1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This fruit season, the supply of apples is slightly tight as the cold - storage inventory is low and of poor quality, while the demand is good during the relative off - season of domestic fruit supply in March. The acquisition and cold - storage apple prices are high. For the new fruit season, although there is a high probability of a high - yield year for apples, the early flowering due to high accumulated temperature increases the risk of frost damage and makes the new - season apple yield highly uncertain. The 10 - month contract price is high, but considering the high frost - damage risk in April, it is advisable to short at high prices after the apple flowering period ends and it is confirmed that the frost damage is not severe [6][38][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In March, the main - continuous price of apple futures fluctuated significantly. It first rose from around 9,800 yuan/ton to nearly 11,000 yuan/ton, then dropped back to around 9,800 yuan/ton, rose again to around 10,700 yuan/ton, and finally dropped back to around 9,800 yuan/ton. Due to low spot inventory and uncertainty about deliverable warehouse receipts in May, the price repeatedly soared but was pushed down by delivery sell - orders [5][12]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Fundamental analysis: This season, apple supply is tight with low and poor - quality cold - storage inventory. In March, the demand was good during the fruit supply off - season. The acquisition and cold - storage prices are high. For the new season, although it is likely a high - yield year, early flowering due to high accumulated temperature increases frost - damage risk and yield uncertainty. - Disk analysis: The 10 - month contract price is high, seemingly a chance to short at high prices. But considering the high frost - damage risk in April, it is recommended to short at high prices after the apple flowering period ends and it is confirmed that the frost damage is not severe [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Short the 10 - month contract at high prices after the apple flowering period ends and it is confirmed that the frost damage is not severe. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In March, apple sales were okay. Cold - storage inventory was low, and high - quality apples had relatively strong prices. The opening price of Shaanxi Luochuan paper - bagged Fuji 70 semi - commodity increased slightly to around 4.35 yuan/jin, 0.6 yuan/jin higher than last year. The trading price of Shandong Qixia paper - bagged Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade goods was stable at around 4 yuan/jin, 0.05 yuan/jin lower than last year. The main - continuous price of apple futures fluctuated significantly as described in the preface summary [12]. 3.2.2 Cold - Storage De - stocking Demand is Good - As of March 27, 2026, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 4.4179 million tons, a decrease of 266,400 tons from last week and 300,300 tons from last year, a 6.4% decrease. Shandong's cold - storage inventory increased by 6.1% year - on - year, Shaanxi's decreased by 25.5%, Gansu's decreased by 46.9%, Shanxi's increased by 90.6%, and Liaoning's increased by 129.4%. Gansu and Shaanxi had faster de - stocking speeds. Considering April is a fruit supply off - season, the de - stocking speed is expected to remain high [14][16]. 3.2.3 High Accumulated Temperature Leads to Early Flowering of New - Season Apples - Although it is likely a high - yield year for apples this year, high accumulated temperature may lead to apple flowers blooming one to ten days earlier. This increases the risk of frost damage and may have a negative impact on yield, so there is still great uncertainty during the flowering period [24]. 3.2.4 Apple Demand was Okay in March and is Expected to Remain Stable in April - In March, despite being a traditional off - season, apple sales were okay due to the fruit supply off - season. The weekly cold - storage apple sales in the first four weeks of March were 253,900 tons, 278,200 tons, 312,900 tons, and 266,400 tons respectively. In April, which is also a fruit supply off - season and a peak cold - storage apple delivery period, the delivery volume is expected to remain high. The arrival volume at Guangzhou's three major wholesale markets increased gradually in March, with an average daily arrival of 52.67 trucks, maintaining a medium - level. In April, the arrival volume is expected to remain high [25][28]. 3.2.5 Import and Export Situation - Apple export: In January and February 2026, the export volume was at a high level in the same period. The export volumes were 99,900 tons (a 9.4% year - on - year increase and a 36.1% month - on - month decrease) and 79,100 tons (a 16% year - on - year increase and a 20.9% month - on - month decrease) respectively. The cumulative export volume in the first two months was about 179,000 tons, a 17.9% year - on - year increase. The export volume in March is expected to increase compared to February. - Apple import: In January and February 2026, the import volume was at a high level in the same period. The import volumes were 2,800 tons (an 18% year - on - year increase and a 26% month - on - month decrease) and 2,100 tons (a 41% year - on - year increase and a 24.4% month - on - month decrease) respectively. The cumulative import volume in the first two months was about 4,900 tons, a 26.9% year - on - year increase. Although the import volume in March is still expected to be low, it is expected to gradually increase [33]. 3.2.6 High Prices of Substitute Fruits - The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits fluctuated in March, starting at 7.83 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and ending at 7.75 yuan/kg, remaining at a high level in the same period over the years. The average wholesale price of tangerines also fluctuated, remaining at around 6.6 yuan/kg, higher than in February and at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. Due to the short - term lack of available substitute fruits in March and April, the demand for apples is okay [36]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Fundamental analysis: This fruit season, apple supply is tight, demand is good, and costs are high. For the new fruit season, although there is a high probability of a high - yield year, early flowering increases frost - damage risk and yield uncertainty. - Disk analysis: The 10 - month contract price is high, seemingly a chance to short at high prices. But considering the high frost - damage risk in April, it is recommended to short at high prices after the apple flowering period ends and it is confirmed that the frost damage is not severe [38][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report states that geopolitical and raw material factors are the main reasons, and there is unlikely to be a trend - based market for steel products [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation - **Price and Basis**: The report presents season - based price charts of Shanghai 20mm threaded steel and 4.75mm hot - rolled coil, as well as basis season charts of threaded steel 05 contract and hot - rolled coil 05 contract in Shanghai [6][8]. - **Production**: It shows monthly production data of pig iron and crude steel from the National Bureau of Statistics, daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills, and capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnaces [20][27]. - **Import and Export**: There are charts of steel and billet import quantities, as well as monthly export values of steel and billet [29][59]. - **Demand and Inventory**: It includes weekly apparent demand and lunar total inventory charts of five major steel products, threaded steel, and hot - rolled coil, as well as the inventory of billets in the Tangshan area [37][42][41][56]. 3.2 April Market Outlook - **Profit**: The report provides charts of cash profits of East China electric furnaces (flat - rate electricity) and North China threaded steel long - process, as well as weekly production charts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil [67][71]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: It shows data on new social financing scale, new RMB loans, cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment, land transaction area of 100 large and medium - sized cities, and other economic indicators [73][76]. - **Real Estate Indicators**: There are charts of year - on - year growth rate of monthly sales area of commercial housing, year - on - year growth rate of new housing starts, year - on - year growth rate of housing completion area, and year - on - year growth rate of real estate development funds [79][85]. - **Infrastructure Indicators**: It presents data on the issuance amount of local government special bonds, loan demand index for infrastructure, cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure fixed - asset investment, and month - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment [103][106]. - **Manufacturing Indicators**: The report includes charts of various sub - items of PMI, manufacturing PMI, cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits, and month - on - year growth rate of industrial added value [118][120]. - **Industry - Specific Production**: It shows monthly production data of Chinese automobiles, year - on - year growth rate of civil steel ship production, monthly production of Chinese excavators, and monthly production of Chinese metal containers [130][136].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In April, the ferroalloy market is expected to see a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Energy costs support the prices, leading to high - level oscillations. For ferrosilicon, the supply is currently low but is expected to rise due to profit recovery, and the demand (hot metal production) is on the rise. For silicomanganese, the supply is relatively stable with some new capacity coming online and potential self - imposed production cuts, and the demand (steel production) is expected to seasonally rebound. The high - level crude oil prices support the cost of manganese ore [2][3][72][74] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Outlook - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply is currently low, but with the recent sharp rise in spot prices and profit recovery, production is expected to increase. In April, hot metal production is still in an upward channel, so the fundamentals are expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Although the sharp rise in international energy prices has not significantly driven up the electricity prices in the main production areas, there is an expectation of rising energy costs, which supports the ferrosilicon price to oscillate at a high level [2][72][74] - **Silicomanganese**: The production of sample enterprises has decreased slightly, and some new capacity has been put into operation, with overall stable supply. Some industry associations have called for self - imposed production cuts, but the actual implementation needs attention. Steel production is expected to continue its seasonal rebound. The Narelle hurricane did not cause significant damage to port shipping facilities, and the emotional stimulus is expected to gradually subside. However, high - level crude oil prices increase the transportation cost of manganese ore, and the shortage of diesel in mines may also affect mining and transportation. So, there is still a bottom - level support for manganese ore before the energy crisis is resolved [2][74] 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In March, ferroalloy futures prices rose sharply due to multiple emergencies. The military strike on Iran by the US and Israel in late February led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices and an increase in the prices of international coal and natural gas. As energy - intensive products, the valuation of ferroalloys also increased. In late March, Hurricane Narelle hit the main manganese ore shipping port in Australia, raising the expectation of short - term supply shortage [7] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand in April - **Supply**: In February, the output of silicomanganese (187 enterprises) was 774,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. In late March, some new capacity was put into operation, and the output in March is expected to increase slightly. The output of ferrosilicon (136 enterprises) in February was 394,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 12%, and the output in March is also expected to increase. As of the week of March 27, the operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 27.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%, and the daily output was 102,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,000 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 32.01%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.08%, and the daily output was 191,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 46,000 tons [27] - **Demand**: Affected by the temporary environmental protection restrictions on steel mills in the northern region during the Two Sessions, hot metal production first decreased and then increased in March. As of the week of March 27, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.3109 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,400 tons. In April, according to the blast furnace maintenance plan, steel mills are still in the seasonal resumption of production trend, and hot metal production is expected to maintain a slight upward trend. Overall, the situation of increasing supply and demand is expected in April. Although the inventory inflection point of steel has appeared and the apparent demand has continued to rise, the slow destocking of hot - rolled coils may limit the height of steel mill复产 [27][30] 3.2.3 Inventory Situation - In March, the overall inventory of alloy plants was slightly relieved. As of the week of March 27, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 54,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,500 tons; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 372,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,000 tons. Generally, the ferrosilicon inventory is relatively normal, while the silicomanganese inventory is relatively high, and high inventory is still the main pressure suppressing the price increase. For downstream inventory, as the hot metal production of steel mills gradually recovers, the available days of raw material inventory have slightly decreased month - on - month. However, due to the relatively low absolute value of steel profits and the high level of available days in the past three years, steel mills are expected to mainly maintain just - in - time procurement in April [42] 3.2.4 Cost Situation - Since the large - scale strike on Iran by the US and Israel at the end of February, the prices of energy such as crude oil and natural gas have risen sharply, and the international steam coal price has also risen, driving the domestic steam coal price to stop falling and rebound. Although the sharp rise in international energy prices has not significantly driven up the electricity prices in the main production areas, there is an expectation of rising energy costs, which supports the alloy price. For manganese ore, the port inventory is slightly higher than that of last year but lower than the average of the past four years. The Narelle hurricane did not cause significant damage to port shipping facilities, and the emotional stimulus is expected to gradually subside. However, high - level crude oil prices increase the transportation cost of manganese ore, and the shortage of diesel in mines may also affect mining and transportation. So, there is still a bottom - level support for manganese ore before the energy crisis is resolved [58] 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral Strategy**: The fundamentals show increasing supply and demand, and energy costs support the bottom. Overall, the price will oscillate at a high level [3] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [3] - **Option Strategy**: Sell put options on rallies [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current agricultural product market is in a stage of intertwined games between macro risks (geopolitical and crude oil) and industrial fundamentals (sufficient supply and weak demand). Short - term trends are driven by events such as geopolitical situations, customs clearance logistics, and policy news, with intensified fluctuations. Medium - and long - term trends depend on the clarity of core factors such as North American planting weather, global demand recovery, and the degree of domestic pig production capacity reduction. Investors are advised to adopt a cautious and flexible strategy, focusing on structural opportunities, spread arbitrage, and band operations rather than unilateral trend bets [15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Environment - The Middle East geopolitical conflict is the core macro variable dominating the commodity market, affecting agricultural product costs and market sentiment through multiple paths such as pushing up crude oil prices, causing inflation concerns, and influencing the prices of the US dollar and risk assets (stocks and bonds) [7] - Most views believe that the crude oil price has been locked at a high level due to war premiums (e.g., Brent crude oil may remain above $80 per barrel), and energy cost increases will continue to be transmitted to the agricultural product production and logistics links [7] 2. Oilseeds and Oils Market (Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil) Soybean Meal - Short - term contradiction: The price is supported by import costs (US soybean price and war - induced logistics costs) but limited by high arrival volume (expected monthly average of over 10 million tons from May to August) and weak spot basis. The arrival and customs clearance efficiency of soybeans from April to May are key uncertain factors affecting the basis and inter - month spreads [8] - Market divergence: There are different views on the future direction. One side believes that prices are difficult to fall sharply before macro risks (war) subside; the other side believes that as macro risks are released, the market will return to fundamentals (bumper harvest in South America and sufficient domestic supply), and prices face downward pressure, waiting for new positive drivers such as North American planting season weather and US agricultural policies [8] - Trading strategy: Unilateral trend - based market is not strong, and band operations are more suitable. There is high attention to the May - September spread. Some views believe that the space for reverse arbitrage (short May and long September) is limited, and positive arbitrage (long May and short September) needs a driving factor (e.g., supply shortage in April). It is recommended to pay attention to trading opportunities in non - main contracts [8] Rapeseed Meal - Core view: There is a risk of being weak in stages [9] - Negative factors: The opening of Canadian rapeseed imports, with an expected monthly arrival of about 500,000 tons of rapeseed meal, will lead to obvious inventory accumulation in China. The possible discount in the delivery rules of Australian rapeseed meal may indirectly drag down the futures price [9] - Potential variables: The uncertainty of the inspection time for Canadian rapeseed imports may be a short - term speculation point. EU import demand is nearly saturated, and the global rapeseed supply pressure is concentrated in Canada, whose prices face competitive pressure [9] Vegetable Oils (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Soybean oil: Affected by both macro - crude oil and export profits, the current price is at a high level. However, if the subsequent demand weakens, the price has downward pressure. The domestic soybean oil basis also faces the pressure of oversupply [11] - Rapeseed oil: As a necessity, the current spot basis is high, but the long - term expectation is weak. There may be inventory accumulation problems after June. There is regional price differentiation (inverted prices in coastal areas and low prices in inland areas), which may lead to the transfer of delivery pressure [11] - Palm oil: Facing inventory pressure and continuous ship purchases driven by import profits, there is a short - term imbalance between supply and demand. The setback of the B50 policy and crude oil price fluctuations are the main influencing factors [11] - Trading strategy: Some suggest considering the spread strategy of buying soybean oil and shorting rapeseed oil. For palm oil, it is recommended to directly arrange long - term contracts to avoid near - month fluctuations [11] 3. Corn and Grain Market - Price trend: The center of corn prices has moved up (e.g., the price at the northern port has risen from 2,050 yuan per ton to 2,360 yuan per ton), mainly affected by the increase in international fertilizer costs and domestic planting costs [12] - Short - term suppression: The current price is suppressed by high inventories of traders (costs are generally higher than the current market price) and weekly wheat auctions of about 800,000 tons. It is expected that the price will remain in a stalemate and difficult to break through effectively before the new wheat is listed in July - August [12] - Future outlook: The price of new - season wheat is expected to be higher than last year, but the upward space is limited. The direct impact of the Middle East conflict on domestic grain prices (through fertilizer costs) is evaluated as limited [12] 4. Pig Market - Industry status: The industry is generally in a process of deep losses and production capacity reduction, but the reduction speed is slow, and market sentiment is pessimistic [13] - Future outlook: It is generally predicted that there may be a turning point in the market in 2026, but there are differences in the specific time (e.g., the end of the second quarter or the third quarter). It takes time to reduce sow production capacity, and large - scale farms still have certain resilience [13] - Demand - side impact: The pressure on breeding profits leads to adjustments in the feed formula (e.g., using wheat to replace part of corn and soybean meal), suppressing the demand for raw materials such as soybean meal [13] 5. Other Commodities and Macroeconomic Strategy Views - Fertilizer and supply chain: Geopolitics may affect the global nitrogen fertilizer supply, which is then transmitted to agricultural product costs. There is obvious regional differentiation in the supply chain, and long - distance transportation costs have soared [14] - Repairing undervalued high - quality assets: For example, non - ferrous metals (such as lithium carbonate) and stock indexes sold off during the liquidity shock [14] - Paying attention to marginalized or fundamentally independent commodities: For example, some fine chemicals may have long - term opportunities due to limited production capacity [14] - Selecting agricultural products carefully: In the context of an overall "bear market year" and cost pressure, pay attention to varieties with independent supply - demand logic, such as sugar (both supply and demand are booming), and be aware of weather risks such as El Niño [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The global economic growth outlook is affected by the uncertainty in the Middle East situation, with potential impacts on inflation and economic growth. The market is highly sensitive to geopolitical events, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, which has a significant impact on various futures markets [20]. - Different futures markets have different trends and influencing factors. For example, the stock index futures are affected by the decline of US stocks and global risk - preference changes; the bond futures are influenced by the uncertainty of the Middle East war and the central bank's monetary policy; the agricultural product futures are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies; the black metal futures are affected by overseas sentiment, raw material supply, and downstream demand; the non - ferrous metal futures are affected by geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic factors; the shipping and carbon market futures are affected by geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy factors; the energy - chemical futures are affected by the negotiation between the US and Iran, supply - demand balance, and energy price fluctuations. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The decline of US stocks affects market sentiment. The stock index fell across the board on Thursday, and the futures contracts also declined. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and short - term indexes are expected to continue to fluctuate [20][21][22]. - **Bond Futures**: The risk preference in the market is volatile. The bond futures closed higher on Thursday. The central bank's net injection of short - term liquidity keeps the market funds stable. The future direction of the bond market may be determined by whether the energy price increase will be transmitted to the domestic core inflation [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The market has increased disturbance factors, and the price shows a wide - range shock. The supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and the price may decline in the future [28][29]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is expected to be strong due to the reduction of sugar production expectations in major producing countries. The domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international price slightly, with a trend of being strong [30][32][33]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: The oil and fat market maintains a high - level shock. The supply of palm oil in Malaysia is expected to continue to decrease in March, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is still high. The US biodiesel policy is yet to be determined [34][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The wheat auction price has decreased, and the corn futures price shows a weak shock. The deep - processing demand has increased, but the supply pressure still exists [37][40][41]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure has increased, and the price has generally declined. The feed price has a greater impact on the breeding profit, and the overall inventory of hogs is still large [42][43]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price of peanuts is strong, and the futures price shows a strong shock. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the oil factory still has a profit [45][46]. - **Eggs**: The demand has recovered, and the egg price is mainly stable. The supply of eggs is relatively loose, and it is not recommended to chase the increase [50][51]. - **Apples**: The demand for apples is good, and the price is firm. The inventory of cold - storage apples is low, but the upward momentum of the May contract is limited [52][53]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton price has strong support at the bottom and shows a shock - strengthening trend. The supply in this year is basically determined, and there is a rumor of production reduction in the new year. The demand in the downstream market is good [55][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Overseas sentiment affects the futures price, and the steel market lacks a trend - type market. The demand for steel is still recovering, but the export is affected by the US - Iran conflict [59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, and the trend is not obvious. The market is mainly driven by funds and emotions, and the geopolitical situation needs to be closely monitored [62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is still disturbed, and the ore price is running at a high level. The market rumors are numerous, and the supply - demand situation is complex. It is recommended that spot enterprises conduct hedging at a high level [64][65]. - **Ferroalloys**: Affected by the large - scale fluctuation of crude oil, the price is running at a high - level shock. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are in a positive feedback, but they are easily affected by energy prices [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market maintains a shock. The US - Iran negotiation is in a stalemate, and the risk of war escalation still exists. The price is affected by factors such as energy prices and central bank gold sales [69][70][71]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The precious metals are in a weak shock. The market is concerned about the inflation caused by energy prices, and the unilateral position risk is high. Platinum can be considered for short - term long positions, and palladium is expected to follow weakly [74][75]. - **Copper**: Attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran negotiation. The geopolitical situation is complex, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. The price direction is not clear [78]. - **Alumina**: Attention should be paid to the mining policy in Guinea and the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The supply of bauxite may be reduced, and the price of alumina is affected by market sentiment [80][81]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The geopolitical conflict has uncertainty. The aluminum production capacity in the Middle East may be affected by raw material shortages [83]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The geopolitical situation is uncertain. The supply of scrap aluminum is restricted, and the downstream demand is weak [87]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the macro and capital emotions. The basic situation at home and abroad supports the zinc price, but the macro uncertainty still exists [91]. - **Lead**: The price is in a low - level shock. The domestic secondary lead smelting is in a loss, but the consumption may improve in the peak season [92]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price is dominated by the macro situation. The supply - demand gap in March has narrowed, and the cost support is strong, but the price is still in a shock [95]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by the cost, it follows the nickel price. The chromium - based raw materials are rising, and the inventory is being reduced, but the supply may be loose in April [98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price reaches the upper limit of the range, and it is recommended to participate in short - positions lightly. The supply - demand situation has no obvious change, and the industry meeting may have an impact on the price [99]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand is weak, and a short - selling idea is recommended. The production in March has increased, and the inventory may accumulate in April [102]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply disturbance supports the price to run at a high level. The supply in April may be affected by the reduction of imports from Zimbabwe, and the price has both support and pressure [103]. - **Tin**: The US - Iran peace negotiation is in doubt, and the tin price is under pressure. The Middle East situation affects the helium export, which may be transmitted to the global semiconductor supply chain [106]. Shipping and Carbon Market - **Container Shipping**: The US postpones the energy strike against Iran for 10 days, and the spot price is expected to be reduced. The near - month and far - month contracts have different trends, and the geopolitical risk needs to be vigilant [108][110][111]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The bad weather in Western Australia causes concerns about ore shipments, and the demand for steel mills to replenish inventory supports the rent of large ships to rise. The market is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and the shipping situation in the Middle East [112][114][115]. - **Carbon Market**: The trading in the Chinese carbon market is dull, and the EU carbon market has the March contract delivery. The carbon price in the EU is expected to be in a shock - strengthening trend, and the Chinese carbon price may be affected by factors such as policy and demand [116][117][120]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The negotiation prospect is still unclear. The supply gap still exists, and the international oil price maintains high volatility [123]. - **Asphalt**: The supply contraction exists, and attention should be paid to the near - end oil price fluctuation risk. The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the social inventory is high [126][127]. - **Fuel Oil**: The difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur prices should pay attention to the low - sulfur production reduction and the start - up rhythm of high - sulfur peak - season demand. The Singapore fuel oil inventory is at a high level, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is tight [127][129]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates around the geopolitical situation. The external market price of LPG has fallen, and the domestic price is affected by the negotiation situation [131]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the upward trend remains unchanged. The supply of LNG in Qatar is interrupted, and the market supply gap is gradually accumulating [133][134]. - **PX & PTA**: The supply has an expected unplanned reduction, and PTA enterprises are forced to reduce production. The PX device is in the traditional maintenance season, and the downstream enterprises are reducing production [137][138]. - **BZ & EB**: The refinery's load reduction affects the pure benzene supply, and the benzene import volume decreases year - on - year. The downstream demand is expected to pick up, and the price is in a shock - strengthening trend [140][141]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The import volume is revised down. The domestic and overseas production is affected, and the 4 - month import volume is expected to be significantly reduced [144]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing margin fluctuates within a range. The sales of short - fiber factories are differentiated, and it short - term follows the trend of polyester raw materials [146][147]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory is continuously being reduced. The production load of bottle - chip factories has increased, and the inventory is being reduced during the procurement peak season [148]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline this cycle. The cost increases, and the supply risk increases. The domestic and foreign production is affected, and the demand is gradually recovering [150][151]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of polyolefins of the two major oil companies accumulates. The market price is in a shock - strengthening trend, but the downstream demand is not strong [153][154]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is weakening. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is slightly decreased, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises is in a loss [156][158]. - **PVC**: It is mainly in a shock. The global supply of PVC is expected to be reduced, and the domestic supply also has a contraction expectation [159]. - **Soda Ash**: It is in a high - level shock. The supply is reduced, the demand growth is tested, and the price is expected to be weakly shocked [161][162]. - **Glass**: It is in a shock - decline. The inventory in the middle - stream is high, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [164][166]. - **Methanol**: It is in a wide - range shock. The production in Iran is reduced, the domestic import is expected to be reduced, and the supply - demand situation is changing [167][169]. - **Urea**: It is mainly in a shock. The domestic production is at a high level, the international supply is tight, and the price is affected by policies [172]. - **Pulp**: The inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is still high. The supply exceeds the demand, and the demand support is insufficient [176][178]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the market is under pressure. The supply - demand relationship is in a weak balance, and the price is weak [183]. - **Logs**: The market is generally strong. The cost support is strong, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [185][186]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The tire production increases marginally. The export of Vietnamese rubber has changed, and the domestic tire production line is increasing [187][190]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The tire production increases marginally. The market situation is similar to that of natural rubber, and the production of the tire production line is increasing [191][194].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market is affected by multiple factors including supply - demand dynamics, weather conditions, and economic indicators. There are continuous fluctuations in prices and inventory levels, and investment strategies vary according to different market situations [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **RU Natural Rubber**: Prices of RU主力05合约 fluctuated between 16010 - 17315 points from February 24 to March 27, 2026. The prices of different types of natural rubber such as WF, Vietnam 3L, Thai smoked sheets, and origin standard - two also showed certain ranges of fluctuations [1][20][24] - **NR 20 - number Rubber**: NR主力05合约 prices fluctuated between 12845 - 13865 points during the same period. The prices of related products like smoked sheet rubber cargo, Thai standard near - port cargo, etc. also had corresponding changes [1][20][24] - **BR Butadiene Rubber**: BR主力05合约 prices fluctuated between 12590 - 18425 points. The prices of butadiene rubber in different regions such as Shandong and East China also showed varying trends [1][2][20] Important Information - **Export Data**: In the first two months of 2026, Vietnam's natural rubber exports decreased by 11% year - on - year, while mixed rubber exports increased by 20%. Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased by 15% in the first two months of 2026, and mixed rubber exports increased by 6% [2][7] - **Industry News**: The Indian natural rubber demand is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2026. The global natural rubber market is expected to have a structural shortage for the sixth consecutive year in 2026. The US tire total shipments are expected to increase by 0.7% in 2026 [11][107][70] Logical Analysis - **Economic Indicators**: Factors such as the US auto and parts new order amount, domestic new pneumatic rubber tire export amount, and EuroCoin index have different impacts on the rubber market. For example, in January 2026, the US auto and parts new order amount increased by 13.1% year - on - year, which was positive for commodities [3] - **Inventory and Production**: The inventory levels of RU and NR contracts, as well as the production and inventory of tires, are important factors affecting the market. For example, in March 2026, the total inventory inside and outside Qingdao Bonded Area increased to 68.12 tons, which was positive for Thai standard rubber [7] - **Weather and Other Factors**: Weather conditions such as rainfall in Thailand and the El Nino index also have an impact on the rubber market. For example, from March 2026, the weighted average daily rainfall of Thai natural rubber production decreased to 0.76mm/day, which was negative for Thai standard rubber [7] Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Strategies mainly include holding long positions, short positions, or waiting and seeing. For example, on March 27, 2026, for the RU主力05合约, long positions were held with a stop - loss set at 16220 points [3] - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: Strategies mainly involve holding certain spreads and setting stop - loss levels. For example, on March 27, 2026, the spread of NR2605 - RU2605 (1 lot to 1 lot) was - 2815 points and was held with a stop - loss set at - 2865 points [3] - **Options**: Most of the time, the strategy is to wait and see [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to show a strong trend due to high international oil prices and major sugar - producing countries' downward revisions of sugar production expectations. Domestic sugar prices are expected to follow slightly, considering the low current sugar prices and the narrowing gap between domestic and international sugar prices. The trading strategies include going long on Zhengzhou sugar at low prices and selling high, going long on ICE sugar and short on Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage, and selling put options [8] 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,485 with a rise of 24 (0.44%), trading volume of 105,506 (a decrease of 12572), and an open interest of 272,971 (an increase of 9119); SR01 closed at 5,627 with a rise of 26 (0.46%), trading volume of 7,322 (an increase of 1136), and an open interest of 29,566 (an increase of 2325); SR05 closed at 5,463 with a rise of 34 (0.63%), trading volume of 264,326 (an increase of 1405), and an open interest of 317,898 (a decrease of 774) [3] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions vary. For example, the price in Liuzhou is 5480, in Kunming is 5325, in Wuhan is 5790, etc. The price in Kunming increased by 5, while others remained unchanged. The basis in different regions also varies, such as 17 in Liuzhou, - 138 in Kunming [3] - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between SR05 - SR01 is - 164 (an increase of 8), the spread between SR09 - SR05 is 22 (a decrease of 10), and the spread between SR09 - SR01 is - 142 (a decrease of 2) [3] - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the quota - within price is 4376, the out - of - quota price is 5571, with a spread of - 91 compared to Liuzhou and 79 compared to Rizhao. For Thai imports, the quota - within price is 4213, the out - of - quota price is 5358, with a spread of 122 compared to Liuzhou and 292 compared to Rizhao [3] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: On March 25, 2026, India's Food Ministry announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for April 2026 is 2.3 million tons, 50,000 tons less than the same period last year but 50,000 tons more than the previous month. The sugar production in Inner Mongolia in the 25/26 sugar - making season ended on March 17, with a final output of 685,000 tons, 21,500 tons more than the previous year but 15,000 tons less than expected. In India's Bijnor region, some sugar mills are expected to finish crushing by the end of March due to a decline in sugarcane production [5][6] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the sugar production increase in India this season is likely to be less than expected, and global sugar production expectations for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons have been revised downwards, supporting international sugar prices. Domestically, the sugar supply is under pressure as the domestic sugar is in the peak crushing period and the production is likely to increase significantly this season. However, considering the low sugar prices and the narrowing gap between domestic and international sugar prices, domestic sugar prices are expected to follow slightly [8] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: International sugar prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be trend - strong, so it is recommended to buy at low prices and sell at high prices. Arbitrage: Go long on ICE sugar and short on Zhengzhou sugar. Options: Sell put options [8][13] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures, including monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou's spot sugar price, the price difference between Liuzhou and Kunming, and various basis and spread data of sugar futures contracts [10][15][18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of this year is basically determined, but there are rumors of a production cut in the new year, which still provides some support for the market. The current commercial inventory is lower than that of the previous year, which is bullish for cotton prices. The downstream market is operating well, with recent increases in yarn prices. The orders in the "Golden March" this year are generally good, but the market is cautious about the future. If the downstream maintains the current operating level, it will support the market. Considering the rapid inventory reduction of gauze, there may be restocking behavior in the future, which is also bullish for the market [6]. - It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have not changed much. It is advisable to consider building long positions on dips and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Disk Information**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts are presented, along with their respective changes. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 15900, up 35, with a trading volume of 8,477 (an increase of 3073) and an open interest of 24,055 (an increase of 1374) [2]. - **Spot Price Information**: The prices and price changes of various spot products are provided, such as CCIndex3128B (16711 yuan/ton, up 119), CY IndexC32S (22180, up 30), etc. [2]. - **Spread Information**: Cotton and yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads are given, including the spreads between different months and the differences between domestic and foreign cotton and yarn prices. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton is 480, down 45 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - In January 2026, India's total export volume of cotton yarn (HS:5205) was 110,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.44% and a month - on - month increase of 9.39%. From August 2025 to January 2026, India's cotton yarn export volume was 565,000 tons, with 231,100 tons exported to Bangladesh (a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%, accounting for 40.91%) and 183,100 tons exported to China (a year - on - year increase of 133.18%, accounting for 18.31%) [4]. - On March 26, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang cotton was 0.1561 yuan/ton·km, remaining unchanged from the previous day. In the short term, the price index shows a relatively stable operation characteristic [4]. - In February 2026, Pakistan's textile and clothing export value was 1.311 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.22% and a month - on - month decrease of 24.59%. It exported 30,900 tons of cotton yarn (a year - on - year increase of 56.97% and a month - on - month increase of 1.52%) and 259 million tons of cotton cloth (a year - on - year decrease of 9.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.37%). From January to February 2026, Pakistan's total textile and clothing export value was 3.05 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.59%. It exported a total of 61,300 tons of cotton yarn (a year - on - year increase of 38.18%) and 58 tons of cotton cloth (a year - on - year increase of 8.98%) [5]. Trading Logic - The supply side of this year is basically determined, but there are rumors of a production cut in the new year, which still provides some support for the market. The current commercial inventory is lower than that of the previous year, which is bullish for cotton prices. The downstream market is operating well, with recent increases in yarn prices. The orders in the "Golden March" this year are generally good, but the market is cautious about the future. If the downstream maintains the current operating level, it will support the market. Considering the rapid inventory reduction of gauze, there may be restocking behavior in the future, which is also bullish for the market [6]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have not changed much. It is advisable to consider building long positions on dips and not to chase high prices [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7]. - **Options**: Wait and see [7]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading of pure cotton yarn is fair, and textile enterprises' sales are smooth but showing marginal weakness. Downstream orders can last until mid - April. High - quality yarn prices are firm, while ordinary - quality prices are stable or slightly decreasing. Traders are offering discounts for promotion. Manufacturers are not optimistic about the future market, and the period after the Tomb - sweeping Festival is an important observation point. Future attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand [8]. - The sales of the all - cotton grey cloth market are gradually weakening, and the sales atmosphere has not improved significantly. Except for the sustainable orders of home textile products, the orders for knitted and woven fabrics are difficult to continue. Many fabric mills report that foreign orders have not been placed, and the increase in domestic orders is also lower than expected. Grey cloth prices are still market - driven, and grey cloth traders are also selling goods actively according to the market [8]. Third Part: Relevant Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and foreign cotton price spread, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads, along with their historical data from different years [10][11][12][15][16][17][18][19][21][22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of the main May contract of eggs rose significantly today, with a maximum increase of 3.37% to over 3,525 yuan/ton. The position of the May contract increased instead of decreasing as the limit on positions approached before delivery. On the one hand, the recent increase in feed costs has raised the price center, and the average price of eggs in the main producing areas has recently risen to 3.3 yuan/jin. On the other hand, the market has been moving goods well recently, so the willingness to place buy orders has increased. However, considering the current situation, the current fundamental supply is relatively loose, and the increase in the May contract today is too large. Considering that the trading time for the May contract is limited as the limit on positions approaches in the future, funds may also close their positions in advance. Therefore, it is not recommended to chase the rise in eggs [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Information - The average price in the main producing areas today is 3.31 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.03 yuan/jin compared to the previous trading day; the average price in the main selling areas is 3.47 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. Most of the mainstream prices across the country remained stable today. The egg prices in major markets in Beijing remained stable, with the mainstream reference price in Beijing at 148 yuan/44 jin, and the mainstream wholesale prices in Shimen, Xinfadi, and Huilongguan at 148 yuan/44 jin. The mainstream wholesale price of eggs on Dayang Road was 148 yuan [stable], with both high and low prices depending on quality, normal arrivals, flexible transactions, and normal sales. Egg prices in Northeast Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang remained stable, prices in Shanxi and Hebei were mainly stable, the mainstream prices in Shandong were mostly stable, egg prices in Henan were stable, brown egg prices in Hubei were stable, and prices in Jiangsu and Anhui were mainly stable. There were some price fluctuations in local areas, and egg prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate, with normal sales [4]. - According to Zhuochuang data, the number of laying hens in production nationwide in February was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, higher than previously expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in February (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 43.3 million, with little change month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 5% [4]. - According to Zhuochuang data, the number of laying hens culled in the main producing areas nationwide in the week of March 5 was 10.94 million, an increase of 24% compared to the previous week. According to the monitoring and statistics of the culling age of culled hens in key producing areas across the country by Zhuochuang Information, the average culling age of culled hens in the week of March 5 was 502 days, an increase of 1 day compared to the previous week [5]. - According to Zhuochuang data, as of the week of March 5, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas nationwide was 7,304 tons, an increase of 1.5% compared to the previous week, which is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [5]. - According to Zhuochuang data, as of March 5, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was -0.29 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin compared to the previous week; on February 27, the expected profit from laying hen farming was -11.85 yuan/hen, a decrease of 1.27 yuan/jin compared to the previous week [5]. - According to Zhuochuang data, as of the week of March 5, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous week's inventory days [6]. - The average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days compared to the previous week [7]. - The price of culled hens across the country fell today, with the average price in the main producing areas at 5.07 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/jin compared to the previous trading day [7]. 2. Trading Logic - The price of the main May contract of eggs rose significantly today, with a maximum increase of 3.37% to over 3,525 yuan/ton. The position of the May contract increased instead of decreasing as the limit on positions approached before delivery. On the one hand, the recent increase in feed costs has raised the price center, and the average price of eggs in the main producing areas has recently risen to 3.3 yuan/jin. On the other hand, the market has been moving goods well recently, so the willingness to place buy orders has increased. However, considering the current situation, the current fundamental supply is relatively loose, and the increase in the May contract today is too large. Considering that the trading time for the May contract is limited as the limit on positions approaches in the future, funds may also close their positions in advance. Therefore, it is not recommended to chase the rise in eggs [8]. 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The short - term peanut spot price is relatively stable, with low supply and weak downstream demand. The peanut futures are oscillating at a low level, and the supply of oil peanuts is sufficient, but the warehouse receipt cost is relatively high. The peanut oil spot is stable, and the peanut meal has been stable recently. The oil mill's theoretical profit from pressing is good [3][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Disk**: PK604 closed at 8168 with a 0.39% increase, trading volume decreased by 18.91% to 969, and open interest increased by 0.11% to 7,262; PK610 closed at 8430 with a 1.33% increase, trading volume increased by 173.81% to 22,633, and open interest increased by 21.39% to 31,683; PK601 closed at 8418 with a 1.02% increase, trading volume increased by 1180.00% to 256, and open interest increased by 30.68% to 656 [1] - **Spot and Basis**: Shandong Jining spot price is 8000, Henan Nanyang is 7800, Shandong Linyi is 8000, Rizhao peanut meal is 3350, Rizhao soybean meal is 3210, peanut oil is 14300, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil is 8870. The basis of Shandong Jining is - 168, Henan Nanyang is - 368, Shandong Linyi is - 168, the difference between soybean meal and peanut meal is - 5, and the difference between peanut oil and soybean oil is 5430. The import price is 8600, Sudanese peanuts are 0, and Senegalese peanuts are 0 [1] - **Spread**: The spread of PK01 - PK04 is 250 with a 54 increase, PK04 - PK10 is - 262 with an 80 decrease, and PK10 - PK01 is 12 with a 26 increase [1] Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China are stable. In the Northeast, Jilin Fuyu 308 common peanuts are 4.5 yuan/jin, Liaoning Changtu is 4.5 yuan/jin, and Xingcheng Huayu 23 is 4.35 yuan/jin. In Henan, the price of Baisha common peanuts is 3.5 - 3.9 yuan/jin, and Shandong Junan is 3.4 yuan/jin. Imported Senegalese oil peanuts are 7200 yuan/ton, and commercial peanuts are 7700 yuan/ton. It is expected that the short - term peanut spot will be relatively weak [3] - Some peanut oil mills' purchase prices are stable, with the mainstream transaction price at 7200 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of the oil mill is 7850 yuan/ton. The soybean oil price has risen, and the peanut oil price is stable. The domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil is quoted at 14300 yuan/ton, and the small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is quoted at 16500 yuan/ton [3] - The Rizhao soybean meal spot has stabilized at 3190 yuan/ton, rebounding 10 yuan/ton from yesterday. The unit protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and the short - term peanut meal is strong, with the 48 - protein quoted at 3200 yuan/ton [4] Third Part: Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: The 05 peanut is oscillating at the bottom. Lightly hold a short - term long position on dips for 05 peanuts [7] - **Monthly Spread**: Wait and see [8] - **Options**: Sell pk605 - P - 7700 on dips [9] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including Shandong peanut spot price, peanut oil mill's pressing profit, peanut oil price, peanut spot and continuous contract basis, peanut 4 - 10 contract spread, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spread, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and iFinD Information [11][16][18]