铜 有色金属日报 2025-11-17 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 铝 【行情资讯】 周五市场风险偏好走弱，铝价下探，伦铝收跌 0.64%至 2858 美元/吨，沪铝主力合约收至 21795 元/ 吨。沪铝加权合约持仓量减少 4.4 至 78.4 万手，期货仓单持平于 6.5 万吨。国内三地铝锭库存增 加，铝棒库存亦增加，铝棒加工费震荡下滑，市场交投仍不佳。华东电解铝现货平水于期货，下游 刚需采买为主。外盘 LME 铝库存减少 0.1 至 55.2 万吨，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 贴水扩 ...

金银价格冲高回落的情况下，其本身具备的上涨驱动仍未改变。同时，联储即将进入资产负债 表的宽松周期，四季度白银需求量具备韧性。金银比价当前为 80.77，仍高于 1971 年以来 62 一线的历史均值。策略上建议等待金银价格回调企稳后逢低介入白银多单，沪金主力合约参考 运行区间 903-982 元/克，沪银主力合约参考运行区间 11534-12639 元/千克。 贵金属研究 贵金属日报 2025-11-17 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 2.53 %，报 934.86 元/克，沪银跌 3.59 %，报 11994.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4098.60 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 50.82 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.14%，美元指数报 99.28 ； 当前美联储对于资产负债表的扩张周期仅处于初期的"信息传递"阶段，且利率仍有较大的下 调空间：回顾以往美联储货币政策的推行，其伴随着从"预期管理"到现实执行的过程。 ...

能源化工日报 2025-11-17 原油 2025/11/17 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收涨 3.00 元/桶，涨幅 0.66%，报 457.40 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 6.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.23%，报 2622.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 27.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.84%，报 3240.00 元/吨。 欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比去库 0.65 百万桶至 8.18 百万桶，环比去库 7.37%；柴 油库存环比累库 0.65 百万桶至 17.05 百万桶，环比累库 3.96%；燃料油库存环比累库 0.24 百 万桶至 6.97 百万桶，环比累库 3.58%；石脑油环比去库 0.04 百万桶至 4.73 百万桶，环比去 库 0.75%；航空煤油环比累库 0.17 百万桶至 8.71 百万桶，环比累库 2.03%；总体成品油环比 累库 0.38 百万桶至 45.64 百万桶，环比累库 0.83%。 刘洁 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, option strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each option variety's report includes analysis of the underlying asset's market, research on option factors, and option strategy recommendations [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interest, and open interest changes of various energy and chemical futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, ethylene glycol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2601) is 455, with a price change of -3 and a change percentage of -0.61% [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The report provides volume and open interest PCR data for different option varieties. The open interest PCR = put option open interest / call option open interest, which describes the strength of the option underlying asset's market; the volume PCR = put option trading volume / call option trading volume, which indicates whether the underlying asset's market is at a turning point [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of each option variety are given, along with the corresponding strike prices, pressure point offsets, and support point offsets. For instance, the pressure point of crude oil (SC2601) is 540 with an offset of -50, and the support point is 460 with an offset of 0 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report includes data on the at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility changes, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, historical 20-day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility for each option variety [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation shows that U.S. refinery demand has stabilized and rebounded, shale oil production has slightly increased, OPEC exports have increased, and European refinery demand is about to enter the peak season. The market has shown a complex price trend since August. Option factors indicate that the implied volatility is above the average, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 540 and 460 respectively. Strategies include constructing a short call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **LPG**: The cost of crude oil is affected by supply and geopolitical issues. The LPG market has shown an oversold rebound and slight consolidation since August. Option factors show that the implied volatility has dropped to below the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 4400 and 4200 respectively. Strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. 3.5.2 Alcohol Options - **Methanol**: Port and enterprise inventories are at high levels and difficult to reduce significantly in the short term. The market has been weak since August. Option factors indicate that the implied volatility is around the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 2500 and 2000 respectively. Strategies include constructing a bear spread with put options for direction, a short call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port and downstream inventories are high, and domestic production and imports are expected to keep the port inventory in an accumulation cycle. The market has been weak. Option factors show that the implied volatility is below the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.70, and the pressure and support levels are 4500 and 4050 respectively. Strategies include constructing a bear spread with put options for direction, a short volatility strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin Options - **Polypropylene**: PE and PP inventories show different trends. The market has been weak. Option factors indicate that the implied volatility has dropped to around the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.70, and the pressure and support levels are 7000 and 6300 respectively. Strategies include constructing a bear spread with put options for direction, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.4 Rubber Options - **Rubber**: Exchange rubber warehouse receipts are at a ten-year low, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The market has been in a weak consolidation. Option factors show that the implied volatility has dropped to below the average after a sharp rise, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 16000 and 14500 respectively. Strategies include constructing a short call + put option combination for volatility [11]. 3.5.5 Polyester Options - **PTA**: The overall social inventory of PTA is increasing, and new installations are expected to continue to increase inventory. The market has shown a rebound with pressure. Option factors indicate that the implied volatility is above the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.70, and the pressure and support levels are 4700 and 4300 respectively. Strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination for volatility [11]. 3.5.6 Alkali Options - **Caustic Soda**: The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda enterprises has increased. The market has been weak. Option factors show that the implied volatility is at a relatively high level, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 3000 and 2000 respectively. Strategies include constructing a bear spread for direction, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The factory inventory of soda ash has increased. The market has been in a low-level weak consolidation. Option factors indicate that the implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 1860 and 1100 respectively. Strategies include constructing a bear spread for direction, a short volatility combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.5.7 Other Options - **Urea**: Enterprise inventory is at a high level, and port inventory is decreasing. The market has shown a low-level rebound. Option factors show that the implied volatility is around the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 1800 and 1600 respectively. Strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The Shanghai Composite Index, large-cap blue-chip stocks, small and medium-cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks showed a market trend of high-level volatile upward movement [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options decreased but remained at a relatively high level of fluctuation [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a bullish buyer strategy and a bull spread strategy for call options; for index options, it is suitable to construct a bullish seller strategy, a bull spread strategy for call options, and an arbitrage strategy between synthetic long futures with options and short futures [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Important Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,029.50, up 29.36 points or 0.73%, with a trading volume of 876.4 billion yuan, an increase of 35.9 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,476.52, up 235.91 points or 1.78%, with a trading volume of 1,165.6 billion yuan, an increase of 61 billion yuan [4]. - The SSE 50 Index closed at 3,073.67, up 29.36 points or 0.96%, with a trading volume of 132.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.4 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,702.07, up 56.17 points or 1.21%, with a trading volume of 510.1 billion yuan, an increase of 17.8 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7,355.29, up 112.04 points or 1.55%, with a trading volume of 339.6 billion yuan, an increase of 25.8 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,590.58, up 104.20 points or 1.39%, with a trading volume of 420.6 billion yuan, an increase of 30.1 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Option Underlying ETF Market Overview - The SSE 50 ETF closed at 3.221, up 0.024 or 0.75%, with a trading volume of 5.0122 million shares, a decrease of 4.9569 million shares, and a trading amount of 1.609 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.16 billion yuan [5]. - The SSE 300 ETF closed at 4.812, up 0.047 or 0.99%, with a trading volume of 6.4596 million shares, an increase of 6.4072 million shares, and a trading amount of 3.096 billion yuan, an increase of 0.604 billion yuan [5]. - The SSE 500 ETF closed at 7.465, up 0.109 or 1.48%, with a trading volume of 1.8866 million shares, an increase of 1.8732 million shares, and a trading amount of 1.401 billion yuan, an increase of 0.415 billion yuan [5]. - The Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.469, up 0.020 or 1.38%, with a trading volume of 23.3899 million shares, an increase of 23.112 million shares, and a trading amount of 3.416 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.595 billion yuan [5]. - The E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.423, up 0.018 or 1.28%, with a trading volume of 6.6554 million shares, an increase of 6.5851 million shares, and a trading amount of 0.942 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.04 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 300 ETF closed at 4.964, up 0.052 or 1.06%, with a trading volume of 1.2066 million shares, an increase of 1.189 million shares, and a trading amount of 0.597 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.268 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 500 ETF closed at 2.982, up 0.045 or 1.53%, with a trading volume of 0.6084 million shares, an increase of 0.6023 million shares, and a trading amount of 0.018 billion yuan, an increase of 0.0004 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 100 ETF closed at 3.584, up 0.056 or 1.59%, with a trading volume of 0.7725 million shares, an increase of 0.7682 million shares, and a trading amount of 0.0274 billion yuan, an increase of 0.0125 billion yuan [5]. - The ChiNext ETF closed at 3.182, up 0.074 or 2.38%, with a trading volume of 16.0187 million shares, an increase of 15.9005 million shares, and a trading amount of 5.045 billion yuan, an increase of 1.397 billion yuan [5]. 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of different option varieties showed different changes, which can be used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [6][7]. 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure Points and Support Points - The pressure points and support points of different option varieties can be seen from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call options and put options [8][10]. 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties showed different levels and changes, which can be used to measure the market's expectation of future price fluctuations [11][12]. 3.6 Strategy and Recommendations - The financial option sector is mainly divided into large-cap blue-chip stocks, small and medium-cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks. Different strategies are recommended for different sectors and option varieties [13]. - For example, for the SSE 50 ETF, it is recommended to construct a seller's bullish combination strategy and a spot long covered call strategy; for the SSE 300 ETF, it is recommended to construct a short volatility strategy and a spot long covered call strategy [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory, and future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future. In the short term, due to the impact of the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly declined, and the demand is still weak, with prices continuing the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to reach an inflection point [2]. - For iron ore, high inventory still suppresses the price. In the short term, the rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin. In the macro vacuum period, the futures price is likely to follow the real - world logic, and the iron ore fundamentals are weak. The short - term ore price will operate within the shock range, with the lower limit between 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is considered that looking for a callback position to do a rebound may have a higher cost - performance ratio than continuing to short. The subsequent overseas situation will be a definite situation of both fiscal and monetary easing, and domestic demand - stimulating policies are still expected. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. - For polysilicon, with a significant reduction in supply, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Be cautious about the authenticity of long and short news [16]. - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, and the downstream demand is average. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.263%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5166 tons to 90327 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 10693 lots to 1.857343 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3254 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 12063 tons to 107606 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 8957 lots to 1.302507 million lots. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong and Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both declined, inventory continued to decline, and the overall performance was neutral. Hot - rolled coils had weak demand, could not absorb the production, and the inventory showed a counter - seasonal accumulation. Overall, steel demand has entered the off - season, and there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 772.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.19% (- 1.50), and the positions decreased by 7106 lots to 494,100 lots. The weighted positions were 910,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.73 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.07% [4]. - The Simandou iron ore project was officially put into production on November 11, but it will take time to reach full production, and the increase is expected to be limited this year [4]. Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to decline. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, and Vale and Rio Tinto contributed to the reduction. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrivals decreased. On the demand side, the daily average hot - metal production was 236.88 tons, up 2.66 tons. The increase mainly came from Hebei, with an increase in the utilization rate of some blast furnace capacities. The steel mill profitability continued to decline, and some regional steel mills started blast furnace annual inspections due to losses. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data was weak. High inventory still suppresses the price, and the short - term rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 13, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed down 0.10% at 5756 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a discount to the futures price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium to the futures price of 134 yuan/ton [7]. - The main silicon iron contract (SF601) closed up 0.29% at 5506 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a discount to the futures price of 6 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - In November, the macro environment entered a relative vacuum period, and the pricing of the black sector returned to the fundamentals. The market was trying a "negative feedback" trading in the black sector, but it was considered a temporary shock and emotional release with limited downside space. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for a callback position to do a rebound. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9145 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.54% (- 50). The weighted positions increased by 6269 lots to 418,415 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 205 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 silicon was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was - 195 yuan/ton [12]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 54195 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.37% (+ 735). The weighted positions increased by 2397 lots to 237,112 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.15 yuan/kg, all unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 2045 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, in October, the production continued to increase. In November, the production in the southwest is expected to decline. The demand for polysilicon decreased, and the organic silicon production is expected to be stable. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to consolidate [13]. - For polysilicon, in November, some production capacities started maintenance, and the production is expected to decline in the last two months. The downstream silicon wafer production is also expected to decline. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1056 yuan/ton, up 0 + 0.67% (+ 7). The North China large - plate price was 1110 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1140 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, up 111,000 boxes (+ 0.18%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 57,921 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 52,810 short positions [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 2.06% (+ 25). The Shahe heavy - alkali price was 1194 yuan, up 30. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, down 0.69 million tons (- 0.18%), including 907,100 tons of heavy - alkali inventory, up 75,000 tons, and 800,200 tons of light - alkali inventory, down 144,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased 21,477 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 16,961 short positions [20]. Strategy Views - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, the downstream support is insufficient, the production enterprise shipment pressure increases, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, the downstream demand is average, especially the consumption of heavy - alkali is weak. Due to the industry - wide losses, some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk appetite is under pressure due to the downgraded probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, but the tight supply pattern of refined copper provides strong support for copper prices. Aluminum prices may rise further due to supply concerns and improved export expectations. Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow aluminum prices. Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but with limited upside. Tin prices are expected to be in a tight balance and show a strong - side oscillation. Nickel prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term. Lithium carbonate prices need to pay attention to high - level selling pressure. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term. Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term [2][3][4][5][9][12][13][15][18][19][22][24][27] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rose and then fell. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly compared to Monday. The spot import of domestic copper was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term risk appetite is under pressure, but the tight supply of refined copper provides support for copper prices. The operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract is 86500 - 88000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME copper 3M contract is 10750 - 11100 dollars/ton [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell, remaining at a relatively high level. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased, and the spot in the Guangdong region changed from a discount to a premium [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply concerns and improved export expectations may push aluminum prices higher. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21880 - 22200 yuan/ton, and that of the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2850 - 2900 dollars/ton [5][6] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract rose, the trading volume increased, and the inventory decreased [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost provides strong support, and the demand is average. The price is expected to follow aluminum prices [9] Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index closed slightly lower, and the LME lead price rose. The domestic social inventory increased slightly [11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The shortage of raw materials restricts production, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [12][13] Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index closed higher, and the LME zinc price rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [14] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc smelting profit is under pressure, and the inventory accumulation slows down. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but with limited upside [15] Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price rose. The supply is still tight, and the demand from emerging fields provides support [17] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to go long on dips [18] Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The price of nickel pig iron fell, and the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, it is recommended to observe. If the price drops enough or the risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, the output increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rise of lithium - battery stocks drives the futures market, but attention should be paid to high - level selling pressure [22] Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, the inventory remained unchanged, and the import was at a loss [24] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of overseas ore is expected to increase, and the production reduction expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to observe in the short - term [24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract price rose, the inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [26][27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is in a weak oscillation due to over - supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to remain weak in the short - term [27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoint The report provides an early morning outlook for metal options on November 14, 2025. It suggests different strategies for various metal sectors: constructing a neutral volatility selling strategy for non - ferrous metals with a bullish upward trend; a short - volatility combination strategy for the black series with large - amplitude fluctuations; and a bull spread combination strategy for precious metals experiencing a rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Prices and Changes**: Various metal futures showed different price movements. For example, copper (CU2512) was at 87,400 with a 0.08% increase; aluminum (AL2512) was at 22,025 with a 0.39% increase; zinc (ZN2512) was at 22,635 with a 0.09% decrease [3]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: There were also changes in trading volume and open interest. For instance, copper had a trading volume of 10.23 million lots (a 2.60 million - lot increase) and an open interest of 20.10 million lots (a 0.02 million - lot increase) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Different metals had different PCR values. For example, copper's volume PCR was 0.40 (a 0.22 decrease), and its open interest PCR was 0.81 (a 0.03 increase) [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: From the perspective of option factors, each metal had its own pressure and support levels. For example, copper's pressure point was 90,000 and its support point was 84,000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: Implied volatility also varied among metals. For example, copper's at - the - money implied volatility was 16.57%, and its weighted implied volatility was 18.63% (a 1.83 increase) [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations - **Non - Ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Based on the analysis of fundamentals, market trends, and option factors, it is recommended to construct a short - volatility selling option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum**: Suggestions include constructing a bull spread combination strategy, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc**: Recommendations are to build a short - neutral volatility option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel**: It is advised to create a short - bearish volatility option combination strategy and a spot covered - call strategy [10]. - **Tin**: Strategies involve a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Suggestions are to construct a short - neutral volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. - **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: It is recommended to build a short - neutral volatility option seller combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [12]. - **Black Series** - **Rebar**: Strategies include a short - bearish volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - covered - call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Recommendations are to construct a short - bearish volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon)**: A short - volatility strategy is suggested [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is advised to build a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [14]. - **Glass**: Strategies involve a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products options market shows different trends. Oilseeds and oils are in a weak and volatile state, while other products like soft commodities and grains also have their own market trends. It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product options have various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,168, up 46 with a 1.12% increase in price, and its trading volume is 8.85 million lots with an increase of 0.91 million lots [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - PCR indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.45 with a change of -0.23, and the open interest PCR is 1.19 with a change of -0.04 [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of the option underlyings are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,200 and the support level is 4,050 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility indicators include at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.01%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.15% with a change of 0.19 [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1**: Fundamentally, the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans in January 2026 decreased weekly, the import cost increased, and the planting progress in Brazil slowed down. The market trend has shown a rebound after a decline. Option - wise, the implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR is below 0.70. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal**: Fundamentally, the average daily trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased weekly, and the basis increased slightly. The market has shown a rebound after a decline. Option - wise, the implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR is below 0.60. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Palm Oil**: Fundamentally, the production in Malaysia is good, and the inventory at the end of the year will be at a relatively high historical level. The market has shown a low - level consolidation. Option - wise, the implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR is above 1.00. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Peanut**: Fundamentally, the peanut oil market is in a contradictory state of high - quality resource support and loose supply - demand. The market has shown a weak downward trend. Option - wise, the implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR is below 0.60. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Pig**: Fundamentally, the national pig slaughter and pork production increased in the first three quarters of 2025. The market has shown a weak downward trend. Option - wise, the implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open interest PCR is below 0.50. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [10] - **Egg**: Fundamentally, the market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand. The market has shown a rebound after a decline. Option - wise, the implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR is below 0.60. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [11] - **Apple**: Fundamentally, the apple production decreased this year, and the cold - storage inventory is expected to be low. The market has shown a continuous upward trend. Option - wise, the implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open interest PCR is above 0.90. Strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] - **Jujube**: Fundamentally, the jujube market price is stable, and the supply is sufficient. The market has shown a weak downward trend. Option - wise, the implied volatility has risen rapidly above the historical average, and the open interest PCR is below 0.50. Strategies include constructing a short - biased strangle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12] 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: Fundamentally, the weak external sugar market restricts the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar, but the expected decline in Brazilian sugar production may have a certain impact. The market has shown a weak downward trend. Option - wise, the implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, and the open interest PCR is around 0.60. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] - **Cotton**: Fundamentally, the cotton harvest in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the new - season supply will increase, putting pressure on cotton prices. The market has shown a short - term weak trend. Option - wise, the implied volatility is at a relatively low level, and the open interest PCR is below 1.00. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [13] 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn**: Fundamentally, the purchase price of domestic processing enterprises has decreased, and the market supply is relatively abundant. The market has shown a weak rebound. Option - wise, the implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, and the open interest PCR is below 0.60. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The technology - growth sector remains the market's main line, and the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, but it is necessary to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. - In the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, as the gold - silver ratio still has room for downward correction [9]. - For various metals and commodities, the strategies vary according to supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. For example, for copper, the supply is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for prices; for aluminum, supply disruptions and improved export expectations may push prices higher [13][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The chairman of the CSRC visited French and Brazilian financial regulatory authorities; in October, M2, M1, and M0 had different year - on - year growth rates; the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing scale stock was 8.5%; SMIC's Q3 net profit increased year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [2]. - **Strategy**: After the previous continuous rise, the hot sectors have been rotating rapidly. The technology - growth sector is still the main line, and the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes; in October, financial data such as M2, M1, and M0 had different performances; the US failed to release the October CPI report; the central bank conducted 1900 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 972 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, but it is necessary to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures prices rose; COMEX gold and silver prices were reported; the US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index were reported; Fed officials' overall stance was hawkish, but the monetary policy was expected to be further relaxed; after the retirement of the Atlanta Fed chairman, the Fed may show a "dovish tendency" [8][9]. - **Strategy**: In the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, as the gold - silver ratio still has room for downward correction. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures are provided [9]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: The domestic equity market strengthened, and the US October CPI data was not released as scheduled. Copper prices rose first and then fell. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and other inventory data changed [11]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference is under pressure, but the supply of refined copper is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference operating range for Shanghai copper futures is provided [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose first and then fell, remaining at a relatively high level. LME aluminum inventory increased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased [14]. - **Strategy**: Supply concerns caused by overseas aluminum plant shutdowns or production cuts, low domestic inventory, and expected easing of global trade tensions and Fed monetary policy may push aluminum prices higher. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME aluminum futures are provided [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc 3S also rose. Domestic and LME zinc inventory data and other market indicators were reported [16]. - **Strategy**: Zinc concentrate TC continued to decline, zinc smelting profit was under pressure, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory accumulation slowed down. Shanghai zinc is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, but the upside space is limited [16]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index fell slightly, and LME lead 3S rose. Domestic and LME lead inventory data and other market indicators were reported [17]. - **Strategy**: The profit of primary and secondary lead smelting is good, but raw material shortages limit lead ingot output. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has bottomed out and rebounded, and LME lead has been continuously destocking. Shanghai lead is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Spot market premiums were stable, and nickel ore prices were stable, while nickel iron prices accelerated their decline [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. If nickel prices fall enough or risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME nickel futures are provided [18]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin futures prices rose. The supply of tin was affected by the slow resumption of production in Myanmar, and the demand in emerging fields provided support [19][20]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to be relatively strong. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin futures are provided [21]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures price also rose. Domestic production increased slightly, and inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy**: The rise of lithium - battery stocks on Thursday had a strong impact on the futures market sentiment. The supply growth rate slowed down this week, and the inventory days continued to hit a new low. It is recommended to pay attention to the production schedule of lithium - battery materials in December and the change in the equity market atmosphere. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2601 contract is provided [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the unilateral trading volume decreased. The basis, overseas prices, and futures inventory data were reported [24]. - **Strategy**: Overseas ore shipments are gradually recovering after the rainy season, and the alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is provided [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel futures price rose, and the spot price was stable. The inventory decreased, and the supply was still under pressure [26]. - **Strategy**: The stainless - steel market continues to show a weak and oscillating trend, mainly affected by over - supply and weak demand. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [26]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose, and the weighted contract position decreased. The inventory of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has strong price support, while the demand is relatively average. The short - term price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [28]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures had different changes, and the spot prices were stable. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased [30]. - **Strategy**: The overall sentiment in the commodity market warmed up slightly yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and oscillating trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory risk of hot - rolled coil still exists. In the short term, prices are expected to continue the weak and oscillating trend, but demand may improve in the future [31]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore futures price fell slightly, and the spot price was stable. The Ximangduo iron ore project was officially put into operation, but the output increase is expected to be limited this year [32]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore decreased, and the demand increased marginally. The high inventory still suppresses prices. In the short term, ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillating range [33]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass futures price rose, and the inventory increased slightly. The soda - ash futures price rose, and the inventory decreased slightly [34][36]. - **Strategy**: The glass market has limited positive factors, and prices are expected to decline. The soda - ash industry has high supply and weak demand, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [35][37]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese - silicon futures price fell slightly, and the ferrosilicon futures price rose slightly. The prices are in an oscillating range [38]. - **Strategy**: In November, the pricing of the black sector has returned to fundamentals. The iron - water output has continued to decline, and steel demand is weak. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on rebounds. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and the operability of ferrosilicon is relatively low [39][40][41]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon futures price fell, and the polysilicon futures price rose. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak, and the supply of polysilicon is expected to decrease [42][44]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, and the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally. Attention should be paid to the authenticity of relevant news and risk control [43][46]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The expiration of November warehouse receipts led to positive market expectations. The start - up rate of tire factories was neutral, and inventory data were reported [48][49]. - **Strategy**: Currently, a neutral approach is recommended, with short - term trading and quick entry and exit. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [51]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude - oil futures price fell, and the prices of related refined - oil futures also fell. Singapore's oil - product inventory data were reported [52]. - **Strategy**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price was stable, and the basis and spread data were reported [54]. - **Strategy**: High port inventory continues to suppress prices. The supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price had different changes, and the basis and spread data were reported [55]. - **Strategy**: The market is sensitive to positive news. The domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. The price is expected to oscillate and bottom out [56]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene had different changes, and the supply - demand and inventory data were reported [57]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but the port inventory is being destocked. The price of styrene may stop falling periodically [58]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price rose, and the cost, supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [59]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [60]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene - glycol futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [61]. - **Strategy**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies [62]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of PTA rising driven by PXN in the medium term [64]. 3.4.9 Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [65][66]. - **Strategy**: The PX load remains high, and the inventory is expected to increase slightly in November. It is expected to mainly follow the trend of crude oil, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [67]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [68]. - **Strategy**: The PE price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The supply is limited, and the demand may improve seasonally [69]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [70]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and the demand has rebounded seasonally. The price is expected to be supported after the supply - surplus pattern changes in the first quarter of next year [71][72]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price continued to fall, and the demand was weak, but farmers' resistance to low - price sales was increasing [74]. - **Strategy**: In the future, the supply of live pigs is expected to be excessive, and the main strategy is to short on rallies. Currently, an inverse spread strategy is recommended, followed by shorting after rallies [75]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight decline, and the supply was sufficient while the demand was average [76]. - **Strategy**: The inventory of eggs is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading, and short on rallies in the medium term [77]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price rose slightly, and the domestic soybean inventory was at a high level. The soybean meal sales and pick - up were good [78]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybean meal is expected to oscillate. In the short term, soybean meal prices may follow the import cost, and in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [80]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production increased. The import of Indian palm oil and other oils decreased. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend [81]. - **Strategy**: The palm oil market is expected to oscillate. If there are signals of production decline, a long - position strategy can be adopted [82]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded, and the spot price was stable. The global sugar supply surplus is expected to decrease [83][85]. - **Strategy**: The import control of syrup and premixed powder has driven the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is still weak. It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [86]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate, and the spot price fell. The downstream demand was weak, and the开机率 of spinning mills decreased [87]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate due to weak demand and high supply [88].