短期观望 甲醇月报 2026/02/06 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估 05 需求端 02 期现市场 行情走势 图1：甲醇指数 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 01 月度评估 1,800.0 2,000.0 2,200.0 2,400.0 2,600.0 2,800.0 3,000.0 2025-01-01 2025-01-08 2025-01-15 2025-01-22 2025-01-29 2025-02-05 2025-02-12 2025-02-19 2025-02-26 2025-03-05 2025-03-12 2025-03-19 2025-03-26 2025-04-02 2025-04-09 2025-04-16 2025-04-23 2025-04-30 2025-05-07 2025-05-14 2025-05-21 2025-05-28 2025-06- ...

徐绍祖（联系人） PP需求或将好于同期， 逢低做多PP2605-2609 聚烯烃月报 2026/02/06 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 02 期现市场 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐—1月总结 估值：美伊谈判反复，原油大幅波动，聚烯烃跟随震荡。 成本端：WTI原油上涨14.02%，Brent原油上涨14.43%，煤价无变动0.00%，甲醇下跌-3.36%，乙烯上涨10.15%，丙烯上涨11.04%， 丙烷上涨4.98%。油价大幅波动，供需双弱背景下成本端影响较大。 供应端：PE产能利用率87.03%，环比上涨4.42%，同比去年下降-1.81%，较5年同期平均下降-9.28%。PP产能利用率74.90%，环比上 涨0.03%，同比去年下降-5.82%，较5年同期平均下降-19.23%，聚烯烃2605合约无新增产 ...

陈逸 （联系人） 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023202 日熔量降至低位， 去库持续性仍不足 玻璃月报 从业资格号：F03137504 郎志杰（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F3030112 2026/02/06 产业链示意图 上游 天然碱矿 （天然碱法） 原盐、石灰石 （氨碱法） 原盐、合成氨 （联碱法） 燃料：动力煤、 天然气 中游 轻碱 重碱 氯化铵 下游 日用玻璃 洗涤剂 食品行业 无机盐 平板玻璃 农用氮肥 房地产——约88% 汽车——约6% 光伏——约1% 其他 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 价格：截至2026/02/05，浮法玻璃现货市场报价1020元/吨，环比持平；玻璃主力合约收盘报1088元/吨，环比+1元/吨；基差-68元/吨，环 比上周-1元/吨。 成本利润：截至2026/02/05，以天然气为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周均利润为-167.97元/吨，环比-12.85元/吨；河南LNG市场低端价3950元/吨， 环比+50元/吨。以煤炭为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周均利润为-67.92元/吨， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Overseas liquidity: The nomination of Wash has triggered hawkish expectations, and the divergence in expectations for US monetary policy has intensified, suppressing the risk appetite of the global capital market and causing increased volatility in US stocks and precious metals [11]. - Domestic market: Liquidity is tightening seasonally approaching the Spring Festival, so short - term observation is recommended. In the long - term, the policy support attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the main idea is to buy on dips [11]. - Trading strategy: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term due to the medium - to - low valuation level and long - term discount of IM; hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new round of interest rate cut cycle has started and high - dividend assets are expected to benefit [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important news**: The US plans to launch a $12 billion mineral reserve program; the 2026 No. 1 Central Document promotes the combination of AI and agriculture; Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT - 5.3 Codex are released; the traditional Chinese medicine industry policy is implemented; the central bank conducts an 800 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on February 4, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan [11]. - **Economic and corporate earnings**: In December 2025, industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9%, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.13% month - on - month; the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3; M1 growth was 3.8%, M2 growth was 8.5%; social financing increment was 2.2075 trillion yuan; exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year; in the US, non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was 4.4% [11]. - **Interest rate and credit environment**: This week, the 10Y Treasury bond rate and credit bond rate both declined slightly, the credit spread widened slightly, and liquidity tightened approaching the year - end [11]. - **Trading strategy**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term; hold IF long positions for 6 months [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Stock index performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 1.27% to 4065.58, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.11% to 13906.73, etc. [16]. - **Futures contract performance**: All major futures contracts, such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, declined to varying degrees [17]. 3. Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic data**: In Q4 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.5%; in January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3; in December 2025, the consumption growth rate was 0.9%, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year; the investment growth rate was - 3.8% [35][38][41]. - **Corporate earnings**: In the Q3 2025 report, the year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 1.24%, and the year - on - year growth rate of net profit was 3.89% [44]. 4. Interest Rate and Credit Environment - **Interest rate**: The 10Y Treasury bond rate and 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate trends are presented [48]. - **Credit environment**: In December 2025, M1 growth was 3.8%, M2 growth was 8.2%, and the social financing increment was 2.2075 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 646.2 billion yuan [60]. 5. Capital Flow - **Inflow**: This month, about 110.4 billion shares of new equity - oriented funds were established, and the new margin trading balance in the two markets was about 139.9 billion yuan, with the latest balance reaching 2.664067 trillion yuan, a new high [67][68]. - **Outflow**: This month, major shareholder share sales remained at a relatively high level, and the number of IPO approvals was 10 [72]. 6. Valuation - **P/E ratio (TTM)**: The P/E ratio of the Shanghai 50 is 11.64, the CSI 300 is 14.08, the CSI 500 is 36.92, and the CSI 1000 is 49.18 [77]. - **P/B ratio (LF)**: The P/B ratio of the Shanghai 50 is 1.28, the CSI 300 is 1.48, the CSI 500 is 2.54, and the CSI 1000 is 2.63 [77].

01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 商品风偏下行， 关注现货市场博弈 碳酸锂月报 2026/02/06 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 曾宇轲（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 03 供给端 06 成本端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 ◆ 期现市场：2月6日，五矿钢联碳酸锂现货指数（MMLC）早盘报138064元，周跌13.22%，其中MMLC电池级碳酸锂均价为138400元。同日广期所 LC2605收盘价132920元，本周跌10.31%。 ◆ 供给：锂盐厂淡季安排检修，2月5日，SMM国内碳酸锂周度产量报20744吨，环比减3.8%。2026年1月国内碳酸锂产量为97900吨，环比减1.3%， 同比增56.7%。2月预计国内碳酸锂产量环比减少16.3%。2026年1月份智利出口到中国的碳酸锂为16950吨，环比增44.82%，同比减少11.35%； 出口至中国的硫酸锂为2.78万吨。 ◆ 需求：乘联会预计1月国内新能源汽车零售量为90万辆左右，同比增长1%。一季度为电池 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the rubber market, analyzing factors such as cost, supply, demand, and price trends [1] - It also provides an assessment of rubber products like RU and NR, and offers trading strategy recommendations [15] Group 2: Core Views - Rubber prices are expected to experience significant fluctuations in the short - term due to macro - economic factors, and then gradually return to the fundamentals of demand and supply [10][11] - The market logic involves bullish sentiment driven by China's winter storage expectations and policy - related positives, while bearish sentiment stems from weak demand and potential negative impacts of tariff policies [13] - The demand for rubber is currently flat, with tire factories facing inventory pressure, and supply expectations vary, with some predicting a small increase in production [13] Group 3: Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Reasons for rubber price fluctuations: factors include geopolitical tensions, changes in Fed personnel, and macro - capital sentiment. The price may be limited in its decline due to capital allocation to commodities and may have an upward potential due to state reserve purchase expectations [10][11] - Key points for rubber RU: after fluctuations, it will return to the fundamentals of weak demand and increasing inventory [12] - Trading strategy: consider a neutral approach in the short - term, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on NR and short on RU2609 for potential band trading [13][15] Group 4: Cost End - The cost of rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be 30 - 35 Thai baht for cup rubber. In Hainan, China, the cost of whole latex is around 13,500 yuan, and in Yunnan, it is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [48] Group 5: Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. The ratio of rubber to other commodities such as crude oil and copper shows certain trends [22][30] - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [27] Group 6: Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to various commodities such as copper, Brent crude oil, and others generally show normal trends without significant special values [37][40] Group 7: Demand End - The operating rate of tire factories' all - steel tires is 60.7% (- 1.74%), and there is inventory pressure on all - steel tires [13] - The demand from the mid - stream, such as truck and commercial vehicle sales, is gradually improving, and the export of truck tires is booming but expected to decline slightly later [56][59] Group 8: Supply End - The rubber production in December 2025 showed different trends in various regions. For example, Thailand's production decreased year - on - year, while Vietnam's increased [98] - The export of rubber also had different year - on - year and month - on - month changes in different regions in December 2025 [99] - The data on rubber imports are less available after 2021, reducing the analyzability of imports [63] Group 9: Industry - related Data and Forecasts - The capacity of butadiene and ethylene is expected to increase in the coming years. The butadiene capacity will follow the increase of refining projects, and the supply pressure of butadiene will decrease in 2026 compared to 2025 [117][120][123] - The price of butadiene rubber is mainly affected by the price of butadiene, and the balance of supply and demand depends on the progress of downstream supporting projects [123]

铝月报 2026/02/06 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 情绪面加大市场波动，支撑较强 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止2026年1月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4499.6万吨；1月电解铝产量同比增长2.7%、环比增加0.5%。预计2月 运行产能保持相对稳定，部分新建电解铝项目逐渐爬产。2026年1月国内铝水比例环比下降4.4%至72.1%，2月铝水比例预计继续下降。1月海 外电解铝产量同比增长接近2%。 ◆ 库存&现货：据MYSTEEL数据，截至2月5日，铝锭库存录得85.3万吨，较1月初增加约15万吨。 保税区库存录得4.4万吨，较1月初减少约1.0万 吨。铝棒库存合计27.7万吨，较1月初增加10.2万吨。 LME铝库存录得49.3万吨，较1月初减少1.6万吨。国内华东铝锭现货贴水缩窄，LME市 场Cash/3M升贴水先扬后抑。 ◆ 进出口：1月沪铝现货进口亏损震荡缩窄。2025年12月中国原铝 ...

有色情绪退潮， 产业现状偏弱 铅月报 2026/02/06 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估 04 需求分析 02 原生供给 05 供需库存 03 再生供给 06 价格展望 01 月度评估 月度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：1月铅价表现显著弱于板块走势，1月5日至2月3日期间，铅价上探后大幅下跌，沪铅加权累计下跌4.00%。SMM1#铅锭均价 16400元/吨，再生精铅均价16425元/吨，精废价差-25元/吨，废电动车电池均价9925元/吨。 ◆ 国内结构：上期所铅锭期货库存录得3.38万吨，内盘原生基差-140元/吨，连续合约-连一合约价差-55元/吨。据钢联数据，2月5日全 国主要市场铅锭社会库存为4.59万吨，较2月2日增加0.69万吨。海外结构：LME铅锭库存录得23.29万吨，LME铅锭注销仓单录得1.58 万吨。外盘cash-3S合约基差-51.45美元/吨，3-15价差-142.1美元/吨。跨市结构：剔汇后盘面沪伦比价录得1.222，铅锭进口盈亏为 26 ...

铜月报 2026/02/06 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 短期宏观情绪压制，支撑较强 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度要点小结 03 供需分析 02 期现市场 04 宏观分析 01 月度要点小结 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应：海外铜矿供应紧张格局不变，边际紧张预期加剧，粗铜供应偏宽松。1月中国精炼铜产量维持高位，预计2月产量环比下滑、同比增长。 ◆ 需求：1月中国精炼铜表观消费预估小幅增长，2月下游开工将季节性走弱。海外制造业景气度回暖，需求预期改善。 ◆ 进出口：1月沪铜现货进口亏损先扩后缩，美铜与伦铜价差震荡，价差引起美国铜库存在COMEX与LME流动加大。 ◆ 库存：1月上期所、COMEX和LME库存均增加，保税区库存持稳，总库存增加，但结构性问题仍存。预估2月中国库存继续累库。 ◆ 小结：进入2026年2月，下游迎来季节性淡季，国内铜库存将继续累积，但铜价回调的背景下，预计累库量不会超季节性。海外制造业景气 度改善带动需求预期回暖。宏观层面，贵金属、比特币走弱和美股AI板块下跌仍对市场情绪形 ...

宏观支撑减弱，现实压 力逐步体现 镍月报 2026/02/06 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 05 硫酸镍 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：1月镍矿价格在菲律宾雨季扰动叠加LME镍价走强下明显上行。菲律宾方面，苏里高降雨致开采及驳船装运暂停，供应收紧支撑国内矿 价，中国港存进一步降至736万吨。印尼方面，湿法矿供需平稳、价格持稳；火法矿受强降雨叠加MOMS/RKAB核验与监管高压、矿方惜售，1.6% 品位镍矿到厂价涨至61.4美元/湿吨，后续基准价与升水预计仍偏强运行。 ◆ 镍铁：1月国内高镍生铁价格维持强势，月底SMM10-12%高镍生铁均价上涨至1054元/镍点（出厂含税），主要受期现价差拉大及上游挺价推动。 印尼部分铁厂转产高冰镍叠加贸易商套利锁货，导致市场流通货源偏紧。下游虽处淡季，但期货上涨改善不锈钢 ...