Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The issuance of 300,000 tons of import sliding - duty quotas is likely to benefit US cotton, narrowing the domestic - foreign price difference. The impact on domestic cotton supply is relatively small, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton may follow the upward trend of US cotton. Although cotton has declined due to the overall market atmosphere, the decline is expected to be limited [6]. - In the short - term, US cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton change little. It is advisable to build long positions on dips rather than chasing highs. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: - CF01 closed at 15,605, down 25; CF05 at 15,150, down 60; CF09 at 15,255, down 50; CY05 at 21,285, down 15; CY09 at 21,250, up 15. CY01 had no trading [2]. - The trading volume and open interest of each contract changed to varying degrees, with significant decreases in the trading volume of CF05 and CF09 [2]. - **Spot Market**: - CCIndex3128B was 16,722 yuan/ton, down 99; CY IndexC32S was 22,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; A (Cot) was 79.35 cents/pound; FCY IndexC33S was 22,628 yuan/ton, up 60 [2]. - The prices of other products such as polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc. also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Price Spreads**: - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 455, up 35; 5 - 9 spread was - 105, down 10; 9 - 1 spread was - 350, down 25 [2]. - Cotton - yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 21,285, up 15; 5 - 9 spread was 35, down 30; 9 - 1 spread was 21,250, up 15 [2]. - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was (15,605), up 25; CY05 - CF05 was 6,135, up 45; CY09 - CF09 was 5,995, up 65 [2]. - Domestic - foreign spreads: The 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 2,699, down 701; the sliding - duty domestic - foreign cotton spread was - 1,331, down 338; the domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 578, down 60 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: - As of March 17, the drought index of the main US cotton - producing areas decreased slightly, but the drought level in the main areas and Texas remained relatively high. Drought is expected to continue from March to June, with intensification in the Midwest and relief in the eastern regions [4]. - On March 23, 2026, the Xinjiang cotton road transportation price index was 0.1553 yuan/ton·km, down 1.46% month - on - month. The index may fluctuate due to energy price changes [4]. - Pakistani yarn mills raised domestic yarn prices due to rising raw material costs and potential increases in energy expenses. Export yarn inquiries increased, and the prices of 20/21 and 30/32 combed yarns rose by 7% and 5% respectively compared to early March. The price of polyester staple fiber rose by 13% [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The issuance of 300,000 tons of import sliding - duty quotas is likely to benefit US cotton and narrow the domestic - foreign price difference, with limited impact on domestic cotton supply. Zhengzhou cotton may follow the upward trend of US cotton. Although cotton has declined due to the overall market atmosphere, the decline is expected to be limited [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: - Unilateral: In the short - term, US cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton change little. It is advisable to build long positions on dips rather than chasing highs [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Wait and see [7]. - **Cotton - yarn Industry News**: - Spinning enterprises are actively purchasing raw materials. The pure - cotton yarn market has good trading, but downstream orders are weakening. Spinning enterprises are reluctant to lower prices, and the transaction price center has little change [8]. - The all - cotton grey fabric market has little change, with continuous sales. Weaving factories have ongoing orders, mainly for domestic sales. Export inquiries are active, but orders need further confirmation. Fabric prices are stable, and factories are trying to reduce inventory [8]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price difference, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [9][11][15][16][18][19][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall capacity reduction has slowed down due to the good profit performance in the early stage, which has decreased the market's enthusiasm for culling. Considering that the egg consumption enters the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg price performance has weakened the overall capacity reduction. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract at high prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3685, up 16 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3443, up 34; JD09 closed at 3808, up 14 [2]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was 242, down 18; the 05 - 09 spread was - 365, up 20; the 09 - 01 spread was 123, down 2 [2]. - **Price Ratios**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.54, down 0.01; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.19, unchanged; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.43, unchanged; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.14, up 0.02; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, down 0.01; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.25, up 0.01 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.27 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.47 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 5.07 yuan/jin, down 0.14 yuan/jin from the previous day [2][7]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of corn was 2453 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the average price of bean meal was 3372 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.73 yuan, unchanged [2]. - **Profits**: The profit per chicken was 8.50 yuan, up 0.44 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Prices**: The national mainstream egg prices mostly remained stable, with prices in many regions such as Beijing, Northeast China, and Shandong remaining unchanged. The egg prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate, and the sales were normal [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, higher than expected. The monthly output of egg - laying chicken chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 43.3 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [4]. - **Culled Chicken Data**: In the week of March 5th, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 10.94 million, an increase of 24% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales**: As of the week of March 5th, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7304 tons, an increase of 1.5% from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of the week of March 5th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.29 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week; on February 27th, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 11.85 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 1.27 yuan/jin from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [5][6][7]. 3.5 Trading Logic The good profit performance in the early stage has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the off - season of egg consumption after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg price performance has weakened the overall capacity reduction. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract at high prices [8]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Consider shorting the June contract at high prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report, March 23, 2026 [2] - Report Type: Agricultural Product R & D Report [1] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price of 5,482, up 13 (0.24%), trading volume of 162,113, up 50,772, open interest of 243,165, up 8,798 [3] - SR01: Closing price of 5,620, up 24 (0.43%), trading volume of 9,454, up 4,626, open interest of 23,094, up 2,913 [3] - SR05: Closing price of 5,453, up 14 (0.26%), trading volume of 402,573, up 54,949, open interest of 340,678, down 13,362 [3] Spot Market - Prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5,500 (up 30), Kunming 5,330 (up 15), Wuhan 5,790 (up 20), Nanning 5,490 (up 30), Rizhao 5,650 (up 10), Xi'an 5,940 (up 20) [3] - Basis: Liuzhou 47, Kunming -123, Wuhan 337, Nanning 37, Rizhao 197, Xi'an 487 [3] Inter - Month Spreads - SR05 - SR01 spread: -167, down 10; SR09 - SR05 spread: 29, down 1; SR09 - SR01 spread: -138, down 11 [3] Import Profits - Brazilian imports: Quota - in price 5,474, with a spread of 26 compared to Liuzhou and -21 compared to the futures market [3] - Thai imports: Quota - in price 5,391, with a spread of 109 compared to Liuzhou and 62 compared to the futures market [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Important Information - As of March 22, 2026, 23 sugar mills in Guangxi have completed the crushing process in the 25/26 season, 48 less than the same period last year, with a daily crushing capacity of 225,000 tons, 310,000 tons less than last year [5] - Spot prices in major producing areas are generally stable, with average trading volume [6] - In 2025, Russia's sugar exports to Uzbekistan reached 417,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons. Since the beginning of 2026, sugar exports have exceeded 80,000 tons, nearly three times that of the same period last year [8] Logical Analysis - Internationally, the sugar production increase in India this season is likely to be lower than expected, and global sugar production forecasts for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons have been downgraded, supporting international sugar prices [9] - Domestically, the sugar production in the current season is likely to increase significantly, and the large import volume from January to February has a negative impact on the market. However, considering the low sugar price and the narrowing of the domestic - international price gap, domestic sugar prices are expected to rise slightly [9] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be bullish, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high [10] - Arbitrage: Hold off [16] - Options: Sell put options [16] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan's monthly inventory, monthly production, Liuzhou sugar spot price, price spreads, and basis for different contract months [12][18][20][24][25][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran has led to a significant reduction in imported methanol, driving up the price of domestic methanol. The profit of coal - to - methanol has expanded rapidly to around 800 - 850 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is continuously loose. However, due to the ongoing conflict, the market fears a sharp reduction in future imports, and the inventory in ports is rapidly decreasing. The supply shortage problem in domestic ports is becoming increasingly prominent. With the restart of some downstream MTO devices, the situation of supply contraction and demand increase will accelerate port destocking. Methanol should be treated with a bullish mindset [4]. - The trading strategies include going long at low prices without chasing highs for single - sided trading, paying attention to positive spreads for arbitrage, and selling put options in the over - the - counter market [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - In the raw coal aspect, the coal mine start - up rate has increased. As of March 20, the start - up rate of coal mines in Ordos is 71%, and that in Yulin is 42%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin is around 4.1 million tons. With the improvement of demand, the pit - mouth price has stopped falling and started to rise. The price of raw coal is generally stable, and the profit of coal - to - methanol has expanded rapidly [4]. - On the supply side, in March, due to the intensification of the US - Iran conflict, the import of methanol has significantly decreased, driving up the price of domestic methanol. The methanol start - up rate remains high and stable, and the domestic supply is continuously loose. The methanol plants in Iran are still in a state of full - scale shutdown, and the daily output has dropped from 23,000 tons to around 1,200 tons. Although some devices are reported to have resumed production, the output is still low [4]. - On the demand side, the start - up rate of MTO devices is low. Some MTO devices are shut down or under - loaded, while some have the expectation of restart. The restart of downstream MTO devices will increase the demand for methanol [4]. - The inventory in ports is rapidly decreasing. As of March 18, 2026, the total port inventory is 1.2617 million tons, a decrease of 51,100 tons compared with the previous period. The import in April is expected to drop to around 550,000 tons, and the port destocking amplitude exceeds 300,000 tons. The supply shortage problem in domestic ports is becoming increasingly prominent [4]. - The trading strategies are: for single - sided trading, go long at low prices without chasing highs; for arbitrage, pay attention to positive spreads; in the over - the - counter market, sell put options [4]. 3.2 Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of March 19, the overall start - up load of domestic methanol plants is 78.11%, an increase of 1.84 percentage points compared with last week and 5.67 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The start - up load in the northwest region is 87.61%, an increase of 1.95 percentage points compared with last week and 4.91 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The average start - up load of non - integrated methanol plants is 72.00%, an increase of 1.45 percentage points compared with last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: In the period from March 14 to March 20, 2026, the international methanol (excluding China) output is 719,549 tons, an increase of 31,540 tons compared with last week. The device capacity utilization rate is 49.32%, a month - on - month increase of 2.16% [5]. - **Supply - Import**: In the period from March 12 to March 18, 2026, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol is 151,600 tons, including 131,000 tons of foreign vessels (all visible) and 20,600 tons of domestic vessels [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of March 19, 2026, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 40.23%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points compared with last week. The start - up rate of the national olefin devices is 85.57%, with the restart of the second - phase device of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei and the increase of the load of Tianjin Bohua [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is 5.49%. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is 85.4%, remaining flat. The start - up rate of formaldehyde is 42.43%, an increase compared with last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 55,400 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons compared with the previous statistical day, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.73% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprise**: As of March 18, 2026, the inventory of production enterprises is 485,400 tons, a decrease of 37,700 tons compared with the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 279,300 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons compared with the previous period [5]. - **Inventory - Port**: As of March 18, 2026, the total port inventory is 1.2617 million tons, a decrease of 51,100 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in the East China region has decreased by 27,600 tons, and that in the South China region has decreased by 23,500 tons [5]. - **Valuation**: The chemical coal in the northwest region has stopped falling and rebounded. The domestic methanol auction price has risen sharply. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 860 yuan/ton, and that in northern Shaanxi is 800 yuan/ton. The port - north line price difference is 700 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference is 270 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has significantly narrowed, and the basis is stable [5]. - **Spot Price**: The price in Taicang is 2,990 yuan/ton (+200), and the price in the north line is 2,300 yuan/ton (+160) [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal improvement of domestic macro - economic indicators from January to February is significant, but the absolute value of domestic demand growth is still low. External demand is the main driver of the improvement in the early - year fundamentals. The 1 - 2 month tax revenue growth turned slightly positive, and whether tax revenue and industrial enterprise profits can rise in sync with industrial product prices is an important factor to test the quality of PPI. The impact of energy supply disruptions on domestic industrial production is currently relatively controllable, and external demand may remain strong. The real - estate sales volume has seasonally increased, but there are few bright spots in prices, and the "price - for - volume" strategy in the second - hand housing market may continue. The impact of tax payments and government bond issuances on the capital market is limited, and market liquidity is expected to remain relatively loose, but the possibility of the central bank's liquidity management returning to a phased tight balance cannot be ruled out. The bond market lacks strong upward drivers, and it is recommended to wait and see. For the yield curve, it is advisable to consider a "left - hand" light - position attempt to short the 30Y - 7Y term spread [6][7]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Economic Data**: The domestic economic data from January to February showed significant marginal improvement, better than market expectations. However, the absolute value of domestic demand growth was still low, with fixed - asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods increasing by only 1.8% and 2.8% year - on - year respectively. External demand was the main driver of the improvement in the early - year fundamentals, and domestic demand needed further boosting [12]. - **Tax Revenue**: From January to February, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with tax revenue increasing by 0.1% and non - tax revenue by 3.4%. Tax revenue growth was still weak but improved compared to December last year. Whether tax revenue and industrial enterprise profits can rise in sync with industrial product prices is an important factor to test the quality of PPI [13]. - **High - Frequency Data**: In the chemical industry, the impact of energy supply disruptions on domestic industrial production was relatively controllable. In March's second week, port cargo throughput and container throughput rebounded, with year - on - year increases of 2.3% and 11.1% respectively, indicating strong external demand. The real - estate sales volume increased seasonally, but the second - hand housing "price - for - volume" strategy may continue, and the second - hand housing listing price index declined for the third consecutive week. The bill interest rate dropped slightly, with the 3M and 6 - month national - share transfer discount rates at 1.43% and 1.17% respectively, down 5bp and 6bp from last week [6][25][31]. - **Liquidity**: The impact of tax payments and government bond issuances on the capital market was limited. As of Friday, DR001 and DR007 were at 1.3207% and 1.4209% respectively, and the overnight and 7 - day non - bank capital spreads were 7.54bp and 5.60bp respectively. The 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock banks continued to decline, falling below 1.53%. Market liquidity is expected to remain relatively loose, but the central bank may return to a phased tight - balance liquidity management if external supply shocks persist [37]. - **Futures Market**: As of Friday, the IRRs of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were 1.2762%, 1.2858%, 1.3341%, and 0.5332% respectively. The futures market valuation was relatively low, indicating a cautious market sentiment. The net long - position ratios of the top ten seats in TS, TF, T, and TL were - 17.76%, - 6.96%, + 0.87%, and - 2.73% respectively, with changes of + 3.59, - 1.62, + 1.99, and + 2.16 percentage points from last Friday [42][43]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, it is advisable to consider a light - position attempt to short the 30Y - 7Y term spread (TL - 3T) [8]. Second Part: Relevant Data Tracking - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest data of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are presented, but specific analysis is not provided in the content [52]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spread data of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are presented [55]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The inter - commodity spread data of 2TS - TF, 3TF - 2T, 3T - TL, and TS + T - 2TF are presented [58]. - **Cash Bond Yield Curve and Spread**: The current and 5 - day - ago cash bond yield curves, weekly yield changes, key - term spreads, and the spreads between national bonds and local bonds are presented. The 30Y - 7Y term spread has reached a relatively high level in the past decade [61]. - **Historical Quantile of Term Spread**: The historical quantile data of 5Y - 2Y, 7Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 7Y term spreads are presented [64][65]. - **US Treasury Yield and Exchange Rate**: The data of the US 10 - year Treasury yield, 10Y US Treasury break - even inflation rate, US dollar index, and US dollar - offshore RMB exchange rate are presented [67].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: March 23, 2026 [1] - Report Type: Black Metal Daily Report (Ferroalloy Report) [1] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03134259 [2] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0021009 [2] - Contact Information: zhoutao_qh1@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF Main Contract: Closing price of 6120, daily change of 188, weekly change of 248, trading volume of 323,783 (down 85,765), open interest of 180,829 (up 1,101) [3] - SM Main Contract: Closing price of 6556, daily change of 156, weekly change of 394, trading volume of 668,201 (down 723,548), open interest of 405,033 (down 23,648) [3] Spot - Silicon Iron: Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase, with some areas rising by 50 - 150 yuan/ton [3][5] - Manganese Silicon: Spot prices in different regions increased by 40 - 150 yuan/ton, and manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port rose by 0.5 - 1.5 yuan/ton degree [3][6] Basis/Spread - Silicon Iron: Basis differences between different regions and the main contract showed changes, and the SF - SM spread was -436, with a daily change of 32 and a weekly change of -146 [3] - Manganese Silicon: Basis differences between different regions and the main contract also changed [3] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): Prices of different types of manganese ore increased, with daily changes of 0.5 - 1.5 yuan/ton degree and weekly changes of 1.5 - 2.7 yuan/ton degree [3] - Semi - coke: Prices in different regions remained stable [3] Group 3: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies Market Analysis - Silicon Iron: On March 23, the spot price increased. The supply side saw an increase in production after the price recovery, and the demand side was driven by the increase in steel production and demand. The cost side had a stable and slightly strong electricity price. In the short term, it was in a positive feedback of demand and cost, and was affected by the rise in energy prices, showing a short - term upward trend [5] - Manganese Silicon: On March 23, the manganese ore and manganese silicon spot prices increased. The supply side had a slight decline in production, but there was an expectation of an increase in the future. The demand side was also driven by the increase in steel production and demand. The cost side was affected by the increase in sea freight and the short - term disruption of manganese ore shipments due to the hurricane [6] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Driven by energy costs, in the positive feedback of demand and cost, the price showed a volatile upward trend [7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7] Group 4: Important Information - On March 23, the price of semi - carbonate Mn35.8% in Tianjin Port was 44 yuan/ton degree, the price of Gabon block was 47 - 48 yuan/ton degree, and the price of Australian block Mn42% was 46 - 47 yuan/ton degree [8] - The intensity of Hurricane "Narelle" has significantly weakened, and the actual impact on mining facilities is limited. The mining area is conducting a复产 assessment [8] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include the price trends of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, the monthly spread of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the spot price of silicon manganese, the electricity price for ferroalloys, the cost and profit of silicon iron and manganese silicon, etc. [16][18][21][23][26]

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 03 月 23 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 螺纹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货(元/吨) | | | | | | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | RB05 | 3154 | 3123 | 31 | HC05-RB05 | 176 | 174 | 2 | | RB10 | 3182 | 3151 | 31 | HC10-RB10 | 154 | 152 | 2 | | RB01 | 3209 | 3183 | 26 | HC01-RB01 | 136 | 129 | 7 | | RB01-RB05 | 55 | 60 | -5 | RB10-RB01 | -27 | -32 | 5 | | RB05-RB10 | -28 | -28 | 0 | | | | | | 05合约螺纹盘面利润 | -220 | -198 | -23 | RB05/105 | 3.85 | 3.83 | 0. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week's view was that the guidance price was suppressing, and the spot market was stable; this week's view is that due to policy suppression, urea will mainly fluctuate. Despite a decrease in daily output to around 210,000 tons, it remains at a high level. International supply has tightened due to the escalation of the US - Iran conflict, but the impact on the domestic market is limited as there are no new domestic quotas. Although the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has increased, procurement has basically stopped. After a significant inventory build - up during the Spring Festival, urea enterprise inventories started to decline this week. With the approaching demand, downstream buyers are starting to purchase, but the upside of the spot price is limited under policy suppression, and the futures will mainly fluctuate widely. It is expected that urea will continue to fluctuate. Key factors to watch are the Middle East situation and domestic policies. The trading strategy is to go short on a single - side basis without chasing the short, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Overview**: The mainstream ex - factory prices in major regions are firm, and the market sentiment is stable. In Shandong, the industrial compound fertilizer operating rate has declined, with sufficient raw material inventory and high finished product inventory. In Henan, the market sentiment has cooled, and the ex - factory price is firm. In the delivery area and the Northeast, the ex - factory price is expected to remain stable. Some domestic urea plants are under maintenance, and the daily output has decreased. International supply has tightened, but the domestic impact is limited. The compound fertilizer operating rate has increased, but procurement has stopped. Urea enterprise inventories are decreasing. With approaching demand, downstream purchases are increasing, but the upside of the spot price is limited by policies, and the futures will mainly fluctuate. The trading strategy is to go short on a single - side basis without chasing the short, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [4]. - **Core Data Changes**: In the 11th week of 2026 (20260312 - 0318), the utilization rate of coal - based urea production capacity in China was 97.42%, a 0.01% week - on - week decrease; the utilization rate of gas - based urea production capacity was 73.18%, a 5.10% week - on - week decrease. In Shandong, the urea production capacity utilization rate was 98.38%, a 3.01% week - on - week increase. In the 12th week of 2026 (20260313 - 0319), the average weekly utilization rate of China's melamine production capacity was 59.31%, a 5.96 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity in the period from 20260313 - 0319 was 49.97%, a 4.41 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. As of March 20, 2026, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,750 tons, a 6.71% week - on - week increase. This week (20260313 - 20260320), the urea arrival volume in the Northeast was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week. As of March 18, 2026, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 8.29 days, a 2.85% week - on - week increase. On March 18, 2026, the total inventory of urea enterprises was 808,900 tons, a 15.53% week - on - week decrease. As of March 19, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 167,000 tons, an 11.64% week - on - week decrease. In terms of profit, the production profit of urea was stable, with a fixed - bed production profit of 150 yuan/ton, a water - coal - slurry production profit of 240 yuan/ton, and an entrained - flow bed production profit of 460 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, the basis was near par, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 52 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Weekly Data Tracking - **Mainstream Manufacturer Ex - factory Prices**: No detailed content provided - **Basis**: No detailed content provided - **Regional Spread**: No detailed content provided - **Warehouse Receipts and Spread**: No detailed content provided - **Urea and Methanol Futures Spread**: No detailed content provided - **Raw Coal Price**: No detailed content provided - **Production Profit**: No detailed content provided - **Urea/Ammonia, Synthetic Ammonia Spread**: No detailed content provided - **Urea Operating Rate**: No detailed content provided - **Urea Output**: No detailed content provided - **Urea Pre - orders**: No detailed content provided - **Urea Inventory**: No detailed content provided - **Other Inventory Supply and Demand**: No detailed content provided - **Compound Fertilizer**: No detailed content provided - **Melamine**: No detailed content provided - **Urea Export**: No detailed content provided - **Furniture**: No detailed content provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The market outlook is recommended [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the end of 2025, multiple factors have jointly promoted the global "quasi-reflation trade", and commodities have shown a resonant upward trend. The attack by the US and Israel on Iran has significantly changed the previous macro - environment, and if the conflict persists, the financial market will likely shift towards a "recession" trade [1] - The impact of this attack on Iran on the crude - oil price far exceeds historical similar situations, and there are concerns that it will more severely affect the macro - economy. The gold price during this conflict may be weak, and the US dollar index may show more resilience in the short - to - medium term but will tend to weaken in the long run [1] - Copper prices are expected to rebound, but if the US dollar index is not weak in the short - to - medium term, the time for copper prices to bottom - out and rebound may be slower, and the increase may be limited. If the conflict lasts, the "stagflation" stage caused by supply constraints may not last, and the risk of commodity price decline in a "recession" environment is accumulating [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - perspective on Commodity Prices - **Before the attack**: Since December 2025, due to valuation repair, demand recovery, global interest - rate cuts and improved supply - demand at the micro - level, the commodity prices have gradually turned pro - cyclical, and the financial market has shown characteristics of "quasi - reflation trade" [11][13] - **After the attack**: The attack on February 28 has affected the macro - economic demand and monetary policy direction. The "quasi - reflation trade" environment has been damaged, and the financial market may enter a "recession" trading environment [18] 3.2 Historical Experience for Commodity Trends - **Impact on crude - oil prices**: In the seven armed conflicts the US participated in since World War II, the impact of this attack on Iran on crude - oil prices far exceeds historical similar situations, with an oil - price increase of 47.07% [31] - **Impact on gold prices**: During the Gulf War and this attack on Iran, gold prices declined. The main reason is that the market's expectation of monetary easing was postponed due to concerns about inflation [36][38] - **Impact on the US dollar index**: In the short - to - medium term, the US dollar index may be more resilient due to sufficient US oil production and the possible strengthening of the "oil - dollar" system, but it will tend to weaken in the long run [41] - **Impact on copper prices**: After conflicts, copper prices generally show a "U" - shaped trend. If the US dollar index is not weak in the short - to - medium term, the time for copper prices to bottom - out and rebound may be slower, and the increase may be limited [46][47] 3.3 Changes in Commodity Fundamentals Caused by the Attack - The attack has inhibited the export of products from the Middle East, affecting the production of products such as crude oil and the raw - material supply of downstream industries. If the conflict persists, the "stagflation" stage may not last, and the risk of commodity price decline in a "recession" environment is accumulating [53][57]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Crude oil price increases drive a significant rise in low-sulfur fuel oil prices. Domestic low-sulfur supply is expected to shrink due to geopolitical factors and reduced production by some major refineries. In the overseas market, production at some refineries is affected, leading to a decrease in low-sulfur supply and exports. Meanwhile, geopolitical conflicts increase concerns about supply tightening, and the demand for bunkering in Singapore is expected to grow, intensifying concerns about supply shortages. Attention should be paid to the start of power generation stockpiling and import demand in Saudi Arabia and Egypt in the second quarter [4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to go long on the near-month contract of LU when it pulls back; for arbitrage, conduct a reverse arbitrage on FU59 at high prices with limited space, enter a long spread on the near-month contract of LU at low prices, and expect the LU - FU05 to fluctuate at high levels. It is advisable to hold off on options trading [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Crude oil price increases drive a significant rise in low-sulfur fuel oil prices. Domestic low-sulfur supply is expected to shrink due to geopolitical factors and reduced production by some major refineries. In the overseas market, the Ruwais refinery in the UAE was attacked, suspending CDU capacity and affecting low-sulfur component output. The Al-Zour refinery is reducing production and is expected to undergo maintenance in April, and the Dangote refinery's gasoline unit has returned, reducing low-sulfur supply and exports. There is also a situation where low-sulfur logistics are diverted by the West. Singapore's current fuel oil inventory is at a high level, but due to the intensification of the conflict between the US, Iran, and Israel, the strait is blocked, and energy facilities in major supply regions such as Russia and the Middle East are continuously attacked, supply is expected to tighten. At the same time, bunkering at the Fujairah port is affected by geopolitical factors and fires, and the demand for bunkering may shift to Singapore, increasing the demand for bunkering in Singapore and further intensifying market concerns about supply shortages. Attention should be paid to the start of power generation stockpiling and import demand in Saudi Arabia and Egypt in the second quarter [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long on the near-month contract of LU when it pulls back. - Arbitrage: Conduct a reverse arbitrage on FU59 at high prices with limited space. Enter a long spread on the near-month contract of LU at low prices. The LU - FU05 is expected to fluctuate at high levels. - Options: Hold off on trading [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis High-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Supply**: The monthly increase in the cracking spread of Singapore's high-sulfur 380 is about $16 to $15 per barrel, and the weekly decrease is $4 (-21%). The spot window basis has increased by $56 to $70 per ton monthly and continued to rise by about $9 (+14%) weekly. Russia and Mexico's supply and exports have increased month-on-month, while Middle Eastern exports have stagnated. The inventory in the pan-Singapore region has continued to rise and is at a high level compared to the same period, with a large amount of Middle Eastern exports arriving in mid-to-late February [9][13]. - **Demand**: As the price of high-sulfur fuel oil rises, the economic efficiency of feedstock decreases, and refinery demand decreases. The terminal demand for power generation is accumulating, with the demand for power generation in South Asia in the second quarter and the Middle East in the third quarter, and there is alternative demand due to the sharp rise in natural gas prices [13]. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Supply**: The Dangote refinery's RFCC unit has been operating stably since February, significantly reducing low-sulfur output. The Al-Zour refinery's exports have stagnated and are expected to undergo maintenance in April. The Ruwai refinery's CDU unit has been damaged, reducing low-sulfur output and exports. Domestic refineries are concerned about raw materials, and the reduction or suspension of heavy oil production affects the production of bonded marine fuel [17]. - **Demand**: The number of ships arriving in Singapore in the near term has decreased. Although the bunkering demand at the Fujairah port has shifted, the high price of marine fuel in Asia has not supported the demand [17]. - **Spread**: The monthly increase in the cracking spread of Singapore's low-sulfur 0.5%S is about $39 to $45 per barrel, and the weekly decrease is $0.9 per barrel. The spot window basis has increased by about $139 to $139 per ton monthly and $21 per ton weekly [17]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply from Different Regions - **Russia**: In March, Russia's refinery processing and export volumes are expected to increase. From March 5th to 11th, the average crude oil processing rate was 5.32 million barrels per day, a month-on-month increase of 240,000 barrels per day, reaching the highest level since January. Some refineries and ports have gradually recovered. Due to concerns about the loss of Middle Eastern supply, regions such as pan-Singapore, China, and India are expected to increase their purchases of Russian fuel oil. As of March 16th, a total of about 1.95 million tons have been exported, with an average daily export of 120,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 18,000 tons (+17%) and a year-on-year increase of 27,000 tons (+28%). Exports to India have increased rapidly to 430,000 tons, and exports to the Singapore region have also increased slightly month-on-month [20]. - **Mexico**: Mexico's near-term exports have increased, but the total supply is limited. As of March 16th, a total of about 280,000 tons of high-sulfur fuel oil have been exported, with an average daily export of 174,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 28%. On March 6th, Mexico's high-sulfur exports surged, with about 210,000 tons exported that week, more than half of the monthly average export volume in recent months, mainly flowing to the United States and the Netherlands. The fire at the Olmeca refinery is still being evaluated [24]. - **Middle East**: Due to the intensification of the conflict between the US, Iran, and Israel, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, repeated attacks on the Fujairah port, and the reduction or complete shutdown of some refineries in the Middle East, exports from the Middle East have decreased. As of March 16th, a total of about 1.02 million tons have been exported, with an average daily export of 64,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61%. The Al-Zour refinery has slightly reduced production, and the export of low-sulfur fuel oil has stagnated. The Fujairah port in the UAE has been repeatedly attacked [25][27]. - **Nigeria**: After the secondary unit of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria returned from maintenance in mid-February, it has been operating stably, and the low-sulfur output and exports have decreased month-on-month. In March, there was no export of low-sulfur fuel oil, and exports to the pan-Singapore region decreased by 70,000 tons to 80,000 tons in February [30]. - **South Sudan**: The export of Dar crude oil in South Sudan has gradually recovered, and the export tender volume has increased month-on-month. In March, the total loading volume was 3 batches of 600,000 barrels, a total of 1.8 million barrels, returning to the normal loading level of last year [33]. Inventory and Market Conditions - **Inventory**: As of the week of March 11th, Singapore's fuel oil inventory has risen for four consecutive weeks, reaching 24.16 million barrels (about 3.8 million tons), a new high in four weeks. The import volume of fuel oil in onshore storage tanks has increased month-on-month by 47.5%, exceeding 1.3 million tons, mainly from the Middle East. The export volume has also increased, more than doubling compared to the previous week, exceeding 500,000 tons, with China being the largest export destination [36]. - **Market Conditions**: In the Singapore spot window, the price of high-sulfur fuel oil 380 has increased by about 68% monthly, and the price of low-sulfur fuel oil 0.5%S has increased by about 92% monthly. The high-sulfur cracking spread has increased from -$1 per barrel to about $15 per barrel, and the low-sulfur cracking spread has increased from $6 per barrel to about $45 per barrel [36].