贵金属日报 2026-02-25 贵金属 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 0.30 %，报 1148.14 元/克，沪银涨 1.88 %，报 22179.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.19 %， 报 5166.60 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 0.34 %，报 87.21 元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.04 %，美元指数报 97.88 ； 周二，贵金属延续震荡走势，市场交投情绪谨慎，受美元走强以及投资者在前期涨势后获利 了结的影响价格有所回落。联储官员表态或为震荡走势提供支撑，此前 FOMC 会议纪要显示 部分官员对降息态度较为谨慎叠加沃勒发言释放中性信号整体稍显鹰派，但随后古尔斯比发 言称需看到通胀向 2%目标回落的证据才会支持降息，且其仍对年内"多次"降息持乐观态 度或重新支持金价上行。此外美国关税政策不确定性、地缘政治风险及央行购金行为仍为金 价提供支撑。 COMEX 贵金属库存持续流出。2 月 23 日，COMEX 白银总库存降至 11321.77 吨，单日大幅减 少约 70.1 吨，多家仓库非注册仓单被提取（JP Morgan（-29.98 吨）、Delaware（-15.58 吨 ...

能源化工日报 2026-02-25 | | 原油 | | --- | --- | | | 2026/02/25 原油 | | 能源化工组 | 【行情资讯】 | | | INE 主力原油期货收涨 28.70 元/桶，涨幅 6.18%，报 493.30 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 | | 张正华 | 燃料油收涨 79.00 元/吨，涨幅 2.76%，报 2942.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 192.00 元/吨，涨 | | 橡胶分析师 | 幅 5.84%，报 3478.00 元/吨。 | | 从业资格号：F270766 | | | 交易咨询号：Z0003000 | 【策略观点】 | |  0755-233753333 | 当前油价已经出现一定涨幅，并已经计价较高的地缘溢价。我们认为短期内，伊朗的断供缺口 | | zhangzh@wkqh.cn  | 仍存，但考虑到我们此前地缘系列专题指出委内瑞拉增产即将超预期的预判以及 OPEC 后续的 | | | 增产恢复预期，当前油价应予以中期布局为主要操作思路，但需等待地缘终点爆发以排除尾部 | | 徐绍祖 | 风险。 | | 聚烯烃分析师 | | | 从业资格号 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In Q4 2025, the production and sales of the four major iron ore mines remained at a high level. Vale had a significant year-on-year increase, Rio Tinto's production returned to a high range after recovering from the weather impact in Q1, FMG's shipments increased steadily, and BHP improved quarter-on-quarter. The overall supply rhythm was stronger than that in Q3 [1]. - In terms of production in Q4, Rio Tinto and BHP increased quarter-on-quarter, Vale maintained a high level, and FMG declined slightly. For the whole year of 2025, Vale and FMG contributed the main increments. In terms of sales, Rio Tinto's annual shipments were lower than the mid - point of the guidance target range due to the weather impact in Q1. In 2025, the sales of Vale and FMG increased year-on-year, and BHP maintained a stable release rhythm [2]. - Despite the weather disturbances in Q1, the four major mines achieved overall production and sales growth in 2025 thanks to the strong recovery in the following three quarters. It is expected that the total production of the four major mines will continue to grow in 2026 [2]. Summary by Company Rio Tinto - In Q4 2025, the iron ore production in the Pilbara region reached about 89.67 million tons (100% equity), with a year-on-year increase of about 3.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 6.7%. The production and shipment gaps caused by the cyclone in Q1 were gradually repaired in Q2 and Q3. The annual Pilbara production was about 327 million tons (100% caliber), basically the same as in 2024; the annual shipment was 326.2 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, at the lower end of the guidance range [7]. - In terms of product structure, the sales proportion of SP10 decreased significantly year-on-year. In Q4, the sales of SP10 were about 10.5 million tons (100% equity), a year-on-year decrease of about 50%. The average realized price for the whole year was $82.8 per wet ton (FOB), lower than the 2024 level, affected by both the decline of the price index and the product structure change [7][9]. - The Simandou project achieved its first shipment in Q4, marking the official entry of new supply in West Africa into the realization stage. Rio Tinto set its Simandou shipment guidance target for 2026 at 5 - 10 million tons, and the Pilbara shipment guidance target at 323 - 338 million tons. In 2026, the production rhythm is expected to remain stable [9]. BHP - In Q4 2025 (Q2 of BHP's 2026 fiscal year), the iron ore production of BHP WAIO was about 76.33 million tons (100% equity), a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.7% and a year-on-year increase of about 4.4%. In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, the cumulative production of WAIO was 147 million tons (100% caliber), a year-on-year increase of 1%. The material extraction at the mine increased by 9% year-on-year, and the supply chain bottlenecks caused by the cyclone and railway maintenance have been basically digested. After the completion of the CD3 reconstruction and the promotion of the railway technology upgrade project, the system operation efficiency continued to improve [12]. - In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, the production of Samarco was 4 million tons (BHP's equity caliber), a year-on-year increase of 48%. After the restart of the second concentrator, it has been running stably, and the concentration efficiency and recovery rate have improved. The company has approved the third - stage expansion plan, and it is expected to increase the production capacity to about 26 million tons per year (100% equity) in the next few years [12]. - BHP's annual production guidance target for the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged in the range of 284 - 296 million tons (100% equity). Considering the progress in the first half of the fiscal year and the operation intensity in Q4, it is estimated that it can reach the upper half of the range. BHP is still negotiating the annual contract terms with China National Mineral Resources Group, and the subsequent negotiation progress needs attention [13]. FMG - In the second quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, Fortescue's iron ore shipments were 50.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.6%. In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, the cumulative shipments were 100.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%, setting a new high for the first half of the fiscal year. In Q4, the ore mining volume was 61.4 million tons and the processing volume was 49.8 million tons, operating at a high load. The shipments of traditional hematite were 48.3 million tons, basically the same year-on-year, indicating that the operation rhythm of the main mining areas was stable without obvious capacity disturbances [16]. - In the Iron Bridge project, the concentrate shipments in Q4 were 2.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 44%. In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, the cumulative shipments were 4.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 37%. The project's operation stability has improved significantly, and the concentrate shipment rhythm has become more normalized. As the production line gradually enters a stable stage, the increase in the proportion of concentrate supplements the overall shipment structure [16]. - FMG's annual shipment guidance for the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged in the range of 195 - 205 million tons (100% equity), including 10 - 12 million tons from the Iron Bridge project. Based on the progress in the first half of the 2026 fiscal year and the current quarterly operation intensity, it is optimistic that it can achieve the guidance target [16]. Vale - In Q4 2025, Vale's iron ore production was 90.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.2%. Although it slightly declined from the high in Q3, it was still at a relatively high level in recent single - quarters. The annual iron ore production in 2025 reached 336 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, the highest level since 2018 [20][23]. - In terms of different systems, the production of the northern system in Q4 was 44.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5 million tons, mainly affected by the recoverable resource structure of the Serra Norte mine and phased maintenance; the annual production of S11D reached 86 million tons, maintaining a high - level operation. The production of the southeast system in Q4 was 23.9 million tons, with a significant year-on-year increase. The stable operation of Brucutu and the continuous ramping up of the Capanema project contributed the main increments, and the single - quarter production of Capanema was about 3 million tons, expected to reach full production in Q2 2026. The production of the southern system in Q4 was 13.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase, and the operation of the Vargem Grande and Paraopeba systems improved significantly [23]. - In terms of sales, the iron ore sales in Q4 were 84.87 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, basically matching the production rhythm. The annual sales were 314 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. The company adjusted the product portfolio according to the market premium changes, and the proportion of medium - grade ore and blended ore increased, making the shipment structure more balanced [23]. - Vale's annual production guidance target for 2025 was previously 325 - 335 million tons, and the actual production was 336 million tons, at the upper end of the guidance range. The production guidance target for 2026 is further increased to the range of 335 - 345 million tons. The new production mainly comes from the ramping up of existing projects and system recovery, and it is expected that the increment in the second half of 2026 will be higher than that in the first half [24].

农产品早报 2026-02-25 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 北半球方面，2 月上半月印度产量同比小幅减产，而泰国产量同比小幅增产，二者相互抵消。而目前原 糖价格已经跌至历史低位，且持续贴水巴西乙醇折算价，在今年 4 月后巴西新榨季生产存在着下调甘蔗 制糖比例的可能性，不宜过分看空。国内方面，现阶段高库存依然压制糖价，短线延续观望，待收榨后 供应压力缓解，或有反弹的可能性。 【行情资讯】 （1）据 USDA 数据显示，2 月 5 日至 2 月 12 日当周，美国当前年度棉花出口销售 10.68 万吨，创 2026 年以来单周新高，累计出口销售 198.99 万吨，同比减少 14.29 万吨；其中当周对中国出口 0.4 万吨，累 计出口 9.79 万吨，同比减少 7.41 万吨。（2）据 Mysteel 数据显示，截至 2 月 6 日当周，纺纱厂开机率 为 60.5%，环比前一周下调 3.7 个百分点；全国棉花商业库存 553 万吨，环比前一周减少 12 万吨。（3） 据 USDA 数据显示，1 月预测 2025/26 年度全球产量为 2600 万吨，环比 12 月预测下调 8 万吨，较上年 从业资 ...

贵金属日报 2026-02-24 贵金属 【行情资讯】 春节前一周，内盘截至 2 月 13 日，沪金涨 1.83 %，报 1110.10 元/克，沪银涨 5.23 %，报 19782.00 元/千克；外盘截至 2 月 23 日，COMEX 金涨 3.29 %，报 5247.90 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 6.87 %， 报 88.00 元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.03 %，美元指数报 97.71 ； 春节假期期间，国际现货黄金宽区间震荡，白银表现相对偏强但仍呈震荡格局。此前 FOMC 会 议纪要显示部分官员对降息态度较为谨慎叠加 2 月 23 日沃勒发言释放中性信号，或压制金价 上行空间；但关税政策不确定性、地缘紧张及央行购金行为，为金价提供支撑并推动价格修复。 假期公布数据显示美国通胀回落受阻。12 月 PCE 物价指数同比 2.9%、环比 0.4%，核心 PCE 同比升至 3.0%，均高于预期并高于美联储 2% 目标。2 月 20 日美国最高法院裁定，依据 IEEPA 加征的对等关税违法。特朗普随即依据《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条临时加征关税，短期 150 天内加征 15% ...

张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 20.30 元/桶，跌幅 4.22%，报 460.70 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 76.00 元/吨，跌幅 2.61%，报 2840.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 116.00 元/吨，跌 幅 3.44%，报 3261.00 元/吨。 中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 1.43 百万桶至 199.82 百万桶，环比去库 0.71%； 汽油商业库存去库 2.00 百万桶至 95.00 百万桶，环比去库 2.07%；柴油商业库存累库 3.90 百 万桶至 102.77 百万桶，环比累库 3.94%；总成品油商业库存累库 1.89 百万桶至 197.78 百万 桶，环比累库 0.97%。 【策略观点】 当前油价已经出现一定涨幅，并已经计价较高的地缘溢价。我们认为短期内，伊朗的断供缺口 仍存，但考虑到我们此前地缘系列专题指出委内瑞拉增产即将超预期的预判以及 OPEC 后续的 增产恢复预期，当前油价应予中期布局为主要操作思路，但需等 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term due to continued tight copper ore supply, relatively surplus refined copper supply under high domestic smelting start - up rate and downstream consumption off - season, and emotional support from strong precious metal prices [4][5] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise in the short - term despite large inventory accumulation during the domestic off - season and high delivery pressure on near - month futures contracts, as LME inventory remains at a relatively low level and there are still supports from the industry [6][7] - Lead prices may be supported in the short - term by the expected strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises, but the post - holiday start - up of downstream battery enterprises needs to be observed [9][10] - Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices based on relative valuation in the short - term due to macro - emotional disturbances, but will likely return to the weak industrial reality after the macro disturbances subside [11][12][13] - Tin prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation in the short - term, with a long - term upward trend, but there is pressure for a sharp rise under the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory [14][15] - Nickel prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation with the center gradually rising, with a long - term bullish and short - term bearish outlook [16][17] - The short - term supply - demand tight situation of domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue, and the upstream may have more say in the post - holiday spot game [20][21] - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the future price trend depends on whether the disturbances in the Guinea ore end can materialize and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated [23][24] - Stainless steel prices are still bullish, with a strong cost support at the bottom and the supply pressure expected to ease after the holiday [26][27] - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term due to cost support, improved demand expectations after the holiday, and supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [29][30] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: During the Spring Festival, the US Supreme Court ruled that US tariffs based on IEEPA were illegal, but new tariffs added uncertainty. Precious metal prices rebounded, and copper prices fluctuated. As of February 23, LME 3M copper rose slightly by 0.05% to $12,901/ton compared with before the Spring Festival. Overseas copper inventories continued to increase, and the discount of LME near - month contracts narrowed. Satellite data showed that global smelting activities in January were at the lowest level for the same period in a decade. Domestically, the operating rate of primary processing enterprises weakened before the holiday, and inventories increased seasonally but less than the seasonal average [4] - **Strategy**: Short - term copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile. The reference range for the main SHFE copper contract today is 99,500 - 101,500 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M copper is $12,800 - 13,050/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: During the Spring Festival, geopolitical risks from US - Iran negotiations remained. The US Supreme Court ruled that tariffs based on IEEPA were illegal, and the White House imposed a 15% temporary tariff on global goods. Aluminum prices fluctuated and recovered. As of February 23, LME 3M aluminum rose 0.9% to $3,091/ton. Before the holiday, domestic aluminum futures positions decreased, and warehouse receipts increased. LME inventory decreased by 0.2 to 47.4 tons, and the discount of Cash/3M narrowed [6] - **Strategy**: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to rise. The reference range for the main SHFE aluminum contract today is 23,000 - 23,600 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M aluminum is $3,050 - 3,120/ton [7] Lead - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the domestic SHFE lead index fell 1.39% to 16,700 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the LME 3M lead fell 0.51% to $1,966.5/ton. LME lead inventory increased by 5.42 tons to 28.71 tons. Domestic lead inventory also increased [9] - **Strategy**: The expected strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support lead prices in the short - term, but the post - holiday start - up of downstream battery enterprises needs to be observed [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the domestic SHFE zinc index fell 5.53% to 24,255 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the LME 3M zinc rose 0.76% to $3,378/ton. LME zinc inventory was 10.17 tons, and domestic zinc inventory increased [11] - **Strategy**: Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices in the short - term due to macro - emotional disturbances but will return to the weak industrial reality later [12][13] Tin - **Market Information**: On February 13, tin prices fell sharply. The supply was difficult to increase significantly in the short - term due to the high - level stability of the operating rate in Yunnan and low production in Jiangxi. The demand was still weak as downstream enterprises were cautious [14] - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME tin is $46,000 - 50,000/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [15] Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 13, nickel prices fell sharply. The spot market premiums were stable, and raw material prices were also stable. During the Spring Festival, LME 3M nickel rose 1.1% to $17,435/ton, and LME inventory was basically unchanged [16] - **Strategy**: Nickel prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation with the center gradually rising. It is recommended to buy low and sell high. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M nickel is $16,000 - 20,000/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On February 14, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index rose 5.11% week - on - week. The LC2605 contract price rose 2.15% on February 13, and the Australian import SC6 lithium concentrate price rose 2.82% week - on - week [20] - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand tight situation of domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue. The reference range for the main contract on the GZFE is 139,000 - 164,000 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 13, the alumina index rose 1.1% to 2,843 yuan/ton. The trading position decreased, and the basis and overseas prices were stable. The futures inventory increased [23] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The reference range for the main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On February 13, the stainless steel main contract fell 0.79% to 13,860 yuan/ton. Spot prices were stable, raw material prices were unchanged, and futures and social inventories increased [26] - **Strategy**: Stainless steel prices are still bullish. The reference range for the main contract is 13,700 - 14,000 yuan/ton [27] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the casting aluminum alloy price weakened. The trading volume increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The inventory increased [29] - **Strategy**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [30]

黑色建材日报 2026-02-24 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 春节前最后一个交易日螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3055 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 5 元/吨（0.163%）。当 日注册仓单 19597 吨, 环比增加 2694 吨。主力合约持仓量为 194.24 万手，环比减少 87095 手。现货市场 方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/ 吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收盘价为 3222 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.124%）。 当日注册仓单 332840 吨, 环比增加 34986 吨。主 ...

文字早评 2026/02/24 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、美伊冲突走向愈加悲观，伊朗石油储量为全球第三并控制霍尔木兹海峡，多位分析师预测油价将大 幅上涨； 2、国内 AI 大模型与机器人借春晚实现全民出圈，京东等平台销量数据更是提供了业绩验证； 3、人民币汇率强势升值至 6.89 区间，股债汇三市联动向好，外资回流趋势确立； 4、荣耀将推出首款人形机器人，聚焦消费市场；SK 海力士 DRAM 及 NAND 库存仅剩约 4 周，今年所有客 户的需求都无法得到完全满足。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/9.13%/10.00%/6.60%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/3.80%/10.30%/7.40%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/2.46%/14.22%/10.51%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/6.02%/3.43%/3.89%。 期，据此计算，单日净投放 1135 亿元。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好、美国关税政策反转释放外需预期的背景下，叠加人民币汇率强势升 值带动外资流入、大模型发布潮与机器人出圈，股指有望先迎来一波偏强表现。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In January, the average spot price of natural gas at Henry Hub reached $7.72 per million British thermal units, a significant increase from the December average of $4.26 per million British thermal units, hitting the highest nominal monthly average since September 2022. The price increase was mainly driven by abnormally cold weather in most parts of the US, especially in the second half of the month, which led to a surge in heating demand. The "Finn" winter storm further increased heating demand while natural gas production decreased due to the temporary freezing of gas wells. The large inventory consumption in late January means that the US natural gas inventory will be lower than previously expected at the end of the heating season in March. The EIA has raised the price forecast for most of this year due to the inventory reduction. However, the price increase compared to last month's forecast will moderate later this year. The current high prices are expected to stimulate more natural gas - targeted drilling activities, leading to higher natural gas production than previously predicted. As production increases, the EIA has lowered the price forecast for 2027. After the cold snap subsides, the average spot price at Henry Hub is expected to be about $4.40 per million British thermal units, a 5% decrease from last month's forecast, and natural gas prices may return to calm in the future [3][5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Gas Price - In January, the average spot price of natural gas at Henry Hub was $7.72 per million British thermal units, a significant increase from December. On January 23, the daily price at this hub set a nominal record of $30.72 per million British thermal units. The price increase was due to cold weather and increased heating demand. The "Finn" winter storm increased demand while production decreased. As of the week ending January 30, the combination of strong demand and production decline led to a record - high single - week inventory draw of 360 billion cubic feet. Futures prices suggest that the market believes the supply - tight situation will be relatively short - lived. On January 28, the February futures settlement price was significantly higher than the March price. On February 2, the newly - listed March 2026 contract plunged 25.7% to $3.24 per million British thermal units, the largest single - day decline in 30 years [5][6] Natural Gas Inventory - The EIA expects the natural gas inventory to be depleted by nearly 2080 billion cubic feet this winter (November to March), 7% higher than the five - year average consumption. The heating degree - days in January were 5% higher than the ten - year average and 12% higher than last month's forecast. It is currently expected that the natural gas inventory at the end of the heating season will be 1% higher than the five - year average, down from last month's forecast of 10% higher. All regions in the US saw a decline in inventory in January. As of the time of writing, the inventories in the East and Midwest were below the five - year average, the South - Central region was close to the average, while the Pacific region was 30% above the average and the Rocky Mountain region was 34% above the average. In the week ending January 30, the natural gas inventory had a record single - week draw of 360 billion cubic feet. The cold snap had a significant impact on the South - Central region, which accounted for 44% of the total US consumption that week. The EIA expects the natural gas inventory to be rebuilt faster than the five - year average during the injection season (April - October), and the inventory is predicted to be in a surplus state compared to the five - year average by the end of the injection season in October [11] Natural Gas Production - The cold snap in January led to a decline in natural gas production. From December to January, the daily average production decreased by 4 billion cubic feet (a 3% decline), mainly due to the continuous cold weather in the Appalachian region in the northeastern US. By early February, most of the production capacity had resumed operation. The EIA predicts that US dry natural gas production will increase by 2% (about 2 billion cubic feet per day) in 2026 and another 1% (about 1 billion cubic feet per day) in 2027. The growth rate is expected to slow down in the first half of 2026 due to weather - related shutdowns and insufficient pipeline capacity outside the Permian Basin. With the new pipeline capacity in the Permian Basin coming into operation in the second half of 2026, production is expected to accelerate. In 2027, the increase in the oil - to - gas ratio in the Permian region and the increase in drilling activities in the Haynesville region driven by rising natural gas prices will jointly promote overall production growth. The EIA currently predicts that the daily production of US dry natural gas will reach 110 billion cubic feet this year and exceed 111 billion cubic feet next year [19]