1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report indicates that although raw material costs support nickel prices, macro - factors still exert pressure on them. In the short - term, if the supply disruptions in April are realized and consumption turns seasonally strong, the supply - demand relationship may tighten marginally. If there are signs of inventory reduction, especially overseas, it will support nickel prices. The recommended strategies are to buy on dips after stabilization, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [2][112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface and Summary - **Market Review**: In March 2026, due to the Fed's hawkish monetary policy and the tense situation in the Middle East, the risk appetite of funds declined significantly, causing the non - ferrous metal sector to fall. After Trump's remarks eased the situation, the market risk appetite rebounded, but nickel prices still failed to return to the beginning - of - month high. From the beginning to the end of the month, the position of the Shanghai Nickel Index decreased by nearly 10%. Due to the lack of capital promotion, the nickel price rebound was weaker than expected despite the narrowing supply - demand gap and strong cost support [3][10]. - **Market Outlook**: The macro environment is still uncertain, and asset prices may fluctuate significantly. In the industrial aspect, terminal demand has entered the peak season, stainless steel production has increased month - on - month, and the demand for ternary batteries is stable. Supply disruptions are concentrated in Indonesian nickel mines and MHP. Currently, due to factors such as nickel mine quotas, export taxes, and sulfur transportation in the Middle East, the prices of nickel mines and MHP remain high. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed in April, the sulfur supply shortage will gradually intensify, ultimately affecting the supply of MHP, electrowon nickel, and nickel sulfate. If the inventory reduction amplitude increases, it will support prices and raise the price center [4][11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: 1. Unilateral: Buy on dips after stabilization. 2. Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. 3. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6][120]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Review - In March 2026, the non - ferrous metal sector was affected by the Fed's policy and the Middle East situation, with nickel prices first falling and then rebounding but not reaching the initial high. The position of the Shanghai Nickel Index decreased by nearly 10%. On the supply side, Indonesian nickel mines were in short supply due to Ramadan and other factors, and the MHP price soared. On the demand side, domestic stainless steel production increased, inventory decreased, and the demand for new - energy ternary materials was stable [10]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Situation - **Global Visible Inventory**: As of March 27, 2026, the global visible inventory was 373,000 tons. LME inventory decreased by 6,402 tons compared with the end of last month, while SMM's six - region social inventory increased by 13,270 tons. The overall visible inventory increased by 6,368 tons compared with the end of last month, lower than expected, indicating that the surplus has shifted back to China and the overseas nickel plate supply is tight [16]. - **Stainless Steel Raw Material Cost Support and March Resumption of Production**: - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices**: Affected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the supply of Philippine nickel mines in April is expected to decrease. The first - round benchmark price of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore in April decreased slightly month - on - month, but the overall trend is strong. The NPI price has risen, but ferronickel plants are still in a loss, and production has declined. Chromium - based raw material prices have also increased, pushing up the cost of stainless steel [30][41]. - **Steel Mill Cost Inversion and Production Reduction Pressure**: It is expected that the production of stainless steel crude steel in China and India will increase significantly in March. In the first two months of 2026, stainless steel imports and exports decreased year - on - year. As of March 27, 2026, the social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 14,000 tons compared with the previous month, with the 200 - series and 400 - series accumulating inventory and the 300 - series reducing inventory [46]. - **Weak Peak Season Demand and Downstream Fear of High Prices**: In March, the global macro - environment was turbulent. The Fed's decision to maintain interest rates and the tense Middle East situation have put pressure on the commodity market. The real - estate data showed a slight recovery in March, and the production schedule of white goods in April improved year - on - year [65][81]. - **Ternary Demand Supports the High - Level Operation of Nickel Sulfate Price**: - **Stable Nickel Sulfate Price**: From January to February 2026, the cumulative production of Indonesian MHP increased by 12% year - on - year, and the production of high - grade nickel matte increased by 87% year - on - year. Due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the cost of hydrometallurgy has increased. Although there is currently no reduction in production due to sulfur shortage, the long - term impact still needs attention [82]. - **Underwhelming New - Energy Vehicle Market Sales**: - **Domestic Market**: From January to February 2026, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased by 52% year - on - year, but the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles decreased. The power cell production increased by 33% year - on - year in the first two months, mainly due to the significant increase in the battery capacity per vehicle. The new - energy heavy - truck market is booming, and the export of lithium - ion batteries has increased [96][99]. - **Overseas Market**: In January 2026, the global new - energy vehicle sales decreased year - on - year, with different trends in different regions. China's new - energy vehicle exports increased significantly year - on - year. The European market has the best performance among the three major mainstream markets, and the new - energy vehicle market in some developing countries is growing rapidly [104][105]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Future Outlook**: The duration of the Middle East conflict and macro - sentiment are the main uncertainties, which have a systematic impact on the non - ferrous metal sector and commodities. On the industrial side, the supply - side disruptions are expected to be strong, and the cost support is solid. If the supply disruptions are realized after April and consumption turns seasonally strong, the supply - demand relationship may tighten marginally. If there are signs of inventory reduction, especially overseas, it will support nickel prices [112]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: 1. Unilateral: Buy on dips after stabilization. 2. Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. 3. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [120].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the lithium carbonate market was in a tight balance. Prices initially rose driven by funds but faced setbacks due to the Middle - East war and other factors. Later, prices rebounded as supply - side crises emerged and funds returned. In April, domestic production is expected to increase, imports may decrease, and demand will have some resilience, maintaining a tight balance with a low inventory - to - sales ratio, which supports prices. The focus has shifted to lithium ore supply, and the policy of Zimbabwe needs close attention. Macroscopically, due to the Middle - East situation, energy substitution logic has replaced the AI theme, and funds are flowing back to the lithium carbonate market [4][5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - After the Spring Festival, lithium carbonate prices were driven by funds to approach previous highs but failed due to the Middle - East war, weakening macro - sentiment, and looser supply - demand. On March 3rd, the non - ferrous sector declined, and lithium prices hit the daily limit down. Then prices continued to weaken until reaching 140,000 yuan/ton, where downstream purchases provided support. In the late month, supply - side issues led to a 10% increase in positions in 3 trading days and a rapid price rebound [4][9]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - In March, the supply - demand was in a tight balance. Inventory data showed a slowdown in destocking and a shift to inventory accumulation in the last week. High prices stimulated lithium salt plants to resume production, and there were a large number of imports. Downstream buyers had about one - month's worth of raw material inventory at the end of the month. In April, domestic production will continue to increase, imports may decline, demand will have some growth, and the supply - demand will remain in a tight balance with a low inventory - to - sales ratio. The focus is on lithium ore supply, and the policy of Zimbabwe needs to be closely monitored. Macroscopically, due to the Middle - East situation, funds are flowing back to the lithium carbonate market, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [5][9]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Review - The content is similar to the market review in the first part, including price fluctuations, supply - demand balance, and inventory changes in March, as well as the outlook for April [9]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Situation 3.3.1 Battery Orders are Full, and the Inventory - to - Sales Ratio Remains Low - **New Energy Vehicle Sales and Battery Resilience**: From January to February, new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 52% year - on - year, but retail sales of new energy passenger cars decreased. In March, wholesale and retail sales of new energy vehicles still showed a year - on - year decline. However, power cell production increased by 33% year - on - year from January to February, mainly due to the increase in single - vehicle battery capacity. The increase in single - vehicle battery capacity is due to the higher proportion of mid - to - high - end models and the growth of new energy heavy - truck sales. Additionally, the export of lithium batteries also provides demand resilience [13][14]. - **Energy Storage Orders are Full**: In February 2026, the newly commissioned installed capacity of new - type energy storage projects increased significantly year - on - year. The output of energy storage cells from January to February increased by 93% year - on - year. Energy storage orders are full, and the production capacity of lithium batteries will be put into operation after April, with demand remaining stable and positive [26]. - **Battery Production Scheduling**: In March, the production scheduling of batteries, cells, cathodes, and electrolytes all increased. It is expected that in April, battery production scheduling will increase by 3 - 4% and cathode production by 1.1% [29][30][31][32][33]. 3.3.2 High Prices Stimulate Supply Increase, but Resource - Country Policies Add Disturbances - **Concerns about Zimbabwe's Export Resumption**: High prices stimulate new production, resumption, and capacity expansion. However, overseas mine production increases are mainly expected in the second half of the year. Zimbabwe stopped exporting raw ore and lithium concentrate on February 25th. If the export ban continues, it will have a significant impact on China's lithium ore supply. Although there are rumors of a possible export resumption in late March, the specific plan is unclear. The impact on lithium salt production will be relatively limited if exports resume in April, but supply concerns will intensify if the ban continues. Additionally, the increase in lithium ore imports from Nigeria can buffer the impact [44][45]. - **Tight Lithium Ore Expectations and Decreasing Smelter Processing Fees**: In January, there were many lithium concentrate arrivals at ports, and smelter inventories were sufficient. Recently, lithium ore has been relatively loose, processing fees have increased slightly, and smelter profits have recovered. SMM expects production scheduling to reach new highs in March and April. Currently, lithium salt plant inventories are low, and smelters are competing for lithium ore. Lithium ore inventory has slightly decreased, and processing fees have been adjusted downward. It is expected that supply elasticity will increase with capacity release, especially in the second half of the year. China's lithium carbonate imports increased by 65% year - on - year from January to February, and imports are expected to increase in March and return to normal after April [48][53][59]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Macro - aspect**: The Middle - East situation remains stalemate, with oil prices above $100. Energy substitution logic has replaced the AI theme. Funds are flowing back to the lithium carbonate market, but excessive optimism may lead to strong regulation and high volatility. It is recommended to operate with a light position [73]. - **Industry - aspect**: In April, supply is expected to increase, demand may be limited by vehicle sales but remains stable and positive. Supply - demand is slightly looser than in March, with a possible continuation of inventory accumulation but in a tight - balance state. The inventory - to - sales ratio of lithium carbonate is still low, supporting prices. The policy of Zimbabwe needs to be closely monitored [73]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: - **Unilateral**: Adopt a low - buying strategy as the market is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [73]. - **Options**: Use a protective strategy [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical conflicts have disturbed the macro - mainline, putting pressure on gold and silver [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Second Part: Market Review and Prospect - The report presents the disk trends of London gold, London silver, Shanghai gold, and Shanghai silver, with their units being US dollars per ounce, US dollars per ounce, yuan per gram, and yuan per kilogram respectively [12][14] 3.2 Third Part: Macroeconomic Factors - It shows the Turkish central bank's announcement and the US dollar/Turkish lira trend, along with data on official reserve assets in millions of US dollars [21] - The FedWatch data before and after the war (February 27th and March 27th, 2026) are presented, including the conditional meeting probabilities of different interest - rate ranges in various Fed meetings from 2026 to 2027 [26][27] - Information on the average number of new non - farm and ADP employment in the US in March, as well as the structure of new non - farm employment, is provided [31] - The report also shows the US CPI and PPI data [32] 3.3 Fourth Part: Fundamental Factors - Gold supply - demand balance data from 2014 to 2025 are presented, including supply components such as total supply, recycling, and industrial use, and demand components such as jewelry, investment, and central bank purchases. There are also data on the year - on - year changes in 2024 and 2025 [39] - The flow changes of gold ETFs in different regions and the global gold ETF holdings are shown [40] - The inventory data of silver in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London LBMA market, and US Comex market are presented, along with the total inventory of four exchanges and the domestic silver premium/discount (against silver T + D) [47][50][51] - The export and import situations of silver in China are shown, including the export and import volumes of unforged silver with a purity of ≥99.99% from 2023 to 2026 [54][56] - The total global silver ETF holdings, the holdings of leading silver ETFs, and the silver lease rate are presented [59][60]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation between the US and Iran, which has a wide - ranging impact on various industries such as energy, metals, and shipping. - Different industries show different trends. Some industries are supported by cost and supply - demand factors, while others are restricted by high inventory or weak demand. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index shows a low - opening and high - walking pattern, with sector rotation and overall volatility. The market has low - level buying power but lacks the impetus for further upward movement. It is recommended to use grid operations for unilateral trading, conduct IM\IC 2609 long + ETF short arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: At the end of the quarter, the central bank injects liquidity, and the bond market sentiment is positive. However, the short - end may face adjustment pressure after the quarter. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading, hold short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread (TL - 3T) in moderation, and try to short the 30Y new - old bond spread (TL - 30Y active bond) [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The market has limited changes, and the price fluctuates. The US soybean market lacks bullish support, and it is recommended to be cautious in the short term. For trading, it is suggested to be bearish on the short - term for the unilateral strategy, narrow the MRM09 spread for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [26][27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is slightly adjusted, but the general trend is still strong. The domestic sugar price is expected to follow slightly. It is recommended to go long at low prices and go short at high prices for the unilateral strategy, long ICE sugar and short Zhengzhou sugar for the arbitrage strategy, and sell put options for the option strategy [28][31][32]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Indonesia's implementation of B50 policy drives the oil market up. The oil market is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to hold a high - level shock view for the unilateral strategy and stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price falls, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to have a bullish view on the callback of CBOT corn 05 contract for the unilateral strategy, narrow the 07 corn - starch spread for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [36][39]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure eases, but the overall price still has pressure. It is recommended to be bearish on the 07 contract for the unilateral strategy, conduct LH79 reverse arbitrage for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates narrowly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and sell pk605 - P - 7700 options [42][43]. - **Eggs**: The spot price stabilizes, and the number of culled hens increases. It is recommended to short the 6 - month contract for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [45][46]. - **Apples**: The demand is good, and the price is strong. It is expected that the 5 - month contract will fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [47][48]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: Supported by bullish factors, the price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and buy call options [50][52][53]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Overseas sentiment affects the futures price, and there is no obvious trend. It is recommended to maintain a shock view for the unilateral strategy, hold the long hc05 - 10 spread for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [55][56]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The impact of geopolitical disturbances weakens, and it is necessary to focus on the actual changes in the fundamentals. It is recommended to conduct band trading for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [57][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances still exist, and the price is at a high level. It is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for the spot for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [60][62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: Driven by demand and cost, the price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to have a bullish view on the shock for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and sell out - of - the - money put options [64][65]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The situation between the US and Iran is tense, and the price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance of the 10 - day moving average and the impact of sudden war news for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [67][68][69]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The dovish statement of the Fed supports market confidence, and the price stops falling and fluctuates. It is recommended that investors with high risk tolerance can cautiously go long on platinum for the unilateral strategy, conduct long platinum and short palladium arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [72][73][74]. - **Copper**: It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran situation. The price fluctuates weakly at a low level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [76][77]. - **Alumina**: It is necessary to pay attention to the mining policy in Guinea and the situation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The price fluctuates mainly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [78][80]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The start - up situation of aluminum plants in the Middle - East after being attacked is uncertain. The price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [82][83]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and the price fluctuates widely with the aluminum price. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [85][86]. - **Zinc**: It is necessary to pay attention to the macro and capital sentiment. The price may fluctuate strongly in the range. It is recommended to hold long positions and raise the stop - loss line for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [87][88]. - **Lead**: The price fluctuates at a low level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [90][91]. - **Nickel**: The macro uncertainty is high. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [94][96]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, it follows the nickel price. The price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [98][99]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is recommended to take short positions. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [101]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand is weak, and it is recommended to take a bearish view. It is recommended to take short positions for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [102]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply disturbance supports the price at a high level. It is recommended to have a bullish view. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [105]. - **Tin**: The Middle - East war expands, and the price fluctuates strongly in a narrow range. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [107][109]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: Iran plans to establish a strait toll system, and the SCFIS index rises. It is recommended that the near - month contract EC2604 fluctuates mainly, and the far - month contract may rise due to the Middle - East geopolitical situation. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy [110][111][112]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The Middle - East geopolitical conflict continues. If Iran's toll policy is implemented, it will increase the operating cost of dry bulk ships. It is necessary to pay attention to the shutdown duration of some bauxite mines in Western Australia [114][115]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The Chinese carbon market is in the off - season, and the EU carbon market is about to be reformed. The Chinese carbon price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the EU carbon price is expected to show a shock - strengthening trend [117][118][119]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The WTI crude oil price closes above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. It is recommended to be bullish at a high level for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [122][123]. - **Asphalt**: The cost rises and the supply shrinks, with strong bottom support. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BU2606 contract for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [124][125][126]. - **Fuel Oil**: Supported by the geopolitical conflict, it remains strong. It is recommended to be bullish at a high level for the unilateral strategy, pay attention to the low - sulfur production reduction and high - sulfur peak - season demand start rhythm for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [128][129]. - **LPG**: The CP is expected to rise. The price fluctuates strongly at a high level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [130]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to hold long positions in the TTF contract for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and sell deep out - of - the - money put options for the option strategy [133][134][135]. - **PX & PTA**: Affected by raw materials, future PTA devices may change. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [137][138][139]. - **BZ & EB**: The refinery's load reduction affects the pure benzene supply, and the benzene import volume decreases year - on - year. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [140][141]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas shutdowns increase, and the supply tightens. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [143][144][145]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing margin fluctuates within a range. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [146][148]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory is continuously reduced. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [149][150]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline, and the export expectation increases. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [152][153]. - **Plastic PP**: The import and external purchase are at a loss. It is recommended to take small long positions in the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [154][156]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price weakens. It is recommended to have a bearish view on the shock for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [157][159]. - **PVC**: The price fluctuates mainly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the unilateral, arbitrage, and option strategies [160][161]. - **Soda Ash**: The price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to short at a high level for the unilateral strategy, conduct long glass and short soda ash 09 contract arbitrage, and sell call options [163][164]. - **Glass**: The price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to short at a high level for the unilateral strategy, conduct long glass and short soda ash 09 contract arbitrage, and sell call options [165][166]. - **Methanol**: The price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to have a bullish view on the shock for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [167]. - **Urea**: The price fluctuates mainly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [170]. - **Pulp**: The high inventory suppresses the pulp price. It is recommended to conduct range operations for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and sell SP2605 - P - 5100 options [175][176][177]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the paper price rebounds weakly. It is recommended to short at a high level for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and sell OP2606 - C - 4200 options [178][180][181]. - **Logs**: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long at low prices for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [182][185]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The commercial housing sales area decreases. It is recommended to hold long positions in the RU05 and NR05 contracts and short positions in the RU 09 contract for the unilateral strategy, hold the NR2605 - RU2605 spread for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [186][188][189]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The butadiene gross profit reaches a new high. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the support at the recent low of 17520 points for the unilateral strategy, pay attention to the support at the recent low of +840 points for the BR2505 - RU2505 spread for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [192][194].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2026, the asphalt price turned from weak to strong. At the beginning of March, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp rise in oil prices, the asphalt market was just slowly recovering from the Spring Festival holiday, with weak downstream demand. The increase in asphalt prices was less than that of oil prices, and the asphalt crack spread dropped to a historically low level. From mid - to late March, refineries in the Yangtze River Delta, South China, and Shandong reduced production and supply, leading to inventory reduction and a strong rise in asphalt prices [4][11][34]. - The ongoing Middle East conflict increases oil price volatility and raw material concerns. In April, asphalt production is expected to further contract, providing strong support for the bottom of the asphalt price. Currently, downstream demand is weak, and the recovery is slow. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the temperature warms up [5][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In early March, the asphalt market was in the off - season, and the increase in asphalt prices was less than that of oil prices, with the asphalt crack spread dropping to a historically low level. From mid - to late March, refineries in different regions reduced production, supply contracted, and inventory decreased, supporting the strong rise in asphalt prices [4][11][34]. 3.2 Supply Overview - From January to April 2026, China's asphalt production is expected to be about 7.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25 million tons (-15%). In April 2026, China's asphalt production is expected to be 1.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 980,000 tons (-44%). The planned asphalt production of local refineries in April is about 740,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 170,000 tons (-19%) and a year - on - year decrease of 310,000 tons (-30%) [15]. - In 2025, China's total asphalt production was 28.468 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.992 million tons (+12%). In 2025, China's total asphalt imports were 3.928 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 465,000 tons (+13.4%) [16][18]. 3.3 Demand Overview - In March 2026, domestic asphalt demand was weak, with obvious north - south differentiation. The overall demand did not reach the seasonal expectation, and the market trading atmosphere was cold. As of March 20, the operating rate of road modified asphalt was 10%, about 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the operating rate of waterproofing membranes was 36%, about 4 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The refinery's shipment volume was at a low level, with a week - on - week decrease of 37,000 tons (-9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 200,000 tons (-35%) on March 20 [28]. 3.4 Inventory and Valuation - In March 2026, the domestic asphalt inventory showed a structural differentiation of a first - decreasing and then - increasing refinery inventory and a continuously high social inventory. The overall supply - demand pattern was tight. The asphalt crack spread dropped to a historically low level, and the basis fluctuated sharply but showed an overall upward trend [32][33][34]. 3.5 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The ongoing Middle East conflict increases oil price volatility and raw material concerns. In April, asphalt production is expected to further contract, providing strong support for the bottom of the asphalt price. Currently, downstream demand is weak, and the recovery is slow. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the temperature warms up. - Strategy recommendations: 1. For single - side trading, hold long positions in BU2606 and pay attention to geopolitical risks. 2. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. 3. For options, take a wait - and - see approach [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - After the outbreak of the US-Iran war, external uncertainties have increased. The impact of energy supply contraction on domestic industrial production and external demand may gradually emerge, challenging the recovery narrative of domestic "re - inflation" driven by strong external demand. The supply of government bonds from the "Two Sessions" not exceeding expectations and the decline in the profit - making effect of the equity market are relatively favorable for the bond market. [3][104] - In the short term, the probability of the central bank increasing "loose - money" policies is low, and the market capital price is difficult to decline further. The long - end of the bond market may have more opportunities, while the short - end may face adjustment pressure after the quarter - end if the capital market remains stable. [3][106] Summary by Directory Market Review - In March, the bond market was volatile. With the market capital price running at a low level, the performance of the short - and medium - term bonds was better than that of the long - term bonds. Compared with spot bonds, the valuation of the bond futures market was mostly low in the second half of March. As of March 30, the monthly increases of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL were +0.09%, +0.10%, +0.00%, and - 0.46% respectively; the IRRs of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL were approximately 1.0708%, 1.0955%, 1.1937%, and 0.9081% respectively. [2] Market Logic 1. External Demand Supports the Fundamentals, and Geopolitical Tensions Increase Uncertainties - In January - February, China's economic data was better than expected, with a significant year - on - year increase in foreign trade. The total import and export amount increased by 21.0% year - on - year, with imports up 19.8% and exports up 21.8%, and the trade surplus reached $213.618 billion. High - value - added products such as integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships had a large increase in exports, and some labor - intensive products also rebounded. [7] - Supported by external demand, the added value of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 6.3% year - on - year in January - February, and the added value of high - tech manufacturing increased by 13.1% year - on - year. The service industry production index increased by 5.2% year - on - year. [7] - In terms of domestic demand, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year in January - February, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment increasing by 3.1% and 11.4% respectively. The decline in real estate development investment narrowed to - 11.1%. Social consumer goods retail sales increased by 2.8% year - on - year, with catering revenue increasing by 4.8% year - on - year. [8] - After the US - Iran war, although the Middle East energy supply disruption had a certain negative impact on domestic industrial production, it was generally controllable. Leading indicators showed that external demand remained resilient, but the growth rate of port cargo and container throughput in March decreased compared with January - February, indicating that the support of external demand may weaken marginally. [14][25] - In terms of domestic demand, the real estate market in March was okay, but the year - on - year sales volume was similar to last year, and the second - hand housing price index continued to decline. The year - on - year decline in passenger car sales narrowed but remained negative. [32] 2. Price Indicators Continue to Rise, and Concerns about Imported Inflation Intensify - In February, domestic inflation data exceeded expectations. CPI and core CPI increased by 1.3% and 1.8% year - on - year respectively, and PPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month. The rise in precious metal prices and the recovery of residents' travel willingness contributed to the increase in core CPI, and the high - tech industry's prosperity drove up the PPI. [38] - With the increase in geopolitical tensions, the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have fallen, and the rise in fuel prices may have a negative impact on residents' travel. The impact of imported factors on domestic core inflation remains to be seen. [39] - If energy price increases do not lead to core inflation or even slow down core inflation, the central bank may cut policy rates, but the rate cut will be relatively restrained. If energy prices are transmitted to core inflation, it will restrict the central bank's "loose - money" policy. [48] 3. Corporate Financing Demand Increases, and Households Continue to "Shrink Their Balance Sheets" - In February, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic loan balances was 6.0%, and the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.2%. The financing demand of the corporate sector improved, with significant year - on - year increases in medium - and long - term loans and non - standard financing. The household sector continued to "shrink its balance sheet", and the credit supply in March may be average. [52] - In terms of money supply, M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year in February, and M1 increased by 5.9% year - on - year. The increase in M1 may be related to the improvement of export - oriented enterprises' operations and their strong willingness to settle foreign exchange. The increase in non - bank financial institution deposits may be due to the "deposit transfer" phenomenon during the peak period of residents' fixed - deposit maturity. [58] 4. The Capital Market is Stable and Loose, and the Probability of Policy Intensification is Low - In March, the central bank reduced the medium - and long - term liquidity supply, with a net withdrawal of 25 billion yuan. However, the capital market remained balanced and loose. The weighted average interest rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase were low and fluctuated narrowly. The issuance interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined. [67] - The current monetary policy remains supportive and moderately loose, which is friendly to the bond market, especially the short - and medium - term bonds. However, due to the possible transmission of energy prices to core inflation, the probability of the central bank increasing "loose - money" policies in the short term is low, and the downward space for capital prices is limited. [67] 5. Bond Supply Does Not Exceed Expectations, and Market Risk Appetite Fluctuates - The government bond supply announced during the "Two Sessions" was slightly lower than expected, which alleviated the market's excessive concerns about ultra - long - term bond supply. [77][78] - At the beginning of the year, the regulatory attitude towards the equity market changed, and after the geopolitical factors fermented, the upward momentum of the domestic equity market weakened. The decline in the profit - making effect of the stock market may lead to some funds flowing back to the bond market. [82] 6. Bond Futures Valuation is Low, and Long - End Spreads are High - Since mid - March, the valuation of bond futures has been mostly low, especially for the TL contract, mainly due to the cautious sentiment in the bond market caused by better - than - expected fundamental data and geopolitical uncertainties. [88] - In the spot bond market, the cautious sentiment at the long - end has widened the spread between new and old 30 - year bonds and steepened the long - end yield curve. The conditions for compressing the long - end spreads are gradually accumulating. [94][96] Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - In April, geopolitical events may still affect the trend of major asset classes. For unilateral operations, investors can consider buying T and TL contracts at low prices. For arbitrage, after partially taking profits on the short position of the 30Y - 7Y term spread (TL - 3T), it is recommended to hold an appropriate position. In addition, investors can consider long - TL and short - 30Y active bond operations. [106]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to a tight supply of aromatics, and the prices of pure benzene and styrene are expected to remain at a high level in the long - term. The risk of geopolitical conflicts has not dissipated, and the bullish logic for aromatics remains. [3][63] - The impact of the conflict on the chemical industry is gradually spreading, with Asian refineries taking preventive measures such as reducing production and declaring force majeure on some products, mainly affecting naphtha cracking units, which in turn affects the production of petroleum benzene and the downstream pure benzene - styrene industrial chain. [3][9][63] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fundamental Situation 3.1.1 Middle East Geopolitical Conflict and Raw Material Supply - On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a military strike on Iran, and Iran retaliated. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced the ban on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The US plans to send up to 10,000 ground troops to the Middle East. [8] - In March, the traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply. The global energy price has risen significantly, and Asian refineries have taken preventive measures such as reducing production and declaring force majeure. The reduction in cracking unit production directly affects the output of petroleum benzene and then spreads to the downstream pure benzene - styrene industrial chain. [9] 3.1.2 Domestic Refinery Production Reduction and Impact on Petroleum Benzene - Asian refineries have reduced production preventively, and the naphtha cracking units are significantly affected. As of the end of March, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased to 75.95% month - on - month, and some enterprises still have production reduction plans. [11] - The economic benefits of hydrogenated benzene have improved, and its operating rate has risen to 69.4%. The import volume of pure benzene in January and February 2026 decreased by about 15.1% and 19.8% year - on - year respectively. The reduction in production of Japanese and South Korean refineries will lead to a gradual decrease in pure benzene imports. [12] 3.1.3 Recovery of the Weekly Weighted Operating Load of Pure Benzene Downstream - Styrene's current load is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years, while the operating rates of aniline and adipic acid are higher than in previous years. The profitability of caprolactam has improved, and the supply has shrunk, intensifying the tight supply - demand situation. The demand side shows stable performance. [25] - The tight supply of raw materials may gradually spread downstream, and some phenol - acetone plants may reduce production. The demand in India, Thailand and other regions is still strong, and the export of aniline is expected to increase. The load of the adipic acid industry is restricted, but the downstream and terminal demand have increased, and the inventory has been significantly reduced. [25] 3.1.4 Increase in Styrene Exports and Neutral Load Level - In March, some domestic refineries carried out maintenance or reduced production. The interruption of Middle East output has led to a large number of overseas inquiries for styrene, which is beneficial for exports. In January and February 2026, the export volume of styrene was 6.06 and 5.41 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of about 1672.6% and 11.0% respectively. [37] - The port inventory shows seasonal accumulation. As of the 25th, the inventory in the main ports of East China decreased, while the inventory in the main ports of South China increased. The styrene inventory is at a neutral level compared to previous years. [37][39] - The global styrene industry is facing the dual pressures of capacity expansion and demand contraction. Many domestic and foreign styrene production plants have reduced production or shut down. Some overseas styrene plants are under maintenance, which is beneficial for exports and makes the overseas styrene supply tight. [40][43] 3.1.5 Differentiated Demand in the Styrene Industrial Chain Downstream - In early 2026, the Chinese ABS market started strongly. The cumulative export volume from January to February reached 7.03 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 76.46%. Due to geopolitical factors, some overseas ABS plants have declared force majeure, and the production in major supply areas such as South Korea and Taiwan (China) is expected to decline from March to May. [58] - The profitability of EPS and ABS has improved, while PS is still under the break - even line. Different enterprises in the downstream show differentiated performance. The acceptance of high prices by small and medium - sized downstream factories of ABS is limited, the inventory removal of PS has slowed down, and the inventory of some EPS enterprises has encountered difficulties. The inventory may increase in the future. [58] 3.2 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The risk of geopolitical conflicts has not dissipated, and the bullish logic for aromatics remains. The prices of pure benzene and styrene will remain at a high level in the long - term. [3][63] - **Strategy Recommendations**: - **Unilateral**: Before the end of the geopolitical conflict, go long, and the procurement side should stock up during periodic pullbacks. [4][65] - **Arbitrage**: Short the EB - BZ spread when the price is high. [4][65] - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The urea futures showed wide - range fluctuations, and the spot prices were stable. The daily output of the urea industry was at a high level, and the开工 rate increased compared with the same period last year. Although the international supply was tight due to the conflict in the Middle East, the impact on the domestic market was limited. The domestic demand was gradually released, and the urea enterprises' inventories started to decline. Under policy pressure, the upside of the spot price was limited, and it was expected that urea would continue to fluctuate. Key factors to watch were the Middle East situation and domestic policies [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures fluctuated widely and closed at 1882 (+10/+0.53%) [3] - Spot market: The ex - factory prices were stable, with different price ranges in various regions. For example, Henan's ex - factory price was 1810 - 1830 yuan/ton, and Shandong's small - particle ex - factory price was 1820 - 1840 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On March 30, the daily output of the urea industry was 21.91 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons compared with the previous working day and 2.61 tons compared with the same period last year. The current operating rate was 93.04%, a 7.26% increase compared with 85.78% in the same period last year [4] Logic Analysis - In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory quotes were firm, the market sentiment was okay, but the industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined. New orders were smoothly concluded, and the ex - factory quotes were expected to remain firm. In Henan, the market sentiment cooled, the ex - factory quotes were firm, but the order volume decreased, and the ex - factory quotes were also expected to remain firm. Around the delivery area, the ex - factory prices were firm, the market atmosphere was average, and the ex - factory prices were expected to remain stable. Although some domestic plants were shut down for maintenance, the daily output was still high. The international supply was tight, but the impact on the domestic market was limited. The compound fertilizer operating rate increased, but procurement basically stopped. The urea enterprises' inventories started to decline after a large inventory build - up during the Spring Festival. Domestic demand was released, and the manufacturers' order receipts were okay. Under policy pressure, the upside of the spot price was limited, and urea was expected to continue to fluctuate [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short at high levels [7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7] - Options: Wait and see [7] Related Charts - The charts showed the historical data of urea's daily output, total output, coal - based and gas - based operating rates, port inventory, enterprise inventory, enterprise pre - orders, compound fertilizer demand, compound fertilizer and melamine operating rates, and the arrival volume in Northeast China from 2023 to 2026 [10][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the daily market data of four stock index futures, including IM, IF, IC, and IH, covering closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, and positions of major seats [3][21][42][61]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IM Futures - **Daily Quotes**: The closing price of the CSI 1000 index was 7,767.93, up 0.28%. The main contract IM2606 rose 0.1% to close at 7,509.4 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 236,925 lots, an increase of 10,930 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 386,822 lots, an increase of 3,733 lots [3][5]. - **Basis**: The main contract was at a discount of 258.53 points, a decrease of 36.02 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -14.78%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 0.17 points, 5.26 points, 37.65 points, and 58.75 points respectively [5]. - **Positions of Major Seats**: The positions and trading volumes of major seats in IM2604, IM2605, IM2606, and IM2609 are presented, including details of the top five, top ten, and top twenty seats [16][18][20]. IF Futures - **Daily Quotes**: The closing price of the CSI 300 index was 4,491.95, down 0.24%. The main contract IF2606 fell 0.33% to close at 4,414 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 94,739 lots, an increase of 4,728 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 253,648 lots, a decrease of 5,068 lots [21][23]. - **Basis**: The main contract was at a discount of 77.95 points, a decrease of 2.78 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -7.58%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 0.51 points, 6.95 points, 26.79 points, and 72.35 points respectively [23]. - **Positions of Major Seats**: The positions and trading volumes of major seats in IF2604, IF2605, IF2606, and IF2609 are presented, including details of the top five, top ten, and top twenty seats [37][39][40]. IC Futures - **Daily Quotes**: The closing price of the CSI 500 index was 7,753.72, up 0.21%. The main contract IC2606 rose 0.26% to close at 7,560.6 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 159,513 lots, an increase of 3,084 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 281,424 lots, a decrease of 6,186 lots [42][43]. - **Basis**: The main contract was at a discount of 193.12 points, a decrease of 14.71 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -10.97%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 6.67 points, 11.07 points, 56.18 points, and 91.2 points respectively [43]. - **Positions of Major Seats**: The positions and trading volumes of major seats in IC2604, IC2606, and IC2609 are presented, including details of the top five, top ten, and top twenty seats [56][57][59]. IH Futures - **Daily Quotes**: The closing price of the SSE 50 index was 2,833.21, down 0.14%. The main contract IH2606 fell 0.16% to close at 2,812.4 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 45,981 lots, an increase of 1,629 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 101,512 lots, a decrease of 427 lots [61]. - **Basis**: The main contract was at a discount of 20.81 points, an increase of 2.1 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -3.18%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 0 points, 2.31 points, 14.32 points, and 51.5 points respectively [62]. - **Positions of Major Seats**: The positions and trading volumes of major seats in IH2604, IH2606, and IH2609 are presented, including details of the top five, top ten, and top twenty seats [75][77][79].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Methanol Daily Report [1] - Report Date: March 30, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: The futures price reached a new high and then declined, closing at 3319 (+77/+2.38%) [2] - Spot Market: Different regions have different spot prices, such as Inner Mongolia南线 at 2440 yuan/ton, 北线 at 2640 yuan/ton, etc. [2] Group 3: Important Information - International Methanol Production: In the current cycle (20260321 - 20260327), the international methanol (excluding China) production was 703,419 tons, a decrease of 14,480 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 48.22%, a 0.99% decrease from the previous week [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply Side: The ex - factory price of methanol in the mainland has been rising following the sharp increase in futures prices. The profit of coal - to - methanol has expanded to around 1000 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is continuously abundant [4] - Demand Side: The operating rate of MTO devices is low. Some MTO devices are shut down or operating at low loads, while some have restart expectations [4] - International Situation: Iranian methanol plants are still in a state of full shutdown, and the daily output has dropped from 23,000 tons to around 1200 tons. The market is worried about a significant reduction in imports [4] - Inventory: As of March 18, 2026, the total port inventory was 126.17 tons, a decrease of 5.11 tons from the previous period. The port inventory is expected to decrease by more than 30 tons [4] - Outlook: Due to the continuous conflict between the US and Iran, methanol is expected to continue its strong trend [4] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Operate with caution [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [6] Group 6: Related Charts - Charts show data on methanol port inventory, enterprise inventory, order backlog, and device operating rates from 2023 to 2026 [7][9]