1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market is affected by factors such as feed cost, supply, and demand. Currently, the egg price has increased, but the market lacks continuous upward momentum. The supply is expected to face pressure in the future, and it is recommended to short the June contract [5][13][17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.24 yuan/jin, up 0.16 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.38 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from last Friday. The egg price rebounded at the beginning of the week but lacked continuous upward momentum, and most producing areas stopped rising and stabilized near the weekend. The price of old hens rose first and then stabilized, and the market supply and demand were in a stalemate [5] 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - The egg shipping volume in the main producing areas showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. The total volume fluctuated little. From March 13th, the national main producing areas' egg chicken culling volume was 12.6 million, an increase of 15% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 505 days, an increase of 3 days from the previous week. In February, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and 3.4% year - on - year. The monthly egg chicken chick output of sample enterprises in February was 43.3 million, with little change from the previous month and a 5% year - on - year decrease [10] 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - The feed cost increased this week. As of March 20th, the corn price was around 2454 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 3372 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2729 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 3 yuan/jin for single - jin eggs. The single - jin egg cost increased month - on - month. The average egg price increased this week, so the single - jin egg profit increased. As of March 13th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.31 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous week. On March 6th, the expected profit of egg chicken farming was - 11.18 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.67 yuan/jin from the previous week [13] 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - The price in the main selling areas increased synchronously this week. The egg sales volume in the national representative selling areas was 6864 tons, an increase of 4.3% from last week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The production - link inventory decreased month - on - month, and the circulation - link inventory increased month - on - month. The vegetable price index and the pork price rebounded slightly [16] 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - The trading logic is that the overall capacity reduction has slowed down, and it is expected that there will still be supply pressure in the future. It is recommended to short the June contract on rallies. For single - side trading, short the June contract on rallies; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [17] 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Egg Chicken Farming Situation - Not provided with specific data analysis content in the given text 3.2.2 Spread and Basis - The text provides the basis and spread data of different contract months (such as January, May, September) from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is given [24][25][28]

铜周报：地缘政治风险增加，铜价重心下移 研究员： 王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022141 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 内外盘价格走势 4 第三章 铜基本面分析及周度数据跟踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析及操作策略 宏观面 鲍威尔发表鹰派言论，交易员预计今年降息概率仅50%。美伊冲突局势波动反复，市场担忧滞胀加息或引发衰退，铜价最低跌至92000元/吨下方。 铜矿 GALAXY FUTURES 3 铜现货市场 精铜 GALAXY FUTURES 2 3月20日SMM进口铜精矿指数（周）报-67.32美元/吨，较上一期的-60.39美元/吨减少6.93美元/吨。港口库存减少到51.2万实物吨，较上一期减少0.66万实物吨。 废铜 受铜价跳水影响贸易商捂货情绪加重，而含税废铜持续收紧也引发价格高企，周内高质量含税废铜（T2）基本与盘面电铜价格持平，购入后对企业利润形成较大冲击，目前废 铜周度贸易商仅为往年同期水平的 50%，企业反馈废铜供应不足态势明显，预计次周国内废铜供应将延续感官紧张，或将进一步延伸至铜冶炼企业。 霍尔木兹海峡若长时间无法解 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The apple market maintains a differentiated pattern with the west being strong and the east being stable. Good - quality apples have better trading than medium and low - grade ones. The price of good - quality apples in Shaanxi has risen slightly due to supply shortages and pre - stocking by merchants. The market sales are slow, and downstream wholesalers have low enthusiasm for purchasing. Although the apple fundamentals are strong, the upward momentum of the May contract is insufficient, and the market will gradually focus on the new - season apple production [6][16] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Apple Spot Analysis - The apple market shows a pattern of "strong in the west and stable in the east". Good - quality apples have better trading. In Shaanxi, the supply of good - quality apples is tight, and the price has risen slightly. In Shandong, the market is stable, with slow cold - storage trading. In the sales areas, the overall sales are slow, and the wholesalers' purchasing enthusiasm is low. The main产区 prices: In Shandong, the prices are stable, with different prices for different grades and varieties. In Shaanxi, the trading of good - quality apples is good, and the price has increased [6] 3.2 Supply Analysis - As of March 12, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 33.72%, 2.29 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.01 percentage points this week, and the de - stocking rate is 39.65%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 39.42%, with a 1.55 - percentage - point decrease this week. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 29.57%, with a 2.21 - percentage - point decrease. In Gansu, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 27.72%, with a 2.12 - percentage - point decrease. As of March 11, 2026, the national main - producing areas' apple cold - storage inventory is 499.72 tons, a decrease of 27.82 tons from last week [11] 3.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of morning arrival vehicles has slightly increased, with an average of 24 vehicles per day. The market prices of different varieties and specifications of apples are given. The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on March 12 is 7.76 yuan/kg, slightly down from last Friday but at a high level in recent years. The profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2025 - 2026 production season is about 0.35 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.05 yuan/jin from last week [14] 3.4 Trading Strategy - For the May contract, it is recommended to leave the market and wait and see. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [15][16] 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Apple Supply and Demand Situation**: Data on apple export, planting area, consumption, production, and deep - processing volume are presented [20] - **Inventory and Shipment**: Data on national and regional cold - storage inventory and shipment trends are provided [11][23] - **Price Difference and Basis**: Data on the basis of different months and price differences between different contracts are presented [28]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation is weak with hawkish monetary policies, tense geopolitical situations, and market trading of recession which drags down the non - ferrous sector. However, there is cost support in the industry. For nickel, the supply - demand relationship is tightening marginally due to factors such as supply disruptions and approaching peak demand season. For stainless steel, downstream demand is weak, and the supply may be relatively abundant in April [7][10]. - For nickel trading, wait for the trading logic to switch. Consider buying after the macro - sentiment stabilizes and use protective option strategies. For stainless steel trading, expect weak and volatile prices in the short - term and temporarily hold off on arbitrage [7][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Spread Tracking and Inventory 1.1 Spread Data - From March 16th to March 20th, the Shanghai - London ratio, spot import profit and loss, LME nickel premium/discount, and various nickel and stainless - steel spreads and premiums showed different changes. For example, the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.01 compared to the end of last month, and the spot import profit increased by 397 compared to the end of last week [11]. 1.2 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory - Global visible nickel inventory reached 374,000 tons and started to decline by 187 tons this week. Although domestic inventory increased by 959 tons, LME inventory decreased by 1,146 tons. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained stable, and the supply shortage situation was alleviated [18]. 1.3 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory - The social inventory of stainless steel is being depleted. However, if steel mills maintain high - level production and normal shipments while demand is weak, the supply may be relatively abundant in April [10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Pure Nickel 2.1.1 Production and Import - In January 2026, refined nickel production increased by 26% year - on - year to 37,700 tons, reaching a historical high. In February, it decreased by 5% month - on - month to about 35,800 tons due to the Spring Festival. In March, production is expected to return to normal and reach a new high. From January to February 2026, the net import of refined nickel was 32,900 tons, compared with a net export of 1,543 tons last year [27]. 2.1.2 Consumption - In 2025, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 2% year - on - year to 291,000 tons. From January to February 2026, it decreased by 8% year - on - year. The SMM survey showed that the PMI of nickel downstream industries fell below the 50 - point boom - bust line in February. Consumption is expected to rebound significantly in March [31]. 2.2 Stainless Steel 2.2.1 Raw Materials - Nickel Ore - The price of nickel ore from Indonesia and the Philippines has flattened. The price of high - nickel iron has declined, and domestic nickel - iron factories are cautious in raw material procurement. The supply of domestic nickel ore is tight, and the price is strong [33]. 2.2.2 Raw Materials - NPI - The price of NPI is under pressure. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia is increasing, and the inventory of NPI in China is at a certain level [35][36]. 2.2.3 Raw Materials - Chromium - The price of chromium - based products has increased. Zimbabwe imposed a 10% tax on the export of chromium - based products starting from January 1, 2026, causing the price of chromium ore to rebound. The long - term procurement price of high - carbon chromium iron by Tsingshan Group in April 2026 increased compared to March [48]. 2.2.4 Raw Materials - Steel Mill Profits - Steel mills are currently experiencing losses in immediate - term profits. The cost of cold - rolled stainless steel is relatively high, with the estimated cold - rolled cash cost at around 14,850 yuan/ton and the integrated cost at 14,350 yuan/ton [50]. 2.2.5 Supply - The production of stainless - steel crude steel in China and Indonesia in January - February 2026 was 7.026 million tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. The import of stainless steel decreased by 26% year - on - year, the export decreased by 35% year - on - year, and the net export decreased by 42% year - on - year [61]. 2.2.6 Demand - The shipbuilding industry is in a boom cycle and provides support for stainless - steel demand. Other terminal industries, especially the real - estate industry, have an unoptimistic growth rate [63]. 2.3 New Energy Vehicles 2.3.1 Vehicle Sales and Battery Production - In February 2026, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles decreased year - on - year. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 694,000 and 796,000 respectively, a year - on - year decline of 21.8% and 14.2%. The production of power cells from January to February increased by 33% year - on - year, mainly due to the significant increase in the battery capacity per vehicle [70]. 2.3.2 Global Market - In January 2026, global new - energy vehicle sales decreased by 6% year - on - year. European new - energy vehicle sales increased by 22.1% year - on - year, while US new - energy vehicle sales decreased by 25% year - on - year. From January to February 2026, China's new - energy vehicle exports increased by 108% year - on - year [78]. 2.3.3 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Supply and Demand - In 2026, the national subsidy favors mid - to - high - end new - energy vehicles, and the battery capacity per vehicle has increased significantly, which is beneficial to ternary materials and their raw materials. From January to February 2026, the production of sulfuric acid nickel, ternary precursors, and ternary cathode materials in China increased year - on - year [80]. 2.3.4 Intermediate Products - From January to February 2026, the production of MHP in Indonesia increased by 12% year - on - year to 79,000 metal tons, and the production of high - grade nickel matte increased by 87% year - on - year to 65,700 metal tons [83]. 2.4 Supply - Demand Outlook - The supply - demand situation may improve marginally in mid - to - late March [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Macro sentiment and Myanmar's accelerated resumption of production are suppressing the tin market, and downstream demand orders have not shown a significant recovery, causing tin prices to decline under pressure and fluctuate [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Aspect - The US PPI in February rose 3.4% year-on-year, higher than the market expectation of 3.0% and significantly accelerating from the previous value of 2.9%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly dropped to 205,000, the lowest this year. Fed Chair Powell made hawkish remarks, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged and raised inflation expectations. After the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, the market postponed the expectation of interest rate cuts to 2027. Later, positive remarks from Israel and the US's relaxation of crude oil supply policies eased the situation, and the decline of tin prices narrowed and recovered [3] 3.2 Tin Ore - In February 2026, China's tin ore imports were 17,100 tons (equivalent to about 5,034 metal tons), a month-on-month decrease of 3.69% and a year-on-year increase of 96.04%. The cumulative imports from January to February were 35,000 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 88.05%. At the beginning of 2026, Myanmar's supply significantly recovered, with cumulative imports of 13,501 physical tons from January to February, a year-on-year surge of 174.96%, and the proportion quickly rebounded from 26.42% in the same period of 2025 to 38.63%. The recovery of Myanmar's supply was the main reason for the increase in total imports. Imports from sources other than Myanmar also increased simultaneously, with a cumulative 21,444 tons from January to February, a year-on-year increase of 56.79%, indicating the promotion of diversification but with a slower growth rate than Myanmar [7] 3.3 Refined Tin Production and Imports/Exports - In February 2026, China's refined tin production was 11,490 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.06% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.91%. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday and tight raw materials, the supply of tin ore in Yunnan showed a seasonal decline in February. It is expected that domestic smelters will gradually resume production in March, and the supply is expected to gradually recover. In February, the production of recycled refined tin was 1,770 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 46.69% and a year-on-year decrease of 40.2%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative imports of tin ingots were 3,269 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.22%, indicating weak overall demand. In January, the imports were 1,101 tons, and in February, they were 2,168 tons (a month-on-month surge of 96.91% and a year-on-year increase of only 16%), and the jump was mainly due to the disturbance of the arrival rhythm. From January to February 2026, the exports of tin ingots were 2,819 tons, a year-on-year sharp decrease of 37.41%. In February, the exports were 1,216 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 24.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 48.76% [7] 3.4 Inventory - During the week, Shanghai tin fell below the key point, and the social inventory of tin ingots decreased significantly. As of March 20, the total social inventory of SMM tin ingots in three places was 10,977 tons, a decrease of 2,380 tons compared with last week's inventory data. The LME inventory decreased by 35 tons to 8,920 tons [4] 3.5 Consumption - The performance of the traditional consumption peak season was lower than expected. Downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. The overall transaction in the spot market was first dull and then active, and there was concentrated bargain hunting when the price dropped sharply to a low level [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global aluminum market has a continuous supply - demand gap. Supply - side constraints from domestic policies and overseas power issues are strong, with a low probability of unexpected increments. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain high profits to promote overseas production/复产 to fill the long - term supply - demand gap. The financial and resource attributes of aluminum prices are strongly driven by global geopolitical issues, the US mid - term elections, and China's "15th Five - Year Plan" start. Demand has bright spots in energy transformation and lightweighting. [4] - The Middle East geopolitical conflict has affected aluminum production in the region. Before the further expansion of aluminum production cuts in the Middle East, concerns about economic weakness may lead to capital outflows and a callback in aluminum prices, but the decline may be relatively moderate due to the 600,000 - ton production cut in local aluminum plants. If the conflict continues until mid - April, there is a risk of further expansion of production cuts, and the divergence between financial attribute drag and fundamental bullish factors will be more obvious. [4] - For alumina, the Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to rising shipping and domestic road transport prices. Guinea is about to introduce bauxite export restrictions, but downstream buyers are reluctant to accept the price increase. Domestic alumina new projects are about to start production, and alumina prices are expected to be under pressure. [102] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Aluminum Fundamentals - The global aluminum market has a supply - demand gap. Supply - side constraints include domestic policies and overseas power issues, with low probability of unexpected increments. The price elasticity is expanding, and the supply - side's risk - resistance ability is weak. [4] - The financial and resource attributes of aluminum prices are strongly driven by global geopolitical issues, the US mid - term elections, and China's "15th Five - Year Plan" start. Demand has bright spots in energy transformation and lightweighting. [4] Transaction Strategies - Unilateral: Before the further expansion of aluminum production cuts in the Middle East, economic weakness concerns may lead to capital outflows and a callback in aluminum prices, but the decline may be relatively moderate. If the conflict continues until mid - April, there is a risk of further expansion of production cuts, and aluminum prices may rise impulsively and then fall with the sector. [4] - Arbitrage: After the geopolitical conflict eases, there is an expectation of convergence in the domestic - overseas price difference. [4] Impact of Middle East Geopolitical Conflict - Aluminum smelting enterprises in the Middle East have reduced their operating rates. The current production cut volume has not exceeded the expectation in early March. Enterprises are actively looking for other transportation routes to supplement raw materials, and the next observation window for production cuts is in early April. [4][5] - Before the expansion of production cuts, the upward momentum of aluminum prices has weakened. The pessimistic expectations of economic recession and demand decline due to high oil prices are transmitted to aluminum prices through financial and commodity attributes, especially when the net long positions of LME aluminum speculative funds are still relatively high. [4] Supply - side Situation - Global and Chinese electrolytic aluminum production data from 2023 - 2026 are presented, showing trends in production volume and growth rate. [63][64] - Domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity changes are listed, including new investments, expansions, and production cuts in different regions and enterprises from 2024 - 2026. [70][71] Demand - side Situation - In the photovoltaic field, in January 2026, the output of photovoltaic modules was 35.2GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5GW. In 2025, the annual output of modules was 563.2GW, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.2%. The short - term demand for photovoltaic modules is uncertain. [79] - In the automotive field, in February 2026, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, but exports maintained high growth. New energy vehicle production and sales also decreased year - on - year. [83] - In the real estate field, from January - February 2026, real estate development enterprise construction area, new construction area, and completion area all decreased year - on - year. [86] - In the power investment and cable field, during the "15th Five - Year Plan", China's power grid construction investment will exceed 5 trillion yuan. In February 2026, the output of aluminum rods was 287,000 tons, and the cumulative output from January - February was 623,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 5.46%. [90] - In the home appliance field, in March 2026, the total production plan of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased by 4.0% compared with the same period last year. [93] - In the export field, in February 2026, China exported 430,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products. From January - February, the cumulative export was 971,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. With the increase in export profits, the export volume of aluminum products is expected to continue to increase. [96] Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance Outlook - The global electrolytic aluminum balance table from 2018 - 2030 is provided, including global production, demand, balance, overseas production, demand, net export, and balance, as well as China's production, demand, net import + strategic reserve release, and balance. [97] Alumina Alumina Strategy Outlook - Macro aspect: The Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to rising shipping and domestic road transport prices. [102] - Raw material aspect: Guinea is about to introduce bauxite export restrictions, but downstream buyers are reluctant to accept the price increase. [102] - Supply aspect: As of Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 93.7 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last week. In Guizhou and Guangxi, there will be planned roasting furnace maintenance, and a new alumina project in Guangxi is about to start production, with expected output in mid - to late April. [102][111] - Transaction strategies: Unilateral: Domestic new projects are about to start production, and alumina prices are expected to be under pressure. Arbitrage and options: Temporary wait - and - see. [102] Alumina Capacity and Supply - The national alumina operating capacity has a narrow - range fluctuation. The southwest region has new projects about to start production. [109][111] - The alumina supply - demand balance situation is presented, including production, demand, and inventory changes. [110] Alumina Cost and Profit - In February 2026, the national alumina weighted full - cost was 2,604 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 63 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 656 yuan/ton. The average profit of the alumina industry was 22 yuan/ton. [120] - The cost and profit of alumina in different regions are compared, with some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi maintaining full - cost profitability. [118][119] Alumina Inventory - As of March 19, the national alumina inventory was 5.369 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from last week. The inventory of production enterprises at both ends has decreased, and the market variables are mainly concentrated in ports and public warehouses. [123] Alumina Import and Export - There is a real - time import profit in the alumina market. Due to the significant decline in oil prices, the sea freight of alumina from Australia to China's main ports decreased by about 2 US dollars on March 10. [126][131] New Alumina Projects - Overseas and domestic new alumina projects are listed, including the production capacity and progress of projects in different countries and regions from 2024 - 2028. [134][136] Bauxite Situation - The price of Guinea bauxite has increased, and the 45/3 bauxite sea - floating spot transaction price has reached 64 US dollars/dry ton. [138] - The arrival data of bauxite at major ports, the shipping volume of Guinea bauxite, and the price comparison of domestic and overseas bauxite are presented. [139][140] - The theoretical available days of Chinese bauxite inventory are analyzed. [141][142] Alumina Supply - Demand Balance - The global metallurgical - grade alumina supply - demand balance forecast from 2017 - 2027 is provided, including global production, demand, balance, overseas production, demand, net export, and balance, as well as China's production, demand, net import, and balance. [148] - The alumina cost calculation corresponding to the price of Guinea bauxite is presented. [149]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a daily summary of Treasury bond futures positions on March 20, 2026, including closing prices, trading volumes, trading amounts, open interest, and margin details for different contract varieties and maturities [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Transaction Summary - **T Series Contracts**: The total trading volume of T series contracts was 77,953, a decrease of 9% compared to the previous day; the total trading amount was 84.4 billion, also a decrease of 9%; the total open interest was 305,548, a decrease of 3,521; the total margin for open positions was 6.62 billion [3] - **TF Series Contracts**: The total trading volume of TF series contracts was 78,690, an increase of 7% compared to the previous day; the total trading amount was 83.4 billion, an increase of 7%; the total open interest was 192,513, an increase of 601; the total margin for open positions was 2.45 billion [3] - **TL Series Contracts**: The total trading volume of TL series contracts was 90,333, an increase of 1% compared to the previous day; the total trading amount was 10 billion, an increase of 1%; the total open interest was 159,690, an increase of 5,344; the total margin for open positions was 6.18 billion [3] - **TS Series Contracts**: The total trading volume of TS series contracts was 38,886, a decrease of 13% compared to the previous day; the total trading amount was 7.97 billion, a decrease of 13%; the total open interest was 80,079, an increase of 1,483; the total margin for open positions was 0.82 billion [3] 3.2 Net Position of Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides the net position trends of TS, T, TF, and TL Treasury bond futures from October 9 to March 3, including the net positions of the top five, top ten, and top twenty holders [5][6][7] 3.3 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures Position - **2606 Contract**: The top five buyers held a total of 34,717 contracts, an increase of 1,442, with a nominal amount change of 2.96 billion and a position share of 45.0%, an increase of 0.7%; the top five sellers held a total of 47,881 contracts, an increase of 429, with a nominal amount change of 0.88 billion and a position share of 62.0%, a decrease of 1.6% [9] - **2609 Contract**: All trading volume, long and short positions of the top twenty holders were 0 [11] 3.4 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures Position - **2606 Contract**: The top five buyers held a total of 100,076 contracts, an increase of 190, with a nominal amount change of 0.2 billion and a position share of 57.6%, unchanged; the top five sellers held a total of 93,656 contracts, an increase of 368, with a nominal amount change of 0.39 billion and a position share of 53.9%, an increase of 0.1% [13] - **2609 Contract**: The top five buyers held a total of 9,204 contracts, a decrease of 6, with a nominal amount change of - 0.01 billion and a position share of 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3%; the top five sellers held a total of 14,415 contracts, a decrease of 32, with a nominal amount change of - 0.03 billion and a position share of 78.4%, a decrease of 1.2% [15] 3.5 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures Position - **Overall**: The top five buyers held a total of 162,333 contracts, a decrease of 3,131, with a nominal amount change of - 3.39 billion and a position share of 56.2%, a decrease of 0.4%; the top five sellers held a total of 146,600 contracts, an increase of 372, with a nominal amount change of 0.4 billion and a position share of 50.7%, an increase of 0.8% [16] - **2606 Contract**: No separate detailed data provided - **2609 Contract**: The top five buyers held a total of 9,577 contracts, with a nominal amount change of 0.02 billion and a position share of 59.1%, a decrease of 0.3%; the top five sellers held a total of 9,873 contracts, an increase of 64, with a nominal amount change of 0.07 billion and a position share of 61.0%, unchanged [19] 3.6 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures Position - **2606 Contract**: The top five buyers held a total of 69,878 contracts, an increase of 439, with a nominal amount change of 0.49 billion and a position share of 52.0%, a decrease of 1.4%; the top five sellers held a total of 71,246 contracts, an increase of 2,086, with a nominal amount change of 2.31 billion and a position share of 53.0%, a decrease of 0.2% [21] - **2609 Contract**: The top five buyers held a total of 15,866 contracts, an increase of 404, with a nominal amount change of 0.45 billion and a position share of 63.5%, a decrease of 0.9%; the top five sellers held a total of 17,613 contracts, an increase of 512, with a nominal amount change of 0.57 billion and a position share of 70.5%, a decrease of 0.7% [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the caustic soda market prices generally increased, with a slight contraction in supply and a slight decline in demand. Chlor - alkali enterprises' profits turned from profit to loss, and the losses expanded. The prices of Shandong 32% ion - membrane caustic soda and Wuhai 99% flake caustic soda increased by 2.18% and 3.45% respectively. The weekly average prices of low - and high - concentration liquid caustic soda in various regions all rose, and the prices in the main flake caustic soda production areas generally increased, except for a slight decline in Ningxia. The national chlor - alkali enterprise operating load rate dropped to 89.54%, and the caustic soda production in terms of 100% purity decreased to 871,200 tons. The maintenance loss doubled. The liquid caustic soda inventories in Shandong and East China decreased, and the production of flake caustic soda produced by the molten salt method slightly increased. The operating rates of alumina and viscose staple fiber decreased by 0.22 and 4.54 percentage points respectively, and the overall downstream demand was tepid. In terms of profitability, enterprises with self - owned power plants in Shandong had an average loss of 7.52 yuan/ton for ECU, and the loss of enterprises without self - owned power plants widened to 204.13 yuan/ton, mainly because the decline in liquid chlorine prices exceeded the increase in liquid caustic soda prices. Currently, there are many export inquiries, and there is still room for price increases in 32% caustic soda. With the continuous and escalating overseas conflicts, it is expected that caustic soda will fluctuate next week [4]. - The trading strategies are: for unilateral trading, caustic soda will fluctuate; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Market Conditions**: This week, the caustic soda market prices generally increased. The supply slightly contracted, and the demand slightly declined. Chlor - alkali enterprises' profits turned from profit to loss, and the losses expanded. The prices of Shandong 32% ion - membrane caustic soda and Wuhai 99% flake caustic soda increased by 2.18% and 3.45% respectively. The weekly average prices of low - and high - concentration liquid caustic soda in various regions all rose, and the prices in the main flake caustic soda production areas generally increased, except for a slight decline in Ningxia [4]. - **Supply**: The national chlor - alkali enterprise operating load rate dropped to 89.54%, and the caustic soda production in terms of 100% purity decreased to 871,200 tons. The maintenance loss doubled. The liquid caustic soda inventories in Shandong and East China decreased, and the production of flake caustic soda produced by the molten salt method slightly increased [4]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of alumina and viscose staple fiber decreased by 0.22 and 4.54 percentage points respectively, and the overall downstream demand was tepid [4]. - **Profitability**: Enterprises with self - owned power plants in Shandong had an average loss of 7.52 yuan/ton for ECU, and the loss of enterprises without self - owned power plants widened to 204.13 yuan/ton, mainly because the decline in liquid chlorine prices exceeded the increase in liquid caustic soda prices [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: caustic soda will fluctuate; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Alumina Market**: This week, the domestic alumina spot prices continued to rise, and the increase expanded. Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the expected tightening of Guinea's ore export policy, the industry is worried about the impact of global inflation expectations and the increase in medium - term alumina production costs, so some downstream enterprises increased their procurement appropriately. This week, the operation of national alumina enterprises was relatively stable, with only normal maintenance of the roasting furnaces of individual southern alumina enterprises. Currently, most alumina enterprises using imported ores use 60 - 62 US dollars per ton of ores. With the support of the rising domestic spot prices, the industry's profits have been repaired, and enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain stable production. As of this Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 93.7 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last week, and an operating rate of 81.7%. Excluding 10 million tons of zombie production capacity (production capacity that has not been in operation for more than a year), the operating rate this week was 89.7%. Next weekend, one alumina enterprise in Guizhou and one in Guangxi will carry out planned roasting furnace maintenance, with an expected maintenance time of about 10 - 12 days. At the same time, a new alumina project in Guangxi is about to start production, and it is expected that finished products will be produced in mid - to late April. With the co - existence of maintenance and new production in the southern market, there are expectations for adjustments in the market supply situation [18]. - **Caustic Soda Market**: The caustic soda market prices generally increased this week. The supply slightly contracted, and the demand slightly declined. Chlor - alkali enterprises' profits turned from profit to loss, and the losses expanded. With the continuous and escalating overseas conflicts, it is expected that caustic soda will fluctuate next week [4]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory**: As of March 19, 2026, the inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 500,700 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 6.28% from the previous week and an increase of 20.22% year - on - year. This week, the inventory - to - capacity ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 28.02%, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous week. The inventory - to - capacity ratios of liquid caustic soda in the northwest, north, central, east, and south regions all declined. In the north region, the overall inventory of 50% caustic soda in Shandong was under no pressure under the drive of export order inquiries and the overall bullish market sentiment. The sales performance of low - concentration caustic soda in each factory varied, but after the price increase stabilized, most of them basically maintained a balance of rigid demand. However, the purchase price of the main downstream has not been adjusted, and after the factory did not have continuous price increases, the mentality of some industry players has changed. But judging from the current inventory - to - capacity ratio of Shandong liquid caustic soda, the inventory pressure is not large. Overall, the inventory in the north region showed a decline. In the east region, due to the continuous positive situation in the high - concentration caustic soda market, the downstream buying sentiment was strong, and the enterprise inventory decreased rapidly, which drove up the price of low - concentration caustic soda, and enterprises appropriately reduced their inventory. Therefore, overall, the inventory in the east region showed a decline after the Spring Festival. In the south region, driven by the rising price of northern caustic soda, with the downstream's buying sentiment, the regional inventory - to - capacity ratio showed a decline. In the central region, with the continuous increase in the price of goods from southwest Shandong, the downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, the actual transaction price in Henan increased, and an enterprise in Hubei was under maintenance, resulting in a shortage of liquid caustic soda supply, and the inventory in the central region decreased. In the northwest region, the sales atmosphere of liquid caustic soda was good, the non - aluminum demand increased, the sales of high - concentration caustic soda improved, some enterprises executed previous orders, the price of liquid caustic soda continued to rise, and the liquid caustic soda inventory decreased. In the southwest region, the chlor - alkali profit continued to increase, the enterprise operation rate increased, the impact of external goods decreased, the downstream demand was stable, the price of liquid caustic soda in the southwest region increased, and the liquid caustic soda inventory fluctuated slightly [13]. - **Production**: This week (March 13 - 19, 2026), the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 100,000 tons and above in China was 83.9%, a decrease of 1.4% from the previous week. During the week, the chlor - alkali loads in the north and central regions declined, while in the south, the load in Guangxi increased due to the resumption of some previously maintained equipment. In the southwest, due to the trial operation of two newly added chlor - alkali equipment without commercial output, the local load declined. Next week, there will be both equipment maintenance and expected partial restart in the north region, and most of the maintenance in other regions is concentrated in April. Therefore, it is estimated that the national chlor - alkali load will remain around 84% next week [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's hawkish stance and the expected prolongation of the Middle - East situation have led to a recession trading sentiment in the market. This week, crude oil prices continued to rise while non - ferrous and precious metals declined. The conflict between the US and Iran may escalate, and the impact on the Strait of Hormuz is likely to persist, keeping oil prices high. High energy prices will suppress economic vitality, and if the conflict persists, economic recession will be gradually priced in [15][22]. - This week, soda ash mainly showed a downward trend. On the supply side, weekly production increased by 1.1% to 818,000 tons, reaching a new high. On the demand side, market sentiment weakened, and downstream restocking intention decreased at new prices. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 78,000 tons. It is expected that soda ash will maintain a weak trend next week, with a unilateral weak - oscillating trend, an arbitrage strategy of waiting and seeing, and an option strategy of selling calls [15]. - Glass showed a weak trend this week. On the supply side, the daily melting volume of glass decreased to 146,000 tons, approaching the supply - demand balance value predicted in the annual report. On the demand side, speculative demand improved, and spot prices followed suit. In terms of inventory, factory inventory decreased by 1.8% to 74.436 million heavy boxes. It is expected that glass prices will oscillate widely with a weakening direction, with a unilateral weak - oscillating trend, an arbitrage strategy of waiting and seeing, and an option strategy of selling calls [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Supply - This week, soda ash production was 818,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons (+1.1%), with both heavy and light soda increasing. The daily production of soda ash was above 113,000 - 119,000 tons, and the daily production of Boyuan decreased slightly to about 18,000 tons. The overall supply increased slightly, with Tianjin Alkali Works resuming operation after reducing load and Boyuan Yingen Phase I gradually starting rotational maintenance [8]. - According to the data from March 20, 2026, soda ash production was 818,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 165,800 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 86.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 percentage points [67]. - Multiple soda ash production enterprises had equipment maintenance or production reduction situations, such as Boyuan Yingen, Henan Junhua, Jiangsu Huachang, etc. [85] 3.1.2 Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash was 896,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.6%. The apparent demand for heavy soda was 461,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 7.3%), and for light soda was 435,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 10.1%). The daily melting volume of float glass was 145,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,100 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass was 89,400 tons, remaining stable. This week, the futures price weakened, and the mid - stream shipments increased to about 55,000 tons. The downstream was waiting and seeing the current price, the mid - stream was shipping, and the upstream was processing pending orders [11]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream: The soda ash factory inventory decreased by 78,000 tons to 1.854 million tons, with heavy soda inventory decreasing by 27,000 tons and light soda inventory decreasing by 51,000 tons. In terms of regions, the factory inventory in the northwest decreased by 50,000 tons to 771,000 tons, in the southwest decreased by 2,000 tons to 589,000 tons, and in the north decreased by 14,000 tons to 164,000 tons [14]. - Mid - stream: The mid - stream inventory increased slightly, with the social inventory increasing by 4% to 289,000 tons [14]. - Downstream: The downstream purchased on demand. According to the previous statistics of Longzhong, for the soda ash inventory of float glass, in 33% of the samples, the inventory in the factory was 19.92 days, an increase of 0.36 days, and the inventory in the factory and pending orders was 30.50 days, an increase of 1.24 days [14]. 3.1.4 Price - In the spot market, the prices of heavy soda in some regions decreased slightly, such as the northwest heavy soda (ex - factory) price decreasing by 20 yuan/ton to 950 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the prices of SA05, SA09, and SA01 contracts all decreased, with SA05 down 39 yuan/ton, SA09 down 35 yuan/ton, and SA01 down 27 yuan/ton [26]. 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Supply - This week, one production line each in South China and Southwest China stopped production. The current daily production of the industry is 145,800 tons. According to the cost - calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 87.12 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19.57 yuan/ton; using coal - made gas was - 22.24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.14 yuan/ton; using petroleum coke was - 21.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14.28 yuan/ton. The cold - repair speed has accelerated, approaching the supply - demand balance value predicted in the annual report [18]. 3.2.2 Demand - On the demand side, the terminal acceptance was insufficient, and the overall shipment volume weakened slightly. This week, under the influence of external sentiment and cost pressure, some enterprises in each market were more enthusiastic about price increases, pushing up the center of spot transactions. However, as prices rose, traders and processors became more cautious in purchasing, mostly maintaining rigid - demand purchases. As of March 19, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 74.436 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.413 million heavy boxes (-1.86%), and a year - on - year increase of 7.16%. The inventory days were 33.7 days, a decrease of 0.2 days compared to the previous period. As of March 16, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 6.11 days, a week - on - week decrease of 3.74% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.6% [21]. 3.2.3 Price - In the spot market, the prices of some glass products changed slightly. For example, the price of Shahe Great Wall decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 1,036 yuan/ton, and the price of Zhejiang Great Plate increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,270 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the prices of FG05, FG09, and FG01 contracts remained stable week - on - week [136].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern in the short term due to factors such as high international oil prices and the downward adjustment of sugar production expectations in major producing countries. Domestic sugar prices are also expected to be volatile and upward - trending in the short term, influenced by high international sugar prices, high oil prices, and potential tightening of import policies, despite pressure from increased domestic production and large imports in January and February [4][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: International sugar prices are expected to be volatile and upward - trending in the short term, and Zhengzhou sugar is also expected to be volatile and upward - trending in the short term [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5]. - **Options**: Sell put options in the short term [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Market** - **Supply - demand Pattern Changes**: Multiple institutions have lowered the sugar production expectations for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons. For example, the ISO has lowered the 2025/26 global sugar production forecast by 480,000 tons, and Czarnikow has lowered it by 2.3 million tons. Datagro predicts a supply shortage of 800,000 tons in the 2025/26 season and an expansion of the shortage to 2.68 million tons in the 2026/27 season. StoneX has significantly reduced the 2025/26 global sugar surplus forecast by 70% [9]. - **Brazil**: - **End of the Pressing Season**: In the second half of January, the sugar production in the central - southern region decreased by 36.31% year - on - year, with a decrease in the sugar - making ratio and an increase in ethanol production [10]. - **Lower - than - expected Increase in Production**: As of the second half of January in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production increased by only 0.86% year - on - year, and the expected increase in production is only 300,000 - 400,000 tons, lower than the market expectation of 1 million tons [13]. - **Ethanol Production and Sales**: The current ethanol - to - sugar price is about 17.2 cents per pound, and the ethanol - to - sugar price is much higher than the current futures price of raw sugar. It is expected that the sugar - making ratio in the new pressing season starting in April will be low [18]. - **Inventory and Exports**: As of February 15, the inventory in the central - southern region was at a low level in recent years. In February, the sugar export volume increased by 22% year - on - year, but the cumulative export volume from April 2025 to February 2026 decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [23]. - **Thailand**: In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 11 million tons, an increase of 960,000 tons year - on - year. As of March 15, the cumulative sugar production increased by 5.6% year - on - year. The pressing progress has accelerated recently, but the increase in the later stage is expected to be small [26]. - **India**: The ISMA predicts that the net sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 29.3 million tons, an increase of about 12% year - on - year, but the forecast has been reduced by 160,000 tons compared with the previous one. The AISTA predicts that the sugar production may reach 28.3 million tons, a 4.4% reduction from the previous forecast [27]. - **Domestic Market** - **Production**: As of February 28, in the 2025/26 season, the sugar production in Guangxi decreased by 515,800 tons year - on - year, and the sugar production in Yunnan increased by 93,100 tons year - on - year [34]. - **Sales and Inventory**: As of February 28, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi decreased by 891,000 tons year - on - year, and the industrial inventory increased by 375,200 tons year - on - year. In Yunnan, the cumulative sugar sales decreased by 25,000 tons year - on - year, and the industrial inventory increased by 118,000 tons year - on - year [37]. - **Imports**: In January and February 2026, the cumulative sugar import volume increased by 440,900 tons year - on - year. The cumulative import volume of syrup and pre - mixed powder from October 2025 to February 2026 decreased by 305,400 tons year - on - year. The cumulative import volume of overseas sugarcane as of the end of February increased by 201,000 tons year - on - year [42]. - **Import Profits**: The import cost of sugar has increased recently, and the import profit has decreased. The profit of Brazilian sugar with additional tariffs is 220 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 320 yuan/ton [44]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking No new content other than the above is provided in the text.