| 2025 | | --- | | 信 11 | | 71 | | 뷰 31 | | 11 11 | 铜 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 232 关税豁免精炼铜 铜价或震荡下行 第一部分 铜市场综述 7 月 30 日，特朗普宣布 8 月 1 日起对进口半成品铜等产品 征收 50%关税，但该措施不含铜矿石、阴极铜等，美铜暴跌 18%。 comex 与 lme 价差迅速收敛到 2%-3%，之前美国抢进口的铜甚 至可能会重新出口，若后期美铜重新出口，lme 累库速度或加快， 阶段性供应过剩的局面加剧，铜价面临一定的回调压力。 | | | | 232 | 关税豁免精炼铜 铜价或震荡下行 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | 铜市场综述 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、 | 行情回顾 4 | | | 二、 | 行情展望 4 | | | 第三部分 | 铜矿扰动增加，供应紧张的情况难以缓解 | 7 | | 一、 | 铜精矿供应增速不及预期 7 | | | 二、 | 全球废铜供应错配，国内废铜供应紧张 | 9 | | 三、 | 全球精铜产量情况 10 ...

| 第一部分 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 【氧化铝概要】 | 2 | | 【电解铝概要】 | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 | 政策预期扩大价格波动 关注氧化铝基本面矛盾转变 3 | | 第三部分 | 基本面逻辑对价格影响权重预计加大 关注 8 月库存拐点 11 | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 24 | | | 免责声明 28 | 有色板块研发报告 铝及氧化铝 8 月月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 投机情绪降温 铝及氧化铝关注基本面拐点 第一部分 前言概要 【氧化铝概要】 若新一轮《十大重点行业稳增长工作方案》发布后，未直接对氧化铝在产产能或新增产能 存较强影响，则氧化铝行业在产能利用率提高、利润带动产能复产后或进口窗口打开带动实质 性进口增量带动仓单显著增加等供需过剩压力下、价格存回落压力，节奏上关注仓单增量变化， 目前初步预计站台库存 7 月累库的 12 万吨或部分体现为仓单增量。但如果下半年国内氧化铝 新投不及预期，氧化铝实际过剩规模不会非常显著，则高成本产能完全成本区间（3000-3100 元）或是氧化铝价格的理论支撑位。 若新一轮《十大 ...

| 2 | | --- | | 2 | | 2 | | 2 | | 3 | | 3 | | 5 | | 7 | | 10 | | 11 | 有色板块研发报告 工业硅 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 银河期货 第 2 页 共 14 页 第 3 页 共 14 页 有色板块研发报告 工业硅 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 有色板块研发报告 工业硅 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 | | 日期 | 7月29日 | 7月28日 | 7月25日 | 7月24日 | | 7月23日 较上周末 较上月末 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主流牌号 现货价格（元/ | 华东通氧553现货价格 | 9800 | 9950 | 10100 | 10100 | 10000 | -2.97% | 15.98% | | | 昆明通氧553现货价格 | 9800 | 9900 | 10000 | 10000 | 10000 | -2.00% | 15.29% | | | 天津通氧553现货价格 | 9650 | 9 ...

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | --- | --- | | | 2 | | | 2 | | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 3 | | | 4 | | | 7 | | | 8 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 9 | 有色板块研发报告 多晶硅 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 预期、现实、仓单再定价，区间震荡 第一部分 前言概要 银河期货 第 2 页 共 11 页 第 3 页 共 11 有色板块研发报告 多晶硅 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 第二部分 基本面情况 图 1：多晶硅期货主力合约价格走势 数据来源：银河期货，文华财经 页 有色板块研发报告 多晶硅 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 | 日期 | | 7月30日 | 7月29日 | 7月28日 | 7月25日 | 7月24日 | 较上周末 | 较上月末 | 7月25日 | 6月30日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多晶硅现货价格(元/kq) | N型致客科-本科价 | 4 ...

大宗商品研究所 能化研发报告 玻璃期货日报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 F03108920 投资咨询证号： Z0018403 联系方式： :lixuanyi_qh@chinasto ck.com.cn 1 / 6 玻璃期货日报 第一部分 基础数据 | 现货市场（元/吨） | 2025/7/31 | 2025/7/30 | 上周 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沙河长城 | 1241 | 1258 | 1258 | -17 | -17 | | 沙河安全 | 1293 | 1297 | 1241 | -4 | 51 | | 沙河德金 | 1241 | 1250 | 1241 | -9 | 0 | | 沙河大板 | 1267 | 1275 | 1245 | -9 | 21 | | 湖北大板 | 1230 | 1230 | 1150 | 0 | 80 | | 浙江大板 | 1320 | 1320 | 1280 | 0 | 40 | | 华南大板 | 1320 | 1320 | 1290 | 0 | 30 | | 东北大板 | 1170 | ...

大宗商品研究所 能化研发报告 纯碱期货日报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 纯碱期货日报 第一部分 基础数据 | 现货市场（元/吨） | 2025/7/31 | 2025/7/30 | 上周 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 华中重质（送到） | 1350 | 1350 | 1250 | 0 | 100 | | 华东重质（送到） | 1350 | 1350 | 1250 | 0 | 100 | | 沙河重质（送到） | 1240 | 1300 | 1320 | -60 | -80 | | 西北重质（出厂） | 1080 | 1080 | 1000 | 0 | 80 | | 华中轻质（出厂） | 1250 | 1250 | 1140 | 0 | 110 | | 华东轻质（出厂） | 1250 | 1250 | 1100 | 0 | 150 | | 华北轻质（出厂） | 1250 | 1250 | 1150 | 0 | 100 | | 西北轻质（出厂） | 1080 | 1080 | 1000 | 0 | 80 | | 轻重价差（平均） | ...

| 第一部分 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | 二、苹果库存较低 | 3 | | 三、新季苹果预期 | 5 | | 四、苹果需求处于淡季 | 6 | | 五、进出口情况 | 8 | | 六、替代品情况 | 9 | | 第三部分 后市展望及策略推荐 | 9 | | | 免责声明 11 | 农产品板块研发报告 苹果 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 早熟苹果陆续上市 或将支撑富士价格 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 苹果期货 10 月合约价格重心震荡向上，10 月合约价格重心从之前 7600-7700 元/吨附近上涨至目前的 7800-8000 元/吨附近，一方面冷库苹 果库存低对价格有支撑；另一方面随着新季早熟苹果陆续上市，早熟苹果价 格较高，较高的早熟苹果价格预计将对晚熟富士价格有一定的支撑，因此苹 果价格重心略有上涨。 【市场展望】 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：刘倩楠 电 话：010-6856 ...

第一部分 前言概要 双焦 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 双焦：短期博弈加大 中期跟踪查超产实际影响 黑色板块研发报告 - 银河期货 第 1 页 共 21 页 - 图 1：焦煤主力合约走势 图 2：焦炭主力合约走势 黑色板块研发报告 双焦 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 第二部分 基本面情况 7 第 2 页 共 21 页 黑色板块研发报告 双焦 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 图 3：炼焦煤价格指数 单位：元/吨 图 4：中硫主焦煤价格 单位：元/吨 800 1300 1800 2300 2800 3300 3800 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 中硫主焦煤：价格指数：中国（日） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 图 6 ：蒙 5 原煤-甘其毛都 单位：元/吨 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 蒙5精煤 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 ...

Report Title - Black Sector R & D Report: Iron Ore Monthly Report for August 2025 (dated July 31, 2025) [1][7] Core Viewpoint - The market game intensifies, and iron ore prices remain at a high level [1] Summary by Section 1. Iron Ore Market Data Review - Multiple charts show historical price trends of iron ore, including 62% Platts iron ore price, PB powder price, price spreads between different ore types, and basis and spreads of futures contracts [9][15][17] 2. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis Supply Side - Import quantity charts show the historical import volumes of iron ore from different regions such as Australia, Brazil, and India, as well as the global shipping volume of iron ore [30][31][36] - A table presents the supply - side data of major iron ore producers from 2020 to 2026E, including RIO, BHP, FMG, etc., along with their year - on - year changes in 2025 and 2026 [57] - Charts display the global shipping volumes of iron ore from different sources like non - Australia and Brazil, non - top four mines, and domestic refined powder production and inventory [62][69][74] Demand Side - Charts show relevant data reflecting iron ore demand, such as real estate new construction area, infrastructure investment growth rate, domestic manufacturing inventory cycle, and iron ore consumption in the steel industry (including domestic and overseas) [85][95][100] - Inventory - related charts show the inventory status of imported iron ore at ports, in trade, and the total inventory of the entire iron - element industrial chain [110][112] 3. Iron Ore Market Outlook - No specific content in the provided text for this part, but the section is named "Iron Ore Market Outlook" [116]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, lacking price drivers on its own and mainly following the news. The coking coal and coke market has intense trading, and the iron ore market is expected to operate at a high level. The ferroalloy market is expected to be in a high - level shock state [4][10][16] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Related Information - On July 30, mainstream coking enterprises in Hebei and Shanxi planned to raise coke prices, with increases of 50 yuan/ton for tamping wet - quenched coke, 55 yuan/ton for tamping dry - quenched coke, and 75 yuan/ton for top - charged dry - quenched coke, effective from 0:00 on July 31. The average iron - making cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 2097 yuan/ton for hot metal (ex - tax) and 2843 yuan/ton for billets (tax - included), a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. Compared with the billet ex - factory price of 3180 yuan/ton on July 30, the average profit per ton for steel mills was 337 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Spot prices of steel products in Shanghai and Beijing showed increases [3] Logical Analysis - The black - metal sector showed a weak and volatile trend in the night session yesterday. Construction steel sales on the 30th were 82,000 tons. This week, building materials production decreased while hot - rolled coil production increased. Rebar inventories decreased while hot - rolled coil inventories increased. Steel apparent demand decreased month - on - month. Although steel exports remained high recently, July is the off - season for manufacturing demand, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils declined. With the market reaching its peak, the speculative demand for building materials also decreased. The steel fundamentals have not reached their peak, lacking price drivers on their own. In the short term, it still follows the news, and market volatility has increased. After the Politburo meeting, there were no more - than - expected policies, and the market was in a fierce long - short game. Steel prices are expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see as steel prices maintain a high - level volatile trend [5] - Arbitrage: It is advisable to enter long - position arbitrage when the basis is low [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Coking Coal and Coke Related Information - With the rebound of the futures market, some term - arbitrage demands entered the market again. Affected by heavy rain in the north, railway transportation capacity was severely restricted, and the arrival of materials at some steel mills was difficult. Coking enterprises raised prices for the fifth time, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, which took effect on the 31st. The average iron - making cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 2097 yuan/ton for hot metal (ex - tax) and 2843 yuan/ton for billets (tax - included), a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. Compared with the billet ex - factory price of 3180 yuan/ton on July 30, the average profit per ton for steel mills was 337 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Coke and coking - coal warehouse - receipt prices were provided [9] Logical Analysis - The current market trading is intense, and there is no clear main - line logic, with large market fluctuations. On the fundamental side, the inspection of over - production has not significantly affected coal - mine production but has affected the resumption progress to some extent. The number of Mongolian - coal customs - clearance vehicles has returned to a medium - high level, and port inventories have stopped falling and stabilized. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the inventory locked in the futures - spot market and the speculative inventory in the spot market show signs of being sold, as well as the progress and intensity of coal - mine over - production inspections. The market is expected to be in a fierce trading state at the current level, with large price fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see due to intense trading and large market fluctuations [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Futures - spot: It is recommended to wait and see [13] Iron Ore Related Information - The Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to study the formulation of the 15th Five - Year Plan. The meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, promoting market competition order, and regulating over - competition. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged. Spot prices of iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased, and the basis of the 09 iron - ore main contract was 24 [14] Logical Analysis - Iron - ore prices fluctuated narrowly in the night session. On the supply side, the shipments of mainstream mines entered the seasonal off - season, and it was difficult to see a significant increase. Recently, the shipments of non - mainstream mines were at a high level, but the overall impact on supply pressure was not large. On the demand side, the hot - metal production last week remained at a high level. Although the growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry slowed down, it was expected to maintain its resilience. Overall, the previous increase in iron - ore prices was affected by multiple factors. The current valuation has returned to a reasonable level, and the market sentiment has fluctuated. Iron - ore prices are expected to operate at a high level [15][16] Trading Strategies - Not clearly stated other than the note that the views are for reference only [17] Ferroalloy Related Information - Comilog's September 2025 manganese - ore shipment price to China for Gabon lumps was 4.27 US dollars/ton - degree, an increase of 0.07 US dollars/ton - degree. The Politburo meeting emphasized deepening reforms, promoting market competition order, and regulating over - competition [18] Logical Analysis - On the 30th, the spot price of ferrosilicon was stable with a slight upward trend, and the price in some regions increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton. On the supply side, production increased steadily as prices rose. On the demand side, steel mills' profits were good, and production remained at a high level, which supported the demand for ferrosilicon. After the release of the Politburo meeting communiqué, the anti - involution trading sentiment cooled down, and the market was expected to fluctuate at a high level. The spot price of manganese - silicon and manganese ore was stable with a slight upward trend on the 30th. On the supply side, production also increased slightly. On the demand side, steel mills' profits were good, which supported raw - material demand. On the cost side, overseas mines continued to slightly increase their quotes, which boosted the price of manganese - silicon. The anti - involution trading sentiment cooled down, and the market was expected to fluctuate at a high level [19] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The market is expected to operate at a high level, and it is recommended that the anti - involution trading sentiment cool down, with the market expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [20][22] - Arbitrage: Close the long - ferrosilicon and short - manganese - silicon position and enter long - position futures - spot arbitrage when the basis is low [22] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [22]