Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide information on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector. [17][24][56] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: After a significant decline, there may be a technical rebound, but the rebound without news support may have limited height. The trading strategy is to adopt a high - selling and low - buying approach in a volatile market, wait for the spread of the discount to widen for the IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use the double - buying option strategy. [20][21] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Different maturities show differentiated performance. In the short term, it is difficult to determine whether the bond market will turn bearish. The trading strategy is to stop the short positions of TS and TF contracts at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage. [22][23] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: With large supply pressure from new crops, the price of US soybeans continues to decline. The international soybean market is in a pattern of abundant supply. The trading strategy is to wait and see, narrow the MRM spread, and sell the wide - straddle option strategy. [25][26] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are oscillating at a low level, and domestic sugar prices are weak. The Brazilian sugar supply pressure will gradually ease, and the international sugar price may bottom - out and oscillate. The domestic sugar market may still maintain a weak trend in the short term. The trading strategy is to go long on the January contract and short on the May contract, and wait and see for options. [28][32] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The overall trend is weakly oscillating. The trading strategy is to buy on dips after the price stops falling and stabilizes, and conduct high - selling and low - buying band operations, and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [34][35] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price has declined, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. The trading strategy is to go long on the 03 contract on dips and establish long positions on the 07 contract at low prices, and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [37][38] - **Hogs**: The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price is oscillating. The trading strategy is to adopt a short - selling strategy, and wait and see for arbitrage and sell the wide - straddle option strategy. [39][40] - **Peanuts**: The spot price has declined, and the futures price is oscillating downward. The trading strategy is to short the 03 contract lightly at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option. [41][43] - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. The trading strategy is to go long on the far - month contracts at low prices, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [44][46] - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. The trading strategy is to wait and see, go long on the January contract and short on the October contract, and wait and see for options. [48][50] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales of new cotton are good, and the price is oscillating strongly. The trading strategy is to go long on dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [52][54] Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw materials have stopped falling and stabilized, and the steel price is oscillating. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate in a range and may rebound from the bottom in the short term, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - rebar spread at high prices, and wait and see for options. [57][58] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are oscillating at the bottom. The trading strategy is to wait and see, as the current situation has priced in most of the negative factors, and pay attention to the change of trading logic. [60][61] - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bearish approach. The current supply of iron ore is abundant, and the demand is weak, so the price is expected to run weakly at a high level. [62][65] - **Ferroalloys**: The cost is supported, but the demand is suppressed. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money straddle option combination. [66][67] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US employment market is cooling down, but under the situation of multiple factors, they are oscillating at a high level. The trading strategy is to hold long positions for Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy the out - of - the - money call option. [69][72] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The non - farm payroll data is lower than expected, and they are oscillating strongly. The trading strategy is to go long on platinum and palladium at low prices, and consider the long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage. [74][76] - **Copper**: Buy after a full correction. The US employment data shows that the labor market is cooling down, and the copper price is expected to rise in the long term. [77][80] - **Alumina**: Be vigilant against the resurgence of the "anti - involution" sentiment. The fundamental situation is still under pressure. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate at a low level, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [80][83] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There is uncertainty in the macro - economic outlook, and the price is oscillating with a reduction in positions. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate after a correction, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [84][85] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: There is uncertainty in the macro - economic outlook this week. The trading strategy is to oscillate with the decline of the aluminum price, conduct the AD - AL spread convergence arbitrage during the decline of the aluminum price, and wait and see for options. [87][88] - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the magnitude of overseas warehouse delivery. The trading strategy is to wait and see, as the overseas delivery has put pressure on the price, and consider the long - domestic and short - overseas strategy when the export window may open intermittently. [89][92] - **Lead**: Pay attention to the change of inventory. The trading strategy is to partially stop the profit of the short positions and hold the rest, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [93][96] - **Nickel**: As a short - position variety, it continues to decline. The trading strategy is to expect the price to decline oscillatingly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [97][98] - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the decline of the nickel price and oscillates weakly. The trading strategy is to expect the price to decline oscillatingly, and wait and see for arbitrage. [100][101] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sell on rallies. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [102][103] - **Polysilicon**: Buy on dips. The trading strategy is to hold long positions and buy on dips, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon for arbitrage, and sell the put option. [104][104] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The impact of the mining license is limited, and pay attention to the inventory data. The trading strategy is to operate cautiously at a high level, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option of the 2605 contract when the price rises. [105][107] - **Tin**: Pay attention to the export data of Myanmar in November. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the export data of Myanmar in November and be vigilant against the change of macro - economic sentiment, and wait and see for options. [108][111] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: MSK tested the price of 2800 in the first week. The trading strategy is to partially stop the profit of the long positions of the EC2602 contract and hold the rest, and wait and see for arbitrage. [112][114] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price is close to the annual low, and the geopolitical factor is still the focus. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the oil price spread is weak, and wait and see for options. [116][117] - **Bitumen**: The oil price has dropped significantly, and there are still concerns about the raw materials. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate and stabilize, and sell the out - of - the - money call option of the BU2602 contract. [119][121] - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil remains weak, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is frequently disturbed by the change of devices. The trading strategy is to be bearish, the low - sulfur cracking spread is weak, the high - sulfur cracking spread is weak, and wait and see for options. [121][122] - **Natural Gas**: The downward trend of LNG remains unchanged, and HH continues to correct. The trading strategy is to buy the HH2602 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the TTF call option. [124][126] - **LPG**: It is slightly stronger than oil. The trading strategy is to short the 03 contract at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [127][128] - **PX and PTA**: The PX operating rate remains high, and there is still an expectation of PTA inventory accumulation. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, conduct the reverse arbitrage for the PX3, 5 & PTA1, 5 contracts, and wait and see for options. [130][131] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The supply and demand of pure benzene are loose, and the basis of styrene is loosening. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [133][134] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Some enterprises have reduced the operating load, and the price has rebounded slightly. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [136][137] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price has declined. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [138][140] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply and demand are relatively loose. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [141][142] - **Propylene**: The operating rate is rising, and the inventory is at a high level. The trading strategy is to short at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the call option. [143][144] - **Plastic PP**: The electricity consumption of the rubber and plastic industry has decreased slightly month - on - month. The trading strategy is to hold long positions for the L main 2605 contract and try to go long on the PP main 2605 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [146][148] - **Caustic Soda**: It shows an oscillating trend. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [149][151] - **PVC**: It rebounds from the bottom. The trading strategy is to expect the price to rebound from the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [152][153] - **Soda Ash**: The price oscillates after the contract roll - over. The trading strategy is to wait and see, as the short - term price is expected to be stable. [155][159] - **Glass**: The price oscillates. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [157][160] - **Methanol**: It oscillates widely. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [162][163] - **Urea**: India has tendered again. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate in the short term and run weakly in the medium term, and wait and see for options. [165][166] - **Pulp**: The reality is weak, but the expectation is strong. Pay attention to the registration of warehouse receipts and the change of port inventory. The trading strategy is to hold the previous short positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [169][170] - **Logs**: The fundamental situation is weakening, the futures price is inverted, and pay attention to the registration of warehouse receipts. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 03 contract, gradually stop the profit of the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [171][175] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply pressure remains high, and the transmission of high pulp price is less than expected. The trading strategy is to be bearish, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the OP2602 - C - 4100 option. [176][178] - **Natural Rubber**: The accumulation of the main visible inventory has slowed down. The trading strategy is to try to short the RU main 05 contract lightly and hold long positions for the NR main 02 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [179][182] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The fixed - asset investment in the domestic rubber and plastic industry continues to slow down. The trading strategy is to hold long positions for the BR main 02 contract, hold the BR2602 - NR2602 spread, and wait and see for options. [183][185]

铁水持续回落，矿价偏空对待 * [16] A. A. K. K. GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F 0 3 1 0 5 9 1 7 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 目 录 第一部分：综合分析与交易策略 第二部分：铁矿核心逻辑分析 GALAXY FUTURES 2 逻辑分析：本周矿价走势偏弱。基本面方面，12月份以来全球铁矿发运延续平稳增加，主流矿澳洲同比基本持平，巴西矿贡献小幅增 量；非主流矿发运近一个半月持续处于高位，同比贡献较大增量，当前国内铁矿石供应宽松格局难以改变。需求端，三季度至今国内 终端用钢需求环比较快回落，近期难以看到显著好转，同时四季度以来地产、基建和制造业用钢均出现下滑，中期来看国内终端用钢 有望延续低位运行。但对铁矿来说，海外需求仍维持高增长，1-10月海外铁元素消费量同比增加3.3%/2700万吨，二季度至今海外铁 元素消费量同比处于高位，持续贡献增量。其中1-10月份海外印度粗钢产量同比增加10%/1260万吨，全年预计贡献1500万吨增量， 海外印度粗钢需求量仍维持在偏高水平。 整体来看，当前市场情绪面有所反复，但国内用钢需求较 ...

钢材：出口许可证管理范围扩大，钢价延续弱势 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 目录 | 第一章 | 钢材行情总结与展望 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 价格及利润回顾 | 5 | | 第三章 | 国内外重要宏观数据 | 12 | | 第四章 | 钢材供需以及库存情况 | 19 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 钢材总结 数据总结： 供给：本周螺纹小样本产量178.78万吨（-10.53），热卷小样本产量308.71万吨（-5.6）。247家钢厂高炉铁水日 均229.2万吨（-3.1），富宝49家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率34.5%（+1.4）。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本在3361 （折盘面）元/吨左右，电炉平电利润-72.76元/吨左右，谷电成本3196（折理记）元左右，华东三线螺纹谷电利润 +92元/吨。近期本周电炉成本小幅上升，废钢供应增加，而钢材价格小幅下跌，导致电炉利润小幅下滑，但整体维持 一定利润水平，电炉产能利用率有所上升，废钢日耗增至51.09万吨，环比略增，预计后续有继续增产空间；长流程 钢利润维持小幅盈利，铁 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡，最终报收 1630（0/0%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价平稳，成交乏力，河南出厂报 1600-1620 元/吨，山东小颗粒 出厂报 1660-1670 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1670-1680 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1570-1580 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1610-1620 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1520-1570 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】12 月 16 日，尿素行业日产 19.51 万吨，较上一工日增加 0.05 万吨；较去 年同期增加 1.44 万吨；今日开工率 80.67%，较去年同期 79.95%提升 0.72%。 【逻辑分析】 主流地区出厂价下跌，市场情绪表现平稳，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价喜爱跌，成 交一般。山东地区主流出厂报价弱稳，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率下滑，原 料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商开 始出货，新单成交清淡，个别工厂降价收单，但成交稀少，预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河 南地区市场情绪偏弱，出厂报 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 16 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日份 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日份 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 格 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 108.24 | 108.99 | -0.75 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.53 | 7.57 | -0.04 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | ...

【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡，最终报收 2129（+11/+0.52%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1940 元/吨，北线报价 1960 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2020 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1900 元/吨，山西地区报价 2010 元/吨，河南地区报价 2110 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2190 元/吨，鲁北报价 2220 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2130 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2100 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2100 元/吨，宁波报价 2110 元/吨，广州报价 2060 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期(20251206-20251212）国际甲醇（除中国）产量为 914499 吨，较上周下降 30956 吨，装置产能利用率为 62.69%，较上周下降 2.12%。 研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 甲醇日报 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 450 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽 松。进口端，美金价格小幅上涨，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，暂未招标，非伊开工提升， 外 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 16 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 13940 | -60 | 172,925 | -62960 | 286,672 | -60453 | | CF05合约 | 13945 | -45 | 365,259 | 39588 | 713,587 | 34708 | | CF09合约 | 14120 | -45 | 19,927 | 1914 | 28,836 | 2126 | | CY01合约 | 19855 | -40 | 160 | -161 | 945 | -74 | | CY05合约 | 20040 | -20 | 36 | 2 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3114 | 3122 | -8 | 01-05 | -420 | -438 | 18 | | JD05 | 3534 | 3560 | -26 | 05-09 | -462 | -492 | 30 | | JD09 | 3996 | 4052 | -56 | 09-01 | 882 | 930 | -48 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 0.00 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.00 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.58 ...

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 研究员：贾瑞林 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 收盘价 涨跌幅 | | 涨跌 | | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2512 | 1,631.5 | -18.3 | -1.11% | 212.0 | -22.63% | 2,566.0 | -5.80% | | EC2602 | 1,686.8 | -59.2 | -3.39% | 27,798.0 | -1.69% | 32,483.0 | -1.76% | | EC2604 | 1,112.7 | -37.0 | -3.22% | 7,16 ...

研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 783.5 | 777.0 | 6.5 | I01-I05 | 22.5 | 24.0 | -1.5 | | DCE05 | 761.0 | 753.0 | 8.0 | I05-I09 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 0.0 | | DCE09 | 739.5 | 731.5 | 8.0 | I09-I01 | -44.0 | -45.5 | 1.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 773 | 775 | -2 | 839 | 54 | 78 | 100 | | 纽曼粉 | 776 | 781 | -5 | 849 | 64 | 88 | 109 | | 麦克粉 | 774 | 774 | 0 | 855 | 70 | 94 | 115 | | 金布巴粉(60.5%) | 731 | 7 ...