Global Market Overview - The report highlights a significant increase in major global stock markets, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.98% and the Nasdaq gaining 4.35% year-to-date performance reaching 24.63% [1][3] - The report notes that the market sentiment was positively influenced by the preliminary results of the US-China trade negotiations, leading to a rally in sectors sensitive to trade and economic cycles [3] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, sectors such as consumer discretionary, industrials, and information technology led the gains, while defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities lagged behind [3] - The report indicates that the Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 2.46% and the Hang Seng Industrial Index rose by 3.45% year-to-date performance for these sectors is 34.00% and 46.55% respectively [2] Economic Impact - The report discusses the reduction of tariffs between the US and China, with the average tariff rate for US goods to China dropping to approximately 53% and China's tariff rate to the US at around 33% [3] - The impact of tariff reductions on China's GDP growth forecast was adjusted from 1% to approximately 0.5%, leading to an upward revision of the second-quarter GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.8% [3] Investment Opportunities - The report lists several companies with buy ratings, including Geely Automobile (target price: 23.00), XPeng Motors (target price: 28.00), and Anta Sports (target price: 119.08), indicating potential upside of 21%, 33%, and 26% respectively [4] - Notable mentions include Luckin Coffee with a target price of 40.61 and a potential upside of 23%, and BYD Electronics with a target price of 43.22, showing a 14% upside [4] Market Sentiment - The easing of trade tensions has significantly boosted global market risk appetite, leading to a rebound in global equities and emerging market currencies, while safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries saw declines [3] - The report anticipates a delay in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, pushing the expected timing from July to September, with a potential additional cut in November or December [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to HKD 37.5, reflecting a potential upside of 15.6% from the current price of HKD 32.45 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a 1Q25 revenue of USD 541 million, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, driven by a 42% increase in wafer shipments, despite ongoing price pressures [1]. - The gross margin for 1Q25 was 9.2%, which is below market expectations and the guidance range, but improved from the previous year [1]. - Management expects 2Q25 revenue to be in the range of USD 550-570 million, indicating a year-on-year growth of 17% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3% [1]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from accelerated domestic substitution processes amid increasing geopolitical risks [1][7]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, the company is projected to achieve revenue of USD 2.317 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.6% [2][8]. - The gross margin is expected to recover to 10.6% in FY25E and further to 16.8% in FY26E [7][8]. - Net profit for FY25E is estimated at USD 24 million, with a significant recovery projected for FY26E at USD 253 million [2][8]. Market Position - The company maintains high capacity utilization rates of 100% for 8-inch and 105% for 12-inch factories, with new capacity expected to contribute to revenue starting from 1Q25 [7]. - Approximately 82% of the company's revenue is derived from China, with 9.4% from North America, positioning it favorably amid rising tariffs and export restrictions [7]. Valuation Metrics - The target price adjustment is based on a forecasted price-to-book ratio of 1.35 times for FY25, which is in line with the historical average [7]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 42.477 billion [3]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Shanghai Huahong International Co., Ltd. with 26.4% and Xinxin (Hong Kong) Investment Co., Ltd. with 13.0% [4]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a 22.7% return over the past three months and a 41.7% return over the past six months [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to HKD 37.5, reflecting a potential upside of 15.6% from the current price of HKD 32.45 [1][3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a 1Q25 revenue of USD 541 million, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, driven by a 42% increase in wafer shipments, despite ongoing price pressures [1]. - The gross margin for 1Q25 was 9.2%, which is below market expectations and the guidance range, but improved from 6.4% in the same quarter last year [1]. - Management expects 2Q25 revenue to be in the range of USD 550-570 million, indicating a 17% year-on-year growth [1]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from accelerated domestic substitution processes amid increasing geopolitical risks [1][7]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, the company is projected to achieve revenue of USD 2.317 billion, reflecting a 15.6% year-on-year growth, with gross margins expected to recover to 10.6% [2][8]. - The net profit for FY25E is estimated at USD 24 million, a significant decrease from the previous year, but expected to rebound in FY26E to USD 253 million [2][8]. - The company’s capacity utilization rates remain high at 100% for 8-inch and 105% for 12-inch factories, with new capacity expected to contribute from 1Q25 [7][8]. Market Position - Approximately 82% of the company's revenue comes from China, with 9.4% from North America, positioning it well to benefit from domestic demand for semiconductor manufacturing [7]. - The report highlights that the company is likely to maintain high utilization rates post new capacity deployment, driven by increasing domestic chip manufacturing needs [7].

2025 年 5 月 12 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观、行业及公司点评 ◼ 中国经济 - 转口贸易和抢出口暂时抵消关税影响 尽管受到关税冲击，中国出口在 4 月仍表现出意想不到的韧性。尽管对美出 口大幅下滑，但对东盟的强劲增长在很大程度上抵消了这一损失，凸显了东 盟作为贸易转口目的地的作用日益增强。进口也远超市场预期，工业原材料 和集成电路进口量激增，可能因为对美国芯片关税豁免政策刺激抢进口。 我们预计关税政策最坏时刻可能过去，但对外贸冲击最严重的时刻尚未到来。 中国到美国的集装箱海运订单量和 PMI 出口订单指数等先行指标均大幅下降。 中美已开启谈判，我们认为将总体关税税率从 145%降至 80%在近期是可以 实现的，但进一步降至 30-40%的长期终端税率可能需要更长时间。 展望未来，我们预计中国商品出口增速将从 2024 年 5.9%放缓至 2025 年 1%， 进口增速可能从 1.1%小幅放缓至 0.5%。我们预计美元/人民币将从 2024 年 底的 7.35 降至 2025 年底的 7.25。（链接） 招银国际研究部 全球市场观察 宏观点评 邮件：resea ...

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY with a target price revised up to HK$37.50, reflecting a 15.6% upside from the current price of HK$32.45 [3][6] Core Insights - Hua Hong Semi reported 1Q25 revenue of US$541 million, up 17.6% YoY, driven by a 42% increase in wafer shipments, although ASP pressure continues [1] - The gross profit margin (GPM) for 1Q25 was 9.2%, showing improvement from 6.4% in 1Q24, but below consensus estimates by 1.3 percentage points [1] - Management guided 2Q revenue to be between US$550 million and US$570 million, indicating a 17% YoY growth and a 3% QoQ increase [1] - The company is expected to benefit from increased domestic demand for chip fabrication amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, which may accelerate semiconductor localization in China [6] Financial Performance Summary - FY25 revenue is projected to grow by 15.6% YoY to US$2,317 million, with a GPM of 10.6% [2][6] - Net profit for FY25 is estimated at US$24 million, a significant decline from US$58 million in FY24 [2][6] - The company’s GPM is expected to recover slowly due to ASP pressures and increased depreciation costs from new fab ramp-ups [6] Share Performance and Market Data - The market capitalization of Hua Hong Semi is HK$42,477.1 million, with an average turnover of HK$1,748.7 million over the last three months [3] - The stock has shown a 1-month performance of 10.0% and a 6-month performance of 41.7% [5] Shareholding Structure - Major shareholders include Shanghai Hua Hong with 26.4% and XINXIN HK Capital with 13.0% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for FIT Hon Teng with a new target price of HK$3.48, reflecting a potential upside of 69.8% from the current price of HK$2.05 [3][17]. Core Insights - FIT Hon Teng's 1Q25 revenue grew by 14% year-over-year, but net profit declined by 38% year-over-year, primarily due to lower gross profit margin (GPM) and foreign exchange headwinds [1][9]. - The management has lowered the 2025 guidance for smartphone sales by 15% year-over-year and for system products by 5% to 5% year-over-year, citing macroeconomic uncertainties and the impact of US tariffs [1][9]. - Despite near-term challenges, the report remains optimistic about the demand for AI server products, the ramp-up of AirPods production in India, and progress in automotive mergers and acquisitions in 2025 [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY25E, revenue is projected at US$5,132 million, reflecting a 15.3% year-over-year growth, while net profit is expected to reach US$225.5 million, a 46.1% increase year-over-year [2][16]. - The report indicates a decrease in earnings per share (EPS) estimates for FY25-26E by 10-18% due to the 1Q25 results and revised guidance [1][17]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 20.5% in FY25E, with operating profit margin projected at 7.8% [16][24]. Segment Performance - In 1Q25, smartphone and system product revenues declined by 6% and 4% year-over-year, respectively, while networking, computing, and automotive segments showed strong growth of 46%, 13%, and 89% year-over-year [9][14]. - The management anticipates a revenue decline of 15% year-over-year for smartphone/system products in 2Q25, while networking/mobility is expected to grow by 15% year-over-year [9][14]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.3x for FY25E and 6.3x for FY26E, which is considered attractive compared to industry peers [3][18]. - The report highlights that the new target price of HK$3.48 is based on a P/E of 14.1x for FY25E, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [17][18].

每日投资策略 行业、公司点评 全球市场观察 行业点评 ◼ 可选消费行业 - 短线趋势向好，但对中长期看法仍然审慎 相比于 3 月， 4 月各子行业的消费数据普遍都有不错的环比改善，而五一黄 金周的数据则在此基础上维持或有转好，主要原因是: 1)连假期比去年多，2) 天气开始转好，3) 基数较低，4)国家对家电和电子产品的补贴(去年同比没有) 以及 5)入境游强劲带来新增的消费力等。分行业来说，服装和旅游-酒店行业 好于预期，体育用品和家电行业符合预期，而餐饮低于预期。 短线来说，我们对 5 月和 2 季度的展望仍然略为正面，主要是因为: 1)低基数 逐渐开始出现等的原因让一部分消费子行业有结构性的反弹，2)行业竞争转 趋理性，3)天气转好，4）京东和淘宝加大补贴力度，以及 5)入境游强劲带来 新增的消费力等的利好仍然有望延续。我们认为仍然是加仓布局龙头公司的 好时机。 2025 年 5 月 9 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收 ...

2025 年 5 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 全球机械制造商对关税影响的评估 我们总结了部分全球机械制造商近期对美国关税影响的评估。如果关税持续生 效，大多数企业预计其影响将从第三季度开始显现。根据我们整理的数据，在 主要企业中, 小松（6301 JP，未评级）似乎受到的冲击相对较大。然而，值得 注意的是，该评估是基于各公司自身不同的预设情景所得出的, 因此不一定能 够同口径对比。 中国资本品行业 冯键嵘, CFA (852) 3900 0826 waynefung@cmbi.com.hk 相关报告: Capital Goods sector – 1Q25 earnings: SANY Heavy beat; Zoomlion & Weichai slightly below expectation – 30 Apr 2025 (link) SANY Heavy (600031 CH, BUY) – 2024 earnings inline; Emerging markets remain the key focus – 18 Apr 2025 (link) 资本品 Zhejia ...

中国保险行业 2025 年 5 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 股票投资风险因子拟再优化，险资长钱加速入市可期 5 月 7 日，央行、金融监管总局和证监会在国新办发布会上宣布一揽子金融政策， 其中有关保险行业的增量政策包括 1）进一步扩大保险资金长期投资试点范围，近 期拟再批复 600 亿元，为市场注入更多增量资金；2）调整偿付能力监管规则，将 股票投资风险因子进一步下调 10%（继 2023 年 9 月 13 日《关于优化保险公司偿 付能力监管标准的通知》后再度下调，报告链接）；3）完善长周期考核机制，促 进实现长钱长投。我们认为这是监管对 4 月初上调保险资金权益投资上限比例（报 告链接）后的有力补充。经测算，若将股票投资风险因子对应释放的最低资本全部 用于配置沪深 300 股票，有望带来逾 1,500 亿元增量入市资金；调整后 24 年行业 平均综合偿付能力充足率将提升至 200.6%（原：199.4%），增加 1.3 个百分点。 中国保险行业 马毓泽 (852) 3900 0805 nikama@cmbi.com.hk 相关报告： 1. China Insurance: Ra ...

2025 年 5 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 全球市场观察 宏观经济 中国经济-货币政策宽松应对关税冲击 为应对关税冲击，中国推出额外一揽子货币金融政策，加大提振股市与房市 力度。一揽子货币金融政策将温和放松流动性和信贷供应，鼓励股市和房市 情绪。但这些政策无法完全抵消关税冲击对中国经济的影响，我们预计关税 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 招银国际研究部 宏观及行业点评 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 22,692 | 0.13 | 33.11 | | 恒生国企 | 8,242 | -0.23 | 42.88 | | 恒生科技 | 5,200 | -0.75 | 38.14 | | 上证综指 | 3,343 | 0.80 | 12.36 | | 深证综指 | 1,9 ...