Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Overseas liquidity: The nomination of Wash has triggered hawkish expectations, and the divergence in expectations for US monetary policy has intensified, suppressing the risk appetite of the global capital market and causing increased volatility in US stocks and precious metals [11]. - Domestic market: Liquidity is tightening seasonally approaching the Spring Festival, so short - term observation is recommended. In the long - term, the policy support attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the main idea is to buy on dips [11]. - Trading strategy: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term due to the medium - to - low valuation level and long - term discount of IM; hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new round of interest rate cut cycle has started and high - dividend assets are expected to benefit [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important news**: The US plans to launch a $12 billion mineral reserve program; the 2026 No. 1 Central Document promotes the combination of AI and agriculture; Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT - 5.3 Codex are released; the traditional Chinese medicine industry policy is implemented; the central bank conducts an 800 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on February 4, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan [11]. - **Economic and corporate earnings**: In December 2025, industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9%, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.13% month - on - month; the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3; M1 growth was 3.8%, M2 growth was 8.5%; social financing increment was 2.2075 trillion yuan; exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year; in the US, non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was 4.4% [11]. - **Interest rate and credit environment**: This week, the 10Y Treasury bond rate and credit bond rate both declined slightly, the credit spread widened slightly, and liquidity tightened approaching the year - end [11]. - **Trading strategy**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term; hold IF long positions for 6 months [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Stock index performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 1.27% to 4065.58, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.11% to 13906.73, etc. [16]. - **Futures contract performance**: All major futures contracts, such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, declined to varying degrees [17]. 3. Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic data**: In Q4 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.5%; in January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3; in December 2025, the consumption growth rate was 0.9%, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year; the investment growth rate was - 3.8% [35][38][41]. - **Corporate earnings**: In the Q3 2025 report, the year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 1.24%, and the year - on - year growth rate of net profit was 3.89% [44]. 4. Interest Rate and Credit Environment - **Interest rate**: The 10Y Treasury bond rate and 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate trends are presented [48]. - **Credit environment**: In December 2025, M1 growth was 3.8%, M2 growth was 8.2%, and the social financing increment was 2.2075 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 646.2 billion yuan [60]. 5. Capital Flow - **Inflow**: This month, about 110.4 billion shares of new equity - oriented funds were established, and the new margin trading balance in the two markets was about 139.9 billion yuan, with the latest balance reaching 2.664067 trillion yuan, a new high [67][68]. - **Outflow**: This month, major shareholder share sales remained at a relatively high level, and the number of IPO approvals was 10 [72]. 6. Valuation - **P/E ratio (TTM)**: The P/E ratio of the Shanghai 50 is 11.64, the CSI 300 is 14.08, the CSI 500 is 36.92, and the CSI 1000 is 49.18 [77]. - **P/B ratio (LF)**: The P/B ratio of the Shanghai 50 is 1.28, the CSI 300 is 1.48, the CSI 500 is 2.54, and the CSI 1000 is 2.63 [77].

01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 商品风偏下行， 关注现货市场博弈 碳酸锂月报 2026/02/06 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 曾宇轲（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 03 供给端 06 成本端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 ◆ 期现市场：2月6日，五矿钢联碳酸锂现货指数（MMLC）早盘报138064元，周跌13.22%，其中MMLC电池级碳酸锂均价为138400元。同日广期所 LC2605收盘价132920元，本周跌10.31%。 ◆ 供给：锂盐厂淡季安排检修，2月5日，SMM国内碳酸锂周度产量报20744吨，环比减3.8%。2026年1月国内碳酸锂产量为97900吨，环比减1.3%， 同比增56.7%。2月预计国内碳酸锂产量环比减少16.3%。2026年1月份智利出口到中国的碳酸锂为16950吨，环比增44.82%，同比减少11.35%； 出口至中国的硫酸锂为2.78万吨。 ◆ 需求：乘联会预计1月国内新能源汽车零售量为90万辆左右，同比增长1%。一季度为电池 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the rubber market, analyzing factors such as cost, supply, demand, and price trends [1] - It also provides an assessment of rubber products like RU and NR, and offers trading strategy recommendations [15] Group 2: Core Views - Rubber prices are expected to experience significant fluctuations in the short - term due to macro - economic factors, and then gradually return to the fundamentals of demand and supply [10][11] - The market logic involves bullish sentiment driven by China's winter storage expectations and policy - related positives, while bearish sentiment stems from weak demand and potential negative impacts of tariff policies [13] - The demand for rubber is currently flat, with tire factories facing inventory pressure, and supply expectations vary, with some predicting a small increase in production [13] Group 3: Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Reasons for rubber price fluctuations: factors include geopolitical tensions, changes in Fed personnel, and macro - capital sentiment. The price may be limited in its decline due to capital allocation to commodities and may have an upward potential due to state reserve purchase expectations [10][11] - Key points for rubber RU: after fluctuations, it will return to the fundamentals of weak demand and increasing inventory [12] - Trading strategy: consider a neutral approach in the short - term, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on NR and short on RU2609 for potential band trading [13][15] Group 4: Cost End - The cost of rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be 30 - 35 Thai baht for cup rubber. In Hainan, China, the cost of whole latex is around 13,500 yuan, and in Yunnan, it is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [48] Group 5: Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. The ratio of rubber to other commodities such as crude oil and copper shows certain trends [22][30] - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [27] Group 6: Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to various commodities such as copper, Brent crude oil, and others generally show normal trends without significant special values [37][40] Group 7: Demand End - The operating rate of tire factories' all - steel tires is 60.7% (- 1.74%), and there is inventory pressure on all - steel tires [13] - The demand from the mid - stream, such as truck and commercial vehicle sales, is gradually improving, and the export of truck tires is booming but expected to decline slightly later [56][59] Group 8: Supply End - The rubber production in December 2025 showed different trends in various regions. For example, Thailand's production decreased year - on - year, while Vietnam's increased [98] - The export of rubber also had different year - on - year and month - on - month changes in different regions in December 2025 [99] - The data on rubber imports are less available after 2021, reducing the analyzability of imports [63] Group 9: Industry - related Data and Forecasts - The capacity of butadiene and ethylene is expected to increase in the coming years. The butadiene capacity will follow the increase of refining projects, and the supply pressure of butadiene will decrease in 2026 compared to 2025 [117][120][123] - The price of butadiene rubber is mainly affected by the price of butadiene, and the balance of supply and demand depends on the progress of downstream supporting projects [123]

铝月报 2026/02/06 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 情绪面加大市场波动，支撑较强 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止2026年1月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4499.6万吨；1月电解铝产量同比增长2.7%、环比增加0.5%。预计2月 运行产能保持相对稳定，部分新建电解铝项目逐渐爬产。2026年1月国内铝水比例环比下降4.4%至72.1%，2月铝水比例预计继续下降。1月海 外电解铝产量同比增长接近2%。 ◆ 库存&现货：据MYSTEEL数据，截至2月5日，铝锭库存录得85.3万吨，较1月初增加约15万吨。 保税区库存录得4.4万吨，较1月初减少约1.0万 吨。铝棒库存合计27.7万吨，较1月初增加10.2万吨。 LME铝库存录得49.3万吨，较1月初减少1.6万吨。国内华东铝锭现货贴水缩窄，LME市 场Cash/3M升贴水先扬后抑。 ◆ 进出口：1月沪铝现货进口亏损震荡缩窄。2025年12月中国原铝 ...

有色情绪退潮， 产业现状偏弱 铅月报 2026/02/06 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估 04 需求分析 02 原生供给 05 供需库存 03 再生供给 06 价格展望 01 月度评估 月度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：1月铅价表现显著弱于板块走势，1月5日至2月3日期间，铅价上探后大幅下跌，沪铅加权累计下跌4.00%。SMM1#铅锭均价 16400元/吨，再生精铅均价16425元/吨，精废价差-25元/吨，废电动车电池均价9925元/吨。 ◆ 国内结构：上期所铅锭期货库存录得3.38万吨，内盘原生基差-140元/吨，连续合约-连一合约价差-55元/吨。据钢联数据，2月5日全 国主要市场铅锭社会库存为4.59万吨，较2月2日增加0.69万吨。海外结构：LME铅锭库存录得23.29万吨，LME铅锭注销仓单录得1.58 万吨。外盘cash-3S合约基差-51.45美元/吨，3-15价差-142.1美元/吨。跨市结构：剔汇后盘面沪伦比价录得1.222，铅锭进口盈亏为 26 ...

铜月报 2026/02/06 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 短期宏观情绪压制，支撑较强 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度要点小结 03 供需分析 02 期现市场 04 宏观分析 01 月度要点小结 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应：海外铜矿供应紧张格局不变，边际紧张预期加剧，粗铜供应偏宽松。1月中国精炼铜产量维持高位，预计2月产量环比下滑、同比增长。 ◆ 需求：1月中国精炼铜表观消费预估小幅增长，2月下游开工将季节性走弱。海外制造业景气度回暖，需求预期改善。 ◆ 进出口：1月沪铜现货进口亏损先扩后缩，美铜与伦铜价差震荡，价差引起美国铜库存在COMEX与LME流动加大。 ◆ 库存：1月上期所、COMEX和LME库存均增加，保税区库存持稳，总库存增加，但结构性问题仍存。预估2月中国库存继续累库。 ◆ 小结：进入2026年2月，下游迎来季节性淡季，国内铜库存将继续累积，但铜价回调的背景下，预计累库量不会超季节性。海外制造业景气 度改善带动需求预期回暖。宏观层面，贵金属、比特币走弱和美股AI板块下跌仍对市场情绪形 ...

宏观支撑减弱，现实压 力逐步体现 镍月报 2026/02/06 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 05 硫酸镍 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：1月镍矿价格在菲律宾雨季扰动叠加LME镍价走强下明显上行。菲律宾方面，苏里高降雨致开采及驳船装运暂停，供应收紧支撑国内矿 价，中国港存进一步降至736万吨。印尼方面，湿法矿供需平稳、价格持稳；火法矿受强降雨叠加MOMS/RKAB核验与监管高压、矿方惜售，1.6% 品位镍矿到厂价涨至61.4美元/湿吨，后续基准价与升水预计仍偏强运行。 ◆ 镍铁：1月国内高镍生铁价格维持强势，月底SMM10-12%高镍生铁均价上涨至1054元/镍点（出厂含税），主要受期现价差拉大及上游挺价推动。 印尼部分铁厂转产高冰镍叠加贸易商套利锁货，导致市场流通货源偏紧。下游虽处淡季，但期货上涨改善不锈钢 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In February, overseas iron ore shipments are in the seasonal off - season, with expected slight decline in shipment volume but relatively high absolute volume. Attention should be paid to the possible impact of weather on the shipping end due to frequent hurricanes in Australia in the first quarter. The arrival volume is expected to decline accordingly. - In January, the annual planned maintenance of steel mills' blast furnaces was gradually completed, with more blast furnaces resuming production and a slight increase in molten iron. In February, the molten iron output is expected to continue to increase slowly, with the daily average molten iron output possibly rising above 2.3 million tons. - Port inventories continue to accumulate, reaching a high level in the same period of history, and there are also structural contradictions. The total inventory puts pressure on the absolute price level. - Overall, the upward space of iron ore prices is restricted by high inventory and the expectation of loose supply. At the same time, the marginal pressure of supply and demand is relatively controllable. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the start - up of downstream demand after the Spring Festival [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: In January, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 30.7948 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.462 million tons. The weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 14.9714 million tons, a decrease of 1.4831 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 6.495 million tons, a decrease of 1.9485 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.7024 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5724 million tons. - **Demand**: In January, the estimated domestic daily average molten iron output was 2.2834 million tons, an increase of 0.0044 million tons from the previous month. - **Inventory**: At the end of January, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 170.2226 million tons, an increase of 10.932 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.2228 million tons, an increase of 0.0574 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.8173 million tons, a decrease of 0.0051 million tons from the previous month [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Difference**: At the end of January, the price difference between PB - Super Special Powder was 114 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of -3 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás Fines - PB Powder was 90 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of +8 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás Fines - Jinbuba Powder was 149 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of +12 yuan/ton. The price difference between (Carajás Fines + Super Special Powder)/2 - PB Powder was -12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of +5.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel**: At the end of January, the pellet feed ratio was 14.72%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.45%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The sinter feed ratio was 72.83%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The price of Tangshan scrap steel was 2,165 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month. The price of Zhangjiagang scrap steel was 2,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of January, the profitability rate of steel mills was 39.39%, an increase of 2.16 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3.3 Inventory - At the end of January, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 170.2226 million tons, an increase of 10.932 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 4.0931 million tons, an increase of 0.5775 million tons from the end of the previous month. The iron concentrate powder inventory at ports was 15.5916 million tons, an increase of 2.0312 million tons from the end of the previous month. The lump ore inventory at ports was 21.6211 million tons, an increase of 0.1745 million tons from the end of the previous month. - The inventory of Australian ore at ports was 77.9919 million tons, an increase of 8.5793 million tons from the end of the previous month. The inventory of Brazilian ore at ports was 55.8397 million tons, a decrease of 0.8559 million tons from the end of the previous month. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 99.6859 million tons, an increase of 11.084 million tons from the end of the previous month [35][38][41][44]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In January, the weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 14.9714 million tons, a decrease of 1.4831 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 6.495 million tons, a decrease of 1.9485 million tons from the previous month. - **Major Miners' Shipments**: In January, the weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 5.9336 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5347 million tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 5.5568 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1962 million tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 4.8542 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1711 million tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 3.8766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0469 million tons. - **Arrival and Non - Mainstream Imports**: In January, the weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.7024 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5724 million tons. In December, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 21.9278 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9236 million tons. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of January, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 59.98%, an increase of 4.45 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 468,700 tons, an increase of 34,800 tons from the end of the previous month [50][53][56][59][62]. 3.5 Demand Side - In January, the estimated domestic molten iron output was 70.7857 million tons, with a daily average of 2.2834 million tons, an increase of 0.0044 million tons from the previous month. At the end of January, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.47%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points from the end of the previous month. - In January, the weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.2228 million tons, an increase of 0.0574 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.8173 million tons, a decrease of 0.0051 million tons from the previous month [67][70]. 3.6 Basis As of January 30, the estimated basis of the main contract of iron ore BRBF was 27.87 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 3.40% [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Last month, PXN retraced due to lack of fundamental drivers and off - season pressure, while the sharp rise in crude oil compressed chemical valuations. Currently, PX load remains high, downstream PTA has many maintenance activities, and it is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is positive, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [11]. - PTA: Last month, PTA processing fees fluctuated at a high level. Subsequently, the supply side will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber will decline due to the off - season. PTA will enter the Spring Festival stockpiling stage. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and mid - term opportunities to go long on dips should be grasped [12]. - MEG: Last month, there was a game between weak fundamentals and geopolitics. After a sharp rebound, it returned to weak - fundamental trading. Currently, the overall load is still high, and the port stockpiling pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the mid - term. The valuation is currently at a relatively low level, and there is a risk of rebound [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - **Market Review**: Prices rose and then fell last month. As of February 5, the closing price of the 03 contract was 7,098 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 70 yuan; the PX CFR price was 892 dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6 dollars. The basis was - 47 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7 yuan; the 3 - 5 spread was - 102 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 60 yuan [11]. - **Supply**: At the end of the month, China's load was 89.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; Asia's load was 82.4%, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In January and February, the maintenance volume was relatively small, and the load was expected to remain stable [11]. - **Demand**: At the end of the month, the PTA load was 77.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. In February, the maintenance volume was expected to be large, and the average load would remain stable [11]. - **Inventory**: At the end of December, the social inventory was 4.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. According to the balance sheet, there will be a small amount of stockpiling from January to February [11]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Last month, PXN decreased by 42 dollars, and as of February 4, it was 304 dollars. The naphtha crack spread increased by 12 dollars, and as of February 4, it was 93 dollars [11]. PTA - **Market Review**: Prices rose and then fell last month. As of February 5, the closing price of the 05 contract was 5,144 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 58 yuan; the East China spot price was 5,100 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 30 yuan. The basis was - 77 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 28 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread was - 4 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 64 yuan [12]. - **Supply**: At the end of the month, the PTA load was 77.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. In February, the maintenance volume was expected to be large, and the average load would remain stable [12]. - **Demand**: At the end of the month, the polyester load was 79.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%. The terminal situation weakened, and it is expected to gradually recover around the Lantern Festival [12]. - **Inventory**: As of January 30, the total social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.116 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61,000 tons. It is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern [12]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee increased by 180 yuan year - on - year, and as of December 30, it was 345 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee increased by 127 yuan, and as of December 30, it was 345 yuan/ton [12]. MEG - **Market Review**: Prices rebounded and then fell last month. As of February 5, the closing price of the 05 contract was 3,745 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 101 yuan; the East China spot price was 3,649 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 68 yuan. The basis was - 111 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread was - 112 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21 yuan [13]. - **Supply**: At the end of the month, the EG load was 76.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. The import volume in February is expected to decrease slightly [13]. - **Demand**: At the end of the month, the polyester load was 79.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%. The terminal situation weakened, and it is expected to gradually recover around the Lantern Festival [13]. - **Inventory**: As of February 2, the port inventory was 897,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 172,000 tons. Ports are expected to continue stockpiling [13]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Naphtha - based profit decreased by 419 yuan to - 1,175 yuan/ton, domestic ethylene - based profit increased by 190 to - 704 yuan/ton, and coal - based profit decreased by 87 yuan to 101 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **PX**: The basis fluctuated weakly, and the spread was weak. The position was at a high level, and trading volume was strong [32][35]. - **PTA**: The position and trading volume increased [44]. - **MEG**: The basis was weak, and the spread fluctuated weakly. The position decreased [54][62]. 3.3 PX Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: Domestic new capacity includes Fuguidaohua (technical renovation) with 300,000 tons in early 2026, Huajin Aramco with 2 million tons in Q3 2026, and Yantai Yulongdao with 3 million tons from the end of 2026 to 2027. Overseas, IOC in India will add 800,000 tons in H2 2026 [75]. - **Supply**: The January start - up rate was at a historical high [79]. - **Import**: Imports increased significantly in December [83]. - **Inventory**: Inventory continued to accumulate in December [86]. - **Cost and Profit**: PXN retraced, short - process profits decreased, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated [89]. - **Aromatic Hydrocarbon Blending for Oil**: Gasoline performance was weak, the octane value showed certain trends, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread was weak, and the relative value of blending for oil decreased [96][99][103][106]. 3.4 PTA Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, there were new capacities such as Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4. In 2026, India Oil and GAIL will add new capacities [122]. - **Supply**: It has entered the stockpiling cycle [129]. - **Export**: There are data on exports to India, Turkey, and Vietnam [127]. - **Inventory**: It has entered the stockpiling cycle [129]. - **Profit**: There are data on spot and disk processing fees and acetic acid costs [132]. 3.5 MEG Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, there were new capacities such as Zhengdakai Phase I, Yulong Petrochemical 1, and Yichang (Kunpeng Phase I). In 2026, BASF, Tianying, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei will add new capacities [135]. - **Supply**: The overall load remained at a high level [138]. - **Import**: Imports increased significantly in December [140]. - **Inventory**: Due to high imports and the downstream off - season, ports continued to stockpile [150]. - **Cost**: Coal prices fluctuated, ethylene prices were continuously weak, and ethane prices rose [157]. - **Profit**: The valuation was at a relatively low level [160]. 3.6 Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester** - **New Capacity**: There are new bottle - chip production facilities, and new capacities are planned for polyester filament, staple fiber, and chips in 2026 [175][176]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate has entered the off - season [178]. - **Export**: December export data increased year - on - year and month - on - month [184]. - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure of filament was relatively small [187]. - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: There are data on the sales - to - production ratios of filament, staple fiber, and chips [194]. - **Profit**: The profit of filament improved significantly, and the profit of bottle - chips recovered [197][200]. - **Terminal** - **Start - up**: It has entered the off - season [203]. - **Order and Inventory**: Orders declined, inventory decreased, and raw material stockpiling was weak [209]. - **Retail and Export**: The growth rate of domestic demand for textile and clothing decreased, and exports were weak. The US clothing wholesale inventory was below the pre - pandemic high [213][216].

短期商品情绪承压且暂时缺乏驱动， 预计仍延续震荡整理 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 铁合金月报 2026/02/06 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 锰硅产业链示意图 月度评估及策略推荐 行情回顾 资料来源：文华财经，五矿期货研究中心 硅铁产业链示意图 原材料 需求结构 钢铁 70-80% 金属镁 15% 硅铁 建筑（房地产+基建） 60% 机械制造 20% 汽车制造&家电制造 8% 电力 7% 船舶制造 3% 其他 2% 镁合金 40% 镁铝合金 30% 海绵钛 15% 出口 10% 航天航空 交通运输（60%+） 3C产品 镁粉 15% 钢厂脱硫、烟火 钛锭及钛合金， 航空（46%）、 工业（43%）； 主要：韩国（23%）、日本（17%）、台湾（10%） 5%硅石 1.75t 25%兰炭 1.2t 5%氧化铁皮 55%电力 8000度 15%辅料及其他 01 1月份，锰硅盘面价格呈现宽幅震荡走势，月初冲高后震荡回 ...