1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The zinc ore's domestic TC has stopped rising, and although the imported TC continues to increase, the low Shanghai-London ratio may significantly slow down the upward rate of the imported TC, alleviating the oversupply of zinc ore. China's zinc ingot social inventory is still in an accumulation trend, while the LME zinc ingot inventory overseas continues to decline, and the Shanghai-London ratio continues to weaken. On the early morning of September 18th, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the monetary policy statement was less dovish than the market expected, cooling the sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will operate weakly in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.01% at 22,049 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 236,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME zinc 3S fell 2 to $2,919/ton compared to the same period the previous day, with a total position of 213,400 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 21,990 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of -65 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis of -65 yuan/ton, Guangdong basis of -80 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai-Guangdong spread of 15 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, China's social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 158,500 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 52,500 tons, with an internal Shanghai basis of -65 yuan/ton and a spread of 5 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 48,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 17,500 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was $24.27/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $46.51/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai-London ratio on the disk was 1.064, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -3,119.55 yuan/ton. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 111 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 315,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 647,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.05%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 367,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 53.78%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.11%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [11]. 3.2 Macro - analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In July 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 346,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of -5.68% and a month - on - month change of 7.53%. From January to July, the total zinc ore output was 2,080,500 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -2.27%. The net import of zinc ore in July was 501,400 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 37.8% and a month - on - month change of 52.0%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 3,034,800 dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 46.2%. The total domestic zinc ore supply in July was 572,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 7.7% and a month - on - month change of 21.5%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 3,446,200 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.5% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In August 2025, the zinc ingot output was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 28.8% and a month - on - month change of 3.9%. From January to August, the total zinc ingot output was 4,469,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.5%. The net import of zinc ingots in July was 20,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 9.6% and a month - on - month change of -46.8%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 216,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -15.1%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply in July was 623,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 22.6% and a month - on - month change of 0.0%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 4,059,300 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.4% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - stage Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.05%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 367,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 53.78%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.11%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [40]. - **Apparent Demand**: In July 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 595,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 7.0% and a month - on - month change of -2.0%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 3,971,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.3% [42]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In July 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 27,200 tons. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 88,200 tons [53]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In June 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a shortage of -42,600 tons. From January to June, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 7,000 tons [56]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, China's social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 158,500 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 52,500 tons, with an internal Shanghai basis of -65 yuan/ton and a spread of 5 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract [61]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 48,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 17,500 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was $24.27/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $46.51/ton [64]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai-London ratio on the disk was 1.064, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -3,119.55 yuan/ton [67]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai zinc decreased slightly, the net long position of investment funds in London zinc increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, it is neutral [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is favorable, with the prices of finished steel products continuing to fluctuate in a moderately strong manner. Overseas, after the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the monetary policy stance is cautious, and a preventive rate cut has begun. In the short term, market sentiment has cooled slightly; in the long term, global liquidity easing is expected to drive a manufacturing recovery, indirectly boosting steel demand. [11][12] - In China, economic data in August slowed down and fell short of expectations, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales performance remains weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. Exports showed a slight decline last week and are in a weak and volatile state. [11][12] - Fundamentally, the output of rebar has declined, apparent demand has increased slightly, and inventory pressure has marginally eased; the output of hot - rolled coils has increased, apparent demand is neutral, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the peak - season demand is lackluster. Overall, although the traditional peak season has arrived, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot - rolled coils have some resilience, they are still weak overall. If the demand cannot be effectively restored in the future, steel prices may still face a downward risk. Attention should be paid to the policy trends of the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session. [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - side - **Production volume**: This week, the total rebar output was 2.06 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.59% and a year - on - year increase of 9.86%. The cumulative output was 81.1297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.04%. The long - process output was 1.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.63% and a year - on - year increase of 7.69%. The short - process output was 0.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.30% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. [6] - **Capacity utilization**: This week, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 90% (unchanged from the previous value), and the electric - furnace capacity utilization rate was 54%, down from 55% in the previous period. [53] - **Hot - metal output**: The average daily hot - metal output this week was 2.41 million tons, the same as the previous value. [58] - **Regional output**: The rebar output in the northern region was 0.4 million tons (down from 0.45 million tons in the previous period), and in the southern region was 0.83 million tons (up from 0.8 million tons in the previous period). The output in East China was 0.83 million tons, including 0.35 million tons in Jiangsu, 0.08 million tons in Shandong, and 0.18 million tons in Anhui. The output in Guangdong was 0.23 million tons, and in Guangxi was 0.08 million tons. [61][64][67] 3.2 Demand - side - **Apparent demand**: This week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1 million tons, compared with 1.98 million tons in the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. The cumulative demand was 78.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. [7] - **Building - material trading volume**: The trading volume of building materials was 117,741 tons (up from 105,098 tons last week), and the trading volume of building materials in Shanghai was 18,400 tons (unchanged from last week). [70] - **Regional trading volume**: The trading volume of construction steel for mainstream traders in the northern region was 20,465 tons, and in Beijing was 8,120 tons. In East China, it was 35,531 tons, including 4,970 tons in Shanghai and 4,900 tons in Hangzhou. In the southern region, it was 31,840 tons, and in Guangzhou was 5,000 tons. In Chengdu, it was 2,620 tons, in Chongqing was 5,000 tons, and in Xi'an was 2,300 tons. [72][73][76] - **Consumption volume**: The weekly consumption volume of rebar was 2.1 million tons, with 0.87 million tons in East China, 0.34 million tons in Southwest China, 0.26 million tons in South China, 0.11 million tons in North China, 0.19 million tons in Central China, 0.17 million tons in Northeast China, and 0.13 million tons in Northwest China. [78][80][83] - **Related prices and trade**: The price of cement (P.O 42.5) in Hangzhou was 465 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 455 yuan/ton. [85] 3.3 Profit - **Furnace profit**: The blast - furnace profit for rebar in East China remained around 22 yuan/ton, and the on - the - spot profit increased slightly. The profit during off - peak electricity hours was - 33 yuan/ton, and the price performance was neutral. [6] - **Electric - furnace profit**: The average profit of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills was - 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton compared with last week. The blast - furnace profit for rebar was 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton compared with last week. [9][39] - **Cost**: The cost of hot - metal was 2,625 yuan/ton, the cost of scrap steel delivered to the factory was 2,257 yuan/ton, and the average cost of hot - metal for 64 steel mills was 2,625 yuan/ton. [9][47] 3.4 Inventory - **Total inventory**: This week, the social inventory of rebar was 4.85 million tons (down from 4.87 million tons in the previous period), a week - on - week decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 36.3%. The factory inventory was 1.65 million tons (down from 1.67 million tons in the previous period), a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 20.0%. The total inventory was 6.5 million tons (down from 6.54 million tons in the previous period), a week - on - week decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 31.7%. The inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.22 million tons, down from 1.29 million tons in the previous period. [8][88][90] - **Regional inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 132 cities was 6.9 million tons, in East China was 3.29 million tons, in Hangzhou was 0.96 million tons, and in Shanghai was 0.37 million tons. In South China, it was 0.72 million tons, in North China was 0.99 million tons, in Guangzhou was 0.18 million tons, and in Beijing was 0.46 million tons. In Central China, it was 0.51 million tons, in Northwest China was 0.5 million tons, in Wuhan was 0.2 million tons, and in Xi'an was 0.22 million tons. In Southwest China, it was 0.62 million tons, in Northeast China was 0.59 million tons, in Chengdu was 0.23 million tons, and in Chongqing was 0.17 million tons. [93][96][99][102] 3.5期现市场 - **Price and basis**: The lowest - warehouse - receipt basis was 28 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.9%. The basis for the 01 contract was 9 yuan/ton, the 05 contract was - 48 yuan/ton, and the 10 contract was 102 yuan/ton. [10][20] - **Spread**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts of rebar was - 57 yuan/ton, between the 05 and 10 contracts was 150 yuan/ton, and between the 10 and 01 contracts was - 93 yuan/ton. The Beijing rebar - hot - rolled coil spread was 290 yuan/ton (up from 250 yuan/ton last week), the Shanghai spread was 140 yuan/ton (down from 190 yuan/ton last week), and the Guangzhou spread was 60 yuan/ton (down from 100 yuan/ton last week). The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 70 yuan/ton (up from 40 yuan/ton last week), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai spread was - 7 yuan/ton (up from - 37 yuan/ton last week). The Beijing premium for spiral rebar was 150 yuan/ton (up from 140 yuan/ton last week), the Shanghai premium was 130 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week), and the Guangzhou premium was 160 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week). [22][25][28][30] - **Other prices**: The price of billets (20MnSi) in Tangshan was 3,130 yuan/ton, the aggregated price of rebar (HRB400E, Φ20) in Beijing was 3,170 yuan/ton, the FOB export price of rebar in China was 471 US dollars/ton, the CFR import price of rebar in Southeast Asia was 470 US dollars/ton, in the United States was 985 US dollars/ton, in the EU was 605 US dollars/ton, and the CFR import price of rebar from the UAE in the Middle East was 640 US dollars/ton. The lowest spot price of rebar was 3,156 yuan/ton, the lowest spot price of coke was 1,438 yuan/ton, and the lowest spot price of iron ore was 936 yuan/ton. [33][36] 3.6 Trading Strategy Suggestion No trading strategy suggestions were provided in the report. [13]

港口库存再创新高， 盘面增仓下跌 甲醇周报 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 2025/09/20 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结 | 行情回顾 | 本周盘面延续下行，周五在伊朗限气消息影响下价格有所反弹，港口库存再度创出新高，周四1-5价差大跌后周五收回，基差 有所走强，目前高库存下价格表现偏弱，市场上涨靠消息驱动，整体仍难有趋势性行情。 | | --- | --- | | |  本周开工79.91，环比-5.52%。 供应  海外开工69.71%，环比回落。市场传伊朗将在10月限制甲醇工厂工业天然气供应。  港口煤炭价格企稳回升。 | | |  港口烯烃装置回归，本周开工83.24%，环比+18.55%，开工回到高位。 需求  传统需求甲醛、醋酸开工小幅回落，其余走高，需求小幅回暖 | | 基本面 |  盘面下跌，基差走强，1-5价差大跌后收回，同比低位。  现货走 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current pig market shows a significant oversupply situation. Spot prices are falling rapidly due to large - scale group and散户 sales, and the future spot trend remains pessimistic. - The fundamentals in 2025 may be weaker than in 2024 due to the continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year. However, the expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction is strong, which may improve the supply situation next year. - Demand may improve marginally at the beginning and middle of September due to school openings, temperature drops, and festival preparations, but it will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches. - The short - term trend of the futures market is likely to remain weak. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts on rebounds and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks. [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: The oversupply has led to a spread of pessimistic sentiment, with domestic pig prices accelerating their decline last week. Group and散户 sales have increased supply pressure, and the future spot trend is still pessimistic. For example, the average price in Henan dropped by 0.5 yuan to 12.96 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 0.84 yuan to 12.36 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong by 1.2 yuan to 13.36 yuan/kg. - **Supply Side**: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, 3.6% more than the normal level. The supply from September to November is expected to increase, but the weight reduction by group factories from June to August may partially offset the supply pressure. - **Demand Side**: Demand may improve marginally in early - mid September but will decline after the National Day. - **Strategy**: Maintain the idea of shorting near - month contracts and conducting reverse arbitrage. For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and short on rebounds for the 11 and 01 contracts. For arbitrage, conduct 3 - 5 and 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage. [11][13] 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - **Spot Trend**: The oversupply has led to a rapid decline in pig prices last week, with group and散户 sales increasing supply pressure. The future spot trend is pessimistic. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price has dropped significantly, the basis has declined, and the month - to - month spread follows the reverse arbitrage logic. - **Prices of Piglets and Sows**: No specific analysis of price trends is provided in the text, only relevant price charts are presented. [22][25] 3.3. Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, 10,000 less than the previous month but still 3.6% more than the normal level. The effectiveness of capacity reduction needs more evidence. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From September to November, the basic supply will increase, but the weight reduction by group factories from June to August may partially offset the supply pressure. - **Slaughter of Different - Sized Pigs**: The proportion of small - pig slaughter has slightly increased, indicating a slight increase in pig diseases. The proportion of large - pig slaughter is not high, and attention should be paid to the fat - standard price difference. - **Other Indicators**: Slaughter volume is increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms is starting to stabilize and rise, showing an oversupply situation. [33][42][45] 3.4. Demand Side - Demand may improve marginally in early - mid September due to school openings, temperature drops, and festival preparations. However, it will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches. [58] 3.5. Cost and Profit - Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost is continuously declining. However, pig prices are the weakest in the same period over the years, and the industry has suffered full - scale losses this year. [69] 3.6. Inventory Side - The frozen - product inventory is slowly rising. [74]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report This week, the social inventory of stainless steel continued to decline, mainly due to the continuous consumption of inventory by downstream rigid - demand procurement and limited arrival resources from leading steel mills such as Tsingshan. The demand side was generally weak, with the traditional peak season starting less than expected. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the willingness to stock up before the festival was generally low. In terms of cost, raw material prices remained high, with high - nickel iron prices remaining strong and chromite prices still on the rise, resulting in limited new supply of ferrochrome and strong cost support. It is expected that the social inventory will continue to decline, and there is room for marginal improvement in the supply - demand structure. It is recommended to mainly place long orders on dips [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: As of September 19, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 13,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.38%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 955 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,200 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,875 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.04%. In September, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.5156 million tons. In August, the crude steel output was 2.9028 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 78,700 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to August was 6.48%. From January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%. In August, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98%. In August, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators/household freezers/washing machines/air conditioners were - 1/2.5/12.3/ - 1.6% respectively. In August, the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry was 19.3%. This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 987,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.51%. The futures warehouse receipt inventory this week was 89,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,217 tons. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong this week was 965 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 71 yuan/nickel [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - The average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi on September 19 was 13,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.38%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 955 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,200 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,875 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.04% [17]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was at a premium of about 25 yuan (+8) compared to the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was at a premium of about 25 yuan (- 42) compared to the main contract. The trading volume on the disk was 278,734 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2.16% [20]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 50 (+25), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 115 (+5) [23]. 3. Supply Side - In September, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.5156 million tons. In August, the crude steel output was 2.9028 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 78,700 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to August was 6.48% [27]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel in August was 1.4336 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. In September, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 783,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.21% [30]. - It is expected that the monthly stainless steel output in Indonesia in July was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.56%. In July, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 46,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46.09% [33]. - In July, the net export volume of stainless steel was 343,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.37% and a year - on - year increase of 20.57%. From January to July, the cumulative net export was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [36]. 4. Demand Side - From January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%. In August, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98% [40]. - In August, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators/household freezers/washing machines/air conditioners were - 1/2.5/12.3/ - 1.6% respectively. In August, the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry was 19.3% [43]. - In August, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 119,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 3.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03%. In August, the automobile sales volume was 2.8566 million units, a month - on - month increase of 10.15% and a year - on - year increase of 16.44% [46]. 5. Inventory - This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 987,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.51%. The futures warehouse receipt inventory this week was 89,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,217 tons [50]. - This week, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 168,100 tons, 617,900 tons, and 201,100 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.93% week - on - week. This week, the floating inventory of stainless steel was 66,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.26%, and the unloading volume was 99,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43.22% [53]. 6. Cost Side - In July, the nickel ore import volume was 5.0058 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.44% and a year - on - year increase of 45.19%. Currently, the quotation for Ni:1.5% nickel ore was 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory was 14.0011 million wet tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.01% [57]. - The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong this week was 965 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 71 yuan/nickel [60]. - This week, the chromite quotation was 56.5 yuan/dry ton, with no week - on - week change. The high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,500 yuan/50 - base ton, with no week - on - week change. In August, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 813,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.55% [63]. - Currently, the gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line was - 623 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reached - 4.54% [66].

旺季底部支撑较强 碳酸锂周报 2025/09/20 曾宇轲（联系人） 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03121027 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 供给端 06 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 02 期现市场 期现市场 ◆ 期现市场：9月19日，五矿钢联碳酸锂现货指数（MMLC）早盘报72987元，周涨2.46%，其中MMLC电池级碳酸锂均价为73250元。同日广期所 LC2511收盘价73960元，周内涨3.93%。 ◆ 供给：9月18日，SMM国内碳酸锂周度产量20363吨，环比增2.0%。锂辉石提锂周产量上升，带动国内碳酸锂周产量创新高。2025年8月国内碳 酸锂产量85240吨，环比增4.6%，同比增39.5%，前八月累计同比增40.4%。2025年7月、8月智利碳酸锂出口数量为2.09万吨和1.69万吨，其 中出口到中国为1.36万吨和1.30万吨，分别同比减少13%和增长6.9%。 ◆ 需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points as expected, but due to overly dovish expectations, commodities and stocks fell after the rate cut. Entering the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the operating rates of the downstream industry chain are gradually increasing but still lower than the same period in previous years. With no new supply, the current domestic cotton inventory is at a historically low level, but there are expectations of increased production in the long - term. Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price of US cotton futures rose and then fell this week. As of Friday, the December contract of US cotton futures closed at 66.3 cents per pound, down 0.46 cents per pound from the previous week, a decline of 0.69%. The spread between December and March of US cotton weakened slightly, at -2 cents per pound, down 0.09 cents per pound from the previous week. Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton fell. As of Friday, the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,720 yuan per ton, down 140 yuan per ton from the previous week, a decline of 1.01%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,319 yuan per ton, down 71 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis strengthened, at 1,528 yuan per ton, up 161 yuan per ton from the previous week. The spread between January and May of Zhengzhou cotton weakened slightly, at 15 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry Information**: As of the week of September 19, the spinning mill operating rate was 66.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous week and down 5.8 percentage points from the same period last year; the weaving mill operating rate was 37.9%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous week and down 14.5 percentage points from the same period last year. The weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.14 million tons, 520,000 tons less than the same period last year. In August 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons. From January to August 2025, China imported 590,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.05 million tons [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: After the Fed's rate cut, short - term commodities and stocks fell. The current fundamentals show that although the operating rates of the downstream industry chain are increasing, they are still lower than in previous years. The domestic cotton inventory is low, but there are expectations of increased production in the long - term. Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: On September 19, 2025, the basis was 1,528 yuan per ton, the spread between January and May of Zhengzhou cotton was 15 yuan per ton, the spinning immediate profit was -1,107 yuan per ton, the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 203 yuan per ton, and the FC index M with 1% tariff was 13,457 yuan per ton, and with sliding - scale duty was 14,258 yuan per ton. The short - term cotton price may continue to fluctuate [10]. 2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, US cotton contract spreads, and external market spreads, to show the spread trends of different periods and varieties [24][26][28] 3. Domestic Market Situation - **Production and Imports**: The report shows the data and trends of China's cotton processing, import volume, US exports to China, and cotton yarn imports through various charts [38][40][43][45] - **Downstream Operations**: It presents the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills, national sales progress, cotton inventory, and spinning mill raw material and finished - product inventory through charts [48][50][53][55] 4. International Market Situation - **US Market**: The report shows the US cotton planting situation, production, yield, planting area, export signing progress, export shipping volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio through various charts [59][61][63][67][69] - **Brazilian Market**: It presents Brazil's cotton planting area, yield, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio through charts [72][75][78] - **Indian Market**: The report shows India's cotton planting area, yield, consumption, import and export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio through charts [80][83][86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the high import volume in China in August and the significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price broke through the support level and declined. The general direction of the sugar price remains bearish. However, considering the abnormal surge in short - term positions and trading volume, there is a possibility of a short - term rebound, so cautious trading is recommended [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: - **External Market**: The price of raw sugar declined this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar March contract was 16.18 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.35 cents per pound or 2.12% from the previous week. The raw sugar 3 - 5 spread fluctuated at 0.41 cents per pound, up 0.01 cents per pound from the previous week. The London white sugar 3 - 5 spread weakened to 0.4 dollars per ton, down 0.4 dollars per ton from the previous week. The raw - white spread of the March contract fluctuated at 93 dollars per ton, up 2 dollars per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Domestic Market**: The price of Zhengzhou sugar declined this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5461 yuan per ton, a decrease of 79 yuan per ton or 1.43% from the previous week. The spot price in Guangxi was 5840 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis fluctuated at 379 yuan per ton, up 19 yuan per ton from the previous week. The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated at 15 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton from the previous week. The profit from spot imports after quota increased to 426 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry News**: - In the second half of August, the cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 50.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.68%. The sugar production in this region was 3.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.21% [9]. - In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 62,700 tons year - on - year. From January to August 2025, China imported 2.612 million tons of sugar, an increase of 121,000 tons year - on - year [9]. - **View and Strategy**: The general direction of the sugar price remains bearish. But due to the abnormal surge in short - term positions and trading volume, there may be a short - term rebound. It is recommended to trade cautiously. The trading strategy is to short at high prices, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended cycle within 3 months, and the core driving logic being high import supply pressure and the expectation of increased production in the new crushing season. The recommendation level is 3, and it was first proposed on August 16, 2025 [9][11]. 3.2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - foreign spreads, raw - white spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratio fluctuations. These charts cover various time periods from 2021 to 2026, showing the trends of different spreads such as the basis between Guangxi Nanning spot and Zhengzhou sugar futures, the spreads between different contract months of Zhengzhou sugar, and the spreads between raw sugar and white sugar [17][20][25]. 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - **Production**: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production in China from 20/21 to 24/25 [41]. - **Imports**: It presents the monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of sugar, syrup, and premixed powder in China from 2021 to 2025 [44]. - **Sales**: The monthly and cumulative sugar sales volumes and sales progress in China from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown [49]. - **Industrial Inventory**: The monthly industrial inventory in China from 2021 to 2025 and the inventory in Guangxi's three - party warehouses are presented [52]. 3.4. International Market Situation - **Brazil Central - Southern Production**: The report shows the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, the cumulative cane - to - sugar ratio, and the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil from 21/22 to 25/26 [57]. - **India Production**: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India from 20/21 to 24/25 are presented [62]. - **Thailand Production**: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown [65]. - **Brazil Shipment**: The sugar inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports from 21/22 to 25/26 are presented [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Expectations are driving the black sector to perform stronger, and ferroalloys will continue to follow the fluctuations of the black sector [1][77][93] - In the short - term, affected by real - demand factors, the black sector may face a downward correction risk after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent overseas fiscal and monetary easing, and China's policy space expansion, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [15][93] - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. It may follow the black sector's trend and is unlikely to have an independent strong market without sudden disturbances from the manganese ore end [15] - Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and it will also likely follow the black sector's trend with a relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [93] 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Report 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights**: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5820 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; futures price is 5964 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton; basis is 46 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton; basis rate is 0.77%. Manganese silicon production profit remains low but has increased in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi. Costs in these regions have decreased. Manganese silicon weekly output is 20.88 tons, down 0.54 tons. Rebar weekly output is 206.45 tons, down 5.48 tons. Daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons. Manganese silicon's apparent inventory is 51.89 tons, up 2.99 tons [14] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis has declined but is still at a neutral level. Production profit has recovered. Rebar demand is weak, while hot - metal output remains high. Apparent inventory is at a high level. Hebei Steel's September tender volume has increased slightly, but the tender price has decreased. The manganese silicon price has shown an upward trend in the short - term but is still within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 6000 yuan/ton and the resistance of the right - side downward trend line [15] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - As of September 19, 2025, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot market price is 5820 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the futures main contract (SM601) closes at 5964 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton; the basis is 46 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the basis rate is 0.77%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics [20] 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon (excluding depreciation) remains low. In Inner Mongolia, it is - 251 yuan/ton, up 113 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, - 338 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan/ton; in Guangxi, - 548 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton [25] - **Production Cost**: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 5981 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, 6038 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton; in Guangxi, 6298 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The price of South African ore, Australian ore, and other raw materials has changed, and the market price of off - grade metallurgical coke has decreased [27][30] - **Manganese Ore Import**: In July, the manganese ore import volume was 274 tons, up 5.97 tons month - on - month and 45.65 tons year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1720.3 tons, up 94.17 tons or 5.79% year - on - year [33] - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: As of September 12, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 452.5 tons, up 9.3 tons month - on - month [36] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon is 20.88 tons, down 0.54 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output has decreased by about 1.57% compared to the same period last year. In August 2025, the output was 90.93 tons, up 8.96 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to August decreased by 26.28 tons or 3.82% year - on - year [44] - **Main Production Areas Output**: No specific output data for main production areas are summarized other than the overall output - **Steel Tendering**: Hebei Steel Group's manganese silicon tender volume in September 2025 is 17000 tons, up 900 tons month - on - month and 6500 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton month - on - month [55] - **Consumption**: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon is 12.14 tons, down 0.09 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar is 206.45 tons, down 5.48 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 0.04% year - on - year. The daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 3.67% year - on - year. In August 2025, the national crude steel output was 7737 tons, down 233 tons month - on - month and 53 tons year - on - year [58][61] 3.5 Inventory - **Visible Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon is 51.89 tons, up 2.99 tons week - on - week, and the inventory level remains at a high level compared to the same period [68] - **Sample Enterprises Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises is 19.89 tons, up 3.21 tons week - on - week [71] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In September, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills is 15.93 days, up 0.95 days month - on - month, and the inventory available days continue to rise but are still at a relatively low level compared to historical data [74] 3.6 Graphical Trends - From September 15 - 19, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 132 yuan/ton or 2.27%. In the daily - line level, the price touched around 6000 yuan/ton and then declined. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 6000 yuan/ton and the resistance of the right - side downward trend line. The key time point for the market may be around mid - to - late October [77] Silicon Iron Report 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights**: The daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 3.67% year - on - year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal is 54.41 tons, down 3.31 tons or 5.73% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export of silicon iron is 23.6 tons, down 1.22 tons or 4.93% year - on - year. The estimated visible inventory of silicon iron is 15.82 tons, up 0.29 tons week - on - week. The basis of Tianjin 72 silicon iron is 64 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate is 1.10%, at a relatively neutral level. The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai has increased. The production cost in main production areas has remained basically stable [92] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a relatively neutral level. The production profit has slightly recovered. The output has remained basically stable. The demand for iron and steel has recovered, but the demand for exports and magnesium metal is average. The steel tender volume has increased slightly, but the tender price has decreased. The silicon iron price has shown an upward trend in the short - term but is still within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 5800 yuan/ton [93] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron is 5800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the futures main contract (SF511) closes at 5736 yuan/ton, up 128 yuan/ton; the basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate is 1.10%, at a relatively neutral level [98] 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia is - 363 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, - 259 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton; in Qinghai, - 346 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton [103] - **Production Cost**: As of September 19, 2025, the production cost in main production areas has remained basically stable. In Inner Mongolia, it is 5713 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, 5609 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton; in Qinghai, 5716 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan/ton. The price of silica in the northwest region has remained stable, and the price of semi - coke small materials has increased [106][109] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly output of silicon iron is 11.31 tons, remaining basically stable week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 1.42% compared to the same period last year. In August 2025, the output is 49.33 tons, up 4.66 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to August has increased by 2.8 tons or 0.78% year - on - year [114] - **Main Production Areas Output**: No specific output data for main production areas are summarized other than the overall output - **Steel Tendering**: Hebei Steel Group's 75B silicon iron alloy tender volume in September 2025 is 3151 tons, up 316 tons month - on - month and 650 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 5800 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton month - on - month [120] - **Steel Consumption**: The daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 3.67% year - on - year. In August 2025, the national crude steel output is 7737 tons, down 233 tons month - on - month and 53 tons year - on - year [123] - **Non - steel Consumption**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal is 54.41 tons, down 3.31 tons or 5.73% year - on - year. As of September 19, 2025, the price of magnesium metal in Fugu area remains stable. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export of silicon iron is 23.6 tons, down 1.22 tons or 4.93% year - on - year. The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron export is - 12 yuan/ton, showing a slight recovery but still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of overseas crude steel is 4.89 billion tons, down 400 tons or 0.81% year - on - year [126][129][130] 3.5 Inventory - **Visible Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of silicon iron is 15.82 tons, up 0.29 tons week - on - week, and the inventory level remains at a high level compared to the same period [137] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In September, the average available days of silicon iron in steel mills is 15.52 days, up 0.85 days month - on - month, and the raw material inventory in steel mills continues to rise slightly but is still at a relatively low level compared to historical data [140] 3.6 Graphical Trends - From September 15 - 19, the silicon iron futures price fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 150 yuan/ton or 2.69%. In the daily - line level, the price continues to oscillate upwards along the hourly - level upward trend but remains within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 5800 yuan/ton [145]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed has initiated a new round of interest - rate cuts, and precious metal prices will continue to strengthen. "Preventive interest - rate cuts" ease the overseas recession expectation, driving the gold - silver ratio down, and silver will outperform gold in this interest - rate cut cycle [1][11]. - The dovish monetary policy stance of new Fed governor Milan on Friday drove silver prices to recover previous losses. The market should pay attention to the possibility of Milan becoming the new Fed chair. The current strategy for precious metals is to buy on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold at 823 - 850 yuan/gram and that for Shanghai silver at 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - **Weekly Review**: Gold and silver prices were strong this week. Shanghai gold rose 0.93% to 838.26 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 2.34% to 10204.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX gold rose 1.05% to 3719.40 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 1.60% to 43.37 dollars/ounce. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.14%, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.03% to 97.65 [11]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Cut**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the monetary policy stance was less dovish than expected. The "risk - management - style" interest - rate cut eased the market's expectation of an overseas economic recession, which is positive for silver with more obvious industrial attributes. The fact that "Trump - faction" governors did not vote against and Powell's statement of "acting with a high degree of unity today" dampened the market's dovish expectations [11]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The "preventive interest - rate cut" will drive the gold - silver ratio down, and silver will perform better than gold as the overseas recession expectation eases and global manufacturing PMI recovers [11]. - **Milan's Statement**: Milan, a new Fed governor, made a very dovish statement on Friday, driving silver prices to recover previous losses. His statement had a significant impact on the market's expectation of the Fed's monetary policy [11]. - **Market Outlook**: After Milan's statement, silver prices were strong. The current strategy for precious metals is to buy on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold at 823 - 850 yuan/gram and that for Shanghai silver at 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3.2 Market Review - **Prices**: Gold and silver prices were strong. Shanghai gold rose 0.93%, Shanghai silver rose 2.34%, COMEX gold rose 1.05%, and COMEX silver rose 1.60% [11][29]. - **Positions**: Domestic and foreign gold and silver positions increased. Shanghai gold's total positions rose 1.33% to 44.89 million lots, COMEX gold's total positions rose 1.29% to 51.62 million lots as of the latest report period. Shanghai silver's total positions rose to 911,000 lots on Friday night, and COMEX silver's total positions rose 3.99% to 163,000 lots as of the latest report period [32][35]. - **Managed Fund Net Positions**: As of the September 16 report period, COMEX gold and silver managed fund net positions declined. COMEX gold's managed fund net position decreased by 4548 lots to 158,900 lots, and COMEX silver's managed fund net position decreased slightly by 49 lots to 35,800 lots [37]. - **ETF Positions**: As of September 19, the total position of gold ETFs was 2229.7 tons, and the total position of foreign silver ETFs was 27,681.17 tons [40]. 3.3 Interest Rates and Liquidity - **U.S. Treasury Yields**: The report shows the trends of U.S. long - and short - term Treasury yields and the spreads between different - term Treasury bonds [51][52]. - **Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations**: The report presents the trends of the U.S. federal funds rate, overnight reverse - repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal interest rate, real interest rate, and inflation expectation [54][55]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: This week, the U.S. Treasury's TGA account balance increased by 13.9557 billion dollars to 80.7142 billion dollars, and the deposit reserve balance decreased by 13.055 billion dollars to 3.02 trillion dollars [57][61]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - **CPI & PCE**: In August, the U.S. CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.70%. The seasonally - adjusted CPI was 0.4% month - on - month, higher than the expected 0.30% and the previous value of 0.20%. The un - seasonally - adjusted core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year, and the seasonally - adjusted core CPI was 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations and the previous value [66]. - **Employment**: The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 13 was 231,000, lower than the expected 240,000 and the previous value of 264,000 [69]. - **PMI & PPI**: In August, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52, higher than the expected and previous value of 50.1 [72]. - **New Home Data**: In July, the annualized total number of new home starts in the U.S. was 1.428 million, significantly higher than the expected 1.29 million and the previous value of 1.358 million. The annualized total number of building permits was 1.354 million, lower than the expected 1.386 million and the previous value of 1.393 million [75]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The report shows the trends of the gold TD - SHFE basis [78][79]. - **Silver Basis**: The report shows the trends of the silver TD - SHFE basis [81][82]. - **Gold and Silver Domestic - Foreign Spreads**: The report shows the trends of the domestic - foreign spreads of gold and silver [84][85]. 3.6 Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventory**: The report shows the trends of silver inventories in different exchanges [91][92]. - **Gold Inventory**: The report shows the trends of gold inventories in COMEX and LBMA [95].