大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 11 月 6 日 航运日报 1 / 6 研究员：贾瑞林 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数(欧线)日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2512 | 1.848.2 | -97.8 | -5.03% | 35,518.0 | -13.78% | 28.412.0 | -16.61% | | EC2602 | 1.601.0 | -51.0 | -3.09% | 9.591.0 | -7.90% | 22,625.0 | 1.22% | | EC2604 | 1,178.0 | -21.6 | -1.80% | 2,051.0 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 11 月 6 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 2154 20 0.93% 566,057 44.48% 970,616 3.73% 2244 9 0.40% 37,116 57.28% 233,906 -0.88% 2265 8 0.35% 2,380 50.92% 13,026 3.69% 2469 18 0.73% 136,936 89.04% 222,626 3.43% 2565 10 0.39% 716 65.08% 6,027 -1.33% 2610 16 0.61% 40 53.85% 477 6.00% 青冈 松原嘉吉 诸城兴贸 寿光 锦州港 南通港 广东港口 1965 2010 2310 2216 2150 2250 2250 0 0 20 0 -10 0 0 -300 -255 45 -49 - 4 -15 -15 龙凤 中粮 嘉吉 玉峰 金玉米 诸城兴贸 恒仁工贸 2650 2650 2800 2890 2800 2900 2800 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 6, 2025 [2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The underlying index, CSI 1000, closed at 7,551.83, up 1.17%. The main contract, IM2512, rose 1.03% to close at 7,405 points [4]. - The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 203,430 lots, down 35,254 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 349,856 lots, down 16,927 lots from the previous day [5]. 2.2 Basis - The main contract was at a discount of 146.83 points to the spot, up 7.23 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -16.45% [5]. 2.3 Positions - The report details the positions of major members in different IM contracts, including trading volume, long positions, and short positions, and their changes from the previous day [15][17][19] 3. IF Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The underlying index, SSE 300, closed at 4,693.40, up 1.43%. The main contract, IF2512, rose 1.39% to close at 4,670.8 points [20]. - The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 111,413 lots, down 5,203 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 264,651 lots, down 5,389 lots from the previous day [21]. 3.2 Basis - The main contract was at a discount of 22.6 points to the spot, up 8.06 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -4.01% [21]. 3.3 Positions - The report details the positions of major members in different IF contracts, including trading volume, long positions, and short positions, and their changes from the previous day [33][35][36] 4. IC Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The underlying index, CSI 500, closed at 7,345.72, up 1.61%. The main contract, IC2512, rose 1.69% to close at 7,246.4 points [38]. - The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 133,488 lots, down 13,675 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 249,495 lots, down 6,940 lots from the previous day [39]. 4.2 Basis - The main contract was at a discount of 99.32 points to the spot, up 22.02 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -11.37% [39]. 4.3 Positions - The report details the positions of major members in different IC contracts, including trading volume, long positions, and short positions, and their changes from the previous day [52][54][56] 5. IH Futures 5.1 Daily Quotes - The underlying index, SSE 50, closed at 3,044.74, up 1.22%. The main contract, IH2512, rose 1.04% to close at 3,041.4 points [58]. - The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 51,481 lots, down 1,639 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 96,234 lots, down 744 lots from the previous day [58]. 5.2 Basis - The main contract was at a discount of 3.34 points to the spot, up 2.03 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -0.91% [59]. 5.3 Positions - The report details the positions of major members in different IH contracts, including trading volume, long positions, and short positions, and their changes from the previous day [71][73][75]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of peanuts is increasing, while downstream demand remains weak. Peanut prices are expected to be relatively stable in the short term. Peanut oil prices are stable, and peanut meal prices have recently stabilized. Oil mills' theoretical profit from peanut pressing is acceptable. The peanut futures will continue to fluctuate at the bottom, and the new - season peanut output is expected to be higher than last year with lower planting costs [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures盘面**: PK604 closed at 7862, down 8 (-0.10%), with a trading volume of 9,447 (up 50.38%) and an open interest of 17,046 (up 42.35%); PK510 closed at 8140, up 14 (0.17%), with a trading volume of 26 (up 4.00%) and an open interest of 528 (up 3.94%); PK601 closed at 7788, down 14 (-0.18%), with a trading volume of 55,253 (up 14.43%) and an open interest of 168,130 (up 2.51%) [1] - **Spot and Basis**: In the spot market, the prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7400, 7800, and 7800 respectively, with no change. The prices of Rizhao peanut meal, Rizhao soybean meal, peanut oil, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil were 3250, 3050, 14580, and 8310 respectively, with the soybean oil price up 10. The basis for Henan Nanyang was - 388, and for Shandong Jining and Linyi was 12. The price difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was - 3, and the price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 6270. The import prices of Sudanese peanuts were 8600 and Senegalese peanuts were 7600, with no change [1] - **Spreads**: The spread of PK01 - PK04 was - 74, down 6; the spread of PK04 - PK10 was - 278, down 22; the spread of PK10 - PK01 was 352, up 28 [1] Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan have declined, while those in the Northeast have remained stable. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.3 yuan/jin, and in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.3 yuan/jin, both unchanged. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 3.5 - 3.7 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin, and in Junan, Shandong was 3.8 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin. Imported peanut prices were stable. The mainstream purchase price of peanut oil mills was 7650 - 7800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price was 7920 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable. The price of Rizhao soybean meal dropped by 10 yuan/ton to 3020 yuan/ton, and the 48 - protein peanut meal was quoted at 3210 yuan/ton [3][5] Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: Peanuts in contracts 01 and 05 will fluctuate at low levels [8] - **Calendar Spread**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [9] - **Options**: Hold the short position of pk601 - P - 7600 [10] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - There are six figures including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [13][18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side will face selling and hedging pressure as new cotton is expected to be in large supply in November. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The demand side is entering a relatively off - season after the peak season, with average recent orders. Considering these factors, Zhengzhou cotton is likely to fluctuate, with limited upside and downside potential. Additionally, Sino - US trade negotiations and the expiration of the Sino - US tariff agreement in November may have a significant impact on the market [5]. - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a sideways pattern, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger sideways movement. Existing long positions should take profits [6]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, the closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 10, 5, and 5 respectively. Their trading volumes decreased by 86089, 45399, and 14 respectively, and open interest changed by - 1553, + 4162, and - 12 respectively. For棉纱 futures, the closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts increased by 50, 40, and 145 respectively. Their trading volumes changed by + 125, + 9, and - 2 respectively, and open interest changed by + 19, + 1, and - 1 respectively [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 21 to 14820 yuan/ton, and the price of CY IndexC32S remained unchanged at 20520 yuan/ton. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FCY IndexC33S, etc., also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spread**: Cotton and棉纱 cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads all had different degrees of change. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was - 10 with a decrease of 5, and the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6265 with an increase of 60 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: As of November 3, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 96.1%, with different progress in southern, northern, and eastern Xinjiang. The out - of - Xinjiang cotton road transport price index on November 6, 2025, remained unchanged at 0.1827 yuan/ton·km, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. As of October 31, 1006 cotton processing enterprises across the country had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 178.4 million tons [4]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply side has new cotton coming onto the market in large quantities, with a large increase in production this year but a possible smaller increase than expected. The demand side is in a relatively off - season, and previous negative factors have been reflected in the price. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate mainly, and Sino - US trade policies need attention [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: - **Single - sided**: It is expected that US cotton will mostly fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger. Existing long positions should take profits [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: Affected by the good news of Sino - US tariff reduction, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, but the overall trading volume did not change much. Different varieties of cotton yarn showed different trends, with the overall inventory increasing. The spot market for all - cotton grey cloth had low production and sales, and enterprises generally reported a lack of large orders [8]. Third Part: Options - **Volatility**: On the previous day, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 7.2333, with a slight decrease in volatility. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 7.7%, 10.5%, and 15.1% respectively [10]. - **Volume Ratio**: The previous day, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7324, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.5889. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today [11]. - **Option Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12].

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 11 月 06 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 研究所 农产品研发报告 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 站 | | | | | | 格 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 107.18 | 107.61 | -0.43 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 6.94 | 7.16 | -0.22 | | 期货价格 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the current laying - hen inventory remains high. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively slow. Considering that the current spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per catty and the December main contract has given a certain premium, the upside potential is expected to be relatively limited [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3386, up 1 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3498, down 11; JD09 closed at 3854, down 13 [2]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was - 112, up 12; the 05 - 09 spread was - 356, up 2; the 09 - 01 spread was 468, down 14 [2]. - **Price Ratios**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, down 0.01; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.10, unchanged. Similar trends were observed for other contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.93 yuan per catty, up 0.06 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. The average price in the main selling areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, unchanged [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 3.99 yuan per catty, unchanged [2][6]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - **Inventory**: In October, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.1 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. It is estimated that the laying - hen inventory from November 2025 to February 2026 will be 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - **Chick Hatch**: In October, the monthly chick hatch of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, with little change from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 13% [5]. - **Culled Chicken Volume**: In the week of October 31, the culled chicken volume in the main producing areas was 20.53 million, an increase of 11% from the previous week. The average culling age was 494 days, a decrease of 5 days from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of October 31, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7658 tons, an increase of 2.1% from the previous week [5]. - **Profit**: As of the week of October 31, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was - 0.2 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.02 yuan per catty from the previous week. The expected profit of laying - hen farming was - 4.82 yuan per chicken, an increase of 1.42 yuan per catty from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory Days**: As of the week of October 31, the average inventory days in the production and circulation links were 1.04 days and 1.1 days respectively, unchanged from the previous week [6]. 3.4 Trading Logic The recent increase in culled chickens has relieved supply pressure, but the high laying - hen inventory persists. The short - term de - capacity speed will be slow, and the upside potential of the market is limited [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Despite better-than-expected US small non - farm ADP data and ISM non - manufacturing data, precious metal prices remained in the previous consolidation range due to multiple risk factors. Uncertainties include the record - breaking US government shutdown and the Supreme Court's debate on the legality of Trump - era tariffs. It is expected that precious metals will continue the adjustment trend in the future [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals fluctuated higher during the day. London gold stood back at the $4000 mark, trading at $4006, and London silver traded around the $48.5 mark. Driven by the external market, Shanghai gold closed up 0.79% at 917.8 yuan/gram, while the main Shanghai silver contract closed down 1.99% at 11427 yuan/kilogram [3] - The US dollar index fell below the 100 - dollar mark, trading around 99.99 [4] - The 10 - year US Treasury yield declined slightly, trading around 4.136% [5] - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose slightly, trading around 7.1224 [6] Important Information - US government dynamics: The US Supreme Court's debate on a tariff case opened, and the probability of Trump winning decreased. Trump's request to end the "lengthy debate" was rejected. Two Democratic leaders wrote to Trump for face - to - face negotiations, but Trump insisted on not negotiating until Democrats voted to restart the government. The shutdown will cut the capacity of 40 major US airports by 10% [7] - US macro data: The US October ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4, expected 50.8, and the previous value was 50. The US October ADP employment was 42,000, the largest increase since July 2025, expected 28,000, and the previous value was - 32,000 [7] - Fed observation: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 62.5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 37.5%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 54.8%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 25.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 19.4% [7] Logic Analysis - Due to multiple risk factors such as the government shutdown and the tariff case, precious metals are in a pattern with both upward pressure and downward support, and are expected to continue the adjustment trend [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Mainly operate with a band - trading mindset [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see [13] Data Reference - The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, real yields and precious metals, domestic and foreign futures trends, futures - spot trends, internal - external price differences, gold - silver ratios, ETF holdings, futures trading volumes, futures inventories, trading volumes, TD data, and Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates, with data sources from Flush iFinD and Galaxy Futures [16][19][22]

L&PP 日报 聚烯烃研发报告 【银河期货】塑料 PP 每日早盘观察（25-11-06） 塑料 L 及 PP：空单持有 【市场情况】 L 塑料相关：L2601 合约报收 6774 点，下跌-40 点或-0.59%。LLDPE 市场价格 延续弱势，幅度在 10-100 元/吨。线性期货低开震荡，挫伤交投气氛，部分出厂价格 下调，贸易商跟跌报盘，下游拿货积极性不高，小单补仓为主。华北大区 LLDPE 主 流成交价格在 6790-7050 元/吨，部分跌 10-50 元/吨。 PP 聚丙烯相关：PP2601 合约报收 6436 点，下跌-55 点或-0.85%。国内 PP 市 场持续弱势，部分下跌 30-80 元/吨。PP 期货震荡走低明显，进一步加重现货市场担 忧气氛。叠加部分生产企业下调价格，货源成本支撑减弱。贸易商积极出货为主，报 盘走低，市场低价货源增加明显。下游目前新单跟进有限，采购谨慎，市场成交多集 中在低价位，但整体成交量仍较为有限。 【逻辑分析】 10 月，国内制造业 PMI 回落至 49.0%，同比下滑-2.2%，连续 2 个月边际下滑， 利空橡塑单边。11 月至今，国内农林牧渔行业指数小幅回升至 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market showed resilience despite external shocks. The stock index futures market is expected to remain in a high - level shock in the short term, while the bond market has limited upward space. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of different varieties vary. For example, the price of soybean meal is affected by trade relations and supply - demand, and the international sugar price is in a downward trend. - The black metal market is in a state of shock. Steel prices are in a range - bound state, and the double - coke market is expected to be strong after a callback. - The non - ferrous metal market has different trends for each variety. Precious metals are in a range - bound arrangement, and the prices of some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand and cost. - The energy and chemical market also shows different trends. For example, the price of crude oil has support, while the price of asphalt is under pressure. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market was affected by the overnight decline of US stocks but quickly rebounded. The short - term market will maintain a high - level shock. It is recommended to buy at low levels near 3930 points of the Shanghai Composite Index and reduce positions at high levels above 4000 points. Also, consider IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage and bull spread options at low levels [18][19]. - **Treasury Futures**: The treasury futures closed mostly lower on Wednesday. It is recommended to take appropriate profit - taking. In the future, short - term long positions can be tried on the TL contract, and pay attention to short - term spread and term spread arbitrage opportunities [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Trade relations are beneficial to US soybeans, but the international soybean supply is abundant. The price of domestic soybean meal is supported in the near - term but under pressure in the long - term. It is recommended to short the far - month contracts [25][26]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is in a downward trend due to increased production in major producing areas. The domestic sugar price is expected to be in a range - bound state. It is recommended to operate in the range and short the international sugar while going long on Zhengzhou sugar [29][30][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to gradually decrease after accumulating in October, and the domestic palm oil inventory is increasing. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then consider going long at low levels [33][34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn is expected to be in a narrow - range shock. The domestic corn price has a short - term decline space. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month US corn on dips, wait and see for the 01 - month contract, and wait for a callback for the 05 and 07 - month contracts [37][38]. - **Pigs**: The pressure of pig slaughter continues, and the price remains low. It is recommended to short a small amount [39][40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is rebounding, and the 01 - month contract is in a short - term bottom shock. It is recommended to go long lightly on the 01 and 05 - month contracts [42][43][44]. - **Eggs**: The number of culled chickens has increased, and the egg price has stabilized. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Apples**: The market is expected to fluctuate greatly with the release of warehousing data. It is recommended to wait and see [50][51][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton harvest is at its peak. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be slightly stronger in a shock. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The iron - making output is shrinking, and the steel price is in a range - bound state. It is recommended to go long on dips and continue to hold the long position of the coil - screw spread [60][61]. - **Double - Coke**: The market is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [62][63][64]. - **Iron Ore**: It is recommended to take a bearish view. The price is expected to be in a high - level bearish operation [65][66]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is at a low level, and previous short positions can be reduced. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [68]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Multiple factors are intertwined, and the precious metals market is in a range - bound arrangement. It is recommended to operate in a band [71][72][74]. - **Copper**: The downstream purchasing sentiment has improved. It is recommended to wait and see and continue to hold the inter - market cash - and - carry arbitrage [75][76][77]. - **Alumina**: The supply - side production reduction has not been implemented, and the price is in a bottom - grinding state. It is recommended to wait and see [78][80][81]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The demand is resilient, and the price is expected to rise on dips. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum arbitrage [82][84][85]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The seasonal peak season is coming, and the price is expected to rise on dips. It is recommended to go long on dips [86][87][89]. - **Zinc**: It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and previous long positions can take partial profit [90][91][92]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to hold short positions. The price may have a downward space. Be vigilant about the impact of funds on the price [94][95]. - **Nickel**: The supply - demand is loose, the cost support is weakening, and the price is expected to decline in a shock [96].