1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current market trading sentiment is cautious, and the volatile market remains unchanged. Fundamental factors continue to support the gold price. For silver, the tightening inventory supports the near - month price. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 1050 - 1250 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 19000 - 21000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 0.38% to 1119.74 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.54% to 20242.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.56% to 5050.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 1.88% to 80.69 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.16%, and the US dollar index was reported at 96.86 [1] - COMEX silver continued its recent strong de - stocking trend, with the total inventory continuously declining and approaching the 390 million - ounce mark (currently 390.466 million ounces), and the inventory decreased by about 4.0454 million ounces in a single day. Mainstream delivery warehouses continued to de - stock, leading to a tightening inventory and supporting the price of the near - month silver contract [2] 3.2 Data Comparison - The report provides a comparison of key gold and silver data on February 10, 2026, and February 9, 2026, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and precipitation funds of COMEX gold, LBMA gold, SHFE gold, AuT + D, COMEX silver, LBMA silver, SHFE silver, and AgT + D, as well as their daily changes, daily price change rates, and historical quantiles in the past year [5][6] 3.3 Charts - There are multiple charts in the report, including the relationship between COMEX gold price and US dollar index, actual interest rate, trading volume, and total open interest; the relationship between Shanghai gold price, trading volume, and total open interest; the near - far month structure of COMEX gold and Shanghai gold; the relationship between COMEX silver price, trading volume, and total open interest; the near - far month structure of COMEX silver and Shanghai silver; the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds and their prices; the total positions of gold and silver ETFs; and the internal - external price difference statistics and seasonality charts of gold and silver [11][26][40]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industries. 2. Core Views - **Macro - financial**: In the short - term, the divergence in US monetary policy expectations and the approaching Chinese Spring Festival have affected the market. But in the long - term, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. For stocks, it is recommended to buy on dips; for bonds, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate; for precious metals, maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4][6][9]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate. Factors such as policy expectations, supply and demand, and inventory levels affect their prices. For example, copper is affected by reserve policies and supply - demand patterns; aluminum is supported by low LME inventory; zinc may be affected by macro sentiment; lead's price stability depends on post - holiday downstream restocking; nickel is under fundamental pressure; tin has supply - demand marginal relaxation; lithium carbonate has uncertain supply - demand after the holiday; alumina is affected by mine strikes and supply overcapacity; stainless steel is supported by fundamentals; and cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost and supply - side factors [12][14][17][18][20][21][22][24][26][28]. - **Black building materials**: The black building materials sector is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors. Steel products are affected by domestic real - estate policies and overseas monetary policies, and are expected to fluctuate weakly. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply and demand and inventory factors. Coking coal and coke may face short - term price pressure and potential long - term upward trends. Glass and soda ash are expected to continue to fluctuate, with glass lacking demand support and soda ash having weak demand. Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron are affected by market sentiment and cost factors. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a supply - demand double - weak situation [31][33][36][37][40][42][45][49][51]. - **Energy and chemicals**: For rubber, it is recommended to reduce risks before the Spring Festival. Crude oil should be taken profit at high prices and mid - term layout should be the main strategy. Methanol should be observed in the short - term. Urea should be short - sold. For pure benzene and styrene, profits can be gradually taken. PVC has a poor fundamental situation. Ethylene glycol has a high inventory pressure. PTA and p - xylene have good mid - term prospects. Polyethylene and polypropylene are affected by supply and demand and cost factors [56][58][61][63][65][68][70][73][75]. - **Agricultural products**: For live pigs, short - term selling on rebounds is recommended, while long - term support should be noted. For eggs, short - term short - selling is recommended, and the long - term situation depends on capacity reduction. For soybean and rapeseed meal, prices are expected to fluctuate. For oils and fats, mid - term bullishness is expected, and buying on dips is recommended. For sugar, wait for the international price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. For cotton, there is potential for long - term price increase, and low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival should be considered [83][85][88][90][94][97]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The central bank will continue the moderately loose monetary policy. SMC's Q4 revenue increased by 4.5% quarter - on - quarter, with a gross margin of 19.2% and a capacity utilization rate of 95.7%. Byte released a new image - generation model. The National Development and Reform Commission promotes the integration of bidding and AI [2]. - **Strategy**: Due to the divergence in US monetary policy expectations and the approaching Spring Festival, the market risk appetite is suppressed. In the long - term, policy support remains, so the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The central bank will continue the moderately loose monetary policy and conducted a net injection of 2059 billion yuan through reverse repurchase [5]. - **Strategy**: The central bank's policy indicates a loose capital situation. However, the economic recovery foundation is not solid, and the demand is weak. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices in domestic and international markets declined. The inflation expectations in the US decreased, and the retail sales were stagnant. COMEX silver inventory decreased [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is cautious, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Fundamentals support the price of gold, and the tight inventory supports the near - month price of silver. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: US retail sales data affected copper prices. LME and domestic copper inventories changed, and the import was at a loss [11]. - **Strategy**: Policies and economic data support the sentiment. The supply of copper ore is tight, but the short - term supply is sufficient. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: The market volatility decreased before the holiday. Aluminum prices adjusted due to production cuts in Mozambique. Domestic and LME aluminum inventories changed [13]. - **Strategy**: Domestic inventory accumulates, but LME inventory is low. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate [14]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot changed. The inventory increased, and the import was at a loss [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The inventory accumulation of zinc ore slows down, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory accumulates. The industry is weak, but macro sentiment may drive the price up [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot changed. The inventory increased, and the import had a profit [18]. - **Strategy**: The lead ore inventory is high, and the smelter's operating rate decreases seasonally. The price stability depends on post - holiday restocking [18]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices declined slightly. The spot premium and cost remained stable [19]. - **Strategy**: There is a short - term rebound demand, but the fundamentals are under pressure. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [20]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices fluctuated narrowly. The supply was restricted by raw materials, and the demand was weak [21]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may rebound with precious metals, but the short - term supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate increased slightly [22]. - **Strategy**: The pre - holiday capital is cautious. The future supply - demand is uncertain. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [22]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The alumina index declined. The basis and inventory changed [23]. - **Strategy**: The mine strike in Guinea needs attention, and the supply overcapacity persists. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The price of stainless - steel futures increased slightly. The spot price remained stable, and the inventory increased [26]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is controllable, and the fundamentals are supported. It is recommended to buy on dips [26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy futures declined slightly. The inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost increases, and the supply - side factors support the price [28]. Black building materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined. The inventory and position changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a bottom - game stage, affected by domestic and overseas factors. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [31]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The price of iron - ore futures remained unchanged. The spot price and basis were reported [32]. - **Strategy**: The overseas shipment decreased, the demand was affected by equipment failure, and the inventory was high. Iron - ore prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke futures declined. The spot prices and basis were reported [34]. - **Strategy**: Overseas coal disturbances affect sentiment, and the short - term price upward drive is weak. There may be a long - term upward trend, but beware of post - holiday price corrections [36][37][39]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures declined. The inventory and position changed [40][41]. - **Strategy**: Glass lacks demand support, and soda ash has weak demand. Both are expected to continue to fluctuate [40][42]. - **Manganese - silicon and Silicon - iron** - **Market Information**: The price of manganese - silicon futures increased slightly, and that of silicon - iron futures decreased slightly [43]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment and cost factors affect the prices. Pay attention to potential cost - driven events [44][45]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures declined. The supply and demand changed [46][50]. - **Strategy**: Both are in a supply - demand double - weak situation. Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate [49][51]. Energy and chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: Rubber prices followed the market to rebound. The tire - enterprise operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased [53][54]. - **Strategy**: Reduce risks before the Spring Festival. Trade short - term on the disk and set stop - losses [56]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: The prices of crude - oil and refined - oil futures increased. The inventory of crude oil and refined oil changed [57]. - **Strategy**: Take profit at high prices and focus on mid - term layout [58]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed slightly [59]. - **Strategy**: The current price has factored in many negative factors. Observe in the short - term [61]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea changed [62]. - **Strategy**: The import window is open, and the fundamentals are bearish. Short - sell [63]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [64]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired. Gradually take profits [65]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The price of PVC futures declined. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory changed [66][67]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. Pay attention to the changes in capacity and operation [68]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene - glycol futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [69]. - **Strategy**: The inventory pressure is high, and there is a need for production reduction. There is a risk of rebound [70]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The price of PTA futures increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [71]. - **Strategy**: Enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. Pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities [73]. - **p - Xylene** - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene futures increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [74]. - **Strategy**: The inventory is expected to increase before the maintenance season. Pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities following crude oil [75]. - **Polyethylene (PE) and Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The prices of PE and PP futures increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [76][78]. - **Strategy**: PE's valuation has room to decline, and PP's price may bottom out. For PP, buy on dips for the 5 - 9 spread [77][80]. Agricultural products - **Live Pigs** - **Market Information**: The domestic pig prices continued to decline [82]. - **Strategy**: Short - term selling on rebounds, and note the long - term support [83]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable with a few declines [84]. - **Strategy**: Short - term short - selling, and the long - term depends on capacity reduction [85]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal futures increased slightly. The supply and demand situation changed [86][87]. - **Strategy**: The prices are expected to fluctuate [88]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: The prices of oil futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [89][90]. - **Strategy**: Mid - term bullish, buy on dips [90]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures increased slightly. The supply and demand situation changed [91][93]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the international price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. Observe domestically [94]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures increased slightly. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [95][96]. - **Strategy**: Short - term high - level fluctuations, long - term potential for increase. Look for low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival [97].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current black series is in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it will mainly operate in a weak range - bound oscillation, and the trend opportunity is not clear. Attention should be paid to inventory changes around the Spring Festival, the recovery of plate demand, and possible marginal adjustments to "dual - carbon" policies [2]. - For iron ore, it is expected to oscillate weakly before the festival. Attention should be paid to overseas ore shipments and the domestic hot - metal production rhythm [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, in the long - term, the bullish trend of commodities may continue, but short - term market sentiment is affected by the adjustment of precious metals. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - supply factors. Attention should be paid to possible changes in manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. - For coking coal and coke, in the long - term, the bullish trend of commodities may continue, but in the short term, the market is affected by precious metals. The short - term upward catalytic force is not strong, and there may be a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival. It is expected to rise smoothly from June to October [15][16]. - For industrial silicon, it shows a pattern of weak supply and demand in February. It is expected to be weakly oscillating before the festival, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [19][20]. - For polysilicon, the supply is decreasing, the demand is stable, and the high inventory is expected to be slightly reduced. The futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to post - festival demand and spot prices [22]. - For glass, it is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton [25]. - For soda ash, it is expected to continue to operate weakly, with the reference range of the main contract being 1140 - 1200 yuan/ton [27]. Summary by Directory Steel Products 1. Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3052 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.39%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 15710 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 2.0655 million lots, an increase of 60036 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3150 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3220 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Near the Spring Festival, both the supply and demand of rebar have shown obvious seasonal declines, and the inventory has entered the accumulation stage, but the overall inventory accumulation range is still controllable [2]. 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3220 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (- 0.58%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 253200 tons, an increase of 9424 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.5428 million lots, an increase of 43035 lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3240 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively stable, the output has decreased slightly, the inventory has accumulated slightly, and the supply - demand structure is generally neutral [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 761.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.00% (+ 0.00). The position changed by + 556 lots to 513900 lots. The weighted position was 878500 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 767 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.70 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.47% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipments have decreased significantly. The near - end arrivals have decreased. The daily hot - metal output is lower than expected, and the port inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. It is expected to oscillate weakly before the festival, and attention should be paid to overseas ore shipments and the domestic hot - metal production rhythm [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On February 10, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed up 0.10% at 5818 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 92 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed down 0.25% at 5580 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 120 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the long - term, the bullish trend of commodities may continue, but short - term market sentiment is affected by the adjustment of precious metals. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - supply factors. Attention should be paid to possible changes in manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: On February 10, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 2.445% at 1119.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1550.6 yuan/ton, with a basis of 241 yuan/ton; the medium - sulfur main coking coal was 1270 yuan/ton, with a basis of 134 yuan/ton; the Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1227 yuan/ton, with a basis of 83 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 2.26% at 1665.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, with a basis of 60.5 yuan/ton; the quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, with a basis of 101 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the long - term, the bullish trend of commodities may continue, but in the short term, the market is affected by precious metals. The short - term upward catalytic force is not strong, and there may be a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival. It is expected to rise smoothly from June to October [15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 1. Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8375 yuan/ton, down 0.89% (- 75). The weighted contract position increased by 12176 lots to 418432 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - passed industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 825 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 475 yuan/ton [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It shows a pattern of weak supply and demand in February. It is expected to be weakly oscillating before the festival, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [19][20]. 2. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 48950 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (- 420). The weighted contract position decreased by 183 lots to 65828 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, the N - type dense material was 52.75 yuan/kg, and the N - type re - feeding material was 53.65 yuan/kg, all with no change. The basis was 4700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is decreasing, the demand is stable, and the high inventory is expected to be slightly reduced. The futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to post - festival demand and spot prices [22]. Glass and Soda Ash 1. Glass - **Market Information**: On Tuesday at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1070 yuan/ton, down 0.74% (- 8). The North China large - plate price was 1030 yuan, and the Central China price was 1110 yuan, both with no change. On February 5, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 53.064 million boxes, an increase of 0.5 million boxes (+ 0.95%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 20888 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 612 short positions [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton [25]. 2. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: On Tuesday at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1171 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (- 10). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1121 yuan, a decrease of 9 yuan. On February 5, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5811 million tons, an increase of 36900 tons (+ 0.95%), including 746100 tons of heavy soda ash, an increase of 30000 tons, and 835000 tons of light soda ash, an increase of 6900 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased 10237 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 28617 short positions [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to continue to operate weakly, with the reference range of the main contract being 1140 - 1200 yuan/ton [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes the harvest in February and the negative impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited, so it is advisable to wait and see [4]. - For cotton, in the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuate widely at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, due to the reduction of planting area and positive macro expectations, cotton prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices before the Spring Festival [8]. - For protein meal, the expectation of China's increased purchase of US soybeans drives the rise of US soybean prices. In the short - term, domestic protein meal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [12]. - For oils, in the medium - term, oil prices are bullish as the growth of oil consumption exceeds the production growth under the promotion of biodiesel policies. In the short - term, oil prices fluctuate at high levels, and it is advisable to wait for a correction to buy [16]. - For eggs, during the inventory accumulation period around the Spring Festival, the spot price is likely to fall. The near - month contract may need to squeeze out the premium, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. The long - term logic of capacity reduction has uncertainties, and attention should be paid to the pressure after the price rises [19]. - For pigs, the short - term outlook is pessimistic due to large supply and inventory accumulation. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended. In the long - term, pay attention to the downside support after the price decline [22]. Summary by Commodity Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price showed a strong - side oscillation. The closing price of the May contract was 5,278 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2]. - From the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to the first half of January, the cumulative sugar production in the central - south region of Brazil was 40.23 million tons, an increase of 345,000 tons year - on - year. As of the week of February 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 49, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5644 million tons [3]. - StoneX expects a surplus of 2.9 million tons in the global sugar market in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8% [3]. - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, the cumulative import of sugar was 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons [3]. Strategy - Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the harvest in February. After the negative impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited, so it is advisable to wait and see [4]. Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,655 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton or 0.51% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,988 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton [6]. - As of the week of January 30, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week [6]. - From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons. The export to China was 8,800 tons, and the cumulative export was 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons [6][7]. - The USDA's January forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous year [7]. Strategy - In the short - term, affected by the large fluctuations in the commodity market, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuate widely at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, due to the reduction of planting area and positive macro expectations, cotton prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices before the Spring Festival [8]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, the protein meal futures price oscillated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2,734 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2,244 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous trading day [10]. - Trump said that China agreed to increase the purchase of US soybeans from 12 million tons to 20 million tons this season. StoneX estimates that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record high of 181 million tons [11]. - As of January 31, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 99.6%, and the harvesting rate was 11.4%. From January 30 to February 6, the domestic sample soybean arrival volume was 1.56 million tons, and the soybean port inventory was 5.91 million tons [11]. Strategy - The expectation of China's increased purchase of US soybeans drives the rise of US soybean prices. In the short - term, domestic protein meal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [12]. Oils Market Information - On Tuesday, the oil futures price oscillated. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8,098 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8,940 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton or 0.82% from the previous trading day [14]. - It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, exports were 1.42 million tons, and inventory was 2.89 million tons. The US Treasury Department released new guidance on biofuel tax credits [14][15]. - From January 30 to February 6, the domestic sample data showed that the inventory of the three major oils increased slightly by 30,000 tons to 1.92 million tons [15]. Strategy - In the medium - term, oil prices are bullish as the growth of oil consumption exceeds the production growth under the promotion of biodiesel policies. In the short - term, oil prices fluctuate at high levels, and it is advisable to wait for a correction to buy [16]. Eggs Market Information - Most of the national egg prices were stable, and a few declined. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.05 yuan to 3.33 yuan/jin. As the Spring Festival approaches, market demand will gradually weaken, and trading volume will gradually shrink [18]. Strategy - During the inventory accumulation period around the Spring Festival, the spot price is likely to fall. The near - month contract may need to squeeze out the premium, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. The long - term logic of capacity reduction has uncertainties, and attention should be paid to the pressure after the price rises [19]. Pigs Market Information - The domestic pig price continued to decline. The average price in Henan dropped 0.27 yuan to 11.82 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.09 yuan to 10.8 yuan/kg. The pig market supply remains loose, and the bearish sentiment persists [21]. Strategy - The short - term outlook is pessimistic due to large supply and inventory accumulation. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended. In the long - term, pay attention to the downside support after the price decline [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short - term, the supply gap from Iran still exists, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and the main operation idea is mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a considerable number of negative factors. There is still a probability of short - term fluctuations due to overseas geopolitics. The previous short positions should be taken profit, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [5]. - For urea, the import window has been opened due to the current situation of internal and external price differences, and combined with the expected production start - up recovery at the end of January, the fundamental negative expectation of urea is coming, so short positions are recommended [8]. - For rubber, near the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce the risk level and focus on risk prevention. Short - term trading according to the disk, setting stop - losses, and quick in - and - out operations are suggested. During the Spring Festival, it is recommended not to hold single - side positions, and hedge by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [13]. - For PVC, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral to low level. The supply reduction is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand is in the off - season, and the demand is under pressure. The export tax rebate cancellation has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. In general, the domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the follow - up changes in production capacity and start - up should be concerned [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The cost - side pure benzene production starts to rebound from a low level, and the supply is still abundant. The port inventory of styrene continues to accumulate. It is recommended to gradually take profit as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and the PE valuation still has downward space. The coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, which supports the price. In the off - season, the raw material inventory of agricultural films may reach the peak, and the overall start - up rate fluctuates downward [23]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may ease. There is no production capacity investment plan in the first half of 2026, and the pressure is relieved. The downstream start - up rate fluctuates seasonally. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led decline to production investment mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [26]. - For PX, the PX load remains at a high level, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. It is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The valuation center has risen, and the short - process profit is also high. The supply - demand structure of PX and downstream PTA is strong after the Spring Festival, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long following the crude oil price [29]. - For PTA, the supply side maintains high - level maintenance in the short - term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is limited by the off - season and the load gradually decreases. PTA enters the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. The PTA processing fee is expected to remain stable at a high level, and there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Mid - term, look for opportunities to go long at low levels [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory accumulation pressure is large due to the off - season of downstream demand. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high start - up. The current valuation is moderately low year - on - year. There is a risk of rebound due to the tense situation in Iran and the rebound of coal prices [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 10.10 yuan/barrel, a 2.17% increase, at 476.10 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 60.00 yuan/ton, a 2.15% increase, at 2845.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 53.00 yuan/ton, a 1.63% increase, at 3306.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory decreased by 1.43 million barrels to 199.82 million barrels, a 0.71% decrease; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.95 million barrels to 97.01 million barrels, a 2.05% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 1.93 million barrels to 98.87 million barrels, a 2.00% increase; the total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 3.89 million barrels to 195.88 million barrels, a 2.02% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices changed as follows: Jiangsu changed by 2 yuan/ton, Lunan by 20 yuan/ton, Henan by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 45 yuan/ton. The main futures contract remained unchanged at 2241 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 6 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices changed as follows: Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 30 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 10 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 30 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 1785 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market fluctuated and consolidated following the commodity market. The bulls believed in an increase due to macro - bullish expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while the bears thought the market would decline due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 60.94%, 1.47 percentage points lower than last week but 40.93 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.42%, 1.93 percentage points lower than last week but 44.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.1 tons, a 0.9 - ton increase and a 0.7% increase. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 1.09 tons to 59.12 tons, an 1.88% increase. In the spot market, the Thai standard mixed rubber was 15200 (+150) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1945 (+20) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1945 (+20) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 10100 (0) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 12200 (- 100) yuan [10][11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract decreased by 21 yuan to 4971 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4730 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 241 (- 9) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 117 (0) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide in Wuhai was quoted at 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 695 (0) US dollars/ton, and caustic soda was 588 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.3% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method was 75.5%, a 0.5% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a 3.3% decrease. The factory inventory was 28.8 tons (- 0.2), and the social inventory was 122.7 tons (+2.1) [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 5995 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease; the pure benzene active contract closed at 6034 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease; the pure benzene basis was - 39 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan decrease. In the spot - futures market, the styrene spot price was 7700 yuan/ton, a 75 - yuan decrease; the styrene active contract closed at 7473 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan increase; the basis was 227 yuan/ton, a 110 - yuan decrease; the BZN spread was 166.12 yuan/ton, a 1.75 - yuan increase; the EB non - integrated device profit was - 134.05 yuan/ton, a 79.75 - yuan increase; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, a 0.68% increase; the Jiangsu port inventory was 10.86 tons, a 0.80 - ton increase. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.79%, a 0.23% increase; the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a 0.40% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, a 2.98% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a 1.70% decrease [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6775 yuan/ton, a 54 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 100 yuan/ton, a 54 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a 0.27% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 tons, a 5.67 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 2.32 tons, a 0.23 - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 33.73%, a 4.03% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 51 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton, a 58 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 13 yuan/ton, an 83 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a 0.01% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 tons, a 1.49 - ton increase, the trader inventory was 18.32 tons, a 0.02 - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 6.37 tons, a 0.03 - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 49.84%, a 2.24% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 87 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease, and the PP5 - 9 spread was - 19 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan increase [24][25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 28 yuan to 7220 yuan, PX CFR increased by 9 US dollars to 909 US dollars. The basis was - 31 yuan (+47), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 88 yuan (+10). The PX load in China was 89.5%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 82.4%, a 0.8% increase. In terms of devices, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical was increasing the load, and Fujian United Petrochemical's load fluctuated. The PTA load was 77.6%, a 1% increase. In terms of devices, Sichuan Energy Investment was restarting, Dushan Energy was under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton device in Taiwan was under maintenance. In January, South Korea exported 40.8 tons of PX to China, a 2.5 - ton decrease year - on - year. In December, the inventory was 465 tons, a 19 - ton increase month - on - month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 302 US dollars (+7), South Korea's PX - MX was 139 US dollars (- 2), and the naphtha crack spread was 91 US dollars (- 12) [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 38 yuan to 5230 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 25 yuan to 5140 yuan. The basis was - 75 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan (+20). The PTA load was 77.6%, a 1% increase. In terms of devices, Sichuan Energy Investment was restarting, Dushan Energy was under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton device in Taiwan was under maintenance. The downstream load was 78.2%, a 6% decrease. In terms of devices, Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament was restarting, and 475,000 - ton chemical fiber devices such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong were under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom load decreased by 24% to 9%. On January 30, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 211.6 tons, a 3.3 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 18 yuan to 366 yuan, and the disk processing fee increased by 26 yuan to 436 yuan [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 6 yuan to 3733 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 12 yuan to 3623 yuan. The basis was - 110 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 108 yuan (+2). The ethylene glycol load was 76.2%, a 1.8% increase, among which the syngas - based production was 76.8%, a 4.3% decrease, and the ethylene - based load was 75.9%, a 5.4% increase. In terms of syngas - based devices, Wonen was shut down and expected to restart in the short - term, Guanghui was shut down and the restart was to be determined, and Sinochem had a load reduction due to an accident. In terms of petrochemical, Zhongke Refining and Chemical and Sinochem Quanzhou were restarting. Overseas, China Taiwan's Zhongxian was shut down, and Saudi Arabia's Sharq2 was restarting. The downstream load was 78.2%, a 6% decrease. In terms of devices, Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament was restarting, and 475,000 - ton chemical fiber devices such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong were under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom load decreased by 24% to 9%. The import arrival forecast was 18.1 tons (two weeks), and the East China departure was 1.5 tons on February 9. The port inventory was 93.5 tons, a 3.8 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based profit was - 1252 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 710 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 24 yuan. The cost - side ethylene decreased to 695 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam coal price decreased to 580 yuan [33].

【行情资讯】 贵金属日报 2026-02-10 贵金属 贵金属研究 图 1：金银重点数据汇总 沪金涨 1.00 %，报 1127.00 元/克，沪银涨 5.24 %，报 20934.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 2.10 %， 报 5084.20 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 8.00 %，报 83.05 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.22 %，美元指数报 96.88 ； 周初贵金属市场整体维持高位震荡格局，延续此前大幅下跌后的修复行情。市场普遍定价美联 储 6 月降息预期为金价提供了核心基本面支撑。在美国就业数据表现偏弱的背景下，上周五博 斯蒂克表态称，需等待 4-5 月经济数据出炉后才能释放更明确的政策信号。白银则受紧俏的 库存与现货支撑，近月合约价格仍具备韧性。当前市场焦点集中于本周三公布的美国非农就业 报告，以及周五发布的消费者物价指数。 美联储理事米兰 2 月 10 日表态：财政端，其主张投资全额费用化以刺激资本支出，认为关税 有助于改善美国财政，支持在困难时期动用资产负债表；货币端，强调央行的相对独立性，认 为联储的货币政策应与商业周期相匹配，且需远离非货币问题，并暗示关税 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-02-10 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【策略观点】 昨日商品市场整体情绪恢复，成材价格向下试探。海外方面，天气影响基本消除，铁矿石发运影响基本消 除。临近春节，螺纹钢供需两端均出现明显的季节性回落，库存进入累积阶段，但整体累库幅度仍处于可 控范围；热轧卷板需求相对稳健，产量小幅下降，库存小幅累积，供需结构整体偏中性。综合来看，当前 黑色系仍处于多空因素交织的底部博弈阶段。一方面，国内房地产政策基调延续边际缓和，对需求预期形 成一定托底；另一方面，海外货币政策不确定性上升，市场风险偏好阶段性回落，对商品价格形成扰动。 短期内黑色系仍以区间弱势震荡运行为主，趋势性机 ...

橡胶：引发商品大涨的原因仍会持续吗？ 报告要点： 专题报告 2026-02-10 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F0270766 引发商品大涨的宏观因素，在下一阶段大概率仍将持续。 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-23982459 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 张正华 能源化工研究 | 橡胶 引发商品大涨的原因仍会持续吗？ 前期橡胶跟随商品大盘上涨，背后的宏观因素为主要上涨驱动。 我们试图梳理这些上涨驱动因素，并分析是否在下一阶段中影响是否将继续持续。 美国政府（特朗普）在加拿大和格陵兰的言论与行动 一、美国对加拿大的言行 （一）美国核心言论 2025 年 3 月：特朗普多次宣称美国对加拿大主权问题的争议性言论。 2026 年 1 月 29 日：特朗普威胁如果加拿大不立即解决对美国湾流飞机颁发许可 的问题，将对加拿大向美国出口的飞机征收 50% 关税。 2026 年 2 月 1 日：白宫威胁如果加拿大推进与中国谈判达成的贸易协议，美国将 进行 "重大回应"。 （二）美国主要行动 2025 年 1 月 20 日：特朗普签署行政令，考虑对墨西哥和加拿大征收 25% 关税， 征税行动可能从 2 月 1 日起实施 ...

文字早评 2026/02/10 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、美股纳指收涨近 1%，贵金属连续两日反弹，稀土主流产品价格整体上行； 2、赛博无人驾驶电动车 Tesla Cybercab 将在得州超级工厂开启量产并投入运营；小马智行联合丰田， 首台量产铂智 4X Robotaxi 下线； 3、智光电气签订 10.04 亿元储能系统买卖合同，源杰科技拟 12.51 亿元投建光电通讯半导体芯片和器 件研发生产项目； 4、字节 AI 视频生成模型发布，阿里、百度、快手、百度已发布 AI 应用产品，后续还有 DS V4、Qwen3.5、 豆包 2.0 等。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-4.54%/-0.48%/3.40%/4.07%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-7.08%/-0.04%/6.66%/6.11%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-16.33%/0.15%/11.94%/9.80%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-3.57%/-0.76%/0.52%/2.56%。 【策略观点】 贵金属 近日美国货币政策预期分歧加剧，压制资本市场风险偏好，美股、贵金属波动加剧；国内临 ...

有色金属日报 2026-2-10 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 贵金属延续上涨，隔夜美股偏强，铜价继续反弹，昨日伦铜 3M 收盘涨 0.96%至 13185 美元/吨，沪 铜主力合约收至 102450 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 1025 至 184300 吨，增量来自亚洲仓库，注销仓单 比例抬升，C ...