1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors remain the focus of the oil and fat market. In March, Malaysian palm oil may continue to reduce inventory, but the inventory may remain at a relatively high level due to the high base. Domestic palm oil has a phased inventory accumulation pressure after the delayed arrival of shipments, but India's large - scale imports of palm oil and the increase in biodiesel blending profit are beneficial to palm oil demand. Domestic soybean oil is continuously reducing inventory slightly, and the overall supply is sufficient. It is still supported by the positive expectation of the US biodiesel policy. In the short term, before a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives, rapeseed oil maintains a slightly low - level inventory, and the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical war promotes the rapeseed oil price, and rapeseed oil may fluctuate at a high level [4][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market - Malaysia - High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil from March 1st to 15th decreased by 5.28%, a significant decline compared with the 1.55% increase in the first 10 days. The rainfall forecast indicates that the production area will be relatively dry in the next week, and the production in March is expected to recover poorly but still increase slightly to around 1.45 million tons. The current spot price of Malaysian CPO has risen to around 4,500, slightly lower than the same period last year. In terms of exports, ITS data shows that the export of Malaysian palm oil from March 1st to 15th increased by 44% month - on - month, with the growth rate expanding compared with the 38% increase in the first 10 days. It is expected that the inventory in March will be reduced to between 2.5 and 2.6 million tons, still at a high level in the same period of history [10]. 3.2 International Market - Indonesia - Starting from March 20th, Indonesia will enter the Eid al - Fitr holiday, lasting about 7 - 10 days. It is expected that the CPO reference price in Indonesia will be raised to around $995 in April, and the taxes and fees will also be raised by one level to $148, which will further increase the cost of palm oil. Affected by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the prices of crude oil and diesel have risen significantly, and the POGO spread has dropped significantly, resulting in a significant recovery of the blending profit of palm - based biodiesel, which will increase the demand for palm biodiesel. According to the HIP spread between Indonesian biodiesel and diesel, it is expected that Indonesian biodiesel will not need subsidies in April. Driven by profit, it will be beneficial to the increase in biodiesel production in March and April. As of February 12th, the cumulative biodiesel supply in Indonesia from January to February was about 1.27 million kiloliters, with a completion rate of about 85% in January, and the implementation of biodiesel is good [13]. 3.3 Domestic Palm Oil - As of March 13, 2026 (Week 11), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 842,000 tons, an increase of 29,900 tons or 3.68% compared with last week. The palm oil inventory has been continuously increasing and is at a relatively high - level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation is stable, the import profit of the futures market is inverted by about 100, and the basis is running weakly and stably. According to incomplete statistics, there were 6 ship purchases this week. On the demand side, the spot market trading is light, and downstream buyers have a low acceptance of high prices, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand. In the short term, affected by the sharp rise in crude oil, the overall oil and fat market has risen driven by the increase in biodiesel demand. Considering that geopolitical factors may be volatile, it is expected that palm oil will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [16]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean Oil - As of March 13, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 890,900 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons or 1.66% compared with last week. The soybean oil inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The spot basis of soybean oil varies in different regions, with the basis in the north being stable and slightly strong, and that in East and South China being stable. The spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has oscillated and dropped to around - 980, the spot trading volume of soybean oil has increased slightly, and the market trading sentiment has warmed up. The oil mill's crushing and operation rate is gradually rising, and the supply of soybean oil is increasing. It is understood that there is a small amount of domestic soybean oil exports this week, and overall, the soybean oil inventory will continue to remain at a relatively high level. Fundamentally, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, but it is supported by the positive expectation of the US biodiesel policy, and driven by geopolitical factors, soybean oil follows the overall oil and fat market to fluctuate at a high level [19]. 3.5 Domestic Rapeseed Oil - As of March 13, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 151,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons compared with last week. As of March 13, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 282,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons, at a relatively neutral and slightly low level in the same period of history. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil is stable at around $1,150, and the import profit of European rapeseed oil has an inverted spread that has expanded to around - 1,500. After the Spring Festival, the oil mills have increased their operation, and the supply of rapeseed oil has increased. However, the downstream consumption is in the seasonal off - season, the market demand is weak overall, and the transactions are mainly for a small number of long - term basis contracts. The basis of rapeseed oil is stable. In the short term, rapeseed oil maintains a slightly low - level inventory. Before a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives and with the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical war and the interruption of Dubai rapeseed transportation, the rapeseed oil price is promoted to a certain extent, and rapeseed oil may be prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the Middle - East war weakens later and a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives in April, the supply pressure of long - term rapeseed oil will increase, and the upward pressure on rapeseed oil prices will also be prominent [22]. 3.6 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: In the short term, geopolitical disturbances continue, and oil and fat may fluctuate at a high level. - Arbitrage strategy: Consider the opportunity of reverse arbitrage for P5 - 9 and Y5 - 9 when the price is high. - Option strategy: Wait and see. (The views are for reference only and not as a basis for trading) [26]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: March 20, 2026 [2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The CSI 1000 index closed at 7,783.43, down 1.59%. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 290,587 lots, an increase of 8,391 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 386,516 lots, a decrease of 8,321 lots from the previous day. The main contract (IM2606) closed at 7,560, down 1.26% [4][5]. - The main contract was at a discount of 223.43 points to the spot index, an increase of 4.8 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -11.36% [5]. 2.2 Basis and Spread - The basis and spread data of the four IM contracts showed different trends, with the annualized roll - over costs and dividend impacts varying across contracts [9][12]. 2.3 Major Seats - The trading volume, long positions, and short positions of major seats in different contracts (IM2604, IM2606, IM2609) changed compared with the previous day, with some seats increasing and some decreasing their positions [16][18][20]. 3. IF Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The CSI 300 index closed at 4,567.02, down 0.35%. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 140,529 lots, a decrease of 12,841 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 261,102 lots, a decrease of 21,044 lots from the previous day. The main contract (IF2606) closed at 4,486.4, down 0.28% [21][22]. - The main contract was at a discount of 80.62 points to the spot index, an increase of 0.43 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -6.9% [22]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - Similar to IM futures, the basis and spread of IF contracts also showed different characteristics, with the annualized roll - over costs and dividend impacts varying by contract [27][30][32]. 3.3 Major Seats - The positions of major seats in IF contracts (IF2604, IF2606, IF2609) changed, with some seats adjusting their long and short positions [36][38][39]. 4. IC Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The CSI 500 index closed at 7,760.04, down 1.49%. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 200,135 lots, a decrease of 8,295 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 286,787 lots, a decrease of 19,285 lots from the previous day. The main contract (IC2606) closed at 7,559.4, down 1.16% [41][42]. - The main contract was at a discount of 200.64 points to the spot index, an increase of 5.45 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -10.2% [42]. 4.2 Basis and Spread - The basis and spread of IC contracts had their own characteristics, with different annualized roll - over costs and dividend impacts for each contract [46][48][51]. 4.3 Major Seats - The trading volume and positions of major seats in IC contracts (IC2604, IC2606, IC2609) changed compared with the previous day [56][57][59]. 5. IH Futures 5.1 Daily Quotes - The SSE 50 index closed at 2,883.86, down 1.11%. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 68,764 lots, a decrease of 117 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 99,575 lots, a decrease of 10,992 lots from the previous day. The main contract (IH2606) closed at 2,865.8, down 0.95% [61][62]. - The main contract was at a discount of 18.06 points to the spot index, an increase of 4.37 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -2.42% [62]. 5.2 Basis and Spread - The basis and spread of IH contracts showed different trends, with the annualized roll - over costs and dividend impacts varying across contracts [66][67][68]. 5.3 Major Seats - The positions of major seats in IH contracts (IH2604, IH2606, IH2609) changed, and different seats had different adjustments in their long and short positions [72][74][76].

Report Title - Peanut Spot Strong, Peanut Futures at High Level in Range-bound Trading [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The trading volume of peanuts has increased. The price of Henan general peanuts is strong, the price of Shandong peanuts is stable, and the price of Northeast peanuts is weak. The price of imported peanuts is stable, and the import volume is still low. The operating rate of oil mills has increased, the purchase price is stable, the peanut meal spot is stable, and the peanut oil price is strong, leading to an expansion of the oil mills' profit margins. The downstream consumption is still weak, the peanut inventory of oil mills has increased, and the peanut oil inventory has continued to rise. The 05 peanut contract has been in a strong range-bound trading this week, and the 5 - 10 spread has increased [6]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Option Strategy**: Sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option strategy [5] - **Trading Logic**: The trading volume of peanuts has increased. The price of Henan general peanuts is strong at around 3.6 yuan per jin, the price of Shandong peanuts is stable, and the price of Northeast peanuts is weak with Huayu 23 peanuts at around 4.35 yuan per jin. The price of imported peanuts is stable, with imported Sudan refined rice at 8,600 yuan per ton and imported Senegalese commodity rice at 7,700 yuan per ton. The operating rate of oil mills has increased, the purchase price is stable, the peanut meal spot is stable, and the peanut oil price is strong, leading to an expansion of the oil mills' profit margins. The downstream consumption is still weak, the peanut inventory of oil mills has increased, and the peanut oil inventory has continued to rise. The market is trading on the rise in crude oil, and with the strong prices of peanut meal and peanut oil, the oil mills' profit margins have increased, leading to an increase in purchase volume. The Northeast peanut spot is strong, and the price difference between Northeast and Henan peanuts remains at a high level. There is an abundant supply of oil - grade peanuts in Henan and other places, and the price of Senegalese peanuts is low, but the current cost of warehouse receipts is around 8,000 yuan per ton. This week, the 05 peanut contract has been in a strong range - bound trading, and the 5 - 10 spread has increased [6] - **Strategy**: Go long on the 05 peanut contract with a light position on dips [6] - **Spread Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Peanut Price - **Domestic Peanuts**: The price of Henan peanuts is stable, and the price of Northeast peanuts is weak. The price of large peanuts in Junan, Shandong is 3.4 yuan per jin, stable compared to last week; the price of new - season peanuts in Zhengyang, Henan is 3.55 yuan per jin, stable compared to last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Changtu, Liaoning is 4.55 yuan per jin, down 0.05 yuan per jin compared to last week; the price of Huayu 23 peanuts in Xingcheng, Liaoning is 4.35 yuan per jin, stable compared to last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin is 4.55 yuan per jin, down 0.05 yuan per jin compared to last week. The trading volume of general peanuts is average, and the price of Henan peanuts is relatively stable [11] - **Oil Mill Oil - Grade Peanuts**: The purchase price of oil mills is stable, with the basic purchase price ranging from 7,200 to 7,600 yuan per ton, stable compared to last week [11] - **Imported Peanuts**: The price of Sudan refined rice is 8,600 yuan per ton, the price of Senegalese oil - grade peanuts is 7,200 yuan per ton, and the price of commodity rice is 7,700 yuan per ton, stable compared to last week [11] Domestic Demand - **Oil Mill Operating Rate**: The operating rate of oil mills has increased. As of March 19, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 16.78%, a week - on - week increase of 3.18% [15] - **Oil Mill Inventory**: The arrival volume of oil mills this week is 43,500 tons, an increase of 23,100 tons compared to last week. The peanut inventory of oil mills is 217,900 tons, an increase of 18,800 tons compared to last week. The peanut oil inventory is 41,700 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared to last week [15] Pressing Profit - **Pressing Profit**: The purchase price of peanut oil mills is stable, the price of peanut meal has increased, and the price of peanut oil is stable, resulting in an oil mill pressing profit of 213 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 28 yuan per ton [19] - **Peanut Oil Price**: The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,300 yuan per ton, stable compared to last week, and the price of small - pressed concentrated fragrant oil is 16,300 yuan per ton, stronger compared to last week [19] - **Peanut Meal**: Due to the weak spot price of soybean meal, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and the price of peanut meal is stable at 3,200 yuan per ton this week, stable compared to last week [19] Basis and Spread - **Spread**: This week, due to the range - bound increase of the 05 peanut contract, the 5 - 10 peanut spread is strong and stable at around - 170 yuan [26] - **Spot - Futures Price Difference**: The basis is stable [26] Peanut Import - **Peanut Kernel Import**: In February, the import volume of peanut kernels is 21,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to February is 35,000 tons, a 23% increase compared to the same period last year [30] - **Peanut Kernel Export**: In February, the export volume of peanut kernels is 22,000 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to February is 70,000 tons, a 159% increase compared to the same period last year [30] - **Peanut Oil Import**: In February, the import volume of peanut oil is 21,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume of peanut oil from January to February is 62,000 tons, a 12% increase compared to the same period last year [30] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides various data charts, including the price of Shandong general peanut kernels, the purchase price of oil mills, the basis between Shandong spot and continuous contracts, the operating rate of peanut oil mills, the peanut kernel inventory and pressing volume of peanut oil mills, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal, the price of Shandong peanut oil, the basis between Shandong peanuts and continuous contracts, the 4 - 10 spread trend of peanuts, the 1 - 4 spread trend of peanuts, the 10 - 1 spread trend of peanuts, the cumulative import volume of Chinese peanuts, the cumulative export volume of Chinese peanut kernels, the import price of peanut oil, the monthly cumulative import volume of Chinese peanut oil, the price difference between soybean meal and peanut meal per unit of protein, the price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil spot, the price difference between peanut oil and sunflower oil, and the price difference between peanut oil and rapeseed oil [10][14][18][22][40][42][58][62][66]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, which has led to increased uncertainty and volatility in various sectors [20][21][116] - Different industries are facing different challenges and opportunities. For example, the energy sector is experiencing price fluctuations due to supply disruptions, while the agricultural sector is influenced by factors such as production and demand [26][30][116] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - selling momentum was released. On Thursday, the stock index tumbled, affected by factors such as the Fed's decision and the escalation of the Middle East conflict. The short - term stock index will still fluctuate due to news and wait for the situation to become clearer. Trading strategies include grid operations for unilateral trading, IM\IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [20][21][22] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The foreign market risk appetite slightly stabilized. On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, but the bond market still lacks substantial positive drivers, and the upward space is limited. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [23][24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure increased, and the market fluctuated widely. The US soybean and soybean meal prices are affected by both fundamentals and the macro - environment. It is recommended to slightly layout long positions, but the space is limited [26][27][28] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices soared, and domestic sugar prices followed. International sugar production is expected to be lower than previously anticipated, supporting international sugar prices. Domestic sugar prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term. The recommended strategy includes going long unilaterally, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling put options [29][30][31] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oils may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the supply and demand of oils are in a state of uncertainty. It is recommended to wait and see for trading strategies [32][33][34] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The increase in millet auctions led to high - level fluctuations in the market. The US corn price is strong, and the domestic corn market is affected by factors such as demand and supply. The recommended strategies include a bullish view on the 05 corn contract on dips and widening the spread between 05 corn and starch [35][36][37] - **Hogs**: The pressure of hog slaughter increased, and hog prices continued to decline. Due to factors such as high inventory and relatively strong feed prices, hog prices are under pressure. It is recommended to close previous short positions [38][39] - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices were strong, and the futures market fluctuated strongly. Peanut spot prices are stable, and the futures market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and the price of related products. It is recommended to go short - term long on the 05 peanut contract on dips [40][41][42] - **Apples**: The inventory reduction speed of apples was acceptable, and the price of high - quality goods was firm. The fundamentals of apples are strong, but the upward momentum of the May contract is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [44][45][46] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw materials provided support, and steel prices maintained a fluctuating trend. The production of five major steel products increased, and the inventory decreased. Affected by overseas and raw material factors, steel prices will fluctuate in the short - term [49][50] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market fluctuated greatly, and attention should be paid to the progress of geopolitical conflicts. The price of coking coal is affected by both energy and industrial product attributes. It is recommended to conduct band trading [51][52][53] - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances increased, and spot hedging at high levels was the main strategy. The iron ore price has risen rapidly, but the supply is still in a relatively loose pattern. It is recommended for spot enterprises to hedge at high levels [54][55][56] - **Ferroalloys**: Attention should be paid to the impact of hurricanes on manganese ore, and the price fluctuated strongly. Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a positive feedback state of demand and cost. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [58][59] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The escalation of geopolitical tensions increased concerns about interest rate hikes, and gold and silver were under pressure. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and the expectation of interest rate hikes, gold and silver prices are expected to face a period of "headwinds" in the short - term. Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can participate with a short - term bearish view [61][62][63] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The marginal easing of the Middle East conflict led to a rebound in precious metal prices. The market for platinum and palladium is affected by geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of long - spread trading when the price difference is low [66][67] - **Copper**: Geopolitical risks continued, and copper prices fluctuated at a low level. The copper price is affected by the situation in the Middle East and supply - demand fundamentals. It is recommended to pay attention to macro changes [68][69] - **Alumina**: Alumina prices declined with market sentiment. Guinea's potential reduction in bauxite exports and new domestic production capacity will affect the supply of alumina. The price is expected to be under pressure [70][71][72] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Geopolitical risks and macro - concerns jointly expanded, and aluminum prices weakened. Affected by the Middle East situation and macro - factors, the financial attribute of aluminum prices is significantly dragged down [73][74][75] - **Cast Aluminum Alloys**: Macro - expectations had a negative impact, and the market was under pressure along with aluminum prices. Affected by the Middle East situation and macro - factors, the market is under pressure [77][78] - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to macro and capital sentiment. The zinc market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and geopolitical factors. The price may fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [81][82][83] - **Lead**: It is recommended to wait and see. The lead market is affected by factors such as inventory and supply. The current price is in a weak - fluctuation state [85][86][87] - **Nickel**: The short - term price was dominated by the macro - environment. The nickel price is affected by both macro - factors and industrial fundamentals, and it is recommended to be cautious [88] - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, it followed the nickel price. The stainless - steel market is affected by global economic concerns and cost factors. It is recommended to wait for the macro - environment to stabilize [91] Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: Israel stated that it would suspend air strikes on energy facilities, and oil prices maintained a high - level fluctuation. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the container shipping market is facing cost and demand uncertainties. It is recommended to pay attention to military deployments and shipping companies' cargo - receiving situations [105][106][107] - **Dry Bulk Freight Rates**: The reduction in Guinea's bauxite exports in April may limit the rental height of large ships. The dry - bulk shipping market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. The long - term impact of the Middle East conflict on the market needs to be observed [108][109][110] - **Carbon Emissions**: The Chinese carbon market is still dominated by over - the - counter agreement transactions, and EU carbon futures continue to decline. The Chinese carbon market is expected to have increased trading activity in the medium - term, while the EU carbon market is facing policy and energy - related uncertainties [110][111][113] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances increased the amplitude of the market. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, the international oil price maintains high volatility. It is recommended to go long at a high level [115][116][118] - **Asphalt**: Supply was tight, demand was weak, and concerns about raw materials continued. Affected by the Middle East conflict, the supply of asphalt is expected to decrease, but the demand recovery is slow. The price is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [119][120] - **Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitical factors, the cost fluctuated at a high level. The fuel - oil market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to go long on the near - month LU contract on dips and pay attention to the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels [122][123] - **LPG**: Middle - East energy facilities were attacked, and the market was strong. The LPG price is affected by oil prices and supply disruptions. It is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [125][126][127] - **Natural Gas**: Geopolitical risks continued, and the upward trend remained unchanged. The natural - gas market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions. It is recommended to sell deep - out - of - the - money put options on TTF futures [128][129][130] - **PX & PTA**: There is an expected unplanned reduction in supply, and PTA enterprises may be forced to reduce production. Affected by raw - material supply concerns, PX and PTA may face supply shortages. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [132][133][134] - **BZ & EB**: The shortage of raw - material supply led to an improved market outlook. Affected by raw - material supply concerns, the supply of benzene and styrene may be affected. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [135][136][137] - **Ethylene Glycol**: It has entered a de - stocking pattern. Affected by raw - material supply and import reduction, the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol has improved. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [139] - **Short - Fiber**: The processing margin fluctuated within a range. The short - fiber market is affected by raw - material prices and supply - demand relationships. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [141][142] - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory continued to decline. The bottle - chip market is affected by production restarts and seasonal demand. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [143][144] - **Propylene**: Supply was tight. The propylene market is affected by cost and supply factors. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [145][146] - **Plastic PP**: The gross profit of MTO - made PP increased. The plastic and PP markets are affected by macro - factors and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to hold long positions in relevant contracts [147][148][149] - **Caustic Soda**: The market was weak. The caustic - soda market is affected by supply, demand, and cost factors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [150][151][152] - **PVC**: The market mainly fluctuated. The PVC market is affected by international supply reduction and domestic supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to buy on dips [153][155] - **Soda Ash**: It fluctuated widely with a downward trend. The soda - ash market is affected by supply, demand, and macro - factors. The price is expected to continue to be weak [156][157][159] - **Glass**: It fluctuated widely with a downward trend. The glass market is affected by real - estate demand and supply - demand relationships. The price is expected to fluctuate widely with a downward trend [160][161][162] - **Methanol**: It remained firm at a high level. Affected by the situation in Iran, the supply of methanol is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be strong [163][164][165] - **Urea**: It fluctuated weakly. The urea market is affected by domestic and international supply - demand relationships and policies. The price is expected to fluctuate [166][167] - **Pulp**: The port inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the supply pressure was relieved. The pulp market is still in a state of oversupply, but the inventory reduction provides some support. It is recommended to wait and see and consider a small amount of long - position layout [168][169][170] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The transaction was average, and the market had only rigid - demand purchases. The offset - printing - paper market is affected by supply - demand relationships and raw - material prices. It is recommended to go short on rallies [171][172][173] - **Logs**: The increase in import costs supported the market's upward trend. The log market is affected by cost, supply, and demand factors. It is recommended to go long on dips [173][174][175] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The RU warehouse receipts continued to accumulate, but the rate slowed down. The natural - rubber market is affected by factors such as inventory and tire production. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU contract and consider short - selling the NR contract [177][178][180] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The production of tires increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The butadiene - rubber market is affected by factors such as tire production and macro - factors. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BR contract [184][185][186]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price decreased due to the geopolitical situation and Fed's stance, with the key support level broken and the center of gravity shifting down. The alumina price is under pressure with new capacity coming online. The aluminum price is dragged down by the financial attribute due to the Middle - East situation. Other metals like zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, etc. also have their respective price trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitics, and cost [1][3][8][14] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2605 closed at 94,420 yuan/ton, down 4.52%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 8,491 lots to 584,000 lots. The average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the spot market was 95,600 yuan/ton, down 3,360 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - **Alumina**: The alumina 2505 contract fell 38 yuan/ton to 3,027 yuan/ton, and the weighted positions increased by 1,330 lots. The spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [8] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum 2605 contract decreased by 655 yuan to 24,180 yuan/ton, and the positions decreased by 39,600 lots [14] - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc 2605 fell 3.11% to 22,705 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index positions increased by 3,983 lots to 209,700 lots. The spot market trading was not as good as the previous day [23] - **Lead**: The Shanghai lead 2605 fell 1.59% to 16,415 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index positions increased by 2,146 lots to 135,100 lots. The spot market trading was light [27] - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2605 fell 3,990 to 131,550 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 16,909 to 330,296 lots. The spot premiums of different nickel types changed [32] - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2605 fell 200 to 13,855 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 9,613 to 182,402 lots. The spot prices of different resources were within certain ranges [38] - **Tin**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2604 closed at 345,730 yuan/ton, down 24,490 yuan/ton or 6.61%, and the positions increased by 2,114 lots to 80,600 lots. The spot price continued to decline [41] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The main contract of carbonate lithium 2605 fell 9,700 to 142,600 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 25,270 to 595,501 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium both decreased [55] 3.2 Important Information - **Inflation and Fed Policy**: The US February PPI was 3.4% year - on - year, and the core PPI was 3.9%, a one - year high. The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, raised the inflation expectation, and still expected to cut interest rates once this year [2][15] - **Geopolitical Situation**: The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continued, and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard launched a large - scale missile attack on oil and energy facilities related to the US in the region [15][19] - **Inventory Information**: As of March 19, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 8.85% week - on - week to 523,100 tons; the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased to 266,100 tons; the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory reached 78,000 tons as of March 16 [2][24][29] - **Industry News**: Guinea plans to cut bauxite exports in early April; some new alumina production lines in China are expected to be put into trial production; GlobalData said that the global photovoltaic installed capacity will reach nearly 6 terawatts by 2031 [9][48] 3.3 Logic Analysis - **Copper**: The geopolitical situation and Fed's stance led to a decrease in copper price. The supply of copper ore was tight, and the downstream pricing enthusiasm declined [3] - **Alumina**: Guinea's bauxite export policy needs to be monitored. The new domestic alumina capacity needs time to be fully released, and the subsequent pressure on alumina comes from the supply side [10] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The Middle - East situation led to concerns about economic slowdown, and the financial attribute dragged down the aluminum price [16] - **Zinc**: The non - ferrous sector was under pressure due to macro factors. The domestic refined zinc supply increased, but the demand recovery was insufficient. However, the expected reduction of overseas smelters and low LME inventory provided some support [25] - **Lead**: The increase in social inventory and inflow of imported lead suppressed the lead price, but the loss of secondary lead smelters provided some support [30] - **Nickel**: The weakening copper price and the tense Middle - East situation affected the nickel price. The nickel ore price was firm, but the nickel - iron price was under pressure [35] - **Stainless Steel**: The overseas manufacturing contraction led to some orders flowing back to China, but the concern about global economic recession still dominated the price trend [39] - **Tin**: The impact of Indonesia's potential tin export ban was limited. The recovery of tin production in Myanmar and the weak downstream demand affected the tin price [43] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The negative growth of new - energy vehicle sales in March and the expected production of Jiangxi Xikeng Mine affected the supply - demand relationship, and the price center shifted down [57] 3.4 Trading Strategy - **Copper**: Unilateral: The price broke the key support level and the center of gravity shifted down; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [5][6][7] - **Alumina**: Unilateral: New capacity is coming soon, and the alumina price is under pressure; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [12] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Unilateral: Weak operation with the sector; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [17][18] - **Zinc**: Unilateral: The zinc price may be weak in the short term due to macro and fundamental factors; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [26] - **Lead**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [31] - **Nickel**: Unilateral: The price fluctuates weakly; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [36][37] - **Stainless Steel**: Unilateral: Wait for the macro situation to stabilize; Arbitrage: Wait and see [41] - **Tin**: Unilateral: The tin price remains weak; Options: Wait and see [44] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Unilateral: The oscillation range moves down; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [58][59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices are expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend due to high international oil prices and the downward revision of sugar production forecasts by major sugar - producing countries [9] - In the domestic market, although there is pressure on the supply side as domestic sugar production is likely to increase significantly during the peak crushing season, and large sugar imports from January to February have a negative impact on the market, considering the low sugar prices, possible tightening of import policies, and high oil prices, the downward space for sugar prices is relatively limited [9] - For trading strategies, in the short - term, international sugar prices are expected to be slightly bullish and volatile. Zhengzhou sugar prices have dropped sharply but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize, then buy low and sell high through rolling operations. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, it is recommended to sell put options [10][11][12] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,440 with a rise of 70 (1.30%), trading volume of 117,032 (a decrease of 11,627), and an open interest of 221,864 (an increase of 5,080); SR01 closed at 5,570 with a rise of 61 (1.11%), trading volume of 3,327 (a decrease of 825), and an open interest of 19,402 (a decrease of 597); SR05 closed at 5,417 with a rise of 74 (1.38%), trading volume of 337,734 (a decrease of 31,600), and an open interest of 372,106 (a decrease of 15,641) [3] - **Spot Market**: In the spot market, the prices in different regions showed different changes. For example, the price in Liuzhou was 5470 with no change, while the price in Kunming was 5315 with an increase of 5 [3] - **Basis**: The basis in different regions also varied. For example, the basis in Liuzhou was 53, while in Kunming it was - 102 [3] - **Inter - month Spread**: The SR05 - SR01 spread was - 153 with a rise of 13; the SR09 - SR05 spread was 23 with a decrease of 4; the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 130 with a rise of 9 [3] - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.30, and a freight of 47.00, the in - quota price was 4133, the out - of - quota price was 5253, the spread with Liuzhou was 217, the spread with Rizhao was 387, and the spread with the futures price was 164. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 1.22, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4060, the out - of - quota price was 5159, the spread with Liuzhou was 311, the spread with Rizhao was 481, and the spread with the futures price was 258 [3] Part 2: Market Judgment - **Important Information**: In February, the actual arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar was 0 tons, and the forecasted arrival in March was also 0 tons. As of the week of March 18, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased from 47 to 40, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased from 1.5619 million tons to 1.2827 million tons. From March 18 - 19, 5 large - scale sugar mills in Guangxi completed the sugar - pressing process. As of now, 19 sugar mills in the 2025/2026 sugar - pressing season in Guangxi have completed the process, 49 less than the same period last year, and the sugar - pressing capacity has decreased by 363,000 tons per day compared to the same period last year [5] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the sugar production increase in India and Thailand this season is likely to be lower than market expectations, and many global institutions are lowering their sugar production forecasts for the 2026/2027 season, which supports international sugar prices. Domestically, although there is supply - side pressure due to the peak crushing season and expected significant increase in sugar production, considering factors such as low sugar prices, possible tightening of import policies, and high oil prices, the downward space for sugar prices is limited [9] - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, wait for the price to stabilize and then buy low and sell high through rolling operations. For arbitrage, wait and see. For options, sell put options [10][11][12] Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, white sugar basis for different months, and spreads between different futures contracts [16][19][23][26][29][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the price of oils and fats is affected by geopolitical factors, with increased volatility and likely to be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading. P59 and Y59 can consider opportunities for high - level reverse spreads, and it is recommended to wait and see for options [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot price and basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2605 is 8616, up 76; palm oil 2605 is 9796, up 104; rapeseed oil 2605 is 9854, up 74. The basis of each variety varies by region [2] - **Monthly spread closing price**: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil is 86, down 2; palm oil is 90, up 6; rapeseed oil is 146, up 5 [2] - **Cross - variety spread**: The 05 contract of Y - P is - 1180, down 28; OI - Y is 1238; OI - P is 58, down 30; the oil - meal ratio is 2.83, up 0.02 [2] - **Import profit**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 96, and the FOB price of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is 1140, with a disk profit of - 1396 [2] - **Weekly commercial inventory of oils and fats**: In the 11th week of 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 88.6 tons, palm oil is 84.2 tons, and rapeseed oil is 28.2 tons [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International market**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects the palm oil price to remain above 4450 ringgit per ton in the near term. Higher crude oil prices may increase the attractiveness of palm oil as a biofuel substitute, but weak global economic growth and geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East may limit the upside [4] - **Domestic market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm oil**: Futures prices rose by more than 1%, inventory continued to increase, with a 3.68% increase week - on - week. The import profit was inverted, and the basis was stable with a slight decline. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term, and no - order investors are advised to wait and see, considering P59 high - level reverse spreads [4][5] - **Soybean oil**: Futures prices rose slightly. The soybean crushing volume increased, the inventory decreased by 1.66% week - on - week, and the basis was stable with a slight decline. It is recommended to maintain the reverse spread idea [5] - **Rapeseed oil**: Futures prices rose slightly. The inventory increased, the import profit inversion widened, and the basis is expected to weaken. Although there is support from low inventory and geopolitical factors, the increase may be suppressed in the future [6] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to wait and see due to high volatility [8] - **Arbitrage**: Consider high - level reverse spreads for P59 and Y59 [9] - **Options**: Wait and see [10] 3.4 Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of the basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [13][14][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The peanut spot price is expected to remain relatively stable in the short term, with the supply of peanut kernels still low and downstream demand still weak. The peanut oil spot price is stable, and the peanut meal price has been stable recently. The theoretical profit of oil mills from pressing is relatively good. The peanut futures are oscillating at a low level, and the 05 contract is oscillating at a high level [3][4][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Data - **Futures盘面**: PK604 closed at 8080, down 28 or -0.35%, with a trading volume of 2,395 (an increase of 86.09%) and an open interest of 9,177 (a decrease of 4.26%); PK610 closed at 8360, up 16 or 0.19%, with a trading volume of 3,137 (an increase of 14.99%) and an open interest of 15,536 (an increase of 4.51%); PK601 closed at 8344, up 18 or 0.22%, with a trading volume of 21 (a decrease of 76.40%) and an open interest of 469 (an increase of 1.30%) [1] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7600, 8000, and 8000 respectively, with no change. The price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3350, and the price of Rizhao soybean meal was 3310 (up 20). The price of peanut oil was 14300 (up 50), and the price of Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8740 (up 40). The basis of PK604 in Henan Nanyang was -480, and in Shandong Jining and Linyi was -80. The difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was -7, and the difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 5560. The import price of Sudanese peanuts was 8600, and that of Senegalese peanuts was stable [1] - **Spreads**: The spread of PK01 - PK04 was 264 (up 46), the spread of PK04 - PK10 was -280 (down 44), and the spread of PK10 - PK01 was 16 (down 2) [1] 3.2 Second Part: Market Analysis - The peanut price in Henan is stable, while that in Northeast China is weak. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin, and Changtu, Liaoning decreased by 0.05 yuan/jin to 4.55 yuan/jin, and the price of Huayu 23 in Xingcheng remained stable at 4.35 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan is 3.5 - 3.95 yuan/jin, and that in Junan, Shandong is 3.4 yuan/jin, both remaining stable. The import price of Senegalese peanut kernels is stable, with the price of oil - use peanuts at 7200 yuan/ton and that of commodity peanuts at 7700 yuan/ton. The purchase price of some peanut oil mills is stable, with the mainstream transaction price at 7200 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 7850 yuan/ton. The price of soybean oil rose, while the price of peanut oil remained stable. The domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil was quoted at 14300 yuan/ton, and the small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was quoted at 16500 yuan/ton. The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal rose by 10 yuan/ton to 3320 yuan/ton. The price difference per unit protein between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and peanut meal is strong in the short term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3200 yuan/ton [3][4] 3.3 Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 05 peanut contract is oscillating at the bottom, and it is recommended to go long on the 05 peanut contract with a light position on dips [7] - **Month Spread**: It is recommended to wait and see [8] - **Options**: It is recommended to sell the put option pk605 - P - 7700 on dips [9] 3.4 Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 4 - 10 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [11][16][18]

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 guochao_qh@chinastock.co m.cn | 焦煤、焦炭日报 | | --- | 第一部分 市场信息 黑色金属日报 2026 年 03 月 19 日 研究员：郭超 期货从业证号： F03119918 投资咨询证号： Z0022905 :021-65789229 : | | 焦煤期货价格 | | | 焦炭期货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | JM01 | 1480 | 1466.5 | 13.5 | J01 | 1891 | 1887 | 4 | | JM05 | 1159.5 | 1156.5 | 3 | J05 | 1721 | 1721.5 | -0.5 | | JM09 | 1272 | 1260.5 | 11.5 | J09 | 1804.5 | 1803 | 1.5 | | JM01-05 | 320.5 | 310 | 10.5 | J01-05 | 170 | 165.5 | 4.5 | | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and with crude oil expected to be strong, US corn is expected to oscillate strongly at the bottom. The supply of North China corn is stable, with limited upward space for corn spot prices, while Northeast corn prices are stable, and the purchase price at the northern port remains unchanged today. The price of North China wheat continues to rise, with all wheat auctions today being successfully sold, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn is widening. With increased wheat auctions in March, the upward space for Northeast corn spot prices is expected to be limited, and the 05 corn contract is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [7]. - The 05 US corn contract has support at 450 cents per bushel, and it is advisable to try short - term long positions on the 05 corn contract when the price is low. For arbitrage, it is recommended to widen the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts when the price is low [8][9]. - For options, a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations is suggested [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Data - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, trading volume change percentages, open interests, and open interest change percentages of multiple futures contracts such as C2601, C2605, C2509, CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 are provided. For example, the closing price of C2601 is 2361, with a price increase of 2 and a price increase percentage of 0.08%, a trading volume of 2,600 with a 20.43% increase, and an open interest of 12,708 with a 0.45% decrease [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The current spot prices of corn in regions like Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port are given, along with their price changes and basis values. For instance, the spot price of corn in Qinggang is 2225, with a price decrease of 5 and a basis of - 177. The spot prices of starch from enterprises such as Longfeng, Cofco, Yihai (Heilongjiang), Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade are also provided [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spreads and their price changes between different corn and starch futures contracts are presented, including corn inter - delivery spreads (e.g., C01 - C05), starch inter - delivery spreads (e.g., CS01 - CS05), and cross - variety spreads (e.g., CS09 - C09) [4]. Market Analysis - **Corn**: Crude oil is at a high level, US corn prices are rising, and the global corn supply pressure has weakened, so US corn will continue to oscillate strongly. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, with the import price from Brazil in July at 2372 yuan. The closing prices at northern ports are stable, around 2400 yuan, and the spot prices in Northeast corn - producing areas are also stable. The supply of corn for deep - processing has decreased, and the spot price of corn is stable, with the price difference between North China and Northeast corn widening. Wheat and corn auctions are ongoing, the price of North China wheat is rising, around 2600 yuan per ton, the price difference between wheat and corn is narrowing, and the cost - effectiveness of corn is weakening, with wheat being relatively stronger in the short term. The domestic breeding demand is average, the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased, and the downstream is replenishing stocks, so the corn spot price is relatively strong in the short term. Recently, the supply of Northeast corn has increased, the downstream and traders are replenishing stocks, the price is stable, the port inventory has increased, the purchase price at the northern port is stable today, and the North China corn price is also stable. The 05 corn contract is oscillating narrowly due to the impact of auctions, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with attention to auction policies [3][5]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks delivering corn to Shandong deep - processing enterprises has decreased, the spot price of Shandong corn is stable, and the starch price in Shandong is around 3020 yuan. The spot price of Northeast starch is also strong. This week, the inventory of corn starch has decreased, with the manufacturer's inventory at 120.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 0.42%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. Currently, the starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. In the past few years, the average income from by - products has been over 600 yuan, and today the by - product contribution in Shandong is 667 yuan (732 yuan in Heilongjiang). Recently, the by - product price has been relatively strong, higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. North China corn is relatively strong in the short term, while Northeast corn is relatively stable. The supply of corn is expected to increase, the downstream operating rate is increasing, the upward space for the corn spot price is limited, and enterprises are already profitable. The 05 starch contract is oscillating narrowly following corn, and with North China corn remaining strong, the upward space for the starch spot price is limited in the short term. It is expected that the 05 starch contract will oscillate at a high level in the short term [6]. Corn Options - Option strategies suggest a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations, and relevant option contract information such as C2605 - P - 2260.DCE and C2603 - P - 2240.DCE is provided, including the underlying asset price, closing price, price change percentage, implied volatility, and other data [10][11]. Related Attachments - Multiple graphs are presented, including the northern port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and iFinD Information [13][14][18].