大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 09 月 09 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3411 | 3387 | 24 | 01-05 | -73 | -78 | 5 | | JD05 | 3484 | 3465 | 19 | 05-09 | 434 | 370 | 64 | | JD09 | 3050 | 3095 | -45 | 09-01 | -361 | -292 | -69 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.56 | 1.54 | 0.02 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.11 | 1.10 | 0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.55 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 9 月 9 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | - | - | - | | | - | - | - | - | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | - | - | - | -180 | 宁夏 | | - | - | - | -20 | 宁夏 | | - | - | 180 | 0 | 广西 | | - | - | 0 | -20 | 青海 | | - | -100 | -50 | -80 | 天津 | | - | 350 | 350 | 330 | 天津 | | 天津 - 50 | 广西 -50 | 宁夏 150 | 内蒙古 -30 | 内蒙古 江苏 | 硅锰 | 天津 -240 | 青海 150 | 宁夏 150 | 内蒙古 130 | 内蒙古 江苏 | 数据来源：银河期货、 ...

油脂日报 2025 年 9 月 9 日 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/9/9 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8408 | (8) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8618 | | | | 8728 | 8558 | 320 | 0 | 210 | 0 | 150 | 10 | | 棕榈油 | 9486 | 20 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 9416 | | | | 9516 | 9606 | -70 | -40 ...

研究员：周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属早报 2025 年 09 月 09 日 银河投研黑色与有色 1.8 月中国钢材出口 951 万吨，较上月下降 32.6 万吨，环比下降 3.3%。1-8 月累计 钢材出口 7749 万吨，同比增长 10%。 2.海关总署：2025 年前 8 个月，我国货物贸易延续平稳增长态势，进出口总值 29.57 万亿元人民币，同比增长 3.5%。其中，出口 17.61 万亿元，增长 6.9%；进口 11.96 万亿元，下降 1.2%，降幅较前 7 个月收窄 0.4 个百分点。 现货价格：网价上海地区螺纹 3260 元（-），北京地区 3190（-），上海地区热卷 3390 元（+10），天津地区热卷 3310 元（-10）。 【逻辑分析】 昨日夜盘黑色板块依然维持震荡走势，8 日建筑钢材成交为 11.27 万吨。上周钢联 数据公布，受到阅兵影响，钢材大幅减产；而华北部分需求同样受到影响，钢材库累 库速度加快，螺纹表需小幅下滑，但热轧表需大幅走弱。主要因为阅兵影响下唐山周 边工地有所停工，钢厂运输停滞， ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 09 月 09 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 805.0 | 792.0 | 13.0 | I01-I05 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 0.0 | | DCE05 | 781.0 | 768.0 | 13.0 | I05-I09 | -69.0 | -82.0 | 13.0 | | DCE09 | 850.0 | 850.0 | 0.0 | I09-I01 | 45.0 | 58.0 | -13.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 773 | 770 | 3 | 842 | 42 | 66 | -16 | | 纽曼粉 | 780 | 777 | 3 | 834 | 34 | 58 | -24 | | 麦克粉 | 771 | 771 | 0 | 837 | 37 | 61 | ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 第二部分 行情研判 玉米： 美玉米反弹，后期可能下调美玉米单产，美玉米仍有反弹空间。中国对美玉米回 到 15%关税，配额内共计 26%关税，对美国高粱共计 22%关税，国外玉米进口利润较 高，12 月巴西进口价格 2134 元。今日北方港口平仓价稳定，基本 2310 元附近，东北 1 / 5 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 9 月 9 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/9/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2188 | -17 | -0.78% | 212,314 | 66.47% | 422,662 | 2.00% | | C2605 | | 2254 | -14 | -0.62% | 21,536 | 49.86% | 78,661 | 0.08% | ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 9 月 9 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： Z0018389 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/9/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | | 7860 | -34 | -0.43% | 50 | 31.58% | 430 | 2.38% | | PK510 | | 7884 | -104 | -1.32% | 14,335 | 62.57% | 30,404 | -8.91% | | PK601 | | 7834 | -56 | -0.71% | 13,889 | 15.03% | 35,718 | 3.96% | | 现货与基差 | | | ...

目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 5 | | | 聚酯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 | 品种 | 逻辑分析 | 交易策略 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周PX&PTA期货主力合约价格下行，OPEC 计划 10 月份再度增产，油价大幅回落，PX/PTA 成本重心下移。本周金陵石 ...

苯乙烯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 17 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 n 纯苯： 【交易策略】 单边：震荡整理 套利：观望 期权：观望 GALAXY FUTURES 2 n 本周油价先强后弱，纯苯期货价格先抑后扬，周四中石化纯苯挂牌价格下调100元/吨，周五受计划外装置检修影响市场情绪提振价格反弹。周内纯苯市场交投气氛整 体偏弱，山东市场炼厂库存下降， 工厂挺价意愿强，山东对华东纯苯价差走强，纯苯对石脑油和苯乙烯价差走弱，区域间套利窗口仍呈关闭状态。 n 本周纯苯供增需减，港口库存上升。供应方面，华东一炼厂一套重整装置计划9月停车检修2周左右，另外两套重整装置提负荷运行，纯苯月产量下降10%左右，其余 在检修装置不多。新装置方面，山东裕龙一套裂解乙烯新装置计划9月中旬陆续投产，涉及纯苯产能23万吨/年左右，甲苯13万吨/年，二甲苯6万吨/年；河南丰利石 化一重整新装置预计9月底投产，涉及甲苯产能21万吨/年，二甲苯产能31 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the lithium market showed mixed trends. The lithium ore news was calm, with increased shipments from Australian mines in September and potential further increases from African mines. Lithium salt production increased slightly, but the smelter's available inventory declined rapidly. The demand was boosted by a significant increase in energy - storage orders, and spot procurement was active. The lithium price rebounded with increased positions, showing signs of stabilization. [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Demand Analysis 1.1 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Sales**: From January to July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 41.4% and 40.3%. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 44.3% of the total new vehicle sales. In August, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.3 million, a year - on - year increase of 24% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. From January to August, the cumulative wholesale was 8.93 million, a year - on - year increase of 34%. The power cell production increased significantly in August, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 47% to 748.5GWh from January to August. [13] - **Overseas Markets**: From January to June 2025, the global new energy vehicle sales increased by 30.8% year - on - year to 9.55 million. The US sales increased by 0.6% year - on - year to 828,000, and the European sales increased by 22.4% year - on - year to 1.756 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to July 2025 increased by 81% year - on - year to 1.281 million. The US will cancel the IRA subsidy for new energy vehicles on September 30, which may stimulate pre - delivery exports. [18] 1.2 Energy - Storage Market - In June 2025, the domestic newly commissioned new - type energy - storage project installed capacity was 2.33GW/5.63GWh, with year - on - year and month - on - month declines. In the first half of 2025, the national new - type energy - storage installed capacity reached 94.91GW/222GWh, a growth of about 29%/32% compared to the end of 2024. The new installed capacity increased by over 62% year - on - year. The "rush - to - export" demand and中标 projects in the Middle East, South America, and Australia supported the energy - storage demand. From January to August, the cumulative production of Chinese energy - storage cells was 302.4GWh, a year - on - year increase of 59%. [23] 1.3 Battery and Cathode Production Scheduling in August - In August, the production scheduling of 6 battery enterprises was 110.3GWh, a year - on - year increase of 43% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The production scheduling of 6 cathode enterprises was 147,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. It is expected that the orders will increase by 5 - 10% month - on - month during September - November. [28] 2. Supply Analysis 2.1 Weekly Lithium Carbonate Production - From January to August, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 596,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40%. The production scheduling for September was 86,700 tons. However, due to the shutdown of a top - tier mine in Jiangxi and the reduction of mica smelter production, along with the decrease in processing profit after the price drop, the domestic lithium carbonate production in September is expected to be lower than the scheduling and August's output. [32] 2.2 Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material in China - Not elaborated in detail in the given text, mainly presented in graphical form. 2.3 Lithium Carbonate Supply in August and September - From January to July 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 132,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%. From January to August, Chile's lithium salt exports to China increased by 3% year - on - year to 151,000 tons, with a 14% decrease in lithium carbonate and a 127% increase in lithium sulfate. [41] 3. Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Balance Estimation - Not elaborated in detail in the given text, mainly presented in graphical form. 3.2 Continuous Lithium Carbonate Inventory Reduction with Expanding Magnitude - Lithium carbonate production has shifted to reduction and inventory clearance. The proportion of customer - supplied materials has decreased, and spot procurement has increased significantly. The smelter's inventory is low, mostly pre - sold. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts have increased rapidly, actually locking the spot into the futures. [49] Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral**: This week, the lithium price rebounded with increased positions, showing signs of stabilization. Pay attention to whether it can break through the 5 - day moving average for further rebound [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [5]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options on the 2511 contract [5].