1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans/meal, the monthly supply - demand report has limited impact. The market rebounds due to full reflection of previous negatives and macro - factors. South American demand is good, and overall price support exists but with limited upside. In China, supply is ample, demand is good, and inventory pressure is relatively large, so prices are expected to fluctuate [2][4][6]. - For sugar, globally, supply is transitioning from a deficit to a surplus. International prices are expected to rebound at low levels, and in the domestic market, Zheng sugar is likely to oscillate in a range and rebound in the short - term [11]. - For the oil and fat sector, the US biodiesel has been digested, and the oil and fat market has declined. The increase in production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to slow down. Indonesian inventory is low, and the price of palm oil is supported. Domestic soybean oil is in the process of inventory accumulation, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, so prices are expected to oscillate and provide opportunities to buy on dips [17]. - For corn/corn starch, the US corn futures have declined, and the rebound space is limited. In China, corn supply is still scarce, and spot prices are expected to fall. The 01 corn contract is in bottom - range oscillation with limited downward space [26][28]. - For live pigs, large - scale enterprises maintain high slaughter volumes, and overall supply remains stable. With relatively high inventory, there is downward pressure on prices [34]. - For peanuts, the supply of new peanuts is still limited, and the market is stable. The 01 peanut contract is in short - term bottom - range oscillation [40]. - For eggs, as restocking in each link nears completion, egg prices are expected to face pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [47]. - For apples, the high - quality fruit rate of early - maturing apples is poor. The opening price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high, and the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [54]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, new cotton is entering the acquisition period. The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand improvement is limited, so the market is expected to be slightly weak [65]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans/Meal - **Outer - market situation**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.4% to 1062.75 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.75% to 290 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Relevant information**: USDA export sales report forecast shows expected US 2025/26 market - year soybean export net sales of 40 - 150 tons; Anec reported Brazilian soybean and meal export volumes from September 14 - 20; extreme weather may delay Brazilian soybean planting by 2 - 3 weeks; Chinese oil mills' soybean inventory increased, and meal inventory also increased [2][3]. - **Logic analysis**: The monthly supply - demand report has limited impact, and the market rebounds due to previous negatives and macro - factors. South American demand is good, and overall price support exists but with limited upside. In China, supply is ample, demand is good, and inventory pressure is relatively large, so prices are expected to fluctuate [4][6]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Unilateral: wait and see; Arbitrage: expand the MRM05 spread; Options: wait and see [7]. Sugar - **Outer - market changes**: ICE US raw sugar and London white sugar prices both fell [7]. - **Important information**: Brazilian sugar exports in the first two weeks of September decreased compared to last year; 10 - month contract delivery information; the global sugar market is transitioning from a deficit to a surplus, and Brazilian sugar production has uncertainties [8][9][10]. - **Logic analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and global inventory is increasing. The expected increase in global sugar production is high, and prices are expected to rebound at low levels. Domestically, a large amount of imported sugar has entered the market, and Zheng sugar is likely to oscillate in a range and rebound in the short - term [11]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: consider buying near the previous low; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell out - of - the - money put options near the previous low [12][13]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Outer - market situation**: CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil prices both decreased [15]. - **Relevant information**: Malaysian palm oil production decreased in early September; Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase; Chinese oil and fat trading volume decreased [16]. - **Logic analysis**: US biodiesel has been digested, and the oil and fat market has declined. The increase in production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to slow down. Indonesian inventory is low, and the price of palm oil is supported. Domestic soybean oil is in the process of inventory accumulation, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory [17]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: consider buying on dips; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [18][19][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Outer - market changes**: CBOT corn futures fell [23]. - **Important information**: CBOT corn futures fell due to profit - taking and a stronger dollar; Chinese port corn and related product inventories changed; corn processing and starch production increased, and starch inventory decreased; North port purchase prices were weak [24][25]. - **Logic analysis**: US corn futures have declined, and the rebound space is limited. In China, corn supply is still scarce, and spot prices are expected to fall. The 01 corn contract is in bottom - range oscillation with limited downward space [26][28]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: wait for the 12 - month contract to correct and buy the 01 contract after it stabilizes; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [29][30][31]. Live Pigs - **Relevant information**: Pig prices are generally falling; piglet and sow prices are also falling; agricultural product wholesale price indices and pork prices decreased [33]. - **Logic analysis**: Large - scale enterprises maintain high slaughter volumes, and overall supply remains stable. With relatively high inventory, there is downward pressure on prices [34]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Unilateral: take a short - term bearish view on near - month contracts; Arbitrage: conduct LH15 reverse spreads; Options: buy long - term call options [35]. Peanuts - **Important information**: Peanut prices increased slightly; oil mills' purchase prices and arrival volumes were affected by rain; peanut oil and meal prices were stable; peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [36][37][39]. - **Logic analysis**: The supply of new peanuts is still limited, and the market is stable. The 01 peanut contract is in short - term bottom - range oscillation [40]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: the 11 and 01 contracts are in bottom - range oscillation, and try short - term long positions on the 05 contract after it corrects; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [41][42][43]. Eggs - **Important information**: Egg prices are oscillating, with some areas stable and some falling; the number of laying hens in production increased in August; egg sales and inventories decreased [45][46]. - **Trading logic**: As restocking in each link nears completion, egg prices are expected to face pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [47]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: consider short - selling on rallies; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [48][49]. Apples - **Important information**: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased; apple exports increased, and imports decreased slightly; mid - season apple prices were firm, and new - season apple prices varied by region; storage merchants' profits decreased [51][52][53]. - **Trading logic**: The high - quality fruit rate of early - maturing apples is poor. The opening price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high, and the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [54]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: wait and see; Arbitrage: wait and see first; Options: wait and see [57][58]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Outer - market impact**: ICE US cotton prices fell [60]. - **Important information**: The Fed cut interest rates; Indian cotton weekly and cumulative listings changed; Zhangjiagang bonded - area cotton inventory decreased slightly [61][62]. - **Trading logic**: New cotton is entering the acquisition period. The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand improvement is limited, so the market is expected to be slightly weak [65]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: expect US cotton to oscillate, and Zheng cotton to be slightly weak, and trade opportunistically; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to have a differentiated performance, with rebar likely to continue reducing production and hot-rolled coils likely to resume production. The overall steel market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to peak-season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [2]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply side is supported by policies, but the upside potential is restricted by steel demand and profit. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a long - position strategy on dips in the long term [9][11]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels due to the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter and market expectation fluctuations, despite the potential recovery of domestic manufacturing steel demand in September [12][14]. - For ferroalloys, silicon iron may rebound in the short term but is under high - supply pressure, while manganese silicon is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term due to cost support and supply - demand pressure [16][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Relevant Information - The article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a National Unified Market" in Qiushi magazine emphasizes the governance of low - price disorderly competition in enterprises and the withdrawal of backward production capacity [2]. - In early September, key steel enterprises produced 20.87 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.087 million tons, a 7.2% increase from the previous period. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in some regions have changed, with rebar in Shanghai up 20 yuan to 3240 yuan, and hot - rolled coils in Shanghai up 10 yuan to 3410 yuan [2]. Logical Analysis - Affected by positive news, the black - metal sector rose sharply in the night session. Last week, the pig - iron output recovered rapidly, rebar production decreased, and hot - rolled coil production increased. Rebar is expected to continue reducing production due to heavy losses, while hot - rolled coils are expected to resume production as they are still profitable. Rebar inventory is accumulating faster than last year, and its apparent demand is declining; hot - rolled coil inventory has started to decline, and its demand has improved significantly. Steel prices may face pressure if coal mine production cuts do not happen, but the decline may be limited due to pre - National Day restocking [2]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Steel is expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Coking Coal and Coke Relevant Information - In Inner Mongolia, 15 coal mines had monthly raw coal output exceeding the announced capacity by more than 10% from January to June 2025, including 3 coking coal mines with a total capacity of about 2.7 million tons. One of them has been shut down for rectification. In Tangshan, some steel and coking enterprises have received notices of environmental protection production restrictions [7]. - The warehouse - receipt prices of coke and coking coal in different regions are provided, such as the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke in Rizhao Port is 1591 yuan/ton [8]. Logical Analysis - Future coal mine over - production inspections may support coking coal prices. Domestic coking coal production is expected to be restricted, and it is difficult to return to the high level of the first half of the year. Although imported coal can provide some supplements, the upside potential of coking coal prices is restricted by steel demand and profit [9][11]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Considering the recent significant increase, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a long - position strategy on dips in the long term [11]. - Arbitrage: The long - January and short - May spread of coking coal can be held [11]. - Options: Wait and see [11]. - Spot - futures: Wait and see [11]. Iron Ore Relevant Information - In the US, industrial production and retail sales in August increased more than expected. The transaction area of new and second - hand housing in 10 key cities changed last week, with new housing up 4.4% month - on - month and down 5.3% year - on - year, and second - hand housing up 18.7% month - on - month and up 10.2% year - on - year. The inventory of iron ore in seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 506,000 tons to 12.991 million tons from September 8th to 14th. The spot prices of some iron ore varieties in Qingdao Port increased, such as PB powder (60.8%) up 9 to 785 yuan [12]. Logical Analysis - In the third quarter, global iron ore shipments increased significantly, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas steel demand maintained high growth. Although domestic manufacturing steel demand may recover in September, iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels due to market expectation fluctuations [12][14]. Trading Strategies No trading strategies for iron ore are provided in the given text. Ferroalloys Relevant Information - On the 16th, the spot prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port increased, and the transaction prices of different varieties also changed. The spot prices of silicon iron increased by 50 - 120 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of manganese silicon increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton [16][17]. Logical Analysis - For silicon iron, the supply decreased slightly but remained at a high level. Market sentiment was boosted by anti - involution trading and Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, but the high - supply pressure remains. For manganese silicon, the alloy factory output increased slightly, the demand side was under pressure, but the cost side was supported by low port inventory [16][17]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: For silicon iron, it may be strong in the short term but under high - supply pressure, with limited upside potential; for manganese silicon, it is recommended to conduct high - level spot hedging [16][17][18]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [18][20]. - Options: For silicon iron, sell straddle option combinations at high prices; for manganese silicon, wait and see [18][20].

国债期货持仓日报 2025年9月17日 国债期货成交概要 | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | 成交额 | +/- | 持仓量 | +/- | 持仓保证金(亿元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2512 | 108.16 | 0.13% | 101,611 | -27% | 1,098 | -27% | 222,606 | 6,322 | 48.2 | | T2603 | 107.86 | 0.16% | 10,278 | -4% | 111 | -4% | 23,281 | -830 | 5.0 | | T2606 | 107.68 | 0.15% | 231 | 66% | 2 | 66% | 302 | 7 6 | 0.1 | | 合 计 | | | 112,120 | -25% | 1,211 | -25% | 246,189 | 5,568 | 53.2 | | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | 成交额 | +/- | 持仓量 | +/- | 持仓保证金(亿元） ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The copper price has corrected due to concerns about the Fed's interest - rate decision, and the supply is tight while the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend. The import window has opened narrowly, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - The electrolytic aluminum market has a tight overseas supply and a marginal recovery in domestic downstream demand. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate and rise after a correction [19][20] - The casting aluminum alloy market is affected by policy changes. The supply is tight, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - The zinc market has a small reduction in domestic refined zinc supply in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term [34][39] - The lead market has an upward - moving price center due to downstream pre - holiday stocking. However, there are risks of price decline if the import window opens or the production of recycling enterprises resumes [41] - The nickel market has a relatively optimistic macro - atmosphere, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [47] - The stainless - steel market is expected to remain high and oscillate due to the approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season [53] - The tin market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate decision. The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [60] - The industrial silicon market may turn into a supply - surplus state if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price is at a relatively low valuation with a bottom support, and long positions can be considered at low prices [67] - The polysilicon market has a long - term upward price trend, but there is a short - term weakening due to the slow progress of capacity integration. The price of the 11 - contract may return to the spot price [72] - The lithium carbonate market has an optimistic atmosphere due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the price has support from the spot market [77] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80,560 yuan/ton, down 0.65%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 11,113 lots to 510,000 lots. The downstream purchasing sentiment was poor, and the spot premiums in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: In August, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Anglo American and Codelco will jointly operate mines in Chile, and Australia's Orion Minerals may get funds for its project. China's copper product output in August reached a multi - year high [3][4][5] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals affect the copper price. The supply is tight, and the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - **Trading Strategy**: The copper price has fallen from a high level. Hold long positions in cross - market arbitrage and wait and see for options [13] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2511 contract fell 48 yuan to 2,916 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend [10] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Ningba Mining Company may resume production. The industry's average profit in August increased, and the operating capacity and开工 rate of alumina in China changed [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - **Trading Strategy**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the price will return to a bearish fundamental pattern [16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract fell 80 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [18] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year. The electrolytic aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and some capacity replacement plans were announced [18] - **Trading Logic**: The market is cautious before the Fed's interest - rate meeting. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic downstream demand is recovering marginally [19] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 20,435 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions were stable, and the import price decreased [24] - **Related Information**: Policy changes have affected the recycling aluminum industry, and the average cost and profit of the casting aluminum alloy industry in August changed. The casting aluminum alloy futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [24][25][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes have affected the supply, and the downstream demand is increasing. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract fell 0.13% to 22,285 yuan/ton. The downstream purchasing sentiment was weak, and the spot premium increase was limited [32] - **Related Information**: The construction of the Zhugongtang lead - zinc mine project in Hezhang County has made breakthroughs [33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. Pay attention to the impact of macro - factors [34] - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [39] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2510 contract rose 0.12% to 17,100 yuan/ton. The market purchasing activity increased, and the supply of recycled refined lead was scarce [37] - **Related Information**: The scrap battery price is expected to remain firm, and the lead ingot inventory increased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The lead price has moved upward due to downstream pre - holiday stocking, but there are risks of price decline [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai lead price may operate within a range in the short term, and beware of the price decline risk [42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2511 fell 940 yuan to 121,990 yuan/ton. The spot premiums remained unchanged [43] - **Related Information**: The Tatty nickel mine will restart, and some companies have investment or acquisition plans [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - atmosphere is relatively optimistic, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China [47] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [48][49][50] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2511 contract fell 120 yuan to 12,935 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [52] - **Important Information**: Taiwan's Yieh United is applying for an anti - dumping investigation, and Japan has launched an anti - dumping investigation on stainless - steel products [53] - **Logic Analysis**: The approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season support the stainless - steel price [53] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to remain high and oscillate. Wait and see for arbitrage [55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 272,540 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton or 0.07%. The spot market atmosphere was average [57] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased in August [58][59] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main industrial silicon futures contract oscillated strongly and closed at 8,965 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The spot price increased [64][65] - **Related Information**: An important article mentioned measures to promote the construction of a unified national market [66] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply and demand situation may change if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price has a bottom support [67] - **Strategy**: Long positions can be considered at low prices [68] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main polysilicon futures contract oscillated narrowly and closed at 53,490 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The spot price range moved up [69][71] - **Related Information**: The national standard committee has completed the solicitation of opinions on relevant standards [71] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price trend is upward, but there is a short - term weakening. The 11 - contract price may return to the spot price [72] - **Strategy**: Buy at low prices and set stop - loss and take - profit points. Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Take profit on selling out - of - the - money put options [73] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 73,640 yuan/ton. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [74] - **Important Information**: BYD launched a new electric - bus platform, and a new lithium - powder production project was proposed [75] - **Logic Analysis**: The market atmosphere is optimistic due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong [77] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [78][79][80]

大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 9 月 17 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场: 今天白天，贵金属部分多头在 FOMC 会议结果即将公布之际 获利了结，出现跳水。伦敦金当前回落至 3665 美元附近; 伦敦当前回落至 41.6 美 元附近。受外盘驱动，沪金最终收跌 0.36%，报 835.08 元/克; 沪银主力合约最终 收涨 1.77%，报 9906 元/千克。 2.美元指数: 美元指数小幅反弹，当前交投于 96.8 附近。 3.美债收益率:10 年美债收益率低位盘整，当前交投于 4.04%附近。 4.人民币汇率:人民币兑美元再度走强，当前交投于 7.1055 附近。 1 / 8 【重要资讯】 大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 场博弈聚焦于交 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 09 月 17 日 1/ 5 大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 804.5 | 803.5 | 1.0 | I01-I05 | 22.0 | 21.5 | 0.5 | | DCE05 | 782.5 | 782.0 | 0.5 | I05-I09 | 19.0 | 19.5 | -0.5 | | DCE09 | 763.5 | 762.5 | 1.0 | I09-I01 | -41.0 | -41.0 | 0.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 785 | 776 | 9 | 855 | 43 | 65 | 84 | | 纽曼粉 | 793 | 786 | 7 | 849 | 37 | 59 | 78 | | 麦克粉 | 785 | 776 | 9 | 85 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Container Shipping**: Spot freight rates are in a downward channel, and the decline is expected to slow down in mid - to late October. The overall freight rate center is expected to move down in the second half of the year due to tariff suppression. The 10 - contract valuation has room to decline, and trading strategies include weak oscillations for single - sided trading and specific arbitrage operations [8][9][11]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index reached a one - and - a - half - month high. Large - vessel market freight rates are expected to be supported in the short term but lack strong upward momentum. Medium - vessel market transportation demand has certain support and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19][22]. - **Oil Tanker Transportation**: The oil transportation market shows obvious differentiation. The crude oil transportation market continues to rise, while the refined oil market is in a downward trend. Long - term attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection elimination and supply - demand reshaping on freight rates [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Market Data** - **Futures Disk**: On September 17, 2025, EC2510 closed at 1,109.7, down 60.0 or 5.13%. Different contracts showed different price and volume changes [5]. - **Container Freight Rates**: SCFIS European Line was at 1440.24 points, down 8.06% week - on - week and 62.24% year - on - year. Different routes had different freight rate changes [5]. - **Fuel Costs**: WTI crude oil near - month was at $64.17 per barrel, up 1.82% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was at $68.03 per barrel, up 1.51% year - on - year [5]. - **Market Analysis and Strategies** - **Analysis**: Spot freight rates are falling, and the impact of the closure of the Polish border on China - Europe freight trains continues. The freight rate center in the second half of September dropped to around 1400 - 1700 US dollars/FEU. The market is affected by factors such as demand, supply, and tariffs [8][9]. - **Strategies**: Single - sided trading is expected to be weakly oscillating. For the 10 - contract, short positions can be gradually reduced and profited before the National Day. For arbitrage, conduct 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage operations at low levels and enter 2 - 4 positive arbitrage at low levels [11][12]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Market Data** - **Freight Index**: On September 16, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose 0.05% to 2154 points. The Capesize vessel freight index rose 1.1% to 3189 points, while the Panamax vessel freight index fell 1.8% to 1968 points [18][19]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: Different routes of Capesize and Panamax vessels had different freight rate changes on September 16 and as of September 12 [18][20]. - **Shipping Data**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume increased. Brazilian grain exports in September are expected to increase [21]. - **Market Analysis and Outlook** - **Analysis**: The rise in Capesize vessel freight rates offset the decline of smaller vessels. The large - vessel market is supported by Australian end - of - season cargo releases, but the cargo volume is expected to decrease from mid - October. The medium - vessel market has certain transportation demand support, mainly in a fluctuating trend [22]. Oil Tanker Transportation - **Market Data** - **Freight Index**: On September 16, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was at 1137, up 0.8% week - on - week and 26.76% year - on - year; the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was at 609, up 0.66% week - on - week and down 4.55% year - on - year [28][29]. - **Average Earnings**: VLCC average earnings were $57,975 per day, up 58.71% week - on - week and 90.00% year - on - year; Suezmax average earnings were $45,871 per day, up 43.38% week - on - week and down 14.04% year - on - year [28]. - **Crude Oil Futures Prices**: WTI crude oil near - month was at $64.17 per barrel, up 1.82% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was at $68.03 per barrel, up 1.51% year - on - year [28]. - **Market Analysis and Outlook** - **Analysis**: The crude oil transportation market continues to rise, while the refined oil market is in a downward trend. The VLCC market is improving due to tight supply and slightly higher - than - expected cargo volume [29]. - **Industry News** - OPEC+ representatives will discuss updating member production capacity estimates in Vienna from September 18 - 19, aiming to determine new production baselines and 2027 production targets [30]. - On September 15, oil prices continued to rise due to supply interruption risks from Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and Trump's call for NATO to stop buying Russian oil [31].

Report Overview - The report is a peanut daily report dated September 17, 2025, provided by the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product R & D department [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the prices of domestic peanuts and imported peanuts have remained stable. Although the supply is still low and downstream demand is weak, peanut prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the short - term. Peanut oil and peanut meal prices are also stable, and oil mills' theoretical profit is acceptable. The 11 - contract peanuts are starting to strengthen and will experience short - term bottom - range fluctuations. It is expected that the output of the new peanut season will be similar to last year, and with the decrease in planting costs and the partial listing of new peanuts, the 11 - contract peanuts will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [5][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: PK604 closed at 7868, up 2 (0.03%), with a trading volume of 12 (up 33.33%) and an open interest of 438 (up 0.46%); PK510 closed at 7818, up 2 (0.03%), with a trading volume of 2,259 (down 56.49%) and an open interest of 10,545 (down 11.45%); PK601 closed at 7828, up 8 (0.10%), with a trading volume of 8,669 (down 54.73%) and an open interest of 46,165 (up 2.74%) [3] - **Spot Market**: In Henan Nanyang, peanuts were priced at 8600 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan/ton); in Shandong Jining and Linyi, they were 8400 yuan/ton (stable). The price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3350 yuan/ton (stable), Rizhao soybean meal was 2970 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), peanut oil was 14670 yuan/ton (stable), and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8560 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton). The import price of Sudanese peanuts was 8500 yuan/ton (stable) [3] - **Spread**: The PK01 - PK04 spread was - 40 (up 6); the PK04 - PK10 spread was 50 (stable); the PK10 - PK01 spread was - 10 (down 6) [3] 3.2 Market Analysis - In the Northeast, the price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4 yuan/jin (up 0.1 yuan/jin), and in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.1 yuan/jin (down 0.05 yuan/jin). In Henan, the price of Baisha common peanuts was 4.2 - 4.35 yuan/jin (down 0.1 yuan/jin), and in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin (stable). The price of imported Sudanese refined peanuts was 8150 yuan/ton, and Senegalese oil peanuts were 7600 - 7800 yuan/ton (stable). Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, with the pre - stop mainstream transaction price at 7300 - 7900 yuan/ton and the theoretical break - even price at 8050 yuan/ton. Domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil was priced at 14800 yuan/ton (stable), and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was 16500 yuan/ton (stable). Rizhao soybean meal was 2970 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), and the unit - protein spread between peanut meal and soybean meal was high, with peanut meal expected to be weak in the short - term [5][9] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: The 11 - contract peanuts are fluctuating at a low level. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. After stabilization, one can try to go long on the 05 - contract peanuts [12] - **Spread**: Wait and see [13] - **Options**: Hold the short position of pk511 - P - 7600 [14] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides six charts, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, peanut oil mill's profit, peanut oil price, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between the 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between the 1 - 4 contracts [16][22][25]

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 09 月 17 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 螺纹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货(元/吨) | | | | | | | | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | RB05 | 3237 | 3236 | 1 | HC05-RB05 | 162 | 174 | -12 | | RB10 | 3074 | 3069 | 5 | HC10-RB10 | 350 | 364 | -14 | | RB01 | 3168 | 3166 | 2 | HC01-RB01 | 222 | 236 | -14 | | RB01-RB05 | -69 | -70 | 1 | RB10-RB01 | - 04 | -97 | 3 | | RB05-RB10 | 163 | 167 | -4 | | | | | | 05合约螺纹盘面利润 | -85 | -90 | 5 | RB05/105 | 4.14 | 4.14 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 17, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3,787 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day, a 0.05% increase. The rise in crude oil and futures boosted market sentiment. In Shandong and North China, some projects rushed to meet deadlines, leading to smooth refinery shipments and some traders raising prices, driving up the average market price. In East China, supply was abundant with low - price shipping resources, and in South China, demand was general but prices were stable due to cost support [5]. - The weekly production remained high and demand increased month - on - month. Under the pattern of strong supply and demand, the industrial chain was stably driven. Refinery inventories were low and stable, while social inventories intended to actively reduce before the end of the year. Asphalt supply was still relatively loose, and with good refinery processing profits, asphalt valuation was relatively high. In the short term, oil prices would fluctuate widely, and the cost of asphalt lacked clear drivers. The single - side was expected to fluctuate, and the cracking spread would be dominated by oil price fluctuations in the short term and bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract was expected to be between 3,350 and 3,500 [7]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Relevant Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On September 17, the BU2511 (main contract) was 3,445 yuan, up 34 yuan or 1.00% from the previous day; BU2512 was 3,404 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.89%; BU2601 was 3,386 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.89%. SC2510 was 499.3 yuan, up 5.7 yuan or 1.15%, and Brent first - line was 67.89 US dollars, up 0.8 US dollars or 1.12%. The main contract position was 234,000 lots, down 0.1 lots or - 0.42%, and the main contract trading volume was 141,000 lots, down 21,000 lots or - 13.06%. The warehouse receipt quantity was 65,360 tons, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: BU12 - 01 was 18.00 yuan, unchanged; BU11 - 12 was 41.00 yuan, up 4.00 yuan or 10.81%. The Shandong - main contract basis was 246.00 yuan, down 30.00 yuan or - 10.87%; the East China - main contract basis was 116.00 yuan, down 30.00 yuan or - 20.55%; the South China - main contract basis was 86.00 yuan, down 30.00 yuan or - 25.86% [2]. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: Shandong market price was 3,520 yuan, unchanged; East China market price was 3,520 yuan, unchanged; South China market price was 3,490 yuan, unchanged. Shandong gasoline was 7,520 yuan, up 10.00 yuan or 0.13%; Shandong diesel was 6,485 yuan, up 24.00 yuan or 0.37%; Shandong petroleum coke was 2,920 yuan, unchanged. The diluted asphalt discount was - 6.5, unchanged, and the exchange rate mid - price was 7.1013, down 0.00 or - 0.02% [2]. - **Spread and Profit**: Asphalt refinery profit was - 59.08 yuan, down 27.60 yuan or - 87.71%; refined oil comprehensive profit was 339.88 yuan, down 21.20 yuan or - 5.87%; BU - SC cracking was - 632.50 yuan, down 15.06 yuan or - 2.44%; gasoline spot - Brent was 928.06 yuan, down 30.39 yuan or - 3.17%; diesel spot - Brent was 702.13 yuan, down 18.00 yuan or - 2.50% [2]. 2. Market Judgement - **Market Overview**: The domestic asphalt market average price increased slightly. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price rose 5 yuan to 3,640 - 3,750 yuan/ton. In the Yangtze River Delta, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,650 - 3,700 yuan/ton. In South China, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,480 - 3,530 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply and demand of asphalt were both strong, but the supply was relatively loose. In the short term, oil prices would fluctuate widely, and asphalt was expected to fluctuate on the single - side. The cracking spread would be bearish in the medium term, and the BU2511 contract was expected to operate between 3,350 and 3,500 [7]. 3. Relevant Attachments - The report provided several figures including the closing price and position of the BU main contract, and the market prices of asphalt, gasoline, and diesel in East China and Shandong [9].