有色情绪退潮， 产业现状偏弱 铅月报 2026/02/06 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估 04 需求分析 02 原生供给 05 供需库存 03 再生供给 06 价格展望 01 月度评估 月度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：1月铅价表现显著弱于板块走势，1月5日至2月3日期间，铅价上探后大幅下跌，沪铅加权累计下跌4.00%。SMM1#铅锭均价 16400元/吨，再生精铅均价16425元/吨，精废价差-25元/吨，废电动车电池均价9925元/吨。 ◆ 国内结构：上期所铅锭期货库存录得3.38万吨，内盘原生基差-140元/吨，连续合约-连一合约价差-55元/吨。据钢联数据，2月5日全 国主要市场铅锭社会库存为4.59万吨，较2月2日增加0.69万吨。海外结构：LME铅锭库存录得23.29万吨，LME铅锭注销仓单录得1.58 万吨。外盘cash-3S合约基差-51.45美元/吨，3-15价差-142.1美元/吨。跨市结构：剔汇后盘面沪伦比价录得1.222，铅锭进口盈亏为 26 ...

铜月报 2026/02/06 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 短期宏观情绪压制，支撑较强 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度要点小结 03 供需分析 02 期现市场 04 宏观分析 01 月度要点小结 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应：海外铜矿供应紧张格局不变，边际紧张预期加剧，粗铜供应偏宽松。1月中国精炼铜产量维持高位，预计2月产量环比下滑、同比增长。 ◆ 需求：1月中国精炼铜表观消费预估小幅增长，2月下游开工将季节性走弱。海外制造业景气度回暖，需求预期改善。 ◆ 进出口：1月沪铜现货进口亏损先扩后缩，美铜与伦铜价差震荡，价差引起美国铜库存在COMEX与LME流动加大。 ◆ 库存：1月上期所、COMEX和LME库存均增加，保税区库存持稳，总库存增加，但结构性问题仍存。预估2月中国库存继续累库。 ◆ 小结：进入2026年2月，下游迎来季节性淡季，国内铜库存将继续累积，但铜价回调的背景下，预计累库量不会超季节性。海外制造业景气 度改善带动需求预期回暖。宏观层面，贵金属、比特币走弱和美股AI板块下跌仍对市场情绪形 ...

宏观支撑减弱，现实压 力逐步体现 镍月报 2026/02/06 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 05 硫酸镍 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：1月镍矿价格在菲律宾雨季扰动叠加LME镍价走强下明显上行。菲律宾方面，苏里高降雨致开采及驳船装运暂停，供应收紧支撑国内矿 价，中国港存进一步降至736万吨。印尼方面，湿法矿供需平稳、价格持稳；火法矿受强降雨叠加MOMS/RKAB核验与监管高压、矿方惜售，1.6% 品位镍矿到厂价涨至61.4美元/湿吨，后续基准价与升水预计仍偏强运行。 ◆ 镍铁：1月国内高镍生铁价格维持强势，月底SMM10-12%高镍生铁均价上涨至1054元/镍点（出厂含税），主要受期现价差拉大及上游挺价推动。 印尼部分铁厂转产高冰镍叠加贸易商套利锁货，导致市场流通货源偏紧。下游虽处淡季，但期货上涨改善不锈钢 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In February, overseas iron ore shipments are in the seasonal off - season, with expected slight decline in shipment volume but relatively high absolute volume. Attention should be paid to the possible impact of weather on the shipping end due to frequent hurricanes in Australia in the first quarter. The arrival volume is expected to decline accordingly. - In January, the annual planned maintenance of steel mills' blast furnaces was gradually completed, with more blast furnaces resuming production and a slight increase in molten iron. In February, the molten iron output is expected to continue to increase slowly, with the daily average molten iron output possibly rising above 2.3 million tons. - Port inventories continue to accumulate, reaching a high level in the same period of history, and there are also structural contradictions. The total inventory puts pressure on the absolute price level. - Overall, the upward space of iron ore prices is restricted by high inventory and the expectation of loose supply. At the same time, the marginal pressure of supply and demand is relatively controllable. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the start - up of downstream demand after the Spring Festival [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: In January, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 30.7948 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.462 million tons. The weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 14.9714 million tons, a decrease of 1.4831 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 6.495 million tons, a decrease of 1.9485 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.7024 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5724 million tons. - **Demand**: In January, the estimated domestic daily average molten iron output was 2.2834 million tons, an increase of 0.0044 million tons from the previous month. - **Inventory**: At the end of January, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 170.2226 million tons, an increase of 10.932 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.2228 million tons, an increase of 0.0574 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.8173 million tons, a decrease of 0.0051 million tons from the previous month [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Difference**: At the end of January, the price difference between PB - Super Special Powder was 114 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of -3 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás Fines - PB Powder was 90 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of +8 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás Fines - Jinbuba Powder was 149 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of +12 yuan/ton. The price difference between (Carajás Fines + Super Special Powder)/2 - PB Powder was -12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of +5.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel**: At the end of January, the pellet feed ratio was 14.72%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.45%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The sinter feed ratio was 72.83%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The price of Tangshan scrap steel was 2,165 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month. The price of Zhangjiagang scrap steel was 2,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of January, the profitability rate of steel mills was 39.39%, an increase of 2.16 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3.3 Inventory - At the end of January, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 170.2226 million tons, an increase of 10.932 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 4.0931 million tons, an increase of 0.5775 million tons from the end of the previous month. The iron concentrate powder inventory at ports was 15.5916 million tons, an increase of 2.0312 million tons from the end of the previous month. The lump ore inventory at ports was 21.6211 million tons, an increase of 0.1745 million tons from the end of the previous month. - The inventory of Australian ore at ports was 77.9919 million tons, an increase of 8.5793 million tons from the end of the previous month. The inventory of Brazilian ore at ports was 55.8397 million tons, a decrease of 0.8559 million tons from the end of the previous month. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 99.6859 million tons, an increase of 11.084 million tons from the end of the previous month [35][38][41][44]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In January, the weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 14.9714 million tons, a decrease of 1.4831 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 6.495 million tons, a decrease of 1.9485 million tons from the previous month. - **Major Miners' Shipments**: In January, the weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 5.9336 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5347 million tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 5.5568 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1962 million tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 4.8542 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1711 million tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 3.8766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0469 million tons. - **Arrival and Non - Mainstream Imports**: In January, the weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.7024 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5724 million tons. In December, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 21.9278 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9236 million tons. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of January, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 59.98%, an increase of 4.45 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 468,700 tons, an increase of 34,800 tons from the end of the previous month [50][53][56][59][62]. 3.5 Demand Side - In January, the estimated domestic molten iron output was 70.7857 million tons, with a daily average of 2.2834 million tons, an increase of 0.0044 million tons from the previous month. At the end of January, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.47%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points from the end of the previous month. - In January, the weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.2228 million tons, an increase of 0.0574 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.8173 million tons, a decrease of 0.0051 million tons from the previous month [67][70]. 3.6 Basis As of January 30, the estimated basis of the main contract of iron ore BRBF was 27.87 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 3.40% [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Last month, PXN retraced due to lack of fundamental drivers and off - season pressure, while the sharp rise in crude oil compressed chemical valuations. Currently, PX load remains high, downstream PTA has many maintenance activities, and it is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is positive, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [11]. - PTA: Last month, PTA processing fees fluctuated at a high level. Subsequently, the supply side will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber will decline due to the off - season. PTA will enter the Spring Festival stockpiling stage. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and mid - term opportunities to go long on dips should be grasped [12]. - MEG: Last month, there was a game between weak fundamentals and geopolitics. After a sharp rebound, it returned to weak - fundamental trading. Currently, the overall load is still high, and the port stockpiling pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the mid - term. The valuation is currently at a relatively low level, and there is a risk of rebound [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - **Market Review**: Prices rose and then fell last month. As of February 5, the closing price of the 03 contract was 7,098 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 70 yuan; the PX CFR price was 892 dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6 dollars. The basis was - 47 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7 yuan; the 3 - 5 spread was - 102 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 60 yuan [11]. - **Supply**: At the end of the month, China's load was 89.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; Asia's load was 82.4%, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In January and February, the maintenance volume was relatively small, and the load was expected to remain stable [11]. - **Demand**: At the end of the month, the PTA load was 77.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. In February, the maintenance volume was expected to be large, and the average load would remain stable [11]. - **Inventory**: At the end of December, the social inventory was 4.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. According to the balance sheet, there will be a small amount of stockpiling from January to February [11]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Last month, PXN decreased by 42 dollars, and as of February 4, it was 304 dollars. The naphtha crack spread increased by 12 dollars, and as of February 4, it was 93 dollars [11]. PTA - **Market Review**: Prices rose and then fell last month. As of February 5, the closing price of the 05 contract was 5,144 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 58 yuan; the East China spot price was 5,100 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 30 yuan. The basis was - 77 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 28 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread was - 4 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 64 yuan [12]. - **Supply**: At the end of the month, the PTA load was 77.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. In February, the maintenance volume was expected to be large, and the average load would remain stable [12]. - **Demand**: At the end of the month, the polyester load was 79.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%. The terminal situation weakened, and it is expected to gradually recover around the Lantern Festival [12]. - **Inventory**: As of January 30, the total social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.116 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61,000 tons. It is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern [12]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee increased by 180 yuan year - on - year, and as of December 30, it was 345 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee increased by 127 yuan, and as of December 30, it was 345 yuan/ton [12]. MEG - **Market Review**: Prices rebounded and then fell last month. As of February 5, the closing price of the 05 contract was 3,745 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 101 yuan; the East China spot price was 3,649 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 68 yuan. The basis was - 111 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread was - 112 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21 yuan [13]. - **Supply**: At the end of the month, the EG load was 76.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. The import volume in February is expected to decrease slightly [13]. - **Demand**: At the end of the month, the polyester load was 79.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%. The terminal situation weakened, and it is expected to gradually recover around the Lantern Festival [13]. - **Inventory**: As of February 2, the port inventory was 897,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 172,000 tons. Ports are expected to continue stockpiling [13]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Naphtha - based profit decreased by 419 yuan to - 1,175 yuan/ton, domestic ethylene - based profit increased by 190 to - 704 yuan/ton, and coal - based profit decreased by 87 yuan to 101 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **PX**: The basis fluctuated weakly, and the spread was weak. The position was at a high level, and trading volume was strong [32][35]. - **PTA**: The position and trading volume increased [44]. - **MEG**: The basis was weak, and the spread fluctuated weakly. The position decreased [54][62]. 3.3 PX Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: Domestic new capacity includes Fuguidaohua (technical renovation) with 300,000 tons in early 2026, Huajin Aramco with 2 million tons in Q3 2026, and Yantai Yulongdao with 3 million tons from the end of 2026 to 2027. Overseas, IOC in India will add 800,000 tons in H2 2026 [75]. - **Supply**: The January start - up rate was at a historical high [79]. - **Import**: Imports increased significantly in December [83]. - **Inventory**: Inventory continued to accumulate in December [86]. - **Cost and Profit**: PXN retraced, short - process profits decreased, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated [89]. - **Aromatic Hydrocarbon Blending for Oil**: Gasoline performance was weak, the octane value showed certain trends, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread was weak, and the relative value of blending for oil decreased [96][99][103][106]. 3.4 PTA Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, there were new capacities such as Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4. In 2026, India Oil and GAIL will add new capacities [122]. - **Supply**: It has entered the stockpiling cycle [129]. - **Export**: There are data on exports to India, Turkey, and Vietnam [127]. - **Inventory**: It has entered the stockpiling cycle [129]. - **Profit**: There are data on spot and disk processing fees and acetic acid costs [132]. 3.5 MEG Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, there were new capacities such as Zhengdakai Phase I, Yulong Petrochemical 1, and Yichang (Kunpeng Phase I). In 2026, BASF, Tianying, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei will add new capacities [135]. - **Supply**: The overall load remained at a high level [138]. - **Import**: Imports increased significantly in December [140]. - **Inventory**: Due to high imports and the downstream off - season, ports continued to stockpile [150]. - **Cost**: Coal prices fluctuated, ethylene prices were continuously weak, and ethane prices rose [157]. - **Profit**: The valuation was at a relatively low level [160]. 3.6 Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester** - **New Capacity**: There are new bottle - chip production facilities, and new capacities are planned for polyester filament, staple fiber, and chips in 2026 [175][176]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate has entered the off - season [178]. - **Export**: December export data increased year - on - year and month - on - month [184]. - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure of filament was relatively small [187]. - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: There are data on the sales - to - production ratios of filament, staple fiber, and chips [194]. - **Profit**: The profit of filament improved significantly, and the profit of bottle - chips recovered [197][200]. - **Terminal** - **Start - up**: It has entered the off - season [203]. - **Order and Inventory**: Orders declined, inventory decreased, and raw material stockpiling was weak [209]. - **Retail and Export**: The growth rate of domestic demand for textile and clothing decreased, and exports were weak. The US clothing wholesale inventory was below the pre - pandemic high [213][216].

短期商品情绪承压且暂时缺乏驱动， 预计仍延续震荡整理 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 铁合金月报 2026/02/06 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 锰硅产业链示意图 月度评估及策略推荐 行情回顾 资料来源：文华财经，五矿期货研究中心 硅铁产业链示意图 原材料 需求结构 钢铁 70-80% 金属镁 15% 硅铁 建筑（房地产+基建） 60% 机械制造 20% 汽车制造&家电制造 8% 电力 7% 船舶制造 3% 其他 2% 镁合金 40% 镁铝合金 30% 海绵钛 15% 出口 10% 航天航空 交通运输（60%+） 3C产品 镁粉 15% 钢厂脱硫、烟火 钛锭及钛合金， 航空（46%）、 工业（43%）； 主要：韩国（23%）、日本（17%）、台湾（10%） 5%硅石 1.75t 25%兰炭 1.2t 5%氧化铁皮 55%电力 8000度 15%辅料及其他 01 1月份，锰硅盘面价格呈现宽幅震荡走势，月初冲高后震荡回 ...

近端持续弱势，远端留意支撑 生猪月报 2026/02/06 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：1月至今，国内猪价冲高后明显回落，受12月份企业超卖、肥标差偏高影响，月初及上旬养殖端出栏意愿低迷，加之中旬受降雪天气扰 动，上半月猪价整体维持强势，下旬随着终端需求低迷延续以及养殖端出栏窗口逐渐关闭，供应加速涌出后猪价明显走弱，月内肥标差维持偏 高，体重和散户栏位环比小落、同比偏高；具体看，河南均价月落0.74元至12.46元/公斤，月内最高13.5元/公斤，四川均价月落1.4元至11.5 元/公斤，月内最高13元/公斤，广东均价月落1.4元至11.76元/公斤；1月份养殖进度完成不佳，当前行业整体体重、散户栏位仍偏高，养殖端 有继续加速出猪可能，只是上旬后期是节前的集中备货时段，价格或短时反弹，但节后重回弱势。 ◆ 供应端：官方数据显示25年底能繁母猪存栏为 ...

01 月度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 郑棉延续高位震荡， 关注低吸的机会 棉花月报 2026/02/06 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 04 国际市场情况 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 行业信息：（1）据USDA数据显示，1月22日至1月29日当周，美国当前年度棉花出口销售5.74万吨，累计出口销售182.96万吨，同比减少 20.26万吨；其中当周对中国出口0.83万吨，累计出口10.57万吨，同比减少5.85万吨。（2）据Mysteel数据显示，截至1月23日当周，纺纱 厂开机率为64.2%，环比前一周下调0.4个百分点；全国棉花商业库存565万吨，环比前一周减少5万吨。（3）据USDA数据显示，1月预测 2025/26年度全球产量为2600万吨，环比12月预测下调8万吨，较上年度增加20万吨；库存消费比62.63%，环比12月预测减少1.42个百分点， 较上年度增加0.62个百分点。其中1月预测美国产量303万吨，环比1 ...

关注矿端潜在扰动， 静待基本面拐点 氧化铝月报 2026/02/06 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 目录 04 供给端 02 期现端 05 进出口 03 原料端 06 需求端 07 库存 月度评估 月度要点小结 01 月度评估 ◆ 期货价格：期货价格方面，截至2月6日，氧化铝指数较12月31日价格累计上涨3.33%至2824元/吨。月内整体商品做多氛围较为活跃，叠加几内亚铝土矿供应扰动和产能检修增加， 氧化铝期货价格震荡上行。但氧化铝持续反弹仍需关注强有力供给端收缩政策落地、几内亚政府推出铝土矿挺价政策、到期仓单得到充分消化。基差方面，1月现货维持深度贴水， 截至2月6日，山东现货价格较AO2603合约价格贴水201元/吨。月差方面，1月连一和连三月差维持震荡，截至2月6日，连一和连三月差录得-68元/吨。 ◆ 现货价格：氧化铝月内产量维持年内高位，累库趋势持续，现货价格承压下行。分地区来看，截至2026年2月6日，广西、贵州、河南、山东、山西、新疆 ...

中期看涨， 等待回调择机做多 油脂月报 2026/02/06 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 行业信息：(1)据南马来西亚棕榈油公会（SPPOMMA）的数据显示，2026年1月1-31日，南马来西亚棕榈油产量环比减少13.08%，其中鲜果串 单产环比减少13.78%，出油率（OER）增长0.16%。（2）据船运调查机构ITS和AmSpec发布的数据显示，1月份马来西亚棕榈油出口量分别环 比增长14.9%和17.9%。（3）据市场前瞻预估，2026年1月马来西亚棕榈油产量为162万吨，环比前一个月减少21万吨，出口142万吨，环比前 一个月增加10万吨，库存为289万吨，环比前一个月减少16万吨。（4）美国财政部2月3日发布了生物燃料税收抵免的最新指导意见，此举受 到市场的欢迎，认为这为生物燃料生产商提供了更清晰的指引，公开听证会 ...