有色金属日报 2026-2-6 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 白银再次走低，铜价继续调整，昨日伦铜 3M 收盘跌 1.42%至 12855 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 101130 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 1925 至 180575 吨，增量主要来自北美仓库，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 维持 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: After the bullish factors of increased production are largely realized in February when the Northern Hemisphere starts to end the sugar - crushing season, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the domestic import sugar supply is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space of sugar prices is limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [3][4]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuates widely at a high level due to the significant fluctuations in the commodity market. In the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and the positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [6][9]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of China's increased purchase of US soybeans drives up the price of US soybeans. For the domestic market, on one hand, the long - term supply pressure increases, and on the other hand, the import cost rises. It is expected that the price of protein meal will continue to fluctuate in the short term [12][13]. - **Oils and Fats**: Driven by the bio - diesel policies of various countries, the consumption growth of oils and fats this year is greater than the production growth rate, and the medium - term price of oils and fats is bullish. In the short term, due to the significant fluctuations in the commodity market, the price of oils and fats fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then go long [15][17]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is about to realize the seasonal increase, which will drive the futures price down. The near - term contracts may show weak fluctuations due to valuation support, while the long - term contracts have positive expectations, but the path to achieve profitability is uncertain. It is advisable to maintain a short - selling strategy [19][20]. - **Pigs**: The large basic supply and the accumulation of live - pig inventories make the spot and near - term expectations pessimistic. The near - term contracts may still be under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. The long - term contracts may have support after following the downward trend, considering the high fat - to - standard price difference, seasonal support, and the expected recovery of consumption demand [22][23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 5224 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5270 - 5370 yuan/ton, up 0 - 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: As of the week of February 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased to 49 from 54 in the previous week, and the sugar quantity decreased to 1.5644 million tons from 1.7826 million tons. StoneX expects a global sugar surplus of 2.9 million tons in the 2025/26 crushing season. India's sugar production as of January 31, 2026, reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's total sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In December, China produced 2.63 million tons of sugar, and the cumulative production in the 2025/26 crushing season was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 720,000 tons. The cumulative sales volume was 1.57 million tons, and the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 31.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 25.56 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 2.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [3]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,610 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 16,012 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: As of the week of January 30, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons. The export to China in that week was 8800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons. The USDA's January forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous year. The US production forecast was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. Brazil's production forecast remained at 4.08 million tons, India's production was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons, and China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's total cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [6][8]. Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2731 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.29% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2238 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day. The spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was 2460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Trump said that China agreed to increase the purchase of US soybeans from 12 million tons to 20 million tons this season. StoneX's latest forecast for Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is a record - high 181 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the January forecast and a year - on - year increase of 13 million tons. As of January 31, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 99.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year and a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the five - year average. The soybean harvesting rate was 11.4%, a 3.4 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year and a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the five - year average. From January 23 to January 30, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.82 million tons, an increase of 350,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 6.71 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week. The sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week [12]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the oils and fats futures price declined. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8104 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 9042 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton or 1.05% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed oil contract was 9144 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan/ton or 1.07% from the previous trading day. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8670 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9940 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: The market's forward - looking forecast for Malaysia's palm oil production in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons from the previous month. The export was 1.42 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous month, and the inventory was 2.89 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The US Treasury Department issued the latest guidance on bio - fuel tax credits, and the public hearing is scheduled for May. The data released by shipping survey agencies ITS and AmSpec showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in January increased by 14.9% and 17.9% respectively month - on - month. From January 23 to January 30, the domestic sample inventory of the three major oils and fats decreased slightly by 60,000 tons to 1.89 million tons [15][16]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: Most egg prices across the country declined yesterday, with a few remaining stable. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.09 yuan to 3.47 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan dropped 0.2 yuan to 3.1 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao dropped 0.18 yuan to 2.82 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the market digestion was slow, and the traders' cautious sentiment increased. It is expected that most egg prices across the country may decline in the short term, while a few areas may see stable prices [19]. Pigs - **Market Quotes**: Domestic pig prices mainly declined yesterday, with some areas showing small increases. The average price in Henan increased 0.14 yuan to 12.36 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased 0.23 yuan to 11.54 yuan/kg. The northern pig - farmers still had the sentiment of reducing sales and hoarding, which may support the pig prices to be relatively strong. The supply in the southern market did not change much, and the demand was also average, so there was no condition for price increase for now, and the prices may remain stable [22].

黑色建材日报 2026-02-05 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3110 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 11 元/吨（0.354%）。当日注册仓单 16931 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 179.82 万手，环比减少 6899 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格 为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收盘 价为 3274 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 9 元/吨（0.275%）。 当日注册仓单 199447 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合 约持仓量为 148.27 万手 ...

周三，此前市场挤出杠杆头寸后贵金属延续周二的震荡修复行情，当前市场处于技术性超跌后 的空头回补与头寸重建，此外就近两天回调幅度来看目前投资者在谨慎试探市场上行阻力位。 2026 年 1 月 ADP 数据显示，美国私营部门仅新增 2.2 万个就业岗位，增幅远低于预期，印证了 劳动力市场的持续放缓。ADP 报告明确指出，私营部门仅新增 2.2 万人，若非教育医疗行业贡 献 7.4 万人的增长形成支撑，整体就业数据将陷入负增长。从行业表现来看，制造业、专业/ 商业服务等非刚需行业持续处于收缩状态，大型企业裁员现象突出，这一态势充分凸显出美国 劳动力市场正在逐步放缓；不过，教育医疗等刚需行业仍保持较强韧性。 由于 1 月非农就业报告的延期发布，ADP 数据大幅不及预期无疑将强化对美国经济放缓的判断， 叠加美联储当前票委的立场占比或将进一步推动市场对于未来降息节奏加快的预期。但另一方 面，教育医疗等刚需行业的稳定表现对经济形成支撑，加之 ISM 非制造业 PMI 也未出现显著恶 化，表明美国经济仍具备一定韧性，美联储的降息幅度或仍将保持相对谨慎。 美国财政部季度再融资声明维持长期国债发行规模不变，且未释放削减长期债券供 ...

农产品早报 2026-02-05 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 组长、生鲜品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 周三郑州白糖期货价格小幅反弹，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5210 元/吨，较上个交易日上涨 43 元/吨，或 0.83%。现货方面，广西制糖集团报价 5260-5340 元/吨，较上个交易日持平。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 StoneX 预计 2025/26 榨季全球食糖市场将维持供应过剩，预估过剩量为 290 万吨。印度全国糖业合作联 盟联合会(NFCSF)发布数据显示，2025/26 榨季截至 2026 年 1 月 31 日，印度食糖产量已达 1930.5 万吨， 同比增加 16.8%。据海关总署公布的数据显示，2025 年 12 月份我国进口食糖 58 万吨，同比增加 19 万 吨。2025 年我国累计进口食糖 492 万吨，同比增加 57 万吨。2025/26 榨季截至 12 月底我国累计进口食 糖 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: In the short - term, the market rotation is accelerating, hot - plate persistence is poor, and trading volume is falling before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and there is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and bond market trading is expected to be stable. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the suppression of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations, and the market is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The market is in a cautious short - covering and position - rebuilding stage after a technical oversold. It is recommended to wait and see, with the Shanghai gold main contract in the range of 1050 - 1300 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver in the range of 22000 - 25000 yuan/kilogram [11]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with some having upward or downward trends based on supply - demand, policy, and cost factors [14][16][21]. - **Black Building Materials**: The black - building materials sector is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track inventory changes, demand recovery, and policy adjustments [34]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy - chemical products have different trends. For example, crude oil is recommended to take profits on rallies, and some products are affected by supply - demand, cost, and geopolitical factors [64][66]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, the short - term outlook for live pigs is pessimistic, while the long - term outlook for cotton is positive [87][102]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The President of China had a phone call with the US President; a new satellite testing and launching technology plant was established; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to break through key technologies; the central bank focuses on credit market work [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have corresponding basis annualized ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the short - term [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: Contract prices changed on Wednesday; the central bank held a credit market meeting; the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors [8]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose; the US ADP data indicated a slowdown in the labor market; the US Treasury's refinancing statement affected the bond market [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices fluctuated, LME copper inventory increased, and domestic spot was at a discount [13]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper [14]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined, and inventory and trading conditions changed [15]. - **Strategy**: If concerns about the US AI narrative ease, prices are expected to stabilize and rise, with reference price ranges [16]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fluctuated, and inventory and basis data changed [17][18]. - **Strategy**: The price is following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute. The trading center may return to the industrial logic [18]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined, and inventory and basis data changed [19]. - **Strategy**: The industry situation is weak, and the panic sentiment has eased to some extent [19]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and cost and supply - demand factors changed [20]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with reference price ranges [21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices fluctuated, and supply, demand, and inventory factors changed [22]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The spot index rose, and the futures contract price declined [24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - position attempt, with a reference price range for the futures contract [25]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The index rose, and inventory and basis data changed [26][27]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range and key factors to watch [28]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [29]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a bullish view, with a reference price range [29]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price rebounded, and inventory and trading volume data changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The price is supported in the short - term [31]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly, and inventory and trading volume data changed [33]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track multiple factors [34]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [35]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to steel mill restocking and iron - making rhythms [36][37]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and spot and basis data changed [38]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to market sentiment and high - volatility risks [40][42]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [43]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with a reference price range [44]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [45]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly and stably in the short - term, with a reference price range [46]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: Prices rose slightly, and spot and basis data changed [47]. - **Strategy**: The market is affected by overall sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [49][50]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [51]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to production cuts and downstream adjustments [54]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [55]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to meetings and spot transactions [56]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: The price is determined by funds, and there are different views on supply and demand [58]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and consider a spread trading strategy [62]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Futures prices rose [63]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [64]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [65]. - **Strategy**: The price has priced in most geopolitical premiums, and there is pressure on the upside [66]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [68]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals [69]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [70]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired, and it is advisable to take profits gradually [70]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [71]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. Pay attention to production capacity and start - up changes [72][73]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [74]. - **Strategy**: There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term, but there is a risk of rebound in the short - term [75]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [76]. - **Strategy**: It enters the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. Be cautious of processing - fee corrections in the short - term and look for long - entry opportunities after the Spring Festival [77]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [78]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. Look for long - entry opportunities following crude oil in the medium - term [79]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [80]. - **Strategy**: The oil price may have bottomed out. The price is supported by reduced inventory, but the demand is in the off - season [81]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [82]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is relieved, and the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. Consider going long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [84]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs** - **Market Information**: Pig prices fell, and supply - demand factors changed [86]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the short - term, and pay attention to long - term support [87]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices mostly fell, and supply - demand factors changed [88]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell in the near - term and long - term, with different logics [89]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fell slightly, and supply - demand data changed [90][91]. - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the price may be bottoming out [92]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [93][94]. - **Strategy**: The price may have bottomed out. Wait for a pull - back to go long [94]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The futures price rebounded slightly, and supply - demand data changed [95][98]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the harvest in February. The domestic price may have limited downside, and it is advisable to wait and see [99]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The futures price fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [100][101]. - **Strategy**: It fluctuates widely in the short - term and may rise in the long - term. Look for low - entry opportunities before the Spring Festival [102].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap from Iran, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and mid - term layout should be the main operation idea [1]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [1]. - For urea, the current situation of internal and external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is recommended to short at high levels [1]. - For rubber, the overall commodity has rebounded, with expected large - amplitude fluctuations. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. Buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 can resume position - building [7]. - For PVC, the overall domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support it, the fundamental situation is poor. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [10]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The supply is wide, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so profit - taking can be gradually carried out [14]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has risen, and the downward valuation space still exists. The coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, supporting the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall operating rate is declining [17]. - For polypropylene, the cost side predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply pressure in H1 2026 is relieved. The demand side has seasonal fluctuations. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [19]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulating pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and there are opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [21]. - For PTA, the supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side is affected by the off - season. It has entered the inventory - accumulating stage during the Spring Festival. The processing fee has increased significantly, and there is a risk of correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Mid - term, pay attention to opportunities to go long at low levels [23]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, the import is expected to remain high in February, and the port inventory - accumulating cycle will continue. The valuation is currently neutral to low, and there is a risk of rebound due to factors such as the tense situation in Iran and coal price rebound [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the INE main crude oil futures closed up 12.60 yuan/barrel, a 2.80% increase, at 462.40 yuan/barrel. The related refined oil main futures, high - sulfur fuel oil closed up 107.00 yuan/ton, a 3.98% increase, at 2797.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 107.00 yuan/ton, a 3.39% increase, at 3268.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still an Iranian supply gap, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and mid - term layout should be the main operation idea [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, regional spot prices changed as follows: Jiangsu decreased by 12 yuan/ton, Lunan increased by 5 yuan/ton, Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei increased by 55 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 23.00 yuan/ton, at 2279 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit increased by 6 yuan [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [1]. Urea - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, regional spot prices: Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, and Northeast remained unchanged; Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/ton; Shanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 17 yuan/ton, at 1787 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current situation of internal and external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is recommended to short at high levels [1]. Rubber - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, multiple commodities rebounded after a sharp decline. The short - term market is priced by funds and has a low correlation with fundamentals. Bulls and bears have different views. Bulls are optimistic due to macro - expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 29, 2026, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises for all - steel tires was 62.41%, 0.29 percentage points lower than the previous week and 54.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 75.35%, 0.08 percentage points higher than the previous week and 53.03 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of January 25, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.2 million tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 84.7 million tons, a 0.4% decrease; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 42.5 million tons, a 0.3% increase. As of January 30, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.09 million tons to 59.12 million tons, an 1.88% increase. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15150 (+200) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1930 (+15) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1920 (10) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 10400 (+50) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 12400 (0) yuan [4][5][6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity has rebounded, with expected large - amplitude fluctuations. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. Buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 can resume position - building [7]. PVC - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the PVC05 contract increased by 84 yuan, at 5155 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4900 (+100) yuan/ton, the basis was - 255 (+16) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 99 (+13) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 700 (0) US dollars/ton, and caustic soda was 590 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.9%, a 0.2% increase from the previous week; the calcium carbide method was 80.6%, a 0.6% increase; the ethylene method was 75%, a 0.7% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.8%, a 0.1% decrease. The factory inventory was 29 million tons (- 1.8), and the social inventory was 120.6 million tons (+2.9) [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support it, the fundamental situation is poor. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6190 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6210 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 7800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7777 yuan/ton, an increase of 116 yuan/ton; the basis was 23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 185.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.63 yuan/ton; the non - integrated EB device profit was - 46.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.1 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.28%, a 0.35% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 million tons, an increase of 0.80 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.56%, a 1.84% decrease; the PS operating rate was 55.60%, a 1.70% decrease; the EPS operating rate was 53.26%, a 5.45% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 66.10%, a 0.70% decrease [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The supply is wide, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so profit - taking can be gradually carried out [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6918 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 35.03 million tons, a decrease of 4.51 million tons; the trader inventory was 2.92 million tons, unchanged. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has risen, and the downward valuation space still exists. The coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, supporting the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall operating rate is declining [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6801 yuan/ton, an increase of 71 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6780 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 21 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 43.1 million tons, a decrease of 3.67 million tons; the trader inventory was 19.39 million tons, a decrease of 1.08 million tons; the port inventory was 7.06 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 117 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply pressure in H1 2026 is relieved. The demand side has seasonal fluctuations. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [19]. PX - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the PX03 contract increased by 100 yuan, at 7180 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 5 US dollars, at 902 US dollars. The basis was - 67 yuan (- 58), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 116 yuan (+10). The PX load in China was 89.2%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 81.6%, a 0.6% increase. The Zhonghua Quanzhou plant was restarting. The PTA load was 76.6%, unchanged. The Sichuan Energy Investment plant was restarting. In January, South Korea exported 40.8 million tons of PX to China, a decrease of 2.5 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of December was 465 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons month - on - month. The PXN was 313 US dollars (+3), the South Korean PX - MX was 150 US dollars (- 1), and the naphtha crack spread was 87 US dollars (- 8) [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current PX load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulating pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and there are opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [21]. PTA - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the PTA05 contract increased by 68 yuan, at 5218 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 60 yuan, at 5140 yuan. The basis was - 62 yuan (+6), and the 5 - 9 spread was 6 yuan (+8). The PTA load was 76.6%, unchanged. The Sichuan Energy Investment plant was restarting. The downstream load was 84.2%, a 2.2% decrease. Multiple plants were under maintenance or restarting. The terminal texturing load decreased by 14% to 52%, and the loom load decreased by 16% to 33%. On January 30, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 211.6 million tons, an increase of 3.3 million tons. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 39 yuan, to 398 yuan, and the on - screen processing fee increased by 9 yuan, to 432 yuan [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side is affected by the off - season. It has entered the inventory - accumulating stage during the Spring Festival. The processing fee has increased significantly, and there is a risk of correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Mid - term, pay attention to opportunities to go long at low levels [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the EG05 contract increased by 21 yuan, at 3788 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 5 yuan, at 3675 yuan. The basis was - 105 yuan (-

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Ethylene glycol still has significant inventory accumulation pressure, with high domestic operating rates and expected moderately high import volumes from February to March. It is likely to experience substantial inventory accumulation during the downstream off - season around the Spring Festival [2][4]. - The previous cold wave narrative was unable to support the upward trend of ethylene glycol. The cold wave had no substantial impact on the devices, and the influence of cold waves on China's overall imports has diminished. Currently, the key exogenous variable is the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [12]. - If the geopolitical issues ease, ethylene glycol will need to compress its valuation to reduce the high operating rate under the pressure of weak fundamentals [2][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Currently, the fundamentals of ethylene glycol remain weak - Ethylene glycol faces significant inventory accumulation pressure, with high domestic operating rates, especially for coal - based plants with good profits. Iran and Kuwait have abundant supplies, Taiwan, China is shipping actively, and Saudi Arabia's production cuts will be reflected later. Import volumes from February to March are expected to be moderately high [4]. - Inventory is likely to increase to historical high levels during the Spring Festival downstream off - season. The inventory decline cycle is expected to start after the maintenance season in March and the restart of the polyester peak season, but the de - stocking intensity will be gentle until the ethylene glycol operating rate is substantially reduced [4] 3.2 The previous cold wave narrative was difficult to support, and the main focus is on the influence of Middle East geopolitics - The cold wave in Texas and Louisiana did not cause extremely low temperatures, only around - 5 degrees Celsius, far from the - 19 degrees Celsius in 2021 that led to the shutdown of chemical plants. So, it had no substantial impact on the devices, and the cold wave narrative ended quickly [12]. - Since the Sino - US tariff issue, the amount of ethylene glycol exported from the US to China has decreased significantly, and its exports have mostly been replaced by those from the Middle East and Taiwan, China. So, the influence of cold waves on China's imports has weakened [12]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is a key exogenous variable. As US exports decline, Saudi Arabia's exports to China have reached a relatively high level. Saudi and Kuwaiti exports are affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. If the geopolitical issues ease, ethylene glycol needs to compress its valuation to reduce the high operating rate [12]

贵金属日报 2026-02-04 周二，贵金属从此前的多头踩踏离场转为震荡修复。在市场挤出杠杆头寸后黄金重回基本面。 首先，美国 ISM-PMI 数据的超预期表现缓解市场对美国经济的担忧，其次，本轮在沃什被提名 后的鹰派预期行情走完后，资金重新聚焦美联储后续降息周期的落地路径。 贵金属 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 4.20 %，报 1108.80 元/克，沪银涨 5.93 %，报 22393.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 6.83 %， 报 4970.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 10.27 %，报 84.92 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.28 %，美元指数报 97.37 ； 白银方面，在前期趋势性上涨过程中，盘面积聚大量投机杠杆资金，叠加宏观预期快速转向、 月末合约移仓换月的双重冲击，资金集中平仓引发踩踏式下跌，完成对高杠杆资金的快速清洗， 当前亦随黄金同步进入杠杆出清后的震荡整固阶段。 此外，现阶段正处于沃什 5 月正式上台前的政策空档期，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰及巴尔金的 鸽派表态为前几个交易日大幅下挫提供了反弹空间。 【策略观点】 周二贵金属结束多头踩踏，转入震荡整理，杠杆出清 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive sentiment, a tight copper - mine supply, and high growth in domestic refined copper supply [3][4]. - Aluminum prices are expected to gradually stabilize and rise as LME aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, despite weak downstream demand [5][6]. - The lead industry's current situation is weak with rising inventories, but the higher - than - expected US ISM manufacturing PMI has alleviated some panic [8][9]. - Zinc prices are currently following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase. After the market sentiment stabilizes, the trading focus may return to the industrial logic [10][11][12]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend but will mainly operate in a wide - range shock in the short term due to the marginal relaxation of supply and demand and rising inventory [13][14]. - Nickel prices are expected to mainly operate in a wide - range shock in the short term as they face fundamental pressure and increasing domestic nickel inventory [16][17][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strongly supported by off - season de - stocking, but due to large market fluctuations, it is recommended to be cautious and observe or take a light - position attempt [20][21]. - Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short term as the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change, and there are multiple dilemmas for continuous rebound [23][24]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to rise as the cost support is strong and the supply is shrinking [26][27]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be supported in the short term due to supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [29][30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - The price of LME copper 3M rose 3.95% to $13,410/ton, and the main contract of SHFE copper closed at 105,180 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1,450 to 176,125 tons, with the increase from Asian warehouses. The proportion of cancelled warrants decreased, and the Cash/3M discount narrowed. SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 159,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong regions was at a discount to the futures, and the spot import was at a loss of about 500 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference widened to 3,280 yuan/ton [3]. Strategy Viewpoint - With the US planning to promote the commercial reserve of critical minerals and China strengthening the copper reserve expectation, along with better - than - expected manufacturing PMIs in the US and the Eurozone, the sentiment is positive. Although the new Fed Chairman's monetary policy is moderately hawkish, long - term prospects are not pessimistic. The copper - mine supply remains tight, and the domestic refined copper supply maintains high growth. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference range of the main SHFE copper contract is 102,000 - 108,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M is 13,000 - 13,800 dollars/ton [4]. Aluminum Market Information - The price of LME aluminum rose 1.39% to $3,099/ton, and the main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 23,865 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted SHFE aluminum contract increased by 0.9 to 676,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased slightly to 151,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, the aluminum rod processing fee fluctuated up, and the spot trading was dull. The spot in the East China region was at a discount of 220 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 495,000 tons [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate and downstream demand is weak in the off - season, it does not constitute a major negative for prices. With the LME aluminum inventory at a relatively low level and the US aluminum spot premium remaining high, aluminum prices are strongly supported. In the context of eased market sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to gradually stabilize and rise. The reference range of the main SHFE aluminum contract is 23,500 - 24,200 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 3M is 3,050 - 3,130 dollars/ton [6]. Lead Market Information - The SHFE lead index fell 0.26% to 16,670 yuan/ton on Tuesday, with a total unilateral trading position of 105,900 lots. The LME lead 3S rose by 13.5 to $1,973/ton, with a total position of 170,900 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingot and recycled refined lead was 16,450 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was at par. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 33,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 204,100 tons [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, high - price silver supports smelting profits, and the TC remains at a low level. The operating rate of primary lead smelters remains relatively high, and primary lead ingots are accumulating. The inventory of recycled waste materials has increased, the profit of recycled smelting has slightly decreased, but the operating rate of recycled lead has increased marginally. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises has slightly decreased. Both smelter finished - product inventory and social inventory have increased, indicating a weak industrial situation. The US ISM manufacturing PMI on February 2nd was higher than expected, which alleviated some panic [9]. Zinc Market Information - The SHFE zinc index rose 1.91% to 24,993 yuan/ton on Tuesday, with a total unilateral trading position of 203,800 lots. The LME zinc 3S rose by 79.5 to $3,348/ton, with a total position of 235,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingot was 25,050 yuan/ton, and the basis in different regions varied. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,900 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 109,100 tons [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the industrial aspect, the inventory of zinc ore raw materials has increased, and the decline of zinc ore prices has slowed down. The accumulation of LME zinc ingot inventory has slowed down, the 3 - 15 month spread of LME zinc has increased, and the SHFE - LME ratio has declined again. The rise in overseas natural gas prices has raised concerns about the cost of European smelters. The new government in Bolivia has halted a zinc - mine development project. Currently, the zinc - copper ratio and zinc - aluminum ratio are at absolute lows. Zinc prices are still in the process of making up for the macro - attribute increase following the sector. After the market sentiment stabilizes, the trading focus may return to the industrial logic [11][12]. Tin Market Information - On February 3rd, the tin price rebounded after reaching the bottom. The main SHFE tin contract closed at 383,340 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from the previous day. The SHFE inventory decreased by 209 to 7,788 tons. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained stable at a high level, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The downstream demand was still weak as the overall price was at a high level, and the terminal industry faced cost pressure [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the short term, the price of precious metals has stabilized and rebounded, and the tin price has also recovered. In the long term, the tin price will maintain an upward trend, but in the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a wide - range shock due to the marginal relaxation of supply and demand and the recent rise in inventory. It is recommended to observe. The reference range of the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is 47,000 - 51,000 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel Market Information - On February 3rd, the nickel price stabilized and rebounded. The main SHFE nickel contract closed at 134,830 yuan/ton, up 4.0% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable, and the cost of nickel ore was stable, while the price of nickel iron fluctuated up [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although the price of precious metals has stabilized and the prices of the non - ferrous metal sector have generally recovered, the nickel price still faces fundamental pressure in the short term, and the upward space is expected to be limited. Due to the high premium of refined nickel over nickel iron and the conversion of nickel iron to high - grade nickel matte, the output of refined nickel in January is expected to increase significantly. The domestic nickel inventory has increased significantly for three consecutive weeks, which significantly drags down the nickel price. It is expected that the nickel price will mainly operate in a wide - range shock. The reference range of the SHFE nickel price is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 18,000 dollars/ton [17][18]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 146,173 yuan in the evening session, up 3.55% from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 5,050 yuan (+3.57%), and the industrial - grade increased by 3.46%. The LC2605 contract closed at 148,100 yuan, up 11.82% from the previous day [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - On Tuesday, the pessimistic sentiment in the commodity market eased, and the market rebounded significantly. The expectation of fundamental improvement in lithium carbonate remains unchanged. Affected by the Spring Festival in February, the production of the cathode segment is expected to decrease by only about 10% month - on - month. After the short - term price risk is released, with the low inventory of downstream enterprises, the bargaining power for pre - festival raw material procurement is low. The off - season de - stocking is expected to strongly support the lithium price. Due to large market fluctuations, it is recommended to be cautious and observe or take a light - position attempt. The reference range of the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 137,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina Market Information - On February 3rd, 2026, the alumina index rose 1.31% to 2,808 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 531,600 lots, down 27,000 lots from the previous day. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 254 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $304/ton, and the import loss was 78 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.72 to 189,400 tons. The CIF price in Guinea remained at $61/ton, and that in Australia decreased by 2 to $58/ton [23]. Strategy Viewpoint - Workers at a mine in Guinea's Boké region have launched an indefinite strike. Currently, production and shipping are normal, and the impact needs to be observed. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The market's expectation of supply - contraction policies has increased, but there are still three dilemmas for continuous rebound. It is recommended to observe in the short term. The reference range of the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 2,950 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to domestic supply - contraction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The main stainless - steel contract closed at 13,585 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 1.23% (+165). The unilateral position was 240,600 lots, down 11,405 lots from the previous day. The spot prices in different markets varied, and the raw material prices were mostly stable. The futures inventory increased by 4,641 to 43,579 tons, and the social inventory increased to 904,500 tons, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 2.86% [26]. Strategy Viewpoint - Last week, market fluctuations increased significantly. The sharp decline in precious - metal prices on Friday dragged down the non - ferrous metal sector, impacting market sentiment. As the Spring Festival approaches, the purchasing enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches is low, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. The supply side has significantly contracted. The cost support of the industrial chain is still strong, and the price has strong support below. The bullish view remains unchanged, and the reference range of the main contract is 13,000 - 14,000 yuan/ton [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The price of cast aluminum alloy stabilized and rebounded. The main AD2603 contract closed at 22,215 yuan/ton, up 1.72%. The weighted contract position increased to 23,900 lots, the trading volume was 23,000 lots, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.08 to 66,900 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 and AD2603 contracts widened. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 decreased, and the price of imported ADC12 decreased by 300 yuan/ton. The domestic three - place inventory increased by 0.01 to 41,400 tons [29]. Strategy Viewpoint - The cost of cast aluminum alloy has stabilized. Although the demand is relatively average, the price is supported in the short term due to continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [30].