大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 9 月 24 日 【粕类日报】市场变化有限 盘面窄幅震荡 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | 2025/9/24 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 0 1 | 2930 | 2 | 天津 | 4 0 | 1 0 | 3 0 | | 0 5 豆粕 | 2749 | 1 6 | 东莞 | -40 | -50 | 1 0 | | 0 9 | 2856 | 1 3 | 张家港 | -50 | -60 | 1 0 | | | | | 日照 | -30 | -30 | 0 | | 0 1 | 2395 | -52 | 南通 | 5 5 | 8 3 | -28 | | 菜粕 0 5 | 2319 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 09 月 24 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 【重要资讯】 1.据百年建筑调研，截至 9 月 23 日，样本建筑工地资金到位率为 59.54%，周环比 上升 0.15 个百分点。其中，非房建项目资金到位率为 61.34%，周环比上升 0.13 个百分 点；房建项目资金到位率为 50.99%，周环比上升 0.41 个百分点。本周建筑工地资金到 位率环比改善，其中，房建项目资金改善幅度大于非房建项目资金，假期前部分施工 2/ 10 大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3250 元（+10），北京敬业 3180 元（-10），上海鞍钢 热卷 3400 元（+10），天津河钢热卷 3320 元（-10）。 【交易策略】 今日受建材行业稳增长工作方案影响，下午黑色板块整体反弹 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 09 月 24 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 803.5 | 802.5 | 1.0 | I01-I05 | 20.5 | 22.5 | -2.0 | | DCE05 | 783.0 | 780.0 | 3.0 | I05-I09 | 21.0 | 20.0 | 1.0 | | DCE09 | 762.0 | 760.0 | 2.0 | I09-I01 | -41.5 | -42.5 | 1.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 783 | 787 | -4 | 853 | 42 | 65 | 85 | | 纽曼粉 | 790 | 796 | -6 | 845 | 35 | 57 | 77 | | 麦克粉 | 788 | 790 | -2 | 855 | 45 | 67 | 87 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the oil and fat industry dated September 24, 2025, focusing on the analysis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil markets [2][3] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - Soybean oil spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8310, 8430, and 8280 respectively, with basis of 330, 210, and 180, and the 2601 contract closed at 8100 with a gain of 14 [3] - Palm oil spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 9046, 9126, and 9226 respectively, with basis of -80, 0, and 100, and the 2601 contract closed at 9126 with a gain of 72 [3] - Rapeseed oil spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 10171, 10141, and 10141 respectively, with basis of 250, 220, and 220, and the 2601 contract closed at 9921 with a loss of 75 [3] Monthly Spread - The 1 - 5 monthly spread for soybean oil is 248 with a gain of 10, for palm oil is 182 with a loss of 16, and for rapeseed oil is 484 with a loss of 45 [3] Cross - Variety Spread - The 01 contract Y - P spread is -1026 with a loss of 89, OI - Y spread is 1821, and OI - P spread is 795 with a loss of 147, and the oil - meal ratio is 2.76 with a gain of 0.003 [3] Import Profit - The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia & Indonesia has a negative profit of -230 with a CNF price of 1090 for the 10 - week ship, and the Rotterdam's crude rapeseed oil has a negative profit of -559 with a FOB price of 1065 for the 10 - week ship [3] Weekly Commercial Inventory - As of the 38th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory is 123.6 million tons, palm oil is 58.5 million tons, and rapeseed oil is 58.6 million tons [3] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - Industry analyst Dorab Mistry said that Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may rise 27% to 5500 ringgit per ton in Q1 next year due to increased biodiesel consumption in Indonesia and productivity decline in plantations [5] Domestic Market - Palm oil futures closed slightly higher. As of September 19, 2025, the national commercial inventory decreased by 8.79% week - on - week. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and light - position long trials can be considered [5] - Soybean oil futures closed slightly higher. Last week, the soybean crushing volume was 236.04 million tons. As of September 19, 2025, the national commercial inventory decreased by 1.22% week - on - week. China's August import volume increased by 113.9% year - on - year. Long trials can be considered after the negative sentiment fades [6][8] - Rapeseed oil futures closed slightly lower. Last week, the coastal crushing volume was 4.8 million tons. As of September 19, 2025, the coastal inventory decreased by 3.93% week - on - week. China's August import volume increased by 18.7% year - on - year. The inventory continues to decline, which supports the price [8] Group 4: Trading Strategy Unilateral - The oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and long trials can be considered after the sentiment fades [10] Arbitrage - Wait and see [10] Options - Consider selling put - type strategies during pullbacks [10] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil from 2016 - 2025 [13][16]

股指期货数据日报 2025年9月24日 IM每日行情 IM行情概要 IM成交持仓 单位：点、手、亿元 单位：手 | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | | 成交额 +/- | | 持仓量 | +/- | 持仓保证金 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中证1000 | 7534.22 | 1.70% | 27,891 | | -11% | 4,944 | -2% | | | | | | IM2510 | 7472.00 | 3.06% | 68,987 | | -17% | 1,018 | -16% | 84,906 | -11,740 | | 152 | | IM2511 | 7384.40 | 3.13% | 8,349 | | 5 % | 122 | 7 % | 8,831 | 2,598 | | 1 6 | | IM2512 | 7303.20 | 3.21% | 185,454 | | -9% | 2,675 | -7% | 192,420 | -14,214 ...

供需双弱，原木价格趋稳 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 供应端，新西兰 9 月发运量预计与 8 月持平（约 166.6 万方），但 10 月后季节性减产或导致供应收缩；国内进口量 1-7 月同比下降 6.57%，主要受北美材和欧洲材进口减少拖累。需求端，房地产新开工面积 1-8月同比下降 20%，港口日均出库量 7-8 月回落至 6 万立 方米左右。整体供需双弱。 新西兰冬季减产（预计9-11月发运量下降）可能缓解进口压力，但国内需求复苏需依赖基建项目落地及地产政策效果。若房建资金持 续低迷，叠加海外发运恢复，库存或重新累积，价格承压。 【策略】 1.单边：供需双弱，成本支撑，建议观望为主。激进投资者可少量布局多单。 2.套利：观望 221 ...

需求疲弱，成本支撑，纸价低位震荡 银河化工 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 1 227/82/4 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 ◼ 基本情况①价格： 70g双胶纸企业含税均价为4742.9元/吨，环比持平。② 供应端：本期双胶纸产量20.9万吨，较上期增加0.4万吨， 增幅2.0%，产能利用率56.7%，较上期上升1.0%。行业盈利水平仍较低，工厂转产情况存在，部分新增装置生产趋稳，行业货源供应 有所增量。需求端疲弱：下游消费提振动力不足，部分印厂开工水平不高，用户采买积极性一般，刚需补单为主。③针叶浆现货含税均 价5650元/吨，环比上期下降0.8%；阔叶浆现货含税均价4191元/吨，环比上期上涨0.1%。 ...

高库存，高产量，纸价走势乏力 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 银河化工 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 ◼ 基本情况①价格：双胶纸产量20.5万吨，较上期增加1.0万吨，增幅5.1%，产能利用率55.7%，较上期上升2.8%。② 供应端：双胶纸产 量20.5万吨，较上期增加1.0万吨，增幅5.1%，产能利用率55.7%，较上期上升2.8%。行业盈利水平仍较低，工厂转产情况存在，部分 新增装置生产趋稳，行业货源供应有所增量。需求端疲弱：出版招标订单释放有限，零星低价压制市场预期。③针叶浆现货含税均价 5694元/吨，环比上期下降0.3 %；阔叶浆现货含税均价4189元/吨，环比上期持平。 【逻 ...

需求不振，原木上行乏力 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 【综合分析】 价格：本周日照3.9米中A辐射松价格750元/方，周环比平，太仓4米中A原木价格770元/方，环比平；供应：本周新西兰原木预计到 港量40.2万方，周环比+23.2%；针叶原木总库存294万方，周环比-1.01%；需求：本期13港原木日均出库量6.12万方，周环比-1.29%。 进口成本：本月辐射松CFR主力价114美金/JAS立方米，月环比-2%。 短期方面：成本端外盘价下行与人民币升值提供支撑，但需求端房建资金紧张、出库量疲软抑制反弹空 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The ferroalloy futures prices rebounded slightly on September 23. There is still high supply pressure on both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and short - side operations are recommended after rebounds [6]. - For trading strategies, it is suggested to take short - side operations on rallies due to high supply pressure, hold off on arbitrage, and sell straddle option combinations [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5698, with a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 2. The trading volume was 244,716, down 37,133, and the open interest was 200,009, down 12,607. The SM main contract closed at 5882, up 12 daily and down 62 weekly. The trading volume was 246,470, unchanged, and the open interest was 335,174, unchanged [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Ferrosilicon spot prices showed mixed trends, with some regions down 20 - 50 yuan/ton and Jiangsu up 100 yuan/ton. Silicomanganese spot prices were generally stable [4][6]. - **Basis/Spreads**: Ferrosilicon basis and spreads changed, with the SF - SM spread at - 184, up 38 daily and 60 weekly. Silicomanganese basis and spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Raw Materials**: Manganese ore spot prices in Tianjin Port were slightly weaker, and the prices of semi - carbonate and Australian lumps decreased by 0.1 - 0.2 yuan/ton degree. The prices of blue charcoal small materials in some regions increased [4]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Trading Strategies** - **Ferrosilicon**: After a sharp decline, it rebounded, but there is still high supply pressure. Short - side operations are recommended when approaching the resistance range of 5700 - 5800 [6]. - **Silicomanganese**: Although the cost side provides support, there is high supply pressure. Short - side operations are recommended when approaching the resistance range of 5900 - 6000 after the rebound [6]. - **Overall**: High supply pressure persists, short - side operations on rallies are recommended; hold off on arbitrage; sell straddle option combinations [7]. - **Important Information** - On the 23rd, the quotes of some manganese ores in Tianjin Port were provided [8]. - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 93% [8]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including the price trends of ferroalloy main contracts, basis, cost - profit, and monthly spreads, showing the historical data and changes of relevant indicators [9][11][13][15][16][21].