1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, iron ore prices trended strongly. In the third quarter, global iron ore shipments contributed significant increments, with the mainstream mines' increments mainly from Brazil, while Australia's shipments were basically flat year-on-year. Non-mainstream shipments remained at a high level year-on-year and are expected to continue contributing certain increments. On the demand side, in August, infrastructure investment decreased by 5.9% year-on-year and continued to weaken rapidly month-on-month; manufacturing investment decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry slowed significantly, failing to sustain the high growth in the first half of the year. Compared with the first half of the year, the demand for construction steel continued to be weak, and the recent month-on-month decline in steel demand in the manufacturing industry has suppressed the current terminal steel demand. Overseas, from January to July, the consumption of iron elements increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with India's crude steel production increasing by 9.8% year-on-year, and overseas crude steel demand remained at a relatively high level. Overall, terminal demand is weakening in China while overseas steel use maintains high growth, and the valuation of iron ore remains high among the black commodities. The year-on-year increase in domestic terminal steel demand in August may be the lowest point of the year, and the steel demand in the domestic manufacturing industry is expected to gradually recover in September. However, the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, and as market expectations fluctuate at high prices, iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels [3]. - Trading strategies: For single positions, focus on high-level hedging of spot; for arbitrage, adopt a wait-and-see approach; for options, also adopt a wait-and-see approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Core Logic**: Terminal demand is showing a pattern of weakening in China and high growth overseas. The valuation of iron ore remains high, but prices may face pressure at high levels due to the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter not being priced in by the market [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single positions - high-level hedging of spot; Arbitrage - wait-and-see; Options - wait-and-see [3] 3.2 Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Global Iron Ore Shipments**: Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments has been 30.65 million tons, an increase of 0.7%/8.3 million tons year-on-year. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments were 17.62 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%/8.4 million tons, and Brazil's weekly shipments were 7.42 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%/8 million tons. In terms of the shipments of mainstream mines in Australia and Brazil, since the beginning of 2025, Rio Tinto's shipments have decreased by 1.4%/3.2 million tons year-on-year, BHP's by 1.5%/3.1 million tons, FMG's have increased by 4.4%/6 million tons, and VALE's by 0.1%/0.2 million tons. The overall supply of the four major mines has been basically flat year-on-year. Last week, the shipments of mainstream mines in Brazil rebounded significantly as port maintenance ended and port shipments resumed. In the third quarter, most of the increments of mainstream mines came from Brazil, while Australia's shipments were basically flat year-on-year [11]. - **Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipments**: Since 2025, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments has been 5.6 million tons, an increase of 4.4%/8.7 million tons year-on-year. The weekly average of non - mainstream iron ore shipments in Australia has been 2.34 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%/8 million tons, and that in Brazil has been 2.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12%/8.2 million tons. A $10 increase in the average of the Platts Index corresponds to an increase of about 30 - 40 million tons in non - mainstream ore production (annualized). Since the third quarter, non - mainstream ore shipments have improved, and the rapid decrease in shipments in the first half of the year has turned into an increase. In September, shipments remained at a high level year-on-year and are expected to continue contributing certain increments. Currently, the profit from non - mainstream shipments is good, and some mines may participate in hedging [13]. - **Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore decreased slightly month-on-month, and the amount of ships waiting at ports remained the same, but the steel mills replenished their stocks significantly, with the inventory increasing significantly year-on-year, resulting in a month-on-month increase of nearly 3 million tons in the total domestic inventory of imported iron ore. Since August, the total domestic inventory of iron elements has been continuously increasing, with an accumulation of about 9 million tons, mainly due to the high level of hot metal production and the decline in terminal steel demand, leading to a continuous weakening of the supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore. From the perspective of supply - demand projection, hot metal production is expected to remain at a high level in September, but the growth rate may slow down. With the month-on-month improvement in the steel demand of terminal manufacturing, the port inventory of imported iron ore is expected to remain balanced [23]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: Since the third quarter of 2025, domestic hot metal production has increased by 3.9%/7.3 million tons year-on-year, and crude steel production has increased by 4.6%/10 million tons year-on-year. Among them, the apparent demand for building materials has decreased by 7.1%/7 million tons year-on-year, the apparent demand for non - building materials has decreased by 0.6%/0.7 million tons year-on-year, and domestic crude steel consumption (excluding exports) has decreased by 3.7%/7.8 million tons year-on-year. Recently, the terminal steel inventory in China has been increasing month-on-month, while it was decreasing during the same period last year. Compared with the steel demand in the first half of the year, the steel demand in the manufacturing industry increased by more than 7% year-on-year in the first half, but has weakened relatively quickly on a month-on-month basis since the third quarter, suppressing the current terminal steel demand. In terms of infrastructure, in August, the year-on-year growth rate of large - scale infrastructure investment was - 6.4% (previous value - 1.9%), and that of small - scale infrastructure investment was - 5.9% (previous value - 5.1%), with infrastructure investment continuing to weaken rapidly month-on-month. In terms of manufacturing, in August, the year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing investment was - 1.3% (previous value - 0.3%), and the growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry slowed significantly, failing to sustain the high growth in the first half of the year. The year-on-year increase in domestic terminal steel demand in August may be the lowest point of the year, and the steel demand in the domestic manufacturing industry is expected to recover on a month-on-month basis in September [29]. - **Overseas Demand**: From January to July, the consumption of overseas iron elements increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with India's crude steel production increasing by 9.8% year-on-year, and overseas crude steel demand remained at a relatively high level [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal spot market sentiment has improved recently, with prices generally rising and the auction non - winning rate decreasing. Coke sentiment has also improved, with price increase expectations. Future coal mine over - production inspections may support coking coal prices, and domestic coking coal production will be restricted, but imported coal can provide some supplement. The upside of prices depends on demand, and currently, steel demand restricts the upside of raw material prices [4]. - For trading strategies, in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust. In the medium term, due to policy disturbances on the supply side, it is recommended to buy on dips, but be cautious about the upside. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term oscillation adjustment. In the medium term, with policy disturbances on the supply side, maintain the idea of buying on dips, but be cautious about the upside [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6]. - **Options**: Wait and see [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Coking Coal - **Supply**: Future coal mine over - production inspections may support coking coal prices. Domestic coking coal production will be restricted by anti - involution and over - production inspections, and it is difficult to return to the high point of the first half of the year and will be lower than the same period last year. However, imported coal can provide some supplement [4]. - **Demand**: Steel demand has resilience but no obvious bright spots, and the demand and profit situation of steel restrict the upside of coking coal prices [4]. Coke - **Supply**: Coke production has remained basically stable this week. Although recent profits have declined and some coking enterprises are in the red, they have not reached the point of active production cuts [8][9]. - **Demand**: Pig iron production has rebounded slightly this week, and it is expected to remain high in the near future. Downstream steel mills will continue to replenish coke stocks before the National Day holiday, and there are also some traders entering the market to buy, so the overall demand for coke has resilience [9]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Coking Coal - **Spot Price**: The coking coal market sentiment has improved this week, with the auction non - winning rate significantly decreasing, downstream procurement enthusiasm increasing, and most coal types rising by 30 - 80 yuan/ton. It is expected that the coking coal spot price will continue to be strong next week [8]. - **Domestic Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has continued to rise slightly this week, and it is expected to remain basically unchanged next week [8]. - **Imported Mongolian Coal**: The number of customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port has continued to rise this week, and it is expected to remain at a high level next week [8]. - **Demand**: Coke production has remained basically stable this week [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal has increased this week, with downstream coking enterprises replenishing stocks in advance, mine inventories decreasing, port inventories increasing, and the inventory pressure at the port not being large [8]. Coke - **Spot Price**: The second - round price cut of coke has been implemented this week. With the rise of coking coal prices, the cost support for coke is obvious, and the market sentiment has also improved. It is expected that leading coking enterprises in mainstream areas will propose a price increase next week, and the probability of implementation is relatively high [9]. - **Supply**: Coke production has remained basically stable this week [9]. - **Demand**: Pig iron production has rebounded slightly this week, and it is expected to remain high in the near future. Downstream steel mills will continue to replenish coke stocks before the National Day holiday, and there are also some traders entering the market to buy, so the overall demand for coke has resilience [9]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke has increased this week, and the overall supply and demand of coke are relatively balanced [9]. - **Profit**: According to Steel Union data, the average national profit per ton of coke is - 17 yuan/ton, with different profitability in different regions [9].

华北玉米即将上市 盘面底部震荡 银河农产品 研究员：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 11 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 玉米：美玉米9月报告下调单产，但是面积上调，产量创新高，但后期可能会下调单产，美玉米本周420美分/蒲附近震荡，但美玉米供应宽松，短期美玉米窄 幅震荡，预计美玉米12合约400美分/蒲支撑较强。截止9月16日，玉米拍卖498万吨，成交158万吨，成交率32%。进口玉米持续拍卖，华北玉米陆续上市，但 天气影响，国内玉米现货偏弱。目前市场焦点转向华北市场，市场预期华北玉米9月底大量上市大概率2200元/吨附近 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with potential for price increases if downstream demand recovers more than expected from late September to October. The black - metal sector is supported by the approaching peak season and pre - National Day stockpiling [4]. - For coking coal and coke, short - term volatility adjustment is expected, and a mid - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The upside potential is limited by steel demand and profit [10][12]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, despite potential recovery in domestic manufacturing steel demand in September [13]. - Ferroalloys are expected to trade at the bottom, with silicon iron and manganese silicon both showing bottom - oscillating trends [16][17]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: In August 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 16.819 million units, a 12.3% year - on - year increase; refrigerator production was 9.453 million units, a 2.5% increase; washing - machine production was 10.132 million units, a 1.6% decrease; and color - TV production was 18.016 million units, a 3.2% decrease. As of September 18, the total volume of overhauled blast furnaces in 16 sample steel mills in Shanxi was 2010m³, with an overhaul volume ratio of 4.7%, and the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 12.3% higher than the same period last year [2]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shanghai, the price of rebar was 3240 yuan (- 20), and in Beijing, it was 3170 yuan (- 20). The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3420 yuan (-), and in Tianjin, it was 3340 yuan (-) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was volatile at night. Iron - water production increased slightly this week, and the production of the five major steel products was divided. Due to losses, EAF production decreased, and long - process production lines also switched production. Rebar production decreased significantly, while other varieties continued to increase. Demand is in the off - season, and the reduction in rebar production led to inventory depletion, while other varieties accumulated inventory. Steel demand is expected to recover slightly next week, and the black - metal sector is supported by the peak season and pre - holiday stockpiling [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel prices will be volatile and bullish. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Options: Buy out - of - the - money options on RB01 [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 84.7%, a 1.9% increase from the previous week. The daily output of raw coal was 1.9 million tons, a 44,000 - ton increase. The raw - coal inventory was 4.7 million tons, a 32,000 - ton decrease. The daily output of clean coal was 761,000 tons, a 33,000 - ton increase, and the clean - coal inventory was 2.328 million tons, a 217,000 - ton decrease. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%, a 0.15 - percentage - point increase from last week [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Coking coal and coke were volatile at night. The coking coal spot market sentiment is good, with prices rising and auction flow rates decreasing. Downstream enterprises will stockpile raw materials before the National Day, supporting spot prices. The upside potential is limited by steel demand and profit [10][12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Short - term volatility adjustment, mid - term buying on dips. Arbitrage: Enter the long 1 - 5 spread of coking coal on dips. Options: Hold. Futures - cash: Hold [12]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and reduced the quantitative tightening scale. On September 18, the national main - port iron - ore trading volume was 974,000 tons, a 23% decrease from the previous day [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore was narrowly volatile at night. In the third quarter, global iron - ore shipments increased significantly, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas steel demand remained high. Iron - ore prices may face pressure at high levels [13]. - **Trading Strategies**: Not fully provided in the report, but the analyst's information is given [15]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 18th, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore (Mn36.02%) at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton - degree. Jupiter announced the October 2025 manganese - ore shipping price to China [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Silicon - iron spot prices were stable on the 18th. Supply rumors were false, and supply remained high. Demand was supported by steel production. Manganese - silicon spot prices were stable, with alloy - factory production increasing slightly. Demand was affected by the decline in rebar production, but cost was supported by high - priced manganese ore [16]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Bottom - oscillating. Arbitrage: Hold. Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations on rallies [17][19].

新季花生涨跌互现 盘面底部震荡 181/181/181 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 10 | 银河农产品 研究员：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 花生策略推荐 ◼ 期权策略：可以尝试卖出pk511-P-7600期权策略。 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 10 3 GALAXY FUTURES 68/84/105 210/1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International market: Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is entering the accumulation phase. Although the recent increase in Brazilian sugar production has a bearish impact on the price, considering the current low international sugar price and the fact that the bearish factors have basically materialized, and the Brazilian ethanol - to - sugar price has reached 16.14 cents per pound, there is strong support for low - price sugar, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [4]. - Domestic market: In August, China's sugar imports remained high, domestic sugar inventory was low, and the sales - to - production ratio was high. The domestic market is greatly affected by the trend of foreign sugar. Both foreign and Zhengzhou sugar are at low levels, and domestic sugar inventory is low with a firm basis. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will likely fluctuate within a range and rebound in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side trading**: The foreign sugar price has fallen to a low level and is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. The Zhengzhou sugar price has also fallen to a low level, with limited downward space. However, if Zhengzhou sugar increases in positions and breaks through the previous low, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [4]. - **Options**: Wait and see [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Change** - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the global sugar supply gap will be significantly reduced to 231,000 tons compared with 4.879 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Global sugar production is expected to reach 180.593 million tons, an increase of 5.419 million tons from the previous season, mainly due to the production growth in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Global consumption is expected to reach 180.824 million tons, an increase of 771,000 tons. The global sugar trade volume is expected to remain stable, with an export volume of 63.89 million tons and an import demand of 63.768 million tons. The ending inventory/consumption ratio is expected to drop to 50.95%, about 10% lower than six seasons ago [6]. - **Brazilian Sugar Production Situation** - **Double - week situation in the second half of August**: In the second half of August, the sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region of Brazil increased. The cane crushing volume was 50.061 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.68%; the sugar - making ratio was 54.2%, a year - on - year increase of 5.42%; the sugar production was 3.872 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.21% [10]. - **Accumulated situation by the second half of August**: The accumulated cane crushing volume was 403.942 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%; the accumulated sugar - making ratio was 52.76%, a year - on - year increase of 3.67%; the accumulated sugar production was 26.759 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The Brazilian ethanol - to - sugar price has reached 16.14 cents per pound, providing strong support for the raw sugar price [17]. - **Situation in Other Countries** - **Thailand**: In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the sugar production was 10.05 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons), and exports from January to June 2025 were 3.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 820,000 tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in production [20]. - **India**: In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the sugar production was about 26.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. The 2025/26 season is expected to have a restorative increase in production, with an estimated total production of 34.9 million tons. After meeting domestic consumption of 28.4 million tons, there will be a surplus of about 12 million tons (including 5.5 million tons of carry - over inventory). Even if 5 million tons of sugar are used for ethanol production, the net sugar production will still reach 29.9 million tons, and about 7 million tons will be carried over as ending inventory. This season may export about 2 million tons of sugar [23]. - **Domestic Sugar Market Situation** - **Domestic sugar production in the 2025/26 season**: The domestic sugar is in an increasing production cycle, with an expected production of about 11 million tons. The first sugar factory in Inner Mongolia started production on September 8, 4 days earlier than the previous year. The estimated sugar production in Inner Mongolia in the 2025/26 season is 700,000 - 750,000 tons. In Yunnan, about 51 - 52 sugar factories are expected to start production in the 2025/26 season, with the first factory likely to start in mid - to - late October if there are no special circumstances [27]. - **Import situation**: The import profit is rising, driving a strong import expectation. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 62,700 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import was 2.6121 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 121,000 tons, or 4.86%. As of August in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative import was 4.0739 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 277,200 tons, or 6.37% [38]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Not provided in the given content, only some data charts are presented, and no specific analysis or summary content is available.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For ferrosilicon, supply is relatively stable, demand is limited by slow steel inventory reduction, and the cost side provides support. The slow progress of steel inventory reduction is the biggest risk point [5]. - For silicomanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom this week [5]. - The trading strategies include a bottom - oscillating trend for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling straddle combinations on rallies for options [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply is stable with a slight increase in production. The rumor of supply contraction was refuted. Demand is affected by poor steel inventory reduction and low profits, and there is limited room for further growth in hot metal production. The cost side is supported by strong thermal coal prices and stable - to - strong electricity prices in ferroalloy production areas [5]. - **Silicomanganese**: Supply decreases slightly, but the absolute production volume is still high compared to the same period in previous years. Demand is dragged down by the continuous compression of steel profits and the decline in steel production. The cost side is supported by the relatively low manganese ore port inventory compared to last year and stable overseas mine quotes [5]. Strategies - **Single - side**: Bottom - oscillating [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [5]. - **Options**: Sell straddle combinations on rallies [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis No relevant content provided. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 2.4102 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0047 million tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types is 19,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons, and for silicomanganese is 121,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 900 tons [10]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 36.84%, unchanged from the previous week, and the weekly supply is 113,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 45.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7%, and the weekly supply is 208,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,400 tons [11]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of September 19, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 63,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,600 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 198,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 32,100 tons [12]. Cost and Profit - **Silicomanganese**: The production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou are 5,788 yuan/ton, 5,901 yuan/ton, 6,363 yuan/ton, and 6,102 yuan/ton respectively, all showing losses. The overall cost in the north is 5,824 yuan/ton, and in the south is 6,209 yuan/ton [30]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, and Gansu are 5,559 yuan/ton, 5,612 yuan/ton, 5,624 yuan/ton, 5,583 yuan/ton, and 5,633 yuan/ton respectively, all in the loss - making range [41]. Other Data - **Manganese Ore Price**: The price of South African Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port and the CIF quotes of South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps are presented in the report [39]. - **Carbon and Electricity Prices**: The prices of Fugu blue charcoal small materials, Yulin thermal coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices are shown [49][52]. - **Steel Mill Bidding Prices**: The monthly procurement prices of Hebei representative steel mills for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are included [55]. - **Monthly Output**: The monthly output and cumulative output of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon in China are provided [61][63]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly net import volume of manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of ferrosilicon in China are presented [68][69]. - **Metal Magnesium Demand**: The price of Fugu metal magnesium and the cumulative production of metal magnesium in Yulin, Shaanxi are shown [71]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferrosilicon in alloy plants and steel mills, the inventory available days of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in steel mills, and the manganese ore inventory in alloy plants, steel mills, and ports are included [74][76][77].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans/meal, the monthly supply - demand report has limited impact. The market rebounds due to previous full reaction to negative factors and macro - impacts. There is support for prices, but the upside is limited. Domestic soybeans have a loose supply, good demand, and large inventory pressure, with prices expected to fluctuate [4][6]. - For sugar, internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is accumulating. Although recent Brazilian sugar production increases have a negative impact on prices, considering the low price level and the fact that negatives are mostly priced in, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Domestically, with high - level imports, low domestic sugar inventory, and high sales - to - production ratio, Zheng sugar is likely to have a range - bound movement with a short - term rebound [12]. - For the oilseeds and oils sector, the U.S. biodiesel market has digested some inventory, leading to a decline in the oilseeds and oils market. Malaysian palm oil production and inventory increase is expected to slow down. Indonesian inventory is low, and the price is supported. Domestic soybean oil is in the inventory - building stage, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, both providing price support [19]. - For corn/corn starch, the U.S. corn futures are falling. Although the U.S. may lower the yield per unit, the overall production is at a new high, with limited short - term rebound space. In the domestic market, the supply is still tight, and the spot price is likely to fall, with the 01 contract expected to have limited downward space [28]. - For live pigs, the overall supply remains stable, but due to the relatively high inventory, there is downward pressure on prices in the future [34]. - For peanuts, some peanuts are gradually coming onto the market, but the supply is limited due to weather. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the prices of related products are stable. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [39]. - For eggs, as the replenishment in each link is coming to an end, the spot price is falling. Based on the current fundamentals, egg prices are expected to face pressure in the short term [45]. - For apples, the early - maturing apple quality is poor, and the price difference between good and bad products is large. The expected low excellent - fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji may lead to a relatively high initial purchase price, but considering the current futures price, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [52]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, new cotton is gradually entering the acquisition stage. The expected increase in Xinjiang cotton production and the general acquisition enthusiasm of ginning mills will bring selling - hedging pressure. The demand improvement in the peak season is limited, so the market is expected to be slightly weak [62]. Summary by Directory Soybeans/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.07% to 1057.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.38% to $289.6 per short - ton [2]. - **Related Information**: As of September 11, the U.S. 2025/2026 soybean export net sales were 923,000 tons, and 2026/2027 net sales were 2,000 tons. For soybean meal, 2024/2025 net sales were 31,000 tons, and 2025/2026 net sales were 151,000 tons. Conab expects Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production to increase 3.6% to 177.67 million tons. Oil World expects the global sunflower seed production to be 58.7 million tons. As of September 12, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, with an operating rate of 66.35%. Soybean inventory was 7.332 million tons, and soybean meal inventory was 1.1644 million tons [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Exit the MRM05 spread widening; Options: Wait and see [7]. Sugar - **External Market Changes**: The previous trading day, ICE U.S. raw sugar main contract fell 0.1 (- 0.62%) to 16.13 cents per pound, and London white sugar main contract fell 3.7 (- 0.81%) to $455.6 per ton [8]. - **Important Information**: In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar. From January to August, the import volume was 2.6121 million tons. In the 2024/2025 sugar - making season as of August, the import volume was 4.0739 million tons. In the second half of August, Brazil's central - southern region had a cane crushing volume of 50.061 million tons, with a sugar production of 3.872 million tons. As of September 17, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 85, and the sugar quantity was 3.2827 million tons. In August 2025, China's refined sugar production was 454,000 tons [9][10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and Zheng sugar has limited downward space; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [13][14]. Oilseeds and Oils - **External Market**: Overnight, the CBOT U.S. soybean oil main contract changed by - 0.68% to 51.17 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract changed by 0.11% to 4439 ringgit per ton [17]. - **Related Information**: As of September 16, about 36% of the U.S. soybean - growing area was affected by drought. Conab expects Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production to increase 3.6%. The 2025 EU and UK rapeseed production is expected to be 21.6 million tons. In August 2025, China imported 340,000 tons of palm oil, 100,000 tons of soybean oil, and 140,000 tons of rapeseed oil [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider buying on dips in the short - term volatile market; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [21][22][23]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: The CBOT corn futures fell, with the December main contract down 0.4% to 424.5 cents per bushel [25]. - **Important Information**: The CBOT corn futures fell on Thursday due to seasonal harvest pressure and a stronger U.S. dollar. As of September 18, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 26.16 days. As of September 17, the corn inventory of 96 major corn - processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.34 million tons. As of September 12, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was 729,000 tons. On September 19, the purchase price in the northern port was 2240 yuan per ton [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait for the U.S. December corn to correct from a high level, and buy on dips for the 01 contract; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [29][30][31]. Live Pigs - **Related Information**: Live pig prices are falling, with different price ranges in different regions. As of September 16, the prices of piglets and sows also decreased. On September 18, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.03 points, and the national average pork wholesale price fell 0.9% [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Adopt a bearish view on the near - term contracts; Arbitrage: Do the LH15 reverse spread; Options: Buy long - term call options [35]. Peanuts - **Important Information**: The national average price of peanut kernels is 4.15 yuan per jin. Shandong and Henan oil mills have different purchase prices. The overall oil mill operating rate is low. The sales of peanut oil have slightly improved, and the price of peanut meal is stable. As of September 11, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 65,560 tons, and the peanut oil inventory was 36,760 tons [36][37][38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The 11 and 01 contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and try to go long on the 05 contract after a correction; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [39][40][41]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national mainstream egg prices mostly fell, and the egg market continued to fluctuate. In August, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.365 billion. As of September 11, the weekly egg sales in the representative sales areas were 7303 tons. The average inventory in the production and circulation links decreased [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider shorting at high levels; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [46][47]. Apples - **Important Information**: As of September 10, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 209,100 tons. In July 2025, the apple export volume was 53,600 tons, and the import volume was 17,700 tons. The price of early - maturing apples varies by region, and the profit of apple storage merchants in Qixia has decreased [49][50][51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Apples are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there will be selling - hedging pressure after the new apples are on the market; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [55][56][57]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: The previous trading day, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.26 (0.39%) to 66.92 cents per pound [59]. - **Important Information**: As of September 13, the average temperature and rainfall in the U.S. cotton - growing areas decreased. The all - cotton grey fabric market has little change, and the cotton spot trading is cold. The sales and transaction basis of cotton are in a certain range [60][61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zheng cotton is expected to be slightly weak, suggesting selective trading; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [63][64][65].

钢材：需求改善估值偏低，钢价存在修复空间 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 目录 | 第一章 | 钢材行情总结与展望 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 价格及利润回顾 | 5 | | 第三章 | 国内外重要宏观数据 | 12 | | 第四章 | 钢材供需以及库存情况 | 19 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 钢材总结 数据总结： GALAXY FUTURES 2 供给：本周螺纹小样本产量206.45万吨（-5.48），热卷小样本产量326.49万吨（+1.35）。247家钢厂高炉铁水日 均241.02万吨（+0.47），富宝49家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率28.9%（-5.8）。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本在 3435（折盘面）元/吨左右，电炉平电利润-198.14元/吨左右，谷电成本3270（折理记）元左右，华东三线螺纹谷电 利润-33元/吨。近期废钢价格上升，电炉成本抬升，钢价下跌，短流程利润下滑，电炉大幅减产；长流程钢利润在前 期亏损后小幅上涨，维持在盈亏平衡线附近，铁水延续240万吨以上；废钢日耗在53万吨，总体钢材生产 ...

投资咨询证号： Z0018389 联系方式： 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 9 月 18 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/9/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | | 7870 | 2 | 0.03% | 6 | -50.00% | 439 | 0.23% | | PK510 | | 7844 | 26 | 0.33% | 1,540 | -31.83% | 9,450 | -10.38% | | PK601 | | 7838 | 10 | 0.13% | 7,805 | -9.97% | 46,165 | 0.00% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | ...