Yin He Qi Huo
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玉米淀粉日报-20260210
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-10 09:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. Corn spot in North China is strong, while that in Northeast China is stable. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. The corn spot still has room to fall, and the 03 corn contract will also decline, but the decline space of the 07 corn contract is limited [2][4][6]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot in Shandong is strong. The starch spot in Northeast China is stable. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. It is expected that the 03 starch contract on the disk will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Quotes**: The closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, trading volume change rates, open interests, and open interest change rates of multiple corn and corn starch futures contracts are provided. For example, the closing price of C2601 is 2264, with a price increase of 7 and a price change rate of 0.31%, a trading volume of 274 with a decrease rate of 25.75%, and an open interest of 3448 with an increase rate of 0.17% [1]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot prices and price changes of corn and starch in different regions are given. For example, the spot price of corn in Qinggang is 2135, with no price change; the spot price of starch in Longfeng is 2730, with no price change. The basis of corn and starch is also provided, such as the basis of C2601 is - 173 [1]. - **Spread**: The spreads and their price changes of corn inter - period, starch inter - period, and cross - variety are provided. For example, the spread of C01 - C05 is - 22, with a price change of - 5; the spread of CS01 - CS05 is - 8, with a price change of 1 [1][3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn price has fallen back but is still oscillating at the bottom. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The northern port's flat - warehouse price is stable, and the Northeast corn spot is stable. The supply in North China has decreased before the Spring Festival, and the spot is stable. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened. The wheat price in North China is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn is large. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The 03 contract is oscillating in a narrow range, and the spot basis is strengthening [2][4]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot in Shandong is strong. The starch spot in Northeast China is stable. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price has started to weaken but is still higher than last year. The price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 03 starch contract is oscillating strongly following the corn, and the starch spot has stabilized in the short term [5]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel. Go long on the 07 and 05 corn contracts on dips [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 3 - 7 corn contracts, and go long on the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts on dips [7]. 3.4 Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [8]. 3.5 Related Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including the northern port's corn flat - warehouse price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread [12][14][16][18][19].
银河期货花生日报-20260210
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-10 09:26
研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 2 月 10 日 | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/2/10 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 7948 | 6 | 0.08% | 11,096 | -25.31% | 54,358 | -2.54% | | PK610 | 8268 | 24 | 0.29% | 275 | 189.47% | 2,736 | 0.37% | | PK601 | 8258 | #N/A | #N/A | 50 | #DIV/0! | 34 | 6.25% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 7400 | 8000 | 8000 ...
螺纹热卷日报-20260210
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-10 09:26
研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 02 月 10 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员:戚纯怡 期货从业证号: F03113636 投资咨询证号: Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 9 【交易策略】 单边:节前维持震荡偏弱走势 套利:建议逢高做空卷煤比,做空卷螺差继续持有。 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货:网价上海中天螺纹 3190 元(-),北京敬业 3120 元(-),上海鞍钢热卷 3240 元(-),天津河钢热卷 3140 元(-)。 【交易策略】 今日钢材盘面维持震荡偏弱走势,钢材期货价格继续下探。上周钢联数据公布, 五大材整体减产,但铁水仍然增产,钢厂陆续进入节日停产检修的模式;钢材总库存 加快累库进度,其中螺纹累库进度快于热卷,总体社库压力大于厂库;近期天气转 冷,下游工地陆陆续续停工,建材需求快速下滑;而钢材出口受出口许可证下滑,海 外制造业陆续结束补库,热卷需求同样下行。整体钢材基本面边际转弱。预计节前钢 材维持震荡偏弱走势。目前钢材库存偏高,节后资本 ...
铁合金日报-20260210
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-10 09:22
期货从业证号: F03134259 投资咨询证号: Z0021009 联系方式: 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 2 月 10 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员:周涛 :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5580 | -14 | -40 | 99225 | -64428 | 167193 | -382 | | SM主力合约 | 5818 | 6 | -18 | 132582 | -41282 | 374337 | 4286 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5390 | 0 | -30 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5650 | 0 | -30 | | ...
银河期货烧碱周报-20260210
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-10 01:46
烧碱周报 研究员:李轩怡 期货从业证号:F03108920 投资咨询资格证号:Z0018403 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第二章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周出现华北地区某大型氧化铝厂2期焙烧炉全部停产检修、导致在产品库存积压,其前端投料暂停的各类传言。等待下周验证。 烧碱供需双弱。供应端装置负荷微降。氯碱开工负荷率下滑0.81个百分点至90.63%,烧碱折百产量88.14万吨,环比减少0.89%。虽 然部分装置检修带来供应微减,但整体供应依然充足。需求端分化运行,刚需收尾。主力下游氧化铝运行产能回落至75.42%(-2.34 个百分点),需求支撑减弱;粘胶短纤开工率虽提升至83.78%,但受春节临近影响,下游备货基本结束,整体接货意愿转淡。库存 去化,亏损扩大。上游压力缓解。山东32%液碱工厂库存降至10.98万吨,环比大幅下降8.88%。贸易商因避险情绪维持低库存,社 会库存变动不大。利润严重亏损,挺价意愿强。山东氯碱企 ...
银河期货每日早盘观察-20260210
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-10 01:41
期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 10 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货:指数多头排列添信心 3 | | --- | | 国债期货:债市继续走强,止盈有所增多 4 | | 蛋白粕:供应压力较大 | 粕类震荡运行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖:国际糖价上涨 | 预计国内价格维持高位 5 | | 油脂板块:油脂维持宽幅震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉:产区现货稳定,盘面高位震荡 8 | | | 生猪:供应压力好转 | 现货震荡运行 8 | | 花生:花生现货稳定,花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋:节前备货进入尾声 | 蛋价有所下跌 10 | | 苹果:节前走货尚可,苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱:基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材:需求延续下滑 钢价震荡运行 13 | | --- | | 双焦:煤矿陆续放假,现货成交趋于冷清 13 | | 铁矿:基本面持续弱化,矿价偏弱运行 14 | | 铁合金:长假临近,多单逢高止盈 15 | | 金银:市场情绪企稳 金银回暖 17 | | --- | | 铂钯: ...
鸡蛋日报-20260209
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 13:55
研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 02 月 09 日 研究员:刘倩楠 期货从业证号: Z0014425 联系方式: :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3790 | 3770 | 20 | 01-05 | 398 | 346 | 52 | | JD05 | 3392 | 3424 | -32 | 05-09 | -483 | -455 | -28 | | JD09 | 3875 | 3879 | -4 | 09-01 | 85 | 109 | -24 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.68 | 1.67 | 0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.49 | ...
棉花、棉纱日报-20260209
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 13:55
F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号: Z0022817、Z0014425 研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 02 月 09 日 研究员:王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号: 联系方式: :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 15140 | -70 | 472 | -452 | 5,483 | 84 | | CF05合约 | 14610 | -70 | 246,422 | -13325 | 700,704 | -270 | | CF09合约 | 14735 | -70 | 55,110 | -3624 | 169,643 | 4673 | | CY01合约 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | CY05合约 | 20360 | -45 | 6709 | -536 | 11525 | 360 | | CY ...
银河期货农产品日报-20260209
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 13:45
研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 02 月 09 日 研究员:刘倩楠 期货从业证号: F3013727 投资咨询证号: Z0014425 联系方式: :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 格 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 107.22 | 107.52 | -0.30 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.99 | 7.93 | 0.06 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | ...
中期原料成本抬升及缺口担忧仍存
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 13:38
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have expanded and volatility has intensified. The asphalt futures market has followed the fluctuations of crude oil. The demand in various regions has gradually weakened with the cooling of the weather and the approaching of the Spring Festival. However, supported by low inventory and low supply, the spot prices in various regions have remained basically stable, and the supply-demand imbalance in the off - season is becoming more apparent. There are still concerns about the long - term raw material shortage and cost increase in asphalt production [4]. - The trading strategies are as follows: for single - side trading, expect high - level fluctuations and consider going long on BU2606 at low prices; for arbitrage, pay attention to the spread between going long on BU and going short on LU; for options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Geopolitical risks lead to increased volatility in the asphalt market, which follows crude oil prices. Demand weakens in the off - season, but low inventory and supply support stable spot prices. There are concerns about future raw material shortages and cost increases [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side trading: high - level fluctuations, go long on BU2606 at low prices; Arbitrage: focus on the spread of going long on BU and going short on LU; Options: wait - and - see [6]. 2. Core Logic Analysis - **Southern Demand and Refinery Price Support**: There is still demand in the South, leading some refineries to support prices. This week, the asphalt price in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions increased by 5 - 115 yuan/ton. The cost of crude oil and the asphalt futures market are performing well, and there is some rush - work demand in the South. Low refinery operating rates are beneficial for social inventory sales [12]. - **Stable Spot Prices and Rising Futures Prices**: Geopolitical instability makes the crude oil cost fluctuate widely. Chinese refineries are seeking alternative raw materials, leading to an increase in feedstock costs. As of February 6, the theoretical processing profit of asphalt refineries was - 78.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.6 yuan/ton from last week. This week, the asphalt futures price rose in a volatile manner, while the spot market price remained stable [15]. - **Slight Decline in Asphalt Operating Rate**: The overall asphalt operating rate decreased slightly. Different regions had different changes in operating rates due to factors such as production adjustments in individual refineries [17][18]. - **Low Refinery Inventory**: The refinery inventory remained at a low level. The inventory in different regions changed due to factors such as production, demand, and contract delivery [20][21]. - **Increased Social Inventory**: Social inventory increased steadily due to winter storage resource warehousing. However, there was still some rush - work demand in the South, which affected the local inventory level [23]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking - **Industrial Chain Data**: It includes data on spot and futures prices, spreads, and profits. For example, on February 6, 2026, the closing price of the asphalt main contract was 3386 yuan/ton, and the Brent 15:00 closing price was 68.36 US dollars/barrel. The operating rate of refineries was 31.62%, the refinery inventory rate was 23.95%, and the social inventory rate was 25.63% [26].