Yin He Qi Huo
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银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20251105
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 11:11
Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The long - term shutdown of the US government has increased short - term concerns about market liquidity, which mainly has a short - term impact. The supply of copper mines remains tight, and the supply situation in non - US regions has been alleviated to some extent. The demand for refined copper has been affected by high prices, but the downstream procurement demand has increased after the price decline [2][5] - The supply and demand of alumina are still in a significant surplus. Although there are expectations of production cuts, actual cuts have not occurred, and the import window is open. New projects are progressing smoothly, putting pressure on prices [13] - The US government shutdown has affected market liquidity, but the supply - demand pattern of electrolytic aluminum is still tight. Overseas production cuts have intensified supply concerns, and domestic consumption shows resilience, so the price is expected to rise after corrections [19] - The US government shutdown has a short - term impact on the market. The supply of casting aluminum alloy is tight, raw material costs are rising, and demand is improving, making the price easy to rise and hard to fall [29] - The domestic zinc smelter's winter storage scale has expanded, and the profit margin of smelters has been narrowed. The consumption peak season is over, but the opening of the export window will relieve the oversupply situation [36] - Some domestic lead - storage enterprises have reduced production, while the supply side is expected to increase. Considering the supply increase and the arrival of the consumption off - season, the lead price may decline [41] - The LME nickel inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, and the supply - demand is still loose. The nickel price is in a wide - range shock with a downward - moving center [46] - The terminal demand for stainless steel is not optimistic, and the supply is sufficient. The cost support is not strong, so the price trend is weak [49] - The Fed has differences on interest rate cuts, and the dollar index has reached a new high. The tin ore supply is still tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. The tin price is in a weak shock [57] - In November, the demand for industrial silicon has weakened, and the supply has been reduced. The price has limited downward and upward space, and it is more cost - effective to buy at low prices [61] - In November, the supply and demand of polysilicon have both decreased, and the supply reduction is greater. The spot price has no upward momentum in the short term, and it is advisable to buy after the price stabilizes [69] - In November, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate have tightened, and the price may rebound after a short - term decline. It is advisable to arrange short positions after the rebound [74] Group 3: Summary by Industry Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 85,670 yuan/ton, down 0.88%. The spot price returned to the 85,000 yuan/ton level, and the downstream replenishment increased [1] - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown affected market liquidity. Glencore plans to shut down a smelter, and some mining companies have adjusted their production plans [2][3] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro factors and supply - demand situations affect the copper market. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the demand has been affected by high prices [5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2601 decreased by 3 yuan to 2,772 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed different changes [7] - **Related Information**: Some electrolytic aluminum plants purchased alumina, and some alumina enterprises had production adjustments due to environmental factors. New projects are in progress [8][12] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus and factors such as production cuts and new projects affect the price [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak shock; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [14][15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2512 decreased by 85 yuan to 21,395 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined [17] - **Related Information**: The US government shutdown affected market liquidity, the LME planned to formulate rules, and some aluminum plants had production adjustments [17][18] - **Trading Logic**: The US government shutdown affected the price, but the supply - demand pattern is tight, and the price is expected to rise after corrections [19] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Choose the opportunity to go long on SHFE aluminum and short on LME aluminum; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [20][21][22] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of casting aluminum alloy 2512 decreased by 120 to 20,795 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined [24] - **Related Information**: The US - China tariff adjustment and economic data were released, and the US government shutdown affected market liquidity [24][27] - **Trading Logic**: The US government shutdown has a short - term impact. The supply is tight, costs are rising, and demand is improving, making the price easy to rise [29] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [30] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2512 decreased by 0.15% to 22,650 yuan/ton. The spot market had active trading among traders [32] - **Related Information**: Some mining companies' zinc production data changed [33][34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: The smelter's winter storage and profit situation, consumption season, and export window affect the market [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold profitable long positions; Arbitrage: Arrange to buy SHFE zinc and sell LME zinc; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2512 increased by 0.17% to 17,475 yuan/ton. The spot market had different trading attitudes among holders and downstream enterprises [39] - **Related Information**: A lead - zinc mine obtained a production license [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The production situation of lead - storage enterprises and the supply - side situation affect the price [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold profitable short positions; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [42][43] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 decreased by 290 to 120,030 yuan/ton. The spot premiums changed [45] - **Important Information**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased, and the nickel price and production situation in Indonesia changed [46] - **Logic Analysis**: The LME nickel inventory and supply - demand situation affect the price, which is in a wide - range shock [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak shock; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Sell the 2512 contract wide - straddle combination [48] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 35 to 12,535 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were given [49] - **Important Information**: India relaxed the import restrictions on stainless steel [49] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand and supply situation, as well as cost factors, affect the price trend [49] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Sell on rallies; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see [50][51] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 282,090 yuan/ton, down 0.89%. The spot price decreased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment improved [53] - **Related Information**: The US government shutdown, and some semiconductor - related events occurred [54][56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's attitude, tin ore supply, and demand situation affect the price, which is in a weak shock [57] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak shock; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [58][59] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The furnace - starting situation in Yunnan changed, and the electricity price increased, affecting the production of industrial silicon [61] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand situation in November affects the price, with limited downward and upward space [61] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: None; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [62][63][64] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Hubei launched a new energy project price - settlement mechanism bidding [66] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand situation in November affects the price, and it is advisable to buy after the price stabilizes [69] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Unilateral: Buy after the price correction; Arbitrage: Reverse spread on far - month contracts; Options: None [71] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate 2601 decreased by 360 to 79,140 yuan/ton. The spot prices decreased [72] - **Important Information**: Some lithium - related companies' production and project progress were reported [73] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand situation in November affects the price, which may rebound after a short - term decline [74] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Arrange short positions after the rebound; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [75]
棉花、棉纱日报-20251105
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 11:05
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply side has a large number of new cotton flowers on the market, with a significant increase in production in the new year but the increase may be less than expected; the demand side has average recent orders, and previous negative factors have been reflected in the market. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to mainly fluctuate, with relatively limited upward and downward space. Sino-US trade policies may have a significant impact on the market [5] - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a range-bound pattern, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger range-bound trend. Previous long positions should take profits [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts increased by 80, 65, and 65 respectively; the closing price of CY01 increased by 25, CY05 decreased by 19845, and CY09 increased by 19930. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also had corresponding changes [2] - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B decreased by 34 yuan/ton, Cot A increased to 77.10 cents/pound, and prices of other varieties also had different changes [2] - **Spread**: Cotton and yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads all had corresponding changes [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of November 3, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 96.1%, with different progress in different regions [4] - On November 5, 2025, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang cotton increased by 1.33% compared with the previous period, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [4] - As of November 4, 2025, 1018 cotton processing enterprises had processed and inspected 9,218,299 bales of cotton, weighing 2.0819 million tons [4] Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Although this year's production is abundant, the expected increase may be less than previous expectations. The market has entered a relatively off - season after the peak season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to mainly fluctuate [5] Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger. Take profits on previous long positions [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7] - **Options**: Wait and see [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Although the macro - atmosphere improved last week, the actual downstream demand did not improve significantly. The actual transaction price of pure cotton yarn changed little, and the market was mainly small, urgent, and rigid - demand orders. The follow - up needs to pay attention to downstream demand and Zhengzhou cotton trends [9] - The spot market of all - cotton grey cloth remained weak, and the weaving mills' raw material procurement was mainly based on immediate needs. Downstream customers mainly placed rigid - demand orders and were cautious about the weaving mills' sales information [9] Third Part: Options - The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly compared with the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 7.5%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.8%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 14.7% [11] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased, and the trading volume of both call and put options decreased [12] - Option strategy: Wait and see [8][13] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices, cotton basis for different months, spread between cotton yarn and cotton, and spread between different cotton contracts [15][18][22][23]
银河期货白糖日报-20251105
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 11:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international raw sugar market has a weak fundamental outlook with a downward trend due to high sugar production in Brazil, a lower support level for sugar from ethanol as Brazil cuts oil prices, and potentially higher - than - expected sugar exports from India [10]. - The domestic white sugar market has a weak fundamental situation as well, but considering factors such as sugar mills starting to crush and tightened imports of syrup and premixed powder, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [11]. - Suggested trading strategies include range - bound operations for the domestic market, an arbitrage strategy of shorting foreign sugar and going long on Zhengzhou sugar, and taking a wait - and - see approach for options [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,393 with a decline of 42 points (-0.77%), SR01 at 5,441 with a decline of 40 points (-0.73%), and SR05 at 5,393 with a decline of 38 points (-0.70%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of white sugar in different regions such as Liuzhou, Kunming, and Wuhan decreased to varying degrees. The basis between spot and futures prices was positive in all regions [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The SR5 - SR01 spread was - 48 with a change of 2, the SR09 - SR5 spread was 0 with a change of - 4, and the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 48 with a change of - 2 [6]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the quota - in price was 3914, the quota - out price was 4968, and the spreads with Liuzhou, Rizhao, and the futures market were 752, 852, and 473 respectively. For Thai imports, the quota - in price was 3979, the quota - out price was 5053, and the corresponding spreads were 667, 767, and 388 [6]. Second Part: Market Judgment - **Important Information**: India's 2025/26 sugar production is estimated to be 3435 million tons (excluding ethanol use) and 3095 million tons (net production after ethanol use), with potential exports of nearly 2 million tons. Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is slightly higher than the previous estimate, while the ethanol production shows mixed changes [8]. - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the sugar market is bearish due to high production in Brazil and potential high exports from India. Domestically, although the fundamentals are weak, short - term price fluctuations are expected [10][11]. - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Trade within a range for the domestic market [12]. - Arbitrage: Short foreign sugar and go long on Zhengzhou sugar [13]. - Options: Wait and see [13]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The part includes multiple charts showing data such as monthly inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan, sales - to - production ratios in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, and various basis and spreads [14][15][16]
银河期货苹果日报-20251105
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 11:05
Group 1: Report Overview - Title: Agricultural Products R & D Report - Apple Daily [1] - Date: November 05, 2024 [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 107.18, down 0.43 from the previous trading day [2] - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 7.16, up 0.07 from the previous trading day [2] Futures Prices - AP01: 8940, up 79 from yesterday's close [2] - AP05: 9178, up 66 from yesterday's close [2] - AP10: 8284, up 66 from yesterday's close [2] Price Differences - AP01 - AP05: -238, up 13 from the previous trading day [2] - AP05 - AP10: 894, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - AP10 - AP01: -656, up 13 from the previous trading day [2] Group 3: Market News - Cold Storage Inventory: As of September 25, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold storage inventory was 147,900 tons, a decrease of 60,200 tons from the previous week [4] - Imports and Exports: In September 2025, fresh apple imports were 9,700 tons, a 17.85% decrease from the previous month and a 1.10% decrease year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative imports were 108,100 tons, a 19.49% increase year - on - year. In September 2025, fresh apple exports were about 70,800 tons, a 3.50% increase from the previous month and a 6.32% decrease year - on - year [4] - Market Conditions: Last Friday, the mainstream apple market in the producing areas was stable. In Shandong, the high - end price of the price range increased slightly due to the gradual trading of striped goods. Over the weekend, some merchants postponed purchases due to the low cost - effectiveness of the goods, and the price of general goods in Shandong decreased slightly. The market arrivals were stable, and the mainstream price remained stable [4] - Profit: In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia was 0.4 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per jin from the previous week [5] - Spot Prices in Specific Areas: In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the mainstream transaction price of apples was stable. In Qixia, Shandong, the price of high - quality apples was stable, while the price of general goods decreased slightly [6] Group 4: Trading Logic - Fundamental Situation: This year, apple production has decreased, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, and the preservation difficulty has increased. The market expects the cold storage inventory data to be low, so the spot price is strong. Some preserved fruit is expected to occupy cold storage space, so the effective inventory may be even lower, and the apple fundamentals are strong [7] - Short - term Situation: In the short term, the apple market is likely to trade based on inventory expectations. There is a market expectation that the inventory may exceed expectations, and the previous apple price has risen too high, so there has been a significant short - term decline [7] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Stay on the sidelines and observe [8] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and observe [15] - Options: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and observe [15] Group 6: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts such as AP contract main basis, AP05 - AP10, AP10 - AP05, apple arrival volume in specific markets, 6 kinds of fruit prices, national cold storage apple inventory, and national cold storage apple出库 volume [9][13][16][18][22]
银河期货油脂日报-20251105
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 10:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and it is recommended to wait and observe. But in the medium - term, the idea of buying on dips is maintained. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil on the 2601 contract was 8138, up 30; palm oil was 8590, down 26; and rapeseed oil was 9407, down 36. The basis of each variety remained stable in different regions [2] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybean oil was 188, up 18; palm oil was - 106, down 26; and rapeseed oil was 345, down 18 [2] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - contract Y - P spread was - 452, up 56; OI - Y was 1269, down 66; OI - P was 817, down 10; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.65, down 0.04 [2] - **Import Profits**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 326, and the FOB price of Rotterdam's crude rapeseed oil was 1075, with a disk profit of - 1204 [2] - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: As of the 44th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory was 121.6 million tons, down from last week; palm oil was 59.3 million tons, also down; and rapeseed oil was 51.4 million tons, down as well [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From October 1 - 31, 2025, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased in all regions, with the overall increase in Malaysia being 12.31% [4] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of October 31, 2025, the national palm oil commercial inventory decreased slightly, and the import profit inversion widened. It is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker in the short - term [4] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: As of October 31, 2025, the soybean oil inventory was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, but the inventory inflection point may have arrived. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [5] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: As of October 31, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory was at a high level in the same period of history but continued to decline marginally. The import profit inversion widened, and the basis was stable and strong. The de - stocking trend along the coast is expected to continue [7] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: In the short - term, wait and observe. In the medium - term, maintain the idea of buying on dips [9] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10] - **Options**: Wait and see [11] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of various oils, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2016 - 2025 [13][15]
粕类日报:关税影响体现,粕类偏强运行-20251105
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 10:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market is relatively loose in supply and demand, but the US market shows strong performance due to increased exports. Brazilian soybean prices may face pressure in the medium - term. Domestic soybean meal is strong due to tariff adjustments, and rapeseed meal is also strong influenced by soybean meal and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continues to shrink. [4][3] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to short the 05 contract on rallies for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide straddles for options. [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean market continues to be strong, and the Brazilian price is falling with sufficient supply. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are both strong. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrows, and the monthly spreads of both are strong. [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In the international market, the US soybean has limited upside potential without a significant yield reduction. Brazil's soybean supply is abundant, and its price may face pressure. Argentina's soybean export and processing are increasing, but the export growth space may be limited. [4] - In the domestic market, the supply and demand of soybean meal are relatively loose, with increasing inventory. The demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, and the supply is uncertain. [5] 3.3 Macroeconomic Impact - Sino - US negotiations have sent positive signals, and the US soybean market has risen. However, the impact on the market is expected to be limited in the future, and the market will focus more on fundamentals. [6] 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean has limited upside space without a large - scale yield decline. Brazilian soybean prices are under pressure. Domestic soybean meal is strong with price support, and rapeseed meal is also strong but has limited upside space. The monthly spreads of both are strong but have limited further upside potential. [7] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Single - side: Short the 05 contract on rallies. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Sell wide straddles. [8][9]
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251105
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 10:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production remains high. It is expected that the pace of capacity reduction in the short term will be relatively gradual. Considering that the current spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per catty, and the main contract in December has already given a certain premium, the expected upside space is relatively limited [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: JD01 closed at 3385, up 48 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3509, up 17; JD09 closed at 3867, up 8. The 01 - 05 spread was -124, up 31; the 05 - 09 spread was -358, up 9; the 09 - 01 spread was 482, down 40 [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.59, up 0.02; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.10, down 0.01. The 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, up 0.01; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.24, unchanged. The 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.71, unchanged; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.32, up 0.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.87 yuan per catty, up 0.01 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. The average price in the main sales areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous trading day. Most of the national mainstream prices remained stable, with prices in various regions such as Beijing, Northeast China, and Shandong remaining stable, and only some local prices showing minor fluctuations [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 3.99 yuan per catty, down 0.01 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. The prices of culled chickens in different regions showed some fluctuations, with prices in Handan and Shijiazhuang rising, and prices in Jinan and Dezhou falling [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, and an increase of 5.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous expectation. Based on previous replenishment data, the estimated inventory of laying hens in production from November 2025 to February 2026 is approximately 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In October, the monthly hatchling volume of egg - laying chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [5]. - **Culled Chicken Slaughter Volume and Age**: In the week of October 31, the national slaughter volume of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 20.53 million, an increase of 11% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 494 days, a decrease of 5 days from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of October 31, the egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7658 tons, an increase of 2.1% compared to the previous week [5]. - **Profit Situation**: As of October 31, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was - 0.2 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.02 yuan per catty from the previous week. On October 31, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was - 4.82 yuan per bird, an increase of 1.42 yuan per catty from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of the week of October 31, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.04 days, unchanged from the previous week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, also unchanged from the previous week [6]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - **Single - Side Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [10].
生猪日报:供应压力仍存,现货继续回落-20251105
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 09:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure in the live pig market remains high, with continuous high monthly live pig slaughter volume and high live pig inventory and slaughter weight. The subsequent spot price of live pigs is expected to be weak, and there is still pressure on pig prices [3][4]. - The futures price of live pigs shows a rebound trend, but the subsequent supply pressure is still obvious. The spot price is mainly downward, and the recent rebound space of futures may be limited. The futures market is expected to fluctuate mainly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - Today, the spot prices of live pigs across the country have generally declined. The average price has dropped from 11.89 yuan/kg yesterday to 11.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.33 yuan/kg [3]. 3.2 Futures Price - The futures prices of most live pig contracts have risen. For example, LH01 has increased from 11,685 yuan to 11,945 yuan, an increase of 260 yuan; LH03 has increased from 11,360 yuan to 11,490 yuan, an increase of 130 yuan [3]. 3.3 Sow/Piglet Price - The price of piglets has increased from 175 yuan last week to 198 yuan this week, an increase of 23 yuan; the price of sows has increased from 1,545 yuan last week to 1,546 yuan this week, an increase of 1 yuan [3]. 3.4 Spot Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising has increased from - 185.68 yuan to - 89.33 yuan, an increase of 96.35 yuan; the spot breeding profit of purchasing piglets has increased from - 289.07 yuan to - 179.72 yuan, an increase of 109.35 yuan [3]. 3.5 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume has increased from 158,004 heads yesterday to 159,258 heads today, an increase of 1,254 heads [3]. 3.6 Contract Spread - The spread of LH7 - 9 has decreased from - 790 yuan to - 795 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spread of LH9 - 1 has decreased from 1,570 yuan to 1,495 yuan, a decrease of 75 yuan [3]. 3.7 Size Pig Spread - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs has decreased from 0.4 yuan to 0.37 yuan, a decrease of 0.03 yuan; the spread between large pigs and standard pigs has increased from 0.61 yuan to 0.64 yuan, an increase of 0.03 yuan [3]. 3.8 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]
银河期货股指期货数据日报-20251105
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 09:07
1. Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 5, 2025 [2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The underlying index, CSI 1000, closed at 7,464.86, up 0.39%. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 238,684 lots, an increase of 5,106 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 366,783 lots, an increase of 3,310 lots [4][5]. - The main contract, IM2512, rose 0.77% to close at 7,310.8 points. It was at a discount of 154.06 points to the spot, a decrease of 2.73 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -17.09% [4][5]. 2.2 Main Seats - In IM2511, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), with a trading volume of 55,286 lots, an increase of 4,013 lots. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) held 29,347 lots, an increase of 2,565 lots; in terms of short positions, it held 38,462 lots, an increase of 2,913 lots [17]. 3. IF Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The underlying index, CSI 300, closed at 4,627.26, up 0.19%. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 116,616 lots, a decrease of 1,583 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 270,040 lots, an increase of 1,580 lots [22][23]. - The main contract, IF2512, rose 0.41% to close at 4,596.6 points. It was at a discount of 30.66 points to the spot, a decrease of 0.96 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -5.41% [22][23]. 3.2 Main Seats - In IF2511, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), with a trading volume of 11,219 lots, an increase of 137 lots. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) held 6,939 lots, an increase of 78 lots; in terms of short positions, it held 10,786 lots, an increase of 137 lots [36]. 4. IC Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The underlying index, CSI 500, closed at 7,229.34, up 0.26%. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 147,163 lots, an increase of 3,196 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 256,435 lots, an increase of 4,279 lots [41][42]. - The main contract, IC2512, rose 0.55% to close at 7,108 points. It was at a discount of 121.34 points to the spot, a decrease of 5.11 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -13.85% [41][42]. 4.2 Main Seats - In IC2511, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), with a trading volume of 33,280 lots, a decrease of 379 lots. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) held 21,462 lots, an increase of 1,259 lots; in terms of short positions, it held 22,125 lots, an increase of 741 lots [56]. 5. IH Futures 5.1 Daily Quotes - The underlying index, SSE 50, closed at 3,007.97, down 0.17%. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 53,120 lots, an increase of 2,586 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 96,978 lots, an increase of 2,204 lots [62]. - The main contract, IH2512, fell 0.01% to close at 3,002.6 points. It was at a discount of 5.37 points to the spot, a decrease of 0.6 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -1.45% [62][63]. 5.2 Main Seats - In IH2512, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), with a trading volume of 11,333 lots, an increase of 1,357 lots. In terms of long positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) held 7,809 lots, a decrease of 362 lots; in terms of short positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) held 8,777 lots, an increase of 52 lots [77].
玉米淀粉日报-20251105
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 09:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn market is experiencing narrow - range fluctuations. Although the US - China relationship has eased and the price has rebounded, the high production level remains a factor. The import profit of foreign corn has declined, and the domestic corn spot has short - term downward space. The starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream stocking, and the corn starch spot is expected to decline later [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2134, down 1 (- 0.05%), with a trading volume of 391,795 (- 3.51%) and an open interest of 935,749 (0.94%); C2605 closed at 2235, up 3 (0.13%), with a trading volume of 23,599 (- 30.92%) and an open interest of 235,990 (- 0.30%); C2509 closed at 2257, up 3 (0.13%), with a trading volume of 1,577 (- 37.40%) and an open interest of 12,563 (0.44%). - For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2451, up 7 (0.29%), with a trading volume of 72,439 (- 26.65%) and an open interest of 215,252 (0.84%); CS2605 closed at 2555, up 7 (0.27%), with a trading volume of 1,577 (- 54.60%) and an open interest of 6,108 (- 0.18%); CS2509 closed at 2594, unchanged (0.00%), with a trading volume of 26 (- 60.61%) and an open interest of 450 (0.45%) [2]. 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions: Qinggang was 1965 yuan, Songyuan Jiji was 2010 yuan, Zhucheng Xingmao was 2290 yuan, Shouguang was 2216 yuan, Jinzhou Port was 2160 yuan, Nantong Port was 2250 yuan, and Guangdong Port was 2250 yuan, all unchanged. The basis ranged from - 292 to 33 yuan. - Starch spot prices in different regions: Longfeng was 2650 yuan, COFCO was 2650 yuan, Cargill was 2800 yuan, Yufeng was 2890 yuan, Jinyu was 2800 yuan, Zhucheng Xingmao was 2900 yuan, and Hengren Industry and Trade was 2800 yuan, all unchanged. The basis ranged from 95 to 345 yuan [2]. 3.1.3 Spreads - Corn inter - delivery spreads: C01 - C05 was - 101 (- 4), C05 - C09 was - 22 (0), C09 - C01 was 123 (4). - Starch inter - delivery spreads: CS01 - CS05 was - 104 (0), CS05 - CS09 was - 39 (7), CS09 - CS01 was 143 (- 7). - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 was 337 (- 3), CS01 - C01 was 317 (8), CS05 - C05 was 320 (4) [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn market is in narrow - range fluctuations. The import profit of foreign corn has declined, with the December Brazilian import price at 2160 yuan. The northern port FOB price is stable, and the Northeast corn production area spot is stable. The supply in North China has increased, and the corn spot has started to stabilize. The spread between Northeast and North China corn has widened. The wheat price in North China is stable, and the wheat - corn spread is large. The domestic breeding demand is stable, but the corn spot still has short - term downward space [4][6]. 3.2.2 Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the Shandong corn spot is stable. The starch inventory has increased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 113.8 million tons, an increase of 1.0 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 33.26%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is still strong. The North China corn is short - term strong, while the Northeast corn is falling. The corn - starch spot spread is low, and the corn starch spot is expected to decline later [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. Wait and see for C05 and C01 corn. - Arbitrage: Try to narrow the spread between C01 corn and starch when it is high [9]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategy: Short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls, with rolling operations [11]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing corn spot prices in different regions, corn 01 contract basis, corn 1 - 5 spreads, corn starch 1 - 5 spreads, corn starch 01 contract basis, and corn starch 01 contract spreads [13][15][20].