能源化工日报 2025-08-21 原油 能源化工组 2025/08/21 原油早评 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.63 美元，涨幅 1.01%，报 63.14 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 1.09 美元，涨幅 1.65%，报 67.04 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.00 元，跌幅 0.21%， 报 475.9 元。 数据方面：美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存去库 6.01 百万桶至 420.68 百万桶， 环比去库 1.41%；SPR 补库 0.22 百万桶至 403.43 百万桶，环比补库 0.06%；汽油库存去库 2.72 百万桶至 223.57 百万桶，环比去库 1.20%；柴油库存累库 2.34 百万桶至 116.03 百万桶，环 比累库 2.06%；燃料油库存累库 0.08 百万桶至 19.81 百万桶，环比累库 0.39%；航空煤油库 存去库 0.45 百万桶至 43.30 百万桶，环比去库 1.02%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为尽管地 ...

（2）金融期权波动性分析：金融期权隐含波动率逐渐上升至均值偏上水平波动。 （3）金融期权策略与建议：对于ETF期权来说，适合构建备兑策略和偏中性的双卖策略，垂直价差组合策略；对于 股指期权来说，适合构建偏中性的双卖策略和期权合成期货多头或空头与期货空头或多头做套利策略。 表1：金融市场重要指数概况 | 重要指数 | 指数代码 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 额变化 | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (亿元) | （亿元） | | | 上证指数 | 000001.SH | 3,727.29 | -0.74 | -0.02 | 10,609 | -730 | 15.97 | | 深证成指 | 399001.SZ | 11,821.63 | -13.95 | -0.12 | 15,275 | -1,028 | 28.47 | | 上证50 | 000016.SH | 2,812.42 | -26.45 | -0.93 | 1,531 | -90 | 11.50 | | 沪深300 | 0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the soybean/meal market, it is in a state of mixed long - and short - term factors. The cost of soybean imports is showing a stable and slightly rising trend, while the domestic meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to profit margins, supply pressure, and new supply - side drivers [3][5]. - For the palm oil market, the price is expected to remain above 4300 ringgit. The market is supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy, low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. However, the upside is limited by factors like annual - level production increase expectations and uncertain RVO rules. It is expected to be volatile and bullish [6][9]. - For the sugar market, the probability of a significant rebound in raw sugar prices is low due to increased production in Brazil and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere. Domestically, with increasing imports and high import profits, Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [11][12]. - For the cotton market, the USDA report and the suspension of tariffs are positive factors, but weak downstream consumption and slow de - stocking may cause short - term prices to remain in a high - level oscillation [14][15]. - For the egg market, large supply leads to weaker - than - expected prices in the peak season. The short - term market may fluctuate, and in the medium - term, selling opportunities after rebounds should be focused on [17][19]. - For the pig market, the spot price has temporarily stabilized, and the market is expected to enter a range - bound oscillation. In the short - term, low - price buying is recommended, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [21][22]. 3. Summary by Categories Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Tuesday night, US soybeans declined. Some regions had higher - than - expected soybean yields, and Brazilian premiums slightly decreased, leading to a drop in soybean import costs. Domestic meal spot basis was stable, with weak trading and good pick - up. Last week, 2.339 million tons of soybeans were crushed, and this week, 2.4043 million tons are expected. The US soybean - growing area is expected to have less rainfall in the next two weeks, and the USDA has significantly reduced the planting area, with a 1.08 - million - ton decrease in US soybean production [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the stable and slightly rising trend of soybean import costs and the seasonal supply surplus in the domestic meal market, it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to profit margins, supply pressure, and new supply - side drivers [5]. Palm Oil - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month, and the 1 - 15 - day exports are expected to increase by 16.5% - 21.3%. From August 1 - 15, production increased by 0.88%, with a 1.78% decrease in yield per unit and a 0.51% increase in oil extraction rate compared to the same period last month. The MPOC expects palm oil prices to remain above 4300 ringgit. On Tuesday night, domestic oils declined due to the overall commodity market sentiment [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is supported by multiple factors but has upside limitations. It is expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated. The closing price of the January contract was 5661 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.19%. Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. In July, the average sugarcane yield in southern Brazil decreased by 5.6% year - on - year [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The probability of a significant rebound in raw sugar prices is low, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated. The closing price of the January contract was 14100 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.18%. The spot price remained unchanged, and the US cotton good - quality rate as of August 17 was 55%, up 2 percentage points from the previous week and 13 percentage points year - on - year [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices may remain in a high - level oscillation due to positive and negative factors [15]. Egg - **Important Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with some slight declines. The average price in the main production areas was 3.21 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and demand was weak, so egg prices may be stable or decline [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term market may fluctuate, and in the medium - term, selling opportunities after rebounds should be focused on [19]. Pig - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price was half - stable and half - rising. The average price in Henan increased by 0.09 yuan to 13.77 yuan/kg, while that in Sichuan remained at 13.47 yuan/kg. Northern price increases may drive up prices in some regions, while central regions may remain stable [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is expected to enter a range - bound oscillation. In the short - term, low - price buying is recommended, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The stock market may experience intensified short - term volatility after continuous recent rises, but the overall strategy is to go long on dips. The bond market may return to a wide - range shock pattern in the short term, while the long - term interest rate trend is downward. For most commodities, prices are affected by various factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, policies, and macro - economic conditions, showing different trends and adjustment ranges [3][6]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Index - News includes a photovoltaic industry symposium, satellite internet application promotion, high trading volume in the stock market, and an "AI + manufacturing" development plan. The trading logic is that policies support the capital market, and the short - term market may be volatile, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [2][3]. - The basis ratios of different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH are provided [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. News includes fiscal revenue data and global hedge funds buying Chinese stocks. The central bank conducted a net injection of 4657 billion yuan. The strategy is that the interest rate may decline in the long - term, and the bond market may be in a wide - range shock pattern in the short term [4][6]. Precious Metals - Domestic precious metals prices generally declined, while international prices rose slightly. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The short - term pressure on precious metals prices is due to the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the resilience of US economic data. Wait for Powell's speech to decide on silver long positions [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Copper prices may consolidate due to concerns about US tariffs and cooling "anti - involution" sentiment. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the overall price may wait for macro - economic drivers. The operating ranges of Shanghai copper and LME copper are provided [10]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices oscillated and adjusted due to the expansion of US aluminum tariffs and cooling "anti - involution" sentiment. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is low, but the downstream consumption is weak. The short - term price may be in an oscillatory adjustment [11]. Zinc - Zinc prices have a large downward risk. The domestic zinc market is in an oversupply situation, and the LME market's structural disturbance is receding [12]. Lead - Lead prices are expected to be weak. The industry has a situation of weak supply and demand, and the social inventory of lead ingots is rising [13]. Nickel - Nickel prices may have a callback pressure in the short term, but there is support in the long term. If the price drops significantly, long positions can be established [14]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to oscillate. The supply is tight in the short term, and the demand is weak in the off - season [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium has adjusted. The supply and demand pattern improvement depends on the reduction of the ore end. Speculative funds are advised to wait and see, and holders can choose opportunities to enter the market [17]. Alumina - Alumina prices may be shorted on rallies. The supply of ore is disturbed, but the over - capacity pattern remains [18]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate. The market is weak, and the downstream procurement is cautious [19]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices face upward resistance. The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are both weak [20]. Black Building Materials Steel - Steel prices may decline if demand cannot be repaired. The demand for rebar has decreased, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has increased. The inventory of both is rising, and the demand is insufficient [22][23]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices may adjust slightly. The supply is increasing, the demand is slightly weak, and the inventory is rising [24][25]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices are expected to oscillate. The inventory is increasing, and the demand is not significantly improved. Soda ash prices are also expected to oscillate, with the price center expected to rise in the long - term, but the upward space is limited [26][27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have declined. Investment positions are advised to wait and see, and hedging positions can be considered. The "anti - involution" policy has an impact on the market, and the final price will return to the fundamentals [28][29]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The over - capacity and high inventory problems remain. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, and the follow - up impact of warehouse receipts needs attention [31][33]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is advisable to wait and see. The long and short sides have different views on rubber prices, and the industry's tire production and inventory data are provided [35][36]. Crude Oil - Crude oil has the potential to rise, but the upward space is limited in the short term. The target price of WTI is set at $70.4 per barrel, and short - term long positions can be taken on dips [39][40]. Methanol - Methanol prices are advised to wait and see. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is expected to improve in the peak season [41]. Urea - Urea prices can be considered for long positions on dips. The supply is loose, the demand is average, and the price may break through the oscillatory range with positive news [42]. Styrene - Styrene prices may rise with the cost. The cost support exists, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is improving [43]. PVC - PVC prices are advised to wait and see. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high [46]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol prices may decline in the short term. The supply and demand situation is changing, and the inventory may accumulate [47]. PTA - PTA prices can be considered for long positions on dips with PX. The supply may accumulate, and the demand needs improvement [48]. p - Xylene - p - Xylene prices can be considered for long positions on dips with crude oil. The load is high, the inventory may decrease, and the valuation has support [49][50]. Polyethylene PE - Polyethylene prices are affected by cost and supply. The short - term contradiction has shifted, and short positions can be held [51]. Polypropylene PP - Polypropylene prices are expected to oscillate strongly with crude oil. The supply and demand are both weak in the off - season [52]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Hog prices may be in an oscillatory range. The short - term can focus on low - buying, the medium - term should pay attention to the upper pressure, and the far - month can use the reverse spread strategy [53]. Eggs - Egg prices may be stable or decline. The supply is large, and the short - term may fluctuate, while the medium - term can consider short positions after the price rebounds [54]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Soybean meal prices follow the cost to oscillate. The import cost has a stable and slightly rising trend. Long positions can be tried on dips in the cost range [55][56]. Oils - Oil prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The fundamentals support the price center, but the upward space is limited [57][59]. Sugar - Sugar prices are likely to decline. The international and domestic supply is increasing, and the valuation is high [60]. Cotton - Cotton prices may oscillate at a high level. The USDA report is positive, but the downstream consumption is average [61].

钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 专题报告 2025-08-20 贵金属：关注杰克逊霍尔会议中鲍威尔的表态 报告要点： 本月公布的美国经济数据显示，当前美国劳动力市场已显著转弱，通胀仍面临关税所带来 的风险，这令美联储在近期仍能够就货币政策进行相对谨慎的表态。但当前特朗普政府对于美 联储独立性的干扰更为显著，面临同样具备韧性的 PPI 数据，联储官员的表态存在较大的差异。 同时，低于预期的非农数据公布后美国劳工统计局局长即被撤换，美国经济数据的独立客观性 后续将被明显削弱，联储官员的货币政策观点将对于市场预期产生更大影响。在此背景下，需 要密切关注现任联储主席以及重要理事对于后续货币政策路径的表态，本周进行的杰克逊霍尔 央行年会中鲍威尔的表态将会对市场预期产生显著影响，需要重点关注。 数据来源：WIND、五矿期货研究中心 数据来源：WIND、五矿期货研究中心 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 贵金属研究 一、美国 7 月份 PPI 数据显示通胀隐忧，但联储官员表态有所分化 美国 7 月 CPI 及 PPI 数据显示输入性通胀 ...

能源化工日报 2025-08-20 原油 2025/08/20 原油早评 能源化工组 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前基本面市场健康，在库欣低库存的情况下，叠加飓风预期与俄罗斯相关事件，原 油具备上涨动能。但 8 月中旬淡季降至，季节性需求转弱将限制原油的上行空间，在上行空间 与窗口期都较为有限的情况下，我们予以短期内 WTI $70.4/桶的目标价格，逢低短多止盈，在 油价出现大幅杀跌时左侧埋伏 9 月俄罗斯地缘预期与飓风断供季。 甲醇 2025/08/20 甲醇 8 月 19 日 01 合约跌 5 元/吨，报 2391 元/吨，现货跌 22 元/吨，基差-111。煤炭价格底部抬升， 甲醇成本走高，但煤制利润依旧在同比高位，国内开工逐步见底回升，后续边际走高，海外装 置开工回到同期高位，后续进口将逐渐走高，整体看供应压力较大。需求方面，传统需求大多 数利润低位，关注后续金九银十实际需求情况。烯烃利润有所改善，港口开工不高，需求表现 偏弱。目前甲醇现实疲弱不改，后续随着旺季的到来预计需求 ...

金属期权 2025-08-20 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属偏弱震荡，构建卖方中性波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系维持大幅度波动的 行情走势，适合构建做空波动率组合策略；（3）贵金属高位盘整震荡有所回落，构建现货避险策略。 | 表1：标的期货市场概况 | | --- | | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （ ...

农产品期权 2025-08-20 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏弱震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖小幅震荡， 棉花弱势盘整，谷物类玉米和淀粉弱势窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （ ...

能源化工期权 2025-08-20 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

黑色建材日报 2025-08-20 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3126 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 29 元/吨（-0.91%）。当日注册仓单 134549 吨, 环比增加 15137 吨。主力合约持仓量为 160.8694 万手，环比减少 1199 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天 津汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷 主力合约收盘价为 3416 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 3 元/吨（-0.08%）。 当日注册仓单 79266 吨, 环比增加 880 吨。主力合约持仓量为 118.4978 万手， ...