金融期权 2025-09-25 金融期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金融期权策略早报概要： （1）股市短评：上证综指数、大盘蓝筹股、中小盘股和创业板股表现为多头方向上逐渐下降回落后反弹回升后高 位震荡的市场行情。 （2）金融期权波动性分析：金融期权隐含波动率逐渐上升至均值较高水平波动。 （3）金融期权策略与建议：对于ETF期权来说，适合构建偏多头的买方策略，认购期权牛市价差组合策略；对于股 指期权来说，适合构建偏多头的卖方策略、认购期权牛市价差组合策略和期权合成期货多头与期货空头做套利策略 。 表1：金融市场重要指数概况 | 重要指数 | 指数代码 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 额变化 | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each option variety's strategy report is compiled based on underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, percentage changes, trading volumes, volume changes, open interest, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, methanol, etc [4] 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - The volume - to - open - interest PCR indicators (volume PCR and open interest PCR) of various energy - chemical options are presented, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [5] 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various energy - chemical option underlying contracts are given, which are determined by the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [6] 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility indicators of various energy - chemical options are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, changes in weighted implied volatility, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [7] 3.3 Strategies and Suggestions 3.3.1 Energy - Type Options - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentally, OPEC may discuss early release of production cuts, and Russia has production cut plans. The market has been in a weak - to - range - bound state. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The PDH device maintenance situation is stable, and the market has shown an oversold - rebound pattern. Strategies involve constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.3.2 Alcohol - Type Options - **Methanol**: Port and enterprise inventories are at certain levels, and the market is weak. Strategies include constructing a bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory is expected to be in a low - level shock and then a build - up cycle. The market is weak. Strategies involve constructing a bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short - volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.3.3 Polyolefin - Type Options - **Polypropylene**: PE and PP inventories have different trends, and the market is weak. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] 3.3.4 Rubber - Type Options - **Rubber**: Affected by the Southeast Asian rubber - tapping season, the market is in a weak - consolidation state. Strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy [13] 3.3.5 Polyester - Type Options - **PTA**: Social inventory has a slight increase, and the market is weak. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [14] 3.3.6 Alkali - Type Options - **Caustic Soda**: Factory inventories are increasing, and the market is in a downward - shock state. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15] - **Soda Ash**: Factory inventories are decreasing, and the market is in a low - level shock state. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15] 3.3.7 Other Options - **Urea**: Enterprise inventory is high, and the market is in a low - level weak state. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [16] 3.4 Option Charts - The report provides price charts, volume - and - open - interest charts, volume - to - open - interest PCR charts, implied volatility charts, historical volatility cone charts, and pressure - and - support - level charts for various energy - chemical options such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, methanol, etc [17][36][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, construct a seller neutral volatility strategy as they are in a range - bound oscillation; for black metals, build a short - volatility portfolio strategy due to their large - amplitude fluctuations; for precious metals, establish a spot hedging strategy as they are rising and breaking upward [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Copper (CU2511) closed at 82,610, up 2,620 (3.28%), with a trading volume of 5.17 million lots (down 1.15 million) and an open interest of 17.24 million lots (down 0.09 million) [3] - Aluminum (AL2511) closed at 20,805, up 120 (0.58%), with a trading volume of 10.79 million lots (down 1.54 million) and an open interest of 22.13 million lots (down 0.41 million) [3] - Other metals such as zinc, lead, nickel, etc. also have detailed price, trading volume, and open - interest data [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - PCR indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For example, the open - interest PCR of copper was 0.84 (up 0.06), indicating some support below the price [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - For copper, the pressure level is 82,000 and the support level is 78,000; for aluminum, the pressure level is 20,800 and the support level is 20,000, etc. These levels are determined by the strike prices of the maximum open - interest call and put options [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of copper options was 13.14% (at - the - money), and the weighted implied volatility was 18.20% (down 0.01%). Other metals also have corresponding implied - volatility data [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Build a bull - spread call option strategy, a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [8] - **Aluminum/Alumina**: Build a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc/Lead**: Build a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: Build a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot covered - call strategy [10] - **Tin**: Build a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Build a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [11] 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Build a bull - spread call option strategy, a short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [12] 3.5.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: Build a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - covered - call strategy [13] - **Iron Ore**: Build a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [13] - **Ferroalloys**: Build a short - volatility strategy for manganese silicon; for industrial silicon/polysilicon, build a short - volatility call + put option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy; for glass, build a short - volatility call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [13][14][15]

五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属日报 2025-9-25 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 【策略观点】 美联储议息会议表态偏鹰，短期情绪面相对承压，但若降息进程推进，市场情绪预计不会明显受抑。 产业上看铜原料供应紧张预期再次强化，自由港公司因 Grasberg 矿山事故显著下调该矿山四季度和 2026 年产量。当前尽管旺季需求表现一般，不过长假临近下游仍有一定的备货需求。短期铜价预计 延续偏强。 铝 【行情资讯】 周三伦铝下探回升，收盘涨 0.32%至 2654 美元/吨，沪铝主力 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Protein Meal**: In the short - term, the domestic supply of soybeans has great pressure, and the temporary cancellation of export tax in Argentina drives soybean meal prices down. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of short - selling on rebounds. However, due to the low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the soybean meal market will fluctuate within a range [3][5]. - **Oils**: The low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the draft US biodiesel policy boosting soybean oil demand, and the expected decline in exportable volume of Indonesian biodiesel support the price center of oils. Oils are in a state of balanced or slightly loose current supply - demand and tight expected supply - demand, and are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - term. Currently, with high valuation, the strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Sugar**: Affected by factors such as high import volume in August and increased sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region, the overall trend of sugar prices is bearish. Technically, it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day holiday [11][12]. - **Cotton**: Although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the downstream industrial chain's operating rate growth is weak, and there is an expectation of increased domestic production in the far - month. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton prices are bearish, but low domestic cotton inventory and low prices may provide support, so short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [14][15]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is expected to decline. The near - month futures contract is weak, while the far - month contract is relatively strong due to the expected improvement in supply - demand and capital game. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [17][18]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price shows a slight accelerating downward trend. The futures market may continue to be weak in the short - term. The strategy is to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being aware of high - position risks [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Protein Meal - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, US soybeans declined slightly. Argentina temporarily cancelled export tax, which is negative for international soybean prices. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped slightly by about 10 yuan/ton, with good trading volume and high pick - up volume. Last week, domestic port soybean inventory decreased by 700,000 tons, and soybean meal inventory increased by 90,000 tons. This week, the expected soybean crushing volume is 2.39 million tons. The total scale of about $7 billion for soybeans, corn, and wheat corresponds to nearly 7 - 8 million tons of soybean products (converted to soybeans). Argentina's November soybean premium is about 100 cents per bushel lower than Brazil's [3]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the domestic supply pressure is large, and the cancellation of Argentina's export tax drives soybean meal prices down. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is loose, but due to low US soybean valuation and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the market will fluctuate within a range [5]. Oils - **Market Information**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, and production decreased by 3.17% compared with the same period last month. In July, Indonesia's palm oil exports decreased, production increased, inventory increased, and domestic consumption decreased. On Wednesday, domestic three major oils rebounded. The recent decline in oils was due to weak Malaysian palm oil exports and short - term price cuts in Argentina [7]. - **Strategy**: Supported by factors such as low inventory in India and Southeast Asian producing areas and the draft US biodiesel policy, oils are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - term. Currently, with high valuation, the strategy is to buy on dips [9]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The closing price of the January contract was 5,497 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton or 0.97% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. StoneX predicted that Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production in the 2026/27 season will reach 42.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [11]. - **Strategy**: Affected by high import volume and increased production in Brazil, the overall trend of sugar prices is bearish. Technically, it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day holiday [12]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the January contract was 13,555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. As of September 19, the spinning mill's operating rate was 66.6%, and the weaving mill's operating rate was 37.9%. As of September 21, the US cotton good - to - excellent rate was 47% [14]. - **Strategy**: Although it is the consumption peak season, the downstream operating rate growth is weak, and there is an expectation of increased production in the far - month. Short - term prices are bearish, but low inventory and low prices may provide support, so short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the national egg price was mainly stable, with a few rising or falling. The average price in the main producing areas remained at 3.62 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened, with general sales. Today's egg price may be stable or decline [17]. - **Strategy**: The spot price is expected to decline. The near - month futures contract is weak, while the far - month contract is relatively strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices showed a mixed trend. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.1 yuan to 12.78 yuan/kg. With sufficient supply of standard pigs and approaching the double - festival holiday, downstream stocking enthusiasm may gradually increase. Today's pig price may be stable or decline [20]. - **Strategy**: The current spot price shows a slight accelerating downward trend. The futures market may continue to be weak in the short - term. The strategy is to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being aware of high - position risks [21].

Group 1: Report Core View - In August, both the production and demand sides of the domestic economy faced pressure, but there were also structural highlights. The production side maintained some growth in high - value - added industries and policy - supported areas, but the overall growth rate declined due to the decline in external demand and production cuts in some industries. The consumption recovery process slowed down, and the demand overdraft effect of automobiles and durable consumer goods gradually emerged, with consumer confidence not effectively restored. The investment growth rate further slowed down, mainly dragged down by real estate and manufacturing investments. There is an increasing need for policy reinforcement, possibly focusing on promoting service consumption and accelerating the implementation of major projects to stimulate domestic demand and boost economic growth [2]. Group 2: August Overall Economic Operation Overview - In August, both supply and demand sides of the domestic economy weakened. The production side maintained some resilience driven by high - value - added industries and policy - supported areas, while the demand side was weak, with a slowdown in consumption recovery and a general decline in investment growth. The real estate industry had a more prominent drag effect. There were obvious differences within the service industry, and some industries related to consumption and business still faced recovery pressure. Overall, weak domestic and external demand and ineffective restoration of consumer confidence were the main constraints on economic recovery [5]. Group 3: Production Side - In August, the industrial added - value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, lower than the previous month and the seasonal level. Industries benefiting from policy support, such as railway transport equipment manufacturing, maintained strong growth. However, external demand pressure was obvious, with the export growth rate dropping from 7.2% in the previous month to 4.4%, and the export delivery value turning negative. Some upstream industries slowed down production expansion due to the "anti - involution" policy and cost pressure. The service production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year, also lower than the previous month. High - value - added industries like information technology and financial services grew rapidly, but the growth rate of the leasing and business service industry slowed down due to external demand uncertainty [6]. Group 4: Consumption Side - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, lower than the previous value. The consumption recovery process was affected by the gradual withdrawal of the "trade - in" subsidy policy, and the growth rate of automobile consumption slowed down. The growth rate of durable consumer goods such as home appliances and furniture also declined, reflecting the gradual emergence of the demand overdraft effect. Catering consumption was relatively strong, with the growth rate rising from the previous month. Overall, consumption was sluggish, income expectations were weak, and consumer confidence was not effectively restored. In terms of consumption structure, the growth rate of essential consumer goods slowed down, while some upgraded consumer goods showed certain growth resilience. Overall consumption power was insufficient, especially in the automobile and real - estate - related consumption fields [11]. Group 5: Investment Side - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was only 0.5%, lower than the previous month. Manufacturing investment was weak, mainly due to insufficient external demand and declining business confidence. Infrastructure investment, although supported by policies to some extent, continued to slow down due to factors such as capital constraints, seasonal construction factors, and project implementation lags. Real - estate investment remained in a slump, with an 12.9% year - on - year decline in August, and its drag effect on overall investment became more prominent. The weakness of manufacturing investment was affected by the "anti - involution" policy and the weakening effect of equipment renewal policies. Infrastructure investment was limited by the lag in capital implementation and extreme weather affecting construction progress. The real - estate market remained in an adjustment period, although policy relaxation in some cities might boost local market confidence [16]. Group 6: Demand - Side Policy - Given the current economic weakness, there is a further need for policy reinforcement. The growth rates of pro - cyclical demands such as exports, total retail sales of consumer goods, and manufacturing investment have declined, creating conditions for policy reinforcement. Policy reinforcement may focus on the demand side, especially promoting service consumption and accelerating the implementation of major projects to stimulate domestic demand recovery. Policy reinforcement may promote terminal demand growth, especially in the service consumption field. The appropriate advancement of major projects can support the investment side. In the manufacturing industry, policy reinforcement should focus on the demand side to drive overall manufacturing growth by promoting the consumption demand of high - value - added industries [23].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides an early morning strategy for agricultural product options, covering various agricultural product categories and providing corresponding strategies and suggestions [1][2] - The agricultural product sectors mainly include beans, oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, grains, and others. Each sector selects some varieties for option strategy analysis [8] Group 2: Market Overview Futures Market - For different agricultural product options, the report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open - interest changes of their underlying contracts. For example, the latest price of A2511 (soybean No.1) is 3,924, with a price increase of 34 and a price change percentage of 0.87% [3] Option Factors - **Volume and Open - Interest PCR**: It shows the volume and open - interest PCR of different options, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and whether the underlying market has a turning point. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.66, with a change of - 0.41, and the open - interest PCR is 0.49, with a change of 0.00 [4] - **Pressure and Support Levels**: From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interests of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of the option underlyings are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4000, and the support level is 3900 [5] - **Implied Volatility**: It includes the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities of different options. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.06, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.00, with a change of 0.11 [6] Group 3: Strategy and Suggestions Oilseed and Oil Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: In terms of fundamentals, in the 37th week of 2025, domestic full - sample oil mills received a total of 37 ships of soybeans, about 2.405 million tons. The market of soybean No.1 has shown a trend of narrowing decline, then rising, followed by a slight shock. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: For soybean meal, as of September 17, the previous week's national soybean meal transaction was 670,300 tons, a decrease of 211,000 tons from the previous week. Option strategies include constructing a bear - spread strategy for put options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic oil inventory is higher than last year, with a total increase of about 500,000 tons. Palm oil has shown a trend of high - level shock and then weakening. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Peanuts**: The price of imported peanuts was stable last week, with a significant decrease in import volume. The market has shown a weak shock trend. Option strategies include constructing a bear - spread strategy for put options and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Agricultural By - product Options - **Pigs**: Due to oversupply, the domestic pig price has accelerated its decline. The market has shown a weak shock trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered - call strategy for spot hedging [11] - **Eggs**: As of the end of August, the laying - hen inventory was 1.365 billion, higher than expected. The market has shown a weak and bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a bear - spread strategy for put options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [12] - **Apples**: As of September 17, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased by 45,900 tons to 163,200 tons. The market has shown a continuous upward trend. Option strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy [12] - **Red Dates**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 74 tons last week. The market has shown a large - amplitude shock trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased strangle option combination strategy and a covered - call strategy for spot hedging [13] Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: In the second half of August, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 10.68% year - on - year, and the sugar production increased by 18.21% year - on - year. The market has shown a weak and bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - **Cotton**: As of the week of September 19, the spinning mill's operating rate was 66.6%, and the cotton weekly commercial inventory decreased by 520,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The market has shown a short - term weak trend. Option strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered - call strategy for spot hedging [14] Grain Options - **Corn and Starch**: As of September 16, the corn auction volume was 4.98 million tons, with a transaction volume of 1.58 million tons and a transaction rate of 32%. The market has shown a weak and bearish shock trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the interest rate cut in the September FOMC meeting, the monetary policy statements of key Fed figures remain dovish. It is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals market. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 843 - 870 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.65% to 853.06 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) fell 0.52% to 10349.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold rose 0.06% to 3770.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver declined 0.20% to 44.11 dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.16%, and the US Dollar Index was 97.83 [2] - The US real - estate data released last night was strong, putting short - term pressure on gold and silver prices. However, key Fed officials' dovish statements suggest that the Fed is still on the path to a new round of easing [2] - The annualized value of new home sales in the US in August was 800,000 units, significantly higher than the expected 650,000 units and the previous value of 664,000 units [2] - Fed Chair Powell said the current interest rate stance is still slightly tight. He also mentioned that officials will review growth, employment, and inflation data and decide if policy adjustments are needed. Regarding the labor market, he thought the jobs created this summer were insufficient to meet the demand of job - seekers [2] - Fed Governor Bowman expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times in 2025. Given the weakened labor market, she believes the Fed will adjust policies more quickly and with larger magnitudes [2] 3.2 Strategy - After the September interest rate cut, with dovish statements from key Fed figures, it is recommended to buy precious metals on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 843 - 870 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [3] 3.3 Market Data - For gold: Au(T + D) closed at 856.27 yuan/gram, up 0.79%; London Gold closed at 3761.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.59%; SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 996.85 tons, down 0.37% [4] - For silver: Ag(T + D) closed at 10349.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.72%; London Silver closed at 43.88 dollars/ounce, down 1.02%; SLV Silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 15469.12 tons [4] - Other market indicators: The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose to 4.16%; the US Dollar Index rose 0.65% to 97.8657; major US stock indexes such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all declined [4] 3.4 Key Data of Gold and Silver - Gold: COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) was 3768.50 dollars/ounce, down 0.75%; trading volume was 232,500 lots, down 18.57%; open interest was 516,200 lots, up 1.29%; inventory was 1238 tons, up 0.16% [7] - Silver: COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) was 44.12 dollars/ounce, down 0.34%; open interest was 163,000 lots, up 3.99%; inventory was 16396 tons, up 0.08% [7]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - After a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors like AI have shown divergence, with funds switching between high - and low - level stocks and rapid rotation. Short - term index faces uncertainty, but in the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, so the idea is to go long on dips [4]. - In the bond market, considering the weak repair of domestic demand and the expected loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline, but in the short - term, it may be in a volatile pattern due to the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. - For precious metals, as the Fed's key figures still have a dovish monetary policy stance after the September interest - rate meeting, it is recommended to go long on dips [8]. - In the black sector, there is a short - term risk of downward correction, especially after the National Day holiday, but in the future, it may gradually have the cost - performance for long - term allocation, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [37]. Summaries by Catalog Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: It is expected that China's annual automobile sales will reach 40 million units during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period; six departments prohibit the addition of cement clinker and flat glass production capacity; Alibaba will cooperate with NVIDIA in Physical AI and plans to increase investment in AI infrastructure; the chip mania triggered by AI has spread to the storage chip field [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors like AI have shown divergence, and short - term index faces uncertainty, but in the long - term, it is advisable to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation, and the winning yields of the Ministry of Finance's 2 - period treasury bonds are lower than the valuation. The central bank conducted a 401.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 17 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in August continued to slow down. Although the central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds, the bond market may be volatile in the short - term, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Domestic and foreign gold and silver prices showed different trends. The US real estate data was strong, putting short - term pressure on precious metals, but the Fed's key figures had a dovish stance [7]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips for precious metals, with reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver given [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, LME copper rose significantly, and the supply - side disturbances stimulated the price. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic copper inventory also changed [10]. - **Strategy View**: Although the Fed's attitude is relatively hawkish in the short - term, if the interest - rate cut process advances, the market sentiment may not be significantly suppressed. Copper prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, LME aluminum rebounded, and the increase in copper prices drove the sentiment in the aluminum market. Domestic and foreign aluminum inventories changed, and the downstream procurement sentiment improved [12]. - **Strategy View**: Although the Fed's statement is not as dovish as expected, the aluminum price has strong support below and may rise in the short - term [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. The domestic and foreign zinc inventories changed, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots were negative [14][15]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc ore surplus has eased, and the Fed's monetary policy has cooled the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector. The Shanghai zinc is expected to be weak in the short - term [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index fell slightly. The domestic and foreign lead inventories decreased, and the price difference between refined and scrap lead was 75 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy View**: The raw material shortage restricts the production of primary lead, while the profit of recycled lead has improved. The domestic lead ingot inventory has decreased, and the Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short - term [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the nickel price fluctuated. The nickel ore and nickel iron prices were stable, and the price of MHP increased slightly [17]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the high inventory of refined nickel may drag down the nickel price, but in the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips, and the operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are given [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: On September 24, the Shanghai tin main contract rose. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the downstream demand was in the peak season [18]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance, and the tin price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the carbonate lithium continued to fluctuate. The price of the LC2511 contract decreased, and the spot price was stable [19]. - **Strategy View**: The current strong demand supports the bottom, but the supply recovery expectation suppresses the upside. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply, demand, and market sentiment [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On September 24, the alumina index rose. The domestic and foreign prices and inventories changed, and the import window opened [20]. - **Strategy View**: The ore price has short - term support, but the alumina production capacity is in excess. It is recommended to wait and see, and the operating range for the domestic main contract is given [21][22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract rose slightly. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic leading steel mills have a strong willingness to support prices, but the consumption has not improved significantly. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: As of Wednesday afternoon, the AD2511 contract rebounded. The inventory increased, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [25]. - **Strategy View**: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the price is under pressure due to the delivery pressure, and the support comes from the cost of scrap aluminum [26]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, while that of hot - rolled coil increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy View**: The commodity market was in a good mood, but the demand for steel was weak. If the demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the policy trends of the "Fourth Plenary Session" [29]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron - ore main contract rose slightly. The overseas iron - ore shipment decreased, the iron - water output increased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [30][31]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the iron - water output is still strong, and the iron - ore price is expected to be volatile. It is necessary to observe the downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction speed [31]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass main contract rose significantly. The inventory decreased, and the positions of long and short increased and decreased respectively [32]. - **Strategy View**: The policy and price increase of some enterprises pushed up the glass price, but the terminal demand was weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy and be bullish in the short - term [33]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda - ash main contract rose. The inventory decreased, and the positions of long and short changed [34]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic soda - ash market is stable, the production is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is flat. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the short - term [34]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On September 24, the main contracts of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rebounded. The spot prices were stable, and the price differences changed [35]. - **Strategy View**: The black sector may have a short - term downward correction risk, but in the long - term, it may be suitable for long - term allocation. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black - sector market [36][37]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon main contract rose. The weighted contract positions decreased, and the spot price was stable [38]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply - demand improvement and policy changes [39][40]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon main contract rose. The weighted contract positions decreased, and the spot price changed slightly [41]. - **Strategy View**: The polysilicon price is affected by policies and fundamentals. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and there is a risk of decline if expectations are not met [42]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Typhoon "Hagasa" is a positive factor, while the EU's delay in implementing anti - deforestation laws reduces positive factors. The operating rates of tire enterprises and the inventory of natural rubber changed [44][46]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term neutral or slightly bullish view, and go long on dips with quick entry and exit [48]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude - oil futures and related refined - oil futures rose. The gasoline inventory in Singapore increased, while the diesel, fuel - oil, and total refined - oil inventories decreased [49]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to be long on crude oil, as the current price is undervalued, and if the geopolitical premium reappears, the oil price may rise [50]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The prices of methanol in different regions and the main contract changed. The 1 - 5 price difference was in a low - level shock [51]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of methanol decreased, and the demand improved marginally, but the high inventory still suppresses the price. It is recommended to wait and see [52][53]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price of urea in Shandong was stable, while that in Henan decreased. The main contract price and price differences changed [54]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of urea increased, and the demand was weak. The urea price is expected to have no large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [54]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost, spot, and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply, demand, and inventory also changed [55]. - **Strategy View**: The BZN price difference is expected to repair, and it is recommended to go long on the pure - benzene US - South Korea price difference on dips [56]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose. The cost was stable, the production and demand changed, and the inventory increased [57]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of PVC is strong, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies [59]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract rose. The supply and demand loads decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [60]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go short on rallies, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [61]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract rose. The supply and demand loads decreased, and the inventory increased slightly [62]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of PTA has many unexpected maintenance situations, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [63]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract rose. The load of PX decreased, and the inventory decreased [64]. - **Strategy View**: The PX load is high, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation recovery [65]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract rose. The upstream operating rate increased, the inventory increased, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly [66]. - **Strategy View**: The PE price is expected to fluctuate upward, as the cost has support, and the demand may improve seasonally [67]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract rose. The upstream operating rate was stable, the inventory decreased in some places and increased in others, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of PP has pressure, and the demand is in a seasonal rebound. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [70]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig prices showed different trends. The supply of standard pigs is abundant, and the pig prices may be stable or decline today [72]. - **Strategy View**: The current spot price of pigs may decline slightly, and the futures price may continue to be weak. It is recommended to go short on the near - month contract and do reverse arbitrage [73]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mainly stable, with a few adjustments. The supply was stable, and the egg prices may be stable or decline today [74]. - **Strategy View**: The spot price of eggs is expected to decline, and the near - month futures price is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to buying the far - month contract after the price decline [75]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The US soybean price decreased slightly, and Argentina temporarily cancelled the export tax, which is negative for the international soybean prices. The domestic soybean meal price decreased slightly, and the inventory changed [76][77]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply of soybean meal has pressure, and the global soybean supply is loose. The soybean meal market is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [78]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export and production of Malaysian palm oil changed, and the export, production, and inventory of Indonesian palm oil also changed. The domestic three major oils rebounded [79]. - **Strategy View**: The oils and fats are expected to be strong in the medium - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes [80]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The spot prices of different regions were stable, and the production of the next crushing season in Brazil, Thailand, and India is expected to increase [81][82]. - **Strategy View**: The sugar price is expected to decline in the long - term, but it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [83]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The spot price decreased, and the inventory and operating rates of the downstream industry changed [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental situation will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [1]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are mixed. High inventory still suppresses the price, and the methanol trend is greatly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Urea**: The current valuation is relatively low, but there is a lack of driving factors in reality. It is expected that there will be no large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [6]. - **Rubber**: Adopt a long - term bullish view. In the short - term, it has stabilized, with a neutral or slightly bullish view. Consider short - term long positions on pullbacks and enter and exit quickly [14]. - **PVC**: The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and the export outlook is weakening. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies [17]. - **Styrene**: In the long - term, the BZN spread may recover. When the inventory drawdown inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound. It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [21]. - **Polyethylene**: The price may fluctuate upwards in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - **Polypropylene**: There is high inventory pressure in the short - term, and the short - term situation lacks prominent contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. - **PX**: The PX inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and there is currently a lack of driving factors. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. - **PTA**: The supply side has many unexpected short - term maintenance, and the overall load center is low. It is recommended to wait and see [34]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: In the fourth quarter, it will turn to inventory accumulation. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of the risk that the weak expectation is not realized [37]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE main crude oil futures rose 7.00 yuan/barrel, or 1.47%, to 482.30 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also showed gains. Singapore ESG oil product weekly data showed changes in gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil inventories [8]. - **Strategy Views**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC has increased production in a small amount, it is believed that this is a stress test on the market. The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The price in Taicang rose 18 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia rose 5 yuan/ton. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 8 yuan/ton to 2351 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 93. The 1 - 5 spread rose 4 to - 28 [2]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side start - up rate has declined, and the demand - side port olefin plants have restarted. The overall demand has improved marginally. However, the high inventory still suppresses the price, and the methanol trend is greatly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, while in Henan it fell 10 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market rose to 1673 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 73. The 1 - 5 spread rose 4 to - 51 [5]. - **Strategy Views**: The futures price has fallen with increasing positions. The domestic supply has recovered, and the demand is weak. The current valuation is relatively low, but there is a lack of driving factors. It is expected that there will be no large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Affected by Super Typhoon "Hagasa", there will be heavy rainfall in some Southeast Asian regions, which is clearly bullish. The EU has postponed the implementation of its anti - deforestation law, with a marginal reduction in bullish factors. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, and that of semi - steel tires was 74.58%. As of September 14, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 123.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons from the previous period [11][13]. - **Strategy Views**: Adopt a long - term bullish view. In the short - term, it has stabilized, with a neutral or slightly bullish view. Consider short - term long positions on pullbacks and enter and exit quickly [14]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 28 yuan to 4919 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 179 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 301 yuan/ton. The overall start - up rate of PVC was 77%, a decrease of 3% from the previous period. The demand - side downstream start - up rate was 49.2%, an increase of 1.7% from the previous period [16]. - **Strategy Views**: The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and the export outlook is weakening. Even though the downstream has improved recently, it is still difficult to change the pattern of oversupply. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies [17]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, while the futures price rose. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit decreased, but the styrene start - up rate continued to rise. The port inventory continued to decline significantly, and the demand - side overall start - up rate of three S products fluctuated upwards [20]. - **Strategy Views**: In the long - term, the BZN spread may recover. When the inventory drawdown inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound. It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closing price was 7142 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7160 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 44 yuan/ton, a weakening of 34 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 82.28%, an increase of 0.71% from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory and trader inventory both increased slightly [23]. - **Strategy Views**: The market is looking forward to favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance at the end of the third quarter, and there is still support on the cost side. The PE valuation has limited downward space, but the large number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history suppresses the futures price. The overall inventory is at a high level and is being reduced, and the seasonal peak season may be approaching. The price may fluctuate upwards in the long - term [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closing price was 6877 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6870 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 23 yuan/ton, a weakening of 27 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate remained unchanged at 75.43%. The production enterprise inventory decreased, the trader inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side still has 145 million tons of planned production capacity, with relatively high pressure. The demand - side downstream start - up rate has rebounded seasonally. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions. The large number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history suppresses the futures price [27]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 72 yuan to 6602 yuan. The PX CFR rose 9 dollars to 812 dollars. The PX load in China was 86.3%, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous period, and the Asian load was 78.2%, a decrease of 0.8% from the previous period. Some PX plants had maintenance or load adjustments. The PTA load was 75.9%, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous period [30]. - **Strategy Views**: The PX load remains at a high level, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a relatively low overall load center. The PTA new plant commissioning is expected to be postponed, and the PX maintenance is also postponed. The PX inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and there is currently a lack of driving factors. The PXN is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 70 yuan to 4626 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 55 yuan to 4525 yuan. The PTA load was 75.9%, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous period. Some PTA plants had maintenance, restart, or load reduction. The downstream load was 91.4%, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous period [33]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side has many unexpected short - term maintenance, and the de - stocking pattern continues. However, due to the weak long - term outlook, the processing fee space is limited. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure are low, but the terminal performance is weak, putting pressure on raw materials. It is recommended to wait and see [34]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 22 yuan to 4234 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 4 yuan to 4301 yuan. The supply - side domestic and overseas plant loads are at a high level, and the domestic supply is relatively high. The port inventory increased by 0.2 tons to 46.7 tons [36]. - **Strategy Views**: In the short - term, the port inventory is expected to be low due to less port arrivals. In the medium - term, with the concentrated arrival of imports and the expected high domestic load, combined with the gradual commissioning of new plants, the inventory will turn to accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is relatively high year - on - year. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the weak outlook, but beware of the risk that the weak expectation is not realized [37].