价值修复并未结束 原油周报 2025/09/20 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 05 原油需求 02 宏观&地缘 06 原油库存 03 油品价差 07 气象灾害 04 原油供应 08 另类数据 01 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估&策略推荐 周度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/11 2025/6/18 2025/6/25 202 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand sides have no significant changes. The production has slowed down after weeks of growth but remains at a relatively high level. Downstream demand from polysilicon and organic silicon can support it in the short - term. The inventory is high with limited marginal reduction. The relative valuation is low compared to polysilicon, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with subsequent focus on supply - demand improvement and policy changes [16]. - For polysilicon, the price continues to oscillate. The market focuses on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer. The inventory reduction space is limited, and the price may experience a phased decline before the policy is implemented. Attention should be paid to position and risk control [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: Polysilicon weekly output is 31,300 tons, DMC output is 48,600 tons (down 300 tons week - on - week), 1 - 8 month aluminum alloy cumulative output is 12.324 billion tons (up 2.163 billion tons or 21.29% year - on - year), and 1 - 7 month industrial silicon cumulative net export is 409,400 tons (up 5,400 tons or 1.33% year - on - year) [14]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon inventory is 692,000 tons (down 2,400 tons week - on - week), including factory inventory of 257,600 tons (down 3,800 tons), market inventory of 185,000 tons (up 2,000 tons), and registered warehouse receipt inventory of 249,400 tons (down 600 tons) [14][15]. - **Price**: As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,100 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), 421 is 9,600 yuan/ton (equivalent to a futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the futures main contract (SI2511) closes at 9,305 yuan/ton (up 560 yuan/ton) [15]. - **Cost**: The average production cost in Xinjiang is 8,458.33 yuan/ton, Yunnan is 9,393.75 yuan/ton, Sichuan is 9,090.48 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia is 9,000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of industrial silicon is 94,700 tons (down 800 tons week - on - week) [15]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,100 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), 421 is 9,600 yuan/ton (equivalent to a futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the futures main contract (SI2511) closes at 9,305 yuan/ton (up 560 yuan/ton) [23]. - **Polysilicon**: As of September 19, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical N - type polysilicon re -投料 is 52.65 yuan/kg (up 1.1 yuan/kg week - on - week), N - type dense material is 51.15 yuan/kg (up 1.1 yuan/kg week - on - week), and the futures main contract (PS2511) closes at 52,700 yuan/ton (down 910 yuan/ton). The basis of the main contract is - 50 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of - 0.09% [26]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - **Total Output**: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly output is 94,700 tons (down 800 tons week - on - week). In August 2025, the output is 370,500 tons (up 49,300 tons month - on - month), and the cumulative output from January to August is down 538,600 tons or 17.44% year - on - year [31]. - **Production in Main Producing Areas**: No specific quantitative changes in the main producing areas are mentioned other than the overall production [30][33][35]. - **Production Cost**: As of September 19, 2025, the electricity price and silica price in the main producing areas are flat week - on - week. The average production cost in Xinjiang is 8,458.33 yuan/ton, Yunnan is 9,393.75 yuan/ton, Sichuan is 9,090.48 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia is 9,000 yuan/ton [43][46]. - **Visible Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory is 692,000 tons (down 2,400 tons week - on - week), including factory inventory of 257,600 tons (down 3,800 tons), market inventory of 185,000 tons (up 2,000 tons), and registered warehouse receipt inventory of 249,400 tons (down 600 tons) [49]. 3.4 Polysilicon - **Output**: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly output is 31,300 tons (basically flat week - on - week), close to the same period in 2024. In August, the output is 131,700 tons (up 25,400 tons month - on - month), and the cumulative output from January to August is 811,100 tons (down 36.67% year - on - year) [54]. - **Operating Rate and Scheduling**: In August, the operating rate is 45.78% (up 6.55 percentage points month - on - month). SMM predicts the output in September to be 126,700 tons, with a decreasing operating rate [57]. - **Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, the factory inventory is 242,100 tons (Bai Chuan Ying Fu's statistics), and the SMM - statistical inventory is 204,000 tons [60]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 19, 2025, the production cost is 41,405.50 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is 9,194.50 yuan/ton [63]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The weekly output is 13.92GW (slightly up week - on - week), the output in August is 56.04GW (up 3.29GW month - on - month), and the cumulative output from January to August is 429.12GW (down 8.77% year - on - year). The inventory is 16.87GW (slightly up week - on - week), and the predicted output in September is 57.53GW (slightly up) [66][69]. - **Battery Cell**: The output in August is 58.27GW (up 0.08GW month - on - month), and the operating rate is 56.89% (down 2.17 percentage points month - on - month). The cumulative output from January to August is 446.87GW (up 0.96% year - on - year). The inventory is 5.94GW (recovering), and the predicted output in September is 60.04GW (slightly up) [74][77]. - **Module**: The output in August is 49.2GW (up 2.1GW month - on - month), and the operating rate is 49.09% (up 3.17 percentage points month - on - month). The cumulative output from January to August is 379.6GW (up 1.31% year - on - year). The inventory is 34.5GW (slightly up), and the predicted output in September is 50.3GW (higher than August) [82][85]. 3.5 Organic Silicon - **Output**: As of September 19, 2025, the DMC output is 48,600 tons (down 300 tons week - on - week). In August, the output is 219,600 tons (up 13,100 tons month - on - month), and the cumulative output from January to August is 1.653 billion tons (up 17.58% year - on - year) [92]. - **Price and Profit**: As of September 19, 2025, the average price of organic silicon is 10,800 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the DMC gross profit is - 1,959.38 yuan/ton [95]. - **Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, the DMC inventory is 45,800 tons (down 1,500 tons week - on - week) [98]. 3.6 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Export - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of September 19, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 is 21,220 yuan/ton (down 250 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,920 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week). The cumulative output from January to August is 12.324 billion tons (up 2.163 billion tons or 21.29% year - on - year). The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy is 57.4%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy is 55.9% [103][106]. - **Export**: From January to July, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon is 409,400 tons (up 5,400 tons or 1.33% year - on - year) [109].

基本面偏弱，债市维持震荡 国债周报 2025/09/20 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 程靖茹（联系人） chengjr@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133937 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 流动性 02 期现市场 05 利率及汇率 03 主要经济数据 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 经济及政策：8月经济数据整体略低于预期，供需两端均有所回落， "反内卷"对价格预期有所提振，但需求和生产端的配合仍有待观察； 出口方面，8月出口数据有所放缓，对美出口回落而非美地区出口增速维持韧性。往后看，在抢出口有所透支以及下半年基数抬升的影响下， 出口可能有一定压力。海外方面，美国9月份降息落地，后续宽松程度需关注关税引起的通胀变动。 1、8月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.2%，环比增长0.37%。8月份，全国服务业生产指数同比增长5.6%；社会消费品零售总额39668亿 元，同比增长3.4%；环比增长0.17%；1-8月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals show that the comprehensive profit of enterprises has declined, the valuation pressure has decreased, the maintenance volume is low, and the production is at a historical high. In the short term, multiple new devices will be tested. On the downstream side, domestic operations have improved. Regarding exports, the anti - dumping tax rate in India has been determined, and exports are expected to weaken after implementation. The cost of calcium carbide has continued to rebound, while caustic soda has declined, leading to stronger overall valuation support. In the medium term, the industry is continuously suppressed by the significant increase in production capacity and the continuous decline in real - estate demand, and the industry pattern has deteriorated. It is necessary to rely on export growth or the implementation of policies to clear old devices to consume the excess domestic production capacity. Overall, given the current situation of strong supply and weak demand in China, with the weakening export outlook, even if the downstream has improved recently, it is still difficult to change the pattern of oversupply. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, there will be a small rebound due to stronger valuation support, improved domestic demand, and a better commodity atmosphere. In the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is reported at 2,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is reported at 2,840 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 680 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. In terms of profit, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has decreased, while the profit of ethylene - based production has increased slightly. Currently, the valuation support is neutral [11] - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. Among them, the utilization rate of calcium carbide - based production is 76.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%; the utilization rate of ethylene - based production is 77.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. Last week, the supply - side load decreased mainly due to the reduced loads of enterprises such as Shaanxi Beiyuan, Gansu Jinchuan, Zhongtai, Henan Yuhang, and Haohua. The load is expected to pick up slightly next week. The overall maintenance volume in September is expected to decline, and multiple devices are expected to be commissioned and put into production, further increasing the supply pressure [11] - **Demand**: Regarding exports, the final anti - dumping tax rate ruling result in India has been announced, and China's tax rate is at a significant disadvantage compared to other countries. Exports are expected to decline after implementation. The operations of the three major downstream industries continued to improve last week. The load of the pipe industry is 39.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%; the load of the film industry is 76.9%, remaining flat month - on - month; the load of the profile industry is 39.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The overall downstream load is 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. The overall downstream operations have stabilized and improved. Last week, the pre - sales volume of PVC was 756,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,000 tons [11] - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 306,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,000 tons; the social inventory was 954,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,000 tons; the overall inventory was 1.26 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,000 tons; the number of warehouse receipts continued to rise. Currently, it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the upstream inventory is gradually transferred to the mid - stream. Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the inventory accumulation is expected to continue [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The basis and price spread in the futures and spot market are fluctuating weakly, but specific data and analysis details are not provided in the text, only relevant charts are mentioned [16] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The profit of chlor - alkali integration has declined, and the valuation is neutral. The text also provides charts showing the profit trends of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, PVC calcium carbide - based production, PVC ethylene - based production, and Inner Mongolia's calcium carbide production [40] - **Inventory**: The text provides charts showing the inventory trends of PVC in - factory inventory, ethylene - based in - factory inventory, calcium carbide - based in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventory, and warehouse receipts [34][37][39] 4. Cost Side - **Calcium Carbide**: Calcium carbide prices have continued to rebound. The price of Wuhai calcium carbide and Shandong calcium carbide has increased week - on - week. The text also provides charts showing the price trends of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide, calcium carbide inventory, and calcium carbide operating rate [47][49] - **Other Raw Materials**: Semi - coke prices have risen, while caustic soda prices have fallen. The text provides charts showing the price trends of semi - coke in Shaanxi, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot prices [52][53] 5. Supply Side - In 2025, the production capacity of PVC will be significantly increased, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. Multiple enterprises such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical (Phase II) will put new production capacity into operation. The total planned new production capacity in 2025 is 2.5 million tons/year [61][66] 6. Demand Side - The operating loads of the three major downstream industries of PVC have continued to improve. The operating rates of pipes, films, and profiles have either increased or remained stable. The pre - sales volume of PVC has also increased. However, regarding exports, due to the anti - dumping tax rate ruling in India, exports are expected to decline [78][11]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The zinc ore's domestic TC has stopped rising, and although the imported TC continues to increase, the low Shanghai-London ratio may significantly slow down the upward rate of the imported TC, alleviating the oversupply of zinc ore. China's zinc ingot social inventory is still in an accumulation trend, while the LME zinc ingot inventory overseas continues to decline, and the Shanghai-London ratio continues to weaken. On the early morning of September 18th, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the monetary policy statement was less dovish than the market expected, cooling the sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will operate weakly in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.01% at 22,049 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 236,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME zinc 3S fell 2 to $2,919/ton compared to the same period the previous day, with a total position of 213,400 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 21,990 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of -65 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis of -65 yuan/ton, Guangdong basis of -80 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai-Guangdong spread of 15 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, China's social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 158,500 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 52,500 tons, with an internal Shanghai basis of -65 yuan/ton and a spread of 5 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 48,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 17,500 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was $24.27/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $46.51/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai-London ratio on the disk was 1.064, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -3,119.55 yuan/ton. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 111 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 315,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 647,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.05%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 367,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 53.78%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.11%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [11]. 3.2 Macro - analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In July 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 346,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of -5.68% and a month - on - month change of 7.53%. From January to July, the total zinc ore output was 2,080,500 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -2.27%. The net import of zinc ore in July was 501,400 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 37.8% and a month - on - month change of 52.0%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 3,034,800 dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 46.2%. The total domestic zinc ore supply in July was 572,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 7.7% and a month - on - month change of 21.5%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 3,446,200 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.5% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In August 2025, the zinc ingot output was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 28.8% and a month - on - month change of 3.9%. From January to August, the total zinc ingot output was 4,469,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.5%. The net import of zinc ingots in July was 20,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 9.6% and a month - on - month change of -46.8%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 216,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -15.1%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply in July was 623,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 22.6% and a month - on - month change of 0.0%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 4,059,300 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.4% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - stage Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.05%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 367,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 53.78%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.11%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [40]. - **Apparent Demand**: In July 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 595,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 7.0% and a month - on - month change of -2.0%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 3,971,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.3% [42]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In July 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 27,200 tons. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 88,200 tons [53]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In June 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a shortage of -42,600 tons. From January to June, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 7,000 tons [56]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, China's social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 158,500 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 52,500 tons, with an internal Shanghai basis of -65 yuan/ton and a spread of 5 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract [61]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 48,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 17,500 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was $24.27/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $46.51/ton [64]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai-London ratio on the disk was 1.064, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -3,119.55 yuan/ton [67]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai zinc decreased slightly, the net long position of investment funds in London zinc increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, it is neutral [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is favorable, with the prices of finished steel products continuing to fluctuate in a moderately strong manner. Overseas, after the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the monetary policy stance is cautious, and a preventive rate cut has begun. In the short term, market sentiment has cooled slightly; in the long term, global liquidity easing is expected to drive a manufacturing recovery, indirectly boosting steel demand. [11][12] - In China, economic data in August slowed down and fell short of expectations, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales performance remains weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. Exports showed a slight decline last week and are in a weak and volatile state. [11][12] - Fundamentally, the output of rebar has declined, apparent demand has increased slightly, and inventory pressure has marginally eased; the output of hot - rolled coils has increased, apparent demand is neutral, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the peak - season demand is lackluster. Overall, although the traditional peak season has arrived, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot - rolled coils have some resilience, they are still weak overall. If the demand cannot be effectively restored in the future, steel prices may still face a downward risk. Attention should be paid to the policy trends of the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session. [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - side - **Production volume**: This week, the total rebar output was 2.06 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.59% and a year - on - year increase of 9.86%. The cumulative output was 81.1297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.04%. The long - process output was 1.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.63% and a year - on - year increase of 7.69%. The short - process output was 0.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.30% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. [6] - **Capacity utilization**: This week, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 90% (unchanged from the previous value), and the electric - furnace capacity utilization rate was 54%, down from 55% in the previous period. [53] - **Hot - metal output**: The average daily hot - metal output this week was 2.41 million tons, the same as the previous value. [58] - **Regional output**: The rebar output in the northern region was 0.4 million tons (down from 0.45 million tons in the previous period), and in the southern region was 0.83 million tons (up from 0.8 million tons in the previous period). The output in East China was 0.83 million tons, including 0.35 million tons in Jiangsu, 0.08 million tons in Shandong, and 0.18 million tons in Anhui. The output in Guangdong was 0.23 million tons, and in Guangxi was 0.08 million tons. [61][64][67] 3.2 Demand - side - **Apparent demand**: This week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1 million tons, compared with 1.98 million tons in the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. The cumulative demand was 78.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. [7] - **Building - material trading volume**: The trading volume of building materials was 117,741 tons (up from 105,098 tons last week), and the trading volume of building materials in Shanghai was 18,400 tons (unchanged from last week). [70] - **Regional trading volume**: The trading volume of construction steel for mainstream traders in the northern region was 20,465 tons, and in Beijing was 8,120 tons. In East China, it was 35,531 tons, including 4,970 tons in Shanghai and 4,900 tons in Hangzhou. In the southern region, it was 31,840 tons, and in Guangzhou was 5,000 tons. In Chengdu, it was 2,620 tons, in Chongqing was 5,000 tons, and in Xi'an was 2,300 tons. [72][73][76] - **Consumption volume**: The weekly consumption volume of rebar was 2.1 million tons, with 0.87 million tons in East China, 0.34 million tons in Southwest China, 0.26 million tons in South China, 0.11 million tons in North China, 0.19 million tons in Central China, 0.17 million tons in Northeast China, and 0.13 million tons in Northwest China. [78][80][83] - **Related prices and trade**: The price of cement (P.O 42.5) in Hangzhou was 465 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 455 yuan/ton. [85] 3.3 Profit - **Furnace profit**: The blast - furnace profit for rebar in East China remained around 22 yuan/ton, and the on - the - spot profit increased slightly. The profit during off - peak electricity hours was - 33 yuan/ton, and the price performance was neutral. [6] - **Electric - furnace profit**: The average profit of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills was - 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton compared with last week. The blast - furnace profit for rebar was 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton compared with last week. [9][39] - **Cost**: The cost of hot - metal was 2,625 yuan/ton, the cost of scrap steel delivered to the factory was 2,257 yuan/ton, and the average cost of hot - metal for 64 steel mills was 2,625 yuan/ton. [9][47] 3.4 Inventory - **Total inventory**: This week, the social inventory of rebar was 4.85 million tons (down from 4.87 million tons in the previous period), a week - on - week decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 36.3%. The factory inventory was 1.65 million tons (down from 1.67 million tons in the previous period), a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 20.0%. The total inventory was 6.5 million tons (down from 6.54 million tons in the previous period), a week - on - week decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 31.7%. The inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.22 million tons, down from 1.29 million tons in the previous period. [8][88][90] - **Regional inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 132 cities was 6.9 million tons, in East China was 3.29 million tons, in Hangzhou was 0.96 million tons, and in Shanghai was 0.37 million tons. In South China, it was 0.72 million tons, in North China was 0.99 million tons, in Guangzhou was 0.18 million tons, and in Beijing was 0.46 million tons. In Central China, it was 0.51 million tons, in Northwest China was 0.5 million tons, in Wuhan was 0.2 million tons, and in Xi'an was 0.22 million tons. In Southwest China, it was 0.62 million tons, in Northeast China was 0.59 million tons, in Chengdu was 0.23 million tons, and in Chongqing was 0.17 million tons. [93][96][99][102] 3.5期现市场 - **Price and basis**: The lowest - warehouse - receipt basis was 28 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.9%. The basis for the 01 contract was 9 yuan/ton, the 05 contract was - 48 yuan/ton, and the 10 contract was 102 yuan/ton. [10][20] - **Spread**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts of rebar was - 57 yuan/ton, between the 05 and 10 contracts was 150 yuan/ton, and between the 10 and 01 contracts was - 93 yuan/ton. The Beijing rebar - hot - rolled coil spread was 290 yuan/ton (up from 250 yuan/ton last week), the Shanghai spread was 140 yuan/ton (down from 190 yuan/ton last week), and the Guangzhou spread was 60 yuan/ton (down from 100 yuan/ton last week). The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 70 yuan/ton (up from 40 yuan/ton last week), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai spread was - 7 yuan/ton (up from - 37 yuan/ton last week). The Beijing premium for spiral rebar was 150 yuan/ton (up from 140 yuan/ton last week), the Shanghai premium was 130 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week), and the Guangzhou premium was 160 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week). [22][25][28][30] - **Other prices**: The price of billets (20MnSi) in Tangshan was 3,130 yuan/ton, the aggregated price of rebar (HRB400E, Φ20) in Beijing was 3,170 yuan/ton, the FOB export price of rebar in China was 471 US dollars/ton, the CFR import price of rebar in Southeast Asia was 470 US dollars/ton, in the United States was 985 US dollars/ton, in the EU was 605 US dollars/ton, and the CFR import price of rebar from the UAE in the Middle East was 640 US dollars/ton. The lowest spot price of rebar was 3,156 yuan/ton, the lowest spot price of coke was 1,438 yuan/ton, and the lowest spot price of iron ore was 936 yuan/ton. [33][36] 3.6 Trading Strategy Suggestion No trading strategy suggestions were provided in the report. [13]

港口库存再创新高， 盘面增仓下跌 甲醇周报 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 2025/09/20 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结 | 行情回顾 | 本周盘面延续下行，周五在伊朗限气消息影响下价格有所反弹，港口库存再度创出新高，周四1-5价差大跌后周五收回，基差 有所走强，目前高库存下价格表现偏弱，市场上涨靠消息驱动，整体仍难有趋势性行情。 | | --- | --- | | |  本周开工79.91，环比-5.52%。 供应  海外开工69.71%，环比回落。市场传伊朗将在10月限制甲醇工厂工业天然气供应。  港口煤炭价格企稳回升。 | | |  港口烯烃装置回归，本周开工83.24%，环比+18.55%，开工回到高位。 需求  传统需求甲醛、醋酸开工小幅回落，其余走高，需求小幅回暖 | | 基本面 |  盘面下跌，基差走强，1-5价差大跌后收回，同比低位。  现货走 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current pig market shows a significant oversupply situation. Spot prices are falling rapidly due to large - scale group and散户 sales, and the future spot trend remains pessimistic. - The fundamentals in 2025 may be weaker than in 2024 due to the continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year. However, the expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction is strong, which may improve the supply situation next year. - Demand may improve marginally at the beginning and middle of September due to school openings, temperature drops, and festival preparations, but it will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches. - The short - term trend of the futures market is likely to remain weak. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts on rebounds and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks. [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: The oversupply has led to a spread of pessimistic sentiment, with domestic pig prices accelerating their decline last week. Group and散户 sales have increased supply pressure, and the future spot trend is still pessimistic. For example, the average price in Henan dropped by 0.5 yuan to 12.96 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 0.84 yuan to 12.36 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong by 1.2 yuan to 13.36 yuan/kg. - **Supply Side**: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, 3.6% more than the normal level. The supply from September to November is expected to increase, but the weight reduction by group factories from June to August may partially offset the supply pressure. - **Demand Side**: Demand may improve marginally in early - mid September but will decline after the National Day. - **Strategy**: Maintain the idea of shorting near - month contracts and conducting reverse arbitrage. For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and short on rebounds for the 11 and 01 contracts. For arbitrage, conduct 3 - 5 and 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage. [11][13] 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - **Spot Trend**: The oversupply has led to a rapid decline in pig prices last week, with group and散户 sales increasing supply pressure. The future spot trend is pessimistic. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price has dropped significantly, the basis has declined, and the month - to - month spread follows the reverse arbitrage logic. - **Prices of Piglets and Sows**: No specific analysis of price trends is provided in the text, only relevant price charts are presented. [22][25] 3.3. Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, 10,000 less than the previous month but still 3.6% more than the normal level. The effectiveness of capacity reduction needs more evidence. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From September to November, the basic supply will increase, but the weight reduction by group factories from June to August may partially offset the supply pressure. - **Slaughter of Different - Sized Pigs**: The proportion of small - pig slaughter has slightly increased, indicating a slight increase in pig diseases. The proportion of large - pig slaughter is not high, and attention should be paid to the fat - standard price difference. - **Other Indicators**: Slaughter volume is increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms is starting to stabilize and rise, showing an oversupply situation. [33][42][45] 3.4. Demand Side - Demand may improve marginally in early - mid September due to school openings, temperature drops, and festival preparations. However, it will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches. [58] 3.5. Cost and Profit - Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost is continuously declining. However, pig prices are the weakest in the same period over the years, and the industry has suffered full - scale losses this year. [69] 3.6. Inventory Side - The frozen - product inventory is slowly rising. [74]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report This week, the social inventory of stainless steel continued to decline, mainly due to the continuous consumption of inventory by downstream rigid - demand procurement and limited arrival resources from leading steel mills such as Tsingshan. The demand side was generally weak, with the traditional peak season starting less than expected. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the willingness to stock up before the festival was generally low. In terms of cost, raw material prices remained high, with high - nickel iron prices remaining strong and chromite prices still on the rise, resulting in limited new supply of ferrochrome and strong cost support. It is expected that the social inventory will continue to decline, and there is room for marginal improvement in the supply - demand structure. It is recommended to mainly place long orders on dips [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: As of September 19, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 13,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.38%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 955 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,200 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,875 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.04%. In September, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.5156 million tons. In August, the crude steel output was 2.9028 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 78,700 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to August was 6.48%. From January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%. In August, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98%. In August, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators/household freezers/washing machines/air conditioners were - 1/2.5/12.3/ - 1.6% respectively. In August, the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry was 19.3%. This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 987,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.51%. The futures warehouse receipt inventory this week was 89,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,217 tons. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong this week was 965 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 71 yuan/nickel [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - The average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi on September 19 was 13,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.38%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 955 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,200 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,875 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.04% [17]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was at a premium of about 25 yuan (+8) compared to the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was at a premium of about 25 yuan (- 42) compared to the main contract. The trading volume on the disk was 278,734 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2.16% [20]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 50 (+25), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 115 (+5) [23]. 3. Supply Side - In September, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.5156 million tons. In August, the crude steel output was 2.9028 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 78,700 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to August was 6.48% [27]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel in August was 1.4336 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. In September, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 783,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.21% [30]. - It is expected that the monthly stainless steel output in Indonesia in July was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.56%. In July, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 46,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46.09% [33]. - In July, the net export volume of stainless steel was 343,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.37% and a year - on - year increase of 20.57%. From January to July, the cumulative net export was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [36]. 4. Demand Side - From January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%. In August, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98% [40]. - In August, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators/household freezers/washing machines/air conditioners were - 1/2.5/12.3/ - 1.6% respectively. In August, the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry was 19.3% [43]. - In August, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 119,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 3.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03%. In August, the automobile sales volume was 2.8566 million units, a month - on - month increase of 10.15% and a year - on - year increase of 16.44% [46]. 5. Inventory - This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 987,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.51%. The futures warehouse receipt inventory this week was 89,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,217 tons [50]. - This week, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 168,100 tons, 617,900 tons, and 201,100 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.93% week - on - week. This week, the floating inventory of stainless steel was 66,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.26%, and the unloading volume was 99,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43.22% [53]. 6. Cost Side - In July, the nickel ore import volume was 5.0058 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.44% and a year - on - year increase of 45.19%. Currently, the quotation for Ni:1.5% nickel ore was 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory was 14.0011 million wet tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.01% [57]. - The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong this week was 965 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 71 yuan/nickel [60]. - This week, the chromite quotation was 56.5 yuan/dry ton, with no week - on - week change. The high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,500 yuan/50 - base ton, with no week - on - week change. In August, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 813,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.55% [63]. - Currently, the gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line was - 623 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reached - 4.54% [66].

旺季底部支撑较强 碳酸锂周报 2025/09/20 曾宇轲（联系人） 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03121027 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 供给端 06 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 02 期现市场 期现市场 ◆ 期现市场：9月19日，五矿钢联碳酸锂现货指数（MMLC）早盘报72987元，周涨2.46%，其中MMLC电池级碳酸锂均价为73250元。同日广期所 LC2511收盘价73960元，周内涨3.93%。 ◆ 供给：9月18日，SMM国内碳酸锂周度产量20363吨，环比增2.0%。锂辉石提锂周产量上升，带动国内碳酸锂周产量创新高。2025年8月国内碳 酸锂产量85240吨，环比增4.6%，同比增39.5%，前八月累计同比增40.4%。2025年7月、8月智利碳酸锂出口数量为2.09万吨和1.69万吨，其 中出口到中国为1.36万吨和1.30万吨，分别同比减少13%和增长6.9%。 ◆ 需 ...