大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 9 月 25 日星期四 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 1.期货：今日沪铜 2511 合约收于 82710 元/吨，涨幅 3.4%，沪铜指数增仓 89053 手至 55.28 万手。 2.现货：铜价强势拉涨，成交以刚需采购为主，沪铜现货成交弱势。报升水 30 元/吨，较上 一交易日下跌 25 元/吨。广东市场流通货源有限，成交表现清淡，报升水 60 元/吨，下跌 10 元/吨。华北下游企业难以接受铜价大幅上涨，基本备货动作全无，报贴水 90 元/吨，持 平上一交易日。 【重要资讯】 1.截至 9 月 25 日周四，SMM 全国主流地区铜库存较周一减少 0.44 万吨至 14.01 万吨，较上 周四下降 0.88 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 09 月 25 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3260 元（+10），北京敬业 3190 元（-），上海鞍钢热 卷 3400 元（-），天津河钢热卷 3330 元（-）。 【交易策略】 今日黑色板块依然维持震荡走势，钢材现货成交整体一般，节前补库仍在持续。 本周钢联数据公布，五大材总体增产，但热轧有所减产；受供应压力影响，热卷表需 有所走弱，但螺纹需求持续修复，叠加天气转凉，下游需求出现好转，使得五大材表 需整体上升，钢材库存进入拐点，五大材转向去库，热轧累库速度放缓。预计本周铁 水产量仍然维持高位，近期华南地区台风袭来，叠加下周双节开启，可能影响部分工 地需求。但天气逐渐转凉，节后钢材需求或出现一定修复。9 月中旬开始市场消息偏 多，导致盘面快速上涨，至目前缺乏 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The ferroalloy futures prices generally rose on September 25. Driven by the overall commodity market sentiment and cost - side factors, the prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but the upside is limited by high supply [7]. - For silicon ferroalloy, although the short - term negative feedback risk has eased and the overall commodity market sentiment is positive, the problem of high supply still exists [7]. - For manganese silicon, the short - term demand is relatively stable, and the cost - side drives the price to be strong in the short term, but the high supply also restricts the upside [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5786, up 44 (0.77%) daily and 30 weekly, with a trading volume of 201,194 (up 11,513 daily) and an open interest of 188,023 (down 10,222 daily). The closing price of the SM main contract was 5938, up 22 (0.37%) daily and down 32 weekly, with a trading volume of 219,803 (up 50,391 daily) and an open interest of 332,429 (down 1344 daily) [4]. - **Spot Data**: The spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5480, unchanged daily and up 30 weekly. The spot price of silicon - manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5700, down 30 daily and 30 weekly. Different regions showed different price changes [4]. - **Basis/Spread Data**: For silicon ferroalloy, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 306, down 44 daily and unchanged weekly. For manganese silicon, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 238, down 52 daily and up 2 weekly. The SF - SM spread was - 152, up 22 daily and 62 weekly [4]. - **Raw Material Data**: The price of Australian manganese ore lumps in Tianjin was 39.8, down 0.2 daily and 0.4 weekly. The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore from South Africa was 34.2, unchanged daily and down 0.1 weekly. The price of blue charcoal small materials in Shaanxi was 700, unchanged daily and up 40 weekly [4]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Driven by the overall commodity sentiment and cost - side, it is strong in the short term, but the upside is limited by high supply. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Options**: Sell a straddle option combination [8]. - **Important Information**: United Mining (CML) announced its November 2025 offer to China for Australian lumps (Mn>46% Fe<6% Si02<18%) at 4.65 US dollars per ton - degree, up 0.08 US dollars per ton - degree month - on - month. Comilog's November 2025 offer for Gabonese lumps shipped to China was 4.35 US dollars per ton - degree (up 0.08) [9][10]. Related Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including the price trends of ferroalloy main contracts, basis, inter - month spreads, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon, showing data changes over different time periods [11][14][15]

大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 09 月 25 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 805.5 | 803.5 | 2.0 | I01-I05 | 20.0 | 20.5 | -0.5 | | DCE05 | 785.5 | 783.0 | 2.5 | I05-I09 | 20.5 | 21.0 | -0.5 | | DCE09 | 765.0 | 762.0 | 3.0 | I09-I01 | -40.5 | -41.5 | 1.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 783 | 783 | 0 | 853 | 41 | 62 | 83 | | 纽曼粉 | 790 | 790 | 0 | 845 | 34 | 54 | 75 | | 麦克粉 | 785 | 788 | -3 | 852 | 40 | 61 | 82 | ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属早报 2025 年 09 月 25 日 公众号二维码 银河投研黑色与有色 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F03105917 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 黑色金属每日早盘观察 钢材 昨日夜盘黑色板块维持震荡走势，24 日建筑钢材成交为 10.39 万吨。本周布谷网数据 公布，螺纹转向增产，而热卷增产速度下滑；钢材整体仍然累库，但累库速度放缓， 导致本周钢材表需加速修复。预计本周铁水产量仍然维持高位，近期华南地区台风袭 来，可能影响部分工地需求。但天气逐渐转凉，节后钢材需求或出现一定修复，钢材 可能步入库存拐点。9 月中旬开始市场消息偏多，导致盘面快速上涨，至目前缺乏进一 步上涨的驱动。节前多头资金可能陆续离场，近期螺纹又开始复产，因此钢材压力仍 存，节前节后一周左右可能又有下跌风险。若 10 月下游需求存在超预期修复，则钢价 存在进一步上涨可能，此外"十五五"计划内容也会影响盘面波动，后续需要关注旺季 需求 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 9 月 24 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 【重要资讯】 1、咨询公司 StoneX 周二发布了对下一榨季的首次预测，预计巴西中南部地区 2026/27 年度的糖产量将达到 4210 万吨，同比增长 5.7%。StoneX 补充称，该地区 2026/27 年度的甘 蔗压榨量或达到 6.205 亿吨，同比增长 3.6% 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,478 | 45 | 0.83% | 666 | 107 | 2,422 | 131 | | SR01 | | 5,497 | 53 | 0.97% | 287,568 | 65357 | 43 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 9 月 24 日星期三 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，伦敦金再将历史新高刷新至 3790 美元上方，但随后有所回落， | | 研究员：王伟 | 并一度跌破 3760 美元，最终收涨 0.46%，收报 3764.02 美元/盎司；伦敦银先涨后跌， | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 并在美盘时段回吐日内全部涨幅，最终收跌 0.07%，报 44.02 美元/盎司。受汇率因素和 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 外盘共同作用，沪金主力合约收涨 1.02%，报 859.88 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 | | | 0.80%，报 10394 元/千克。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 2.美元指数：美元指数在 97 关口上方震荡，最终收跌 0.08%，报 97.22。 | | 期货从业证号：F ...

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 9 月 24 日星期三 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2511 合约收于 79960 元/吨，涨幅 0.03%，沪铜指数减仓 2833 手至 46.39 万手。 2.现货：国庆备货情绪较弱，沪铜现货升水继续僵持，报升水 55 元/吨，持平上一交易日。 广东受台风影响到货量继续下降，今日交投冷清，报升水 70 元/吨，持平昨日。华北消费 疲软，延续清淡格局，报贴水 90 元/吨，持平昨日。 【重要资讯】 1. 9 月 23 日，加拿大矿业公司 Hudbay Minerals 周二表示，因安全问题，旗下位于秘鲁 Con ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain volatile and weak in the short - term, but there may be a demand recovery after the holiday and a potential inventory inflection point. The "15th Five - Year Plan" and peak season demand will affect the price trend [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is currently in short - term shock adjustment with unclear drivers. In the medium - term, there are policy disturbances on the supply side, so a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but caution is needed regarding the upside potential [9][10]. - The iron ore market has seen prices oscillate. The price may be under pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter [15]. - The ferroalloy market has high supply pressure. For both silicon iron and manganese silicon, it is recommended to short on rebounds [20][21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Related Information**: If the South Korean K - steel bill is implemented, China's medium - thick plate and hot - rolled coil exports to South Korea may be severely affected. In August, the national electricity consumption reached 1015.4 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5%. Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major regions declined [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was weak and volatile last night. Construction steel trading volume on the 23rd was 92,000 tons. There was a production divergence among the five major steel products last week. Currently in the off - season, demand recovery is average. After the parade, steel demand followed the seasonal pattern. Iron - water production is expected to remain high this week. Steel demand may recover after the holiday [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: maintain a volatile and weak trend; Arbitrage: hold long 1 - 5 spreads and short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; Options: wait and see [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, Mongolian coal ports will be closed for 7 days. Recently, the coking coal spot price has generally risen, and coke has a price increase expectation. Various coke and coking coal warehouse - receipt prices are provided [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The night - session continued to oscillate. The market has digested the expectation of pre - holiday raw material restocking. The spot price is still rising. In the long - run, coal production may be restricted by policies, but the upside of coking coal prices is limited by steel demand and profits [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: short - term shock adjustment, medium - term buy on dips with caution about the upside [10][12]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The OECD predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 3.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. In August, the national electricity consumption reached 1015.4 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From September 15th - 21st, the transaction area of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities increased year - on - year. Iron ore spot prices in Qingdao Port declined [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated last night. This week, the price first rose and then fell. The third - quarter supply of major mines improved, and non - mainstream mines maintained high shipments. Terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas steel demand remained high. The price may be under pressure at high levels [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: mainly hedge at high spot prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: mainly use circuit - breaker accumulative put options [16][18]. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: On the 23rd, the prices of different manganese ores in Tianjin Port were reported. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 93% [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon iron, the spot price fluctuated on the 23rd. Supply is at a high level, and demand may decline in the future. It can be shorted near the resistance range of 5700 - 5800. For manganese silicon, the manganese ore spot price was weak, and the supply was still high. It can be shorted near the resistance range of 5900 - 6000 [20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: short on rebounds due to high supply pressure; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell straddle option combinations [21].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 9 月 24 日 【生猪日报】出栏压力略有好转 现货小幅震荡 Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/9/24 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 12.78 | 12.88 | -0.10 | 山西 （-100） | 12.24 | 12.28 | -0.04 | | 湖北（0） | 12.52 | 12.52 | 0.00 | 辽 宁 | 12.69 | 12.65 | 0.04 | | 安徽（200） | 12.87 | 12.90 | -0.03 | 吉林（-300） | 12.68 | 12.65 | 0.03 | | 湖南（100） | 12.40 | 12.40 | 0.00 | 黑龙江 | 12.59 | 12 ...