1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The supply of overseas copper mines is facing increased disruptions, and short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias due to support from the strategic resource demand and value, as well as the tight supply of copper mines. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper today is 104,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 13,300 - 14,200 dollars/ton [3][4]. - Aluminum: Although the domestic inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is accumulating, and high prices are suppressing downstream demand, the relatively low LME aluminum inventory and high US aluminum spot premiums provide strong support. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE aluminum today is 24,600 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 3,180 - 3,300 dollars/ton [6][7]. - Lead: The current industrial situation of lead is weak, but due to the impact of winter cooling on the transportation of waste batteries, the raw materials for secondary smelting are tightening, and it is expected that the surplus of lead ingots will decrease marginally [9][10]. - Zinc: The domestic zinc industry remains weak, but due to the sharp rise in overseas natural gas prices and the suspension of a zinc - mine development project in Bolivia, combined with the current low zinc - copper and zinc - aluminum ratios, zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase [11][12]. - Tin: In the short term, the capital game in the futures market determines the trend of tin prices. Against the background of a strong trend in the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors, tin prices are expected to be mainly strong. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 52,000 - 58,000 dollars/ton [13][14]. - Nickel: Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it is not continuously reflected in the explicit inventory. It is expected that SHFE nickel will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference price range for SHFE nickel is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 19,000 dollars/ton [15][16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged, but due to the increase in profit - taking orders and large fluctuations in the commodity market, it is recommended to be cautious and wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 154,000 - 173,000 yuan/ton [18][19]. - Alumina: The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21][22]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material supply is expected to remain tight, the stainless - steel spot market shows a tight pattern, and the price center is expected to continue to move up, but with large fluctuations. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,100 yuan/ton [25]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Although the demand is relatively average, due to continuous supply - side disruptions and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the short - term price is expected to have strong support [28]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Copper - **Market Information**: Overseas copper - mine supply disruptions increased, LME copper 3M rose to a maximum of 14,527 dollars/ton and closed up 4.46% at 13,705 dollars/ton, SHFE copper main contract closed at 106,900 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2,150 tons to 176,075 tons, and the domestic electrolytic - copper social inventory decreased slightly. The spot discount in Shanghai was 170 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong was 235 yuan/ton. The spot import loss of SHFE copper narrowed to near the break - even point, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term copper price is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper today is 104,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 13,300 - 14,200 dollars/ton [4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rose and then fell. LME aluminum closed down 0.92% at 3,233 dollars/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,935 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum - ingot social inventory increased slightly, and the aluminum - rod inventory increased by about 12,000 tons. The LME aluminum - ingot inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 498,000 tons [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE aluminum today is 24,600 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 3,180 - 3,300 dollars/ton [7]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the SHFE lead index closed up 1.13% at 17,208 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 20.5 dollars to 2,046 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead - ingot average price was 16,775 yuan/ton. The domestic lead - ingot social inventory increased by 3,500 tons to 38,400 tons on January 29th [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial situation of lead is weak, but the surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 1.42% at 25,979 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 48.5 dollars to 3,461.5 dollars/ton. The SMM0 zinc - ingot average price was 25,290 yuan/ton. The domestic zinc - ingot social inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 107,400 tons on January 29th [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry remains weak, but zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 29th, the tin price fluctuated within a narrow range, and the SHFE tin main contract closed at 446,130 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The supply is difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and the downstream inventory is generally low, with a concentrated release of rigid - demand restocking demand after the tin - price decline last week. The national main - market tin - ingot social inventory was 11,001 tons on January 23rd, an increase of 365 tons [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to be mainly strong in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 52,000 - 58,000 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 29th, the nickel price fluctuated, and the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 147,470 yuan/ton, up 1.89%. The spot - market premium of each brand remained stable, and the cost of nickel ore and the price of nickel iron remained stable [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: SHFE nickel is expected to continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference price range for SHFE nickel is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 19,000 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC lithium - carbonate spot index closed at 164,501 yuan, down 2.56%. The lithium - carbonate futures rose and then fell, and the LC2605 contract closed at 164,820 yuan, down 0.88%. The SMM weekly inventory was 107,482 tons, down 1,414 tons [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 154,000 - 173,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 29th, the alumina index rose 0.21% to 2,814 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 261 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was 304 dollars/ton, and the import loss was 78 yuan/ton. The futures inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 161,500 tons [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,900 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,585 yuan/ton on Thursday, up 0.83%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets showed different trends, and the raw - material prices were mostly stable. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased to 904,500 tons on January 23rd, a 2.91% increase [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The raw material supply is expected to remain tight, the stainless - steel spot market shows a tight pattern, and the price center is expected to continue to move up, but with large fluctuations. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,100 yuan/ton [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated upward, and the main AD2603 contract closed up 0.27% at 23,850 yuan/ton. The weighted - contract position increased, and the volume remained high. The domestic mainstream - market inventory of aluminum - alloy ingots and the in - plant inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term price is expected to have strong support [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, it is recommended to take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [3] - For methanol, considering its low current valuation and improved future outlook, there is limited downside. With geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long at dips [4] - For urea, due to open import windows and expected start - up recovery at the end of January, it is advisable to short on rallies [7] - For rubber, the chemical sector is short - term strong. Rubber has weak seasonality, so beware of RU price drops. Adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term on the market, and go short if RU2605 breaks below 16000. Partially build a position for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13] - For PVC, in the context of strong domestic supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals, short - term factors support it, but in the medium - term, short on rallies is the main strategy [16] - For pure benzene and styrene, as styrene non - integrated profits have been significantly repaired, it is time to gradually take profit [19] - For polyethylene, with OPEC+ plans and inventory changes, although PE valuation has room to decline, there is support for the price. In the seasonal off - season, the overall demand is weak [22] - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure, wait for the supply - surplus pattern to change in the first quarter of next year. Go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at dips [25] - For PX, it is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil at dips [28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Look for opportunities to go long at dips [31] - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing high inventory and high - load pressure. Without further domestic production cuts, the valuation is expected to be compressed [34] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 16.80 yuan/barrel, or 3.69%, to 472.50 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures also had significant increases. US EIA weekly data showed changes in crude oil and refined product inventories, such as a 2.29 - million - barrel draw in commercial crude oil inventories to 423.75 million barrels [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different regions had different changes, with the main futures contract rising 29.00 yuan/ton to 2352 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changing by 17 yuan [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Given its low current valuation and improved future outlook, with geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long at dips [4] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes varied, with the overall basis at - 67 yuan/ton, and the main futures contract rising 18 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton [6] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to open import windows and expected start - up recovery at the end of January, short on rallies [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: The chemical sector showed a volatile rebound. There were different views on natural rubber from bulls and bears. As of January 22, 2026, tire enterprise operating rates and rubber inventories were reported. Spot prices of some rubber products also changed [10][11][12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The chemical sector is short - term strong. Rubber has weak seasonality, so beware of RU price drops. Adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term on the market, and go short if RU2605 breaks below 16000. Partially build a position for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 18 yuan to 4895 yuan, with changes in spot prices, basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. Cost - end prices and production and demand - end data also changed, such as a decline in overall production rate and an increase in social inventory [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of strong domestic supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals, short - term factors support it, but in the medium - term, short on rallies is the main strategy [16] Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: There were changes in the prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene, as well as changes in upstream and downstream operating rates and port inventories. For example, the upstream operating rate of pure benzene decreased by 1.23% to 69.63%, and the port inventory of styrene increased by 0.71 million tons to 10.06 million tons [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: As styrene non - integrated profits have been significantly repaired, it is time to gradually take profit [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polyethylene rose 82 yuan/ton to 7049 yuan/ton, with changes in spot prices, basis, upstream operating rates, and inventory. The upstream operating rate increased by 1.23% to 81.56%, and production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 million tons [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With OPEC+ plans and inventory changes, although PE valuation has room to decline, there is support for the price. In the seasonal off - season, the overall demand is weak [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polypropylene rose 92 yuan/ton to 6870 yuan/ton, with changes in spot prices, basis, upstream operating rates, and inventory. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly by 0.01% to 76.61%, and various inventories decreased [23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure, wait for the supply - surplus pattern to change in the first quarter of next year. Go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at dips [25] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 12 yuan to 7380 yuan, with changes in CFR price, basis, 3 - 5 spread, etc. PX and PTA operating rates and inventory data were also reported. For example, China's PX operating rate increased by 0.3% to 89.2% [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil at dips [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 38 yuan to 5332 yuan, with changes in spot prices, basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. PTA and downstream operating rates and inventory data were reported. The downstream operating rate decreased by 1.7% to 84.7% [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Look for opportunities to go long at dips [31] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 13 yuan to 3957 yuan, with changes in spot prices, basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. Supply - and demand - end operating rates and inventory data were reported. The supply - end operating rate increased by 1.4% to 74.4%, and the port inventory increased by 6.3 million tons [33] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is facing high inventory and high - load pressure. Without further domestic production cuts, the valuation is expected to be compressed [34]

专题报告 2026-01-30 钢材：从地产约束到信用改善 报告要点： 近期，万科债务展期的平稳落地与监管层不再硬性要求房企上报"三条红线"指标，标志着房 地产行业运行逻辑发生了根本性逆转。黑色金属行业作为其核心上游，过去三年锚定的"信用 收缩-开工坍塌"负反馈环路正在解体。我们认为，当前黑色系品种正处于由悲观预期出清向 信用溢价修复的切换期，市场需重新评估下游需求韧性与定价结构变化。 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 赵 航（联系人） 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 陈张滢 黑色金属研究 | 钢材 1.黑色顶压前行，结构呈现韧性 2026 年是"十五五"规划的开局之年。在 2025 年我国 GDP 突破 140 万亿元、经济 增速保持 5.0%的背景下，宏观运行正由总量扩张转向结构优化与动能切换。作为 国民经济的重要基础行业，黑色金属需求逻辑正经历从"地产主导"向"制造业与 新型基建驱动"的深刻重构。近期万科债券展期方案的成功落地，在阶段性缓释 ...

钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 在美联储人事方面，特朗普宣布计划下周公布接替联储主席鲍威尔的人选，且他认为当前利率 应当下降 2-3 个百分点。 本次联储议息会议决定维持利率在 3.50%-3.75% 区间不变，未进行降息，货币政策表态谨慎， 符合市场预期。但投票结果中沃勒投下反对票支持降息 25bps 超市场预期鸽派，贝森特表明 将在一周左右公布新任联储主席提名，沃勒此举渴望得到特朗普的关注，会议后 Kalshi 显示 市场对沃勒被提名新任联储主席的概率预测由 8% 上升至 15%，这再度冲击美联储货币政策独 立性，叠加此前特朗普关于美元汇率的"悠悠球"言论和贝森特昨晚与之矛盾的"奉行强美元 政策"言论，美元信用再度弱化，金价表现极为强势，再创历史新高。 贵金属日报 2026-01-30 贵金属 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 1.38 %，报 1202.00 元/克，沪银涨 2.10 %，报 30358.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 5453.00 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No mention in the report Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the start of the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space of sugar price may be limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [4] - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the planting area in the new year and the positive macro - economic outlook, there is still room for cotton price to rise. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [8] - For protein meal, affected by the sudden news from Canada, the price of rapeseed meal rebounded. The January USDA report data is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is still better than that of the 2024/25 season. From the weekly sample data, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the protein meal price may be bottoming out [12] - For oils and fats, affected by the sudden news from Canada and the year - on - year decline in Malaysian palm oil production in January, the price of oils and fats rose significantly yesterday. In addition, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats has been decreasing month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving. Wait for a pullback and then try to go long [17] - For eggs, the pre - festival stocking sentiment has boosted the spot price increase beyond expectations. The near - month contracts are driven to fluctuate strongly, but the overall supply is still abundant, and the demand is about to meet expectations. The near - month contracts have post - festival attributes and may fluctuate mainly. In the future, more attention should be paid to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end has a long - term positive expectation due to the peak of production capacity, but after the profit is given too early, the realization path is still uncertain. Pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valuation [19] - For pigs, the demand support and the market's reluctance to sell due to the high fat - to - standard price difference support the limited short - term decline of the spot price. However, the expectation of inventory accumulation and the upcoming pre - festival supply release lead to the early weakening of the futures market. Considering the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival in the first half of the year and the expectation of inventory postponement, the futures discount is logical. There may still be short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Due to the limited reduction of production capacity, the improvement space of the far - end fundamentals is revised down. Pay attention to the lower support after the long - term decline [22] Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,257 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 1.35% from the previous trading day. The quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,290 - 5,370 yuan/ton, up 40 - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder. In 2025, the cumulative imports were 1.1888 million tons. As of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output reached 15.909 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 22%. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 to 518 compared with the same period last year [2][3] - **Strategy**: Wait and see for now [4] Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated at a high level. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 16,103 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. As of January 24, the planting rate of cotton in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9%. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. As of the week of January 23, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.6%, flat compared with the previous week and an increase of 26.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7 million tons, an increase of 460,000 tons year - on - year. The January 2025/26 global cotton production forecast was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous season. The January forecast of US cotton production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. Brazil's production forecast remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; India's production was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 8 to January 15, the US current - year cotton export sales were 97,300 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 166,000 tons. Among them, the export to China in that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 88,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72,100 tons [5][6][7] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [8] Protein Meal - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the protein meal futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,802 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton or 0.72% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,325 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton or 1.22% from the previous trading day. The spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was 3,120 yuan/ton, flat compared with the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was 2,520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From January 8 to January 15, the US exported 2.45 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.03 million tons. Among them, the export of soybeans to China in that week was 1.3 million tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 9.42 million tons. From January 16 to January 23, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week. The January 2025/26 global soybean production forecast was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared with December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous season. The January forecast of US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast of Brazil's production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast of Argentina's production was 48.5 million tons, flat compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons compared with the previous season. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume was slightly revised down by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast [10][11] - **Strategy**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out [12] Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the oils and fats futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,382 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,362 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan/ton or 0.99% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,446 yuan/ton, up 116 yuan/ton or 1.24% from the previous trading day. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,360 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,170 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From January 1 to 20, the production of crude palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 14.43% compared with the same period of the previous month. From January 16 to January 23, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats decreased slightly by 30,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and maintained the current B40 plan. The January US soybean oil consumption forecast was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous season. In December, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November [14][16] - **Strategy**: Wait for a pullback and then try to go long [17] Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the national egg price was generally stable with slight increases. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.01 yuan to 3.97 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 3.7 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained at 3.62 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the overall market digestion slowed down, and the terminal caution increased. It is expected that the national egg price will remain stable in the short - term, and there may be narrow adjustments in a few areas [18] - **Strategy**: The near - month contracts may fluctuate mainly, and pay attention to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end has a long - term positive expectation, but pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valuation [19] Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally continued to decline. The average price in Henan fell 0.23 yuan to 12.71 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan fell 0.2 yuan to 12.27 yuan/kg. The slaughtering enthusiasm of farmers remained high. In some areas, the slaughtering progress was lagging behind, so they accelerated the slaughtering. The demand side may have stocking sentiment due to the approaching weekend, but the increase may be lower than expected. The pig price may continue to decline, and the decline may narrow slightly [21] - **Strategy**: There may still be short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Pay attention to the lower support after the long - term decline [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both declined, and the inventory level gradually decreased and approached a relatively reasonable range. For rebar, the output showed an inverse seasonal increase, the apparent demand continued to weaken, and the inventory began to accumulate slightly, but the overall pressure remained limited [2]. - The overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly in the latest period. The supply pressure eased marginally as the overseas shipment entered the off - season. The inventory was at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, suppressing the absolute price. The iron ore price fluctuated in the short term, and the subsequent focus was on the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [5]. - The market sentiment for ferroalloys was affected by the Baogang explosion and other factors. In the future, the market sentiment and cost - push or supply - contraction factors would dominate the market. Attention should be paid to potential issues in manganese ore and the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by the Baogang incident and market sentiment. In the short term, the prices were expected to continue to show a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment [14][15]. - For industrial silicon, there was an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the price was expected to oscillate due to the approaching Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. - The supply of polysilicon was expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern was expected to improve. It was recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [21]. - The float glass market lacked substantial positive drivers, and the short - term market was expected to continue to show a narrow - range oscillation [24]. - The soda ash market supply - demand pattern was generally loose, and the short - term market was expected to continue to operate weakly [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3123 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 17283 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The main contract position was 1.7444 million lots, with a month - on - month increase of 29747 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3160 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3240 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The output of rebar showed an inverse seasonal increase, the apparent demand continued to weaken, and the inventory began to accumulate slightly, but the overall pressure remained limited [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3280 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.27%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 178826 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 300 tons. The main contract position was 1.5177 million lots, with a month - on - month increase of 9222 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3280 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both declined, and the inventory level gradually decreased and approached a relatively reasonable range [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.63% (- 5.00). The position changed by - 6440 lots, reaching 564,600 lots. The weighted position was 920,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.20 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.70% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly. The supply pressure eased marginally as the overseas shipment entered the off - season. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory continued to rise. The iron ore price fluctuated in the short term, and the subsequent focus was on the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On January 28th, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) rose 0.24% intraday, closing at 5832 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, converted to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a premium of 78 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose 0.50% intraday, closing at 5632 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 118 yuan/ton over the futures price [7][8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment for ferroalloys was affected by the Baogang explosion and other factors. In the future, the market sentiment and cost - push (manganese ore for manganese silicon) or supply - contraction (due to losses or "dual - carbon" policy for ferrosilicon) factors would dominate the market. Attention should be paid to potential issues in manganese ore and the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: On January 28th, coking coal main contract (JM2605) rose 1.61% intraday, closing at 1134.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1588.4 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 1398.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 264 yuan/ton over the futures price. Coke main contract (J2605) rose 0.96% intraday, closing at 1684.0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by the Baogang incident and market sentiment. In the short term, the prices were expected to continue to show a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2605) was 8760 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.13% (- 100). The weighted contract position changed by - 8748 lots, reaching 376349 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 440 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 90 yuan/ton [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There was an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the price was expected to oscillate due to the approaching Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2605) was 50805 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.11% (- 1095). The weighted contract position changed by - 1108 lots, reaching 74886 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, and N - type re - feed material was 52.5 yuan/kg, with a basis of 1695 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of polysilicon was expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern was expected to improve. It was recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [21]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1067 yuan/ton, up 0.09% (+ 1). The North China large - plate price was 1010 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the Central China price was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On January 23rd, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 53.2158 million cases, up 202,800 cases (+ 0.38%) [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The float glass market lacked substantial positive drivers, and the short - term market was expected to continue to show a narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 1035 - 1130 yuan/ton [24]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1198 yuan/ton, up 0.34% (+ 4). The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1158 yuan, up 4 yuan from the previous day. On January 23rd, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5212 million tons, down 53,800 tons (- 0.38%) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soda ash market supply - demand pattern was generally loose, and the short - term market was expected to continue to operate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1230 yuan/ton [26].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment in the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors is supported by factors such as geopolitical situations, policy environments, and supply - demand dynamics. Different metals have different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices are expected to rise slightly in the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, and the prices of other metals also have their own characteristics and influencing factors [5][8] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: The Fed's interest - rate decision and geopolitical situation led to a rise in gold and copper prices. LME copper 3M closed up 0.74% to $13,120/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 102,430 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1,575 tons to 173,925 tons, and SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 to 148,000 tons. The spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong was large, and the import loss of SHFE copper spot narrowed to about 400 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference widened [4] - **Strategy View**: Precious metals continue to rise, and strategic resource demand is strengthened. The copper ore supply is tight, and the refined copper demand is seasonally weak. Global visible inventory continues to increase. Short - term copper prices are expected to rise slightly. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 101,500 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $13,000 - $13,500/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Due to the escalation of the US - Iran issue and the strengthening of the equity market, aluminum prices rose significantly. LME aluminum closed up 1.59% to $3,263/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 25,330 yuan/ton. The SHFE - LME price difference narrowed. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 93,000 to 810,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 143,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased slightly, and aluminum rod inventory increased slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to rise, but the transaction was dull. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 500,000 tons [7] - **Strategy View**: The large increase in aluminum positions has increased price volatility. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, but high prices suppress downstream demand. LME aluminum inventory remains relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing strong support for aluminum prices. In the context of loose domestic and foreign policies, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 25,000 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,220 - $3,320/ton [8] Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index closed flat at 17,016 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 101,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, LME lead 3S fell $7 to $2,025.5/ton, with a total position of 171,300 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,775 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 100 yuan/ton. SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 211,200 tons [10] - **Strategy View**: Although the visible lead ore inventory has further increased, high by - product profits suppress the further decline of lead concentrate TC. Primary lead production has decreased slightly but remains at a high level, and secondary lead smelting start - up rate has increased marginally. The finished product inventory of smelting plants and social lead ingot inventory have both increased, showing a weak industrial situation. However, due to the impact of winter cooling on scrap battery transportation, the raw materials for secondary lead smelting have tightened, and the profit of secondary lead smelting calculated on a spot - order basis is under pressure. It is expected that the surplus of lead ingots will decrease marginally [11] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 2.62% to 25,615 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 240,200 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, LME zinc 3S rose $82 to $3,413/ton, with a total position of 234,300 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 25,240 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,300 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 110,600 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on January 26 was 109,900 tons, an increase of 130 tons from January 22 [12] - **Strategy View**: The visible zinc ore inventory has increased marginally, and zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Zinc smelting profits have improved slightly, and the destocking of domestic zinc ingot social inventory has slowed down. After the repair of the SHFE - LME ratio, the outflow of zinc has improved, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The US PMI data announced on the night of January 23 was slightly lower than expected, and the double - loose policy has not been reflected in economic data, so short - term bullish sentiment has retreated. However, the sharp rise in overseas natural gas prices has raised concerns about the costs of European smelters, leading to an increase in LME zinc prices. In addition, the current zinc - copper ratio and zinc - aluminum ratio are at absolute lows, and zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase [13] Tin - **Market Information**: On January 28, tin prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The SHFE tin main contract closed at 443,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.63% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the start - up rate of smelters in Yunnan remained high last week, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The upward momentum was insufficient after the two regions recovered from maintenance, and there were both constraints on the scrap side and downstream high - price wait - and - see attitudes, so short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, although high tin prices significantly suppressed downstream purchasing willingness, downstream inventories were generally low, and the acceptance of tin prices was gradually increasing. After the decline in tin prices last week, the rigid - demand restocking demand was released intensively. As of January 23, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,001 tons, an increase of 365 tons from the previous Friday [14] - **Strategy View**: In the short term, the tin price trend is determined by the capital game in the futures market. Against the background of the strong trend of precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $52,000 - $58,000/ton [15] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 28, nickel prices fluctuated. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 144,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.12% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel to the near - month contract was 200 yuan/ton, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 6,750 yuan/ton. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was $54.54/wet ton, and that of 1.2% grade was $23/wet ton. The price of nickel iron fluctuated upward, and the average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,053 yuan/nickel point [16] - **Strategy View**: Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory. It is expected that under the expectation of a reduction in the RKAB quota in Indonesia, SHFE nickel will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for SHFE nickel prices is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is $16,000 - $19,000/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 168,830 yuan in the evening session, a decrease of 0.49% from the previous working day. Among them, the price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 163,500 - 175,000 yuan, with an average price decrease of 850 yuan (- 0.50%) from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 160,500 - 172,000 yuan, with an average price decrease of 0.45% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 166,280 yuan, a decrease of 7.42% from the previous closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,600 yuan [19] - **Strategy View**: On Wednesday, most commodities rose, but lithium carbonate was weak, rising first and then falling back to erase the previous day's gains. After the previous rapid rise in lithium prices, the number of profit - taking orders increased. The fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged, and the off - season destocking provides strong support. Downstream raw material inventory is limited, and it is expected that the bargaining power is not high. Recently, the commodity market has fluctuated greatly, and the exchange adheres to the main tone of strict supervision. It is recommended to wait and see carefully or try with a light position. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 156,000 - 176,000 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: As of 3 pm on January 28, 2026, the alumina index rose 2.8% to 2,808 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 647,300 lots, a decrease of 14,900 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the spot price in Shandong remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 256 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 81 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Wednesday were 159,100 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons from the previous trading day. In the ore end, the CIF price in Guinea decreased by $0.5/ton to $61.5/ton, and the CIF price in Australia remained at $60/ton [22] - **Strategy View**: After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. It is expected that the ore price will fluctuate downward. Attention should be paid to the support at the import cost position of Guinea ore. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed to prevent blind investment and disorderly construction in alumina and copper smelting, and the market's expectation of the implementation of supply - contraction policies in the future has increased. However, the continuous rebound still faces three difficulties: over - capacity in the smelting end, downward cost support, and the pressure of expired warehouse receipt delivery. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52% (- 75) on the day, with a unilateral position of 295,000 lots, a decrease of 8,706 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in Foshan market was 14,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the price of Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil in Wuxi market remained unchanged at 14,500 yuan/ton. The Foshan basis was - 415 (+ 25), and the Wuxi basis was - 165 (+ 75). The price of Hongwang 201 in Foshan was 9,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the price of Hongwang annealed 430 remained unchanged at 7,750 yuan/ton. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in Shandong was 1,055 yuan/nickel, and the recycling price of 304 scrap steel industrial materials in Baoding was 9,450 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous day. The price of high - carbon ferrochrome in the northern main production area was 8,500 yuan/50 - base ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The futures inventory was 38,938 tons, a decrease of 7,180 tons from the previous day. According to the data on January 23, the social inventory decreased to 878,900 tons, a decrease of 0.51% month - on - month, among which the inventory of 300 - series was 599,500 tons, a decrease of 0.48% month - on - month [25] - **Strategy View**: Last week, the stainless - steel market was active in trading, and prices fluctuated greatly. Affected by the expansion of the nickel - stainless - steel price difference, some nickel - iron production capacity has shifted to the production of high - grade nickel matte with better profits, resulting in a tight supply of nickel - iron and limited high - quality and tradable resources in the market. In addition, the futures warehouse receipts are at a low level, and the stainless - steel market shows a structural supply shortage in the short term, and the near - month contracts continue to strengthen. In terms of inventory, although the downstream demand weakened before the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm of traders for stockpiling increased, and the social inventory continued to decline. On Friday, market news showed that the port logistics of the Indonesian Tsingshan Industrial Park may be suspected of monopoly. If the Indonesian government intervenes in the investigation later, the shipment of Tsingshan - related products may be affected, further increasing the uncertainty on the supply side of stainless steel. Overall, the expectation of tight supply on the raw material side has not been reversed, the stainless - steel spot market shows a tight pattern, and the price center is expected to continue to move up in the future, but the fluctuation may be large, and the risk of a callback should be vigilant. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,100 yuan/ton [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rose significantly. The main AD2603 contract closed up 3.17% to 23,785 yuan/ton (as of 3 pm), the weighted contract position increased to 22,100 lots, the trading volume was 34,100 lots, and the trading volume reached a new high since listing. The warehouse receipts increased by 0.01 to 67,700 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 contract and the AD2603 contract was 1,855 yuan/ton, which widened significantly month - on - month. The average price of mainstream domestic ADC12 increased month - on - month, and the price of imported ADC12 increased by 200 yuan/ton. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. In terms of inventory, the domestic three - place inventory decreased by 0.02 to 41,500 tons [28] - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong, and the supply - side disturbance continues, providing strong support for prices. However, the demand is relatively average. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support level of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio. After the northern hemisphere starts to end the sugar - cane crushing season in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, international sugar prices may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and as sugar prices fall to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] - For cotton, in the medium to long term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and the positive future macro - economic outlook, cotton prices still have room to rise. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [8] - For protein meal, affected by sudden news from Canada, rapeseed meal prices rebounded. The January USDA report data was slightly negative, but the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that of the 2024/2025 season. From the weekly sample data, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month. In the short term, the fundamentals are improving, and protein meal prices may be bottoming out [12] - For oils, affected by the sudden news from Canada and the year - on - year decline in Malaysian palm oil production in January, oil prices rose significantly yesterday. Recently, the inventories of the three major domestic oils have continued to decline month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback before trying to go long [17] - For eggs, the pre - festival stocking sentiment has boosted the spot price increase beyond expectations, and the near - month contracts are driven to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the demand - side expectations are about to be realized. The near - contracts have post - festival attributes and may mainly fluctuate. In the future, more attention should be paid to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end is affected by the peak of production capacity and has a long - term positive outlook, but after the profit is given too early, the realization path is still uncertain. Pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valuation [20] - For pigs, the demand support and the market's reluctance to sell due to the high fat - to - standard price difference support the short - term limited decline in the spot price. However, the expectation of inventory accumulation and the upcoming pre - festival supply release have led to the early weakness of the futures market. Considering the large overall supply pressure after the Spring Festival in the first half of the year and the expectation of inventory postponement, the futures discount is logical. There may still be opportunities to sell short after the rebound. Due to limited capacity reduction, the improvement space for the long - term fundamentals has been revised down. Pay attention to the lower support after the long - term decline [23] 3. Summary by Category Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5,187 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton or 0.37% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,250 - 5,320 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons. As of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of currently operating sugar mills increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3] Strategy - Wait and see for now [4] Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded sharply. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,940 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan/ton or 2.57% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,933 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5] - As of January 24, the planting rate of cotton in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9%. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. As of the week of January 23, the spinning mill's opening rate was 64.6%, unchanged from the previous week and an increase of 26.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7 million tons, an increase of 460,000 tons year - on - year. The January 2025/26 global cotton production forecast was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous season. The January forecast for US cotton production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December forecast, with the export forecast remaining unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. The production forecast for Brazil remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; the production forecast for India was reduced by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; the production forecast for China was increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 8 to January 15, the US current - year cotton export sales were 97,300 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.72 million tons, a decrease of 166,000 tons year - on - year; among them, the export to China in that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 88,600 tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons year - on - year [6][7] Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [8] Protein Meal Market Information - On Wednesday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated strongly. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,782 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,297 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 1.14% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was reported at 3,120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was reported at 2,490 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [10] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that after US President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff, he did not plan to sign any trade agreements with China. From January 8 to January 15, the US exported 2.45 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.03 million tons; among them, the US exported 1.3 million tons of soybeans to China in that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 9.42 million tons. From January 16 to January 23, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week. The January 2025/26 global soybean production forecast was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared with December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous season. Among them, the January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast for Brazil's production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast for Argentina's production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons compared with the previous season. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume was slightly reduced by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast [11] Strategy - Protein meal prices may be bottoming out [12] Oils Market Information - On Wednesday, the oils futures price fluctuated strongly. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,326 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton or 0.82% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,270 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 0.35% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,330 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8,850 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 9,270 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 10,120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [14] - Malaysian Prime Minister Carney said that after US President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff, he did not plan to sign any trade agreements with China. From January 1 to 20 in Malaysia, the crude palm oil production decreased by 14.43% compared with the same period of the previous month. From January 16 to January 23, the inventory of the three major domestic oils decreased slightly by 30,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and will maintain the current B40 plan. The January US soybean oil consumption forecast was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous season. In December, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November [14][15] Strategy - Wait for a pullback before trying to go long [17] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable with some increases. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.04 yuan to 3.96 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 3.7 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 3.62 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the overall market digestion slowed down, and the terminal caution increased. It is expected that the national egg price will mostly remain stable in the short term, with a small number of regions having narrow - range adjustments [19] Strategy - Near - month contracts may mainly fluctuate, and pay attention to the pressure after the rebound. For the far - end, pay attention to the selling pressure after over - valuation [20] Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally continued to decline. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.24 yuan to 12.94 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.2 yuan to 12.47 yuan/kg. In the northern regions, there was rain and snow, and with the weekend approaching, the demand increased. The farmers reduced the slaughter at low prices, and the pig price may stabilize, with a slight increase in some areas. In the southern regions, the supply may increase due to accelerated slaughter, the demand is average, supply exceeds demand, and the pig price may continue to decline [22] Strategy - There may still be opportunities to sell short after the rebound. Pay attention to the lower support after the long - term decline [23]

贵金属日报 2026-01-29 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 3.36 %，报 1196.80 元/克，沪银涨 1.46 %，报 28885.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 5411.00 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 116.62 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.26%，美元指数报 96.34 ； 昨日所公布的美联储议息会议货币政策表态偏谨慎，但沃勒的反对票再度冲击联储独立性，驱 动金银价格表现极为强势。 本次联储议息会议决定维持利率在 3.50%-3.75% 区间不变，未进行降息，货币政策表态谨慎， 符合市场预期。但投票结果中沃勒投下反对票支持降息 25bps 超市场预期鸽派，贝森特表明 将在一周左右公布新任联储主席提名，沃勒此举渴望得到特朗普的关注，会议后 Kalshi 显示 市场对沃勒被提名新任联储主席的概率预测由 8% 上升至 15%，这再度冲击美联储货币政策独 立性，叠加此前特朗普关于美元汇率的"悠悠球"言论和贝 ...

文字早评 2026/01/29 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、中国航天科技集团商业火箭有限公司召开 2026 年度工作会议，2026 年坚决打赢主力箭首飞及回收攻 坚战，全力突破可重复使用技术； 2、有消息称，监管机构计划对主要量化基金的程序化交易实施 T+3 制度。多家头部量化机构回应："量 化股票交易规则或变化"为不实消息； 3、从多家房企相关人士称目前其所在公司已不被监管部门要求每月上报"三条红线"指标； 4、美财长贝森特称美国一贯奉行强势美元政策 美元指数短线拉升。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.21%/0.31%/-0.03%/-1.01%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.26%/0.24%/-0.31%/-1.54%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.09%/-0.26%/-1.87%/-3.87%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.16%/0.30%/0.31%/-0.48%。 【策略观点】 近期政策更多是担心市场短期过热，慢牛才是政策的长期导向。中长期看政策支持资本市场的态度未变， 短期关注市场的节奏，策略上以逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 ...