M N 21 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Geely Automobile (175 HK) Most businesses are trending up Target Price HK$14.00 Maintain BUY. We are of the view that Geely’s FY23 earnings quality was better (Previous TP HK$14.00) than FY21-22. We believe most of its businesses are poised to enjoy higher Up/Downside 58.6% profits in FY24E. Some investors may overlook Geely’s recent assets disposal Current Price HK$8.83 to ease its lingering D&A burden by leveraging its par ...

M N 20 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Xiaomi (1810 HK) Raise TP and estimates on 4Q23 beat; All eyes on EV official launch on 28 March Target Price HK$20.25 Xiaomi’s 4Q23 revenue/net profit of 11%/236% YoY growth beat our/consensus (Previous TP HK$19.54) estimates, driven by stronger margins, improving mix and investment gains. Up/Downside 36.3% Looking ahead, mgmt. is positive on smartphone recovery, premiumization Current Price HK$14.86 strategy and EV busines ...

M N 21 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Li Ning (2331 HK) Expectations reset with positive initiatives Target Price HK$24.86 We do find Li Ning’s FY23 results and FY24E guidance are inline, even though the views from the market are quite mixed. Anyhow, we do appreciate (Previous TP HK$32.93) management’s efforts to fix the bugsell and the branding power issues, as well Up/Downside 15.9% as resetting investors’ expectation with a prudent guidance. With all the prog ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [1]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q4 2023, which boosted its annual results, with Q4 revenue and net profit accounting for 30% and 35% of the total annual performance, respectively [1]. - The PCB industry is believed to have reached the bottom of the cycle in the second half of 2023, with expectations for a moderate recovery in 2024, projecting a revenue growth of 12.5% for the company [1][2]. - Despite the anticipated recovery, concerns remain regarding the continuous decline in PCB product prices and weak demand in the telecommunications market, which may hinder a full recovery in the first half of 2024 [1]. - The target price has been adjusted to 79 RMB, based on a 27x P/E ratio for 2024, which is higher than the previous 25x but lower than the 5-year average of 32x [1][3]. Financial Summary - For FY23, the company reported a revenue of 13.526 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.398 billion RMB, down 14.8% year-on-year [2]. - The revenue for FY24 is projected to be 15.212 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 12.5% [2]. - The net profit for FY24 is expected to be 1.538 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 10% [2]. - The company’s gross margin for PCB and packaging substrates was 26.6% and 23.9% in 2023, respectively, with improvements noted in the second half of the year [2]. Business Segmentation - In 2023, the revenue from printed circuit boards (PCB) and packaging substrates was 8.1 billion RMB and 2.3 billion RMB, both down 8.5% year-on-year, while PCBA sales increased by 21.5% to 2.1 billion RMB [2]. - The second half of 2023 showed stronger performance compared to the first half, with significant growth in revenue driven by the recovery in automotive and energy sectors, although the telecommunications and data center sectors remained weak [2]. Market and Price Performance - The current stock price is 88.92 RMB, with a potential upside of 11.2% to the target price of 79 RMB [3]. - The company has a market capitalization of 45.607 billion RMB [4].

M N 2024 年 3 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 华润啤酒 (291 HK) 全年派息比例 59%，啤酒高端化趋势不变，白酒稳步发展 0 目标价 69.8港元 华润啤酒2023年下半年营收/净利，分别同比+6%/-7%，营收略低于市场预期而 (此前目标价 69.8港元) 利润超预期。2023年，公司成立30周年之际，给出特别分红将派息比例提升至 潜在升幅 83.7% 59%。同时，本轮业绩公布是金沙酒业并表后首个完整财年，管理层在业绩会 当前股价 38.0港元 上强调了未来对于啤、白双发展的全面发展壮大规划战略。对于啤酒业务，管 中国必选消费 理层表示，次高端及以上产品持续拉动公司整体营收及利润增长的同时，确认 了内地啤酒行业长期高端化增长逻辑。喜力和纯生的持续增长势头不变，2023 黄铭谦 年销量分别增长 60%+/10%+，预计两品牌 2024 年的销量将分别达到 75-80 万 (852) 3900 0838 吨和 100 万吨。对于白酒业务，金沙和摘要仍处于发展初期，尽管发展定位和 josephwong@cmbi.com.hk 战略不同，首要目标都是在短期维稳价格， ...

M N 19 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Xtep (1368 HK) Stay prudent as channel health is the priority Target Price HK$6.31 Xtep’s FY23 results were dragged by weak e-commerce sales but inline with market consensus. Due to the macro uncertainty and high base, Xtep’s (Previous TP HK$7.07) management has put aside its 5-year growth target and introduced a rather Up/Downside 39.0% conservative target in FY24E. This is inline with our view that Xtep may not be Current ...

M N 19 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update GigaCloud (GCT US) Riding on stepping-up of expansion Target Price US$43.0 GigaCloud (GCT) 4Q23 results beat already-high expectation, with revenue (Previous TP US$30.0) /earnings +95%/185% YoY (beating 9%/43%). Coupled with robust 1Q24E Up/Downside 25.7% guidance, we see high visibility for its strong performance in next few quarters, Current Price US$34.2 backed by continuous share gain and SKU& Sellers expansion. Leveragi ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company with a revised target price of HK$96.50, implying a 1.8x FY24E P/EV [18][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a full-year Value of New Business (VNB) growth of 33% year-on-year to US$4,034 million, with Annualized New Premium (ANP) increasing by 45% to US$7,650 million, aligning with forecasts [18]. - The VNB margin narrowed to 52.6%, but improved sequentially by 3.8 percentage points to 54.5% in the second half of 2023 [18]. - The company is expected to sustain mid-double digit VNB growth in the first quarter of 2024, driven by strong momentum in the MCV segment [18]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of US$3,781 million in FY23, with an EPS of US$0.33 [19]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 8.8% in FY23 to 15.0% in FY24E [19]. - The operating return on embedded value is expected to rise from 13.0% in FY23 to 14.2% in FY24E [15]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/Embedded Value of 1.3x for FY23, projected to decrease to 1.2x in FY24E [19]. - The dividend yield is expected to increase from 2.1% in FY23 to 2.9% in FY24E [19]. - The average risk discount rate for the group has been revised down from 10% to 9.5% [20]. Embedded Value and Growth Projections - The embedded value for FY23 is reported at US$67,447 million, with projections of US$71,790 million for FY24E [24]. - The long-term growth rate is set at 3.0%, with VNB growth expected to be 11.5% in FY24E [24]. - The company’s new business multiplier is projected to be 22.8x for FY24E [24]. Market and Economic Assumptions - The report highlights a trend of negative investment variances impacting profitability, alongside higher medical claims [18]. - The average long-term investment return is estimated at 8.6%, reflecting a prolonged low-interest-rate environment [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Weibo, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [2][13]. Core Insights - Weibo's total revenue for 4Q23 grew by 3% YoY to US$464 million, slightly above estimates, while FY23 revenue declined by 4% YoY to US$1.76 billion [2]. - Non-GAAP operating income for 4Q23 decreased by 4% YoY to US$146 million, but was 7% ahead of consensus due to stringent control over product development expenses [2]. - The company plans to increase investment in content and user acquisition to drive top-line growth in 2024, with expected revenue flat YoY at US$1.77 billion [2]. - The target price has been lowered to US$18.80 from US$23.50, reflecting a discount to peers' average valuation [2]. Revenue and Profitability - For FY24, total revenue is projected at US$1.77 billion, with adjusted net profit forecasted at US$451 million, down 16-19% from previous estimates [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to decline to 25.5% in FY24E, reflecting increased investments [2][11]. - Advertising revenue in 4Q23 grew by 3% YoY to US$404 million, with specific verticals like automobiles and online games showing strong performance [2]. User Engagement and Community Development - Monthly Active Users (MAUs) increased by 2% YoY to 598 million as of December 2023 [2]. - Weibo is focusing on enhancing user stickiness through investments in key content verticals and optimizing social products [2]. Shareholder Returns - Weibo announced a special cash dividend of US$0.82 per share, translating to an approximate 8% dividend yield, aimed at supporting valuation recovery [2].

M N 18 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Tuhu Car (9690 HK) Solid FY23 with better profitability Target Price HK$35.3 Tuhu Car (Tuhu) achieved decent profit for the first time in FY23, with revenue (Previous TP HK$50.10) +18% YoY (in line) and adj. NP at RMB481mn (27% above consensus). Looking Up/Downside 195.2% into FY24E, we are positive on its resilient growth (forecasting revenue + 16% Current Price HK$11.96 YoY), backed by workshop expansion, richer offerings, ...