1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the profitability of steel mills was still in a low - range, but slightly improved compared to the previous period. Steel prices maintained a low - level volatile operation. The cost of raw materials remained resilient, and the immediate profit repair space for steel mills was limited. The production side continued to be cautious. The monthly profit rate of steel mills was 39.39%, slightly up from the previous month, but still in the low - profit range [11]. - In terms of supply, in January 2026, the output of rebar was 9.6894 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 180,000 tons (+1.94%) and a month - on - month increase of 31.98%. The output of hot - rolled coils was 15.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 398,900 tons (-2.54%) and a month - on - month increase of 26.85%. The daily average output of hot metal was 2.2839 million tons, remaining at a moderately low level. Affected by the approaching Spring Festival and limited profit repair, steel mills' production was still cautious, but due to the low base in the previous period, the output of finished products increased month - on - month. The output of rebar increased against the seasonal trend, and the output of plates was relatively neutral, with the overall supply pressure easing [11]. - Regarding demand, in January 2026, the apparent consumption of rebar was 9.2766 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5974 million tons (+20.80%) and a month - on - month increase of 11.58%. The apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 15.5464 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 630,000 tons (+4.24%) and a month - on - month increase of 26.17%. Overall, the demand side improved significantly year - on - year and showed seasonal repair characteristics month - on - month. The demand for rebar increased temporarily driven by the low base and concentrated project rush, but the overall real - estate investment was still weak, restricting the sustainability of demand. The demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively stable, with a slight year - on - year increase supported by the resilience of the manufacturing industry and exports, without obvious weakening [11]. - In terms of inventory, as of the end of January 2026, the inventory of rebar was 4.7553 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.776 million tons. The inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.5558 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 330,000 tons (-8.50%). Structurally, the inventory of building materials decreased significantly year - on - year, and the inventory level of plates also decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, with the overall inventory pressure continuing to ease. As the Spring Festival approached, short - term demand might weaken again, and the inventory reduction rhythm might slow down, but the low - inventory pattern year - on - year supported prices [11]. - Currently, the black - series is in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. On the one hand, the domestic policy tone remains marginally loose, providing support for demand expectations. On the other hand, the uncertainty of overseas monetary policy has increased, and market volatility has intensified. In the short term, the black - series will mainly operate in a range - bound manner, and the trend opportunities are not yet clear. Attention should be paid to inventory changes around the Spring Festival, the recovery rhythm of plate demand, and the marginal changes in "dual - carbon" related policies [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: In January 2026, the profitability of steel mills was in a low - range but slightly improved. Steel prices were volatile at a low level, and the cost of raw materials was resilient, limiting the profit repair space. The monthly profit rate of steel mills was 39.39%, still in the low - profit range [11]. - **Supply**: Rebar output increased year - on - year and month - on - month, while hot - rolled coil output decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The daily average output of hot metal was at a moderately low level. Steel mills' production was cautious, but the output of finished products increased month - on - month due to the low base [11]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The demand for rebar increased temporarily, but real - estate investment restricted its sustainability. The demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively stable [11]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased year - on - year. The inventory of building materials decreased significantly, and the inventory of plates also decreased. As the Spring Festival approached, short - term demand might weaken, and the inventory reduction rhythm might slow down [11]. - **Summary**: The black - series is in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it will operate in a range - bound manner, and attention should be paid to inventory changes, plate demand recovery, and "dual - carbon" policies [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts show the price trends, trading volumes, basis, and price differences of rebar, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and other steel products in different regions and contract months, as well as the price differences between different regions and different steel products [23][25][28]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: Charts show the盘面 profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, and the profit of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces [78][81][83]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coils, including total inventory, factory inventory, and social inventory, as well as the inventory of steel billets and other related products [91][94][104]. 3.4 Cost End - Charts show the ratios of rebar to iron ore and coke futures, daily average hot metal and crude steel output, the price of billets, the price difference between rebar and billets, the price of scrap steel, and the consumption of scrap steel [110][113][115]. 3.5 Supply End - Charts show the output, cumulative year - on - year output, and capacity utilization rate of rebar and hot - rolled coils [130][132][135]. 3.6 Demand and Import - Export - **Demand**: Charts show the apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the production and export volume of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners [142][145][149]. - **Import - Export**: Charts show the monthly import and export volume of steel, rebar, and plates [155][157][160].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - to - long - term, the report maintains the view that the long - position trend of commodities will continue. However, in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise has dragged down the sentiment of the non - ferrous and commodity long - positions, which may still suppress the overall market atmosphere [20]. - The weekly static supply - demand structure of coking coal has become looser due to the gradual recovery of supply after the New Year's Day, the high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance, and the slow resumption of hot metal production. Coke also shows a relatively loose situation. Although downstream players are still replenishing inventory, the inventory replenishment is coming to an end, and the downstream steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory is low. Therefore, the inventory replenishment is unlikely to drive up prices [20]. - Although the coking coal price has occasional abnormal increases driven by external disturbances and capital, the short - term upward impetus is not strong. On the one hand, the fundamental support is insufficient; on the other hand, the market sentiment does not support a strong upward trend. Also, considering the time node, there is a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival, unless there are sudden supply - side incidents. However, coking coal may have a relatively smooth upward trend in 2026, especially from June to October [20][22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review** - In January, the coking coal futures price showed a volatile rebound, with a monthly increase of 51.5 yuan/ton or +4.63%. Last week, it showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a weekly decline of 14.5 yuan/ton or - 1.15%. The overseas coal - related disturbances, though not directly affecting the domestic short - term fundamentals, have a positive impact on market sentiment. Meanwhile, the sharp fluctuations of precious metals have amplified the volatility of coking coal futures [11][14]. - In January, the coke futures price showed a wide - range volatile trend, with a monthly increase of 31.5 yuan/ton or +1.86%. Last week, it also showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a weekly decline of 20.5 yuan/ton or - 1.19%. The price movement mainly depends on the cost - side coking coal fluctuations [18]. - **Monthly Key Points Summary** - **Spot Price and Basis**: Different types of coking coal and coke have different price changes and basis situations. For example, Shanxi low - sulfur coking coal is at 1550.6 yuan/ton, with a certain price change compared to the previous period, and the basis shows a premium to the futures [19]. - **Variety Positions**: The current position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the 4 - month contract position is also abnormally high and increasing, so the pressure of warehouse receipts after price increases needs to be watched [19]. - **Domestic Output**: The daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines decreased by 1.62 tons month - on - month due to the Spring Festival holiday. However, the cumulative output increased by about 188 tons or +4.52% year - on - year (affected by the misalignment of the Lunar New Year) [19]. - **Overseas Imports**: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased to 12.33 tons/day but is still at a relatively high level in the same period. The import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal is - 316 yuan/ton, and the import window remains closed [19]. - **Demand**: The total daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants increased by 0.53 tons month - on - month. The independent coking plant's coking profit is - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton month - on - month. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises increased by 0.60 tons month - on - month, and the steel mill profitability rate remained stable. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 41.08 tons month - on - month but increased by 145.1 tons year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment). The available steel inventory increased by 89.03 tons month - on - month but decreased by 386.97 tons year - on - year [19]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The estimated daily average supply of coking coal nationwide is 150.89 tons, with a slight decline month - on - month. The estimated daily average demand for coking coal converted from coke output and hot metal both increased slightly. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is marginally looser [20]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory increased by 61.29 tons, with different changes in different sectors. The total coke inventory increased by 15.58 tons, also with different inventory changes in different sectors [20]. - **Summary and Outlook**: In the short term, the upward impetus for coking coal is weak. After the Spring Festival, there is a risk of price correction. However, coking coal may have a good upward trend from June to October in 2026 [20][22]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Coking Coal Spot Price**: As of February 5, 2026, different types of coking coal, such as low - sulfur, medium - sulfur, and Mongolian coking coal, have different price changes compared to the previous period and different basis situations with the futures [26][28][31]. - **Coke Spot Price**: As of February 5, 2026, the prices of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke have changed compared to the previous period, and their basis with the futures also shows different situations [37]. - **Coking Coal Basis and Spread**: As of February 5, 2026, the basis of Shanxi low - sulfur coking coal and Jinquan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal has changed compared to the previous period. The 5 - 9 spread of coking coal is - 76 yuan/ton, and the overall structure is in contango [44][47]. - **Coke Basis and Spread**: As of February 5, 2026, the basis of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke has changed compared to the previous period. The 5 - 9 spread of coke is - 66 yuan/ton, and the overall structure is also in contango [50][53]. 3.3 Positions and Variety Ratios - **Variety Positions**: As of February 5, 2026, the total unilateral position of coking coal is 647,700 lots, an increase of 30,800 lots month - on - month, and it is still at a relatively high historical level. The unilateral position of coke is 39,000 lots, an increase of 400 lots month - on - month. The position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the 4 - month contract position is abnormally high and increasing [62][63]. - **Variety Ratios**: This week, the ratio of JM/I increased by 0.07, and HC/JM decreased by 0.06, indicating that coking coal performed slightly stronger than iron ore and hot - rolled coil this week. Currently, JM/I is still at a low historical level, and the valuation of coking coal relative to iron ore is low. The ratio of J/I increased by 0.11, HC/J decreased by 0.04, and JM/J remained basically stable, indicating that coke was slightly stronger than iron ore and hot - rolled coil this week. Currently, J/I is also at a low historical level, and the valuation of coke relative to iron ore is low [69][72]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Domestic Coking Coal Output**: As of February 5, 2026, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines is 75.45 tons, a decrease of 1.62 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output increased by about 188 tons or +4.52% year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment). The daily average output of clean coal from 314 sample coal - washing plants is 26.31 tons, a decrease of 0.46 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output increased by about 240 tons or +27.3% year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment) [77][79]. - **Imported Coking Coal**: As of January 31, 2026, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased to 12.33 tons/day but is still at a relatively high level in the same period. In 2025, China's cumulative imports of Mongolian coking coal increased by 328.19 tons or +5.78% year - on - year. The import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal is - 316 yuan/ton, and the import window remains closed. In 2025, China's cumulative imports of Australian coking coal decreased by 144.58 tons or - 14.03% year - on - year. China's imports of coking coal from Russia and Canada increased in 2025, while imports from the United States decreased significantly due to tariffs [82][85][88]. - **Coke Output**: As of February 5, 2026, the total daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants is 10.38 tons, an increase of 0.53 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output decreased by about 71.19 tons or - 1.52% year - on - year. The coking profit of independent coking plants is - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton month - on - month. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants increased month - on - month [94][97]. - **Downstream Steel Industry**: As of February 5, 2026, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises is 228.58 tons, an increase of 0.60 tons month - on - month, and the steel mill profitability rate is 39.39%, remaining stable month - on - month. The estimated disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil are - 164 yuan/ton and - 107 yuan/ton respectively, with a slight month - on - month increase. The apparent consumption of five major steel products is 760.66 tons, a decrease of 41.08 tons month - on - month but an increase of 145.1 tons year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment). The available steel inventory is 2439.65 tons, an increase of 89.03 tons month - on - month but a decrease of 386.97 tons year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment) [100][106][110]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The estimated daily average supply of coking coal nationwide is 150.89 tons, with a slight decline month - on - month. The estimated daily average demand for coking coal converted from coke output and hot metal both increased slightly. The supply - demand structure of coking coal is marginally looser. The estimated daily average demand for coke converted from hot metal is about 109.72 tons, still slightly lower than the daily average coke output, and the supply - demand structure of coke is also marginally looser [112]. 3.5 Inventory - **Inventory Overview**: As of February 5, 2026, the total coking coal inventory increased by 61.29 tons, with different changes in different sectors such as mines, coking plants, steel mills, and ports. The total coke inventory increased by 15.58 tons, also with different inventory changes in different sectors [115][116].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has entered the inventory accumulation period around the Spring Festival. With weak demand and high inventory, the spot price is likely to fall rather than rise, driving the futures market downward. Considering the rapid accumulation of pre - festival inventory and the significant decline in spot prices, the near - month contracts may still need to squeeze out the premium. Maintain a short - selling strategy. The far - end market will re - trade the logic of production capacity reduction after the spot price turns, but the implementation path under low cost and high premium remains uncertain, and attention should be paid to the pressure after the price rises [11][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: From January to now, domestic egg prices first soared and then fell due to sentiment. At the beginning of the month, industry players were bullish, with fast market sales and low upstream and downstream inventories. By the end of the month, the price increase accelerated and exceeded expectations. However, from the end of the month to now, due to risk - control sentiment, demand decreased, inventory increased significantly, and egg prices dropped sharply from the high. In January, the slaughter of laying hens slowed down, the average age of hens increased, and the prices of chicks and young chickens rose. In February, market demand will gradually weaken, and egg prices will generally decline. After the Spring Festival, egg prices may fall below the cost [11] - **Restocking and Culling**: In January, 86.44 million hens were restocked, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% and a month - on - month increase of 9.2%. The restocking sentiment is not as strong as last year, but it has improved month - on - month due to the increase in spot prices and the optimistic market outlook. The prices of chicks have also risen from the low. Due to the previous low egg prices and continuous breeding losses, the slaughter of hens increased, and the average age of hens decreased. During the pre - Spring Festival stocking period, the sales of eggs were fast, and the egg price increase exceeded expectations. The breeding sector returned to profitability, which led to a slowdown in hen slaughter, and the average age of hens has now stopped falling and increased to 495 days [11] - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of January, the inventory of laying hens was 1.342 billion, lower than the previous value but higher than expected. The main reason is that the decrease in previous restocking led to a decline in newly - laid hens, but the slowdown in hen slaughter since January slowed down the decline in inventory, and the absolute value is still high. Based on the previous restocking data and normal hen slaughter, it is expected that the inventory will gradually peak and decline in the future, dropping to 1.289 billion by June this year, a decline of 3.9%. Although the relative supply will gradually decrease, the absolute supply is still relatively high [11] - **Demand Side**: As egg prices have risen to a phased high, traders are more cautious, and the market purchase volume may decrease. As the Spring Festival approaches, migrant workers are returning home, and the export of eggs is gradually turning into domestic sales. In the short term, attention should be paid to the digestion of domestic sales in the production areas [11] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in far - month contracts at high prices, short - sell near - month contracts such as 03 on rebounds, and pay attention to the possible logic switch after the Spring Festival. The profit - loss ratio is 2:1, and the recommended period is 1.5 months. The core driving logic includes inventory, spot price, and seasonality [13] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price Trend**: From January to now, domestic egg prices first rose and then fell. In February, market demand will gradually weaken, and egg prices will generally decline. After the Spring Festival, egg prices may fall below the cost. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.3 yuan to 3.1 yuan per catty in January, with a monthly high of 3.8 yuan per catty [20] - **Basis and Spread**: The spot price has dropped significantly, and the basis has returned to normal. As the spot price turns downward, the monthly spread is more suitable for reverse arbitrage [23] - **Slaughtered Hen Price**: As egg prices rebounded from the low and breeding became profitable, farmers were reluctant to sell, and the price of slaughtered hens and the average age of hens increased [26] - **Chick and Young Chicken Price**: Due to the increase in restocking sentiment, the prices of chicks and young chickens have risen from the low [11] 3. Supply Side - **Egg - Laying Hen Restocking**: In January, 86.44 million hens were restocked, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% and a month - on - month increase of 9.2%. The restocking sentiment has improved month - on - month due to the increase in spot prices and the optimistic market outlook [33] - **Slaughtered Hen Sales**: The previous low egg prices and breeding losses led to continuous large - scale slaughter of hens and a decline in the average age of hens. During the pre - Spring Festival stocking period, the egg price increase exceeded expectations, and the breeding sector returned to profitability, which led to a slowdown in hen slaughter, and the average age of hens has now stopped falling and increased to 495 days [36] - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of January, the inventory of laying hens was 1.342 billion, lower than the previous value but higher than expected. It is expected that the inventory will gradually decline to 1.289 billion by June this year, a decline of 3.9%, but the absolute supply is still relatively high [38][41] 4. Demand Side - As egg prices have risen to a phased high, traders are more cautious, and the market purchase volume may decrease. As the Spring Festival approaches, migrant workers are returning home, and the export of eggs is gradually turning into domestic sales. In the short term, attention should be paid to the digestion of domestic sales in the production areas [46] 5. Cost and Profit - The cost is lower year - on - year and has increased month - on - month. After the increase in spot prices, the breeding profitability has significantly recovered to the normal seasonal level [51] 6. Inventory Side - The pre - festival inventory has increased significantly, indicating that the supply scale is still large [56]

01 月度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 沃什被提名为联储主席， 金银价格大幅下跌 贵金属月报 2026/02/06 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 05 贵金属价差 01 月度评估及行情展望 月度总结 ◆ 月度行情总结：2026 年 1 月，贵金属市场的政策博弈与杠杆资金动向深度交织，共同主导了全月的价格涨跌与剧烈波动。市场完整经历了 "震荡上行-高位回调-月末修复"的走势：政策博弈是触发波动的核心因素，而杠杆资金的快速进出则显著放大了波动幅度。中上旬市场对 于美国降息预期升温叠加特朗普停征白银关税导致现货收紧等因素支撑，市场看涨情绪高度一致，杠杆资金加速入场助推金银价格走强，形 成共振上涨格局。 ◆ 1月下旬市场格局发生剧烈反转，短期波动进一步加剧。在海内外交易所先后上调金银保证金的背景下，1月29日特朗普提名沃什出任美联储 主席的消息引发宏观政策预期转向，市场看涨预期被快速逆转，直接触发杠杆资金大规模撤离，集中出逃 ...

短期观望 甲醇月报 2026/02/06 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估 05 需求端 02 期现市场 行情走势 图1：甲醇指数 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 01 月度评估 1,800.0 2,000.0 2,200.0 2,400.0 2,600.0 2,800.0 3,000.0 2025-01-01 2025-01-08 2025-01-15 2025-01-22 2025-01-29 2025-02-05 2025-02-12 2025-02-19 2025-02-26 2025-03-05 2025-03-12 2025-03-19 2025-03-26 2025-04-02 2025-04-09 2025-04-16 2025-04-23 2025-04-30 2025-05-07 2025-05-14 2025-05-21 2025-05-28 2025-06- ...

徐绍祖（联系人） PP需求或将好于同期， 逢低做多PP2605-2609 聚烯烃月报 2026/02/06 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 02 期现市场 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐—1月总结 估值：美伊谈判反复，原油大幅波动，聚烯烃跟随震荡。 成本端：WTI原油上涨14.02%，Brent原油上涨14.43%，煤价无变动0.00%，甲醇下跌-3.36%，乙烯上涨10.15%，丙烯上涨11.04%， 丙烷上涨4.98%。油价大幅波动，供需双弱背景下成本端影响较大。 供应端：PE产能利用率87.03%，环比上涨4.42%，同比去年下降-1.81%，较5年同期平均下降-9.28%。PP产能利用率74.90%，环比上 涨0.03%，同比去年下降-5.82%，较5年同期平均下降-19.23%，聚烯烃2605合约无新增产 ...

陈逸 （联系人） 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023202 日熔量降至低位， 去库持续性仍不足 玻璃月报 从业资格号：F03137504 郎志杰（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F3030112 2026/02/06 产业链示意图 上游 天然碱矿 （天然碱法） 原盐、石灰石 （氨碱法） 原盐、合成氨 （联碱法） 燃料：动力煤、 天然气 中游 轻碱 重碱 氯化铵 下游 日用玻璃 洗涤剂 食品行业 无机盐 平板玻璃 农用氮肥 房地产——约88% 汽车——约6% 光伏——约1% 其他 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 价格：截至2026/02/05，浮法玻璃现货市场报价1020元/吨，环比持平；玻璃主力合约收盘报1088元/吨，环比+1元/吨；基差-68元/吨，环 比上周-1元/吨。 成本利润：截至2026/02/05，以天然气为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周均利润为-167.97元/吨，环比-12.85元/吨；河南LNG市场低端价3950元/吨， 环比+50元/吨。以煤炭为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周均利润为-67.92元/吨， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Overseas liquidity: The nomination of Wash has triggered hawkish expectations, and the divergence in expectations for US monetary policy has intensified, suppressing the risk appetite of the global capital market and causing increased volatility in US stocks and precious metals [11]. - Domestic market: Liquidity is tightening seasonally approaching the Spring Festival, so short - term observation is recommended. In the long - term, the policy support attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the main idea is to buy on dips [11]. - Trading strategy: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term due to the medium - to - low valuation level and long - term discount of IM; hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new round of interest rate cut cycle has started and high - dividend assets are expected to benefit [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important news**: The US plans to launch a $12 billion mineral reserve program; the 2026 No. 1 Central Document promotes the combination of AI and agriculture; Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT - 5.3 Codex are released; the traditional Chinese medicine industry policy is implemented; the central bank conducts an 800 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on February 4, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan [11]. - **Economic and corporate earnings**: In December 2025, industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9%, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.13% month - on - month; the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3; M1 growth was 3.8%, M2 growth was 8.5%; social financing increment was 2.2075 trillion yuan; exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year; in the US, non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was 4.4% [11]. - **Interest rate and credit environment**: This week, the 10Y Treasury bond rate and credit bond rate both declined slightly, the credit spread widened slightly, and liquidity tightened approaching the year - end [11]. - **Trading strategy**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term; hold IF long positions for 6 months [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Stock index performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 1.27% to 4065.58, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.11% to 13906.73, etc. [16]. - **Futures contract performance**: All major futures contracts, such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, declined to varying degrees [17]. 3. Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic data**: In Q4 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.5%; in January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3; in December 2025, the consumption growth rate was 0.9%, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year; the investment growth rate was - 3.8% [35][38][41]. - **Corporate earnings**: In the Q3 2025 report, the year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 1.24%, and the year - on - year growth rate of net profit was 3.89% [44]. 4. Interest Rate and Credit Environment - **Interest rate**: The 10Y Treasury bond rate and 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate trends are presented [48]. - **Credit environment**: In December 2025, M1 growth was 3.8%, M2 growth was 8.2%, and the social financing increment was 2.2075 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 646.2 billion yuan [60]. 5. Capital Flow - **Inflow**: This month, about 110.4 billion shares of new equity - oriented funds were established, and the new margin trading balance in the two markets was about 139.9 billion yuan, with the latest balance reaching 2.664067 trillion yuan, a new high [67][68]. - **Outflow**: This month, major shareholder share sales remained at a relatively high level, and the number of IPO approvals was 10 [72]. 6. Valuation - **P/E ratio (TTM)**: The P/E ratio of the Shanghai 50 is 11.64, the CSI 300 is 14.08, the CSI 500 is 36.92, and the CSI 1000 is 49.18 [77]. - **P/B ratio (LF)**: The P/B ratio of the Shanghai 50 is 1.28, the CSI 300 is 1.48, the CSI 500 is 2.54, and the CSI 1000 is 2.63 [77].

01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 商品风偏下行， 关注现货市场博弈 碳酸锂月报 2026/02/06 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 曾宇轲（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 03 供给端 06 成本端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 ◆ 期现市场：2月6日，五矿钢联碳酸锂现货指数（MMLC）早盘报138064元，周跌13.22%，其中MMLC电池级碳酸锂均价为138400元。同日广期所 LC2605收盘价132920元，本周跌10.31%。 ◆ 供给：锂盐厂淡季安排检修，2月5日，SMM国内碳酸锂周度产量报20744吨，环比减3.8%。2026年1月国内碳酸锂产量为97900吨，环比减1.3%， 同比增56.7%。2月预计国内碳酸锂产量环比减少16.3%。2026年1月份智利出口到中国的碳酸锂为16950吨，环比增44.82%，同比减少11.35%； 出口至中国的硫酸锂为2.78万吨。 ◆ 需求：乘联会预计1月国内新能源汽车零售量为90万辆左右，同比增长1%。一季度为电池 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the rubber market, analyzing factors such as cost, supply, demand, and price trends [1] - It also provides an assessment of rubber products like RU and NR, and offers trading strategy recommendations [15] Group 2: Core Views - Rubber prices are expected to experience significant fluctuations in the short - term due to macro - economic factors, and then gradually return to the fundamentals of demand and supply [10][11] - The market logic involves bullish sentiment driven by China's winter storage expectations and policy - related positives, while bearish sentiment stems from weak demand and potential negative impacts of tariff policies [13] - The demand for rubber is currently flat, with tire factories facing inventory pressure, and supply expectations vary, with some predicting a small increase in production [13] Group 3: Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Reasons for rubber price fluctuations: factors include geopolitical tensions, changes in Fed personnel, and macro - capital sentiment. The price may be limited in its decline due to capital allocation to commodities and may have an upward potential due to state reserve purchase expectations [10][11] - Key points for rubber RU: after fluctuations, it will return to the fundamentals of weak demand and increasing inventory [12] - Trading strategy: consider a neutral approach in the short - term, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on NR and short on RU2609 for potential band trading [13][15] Group 4: Cost End - The cost of rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be 30 - 35 Thai baht for cup rubber. In Hainan, China, the cost of whole latex is around 13,500 yuan, and in Yunnan, it is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [48] Group 5: Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. The ratio of rubber to other commodities such as crude oil and copper shows certain trends [22][30] - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [27] Group 6: Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to various commodities such as copper, Brent crude oil, and others generally show normal trends without significant special values [37][40] Group 7: Demand End - The operating rate of tire factories' all - steel tires is 60.7% (- 1.74%), and there is inventory pressure on all - steel tires [13] - The demand from the mid - stream, such as truck and commercial vehicle sales, is gradually improving, and the export of truck tires is booming but expected to decline slightly later [56][59] Group 8: Supply End - The rubber production in December 2025 showed different trends in various regions. For example, Thailand's production decreased year - on - year, while Vietnam's increased [98] - The export of rubber also had different year - on - year and month - on - month changes in different regions in December 2025 [99] - The data on rubber imports are less available after 2021, reducing the analyzability of imports [63] Group 9: Industry - related Data and Forecasts - The capacity of butadiene and ethylene is expected to increase in the coming years. The butadiene capacity will follow the increase of refining projects, and the supply pressure of butadiene will decrease in 2026 compared to 2025 [117][120][123] - The price of butadiene rubber is mainly affected by the price of butadiene, and the balance of supply and demand depends on the progress of downstream supporting projects [123]