Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with short - term prices under pressure and in a volatile state. The aluminum market is affected by macro - economic factors and fundamentals, with short - term price pressure. The zinc market has sufficient supply in the medium - to - long term and weak consumption, with prices under pressure. The lead market has cost support, and the prices have a certain bottom - line. The nickel market has limited driving forces for prices and maintains a volatile state. The stainless steel market is affected by macro - expectations and cost factors, with short - term prices returning to the volatile range. The tin market is affected by supply and demand, with short - term prices following market sentiment. The industrial silicon market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long term, and the short - term may have a rebound. The polycrystalline silicon market may have a short - term correction and then be involved in the market with a long - position and protective put option strategy. The lithium carbonate market has high short - term speculative sentiment and high uncertainty, and investors are advised to wait for policy implementation [7][23][39][44][49][56][64][70][75][81]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,840 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its position by 2,049 lots to 496,800 lots. The spot premium of Shanghai copper was firm, and the spot premium in North China increased slightly [2]. - **Important Information**: The bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong continued to increase. Teck Resource's copper production in Q2 2025 decreased year - on - year, and its annual production guidance was lowered. The production schedule of white - goods in August decreased compared to the same period last year [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The impact of reciprocal tariffs may be relatively mild. The domestic smelters maintain high production, and the market is mainly disturbed by the expectation of copper tariffs. The inventory has increased, and the downstream procurement has slightly increased [5][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot supply and demand are weak, and it is under pressure and volatile in the short term [7]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2509 contract rose 33 yuan to 3,307 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 7,296 lots to 359,400 lots. The spot prices in various regions increased [9]. - **Related Information**: Some alumina enterprises did not receive environmental - control notices. The replacement projects of large - scale alumina enterprises in Shandong were put into production, and the roasting project in Gansu was about to produce. The alumina plant in Guinea had a strike [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the reduction of positions and decline, it stabilized in the short term. The operating capacity increased, and the theoretical surplus expanded. The inventory has been increasing, and attention should be paid to the changes in warehouse receipts [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The low warehouse receipts may drive the price to rebound. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [15][16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell 45 yuan/ton to 20,605 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 12,072 lots. The spot prices in various regions decreased [18]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased. Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and the price law was being revised. Huafeng Aluminum planned to purchase aluminum products [19][20][22]. - **Trading Logic**: The LME aluminum price fluctuated and then declined. The domestic market should pay attention to policy expectations. The inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the widening of the monthly spread [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is under pressure in the short term. Enter the long - spread position of 09 - 12 contracts after the spread converges due to inventory accumulation. Temporarily wait and see for options [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 15 yuan to 20,020 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 246 lots. The spot prices in various regions remained unchanged [26]. - **Related Information**: The production of cast aluminum alloy decreased, and the price law was being revised [26][27]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply is restricted by the shortage of scrap - aluminum sources, and the demand is affected by different orders. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost following the aluminum price [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is under pressure following the aluminum price. Consider the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunity when the spot discount to the futures is more than 300 yuan. Temporarily wait and see for options [31][32]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2509 fell 0.35% to 22,655 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 6,419 lots. The spot trading was average, and the premium was basically stable [34]. - **Related Information**: Heavy rainfall in North China did not affect the production and transportation of galvanized plants. The zinc concentrate production of some mines increased [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The zinc concentrate market is stable, and the port inventory has decreased. The domestic refined zinc production may increase. The consumption is in the off - season, and the downstream procurement is weak [37][39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable short - positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to setting stop - profit points. Buy put options. Temporarily wait and see for options [40][41]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2509 fell 0.24% to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 5,605 lots. The spot price was stable, and the downstream purchasing willingness improved slightly [42]. - **Related Information**: Heavy rainfall affected the raw - material transportation of recycled lead smelters [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead price has cost support, and the production of primary and recycled lead is affected. The terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved slightly [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable long - positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to macro - risks. Sell put options. Temporarily wait and see for options [45][47]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2509 fell 1,040 to 121,800 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 3,705 lots. The premiums of different brands of nickel changed [48]. - **Related Information**: The Fed may continue to cut interest rates. A large - scale nickel project in Southeast Sulawesi is expected to start in Q4 2025 [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The commodity atmosphere has weakened, and the nickel price has a limited decline. The supply and demand are weak in July and August, and the price lacks driving forces [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price follows the macro - atmosphere. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [50][52]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell 15 to 12,920 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 8,224 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were given [54]. - **Related Information**: The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project will drive the demand for stainless steel. A stainless - steel project of Guangqing Metal Technology is expected to be put into production in 2026 [55][56]. - **Logic Analysis**: The speculative atmosphere has cooled down. The external demand is restricted, and the internal demand is in the off - season. The cost has an impact on the price, and the market pays attention to macro - expectations [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price returns to the volatile range. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage [57][58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 266,660 yuan/ton, down 0.76%, and the position decreased by 2,289 lots. The spot price decreased, and the trading was restricted [60]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and a national industrial - information conference was convened [61]. - **Logic Analysis**: The LME inventory increased slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [62][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price follows the market sentiment. Temporarily wait and see for options [65][66]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon opened high and closed at 9,350 yuan/ton. The spot prices generally weakened [67][68]. - **Related Information**: It is rumored that an anti - involution meeting will be held in August [69]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply has increased, and the demand of some downstream products has changed. The social inventory has decreased. The price may decline in the medium - to - long term [70]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may rebound, and it is weak in the medium - to - long term. Hold the previous protective put options. Participate in the reverse - spread of 11 and 12 contracts, the cash - and - carry arbitrage of 11 and 10 contracts, and the butterfly spread strategy [71]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polycrystalline silicon futures rose sharply and closed at 50,805 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of polycrystalline silicon were given [73]. - **Related Information**: The price of photovoltaic silicon wafers continued to rise [74]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has declined, and the price may have a correction. The capacity integration is imperative, and the silicon - wafer price adjustment is completed [75]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may have a correction, and then participate in the market with a long - position and protective put option strategy. Hold the long - polycrystalline - silicon and short - industrial - silicon position for a long time and conduct the reverse - spread of far - month contracts of polycrystalline silicon [76]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract fell 4,440 to 70,840 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 78,853 lots. The spot prices decreased [77]. - **Important Information**: The sales of new - energy vehicles in the world increased in H1 2025, and China had a high share [78]. - **Logic Analysis**: The situation of the ore end is uncertain, and the price may test the support at 65,000 [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term speculative sentiment is strong, and the fundamentals are uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see. Enterprises with long - term contracts can consider cash - and - carry arbitrage. Temporarily wait and see for options [82][84].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Fuel Oil Daily Report, July 29, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Wu Xiaorong [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03108405 [2] - Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021537 [2] Group 2: Related Data - FU Main Contract Price on July 29, 2025: 2917, up 48 from the previous day [3] - FU Main Contract Position on July 29, 2025: 192,000 lots, down 9,000 lots from the previous day [3] - FU Warehouse Receipt on July 29, 2025: 110,980 tons, unchanged from the previous day [3] - LU Main Contract Price on July 29, 2025: 3640, up 95 from the previous day [3] - LU Main Contract Position on July 29, 2025: 70,000 lots, down 3,000 lots from the previous day [3] - LU Warehouse Receipt on July 29, 2025: 90 tons, unchanged from the previous day [3] - FU9 - 1 Spread on July 29, 2025: -2, up 8 from the previous day [3] - LU9 - 10 Spread on July 29, 2025: -9, down 7 from the previous day [3] - LU - FU Main Contract Spread on July 29, 2025: 723, up 47 from the previous day [3] - FU09 - Outer Market 08 Spread on July 29, 2025: -1.6, up 3.7 from the previous day [3] - LU09 - Outer Market 08 Spread on July 29, 2025: 7.3, up 4.0 from the previous day [3] Group 3: Market Research and Judgment Market Overview - Important Information: The crude oil processing volume of Mexico's Olmeca refinery at the Dos Bocas port soared to 233,000 barrels per day in June, doubling from May and reaching the highest processing volume since its operation. Pemex management announced this on July 28 [6] Market Judgment - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Domestic high - sulfur spot supply in the near - term remains abundant, and the near - month internal - external spread fluctuates at a low level below 0. Asian high - sulfur supply remains at a high level, and the Singapore high - sulfur spot premium continues to fluctuate at a low level. Russian refinery operations continued to decline in July, and near - term exports are expected to decline month - on - month. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has not worsened again but persists. Mexico's high - sulfur exports continue to decline due to the commissioning of Olmeca's second - stage unit and the decline in the operation of some refineries. The supply pressure of high - sulfur fuel oil in the third quarter is slightly less than expected. On the demand side, the peak season of refined oil products combined with the decline in high - sulfur cracking, and the increase in China's fuel oil consumption tax deduction are all beneficial to the growth of high - sulfur feedstock demand. The seasonal power - generation demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is gradually declining. Attention should be paid to the recent import logistics changes in Egypt and Saudi Arabia [7] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil spot premium fluctuates. The low - sulfur supply continues to recover, and there is no specific driver for downstream demand. Nigeria's RFCC unit has returned from maintenance, but its operation is still expected to be unstable. Attention should be paid to the near - term low - sulfur export logistics changes. South Sudan's external low - sulfur raw material supply has gradually returned to the level at the beginning of 2024, and new cargo loading tenders for August have been successively announced. Al - Zour's low - sulfur exports have rebounded to the high level during the normal operation of the refinery, and exports to the Singapore region have increased significantly. The low - sulfur market in China has abundant supply and stable demand. Attention should be paid to the near - term adjustment and issuance rhythm of low - sulfur quotas [7] - Other Information: FU warehouse receipts are 110,980 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; LU warehouse receipts are 90 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. In the Singapore paper market, the high - sulfur Aug/Sep monthly spread is -2.8 to -3.0 US dollars per ton, and the low - sulfur Aug/Sep monthly spread is 2.3 to 2.0 US dollars per ton [7] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures: Singapore high - sulfur spot premium, Singapore low - sulfur spot premium, Singapore high - and low - sulfur spread, Singapore LSFO - GO, high - sulfur fuel oil cracking, low - sulfur fuel oil cracking [10]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a Black Metal R & D report on ferroalloys dated July 29, 2025 [2] - The research analyst is Zhou Tao, with relevant qualification numbers and contact information provided [3] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF main contract closed at 6110, up 270 daily and 236 weekly, with trading volume of 726,721 (down 491,602) and open interest of 196,312 (up 769) [4] - SM main contract closed at 6212, up 184 daily and 200 weekly, with trading volume of 1,009,206 (down 238,021) and open interest of 347,380 (down 6,026) [4] Spot - For ferrosilicon, 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and some other regions had price increases, with Inner Mongolia and Ningxia at 5,650 (up 50 daily and 250 weekly), and Jiangsu and Tianjin at 5,850 [4] - For silicomanganese, 6517 silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and other regions also saw price hikes, with Inner Mongolia at 5,800 (up 100 daily and 100 weekly), and Jiangsu at 6,100 [4] Basis/Spread - For ferrosilicon, Inner Mongolia - main had a basis of -460 (down 220 daily and up 14 weekly), and SF - SM spread was -102 (up 86 daily and 36 weekly) [4] - For silicomanganese, Inner Mongolia - main had a basis of -412 (down 84 daily and 100 weekly), and Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 50 (unchanged daily and up 50 weekly) [4] Raw Materials - For manganese ore in Tianjin, Australian lump was 40 (unchanged daily and up 0.3 weekly), South African semi - carbonate was 34.8 (unchanged daily and up 0.1 weekly), and Gabon lump was 40 (up 0.5 daily and 0.7 weekly) [4] - For semi - coke small pieces, prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [4] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term strength, but due to recent sharp and volatile market, no chasing of rising prices [7] - Arbitrage: Close the long ferrosilicon and short silicomanganese position, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the basis is low [7] - Options: Hold off [7] Market Analysis - Ferrosilicon: On July 29, spot prices were firm with slight increases in some regions. Supply increased slightly with rising prices. Demand was supported by high steel mill output due to good steel profits. Market sentiment was boosted by the rebound of coking coal, but it's not advisable to chase the rising prices [6] - Silicomanganese: On July 29, manganese ore and silicomanganese spot prices were firm. Supply also increased slightly with price increases. Demand was supported by good steel profits, and the cost of port manganese ore was relatively strong. The fundamentals were healthy, but due to market volatility, no chasing of rising prices [6] Important Information - On July 29, Tianjin Port had semi - carbonate at 35.5 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump at 40.5 - 41 yuan/ton degree, CML Australian lump at 41.5 - 42 yuan/ton degree, and South32 Australian lump at 40 - 40.5 yuan/ton degree [8] - On July 29, Hebei steel mills raised the purchase price of coke, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton [8] Group 4: Related Attachments Price Charts - There are charts showing the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread of main contracts SF - SM, the monthly spread of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese (main contract - Inner Mongolia), and the spot prices of silicomanganese and Inner Mongolia silicomanganese [11][15][16] Cost and Profit Charts - There are charts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese cost and profit, including production costs and profits in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi [19][22] - For ferrosilicon, production costs in Inner Mongolia were 5,421 with a profit of 79, and in Ningxia were 5,274 with a profit of 226 [19] - For silicomanganese, production costs in Inner Mongolia were 5,747 with a profit of 3, and in Guangxi were 6,241 with a loss of 521 [22]

Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Daily Report - Report Date: July 29, 2025 - Report Author: Commodity Research Institute, Black Research and Development Report [1][2] Core Data Futures Prices - DCE01: 770.5, up 13.5 from yesterday; DCE05: 749.0, up 11.0; DCE09: 798.0, up 12.0 [3] - I01 - I05: 21.5, up 2.5; I05 - I09: -49.0, down 1.0; I09 - I01: 27.5, down 1.5 [3] Spot Prices - PB powder: 770, down 12 from the day before yesterday; Newman powder: 766, down 11; Mac powder: 756, down 10 [3] - The optimal deliverable is PB powder, with a standard - converted price of 811, 01 - factory - warehouse basis of 46, 05 - factory - warehouse basis of 65, and 09 - factory - warehouse basis of 17 [3] Price Spreads - Spot variety spreads: e.g., Carajás fines - PB powder: 99, down 1; Newman powder - Jinbuba powder: 23, down 1 [3] - Import profits: e.g., Carajás fines: -4, up 4; Newman powder: 10, up 9 [3] Indexes - Platts 62% iron ore price: 100.1, down 2.5; Platts 65% iron ore price: 114.6, down 2.2; Platts 58% iron ore price: 87.4, down 2.1 [3] - Inner - outer market US - dollar spreads: e.g., SGX main - DCE01: 8.8, down 0.6; SGX main - DCE05: 11.2, down 0.8; SGX main - DCE09: 5.2, down 0.4 [3] Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing data such as the basis of the optimal deliverable against different contracts, cross - period arbitrage spreads, import profits of different iron ore varieties, price spreads between different iron ore products, and inner - outer market US - dollar spreads [8][9][10]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 7 月 29 日 【粕类日报】市场变动有限 盘面震荡运行 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/7/29 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 0 1 | | 3028 | -13 | 天津 | -90 | -90 | 0 | | 豆粕 | 0 5 | 2744 | - 7 | 东莞 | -140 | -150 | 1 0 | | 0 9 | | 2983 | - 7 | 张家港 | -140 | -160 | 2 0 | | | | | | 日照 | -130 | -150 | 2 0 | | 0 1 | | 2379 | -14 | 南通 | -14 ...

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 07 月 29 日 | | | | 航运日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 第一部分 | | | 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | | | | | | | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | 日报 | | | | | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2508 | 2,111.0 | -72.2 | -3.31% | 3,024.0 | 19.76% | 5,926.0 | -19.58% | | EC2510 | 1,460.0 | -42.8 | -2.85% | 41,659.0 | -25.63% | 50,726.0 | 0.06% | | EC2512 | 1,735.0 | -2.8 | -0.16% | 4,024.0 | -41.08% | 8,131.0 | -5.44% | | EC2602 | 1,521.3 ...

沥青日报 2025 年 7 月 29 日 大宗商品研究所 沥青研发报告 沥青日报 | 第一部分 | | 相关数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 2025/07/29 | 2025/07/28 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货价格与持仓 | | | | | | BU2509 （主力） | 3619 | 3569 | 50 | 1.40% | | BU2510 | 3598 | 3542 | 56 | 1.58% | | BU2511 | 3556 | 3499 | 57 | 1.63% | | SC2509 | 515.0 | 505.9 | 9.1 | 1.80% | | Brent首行 | 70.06 | 68.84 | 1.2 | 1.77% | | 主力合约持仓/万手 | 14.2 | 16.2 | -2.1 | -12.73% | | 主力合约成交/万手 | 20.9 | 22.5 | -1.6 | -7.13% | | 仓单数量/吨 | 82180 | 82180 | 0 | 0.00% | | 基差月差 | | | | | | BU10 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "【生猪日报】供应继续承压 盘面震荡运行" [5] - Report Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The supply of live pigs continues to face pressure, and the spot price has limited upside potential with a risk of decline due to high inventory levels [3][6]. - The futures market has shown a decline, influenced by a high - level meeting with limited impact, and the price increase is restricted by supply and production pressure [6]. - The current price reflects the fundamentals of the pig market, with limited overall changes expected [6]. Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Prices - Today, the average spot price of live pigs was 13.23 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in most regions declined, with Inner Mongolia seeing the largest drop of 0.2 yuan/kg [3]. Futures Prices - Among futures contracts, LH07 rose 525 points to 14,525, while LH01 fell 95 points to 14,400 [3]. Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices dropped from 440 to 429, while sow prices remained unchanged at 1628 [3]. Breeding Profits - Self - breeding and self - raising profits decreased from 90.89 to 62.16 yuan/head, and profits from purchasing piglets decreased from - 18.66 to - 71.39 yuan/head [3]. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume decreased from 137,328 to 136,628 heads [3]. Contract Spreads - The spread of LH7 - 9 increased from - 125 to 375, and LH9 - 1 increased from - 370 to - 250 [3]. Size - based Pig Price Spreads - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs decreased from 0.41 to 0.4, and the spread between large pigs and medium - sized pigs increased from 0.06 to 0.1 [3]. Group 5: Market Analysis - Supply: After the previous price increase, the market supply situation has improved, but the overall supply remains relatively abundant. Scale enterprises may face some pressure to sell, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average [3]. - Price Outlook: The upside potential of spot prices is limited, and there is still pressure for a decline. The futures market is expected to have support, but near - month contracts may face pressure [6]. Group 6: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long on far - month contracts at low prices and short near - month contracts at high prices [7]. - Arbitrage: Conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage [7]. - Options: Sell far - month put options [7].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Apple Daily Report [2] - Date: July 29, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji apple price index: 110.58, down 0.76 from the previous trading day [3] - 6 - fruit average wholesale price: 7.16, up 0.02 from the previous trading day [3] Futures Prices - AP01: 7792, down 103 from yesterday's close [3] - AP05: 7846, down 61 from yesterday's close [3] - AP10: 7908, down 144 from yesterday's close [3] Basis - Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01: 108, up 103 from the previous trading day [3] - Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP05: 54, up 61 from the previous trading day [3] - Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10: - 8.0, up 144 from the previous trading day [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of July 23, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in major producing areas was 70.45 tons, a decrease of 10.15 tons from last week, with similar shipment speed and basically the same as last year [4] - In June 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 1.87 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.32% and a year - on - year increase of 6.37%. The cumulative import volume from January to June 2025 was 6.90 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.63%. The export volume in June 2025 was about 3.70 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55% [6] - Yesterday, the overall apple market in the producing areas was stable, with stable prices. Cold - storage merchants were still highly motivated to ship, and the number of purchasing merchants increased slightly. The quality of early - maturing apples in the western producing areas was average, and prices varied greatly according to quality [6] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants was 0.7 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin from last week [6] - The mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Shandong was stable. The price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's film - red apples was 3.0 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and striped apples were 3.0 - 4.2 yuan/jin. Merchants' film - red apples were 3.8 - 4.2 yuan/jin, and striped apples were 3.8 - 4.8 yuan/jin. The mainstream price of 70 fruit was 2.5 - 2.7 yuan/jin, and the third - grade fruit was 2.5 - 2.6 yuan/jin, with the uniform - grade goods priced at 3.0 - 3.3 yuan/jin [7] Trading Logic - In the spot market, the current inventory is low, the market demand is in the off - season, and the spot shipment is average. The new - season apple production is expected to change little from this season. Before the new - season apples are listed, the supply is low and the demand is weak, with little supply - demand contradiction, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Generally, adopt a long - on - dips strategy [9] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - Options: Sell put options [9] Group 4: Related Attachments - There are 10 related figures in the report, including the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, the spread between different AP contracts, the arrival volume of apples in wholesale markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple shipment volume [13][15][21]

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts were 14025, 13965, and 13925 respectively, with price changes of -40, -35, and -150 [3]. - The closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts were 20005, 20190, and 19995 respectively, with price changes of -160, 0, and -240 [3]. - The price of CCIndex3128B was 15580 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the price of CY IndexC32S was 20720 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [3]. - The price of Cot A was 78.70 cents/pound, down 0.50 cents; the price of FCY IndexC33S was 22116 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [3]. - The price of (FC Index):M: to - port price was 77.63 cents/pound, down 0.47 cents; the price of Indian S - 6 was 54000 rupees/candy, unchanged [3]. - The price of polyester staple fiber was 7450 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the price of pure polyester yarn T32S was 11130 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The price of viscose staple fiber was 12700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of viscose yarn R30S was 17250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 60, down 5; the 5 - 9 month spread was 40, up 115; the 9 - 1 month spread was - 100, down 110 [3]. - The 1 - 5 month spread of cotton yarn was - 185, down 160; the 5 - 9 month spread was 195, up 240; the 9 - 1 month spread was - 10, down 80 [3]. - The CY01 - CF01 spread was 5980, down 120; the CY05 - CF05 spread was 6225, up 35; the CY09 - CF09 spread was 6070, down 90 [3]. - The 1% tariff - based internal - external cotton price spread was 1673 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan; the sliding - scale tariff - based internal - external cotton price spread was 1021 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [3]. - The internal - external yarn price spread was - 1396 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of July 27, the budding rate of U.S. cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states was 80%, 6 percentage points slower than the same period last year and the same as the five - year average [6]. - As of July 27, the boll - setting rate of U.S. cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states was 44%, 8 percentage points slower than the same period last year and 3 percentage points faster than the five - year average [6]. - As of July 27, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states was 55%, 5 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 5 percentage points higher than the five - year average [6]. - As of July 26, the total harvesting progress of Brazilian cotton was 21.7%, up 5 percentage points from the previous week and 3.1 percentage points slower than the same period last year [6]. - As of the week of July 28, 2025, the weekly cotton listing volume in India was 1.15 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64%; the cumulative cotton listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 5.093 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [7]. Trading Logic - U.S. cotton may be slightly weaker in the short term due to the increase in the actual sown area at the end of June and the alleviation of drought in the main producing areas, but there are potential positive factors such as trade negotiations and weather trading [8]. - The current cotton commercial inventory and import volume are at low levels in the same period over the years, which may lead to a slightly tight supply at the end of the season. The issuance of sliding - scale tariff quotas and the Sino - U.S. trade and tariff situation will affect the market [8]. - Considering that the downstream needs time to digest the current price, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate at the current level in the short term [8]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10]. - Options: Sell put options [12][16]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Recently, Zhengzhou cotton has been slightly weaker, and the pure - cotton yarn market has mainly maintained stable quotations. The transaction price is approaching the quotation. The downstream has insufficient orders and mainly replenishes inventory for rigid demand [12]. - The overall demand in the pure - cotton grey fabric market is weak, and the fabric price is mainly stable and weak. Some weaving factories in local areas have improved orders recently, but the order volume is small [12]. Group 3: Options - Today, the 10 - day HV of cotton was 10.0386, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF509 - C - 13800 was 13.6%, that of CF509 - P - 13600 was 11.8%, and that of CF509 - P - 13000 was 11.9% [14]. - Today, the position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.8595, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6113. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased [15]. - Option strategy: Sell put options [16].