03 主要经济数据 01 周度评估及策略推荐 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 04 流动性 需求偏弱，宽货币延续 国债周报 2025/08/16 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 程靖茹（联系人） chengjr@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133937 02 期现市场 05 利率及汇率 ◆ 经济及政策：7月经济数据整体略有放缓，外需好于内需， "反内卷"对价格预期有所提振，但需求和生产端的配合仍有待观察；出口方面， 在抢出口效应的背景下7月进出口数据总体超预期，但往后看，在抢出口有所透支以及下半年基数抬升的影响下，出口可能有一定压力。海 外方面，市场对美国9月份降息预期较强，利好金融市场流动性。 1、国家统计局数据显示，7月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长5.7%；7月社会消费品零售总额38780亿元，同比增长3.7%；1-7月份，全国 固定资产投资（不含农户）288229亿元，同比增长1.6%。1—7月份，全国房地产开发投资53580亿元，同比下降12. ...

CONTENTS 目录 估值回落 沥青周报 2025/08/16 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 01 周度评估及策略推荐 02 期现市场 06 相关指标 03 供应端 07 产业链结构图 04 库存 01 周度评估及策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：沥青主力合约近月走势（￥/吨） 05 需求端 3,000.0 3,100.0 3,200.0 3,300.0 3,400.0 3,500.0 3,600.0 3,700.0 3,800.0 3,900.0 4,000.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the 3600 high, with strong macro - trading sentiment. The pure benzene - naphtha (BZN spread) has risen, and the non - integrated EB plant profit has declined. The overall valuation is moderately low. With the decline in styrene production from its peak and the off - season demand for downstream three S products, there is a game between strong macro expectations and weak reality, resulting in the low - level consolidation of the futures price [11]. - This week's forecast: For pure benzene (BZ2603), the reference oscillation range is (6100 - 6400); for styrene (EB2507), the reference oscillation range is (7100 - 7400). It is recommended to take profit on the short position of the EB8 - 10 spread when the price rises [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Policy and Valuation**: The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through 3600, with strong macro - trading sentiment. The weekly increase in styrene shows cost > futures > spot, the basis has weakened, the BZN spread has risen, and the non - integrated EB plant profit has declined [11]. - **Cost**: Last week, the price of pure benzene in East China rose by 1.15%, and the pure benzene operating rate has declined from its peak [11]. - **Supply**: The EB capacity utilization rate is 77.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%, a year - on - year increase of 14.26%, and a decrease of 0.13% compared to the five - year average. According to the production plan, there are few production plans in the third quarter, and the greatest production pressure for the whole year is in the fourth quarter. There are no planned maintenance in August, and the supply side may face pressure under the high operating rate [11]. - **Import and Export**: In June, the domestic pure benzene import volume was 3.5456 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.59% and a year - on - year increase of 23.57%, mainly from the Middle East. The EB import volume in June was 220,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.78% and a year - on - year increase of 43.13%. This week, the pure benzene port inventory and the EB inventory in Jiangsu ports have decreased from their high levels [11]. - **Demand**: The weighted operating rate of downstream three S products is 39.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.12%. The PS operating rate is 55.00%, a week - on - week increase of 3.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.33%. The EPS operating rate is 43.67%, a week - on - week decrease of 19.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.86%. The ABS operating rate is 71.10%, a week - on - week increase of 7.89% and a year - on - year increase of 7.94%. During the seasonal off - season, the demand for ABS is relatively good [11]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant EB inventory is 210,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45% and a year - on - year increase of 31.59%. The EB inventory in Jiangsu ports is 148,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.42% and a year - on - year increase of 359.26%. The port inventory has slightly decreased [11]. - **Summary and Forecast**: The overall valuation is moderately low. With the decline in styrene production from its peak and the off - season demand for downstream three S products, there is a game between strong macro expectations and weak reality, resulting in the low - level consolidation of the futures price. This week's forecast: For pure benzene (BZ2603), the reference oscillation range is (6100 - 6400); for styrene (EB2507), the reference oscillation range is (7100 - 7400) [11]. - **Recommended Strategy**: It is recommended to take profit on the short position of the EB8 - 10 spread when the price rises [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the historical data of styrene spot price, futures contract price, basis, trading volume, open interest, spreads between different contracts, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [14][17][19] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Charts show the historical data of pure benzene port inventory, styrene port inventory, and styrene factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [33][34][36] - **Profit**: The profit of styrene production processes such as ethylbenzene dehydrogenation and POSM has been oscillating downward. The proportion of styrene production processes is 85% for ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, 12% for PO/SM co - production, and 3% for C8 extraction. The top ten styrene producers account for 44% of the total production capacity [39][41][45] 3.4 Cost Side - **Capacity and Production**: The design capacity, production, and growth rate of pure benzene in China are presented. The composition of pure benzene in China includes 71.0% petroleum benzene, 14.0% hydrogenated benzene, and 15.0% imported benzene. The profit distribution of the crude oil - naphtha - pure benzene - styrene - PS industrial chain is also shown [49] - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, pure benzene will maintain a de - stocking trend, especially in the third quarter when the supply gap will increase significantly. The production plans of pure benzene and its downstream products in 2025 are listed, with a total planned production capacity of 2.28 million tons for pure benzene and 3.11 million tons for its downstream products [54][55] - **Operating Rate**: The pure benzene operating rate is lower than the same period in previous years. The operating rates of related products such as hydrogenated pure benzene, phenol, aniline, caprolactam, and adipic acid are also presented [68][71][76] - **Inventory**: The caprolactam factory inventory is decreasing from its high level. The monthly import volume of pure benzene is also shown [89][94][96] 3.5 Supply Side - **Supply Gap**: In 2025, styrene will start to be in short supply from the third quarter, and the gap may gradually narrow. The production plans of styrene and its downstream products in 2025 are listed, with a total planned production capacity of 2.42 million tons for styrene and 4.198 million tons for its downstream products [101][104][107] - **Production and Operating Rate**: There are no planned maintenance in August, and the styrene production is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. The daily production, export volume, weekly operating rate, and import volume of styrene are presented [113][114][116] 3.6 Demand Side - **Capacity Forecast**: The capacity, production, and growth rate of styrene downstream products such as ABS, PS, and EPS are presented [124][125][126] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of EPS and PS are seasonally oscillating, while the ABS operating rate has rebounded from a low level. The production profits, factory inventories, and downstream demand proportions of these products are also shown [128][132][134] - **End - User Demand**: The monthly sales volume, production volume, inventory, and year - on - year growth rate of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners are presented, reflecting the downstream demand for styrene [148][157][158]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Newly laid eggs are continuously increasing, and the limited number of culled chickens results in a consistently large supply scale. Egg prices in the peak season are weaker than expected, and funds have created a premium in the futures market. The near - month contracts are particularly weak. In the short - term, the futures market may fluctuate due to the expected rebound of spot prices and the volatility risk from high positions at low levels. In the medium - term, the reduction of basic production capacity is limited, so the focus should be on short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic egg prices showed mixed trends, with red eggs slightly stronger and pink eggs still weak. It's the traditional upward cycle, and there are bullish expectations, but price increases are limited due to supply. This week, the culling of chickens increased slightly, chicken prices declined, and the average age of chickens remained high. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.4 yuan to 3 yuan per catty, while in Guantao it decreased by 0.07 yuan to 2.62 yuan per catty. In the sales areas, the price in Huilongguan increased by 0.23 yuan to 3.25 yuan per catty, and in Dongguan it decreased by 0.19 yuan to 2.62 yuan per catty. Supply is abundant, with a high proportion of medium - and small - sized eggs, and large - sized eggs are increasing. Cold - storage eggs are also being sold. Egg prices are expected to stabilize and then rise slightly this week [11][20]. - **Chicken Rearing and Culling**: Since the second half of last year, the number of new chicken rearing has been high due to low costs. However, as breeding losses increase and seasonal factors come into play, the number of new chicken rearing has significantly decreased. In July, the national number of new chicken rearing was 79.96 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%. In June, due to low - price losses, the culling of chickens increased, and the average age of chickens dropped to around 500 days. But since July, with increasing bullish sentiment in the market, the culling of chickens has stagnated, and the average age of chickens has returned to the relatively high level of 506 days [11][33]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of July, the inventory of laying hens in the sample was 1.356 billion, higher than expected, a month - on - month increase of 16 million compared to June and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% compared to last year's 1.277 billion. Assuming normal culling, the inventory is expected to increase further, reaching a peak of 1.367 billion in October this year, a 0.08% increase from the current level. Although it will decline later, the supply will still be excessive [11]. - **Demand Side**: After the plum - rain season, stockpiling consumption has improved. With the upcoming pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the off - season in the first half of the year and reach a consumption peak in the second half of the year [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the unilateral strategy, short - sell the 09, 10, and 11 contracts after a rebound, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 1 - 2 months. There is no recommendation for the arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Movement**: Domestic egg prices showed mixed trends last week. Red eggs were slightly stronger, and pink eggs were weak. It's the traditional upward cycle, and there are bullish expectations, but price increases are limited by supply. This week, the culling of chickens increased slightly, chicken prices declined, and the average age of chickens remained high. Egg prices are expected to stabilize and then rise slightly this week [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: After the spot price strengthened, it lost momentum. The current basis is still low, the near - month contracts are under pressure, and the spread between months is suitable for reverse arbitrage [23]. - **Culled Chicken Price**: Previously, more old chickens were culled, and there was over - culling in some areas, causing the price difference between white chickens and culled chickens to decline significantly. Recently, due to the expected price increase in the peak season, the culling of chickens has stagnated [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Egg - Laying Hen Rearing**: Since the second half of last year, the number of new chicken rearing has been high due to low costs. However, with increasing breeding losses and seasonal factors, the number has significantly decreased. In July, the national number of new chicken rearing was 79.96 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% [33]. - **Culled Chicken Culling**: In June, due to low - price losses, the culling of chickens increased, and the average age of chickens dropped to around 500 days. But since July, with increasing bullish sentiment in the market, the culling of chickens has stagnated, and the average age of chickens has returned to the relatively high level of 506 days [36]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of July, the inventory of laying hens in the sample was 1.356 billion, higher than expected, a month - on - month increase of 16 million compared to June and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% compared to last year's 1.277 billion. Assuming normal culling, the inventory is expected to increase further, reaching a peak of 1.367 billion in October this year, a 0.08% increase from the current level. Although it will decline later, the supply will still be excessive [38][41]. 3.4 Demand Side - After the plum - rain season, stockpiling consumption has improved. With the upcoming pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the off - season in the first half of the year and reach a consumption peak in the second half of the year [46]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost has increased slightly but is still low compared to the same period last year. The profit is at a seasonally low level [51]. 3.6 Inventory Side - With the start of spot consumption, the inventory pressure has eased, and there is a seasonal downward trend. However, the inventory is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is currently characterized by high supply and weak demand, with the price breaking through support levels and falling. The short - term weakness is difficult to reverse, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The report suggests a short - term wait - and - see approach [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The futures price has broken through support levels and fallen. The current situation is high supply and weak demand, with port inventories accelerating accumulation. Traditional downstream industries are generally in a loss - making state, and port MTO plants have shut down. Methanol has become a weak variety in the sector, with the basis weakening and the inter - monthly spread at a low level in the same period [11]. - **Supply**: The domestic operating rate has gradually bottomed out and is expected to increase marginally, reaching 82.4% this week, a 0.97% increase from the previous week. Overseas operating rates have returned to seasonal highs [11]. - **Demand**: Port olefin plants are operating at a low load, and the domestic olefin operating rate has declined slightly. Traditional demand operating rates are gradually rising, and improvement is expected during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The 1 - 5 spread is at a low level compared to the same period, and the current situation remains weak [11]. - **Valuation**: Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level. Port MTO plants have shut down, and port olefin profits are continuously rising. The price ratio between methanol and related varieties is at a medium - to - high level, indicating that methanol is not undervalued [11]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are 1.0218 million tons, a 96,300 - ton increase from the previous week. Enterprise inventories are 295,600 tons, a 1,900 - ton increase from the previous week, and are at a low level in recent years [11]. - **Market Logic**: Methanol's own fundamentals are weak. Even though coal prices are strong, it is still difficult to break out of the downward pattern, with short - term supply increasing and demand weak [11]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Basis and Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread is at a low level compared to the same period [20]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profits are at a high level compared to the same period [38]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are increasing, and enterprise inventories are at a low level in recent years [11]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Capacity**: In 2025, new methanol production capacity in the northwest region amounts to 7.45 million tons, including projects from Inner Mongolia Baofeng, Gansu Liuhua, Xinjiang Zhongtai New Materials, etc [50]. - **Operating Rate**: The domestic methanol operating rate has gradually bottomed out and is rising, and the overseas operating rate has returned to seasonal highs [11][52]. - **Import Volume**: Import volume is expected to increase gradually as overseas plants operate at high rates [11]. - **Arrival Volume**: Data on arrival volumes in different regions are presented in relevant charts [65][68]. - **International Price Difference**: Various international price differences and domestic freight rates are analyzed through charts [71][76]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Demand Forecast**: Consumption and end - of - period inventory data are presented in relevant charts [80]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: The olefin operating rate has declined slightly, and the profitability of related plants has shown some changes. There are also analyses of relevant spreads [83][93]. - **PP Production Profits**: Production profits of different PP production processes are presented in relevant charts [91]. - **Downstream Industries**: The operating rates and profits of downstream industries such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, MTBE, and dichloromethane, as well as downstream inventories, are analyzed through charts [104][107]. - **Related Product Price Ratios**: Price ratios between methanol and related products are presented in relevant charts [111]. 3.6. Options - Related - **Methanol Options**: Data on option trading volume, open interest, PCR, and volatility are presented in relevant charts [115][117]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - **Industry Chain and Research Framework**: Diagrams of the methanol industry chain and the research framework analysis mind - map are provided [120][122].

农产品早报 2025-08-15 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周四 USDA 调低种植面积利多延续，大豆进口成本上升。菜粕高位回落，豆粕跟随外盘成本小幅上行。 周四国内豆粕现货基差稳定，华东报 01-170 元/吨，豆粕快速上涨后成交较弱，提货较好，下游库存天 数小幅上升 0.32 天至 8.37 天。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 217.75 万吨，本周预计压榨 236.95 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨预计偏好。巴西方面，升贴水上涨后仍高位稳定。总体来看，USDA 大幅调低种 植面积，美豆产量环比下调 108 万吨，短期利多 CBOT 大豆，全球蛋白原料供应过剩背景下大豆进口成 本持续向上动能 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock market shows a bullish upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large-cap blue-chip stocks, small and medium-cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all performing well [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options is gradually rising and fluctuating above the average level [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct covered strategies, neutral double-selling strategies, and vertical spread combination strategies; for stock index options, it is suitable to construct neutral double-selling strategies and arbitrage strategies between synthetic futures long or short positions and futures short or long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,666.44, down 17.02 points or 0.46%, with a trading volume of 949.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.24 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11,451.43, down 99.93 points or 0.87%, with a trading volume of 1,329.7 billion yuan, an increase of 6.58 billion yuan [4]. - The SSE 50 Index closed at 2,829.47, up 16.49 points or 0.59%, with a trading volume of 131.1 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,173.31, down 3.26 points or 0.08%, with a trading volume of 485.1 billion yuan, an increase of 22.3 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 6,429.85, down 78.25 points or 1.20%, with a trading volume of 368 billion yuan, an increase of 14.5 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6,976.49, down 87.85 points or 1.24%, with a trading volume of 513.6 billion yuan, an increase of 42.1 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Option - Based ETF Market Overview - The SSE 50 ETF closed at 2.954, up 0.014 or 0.48%, with a trading volume of 9.2975 million lots, an increase of 9.2234 million lots, and a trading value of 2.757 billion yuan, an increase of 0.577 billion yuan [5]. - The SSE 300 ETF closed at 4.256, down 0.007 or 0.16%, with a trading volume of 8.8793 million lots, an increase of 8.8035 million lots, and a trading value of 3.797 billion yuan, an increase of 0.57 billion yuan [5]. - The SSE 500 ETF closed at 6.514, down 0.068 or 1.03%, with a trading volume of 2.239 million lots, an increase of 2.221 million lots, and a trading value of 1.465 billion yuan, an increase of 0.291 billion yuan [5]. - The Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.142, up 0.009 or 0.79%, with a trading volume of 67.6781 million lots, an increase of 67.2977 million lots, and a trading value of 7.79 billion yuan, an increase of 3.494 billion yuan [5]. - The E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.113, up 0.006 or 0.54%, with a trading volume of 15.0785 million lots, an increase of 14.9893 million lots, and a trading value of 1.695 billion yuan, an increase of 0.711 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 300 ETF closed at 4.392, down 0.007 or 0.16%, with a trading volume of 1.4872 million lots, an increase of 1.4745 million lots, and a trading value of 0.656 billion yuan, an increase of 0.103 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 500 ETF closed at 2.601, down 0.03 or 1.14%, with a trading volume of 0.6412 million lots, an increase of 0.6339 million lots, and a trading value of 0.168 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.023 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 100 ETF closed at 2.992, down 0.021 or 0.70%, with a trading volume of 0.4926 million lots, an increase of 0.4853 million lots, and a trading value of 0.148 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.071 billion yuan [5]. - The ChiNext ETF closed at 2.446, down 0.027 or 1.09%, with a trading volume of 14.8928 million lots, an increase of 14.7031 million lots, and a trading value of 3.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.954 billion yuan [5]. 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - For the SSE 50 ETF option, the trading volume was 2.2963 million lots, an increase of 0.7432 million lots; the open interest was 1.551 million lots, an increase of 0.0037 million lots; the volume PCR was 0.68, unchanged; the position PCR was 1.15, an increase of 0.11 [6]. - For the SSE 300 ETF option, the trading volume was 1.9952 million lots, an increase of 0.3912 million lots; the open interest was 1.3969 million lots, an increase of 0.0173 million lots; the volume PCR was 0.81, an increase of 0.02; the position PCR was 1.11, an increase of 0.03 [6]. - For the SSE 500 ETF option, the trading volume was 2.1653 million lots, a decrease of 0.0015 million lots; the open interest was 1.3893 million lots, an increase of 0.0015 million lots; the volume PCR was 0.86, an increase of 0.12; the position PCR was 1.21, a decrease of 0.20 [6]. - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the trading volume was 2.2192 million lots, an increase of 0.8156 million lots; the open interest was 1.9538 million lots, a decrease of 0.0453 million lots; the volume PCR was 0.48, a decrease of 0.07; the position PCR was 0.75, an increase of 0.05 [6]. - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the trading volume was 0.5254 million lots, an increase of 0.2541 million lots; the open interest was 0.5561 million lots, an increase of 0.0111 million lots; the volume PCR was 0.43, an increase of 0.02; the position PCR was 0.79, an increase of 0.07 [6]. - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the trading volume was 0.2743 million lots, an increase of 0.0127 million lots; the open interest was 0.2781 million lots, a decrease of 0.0007 million lots; the volume PCR was 0.54, a decrease of 0.04; the position PCR was 1.08, an increase of 0.02 [6]. - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the trading volume was 0.3433 million lots, a decrease of 0.034 million lots; the open interest was 0.3664 million lots, an increase of 0.0155 million lots; the volume PCR was 0.70, a decrease of 0.02; the position PCR was 0.94, a decrease of 0.01 [6]. - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the trading volume was 0.181 million lots, a decrease of 0.0173 million lots; the open interest was 0.1534 million lots, a decrease of 0.0054 million lots; the volume PCR was 1.16, a decrease of 0.05; the position PCR was 1.29, an increase of 0.01 [6]. - For the ChiNext ETF option, the trading volume was 2.7026 million lots, a decrease of 0.3928 million lots; the open interest was 1.7565 million lots, an increase of 0.0169 million lots; the volume PCR was 0.68, unchanged; the position PCR was 1.41, a decrease of 0.01 [6]. - For the SSE 50 index option, the trading volume was 0.1019 million lots, an increase of 0.0377 million lots; the open interest was 0.0767 million lots, a decrease of 0.0009 million lots; the volume PCR was 0.43, a decrease of 0.08; the position PCR was 0.60, an increase of 0.05 [6]. - For the CSI 300 index option, the trading volume was 0.2142 million lots, an increase of 0.0452 million lots; the open interest was 0.1994 million lots, a decrease of 0.0045 million lots; the volume PCR was 0.55, an increase of 0.01; the position PCR was 0.87, an increase of 0.07 [6]. - For the CSI 1000 index option, the trading volume was 0.4051 million lots, an increase of 0.0084 million lots; the open interest was 0.3093 million lots, an increase of 0.0075 million lots; the volume PCR was 0.79, an increase of 0.05; the position PCR was 1.15, a decrease of 0.07 [6]. 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - For the SSE 50 ETF option, the pressure point was 2.95, the support point was 2.90 [8]. - For the SSE 300 ETF option, the pressure point was 4.30, the support point was 4.20 [8]. - For the SSE 500 ETF option, the pressure point was 6.50, the support point was 6.25 [8]. - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the pressure point was 1.15, the support point was 1.10 [8]. - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the pressure point was 1.10, the support point was 1.05 [8]. - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the pressure point was 4.40, the support point was 4.30 [8]. - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the pressure point was 2.60, the support point was 2.55 [8]. - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the pressure point was 2.90, the support point was 2.90 [8]. - For the ChiNext ETF option, the pressure point was 2.50, the support point was 2.30 [8]. - For the SSE 50 index option, the pressure point was 3200, the support point was 2700 [8]. - For the CSI 300 index option, the pressure point was 4200, the support point was 4000 [8]. - For the CSI 1000 index option, the pressure point was 7000, the support point was 6000 [8]. 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - For the SSE 50 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility was 13.97%, the weighted implied volatility was 15.44%, an increase of 0.37%; the annual average was 14.97%; the call implied volatility was 15.99%, the put implied volatility was 14.42%; the 20 - day historical volatility was 13.33%, and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 2.11% [11]. - For the SSE 300 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility was 15.42%, the weighted implied volatility was 16.31%, an increase of 0.36%; the annual average was 15.61%; the call implied volatility was 16.71%, the put implied volatility was 15.60%; the 20 - day historical volatility was 14.02%, and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 2.29% [11]. - For the SSE 500 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility was 17.46%, the weighted implied volatility was 19.09%, an increase of 0.83%; the annual average was 19.30%; the call implied volatility was 19.53%, the put implied volatility was 18.50%; the 20 - day historical volatility was 16.22%, and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 2.86% [11]. - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility was 25.75%, the weighted implied volatility was 28.37%, an increase of 0.57%; the annual average was 28.59%; the call implied volatility was 29.16%, the put implied volatility was 26.53%; the 20 - day historical volatility was 23.43%, and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 4.94% [11]. - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility was 25.62%, the weighted implied volatility was 30.31%, an increase of 1.17%; the annual average was 29.39%; the call implied volatility was 31.47%, the put implied volatility was 27.38%; the 20 - day historical volatility was 24.39%, and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 5.91% [11]. - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility was 15.48%, the weighted implied volatility was 17.63%, a decrease of 0.02%; the annual average was 16.84%; the call implied volatility was 18.03%, the put implied volatility was 16.75%; the 20 - day historical volatility was 15.07%, and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 2.56% [11]. - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility was 17.84%, the weighted implied volatility was 19.44%, an increase of 1.21%; the annual average was 19.72%; the call implied volatility was 18.98%, the put implied volatility was 20.13%; the 20 - day historical volatility was 16.29%, and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 3.15% [11]. - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility was 18.70%, the weighted implied volatility was 23.17%, an increase of 0.74%; the annual average was 20.69%; the call implied volatility was 21.60%, the put implied volatility was 24.70%; the 20 - day historical volatility was 18.93%, and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 4.24% [11]. - For the ChiNext ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility was 26.28%, the weighted implied volatility was 28.17%, an increase of 0.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After nearly four months of consolidation, the stainless steel market is regaining upward momentum, and it is expected that this year's peak - season market may exceed seasonal norms and show stronger performance. The multi - wheel drive includes the continuous optimization of the supply - demand structure at the industrial level and the synchronous improvement of the domestic and foreign economic environment at the macro level. The systematic repair of market expectations will provide more lasting support for stainless steel prices than just supply - demand improvement [6][21]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Sentiment - Since the Trump administration's tariff increase policy in early April 2025, stainless steel futures prices have been at a low level, even dropping to the 12,000 - yuan mark. With the improvement of the domestic commodity market sentiment and industry prosperity, the prices have recovered the April 7th high [3][6]. - The basis between the spot and futures of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan is in a reasonable range, with strong linkage between the futures and spot markets and no obvious price divergence. Supported by the steady recovery of demand, the spot market quotation shows a mild upward trend, and the trading atmosphere has improved [7]. Cost and Profit - The prices of upstream ferronickel and ferrochrome have remained stable recently, providing relatively stable support for the production cost of stainless steel. Under the double benefits of steadily rising spot prices and stable raw material costs, the profit margin of steel mills has been gradually repaired, and some loss - making steel mills have turned losses into profits [7]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - Affected by seasonal weak demand, the market could not digest the previous supply, resulting in low trading volume, high inventory (both implicit and explicit), and a significant blow to steel mills' production enthusiasm, leading to many production cut announcements in early July [14]. - With increased production cuts by steel mills and the release of macro - favorable policies, the stainless steel futures market stabilized and rebounded first, driving up spot prices. The supply contraction expectation increased, and the spot market adopted a price - stabilizing and sales - promoting strategy, resulting in improved trading volume in July and a gradual decline in inventory levels [14]. Macroeconomic Factors - The M1 - M2 gap is continuously narrowing, and the M1 growth rate has significantly increased recently, indicating an increase in corporate current deposits, higher market trading activity, and a strengthening investment willingness in the real economy. Although key indicators in the downstream real estate industry are still in negative growth, the decline is narrowing, showing signs of bottoming out. Speculative demand has increased significantly due to improved market expectations, which is expected to support stainless steel prices [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the stock market may experience intensified volatility after continuous gains, but the general direction is to go long on dips. The bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term, with interest rates generally trending downward in the long - term. [3][6] - Metal prices show different trends. Copper prices may be strongly volatile in the short - term, aluminum prices may fluctuate, zinc prices have a large downward risk, lead prices have a short - term decline risk, nickel prices have a callback pressure, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a range. [10][11][13] - In the black building materials sector, steel prices may decline if demand cannot be effectively repaired, and the prices of iron ore, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon all face certain uncertainties and are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment. [25][27][28] - In the energy and chemical sector, rubber prices should be observed neutrally, oil prices have a good left - hand layout opportunity, methanol prices are recommended to be observed, urea prices can be considered for long positions at low levels, and the prices of other chemical products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. [42][43][44] - In the agricultural products sector, the prices of live pigs, eggs, soybean meal, vegetable meal, oils, sugar, and cotton all have different trends and trading strategies, mainly affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies. [56][57][58] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - News: The central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on August 15; 152 energy - storage enterprises advocate against involution; the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission issue a joint statement on the market fluctuations of stablecoins; the US PPI in July increased significantly compared with the forecast and the previous value. [2] - Basis ratio of stock index futures: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different terms are given. The trading logic is that the policy supports the capital market, and the market may be volatile in the short - term, but the general direction is to go long on dips. [3] Treasury Bond - Market: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. [4] - News: The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about the Fed's September meeting and believes there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut; the UK's GDP in the second quarter increased better than expected. [4] - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net withdrawal of 3.2 billion yuan. [5][6] - Strategy: The economic data in the first half of the year was resilient, but the PMI data in July was lower than expected. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and the interest rate is expected to trend downward in the long - term, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term. [6] Precious Metals - Market: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond was 4.29%, and the US dollar index was 98.21. [7] - Market outlook: The US inflation data exceeded expectations, and the Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts were cautious, putting short - term pressure on precious metal prices. However, considering factors such as US debt interest payments and government intervention, the Fed is likely to implement further easing, and it is recommended to wait for price corrections to go long. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are given. [7][8] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: Affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the slowdown of the domestic equity market, the copper price first declined and then rebounded. The inventory and basis in the domestic and international markets changed. The copper price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, with support from tight raw material supply and pressure from increased supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are given. [10] Aluminum - Market: Affected by factors such as the uncertainty of the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the slowdown of domestic inventory accumulation, the aluminum price first declined and then rebounded. The inventory and basis in the domestic and international markets changed. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with support from low domestic inventory and strong external demand, and pressure from weak downstream consumption and unstable trade situations. The reference operating ranges for domestic and LME aluminum are given. [11] Zinc - Market: The zinc price declined on Thursday. The zinc ore is in a loose supply situation, the domestic zinc ingot is in a surplus situation, and the LME market's structural disturbance is gradually receding. The zinc price still has a large downward risk. [12][13] Lead - Market: The lead price declined on Thursday. The lead ore inventory at ports increased in August, the production rates of primary and secondary lead increased, and the social inventory of lead ingots increased again. The downstream consumption is under pressure, and the short - term lead price has a certain decline risk. [14] Nickel - Market: The nickel price declined and adjusted on Thursday. Affected by factors such as the US PPI data and the market's interest rate cut expectations, the non - ferrous metal sector was under pressure. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron market sentiment improved, but the surplus pressure still existed. The refined nickel spot trading was still sluggish. The short - term nickel price may have a callback pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are given. [15] Tin - Market: The tin price declined and adjusted on August 15. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end is still under raw material supply pressure in the short - term. The domestic demand is weak, and the overseas demand is strong. The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the reference operating ranges for domestic and LME tin are given. [16][17] Lithium Carbonate - Market: The spot index of lithium carbonate increased, and the futures price also increased slightly. The domestic production of lithium carbonate increased this week, and the inventory decreased slightly. The supply improvement is the focus of the market, and it is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of lithium carbonate can choose the right entry point. The reference operating range for the futures contract is given. [18] Alumina - Market: The alumina index declined on August 14. The domestic and overseas ore supply is disturbed, but the alumina production capacity is in an over - supply situation. It is recommended to short at high levels when the short - term market sentiment cools down. The reference operating range for the domestic futures contract is given, and factors such as warehouse receipt registration and supply - side policies need to be concerned. [19] Stainless Steel - Market: The stainless steel futures price declined on Thursday. The spot prices in some markets also declined, and the raw material prices were mostly stable. The social inventory decreased, and the market trading sentiment was not high. The stainless steel market is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. [20][21] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: The futures contract of cast aluminum alloy declined on Thursday. The spot price was stable, and the downstream demand was mainly rigid. The inventory increased slightly. The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and the price increase space is limited. [22] Black Building Materials Steel - Market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined on Thursday. The export volume decreased slightly this week, and the demand for rebar decreased significantly, while the demand for hot - rolled coil increased. The inventory of both is in a marginal increase state, and the steel price may decline if the demand cannot be effectively repaired. It is recommended to pay attention to the recovery of terminal demand and the support of cost. [24][25] Iron Ore - Market: The iron ore futures price declined on Thursday. The overseas iron ore shipment and arrival volume decreased, the iron water production increased slightly, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased significantly. The iron ore price may be adjusted slightly in the short - term, and the contradiction between high iron water production and weak terminal demand needs to be concerned. [26][27] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot price of glass was stable, the inventory increased, and the market sentiment cooled down. The glass price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the long - term trend depends on factors such as anti - involution policies and real estate demand. [28] - Soda Ash: The spot price of soda ash increased slightly, the inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long - term, but the increase space is limited. [29] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon declined on August 14. The market is affected by factors such as anti - involution and supply - side policies, and it is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can choose the right opportunity. The manganese silicon industry is still in an over - supply situation, and the demand for ferrosilicon and the black sector may weaken in the future. [30][31][33] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The futures price of industrial silicon increased on Thursday. The supply is expected to increase in August, and the demand can provide some support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the implementation of anti - involution policies needs to be concerned. [34][35] - Polysilicon: The futures price of polysilicon declined on Thursday. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory may accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the impact of warehouse receipts on the price needs to be concerned. [36][37] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market: NR and RU fluctuated weakly. The long and short sides have different views. The operating rate of tire enterprises changed, and the inventory of natural rubber decreased. The rubber price has risen a lot in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct band - trading operations. [39][40][42] Crude Oil - Market: WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased, while INE crude oil price declined. The gasoline and diesel inventories in Singapore increased, and the fuel oil inventory decreased. The oil price is considered to be undervalued, and it is a good opportunity for left - hand layout. [43] Methanol - Market: The methanol futures price declined on August 14. The domestic production increased, the port inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak. The price is under pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see. [44] Urea - Market: The urea futures price declined on August 14. The domestic production increased, the demand is mainly concentrated in compound fertilizer and export, and the inventory is still at a medium - high level. The urea price is undervalued, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low levels. [45] Styrene - Market: The spot and futures prices of styrene declined, and the basis strengthened. The cost end has support, the BZN spread has room to repair, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The styrene price is expected to fluctuate upward with the cost end. [46][47] PVC - Market: The PVC futures price declined on Thursday. The cost end decreased, the production increased, the downstream demand was weak, and the inventory increased. The fundamentals are poor, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48] Ethylene Glycol - Market: The ethylene glycol futures price declined on Thursday. The supply decreased slightly, the downstream demand increased slightly, and the port inventory increased. The valuation is relatively high, and the price may decline in the short - term. [49] PTA - Market: The PTA futures price declined on Thursday. The supply may increase in August, the demand is about to end the off - season, and the inventory may accumulate. The PXN spread has upward momentum, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long with PX when the peak season demand improves. [50][51] p - Xylene - Market: The p - xylene futures price declined on Thursday. The production increased, the downstream PTA short - term overhaul increased, and the inventory may decrease. The valuation has support at the bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long with crude oil in the peak season. [52] Polyethylene - Market: The polyethylene futures price declined. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance, the cost end has support, the inventory is at a high level, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be determined by the game between the cost and supply in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold short positions. [53] Polypropylene - Market: The polypropylene futures price declined. The production may increase due to the rebound of refining profit, the demand is in the off - season, and the cost end may dominate the market. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly with crude oil in July. [54] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: The domestic pig price fluctuated on Thursday. The market is stable, and the price is expected to be stable today. The current inventory release can relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters, and it is recommended to go long on dips for medium - and long - term contracts, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread opportunity for far - month contracts. [56] Eggs - Market: The egg price was mostly stable on Thursday. The supply is large, and the price in the peak season is weaker than expected. The short - term egg price may fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting after the price rebounds. [57] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Market: The USDA's reduction of the soybean planting area has a positive impact, the import cost of soybeans has increased, the price of rapeseed meal has declined, and the price of soybean meal has increased slightly. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal surplus situation, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range and pay attention to factors such as supply pressure and Sino - US tariffs. [58][59] Oils - Market: The prices of the three major domestic oils declined on Thursday. The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August, Indonesia has distributed a large amount of biodiesel, and the import of Indian vegetable oil has changed. The oils are supported by policies and low inventory, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view the price fluctuation. [60][61][62] Sugar - Market: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated on Thursday. The international sugar production is expected to increase, the domestic import supply will increase in the future, and the price is expected to decline. [63] Cotton - Market: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated on Thursday. The USDA report is positive, and the Sino - US tariff suspension is beneficial to domestic cotton. However, the downstream consumption is average, and the short - term cotton price may fluctuate at a high level. [64][65][66]

能源化工日报 2025-08-15 2025/08/15 原油早评 能源化工组 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 1.19 美元，涨幅 1.90%，报 63.93 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 1.15 美元，涨幅 1.75%，报 66.89 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 7.60 元，跌幅 1.55%， 报 481.9 元。 数据方面：新加坡 ESG 油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存累库 1.23 百万桶至 14.24 百万桶，环比 累库 9.49%；柴油库存累库 0.65 百万桶至 9.33 百万桶，环比累库 7.53%；燃料油库存去库 1.67 百万桶至 24.65 百万桶，环比去库 6.36%；总成品油累库 0.21 百万桶至 48.21 百万桶，环比累 库 0.44%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，且宏观偏空，但当前油价已经出现相对低估，且自身静 态基本面与动态预测仍表现良好。当前油价已经迎来左侧布局良机，基本面将支撑当前价格， 而如若地缘溢价重新打开 ...