风险偏好下降 镍价震荡走弱 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 价差追踪与库存 4 第二章 基本面分析 8 宏观方面，市场预期美联储12月仍有一次降息，中美关税可能下调，地缘政治缓和，四季度宏观氛围可能提升 市场风险偏好。但即便如此，镍在商品普涨时依然较为克制，一旦外围市场回调就跟随大幅下跌，仍被作为空 头配置。 产业方面，经济活动仍然缺乏亮点，镍下游消费走势预计较为平淡。供应端被硫酸镍抢占部分原料，部分柔性 产线转产硫酸镍，10月纯镍产量环比下降。金川电积镍部分转产硫酸镍，同时有贸易商囤货，现货升水走强。 精炼镍供需略有收窄，但整体宽松，交割品充裕，且成本支撑不够坚实，后市可能随淡季来临震荡走弱。 期货层面：本周国内外同时累库但幅度有限，镍价上方空间受限。硫酸镍价格走弱而镍矿价格偏强，暂时也未 打开下方空间。预计镍价承压，震荡走弱，测试前低支撑。 不锈钢交易逻辑及策略 综合分析 交易逻辑及策略 GALAXY FUTURES 1 单边：震荡走弱，反弹沽空。 镍交易逻辑及策略 期权：卖出阻力位虚值看涨期权。 综合分析 交易逻辑及策略 GALA ...

供需偏紧 锂价高位运行 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 GALAXY FUTURES 2 短期来看，11月下游排产环比小幅增长，碳酸锂产量略降，进口小幅回升，供应增速低于需求，预计11月加速去库。 10月库销比已是近两年低位，11月库销比预计进一步降低。理论上不考虑枧下窝复产的情况下，碳酸锂去库速度在11 月中旬之前可能达到顶峰，并于12月放缓，因此价格在11月中旬之前交易11月供需情况，下周仍将保持高位运行。当 前市场情绪与股市关联较强，部分资金流入布局长期多单，2605合约更被追捧。 中期来看，12月需求转入淡季，较难进一步大幅增长，同时海外矿山发运增加，或将缓和供需偏紧的局面。11月中下 旬排产情况更确定后可能开始交易供需边际转松，且近期枧下窝复产推进，不支持价格进一步创新高。 期货层面：若资金炒作明年储能拉动的供需好转，推动价格来到前高附近，可考虑空头套保入场。关注下周现货成交 情况。 目录 第一章 需求分析 4 第二章 供应分析 8 第三章 供需平衡及库存 11 GALAXY FUTURES 1 碳酸锂后市行情展望 综合分析 行情展望及策略 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 10 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 豆粕：供应压力仍存 盘面短期回落 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大趋势偏弱 国内糖价震荡行情 5 | | 油脂板块：震荡磨底阶段 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，盘面偏强震荡 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 价格呈现回落 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生短期底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求有所改善蛋价略有回升 10 | | 苹果：新果陆续入库果价稳定为主 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：采摘进入尾声棉价震荡为主 12 | | 股指期货：周末利好再引上行 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：缺乏增量利好，期债上行暂缓 4 | | 钢材：螺纹供应增长，钢价区间震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：短期震荡调整 等待回调后做多的机会 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：成本有所支撑，前期空单减持 15 | | 贵金属：多空因素交织，贵金属延续区间整理 16 | | --- | | 铜：资金持续离场，短线震荡整理 17 | | 氧化铝：供应端减产预期仍 ...

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Supply Gradually Recovering, Lead Prices May Oscillate Weakly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the gradual increase in the operation of domestic secondary lead smelters, the supply of domestic lead ingots may improve. On the consumption side, terminal demand is gradually weakening, and domestic lead consumption may decline. Attention should be paid to the domestic social inventory situation, and lead prices may decline as social inventory increases [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market and Logic 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply - Side**: Recently, the supply - demand of domestic lead concentrates remains in a tight balance. The processing fee of domestic lead concentrates has been reduced by 50 yuan to 300 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee of SMM imported lead concentrates has been reduced by 10 US dollars to - 135 US dollars/dry ton. Most secondary lead smelters in China have sufficient raw material inventories, and the purchase quotes for lead - containing waste materials are stable. Individual secondary lead smelters have slightly increased the purchase price of waste batteries. It is expected that as the operation of secondary lead smelting enterprises increases, the price of lead - containing waste materials may gradually rise [4] - **Smelting End**: This week, the average operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters is 67.57%, an increase of 0.4% from last week. A small - scale smelter in Henan has resumed production after maintenance and slightly increased production; a small - and medium - scale smelter in Hunan has slightly fluctuated in output due to raw material supply, and other smelters in this region maintain partial operation and have not fully resumed production; smelters in Yunnan maintain normal production this week; a smelter in North China has reduced production as scheduled for maintenance, and another smelter's maintenance plan is still scheduled for late November. A smelter in Inner Mongolia that had resumed production after maintenance but was not at full capacity has returned to normal production and still has a slight increase this week. The weekly operating rate of SMM's four - province secondary lead is 50.65%, an increase of 7.24% from last week. The operating rate of secondary lead smelters in Anhui is over 50%. The large - scale smelting enterprises under maintenance in this region have all resumed production and their output is slowly increasing. It is expected that the operating rate in this region will still rise next week. The production of enterprises in Henan and Jiangsu is relatively stable, and the regional operating rate has not changed much. Since the supply of lead ingots in the northern market is still not abundant, the sales orders of smelters in Inner Mongolia are good [4] - **Consumption End**: This week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five - province lead - acid battery enterprises is 69.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%. Recently, affected by the rising lead prices, the production cost of lead - acid batteries has increased. To avoid accumulating high - price inventories, some medium - and large - scale enterprises plan to reduce production, stop production, or conduct equipment maintenance from the end of October to early November. The maintenance of lead - acid battery enterprises has been completed one after another this week, and a small number of enterprises have resumed normal production. In November, the demand in the automotive battery market is weak, and some enterprises have lowered their production plans for November. Therefore, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid batteries has only increased slightly this week [4] - **Inventory Data**: As of November 6, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions has reached 31,800 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons compared to October 30 and an increase of 1,600 tons compared to November 1 [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Hold previous short positions; temporarily hold off on arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [4] 1.2 - 1.6 - These sections list various data related to lead, including futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventory, but no specific analysis content is provided [5][8][12][16] Chapter 2: Raw Material End 2.1 - 2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - These sections list data on global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, and domestic lead concentrate supply, but no specific analysis content is provided [21][24] 2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary - These sections list data on the price of lead - containing waste materials, waste battery prices, and the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters, but no specific analysis content is provided [28] Chapter 3: Smelting End 3.1 Global Refined Lead - Lists data on global refined lead balance, production, and demand, but no specific analysis content is provided [36] 3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Lists data on import and export profits and losses, import and export volumes, and net export volumes of domestic refined lead, but no specific analysis content is provided [43] 3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profits - Lists data on lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profits, sulfuric acid revenue, and silver revenue, but no specific analysis content is provided [44] 3.4 Primary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate and production of primary lead smelting enterprises, but no specific analysis content is provided [47] 3.5 Secondary Lead Enterprise Costs and Profits - Lists data on the costs, comprehensive profits and losses, and production profits of secondary lead enterprises of different scales, but no specific analysis content is provided [50][54] 3.6 Secondary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate, production, and output of secondary lead smelting enterprises, but no specific analysis content is provided [59] 3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Lists data on the total supply of domestic lead ingots, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and net refined lead exports, but no specific analysis content is provided [62] Chapter 4: Demand End 4.1 Lead - Acid Batteries - Lists data on the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises, dealer inventories, export and import volumes, and enterprise inventories, but no specific analysis content is provided [69] 4.2 Lead Alloys and Their Plates - Lists data on lead alloy prices, lead alloy imports and exports, lead plate imports and exports, and other lead plate imports and exports, but no specific analysis content is provided [72] 4.3 Automobiles - Lists data on Chinese automobile production, exports, and production structure, but no specific analysis content is provided [75] 4.4 Motorcycles, Power, and Communications - Lists data on motorcycle production, communication construction volume, and power projects, but no specific analysis content is provided [78]

铜周报：流动性担忧引发铜价短线回调 研究员： 王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022141 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 内外盘价格走势 4 第三章 铜基本面分析及周度数据跟踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析及操作策略 n 宏观面 n 废铜 n 精铜 10月SMM中国电解铜产量环比下降2.94万吨，环比降幅2.62%，同比增幅9.63%。累计增幅为11.96%。1-10月累计产量同比增加119.14万吨，增幅为11.96%。SMM预计 11月电解铜环比下降0.4万吨，降幅0.37%，同比增幅8.21%。累计同比增幅11.62%。展望12月，10-11月集中检修后，12月产量或有所提升；但年内铜价屡创新高令部分冶 炼厂年底追产意愿较低，预计12月产量仅小幅提升，产量整体高于前期的市场预期。 n 消费 从终端来看，国内需求边际走弱，房地产继续拖累市场，光伏、空调排产出现大幅下滑，后期市场主要支撑来源于两网订单、汽车、储能电池，下游对高价接受度不足， 85000元/吨附近采购有所增加。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 美国政府停摆时间创历史新高，市场短 ...

橡胶板块2025年11月第1周报 潘盛杰 研究所 化工团队负责人 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 橡胶：下游兑现需时间，上游宽松是现实 ◼【综合分析】 橡胶下游消费呈现"越远越强，越近越弱"的显著特征。截至2025年11月，中证1000指数连续7个月上涨，同比涨幅达45.1%，而欧洲汽车行 业指数虽连续5个月同比上涨，但绝对值仍为负值。国内橡塑业用电量虽创2024年以来新高，但轮胎产量同比增幅仅1.5%，显示终端需求尚 未完全恢复。 政策预期成为驱动橡胶市场的重要因素。2025年5月中国汽车工业协会发布"反内卷"倡议后，橡胶与政策题材商品的相关性从不足32%飙升 至80%以上。尽管10月29日橡胶因政策预期短暂上涨，但仅维持一天即回落，显示政策驱动的不确定性。 在政策效应消退后，市场将转向关注供应端。天然橡胶方面，2025年1月至2026年3月为供应旺季，泰国日均降雨量较去年同期减少67%， 有利于割胶作业。东南亚主产国产量连续9个月同比增加，9月同比增长4.6%。合成橡胶领域，丁二烯表需连续12个月同比增加，顺丁橡胶 表需在最近11个月中有10个月实现增长，显示合成橡胶供应持续宽松。 综合来看，橡胶市场 ...

股指期货周报：震荡上行中有望挑战前高 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号：F0211891 投资咨询证号：Z0000567 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 第二部分 周度数据追踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 一周要闻 GALAXY FUTURES 2 10月31日，吴清主席在《<中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议>辅导读本》上的署名 文章，提高资本市场制度包容性、适应性。 受AI泡沫、美政府关门和流动性危机疑虑影响，美股本周全线下跌，纳指创出4月初之后的最大单周跌幅。 2025年10月份，居民消费价格同比上涨0.2%；全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降2.1%，降幅比上月收窄0.2个 百分点；环比由上月持平转为上涨0.1%；CPI由降转涨，PPI降幅收窄。 10月，中国进出口数据公布，美元计价的中国出口增速-1.1%（前值8.3%），进口增速1.0%（前值7.4%）。 10月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 2025年三季度，我国经常账户顺差13948亿元，其中，货物贸易顺差19213亿元，服务贸易逆差3520 ...

供需边际走弱 成本端有所支撑 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 硅铁方面，供应端仍然没有出现下行趋势，样本企业开工率与产量双双回升，整体均维持高位。需求方面，本周钢联样本钢材表需 与产量双双下降，铁水产量也有超预期下降。尽管唐山阶段性限产结束后，铁水产量或出现反弹，但在目前钢材利润不佳的情况下， 原料需求端始终存在下行预期。成本端方面，动力煤现货价格创下年内新高，进入枯水期之后，西南产区铁合金电价明显上涨。总 体来看，供需端压力不减，但成本端有部分支撑，预计延续底部震荡走势，前期空单可逢低减持。 ...

铁水高位回落，矿价偏空对待 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F 0 3 1 0 5 9 1 7 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 目 录 第一部分：综合分析与交易策略 第二部分：铁矿核心逻辑分析 * [16] A. A. K. K. GALAXY FUTURES 2 逻辑分析：本周矿价高位大幅回落，终端需求较快回落主导中期矿价。基本面方面，四季度至今全球铁矿供应维持在高位，延续三季 度高发运水平；主流矿维持平稳，非主流发运高位回落，四季度预计会延续贡献增量，但增速可能会放缓。需求端，三季度国内用钢 需求环比大幅走弱，地产、基建和制造业用钢同比均出现下滑，10月份延续偏弱走势，预计四季度难以看到好转，对当前基本面影响 较大；但对铁矿来说，海外需求仍维持高增长，1-9月海外铁元素消费量同比增加近4%/2760万吨，其中1-9月份海外印度粗钢产量同 比增加10%/1160万吨，全年预计贡献1500万吨增量，二季度至今海外铁元素消费量同比处于高位，持续贡献增量。 整体来看，当前终端需求呈现国内走弱，海外用钢维持高增长，铁矿石估值在黑色系中维持在高位。但随着国内用钢需求较快走弱， 三季度以来国内铁元素库存持续增加，进口铁矿 ...

EC周报：11月下半月拉涨动力减弱，EC盘面冲高回落 研究员：贾瑞林 期货从业证号：F3084078 投资咨询证号：Z0018656 2025年11月7日 银河期货高级分析师 贾瑞林 投资咨询资格：Z0018656 内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议，期市有风险，入市需谨慎 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 21 银河期货高级分析师 贾瑞林 投资咨询资格：Z0018656 内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议，期市有风险，入市需谨慎 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 内容摘要 银河期货高级分析师 贾瑞林 投资咨询资格：Z0018656 内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议，期市有风险，入市需谨慎 227/82/4 228/210/17 ...