棉系周报：采摘进入尾声 棉价震荡为主 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 第二部分 周度数据追踪 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 基 础 色 辅 助 色 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/8 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of raw coal is firm, the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest has declined, and the profit of coal - to - methanol is around 390 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol supply is continuously abundant with high and stable operating rates. The US dollar price has accelerated its decline, the import parity has widened, and the overseas operating rate has returned to a high level. The MTO device operating rate has rebounded, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Overall, due to high inventory pressure, methanol will continue its downward trend [4]. Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Raw Coal Situation**: As of November 5, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 71%, and in Yulin was 44%. Coal mines resumed production, and the daily coal output in both regions was around 4 million tons. The demand was strong, and the pit - mouth price rose continuously [4]. - **Supply Side**: The price of raw coal was firm, the auction price of northwest mainstream methanol enterprises fell, and the profit of coal - to - methanol was around 390 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol operating rate was high and stable, and the supply was continuously abundant [4]. - **Import Side**: The US dollar price accelerated its decline, the import parity widened. Iran's production was fully normal, the non - Iranian operating rate increased slightly, and the overseas operating rate returned to a high level. The China - Europe price difference narrowed, and the Southeast Asian re - export window closed. Iran had loaded 160,000 tons in November, and the bid - winning situation of Iran's concessionary bidding improved, with abundant non - Iranian supplies [4]. - **Demand Side**: The MTO device operating rate rebounded. Some MTO devices such as Xingxing, Nanjing Chengzhi, Jiangsu Sierbang, Tianjin Bohua, and Ningbo Fude were operating at different loads. The downstream demand was stable [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: The port inventory accumulation cycle ended, and the basis was strong; the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated slightly. The international device operating rate increased, and imports recovered. The port spot liquidity was sufficient, but the overall trading was light, and the spot basis was stable [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short at high levels without chasing the short position; for arbitrage, wait and see; for over - the - counter trading, sell call options [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of November 6, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 76.09%, a 0.31 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 1.06 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 68.13%, a 0.43 - percentage - point increase from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: From October 25 to October 31, 2025, the international methanol production was 1,030,859 tons, a decrease of 39,050 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 70.66%, a 2.68% decrease. There were changes in some devices such as the restart of Iran's Marjan, the resumption of the US Nat after a short - stop, the breakdown of Malaysia's Petronas' No. 1 and No. 3 devices, and the restart of a Libyan device after years of shutdown [5]. - **Supply - Import**: As of November 5, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 387,000 tons, including 345,800 tons of foreign vessels and 41,200 tons of domestic vessels [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 82.97%, a 0.79 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 90.6%, with slight adjustments in the load of some enterprises [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.79%, a 0.52% decrease from last week. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 69.61%, and the formaldehyde operating rate was 41.75%, an increase from last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 23,900 tons, a decrease of 8,500 tons from the previous statistical date, a 26.23% decrease [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The production enterprise inventory was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise order backlog was 221,100 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from the previous period, a 2.57% increase [5]. - **Inventory - Port**: As of November 5, 2025, the total port inventory was 1,517,100 tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 24,200 tons, and that in South China decreased by 13,600 tons [5]. - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was around 390 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi was 322 yuan/ton. The port - to - northern line price difference was 110 yuan/ton, and the port - to - northern Shandong price difference was - 80 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis was stable [5]. - **Spot Price**: The price in Taicang was 2,100 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan), and in the northern line was 1,990 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the egg market from aspects of spot, supply, cost, demand, etc. It points out that although egg demand has improved slightly and prices have rebounded, the overall situation of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and the price is still fluctuating at the bottom. The increase in egg prices in the short - term is mainly due to the acceleration of old hen culling and the promotion of "Double 11". The short - term bottom of egg prices is expected to rise, but the long - term price trend still depends on the balance between supply and demand [5][15][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas this week was 2.93 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.06 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from last Friday. The egg price is expected to rise in the short - term, and the bottom is expected to be lifted [5]. - The decline of old hen prices has slowed down. The supply of the old hen market is relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand is weak. The price of powder chickens is at a relatively low level, which has a certain supporting effect on the overall chicken price, but some high - price red chicken areas still have a slight decline risk [5]. 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - The national main producing areas' egg - laying hen culling volume in the week of November 06 was 19.81 million, a decrease of 3% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens in the week of November 06 was 493 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [12]. - In October, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, an increase of 5.5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly hatching volume of egg - laying chicks in sample enterprises in October was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease [12]. 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - As of November 06, the corn price was around 2236 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 3094 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was around 2493 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.74 yuan/jin for single - jin eggs [15]. - The egg price first fell and then rose this week, and the overall supply exceeded demand. The average egg price decreased week - on - week, so the breeding profit decreased. As of November 06, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.25 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous week [15]. 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - Affected by the "Double 11" promotion, the sales volume in the sales areas increased week - on - week. As of November 06, the sales volume of eggs in the national representative sales areas was 7300 tons, a 4% decrease compared with last week [18]. - The production - link inventory decreased week - on - week, and the circulation - link inventory increased week - on - week. As of November 06, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from last week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.06 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week [18]. - The vegetable price index and pork price both rebounded slightly this week [18]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - The trading logic is that although the culling volume of culled hens has increased and the previous supply pressure has been relieved, the current in - production egg - laying hen inventory is still at a high level, and the short - term capacity reduction speed is expected to be relatively slow. Considering that the current spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan/jin, and the December main contract has given a certain premium, the upward space is expected to be relatively limited [19]. - For trading, it is recommended to wait and see in terms of unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - Relevant data on egg - laying hen inventory, culling situation, chick replenishment, cold - storage eggs, egg - laying hen breeding, price differences, and basis are presented in graphical form, but no specific numerical analysis and conclusions are given in the text [22][26][27][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report offers a daily morning observation of the non - ferrous metals market, analyzing the market trends, important information, logical reasoning, and trading strategies of various non - ferrous metals such as precious metals, copper, alumina, etc. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.05% at $3977.17/ounce, London silver closed up 0.03% at $48.01/ounce. The US dollar index closed down 0.45% at 99.67, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.088%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar closed at 7.1188 [8]. - **Important Information**: Trump won't announce new tariffs during the Supreme Court's tariff case. The US House Speaker is less optimistic about resolving the government shutdown. The US included copper, silver, and potash in the 2025 critical minerals list. US private employment data shows a weak labor market. Fed officials have different views on December rate cuts [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple Fed officials are cautious about December rate cuts, pressuring precious metals. But risks like the government shutdown, tariff debates, and labor market risks support prices. So, precious metals are expected to continue adjusting [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use a band - trading approach for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [11]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2512 contract rose 0.33% to 85690 yuan/ton, and the LME copper closed down 0.43% at $10684/ton. LME and COMEX inventories increased [12]. - **Important Information**: The US included copper in the critical minerals list. The Fed's December rate - cut direction is unclear. Chinese copper inventories have been rising for 5 weeks. Tanzania reopened its border with Zambia [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The long - term US government shutdown causes liquidity concerns. Copper supply remains tight, but non - US supply pressure eases. High copper prices reduce demand, and domestic inventories increase [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; hold cross - market long positions and exit when the export window opens; wait and see for options [13][14]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2601 contract fell 6 yuan to 2774 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed various changes [17]. - **Important Information**: Australia sold 30,000 tons of alumina at $320/ton FOB. National alumina inventories increased. Some projects in Guinea and China are in progress [17][18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Alumina supply still exceeds demand. Although there are expectations of production cuts, actual cuts haven't happened, and imports and new projects put pressure on prices [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect narrow - range bottom - grinding for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The SHFE aluminum 2512 contract rose 280 yuan to 21630 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [23]. - **Important Information**: US companies' October lay - offs reached a 20 - year high. US ADP employment in October increased. Chinese aluminum ingot inventories decreased. A US aluminum smelter cut production [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: US economic data improved the market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut. The supply - demand of aluminum remains tight, with overseas supply concerns and domestic consumption growth [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect an upward - biased trend for single - side trading; consider going long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum for arbitrage; wait and see for options [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract remained flat at 20910 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions were stable [25][26]. - **Important Information**: Similar to electrolytic aluminum, including US lay - offs, ADP employment data, and TGA balance changes. The industry's theoretical profit increased [26][27]. - **Logic Analysis**: US economic data eased market concerns. Supply shortages and rising raw material costs support prices, and demand is improving [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect an upward - biased trend for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [27]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc fell 0.11% to $3051/ton, and the SHFE zinc 2512 rose 0.15% to 22630 yuan/ton. Shanghai zinc inventories decreased [29]. - **Important Information**: SMM seven - region zinc inventories decreased [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The mining end is tight, and processing fees are falling, leading to potential production cuts. The export window is open, but new production and export volume are uncertain [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; hold the strategy of buying SHFE zinc and selling LME zinc for arbitrage; wait and see for options [31]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead rose 0.84% to $2036.5/ton, and the SHFE lead 2512 fell 0.23% to 17405 yuan/ton. Spot prices fell, and downstream buying improved [33]. - **Important Information**: SMM five - region lead inventories increased [33]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some lead - storage enterprises cut production due to high prices and high dealer inventories. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is entering the off - season [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel rose to $15055/ton, and the inventory decreased to 253104 tons [36]. - **Important Information**: Indonesia restricted new smelting licenses and cracked down on illegal nickel mining [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: LME nickel inventories remain high, indicating loose supply - demand. Cost support may weaken in December, and nickel prices will fluctuate weakly [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a downward - biased trend for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle option for the 2512 contract [37][39]. Stainless Steel - **Important Information**: A South Korean stainless - steel factory suspended operations due to a gas leak. National stainless - steel inventories increased slightly [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Terminal demand is weak, and the supply of cold - rolled products is sufficient. Cost support is weak, and the price trend is downward [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [41]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: An industrial silicon project in Angola was completed [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: In November, demand for industrial silicon decreased, and some factories stopped production. Supply - demand is basically balanced, and prices will fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [42][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips for single - side trading; conduct a long - spread strategy for Si2512 and Si2601 contracts; sell out - of - the - money put options [44]. Polysilicon - **Important Information**: The National Energy Administration issued a guidance on coal - new energy integration [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: In November, polysilicon supply and demand both decreased, with supply decreasing more. Without new positive news, the price is weak in the short term [45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a full correction for single - side trading; conduct a reverse - spread strategy for far - month contracts; no option strategy [45]. Lithium Carbonate - **Important Information**: A mining right in Jiangxi was under public notice. Chile's lithium carbonate exports increased in October [46][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: This week's production increased, and inventory decreased. But lithium concentrate arrivals and potential production resumptions will pressure prices in the future [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [49]. Tin - **Market Review**: The SHFE tin 2512 rose 0.11% to 283100 yuan/ton, and LME tin inventories increased [50]. - **Important Information**: Fed officials have different views on rate cuts. Yunnan over - achieved its tin exploration target. A company's tin production decreased. An electronics company's export situation changed [50][52]. - **Logic Analysis**: Fed officials' rate - cut views differ. Tin mining supply is tight, and production recovery may be delayed. Demand recovers slowly [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect high - level fluctuations for single - side trading; wait and see for options [53].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures are expected to test new highs again, while the bond market for treasury bond futures may be volatile in the short term [17][21]. - Agricultural products show different trends, such as soybean meal with fading bullish factors and a falling price, and sugar with a weakening international market and a fluctuating - weak domestic market [24][27]. - In the black metal sector, steel prices are range - bound, coking coal and coke are in high - level oscillations, and iron ore should be treated with a bearish mindset [57][59][62]. - For non - ferrous metals, precious metals are in range consolidation, copper prices are restricted by consumption, and aluminum prices are relatively strong due to supply concerns [68][71][78]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are weakly volatile due to economic concerns, and asphalt prices are under pressure [16][30]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the market rose across the board, with major indexes and futures contracts gaining. The market sentiment was stimulated, and the stock index is expected to continue to rise. Trading strategies include not chasing high prices, conducting IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bullish spreads at low prices [19][20][21]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Thursday, most treasury bond futures contracts closed down. The central bank's net withdrawal of liquidity affected the market. In the short term, the bond market may be volatile, and trading strategies include waiting and conducting 30Y - 7Y term spread short - selling arbitrage [22][23]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports are expected to increase. The domestic market has a loss in crushing profit, and the far - month price may face pressure. Trading strategies include short - selling in the far - month and using a short - straddle option strategy [25][26][27]. Sugar - The international sugar market is in a downward trend with increased production in major regions. The domestic market is affected by international prices and increased supply, but is also supported by import policies. Trading strategies include range - bound operations, short - selling international sugar and going long on Zhengzhou sugar [30][31][32]. Oilseeds and Oils - The prices of CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil decreased. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia and China shows different trends. Short - term trading strategies include short - term long positions or waiting [33][34][35]. Corn/Corn Starch - The CBOT corn futures price fell. The domestic corn inventory and consumption data are mixed. The price is expected to be range - bound, and trading strategies include short - term long and short positions at appropriate times [37][38]. Live Pigs - The pig price is generally stable or slightly rising. The overall supply pressure still exists. Trading strategies include short - selling and using a short - straddle option strategy [39][40]. Peanuts - The peanut price is weak. The oil mill's purchase is suspended. The peanut is in a short - term bottom - oscillating phase. Trading strategies include short - term long positions and selling a PK601 - P - 7600 option [42][43][44]. Eggs - The egg price is rising. The inventory of laying hens is high, and the price increase space is limited. Trading strategies include closing short positions and waiting [46][48]. Apples - The apple inventory data shows a decrease compared to last year. The price is at a high level with large market divergence. It is recommended to wait and see [50][51]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities. The supply may increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The cotton price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term. Trading strategies include waiting [55][56]. Black Metals Steel - The supply of five major steel products decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The steel price is range - bound, affected by production, inventory, and demand. Trading strategies include holding long positions and long - shorting the coil - rebar spread [58][59]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal auction price increased, and the coke price rose for the third time. The supply may be restricted by safety supervision, and the short - term price is in high - level oscillations. Trading strategies include waiting and buying on dips in the medium term [60][61][62]. Iron Ore - The global iron ore supply is high, and the domestic demand is weak. The iron ore price is expected to be bearish. Trading strategies include short - selling [63][64]. Ferroalloys - The prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon are at a low - valuation level. The previous short positions can be reduced. Trading strategies include short - selling a virtual straddle option combination [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - The prices of gold and silver fluctuated. The US economic and political factors have mixed effects on precious metals. The price is expected to be range - bound. Trading strategies include range - bound operations [68][70][71]. Copper - The copper price is affected by the US government shutdown and supply - demand factors. The supply is tight, and the consumption is insufficient. Trading strategies include waiting and conducting cash - and - carry arbitrage [72][73]. Alumina - The alumina price is in a bottom - oscillating phase. The supply is expected to decrease, but the actual reduction has not occurred. Trading strategies include waiting [75][77][78]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The aluminum price is relatively strong due to overseas supply concerns and domestic consumption growth. Trading strategies include going long on dips and long - shorting the SHFE - LME spread [79][80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy is strongly oscillating with the aluminum price. It is supported by cost and supply - demand factors. Trading strategies include going long on dips [82][83]. Zinc - The zinc price is range - bound. The supply may decrease due to reduced processing fees and increased exports. Trading strategies include waiting [85][86]. Lead - The lead price may decline due to increased supply and decreased demand. Trading strategies include holding short positions [88][90][92]. Nickel - The nickel market has a loose supply - demand relationship, and the cost support may weaken. The price is in a weak oscillation. Trading strategies include short - selling a 2512 contract short - straddle combination [93][94][95]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market has weak supply - demand, and the production profit is difficult to achieve. Trading strategies include short - selling on rebounds [96]. Industrial Silicon - The demand for industrial silicon is weakening, and the supply may decrease due to power price increases. The price is range - bound. Trading strategies include buying on dips [98]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The crude oil price is weakly volatile due to concerns about the economic outlook [16]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is under pressure due to weak reality and expectations [30]. Fuel Oil - The supply pressure of high - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase [30]. PX & PTA - There are more maintenance operations, and the demand is acceptable [32]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply - demand relationship will become looser in the fourth quarter [33]. Short - Fiber - The demand support is limited, and the price follows the cost increase [33]. PR (Bottle Chip) - The demand is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season [34]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The price is oscillating in the short term [35]. Propylene - The supply pressure remains, and the price is falling [36]. Plastic PP - PE&PP production increases year - on - year and month - on - month [37]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is weak [37]. PVC - The price is mainly oscillating [38]. Soda Ash - The cost is pushed up by coal prices [39]. Glass - Although there are rumors of production line shutdowns, the demand is weak [40]. Methanol - There is short - term weak support from gas restrictions [41]. Urea - The price rebounds due to news stimulation [42]. Pulp - The pulp price is in a stalemate, and the futures market is strongly oscillating [42]. Logs - The spot price is weakly oscillating [43]. Offset Printing Paper - The market is under pressure, and price increases are not well - implemented [44]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The tire production increases month - on - month [45]. Butadiene Rubber - BD&BR production shows marginal reduction and month - on - month tire production increase [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin market is facing increasing supply - side pressure and a general decline in downstream开工率. PE and PP spot prices are weakening, with supply increasing and demand remaining sluggish, and inventory pressure is still relatively large [4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to hold short positions in the L main 01 contract and the PP main 01 contract, and to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Spot market**: Domestic PE market continued to be weak this week, with linear mainstream prices falling to 6780 - 7450 yuan/ton, high - pressure prices at 8750 - 9600 yuan/ton, and most low - pressure varieties falling. PP was also weak, with the average weekly price of East China拉丝 at about 6540 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of about 60 yuan, a decline of 0.9%. The foreign market also followed the downward trend [4]. - **Supply**: PE maintenance capacity was 6.318 million tons, with a loss of 100,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,100 tons. Next week, the planned maintenance loss will further drop to 80,800 tons, and new production capacity will continue to be released. PP开工负荷率 was 78.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.6 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points. The parking loss this week was 158,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,000 tons [4]. - **Demand**: PE downstream开工普遍 declined, with the开工 rates of agricultural film, packaging, monofilament, and pipes at 50%, 53%, 48%, and 34% respectively. PP downstream开工 showed a differentiated trend, with the开工 rates of plastic weaving and BOPP film slightly increasing, while those of injection molding and modification remained basically the same as last week [4][16]. - **Inventory**: PE petrochemical synthetic resin inventory was 690,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. PP two - oil synthetic resin inventory was 690,000 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.7%, but a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The de - stocking rhythm of the middle and upper reaches was slow, and some production enterprises had finished product overstocking [5]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendation - **Single - side trading**: Hold short positions in the L main 01 contract, and it is advisable to lower the stop - loss to the recent low of 6850 points; hold short positions in the PP main 01 contract, and it is advisable to lower the stop - loss to the previous low of 6530 points [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Take a wait - and - see approach [6]. - **Options**: Take a wait - and - see approach [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Not provided in the given content 3.3 PE Weekly Data Tracking - **Price**: The report presents data on PE futures and spot prices, non - standard price differences, cost - profit curves, US dollar prices, import profits, and downstream profits [20][23][26]. - **Inventory**: It includes data on total PE inventory, oil - based PE inventory, coal - based PE inventory, trader PE inventory, port PE inventory, and PE warehouse receipts [51]. - **New device commissioning**: Multiple new PE devices are scheduled to be commissioned in 2025, with a total planned commissioning capacity of 6.13 million tons [59]. - **Production and sales**: Data on PE monthly and weekly production,开工率, imports, and exports are provided [62][65][68][71]. - **Downstream situation**: Information on PE downstream开工率, orders, and raw material inventory is presented [74][79]. 3.4 PP Weekly Data Tracking - **Price**: The report provides data on PP futures and spot prices, non - standard price differences, cost - profit curves, import and export prices, and profits [84][87][93]. - **Inventory**: It includes data on total PP inventory, two - oil PP inventory, coal - chemical enterprise PP inventory, trader PP inventory, port PP inventory, and PP warehouse receipts [106]. - **New capacity situation**: Multiple new PP devices are scheduled to be commissioned in 2025, with a total planned commissioning capacity of 5.66 million tons [108]. - **Production and sales**: Data on PP monthly and weekly production,开工率, and imports and exports are provided [111][114][122]. - **Downstream situation**: Information on PP downstream product开工率, orders, and raw material inventory is presented [125][128].

L&PP 日报 【银河期货】塑料 PP 每日早盘观察（25-11-07） 塑料 L 及 PP：PE&PP 环、同比增产 【市场情况】 L 塑料相关：L2601 合约报收 6802 点，下跌-3 点或-0.04%。LLDPE 市场价格延 续跌势。华北大区线性部分跌 20-80 元/吨；华东大区线性部分跌 20-70 元/吨；华南 大区线性部分跌 20-50 元/吨。国内 LLDPE 市场主流价格在 6780-7450 元/吨。线性 期货延续弱势，市场交投气氛清淡，石化企业下调部分出厂价格，贸易商跟跌让利出 货，下游询盘积极性减弱，部分逢低小单补仓，实盘成交有限。 PP 聚丙烯相关：PP2601 合约报收 6459 点，下跌-12 点或-0.19%。国内 PP 市 场弱势难改，部分牌号价格下行 30-50 元/吨。持货商心态转弱，报盘持续松动。下 游工厂受"恐跌"情绪主导，备货意愿低迷，采购更偏好低价货源，进一步拖累市场 成交价格，上午整体成交氛围偏弱。华北拉丝主流价格在 6220-6450 元/吨，华东拉 丝主流价格在 6330-6550 元/吨，华南拉丝主流价格在 6390-6550 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by the long - term shutdown of the US government, and the short - term concern about liquidity has increased. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the demand is affected by high prices. The price is expected to be volatile [7]. - The alumina market is in a state of significant oversupply. There are expectations of production cuts, but the actual reduction has not yet occurred. The price is under pressure, and it is expected to be in a narrow - range bottom - grinding state [16]. - The aluminum market has a tight supply - demand pattern. The overseas supply is expected to decrease, and the domestic consumption is resilient. The price is expected to be strong after corrections [23]. - The casting aluminum alloy market is affected by cost support and tight supply - demand balance. The price is likely to rise and is expected to be strong [30]. - The zinc market has a tight ore end, and there are expectations of smelter production cuts. The supply surplus situation may be alleviated, but the upward space is limited [35]. - The lead market has a situation where supply may increase and demand is entering the off - season. The price may decline [42]. - The nickel market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the price is in a wide - range shock with a downward - moving center [49]. - The stainless steel market has weak terminal demand and sufficient supply. The price is expected to be weak [55]. - The tin market has a tight ore supply and slow demand recovery. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock [64]. - The industrial silicon market has a weakening demand in November. The supply is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be in the range of (8500, 9500). Buying at low prices is recommended [68]. - The polysilicon market has a situation where supply and demand both decrease in November, and the supply reduction is greater. The price is expected to be weak in the short term, and buying after a correction is recommended [78]. - The lithium carbonate market has a tightening supply - demand situation in November, and the price is at a high level. There are differences after December, and the upward space may be limited [85]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86320 yuan/ton, up 1.04%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced positions by 299 lots to 557,300 lots [1]. - Spot: The Shanghai spot reported a premium of 30 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Guangdong reported a discount of 15 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The North China market reported a discount of 150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The US government has been shut down for 36 days, causing a 700 - billion - dollar liquidity shortage in the market [2]. - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations [2]. - Anglo Asian Mining signed a contract to sell copper concentrates from its new Demirli copper mine [2]. - Codelco lowered its annual copper production forecast for the second time in three months [3]. - As of November 6, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory increased by 3,200 tons to 203,300 tons [4]. Logic Analysis - Macro: The long - term shutdown of the US government increases short - term liquidity concerns [7]. - Supply: Multiple mining companies lowered production plans in Q3, and the supply of copper mines is tight. The non - US supply shortage is alleviated [7]. - Demand: High copper prices reduce the operating rates of copper rod and cable enterprises, and the procurement sentiment improves after price drops [7]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Wait and see [8]. - Arbitrage: Continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage and leave the market temporarily after the export window opens [13]. - Options: Wait and see [8]. 3.2 Alumina Market Review - Futures: The alumina 2601 contract rose 24 yuan to 2787 yuan/ton [10]. - Spot: The northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was flat at 2840 yuan, and the national weighted index dropped 2.6 yuan. The prices in different regions had varying changes [10]. Relevant Information - On November 6, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Australia at a FOB price of 320 US dollars/ton [11]. - As of November 6, the national alumina inventory was 4.218 million tons, up 88,000 tons from last week [11]. - Guinea's NMC started barge shipments of bauxite, and ELITE MINING resumed shipments after the rainy season [12]. - A project in Guangxi started the inquiry and selection for the red mud pipeline survey [15]. - Guangxi Long'an Hetai New Materials' 1 - million - ton alumina project is expected to be completed and trial - produced by the end of the year [15]. Logic Analysis - The supply - demand of alumina is in significant surplus. There are expectations of production cuts, but the actual reduction has not occurred. The import window is open, and new projects are progressing smoothly, putting pressure on prices [16]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Narrow - range bottom - grinding [17]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see temporarily [18]. - Options: Wait and see temporarily [18]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose 280 yuan to 21,630 yuan/ton [20]. - Spot: The prices in East China, South China, and Central China all increased [20]. Relevant Information - The US Treasury's general account balance exceeded 1 trillion US dollars, sucking more than 700 billion US dollars from the market [20]. - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations [20]. - As of November 6, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 7,000 tons [21]. - Century Aluminum's Icelandic smelter reduced production due to equipment failure [22]. Trading Logic - Macro: US economic data is better than expected, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has improved [23]. - Fundamental: The supply - demand of aluminum is tight. Overseas supply is expected to decrease, and domestic consumption is resilient [23]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Maintain a strong - trending shock [28]. - Arbitrage: Choose the opportunity to go long on SHFE aluminum and short on LME aluminum [28]. - Options: Wait and see temporarily [28]. 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The casting aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 245 to 21,000 yuan/ton [26]. - Spot: The prices in different regions were flat [26]. Relevant Information - The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a three - point consensus, and the US will cancel the "fentanyl tariff" [26]. - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations [26]. - The US government shutdown has a liquidity impact on the market [27]. - The weighted average full cost of the Chinese casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry in October was 20,498 yuan/ton, and the profit per ton increased [29]. Trading Logic - Macro: US economic data alleviates market concerns [30]. - Fundamental: The cost of raw materials rises, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. The price is likely to rise [30]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: The aluminum alloy price is mainly strong following the aluminum price [31]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see temporarily [31]. - Options: Wait and see temporarily [31]. 3.5 Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.29% to 22,675 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index increased positions by 2,453 lots to 225,600 lots [33]. - Spot: The Shanghai zinc inventory decreased, and the spot premium continued to hold up, but downstream procurement was cautious [33]. Relevant Information - As of November 6, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased [34]. Logic Analysis - The ore end is tight, and there are expectations of smelter production cuts. The supply surplus may be alleviated, but the upward space is limited [35]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Wait and see temporarily [38]. - Arbitrage: Hold the SHFE long - LME short arbitrage [38]. - Options: Wait and see temporarily [38]. 3.6 Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai lead 2512 fell 0.4% to 17,430 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 2,494 lots to 122,400 lots [40]. - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead decreased, and the downstream buying willingness improved slightly [40]. Relevant Information - As of November 6, the SMM five - region lead ingot inventory increased [41]. Logic Analysis - Supply may increase, and demand is entering the off - season. The price may decline [42]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Hold profitable short positions. Be vigilant about the impact of funds on the price [43]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see temporarily [43]. - Options: Wait and see temporarily [43]. 3.7 Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 fell 80 to 119,750 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 7,869 lots [45]. - Spot: The premiums of different types of nickel had different changes [47]. Important Information - MMG's acquisition of Anglo American's Brazilian nickel business is under EU investigation [48]. - The global nickel price has dropped significantly in the past two years due to oversupply [48]. Logic Analysis - The LME nickel inventory is high, and the supply - demand is loose. The price is in a wide - range shock with a downward - moving center [49]. Trading Strategy - Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [50]. 3.8 Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 rose 35 to 12,590 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 10,369 lots [52]. - Spot: The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [52]. Important Information - The US steel market demand is strong, and the EU recycling industry opposes possible steel tariffs [53]. - India temporarily relaxes import restrictions on non - compliant stainless steel products [55]. Logic Analysis - Terminal demand is weak, and supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be weak [55]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Weak - trending shock [53]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see temporarily [53]. 3.9 Tin Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,420 yuan/ton, up 1390 yuan/ton or 0.49%, and the position decreased by 1,849 lots to 66,355 lots [59]. - Spot: The average price of Shanghai metal network tin ingots increased, but the overall consumption was weak [59]. Relevant Information - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations [60]. - The US government has been shut down for 36 days [61]. - Yunnan has achieved over - target exploration of strategic minerals [61]. - Xingye Yinxi's production of tin in the first three quarters of 2025 decreased [61]. Logic Analysis - US employment data alleviates market pessimism. The ore supply is tight, and demand recovery is slow. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock [64]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is in a high - level shock [65]. - Options: Wait and see temporarily [66]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon Important Information - In Yunnan, the number of operating industrial silicon furnaces decreased in October, and it is expected to be less than 20 in November [68]. Logic Analysis - In November, the demand for industrial silicon weakens. The supply is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be in the range of (8500, 9500). Buying at low prices is recommended [68]. Strategy Suggestion - Single - side: Buy at low prices [69]. - Arbitrage: None [70]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [71]. 3.11 Polysilicon Important Information - Hubei launches a bidding for the sustainable development price settlement mechanism of new energy projects in 2025 [73]. Logic Analysis - In November, supply and demand both decrease, and the supply reduction is greater. The price is expected to be weak in the short term, and buying after a correction is recommended [78]. Strategy Suggestion - Single - side: Buy after a correction [79]. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage of far - month contracts [80]. - Options: None [81]. 3.12 Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 1540 to 80,500 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 25,948 lots. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 410 to 26,420 tons [83]. - Spot: The SMM prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased [83]. Important Information - In October, the new - energy vehicle retail and wholesale in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month [84]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to increase significantly in 2026, while the supply growth is limited [84]. - Samsung SDI will supply Tesla with energy - storage batteries [84]. - Salt Lake Co., Ltd.'s lithium salt project is in trial operation [84]. - Chile's lithium carbonate exports in October increased [84]. Logic Analysis - In November, the supply - demand of lithium carbonate tightens, and the price is at a high level. There are differences after December, and the upward space may be limited [85]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Pay attention to whether the support of the lower moving average is effective [86]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see temporarily [88]. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle option combination [88].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: White Sugar Daily Report [2] - Report Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,390, down 3 (-0.06%), volume 4,309 (increase of 1,685), open interest 11,206 (increase of 1,462) [5] - SR01: Closing price 5,448, up 7 (0.13%), volume 155,276 (decrease of 29,200), open interest 372,447 (increase of 4,955) [5] - SR05: Closing price 5,388, down 5 (-0.09%), volume 24,379 (decrease of 6,357), open interest 113,419 (increase of 5,455) [5] Spot Market - Spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5,720, Kunming 5,905, Wuhan 6,000, Nanning 0, Bayuquan 6,015, Rizhao 5,820, Xi'an 6,130, all unchanged from the previous day [5] - Basis: Liuzhou 272, Kunming 457, Wuhan 552, Nanning -5448, Bayuquan 567, Rizhao 372, Xi'an 682 [5] Monthly Spread - SR5 - SR01: Spread -60, down 12; SR09 - SR5: Spread 2, up 2; SR09 - SR01: Spread -58, down 10 [5] Import Profit - Brazil: ICE主力 14.12, premium (0.46), freight 42.25, quota - in price 3,893, out - of - quota price 4,941, spread with Liuzhou 779, spread with Rizhao 879, spread with futures 507 [5] - Thailand: ICE主力 14.12, premium 0.89, freight 18.00, quota - in price 3,958, out - of - quota price 5,026, spread with Liuzhou 694, spread with Rizhao 794, spread with futures 422 [5] Group 3: Market Outlook Important Information - In India, protests in Kolhapur, Maharashtra, over sugarcane prices have escalated, disrupting sugarcane harvesting and transportation, and many sugar mills have not started operations [7] - Some sugar groups in China have completed inventory clearance for the 24/25 and 23/24 seasons, and Guangxi is expected to start the 25/26 sugar - making season next week [7] - Processed sugar prices are stable with average trading volume [8] Logical Analysis - Internationally, major sugar - producing regions are increasing production. Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a historically high level, and India may export nearly 2 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season. The fundamental situation of raw sugar is weak, and the long - term trend is downward [9] - Domestically, short - term sugar production is expected to increase, and international sugar prices have fallen significantly. However, due to tightened imports of syrup and premixed powder and relatively high previous pricing costs, there is some support for domestic sugar prices. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and in the long term, prices are expected to be weak but with limited downward space [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices have resumed their downward trend. Domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate, so it is recommended to operate within the range (sell high, buy low) [11] - Arbitrage: Short foreign sugar and long Zhengzhou sugar [11] - Options: Observe [11] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, Guangxi and Yunnan sales - to - production ratios, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price difference, white sugar basis for different months, and Zhengzhou sugar spreads for different contract months [13][14][18]

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 11 月 6 日 油脂日报 国内市场（P/Y/OI）：油脂短期有所企稳迎来技术性反弹，YP 价差大幅走扩使得棕榈 油性价比逐渐显现，今日棕榈油期价震荡收涨，涨超 1%。截至 2025 年 10 月 31 日（第 44 周），全国重点地区棕榈油商业库存 59.28 万吨，环比上周减少 1.43 万吨，减幅 2.36%；近 期棕榈油小幅去库，处于历史同期中性水平。产地报价偏稳运行，进口利润倒挂有所收窄， 目前约在-300 附近，传今日存在 3 船近月买船。基差偏稳运行，关注后期国内买船及到港情 况。油脂经历大幅下跌后，目前有所企稳并迎来技术性反弹，不过短期棕榈油仍缺乏明显驱 动，预计上涨幅度较为有限，可考虑逢低短多，或继续观望。后期关注印尼 B50 政策进展以 及 10 月马棕产量情况。 今日豆油期价震荡小幅收涨。上周油厂大豆实际压榨量 225.34 万吨，开机率为 61.99%， 研究员：张盼盼 期货从业证号： F03119783 投资咨询证号： 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/6 | | | ...