Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive last Friday, with the prices of finished steel products continuing to strengthen in a volatile manner. In the short term, market sentiment has cooled slightly; in the long term, the global liquidity easing is expected to drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry, indirectly boosting steel demand. However, if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices still face the risk of decline. The raw material segment remains relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. The latest overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to a high level, and the recent arrival volume has slightly declined. The daily average hot metal production has increased, and the steel mill profit rate has been decreasing for several weeks. The port inventory has slightly decreased, while the steel mill's imported ore inventory has significantly increased. In the short term, the hot metal production remains strong, and the iron ore price is supported before steel mills reduce production [5]. - The black sector may experience a short - term downward correction, especially after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the sufficient domestic fiscal policy space, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - term allocation, with the key time point possibly around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [10]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be strong in the short term under the influence of capital sentiment, and attention should be paid to the improvement of supply and demand and policy changes in the future. The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate, with large intraday price swings, and attention should be paid to position and risk control [14][16]. - The price of glass may form support at a low level as the "Golden September and Silver October" approach, and it is advisable to take a small long position at low prices. The price of soda ash remains in a volatile market, and a cautious attitude is recommended [19][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Market Information - The closing price of the rebar主力合约 was 3172 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.794%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 256,453 tons, a net increase of 6,931 tons. The position of the主力合约 was 1.97051 million lots, a net decrease of 29,174 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Shanghai, it was 3260 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil主力合约 was 3374 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.596%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 37,228 tons, a net decrease of 7,721 tons. The position of the主力合约 was 1.413153 million lots, a net increase of 829 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3380 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3420 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive last Friday, with the prices of finished steel products continuing to strengthen in a volatile manner. The Fed's monetary policy stance was more cautious than expected, and preventive interest rate cuts have begun. In the short term, market sentiment has cooled slightly; in the long term, global liquidity easing is expected to drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry, indirectly boosting steel demand. Last week, steel exports declined slightly, remaining in a weak and volatile state. Fundamentally, rebar production has declined, apparent demand has slightly increased, and inventory pressure has marginally eased; hot - rolled coil production has increased, apparent demand is neutral, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the peak - season demand is not strong. Steel mill profits are gradually narrowing, and if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices still face the risk of decline. The raw material segment remains relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - Last Friday, the main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 807.50 yuan/ton, up 0.94% (+7.50), with a position change of +40,992 lots to 574,500 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 889,200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.46 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.00% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to a high level in the same period. Australia's shipments have increased month - on - month, and Brazil's shipments have rebounded significantly, returning above the same - period level in previous years. Shipments from non - mainstream countries have also increased. The recent arrival volume has slightly declined. In terms of demand, the latest daily average hot metal production according to the Steel Union was 2.4102 million tons, up 0.47 million tons. There were both blast furnace overhauls and restarts. The profitability of steel mills has been declining for several weeks. In terms of inventory, port inventory has slightly decreased, while the steel mill's imported ore inventory has significantly increased. Before the National Day, part of the inventory may continue to be transferred to the mills. The apparent demand for the five major steel products has continued to increase, and the inventory decline rate has slowed. The apparent demand for rebar has increased, and inventory has slightly decreased. Currently, the pressure from downstream on the raw material segment remains to be observed. Fundamentally, the hot metal production remains strong in the short term, and the iron ore price is supported before steel mills reduce production. After the China - US leaders' phone call, market sentiment has been relatively positive, which also has a positive impact on the iron ore price. Overall, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand and the inventory reduction speed [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On September 19, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) remained volatile, closing down 0.10% at 5964 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, with a basis of 46 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF511) closed down 0.35% at 5736 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 64 yuan/ton. From September 15 - 19, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 132 yuan/ton or +2.27%. In the daily chart, the price reached around 6000 yuan/ton and then retreated, continuing to fluctuate upwards along the hourly upward trend but remaining within the volatile range. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 6000 yuan/ton and the right - hand downward trend line. The ferrosilicon futures price also fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 150 yuan/ton or +2.69%. In the daily chart, it also fluctuated upwards along the hourly upward trend but remained within the volatile range, and attention should be paid to the resistance around 5800 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the dot - plot shows that there may be two more interest rate cuts this year, indicating that the US has officially entered an interest rate cut cycle. Although the interest rate cut was as expected, Powell's hawkish stance led to a significant decline in non - ferrous metal prices, and the Wenhua Commodity Index returned to a volatile state, while the black sector continued to strengthen. On the one hand, overseas interest rate cuts have created room for domestic policies, strengthening market expectations of future economic stimulus; on the other hand, the "anti - involution" sentiment has resurfaced, driving positive performance in the raw material segments of coking coal and ferroalloys. However, as the peak season approaches, the actual demand is still relatively weak, especially in the building materials sector, where demand has not shown peak - season characteristics. Steel mills are still maintaining high - intensity production driven by profits, and the hot metal production remains above 2.4 million tons. High supply and relatively weak demand have led to a reverse - seasonal accumulation of steel inventory, putting pressure on prices in reality. In the short term, especially after the National Day holiday, the black sector may experience a downward correction. However, considering the subsequent overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the sufficient domestic fiscal policy space, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - term allocation, with the key time point possibly around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October. For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are still not ideal due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. However, the manganese ore inventory at ports has been at a low level recently, and the manganese ore price has been relatively strong. If the black sector strengthens in the future, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore segment, which may drive the manganese silicon market. Otherwise, manganese silicon is likely to follow the black - sector market. For ferrosilicon, there are no obvious contradictions in its supply - demand fundamentals, and it is also likely to follow the black - sector market, with relatively low trading cost - effectiveness [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Market Information: Last Friday, the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) closed at 9305 yuan/ton, up 4.49% (+400). The weighted position changed by +37,604 lots to 553,772 lots. In the spot market, the price of unoxygenated 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of - 205 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 505 yuan/ton [12]. - Strategy Viewpoints: Last Friday, the price of industrial silicon suddenly rose rapidly at the end of the session. In the short term, the price has shown a pulsed increase and is relatively unstable, so risk control is necessary. Fundamentally, there have been no significant changes in the supply and demand of industrial silicon. Production has slowed down after several weeks of growth but remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year. Downstream, the current operating rate of polysilicon is relatively high, and it is uncertain whether high - operating - rate enterprises will start to reduce production. In the short term, it can still support the demand for industrial silicon. The production of organic silicon DMC continues to be at a high level. The visible inventory of industrial silicon is at a high level, and the marginal reduction is limited. Compared with downstream polysilicon, the relative valuation of industrial silicon is low, and the polysilicon futures price has remained at a relatively high level for a long time, providing upward room for the industrial silicon price. At the policy level, the "anti - involution" concept leaves room for future price improvement. In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is expected to be strong under the influence of capital sentiment, and attention should be paid to the improvement of supply and demand and policy changes in the future [13][14]. Polysilicon - Market Information: Last Friday, the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) closed at 52,700 yuan/ton, down 0.95% (-505). The weighted position changed by - 10,472 lots to 273,121 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.15 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.65 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton [15]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The polysilicon futures price continues to be influenced by policy narratives. In the short term, the market focus remains on capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. Fundamentally, part of the previous inventory has been transferred downstream, and the inventory reduction space for the entire industry is limited, depending on the maintenance situation of high - operating - rate enterprises. In terms of price, the basis has been continuously shrinking, the spot price has continued to rise, and the price - passing in the middle and front - end of the downstream is relatively smooth, but there is still a stalemate in the component segment, indicating that the actual terminal demand has not significantly improved. Currently, the establishment time of the platform company is uncertain, and the announcements of listed silicon enterprises also show that the expectations cannot be confirmed or falsified. Before the final implementation, the futures price may experience a phased decline due to the lack of actual progress. In the short term, the polysilicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate, with large intraday price swings, and attention should be paid to position and risk control, as well as the authenticity of sudden news [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Information: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1208 yuan/ton, down 2.11% (-26). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1150 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1140 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 60.908 million cases, down 675,000 cases (-1.10%). In terms of position, the top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 16,632 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 608 lots [18]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The terminal demand is still weak, and downstream buyers are cautious and waiting. In terms of supply, there have been limited adjustments to production lines, and the market supply is relatively abundant. Enterprises are mainly stabilizing prices and making flexible adjustments in actual transactions. The inventory performance varies by region, with good inventory reduction in East, Central, South, and Northwest China, while North and Southwest China still face inventory accumulation pressure. Fundamentally, there is no single - sided driving factor in the market, and the price fluctuation range is limited. In terms of the futures market, the trading volume has decreased last week, and the capital entry desire is not strong, but the price center has been rising. As the "Golden September and Silver October" approach, the futures price may form support at a low level, and it is advisable to take a small long position at low prices [19]. Soda Ash - Market Information: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1306 yuan/ton, down 2.10% (-28). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1216 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7556 million tons, down 41,900 tons (-1.10%), including a decrease of 28,400 tons in heavy soda ash inventory and 13,500 tons in light soda ash inventory. In terms of position, the top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 8207 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 16,826 lots [20]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The overall supply of soda ash is stable. Some plants such as Anhui Hongsifang and Hubei Xindu have resumed production, but short - term local shutdowns for maintenance have led to a slight contraction in the industry's operating load, and the overall supply shows a narrow - range fluctuation. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and some enterprises' willingness to stock up before the festival is gradually increasing, with appropriate replenishment at low prices, leading to a downward trend in enterprise inventory. Some manufacturers' orders are almost full, and their attitude of stabilizing prices has strengthened. However, the current industry supply is still at a relatively high level, and the absolute inventory level is still high, so the upward driving force in the fundamentals is still limited. In the futures market, the trading volume was small last week, and no effective breakthrough was achieved. The price pattern is relatively loose, and it remains in a volatile market, so a cautious attitude is recommended [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products options market shows diverse trends, with oilseeds and oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, and grains each having their own market conditions. Strategies mainly focus on constructing option combination strategies based on sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview of Underlying Futures - Different agricultural product options have various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) is 3,901, down 5 with a decline of 0.13%, and its trading volume is 10.47 million lots, down 0.52 million lots [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open - interest PCR of different options are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.39, down 0.18, and the open - interest PCR is 0.43, with no change [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different option underlyings are determined. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4000, and the support level is 3900 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different options is calculated, including at - the - money implied volatility and weighted implied volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 10.17%, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.00%, up 0.81% [6] 3.5 Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The fundamental situation of soybeans shows the arrival volume of domestic oil mills. The market of soybean No.1 is in a weak shock. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The trading volume of soybean meal has decreased. The market of soybean meal is in a weak shock with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy for call options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The total inventory of domestic oils is higher than last year. The market of palm oil is in a high - level shock. Option strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Peanuts**: The import volume of peanuts has decreased, and the market is in a weak shock. Option strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy for call options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs**: The pig market is in a supply - exceeding - demand situation, and the price is in a weak shock. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [11] - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens is expected to increase. The egg market is in a weak bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy for call options and a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [12] - **Apples**: The cold - storage inventory of apples has decreased. The apple market is in a warming - up upward trend. Option strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy [12] - **Jujubes**: The physical inventory of jujubes has decreased. The jujube market is in a large - amplitude shock. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased strangle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The sugar production in Brazil has increased, and the import volume in China has also increased. The sugar market is in a weak bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - **Cotton**: The开机 rate of spinning and weaving factories and the commercial inventory of cotton have changed. The cotton market is in a short - term weak trend. Option strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [14] 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn and Starch**: The auction volume and成交 rate of corn have certain characteristics, and the corn market is in a weak shock. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Composite Index, large-cap blue-chip stocks, small and medium-cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks showed a market trend of gradually declining on the long side, then rebounding and rising, and finally oscillating at a high level [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options gradually rose to fluctuate at a relatively high average level [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a long-biased buyer strategy and a bull spread combination strategy for call options; for index options, it is suitable to construct a long-biased seller strategy, a bull spread combination strategy for call options, and an arbitrage strategy of combining long synthetic futures and short futures [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Important Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,820.09, down 11.57 points or 0.30%, with a trading volume of 101.63 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.96 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,070.86, down 4.80 points or 0.04%, with a trading volume of 130.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.17 billion yuan [4]. - The SSE 50 Index closed at 2,909.74, down 3.08 points or 0.11%, with a trading volume of 16.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.25 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,501.92, up 3.81 points or 0.08%, with a trading volume of 60.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.61 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7,170.35, down 29.53 points or 0.41%, with a trading volume of 45.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.36 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,438.19, down 38.21 points or 0.51%, with a trading volume of 48.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.08 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Option Underlying ETF Market Overview - The SSE 50 ETF closed at 3.045, down 0.003 or 0.10%, with a trading volume of 6.5567 million shares, an increase of 6.4262 million shares, and a trading value of 1.999 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.00 billion yuan [5]. - The SSE 300 ETF closed at 4.604, up 0.010 or 0.22%, with a trading volume of 7.3161 million shares, an increase of 7.1974 million shares, and a trading value of 3.370 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.119 billion yuan [5]. - The SSE 500 ETF closed at 7.261, down 0.031 or 0.43%, with a trading volume of 2.8555 million shares, an increase of 2.8217 million shares, and a trading value of 2.080 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.02 billion yuan [5]. - The Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.431, down 0.019 or 1.31%, with a trading volume of 43.9223 million shares, an increase of 43.3052 million shares, and a trading value of 6.360 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.688 billion yuan [5]. - The E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.398, down 0.017 or 1.20%, with a trading volume of 13.5837 million shares, an increase of 13.4241 million shares, and a trading value of 1.922 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.57 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 300 ETF closed at 4.747, up 0.015 or 0.32%, with a trading volume of 1.5969 million shares, an increase of 1.5784 million shares, and a trading value of 758 million yuan, a decrease of 124 million yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 500 ETF closed at 2.903, down 0.010 or 0.34%, with a trading volume of 962,600 shares, an increase of 945,200 shares, and a trading value of 280 million yuan, a decrease of 232 million yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 100 ETF closed at 3.475, up 0.013 or 0.38%, with a trading volume of 806,900 shares, an increase of 795,400 shares, and a trading value of 280 million yuan, a decrease of 120 million yuan [5]. - The ChiNext ETF closed at 3.062, down 0.005 or 0.16%, with a trading volume of 17.1223 million shares, an increase of 16.8504 million shares, and a trading value of 5.267 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.142 billion yuan [5]. 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - For the SSE 50 ETF option, the trading volume PCR was 1.14, an increase of 0.35, and the position PCR was 0.77, an increase of 0.06 [6]. - For the SSE 300 ETF option, the trading volume PCR was 1.54, an increase of 0.43, and the position PCR was 1.15, an increase of 0.09 [6]. - For the SSE 500 ETF option, the trading volume PCR was 1.40, an increase of 0.37, and the position PCR was 1.33, an increase of 0.03 [6]. - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the trading volume PCR was 1.19, an increase of 0.15, and the position PCR was 1.11, an increase of 0.04 [6]. - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the trading volume PCR was 0.84, unchanged, and the position PCR was 0.94, an increase of 0.02 [6]. - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the trading volume PCR was 0.73, an increase of 0.01, and the position PCR was 1.00, an increase of 0.08 [6]. - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the trading volume PCR was 1.44, an increase of 0.49, and the position PCR was 0.90, an increase of 0.03 [6]. - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the trading volume PCR was 4.11, an increase of 2.84, and the position PCR was 1.43, an increase of 0.16 [6]. - For the ChiNext ETF option, the trading volume PCR was 0.89, an increase of 0.03, and the position PCR was 1.34, an increase of 0.01 [6]. - For the SSE 50 index option, the trading volume PCR was 0.68, an increase of 0.12, and the position PCR was 0.60, unchanged [6]. - For the CSI 300 index option, the trading volume PCR was 0.65, a decrease of 0.02, and the position PCR was 0.74, a decrease of 0.07 [6]. - For the CSI 1000 index option, the trading volume PCR was 0.86, an increase of 0.01, and the position PCR was 0.94, a decrease of 0.17 [6]. 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - For the SSE 50 ETF option, the pressure point was 3.10, and the support point was 3.10 [8]. - For the SSE 300 ETF option, the pressure point was 4.60, and the support point was 4.60 [8]. - For the SSE 500 ETF option, the pressure point was 7.50, and the support point was 7.00 [8]. - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the pressure point was 1.65, and the support point was 1.40 [8]. - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the pressure point was 1.60, and the support point was 1.35 [8]. - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the pressure point was 4.80, and the support point was 4.70 [8]. - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the pressure point was 3.00, and the support point was 2.85 [8]. - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the pressure point was 3.60, and the support point was 3.30 [8]. - For the ChiNext ETF option, the pressure point was 3.10, and the support point was 3.00 [8]. - For the SSE 50 index option, the pressure point was 3,000, and the support point was 2,850 [8]. - For the CSI 300 index option, the pressure point was 4,600, and the support point was 4,500 [8]. - For the CSI 1000 index option, the pressure point was 7,500, and the support point was 7,400 [8]. 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - For the SSE 50 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 18.75%, the weighted implied volatility was 21.42%, a decrease of 1.22%, the annual average was 16.00%, the call implied volatility was 21.97%, the put implied volatility was 20.59%, the HISV20 was 18.67%, and the implied - historical volatility difference was 2.75% [11]. - For the SSE 300 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 19.26%, the weighted implied volatility was 20.29%, a decrease of 0.40%, the annual average was 16.44%, the call implied volatility was 20.46%, the put implied volatility was 20.09%, the HISV20 was 18.47%, and the implied - historical volatility difference was 1.82% [11]. - For the SSE 500 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 25.14%, the weighted implied volatility was 26.33%, an increase of 0.41%, the annual average was 20.14%, the call implied volatility was 25.04%, the put implied volatility was 27.80%, the HISV20 was 22.87%, and the implied - historical volatility difference was 3.46% [11]. - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 48.42%, the weighted implied volatility was 49.47%, a decrease of 2.80%, the annual average was 31.18%, the call implied volatility was 50.13%, the put implied volatility was 48.52%, the HISV20 was 43.14%, and the implied - historical volatility difference was 6.33% [11]. - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 49.16%, the weighted implied volatility was 51.04%, a decrease of 3.10%, the annual average was 32.00%, the call implied volatility was 51.29%, the put implied volatility was 50.63%, the HISV20 was 44.37%, and the implied - historical volatility difference was 6.67% [11]. - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 20.38%, the weighted implied volatility was 22.12%, a decrease of 0.17%, the annual average was 18.05%, the call implied volatility was 21.87%, the put implied volatility was 22.49%, the HISV20 was 20.26%, and the implied - historical volatility difference was 1.87% [11]. - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 25.24%, the weighted implied volatility was 42.76%, an increase of 4.47%, the annual average was 21.44%, the call implied volatility was 25.87%, the put implied volatility was 56.76%, the HISV20 was 24.63%, and the implied - historical volatility difference was 18.13% [11]. - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 26.07%, the weighted implied volatility was 84.14%, an increase of 41.91%, the annual average was 23.50%, the call implied volatility was 29.22%, the put implied volatility was 98.43%, the HISV20 was 27.00%, and the implied - historical volatility difference was 57.13% [11]. - For the ChiNext ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 40.77%, the weighted implied volatility was 41.65%, a decrease of 2.01%, the annual average was 27.32%, the call implied volatility was 41.15%, the put implied volatility was 42.23%, the HISV20 was 36.83%, and the implied - historical volatility difference was 4.82% [11]. - For the SSE 50 index option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 26.32%, the weighted implied volatility was 22.50%, a decrease of 2.44%, the annual average was 17.38%, the call implied volatility was 23.08%, the put implied volatility was 21.56%, the HISV20 was 19.24%, and the implied - historical volatility difference was 3.26% [11]. - For the CSI 300 index option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 18.27%, the weighted implied volatility was 22.42%, a decrease of 0.66%, the annual average was 17.10%, the call implied volatility was 22.16%, the put implied volatility was 22.84%, the HISV20 was 18.53%, and the implied - historical volatility difference was 3.90% [11]. - For the CSI 1000 index option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 32.33%, the weighted implied volatility was 29.27%, a decrease of 0.66%, the annual average was 23.09%, the call implied volatility was 28.64%, the put implied volatility was 29.99%, the HISV20 was 24.07%, and the implied - historical volatility difference was 5.20% [11]. 3.6 Strategy and Recommendations - **Financial Stocks Sector (SSE 50 ETF, SSE 50)**: The SSE 50 ETF has shown a bullish trend with support below. The implied volatility of the SSE 50 ETF option fluctuates above the average. The position PCR indicates a sideways market. The pressure and support points are both 3.10. For strategies, there is no directional strategy; for volatility, construct a short - biased long combination strategy; for the spot, hold the SSE 50 ETF and sell call options [14]. - **Large - Cap Blue - Chip Stocks Sector (SSE 300 ETF, Shenzhen 300 ETF, CSI 300)**: The SSE 300 ETF has shown a bullish trend with large fluctuations at high levels. The implied volatility of the SSE 300 ETF option fluctuates above the average. The position PCR indicates a sideways - bullish market. The pressure and support points are both 4.60. For strategies, construct a

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains the view of overweighting crude oil as geopolitical premiums have dissipated, OPEC's production increase is minimal, and the current oil price is relatively undervalued with good fundamentals. However, it's not advisable to chase the price at present, and if geopolitical premiums reappear, the oil price will have more upside potential [3]. - For methanol, the fundamentals are mixed with high inventory suppressing the price. It's recommended to wait and see as the price is greatly affected by overall commodity sentiment [6]. - Regarding urea, although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of driving factors in reality. It's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [9]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it's recommended to wait and see [14]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [17]. - For styrene, the long - term BZN is expected to recover, and it's recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [20]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [23]. - For polypropylene, there is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [26]. - For PX, the current load is high, and there is a lack of driving factors with PXN under pressure. It's recommended to wait and see [30]. - For PTA, the supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is affected by the terminal. It's recommended to wait and see [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to short on rallies with caution [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 9.30 yuan/barrel, a 1.87% decline, at 487.00 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined, with high - sulfur fuel oil down 11.00 yuan/ton (0.39%) to 2796.00 yuan/ton and low - sulfur fuel oil down 36.00 yuan/ton (1.05%) to 3392.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed that overall refined oil inventories decreased by 1.94 million barrels to 45.39 million barrels, a 4.10% decline [1][2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil, but it's not advisable to chase the price at present. If geopolitical premiums reappear, the oil price will have more upside potential [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang rose 6 yuan/ton, while that in Inner Mongolia fell 5 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped 18 yuan/ton to 2346 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 108. The 1 - 5 spread rose 16 to - 20 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side start - up rate declined, and the demand - side improved marginally. The inventory in ports continued to rise, but the inventory pressure in the inland area was relatively small. It's recommended to wait and see as the fundamentals are mixed [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, while that in Henan fell 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped 9 yuan/ton to 1661 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31. The 1 - 5 spread fell 6 to - 61 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure increased, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased again. Although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of driving factors. It's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices declined with a large drop after breaking through technical support. The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is not significant, reducing supply - side bullish factors. The long - short views on natural rubber are divided. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week but down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, down 2.2 million tons (1.8%) from the previous period [11][12][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it's recommended to wait and see [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 27 yuan to 4950 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4780 (+10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 170 (-27) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 77%, down 3% from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 49.2%, up 1.7% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 30.6 million tons (-0.4), and social inventory was 95.4 million tons (+1.9) [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [17]. Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene price was 5903 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price was 7100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The active contract closing price was 6992 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The basis was 108 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.4%, down 1.60%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.75 million tons to 15.90 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 45.44%, up 0.46% [18][19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term BZN is expected to recover, and it's recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 7169 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7190 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The basis was 21 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.28%, up 0.71%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 million tons to 49.03 million tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.30 million tons to 6.06 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42.92%, up 0.75% [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6914 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6875 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 39 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate remained unchanged at 75.43%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.45 million tons to 55.06 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.43 million tons to 18.83 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.29 million tons to 6.18 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.45%, up 0.59% [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell 90 yuan to 6594 yuan. PX CFR fell 11 dollars to 816 dollars. The basis was 96 yuan (+4), and the 11 - 1 spread was 0 yuan (-18). The PX load in China was 86.3%, down 1.5% from the previous period, and the Asian load was 78.2%, down 0.8% from the previous period. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 0.6 million tons year - on - year [28][29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and there is a lack of driving factors with PXN under pressure. It's recommended to wait and see [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 62 yuan to 4604 yuan. The East China spot price fell 75 yuan to 4555 yuan. The basis was - 82 yuan (-5), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan (-6). The PTA load was 75.9%, down 0.9% from the previous period [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is affected by the terminal. It's recommended to wait and see [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 11 yuan to 4257 yuan. The East China spot price fell 11 yuan to 4351 yuan. The basis was 92 yuan (+9), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan (+2). The supply - side operating rate was 73.8%, down 1.1% from the previous period. The downstream load was 91.4%, down 0.2% from the previous period. The port inventory increased by 0.6 million tons to 46.5 million tons [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to short on rallies with caution [35].

文字早评 2025/09/22 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、9 月 19 日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话，就当前中美关系和共同关心的问题坦诚深 入交换意见，就下阶段中美关系稳定发展作出战略指引。 2、央行、金融监管总局、证监会、外汇局负责人将于 9 月 22 日下午 3 点召开新闻发布会，介绍"十四 五"时期金融业发展成就; 3、据报道，OpenAI 算力告急，计划五年内斥资 1000 亿美元租赁备用服务器； 4、苹果已通知两家供应商，将 iPhone 17 的日产量至少提升 30%。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.18%/-0.33%/-0.83%/-1.37%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.16%/-0.91%/-2.60%/-4.86%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.13%/-1.27%/-3.33%/-6.17%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.30%/0.12%/0.13%/0.19%。 【策略观点】 经过前期持续上涨后，AI 等高位热点板块近期出现分歧，资金高低切换，快速轮动，市场风险偏好有所 降低。叠加市场成交量的萎缩，短期指数面临 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the new Fed governor Milan's dovish monetary - policy statement, the prices of precious metals, especially silver, were strongly affected by the expectation of loose monetary policy. The report suggests paying attention to the possibility of Milan becoming the new Fed chairman and recommends a strategy of buying on dips for precious metals. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 823 - 850 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [2][3][4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Shanghai gold rose 1.02% to 838.26 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.68% to 10204.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.53% to 3725.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 1.32% to 43.52 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.14%, and the US dollar index was 97.69 [2] - Milan, a new Fed governor, expressed a dovish stance, supporting a 150 - basis - point interest - rate cut this year, and believed that the Fed's long - term tightening would pose risks to the employment market [2] 3.2 Market Outlook - Milan's speech on Friday had a significant impact on the market's expectations of the Fed's monetary policy, with an influence comparable to Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. His speech framework and dovish tendency deviated from the characteristics of existing Fed members. He also expressed his willingness to stay at the Fed under Trump's instruction [3] 3.3 Strategy Viewpoint - Pay attention to the possibility of Milan becoming the new Fed chairman. After his statement, the prices of domestic and foreign silver showed strength due to the expectation of loose monetary policy, and the price of the main contract of Shanghai silver reached a new high. It is recommended to buy on dips for precious metals, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 823 - 850 yuan/gram and for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [4] 3.4 Key Data of Gold and Silver - For gold, on September 19, 2025, the closing price of the active contract on COMEX was 3719.40 dollars/ounce (up 1.12% from the previous day), the trading volume was 181,300 lots (down 17.04%), the position was 516,200 lots (up 1.29%), and the inventory was 1227 tons (up 0.47%). The closing price of LBMA gold was 3663.15 dollars/ounce (up 0.53%). The closing price of the active contract on SHFE was 830.56 yuan/gram (up 0.78%), the trading volume was 375,100 lots (down 22.77%), and the position was 448,900 lots (up 1.17%) [8] - For silver, on September 19, 2025, the closing price of the active contract on COMEX was 43.37 dollars/ounce (up 3.00%), the position was 163,000 lots (up 3.99%), and the inventory was 16300 tons (down 0.01%). The closing price of the active contract on SHFE was 9971.00 yuan/kilogram (up 1.38%), the trading volume was 1,023,900 lots (down 21.56%), and the position was 867,300 lots (up 4.17%) [8] 3.5 Price and Volume Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between the price of COMEX gold and the US dollar index, real interest rate, trading volume, position, etc., as well as the price and volume relationship of Shanghai gold, London gold, and the near - far month structure of COMEX gold and Shanghai gold [10][11][13][14][18][19][24][25] - There are also charts showing the price and volume relationship of COMEX silver and Shanghai silver, the near - far month structure, and the relationship between the management fund's net long position and price [31][32][33][34][42][43][44] 3.6 ETF Holdings - The holding of SPDR gold ETF was 994.56 tons (up 1.94% from the previous day), and the holding of SLV silver ETF was 15205.14 tons (unchanged) [5] 3.7 Internal - External Price Difference Statistics - On September 19, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference of gold was - 16.12 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was - 44.24 dollars/ounce. The SHFE - COMEX price difference of silver was 0.42 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 0.37 dollars/ounce [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PX, last week, PXN oscillated downward. The main reasons were the postponement of PX maintenance plans, numerous unexpected maintenance of downstream PTA under low processing fees, and the delay of new device commissioning. The overall load was low, making it difficult for PX to reduce inventory. With weak terminal performance, PXN lacked the momentum to expand. Currently, PX load remains high, while downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. The expected delay of new PTA device commissioning and PX maintenance is expected to continue the PX inventory accumulation cycle. The valuation is currently at a moderately low level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [11]. - Regarding PTA, last week, PXN continued to be weak, PTA processing fees rebounded, and the overall price slightly decreased. The valuation was slightly repaired, but the upward space was relatively limited. On one hand, the terminal performance continued to be weaker than expected. On the other hand, even though PTA continued to reduce inventory through maintenance, the long - term outlook was still weak under the commissioning pressure. In the future, the unexpected maintenance volume on the supply side remains high, and the inventory reduction pattern will continue. However, due to the weak long - term pattern, the processing fee space is limited. On the demand side, the inventory and profit pressure of polyester and chemical fiber are low, and the load is expected to remain high. But the weak terminal performance exerts pressure on raw materials. In terms of valuation, PXN is continuously affected by the weak terminal performance and the continuous unexpected maintenance of PTA under low processing fees. The upward valuation needs to be driven by the improvement of the terminal or the maintenance of raw materials. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - Concerning MEG, the industrial fundamentals show that the load of domestic and overseas devices is at a high level, and the domestic supply is high. But in the short term, due to the low port arrival volume, the port inventory is expected to be low. In the medium term, as imports arrive in a concentrated manner and the domestic load is expected to remain high, coupled with the gradual commissioning of new devices, the inventory will increase in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is relatively high year - on - year. It is recommended to short - allocate on rallies under the weak outlook, but beware of the risk that the weak expectation may not be realized [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX**: The price decreased last week. The 11 - contract dropped by 118 yuan to 6594 yuan, and the spot CFR China price fell by 16 dollars to 816 dollars. The supply load decreased slightly, with the Chinese load at 86.3% (down 1.5% month - on - month) and the Asian load at 78.2% (down 0.8% month - on - month). The demand side saw a PTA load of 75.9% (down 0.9% month - on - month). Inventory is expected to accumulate. The PXN decreased to 227 dollars, and the naphtha crack spread fell to 108 dollars. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **PTA**: The price slightly declined. The 01 - contract dropped by 44 yuan to 4604 yuan. The supply load was 75.9% (down 0.9% month - on - month). The demand side had a polyester load of 91.4% (down 0.2% month - on - month). Inventory slightly increased, and the processing fee rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **MEG**: The price dropped. The 01 - contract fell by 15 yuan to 4257 yuan. The supply load was 73.8% (down 1.1% month - on - month). The demand side had a polyester load of 91.4% (down 0.2% month - on - month). Port inventory is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term and increase in the medium term. It is recommended to short - allocate on rallies [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **PX**: The basis oscillated, and the spread weakened. The position and trading volume increased [32][35]. - **PTA**: The basis declined, and the spread weakened. The position and trading volume were at a low level [43][46]. - **MEG**: The basis decreased, and the spread weakened. The position and trading volume were at a low level [54][62]. - **Overseas Commodity Prices**: Data on overseas prices of PX, MEG, and PTA FOB China were presented [71]. 3.3. p - Xylene Fundamentals - **Capacity and Production**: New capacity is expected to be added in 2025. The Chinese and Asian operating rates showed certain trends [76][78]. - **Import**: The import volume in July remained stable [82]. - **Inventory**: The inventory continued to decline in July [93]. - **Cost and Profit**: PXN weakened, the short - process spread was relatively strong, and the naphtha crack spread oscillated upward [97]. - **Aromatic Blending Oil**: The gasoline performance was weak, and there were various indicators and trends in aromatic blending oil [104]. 3.4. PTA Fundamentals - **Capacity and Production**: New capacity has been added in 2024 and 2025. The load showed certain fluctuations [137][140]. - **Export**: The export volume rebounded in July [142]. - **Inventory**: The inventory remained at a low level [144]. - **Profit and Valuation**: The processing fee was slightly repaired [147]. 3.5. Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals - **Capacity and Production**: New capacity is expected to be added in 2024 and 2025. The operating rate was relatively high, and the load of syngas - based devices was at a historical high [151][154]. - **Import**: The import volume slightly declined in July, and there was no import from the US [156]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory slightly increased this week [157]. - **Cost**: Coal prices rebounded, and ethylene prices slightly increased [167]. - **Profit**: The profit of naphtha - based MEG was relatively high [170]. 3.6. Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester**: New capacity of polyester filament was put into production. The basis of staple fiber and bottle chips oscillated. The operating rate slightly decreased. The inventory pressure of filament was moderate. The profit of filament was neutral, and the profit of bottle chips and staple fiber remained stable [184][187][190]. - **Terminal**: The operating rate remained stable. Orders remained stable, inventory decreased, and raw material stocking decreased. The domestic demand growth rate of textile and clothing recovered, while exports were weak. The US clothing wholesale inventory was lower than the pre - pandemic high, and the inventory increased marginally [211][219][223].

Report on Glass 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market sentiment showed a trend of first declining and then rising during the week. Driven by the strengthening of futures, local trading improved slightly. However, the overall terminal demand remained weak, with downstream procurement being cautious and a strong wait - and - see sentiment. On the supply side, there were limited adjustments to production lines, and the market supply was relatively abundant. Enterprises mostly maintained stable prices for shipments, with actual transactions flexibly adjusted. Regional inventory performance was significantly differentiated, with better destocking effects in East, Central, South, and Northwest China, while North and Southwest China still faced certain inventory accumulation pressure. Fundamentally, the market lacked unilateral driving factors, and the price fluctuation range was limited. From a trading perspective, the trading volume and open interest decreased this week, and the willingness of funds to enter the market was not strong, but the price center continued to rise. As the "Golden September and Silver October" period approaches, the trading volume is expected to form support at low levels, and it is advisable to try long positions at low levels with a light position [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of September 20, 2025, the spot market quotation of float glass was 1,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,208 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton from the previous week; the basis was - 58 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous week. The 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 125 yuan/ton (- 25), the 05 - 09 spread was - 60 yuan/ton (- 357), the 09 - 01 spread was 185 yuan/ton (+ 382), and the open interest reached 1.9181 million lots [13]. - **Cost - profit**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 164.84 yuan/ton, up 9.29 yuan/ton from the previous week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3,900 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was 94.03 yuan/ton, down 6.37 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 41.37 yuan/ton, up 11.43 yuan/ton from the previous week [13]. - **Supply**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112,122.5 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with 225 operating production lines, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.01% [13]. - **Demand**: As of September 20, 2025, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.4 days, up 0.85 days from the previous week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 47.10%, down 1.00% from the previous week. According to WIND data, from January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%; in August alone, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98%. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in August, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.8154 million and 2.8566 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.96% and 16.44% respectively; from January to August, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 21.051 million and 21.128 million respectively [13]. - **Inventory**: As of September 20, 2025, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 60.908 million heavy boxes, down 675,000 heavy boxes from the previous week; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 3.0448 million heavy boxes, up 388,800 heavy boxes from the previous week [13]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Glass Basis**: As of September 20, 2025, the spot market quotation of float glass was 1,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,208 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton from the previous week; the basis was - 58 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous week [19]. - **Glass Inter - monthly Spread**: As of September 20, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 125 yuan/ton (- 25), the 05 - 09 spread was - 60 yuan/ton (- 357), the 09 - 01 spread was 185 yuan/ton (+ 382), and the open interest reached 1.9181 million lots [22]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Float Glass Profit and Cost**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 164.84 yuan/ton, up 9.29 yuan/ton from the previous week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3,900 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was 94.03 yuan/ton, down 6.37 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 41.37 yuan/ton, up 11.43 yuan/ton from the previous week [29][32]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Glass Production and Operating Rate**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112,122.5 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with 225 operating production lines, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.01% [37]. - **Glass Demand**: As of September 20, 2025, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.4 days, up 0.85 days from the previous week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 47.10%, down 1.00% from the previous week. According to WIND data, from January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%; in August alone, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98%. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in August, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.8154 million and 2.8566 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.96% and 16.44% respectively; from January to August, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 21.051 million and 21.128 million respectively [40][43][46]. 05. Inventory - **Inventory**: As of September 20, 2025, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 60.908 million heavy boxes, down 675,000 heavy boxes from the previous week; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 3.0448 million heavy boxes, up 388,800 heavy boxes from the previous week [51]. Report on Soda Ash 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View On the supply side, it was generally stable. Some plants such as Anhui Hongsifang and Hubei Xindu resumed production one after another, but short - term local shutdowns for maintenance still led to a slight contraction in the industry's operating load, and the overall supply showed narrow - range fluctuations. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement. The pre - holiday stocking willingness of some enterprises gradually increased, and they replenished inventory in moderation at low prices, driving the enterprise inventory to show a downward trend. Some manufacturers' orders were basically fully signed, and the mentality of stabilizing prices was strengthened. However, the current industry supply was still at a relatively high level, and the absolute inventory level was still relatively high, so the upward driving force of the fundamentals was still limited. From a trading perspective, the trading volume this week was small, and an effective breakthrough could not be formed. The form was relatively loose, and it was still in a volatile market. It was recommended to be cautious [63]. 3. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of September 20, 2025, the spot market quotation of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,216 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,306 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous week; the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. As of September 20, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 91 yuan/ton (- 16), the 05 - 09 spread was - 46 yuan/ton (- 244), the 09 - 01 spread was 137 yuan/ton (+ 260), and the open interest reached 1.9181 million lots [62]. - **Cost - profit**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.75 yuan/ton, down 0.45 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108.5 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of September 20, 2025, the price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 700 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3,900 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous week [62]. - **Supply**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 74,570 tons, down 1,540 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.53%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41,770 tons, down 400 tons from the previous week; the output of light soda ash was 32,800 tons, down 1,140 tons from the previous week [62]. - **Demand**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112,122.5 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with 225 operating production lines, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.01%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in July reached 3.01 million tons [62]. - **Inventory**: As of September 20, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7556 million tons, down 41,900 tons from the previous week; the inventory available days were 14.56 days, down 0.34 days from the previous week. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 100,610 tons, down 2,840 tons from the previous week; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 74,950 tons, down 1,350 tons from the previous week [62]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Soda Ash Basis**: As of September 20, 2025, the spot market quotation of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,216 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,306 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous week; the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [68]. - **Soda Ash Inter - monthly Spread**: As of September 20, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 91 yuan/ton (- 16), the 05 - 09 spread was - 46 yuan/ton (- 244), the 09 - 01 spread was 137 yuan/ton (+ 260), and the open interest reached 1.9181 million lots [71]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Soda Ash Profit**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.75 yuan/ton, down 0.45 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108.5 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous week [79]. - **Raw Material Cost**: As of September 20, 2025, the price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 700 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3,900 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of raw salt in Northwest China was 205 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [82][85]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Soda Ash Production**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 74,570 tons, down 1,540 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.53%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41,770 tons, down 400 tons from the previous week; the output of light soda ash was 32,800 tons, down 1,140 tons from the previous week [90][93]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112,122.5 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with 225 operating production lines, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.01%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in July reached 3.01 million tons [96]. 05. Inventory - **Soda Ash Inventory**: As of September 20, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7556 million tons, down 41,900 tons from the previous week; the inventory available days were 14.56 days, down 0.34 days from the previous week. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 100,610 tons, down 2,840 tons from the previous week; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 74,950 tons, down 1,350 tons from the previous week [101][104].

持续上涨后，波动加剧 股指周报 2025/09/20 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 目录 03 经济与企业盈利 06 估值 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利率与信用环境 02 期现市场 05 资金面 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 重要消息：1、商务部等9部门发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，推动互联网、文化等领域有序开放，扩大电信、医疗、教育等 领域开放试点；探索设置中小学春秋假，相应缩短寒暑假时间；2、当地时间9月14日，中美双方在西班牙马德里就有关经贸问题举行会谈； 3、英伟达违反反垄断法 市场监管总局依法决定实施进一步调查；4、美国联邦储备委员会当地时间17日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下 调25个基点到4.00%-4.25%之间，符合市场普遍预期；5、英伟达宣布50亿美元入股英特尔。在数据中心领域，英特尔将为英伟达定制x86 CPU，由英伟达将其集成至人工智能基础设施平台并投放市场。 经济与企业盈利：1、国家统计局：8月份规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长5.2%，2025年1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term recommendation is to wait and see, as the ore price has short - term support but may face pressure after the rainy season; the over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, the inventory accumulation trend continues, and the opening of the import window may exacerbate the oversupply situation. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run strongly. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 pm on September 19, the alumina index rose slightly by 1.34% to 2954 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 17,000 lots to 425,000 lots. Affected by the interest rate cut expectation, the non - ferrous sector rebounded during the week, driving the alumina futures price to rebound and then gradually decline after the interest rate meeting. The Shandong spot price was 2950 yuan/ton, with a premium of 22 yuan/ton over the 10 - contract, and the discount gradually converged [10]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the alumina spot prices in various regions continued to decline. The prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 50 yuan/ton, 45 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. The continuous inventory accumulation put pressure on the spot price [10]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 48,000 tons to 4461,000 tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 23,000 tons, 20,000 tons, 18,000 tons, and decreased by 13,000 tons respectively. The SHFE alumina warehouse receipts increased by 11,700 tons to 150,400 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory was 174,200 tons, an increase of 8900 tons from last week. The registered volume of warehouse receipts further increased [10]. - **Mine End**: Domestic bauxite production has decreased recently due to environmental supervision in the north and the rainy season in the south, and the domestic ore price is expected to remain firm. For imported ore, the shipment from Guinea has decreased, which may lead to a decline in the arrival volume of imported ore, and the ore price has short - term support but may face pressure after the rainy season [11]. - **Supply End**: The weekly domestic alumina production reached 1.861 million tons this week, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week, hitting a record high [11]. - **Import and Export**: As of September 19, the FOB price in Australia dropped by 10 US dollars/ton to 323 US dollars/ton this week, and the import profit and loss was 103 yuan/ton, with the import window opening. The increase in future imports may exacerbate the oversupply situation in the domestic alumina market [11]. - **Demand End**: In August 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.4 million tons, an increase of 208,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate decreased by 0.12% to 97.12% month - on - month [11]. 2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The alumina spot prices in various regions continued to decline this week. The prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 50 yuan/ton, 45 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. The continuous inventory accumulation put pressure on the spot price [19]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: As of 3 pm on September 19, the alumina index rose slightly by 1.34% to 2954 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 17,000 lots to 425,000 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2950 yuan/ton, with a premium of 22 yuan/ton over the 10 - contract, and the discount gradually converged. The month - to - month spread between contract 1 and contract 3 closed at - 21 yuan/ton [22]. - **Bauxite Price**: The bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. The CIF price of Guinea ore was 74.5 US dollars/ton, and that of Australian ore was 70 US dollars/ton. The shipment from Guinea decreased, and the ore price had short - term support [25]. 3. Supply End - **Bauxite Production**: In August 2025, China's bauxite production was 5.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.38%. The total production in the first seven months of 2025 was 40.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [28]. - **Bauxite Import**: In July 2025, China imported 20.06 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 33.75% and a month - on - month increase of 10.75%. The total import in the first seven months of 2025 was 123.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.69% [30]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In August, China's bauxite inventory decreased by 160,000 tons, and the total inventory reached 53.3 million tons, still at a high level in the past five years. The inventory in Shanxi decreased by 120,000 tons, and that in Henan decreased by 40,000 tons [37]. - **Alumina Production**: In August 2025, the alumina production was 7.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.53% and a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. The cumulative production in the first eight months of 2025 was 59.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.45% [39]. - **Alumina Operating Capacity**: In August 2025, the operating capacity of alumina was 94.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.87% and a month - on - month increase of 0.85%. The weekly domestic alumina production reached 1.861 million tons this week, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week, hitting a record high [40]. - **Alumina Factory Profit**: The alumina spot price declined, and the profit of alumina factories was under pressure. The production profit in Guangxi could reach 415 yuan/ton. The profit of using Australian ore and Guinea ore in Shandong was 120 yuan/ton and 180 yuan/ton respectively. Alumina factories in inland areas using overseas ore had a slight loss [43]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In July 2025, the net export of alumina was 103,500 tons. The import volume increased from 101,300 tons last month to 125,900 tons, and the export volume increased from 171,000 tons to 229,400 tons. The total net export in the first seven months of 2025 was 1.1786 million tons. As of September 19, the FOB price in Australia dropped by 10 US dollars/ton to 323 US dollars/ton this week, and the import profit and loss was 103 yuan/ton, with the import window opening [45][47]. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In August 2025, the overseas alumina production was 5.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.21% and a month - on - month increase of 0.57%. The cumulative production in the first eight months of 2025 was 41.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.62% [50]. 4. Demand End - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In August 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.788 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.72% and a month - on - month increase of 0.26%. The total production in the first eight months of 2025 was 29.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.72% [54]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operating Capacity and Operating Rate**: In August 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.4 million tons, an increase of 208,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate decreased by 0.12% to 97.12% month - on - month [57]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance - The alumina supply - demand balance table shows the supply and demand situation of alumina in each month from January to December 2025, including supply, demand, import, export, and supply - demand difference [59]. 6. Inventory - **Social Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 48,000 tons to 4.461 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 23,000 tons, 20,000 tons, 18,000 tons, and decreased by 13,000 tons respectively [63]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The SHFE alumina warehouse receipts increased by 11,700 tons to 150,400 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory was 174,200 tons, an increase of 8900 tons from last week. The registered volume of warehouse receipts further increased [65].