能源化工期权 2025-08-14 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro environment is bearish, current oil prices are relatively undervalued. The static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, its valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, domestic demand is currently weak, but its overall valuation is low and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to going long at low prices and wait for potential positive factors [6] - For rubber, the price has risen recently. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 for band trading [13] - For PVC, the supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair. After the high - level port inventory is depleted, the styrene price may follow the cost side and fluctuate upwards [15][16] - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory depletion. The price will be determined by the game between the cost and supply sides in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [18] - For polypropylene, the cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [19] - For PX, it is expected to continue de - stocking, and the valuation has support at the bottom, but the upside is limited in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long following crude oil after the peak season arrives [21][22] - For PTA, it is expected to continue to build inventory, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long following PX after the downstream performance improves in the peak season [23] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals will change from strong to weak, and the short - term valuation is under downward pressure [24] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.34, a 0.54% decline, at $62.74; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.37, a 0.56% decline, at $65.74; INE main crude oil futures closed down 5.70 yuan, a 1.15% decline, at 489.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.04 million barrels to 426.70 million barrels, a 0.72% increase; SPR replenished 0.23 million barrels to 403.20 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 0.79 million barrels to 226.29 million barrels, a 0.35% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 0.71 million barrels to 113.69 million barrels, a 0.63% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.07 million barrels to 19.73 million barrels, a 0.33% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.62 million barrels to 43.74 million barrels, a 1.40% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 13, the 01 contract fell 17 yuan/ton to 2479 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 104 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production has declined again, but corporate profits remain high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventories are rising due to faster unloading and shutdown of port MTO plants. Inland inventories are low due to olefin procurement support. The valuation is high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 13, the 01 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 1747 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 27 [6] - **Analysis**: Domestic production continues to decline, and corporate profits are at a low level but are expected to bottom out. Overall supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and the market is entering the off - season. Future demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports. Domestic demand is weak, and inventory depletion is slow [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [9] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, there is a seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and Chinese demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [10] - **Industry Situation**: As of August 7, 2025, the full - steel tire production rate in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from last week but up 8.72 percentage points from the previous year. Domestic sales were slow, but exports were good. The semi - steel tire production rate was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 4.21 percentage points from the previous year. Semi - steel tire factories had inventory pressure [11] - **Inventory**: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.289 million tons, a decrease of 0.48 tons from the previous period, a 0.4% decline. The total inventory of dark rubber was 804,000 tons, a 0.13% decrease, and the total inventory of light rubber was 485,000 tons, a 0.8% decrease. As of August 11, 2025, the inventory in Qingdao was 487,200 (- 14,000) tons [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 for band trading [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 31 yuan to 5016 yuan, and the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4900 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 116 (+ 21) yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 151 (- 5) yuan/ton [13] - **Analysis**: The overall production rate was 79.5%, up 2.6%. The demand - side downstream production rate was 42.9%, up 0.8%. Factory inventory was 337,000 tons (- 8000 tons), and social inventory was 777,000 tons (+ 54,000 tons). Corporate comprehensive profits reached a high for the year, and the valuation was under pressure. Production was at a five - year high, and downstream production was at a five - year low. Indian anti - dumping policies were extended [13] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices both fell, and the basis remained unchanged [15] - **Analysis**: The macro market sentiment was positive, and there was still support on the cost side. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level for the same period and had a large upward repair space. The production rate of pure benzene decreased slightly, and the supply was still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, but the styrene production rate continued to rise. Port inventory decreased significantly. Demand in the low - season was weak [15][16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [18] - **Analysis**: The market was expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there was still support on the cost side. Spot prices remained unchanged, and the valuation had limited downward space. Trader inventory was at a high level, and the support for prices was weakening. Demand was in the seasonal off - season, and the production rate of agricultural film orders was low. There was a plan to put 1.1 million tons of production capacity into operation in August [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [19] - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the production rate was expected to recover. Downstream production rates were seasonally declining. Only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity was to be put into operation in August. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost side may dominate the market, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 48 yuan to 6784 yuan, and PX CFR fell 3 dollars to 831 dollars, with a basis of 114 (+ 81) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of 64 (- 20) yuan [21] - **Analysis**: The Chinese production rate was 82%, up 0.9%; the Asian production rate was 73.6%, up 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. In August, South Korean PX exports to China decreased year - on - year. June - end inventory decreased month - on - month. The PXN was $264 (- 3), and the naphtha crack spread was $85 (+ 6) [21][22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 34 yuan to 4692 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4695 yuan, with a basis of - 13 (0) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of - 34 (0) yuan [23] - **Analysis**: The PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. Some plants had load adjustments. The downstream production rate was 88.8%, up 0.7%. Terminal production rates were mixed. Inventory increased in August. Spot and futures processing fees increased. New PTA plants were put into operation, but demand from the terminal and polyester sectors was weak [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 26 yuan to 4406 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 8 yuan to 4494 yuan, with a basis of 76 (0) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of - 50 (- 4) yuan [24] - **Analysis**: The overall production rate was 68.4%, down 0.2%. The production rate of synthetic gas - based plants increased, while that of ethylene - based plants decreased. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. Downstream production rates were recovering from the off - season but were still at a low level. Import arrivals were expected to be 141,000 tons, and port inventory increased by 37,000 tons [24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The central government's policies show care for the capital market, with a long - term bullish outlook for the stock market, but short - term volatility may intensify [3]. - In the bond market, interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but may enter a short - term shock pattern [5]. - For precious metals, the Fed is expected to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different trends, with some expected to be volatile and strong, and some facing downward risks [9][12]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices may weaken if demand cannot be effectively repaired, and the prices of related products are affected by supply, demand, and market sentiment [25]. - In the energy and chemical market, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and market sentiment, and different trading strategies are recommended [44][45]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided [56][57]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - News: As of the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the social financing scale from January to July was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. 188 billion yuan in special treasury bonds for equipment renewal investment subsidies has been allocated, driving over 1 trillion yuan in total investment [2]. - Basis ratio of stock index futures: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios. The trading logic is to go long on dips in the long run, but short - term volatility may intensify [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. As of the end of July, M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year, and M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan, up 5.6% year - on - year. The central bank conducted 1185 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [4]. - Strategy: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but may enter a short - term shock pattern [5]. Precious Metals - Market: Shanghai gold rose 0.11%, and Shanghai silver rose 1.12%. COMEX gold fell 0.03%, and COMEX silver fell 0.10%. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.24%, and the US dollar index was 97.77 [6]. - Outlook: The US Treasury Secretary called for more aggressive interest rate cuts, and the Fed is expected to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. It is recommended to buy on dips [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: The US dollar index weakened, and copper prices rose and then fell. LME inventory increased, and domestic spot premiums were firm. - Price trend: Copper prices may be volatile and strong in the short term, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 78600 - 79800 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M in the range of 9650 - 9850 US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - Market: The domestic commodity atmosphere cooled, and aluminum prices fluctuated and corrected. LME inventory increased slightly, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. - Price trend: Aluminum prices may be volatile in the short term, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20550 - 20800 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2580 - 2640 US dollars/ton [11]. Zinc - Market: Zinc prices fell slightly. Zinc ore was in a loose supply situation, and domestic zinc ingots were in excess. - Price trend: Zinc prices still face significant downward risks [12]. Lead - Market: Lead prices rose slightly. Lead ore port inventory increased, and the start - up rate of primary lead recovered. Downstream consumption pressure was high. - Price trend: Lead prices may be volatile and strong in the short term [15]. Nickel - Market: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices rose slightly, but the surplus pressure remained. - Price trend: Nickel prices may rebound slightly in the short term but face correction pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Tin - Market: Tin prices fluctuated. Supply was expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but short - term supply pressure remained. Demand was weak domestically but strong overseas due to AI computing power. - Price trend: Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31000 - 34000 US dollars/ton in the LME market [17]. Carbonate Lithium - Market: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased. The market was affected by supply news and capital games. - Price trend: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders can seize entry points. The reference operating range of the 2511 contract is 82400 - 88880 yuan/ton [18][19]. Alumina - Market: Alumina prices fell. Ore supply disturbances continued, but the over - capacity pattern remained. - Strategy: It is recommended to short on rallies after the short - term bullish sentiment fades. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [20]. Stainless Steel - Market: Stainless steel prices fell slightly. Social inventory decreased, and market trading was inactive. - Price trend: The stainless steel market may continue to consolidate in the short term [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: Cast aluminum alloy prices rose slightly. The downstream was in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. - Price trend: The upward space of prices is relatively limited [22]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fell. Rebar showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and hot - rolled coil showed a pattern of decreasing supply and demand, with both inventories rising. - Price trend: If demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may fall [25]. Iron Ore - Market: Iron ore prices fell slightly. Overseas shipments and arrivals decreased, and iron water production decreased slightly. - Price trend: Iron ore prices are mainly affected by sentiment and fundamentals, and attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand [27]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Glass prices fell significantly. Inventory increased, and downstream demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and follow macro - sentiment in the long term [28]. - Soda Ash: Soda ash prices fluctuated widely. Inventory increased, and downstream demand was difficult to improve quickly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and the price center may rise in the long term [29]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell slightly. The market is affected by "anti - involution" sentiment and fundamentals. - Strategy: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and hedging funds can seize opportunities [30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon prices fell. Supply is expected to increase, and demand can provide some support. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [35]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon prices fell. Supply is expected to increase in August, and inventory is likely to accumulate. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [36]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - Market: NR and RU oscillated. The long and short sides have different views. - Strategy: It is recommended to have a neutral view and operate in and out quickly, and consider short - term spread trading [43]. Crude Oil - Market: Crude oil prices fell. US commercial crude oil inventory increased, and SPR inventory increased slightly. - Outlook: Oil prices are currently underestimated, and it is a good opportunity for left - side layout [44]. Methanol - Market: Methanol prices fell. Domestic start - up decreased, and port inventory increased. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [45]. Urea - Market: Urea prices fell. Domestic start - up decreased, and demand was weak. - Strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [46]. Styrene - Market: Styrene prices fell. The cost side provides support, and the port inventory decreased significantly. - Price trend: The BZN spread may repair, and prices may rise with the cost side after inventory reduction [47]. PVC - Market: PVC prices fell. Supply was strong, demand was weak, and inventory increased. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [49]. Ethylene Glycol - Market: Ethylene glycol prices fell. Supply decreased slightly, demand increased slightly, and port inventory increased. - Price trend: The short - term valuation may decline [50]. PTA - Market: PTA prices fell. Supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate, and demand is expected to improve after the off - season. - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long with PX on dips after the peak season [51]. p - Xylene - Market: PX prices fell. PX load remained high, and downstream PTA maintenance increased. - Price trend: PX is expected to continue to destock, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long with crude oil on dips after the peak season [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market: PE prices fell. Supply pressure is expected to increase in August, and demand is in the off - season. - Strategy: It is recommended to hold short positions [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market: PP prices rose. The cost side may dominate the market, and supply and demand are both weak in the off - season. - Price trend: PP prices may rise slightly with crude oil in July [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: Pig prices rose slightly. Supply is not short, and there is room for future price increases. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on dips for medium - and long - term contracts and pay attention to spread trading opportunities for far - month contracts [56]. Eggs - Market: Egg prices were mostly stable. Supply was large, and the price performance in the peak season was weaker than expected. - Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: US soybeans rose slightly, and rapeseed meal fell from the high. Domestic soybean meal spot basis decreased. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range of soybean meal and pay attention to changes in Sino - US trade relations [60]. Oils and Fats - Market: Palm oil prices rose slightly, and rapeseed oil prices fluctuated. Malaysian palm oil exports increased in early August. - Strategy: Oils and fats prices are expected to oscillate, and the upward space is limited [62]. Sugar - Market: Sugar prices rebounded. Brazilian sugar exports increased in early August. - Price trend: International and domestic sugar supply is expected to increase, and Zhengzhou sugar prices may continue to fall [63]. Cotton - Market: Cotton prices rebounded. The USDA report was positive, and Sino - US tariffs were suspended. - Price trend: Cotton prices may continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [64].

农产品早报 2025-08-14 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周三夜盘美豆小幅上涨，USDA 调低种植面积利多延续。菜粕高位回落，豆粕则跟随外盘成本震荡运行。 周三国内豆粕现货基差下调，华东报 09-170 元/吨，豆粕快速上涨后成交较弱，提货较好，下游库存天 数小幅上升 0.32 天至 8.37 天。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 217.75 万吨，本周预计压榨 236.95 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨预计偏好。巴西方面，升贴水上涨后近两日稳定。总体来看，美国大豆处于低估 值、供大于求状态，暂未出现明确的方向性驱动，近期持续未有利好提供导致美豆可能试探前低水平。 国内大豆进口成本则处于因单一供应来源造成的震荡 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - For iron ore, the current supply - side pressure is not significant during the traditional shipping off - season of overseas mines. There is still demand support, but the short - term upward increase in hot metal may be limited [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the short - term market is affected by emotions, and it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively. Hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situation [10]. - For industrial silicon, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand still exist. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [14]. - For polysilicon, the price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended that both long and short positions participate cautiously [16]. - For glass and soda ash, in the short term, both are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, glass prices follow macro - emotions, and soda ash prices are affected by the supply - side and market emotions, but there are still contradictions in the supply - demand fundamentals [18][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3222 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-1.10%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3451 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-0.94%) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar showed a pattern of both supply and demand increasing this week, and social inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks with an enlarged increase. Hot - rolled coil showed a decline in both supply and demand, and inventory accumulation was significant. Currently, the inventory of both rebar and hot - rolled coil is increasing marginally, while the demand - side support is insufficient [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 795.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.75% (-6.00), and the position increased by 8620 hands to 45.24 million hands [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The latest overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both decreased. The daily average hot - metal output decreased slightly due to blast furnace maintenance. Port inventory fluctuated slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory increased marginally [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Positions**: On August 13, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.59% at 6074 yuan/ton, and the main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.45% at 5794 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term market is affected by emotions. The over - capacity pattern of manganese silicon has not changed, and there may be a marginal weakening of demand in the future. Ferrosilicon has not changed significantly, and there is also a situation of marginal weakening of demand [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon was 8600 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.71% (-240). The weighted contract position increased by 6636 hands to 549,174 hands [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand still exist. In August, the production capacity is expected to increase, and the demand can provide some support, but new inventory pressure may occur [14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon was 51,290 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.98% (-510). The weighted contract position decreased by 6830 hands to 314,523 hands [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August, polysilicon production is expected to increase, and downstream silicon wafer production is also increasing, but the inventory is still at a high level. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price in Shahe and Central China remained unchanged. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 3.95% [18]. - **Market Outlook**: The price adjustment space is relatively limited in the short term, and it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, it follows macro - emotions [18]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price was 1260 yuan, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous day. As of August 11, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8762 million tons, an increase of 0.60% [19]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of copper prices may be oscillating with an upward bias due to factors such as tight raw material supply and positive sentiment, while the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs poses an upper - bound pressure [1]. - Aluminum prices may be in a range - bound state. The support comes from low domestic aluminum ingot inventories and strong external demand, while the pressure is from weak downstream consumption and volatile trade situations [3]. - Lead prices are expected to be in a short - term upward - biased oscillation. The supply is slightly narrowing, and there may be structural disturbances in the LME market, along with potential transportation restrictions due to environmental protection [4]. - Zinc prices still face significant downward risks as the mid - term industry's oversupply situation remains unchanged, despite some market structural changes [5]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate in a short - term due to the current situation of low supply and weak demand on both the domestic and international fronts [6]. - Nickel prices may have a slight rebound in the short - term due to positive macro - atmosphere, but there is still pressure for price correction as downstream demand improvement is limited [7]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply improvement is the focus of the market, and the price fluctuations are affected by news and capital games, with high uncertainty [9]. - For alumina, the over - capacity pattern remains, and it is recommended to short at high prices after the short - term bullish sentiment fades [12]. - Stainless steel is likely to continue its range - bound consolidation in the short - term as the price increase is hindered and the demand has not significantly recovered [14]. - The price increase space of cast aluminum alloy is relatively limited due to the off - season and large futures - spot price difference, although there is cost support [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed down 0.64% to $9777/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79110 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper's main contract is 78600 - 79800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9650 - 9850 dollars/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 875 to 155875 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 to 2.3 million tons [1]. - Market: The domestic copper spot import loss was within 100 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined copper price difference was 1180 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed down 0.53% to $2608/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20655 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum's main contract is 20550 - 20800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2580 - 2640 dollars/ton [3]. - Inventory: SHFE aluminum's weighted contract's open interest increased by 1.7 to 600000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.6 to 55000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.4 to 428500 tons [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed up 0.08% to 16933 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 12 to $2016.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 64300 tons. The port inventory of lead ore increased in August, and the supply side slightly narrowed [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed down 0.07% to 22621 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 12 to $2841/ton [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory continued to increase to 119200 tons. Zinc ore supply is in a loose state, and the domestic zinc ingot remains in an oversupply situation [5]. Tin - Price: On August 13, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 269820 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The expected operating range is 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton for domestic tin prices and 31000 - 34000 dollars/ton for LME tin prices [6]. - Inventory: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 44 to 7430 tons, and LME inventory increased by 15 to 1780 tons [6]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices oscillated narrowly. High - nickel ferronickel's domestic ex - factory price rose to 920 - 930 yuan/nickel. The expected operating ranges are 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel's main contract and 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton for LME nickel 3M [7]. - Market: Nickel mines' prices were stable, and the ferronickel market sentiment improved, but the oversupply pressure remained [7]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC spot index closed at 79832 yuan, up 2.57%. The expected operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 82400 - 88880 yuan/ton [9][10]. - Market: The supply improvement is the focus, and price fluctuations are affected by news and capital games [9]. Alumina - Price: On August 13, 2025, the alumina index closed down 2.4% to 3254 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [12]. - Market: The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price dropped to $367/ton, and the import window was closed. It is recommended to short at high prices after the short - term bullish sentiment fades [12]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13130 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The market is likely to continue range - bound consolidation [14]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased to 1.1063 million tons, with 300 - series inventory decreasing by 2.82% [14]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: AD2511 contract rose 0.3% to 20200 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price rose to 20000 yuan/ton [17]. - Inventory: Domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory slightly increased to 3.16 million tons [17].

金融期权 2025/08/13 金融期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | （1）股市短评：上证综指数、大盘蓝筹股、中小盘股和创业板股表现为偏多上涨的市场行情。 （2）金融期权波动性分析：金融期权隐含波动率逐渐下降至均值较低水平平波动。 金融期权策略早报概要： （3）金融期权策略与建议：对于ETF期权来说，适合构建备兑策略和偏中性的双卖策略，垂直价差组合策略；对于 股指期权来说，适合构建偏中性的双卖策略和期权合成期货多头或空头与期货空头或多头做套利策略。 表1：金融市场重要指数概况 | 重要指数 | 指数代码 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 额变化 | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ...

金属期权 2025-08-13 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属偏多上行，构建卖方中性波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系维持大幅度波动的 行情走势，适合构建做空波动率组合策略；（3）贵金属高位盘整震荡，构建现货避险策略。 | 表1：标的期货市场概况 | | --- | | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural products options market shows different trends. Oilseeds and oils are in a strong and volatile state, while other categories such as agricultural by - products, soft commodities, and grains have various forms of volatile or weak market conditions. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview of Underlying Futures - Different agricultural product options have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, rapeseed meal (RM2511) had a significant price increase of 6.13% with a price of 2,736, while eggs (JD2510) decreased by 0.47% to 3,197.00 [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different options vary, which can be used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and whether there is a turning point in the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean meal (M2511) is 0.76, and the open interest PCR is 0.59 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different option underlyings are obtained. For example, the pressure level of soybean (A2511) is 4,300, and the support level is 4,050 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different options shows different trends and relationships with historical volatility. For example, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal (RM2511) has a relatively large increase, with the weighted implied volatility increasing by 4.45% to 31.65% [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybeans (A2511)**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [7]. - **Soybean Meal (M2511)**: Similar to soybeans, with specific option contracts recommended [9]. - **Palm Oil (P2510)**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. - **Peanuts (PK2510)**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy of put options; Volatility strategy: None; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a long spot position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [11]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs (LH2511)**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - covered strategy: Hold a long spot position + sell out - of - the - money call options [11]. - **Eggs (JD2510)**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy of put options; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. - **Apples (AP2510)**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. - **Jujubes (CJ2601)**: Directional strategy: Construct a bullish spread combination strategy of call options; Volatility strategy: Construct a long - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy; Spot covered - hedging strategy: Hold a long spot position + sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar (SR2511)**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [13]. - **Cotton (CF2511)**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot covered strategy: Hold a long spot position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [14]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn (C2511)**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy of put options; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: None [14].

能源化工期权 2025-08-13 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...