1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High-sulfur fuel oil: Domestic high-sulfur spot is abundant in the near term, with the near-month internal and external price difference oscillating at a low level below zero. Asian high-sulfur supply remains at a high level, and the spot premium in Singapore continues to oscillate at a low level. The supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly less than expected. Demand is supported by the peak season of refined oil, the decline in high-sulfur cracking, and the increase in fuel oil consumption tax deduction in China. Seasonal power generation demand is gradually declining [3]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium of low-sulfur fuel oil oscillates. Supply continues to recover, but there is no specific driver for downstream demand. Attention should be paid to the adjustment and issuance rhythm of low-sulfur quotas in the near term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis** - High-sulfur: Domestic supply is abundant, Asian supply is high, and demand is supported by multiple factors. Seasonal power generation demand is decreasing [3]. - Low-sulfur: Supply is increasing, demand lacks drivers, and attention should be paid to quota adjustments [3]. - **Strategies** - Unilateral: Wait and see. Pay attention to geopolitical and macro disturbances [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. Pay attention to the digestion of near-term high-sulfur spot and the adjustment or issuance of low-sulfur quotas [4]. - Options: No specific view [4] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Supply Side** - Russia: High-sulfur exports increased slightly in July. Refinery offline capacity increased due to maintenance and domestic demand. Sanctions from the EU and the US continue [6]. - Mexico: High-sulfur supply decreased significantly. Olmeca's secondary device was put into operation, and the processing volume of some refineries decreased. High-sulfur exports remained at a low level [9]. - Middle East: High-sulfur exports were stable at a low level. The impact of the Iraq oil field attack on supply was limited. Sanctions on Iran continued. Summer power generation demand in Saudi Arabia and Iran may divert supply [14]. - South Sudan: Low-sulfur heavy raw material supply recovered stably, and the number of export tenders in August increased compared to July [24]. - Al-Zour Refinery: Low-sulfur exports are expected to remain at a high level, and exports to the pan-Singapore region increased [27]. - Nigeria: The RFCC device of Dangote Refinery is still unstable, and low-sulfur export tenders continue to be issued [28]. - **Demand Side** - High-sulfur: Ship fuel demand is stable, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth of the number of desulfurization tower ships. Power generation demand is expected to gradually subside in August and September. China's fuel oil consumption tax deduction ratio is expected to increase, which will support feedstock demand [15][18][23]. - Low-sulfur: Ship fuel demand is stable, but there is no specific driver [31]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Price and Spread** - Fuel oil spot prices and spreads are presented in various charts, including the relationship between high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil and Brent crude oil, as well as cross-regional and cross-period spreads [39][40][43]. - **Inventory** - Inventory data of fuel oil in Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, Japan, the US, and other regions are provided, along with the inventory structure of gasoline, diesel, and refined oil in Northwest Europe and the US Gulf [66][74][76]. - **Terminal Sales** - In June, Singapore's ship fuel bunkering volume decreased slightly compared to the previous month but increased compared to the same period last year. The proportion of high-sulfur and low-sulfur ship fuel bunkering changed [79].

Report 1: Industrial Silicon Weekly Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the supply of industrial silicon has increased after the production increase of leading large - scale factories and south - western silicon factories, there is still a supply - demand gap before the further significant production increase of the leading factory's Shanshan capacity. However, due to the significant callback of coking coal, glass, and soda ash on Friday night, the bullish sentiment may fade next week, and the industrial silicon futures are expected to have a callback [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the weekly output of DMC was 45,600 tons, a 4.60% week - on - week decrease; the weekly output of polysilicon was 24,400 tons, a 4.01% week - on - week increase; the operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys remained flat. The weekly output of industrial silicon was 75,100 tons, a 5.24% week - on - week increase. The number of open furnaces increased in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Xinjiang. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% week - on - week decrease [3]. - **Trading Logic**: There is a supply - demand gap before the significant production increase of the leading factory. The bullish sentiment may fade, and the futures are expected to have a callback [3]. - **Strategies**: For unilateral trading, the bullish sentiment has faded, and short - term callbacks are possible, so previous long positions should be withdrawn. For options, hold the previous protective put options. For arbitrage, gradually take profit on the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Market Review**: This week, industrial silicon futures first rose and then fell. The futures main contract closed at 9,725 yuan/ton on Friday. The industrial silicon spot prices strengthened significantly, and most grades exceeded 10,000 yuan/ton [6]. - **Downstream Demand**: DMC output decreased, polysilicon output slightly increased, and the aluminum alloy operating rates remained stable. Some organic silicon enterprises had maintenance due to accidents, and the total maintenance capacity was 800,000 tons/year. The output of polysilicon is expected to increase in the future [9][13]. - **Industrial Silicon Output**: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 75,100 tons, a 5.24% week - on - week increase. The number of open furnaces increased in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Xinjiang. If the leading factory starts 10 new 33000KVA submerged arc furnaces as planned, the monthly output will increase by about 20,000 tons [19]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slightly, while the factory inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased [20]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Prices of Industrial Silicon - Related Products**: The spot prices of industrial silicon increased week - on - week [26]. - **Prices of Organic Silicon - Related Products**: The prices of DMC and terminal products strengthened this week [31]. - **Fundamental Data of Organic Silicon Intermediates**: The profit margin of DMC improved, and the operating rate decreased week - on - week [37]. - **Fundamental Data of Aluminum Alloys**: The operating rates of aluminum alloys remained stable [40]. - **Raw Material Prices of Industrial Silicon**: The electricity prices in the southwest decreased, and the price of refined coal in Xinjiang increased slightly [42]. Report 2: Polysilicon Weekly Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In August, polysilicon enterprises are expected to increase production, and there may be an oversupply of 15,000 - 20,000 tons. After the significant callback of coking coal, soda ash, and glass on Friday, the polysilicon futures are expected to open significantly lower on Monday. If the capacity integration plan is finalized in the middle of the week, the bullish expectation of polysilicon futures still exists [48]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply and Demand**: In August, the polysilicon output is expected to increase by about 30,000 tons, and the silicon wafer production schedule is basically the same as that in July, resulting in an oversupply [48]. - **Trading Strategies**: For unilateral trading, withdraw long positions temporarily and re - enter after a sufficient callback. Hold put options. Gradually take profit on the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [49]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Situation - **Polysilicon Prices**: The spot quotations of polysilicon manufacturers remained stable this week. The actual transaction prices increased after the strengthening of polysilicon futures [56][62]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Prices**: The prices of silicon wafers and batteries strengthened. The prices of silicon wafers increased significantly, and the battery prices are expected to continue to rise [63][67]. - **Component Prices**: The prices of photovoltaic components increased slightly this week, and there is an expectation of further increase [68]. - **Component Fundamental Data**: The domestic component inventory decreased rapidly. The price increase of components was partially accepted, but the mechanism electricity price was negative. The orders and production schedules in August weakened [75]. - **Battery Fundamental Data**: The inventory of professional battery manufacturers decreased to 9.9GW. The battery production is scheduled according to demand, and the import demand from Turkey increased. The domestic battery production schedule in August is expected to be 52GW, a decrease of 2GW compared with July [81]. - **Silicon Wafer Fundamental Data**: The silicon wafer inventory increased to 17.87GW this week, and the production remained flat. The production schedule in August is expected to be the same as that in July [85]. - **Polysilicon Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production increased slightly this week, and the factory inventory increased to 275,400 tons. The production is expected to increase by about 30,000 tons in August [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. It points out that market sentiment is affected by factors such as trade agreements, tariff policies, and supply - demand relationships. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations; most metals are facing price pressures due to different factors, but there are also potential trading opportunities in different scenarios [3][5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold fell for three consecutive days, closing down 0.92% at $3337.18 per ounce; London silver fell 2.39% to $38.17 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.219% to 97.66, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.384%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.17% to 7.168 [3]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement with a 15% tariff on EU goods, $600 billion in EU investment in the US, and EU purchases of US military equipment and energy products. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 97.4%, and in September is 35.9% [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: As reciprocal tariffs are about to take effect and the US - EU trade agreement is reached, market risk - aversion sentiment eases. However, due to uncertainties in US tariffs, policies, and the Fed's independence, precious metals are expected to remain volatile at high levels [3][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the progress of China - US tariff negotiations, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and US non - farm and PCE data [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,800 yuan per ton, down 0.67%. LME copper closed at $9796 per ton, down 0.59%. LME inventory increased by 3700 tons to 128,000 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 776 tons to 248,000 tons [7]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement, and the US will determine chip - related tariff policies in two weeks [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and the approaching tariff deadline may impact the market. Supply is increasing, and it's the consumption off - season, so the upside of copper prices is limited [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading; consider buying deep - out - of - the - money call options at low prices [9]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of the alumina 2509 contract fell 217 yuan to 3243 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [11]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are amending the Price Law. Some alumina enterprises are affected by natural disasters; inventory and production capacity data have changed [11][12][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The policy of eliminating backward production capacity may impact the market. Inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand surplus is expanding. Pay attention to the change in the spot supply - demand pattern [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level fluctuations; hold off on trading for now [14][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell 135 yuan per ton to 20,615 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [20]. - **Important Information**: Aluminum inventory increased, and the US - EU is discussing steel and aluminum tariffs. Some enterprises are operating at full capacity [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and inventory changes affect the market. Pay attention to the opportunity of the spread between contracts [23][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure; consider a long - short spread strategy for 09 - 12 contracts [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 155 yuan to 19,995 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [28]. - **Important Information**: Inventory increased, and production data changed [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is restricted by scrap aluminum shortage, and demand is affected by the off - season. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity between the spot and futures [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are under pressure with aluminum prices; consider arbitrage when the spread is above 300 - 400 yuan [32]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc market fell 0.4% to $2829 per ton; the Shanghai zinc 2509 contract fell 0.57% to 22,715 yuan per ton. Spot trading was average [34]. - **Important Information**: Zinc ore inventory at ports decreased, and the processing fee is expected to rise [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc ore is sufficient, and the supply of refined zinc is expected to increase. It's the consumption off - season, and the downstream demand is weak [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions; buy put options [37]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead market fell 0.12% to $2020.5 per ton; the Shanghai lead 2509 contract fell 0.38% to 16,845 yuan per ton. Spot trading was average [39]. - **Important Information**: The cost of recycled lead is high, and the raw material supply is a problem [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost of recycled lead provides support for lead prices. The production of lead smelters is affected, and the terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved slightly [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading; consider a small - position long at low prices; sell put options [42]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell to $15,265 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel main contract fell to 121,430 yuan per ton. Spot premiums changed [44]. - **Important Information**: Some nickel - related projects in Indonesia have made strategic adjustments [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Nickel prices are affected by the market sentiment. There is a risk of potential demand decline, and the supply - demand pattern in August may be similar to that in July [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading follows the macro - environment; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 129,785 yuan per ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [48][50]. - **Important Information**: Some steel mills are under maintenance, and tax policies have been adjusted [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: External demand is restricted, and speculative demand is strong. The cost is affected by raw materials, and the market is trading based on macro - logic [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading returns to the oscillation range; hold off on trading for now [53]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures rose first and then fell, and the spot prices strengthened [55]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are amending the Price Law [56]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand have changed, and the short - term bullish sentiment may fade [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Withdraw from long positions; hold protective put options; participate in arbitrage strategies [57]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated and strengthened, then fell. Spot prices are given [59]. - **Important Information**: The photovoltaic industry's development in the first half of 2025 is reviewed, and the national photovoltaic installation scale prediction is adjusted [61]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and there may be an oversupply in August. The futures may open lower, and pay attention to the capacity - integration plan [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider a long - position strategy at low prices if the price drops significantly; pay attention to the capacity - integration plan [61]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose to 90,520 yuan per ton, and spot prices increased [63]. - **Important Information**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is promoting the research and listing of some futures products and has adjusted the trading limit [63][66]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is trading based on the expectation of mine closures. The price may fluctuate greatly, and pay attention to regulatory policies [65][66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Withdraw from long positions for now; consider long - positions after a sufficient correction; hold put options; participate in far - month contract reverse arbitrage [65][66]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 contract fell to 268,130 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees are given [68]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement, and the global economic growth forecast is lowered [68][70]. - **Logic Analysis**: Tin prices fell after rising. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is affected by the off - season. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [70]. - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices fluctuate with the market sentiment; hold off on trading for now [70].

钢材：市场情绪推涨，钢材震荡上行 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 目录 | 第一章 | 钢材行情总结与展望 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 价格及利润回顾 | 5 | | 第三章 | 国内外重要宏观数据 | 12 | | 第四章 | 钢材供需以及库存情况 | 19 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 钢材总结 数据总结： GALAXY FUTURES 2 供给：本周螺纹小样本产量211.96万吨（+2.90），热卷小样本产量317.49万吨（-3.65）。247家钢厂高炉铁水日 均242.23万吨（-0.21），富宝49家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率30.2%（+1.6）。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本在 3446（折盘面）元/吨左右，电炉平电利润-23.75元/吨左右，谷电成本3281（折理记）元左右，华东三线螺纹谷电 利润+141元/吨。本周钢价跟随盘面大幅上涨，谷电全面盈利，导致短流程钢复产；长流程钢利润增至100以上，由 于利润偏高，铁水延续高位；废钢日耗增至51万吨以上，总体钢材生产积极性偏强。 需求：Mysteel统计本 ...

市场预期乐观，矿价高位运行 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F 0 3 1 0 5 9 1 7 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 目 录 第一部分：综合分析与交易策略 第二部分：铁矿核心逻辑分析 * [16] A. A. K. K. GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 逻辑分析：本周铁矿价格高位宽幅震荡，价格阶段性高位市场分歧有所加大。本轮矿价自底部最大上涨15%左右，市场预期较快好转。 基本面方面，供应端主流矿山发运进入季节性淡季，整体难以看到显著增量；上周非主流矿发运环比大幅回升，与去年同期相比7月份 有望延续6月份高发运水平，但整体对供应压力影响不大。需求端，6月份统计局数据地产仍处于底部，基建投资环比走弱，建筑用钢 需求维持低位运行；6月份制造业投资当月同比5.1%，环比出现较快回落，可能受设备更新资金前期使用比例较高有关，但在固定资 产投资中仍是主要支撑因素。钢联本周铁水产量处于高位运行，虽整体制造业用钢需求增速放缓，但预计韧性仍会得到延续。 整体来看，本轮矿价自底部上涨受多方面因素影响，主要是宏观预期回暖，估值修复以及供给侧政策扰动预期，当前估值已经 ...

反内卷资金轮动 合金短线偏强 银河期货大宗商品研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 9 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 1 套利：多硅铁空锰硅止盈离场； 期权：观望。 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 2 目录 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本面方面，供应端，随着近期价格上涨，硅铁、锰硅产量均有小幅回升，未来或还有进一步上行动力，但需要关注龙头企 业会议后是否对产量进行控制。需求方面，钢材需求表现仍有韧性，钢联样本五大品种钢材表需基本平稳，247家钢厂铁水 产量环比略有下降，总量保持高位，对合金存在刚需支撑。成本端方面，本周电价总体平稳，港口锰矿价格小幅上涨。总体 来看，合金呈现供需双增格局，基本面总体较为健康。 市场情绪方面，锰硅头部企业准备召开"反内卷"会议，商讨产量控制以应对行业竞争。商品市场目前本就以反内卷为交易 主线，受此消息提振，硅铁、锰硅期价大幅增仓后双双涨停 ...

纯碱玻璃周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 目录 第一章 核心逻辑分析 2 第二章 周度数据追踪 10 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1.1 纯碱供应——夏季检修溢价有限 单位：万吨 纯碱产量 纯碱联碱法开工率 单位：% 纯碱氨碱法开工率 单位：% 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 2025 2024 2023 2022 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 2025 2024 2023 2022 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 第53 周 第50 周 第47 周 第44 周 第41 周 第38 周 第35 周 第32 周 第29 周 第26 周 第23 周 第20 周 第17 周 第14 周 第11 周 第8周 第5周 第2周 2025年度 2024年度 2023年度 2022年度 2021 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The US corn is oscillating at the bottom, and it's likely to be affected by weather speculation later. The downside space of the US corn December contract below 420 cents per bushel is limited. The 09 corn contract is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom, with strong support at 2280 and resistance at 2330. The 09 corn and starch price spread will still fluctuate within a narrow range, and it's advisable to wait and see for the 01 corn contract [3]. - The开机 rate of starch factories is decreasing, downstream demand remains weak, but提货 volume has increased, leading to a decline in starch inventory. Starch spot prices are relatively stable, and starch factories are still suffering significant losses [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: The US corn is oscillating at the bottom. Northeast corn prices are falling, North - port inventory is decreasing, and North - port spot prices are stable. North China corn supply is tight, and 09 corn is oscillating at the bottom, affected by the auction volume [3]. - **Starch**: The开机 rate of starch factories is decreasing, downstream demand is weak,提货 volume increases, and inventory decreases. Starch spot prices are stable, and factories are in significant losses [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Consider buying the US corn December contract below 420 cents per bushel. The 09 corn will oscillate between 2280 - 2330. It's advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [3][4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International - **Weather and Supply - Demand**: The US corn planting is completed, the July report is flat, and the weather is good, resulting in bottom - level oscillation. The import tariffs for US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively. Domestic import profits have expanded. As of July 17, the US corn export inspection this week was 1.3 million tons, with a cumulative export of 58.11 million tons. In June, 160,000 tons of corn were imported, and from January to June, 790,000 tons were imported, compared to 1.105 billion tons in the same period last year [6]. - **Non - commercial Net Short Position and Ethanol Production**: As of July 15, the non - commercial net short position of US corn was 130,000 lots, showing a decrease. US ethanol production has rebounded. The US corn December contract is expected to have limited downside space below 420 cents per bushel [11]. Domestic - **Deep - processing and Feed**: Deep - processing consumption, inventory, and feed enterprise corn inventory are all decreasing. In the 30th week of 2025 (July 17 - July 24), 1.0624 million tons of corn were consumed by 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the previous week. As of July 23, the inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 4.005 million tons, a 6.21% decrease from the previous week. As of July 24, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed factories was 30.87 days, a decrease of 0.47 days from the previous week but a 0.65% increase compared to the same period last year [14]. - **Port Inventory**: North - port corn inventory is decreasing, while South - port grain inventory is increasing. On July 18, the corn inventory of the four northern ports was 2.209 million tons, a weekly decrease of 97,000 tons, and the four - port shipping volume was 340,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 262,000 tons. The total grain inventory in Guangdong Port increased by 122,000 tons to 1.826 million tons [17]. - **Starch**: The开机 rate of deep - processing is decreasing. From July 17 to July 23, the national corn processing volume was 501,500 tons, and the starch production was 235,200 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week. The开机 rate was 45.46%, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The profit loss has expanded, and starch inventory is decreasing. As of July 23, the corn starch inventory was 1.311 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from the previous week [20]. - **Substitutes**: Wheat prices are basically stable. The price difference between wheat and corn is narrowing, the North China corn price is rebounding, the Northeast corn price is strong, the price difference between North China and Northeast corn is expanding, and the price difference between North China corn and the 09 corn contract is rising [26]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry**: From July 17 - July 23, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 72 yuan per head, a decrease of 43 yuan per head from the previous week, and the profit of buying piglets for fattening was - 117 yuan per head, a decrease of 46 yuan per head from the previous week. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was - 0.88 yuan per bird, compared to - 2.04 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.54 yuan per catty, and the profit was - 0.32 yuan per catty, compared to - 0.77 yuan per catty last week [32][37]. - **Deep - processing Consumption**: This week, the开机 rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup was 56.71%, a decrease of 1.02% from the previous week, and the开机 rate of maltose syrup was 45.04%, a decrease of 0.74% from the previous week. The开机 rate of corrugated paper was 61.97%, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous week, and the开机 rate of boxboard paper was 65.6%, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous week [40]. - **Prices of Corn and Substitutes**: Relevant price trends and price differences of corn and its substitutes are presented through various price charts, such as the Jinzhou Port corn flat - hatch price, Weifang starch ex - factory price, etc. [42][43]

大宗市场情绪偏强，甲醇震荡为主 大宗商品研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年7月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、核心观点及交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 观点：原料煤方面，煤矿开工率提升，截止7月24日，鄂市煤矿开工率78%，榆林地区煤矿开工率48%，煤矿复产，鄂尔多斯地区煤 矿开工率与榆林地区开工率提升，当前鄂市与榆林地区煤炭日均产量400万吨附近，需求尚可，坑口价坚挺运行。供应端，原料煤价格 坚挺，西北主流甲醇企业竞拍价格坚挺，煤制甲醇利润在700元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽松。进口端，国际甲 醇装置开工率继续攀升，美金价格小幅下跌，进口重回顺挂，伊朗装置陆续提负，非伊开工稳定，外盘开工年内新高，欧美市场持续下 跌，中欧价差收平，东南亚转口窗口关闭，伊朗7月已装60万吨，伊朗继续降价招标，部分印度货源流向中国，非伊货源增加，太仓到 货增加，加速累库。需求端，传统下游进入淡季，开工率回落，MTO装置 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading volume of peanuts has decreased, the price of common peanuts has declined, and the purchase price of oil mills has remained stable. The futures price of peanuts is expected to fluctuate at the bottom due to the low supply and weak demand of common peanuts, and the expected increase in the planting area and decrease in the planting cost of new - season peanuts [4]. - It is recommended to short 10 - contract peanuts above 8300, conduct reverse arbitrage on the 10 - 1 spread when it is high, and try the option strategy of selling pk510 - C - 8800 [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Logic**: The trading volume of peanuts has decreased, the price of common peanuts has dropped, and the purchase price of oil mills has been stable. The开机率 of oil mills has slightly decreased, the inventory of peanut oil and peanuts in oil mills has declined but remains at a high level. The 10 - contract peanut has fluctuated downward, and the 10 - 1 spread has decreased. The futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4]. - **Strategies**: Short 10 - contract peanuts above 8300; conduct reverse arbitrage on the 10 - 1 spread when it is high; try the option strategy of selling pk510 - C - 8800 [4]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Peanut Price**: In the domestic market, the price of peanuts in Henan has declined. The price of common peanuts has generally decreased. The purchase price of oil mills has remained stable, and most oil mills have stopped purchasing. The price of imported peanuts has also remained stable [6][8]. - **Domestic Demand**: The开机率 of oil mills has slightly decreased, and the peanut inventory has declined. As of July 24, the开机率 of peanut oil mills was 4.29%, a 0.34% decrease from the previous week. The peanut inventory in oil mills was 10.7 tons, a decrease of 0.44 tons from the previous week, and the peanut oil inventory was 3.9 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons from the previous week [9][11]. - **Pressing Profit**: The purchase price of peanut oil mills has remained stable, the price of peanut meal has slightly increased, and the price of peanut oil has remained stable. As a result, the pressing profit of oil mills has increased to 143 yuan/ton, a 22 - yuan increase from the previous week [12][14]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of peanuts has stabilized around 100 yuan, and the spot - futures price difference is at a high level. It is advisable to wait and see [15][18]. - **Peanut Import**: The import volume of peanuts has significantly decreased. In June, the import of peanut kernels was 27,000 tons, and from January to June, the total import was 94,000 tons, a 76% decrease compared to the same period last year [20][22]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Peanut Price**: The price of peanuts in different regions shows different trends. For example, the price of new - season peanuts in Henan has decreased, while the price in some other regions has remained stable or slightly increased. The purchase price of oil mills is generally in the range of 7500 - 7650 yuan/ton, and the price of Sudanese peanuts is 8350 yuan/ton, both remaining stable [8]. - **Domestic Demand**: The开机率 of oil mills has decreased, and the peanut inventory has also declined [9][11]. - **Pressing Profit**: The pressing profit of oil mills has increased due to the stable purchase price of peanuts, the slightly increased price of peanut meal, and the stable price of peanut oil [12][14]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of peanuts has decreased and stabilized around 100 yuan, and the spot - futures price difference is at a high level [18]. - **Peanut Import**: The import volume of peanut kernels has decreased significantly, while the export volume has increased. The import volume of peanut oil has increased [20][22]. - **Other Data**: There are also data on the price difference between different peanut contracts, the import price and quantity of peanut oil from different countries, and the price difference between soybean meal and peanut meal [29][45][46].