Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. With the approaching peak season, if downstream demand recovers beyond expectations from late September to October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the supply side has policy support, but the demand and profit of steel restrict the upside space of raw materials. In the short - term, it will be in a volatile adjustment phase, and in the medium - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended with caution about the upside space. [8][10] - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels. Although the market sentiment has improved in the short - term, the rapid decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in. [11][13] - For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has short - term support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support, expected to oscillate at the bottom. [15][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: Last week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.35%, with daily hot metal output at 241.02 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.35%. Shanghai's rebar price was 3250 yuan (+10), and Shanghai's hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan (+10). [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector was volatile and slightly stronger on the night of the 19th. Iron water production increased slightly last week, and the production of the five major steel products was divided. The demand is in the off - season, and the recovery is average. After the parade, the steel demand conforms to the seasonality. It is expected that hot metal production will remain high this week, and steel demand may improve next week. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Steel will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend; Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the coil - rebar spread; Option: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01. [6] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.7%, with daily raw coal output at 190.0 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke (wet quenching) was 1613 yuan/ton. [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The sentiment in the coking coal spot market has improved, and there is an expectation of price increases for coke. Future coal production may be restricted by policies, but imported coal can make up for some supply. Steel demand restricts the upside space of raw materials. [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile adjustment, medium - term, buy on dips with caution about the upside; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see; Spot - futures: Wait and see. [10] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On September 22, a press conference on the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" will be held. Last week, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14381.68 million tons, and the daily port clearance volume was 351.03 million tons. [11] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices were strong last week. The global iron ore shipment increased in the third quarter, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand declined rapidly in the third quarter, and the price may face pressure at high levels. [11][13] - **Trading Strategy**: No trading strategy is provided in the given content. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Related Information**: The total manganese ore inventory decreased by 24.15 million tons. The supply of ferrosilicon was stable, and the supply of ferromanganese decreased slightly. [15] - **Logic Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support. [15][19] - **Trading Strategy**: Ferrosilicon: Unilateral: Hedge at high spot prices; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see. Ferromanganese: Unilateral: Oscillate at the bottom; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices. [17][20]

大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 研究员： 吴晓蓉 期货从业证号： F03108405 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021537 ： 021-65789108 ： wuxiaorong_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 2025/9/22 | 2025/9/19 | 2025/9/15 | 2025/8/25 | Δ日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU主力 | 2784 | 2796 | 2799 | 2907 | -12 | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 20.6 | 22.2 | 22.2 | 13.1 | -1.6 | | FU仓单(吨) | 127140 | 127140 | 101500 | 73710 | 0 | | LU主力 | 3382 | 3392 | 3375 | 3526 | -10 | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 0.1 | | LU仓单 | 10020 | 10020 | 10020 | 11110 | 0 | | FU1-5 | 41 | 42 | 47 | 41 ...

黑色金属日报 2025 年 09 月 22 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 螺纹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货(元/吨) | | | | | | | | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | RB05 | 3244 | 3232 | 12 | HC05-RB05 | 144 | 152 | -8 | | RB10 | 3095 | 3078 | 17 | HC10-RB10 | 325 | 347 | -22 | | RB01 | 3182 | 3172 | 13 | HC01-RB01 | 195 | 202 | -7 | | RB01-RB05 | -59 | -60 | 1 | RB10-RB01 | -90 | -94 | 4 | | RB05-RB10 | 149 | 154 | -5 | | | | | | 05合约螺纹盘面利润 | -78 | -104 | 26 | RB05/105 | 4.13 | 4.11 | 0.02 | | 10合约螺 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Asphalt Daily" dated September 22, 2025, and it provides an analysis of the asphalt market including relevant data, market situations, and market outlooks [1]. 1. Related Data Futures Prices and Positions - BU2511 (main contract) price dropped from 3421 to 3401, a decrease of 20 or -0.58% [2]. - BU2512 price decreased from 3374 to 3352, a drop of 22 or -0.65% [2]. - BU2601 price fell from 3353 to 3322, a decline of 31 or -0.92% [2]. - SC2510 price went down from 487.0 to 483.0, a decrease of 4.0 or -0.82% [2]. - Brent first - line price dropped from 66.76 to 66.46, a decrease of 0.3 or -0.45% [2]. - Main contract positions increased from 23.2 to 23.6 million lots, an increase of 0.4 or 1.83% [2]. - Main contract trading volume decreased from 18.0 to 16.7 million lots, a decrease of 1.2 or -6.92% [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 63680 to 59380 tons, a decrease of 4300 or -6.75% [2]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - BU12 - 01 spread increased from 21.00 to 30.00, an increase of 9.00 or 42.86% [2]. - BU11 - 12 spread increased from 47.00 to 49.00, an increase of 2.00 or 4.26% [2]. - Shandong - main contract basis increased from 276.00 to 288.00, an increase of 12.00 or 4.35% [2]. - East China - main contract basis increased from 126.00 to 148.00, an increase of 22.00 or 17.46% [2]. - South China - main contract basis increased from 116.00 to 138.00, an increase of 22.00 or 18.97% [2]. Industrial Chain Spot Prices - Shandong market price decreased from 3520 to 3510, a decrease of 10.00 or -0.28% [2]. - East China market price remained unchanged at 3500 [2]. - South China market price remained unchanged at 3490 [2]. - Shandong gasoline price decreased from 7483 to 7464, a decrease of 19.00 or -0.25% [2]. - Shandong diesel price increased from 6438 to 6453, an increase of 15.00 or 0.23% [2]. - Shandong petroleum coke price remained unchanged at 2860 [2]. - Diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at -6.5 [2]. - Exchange - rate mid - price decreased from 7.1128 to 7.1106, a decrease of 0.00 or -0.03% [2]. Spreads and Profits - Asphalt refinery profit increased from -26.81 to -16.44, an increase of 10.37 or 38.69% [2]. - Refined oil comprehensive profit increased from 350.43 to 367.40, an increase of 16.97 or 4.84% [2]. - BU - SC crack spread increased from -569.26 to -559.53, an increase of 9.73 or 1.71% [2]. - Gasoline spot - Brent spread increased from 949.74 to 950.03, an increase of 0.29 or 0.03% [2]. - Diesel spot - Brent spread increased from 714.97 to 745.34, an increase of 30.37 or 4.25% [2]. 2. Market Analysis Market Overview - On September 22, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3782 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. - In North China, the main refineries of 70 and 90 asphalt had limited shipments, and the market price was stable [5]. - In Shandong, the demand was average, and there were many low - price resources. The price of the main refineries' asphalt might be lowered [5]. - In South China, the overall refinery inventory was controllable, supporting price stability [5]. - In East China, the main refineries had stable shipments under preferential policies, but there were still many low - price resources in Zhenjiang, and the market trading was tepid [5]. - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3630 - 3750 yuan/ton. Rainfall inhibited demand, and with the resumption of production of some refineries, the supply was sufficient. The spot price dropped to about 3470 yuan/ton, and the price of the main refineries might be loosened [5]. - In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3650 - 3650 yuan/ton. The terminal demand was tepid, and the cost was average. The downstream users preferred low - price resources in Zhenjiang. In the short term, the asphalt price might show a weak trend [5]. - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3480 - 3530 yuan/ton. In Guangdong, high - speed projects were rushing to work, and some social warehouses increased shipments before the typhoon. In Guangxi, the project construction was stable, and the local refinery inventory was low. The typhoon weather had a slight impact on project construction and shipments, but the overall inventory pressure was not large, which was beneficial for price stability [6]. Market Outlook - Oil prices have fallen from high levels and are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, lacking effective support at the cost end [7]. - The weekly asphalt production has been increasing, and the industry chain is still destocking. The current demand level is basically the same as in previous years, and the peak - season expectation has been fulfilled [7]. - The refinery processing profit is acceptable, and the planned production of local refineries in October is expected to further increase. The continuous destocking of social inventory increases the supply, and the asphalt supply - demand tends to be loose, with relatively high valuation [7]. - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the crack spread is expected to be bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 and 3450 [7]. 3. Related Diagrams - The report includes diagrams such as the closing price of the BU main contract, the position of the BU main contract, the market price of asphalt in East China and Shandong, and the prices of Shandong local - refinery gasoline and diesel, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [10][12][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 22, 2025, ferroalloy futures prices rose and then fell. The silicon ferro - alloy (SF) main contract closed at 5648, down 1.53% with a decrease in positions, while the silicon manganese (SM) main contract closed at 5870, down 1.58% with an increase in positions [7]. - For SF, the spot price was stable with a slight increase on the 22nd. Supply was high with a slight decline in the sample enterprise's operating rate. Demand was supported by high iron - water production due to high steel billet exports. After the price decline, the valuation was not high and the cost was supportive, so short positions could be reduced or put options could be sold for protection [7]. - For SM, the manganese ore spot was stable on the 22nd, and the SM spot price was stable with a slight decline. Supply decreased but was still high compared to the same period in previous years. Demand was affected by the decline in rebar production. The manganese ore price was firm due to low port inventories. After the price decline, there was cost support, and short positions could also be reduced or put options could be sold for protection [7]. - The trading strategies were to reduce short positions or sell put options for single - side trading, to wait and see for arbitrage, and to sell put options for options trading [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Data**: The SF main contract had a closing price of 5648, a daily change of - 88, and a weekly change of - 52. The trading volume was 281,849 with a daily increase of 52,126, and the open interest was 211,764 with a daily decrease of 11,755. The SM main contract had a closing price of 5870, a daily change of - 94, and a weekly change of - 36. The trading volume was 335,892 with a daily increase of 169,079, and the open interest was 339,805 with a daily increase of 5304 [4]. - **Spot Data**: SF spot prices were stable with a slight increase in some regions, rising 30 - 250 yuan/ton. SM spot prices were stable with a slight decline in some regions, falling 20 yuan/ton [4][7]. - **Basis/Spread Data**: The basis and spreads of SF and SM showed different daily and weekly changes. The SF - SM spread was - 222, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of - 16 [4]. - **Raw Material Data**: Manganese ore prices in Tianjin were stable with small weekly changes. Lanthanum semi - coke prices in some regions increased [4]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: Reduce short positions or sell put options due to low valuation. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell put options [8]. - **Important Information**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a plan to set the average annual growth target of the steel industry's added value at about 4% from 2025 - 2026, and required over 80% of steel production capacity to complete ultra - low emission transformation by the end of 2025. In August 2025, China's steel billet exports reached 1.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 230%. From January to August, the cumulative steel billet exports were 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 292% [9]. Relevant Attachments - Multiple charts showed the trends of ferroalloy main contracts, spreads, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and profits [10][15][17][22].

聚酯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 5 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 5 第一章 产业综述与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 20 GALAXY FUTURES 4 | | | 品种 逻辑分析 交易策略 目录 | | 本周美联储降息25个基点，符合市场预期，就业下行、通胀上行的风险增加，宏观情绪偏弱；俄罗斯石油设施遭到袭击，欧美施压制 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 裁俄油贸易，中东地缘冲突持续，地缘局势持续升温，油价高位震荡。PX供需双降，现货浮动价、基差月差延续走弱。长短流程装置 | | | | 利润小幅压缩 。供应方面，福佳大化一套年产能70万吨PX装置本周按计划检修，预计检修至10月下旬；天津石化年产能39万吨PX装 | | | | 置计划下周重启，四季度上海石化和金陵石化两套年产能各70万吨的PX装置检修推迟到26年，目前PX开工 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The trading strategy for pure benzene is a sideways and weak trend for single - sided trading and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage. For benzene - ethylene, the single - sided trading is also expected to be sideways and weak, and the strategies for arbitrage and options are to wait and see. The price of pure benzene is expected to show a weak sideways movement, and benzene - ethylene may face inventory accumulation pressure and price decline in the future [5][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Pure Benzene - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, increasing the risk of employment decline and inflation rise, and the macro - sentiment is weak. Geopolitical tensions have led to high - level fluctuations in oil prices. The supply and demand of pure benzene have both increased, the price difference with naphtha and styrene has remained stable, and the spot price has slightly increased. The import arrival in East China has been lower than expected, and the port inventory has decreased. The inventory of Shandong refineries is low, and the price is firm, but the buying interest has declined in the second half of the week. The price difference between Shandong and East China has strengthened, and the regional arbitrage window remains closed [5][11]. - Some pure benzene maintenance devices have restarted, and some new devices have been put into production, increasing the overall supply. The start - up rate of hydrogenated benzene has increased, although the profit remains in a loss state with a small loss margin, and the overall supply is also expected to increase. The downstream profit of pure benzene continues to be in a loss state, the inventory of major downstream products has increased, and the downstream procurement is coming to an end [5][26][28]. Benzene - ethylene - The price of benzene - ethylene first rose and then fell this week. The unexpected shutdown of Zhejiang Petrochemical widened the price difference between East China and Shandong, and the north - south arbitrage window opened. The inventory in East China ports has increased, and the basis has slightly weakened. The inventory of ports and trading enterprises has increased month - on - month, while the inventory of production enterprises has decreased [7][35]. - Some benzene - ethylene devices have reduced their loads or shut down, and some have restarted, resulting in a slight decline in the weekly start - up rate. In the future, the start - up rate is expected to increase, and new devices are planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter, increasing the supply. The downstream 3S orders are insufficient, the market spot supply is abundant, and the enterprise inventory is generally high, so benzene - ethylene may face inventory accumulation pressure in the future [7][44]. 2. Core Logic Analysis No specific content in the document is marked as core logic analysis, so this part is skipped. 3. Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 Pure Benzene - **Industrial Chain Prices**: The prices of pure benzene in East China, styrene in East China, EPS, PS, and ABS are presented, showing the price trends over the years [52]. - **External Prices**: The prices of pure benzene CFR in China, FOB in South Korea, FOB in the United States, and FOB in Rotterdam are shown [55]. - **Variety Price Differences**: The price differences between pure benzene and naphtha (external market), styrene and pure benzene (external and internal markets) are presented [57]. - **Regional Price Differences**: The price differences between Shandong and East China, China and South Korea, and the United States and South Korea for pure benzene are shown [61]. - **Industrial Chain Profits**: The production profits of pure benzene, styrene ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, phenol, adipic acid, caprolactam, and aniline are presented [67][71]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene are shown [74]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory of pure benzene is presented [75]. - **Downstream Start - up**: The start - up rates of styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid, which are downstream of pure benzene, are shown [79]. 3.2 Benzene - ethylene - **Internal and External Prices**: The spot price of benzene - ethylene in East China, CFR in China, FOB in South Korea, FOB in the United States, and FOB in Rotterdam are presented [83]. - **External Price Differences**: The price differences between internal and external markets of benzene - ethylene, and between China and the United States, South Korea, and Rotterdam are shown [86]. - **Industrial Chain Profits**: The production profits of benzene - ethylene ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, POSM, EPS, PS, and ABS are presented [88]. - **Industrial Chain Start - up**: The start - up rates of benzene - ethylene, PS, ABS, EPS, and phenol are shown [90][91]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventories of benzene - ethylene in East China, South China, and overall are presented [93].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The propylene market is generally expected to be loose, with downstream product profits being poor overall. The trading strategy suggests a sideways consolidation for single - sided trading, and a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options trading [6][7] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - Propane's external market is strong. As the market turns to the peak season and the temperature drops in some areas, the rigid demand for combustion increases. The operating rate of domestic PDH plants may rise in the future, and the demand is expected to be strong, supporting the propane price. In terms of supply, several plants restarted this week, and more are expected to restart in late September. With fewer new maintenance plants in September, the propylene operating rate is expected to rise, increasing the market supply [6] Trading Strategy - Single - sided: Sideways consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [7] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis and Data Tracking This Week's Market Review - Propylene futures rose and then fell this week. As of Friday, the main 2601 contract closed at 6388 yuan/ton (-36%/-0.56%) in the day session. The mainstream price in the Shandong propylene market was 6580 - 6670 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton week - on - week. Propane was relatively strong, with the East China frozen cargo arrival price at 598 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton week - on - week. The Far East propylene CFR China was at 795 - 800 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton week - on - week [14] Propane Support and Market Trend - Propane's import arrival price decreased this week. However, the external market is strong. With the market turning to the peak season and the temperature drop in some areas, the rigid demand for combustion increases. The operating rate of domestic PDH plants may rise in the future, and the demand is expected to be strong, supporting the propane price [15] Propylene Operating Rate - As of Thursday, the overall operating rate of domestic propylene plants was 77.98%, up 1.86% week - on - week. Several plants restarted this week, and more are expected to restart in late September. With fewer new maintenance plants in September, the propylene operating rate is expected to rise [18] Propylene Imports - Propylene import sources mainly flow to Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, followed by Fujian and Shanghai. After April, due to Sino - US tariffs, some downstream PDH plants were unstable. Downstream plants purchased low - priced foreign goods. The propylene import volume increased significantly from May to July, and South Korea is the largest source of propylene imports, accounting for 67.67% [21] Propylene Production Profit - Not elaborated in detail in the text, but only presented in the form of charts Propylene Downstream Industry Operating Conditions - Most propylene downstream product prices fell this week. Products such as propylene oxide, n - butanol, and acrylic acid had relatively obvious price drops. Downstream product costs were under pressure, and the acceptance of propylene prices gradually decreased. Most downstream product profits were poor, remaining below the break - even line. Octanol products are currently profitable, and acrylic acid and butanol have periodic profitability, while most other products have long - term profits below the break - even line [40] Propylene - Related Spreads - Presented in the form of charts, no detailed text analysis provided

油脂周报：油脂仍处于磨底阶段，继续关注政策端变 化 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 内容摘要 近期核心事件&行情回顾： 研究员：张盼盼 期货从业证号：F03119783 投资咨询证号：Z0022908 目录 1. SPPOMA数据显示9月前15日马棕单产环比上月同期减少6.94%，出油率环比上月同期减少0.21%，产量环 比上月同期减少8.05%。 2.印度8月港口库存继续累库至97万吨，其中棕榈油从45累库到54万吨，葵油和豆油去库至21万吨左右。 3.本周受棕榈油产地部分地区洪水以及美国SRE等因素影响油脂上涨较多，后影响因素逐渐减弱油脂盘面快速 回落。整体上，预计9月马棕产量或有所下滑，出口表现或略有上涨，产地现货价持稳运行对棕榈油价格存在 支撑。豆油受美国生柴政策预期影响扰动仍存，中国对印度时常存在豆油出口，另外中美元首开启对话，继续 关注美豆能否进口等情况。国内菜油继续边际去库，对菜油价格形成支撑。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国际市场—产地部分洪水有所缓解，马棕上调10月出口税 GALAXY FUTURES 3 SPPOMA数据 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. Core Views - The oil market is expected to face increasing supply pressure in the medium to long term. In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain weak, with Brent crude oil expected to trade in the range of $65 - $67 per barrel [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to be in a state of weak oscillation. The supply - demand balance is becoming more relaxed, and the valuation is relatively high [4][5][6]. - The fuel oil market, both high - sulfur and low - sulfur, is expected to be weak. High - sulfur fuel oil is affected by high inventories, and low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and lack of demand drivers [6][8][9]. - The PX and PTA markets are expected to oscillate. Their prices are greatly influenced by oil prices and the macro - economic situation, but the supply - demand contradiction of PTA will be alleviated later [10][12][13]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to oscillate in the short term due to the balance between supply reduction and demand increase [13][15]. - The short - fiber market is expected to oscillate, and its processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with prices following raw material trends [14][15][17]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to oscillate. The market supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season, with processing fees expected to fluctuate at a low level [17][18][19]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets are expected to be weak. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand lacks support. Styrene may face inventory accumulation pressure [19][20][22]. - The propylene market is expected to be in a state of relaxation, with increasing supply and poor downstream product profits [24][25]. - The PVC market is expected to be weak in the medium term, facing new production capacity pressure and weak demand, but with short - term observation recommended [26][27]. - The caustic soda market is expected to improve in the medium term, with a recommendation to buy on dips [28][29]. - The plastic PP market is expected to be weak in the short term and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended in the medium term [30][31]. - The log market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with a recommendation to observe mainly, and aggressive investors can consider a small - scale long - position layout [32][33]. - The offset - printing paper market has a pattern of oversupply, and it is recommended to short - sell the 01 contract near the lower limit of the spot market price [33][34]. - The pulp market has a certain degree of support below, but the high port inventory and weak demand suppress the rebound space. It is recommended to try a small - scale long - position in the SP main 11 contract [34][35][37]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market: hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract and consider taking profits on short positions in the NR main 11 contract [37][38][39]. - The butadiene rubber market: hold short positions in the BR main 11 contract [40][41][42]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Crude Oil**: WTI2510 contract closed at $62.68, down $0.89 per barrel (-1.40%); Brent2511 contract closed at $66.68, down $0.76 per barrel (-1.13%); SC2511 contract closed at 491.2 yuan/barrel, down 5.1 yuan, and dropped 7.6 yuan to 483.6 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Asphalt**: BU2511 closed at 3421 points (+0.00%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3372 points (-0.06%) at night [4]. - **Fuel Oil**: FU01 contract closed at 2782 (-1.28%) at night; LU11 closed at 3370 (-1.03%) at night [6]. - **PX & PTA**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6594 (-1.35%) during the day and 6600 (+0.09%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4604 (-1.33%) during the day and 4602 (-0.04%) at night [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4257 (-0.26%) during the day and 4249 (-0.19%) at night [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6284 (-0.95%) during the day and 6288 (+0.06%) at night [14]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5762 (-0.93%) during the day and 5758 (-0.07%) at night [17]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5966 (-0.55%) during the day and 5954 (-0.2%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6992 (-1.16%) during the day and 6971 (-0.3%) at night [19]. - **Propylene**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6388 (-0.56%) during the day and 6393 (+0.08%) at night [24]. - **PVC**: The domestic PVC powder market price increased slightly, with mainstream markets rising by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [26]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong decreased, while the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda remained stable [28]. - **Plastic PP**: The price of LLDPE in some regions decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; the price of PP in some regions decreased or remained stable [30]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs remained stable, and the 11 - month contract oscillated downward, closing at 801.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.87% [31]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: The market price of high - white offset - printing paper in Shandong remained stable, and the OP2601 contract in the futures market rose 8 yuan/ton at night [33]. - **Pulp**: The futures market declined slightly, and the prices of various types of pulp in the spot market were stable or had slight fluctuations [34][35]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The RU main 01 contract rose 10 points (+0.06%); the NR main 11 contract rose 60 points (+0.49%); the BR main 11 contract rose 50 points (+0.44%) [37][38][40]. Related Information - **Crude Oil**: The central bank is expected to keep the LPR unchanged; some countries recognized the State of Palestine, causing an angry response from Israel; the number of US drilling rigs increased [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Rain in Shandong affected demand, and contracts were being executed; in the Yangtze River Delta, demand was average, and some low - price resources were released; in South China, typhoons affected demand, but some social inventories had no pressure [4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: China's fuel oil imports decreased in August, and some Russian refineries were affected by attacks [6][7][8]. - **PX & PTA**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and polyester decreased slightly, and some PX and PTA plants had maintenance plans [10][11][12]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in China increased slightly, and some plants had restart or maintenance plans [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The sales of polyester yarn were average, and the operating rates of downstream industries remained stable [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: The export prices of polyester bottle - chips decreased slightly, and the operating rate of bottle - chips decreased [17][18]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The operating rates of petroleum benzene and its downstream industries changed, and some pure benzene and styrene plants had maintenance or restart plans [19][20][21]. - **Propylene**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased, and some plants restarted or were under maintenance [24][25]. - **PVC**: There was new production capacity pressure, and exports were expected to weaken [26][27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The purchase price of a large alumina plant in Shandong decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine in some regions increased [28][29]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of major producers increased, and there was new production capacity expected [30][31]. - **Log**: China's coniferous log imports decreased in August, and the funds of construction sites changed [32]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: The production of double - sided offset paper increased, and the inventory of producers increased [33][34]. - **Pulp**: A special paper production line of a company was put into operation, and a pulp mill extended its maintenance time [37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Jilin Petrochemical trial - produced a new type of rubber [39][41]. Logical Analysis - **Crude Oil**: OPEC increased production in August and September, the peak demand season in the Middle East ended, and the supply pressure increased. In the short term, oil prices are expected to be weak [2]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are falling, production is increasing, and the supply - demand balance is becoming more relaxed, with a relatively high valuation [4][5][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Russian refineries are gradually recovering, high - sulfur exports in the Middle East are increasing, and demand is weakening [8][9]. - **PX & PTA**: The macro - economic situation is weak, and the supply and demand of PX and PTA have decreased. The supply - demand contradiction of PTA will be alleviated later [12][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply has decreased and demand has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The plant operating rate has increased, downstream demand is weak, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: The market supply is abundant, demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17][18][19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak; the supply of styrene may increase, and there is inventory accumulation pressure [20][21][22]. - **Propylene**: The propane market is in the peak season, the supply of propylene is increasing, and downstream product profits are poor [24][25]. - **PVC**: There is new production capacity pressure, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline [26][27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The pressure on the spot market in Shandong has been released, and the medium - term supply - demand situation is expected to improve [28][29]. - **Plastic PP**: The demand is in the peak season, but there is new production capacity expected, and the cost support is weak [30][31]. - **Log**: The supply and demand are both weak, with supply expected to contract later [32][33]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is weak, and cost support is limited [33][34]. - **Pulp**: The macro - economic situation has improved, but high inventory and weak demand suppress the rebound space [34][35][37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The inventory situation of different types of rubber is different, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of the BR contract has decreased, and short - positions are recommended to be held [40][41][42]. Trading Strategies - **Crude Oil**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are weak; options: observe [1][4]. - **Asphalt**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates weakly; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: observe; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 at high prices [6][10]. - **PX & PTA**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [10][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [17][18][19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [19][20][22]. - **Propylene**: Unilateral trading: oscillate and sort out; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [24][25][26]. - **PVC**: Unilateral trading: observe in the short term and short - sell on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [26][27][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: Unilateral trading: buy on dips; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [28][29][30]. - **Plastic PP**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly in the short term and short - sell on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [30][31]. - **Log**: Unilateral trading: observe mainly, and aggressive investors can consider a small - scale long - position layout; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [32][33]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Unilateral trading: short - sell the 01 contract near the lower limit of the spot market price; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [33][34]. - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading: try a small - scale long - position in the SP main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage; options: observe [34][35][37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract and take profits on short positions in the NR main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions in the BR main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [40][41][42].