2025 年 6 月 5 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 23,654 | 0.60 | 38.75 | | 恒生国企 | 8,577 | 0.67 | 48.68 | | 恒生科技 | 5,219 | 0.57 | 38.65 | | 上证综指 | 3,376 | 0.42 | 13.49 | | 深证综指 | 2,000 | 0.92 | 8.80 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,025 | 1.11 | 7.06 | | 美国道琼斯 | 42,428 | -0.22 | 12.57 | | 美国标普 500 | 5,971 | 0.01 | 25.18 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 19,460 | 0.32 | 29.64 | | 德国 DAX | 24,276 | 0.77 | 44.92 | | 法国 CA ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for CGN Mining, with a target price revised to HK$2.61 from HK$2.18, indicating a potential upside of 57.5% from the current price of HK$1.66 [1][3]. Core Insights - CGN Mining has introduced a new pricing mechanism for its off-take agreement with its parent company, reducing the fixed pricing proportion from 40% to 30%. The fixed price for 2026 is set at US$94.22/lb, significantly higher than the current price of US$61.78/lb for 2023, which is expected to increase by 3.5% annually [1][7]. - The new pricing is approximately 18% higher than the latest industry contract price published by Cameco, which is seen as a positive development that alleviates market concerns regarding pricing uncertainty [1]. - Following the adjustment in the pricing mechanism, the earnings forecast for 2026E and 2027E has been revised upwards by 17% and 23%, respectively [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show significant growth, with FY23A at HK$7,363 million, expected to rise to HK$12,371 million by FY27E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 101.8% in FY23A and 11.4% in FY27E [2][20]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to increase from HK$497.1 million in FY23A to HK$985.7 million in FY27E, with a notable growth of 71.2% in FY26E [2][20]. - The report indicates a P/E ratio decline from 25.4 in FY23A to 12.8 in FY27E, suggesting improved valuation metrics over the forecast period [2][20]. Share Performance - The market capitalization of CGN Mining is reported at HK$12,617.1 million, with a 52-week high of HK$2.94 and a low of HK$1.24 [3][4]. - The stock has shown a 1-month absolute performance of 11.4% and a 3-month performance of 16.1% [5]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation of CGN Mining is based on a Net Present Value (NPV) methodology, applying a target multiple of 3x NPV to reflect the potential conversion from resources to reserves amid rising uranium prices [18][19]. - Long-term assumptions include a 1.5% annual increase in uranium prices from US$91/lb during 2027-31, stabilizing at US$96 thereafter [18]. Shareholding Structure - The major shareholder is China General Nuclear Power Corporation, holding 56.9% of the shares, followed by China Chengtong Holding Group with 10.0% [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in their stock prices over the next 12 months [31]. Core Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 27.6% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 14.5% [2]. - The international competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs is being demonstrated through significant overseas licensing deals, reflecting a strong market presence [2]. - The report anticipates a valuation recovery in the pharmaceutical industry by 2025, driven by factors such as overseas licensing transactions, optimization of domestic procurement policies, and the implementation of new medical insurance categories [5]. Summary by Sections 1. **Industry Research - Medical Insurance Negotiations** - Continued support for innovation and recovery in overseas R&D demand [5]. 2. **Industry Research - Medical Equipment** - Expected recovery in bidding for medical devices and fruitful outcomes from innovative drug overseas transactions [5]. 3. **Industry Research - Medical Insurance Directory** - The results of adjustments to the medical insurance directory are expected to continuously support innovation [5]. 4. **Industry Research - Ongoing Policy Efforts** - Positive outlook for valuation rebound due to sustained policy support [5]. 5. **Industry Research - New Medical Insurance Categories** - The introduction of new medical insurance categories is expected to open up domestic payment space for innovative drugs [5]. 6. **Industry Research - Valuation Recovery** - The industry is poised for a valuation recovery, with several companies recommended for purchase [5]. 7. **Industry Research - Drug Pricing Policies** - Drug pricing policies are expected to be optimized, with accelerated commercialization of medical AI [5]. 8. **Industry Research - Anticipated Drug Procurement Policy Optimization** - Expectations for the implementation of an "innovative drug directory" [5]. 9. **Industry Research - 2024 Performance Review** - Innovative drugs are expected to dominate the market [5].

Company Analysis - NIO's 1Q25 performance fell short of expectations, with revenue 2% lower than predicted and a gross margin of 7.6%, which is 0.7 percentage points below forecast due to lower vehicle gross margins [2] - The operating loss for 1Q25 was 6.4 billion, which was 1 billion better than expected, primarily due to higher sales and management expenses [2] - The net loss for 1Q25 reached 6.9 billion, widening by 1.3 billion compared to expectations [2] - NIO's 4Q25 breakeven target appears overly optimistic, requiring sales of 150,000-160,000 units and a gross margin of 17%, which is deemed difficult to achieve [6] - Despite the launch of new models, the 2025 sales forecast has been reduced by 30,000 units to 350,000, implying a need for significant sales growth in the latter half of the year [6] - The projected net loss for 2025 is expected to be 16.2 billion [6] - For 2026, even with a sales target of 500,000 units, NIO is still projected to incur a net loss of 9.4 billion [7] Industry Insights - The Chinese stock market saw gains, particularly in healthcare, utilities, and materials sectors, while industrials and telecommunications lagged [5] - The US job openings data indicated economic resilience, boosting market confidence and leading to increases in US stocks, the dollar, and oil prices [5] - The Eurozone's May CPI growth rate fell to 1.9%, below the ECB's 2% target, supporting further rate cuts [5] - The new pricing mechanism for CGN Mining is significantly above market expectations, alleviating long-standing concerns about pricing uncertainty [8] - The new contract pricing for uranium has increased from $61.78 to $94.22 per pound, which is substantially higher than the current market contract price of $80 [8][9]

Investment Rating - Maintain HOLD rating for NIO Inc. with a target price of US$4.00, down from the previous target of US$5.00, indicating a potential upside of 13.3% from the current price of US$3.53 [4][9]. Core Views - NIO's management targets breakeven in 4Q25, but the assumptions are viewed as unrealistic due to heavy investments in battery swap and sales channels, which require significantly higher sales volumes to achieve breakeven [1][9]. - The FY25E sales volume forecast has been cut by 30,000 units to 350,000 units, implying a sales volume of 235,000 units in 2H25E, or an average monthly volume of about 40,000 units [2][9]. - NIO is projected to incur a net loss of RMB16.2 billion in FY25E, which is RMB0.2 billion higher than the prior forecast due to the reduction in sales volume [2][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB92,972 million, with a YoY growth of 41.4%, and gross margin expected to be 13.0% [3][11]. - The company is expected to continue facing operating losses, with projected operating profit of RMB(15,561.4) million in FY25E and net profit of RMB(16,241.9) million [3][11]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is projected at RMB(14,042.6) million, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability [3][11]. Earnings Summary - NIO's 1Q25 revenue was 2% lower than prior forecasts, with a gross profit margin of 7.6%, which is 0.7 percentage points lower than projected [9][10]. - The operating loss for 1Q25 was RMB6.4 billion, missing forecasts by RMB1.0 billion, primarily due to higher-than-expected SG&A expenses [9][10]. - Management's assumptions for achieving breakeven in 4Q25 include a sales volume of 150,000-160,000 units and a gross profit margin of 17%, which are considered overly optimistic [9][10]. Share Performance - NIO's market capitalization stands at approximately US$7.93 billion, with a 52-week high of US$7.21 and a low of US$3.14 [4][5]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 12.4% over the past month and 23.3% over the past six months [6][9]. Valuation - The target price revision reflects a lower price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 0.7x for FY25E revenue estimates, indicating a more conservative valuation approach compared to peers [9][10]. - NIO's profitability is considered worse than that of competitors like Li Auto and Xpeng, which justifies the lower P/S multiple [9][10].

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of China's innovative pharmaceuticals, particularly in international markets, with the MSCI China Healthcare Index rising 27.6% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 14.5% [2] - Significant overseas licensing deals for innovative drugs are being realized, showcasing the international competitiveness of Chinese pharmaceutical companies [6][7] - The report recommends several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, including BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and others, as potential investment opportunities due to favorable market conditions [7] Industry Analysis - The innovative drug sector is benefiting from overseas licensing transactions, optimization of domestic procurement policies, and the implementation of new medical insurance directories, which are expected to drive valuation recovery in the pharmaceutical industry by 2025 [7] - The report notes that the recent updates from companies like Innovent Biologics and 3SBio at the ASCO conference demonstrate their clinical advancements and potential market impact [2][5] - The report anticipates continued growth in the domestic insurance market, with a projected 12.7% year-on-year increase in total premiums for the first four months of the year, indicating strong growth potential for internet insurance companies [10] Company Insights - 3SBio's licensing agreement with Pfizer for its PD-1/VEGF drug is expected to yield $1.25 billion in upfront payments and up to $4.8 billion in milestone payments, reflecting the drug's best-in-class potential [6] - The report highlights the positive outlook for ZhongAn Online due to its involvement in the stablecoin regulatory framework in Hong Kong, which is expected to enhance its valuation [8][9] - The report projects that ZhongAn's insurance premium growth will be driven by health and automotive sectors, with an expected combined ratio improvement due to better underwriting practices [10]

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$58.78, reflecting a potential upside of 61.3% from the current price of HK$36.65 [3][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 10-15% YoY in 2025, driven by multiple growth drivers across various segments including optics, precision mechanics, electromagnetic drive, and automotive acoustics [1][9]. - Key growth drivers for 2025 include upgrades in optics specifications, increased adoption of VC in high-end models, expansion in automotive acoustics, and advancements in MEMS microphones for AI smartphones [9]. - The company has a solid product roadmap and is expanding into strategic markets such as robotics and AI glasses, with plans to acquire a stake in a Chinese automotive microphone module company to enhance its offerings [9]. Revenue and Earnings Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 20,419 million in FY23 to RMB 32,566 million in FY25, representing a YoY growth of 19.2% [2][11]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 740.4 million in FY23 to RMB 2,488.6 million in FY25, with a YoY growth of 38.5% [2][11]. - The company’s EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.63 in FY23 to RMB 2.12 in FY25, indicating a growth of 38.5% [2][11]. Segment Performance - The revenue breakdown indicates that acoustics will contribute RMB 9,466 million in FY25, while optics is expected to generate RMB 5,672 million [10]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve from 16.9% in FY23 to 23.1% in FY25, reflecting operational efficiency and product mix enhancement [11][18]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 15.8x for FY25, which is attractive compared to the expected EPS growth of 39% [12][18]. - The target price is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation methodology, assigning different P/E multiples to various business segments [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 69.5, indicating a potential upside of 22.4% from the current price of HKD 56.80 [1][3]. Core Insights - The recent EDA export ban by the Trump administration is expected to accelerate the domestic replacement process for EDA tools in China, which could benefit companies like the report's subject, as they possess self-developed EDA capabilities [1][9]. - The company is positioned as a key beneficiary of the semiconductor domestic replacement trend, with its independent EDA capabilities allowing it to maintain robust revenue growth and high profit margins amid increasing geopolitical risks [9]. Financial Summary - Sales revenue is projected to grow from RMB 464 million in FY23A to RMB 1,284 million by FY27E, with a CAGR of approximately 27.6% [2][14]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 109.2 million in FY23A to RMB 363.3 million in FY27E, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2][14]. - The company’s P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 21.5 in FY23A to 8.6 in FY27E, suggesting an attractive valuation compared to the industry average of 64.0 [2][9]. Market Position - The company has developed a comprehensive EDA platform that integrates EDA tools, IP libraries, and design processes, significantly lowering the barriers to chip design [9]. - As of the end of 2024, the company has integrated over 600 IP modules, establishing a complete tool-IP-design framework [9]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include CICCFT with 12.6% and Value Partners with 6.6% [5]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown strong performance with a 96.2% increase over the past three months [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 69.5, indicating a potential upside of 22.4% from the current price of HKD 56.80 [1][3]. Core Insights - The recent EDA export ban by the Trump administration is expected to accelerate the domestic replacement process in China's EDA market, which currently relies heavily on foreign suppliers [1][9]. - The company, 贝克微, is well-positioned to benefit from this trend due to its self-developed EDA platform, which mitigates the impact of export restrictions [9]. - The report highlights that 贝克微's vertical integration in the semiconductor design process provides a strategic advantage in a localized supply chain environment [9]. Financial Summary - Sales revenue is projected to grow from RMB 464 million in FY23A to RMB 1,284 million by FY27E, with a CAGR of approximately 27.6% [2][14]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 109.2 million in FY23A to RMB 363.3 million in FY27E, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2][14]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to remain stable around 53% over the next five years [2][14]. Market Position - 贝克微's market capitalization is approximately HKD 3.408 billion, with a current share price of HKD 56.80, which is significantly higher than its 52-week low of HKD 23.05 [4][3]. - The company has a strong shareholder structure, with CICCFT holding 12.6% and 惠理集团 holding 6.6% [5]. - The stock has shown impressive performance, with a 96.2% return over the past three months [6]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently valued at a P/E ratio of 14.4 for FY25E, which is attractive compared to the industry average of 64.0 [9][13]. - The PEG ratio stands at 0.48, indicating potential undervaluation relative to its growth prospects [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Microsoft (MSFT US) with a target price of $510.30, indicating a potential upside of 11.3% from the current price of $458.68 [3][4]. Core Insights - Microsoft aims to build an open AI agent network, transitioning from isolated AI models to interconnected agents with distinct identities, facilitated through Azure and Windows platforms [1][10]. - The report highlights three core trends from the Build 2025 conference: 1) collaboration among multiple models and agents, 2) cost-effective inference on the edge, and 3) unified identity governance and observability [1][10]. - Microsoft continues to strengthen its position in AI cloud services and applications, supported by its extensive developer and enterprise customer ecosystem [1][10]. Financial Overview - For FY23A, Microsoft reported sales revenue of $211,915 million, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%. Projections for FY24A and FY25E are $245,122 million and $283,148 million, reflecting growth rates of 15.7% and 15.5% respectively [9][27]. - Net profit for FY23A was $72,361 million, with a projected increase to $88,136 million in FY24A and $101,947 million in FY25E, indicating growth rates of 21.8% and 15.7% respectively [9][27]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY23A is $9.72, expected to rise to $11.86 in FY24A and $13.75 in FY25E [9][27]. Shareholder Structure - Vanguard holds 8.7% and BlackRock holds 7.2% of Microsoft’s shares, indicating significant institutional investment [5]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, Microsoft has achieved an absolute return of 16.0% and a relative return of 5.6% [6].