能源化工研发报告 大宗商品研究 煤炭日报 2025 年 7 月 29 日 煤炭日报 【市场回顾】 现货市场：7 月 29 日，港口市场交投氛围一般，贸易商报价依旧维稳，现 5500 大 卡市场报价 650-660 元/吨，5000 大卡市场报价 590-600 元/吨，4500 大卡市场报价 520 元/吨；内蒙地区非电企业用煤 5500 大卡煤种价格处于 425 - 465 元/吨之间，5000 大卡 煤种价格处于 355 - 395 元/吨之间，4500 大卡煤种价格处于 285 - 325 元/吨之间；榆林 地区非电企业用煤 6000 大卡煤的价格区间为 520 - 550 元/吨，5800 大卡煤的价格区间为 490 - 520 元/吨；山西非电企业用煤 5500 大卡煤种价格在 480 - 530 元/吨之间，5000 大 卡煤种价格在 420 - 470 元/吨之间，4500 大卡煤种价格在 360 - 410 元/吨之间。江内港 口 5500 大卡动力煤报价区间为 690 - 710 元/吨；5000 大卡动力煤报价在 630 - 640 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【逻辑分析】 供应方面，坑口价格 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 07 月 29 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3643 | 3654 | -11 | 01-05 | 168 | 181 | -13 | | JD05 | 3475 | 3473 | 2 | 05-09 | -101 | -103 | 2 | | JD09 | 3576 | 3576 | 0 | 09-01 | -67 | -78 | 11 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.64 | 1.64 | 0.00 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.00 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.54 | ...

1、期货市场：尿素期货宽幅震荡为主，最终报收 1744（-1/-0.06%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价延续跌势，成交一般，河南出厂报 1700-1720 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1700-1720 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1720-1730 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1650-1670 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1730-1750 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1580-1630 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 7 月 29 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 【尿素】7 月 29 日，尿素行业日产 19.47 万吨，较上一工作日持平；较去年同期增 加 1.86 万吨；今日开工 84.08%，较去年同期 79.85%提升 4.23%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价连续下跌，成交乏力。山东 地区主流出厂报价领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库存充 裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单 成交转弱，待发告罄，预计出厂报价继续下跌为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价 暂稳，贸易商观望，收单量 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 7 月 29 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡，最终报收 2434（-8/-0.33%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 2050 元/吨，北线报价 2010 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2110 元/吨，榆林地区报价 2040 元/吨，山西地区报价 2150 元/吨，河南地区报价 2190 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2260 元/吨，鲁北报价 2310 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2220 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2140 元/吨，云贵报价 2200 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2390 元/吨，宁波报价 2420 元/吨，广州报价 2390 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期(20250719-20250725）国际甲醇（除中国）产量为 1023453 吨，较上周减少 41500 吨，装置产能利用率为 70.16%，较上周下降 2.84%。周期内，kimiya 给予降负荷运行， BCCO 高负荷运行，ZPC、Apadana 给予半负荷运行，其他主流 8 成负荷运行。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，当前西北煤炭主产地煤矿 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The report focuses on the production and sales of the world's four major iron ore mines in the second quarter of 2025, presenting historical production and sales data of VALE, Rio Tinto, BHP, and FMG through multiple charts. 3. Summary by Company VALE - Charts show production and sales statistics, including overall production and sales, sales of different products (powder and pellets), production of the S11D mining area, and regional production proportion [6][11][12]. Rio Tinto - Charts display production and sales data, production and sales of PB powder, and production and sales proportions of different products [15][16][18]. BHP - Charts present production and sales data and production proportions of different mining areas [21][22]. FMG - Charts show production and sales data and the production of the Iron Bridge project [25][29].

Report Overview - This is a black metal research report released by the Commodity Research Institute on July 29, 2025, covering steel, coking coal and coke, iron ore, and ferroalloys [3][7][12] Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The steel market lacks price drivers and follows raw material trends in the short term. The trading logic of coking coal and coke may shift to fundamental factors, with short - term downward adjustment space for coking coal prices. Iron ore prices are expected to remain high, and the ferroalloy market is affected by the coking coal market [4][11][17] Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Trump may impose 15% - 20% tariffs on imports from countries without separate trade agreements with the US. In H1 2025, China completed 1.6474 trillion yuan in transportation fixed - asset investment. Shanghai rebar is 3390 yuan/ton (-40), Beijing rebar is 3300 yuan/ton (-60), Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3440 yuan/ton (-60), and Tianjin hot - rolled coil is 3380 yuan/ton (-60) [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector oscillated weakly at night. Steel production cuts slowed, rebar destocked while hot - rolled coil stocked up. Steel exports remained high, but hot - rolled apparent demand declined in July. The market sentiment improved, but steel may lack price drivers and follow raw material trends. If over - production checks are implemented, steel prices may rise. The exchange's coking coal position limit may lead to steel price adjustments [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel will oscillate, and long positions are advised to be closed. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [5][6][8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On July 28, the auction price of coking coal in Lvliang and Linfen decreased. Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) warehouse receipt is 1435 yuan/ton, etc. [9][10] - **Logic Analysis**: After the sentiment cools down, the trading logic may shift to fundamentals. The short - term supply - demand gap of coking coal may ease, and there is short - term downward adjustment space for prices. Mid - term, focus on over - production checks and inventory release [11][13] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Coking coal prices may adjust downward in the short term, with intense market competition. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see. Spot - futures: Wait and see [14] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On July 28, China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm. Trump may impose tariffs. From July 21 - 27, China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons. Qingdao Port PB powder is 770 yuan/ton (-12) [15] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated at night. The market sentiment cooled due to coking coal price drops. Supply from mainstream mines is in a seasonal low, and non - mainstream mine shipments are high. Iron ore demand remains resilient. Current prices are at a reasonable level, and short - term prices are expected to remain high [17] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: High - level operation. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [18] Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - **Related Information**: On July 28, Tianjin Port semi - carbonate average price is 35 yuan/ton - degree. A Jiangsu steel mill set the 75B silicon iron purchase price at 6170 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton [19] - **Logic Analysis**: On July 28, silicon iron spot prices were weak. Supply increased with price rises, and demand was supported by steel production. The coking coal market adjustment affected market sentiment, and long positions are advised to be closed [20] Manganese Silicon - **Related Information**: On July 28, Tianjin Port semi - carbonate price increased by 0.1 yuan/ton - degree [21] - **Logic Analysis**: On July 28, manganese ore spot prices were strong, and manganese silicon spot prices were weak. Supply increased, demand was supported by steel profits, and the coking coal adjustment affected sentiment. Long positions are advised to be closed [23] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Close long positions due to coking coal impact. Arbitrage: Close long - silicon - iron short - manganese - silicon positions, and consider spot - futures positive arbitrage at low basis. Options: Wait and see [24]

股指期货数据日报 2025年7月29日 IM每日行情 IM行情概要 IM成交持仓 单位：点、手、亿元 单位：手 | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | | 成交额 | +/- | | 持仓量 | +/- | 持仓保证金 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中证1000 | 6773.88 | 0.65% | 25,926 | | 3 % | | 3,837 | 7 % | | | | | | IM2508 | 6731.00 | 0.84% | 38,521 | | -2% | | 514 | -2% | 59,508 | -4,161 | | 9 6 | | IM2509 | 6662.00 | 0.86% | 116,403 | | 0 % | | 1,537 | 0 % | 174,556 | -5,877 | | 279 | | IM2512 | 6471.80 | 0.80% | 26,296 | | 9 % | | 337 | 8 % | 78,4 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 7 月 29 日 第一部分 数据 2025/7/29 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 2215 -11 -0.50% 81,555 -2.80% 213,252 10.23% 2263 -8 -0.35% 9,906 32.65% 31,065 0.26% 2302 -17 -0.74% 527,538 -29.37% 794,329 -1.39% 2596 -11 -0.42% 7,842 19.38% 19,688 9.45% 2637 -9 -0.34% 204 81.86% 393 3.97% 2666 -17 -0.64% 140,702 -15.40% 175,002 0.91% 青冈 嘉吉生化 诸城兴贸 寿光 锦州港 南通港 广东港口 2270 2240 2530 2480 2320 2470 2480 0 0 0 22 0 0 0 -32 -62 228 178 18 168 178 龙凤 中粮 嘉吉 玉峰 金玉米 诸城兴贸 恒仁工贸 2850 2800 2850 3000 2950 2960 2960 0 0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of peanuts remains tight, but downstream demand is still weak, so short - term peanut prices are relatively weak. Peanut oil spot prices are stable, and peanut meal prices have been stable recently. Oil mills' theoretical profit from peanut pressing is acceptable. Peanut 10 futures are expected to have a narrow - range oscillation due to factors such as expected increase in planting area and decrease in planting cost [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Data - **Futures Disk**: PK604 closed at 8048, down 6 (-0.07%), with a trading volume of 29 (down 70.41%) and an open interest of 212 (up 1.44%); PK510 closed at 8102, down 40 (-0.49%), with a trading volume of 70,017 (down 41.26%) and an open interest of 102,299 (up 0.63%); PK601 closed at 8026, down 22 (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 3,631 (down 38.56%) and an open interest of 11,382 (up 4.14%) [3]. - **Spot and Basis**: Henan Nanyang peanut spot price was 9000, Shandong Jining and Linyi were 8400, all unchanged. The price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3300, Rizhao soybean meal was 2850, peanut oil was 15000, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8260 (up 20). The basis of Henan Nanyang peanuts was 898, Shandong Jining and Linyi were 298, and the basis of peanut oil - soybean oil was 6740. The import price of Sudanese peanuts was 8250, unchanged [3]. - **Spreads**: The spread of PK01 - PK04 was - 22 (down 16), PK04 - PK10 was - 54 (up 34), and PK10 - PK01 was 76 (down 18) [3]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. Northeast Jilin Fuyu 308 general peanuts were 4.4 yuan/jin, Liaoning Changtu was 4.4 yuan/jin, Henan's Baisha general peanuts were 4.4 - 4.45 yuan/jin, Shandong Junan was 4.1 yuan/jin, and imported Sudan refined peanuts were 8300 yuan/ton, all unchanged. Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing, with the mainstream transaction price at 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost - break price of oil mills was 8110 yuan/ton. Peanut oil and soybean oil prices were stable, with domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 15000 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 17000 yuan/ton [5]. - Rizhao soybean meal spot price was weak, at 2840 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was high, and short - term peanut meal was weak, with 48 - protein peanut meal at 3250 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Peanut 10 futures are in a low - level oscillation, and short - term investors should wait and see [10]. - **Calendar Spread**: Wait and see [11]. - **Options**: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [12]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Related Attachments - There are six related figures, including Shandong peanut spot price, peanut oil mill pressing profit, peanut oil price, peanut spot and continuous contract basis, peanut 10 - 1 contract spread, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spread [14][21][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber sector continued to strengthen with the macro - environment this week, showing a pattern of widespread simultaneous rises and falls among commodities. The volatility of the rubber sector reached a 5 - year high under the dual drive of the macro - environment and events. Attention can be paid to the strategy of shorting volatility. The market may return to the fundamentals of limited improvement after the macro - sentiment fades [3][5]. - The supply of synthetic rubber has become slightly looser, with a slight increase in the production of butadiene rubber and a slight decrease in the production of semi - steel tires [4]. - Some macro data, such as the CSI 1000 Index and the Citi G10 Economic Surprise Index, are favorable for the unilateral trend of RU, while the supply data of natural rubber shows that only the price of smoked sheet rubber has slightly stabilized and rebounded, and the fundamentals for a recovery are not solid [5]. - The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has affected the market, but the market mainly followed the macro - strengthening logic after a short - term reaction to the potential supply tightening. If the domestic macro - drive weakens next week and the conflict escalates, it may become the main contradiction again [5]. - The mixed basis is bearish and has not been affected by the macro - warming. The supply of natural and synthetic rubber has certain changes, which has an impact on the trend of RU [27][37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - related Data - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6476 points, reaching a new high since January 2016. The average value in the past 6 months increased by +19.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for 12 consecutive months, which is favorable for the unilateral trend of RU [5][18]. - The Citi G10 Economic Surprise Index reported +12.4 points, with the average value in the past 6 months increasing by +6.6 points year - on - year, and the increase expanding for 2 consecutive months, which is also favorable for the unilateral trend of RU [5][18]. 3.2 Impact of the Thailand - Cambodia Border Conflict - Four Thai provinces affected by the conflict account for about 7% of Thailand's total rubber production. In 2024, the total rubber production of these four provinces was 34.1 tons, accounting for 7.1% of Thailand's total production of 478.9 tons. Cambodia's total production in 2024 was 40.7 tons [20][22]. - The RU - NR spread is a good indicator to reflect the impact of the Thailand - Cambodia border conflict. Currently, NR is relatively weak compared to RU, but the conflict is expected to suppress the supply of 20 - grade rubber and make NR relatively stronger. The spread started to move before the unilateral increase on July 24, confirming the supply logic in advance [25][26]. 3.3 Mixed Basis and Supply - demand Factors - In May, the total import volume of standard and mixed rubber from Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia decreased for 2 consecutive months, but the average import volume in the past 6 months increased by +10.1% year - on - year, with the marginal increase for 10 consecutive months, which is bearish for the mixed rubber [28]. - In June, the total import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in China decreased for 3 consecutive months, reaching 60.0 tons. The production of synthetic rubber increased month - on - month, reaching 70.3 tons, and the production of natural rubber increased for 3 consecutive months in May, reaching 9.7 tons. The total of these is 140.0 tons, with the cumulative volume in the past 3 months increasing by +9.3% year - on - year, and the increase narrowing for 2 consecutive months, which is favorable for the unilateral trend of RU [37]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Supply - The capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene increased to 70.0%, with the average capacity utilization rate in the past 5 weeks increasing by +2.3% year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 4 consecutive weeks. The capacity utilization rate of domestic high - cis butadiene rubber increased to 67.6%, with the average capacity utilization rate in the past 5 weeks increasing by +9.4% year - on - year, showing a marginal increase [49]. - The port inventory of domestic butadiene decreased for 2 consecutive weeks, reaching 1.57 tons, with the average inventory in the past 5 weeks increasing by +0.21 tons year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 4 consecutive weeks. The total inventory of domestic butadiene rubber in traders and factories is 3.23 tons, with the average inventory in 5 weeks increasing by +0.90 tons year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 4 consecutive weeks [49]. 3.5 Tire Consumption - The production line operating rate of domestic all - steel tires decreased to 65.0%, with the average operating rate in the past 12 weeks increasing by +3.9% year - on - year, and the marginal increase for 9 consecutive weeks. The finished product inventory of all - steel tires remained unchanged at 41 days, with the average inventory in 24 weeks decreasing by - 2.7% year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 53 consecutive weeks [60]. - The production line operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires decreased to 75.9%, with the average operating rate in the past 24 weeks increasing by +3.4% year - on - year, showing a marginal decrease. The product inventory of semi - steel tires increased by 1 day to 47 days, with the average inventory in the past 24 weeks increasing by +36.5% year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 9 consecutive weeks [60]. 3.6 NR Month - spread - The daily average open interest of the NR contract is equivalent to 115.90 tons, the warehouse receipt volume is 3.48 tons, and the virtual - to - real ratio is 32.30 times. Since the virtual - to - real ratio lags behind the month - spread, it is expected that the decline in the open interest of the NR contract will be greater than the reduction in warehouse receipts in the later period [65]. - From a long - term perspective, the NR month - spread may strengthen until September, and there is a large expectation of weakening after that (the near - month contract weakens). Attention can be paid to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage when the month - spread weakens [65].