粕类日报 2025 年 7 月 22 日 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 【粕类日报】扰动因素仍存 盘面大幅走强 品 种 合 约 收盘价 涨 跌 地 区 今 日 昨 日 涨 跌 0 1 3104 1 7 天津 -100 -80 -20 0 5 2760 8 东莞 -200 -200 0 0 9 3086 1 7 张家港 -180 -170 -10 日照 -180 -180 0 0 1 2437 2 2 南通 -166 -157 - 9 0 5 2377 1 1 广东 -116 -117 1 0 9 2736 9 广西 -126 -127 1 今日 昨日 涨跌 今日 昨日 涨跌 59价差 -326 -317 - 9 59价差 -359 -361 2 91价差 -18 -18 0 91价差 299 312 -13 15价差 344 335 9 15价差 6 0 4 9 1 1 今日 昨日 今日 昨日 今日 昨日 667 672 350 342 2.586 2.607 今日 昨日 涨跌 今日 昨日 涨跌 豆粕-菜粕 635 641 - 6 菜粕-葵粕 -29 -32 3 豆粕-葵粕 536 539 - 3 豆粕 菜 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 7 月 22 日 第二部分 行情研判 玉米： 美玉米种植结束，美玉米偏弱，中美关税降低，美玉米继续下跌，接下来容易炒 作天气。中国对美玉米回到 15%关税，配额内共计 26%关税，对美国高粱共计 22%关 税，国外玉米进口利润较高，8 月巴西进口价格 2007 元。今日北方港口平仓价稳定， 1 / 5 锦州港平舱价 元 吨 研究员：刘大勇 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： | 第一部分 | | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/7/22 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2250 | 6 | 0.27% | 68,742 | 25.11% | 160,671 | 2.16% | | C2605 | | 2294 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Pig Daily Report - July 22, 2025" [2] - Report type: Agricultural product research report from the Commodity Research Institute [1][5][8] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 3: Core Views - The supply pressure of live pigs continues to be reflected, and the spot price has significantly declined. The follow - up supply pressure is still expected to exist, and the further upward space of the live pig spot price is limited, with a certain downward pressure [4][6]. - The live pig futures market shows a relatively strong operation. It is expected to continue to operate strongly, while the spot price may decline due to market pressure, but the decline space is relatively limited [6]. Group 4: Price Data Summary Spot Price - The average spot price of live pigs today is 13.54 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg from yesterday. Most regions' prices have declined, with only a few regions remaining unchanged or slightly increasing [4]. Futures Price - Futures contracts such as LH01, LH03, LH05, LH09, and LH11 have all shown price increases, while LH07 remained unchanged [4]. Sow/Piglet Price - This week, the piglet price is 440 yuan, and the sow price is 1628 yuan, both remaining unchanged from last week [4]. Spot Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 90.89 yuan/head, down 42.99 yuan/head from yesterday; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 18.66 yuan/head, down 50.26 yuan/head from yesterday [4]. Contract Spread - The spreads of LH7 - 9, LH9 - 1, LH9 - 11, and LH11 - 1 have all decreased [4]. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume today is 133,605 heads, down 1472 heads from yesterday [4]. Size Pig Spread - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs is 0.43 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg; the spread between large - sized pigs and standard pigs is 0.07 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg [4]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Mainly in a range - bound operation [7]. - Arbitrage: LH91 long - short spread arbitrage [7]. - Options: Wait and see [7]

Report Title - Port continues to accumulate inventory, methanol runs weakly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The start - up rate of coal mines has declined slightly. As of July 18, the start - up rate of coal mines in Ordos is 69%, and that in Yulin is 46%. Some coal mines have stopped production. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin is around 3.7 million tons, with weak demand and weak pit - mouth prices [4]. - On the supply side, the start - up rate of coal mines in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has declined, but demand is weak. The raw coal price fluctuates, and the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest is firm. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 700 yuan/ton, and the methanol start - up rate remains stable at a high level, with continuous ample domestic supply [4]. - On the import side, the start - up rate of international methanol plants has continued to rise, the US dollar price has slightly decreased, and imports are slightly inverted. Except for the fpc plant in Iran, all other plants are operating normally. The start - up rate outside Iran has slightly increased, and the external start - up has rebounded to a new high this year. The prices in the European and American markets have slightly declined, the price difference between China and Europe has shrunk at a low level, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 370,000 tons in July. Iran has carried out price - cut tenders, and some Indian supplies have flowed to China. US dollar merchants have sold at high prices, leading to an increase in arrivals in Taicang and accelerated inventory accumulation [4]. - On the demand side, traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, and the start - up rate has declined. The start - up rate of MTO plants has increased, but some MTO plants are operating at less than full capacity. The inventory at ports has increased due to more arrivals, and the basis is firm; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4]. - Overall, the start - up rate of international plants has slightly increased, most plants in Iran have restarted, and the daily output has climbed to around 38,000 tons. Imports are gradually recovering, with an estimated import volume of 1.25 million tons in July. With the increase in arrivals, the port inventory has slightly increased. At the same time, due to the continued decline in domestic coal prices, the coal - to - methanol profit has expanded to the highest level in history, and the start - up rate of coal - to - methanol is stable, resulting in ample domestic supply. It is expected that methanol will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the recent strong rise of domestic bulk commodities provides some support [4]. - Trading strategies: For single - side trading, expect weak fluctuations; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for over - the - counter trading, sell call options [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - The core view is a comprehensive analysis of the supply, demand, inventory, and price trends of methanol in terms of raw coal, domestic supply, imports, downstream demand, etc., and gives corresponding trading strategies [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking 2. Core Data Weekly Changes - **Supply - Domestic**: As of July 17, the overall start - up load of domestic methanol plants is 71.09%, a decrease of 1.41 percentage points from last week and an increase of 5.99 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load in the northwest region is 75.59%, a decrease of 2.70 percentage points from last week and an increase of 6.48 percentage points from the same period last year. The average start - up load of non - integrated methanol plants is 66.45%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: In the period from July 12 to July 18, 2025, the output of international methanol (excluding China) is 1,056,853 tons, an increase of 19,250 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate is 72.45%, an increase of 1.32% from last week. The Apadana plant in Iran has restarted, and the overall operation of other plants in Iran is 70% - 80% [5]. - **Supply - Import**: As of 14:00 on July 16, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol in the period is 430,400 tons, including 373,400 tons by foreign vessels and 57,000 tons supplemented by domestic vessels [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of July 17, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 80.23%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points from last week. The national olefin plant start - up rate is 86.23%, and the overall start - up of the industry has slightly increased this week [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is 5.19%, remaining the same as last week. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is 93.91%, slightly decreasing this week. The formaldehyde start - up rate is 45.24%, decreasing from last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 63,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month increase of 70.27% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The inventory of production enterprises is 356,900 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 221,200 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 8.29% [5]. - **Inventory - Port**: As of July 16, 2025, the total port inventory is 790,200 tons, an increase of 71,300 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China has increased by 63,500 tons, and that in South China has increased by 7,800 tons [5]. - **Valuation**: In terms of profit, the coal - to - methanol profit in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi is around 735 yuan/ton. The price difference between the port and the northern line is 430 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the port and northern Shandong is 170 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis has weakened [5] 2. Spot Price - The spot price in Taicang is 2360 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton), and the price in the northern line is 1970 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton) [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that supply and demand were balanced, and urea mainly fluctuated. This week's view is that demand has improved month - on - month, and urea is operating strongly. Although the export port inspection policy has been relaxed, it has limited impact on the domestic spot. The Indian tender price far exceeds market expectations, and the domestic and foreign price difference is huge. It is expected that the market will be strong in the short term, but due to weak domestic demand, limited export increment, and export flow restrictions, it will mainly operate with short - term fluctuations. The trading strategy is to be neutral on the single - side, wait - and - see on the arbitrage, and sell call options on the over - the - counter [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Overview**: Some urea production plants are under maintenance, with the daily output dropping below 200,000 tons but still at the highest level in the same period. The new Indian tender price has been announced, which boosts market sentiment. The production enthusiasm of compound fertilizer in central and northern China is low, and the overall demand is declining. Although the export policy has been relaxed, the domestic demand is weak, and the export increment is limited. The trading strategy is to be neutral on the single - side, wait - and - see on the arbitrage, and sell call options on the over - the - counter [5] - **Core Data Changes**: In the 28th week of 2025 (July 10 - 16), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 86.95%, up 0.36% month - on - month; that of gas - based urea was 76.37%, down 4.61% month - on - month. In Shandong, the urea capacity utilization rate was 75.70%, up 3.34% month - on - month. In the 29th week of 2025 (July 11 - 17), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 64.24%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points from last week; the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 32.55%, up 2.72 percentage points month - on - month. As of July 18, the urea demand of compound fertilizer sample production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 800 tons, up 100 tons month - on - month. As of July 16, the average pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.06 days, up 0.12 days month - on - month. On July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 89.55 tons, a decrease of 7.22 tons from last week. The port sample inventory was 54.1 tons, an increase of 5.2 tons month - on - month. In terms of profit, the fixed - bed production profit was 220 yuan/ton, the coal - water slurry production profit was 360 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production profit was 580 yuan/ton. The basis was 10 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was 20 yuan/ton [6] 2. Weekly Data Tracking - **Mainstream Manufacturers' Factory Prices**: Not provided - **Basis**: Not provided - **Regional Spread**: Not provided - **Warehouse Receipts and Spreads**: Not provided - **Urea - Methanol Futures Spread**: Not provided - **Raw Coal Price**: Not provided - **Production Profit**: Not provided - **Urea/Ammonia, Synthetic Ammonia Spread**: Not provided - **Urea Operating Rate**: Not provided - **Urea Output**: Not provided - **Urea Pre - sales**: Not provided - **Urea Inventory**: Not provided - **Other Inventory Supply and Demand**: Not provided - **Urea and Other Nitrogen Fertilizer Ratios**: Not provided - **Compound Fertilizer**: Not provided - **Melamine**: Not provided - **Urea Export**: Not provided - **Furniture**: Not provided

Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industrial silicon industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term outlook for industrial silicon is bullish. The market sentiment is strong due to factors such as the reduction in production scale of leading large - scale manufacturers, the small - scale production capacity in the southwest region, the upcoming release of the steady - growth work plan for key industries, and the low inventory of industrial silicon factories. The price is expected to strengthen further, with a pressure level of 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the weekly output of DMC was 47,800 tons, a 1.92% increase; the weekly output of polysilicon was 23,400 tons, a 0.21% increase; the operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys remained flat. The weekly output of industrial silicon was 73,300 tons, a 1.5% increase. The number of open furnaces increased in Yunnan and Sichuan, decreased in Xinjiang, and increased in Inner Mongolia. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 547,000 tons, a 0.73% decrease, and the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang was 123,600 tons, a 0.24% decrease [3]. - **Trading Logic**: Leading large - scale manufacturers have expanded their production cuts. The restarted production capacity in the southwest consists of small - sized furnaces. It is expected that the industrial silicon output in July will decrease by 20,000 - 30,000 tons compared to June. There is a supply - demand gap before the leading large - scale manufacturers resume production. The sentiment in the industrial silicon market is strong in the short term, and the price is expected to strengthen further [3]. - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a bullish approach in the short term. For options, buy protective put options. For arbitrage, gradually take profit on the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Market Review**: This week, the industrial silicon futures first rose and then fell. Southwest manufacturers carried out large - scale hedging around 9,000 yuan. As of Friday, the main futures contract closed at 8,695 yuan/ton. The spot price of industrial silicon increased significantly, generally rising by 300 - 500 yuan/ton [6]. - **Downstream Demand**: The output of DMC increased, the output of polysilicon slightly increased, and the operating rates of aluminum alloys remained stable. It is expected that the output of organic silicon in July will be flat compared to June, and the output of polysilicon will increase [9][13]. - **Industrial Silicon Output**: The weekly output of industrial silicon increased by 1.5% this week. The number of open furnaces changed in different regions. Overall, the output in July is expected to decrease compared to June before the large - scale manufacturers in the northwest resume production [23]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: The factory inventory and social inventory decreased slightly. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.73%, and the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang decreased by 0.24%. However, the inventory of sample enterprises in Yunnan increased by 0.37%, and that in Sichuan decreased by 3.7% [24]. - **Related Product Prices**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased this week. The prices of DMC and its terminal products also strengthened [30][34]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon - Related Product Prices**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased week - on - week [30]. - **Organic Silicon - Related Product Prices**: The prices of DMC and its terminal products strengthened this week [34]. - **Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Data**: The operating rates of aluminum alloys remained stable [43]. - **Industrial Silicon Raw Material Prices**: The spot price of refined coal in Xinjiang stopped falling [45]. Report on Polysilicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the polysilicon industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term outlook for polysilicon is bullish. The price is expected to be strong next week. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of (40,000, 47,000) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the situation of manufacturers selling for delivery [51]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Comprehensive Analysis**: There are many rumors in the polysilicon market, and the main trading logic is "anti - involution" and selling at no less than cost. The increase in polysilicon price can be smoothly transmitted to the downstream. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of (40,000, 47,000) yuan/ton. The price is expected to be strong next week, and attention should be paid to the situation of manufacturers selling for delivery [51]. - **Operation Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be bullish in the short term and participate with a light position. For options, buy call options. For arbitrage, gradually take profit on the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [52]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Situation - **Polysilicon Price**: This week, the spot quotes of polysilicon manufacturers remained stable. N - type granular silicon decreased slightly. The market generally agrees on selling at no less than cost, but there are no direct high - price orders, mainly a combination of old and new orders [53][65]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Prices**: The prices of silicon wafers and batteries strengthened. Silicon wafer enterprises started to quote based on full cost, and the battery price has not been adjusted according to the benchmark cost price determined in the self - discipline meeting. Attention should be paid to the actual transaction situation next week [66][71]. - **Component Price**: The prices of components in centralized and distributed projects are expected to increase. Many manufacturers plan to raise component quotes due to the increase in the prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and batteries [80]. - **Component Fundamental Data**: In July, the orders of photovoltaic component enterprises did not improve. It is expected that the production schedule of photovoltaic components in July will be reduced to 45GW [81]. - **Battery Fundamental Data**: The inventory of professional battery manufacturers increased to 15.96GW, and the production schedule of photovoltaic battery enterprises was reduced to 54GW in July [87]. - **Silicon Wafer Fundamental Data**: This week, the silicon wafer inventory decreased to 16.02GW, the output was 13.04GW, and the production schedule in July is about 52.2GW [91]. - **Polysilicon Fundamental Data**: This week, the polysilicon output increased slightly, and the factory inventory increased to 276,800 tons. The output in July is variable due to the复产 and postponed复产 of some production capacities [94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of black metals including steel, coking coal and coke, iron ore, and ferroalloys. It points out that steel prices may maintain a high - level range - bound trend, coking coal and coke markets have increased speculation and potential price increases but with uncertain sustainability, iron ore prices are expected to be oscillating upward, and ferroalloys should be traded within a range [4][10][15][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: In 2025 from January to May, Hebei's iron and crude steel production decreased by 2.3% and 1.3% respectively year - on - year, while the industry's profit was higher than that of 2024. Shanghai's rebar price was 3220 yuan (+20), and Shanghai's hot - rolled coil price was 3320 yuan (+30) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector was strong at night. Steel exports remained high, but downstream construction site funds decreased, leading to a decline in rebar demand. With the convergence of basis, there is pressure on black sector prices. Steel prices may lack driving forces and maintain a range - bound trend [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect steel to maintain a high - level range - bound trend; for arbitrage, consider 10 - 1 positive spreads at low levels; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [5][6][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The average national profit per ton of coke was - 43 yuan/ton. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, and the daily hot - metal output was 242.44 tons. The coke and coking coal warehouse - receipt prices were provided [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Hot - metal production increased, coking coal inventory decreased, and the first round of coke price increase was implemented. The increase in coking coal prices was due to speculative and restocking demand, and its sustainability needs to be observed [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage and options, also wait and see; for spot - futures trading, pay attention to positive spreads [13]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: BHP's Q2 2025 iron ore production increased by 14.2% quarter - on - quarter. On July 17, the national main - port iron ore trading volume increased by 14.4%. The spot prices of PB powder, super - special powder, and others were provided [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron ore price increased by 1.53% at night. The supply of mainstream mines decreased seasonally, and the demand was high. With the change in market expectations, iron ore prices are expected to be oscillating upward [15][17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect an oscillating upward trend; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [18]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: A Jiangsu steel mill set the 75B ferrosilicon purchase price at 5600 yuan/ton. The prices of manganese ores in Tianjin Port were provided [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Ferrosilicon prices were stable with a slight increase. Supply was low, demand was supported, and costs were mixed. Manganese - silicon prices were stable, with expected production increase and supported by manganese ore prices. Both should be traded within a range [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading may be short - term oscillating upward but not recommended for chasing up; for arbitrage, go long on ferrosilicon and short on manganese - silicon, and consider positive spreads at low basis; for options, sell straddle option combinations at high prices [22].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Demand Resilience Exceeds Expectations, Alloy Has Support Below" [1] - Author: Zhou Tao from Galaxy Futures' Commodity Research Institute [1] - Occupation Certificate Number: Futures Practitioner Certificate No. F03134259, Investment Consulting Certificate No. Z0021009 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The demand resilience of alloys exceeds expectations, providing support for alloy prices, but it's not advisable to chase the rising prices due to increasing hedging pressure from more manufacturers resuming production [3][4] - Suggested trading strategies include going long on ferrosilicon and short on silicomanganese, conducting cash-and-carry arbitrage when the basis is low, and selling straddle options at high prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply has a slight rebound, and some manufacturers have expectations of further resuming production as prices rebound; although downstream steel enters the off - season, demand shows resilience with stable apparent demand of five major steel products and a significant increase in the molten iron output of 247 steel mills this week, supporting the demand for alloys; cost performance varies, with electricity prices decreasing in Gansu and Qinghai and slightly increasing in Ningxia [3] - **Silicomanganese**: Supply also has a slight rebound and remains at a low level; this week, the apparent demand and output of rebar both declined, suppressing the demand for silicomanganese, but overall crude steel output remains high, so demand still has resilience; port manganese ore spot prices have been stable and slightly strong recently, and overseas mines' August quotes are generally stable with a slight increase [3] 3.1.2 Strategies - **Unilateral**: Demand resilience supports prices, but avoid chasing rising prices [4] - **Arbitrage**: Go long on ferrosilicon and short on silicomanganese; conduct cash-and-carry arbitrage when the basis is low [4] - **Options**: Sell straddle options at high prices [4] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Not provided in the content 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 242.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 tons; the weekly demand for ferrosilicon of five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) is 20,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons; the weekly demand for silicomanganese of five major steel types (70%) is 123,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons [7] - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 32.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%; the national ferrosilicon output (weekly supply) is 100,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons; the operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 40.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%; the national silicomanganese output (99% of weekly supply) is 182,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons [8] - **Inventory**: As of the week of July 18, the national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 63,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,700 tons; the national inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national production capacity) is 216,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,500 tons [9] 3.3.2 Spot Price - Basis - Includes price and basis data of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon 72%FeSi over multiple years [12] 3.3.3 Production Situation of Double - Silicon Enterprises - Shows the weekly output and operating rate data of domestic ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises over multiple years [16] 3.3.4 Steel Mill Production Situation - Covers data such as the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly steel output, profitability rate, social steel inventory, and daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills over multiple years [22] 3.3.5 Silicomanganese Cost and Profit - On July 17, 2025, different regions have different production costs and profits for silicomanganese, with losses in all regions. Inner Mongolia has a production cost of 5,691 yuan/ton and a profit of - 91 yuan/ton; Ningxia has a production cost of 5,711 yuan/ton and a profit of - 111 yuan/ton; etc. [23] 3.3.6 Cost - Manganese Ore Price - Displays the price data of South African - produced Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port, South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps' CIF shipping quotes, and other manganese ore prices over multiple years [31] 3.3.7 Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - On July 17, 2025, different regions have different production costs and profits for ferrosilicon, all showing losses. Inner Mongolia has a production cost of 5,415 yuan/ton and a profit of - 165 yuan/ton; Ningxia has a production cost of 5,268 yuan/ton and a profit of - 68 yuan/ton; etc. [32] 3.3.8 Cost - Carbon Element and Electricity Price - Includes price data of Fugu blue carbon small materials, Yulin steam coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices over multiple years [39][42] 3.3.9 Double - Silicon Steel Tendering Prices of Hebei Representative Steel Mills - Shows the monthly procurement price data of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B and silicomanganese 6517 over multiple years [45] 3.3.10 Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Supply - Monthly Output - Displays the cumulative and monthly output data of domestic silicomanganese and ferrosilicon over multiple years [48][51] 3.3.11 Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export - Presents the monthly net import volume of manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of ferrosilicon in China over multiple years [56] 3.3.12 Magnesium Metal Demand - Includes the price data of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative output data of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi over multiple years [57] 3.3.13 Alloy Factory vs Steel Mill Ferrosilicon Inventory - Shows the ferrosilicon inventory of alloy factories, the regional breakdown of alloy factory ferrosilicon inventory, the available days of steel mill ferrosilicon inventory, and the regional breakdown of steel mill ferrosilicon inventory available days over multiple years [59] 3.3.14 Alloy Factory, Steel Mill, and Port Manganese Ore Inventory - Covers the available days of steel mill silicomanganese inventory, the regional breakdown of steel mill silicomanganese inventory available days, the total manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicomanganese inventory of alloy factories over multiple years [61]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - Short-term, the overall trend of the oil market is expected to be a narrow-range oscillation [12] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on July 17, 2025, were 8072, 8796, and 9440 respectively, with price changes of 30, 74, and -30. The basis of each variety showed different degrees of change [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 42, 20, and 66 respectively, with changes of 0, 2, and -6 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The 09 - contract Y - P spread was -724 (a decrease of 44), the OI - Y spread was 1368 (a decrease of 60), the OI - P spread was 644 (a decrease of 104), and the oil - meal ratio was 2.66 (a decrease of 0.04) [3] - **Import Profit**: The 8 - month shipment of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a negative profit of -119, and the 8 - month shipment of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam had a negative profit of -797 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: As of the 28th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 106.6, 56.3, and 70.6 million tons respectively, with different changes compared to the previous week and the same period last year [3] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Indonesia's plantation fund expects the palm oil tax revenue in 2025 to be about 30 trillion Indonesian rupiah. Indonesia is researching to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%, and the research is expected to be completed by the end of the year [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 56.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.79 million tons (a growth rate of 5.21%). The import profit inversion has narrowed. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory, and one can consider buying on dips [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 104.94 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.97 million tons (a growth rate of 2.91%). The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 70.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 million tons. The European rapeseed oil import profit inversion has narrowed. The short - term trend is expected to be a large - range oscillation, and one should continue to pay attention to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [10] Part 3: Trading Strategy - **Single - Side**: Short - term, the oil market is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [12] - **Arbitrage**: Consider partial profit - taking for YP09 spread narrowing, and continue to consider shorting on highs after the spread widens [13] - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [14] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including spot basis charts of various oils, monthly spread charts, and cross - variety spread charts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [17][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, casting aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. It provides trading strategies based on market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors for each metal [2][8][17]. - For each metal, the analysis includes market review (both futures and spot markets), relevant news, logical analysis of market movements, and corresponding trading strategies [2][8][17]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session of SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 77,840 yuan/ton, down 0.15%, with SHFE copper index reducing positions by 1,809 lots to 497,000 lots. In the spot market, copper prices declined in East, South, and North China, with different trends in spot premiums [2]. - **Important News**: Rumors of Powell's dismissal caused market volatility. In May 2025, global refined copper supply had a surplus of 84,200 tons. Peru lifted a two - week blockade on a major copper transport route. Antofagasta's copper production increased 11% year - on - year in H1 2025 [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: The 232 tariff is due on August 1st. LME copper inventory is increasing. The domestic smelter output will remain high in July and August. Market purchasing is mainly for immediate needs and in a wait - and - see mode [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading can be conducted with high - selling and low - buying within a range [14]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Alumina 2509 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 3,089 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 14,701 lots to 407,500 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [8]. - **Important News**: National unified market construction was emphasized. There were spot transactions in different regions. Alumina inventory increased by 11,000 tons to 3.188 million tons this week [9][10]. - **Logical Analysis**: Alumina production capacity is stable, but output is rising. The supply - demand pattern will shift from tight balance to structural surplus in July. The import window around 3,200 yuan is the upper pressure for price rebound [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading can be conducted with high - selling and low - buying within a range. For now, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: SHFE aluminum 2508 contract rose 25 yuan to 20,455 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 5,825 lots to 633,800 lots. Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - **Important News**: Chinese aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 12,000 tons. There were rumors about Powell's dismissal. The decline in housing completion area in June narrowed [17][18]. - **Logical Analysis**: Macro - events may cause overseas aluminum price fluctuations. Fundamentals have negative feedback. Aluminum consumption in the off - season may not be too weak [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices will be under short - term pressure and fluctuate. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 35 yuan to 19,845 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 106 lots to 9,969 lots. Spot prices were stable [23]. - **Important News**: In June 2025, the weighted average full cost of China's casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry increased by 14 yuan/ton compared to May, with a theoretical loss of 41 yuan/ton [23]. - **Logical Analysis**: Supply is stable, but demand is weak. Aluminum alloy futures prices will mainly follow the cost and aluminum price trends [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will be under pressure at high levels. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price difference between futures and spot is over 400 yuan. Wait and see for options [25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: SHFE zinc 2509 rose 0.55% to 22,120 yuan/ton, with positions in the SHFE zinc index decreasing by 8,334 lots to 223,300 lots. Spot market transactions were mainly for immediate needs, with weak premiums [28]. - **Important News**: As of July 17th, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased to 93,500 tons. Vedanta's zinc concentrate metal production in Q2 2025 increased by 7% year - on - year [29]. - **Logical Analysis**: Domestic zinc supply is increasing, and consumption is in the off - season, with inventory piling up. Zinc prices may be under pressure [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to macro - sentiment and capital - side influence, zinc prices may fluctuate. Long - term, short positions can be taken on price rebounds. Buy put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [31]. Lead - **Market Review**: SHFE lead 2508 fell 0.3% to 16,875 yuan/ton, with positions in the SHFE lead index increasing by 3,476 lots to 100,000 lots. Spot market transactions were not optimistic [33]. - **Important News**: As of July 17th, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory increased to 69,000 tons. Middle - East will impose different levels of tariffs on Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises [34]. - **Logical Analysis**: Secondary lead production is in the red, and domestic primary lead smelting has maintenance in July. The lead - battery peak season is approaching, with improving consumption [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try long positions with a small position considering secondary lead cost support and peak - season expectations. Sell put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main SHFE nickel contract NI2509 fell 740 yuan to 119,970 yuan/ton, with index positions increasing by 4,627 lots. Spot premiums showed different trends [40]. - **Important News**: In May 2025, global nickel supply had a surplus of 40,800 tons. From January to May 2025, the surplus was 165,300 tons. Philippines' nickel ore exports to Indonesia are expected to increase [41]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market concerns about US tariffs resurfaced. Refined nickel supply and demand are weak in the off - season, with stable and slightly increasing inventory. Prices will fluctuate weakly [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will decline with fluctuations. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [43][45][46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract rose 40 yuan to 12,730 yuan/ton, with index positions decreasing by 776 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [48]. - **Important News**: A nickel - iron factory in East China sold nickel - iron. National stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 1.69% week - on - week [49]. - **Logical Analysis**: Stainless - steel demand is not optimistic, with high inventory pressure. The cost has increased, and prices will oscillate at a high level [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will oscillate at a high level. Wait and see for arbitrage [51][52]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. Spot prices were stable [54][55]. - **Important News**: The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon and its derivatives [56][58]. - **Logical Analysis**: Leading manufacturers' production decreased by 20,000 tons in July. If leading manufacturers do not resume production, the supply - demand will be balanced. Prices may be strong in the short - term [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - term long - bias view. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage strategy. There is no option strategy [60]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main polysilicon futures contract rose 7.49% to 45,700 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased [61]. - **Important News**: A photovoltaic project's component procurement bid was announced [62]. - **Logical Analysis**: Polysilicon price increases can be transmitted downstream. Market sentiment is positive, and prices may be strong in the short - term [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will be strong in the short - term [65]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 1,640 yuan to 67,960 yuan/ton, with index positions increasing by 17,801 lots and Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) warehouse receipts decreasing by 416 to 10,239 tons. Spot prices were stable [66]. - **Important News**: Three Australian lithium mines have shut down. Zangge Mining's lithium - related subsidiary stopped production [67]. - **Logical Analysis**: Supply - side disturbances are frequent. Demand in July is not weak. Prices will oscillate at a high level in the short - term and may decline in Q4 [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will oscillate at a high level in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [71].