination strategy for volatility, as well as a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to increase. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The price of peanuts shows a weak consolidation pattern. The option strategies include a bear spread strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs**: The supply pressure of pigs is large. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens is expected to increase. The option strategies include a bear spread strategy and a selling option combination strategy, but no spot hedging strategy [12]. - **Apples**: The consumption market of apples is warming up. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy, but no spot hedging strategy [12]. - **Jujubes**: The inventory of jujubes has decreased slightly. The option strategies include a wide - straddle selling strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The low inventory of domestic sugar supports the price, but the sales volume is lower than expected. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The开机率 of spinning and weaving mills has changed, and the commercial inventory has decreased. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn and Starch**: The corn yield is expected to increase. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy, but no spot hedging strategy [14].