期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 24 日 0 / 49 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：关税再生波折 结构行情仍在 3 | | --- | | 国债期货："两会"临近，关注相关政策信息 4 | | 蛋白粕：市场扰动增加 | 盘面震荡运行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：宏观不确定再增 | 国际糖价上涨 5 | | 油脂板块：地缘扰动再起，油脂波动增加 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货稳定，盘面高位震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力明显 | 价格继续下行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：节后进入淡季 | 蛋价稳中有落 10 | | 苹果：去库速度尚可，果价震荡偏强 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：节后钢材压力仍存 14 | | --- | | 双焦：煤矿陆续复产，关注国内外煤炭市场变化 14 | | 铁矿：基本面持续弱化，矿价偏弱运行 15 | | 铁合金：成本支撑较强，逢低作为多头配置 16 | | 金银：宏观不确定性增加 延续低多思路 17 | | ...

BR 日报 【银河期货】丁二烯橡胶每日早盘观察（26-02-24） 丁二烯橡胶：节前仓库仓单大幅累库 【市场情况】 BR 丁二烯橡胶相关：BR 主力 04 合约报收 12590 点，下跌-190 点或- 1.49%。截至前日 18 时，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收 12500-12600 元/吨，山东民 营顺丁报收 12200-12300 元/吨，华东市场扬子石化顺丁报收 12600 元/吨，华南 地区茂名石化顺丁报收 12500-12700 元/吨。山东地区抚顺石化丁苯 1502 报收 12800-12900 元/吨。山东地区丁二烯报收 10600-10700 元/吨。 RU/NR 天然橡胶相关：RU 主力 05 合约报收 16315 点，下跌-135 点或- 0.82%。日胶主连报收 354.5 点，节中累计上涨+7.4 点或+2.1%。截至前日 12 时， 销地 WF 报收 16150-16200 元/吨，越南 3L 混合报收 16700 元/吨。NR 主力 04 合约报收 1380 点，下跌-190 点或-1.42%；新加坡 TF 主力 05 合约报收 193.8 点，节中累计上涨+2.0 点或+1.0% ...

L&PP 日报 【银河期货】塑料 PP 每日早盘观察（26-02-24） 塑料 L 及 PP：L 仓单持平，PP 仓单累库 【市场情况】 【逻辑分析】 截至节前：大商所 L 合约注册仓单维持在 0.94 万吨，同比累库+43.2%；大商所 PP 合约注册仓单累库+6.6%至 1.87 万吨，同比累库+94.2%。1 月，LLDPE 月度检修 损失量增长至 13.4 万吨，同比增长+37.1%，涨幅扩大，利多 L。 【交易策略】 1.单边：L 主力 2605 合约观望，关注 6600 点前期低位处的支撑；PP 主力 2605 合约少量试空，宜在 6620 点近日低位处设置止损。 L 塑料相关：L 主力 2605 合约报收 6644 点，下跌-90 点或-1.34%。LLDPE 市场 价格横盘整理，节前业者多已离市，报盘稳定为主，市场有价无市。华北大区 LLDPE 主流成交价格在 6520-6900 元/吨，价格稳定。华东大区 LLDPE 主流成交价格在 6620-7000 元/吨，区间价格稳定。 PP 聚丙烯相关：PP 主力 2605 合约报收 6568 点，下跌-80 点或-1.20%。节前国 内 PP 市场 ...

RU、NR 日报 【银河期货】天然橡胶及 20 号胶每日早盘观察（26-02-24） 天然橡胶及 20 号胶：外盘走强 【市场情况】 RU 天然橡胶相关：RU 主力 05 合约报收 16315 点，下跌-135 点或-0.82%。 日胶主连报收 354.5 点，节中累计上涨+7.4 点或+2.1%。截至前日 12 时，销地 WF 报收 16150-16200 元/吨，越南 3L 混合报收 16700 元/吨，泰国烟片报收 18400-18500 元/吨，产地标二报收 14200-14300 元/吨。 NR 20 号胶相关：NR 主力 04 合约报收 1380 点，下跌-190 点或-1.42%；新 加坡 TF 主力 05 合约报收 193.8 点，节中累计上涨+2.0 点或+1.0%。截至前日 18 时，烟片胶船货报收 2280-2300 美元/吨，泰标近港船货报收 1960-1980 美元/ 吨，泰混近港船货报收 1960-1980 美元/吨，马标近港船货报收 1950-1970 美元/ 吨，人民币混合胶现货报收 15250-15300 元/吨。 BR 丁二烯橡胶相关：BR 主力 04 合约报收 12590 ...

Report Date - The report is dated February 13, 2026 [2] Bond Futures Transaction Summary Overall Transaction - The total trading volume of all bond futures was 208,389,000, a 64% increase; the total turnover was 226.1 billion, a 64% increase; the total open interest was 333,516,000, a decrease of 16,937,000; and the total margin for open positions was 72.4 billion [3] Different Contracts - **T Contracts**: The closing prices of T2603, T2606, and T2609 decreased by 0.10%, 0.06%, and 0.03% respectively; the trading volumes increased by 58%, 69%, and 280% respectively; the turnovers increased by 58%, 69%, and 280% respectively; the open interests of T2603 decreased by 40,918, while T2606 increased by 23,718, and T2609 had 7,646 open positions; the margin for open positions was 31.1 billion, 39.7 billion, and 1.7 billion respectively [3] - **TF Contracts**: The closing prices of TF2603, TF2606, and TF2609 decreased by 0.09%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively; the trading volumes increased by 26%, 116%, and 6% respectively; the turnovers increased by 26%, 116%, and 6% respectively; the open interests of TF2603 decreased by 22,141, while TF2606 increased by 21,660, and TF2609 had 9,030 open positions; the margin for open positions was 6.7 billion, 16.3 billion, and 1.1 billion respectively [3] - **TL Contracts**: The closing prices of TL2603, TL2606, and TL2609 increased by 0.04%, 0.06%, and 0.08% respectively; the trading volumes increased by 55%, 96%, and 79% respectively; the turnovers increased by 55%, 96%, and 78% respectively; the open interests of TL2603 decreased by 15,702, while TL2606 increased by 8,103, and TL2609 had 8,194 open positions; the margin for open positions was 28.3 billion, 40.2 billion, and 3.2 billion respectively [3] - **TS Contracts**: The closing prices of TS2603, TS2606, and TS2609 decreased by 0.03%, 0.02%, and 0.01% respectively; the trading volumes of TS2603 decreased by 25%, TS2606 increased by 31%, and TS2609 decreased by 13%; the turnovers decreased by 25%, increased by 31%, and decreased by 13% respectively; the open interests of TS2603 decreased by 7,354, while TS2606 increased by 6,904, and TS2609 had 1,310 open positions; the margin for open positions was 2.8 billion, 4.4 billion, and 0.1 billion respectively; the total trading volume decreased by 8%, the turnover decreased by 8%, the open interest decreased by 426, and the margin for open positions was 7.4 billion [3] Bond Futures Net Open Interest - The report presents the net open interest trends of two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year bond futures, including the net open interest changes of the top five, top ten, and top twenty positions over time, but specific data mainly shows the percentage range and time points [5][7][8] Bond Futures Open Interest Positions Two - Year Bond Futures - **2603 Contract**: In terms of trading volume, Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) had 12,054 contracts with a decrease of 2,364; in terms of long positions, Ping'an Futures (on behalf of clients) had 4,275 contracts with an increase of 2,105; in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had 6,643 contracts with a decrease of 1,326 [10] - **2606 Contract**: CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest trading volume of 12,428 contracts with an increase of 7,024; CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest long positions of 7,372 contracts with an increase of 901; Guotai Jun'an (on behalf of clients) had the highest short positions of 11,516 contracts with an increase of 1,457 [12] Five - Year Bond Futures - **2603 Contract**: CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest trading volume of 32,446 contracts with an increase of 6,174; CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest long positions of 9,118 contracts with a decrease of 2,336; Guotai Jun'an (on behalf of clients) had the highest short positions of 11,904 contracts with a decrease of 3,088 [13] - **2606 Contract**: CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had a trading volume of 31,735 contracts with an increase of 16,320; Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest long positions (in the table's ranking logic) of 27,608 contracts with an increase of 1,231; CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest short positions of 22,797 contracts with an increase of 2,144 [16] Ten - Year Bond Futures - **2603 Contract**: CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest trading volume of 62,002 contracts with an increase of 22,265; CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had long positions of 24,772 contracts with a decrease of 7,533; Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest short positions of 19,215 contracts with a decrease of 6,417 [17] - **2606 Contract**: CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had a trading volume of 38,484 contracts with an increase of 11,527; CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest long positions of 40,782 contracts with an increase of 6,077; CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) also had relatively high short positions of 27,944 contracts with an increase of 3,071 [20] Thirty - Year Bond Futures - **2603 Contract**: CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest trading volume of 43,495 contracts with an increase of 19,652; Guotai Jun'an (on behalf of clients) had the highest long positions of 13,808 contracts with a decrease of 2,622; Guotai Jun'an (on behalf of clients) also had the highest short positions of 13,662 contracts with a decrease of 1,636 [22] - **2606 Contract**: CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had a trading volume of 27,528 contracts with an increase of 13,548; CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest long positions of 18,524 contracts; Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest short positions of 16,346 contracts with an increase of 710 [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view presented in the given content 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market Data - DCE01 remained unchanged at 733.5, DCE05 decreased by 0.5 to 762.0, and DCE09 remained at 745.0 [2] - The spread I01 - I05 increased by 0.5 to -28.5, I05 - I09 decreased by 0.5 to 17.0, and I09 - I01 remained at 11.5 [2] Spot Market Data - Prices of most iron ore spot varieties remained stable, with some minor changes like FMG increasing by 1, SP10 increasing by 4, and Ukrainian concentrate increasing by 8 [2] - The optimal deliverable was BRBF(63%) with a price of 803, 01 - contract basis of 62, 05 - contract basis of 33, and 09 - contract basis of 50 [2] Spot Variety Spread and Import Profit - Some spreads remained stable (e.g., Carajás - PB powder at 97), while others changed slightly (e.g., Newman lump - Newman powder increased by 2) [2] - Import profits also had minor changes: Carajás increased by 1 to 0, Newman powder decreased by 1 to 48, etc. [2] Index Data - The Platts 61% iron ore price decreased by 0.3 to 100.0, 65% remained at 116.5, and 58% decreased by 0.3 to 92.0 [2] - The SGX - DCE spreads remained mostly unchanged (e.g., SGX main - DCE01 at 4.1) [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the content Group 2: Core View - The market has reached a consensus on the low inventory and poor quality of apples in cold storage this year. The point of divergence lies in the demand situation. The pre - Spring Festival market restocking was okay, with the apple outbound volume from cold storage at a medium level compared to the same period in previous years, causing the year - on - year decline in recent cold storage inventory data to widen again. The apple warehouse receipt cost this season is high, around 9700 - 10000 yuan/ton. As the March contract will enter the delivery period after the Spring Festival, the market may trade on the warehouse receipt cost issue, so it is expected that the price of the May contract will remain in a short - term upward trend [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index is 107.22, down 0.30 from the next working day. Prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remain unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.98 yuan, up 0.01 from the next working day [2] - **Futures Prices**: AP01 is at 8209, up 56 from yesterday's close; AP05 is at 9739, up 138; AP10 is at 8318, up 60. The spreads between different contracts also show corresponding changes [2] - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against different futures contracts shows a downward trend [2] Second Part: Market News and Views - **Market News**: As of February 4, 2026, the inventory of apples in cold storage in major producing areas across the country is 619.81 million tons, a decrease of 34.25 million tons compared to last week, with the destocking speed accelerating compared to the previous week and higher than the same period last year. In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The import volume was 3100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The annual cumulative import volume in 2025 was 116,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. The mainstream prices of apples in the production areas are stable, with the cold storage packaging in Shandong nearing completion and more cold storages in the northwest region still packaging and shipping [7] - **Trading Logic**: Due to low cold - storage inventory, poor apple quality, and high warehouse - receipt costs, the price of the May contract is expected to remain strong in the short term [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the May contract on dips, go short on the October contract on rallies; conduct a long - May and short - October arbitrage; and it is recommended to wait and see for options [8] Third Part: Related Attachments - The content includes multiple charts such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volumes in certain markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][11][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches and the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, the previous good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption off - season starts after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction. Therefore, one can consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3787 with no change from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3444, up 69 from the previous day; JD09 closed at 3849, up 52 from the previous day [2]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was 343, down 69 from the previous day; the 05 - 09 spread was - 405, up 17 from the previous day; the 09 - 01 spread was 62, up 52 from the previous day [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.66 with no change; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.48, up 0.03; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.65, up 0.02. The 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.28, down 0.01; the 05 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.23, up 0.02; the 09 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.33, up 0.01 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.28 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.54 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous trading day. Most regional prices remained stable, with only a few showing minor fluctuations. For example, the price in Shangqiu dropped by 0.1 yuan/jin [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous trading day. Most regional prices remained stable [2][5]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of culled chickens was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicken seedlings was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The average price of corn was 2372 yuan, up 2 yuan; the average price of soybean meal was 3164 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - chicken compound feed was 2.61 yuan, unchanged [2]. - **Profits**: The profit per chicken was 12.18 yuan, down 0.67 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Production and Sales**: In January, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than the previous expectation. The monthly output of chicken seedlings in January was about 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9%, with little year - on - year change. As of the week of February 5, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7210 tons, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous week, which was at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [4][5]. - **Culling Situation**: In the week of February 6, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 16.55 million, a 2% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 495 days, a 2 - day increase from the previous week [5][6]. - **Inventory and Profit**: As of the week of February 5, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.07 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week. The average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.52 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/jin from the previous week. On February 6, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 12.65 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 0.37 yuan per jin from the previous week [5]. 3.5 Trading Logic - As the Spring Festival approaches and the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, the previous good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption off - season starts after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction [6]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Consider short - selling the June contract on rallies. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a shipping research report released on February 12, 2026, focusing on container shipping, specifically the Container Shipping Index (European Line) [1][2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - EC2604 closed at 1,258.9 points on February 12, up 6.88% from the previous day's close, with a trading volume of 36,394 lots (up 111.54%) and an open interest of 31,021 lots (down 6.07%) [4] - Other contracts also showed varying degrees of price increases, trading volume changes, and open interest adjustments [4] Spread Structure - The spread between different contract months showed fluctuations, such as the EC04 - EC06 spread being -307, up 15.9 [4] Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European Line was reported at 1,657.94 points on February 6, down 1.06% month - on - month, and the EC2602 delivery settlement price was 1,769.8 points [6] - Most container freight rates showed a downward trend week - on - week and year - on - year, with some exceptions like the SCFIS US West Line showing a 4.93% week - on - week increase [4] Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month price was $64.79 per barrel, up 1.12% month - on - month and down 10.16% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month price was $68.95 per barrel, up 0.79% month - on - month and down 9.0% year - on - year [4] Group 3: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - The risk of the escalation of the Iranian situation remains. Short - selling funds left the market for risk - avoidance before the holiday, driving the market up [6] - Spot freight rates may remain weak. Some shipping companies' price increase expectations have loosened, and the post - holiday period is still in the off - season [7] - In terms of fundamentals, the demand side is seeing a decline after reaching a peak, and the supply side's weekly average capacity deployment has little change compared to the previous period [7] - Geopolitical factors are volatile, and it is still difficult for a large - scale resumption of European routes in the first half of the year [7] Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Do not hold positions during the holiday and maintain a short - term wait - and - see attitude as the off - season in April does not warrant high expectations [8] - Arbitrage: Conduct rolling operations on the 6 - 10 positive spread [9] Group 4: Industry News - According to Wall Street Journal, the US Department of Defense has instructed a second aircraft carrier strike group to prepare for deployment to the Middle East, and the deployment order may be issued within hours [12] - Trump's meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has begun according to the AXIOS website [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes several figures, such as the SCFIS European Line Index and SCFIS US West Line Index, SCFI Composite Index, and container freight rates for different routes [15][20][26]

研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2026 年 2 月 12 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 白糖数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/2/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | 5,259 | -16 | -0.30% | 14,498 | 1704 | 123,337 | 21 | | SR01 | 5,367 | -13 | -0.24% | 423 | 164 | 4,416 | 175 | | SR05 | 5,254 | -12 | -0.23% | 146,436 | -10732 | 443,331 | -8525 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日照 | 西安 | | 今日报价 | 5370 | 5175 | 5620 | 5360 | 5435 | 5430 | 5 ...