能源化工日报 2025-11-19 原油 2025/11/19 原油 能源化工组 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 2.00 元/桶，跌幅 0.43%，报 458.80 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 42.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.62%，报 2558.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 10.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.31%，报 3247.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存去库 1.11 百万桶至 6.31 百万桶，环比去库 14.96%； 2025/11/19 甲醇 【行情资讯】 太仓价格-10，鲁南-5，内蒙+7.5，盘面 01 合约+1 元，报 2030 元/吨，基差-28。1-5 价差-7， 报-123。 【策略观点】 目前港口高库存持续压制价格表现，当前海外开工依旧维持高位，前期海外提前停车的利多被 证伪，到港恢复到高位水平，港口库存进一步走高。煤炭价格强势，甲醇企业利润快速走低， 企业开工环比小幅回落，供应压力仍在。需求方面，港口烯烃负荷小幅 ...

农产品早报 2025-11-19 五矿期货农产品早报 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 进口成本方面，全球大豆新作产量一直被边际下调，总产量已持平于总需求，全球大豆供应相比 24/25 年度有所下降，这意味着进口成本的底部或已显现，但向上空间或需要更大的减产力度。当前国内大豆 库存处历年最高水平，豆粕库存偏大，榨利承压，不过逐步进入去库季节，存在一定支撑。豆粕在成本 有支撑，榨利承压的情况下预计震荡运行。 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周二 CBOT 大豆先涨后落，美豆上涨至 1070 美分/蒲触及成本线触发回调，周二巴西升贴水下跌 3-6 美 分/蒲，大豆到港成本震荡。国内豆粕现货小幅下调 20 元/吨，华东报 2990 元/吨，豆粕成交、提货均较 好。MYSTEEL 预计本周 ...

（1）股市短评：上证综指数、大盘蓝筹股、中小盘股和创业板股表现为高位震荡上行的市场行情。 （2）金融期权波动性分析：金融期权隐含波动率下降，但维持较高水平波动。 （3）金融期权策略与建议：对于ETF期权来说，适合构建偏多头的买方策略，认购期权牛市价差组合策略；对于股 指期权来说，适合构建偏多头的卖方策略、认购期权牛市价差组合策略和期权合成期货多头与期货空头做套利策略 。 金融期权 2025-11-18 金融期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金融期权策略早报概要： 表1：金融市场重要指数概况 | 重要指数 | 指数代码 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 额变化 | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: November 18, 2025 [1] - Report type: Metal options strategy morning report - Research team members: Lu Pinxian, Huang Kehan, Li Renjun [2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Construct a seller neutral volatility strategy for non - ferrous metals as they tend to move upwards [2] - Build a short - volatility portfolio strategy for the black series due to their large - amplitude fluctuations [2] - Create a bull spread portfolio strategy for precious metals as they rebound and rise [2] Group 4: Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts are presented, such as copper (CU2512), aluminum (AL2512), etc. [3] Group 5: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different metal options are analyzed, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4] Group 6: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different metal options are determined from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options [5] Group 7: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different metal options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc., are provided [6] Group 8: Option Strategies and Recommendations Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Build a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum**: Construct a call option bull spread strategy, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc**: Build a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: Construct a short - volatility option combination strategy with a short position and a spot covered - call strategy [10] - **Tin**: Build a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium carbonate**: Construct a call option bull spread strategy, a short - volatility option combination strategy with a long position, and a spot long - hedging strategy [11] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Build a short - volatility option seller combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [12] Black Series - **Rebar**: Build a short - volatility option combination strategy with a short position and a spot long - covered - call strategy [13] - **Iron ore**: Build a short - volatility option combination strategy with a short position and a spot long - collar strategy [13] - **Ferroalloys**: Build a short - volatility strategy for manganese silicon [14] - **Industrial silicon**: Build a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [14] - **Glass**: Build a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [15] Group 9: Option Charts - Option charts of various metals, including price trends, volume and open interest distributions, PCR trends, implied volatility trends, historical volatility cones, etc., are presented [16][38][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies suggest constructing option combination strategies mainly as sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil SC2601 is 462, with a price increase of 1 and a price change rate of 0.24% [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The report provides the volume and open interest PCR data of various energy - chemical options, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and whether the underlying market has a turning point. For example, the open interest PCR of crude oil options is 0.80, indicating a relatively weak recent crude oil market [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the exercise prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the report determines the pressure and support levels of various energy - chemical option underlying assets. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 540 and the support level is 460 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report shows the implied volatility data of various energy - chemical options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 24.12%, and the weighted implied volatility is 26.46% with a change of - 0.17% [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: - **Fundamentals**: US crude oil inventories showed different trends, with an overall increase in total, strategic, and commercial inventories, and a decrease in Cushing area inventories. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a complex trend of rise and fall from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated above the average, open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weak market, and the pressure and support levels were 540 and 460 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **LPG**: - **Fundamentals**: The LPG market was relatively strong, with a rebound in the external market and a marginal tightening of the domestic fundamental situation. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a trend of decline, rebound, and then consolidation from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility dropped significantly to below the average, open interest PCR was around 0.80, indicating a weak market, and the pressure and support levels were 4500 and 4250 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: - **Fundamentals**: Supply was expected to increase, and inventory might accumulate slightly. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a weak downward trend from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the historical average, open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weak and volatile market, and the pressure and support levels were 2500 and 2000 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bear spread strategy for direction, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Ethylene Glycol**: - **Fundamentals**: Production increased slightly, and port inventory increased significantly. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a weak downward trend from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated below the average, open interest PCR was around 0.70, indicating strong short - side power, and the pressure and support levels were 4500 and 4050 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bear spread strategy for direction, a short - volatility strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: - **Fundamentals**: Production increased, and capacity utilization rose. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a weak downward trend from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility dropped to around the average, open interest PCR was around 0.70, indicating a weak market, and the pressure and support levels were 7000 and 6300 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bear spread strategy for direction, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: - **Fundamentals**: Tire production capacity utilization showed different trends, and inventory turnover days changed. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a weak consolidation trend from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility rose sharply and then dropped to below the average, open interest PCR was below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels were 16000 and 15000 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [11] 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: - **Fundamentals**: Some PTA plants had production adjustments, and the operating rate changed. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a trend of decline, rebound, and then consolidation from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated above the average, open interest PCR was around 0.70, indicating a volatile market, and the pressure and support levels were 4700 and 4300 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [11] 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: - **Fundamentals**: The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda plants decreased slightly, with different trends in different regions. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a weak downward trend from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility was at a relatively high level, open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weak and volatile market, and the pressure and support levels were 3000 and 2200 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bear spread strategy for direction, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] - **Soda Ash**: - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased year - on - year. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a weak consolidation trend from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility was at a relatively high historical level, open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong short - side pressure, and the pressure and support levels were 1860 and 1100 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bear spread strategy for direction, a short - volatility combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] 3.5.7 Other Options - **Urea**: - **Fundamentals**: Enterprise inventory decreased, and port inventory increased. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a trend of wide - range fluctuation, decline, and then rebound from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated slightly around the historical average, open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong short - side pressure, and the pressure and support levels were 1800 and 1600 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]

农产品期权 2025-11-18 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏弱震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖小幅震荡， 棉花弱势盘整，谷物类玉米和淀粉弱势窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （ ...

贵金属日报 2025-11-18 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 0.04 %，报 931.24 元/克，沪银跌 0.17 %，报 11983.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4045.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 50.05 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.13%，美元指数报 99.53 ； 昨夜美联储理事沃勒、副主席杰斐逊表态偏鸽派，进一步强化市场对于美联储后续降息的预期， 金银价格短期将得到支撑。 沃勒表态支持联储于 12 月议息会议中进行 25 个基点的降息操作，他表示担心限制性的货币政 策给经济带来压力。对于通胀，沃勒认为价格数据显示关税不会为通胀带来长期的影响。美联 储副主席杰斐逊表态边际转鸽派，他认为劳动力市场正在逐步降温，但仍需依赖数据进行偏谨 慎的货币政策决定。 当前美联储对于资产负债表的扩张周期仅处于初期的"信息传递"阶段，且利率仍有较大的下 调空间：回顾以往美联储货币政策的推行，其伴随着从"预期管理" ...

文字早评 2025/11/18 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、财政部：1—10 月全国一般公共预算收入 18.6 万亿元 同比增长 0.8%； 2、聚变新能发布核聚变采购项目 累计金额超 20 亿元； 3、中芯国际：承接大量模拟、存储包括 NOR/NAND Flash、MCU 等急单 目前存储行业供应存在缺口预 计高价位态势将持续； 4、海峡创新：10 月 28 日、11 月 4 日、11 月 17 日出现三次股价异常波动或严重异常波动 明起停牌核 查。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.05%/-0.36%/-0.99%/-1.85%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.27%/-1.27%/-3.80%/-6.60%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.37%/-1.71%/-4.80%/-7.91%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.06%/-0.10%/-0.16%/-0.32%。 【策略观点】 经过前期持续上涨后，近期热点板块快速轮动，科技成长仍是市场主线。从大方向看，政策支持资本市 场的态度未变，中长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周 ...

农产品早报 2025-11-18 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 未来两周，巴西大豆产区前期雨量偏少区域预计恢复降雨，预计播种较为顺利，截至上周四种植进度已 达 71%。USDA 月报下调全球大豆新作产量约 410 万吨，期末库存下调 200 万吨，全球大豆平衡表边际 收紧。美豆产量则下调约 130 万吨，但把美豆出口下调了 136 万吨，导致美豆库存仅下调 28 万吨，美 豆盘面因此逢高回调。 【策略观点】 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 进口成本方面，全球大豆新作产量一直被边际下调，总产量已持平于总需求，全球大豆供应相比 24/25 年度有所下降，这意味着进口成本的底部或已显现，但向上空间或需要更大的减产力度。当前国内大豆 库存处历年最高水平，豆粕库存偏大，榨利承压，不过逐步进入去库季节，存在一定支撑。豆粕在成本 有支撑，榨利承压的情况下预计震荡运行。 油脂 【行情资讯】 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative feedback of the recent decline in the steel market has ended, and short - term price increases are mainly due to short - sellers taking profits. Steel demand has entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [2]. - For iron ore, although the supply has recovered and high inventory suppresses prices, the short - term increase in hot metal production supports demand. In the macro - vacuum period, prices will operate within a shock range [5]. - For the black sector, as the time approaches December, the positive impact of macro - expectations on sentiment and prices is expected to increase. It is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short. The future price increase depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies [10][11]. - Industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of "weak supply and demand", with short - term prices likely to be weak and volatile. Polysilicon is still fluctuating between reality and expectations, and prices are in a wide - range shock [15][17]. - For glass, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high inventory, and weak demand, the short - term market will continue to be weak. For soda ash, with high supply and weak demand, prices will continue to oscillate at a low level [20][22]. Summary by Directory Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3097 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (1.441%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3655 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 107385 lots. In the spot market, prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 30 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3302 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton (1.412%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 6484 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 23505 lots. In the spot market, prices in Lecong and Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar shows a pattern of both supply and demand decline and continuous inventory reduction, with a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have weak terminal demand, and inventory is accumulating against the season. In the short term, prices are likely to be weak and volatile, but there may be an inflection point in demand later [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 788.50 yuan/ton, up 2.07% (+16.00). The positions increased by 1019 lots to 48.14 million lots. The weighted positions were 90.75 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 53.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.38% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume has recovered significantly. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal output has increased, but the steel mill profitability rate is declining. Port inventory is accumulating. In the short term, prices will operate within a shock range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - The manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.77% at 5792 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 98 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF601) closed up 1.38% at 5566 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 34 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - As the time approaches December, the positive impact of macro - expectations on the black sector is expected to increase. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the operability is low [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9080 yuan/ton, up 0.67% (+60). The weighted contract positions decreased by 2209 lots to 401179 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [13]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 52655 yuan/ton, down 2.57% (-1390). The weighted contract positions decreased by 6818 lots to 234241 lots [16]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of "weak supply and demand", with short - term prices likely to be weak and volatile. Polysilicon is still fluctuating between reality and expectations, and prices are in a wide - range shock [15][17]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1029 yuan/ton, down 0.29% (-3). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 11.10 million cases (0.18%) [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1231 yuan/ton, up 0.41% (+5). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 0.69 million tons (0.18%) [21]. Strategy Viewpoints - For glass, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high inventory, and weak demand, the short - term market will continue to be weak. For soda ash, with high supply and weak demand, prices will continue to oscillate at a low level [20][22].