Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating [6][27]. Core Insights - The company is a pioneer in luxury fragrance management in China, having introduced high-end perfumes systematically since 1980. It operates through a brand authorization model, providing comprehensive services from market access to consumer education [6][10]. - The Chinese perfume market is projected to be the fastest-growing segment in the cosmetics industry, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9-14% over the next 4-5 years. The company is positioned as a key beneficiary of this growth, with 81% of its revenue derived from fragrance sales [6][10][15]. - The company has a strong market presence, ranking third in market share in China (including Hong Kong and Macau) with 9.3% [9][11]. Financial Overview - The company’s projected financials indicate a steady increase in sales revenue from RMB 1,864 million in FY24A to RMB 3,134 million in FY28E, reflecting a CAGR of 15% [6][8]. - Net profit is expected to grow from RMB 206.5 million in FY24A to RMB 370.3 million in FY28E, with a notable increase of 32% in FY26E [6][8]. - The target price is set at HKD 3.49, representing a potential upside of 72.8% from the current price of HKD 2.02 [2][6]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the increasing penetration of perfumes in China, with per capita spending on perfumes significantly lower than in developed markets. In 2023, the per capita spending in China was RMB 16 compared to RMB 423 in the US [15][17]. - The growth in the perfume market is supported by rising consumer demand in lower-tier cities and a significant increase in male fragrance spending, which saw a 1151% year-on-year growth in 2023 [18][19]. Business Model and Strategy - The company operates a multi-brand strategy, managing over 70 international brands and providing a wide range of products across various price points, which enhances its negotiation power with distribution channels [22][25]. - The company has established a robust supply chain and distribution network, covering 400 cities and 7,800 sales terminals, which allows for precise matching of brands to sales channels [24][25]. Competitive Landscape - The company faces competition from both international luxury brands and emerging domestic brands. However, the report suggests that the threat from domestic brands is currently limited as they primarily serve to cultivate potential customers for high-end brands [27]. - The company has long-term contracts with key suppliers, reducing the risk of losing core brand operating rights, which is a concern among investors [27].

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,344, down 0.76% for the day but up 31.33% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the US saw increases of 0.44% and 0.70% respectively, with year-to-date gains of 13.81% and 18.01% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.22%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 14.23% [1] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Financial Index fell by 0.85%, while the Hang Seng Industrial and Commercial Index decreased by 0.68% [2] - The Hang Seng Property Index dropped by 1.25%, indicating a year-to-date increase of 23.48% [2] - The energy and consumer staples sectors in the Chinese stock market experienced declines, while materials, healthcare, and information technology sectors saw gains [3] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China is expected to continue a loose monetary policy, with potential reserve requirement ratio cuts of 50 basis points and interest rate cuts of 10 basis points in Q4 [3] - The steel industry in China will implement capacity controls, prohibiting new capacity additions from 2025 to 2026, with an expected annual growth of around 4% in value added [3] Company Focus - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a buy with a target price of 25.00, representing a 34% upside potential [4] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) is also rated as a buy, with a target price of 44.95, indicating a 20% upside [4] - Tencent (700 HK) has a target price of 705.00, suggesting a 10% upside potential [4] Technology Sector Insights - Nvidia plans to invest $100 billion to support OpenAI in building a 10GW data center, leading to a nearly 4% increase in its stock price [3] - The semiconductor sector is highlighted with companies like Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) and North Huachuang (002371 CH) rated as buy, with target prices indicating significant upside potential [4] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several companies with strong growth potential, including BYD Electronics (285 HK) and Salesforce (CRM US), both rated as buy with substantial upside targets [4] - The healthcare sector is represented by companies like BeiGene (ONC US) and 3SBio (1530 HK), both rated as buy, indicating confidence in their future performance [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the Chinese internet and software sectors, particularly focusing on the valuation enhancement opportunities within the Chinese internet software segment [4] - The report emphasizes the strong liquidity trends in the A+H stock market and a more optimistic narrative surrounding AI applications, suggesting that AI software applications may match the growth of hardware sectors in the medium to long term [4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,545, showing a year-to-date increase of 32.33%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 40.87% [1] - The report notes mixed performance in the Chinese stock market, with Hong Kong stocks in materials, energy, and consumer discretionary leading gains, while healthcare, utilities, and conglomerates saw declines [3] Sector Analysis - The report identifies key companies in the internet and software sectors that are expected to drive growth, including Alibaba, Baidu, Microsoft, Tencent, and Kuaishou, due to their strong cloud business growth and AI-driven revenue potential [4] - It also suggests that companies like Datadog and Kingdee International have room for valuation improvement and should be monitored for substantial progress in AI monetization [4] Stock Recommendations - The report provides a list of stocks with buy ratings, including Geely Automobile (target price 25.00, current price 18.96), Li Auto (target price 80.00, current price 65.15), and Tencent (target price 705.00, current price 642.00), indicating potential upside [5] - Specific recommendations include companies in various sectors such as healthcare (BeiGene, target price 359.47), consumer staples (Proya, target price 129.83), and technology (Xiaomi, target price 62.96) [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive long-term investment outlook for the Chinese internet and software sectors, suggesting structural opportunities for valuation improvement [3][5][14]. Core Insights - The Chinese stock market liquidity is improving, and the narrative around AI is becoming more optimistic, which is expected to drive growth in the internet and software sectors [3][5]. - The report highlights the strong growth potential of cloud services and AI applications, with companies like Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent expected to benefit significantly from these trends [3][5][27]. - The valuation of Chinese internet companies is currently at a discount compared to their overseas counterparts, indicating potential for recovery and growth [5][14]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The report notes that the performance of Chinese internet companies is expected to improve due to better-than-expected revenue growth in cloud services and AI applications [5][27]. - AI-related revenue growth is projected to continue, with significant contributions from both consumer and enterprise applications [27][28]. Company Performance - Alibaba's cloud revenue grew by 26% year-on-year, driven by AI-related products, which have maintained triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters [27][28]. - Tencent's advertising revenue increased by 20% year-on-year, supported by AI-driven improvements in platform traffic and ROI [27][28]. - Baidu's AI search capabilities have significantly enhanced user experience, covering 64% of mobile search results [27][28]. Valuation Comparisons - The current trading PE for Chinese internet and software sectors is 22x FY25E, compared to 29x for overseas counterparts, indicating a substantial valuation gap [14][19]. - The report suggests that the domestic sector's EPS growth rate of 17% for 2026, while slightly lower than the 21% for overseas, still presents an attractive investment opportunity [14][19]. AI Commercialization - AI applications are expected to play a crucial role in supporting valuation levels, with significant revenue contributions from both cloud computing and advertising sectors [27][28]. - Companies like Salesforce and Kuaishou are highlighted for their strong growth in AI-related revenues, with Kuaishou's AI revenue projected to reach 950 million yuan for FY25 [27][28]. Chip Development - Major Chinese internet companies are increasingly investing in self-developed chips to meet the growing demand for AI computing power, with Alibaba's PPU chip expected to outperform NVIDIA's offerings [19][20][24]. - Baidu and Tencent are also making significant strides in chip development, enhancing their competitive positions in the AI landscape [19][20][24].

2025 年 9 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观及行业点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,545 | -1.35 | 32.33 | | 恒生国企 | 9,457 | -1.46 | 29.72 | | 恒生科技 | 6,271 | -0.99 | 40.36 | | 上证综指 | 3,832 | -1.15 | 14.32 | | 深证综指 | 2,480 | -1.21 | 26.71 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,096 | -1.64 | 44.56 | | 美国道琼斯 | 46,142 | 0.27 | 8.46 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,632 | 0.48 | 12.76 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,471 | 0.94 | 16.36 | | 德国 DAX | 23,675 | 1.35 | 18.91 ...

美联储如期降息，更关注就业风险 美联储 9 月会议将政策利率下调 25bp 至 4.0%-4.25%，会议声明更加鸽派，强 调风险平衡发生转变，确认就业市场走弱风险上升。点阵图上调 9-12 月降息幅 度预测从 50bp 升至 75bp，上调 2025-2027 年经济增速和 2026 年通胀预测， 下调 2026 年失业率预测，暗示更大幅度降息将提振经济增长与通胀。鲍威尔在 记者会上称本次决定是"预防性"降息，利率水平向中性利率靠拢，但不代表 将转向宽松，强调美联储没有既定路径，未来决定将依赖最新数据。鲍威尔的 表态很难满足白宫与市场期待，国债收益率收回之前跌幅。近期就业走弱既有 需求放缓因素，也有供应减少原因，经济放缓依然温和。同时 9 月 CPI 增速可 能在能源与商品通胀推动下反弹，美联储 10 月可能再次暂停降息。随着经济持 续走弱，12 月可能再降息一次，联邦基金利率年底或降至 3.75%-4%。国债收 益率曲线可能陡峭化，10 年国债收益率年底可能升至 4.1%左右。因白宫持续 施压美联储降息，美元指数可能走弱。 2025 年 9 月 18 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HKD 705.0, indicating a potential upside of 6.6% from the current price of HKD 661.50 [3]. Core Insights - Tencent Cloud is focusing on two strategic directions: "intelligentization" and "globalization," with AI-enabled customer solutions and international business growth as key priorities [1][8]. - The company has accelerated the deployment of AI applications across both consumer (C-end) and business (B-end) sectors, showcasing significant growth in user engagement and application usage [7][10]. - Tencent Cloud's international business has seen high double-digit growth over the past year, with the number of overseas customers doubling, positioning it as a preferred choice for over 90% of internet companies and 95% of leading gaming companies going global [1][20]. Financial Summary - For FY23A, Tencent's revenue is reported at RMB 609,015 million, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 157,688 million. Projections for FY24A and FY25E show revenues of RMB 660,257 million and RMB 736,804 million, respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 222,703 million and RMB 252,172.5 million [2][27]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for FY24A is projected at RMB 23.96, increasing to RMB 27.17 in FY25E, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [2][27]. Strategic Developments - Tencent Cloud has launched a comprehensive AI application matrix, with over a hundred applications upgraded to include AI capabilities, enhancing user experience across platforms like WeChat and Tencent Meeting [8][10]. - The company has introduced the "Agent Runtime" solution to support intelligent agents, significantly improving deployment speed and operational efficiency [13][18]. - Tencent Cloud's mixed 3D model has improved modeling accuracy by three times compared to previous versions, facilitating faster production cycles for 3D assets [22][23].

每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk 2025 年 9 月 18 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,908 | 1.78 | 34.14 | | 恒生国企 | 9,597 | 2.24 | 31.64 | | 恒生科技 | 6,334 | 4.22 | 41.77 | | 上证综指 | 3,876 | 0.37 | 15.65 | | 深证综指 | 2,511 | 0.83 | 28.26 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,147 | 1.95 | 46.96 | | 美国道琼斯 | 46,018 | 0.57 | 8.17 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,600 | -0.10 | 12.22 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,261 | -0.33 | 15.28 | | 德国 DAX | 23,359 | 0.13 | 17.33 ...

2025 年 9 月 17 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk 港股分类指数上日表现 | | 收市价 | | 升/跌（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生金融 | 45,675 | -0.85 | 29.99 | | 恒生工商业 | 15,108 | 0.84 | 34.29 | | 恒生地产 | 18,991 | -1.46 | 27.35 | | 恒生公用事业 | 36,666 | 0.02 | 2.81 | | 资料来源：彭博 | | | | 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 1 环球主要股市上日表现 收市价 升跌（%） 单日 年内 恒生指数 26,439 0.19 31.80 恒生国企 9,386 0.23 28.76 恒生科技 6,078 1.48 36.02 上证综指 3,862 -0.23 15. ...

Group 1: Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile (175 HK), Li Auto (9863 HK), Zoomlion (1157 HK), Sany International (631 HK), and Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) with "Buy" ratings[5] - Target price for Geely Automobile is set at 25.00, indicating a potential upside of 36%[5] - Luckin Coffee has a target price of 44.95, representing a potential upside of 16%[5] Group 2: Financial Metrics - Geely Automobile has a market capitalization of $24.0 billion and a P/E ratio of 10.50 for FY24A[5] - Li Auto's market cap is $11.0 billion with a projected P/E ratio of 9.90 for FY25E[5] - The average dividend yield for the recommended stocks ranges from 0.0% (Luckin Coffee) to 5.2% (Green Tea Group)[5] Group 3: Performance Overview - The basket of 25 stocks listed in the previous report achieved an average return of 2.5%, compared to the MSCI China Index return of 6.8%[10] - Out of the 25 stocks, 10 outperformed the benchmark index[10] Group 4: Recent Changes - New addition to the recommended stocks is Guoquan Food (2517 HK) with a "Buy" rating[7] - Jiangnan Buyi (3306 HK) has been removed from the recommended list[7]