| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、供应概况 | | 4 | | 三、需求概况 | | 6 | | 四、库存与估值 | | 8 | | 第三部分 后市展望及策略推荐 | | 9 | | 免责声明 10 | | | 能化板块研发报告 沥青 9 月报 2025 年 9 月 26 日 供应增长，终端需求释放有限 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 9 月地缘和宏观间歇性影响油价，原油价格维持宽幅震荡，稀释沥青贴 水暂时维持稳定。9 月份沥青供应端持续增加，终端需求环比回升，逐渐进 入旺季。供需双旺的格局下，产业链库存持续下降。当前炼厂库存低位，去 库速度偏慢；社会库存持续下降，年底前存在主动去库的意向，为市场提供 额外供应。估值端，当前炼厂加工利润尚可，支撑地炼开工高位，沥青估值 相对偏高。 【市场展望】 油价近端反弹较强势，沥青成本端获得一定支撑，但现货价格表现偏弱。 供应持续增加，需求受 ...

能化板块研发报告 | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | | 二、供应概况 | 5 | | | 三、需求概况 | 8 | | | 四、库存与估值 11 | | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 15 | | | | 免责声明 16 | | 燃料油 9 月报 2025 年 9 月 26 日 高硫供需实际宽松，低硫供应压力小于预期 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 9 月高硫燃料油供需端均存在利多驱动，高硫裂解在当月稳步回升约 1.8 美金/桶至-3.2 美金/桶附近。供应端市场仍对俄罗斯燃料油出口损失存 在担忧。需求端，中国地炼四季度原油配额预期不足同时燃油裂解下行加工 经济性回升，国内进料需求开始回升。 9 月低硫燃料油偏弱震荡维持。尼日利亚 Dangote 炼厂 RFCC 装置于 8 月底再次故障停运，9 月低硫出售招标与出口物流也明显增长，低硫近端 供应压力增长。中国第三批低硫配额下 ...

黑色板块研发报告 铁合金 10 月报 2025 年 9 月 26 日 高供应博弈成本支撑，合金底部震荡 第一部分 前言概要 银河期货 第 1 页 共 10 页 黑色板块研发报告 铁合金 10 月报 2025 年 9 月 26 日 第二部分 基本面情况 图 1：铁合金主力合约走势回顾（元/吨） 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 硅铁主力 硅锰主力 图 4：72%FeSi 内蒙硅铁现货市场价（元/吨） 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 第 2 页 共 10 页 图 2：盘面主力合约 sf-sm 价差（元/吨） -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4500 4700 4900 5100 5300 5500 5700 5900 6100 6300 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Steel 10 Monthly Report" dated September 26, 2025, issued by Galaxy Futures [1][6][21] Core Viewpoint - The demand for steel is improving, and the valuation is low, so there is room for steel price repair [1] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Situation - **Price and Basis**: The report provides seasonal charts of Shanghai 20mm螺纹现货价格, Shanghai 4.75mm热卷现货价格, 螺纹 01 合约基差, and 热卷 01 合约基差, etc. [8][11] - **Production**: It includes statistics on monthly pig iron production, monthly crude steel production, 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal output, and 89 independent electric arc furnace capacity utilization [26][27] - **Import and Export**: Charts show steel import quantity, billet import quantity, steel export volume, and billet export volume [29][58] - **Demand and Inventory**: There are data on the weekly apparent demand and total inventory of five major steel varieties, as well as those of 螺纹钢 and 热卷 [41][42][48] 2. October Market Outlook - **Profit and Production**: The report presents the 01 合约螺纹盘面利润, 01 合约热卷盘面利润, 螺纹周产量, and 热卷周产量 [25][70] - **Macro - economic Indicators**: It includes social financing scale new additions, new RMB loans, fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, and other macro - economic data [76][80] - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: Data on real estate such as commercial housing sales area monthly year - on - year, housing new construction area monthly year - on - year, and infrastructure - related data like local government special bond issuance amount are provided [82][97] - **Industrial Indicators**: It shows PMI sub - item performance, manufacturing PMI, industrial enterprise profit total cumulative year - on - year, and other industrial indicators [107][110] - **Downstream Industries**: Data on downstream industries including China's automobile monthly output, civil steel ship production year - on - year, etc. are presented [118]

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 9 月 25 日星期四 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | 研究员：王伟 | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，因美元走强，伦敦金从历史高位回落，盘中一度跌至 3717.52 | | | 美元的低点，较日高大跌 60 美元，但随后收复部分失地，最终收跌 0.72%，收报 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 3735.805 美元/盎司；伦敦银收跌 0.3%，报 43.885 美元/盎司。受汇率因素和外盘共同 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 作用，沪金主力合约收跌 0.65%，报 853.06 元/克，沪银主力合约收跌 0.52%，报 10349 | | | 元/千克。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 2.美元指数：美元指数日内持续上涨，并一度逼近 98 美元关口，但未能上破此处，最 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product daily report dated September 25, 2024, focusing on cotton and cotton yarn [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,530 with a decrease of 25, trading volume of 246,394 hands (an increase of 67,330), and open interest of 525,141 (a decrease of 3,151) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,680 with a decrease of 30, trading volume of 656 hands (an increase of 229), and open interest of 771 (an increase of 305) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B price was 15,083 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; CY IndexC32S price was 20,615 yuan, unchanged [3] - Cot A price was 78.15 cents/pound, up 0.30 cents; FCY IndexC33S price was 21,464 yuan, up 22 yuan [3] Price Spreads - Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was -5, down 20;棉纱 1 - 5 month spread was -85, down 19,795 [3] - CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,150, down 5; 1% tariff内外棉价差 was 1,222, up 21 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market - In India, from September 18 - 24, 2025, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 41.8mm, 8.7mm higher than normal and 15.7mm higher than last year [6] - In the US, the average temperature in the main cotton - growing areas (92.9% output share) was 79.07°F, 2.99°F higher than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.48 inches, 0.37 inches lower than last year [6] - This year, Xinjiang cotton output is expected to increase more than expected, while ginning mills' acquisition enthusiasm is average, and large - scale rush to buy is not expected. The expected acquisition price is around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg [7] Trading Logic - As new cotton is gradually being acquired, the market focus is shifting to the new cotton opening price. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there will be some selling hedging pressure on the futures market [7] - In September, the market's peak season has arrived, but the improvement in downstream demand is limited, so this year's peak season is expected to be average, and its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate mainly, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly. It is recommended to trade opportunistically [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [10] Cotton Yarn Industry - Last night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated to 13,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35. Cotton yarn futures declined significantly. The pure cotton yarn market generally remained unchanged, and the peak - season trading was not as good as previous years [9] - The cotton - fabric market lacks stamina, with small orders maintained and large orders scarce. There is price competition, and the price difference between different weavers for regular varieties is about 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/meter [12] Group 4: Options Option Data - On September 25, 2025, for CF601C14000.CZC, the closing price was 111.00, a decrease of 27.0%, with an implied volatility of 11.7% [14] - For CF601P13600.CZC, the closing price was 297.00, an increase of 20.7%, with an implied volatility of 10.6% [14] Volatility and Strategy - Today, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.4409, with a slight decrease in volatility. The implied volatility of relevant options varied [14] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton showed that both call and put trading volumes increased today. The option strategy is to wait and see [15][16]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 9 月 25 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： 联系方式： liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,470 | -8 | -0.15% | 386 | -280 | 2,436 | 14 | | SR01 | | 5,485 | -12 | -0.22% | 212,995 | -74573 | 431,349 | -7657 | | SR05 | | 5,454 | -10 | -0.18% | 12,335 | -9493 | 64,361 | 388 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 9 月 25 日 公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽苹果白糖研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 棉禽研究：王玺圳 期货从业证号： F03118729 投资咨询证号：Z0022817 油脂研究：张盼盼 期货从业证号： F03119783 投资咨询证号：Z0022908 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 【外盘情况】 CBOT 大豆指数下跌 0.7%至 1028.5 美分/蒲，CBOT 豆粕指数下跌 0.74%至 280.6 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.USDA 出口销售前瞻：截至 2025 年 9 月 18 日当周，预计美国 2025/26 市场 年度大豆出口净销售为 60-160 万吨；预计美国 2024/25 市场年度豆粕出口净销售 介于 0-5 万吨，2025/26 市场年度豆粕出口净销售为 15-40 万吨。 2.油世界：欧盟将 EUDR ...

期货从业证号： 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 09 月 25 日 研究员：刘倩楠 F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 成 | | | | | | 成 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.50 | 109.43 | 0.07 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 3.95 | 3. તેર | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.00 | 6.91 | 0.09 | | 期货价格 | | | | ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 09 月 25 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3372 | 3354 | 18 | 01-05 | -17 | -38 | 21 | | JD05 | 3389 | 3392 | -3 | 05-09 | 169 | 142 | 27 | | JD09 | 3220 | 3250 | -30 | 09-01 | -152 | -104 | -48 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.58 | 1.57 | 0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.14 | 1.14 | -0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1. ...