| | | | 第一部分 前言概要 | | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 基本面情况 | | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、供应概况 | | 5 | | 三、需求概况 | | 8 | | 四、库存与估值 11 | | | | 第三部分 后市展望及策略推荐 15 | | | | 免责声明 16 | | | 能化板块研发报告 燃料油 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 高硫近端充裕现货压制，低硫偏弱震荡 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 7 月高硫燃料油市场整体受近端高供应和高库存压制，新加坡高硫现货 贴水及裂解低位震荡。需求端交易中东及埃及旺季发电需求回落，中国进料 需求在税改下刚刚开始小幅回升。供应端，市场预期在地缘冲突缓和和欧佩 克增产背景下高硫重质原料回升。 7 月低硫燃料油维持弱势震荡行情。低硫裂解跟随汽油裂解持续下行， 低硫现货贴水在 7 月中下旬也维持 5 美金/吨以下同期低位水平震荡。短中 期供应充裕并存在继续增长预期。需求端无具体利好驱动 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In July 2025, the stock index continued to oscillate upward, breaking through the high of the year, and all industry indices achieved positive returns. Although the market fluctuated at the end of the month, the continuous policy efforts changed market expectations significantly, and the inflow of funds continued. The bullish atmosphere in the stock market became more evident, and the upward trend of the stock index remained unchanged despite the oscillations [3][4][38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market Performance Review - Bottoming Out and Stabilizing - In July 2025, the market continued to oscillate upward. By July 30, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index rose 5.47%, the Shanghai Composite 50 index rose 3.96%, the CSI 500 index rose 6.75%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 5.7% [5]. - All industries achieved positive returns, with non - metallic materials and metal materials rising more than 10% monthly, healthcare having a high increase, and the bank index, the previous market stabilizer, having the smallest increase [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures Performance Review - Continued Convergence of Premium - After June, the premium of stock index futures continued to converge. After the peak of concentrated dividends of listed companies passed and the spot market performed well, the basis returned to normal. After the expiration and delivery of the July contracts and the listing of the 2603 contracts, the basis of the next - quarter contracts of IC and IM expanded periodically, but the basis of IF did not expand significantly, and IH even showed a premium [12]. - In July, the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased steadily. The average daily trading volume of IM, IF, IH, and IC increased by 1.9%, 7.3%, 8.6%, and 6.7% respectively compared with the previous month, and the average daily open interest increased by 1.9%, 3.5%, 8.2%, and 12.1% respectively. The 2509 contract's position as the absolute main contract was unshakable, and it was expected to shift positions to the 2512 contract on a large scale starting in August [16]. - The convergence of the premium significantly reduced the roll - over cost of short positions in stock index futures. The cost of rolling over the current - month contracts of IM, IC, and IF to the next - month contracts was the lowest, with monthly average annualized costs of 9.57%, 7.64%, and 2.82% respectively, down 3.17, 1.68, and 1.53 percentage points from the previous month. The cost of rolling over IH short positions to the next - quarter contracts was the lowest, with a monthly average annualized cost of 0.12% [23]. - From the perspective of the positions of major seats, the net short positions of the major seats of each variety were generally stable. The net short positions of the major seats of IM showed a slight upward trend, with the average monthly net short positions of the top ten seats increasing by 2.4 percentage points compared with the previous month; the average monthly net short positions of the top five seats of IH also increased by 2.4 percentage points compared with the previous month [26]. 3.3 Oscillations Do Not Change the Upward Trend - **Economic Policy Continues to Strengthen**: In July, continuous policy signals changed market expectations significantly. The prices of pro - cyclical commodities reversed sharply, driving up the stock prices of sectors such as rare earths and non - ferrous metals, and also strengthening sectors such as steel and coal, creating a bullish atmosphere in the stock market. Although the market oscillated significantly on July 30, the policy of "regulating disorderly competition among enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations and promoting capacity governance in key industries" is expected to be continuously implemented in the second half of the year, which will have a positive impact on the industry ecosystem and the performance of listed companies [30][31]. - **Event - Driven Re - evaluation**: On July 19, the construction ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held. Affected by this, the Yarlung Zangbo hydropower concept sector and related stocks rose sharply, and sectors such as cement, building materials, engineering machinery, steel, and construction also rose significantly. The project has a long construction period and large investment, which is expected to benefit relevant sectors, and the market may benefit from the re - evaluation of multiple weak sectors [32][33]. - **Continuous Inflow of Funds into the Market**: According to the second - quarter report of public funds, Central Huijin increased its holdings of key broad - based ETFs on a large scale in the second quarter of 2025, with a holding scale exceeding 200 billion yuan, which stabilized market expectations. At the same time, the margin trading balance reached a new high this year, indicating high investor confidence and a positive impact on the market [34][35].

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、供应概况 | | 4 | | 三、需求概况 | | 6 | | 四、库存与估值 | | 8 | | 第三部分 后市展望及策略推荐 | | 9 | | 免责声明 10 | | | 供应库存低位支撑，旺季需求预期仍存 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 7 月原油需求旺季表现中规中矩，近端紧平衡格局维持，地缘及宏观存 在间歇性影响，价格维持区间震荡，沥青成本端价格指引有限，期货主力维 持 3550-3650 元/吨区间内窄幅震荡。月内主力炼厂维持间歇生产，个别炼 厂有所降产、停产，区内供应压力有限，支撑沥青现货价格整体小幅上行， 华东及山东基差均高位维持。需求逐步改善但受天气因素影响不及预期，山 东需求受高温及降雨影响，华南需求受台风天气影响，华南现货价格下跌， 华南基差也环比回落，处于同期中位水平。 【市场展望】 3 季度供应端弹性有限，中石化预计低产 ...

| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | --- | --- | | | 2 | | | 2 | | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 行情复盘与前瞻 3 | | | 3 | | | 4 | | 第三部分 | 宏观面因素 5 | | | 5 | | | 6 | | 第四部分 | 基本面因素 8 | | | 8 | | | 8 | | | 9 | | | 9 | | | 10 | | | 10 | | | 11 | | 第五部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 12 | | | 免责声明 13 | 有色板块研发报告 贵金属 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 弱预期遭遇强现实 贵金属价格高位震荡 第一部分 前言概要 银河期货 第 2 页 共 13 页 有色板块研发报告 贵金属 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 第二部分 行情复盘与前瞻 图表 3：沪金盘面走势 单位：元/克 图表 4：沪银盘面走势 单位：元/千克 第 3 页 共 13 页 贵金属 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 图表 1：伦敦金盘面走势 单位：美元/盎司 图表 2：伦敦银盘面走势 单位：美元/盎司 有色板块研发报告 第 4 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase, and the short - term tightness in the trade flow will ease. Raw sugar is expected to trade in a range, with short - term price movements influenced by phased production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in output [7]. - Domestically, the sales and production speed is fast, and inventory reduction is ahead of schedule. With the tightening of syrup import policies, how to fill the production - demand gap has become the focus. As imported sugar has not entered the domestic market in large quantities, it is expected to support sugar prices. However, due to the weak raw sugar prices and falling imported sugar prices, the upside potential of sugar prices is limited, and sugar prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term [7]. - The decline in Brazil's sugar production year - on - year has raised market concerns, but it has already been priced in the market. Considering the expected loose global sugar supply - demand situation, raw sugar is expected to trade in a range in the short term. In the domestic market, the inventory reduction of domestic sugar is progressing well, and inventory pressure is limited. Affected by the international market, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,804, down 63 or 1.07%, with a trading volume of 234,894 (an increase of 74,893) and an open interest of 310,585 (a decrease of 33,554); SR01 closed at 5,701, down 74 or 1.28%, with a trading volume of 21,005 (an increase of 3,812) and an open interest of 45,235 (an increase of 693); SR05 closed at 5,615, down 47 or 0.83%, with a trading volume of 196 (an increase of 49) and an open interest of 458 (an increase of 78) [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of sugar in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 6,120, 5,905, 6,320, 6,050, 6,175, 6,135, and 6,420 respectively, with no change. The corresponding basis were 316, 101, 516, 246, 371, 331, and 616 [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The SR5 - SR01 spread was - 86 (up 27), the SR09 - SR5 spread was 189 (down 16), and the SR09 - SR01 spread was 103 (up 11) [5]. - **Import Profits**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE主力 price of 16.56, a premium of - 0.2, and a freight of 38, the in - quota price was 4,474, the out - of - quota price was 5,699, the spread with Liuzhou was 421, the spread with Rizhao was 436, and the spread with the futures market was 105; for Thai imports, with an ICE主力 price of 16.56, a premium of 0.9, and a freight of 18, the in - quota price was 4,525, the out - of - quota price was 5,766, the spread with Liuzhou was 354, the spread with Rizhao was 369, and the spread with the futures market was 38 [5]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **International Market**: Considering Brazil's approaching supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to accumulate, and the short - term tight trade flow will ease. Raw sugar is expected to trade in a range, with short - term price movements affected by production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in output [7]. - **Domestic Market**: The fast sales and production speed and pre - emptive inventory reduction, along with the tightening of syrup import policies, make the filling of the production - demand gap a focus. As imported sugar has not entered the domestic market in large quantities, it will support sugar prices. However, due to weak raw sugar prices and falling imported sugar prices, the upside potential of sugar prices is limited, and sugar prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to trade slightly stronger in a range, but the upside potential is limited. Long positions are recommended to gradually take profits and exit [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12]. - **Options**: Sell put options [13]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report includes 10 figures showing various data such as regional monthly inventories, new industrial inventories, cumulative sales - to - production ratios of domestic sugar, spot prices, spot price spreads, basis, and futures spreads, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [14][18][23][27][29][32]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Eggs Daily Report" [2] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3636, down 7 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3480, up 5; JD09 closed at 3570, down 6 [3] - 01 - 05 spread closed at 156, down 12; 05 - 09 spread closed at -90, up 11; 09 - 01 spread closed at -66, up 1 [3] - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.64, down 0.01; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.19, down 0.01 [3] Spot Market - Main producing area average price was 3.25 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day; main selling area average price was 3.43 yuan/jin, unchanged [3][6] - National mainstream prices were mostly stable, with some regions showing small fluctuations [6] Profit Calculation - Average price of culled chickens was 5.81 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin; average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan/feather [3] - Egg - laying hen profit was 18.80 yuan/feather, down 0.13 yuan/feather from the previous day [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - In June, the national laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [7] - In June, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 40.75 million, a month - on - month decrease of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [7] - From July to October 2025, the estimated laying hen inventories are 1.349 billion, 1.353 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.343 billion respectively [7] - From July 18 - 24, the national main producing area culled chicken slaughter volume was 13.38 million, a decrease of 11% from the previous week [7] - As of July 24, the average culling age of culled chickens was 506 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [7] - As of July 24, the national representative selling area egg sales volume was 8032 tons, an increase of 1.8% from the previous week [7] - As of July 24, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.04 days, unchanged [7] - As of July 24, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.03 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.45 yuan/jin from the previous week; on July 25, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 13.97 yuan/feather, an increase of 2.06 yuan/feather from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - Recent egg prices have stabilized at the current level, and spot prices are expected to strengthen seasonally. After the plum - rain season and with pre - Mid - Autumn Festival food factory stocking, prices are expected to rise after reaching the bottom, but the increase may be limited due to the current loose production capacity [10] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the safety margin is high [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Sell put options [11]

报告标题 - Sugar Monthly Report, July 30, 2025 [12][18][23] 报告内容目录 第一部分：前言概要 - 巴西制糖比维持高位，需关注实际糖产情况 [5] 第二部分：基本面情况 - 包含WTI原油与ICE11号糖价格走势、ICE11号糖与CZCE郑糖价格走势等多组数据图表，涉及全球、巴西、印度、泰国、中国等地区食糖供需格局、产量、库存、出口、价格等方面内容 [15][19][24] 第三部分：后市展望及策略推荐 - 文档未阐述具体内容 [82]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - After the US corn planting is completed, the US corn market is weak. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the US corn price continues to decline, but the potential for further decline is limited due to possible weather - related speculations. China has reinstated a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. Foreign corn imports are profitable, with the August import price from Brazil at 1,971 yuan. The domestic corn market has different trends in different regions, with short - term stability in the north and tight supply in North China. The corn starch market sees inventory reduction, and the price is affected by corn price and downstream stocking. The 09 contracts of both corn and starch are expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [5][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2,218 with a 0.14% increase, C2605 at 2,263 with no change, C2509 at 2,312 with a 0.43% increase. Their trading volumes decreased by 47.04%, 46.94%, and 32.39% respectively, and the open interests decreased by 2.28%, 2.85%, and 5.54% respectively. For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2,596 with no change, CS2605 at 2,638 with a 0.04% increase, CS2509 at 2,683 with a 0.63% increase. Their trading volumes decreased by 30.17%, 46.09%, and 38.71% respectively, and the open interests changed by 3.77%, 9.67%, and - 5.63% respectively [3]. 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Qinggang was 2,270 yuan with no change, while the price in Shouguang increased by 20 yuan. The basis for corn in different regions ranged from - 72 to 218. Starch spot prices also varied. The price of Longfeng starch increased by 50 yuan, and the basis for starch in different regions ranged from 162 to 382 [3]. 3.1.3 Spread - Corn inter - delivery spreads: C01 - C05 was - 45 with a 3 - point increase, C05 - C09 was - 49 with a 10 - point decrease, C09 - C01 was 94 with a 7 - point increase. Starch inter - delivery spreads: CS01 - CS05 was - 42 with a 1 - point decrease, CS05 - CS09 was - 45 with a 16 - point decrease, CS09 - CS01 was 87 with a 17 - point increase. Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 was 371 with a 7 - point increase, CS01 - C01 was 378 with a 3 - point decrease, CS05 - C05 was 375 with a 1 - point increase [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn market is weak but has limited downside due to potential weather speculation. China's tariff policies on US corn and sorghum are in place, and foreign corn imports are profitable. The northern port flat - hatch prices are stable, and the Northeast corn is stable. North China's corn supply is tight, and the wheat - corn substitution continues. The domestic corn demand is weak, and the short - term corn spot price is relatively stable. The 09 corn contract is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [5][7]. 3.2.2 Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the Shandong corn spot price is strong. The starch inventory has decreased this week, with the factory inventory at 129.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons from last week. The by - product price is strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. The 09 starch contract is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The domestic 09 corn will continue to have narrow - range fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Arbitrage: Buy spot and short 09 corn in a rolling manner, and wait and see on the spread between 09 corn and starch [9][10]. 3.4 Corn Options - For enterprises with spot, they can close out short positions of corn call options, or short - term investors can try to sell on rallies [13]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include charts of corn spot prices in different regions, corn 09 contract basis, corn 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 09 contract basis, and corn starch - corn 09 contract spread, which help to visually understand the price trends and relationships of corn and corn starch [14][16][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's risk - aversion sentiment is easing due to the approaching effectiveness of reciprocal tariffs and the progress of trade talks. However, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies may lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and the Fed's independence is also unclear. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level volatility. - For various metals, their prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policy expectations, and macro - economic data. Each metal has different trading strategies according to its specific situation [2][4]. 3. Summaries by Metal Types Precious Metals Market Review - London gold fell for four consecutive days, closing down 0.68% at $3314.63 per ounce; London silver closed flat at $38.17 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures fell 0.31% to 770.84 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.27% to 9200 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index rose 1% to 98.633, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.417%, and the RMB against the US dollar fell 0.15% to 7.1787 [2]. Important资讯 - Trump may announce tariffs on drugs, with global tariffs around 15 - 20%. Sino - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm on July 28. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 96.9%, and in September is 35.4% [2]. Logic Analysis - Market risk - aversion sentiment eases, and the short - term rebound of the US dollar pressures precious metals. In the long run, precious metals are expected to maintain high - level volatility due to uncertainties [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Buy deep out - of - the - money call options on dips [4]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 79010 yuan per ton, up 0.04%, with the index reducing positions by 617 to 498300 lots. LME copper closed at $9762.5 per ton, down 0.34%. LME inventory increased by 3700 tons to 128000 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 776 tons to 248000 tons [6]. Important资讯 - Sino - US trade talks were held on July 28. Peru is evaluating 134 mining projects with an expected investment of $6 billion [6]. Logic Analysis - Market is affected by tariff expectations. Domestic smelters maintain high production, and supply and demand are weak [9]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term pressure and oscillation. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [10]. Alumina Market Review - Alumina 2509 contract fell 14 yuan to 3260 yuan per ton at night. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [12]. Important资讯 - Some alumina enterprises did not receive environmental control notices. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a work plan for the stable growth of key industries. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for 10000 tons of alumina. The national alumina operating capacity increased by 1.1 million tons to 94.95 million tons, with an operating rate of 84.01% [12][14]. Logic Analysis - Speculative sentiment cools, and the price is under pressure. The theoretical surplus expands, and the inventory has been increasing since June [15]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under pressure and oscillating, pay attention to cost support. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract rose 10 yuan to 20660 yuan per ton at night. Aluminum ingot spot prices in different regions fell [19]. Important资讯 - China's aluminum ingot inventory increased by 20000 tons to 514000 tons. The price law is being revised. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and the US will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods. Huafeng Aluminum plans to purchase at least 360000 tons of aluminum products from Shaanxi Non - ferrous Yulin New Materials Group [20][21]. Logic Analysis - Macro factors affect the market. Domestically, the inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to increase, and the spread between months may narrow first and then widen [22][24]. Trading Strategy - No specific strategy provided in the content. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 20055 yuan per ton at night. ADC12 alloy ingot spot prices in different regions fell [26]. Important资讯 - The weekly output of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 800 tons to 141600 tons, and the total inventory increased by 4600 tons to 132400 tons. The price law is being revised [27]. Logic Analysis - Supply is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and demand is affected by different types of orders. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost following the aluminum price [28]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under pressure. - Arbitrage: Consider positive spread trading for 09 - 12 contracts after the spread converges due to inventory accumulation. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [29]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 0.83% to $2805.5 per ton, and Shanghai zinc 2509 fell 0.31% to 22665 yuan per ton. Shanghai zinc index reduced positions by 1756 to 222600 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai were between 22670 - 22775 yuan per ton, and the spot premium slightly increased [33]. Important资讯 - SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased to 103700 tons. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will carry out a rectification action for heavy - metal environmental safety hazards [33]. Logic Analysis - The supply of zinc concentrates is sufficient, and the output of refined zinc is expected to increase. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating [34][36]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Profitable short positions can be held, set stop - profit points. - Arbitrage: Buy put options. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [36]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.15% to $2017.5 per ton, and Shanghai lead 2509 rose 0.03% to 16945 yuan per ton. Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 2285 to 99700 lots. Spot prices in different regions had different quotations, and the market trading was light [38]. Important资讯 - SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory increased to 71700 tons. Guizhou Lukong Environmental Protection Technology's smelting system was successfully put into operation, with an annual production capacity of 200000 tons of lead ingots. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will carry out a rectification action for heavy - metal environmental safety hazards [38][40]. Logic Analysis - The cost of recycled lead supports the price. The supply is affected by production inspections and losses, and the terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has slightly improved [40]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Profitable long positions can be held, beware of macro risks. - Arbitrage: Sell put options. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [43]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell to $15230 per ton, and its inventory increased to 204036 tons. Shanghai nickel NI2509 fell to 122130 yuan per ton. Jinchuan nickel's premium increased to 2150 yuan per ton [42]. Important资讯 - Indonesia is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring a nickel smelter. A new nickel project in Indonesia is expected to start in Q4 2025, with an annual ore - processing target of 8 million tons [42][45]. Logic Analysis - The market atmosphere is weak, and the supply and demand of nickel are weak in July and August, with the price oscillating [45]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term follow the macro - atmosphere. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Sell deep out - of - the - money put options [46]. Stainless Steel Market Review - Stainless steel SS2509 contract fell to 12875 yuan per ton. Cold - rolled prices were 12550 - 12750 yuan per ton, and hot - rolled prices were 12300 - 12350 yuan per ton [48]. Important资讯 - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is expected to drive the demand for stainless steel. A company plans to build a new stainless - steel slab continuous casting line with an annual output of 400000 tons [50]. Logic Analysis - The speculative atmosphere cools, and the demand is affected by tariffs and the off - season. The price is higher than the cost, and the market trades based on the macro - logic [50]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term return to the oscillation range. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [50]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - Industrial silicon futures opened low, rose, and then hit the limit down. Spot prices generally weakened by 100 - 200 yuan per ton [52]. Important资讯 - There are rumors that the industry will hold an anti - involution meeting on August 4 [52]. Logic Analysis - The supply is increasing, and the demand shows different trends. The price may fall in the medium - long term, but there may be a short - term rebound [54]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: May rebound in the short term, weak in the medium - long term. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread for 11, 12 contracts/positive spread for 11, 10 contracts, participate in the butterfly strategy. - Options: Hold the previous protective put options [54]. Polysilicon Market Review - Polysilicon futures hit the limit down three times and then closed at 49405 yuan per ton. Spot prices were in different ranges [56]. Important资讯 - The price of photovoltaic silicon wafers continued to rise [56]. Logic Analysis - The "anti - involution" sentiment affects the price. If the capacity - integration meeting has positive results, the long - term expectation may reverse [57]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Participate with a strategy of futures long positions + protective put options after the correction. - Arbitrage: Long polysilicon, short industrial silicon for the long - term; reverse spread for polysilicon far - month contracts [57]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The 2509 contract fell to 73120 yuan per ton, and the exchange's warehouse receipts increased to 12276 tons. Spot prices increased [59]. Important资讯 - The sales of new - energy vehicles in the world and China showed growth trends [59]. Logic Analysis - The price limit - down was affected by news. The price range is 67000 - 83560 yuan per ton, and there may be a low opening [60]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term speculative atmosphere is strong, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Arbitrage: Enterprises with long - term agreements can consider cash - and - carry arbitrage. - Options: Wait and see [60]. Tin Market Review - Shanghai tin 2509 contract fell to 267310 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees showed different changes, and the market trading was light [63]. Important资讯 - Sino - US trade talks were held on July 28. The national industrial and information work conference was held [63]. Logic Analysis - Sino - US trade talks aim to extend the trade truce. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is affected by the off - season [64]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price fluctuates with the market sentiment. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [64][66].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, it is expected that the high price of oils and fats will correct. One can consider buying on dips after the correction. For YP09, a short - term rebound is possible, and one can consider shorting the spread after the rebound. For P15, one can consider widening the spread after the correction. In the options market, one can consider selling put options or buying call options after the correction [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On July 29, 2025, for soybeans, the 2509 closing price was 8226 with a rise of 106. In different regions, spot prices varied, and the basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin was 200, 150, and 110 respectively. For palm oil, the 2509 closing price was 8970 with a rise of 24, and the basis also differed by region. For rapeseed oil, the 2509 closing price was 9492 with a rise of 86, and the basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi also had their own values [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 9 - 1 monthly spread of soybeans was 38 with a fall of 6, that of palm oil was 2 with a fall of 12, and that of rapeseed oil was 50 with a rise of 1 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 09 contract of Y - P was (744) with a fall of 20, OI - Y was 1266, and OI - P was 522 with a rise of 62. The oil - meal ratio was 2.76 with a rise of 0.04 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil's盘面 profit from Malaysia and Indonesia was (111), and the 盘面 profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was (869) [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 29th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybeans was 59.1 million tons, that of palm oil was 61.6 million tons, and that of rapeseed oil was 67.3 million tons [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: If the Indonesian government implements the B50 biofuel regulation, domestic palm oil consumption demand is expected to increase by 3 million tons, equivalent to 6.2% of the country's 2024 crude palm oil production of 48.2 million tons. The implementation of this regulation is expected to support palm oil prices in 2026, offsetting the negative impact of the US import tariff increase. Starting from August 1, 2025, the US will impose an additional 19% and 25% import tariffs on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil respectively [5]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: As of July 25, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 615,500 tons, a 4.08% increase from the previous week. The origin quotation decreased, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable. With the arrival of palm oil and inventory accumulation, the upward movement of the futures price was suppressed. One can consider buying on dips [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: On the day, the soybean oil futures price rose by more than 1%. The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills last week was 2.2389 million tons, and the operating rate was 62.94%. As of July 25, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.0881 million tons, a 0.34% decrease from the previous week. The basis was stable. With a large amount of domestic soybeans arriving at ports and high - level crushing, soybean oil entered a phased inventory - accumulation period. One can consider buying on dips [7][9]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On the day, the rapeseed oil futures price slightly declined. The rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills last week was 56,000 tons, and the operating rate was 14.93%. As of July 25, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 673,000 tons, a decrease from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation increased, and the import profit inversion expanded. The spot market was inactive, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decline. The price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and one should continue to pay attention to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchasing and policy changes [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term, expect a correction in the high price of oils and fats, and consider buying on dips after the correction [11]. - **Arbitrage**: YP09 may rebound in the short - term, and one can consider shorting the spread after the rebound. P15 can be considered for widening the spread after the correction [11]. - **Options**: After the correction, one can consider selling put options or buying call options [12]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides 8 graphs, including the spot basis of East - China first - grade soybean oil, South - China 24 - degree palm oil, East - China third - grade rapeseed oil, monthly spreads of Y, P, OI, and cross - variety spreads of Y - P and OI - Y [15][18].