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固定收益部市场日报-20250729
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-29 07:50
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Asian IGs tightened by 1 - 3bps this morning, indicating a positive trend in the Asian investment - grade bond market [3] - Li & Fung's tender offer and new issue are beneficial to perp holders, and the company plans to reduce debt and adjust its balance sheet [7][8][9] - Zhongsheng's early redemption of ZHOSHK 3 01/13/26 reflects sufficient liquidity, and ZHOSHK 5.98 01/30/28 remains a good shorter - dated carry play [14] Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - In KR, LGENSO 26 - 35s tightened by 2 - 5bps; in Chinese IGs, BABA 31/MEITUA 30 tightened 1bp, ZHOSHK 26 - 28s were unchanged to 1bp tighter [1] - In financials, CSILTD priced a 3yr floating - rated bond at SOFR + 60; SUMIBK/STANLN Float 28 - 31s tightened 1 - 3bps [1] - In insurance, SHIKON 35 tightened 1bp, NSINTW 34 widened 1bp; ASAMLI Perps/MYLIFE 55s were up 0.1pt [1] - In AT1s, HSBC 6.95/LLOYDS 8/BACR 7.625 Perps were 0.2 - 0.4pt higher; in HK, BNKEA/DAHSIN/NANYAN 31 - 34s tightened 1 - 3bps [1] - In Chinese properties, DALWAN 26 was down 0.7pt; RAODKG 28 - 30s/Perps were 0.2pt lower to 0.3pt higher [1] - Outside properties, EHICAR 26 - 27s were 1.2 - 1.4pts higher; in SE Asia, GLPSP 28/Perps were 0.8 - 1.6pts higher [1] - VEDLN 28 - 33s were up 0.1 - 0.3pt; VLLPM 29 lowered 1.2pts; PTTEPT/PTTTB 42s were 0.6pt lower [1] - In CNH space, CCAMCL priced 3.5yr and 5yr CNH bonds at 2.35% and 2.43% respectively; onshore AAA guaranteed CNH LGFVs tightened 20 - 50bps [2] - BADNHI 6.9 28s/ZBZCHD 6.9 28s were 0.5 - 2.7pts higher; in SOE perps, CHPWCN Perp was up 0.1pt [4] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top performers included KAFEDI 6 1/2 06/04/28 with a price of 96.3 and a change of 2.7, GLPSP 4 1/2 PERP with a price of 55.3 and a change of 1.6 [5] - Top underperformers included TSIVMG 1.55 12/17/29 with a price of 70.4 and a change of - 1.2, VLLPM 9 3/8 07/29/29 with a price of 64.5 and a change of - 1.2 [5] Marco News Recap - On Monday, S&P was up 0.02%, Dow was down 0.14%, and Nasdaq was up 0.33%; long - term UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.91%/3.96%/4.42%/4.96% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - Li & Fung launched a tender offer for LIFUNG 5.25 Perp at USD55, with a maximum acceptance amount of USD50mn, funded by a new 3.5NC2 USD bond [7] - The FV of the new LIFUNG 29 is expected to be mid - 8% vs IPT at 9% [7] - The tender offer is seen as a de facto voluntary partial exchange beneficial to perp holders [8] - With new issuance proceeds and cash on hand, Li & Fung plans to redeem bonds, repay loans, and adjust its balance sheet [9] - Zhongsheng announced to make - whole ZHOSHK 3 01/13/26 on 27 Aug'25, reflecting sufficient liquidity [14] - ZHOSHK 5.98 01/30/28 is considered a good shorter - dated carry play, and a buy recommendation is maintained [14] Offshore Asia New Issues - No offshore Asia new issues were priced today; in the pipeline, Chengdu Xisheng Investment Group plans a 3yr issue, China CITIC Bank London Branch plans a 3yr issue of up to USD300mn, and Li & Fung plans a 3.5NC2 issue [18] News and Market Color - 84 credit bonds were issued yesterday onshore with an amount of RMB92bn; month - to - date, 1,881 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB2,024bn, a 15.2% yoy increase [21] - Adani Green Energy 1Q26 total revenue rose 36% yoy to INR38bn (cUSD439.2mn) [21] - Diamond Power won an INR13.5bn (cUSD155.6mn) order from Adani Energy Solutions [21] - China Cinda AMC issued 3.5y CNH3bn bonds at 2.35% and 5yr CNH2.3bn bonds at 2.43% [21] - Lippo Cikarang's 1H25 presales reached 48% of FY25 target [21] - SJM Holdings agreed to buy a property in Zhuhai for RMB724.2mn (cUSD101.1mn) [21]
每日投资策略-20250729
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-29 02:25
Global Market Overview - The Chinese stock market is experiencing an upward trend, with innovative pharmaceuticals leading the charge. Heng Rui Pharmaceutical has secured a $500 million upfront payment and potential orders worth $12 billion from foreign pharmaceutical companies [2] - Strong performance in computing hardware stocks, particularly in CPO and PCB sectors. Insurance stocks are also performing well, with Xinhua Insurance reaching a historical high [2] - Macau's satellite casinos are set to cease operations by the end of the year, with two being acquired by Aobo Holdings, signaling a shift in the gaming industry [2] - Recent trading restrictions have led to significant declines in coking coal and other cyclical stocks, while the yield on RMB government bonds has decreased slightly [2] Economic Policies and Impacts - The Chinese government is implementing economic rebalancing policies, including annual childcare subsidies of 3,600 yuan for children aged 0-3, which will cost approximately 100 billion yuan. Additionally, free preschool education will be gradually introduced, costing around 400 billion yuan [2] - These policies are expected to boost household consumption by approximately 0.6% and nominal GDP by about 0.25% [2] - The market regulatory authority is taking steps to address low-quality competition among enterprises and enhance safety regulations for food, pharmaceuticals, and industrial products [2] International Market Trends - European stock markets have declined, although the semiconductor sector has seen gains. A trade agreement between the US and Europe has been reached, but investors perceive it as more beneficial to the US [2] - In the US, stock performance is mixed, with energy, information technology, and consumer discretionary sectors rising, while real estate, materials, and utilities are down. Nvidia shares have rebounded nearly 2%, contributing to new highs for the stock index [2] - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies such as Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, focusing on future profit guidance and AI capital expenditure [2] Market Indicators - US Treasury yields have slightly increased, and the dollar index has surged. Oil prices have rebounded to a two-week high amid threats of sanctions against Russia by Trump [2] - Gold prices have experienced a pullback [2]
固定收益部市场日报-20250728
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-28 07:07
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Asia IGs tightened 1 - 3bps this morning, and the credit profile of Vedanta Resources (VRL) continues to improve, with the recommendation to buy VEDLN 10.875 09/17/29 and change the recommendation on VEDLN 9.475 07/24/30 from neutral to buy [3][7][8] - Onshore primary issuances showed a 15% yoy increase in the amount of credit bonds issued month - to - date [17] Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - In KR, LGENSO 26 - 35s tightened 1 - 4bps, and its 2Q25 operating profit rose 31% qoq from 1Q25; HYUELE 26 - 33s were unchanged [1] - In insurance, CATLIF 34/39 tightened 1 - 2bps; MYLIFE/NIPLIF 54s and ASAMLI Perps were up 0.1 - 0.3pt [1] - In JP, NSANY 26 - 30s were unchanged to 1.0pt higher [1] - In HK, NWDEVL Perps/27 - 31s were unchanged to 0.4pt higher; HYSAN Perps were 0.4 - 0.8pt higher; LASUDE 26 rose 0.7pt; LIFUNG Perp lowered 0.8pt, closed 2.8pts higher WoW [1] - In Chinese properties, DALWAN 26 was up 0.8pt; ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.2 - 1.3pts lower, closed 3.8 - 5.6pts lower WoW; ROADKG Perps were 0.1pt higher, closed unchanged to 0.1pt lower WoW [1] - Outside properties, EHICAR 26 - 27s were up 0.4 - 0.9pt; WESCHI 26 was up 0.3pt, closed 4.1pts higher WoW; FOSUNI 25 - 27s lowered 0.1 - 0.5pt [1] - In SE Asia, GLPSP Perps/28 were up 0.4 - 1.7pts, closed 1.2 - 2.5pts higher WoW; VLLPM 29 was up 0.8pt; VEDLN 28 - 33s were unchanged to 0.1pt higher [1] - In CNH space, the new CNH TEMASE 30/35/55 and CNH CHMEDA 30/35 were unchanged to 0.1pt lower [2] - In LGFVs, BINHCO priced 3yr bond at par to yield 4.95% (IPT at 5.8% area); DAZAKI priced 3yr bond at par to yield 7% (IPT at 7% area); SCDFGU priced 3yr bond at par to yield 6.8% (IPT at 6.8% area) [2] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top Performers: GLPSP 4.6 PERP rose 1.7pts to 51.2; GLPSP 4 1/2 PERP rose 1.4pts to 53.8; TSIVMG 1.55 12/17/29 rose 1.4pts to 71.5; NSANY 4.81 09/17/30 rose 1.0pts to 92.5; NSANY 7 3/4 07/17/32 rose 1.0pts to 102.4 [5] - Top Underperformers: ROADKG 5 1/8 01/26/30 dropped 1.3pts to 21.3; LIFUNG 5 1/4 PERP dropped 0.8pts to 50.7; ROADKG 5.2 07/12/29 dropped 0.7pts to 23.0; ROADKG 5.9 09/05/28 dropped 0.6pts to 24.3; FOSUNI 5.95 10/19/25 dropped 0.5pts to 100.0 [5] Macro News Recap - S&P (+0.40%), Dow (+0.47%) and Nasdaq (+0.24%) were higher on last Friday [6] - The EU reached a tariff deal with the US, facing 15% tariffs on most of its exports [6] - The US Jun'25 Durable Goods Orders was - 9.3% mom, compared to the market expectation of - 10.4% [6] - UST yield was lower on last Friday, with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.91%/3.95%/4.40%/4.92% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - Vedanta Resources will prepay the remaining USD550mn of its PCF in Aug'25, funded by bank facilities with lower interest costs [7] - VRL may consider a buyback of its USD bonds after PCF refinancing and demerger [7] - The credit profile of VRL continues to improve, with lengthened debt maturity and lowered funding costs [8] - The performance of VEDLNs may be supported by potential early redemptions [8] Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced: Dazhou Kaisheng Construction issued 70mn USD 3 - yr bond at 7.0% yield; Sichuan Zigong Huidong Development issued 69.5mn USD 3 - yr bond at 6.8% yield; Tianjin Binhai New Area Construction & Investment Group issued 244mn USD 3 - yr bond at 4.95% yield [12] - Pipeline: No offshore Asia new issues pipeline today [13] News and Market Color - Regarding onshore primary issuances, 77 credit bonds were issued last Friday with an amount of RMB84bn; month - to - date, 1,797 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,930bn, a 15% yoy increase [17] - Macau visitors climbed 15% yoy in 1H25 with a jump in same - day travelers [17] - Alibaba halves prices of cutting - edge AI model and a senior executive is accused of taking USD5.6mn in bribes [17] - First Pacific's Philippine power arm expects higher FY25 earnings [17] - Fantasia further delays offshore debt restructuring closing to 1 Aug'25 [17] - Li & Fung gives tender priority to bondholders who also subscribe to new bonds [17] - China Vanke sells a project for RMB1.4bn (cUSD195mn) [17]
招银国际每日投资策略-20250728
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-28 03:18
Company Analysis - Sanofi has entered a global licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody 707, which includes an upfront payment of $1.25 billion, potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion, and a double-digit sales revenue share [2] - Pfizer will subscribe to 31,142,500 shares of Sanofi at HKD 25.2 per share, totaling approximately HKD 785 million (around $100 million) [2] - The agreement grants Pfizer an option for rights in China, which could yield an additional $150 million if exercised [2] Clinical Development Insights - The 707 antibody is noted for its differentiated structure, which may provide advantages in efficacy and safety compared to similar PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies [5] - Pfizer's management expressed confidence in the clinical data for 707, indicating its potential as a foundational treatment option for multiple indications [5][6] - The Phase II clinical data presented at ASCO showed a 64.7% confirmed overall response rate (cORR) in patients with PD-L1+ NSCLC [5] Market Outlook - Pfizer plans to accelerate the global Phase III clinical development of 707, exploring its use as a monotherapy and in combination with chemotherapy and ADCs [6] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sanofi with a target price of HKD 37.67, reflecting an upward adjustment in sales expectations due to Pfizer's rapid development plans [6] Other Company Insights - Thermo Fisher Scientific reported a 3.0% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, with adjusted EPS declining by 0.2% [7] - The company has raised its full-year guidance, expecting revenue growth between 1.7% and 3.1% [7][8] - Zhejiang Dingli's Q2 2025 net profit increased by 19% year-over-year, primarily driven by foreign exchange gains [8]
固定收益部市场日报-20250725
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-25 06:38
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - Maintain a buy recommendation for HYUELEs due to SK Hynix's resilience against trade - wars, strong global market position, solid operating cash flow, and a more balanced risk - return profile [2][6] - Expect SK Hynix's revenue and operating profit growth momentum to continue in 2025, supported by strong demand for memory used in AI services [11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - In Chinese IGs, TENCNT 30/BABA 31 tightened 1bp, MEITUA 30 widened 1bp, ZHOSHK 28 tightened 5bps [1] - In financials, CMINLE/CSILTD/BCLMHK Float 27 - 30s were unchanged to 2bps tighter, SUMIBK/MIZUHO 30 - 31s were 1 - 2bps tighter, BBLTB 36 - 40s closed 1 - 3bps tighter [1] - In insurance, CATLIF 34 tightened 1bp, NSINTW 34 widened 1bp, MYLIFE/NIPLIF 55s were up 0.1pt [1] - In AT1s, BNP 7.75/HSBC 6.95 Perps were up 0.2 - 0.4pt, EFGBNK 5.5/INTNED 4.25 Perps were up 0.4 - 0.6pt [1] - In HK, DAHSIN/BNKEA 32 - 34s were 1 - 2bps tighter, REGH 6.5 Perp/HYSAN 4.1 Perp/LASUDE 26 lowered 0.5 - 0.9pt [1] - In Chinese properties, ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.2 - 2.3pts lower, ROADKG Perps were unchanged. Road King launched a holder identification for all of its three perps [1] - Outside properties, WESCHI 26 was 1.7pts higher following 1H25 positive profit alert, FOSUNI 25 - 28s were up 0.1 - 0.5pt after Fosun announced early redemption [1] - In SEA, GLPSP Perps were up 0.4 - 0.5pt, VLLPM 29 was down 0.7pt [1] - In CNH space, new CNH TEMASE 1.85 30/TEMASE 2.05 35 were 0.1 - 0.2pt lower, TEMASE 2.55 55 was 0.3pt higher; new CNH CHMEDA 2 30/CHMEDA 2.3 35 were 0.2 - 0.3pt lower [2] - LGENSO 27 - 35s tightened 1 - 3bps following a 31% qoq rise in 2Q25 operating profit from 1Q25 [2] - HYUELE 1 ½ 01/19/26 and HYUELE 2 ⅜ 01/19/31 were 2 - 5bps tighter post - results announcement, while HYUELE 6 ¼ 01/17/26 and HYUELE 6 ⅜ 01/17/28 were 2 - 5bps wider [2] - ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.2 - 2.3pts lower yesterday and unchanged this morning. Road King and CVC seek full exit from Indonesian toll road business for USD1bn [2] - In SOE perps, CHPWCN Perp was up 0.1pt, SPICPD Perp was down 0.1pt [3] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top Performers: WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 price was 92.3 with a change of 1.7; GRNLGR 5 7/8 07/03/30 price was 23.2 with a change of 1.3; NSANY 7 3/4 07/17/32 price was 101.4 with a change of 0.7; NSANY 4.81 09/17/30 price was 91.4 with a change of 0.6; EFGBNK 5 1/2 PERP price was 97.2 with a change of 0.6 [4] - Top Underperformers: ROADKG 5.9 09/05/28 price was 24.8 with a change of - 2.3; ROADKG 5.2 07/12/29 price was 23.7 with a change of - 2.3; ROADKG 6.7 03/30/28 price was 25.1 with a change of - 1.4; ROADKG 6 03/04/29 price was 24.6 with a change of - 1.2; REGH 6 1/2 PERP price was 21.7 with a change of - 0.9 [4] Macro News Recap - On Thursday, S&P was up 0.07%, Dow was down 0.70%, and Nasdaq was up 0.18%. US Jul'25 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (lower than the market expectation of 52.7), and US Jul'25 S&P Global Services PMI was 55.2 (higher than the market expectation of 53.0) [5] - Trump and Powell clashed at Fed headquarters. UST yield was higher on Thursday, with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.91%/3.98%/4.43%/4.96% [5] Desk Analyst Comments - Maintain a buy recommendation for HYUELEs. Prefer HYUELE 1 ½ 01/19/26 and HYUELE 2 ⅜ 01/19/31 for lower cash prices. They were traded at YTM of 4.7%/Z + 34bps and YTM of 4.8%/Z + 117bps respectively, and provide 6 - 30bps yield pick - up over Micron's bonds [6] SK Hynix Business and Financial Analysis - SK Hynix achieved record - high revenue and operating profit in 2Q25, driven by aggressive AI investments from leading tech companies and customers accelerating inventory purchases ahead of tariff policy changes [9] - DRAM bit shipments rose by mid - 20% qoq, ASP increased by a low - single digit qoq. NAND bit shipments surged 70% qoq, but ASP declined by a high single - digit qoq [10] - SK Hynix expects DRAM bit shipments to grow by low - to - mid single digit in 3Q25, and increase in NAND bit shipments to be limited. It shipped the industry's first HBM4 samples in Mar'25 and is optimizing performance with partners [11] - As of Jun'25, cash balance increased by 19% qoq to KRW17.0tn. Capex is expected to be higher than the original plan, especially for HBM - related equipment. M15X fab will open in 4Q25 and start full - scale DRAM production in 2026. Yong - in fab (Phase 1) is on track for completion in 2Q27 [12] - SK Hynix's leverage was lower as of Jun'25. Net debts decreased by 46% qoq to KRW4.9tn. Upcoming USD bond maturities are HYUELE Float 11/17/25 of USD300mn due in Nov'25 and two USD bonds totaling USD1.75bn due Jan'26. It is expected to refinance at reasonable costs [13] Offshore Asia New Issues - No new offshore Asia issues were priced today - Pipeline issues include Dazhou Kaisheng Construction Development Group (USD, 3yr, 7.0%, Unrated), Sichuan Zigong Huidong Development (USD, 3yr, 6.8%, Unrated), and Tianjin Binhai New Area Construction & Investment Group (USD, 3yr, 5.8%, Baa2/ - / - ) [17] News and Market Color - 134 credit bonds were issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB137bn. Month - to - date, 1,722 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,842bn, a 15.8% yoy increase [18] - Adani Enterprises and MetTube partner to build copper tube ecosystem; Adani Energy 1Q26 total EBITDA rises 14.5% yoy to INR20.17bn (cUSD233.5mn) [18] - China Energy Reserve and Chemicals Group adjourns meetings for six bonds due to lack of quorum; Country Garden agrees to key terms with key bank creditors on offshore restructuring [18] - Fosun unit looks to issue RMB1bn yulan bonds by mid - Aug'25; Danantara looks to buy Jiangsu Delong smelter unit in Indonesia through MIND ID [18] - JD.com in advanced talks to buy German retailer Ceconomy for EUR2.2bn (cUSD2.6bn); Mongolian Mining 2Q25 washed coking coal sales drop 25% yoy to 1.74mn tons [18] - Samsung Heavy Industries 1H25 sales rise 6% yoy to KRW5.18tn (cUSD3.76bn); Sands China eyes USD2.7bn annual EBITDA run rate [18] - Sinopec 1H25 oil and gas production rises 2% yoy to 262.81mn barrels of oil equivalent; SoftBank - backed tech startup InMobi plans India IPO at up to USD6bn valuation [18]
每日投资策略-20250725
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-25 02:20
Group 1: 中广核矿业 (CGN Mining) - 中广核矿业预计在2025年上半年将录得约6800万元人民币的净亏损,主要由于国际铀贸易业务的一次性负毛利率和铀现货价格下跌的影响 [1] - 2025年盈利预测已下调47%至2.6亿元人民币,以反映上半年的潜在疲弱业绩 [1] - 尽管短期内面临挑战,但预计下半年将出现复苏,2026年将实现强劲增长,尤其是新定价机制将推动盈利增长 [1] Group 2: 谷歌 (Google) - 谷歌公布2025年第二季度业绩,总收入同比增长14%至964亿美元,净利润同比增长19%至282亿美元,均高于市场预期 [2] - 预计2025年下半年广告收入将面临高基数影响,但谷歌云收入增长预计将保持强劲,资本支出指引上调至850亿美元 [2] - 基于强劲的云业务增长前景,目标价上调至221.0美元 [2] Group 3: ServiceNow - ServiceNow公布2025年第二季度业绩,总营收同比增长22.5%至32.2亿美元,非GAAP运营利润同比增长33%至9.55亿美元,均高于市场预期 [2] - cRPO在固定汇率下同比增长21.5%,超出公司指引200个基点 [2] - 基于强劲的盈利前景和行业估值提升,目标价上调至1,175美元 [2]
固定收益部市场日报-20250724
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-24 07:25
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a daily update on the fixed - income market, including bond price changes, new issuances, and macro - news. It also analyzes the profit situation of WESCHI and gives investment suggestions [1][7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, GUOTJU priced a 3 - year floating - rated bond at SOFR + 60 (IPT at SOFR + 115). In KR, spreads of DAESEC/SHINFN/NACF 26 - 30s widened by 1 - 2bps. HYNMTR Float 30 tightened 8bps, and HYNMTR 5.3 29/HYNMTR 3.5 31 tightened 2 - 4bps [1]. - In Chinese IGs, BABA/HAOHUA 28 - 35s were unchanged to 1bps tighter, while MEITUA 30 widened 2bps. In financials, BBLTB/KBANK 31 - 40s tightened 2 - 4bps, and NANYAN/BNKEA 30 - 34s tightened 2 - 3bps [1]. - In insurance, SHIKON/CATLIF 34 - 35s were unchanged to 1bp tighter. MYLIFE/NIPLIF 54 - 55s and SUMILF/FUKOKU Perps were up 0.1 - 0.3pt. In AT1s, NWG 7.3/BNP 7.375/HSBC 6.95 Perps were up 0.2 - 0.8pt [1]. - In HK, AIA/CKHH 30 - 35s tightened 1 - 2bps under buying from PBs. LIFUNG 5.25 Perp was 3.1pts higher, and LIFUNG 5.25 08/18/25 was up 0.1pt. Li & Fung launched a tender offer for LIFUNG 5.25 Perp up to USD50mn at USD55 and mandated a 3.5 - year USD bond issuance [1]. - HYSAN/FAEACO Perps were up 0.2 - 0.5pt. LASUDE 26 was up 0.7pt. Media reported Lai Sun Development has been working on a HKD3.5bn 5 - year loan refinancing deal. NWDEVL 27 - 31s/Perps were unchanged to 0.4pt lower [1]. - In Chinese properties, ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.5 - 3.6pts lower, and ROADKG Perps were unchanged to 0.2pt lower. Outside properties, WESCHI 26 was up 0.2pt. FOSUNI 25 - 28s were up 0.3 - 0.5pt. MONMIN 30 was up 0.7pt, closed 2.6pts higher WTD [1]. New Issuances - TEMASE priced 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year CNH bonds at par to yield 1.85%, 2.05%, and 2.55% (IPT at 2.3%, 2.55%, and 3.05%) respectively [2]. - CHMEDA priced 5 - year and 10 - year CNH bonds at par to yield 2% and 2.3% (IPT at 2.55% and 2.85% area) respectively [4]. - Jiaozuo State - owned Capital Operation (Holding) Group issued a 150 - million 3 - year bond at a 6.5% coupon rate, unrated [12]. Morning Updates - This morning, the new CNH TEMASE 1.85 30/TEMASE 2.05 35 were 0.1 - 0.2pt lower, while TEMASE 2.55 55 was 0.5pt higher from ROs at par. The new CNH CHMEDA 2 30/CHMEDA 2.3 35 were unchanged to 0.1pt lower. VLLPM 29 was up 0.5pt [3]. - WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 was up 1.0pt this morning post - positive profit alert. HYUELEs were unchanged this morning as SK Hynix 2Q25 EBITDA rose 47% yoy to KRW12.7tn (cUSD9.1bn) [3]. Macro News Recap - On Wednesday, S&P (+0.78%), Dow (+1.14%), and Nasdaq (+0.61%) were higher. Trump said countries will face tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% ahead of an 1 Aug '25 deadline. The US may impose a 15% tariff on EU goods. UST yield was higher on Wednesday, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.88%/3.94%/4.40%/4.95% [7]. Desk Analyst Comments - West China Cement (WESCHI) expects the profit attributable to owners to increase 80 - 100% yoy to RMB696 - 774mn in 1H25, driven by overseas cement revenue, mainland China cement sales, property sales profit, and reversal of impairment losses [8]. - WESCHI plans to use proceeds from non - core asset sales to partly repay its WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 due in Jul '26. The company also plans to sell other assets and offshore projects for bond repayment [9]. - Despite potential recovery in the Chinese cement market, caution remains regarding WESCHI's ability to remit cash from African operations. The full and timely repayment of the bond is uncertain. The report maintains a neutral rating on WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 and prefers BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 and EHICARs in the China HY space [10]. News and Market Color - Regarding onshore primary issuances, 123 credit bonds were issued yesterday with an amount of RMB119bn. Month - to - date, 1,592 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,699bn, a 16.6% yoy increase [14]. - Adani Ports is in the race to set up a logistics park in north India. San Miguel buys a 3.8% stake in First Pacific - owned Meralco for PHP3.9bn (cUSD68.4mn) [14]. - Fosun will early redeem USD178.857mn FOSUNI 5.95 10/19/25 at 101 on 22 Aug '25. China Hongqiao seeks a USD300mn - equivalent three - year loan [14]. - JD.com will create a virtual restaurant chain. Media reported Lai Sun Development has been seeking an HKD3.5bn loan refinancing deal, but about half of the lenders have yet to commit [14]. - Li & Fung says no covenant restriction on perp refi, and the final plan depends on EBITDA. Rakuten sells JPY bonds for JPY30bn (cUSD204mn) for 5G projects [14]. - Sands China 2Q25 adjusted property EBITDA climbs 0.9% yoy to USD566mn. Viceroy alleges Vedanta's promoters siphon margins from Hindustan Zinc [14]. Top Performers and Underperformers | Top Performers | Price | Change | Top Underperformers | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LIFUNG 5 1/4 PERP | 51.4 | 3.1 | ROADKG 5 1/8 01/26/30 | 22.8 | - 3.6 | | NSANY 5 1/4 07/17/29 | 100.9 | 1.1 | ROADKG 6.7 03/30/28 | 26.5 | - 1.7 | | NWG 7.3 PERP | 102.3 | 0.8 | ROADKG 6 03/04/29 | 25.8 | - 1.7 | | MONMIN 8.44 04/03/30 | 97.4 | 0.7 | GRNLGR 5 7/8 07/03/30 | 21.9 | - 0.9 | | LASUDE 5 07/28/26 | 52.0 | 0.7 | ROADKG 5.2 07/12/29 | 25.9 | - 0.6 | [5]
招银国际每日投资策略-20250724
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-24 02:15
Company Analysis - Bilibili (BILI US) is expected to achieve a total revenue of RMB 7.38 billion in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 5% [2] - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase by 36% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 493 million, aligning with consensus expectations [2] - The strong performance in advertising and mobile gaming is supported by a well-established commercial infrastructure, contributing to the improvement in profit margins [2] - The FY25 total revenue forecast has been slightly adjusted downwards by 1% due to a more conservative outlook for value-added services in the second half of 2025, considering intense industry competition [2] - Despite the downward adjustment, the company’s profit growth outlook remains positive due to enhanced commercialization capabilities and operational leverage [2] - The target price for Bilibili has been raised to USD 28.8 from USD 26.5, maintaining a "Buy" rating [2] Market Overview - Global market sentiment has improved due to agreements between the US and Japan, and nearing agreements between the US and Europe, which has positively impacted Hong Kong stocks [3] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a continuation of upward trends, led by sectors such as information technology, consumer discretionary, and financials, while industrials and utilities declined [3] - A shift in capital from new consumption to the internet sector was noted, with southbound funds recording a net sell of HKD 1.32 billion [3] - In the A-share market, there was a pullback after reaching highs, with declines in sectors like building materials, defense, and machinery, while non-bank financials, beauty care, and home appliances saw gains [3] - Investors are closely monitoring the progress of China's anti-involution policies, with expectations that this round of capacity reduction may affect a broader range of industries, including steel, coal, building materials, photovoltaic, new energy equipment, lithium batteries, and pig farming [3]
固定收益部市场日报-20250723
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-23 07:33
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily update on the fixed - income market, including price changes of various bonds, new issue mandates, and macro - news. It also analyzes the proposed bond issuance of China Mengniu Dairy [1][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Chinese IGs like BABA/JD/SINOPE 48 - 57s were 0.5 - 1.9pts higher (1 - 15bps tighter). HSBC/STANLN Float 30 - 31s in financials closed 2 - 3bps tighter. SHIKON/NSINTW/CATLIF 33 - 35s in insurance widened 1 - 5bps. S&P assigned Fubon Life A - rating with stable outlook. NIPLIF/MYLIFE 55s and FUKOKU Perp were up 0.1pt. SOCGEN 6.75/LLOYDS 6.413 Perps in AT1s were 0.3 - 0.6pt lower, while INTNED 3.875/HSBC 7.05 Perp were up 0.1 - 0.2pt. BNKEA/NANYAN 34s in HK were unchanged to 2bps wider. HYSAN 7.2 Perp was up 0.5pt, NWDEVL Perps were 0.2 - 0.7pt lower. GRNCH 28/CHIOLI 42 - 43s in Chinese properties were 0.4 - 0.6pt higher, ROADKG 28 - 30s/Perps were unchanged to 0.7pt lower. WESCHI 26/HONGQI 28 were 0.7 - 1.0pt higher. VEDLN 28 - 33s in SE Asia were up 0.2 - 0.5pt, and MONMIN 30 was up 0.8pt [1]. - In CNH space, CHMEDA announced new issue mandates for 5yr and 10yr CNH bonds. Higher - yielding CNH LGFVs like LYGYIH 7.5 27s/SDGAOC 6.9 27s were sought after, and onshore AAA - guaranteed CNH LGFVs like QINLID 5.9 28s/HSIVEH 6.5 28s continued to compress. HAOHUA 28 - 30s tightened 1 - 2bps, MEITUA 30 widened 3bps, DAESEC 27 - 29s widened 1 - 2bps, and LASUDE 26 was up 0.5pt [2][3]. - LIFUNG announced a new issue mandate for a 3.5yr USD bond, and launched a tender offer for LIFUNG 5.25 Perp up to USD50mn at USD55. Pricing of new bonds is expected on 28 Jul'25, and the tender - offer expiration date is on 31 Jul'25. LIFUNG 5.25 Perp was unchanged [3]. - In USD LGFVs, CPDEV 28 was up 0.1pt. Higher - yielding USD names like HBTUID 7.5 26s/XHCTID 7 27s/FZSZJJ 7 28s tightened around 10bps. In SOE perps, CHPWCN Perp was up 0.1pt, SPICPD Perp was down 0.1pt [4]. Last Trading Day's Top Movers | Top Performers | Price | Change | Top Underperformers | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | JD 4 1/8 01/14/50 | 79.7 | 1.9 | ROADKG 5.9 09/05/28 | 27.5 | - 0.7 | | TSIVMG 1.55 12/17/29 | 71.0 | 1.2 | NWDEVL 10.131 PERP | 35.0 | - 0.7 | | WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 | 90.4 | 1.0 | SOCGEN 6 3/4 PERP | 98.6 | - 0.6 | | MONMIN 8.44 04/03/30 | 96.7 | 0.8 | ROADKG 6.7 03/30/28 | 28.3 | - 0.6 | | HONGQI 7.05 01/10/28 | 102.8 | 0.7 | ROADKG 6 03/04/29 | 27.5 | - 0.5 | [5] Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, S&P was up 0.06%, Dow was up 0.40%, and Nasdaq was down 0.39%. Trump reached a deal with Japan to set the tariff rate at 15%. US Treasury Secretary will meet China next week to discuss an extension of the 12 Aug'25 tariff deadline on Chinese imports. UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.83%/3.88%/4.35%/4.90% [7]. Desk Analyst Comments - China Mengniu Dairy proposes to issue 5yr and 10yr CNH senior bonds (S&P: BBB+). Considering peers' bonds and adjusting for new - issue premium and credit - rating differential, the FV of new CNH CHMEDA 30 is estimated to be 2.25% vs. IPT of 2.55%, and the FV of new CNH CHMEDA 35 is estimated to be 2.55% vs. IPT of 2.85%. Proceeds will be used for debt refinancing [8]. Mengniu Analysis - Mengniu is a leading Chinese dairy company, ranked in the top 10 globally. It has end - to - end capabilities across the value chain and a traceable digital platform. In FY24, it generated RMB88.7bn revenue, with liquid milk accounting for 82.4%. Gross profit margin rose to 39.6% in FY24, and operating margin improved to 8.2% [11]. - As of Dec'24, Mengniu had a cash balance of RMB32.9bn, total debt of RMB34.6bn (mainly bank loans), and cRMB86bn available credit lines with RMB66.4bn undrawn. Total debt/EBITDA and net debt/EBITDA were 8.0x and 0.4x, and interest - coverage ratio was 3.0x. It has some outstanding bonds, and its liquidity profile is considered manageable [12]. Offshore Asia New Issues - No new offshore Asia issues were priced today [13]. - Pipeline issues include Guotai Junan International Holdings (USD, 3yr, SOFR + 115, -/BBB+/-) and Jiaozuo State - owned Capital Operation (Holding) Group (USD, 3yr, 6.5%, unrated) [14]. News and Market Color - There were 139 credit bonds issued yesterday in onshore primary issuances, amounting to RMB205bn. Month - to - date, 1,473 credit bonds were issued, raising RMB1,582bn, a 19.7% yoy increase. China property loans reached a two - year high. Del Monte seeks approval to sell business by end - September with a USD575mn stalking - horse bid. Foshan R&F Properties auctions 387 units. JD and Meituan invest in humanoid robot startups. Guangzhou Kaisa Center will be auctioned. Fitch assigned BB rating to Li & Fung with stable outlook. Road King requests bond - holders to disclose identities and holdings by 1 Aug'25 4pm CET [16].
招银国际每日投资策略-20250723
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-23 02:49
Industry Insights - The Chinese equipment manufacturing industry is expected to benefit significantly from the rural road upgrade and renovation, which could create a market worth trillions of yuan [2][4]. - The newly implemented Rural Road Regulations emphasize improving road network quality and promoting integrated urban-rural transportation development [2]. Market Potential - As of the end of 2024, China's rural road total mileage is projected to be 4.64 million kilometers, accounting for approximately 85% of the national road total [4]. - It is estimated that 9% of rural roads (around 410,000 kilometers) may require upgrades over the next decade, with upgrade costs ranging from 30 million to 50 million yuan per kilometer, leading to potential annual expenditures of 1.2 trillion to 2 trillion yuan [4]. Beneficiaries - Companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Hengli Hydraulic, Weichai Power, and China National Heavy Duty Truck are expected to benefit from the rural road upgrades, acting as catalysts for the engineering machinery and heavy truck sectors [5].