供应进一步紧缩，需求暂无反馈 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 10 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 中东冲突继续升级，原料担忧持续。国内炼厂原料采购成本高企，叠加重油紧缺引发预防性减产，主营部分炼厂停产或减 产，进一步压缩沥青产出。3月沥青排产预期随着新增炼厂停减产而进一步减少，供应预期环比紧缩，驱动沥青盘面拉涨。 但当前下游刚需恢复缓慢，改性沥青、防水卷材开工率均低于历史平均水平，社会库存处于高位，需求端对价格的支撑暂 时偏弱，高价背景下中下游观望情绪较重。地缘冲突未缓和前，成本端支撑强劲，BU 沥青 ...

原油周报：战事转向不可控方向 研究员：赵若晨 期货从业证号：F03151390 投资咨询证号：Z0023496 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 伊朗战事持续升级，美国总统特朗普周六晚间对德黑兰发出最后通牒，限伊朗在48小时内完全开放霍尔木兹海峡， 否则将攻击该国电力设施。美国还考虑夺取伊朗石油出口枢纽哈尔克岛的计划，官员称正向中东增派逾2000名海 军陆战队员；伊朗回应称，如果电厂遭袭，将彻底封锁霍尔木兹海峡，并将中东地区所有属于以色列和美国的能 源、信息技术及海水淡化基础设施列为打击对象。美国财长贝森特表示，特朗普将"采取一切必要措施"来实现 美国既定目标，包括摧毁伊朗的空军和海军并剥夺其拥有核武器的能力。在霍尔木兹海峡通航受阻下，持续关注 胡塞 ...

天然气：卡塔尔产线受损，供应危机进一步放大 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 市场分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 核心数据追踪 | 8 | 1 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 2 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 目录 第二章 市场分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 核心数据追踪 8 3 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 ...

天然气：地缘风险爆发，市场恐慌性上涨 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 市场分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 核心数据追踪 | 8 | 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 2 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 目录 第二章 市场分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 核心数据追踪 8 3 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the LPG futures market was driven by geopolitical factors, showing a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz led to a significant decrease in the passage of LPG ships, a sharp increase in freight rates, and a divergence in the price trends of CP and FEI. Iran's tough stance and the potential damage to energy facilities in the Middle East affected the supply of LPG. Although there is a need to be vigilant about the negative feedback of increased unconventional PDH maintenance, PDH manufacturers still have a certain inventory. It is not recommended to short - sell at the top. Future attention should be paid to actual shipping conditions, domestic refinery load reduction, and PDH operation changes [3]. - For trading strategies, it is suggested to go long at low levels or hold long positions for single - side trading; the monthly spread is expected to be strong; and it is advisable to wait and see for options trading [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The LPG futures market was driven by geopolitics this week, with a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz led to a significant decrease in ship traffic, a sharp increase in freight rates, and a divergence in CP and FEI prices. Iran's tough attitude and potential damage to energy facilities in the Middle East affected LPG supply. There is a need to be vigilant about the negative feedback of increased unconventional PDH maintenance, but PDH manufacturers still have inventory support. It is not recommended to short - sell at the top, and future attention should be paid to shipping conditions, refinery load reduction, and PDH operation changes [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, go long at low levels or hold long positions; for arbitrage, the monthly spread is expected to be strong; for options, wait and see [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Crude Oil**: The conflict between the US and Iran directly drove the rapid rise and high volatility of crude oil prices through geopolitical risk premiums. The main transmission paths were the uncertainty of Iran's supply and exports and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz's interruption. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz led to a significant decrease in ship traffic, forcing Gulf countries to cut production and posing a substantial impact on global energy supply [9]. - **Supply**: The commodity volume of LPG decreased continuously on a week - on - week basis. The capacity utilization rate of major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 75.22%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.13% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.37%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic independent refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 57.49%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from last week. The LPG commodity volume decreased by 2.68% week - on - week. A refinery in North China was under maintenance, and many domestic refineries reduced their loads, resulting in a decrease in domestic supply. It is expected that the domestic LPG commodity volume may decline next week [13]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand remained stable for the time being. The operating rate of domestic propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units was 65.63%, a week - on - week increase of 2.4 percentage points. It is expected that the domestic PDH operating rate will decline next week. The operating rate of Shandong MTBE export factories remained unchanged from last week. The capacity utilization rate of alkylated oil samples decreased by 0.28 percentage points, and the commodity volume decreased by 0.09 tons [16]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased, and factory inventory also increased. The arrival of ships at ports increased, and import resources were replenished. Chemical demand increased slightly, but overall demand fluctuated little. The inventory of LPG factories increased slightly, and the inventory of most regional third - level stations increased significantly, except for North China [20]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Price Data**: The report provides price trends of Brent, WTI, CP C3, FEI C3, LPG futures prices, and related spreads and profit data, including import profits, PDH propylene and polypropylene profits under different pricing systems [24]. - **Spread Data**: It shows the spreads between different LPG products and the basis seasonal data of LPG in different regions [27]. - **Disk Profit Data**: It presents the import profits, PDH propylene and polypropylene profits under CP, FEI, and other pricing systems [30]. - **Spot Profit Data**: It includes the import profits, PDH propylene and polypropylene profits under FOB, CFR, and other pricing systems, as well as the gross margins of isomerization etherification and dehydrogenation etherification [33]. - **Supply Data**: It shows the capacity utilization rates of major refineries and independent refineries, the LPG commodity volume, and the seasonal data of crude oil processing volume. It also lists the maintenance plans of domestic refineries and PDH units [36][37][38]. - **Inventory Data**: It provides the inventory and capacity utilization rate data of LPG ports, third - level stations, and related capacity ratios [43].

天然气：卡塔尔依旧停产，矛盾持续累积 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 市场分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 核心数据追踪 | 8 | 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 辅 助 色 2 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 目录 第二章 市场分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 核心数据追踪 8 3 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various futures products, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping and carbon emissions, and energy chemicals. It is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, macro - economic policies, and supply - demand relationships. The overall market shows complex and volatile characteristics, and different products have different trends and investment strategies [21][24][54]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market sentiment turns to risk - aversion. Although the Shanghai Composite Index is technically oversold, the uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts and the Fed's interest - rate policy still affect the market. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The discount is expected to converge and the position is expected to increase next week. The trading strategies include grid operation for unilateral trading, IM\IC long 2609 + short ETF for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The domestic macro - economic indicators in January - February improved marginally, but the domestic demand growth rate is still low. The market liquidity is expected to remain loose, but there is a possibility of returning to a tight - balance state. The bond yield curve has become steeper. The trading strategies include waiting and seeing for unilateral trading and lightly shorting the 30Y - 7Y term spread for arbitrage [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The market is affected by both macro and fundamental factors, showing a wide - range volatile trend. It is recommended to lightly lay out long positions, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar production in India and Thailand is expected to be lower than expected, and the international sugar price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Domestically, although the supply is under pressure, the domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international price slightly. The trading strategies include going long at low prices and selling put options [30][32]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the oils are in a high - level volatile state. The inventory is at a neutral to high level. The trading strategies include high - level volatility for unilateral trading, reverse arbitrage for p59 and y59, and waiting and seeing for options [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The external market is volatile, and the domestic market is affected by factors such as increased millet auctions. The trading strategies include a callback - long idea for the external 05 corn, a high - level volatile idea for the 05 corn, and narrowing the spread between 05 corn and starch for arbitrage [37][39]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure has improved, but the overall price is still under pressure due to large inventory. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and use a short straddle strategy for options [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is strong, and the futures price is in a strong - volatile state. The trading strategies include short - term long at low prices for the 05 peanut, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling pk605 - P - 7700 options [42][44]. - **Eggs**: The enthusiasm for culling hens has decreased, and the egg price is mainly stable. It is recommended to short the June contract for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [45][46]. - **Apples**: The inventory removal speed is fast, and the price is firm. It is recommended to leave the 5 - month contract and wait and see, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [48][50]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The increase in import quotas has a relatively small impact on domestic supply, and the price is expected to follow the US cotton and rise. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [51][52]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Affected by overseas coal demand and raw material prices, the steel price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The trading strategies include a volatile and slightly stronger trend for unilateral trading, shorting the coil - coal ratio and the coil - screw spread for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [54][55]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price increase is a result of capital speculation under the background of rising overseas energy prices. The supply is relatively stable, and the core driver lies in the development of geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish, not to chase high or short at the top, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [56][58]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is disturbed, and the price is at a high level. It is recommended to hedge at a high level for spot, conduct a high - level reverse spread for the 5/9 month spread, and wait and see for options [59][60]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferrosilicon, the supply and demand are in a positive feedback, and the cost is supported. For ferromanganese, the supply and demand are marginally improved, and the cost is affected by the hurricane. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of the hurricane on the shipment of manganese ore, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [61][62]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, concerns about interest - rate hikes, and liquidity, the prices have dropped significantly. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, and aggressive investors can participate in short - term trading with a bearish idea [67][68]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Affected by macro - pressure, they are in a weak state. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, wait for the low - price spread to go long for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [70][71]. - **Copper**: Affected by geopolitical risks, the price is in a low - level volatile state. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - changes for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [72][75]. - **Alumina**: It is necessary to pay attention to the mining policy in Guinea. If the policy cannot reverse the oversupply situation of bauxite, the impact on alumina is mainly from the cost side. There is a basis for arbitrage [76][78]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the concern about economic slowdown has increased, and the price has weakened. It is recommended to follow the sector and wait and see for arbitrage and options [80][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Affected by macro - expectations, it is under pressure. It is recommended to follow the aluminum price and wait and see for arbitrage and options [83][84]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals have certain support, but the macro situation is uncertain. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile state. It is recommended to pay attention to domestic consumption and overseas smelter operations for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [85][88]. - **Lead**: It is in a low - level volatile state. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of domestic social inventory for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [89][92]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price is dominated by the macro situation, and the cost is strongly supported. It is recommended to wait for the macro situation to stabilize for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [93][94]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is expected to follow the nickel price, and the short - term macro impact is large. It is recommended to wait for the macro situation to stabilize for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage [95][96]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in an interval - volatile state. It is recommended to buy at the lower end of the interval and set stop - loss and take - profit in time [98][99]. - **Polysilicon**: It is short - term weak. It is recommended to pay attention to policy guidance, be cautious about liquidity risks for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [100][101]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The low price attracts downstream buyers. It is recommended to buy at the lower end of the interval for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [102][105]. - **Tin**: Affected by the macro situation, the price is in a weak - volatile state. It is recommended to be bearish in the short - term for unilateral trading and wait and see for options [107][109]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The geopolitical situation has escalated, and the freight rate has increased. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage [110][113]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The situation in the Middle East may escalate, and the rent of large and small ships shows a differentiated trend. The high oil price has an impact on the shipping cost. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the war and the supply and demand of the shipping market [114][116]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The Chinese carbon market is in a dull period, and the EU carbon market has temporarily got rid of the policy haze. The Chinese carbon market is expected to be supported in the short - term but lacks upward momentum. The EU carbon market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the medium - and long - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy changes and energy supply [117][123]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The war may further escalate, and the price is expected to be high. It is recommended to be bullish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [124][126]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is tight, the demand is weak, and the raw material concern persists. It is recommended to be bullish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [127][130]. - **Fuel Oil**: For high - sulfur fuel oil, pay attention to the demand start rhythm; for low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply is tight. It is recommended to go long on the near - month LU contract for unilateral trading, conduct long - spread arbitrage for LU, and wait and see for options [131][133]. - **LPG**: The demand is stable, and the price is rising. It is recommended to be bullish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [133][136]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk persists, and the price is in an upward trend. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage, and sell deep out - of - the - money put options on TTF [136][140]. - **PX & PTA**: The supply is expected to shrink unexpectedly, and PTA enterprises may be forced to reduce production. It is recommended to be bullish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [141][142]. - **BZ & EB**: The raw material supply is in short supply, and the fundamentals are good. It is recommended to be bullish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [143][145]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The import volume is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand structure is expected to improve. It is recommended to be bullish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [146][147]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing margin fluctuates in an interval. It is recommended to be bullish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [148][150]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory is continuously decreasing. It is recommended to be bullish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [151][153]. - **Propylene**: The supply is tight. It is recommended to be bullish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [153][156]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory accumulation rate of PP traders has slowed down. It is recommended to hold long positions for L and PP, conduct short - spread arbitrage for L2605&PP2605, and wait and see for options [157][159]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export inquiry is active, and the price is volatile. It is recommended to be volatile for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [160][163]. - **PVC**: It is mainly strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage and options [164][165]. - **Soda Ash**: It is in a weak - volatile state. It is recommended to be bearish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [166][169]. - **Glass**: It is in a weak - volatile state. It is recommended to be bearish for unilateral trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [170][174]. - **Methanol**: It is rising strongly. It is recommended to hold long positions for unilateral trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options on pullbacks [175][177]. - **Urea**: It is mainly volatile. It is recommended to go short at high prices for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [178][180]. - **Pulp**: The external price increase boosts the valuation. It is recommended to go long at low prices for unilateral trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell SP2605 - P - 5100 options [181][183]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The market is based on rigid - demand purchases. It is recommended to go short at high prices for unilateral trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell OP2604 - C - 4200 options [184][188]. - **Logs**: The import cost is rising. It is recommended to go long at low prices for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [188][192]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The all - steel tire inventory is decreasing, and the semi - steel tire inventory is increasing. It is recommended to try long positions for the RU 05 contract, wait and see for the NR 05 contract, conduct spread arbitrage for NR2605 - RU2605, and wait and see for options [193][195]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The all - steel tire inventory is decreasing, and the semi - steel tire inventory is increasing. It is recommended to hold long positions for the BR 05 contract, conduct spread arbitrage for BR2505 - RU2505, and wait and see for options [196][199].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current agricultural product futures market is dominated by macro - driving, with strengthened cost support. The Middle - East geopolitical conflict persists, keeping crude oil prices high. Combined with the expected US biodiesel policy and the contraction of cotton and sugar supply, these factors have replaced traditional industrial supply - demand as the core of pricing, presenting a "strong expectation, weak reality" pattern. Cotton and sugar are driven by both supply - demand and valuation, oil and meal still have effective cost support, the supply - demand of pigs is loose with continuously weak prices, and corn is in a neutral oscillation [2]. - It is recommended to focus on long positions in oil - meal, sugar, and cotton 09 contracts in the near future [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Market Characteristics**: Last week, agricultural product futures were still dominated by macro - driving, with strong - weak differentiation among varieties and intensified overall fluctuations. Geopolitical conflicts pushed up crude oil and agricultural material costs, and the expected implementation of the US biodiesel policy became the core anchor for agricultural product prices [9]. - **Performance of Different Varieties**: Cotton and sugar benefited from the expected global supply contraction and the strengthening of the external market, with clear long - term directions. The oil - and - oilseed sector was generally strong due to crude oil premium and biodiesel demand. Meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) was more elastic due to short - term tight arrival expectations, high basis, and increased fluctuations in US soybeans. Soybean oil and palm oil were at historical highs with convergent oscillations. Pigs were continuously weak due to weak supply - demand and the off - season of consumption. Corn maintained a neutral oscillation under the marginal influence of inventory and policies [9]. 3.2 Agricultural Product Futures Supply - Demand Pattern - **Overall Situation**: As of March 20, most agricultural products' supply - demand patterns were neutral. Only cotton and sugar were bullish, while pigs were bearish. For other varieties such as meal, oil, corn, eggs, and peanuts, the long - and short - term factors offset each other, with no clear trend [15]. - **Specific Varieties**: Cotton benefited from supply - side support, sugar was driven by the strengthening of the external market, and pigs were under pressure due to weak supply - demand [15]. 3.3 Agricultural Product Futures Strategy Signals - **Analysis of Different Varieties**: Recently, cotton and sugar showed strong bullish characteristics. Cotton had a high basis, and sugar was at a low price with a safety margin for long positions. Most varieties such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, corn, and eggs were in a neutral oscillation range. Palm oil, pigs, and peanuts were judged as weak varieties [19]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to prioritize the layout of strong bullish varieties such as cotton and sugar, and be vigilant about the retracement risk of high - volatility varieties and the impact of basis changes [19]. 3.4 Current Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Strategy for Different Varieties**: Hold long positions in soybean meal and rapeseed meal 09 contracts as crude oil prices remain high, the US biodiesel policy is expected to be implemented, and the cost of imported soybeans is rising. Hold long positions in soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts due to the continuous Middle - East geopolitical conflict, high crude oil prices, and the expected implementation of the US biodiesel policy. Hold long positions in sugar 09 contracts as high crude oil prices lead Brazilian sugar mills to reduce the sugar - making ratio and increase ethanol production, combined with the reduction of Indian production and the narrowing of the global surplus expectation, as well as domestic cost support and restocking demand. Hold long positions in cotton 09 contracts as policy - driven production cuts set the tone for a tight - balance in the new year, crude oil pushes up costs and substitution cost - effectiveness, and downstream restocking demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" period, with strong expectations offsetting the high - inventory reality and a medium - to - long - term shift to a tight - balance [21][22]. 3.5 Driving Force Schematic - **Core Bullish Allocations**: As of March 20, cotton, sugar, and soybean meal were the core bullish allocation directions. Corn, pigs, etc. should be on the sidelines or try short positions on rallies. Most oil and meal varieties were in an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in supply - demand and valuation [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The short - term market for lithium carbonate is weak, but the long - term outlook is positive. In March, the domestic supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has loosened marginally, and it is expected to shift to inventory accumulation. There is selling pressure from hedging positions and macro - sentiment, but there is also certain support from the demand peak season and normal imports from April to May. The recommended strategies are to buy on dips when the macro - environment stabilizes for unilateral trading, to wait and see for arbitrage, and to adopt protective strategies for options [6]. Summary According to the Directory Demand Analysis - **New Energy Vehicles**: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday and weak consumer willingness, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in February decreased year - on - year. The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles from January to February and from March 1 - 15 also declined year - on - year. However, the power cell production increased by 33% year - on - year from January to February, mainly due to the significant increase in the battery capacity per vehicle. The global new energy vehicle sales in January 2026 decreased by 6% year - on - year, with European sales growing by 22.1% and US sales decreasing by 25%. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to February 2026 increased by 108% year - on - year [14][22]. - **Energy Storage Market**: Supported by policies, the energy storage market has full orders. The 2026 National Development and Reform Commission Document No. 114 proposed a capacity - based electricity price mechanism for grid - side independent new - type energy storage, increasing profit sources. After the Spring Festival, the demand for replenishing orders was released, and the orders of first - and second - tier enterprises are scheduled until the second half of the year [28]. - **Cell and Cathode Production**: In February, the production of batteries, cells, cathodes, and electrolytes decreased month - on - month. In March, the production of all these aspects increased month - on - month. It is expected that each link will have a small month - on - month increase in April [35]. Supply Analysis - **Smelter Resumption and Production Restoration**: From January to February, the production of lithium carbonate decreased month - on - month due to smelter maintenance, but the cumulative year - on - year growth was 43%. In March, with the resumption of production and the ramping - up of new capacity, the monthly production is expected to exceed 105,000 tons, reaching a record high. The production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials, except mica, is increasing. The resumption of lithium ore exports from Zimbabwe is a key factor affecting future domestic lithium ore supply [43]. - **Monthly Production by Raw Material in China**: The supply of mica ore is insufficient [44]. - **Increased Supply in March**: From January to February, the cumulative imports of lithium carbonate increased by 65% year - on - year to 52,000 tons. After March, imports may gradually return to normal. The cumulative imports of lithium ore from January to February increased by 22% year - on - year. Australian mines were shipped intensively in March, and there will be no significant impact on lithium ore imports before May [52]. Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory - **Supply - Demand Balance Estimation**: No specific numerical analysis of supply - demand balance is provided in the text, but it is mentioned that the supply - demand balance has loosened marginally in March, and inventory accumulation is expected [6]. - **Inventory Situation**: After the Spring Festival, the inventory reduction has continuously slowed down, with a reduction of only 86 tons this week, and inventory accumulation may occur next week. Although the supply - demand balance has loosened marginally, the domestic inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped to the level of early 2022, supporting high - level prices. Inventory has shifted downstream, and the middle and upstream still have room for inventory replenishment, but smelters are more active in shipping after the weakening of lithium price increases. Smelter inventories are still low, and downstream buyers have sufficient stocks and are not in a hurry to purchase [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market have not changed significantly, and cotton prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is likely to move in a range, while the domestic cotton market is expected to show a slightly stronger trend in the short term [1][8][25] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamentals of the US cotton market have not changed much, and it is expected to move in a range. As of the week of March 12, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 3.0482 million tons, accounting for 100.6% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. The weekly deliverable ratio was 79.9%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.7%, 1.1 percentage points higher year-on-year [8] - **US Cotton Growth Situation**: As of March 12, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 3.0482 million tons, accounting for 100.6% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. The inspection volume of US upland cotton was 2.9602 million tons, with an inspection progress of 100.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 4%; the inspection volume of Pima cotton was 88,000 tons, with an inspection progress of 104.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 14% [8] - **US Cotton Production Area Weather Situation**: As of March 10, the drought index in the main US cotton production areas (93.0%) was 229, a week-on-week decrease of 3 and a year-on-year increase of 97; the drought index in Texas was 253, a week-on-week decrease of 1 and a year-on-year increase of 65. The drought index in the main US cotton production areas remained basically stable, and the drought levels in the main production areas and Texas were still at relatively high levels in recent years. According to the quarterly outlook, the drought in the main US cotton production areas will continue from March to May, intensify in the central and western regions, and ease in the eastern production areas [8] - **US Cotton Sales Situation**: As of the week of March 12, the weekly contract volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 44,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22% and a 30% decrease from the average level of the previous four weeks; among them, Vietnam signed 17,200 tons and Turkey signed 6,300 tons. The weekly contract volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 27,700 tons, with China signing 11,000 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 62,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 26% and an 8% increase from the average level of the previous four weeks, with Vietnam shipping 22,100 tons and Pakistan shipping 8,300 tons [8] - **CFTC**: As of March 6, the number of unpriced contracts of the seller on the ON - CALL 2605 contract decreased by 3,239 to 17,576, a decrease of 70,000 tons week-on-week. The total number of unpriced contracts of the seller in the 2025/26 season decreased by 1,019 to 32,083, equivalent to 730,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons week-on-week. The total number of unpriced contracts of the seller on ICE increased to 56,853, equivalent to 1.29 million tons, an increase of 1,475 contracts or 30,000 tons week-on-week [8] - **India**: According to the latest report of the Cotton Association of India (CAI), as of February 28, 2026, compared with the previous month, the estimated cotton balance sheet for the 2025/26 season showed an increase of 60,000 tons in production, 170,000 tons in domestic demand, a decrease of 50,000 tons in imports, and a decrease of 160,000 tons in ending inventory. Compared with the previous year, the beginning inventory increased by 360,000 tons, production increased by 140,000 tons, imports increased by 100,000 tons, domestic demand increased by 20,000 tons, exports decreased by 50,000 tons, and ending inventory increased by 640,000 tons [8] - **Global**: According to the latest March global cotton production and sales forecast of the USDA, the global cotton production in March was 26.34 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 250,000 tons, with China's production increasing by 100,000 tons to 7.72 million tons; total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.84 million tons; ending inventory increased by 280,000 tons to 16.63 million tons [8] 3.2 Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of 24:00 on March 11, 2026, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises was 33,290,304 bales, totaling 7,514,731 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.03%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 7,128,929 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.06%. As of March 6, 2026, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 5.2078 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 59,800 tons (a decrease of 1.14%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 4.0151 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 85,400 tons (a decrease of 2.08%); the commercial cotton in the inland area was 636,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 7,200 tons (an increase of 1.14%) [26] - **Demand Side**: As of March 19, the cumulative sales volume of national lint cotton was 5.683 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.767 million tons and an increase of 2.16 million tons compared with the average of the past four years. As of March 12, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 76%, a week-on-week increase of 3.83%. This week, the spinning mills in the inland area continued to resume production, with an operating rate of 60 - 70% in the inland area and over 90% in Xinjiang. As of March 12, the yarn inventory of spinning mills in major areas was 34.8 days, a week-on-week increase of 2.35%. This week, the operating rate of spinning mills increased, but new orders for spinning mills were limited, yarn sales were slow, and finished product inventory accumulated, with an inventory of 18 - 25 days for inland enterprises and 40 - 45 days for enterprises in Xinjiang [26] - **Comprehensive View**: Currently, the market contradictions are not significant, the demand side performs well, and the market has certain expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April". At present, the cotton sales progress is still fast and at a high level in the same period of previous years. The fundamentals of cotton have certain support [26] 3.3 Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: The issuance of 300,000 tons of import sliding - scale duty quotas this time has a relatively small impact on domestic supply. However, the issuance time is very early, leaving room for future policies. It is expected that the issuance of these quotas will likely benefit US cotton, narrow the domestic - foreign price difference, and the Zhengzhou cotton price may also follow the upward trend of US cotton. Recently, crude oil prices have fallen, and cotton prices have been affected by the overall market atmosphere, but considering the current market support, the downward space is expected to be relatively limited [38] - **Unilateral Strategy**: It is expected that the US cotton price will likely fluctuate in a range in the short term. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have certain support. It is advisable to consider building long positions on dips and not to chase high prices [38] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [38] - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [38] 3.4 Weekly Data Tracking - **Domestic - Foreign Price Difference**: The chart shows the domestic - foreign cotton price difference, the price difference under 1% tariff, the domestic cotton price, and the imported cotton price under 1% tariff from 2020 to 2023 [41] - **9 - 1 Spread Trend**: The chart shows the 9 - 1 spread trends of different years, such as CF1909 - 2001, CF2009 - 2101, etc. [42] - **Cotton Inventory**: The table shows the historical data of national cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton industrial inventory, reserve inventory, and other aspects from 2015 to 2024 [44] - **Basis**: The charts show the basis of cotton in different months (January, May, September), the basis of US seven - major market upland cotton, and the basis between the spot price of C32S cotton yarn and the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton yarn [47]