双焦：煤矿陆续放假，现货成交趋于冷清 研究员：郭超 期货从业证号：F03119918 投资咨询证号：Z0022905 2026年02月06日 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 228/210/172 181/181/181 221/221/221 208/218/234 投资逻辑与交易策略 逻辑分析 ◼ 近日焦煤期货受印尼煤炭政策消息影响波动较大，情绪及资金交易为主，实质性影响还有待观察。2月5日印尼矿产与 煤炭司司长表示，2026年煤炭开采工作计划的核准文件尚未正式发布，市场上流传的削减信息被官方认定为无效信息。 另司长表示正在研究将2026年煤炭产量目标下调至6亿吨的可行性，并强调减产措施将按比例、差异化措施，且新一 轮产量配额分配的核心考量依据是企业向国家缴纳的非税财政收入。印尼近年煤炭相关政策实际执行落地效果不佳， 往往 ...

棉系周报：整体变化不大 棉价区间震荡 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠、王玺圳 期货从业证号：F3013727、F03118729 咨询从业证号：Z0014425、F3013727 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 221/221/221 208/218/234 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/1 ...

股指期货数据日报 IM每日行情 | | | 单位：点、手、亿元 单位：手 | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | | 成交额 | +/- | | 持仓量 | | +/- | 持仓保证金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中证1000 | 8051.57 | -0.20% | 28,108 | | 2 | % | 4,446 | 1 | % | | | | | IM2602 | 8026.80 | -0.72% | 38,635 | | 11% | | 624 | 11% | | 52,205 | 1,058 | 101 | | IM2603 | 7990.80 | -0.82% | 147,053 | | 3 | % | 2,366 | 3 | % | 187,915 | 981 | 360 | | IM2606 | 7830.80 | -0.84% | 39,470 | | 1 | % | 621 | 1 | % | 109,419 | 1,394 | 206 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market is currently in a state of "strong supply and weak demand" as the Spring Festival stocking nears its end. Egg prices are expected to continue falling before the Spring Festival, and it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract [5][16][17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.45 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.53 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.62 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.72 yuan per catty from last Friday. Egg prices are expected to continue falling before the Spring Festival [5] - The price of old hens has been weakly adjusted after falling from a high. The market demand support is average, and the supply - demand of the old hen market is relatively stable [5] 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - According to Zhuochuang data, the weekly egg - chicken culling volume in the main producing areas of the country from February 6th was 16.55 million, a 2% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of February 6th was 495 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [10] - In January, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a 5% year - on - year increase, and lower than expected. The monthly output of egg - chicken chicks from sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in January was 43.22 million, a 9% month - on - month increase and little change year - on - year [10] 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - As of February 5th, the corn price was around 2,368 yuan per ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3,176 yuan per ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2,610 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 2.87 yuan per catty of eggs [13] - The feed price fluctuated little this week, and the cost per catty of eggs was flat month - on - month. The average weekly profit per catty of eggs decreased. As of January 15th, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.52 yuan, a decrease of 0.14 yuan per catty from the previous week. On February 6th, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 12.65 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.37 yuan per catty from the previous week [13] 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - As the festival stocking nears the end, the market starts risk control in advance. The sales in markets such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Dongguan have slowed down significantly, and the price is under pressure. The sales in the selling areas have decreased month - on - month. As of February 6th, the weekly egg sales in the national representative selling areas were 7,304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [16] - After the festival stocking ended, egg prices entered a rapid decline cycle, and egg inventories showed a "rapid inventory accumulation" trend. The inventory days in the production and circulation links increased month - on - month for many consecutive days. As of the week of January 23rd, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.26 days, with little change from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.45 days, an increase of 0.04 days from the previous week [16] - This week, the vegetable price index rebounded slightly. On February 4th, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 132. The pork price also rebounded slightly. As of January 31st, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 14.67 yuan per kilogram, with little change from the previous week [16] 3.1.5 Trading Strategies - Trading logic: As the Spring Festival approaches, the Spring Festival stocking is basically coming to an end. The market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, and the overall capacity reduction has slowed down. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract [17] - Single - side: Consider shorting the June contract [17] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [17] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17] 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Egg - Chicken Farming Situation - No specific data or analysis content provided in the text 3.2.2 Spread and Basis - The text provides the basis and spread data from 2018 - 2025 for different contract months (January, May, September), including 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, 9 - 1 spread, etc., but no specific analysis is made [24][25]

苹果周报：出库速度较快 果价有支撑 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 第一部分 逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 137/137/137 246/206/207 ◼ 交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 需求分析 苹果现货分析 栖霞一二级纸袋80#（元/斤） 洛川半商品纸袋70#（元/斤） 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1-1 1-14 1-27 2-9 2-22 3-7 3-20 4-2 4-15 4-28 5-11 5-24 6-6 6-19 7-2 7-15 7-28 8-10 8-23 9-5 9-18 10-1 10-14 10-27 11-9 11-22 12-5 12-18 12-31 栖霞一、二级纸袋80# 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of steel have weakened marginally. Currently, the five major steel products are reducing production, but hot metal production is still increasing. Steel mills are entering the holiday shutdown and maintenance mode. Steel inventory is accumulating at an accelerated pace, with rebar inventory accumulating faster than hot - rolled coil, and the overall social inventory pressure is greater than that of the mill inventory. The demand for building materials has declined rapidly due to cold weather and construction site shutdowns, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has also decreased due to factors such as a decline in export licenses and the end of the restocking phase in overseas manufacturing. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate following macro - economic sentiment before the holiday. However, the high steel inventory, potential lower - than - expected post - holiday capital expenditure, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the increase in hot metal production this year and put pressure on raw materials [7]. - The trading strategies suggest that the steel market will maintain a weak and volatile trend. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the ratio of hot - rolled coil to coking coal. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Chapters Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 191.68 tons (a decrease of 8.15 tons), and that of hot - rolled coil was 309.16 tons (a decrease of 0.05 tons). The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons (an increase of 0.6 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 16.9% (a decrease of 15.8%). The cost of electric arc furnaces has increased, leading to a decline in profits and a significant drop in capacity utilization. Long - process steel mills are still profitable, but the enthusiasm for increasing production is limited [4]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 147.64 tons (a decrease of 28.76 tons), and that for hot - rolled coil was 305.54 tons (a decrease of 5.87 tons). The demand for building materials has decreased due to cold weather and construction site shutdowns. The demand for hot - rolled coils has also declined as overseas manufacturing enters the off - season. The investment in domestic fixed assets has a lack of incremental projects, and the real estate market is still in a downward trend. The manufacturing PMI in January showed a decline, and the production and sales data of some industries such as automobiles and white goods also showed different trends [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased by 44.04 tons (4.52 tons in mill inventory and 39.52 tons in social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.62 tons (1.50 tons in mill inventory and 2.12 tons in social inventory), and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 59.24 tons [4]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that steel prices will maintain a volatile trend following macro - economic sentiment before the holiday. However, the high inventory, potential lower - than - expected post - holiday capital expenditure, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the increase in hot metal production this year and put pressure on raw materials. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of coal mines, hot metal production, downstream demand performance, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The steel market will maintain a weak and volatile trend. For arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the ratio of hot - rolled coil to coking coal. For options, wait and see [9]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3220 yuan (a decrease of 30 yuan), and in Beijing was 3130 yuan (a decrease of 20 yuan). The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3250 yuan (a decrease of 20 yuan), and in Tianjin (Hebei Steel) was 3160 yuan (a decrease of 20 yuan) [13]. - **Profit**: The flat - rate electricity profit of electric arc furnaces in East China was - 234.68 yuan (a decrease of 83 yuan), and the off - peak electricity profit was - 70 yuan (a decrease of 83 yuan). The long - process steel mills still had profits, but the short - process steel mills' profits were under pressure [32]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data Summary - **International**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in January reached 52.6, a new high since August 2022. The eurozone's CPI in January increased by only 1.7% year - on - year, the lowest since September 2024, and the core CPI dropped to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021. Indonesia plans to cut coal production and may impose export tariffs in 2026 [34]. - **Domestic**: In December, the new social financing was 22075 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 22.64%. The new RMB loans were 9100 billion yuan. The investment in fixed assets from January to December 2025 decreased by 3.80% year - on - year, with a significant decline in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investment. The real estate market data such as new construction, completion, and sales still showed negative growth, and the willingness of residents to buy houses was insufficient [41]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons (an increase of 0.6 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 16.9% (a decrease of 15.8%). The small - sample production of rebar was 191.68 tons (a decrease of 8.15 tons), and that of hot - rolled coil was 309.16 tons (a decrease of 0.05 tons) [59][65]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 147.64 tons (a decrease of 28.76 tons), and that for hot - rolled coil was 305.54 tons (a decrease of 5.87 tons). The demand for building materials has decreased due to cold weather and construction site shutdowns, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has also declined as overseas manufacturing enters the off - season. The investment in domestic fixed assets has a lack of incremental projects, and the real estate market is still in a downward trend [68]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased by 44.04 tons (4.52 tons in mill inventory and 39.52 tons in social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.62 tons (1.50 tons in mill inventory and 2.12 tons in social inventory), and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 59.24 tons [4].

成本支撑较强，多单可继续持有 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 硅铁方面，供应端样本企业开工率与产量小幅反弹，但绝对值仍处于同期低位水平，宁夏部分产区临时停电导致部分产量损失，下 期统计数据或再度下降。需求方面，钢材库存开始季节性累积，钢材产量也在春节前季节性下降，但铁水产量相对平稳，原料端需 求暂有支撑。成本端方面，1月电价逐步结算，产区铁合金电价总体平稳，部分产区有所上调。近期受贵金属、有色等龙头商品暴跌 冲击情绪，但自身成本端支撑较强，此前报告中建议的多单可继续持有。 锰硅方面，供应端开工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, China's log supply and demand showed a differentiated pattern. The supply was affected by natural disasters in New Zealand, with a 5% week - on - week decrease in the arrival volume at 13 ports in China. The demand was limited due to the approaching holiday of processing plants and the decline in the capital availability rate of construction projects. The inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 4.46%, and the radiation pine inventory dropped by 5.24%. The log valuation was regionally differentiated, and the price was in line with the actual supply - demand situation. It is expected that the log price will remain stable with a slight upward trend next week, and there will be no significant trend fluctuations [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Supply**: New Zealand's heavy rain in the North Island caused landslides, suspending logging around Tauranga Port and disrupting shipments. The arrival volume at 13 ports in China decreased by 5% week - on - week, and there was a structural shortage of 6 - meter logs at Jiangsu Taicang Port [7]. - **Demand**: Some processing plants have shut down, and most will have holidays from late January to early February. Although the national average daily outbound volume increased by 7.13%, the capital availability rate of construction sites decreased week - on - week, with both housing construction and non - housing construction projects seeing a decline, resulting in limited demand support [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 4.46%, the radiation pine inventory dropped by 5.24%, and the inventories at Shandong and Jiangsu ports decreased. Only the inventory of North American logs increased slightly, showing significant regional supply - demand structural differences [7]. 3.1.2 Logic Analysis - This week, the log valuation was regionally differentiated, and the price was in line with the actual supply - demand situation. The price increase in Jiangsu was mainly due to low arrivals, structural shortages, and pre - Spring Festival stocking. The stable price in Shandong was because of stable supply and lack of incremental demand. The January FOB price remained at $110, while the ocean freight increased, and there was an expectation of a price increase in the February FOB price. The downstream wood products' prices showed a mixed trend. In the short term, the valuation in Jiangsu was supported by tight supply, but the demand would be under pressure as processing plants approached holidays. The valuation in Shandong was constrained by the balance of supply and demand. It is expected that the price will remain stable next week without significant trend fluctuations [7]. 3.1.3 Strategies - **Unilateral**: The log price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. Investors are advised to go long based on the previous low [8]. - **Arbitrage**: The near - month contracts are expected to strengthen in the short term due to the natural disaster in New Zealand. Investors should pay attention to the log 03 - 05 spread [8]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Not provided with additional content beyond what's in the comprehensive analysis section 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Supply - From November to December, the volume of logs shipped to China increased from 1452,000 cubic meters to 1521,000 cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 5%, and the number of ships increased from 49 to 55, an increase of 6 [17]. - From January 17 - 23, 2026, a total of 6 ships with 240,000 cubic meters of logs left 12 ports in New Zealand, a week - on - week increase of 2 ships and 120,000 cubic meters. Among them, 4 ships with 170,000 cubic meters were shipped directly to China, a week - on - week increase of 1 ship and 80,000 cubic meters [18]. - Due to heavy rain in New Zealand's North Island, logging around Tauranga Port was suspended, and the shipping had not returned to normal, with some ships delayed. From January 19 - 25, 2026, 11 ships with New Zealand logs were expected to arrive at 13 ports in China, the same as last week, and the total arrival volume was about 350,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 19,000 cubic meters and 5% [19]. 3.3.2 Log Inventory - As of January 16, the total inventory of domestic logs by material was 2.57 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 120,000 cubic meters and 4.46%. The radiation pine inventory was 2.17 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 120,000 cubic meters and 5.24%. The North American log inventory was 130,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 cubic meters and 8.33%. The spruce/fir inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 cubic meters and 7.69% [22]. - As of January 16, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 410,820 cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian was 89,795 cubic meters, a decrease of 16,513 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 2 ports in Hebei was 71,000 cubic meters, an increase of 31,000 cubic meters from the previous period [22]. 3.3.3 Log Demand - As of January 16, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 61,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4100 cubic meters and 7.13%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 32,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4500 cubic meters and 16.13%. The average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 22,800 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 700 cubic meters and 2.98% [26]. - As of January 20, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 60.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 percentage points. The capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 53.95%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.84 percentage points. The regions with a decrease in capital availability were mainly in East China [26]. 3.3.4 Log Prices - **Radiation Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiation pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 740 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week and a year - on - year decrease of 70 yuan per cubic meter and 8.64%. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiation pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 770 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per cubic meter and 2.67%, and a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan per cubic meter and 4.94%. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1150 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan per cubic meter and 0.86%, and a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan per cubic meter and 9.52% [33]. - **Downstream Wood Product Prices**: Taking the 3000 * 40 * 90 radiation pine wood as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1200 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was 1260 yuan per cubic meter. Taking the 3000 * 40 * 90 spruce/white pine wood as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1750 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was 1680 yuan per cubic meter [36]. 3.3.5 Imported Log Costs - As of January 5, 2026, the FOB (CFR) price range of New Zealand radiation pine logs in January was $109 - 112 per JAS cubic meter, with the main price at $110 per JAS cubic meter, a decrease of $2 per JAS cubic meter from December [42].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp market's supply - demand imbalance has worsened, with increased port inventories and weak demand. Pulp valuation is in a weak downward trend, and prices may continue to seek support downward in the short term [4]. - The supply - demand of double - offset paper remains in a weak balance. Its valuation has stabilized at a low level. In the short term, it's hard to improve, and in the long term, it depends on post - holiday demand recovery and capacity clearance [4]. - Suggested trading strategies: for single - sided trading, adopt a short - selling approach for SP2505 and a bearish operation for OP2502; for arbitrage, mainly wait and watch, and pay attention to 4SP - OP arbitrage; for options, wait and watch for SP options, and sell OP2602 - C - 4300 for OP options [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: No specific content provided - **Trading Strategies**: - Single - sided: Adopt a short - selling approach for SP2505 and a bearish operation for OP2502 [4]. - Arbitrage: Mainly wait and watch, and pay attention to 4SP - OP arbitrage [4]. - Options: Wait and watch for SP options, and sell OP2602 - C - 4300 for OP options [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Pulp**: - Supply: The production of domestic broad - leaf pulp decreased by 0.3 tons to 24.9 tons, while chemimechanical pulp increased slightly by 0.1 tons. Port inventories increased to 2.068 million tons and have been rising for three consecutive weeks [4]. - Demand: Pre - holiday stocking is basically over. Domestic consumption decreased by 2.9 tons. The demand for white cardboard and double - offset paper declined, and overall demand support is insufficient [4]. - Valuation: It shows a weak downward trend, pressured by continuous inventory accumulation at ports and weak demand [4]. - **Double - offset Paper**: - Supply: The production was 196,000 tons, a 3.4% decrease. The capacity utilization rate was 50.2%, a 1.8% decrease. Although there were planned maintenance, the market supply was still abundant [4][8]. - Demand: Textbook printing has ended, social orders have not improved, and users mainly consumed inventories. The shipment volume decreased by 3.0%, and the enterprise inventory increased slightly by 0.4% [4][12]. - Valuation: It has stabilized at a low level, and the profit pressure has slightly eased. In the short term, it's hard to improve, and in the long term, it depends on post - holiday demand recovery and capacity clearance [4]. - **Copper - plate Paper**: - Supply: The production was 84,000 tons, a 1.2% increase. The capacity utilization rate was 62.0%, a 0.4% increase. The overall production change was small [16]. - Demand: Downstream consumption was weak, and there was no obvious inventory - building intention [20]. - Inventory: The production enterprise inventory was 383,000 tons, a 1.6% increase, and it may continue to increase slightly in the next period [20]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Double - offset Paper**: - Supply: Production decreased by 7,000 tons to 196,000 tons, a 3.4% decrease. The capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.8% to 50.2%. The weekly average profit was - 468.0 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin increased by 1.3 percentage points [8]. - Inventory: The production enterprise inventory was 1.407 million tons, a 0.4% increase. It's expected to remain high in the next period [12]. - Price: The enterprise - level average price of 70g double - offset paper was 4,642.9 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [39]. - **Copper - plate Paper**: - Supply: Production increased by 1,000 tons to 84,000 tons, a 1.2% increase. The capacity utilization rate increased by 0.4% to 62.0%. The weekly average profit was - 5.5 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin increased by 1.1 percentage points [16]. - Inventory: The production enterprise inventory was 383,000 tons, a 1.6% increase. It may continue to increase slightly in the next period [20]. - Price: The enterprise - level average price of 157g copper - plate paper was 4,975.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [39]. - **Domestic Pulp**: - Supply: The production of broad - leaf pulp decreased by 300 tons to 24,900 tons, and the production of chemimechanical pulp increased by 100 tons to 23,800 tons [23]. - Profit: The production profit of domestic broad - leaf pulp remained stable, and the overall profit was better than that of chemimechanical pulp [23]. - **Wood Pulp**: - Supply: The market price of domestic chemimechanical pulp remained at 2,575 yuan/ton. The port inventory was 2.068 million tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous period, and has been rising for three consecutive weeks [27]. - **Pulp Demand - Tissue Paper**: - Supply: The production was 293,500 tons, a 0.17% increase. The capacity utilization rate was 68.96%, a 0.9 - percentage - point increase [31]. - Inventory: The inventory was 629,500 tons, a 0.22% decrease. The inventory days were 20.51 days, a 0.19% decrease [31]. - **Pulp Demand - White Cardboard**: - Inventory: The production factory inventory was 1.07 million tons, a 0.47% decrease. Production and inventory are expected to continue to decline in the next period [35]. - **Prices**: - Double - offset and Copper - plate Paper: The prices of 70g double - offset paper and 157g copper - plate paper remained unchanged from the previous period [39]. - Various Pulps: The average spot -含税 price of imported softwood pulp decreased by 2.8% to 5,388 yuan/ton; the average spot -含税 price of broad - leaf pulp decreased by 1.2% to 4,671 yuan/ton; the average spot -含税 price of chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 3,800 yuan/ton; the average spot -含税 price of unbleached pulp decreased by 0.6% to 5,000 yuan/ton [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall financial market shows a complex and volatile trend, with different sectors affected by various factors such as macro - economic data, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand relationships. For example, the stock index futures market is affected by risk preferences and commodity price fluctuations; the bond market has opportunities due to the change of risk preferences; the agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as weather, trade relations, and supply and demand; the black metal market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and downstream demand; the non - ferrous metal market is influenced by factors such as the US economic data, geopolitical risks, and supply and demand; the energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply and demand, and cost [19][22][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Core view: Risk preferences continue to decline, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a slightly stronger direction due to the strength of heavy - weight stocks. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on dips; for arbitrage, conduct IM\IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use bull spreads [20][21] Bond Index Futures - Core view: Risk preferences are fluctuating. The bond market performs relatively strongly, but the sentiment is still cautious. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on dips for TF and T contracts; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [22][23] Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Core view: The demand side of US soybeans has improved, and the domestic soybean meal cost is supported, but the supply is becoming looser. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be on the sidelines in the short term; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, use the short straddle strategy [25][26] Sugar - Core view: International sugar prices are at the bottom and oscillating, while domestic sugar prices are relatively strong and are also expected to oscillate at the bottom. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to pay attention to whether the previous low of international sugar prices can be effectively broken, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [31][32][33] Oil and Fat Sector - Core view: Oils and fats maintain a wide - range oscillation. The market is affected by factors such as trade and policy expectations, and there is a callback demand. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to short on rallies lightly or go long on dips after the callback; for arbitrage, consider the y59 reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [34][35] Corn/Corn Starch - Core view: The spot price in the production area is stable, and the futures price oscillates weakly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on the US 03 corn contract after it stabilizes and short on the 03 corn contract lightly on rallies; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch; for options, stay on the sidelines [37][38] Live Pigs - Core view: The supply pressure has improved, and the spot price has risen slightly, but there is still pressure in the follow - up. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading and arbitrage are recommended to be on the sidelines; for options, use the short straddle strategy [40][41] Peanuts - Core view: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates in a narrow range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to short on rallies lightly for the 03 peanut contract; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the pk603 - C - 8200 option [42][43][44] Eggs - Core view: Pre - festival stocking is coming to an end, and egg prices have fallen. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to short on rallies for the June contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [45][46][47] Apples - Core view: Pre - festival sales are good, and apple prices are firm. The May contract price is expected to rise easily and fall hard. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go long on dips for the May contract and short on rallies for the October contract; for arbitrage, long the May contract and short the October contract; for options, stay on the sidelines [48][49][50] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Core view: The fundamentals change little, and cotton prices are supported. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go long on dips for the Zhengzhou cotton contract in the short term; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [52][53] Black Metals Steel - Core view: The demand is weakening marginally, and steel prices continue to oscillate following raw materials. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to follow the raw materials and oscillate weakly; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and continue to hold the short position of the coil - screw spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [55][56] Coking Coal and Coke - Core view: The market is mainly driven by funds and emotions, with large fluctuations. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to trade in bands and wait for opportunities to go long on dips; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [57][58][59] Iron Ore - Core view: Market expectations are fluctuating, and iron ore prices are running weakly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be weak; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [60][61] Ferroalloys - Core view: The cost support is strong, and the previous long positions can be held. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to hold the previous long positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the out - of - the - money put options [62][63] Non - ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Core view: Pessimistic sentiment is spreading, and short - term fluctuations are intensifying. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options are recommended to stay on the sidelines [65][67][68] Platinum and Palladium - Core view: Under the strong US dollar, the metals are oscillating. Be cautious when participating in unilateral trading. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on dips cautiously; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [68][69] Copper - Core view: Pay attention to the change of sentiment before the Spring Festival. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate cautiously; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [70][73][74] Alumina - Core view: Short - term marginal changes in production capacity cause fluctuations. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate strongly in the short term; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [75][76][77] Electrolytic Aluminum - Core view: Wait for the volatility to decline before the Spring Festival, and the medium - term expectation remains unchanged. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be cautious; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [78][79] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Core view: Oscillate following the sector. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options are recommended to stay on the sidelines [80][81] Zinc - Core view: Pay attention to the change of market sentiment. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to hold the short positions and move the stop - loss line down; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [82][84][85] Lead - Core view: Oscillate within a range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate weakly within a range; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [86][88] Nickel - Core view: Oscillate following the non - ferrous metal sector. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then go long; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [89][91] Stainless Steel - Core view: Supported by cost, follow the nickel price. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines before the Spring Festival and go long on dips after the price stabilizes; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [93][96] Industrial Silicon - Core view: The expectation of organic silicon production reduction increases, revising the previous view. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate within the range; for arbitrage and options, there is no recommendation for now [97][99] Polysilicon - Core view: Industry self - discipline and price - support expectations rise again, and the market fluctuates more. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be strong in oscillation and operate cautiously; for arbitrage and options, there is no recommendation for now [100][101] Lithium Carbonate - Core view: Before the Spring Festival, it is dominated by sentiment, and wait for the volatility to decline. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to reduce the exposure; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the out - of - the - money put options after the price stabilizes [102][104] Tin - Core view: Pay attention to the market sentiment. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate cautiously; for options, stay on the sidelines [105][106] Shipping Container Shipping - Core view: Shipping companies announce price increases in March, and pay attention to the geopolitical situation in Iran. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage, conduct the 6 - 10 calendar spread [107][108][109] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Core view: Wait for the outcome of events. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be weak in oscillation; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [110][111][113] Asphalt - Core view: There are still concerns about the increase in raw material costs and supply gaps in the medium term. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate at a high level and go long on dips for the BU2606 contract; for arbitrage, pay attention to the long BU and short LU spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [114][115][116] Fuel Oil - Core view: The high - sulfur spot market is always strong, and pay attention to the short - term geopolitical risks. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate strongly and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the FU59 calendar spread and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [118][119][120] LPG - Core view: Oscillate and consolidate before the Spring Festival. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [121][123] Natural Gas - Core view: Geopolitical risks reach a critical point, and cold weather is about to affect Eurasia. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to continue to hold the short positions for the TTF and JKM third - quarter contracts and the HH second - quarter contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [123][124] PX&PTA - Core view: Polyester production cuts are gradually implemented, and textile sales are gradually stopping. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate and consolidate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [126][127] BZ&EB - Core view: The supply - demand balance is expected to improve, and benzene ethylene is in a stage of destocking. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate at a high level; for arbitrage, conduct the calendar spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [128][130][131] Ethylene Glycol - Core view: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate weakly; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [132][133] Short - fiber - Core view: Short - fiber factories reduce production as planned. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate and consolidate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [134][135] Bottle Chips - Core view: The processing margin is strengthening. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate and consolidate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [136][137] Propylene - Core view: The supply - demand support is acceptable, and the spot price is running strongly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate at a high level; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [139][140][141] Plastic PP - Core view: The PP production profit margin has improved slightly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the L 2605 contract and the PP 2605 contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [142][143] Caustic Soda - Core view: The caustic soda price is weak. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate weakly; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [144][146][147] PVC - Core view: Oscillate in a wide range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go long on dips; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [150][151] Soda Ash - Core view: The price is weakening. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go short on rallies before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage, short glass and long soda ash; for options, short the call options [152][155][156] Glass - Core view: The price is weakening. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go short on rallies before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage, short glass and long soda ash; for options, short the call options [157][159] Methanol - Core view: Run weakly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, pay attention to the 59 calendar spread; for options, short the put options on the callback [160][161][164] Urea - Core view: The market turns weak again. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [165][167] Pulp - Core view: The pulp price continues to oscillate in a wide range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate within the range and long on dips for aggressive investors; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the SP2605 - C - 5350 option [168][169][171] Offset Printing Paper - Core view: High inventory suppresses the paper price. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go short on rallies; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the OP2604 - C - 4200 option [171][172][178] Logs - Core view: The change of delivery rules is beneficial to the log valuation. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to hold the long positions; for arbitrage, pay attention to the 3 - 5 reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [175][176][180] Natural Rubber and 20 -号 Rubber - Core view: As the Spring Festival approaches, the tire production starts to increase marginally. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the RU 05 contract and the NR 04 contract; for arbitrage, hold the NR2605 - RU2605 spread; for options, reduce the position of the RU2605 call 18250 contract and stay on the sidelines [180][181][183] Butadiene Rubber - Core view: The synthetic rubber inventory turns to year - on - year destocking. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the BR 04 contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [184][185][186]