Market Overview - Global markets experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.73% and the Nasdaq falling by 3.56% [1][3] - The Chinese stock market faced significant pullbacks due to escalating trade tensions with the U.S., leading to increased risk aversion among investors [3] Industry Insights - The Chinese pharmaceutical sector has seen a 74.9% increase in the MSCI China Healthcare Index since early 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 35.8% [4] - Recent pullbacks in the healthcare sector present buying opportunities, driven by a recovery in capital market financing and an increase in demand for innovative drug development [4][6] - The market is advised to focus on the clinical progress of authorized innovative drug pipelines overseas, which could enhance their value [4] Company Analysis - China Biologic Products (1177 HK) has shown promising results with its PDE3/4 inhibitor TQC3721 in Phase II clinical trials, indicating significant potential for improving lung function in COPD patients [6][7] - TQC3721 demonstrated a peak FEV1 improvement of 147ml compared to the placebo group, suggesting its potential as a leading treatment option in the COPD market [8][9] - The global COPD market is substantial, with nearly 480 million affected individuals, highlighting the significant market potential for TQC3721 [9] - China Biologic Products maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 9.40, anticipating revenue growth rates of +19.1% for 2025 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 9.40, indicating a potential upside of 20.5% from the current price of HKD 7.80 [4][10]. Core Insights - The clinical data for the PDE3/4 inhibitor TQC3721 shows promising results, with significant improvements in lung function and symptoms for patients with severe COPD after 4 weeks of treatment [1][2]. - TQC3721 is positioned as the second globally in development and the only PDE3/4 inhibitor currently in Phase III clinical trials, suggesting substantial market potential and opportunities for licensing [10][12]. - The financial projections indicate a revenue growth of 19.1% for FY25E, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 81.3% in the same year [3][13]. Financial Summary - Sales revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 26,199 in FY23A to 34,380 in FY25E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [3][17]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from 2,589 in FY24A to 6,267 in FY25E, marking an increase of 81.3% [3][13]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to reach RMB 0.33 in FY25E, with a corresponding adjusted P/E ratio of 21.6 [3][10]. Clinical Data Highlights - In the Phase II clinical trial, TQC3721 demonstrated a peak FEV1 improvement of 147ml compared to the placebo group, aligning with the results of the approved competitor, ensifentrine [2][10]. - The safety profile of TQC3721 is favorable, with no significant adverse effects reported in gastrointestinal, cardiovascular, or renal functions during the trials [1][10]. Market Context - The global COPD market is substantial, with nearly 480 million affected individuals, and TQC3721's development is timely given the increasing demand for effective treatments [10][12]. - The competitive landscape is highlighted by the recent FDA approval of ensifentrine, which underscores the potential for TQC3721 to capture market share as it progresses through clinical trials [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the Chinese pharmaceutical sector, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in the next 12 months [31]. Core Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 74.9% since early 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 35.8%. A recent 3% decline in the healthcare sector presents a buying opportunity due to a recovery in capital market financing and an increase in overseas transactions for innovative drugs [1][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of clinical advancements for authorized innovative drug pipelines overseas, which are expected to act as catalysts for stock price increases [4]. - The outlook for the innovative drug sector remains positive, driven by overseas partnerships and clinical progress, while consumer healthcare is also seen as having valuation recovery potential [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that the healthcare sector is expected to outperform the market in the next 12 months [32]. Company Ratings and Valuations - **Sangfor Pharma (1530 HK)**: Buy, Market Cap: $8,785 million, Target Price: $37.58, Upside: 34%, FY25E P/E: 6.8 [2]. - **Giant Biologics (2367 HK)**: Buy, Market Cap: $7,357 million, Target Price: $71.30, Upside: 33%, FY25E P/E: 22.5 [2]. - **WuXi AppTec (2268 HK)**: Buy, Market Cap: $11,068 million, Target Price: $74.00, Upside: 3%, FY25E P/E: 52.2 [2]. - **Gushengtang (2273 HK)**: Buy, Market Cap: $984 million, Target Price: $48.28, Upside: 54%, FY25E P/E: 16.1 [2]. - **China National Pharmaceutical Group (1177 HK)**: Buy, Market Cap: $18,809 million, Target Price: $9.40, Upside: 21%, FY25E P/E: 21.1 [2]. - **Innovent Biologics (1801 HK)**: Buy, Market Cap: $20,683 million, Target Price: $109.48, Upside: 17%, FY25E P/E: 147.8 [2]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The report highlights a recovery in the demand for innovative drug research and development in China, supported by a resurgence in capital market financing and a favorable environment for overseas clinical trials [1][4]. - The report also notes that the U.S. remains a significant market for Chinese innovative drugs, despite recent pricing agreements that may affect short-term revenues [4].

Macro Overview - The report indicates a cautious optimism regarding China's holiday economy, with moderate growth in consumption during the National Day holiday. Key trends include strong performance in green, smart, and experiential consumption [2][4] - Despite recent relaxations in real estate policies in first-tier cities, the real estate market remains weak, with a significant year-on-year decline in new and second-hand housing sales [3][6] - The report anticipates that core CPI and PPI growth will rebound, alleviating deflationary pressures, with liquidity conditions expected to remain loose for at least the next two quarters [2][7][8] Internet Sector - The online travel agency (OTA) sector shows resilience, with keywords "quality" and "long-distance travel" indicating strong demand. Long-distance travel bookings on Ctrip increased by 3 percentage points year-on-year [28][30] - During the holiday, Alibaba's Fliggy reported a 14.6% year-on-year increase in average transaction value, while Tongcheng Travel noted nearly 100% growth in outbound group travel bookings [28][31] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Ctrip (TCOM US) and Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) based on these positive trends [28] Consumer Discretionary - The report expresses a cautious outlook for retail sales growth during the 2025 National Day holiday, attributing potential risks to high base effects from 2024, lack of government subsidies, and ongoing macroeconomic pressures [32][35] - The report highlights a preference for consumer downgrade themes and high-dividend stocks, with concerns over profit margin pressures due to increased competition and discounting [32][35] Automotive Sector - The report notes a significant divergence in sales during the National Day holiday, with new energy vehicles (NEVs) outperforming traditional fuel vehicles. The introduction of popular NEV models is expected to drive order growth [6][32] - The forecast for national passenger vehicle retail and wholesale sales in 2025 has been slightly raised, reflecting better-than-expected sales in Q3 and potential pre-purchase demand for NEVs [6][32] Real Estate Sector - The report indicates that the effectiveness of real estate policies is diminishing, with a notable decline in sales volume for new and second-hand homes during the holiday period [3][6] - The report anticipates that further easing measures may be necessary to stimulate housing demand, as sales data remains weak despite policy support [3][6] Selected Stocks - The report identifies several preferred stocks, including Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US), Guoquan (2517 HK), Green Tea Group (6831 HK), Jiumaojiu (9922 HK), Li Ning (2331 HK), Bosideng (3998 HK), and JS Global Life (1691 HK) [33][41]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,753, down 0.29% for the day but up 33.36% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.32% to 3,934, with a year-to-date increase of 17.37% [1] - Southbound capital net bought Hong Kong stocks worth HKD 3.04 billion, with Kuaishou, ZTE, and Xiaomi being the top net buyers [3] Industry Insights - The heavy truck industry in China saw a significant increase in sales, with September wholesale sales growing 82% year-on-year to 105,000 units, driven by truck replacement subsidies [5] - The forecast for total heavy truck sales in 2023 is expected to reach 1.1 million units, a 22% increase year-on-year [5] Company Analysis - Weichai Power (2338 HK) is viewed positively despite concerns over the rapid growth of new energy heavy truck penetration, with a projected P/E ratio of 8 times for 2026 and a dividend yield exceeding 6% [6] - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (3808 HK) faces technology risks due to the transition to new energy but maintains a "Hold" rating due to strong sales across all heavy truck types [6] - Alibaba (BABA US) is expected to see a 2% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2 FY26, with significant contributions from customer management and cloud services [6]

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,829, down 0.48% for the day but up 33.75% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 increased by 0.58% to close at 6,754, with a year-to-date gain of 14.83% [1] - The Nasdaq saw a rise of 1.12%, closing at 23,043, marking a 19.33% increase year-to-date [1] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - The Hang Seng Financial Index decreased by 0.57%, with a year-to-date increase of 27.76% [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index fell by 0.47%, but has risen 39.20% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index saw a slight decline of 0.15%, with a year-to-date increase of 21.27% [2] Investment Themes - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. Beneficiaries of the AI technology revolution, including AI hardware, applications, and healthcare sectors 2. Sectors benefiting from liquidity easing, dollar depreciation, and China's anti-involution policies, such as materials and industrials 3. Defensive high-dividend sectors [3] - The report notes a strong performance in the materials sector, driven by rising gold and non-ferrous metal prices [3] U.S. Market Insights - The U.S. stock market reached new historical highs, led by technology, industrials, and utilities, while energy and consumer staples lagged [3] - Nvidia's stock reached a record high, with significant demand for its products, indicating a renewed enthusiasm for the AI sector [3] - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicated a consensus on the importance of employment risks over inflation risks, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. federal government deficit for the fiscal year ending September 30 reached $1.8 trillion, remaining stable compared to the previous year [3] - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts in October but could implement a 25 basis point cut in December [3]

Report Overview - The report is a fixed income daily market update by CMBI, covering trading desk comments, macro news, and analysis of various bonds and new issues [1][2] Trading Desk Comments - On Monday, trading flows were light due to holidays in mainland China, Taiwan, and Korea [2] - Asian institutions sold French names like BNP, ACAFP, and SOCGEN, as well as Japanese and Yankee AT1s and insurance hybrids [2] - In Greater China, ZHOSHK 28 tightened 2bps, and EHICAR 26 - 27s were unchanged to 1.1pts higher [2] - In properties, FAEACO 12.814 Perp rose 14.7pts after the coupon deferral notice deadline passed [2] - NWDEVL Perps were unchanged to 0.2pt higher, and NWDEVL 27 - 31s were 0.2pt lower to 0.3pt higher [2] - HYSAN 4.85 Perp was up 0.3pt, and VNKRLE 27 - 29s lowered 0.2 - 0.4pt [2] - FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26/LNGFOR 27 - 32s were 0.2pt lower to 0.2pt higher [2] - In Southeast Asia, GARUDA 31s rose 0.9pt, and VLLPM were down 0.2 - 1.0pt [2] - VEDLN 28 - 33s were unchanged to 0.1pt lower [2] - In LGFV space, TAIANH 6.9 07/16/28 and FZSZJJ 7 12/27/27 leaked 0.9 - 1.7pts [2] - This morning, flows remained light with mainland China still on holiday [3] - GARUDA 31s rose 3.1 - 3.9pts, and LASUDE 26 was 2.9pts higher [3] - CHGDNU 48/EHICAR 26 were 0.9 - 2.1pts lower [3] - VEDLN 28 - 33s were 0.1 - 0.3pt lower [3] - IHFLIN 27 - 28 were 0.5 - 0.6pt lower after Moody's placed Sammaan Capital's B2 rating on review for upgrade [3] Top Performers and Underperformers | Security | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | FAEACO 12.814 PERP | 56.7 | 14.7 | | HCELEC 4.65 12/29/26 | 67.9 | 1.4 | | EHICAR 7 09/21/26 | 81.3 | 1.1 | | GARUDA 6 1/2 12/28/31 | 88.8 | 0.9 | | CFAMCI 5 1/2 04/27/47 | 98.0 | 0.8 | | CCAMCL 4 3/4 12/04/37 | 93.3 | -1.7 | | TAIANH 6.9 07/16/28 | 94.3 | -1.7 | | VLLPM 9 3/8 07/29/29 | 49.5 | -1.0 | | FZSZJJ 7 12/27/27 | 99.3 | -0.9 | | TENCNT 3.68 04/22/41 | 85.1 | -0.9 | [4] Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, S&P (-0.38%), Dow (-0.20%), and Nasdaq (-0.67%) were lower [6] - The release of US Aug'25 trade balance was delayed due to the federal government shutdown [6] - 2/5yr UST yield was lower, while 10/30yr UST yield was higher on Tuesday [6] - 2/5/10/30 yield was at 3.57%/3.71%/4.14%/4.73% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - Vedanta Resources (VRL) priced USD500mn VEDLN 9.125 10/15/32 with an orderbook of over USD1.6bn [7] - Net proceeds are for prepaying the 18% private credit facility due Apr'26 [7] - Over 14 months, VRL has raised USD3.6bn in USD bonds, smoothing its maturity profile and lowering funding costs [7] - Analysts prefer VEDLN 9.475 07/24/30 for a better risk - adjusted profile [7] - The new VEDLN 32s trade in line with VEDLN 31s at 9.0% YTW [7] - VEDLN 9.475 07/24/30 trades at 102.2 with 8.8% YTW, offering 46bps pickup over NICAU 9 09/30/30 [7] VRL's Outstanding USD Bonds | Security name | ISIN | Amt o/s (USD mn) | Ask px | YTW | Issue rating (M/S/F) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | VEDLN 10.25 06/03/28 | USG9T27HAH76 | 300 | 103.7 | 7.8% | -/B/B+ | | VEDLN 10.875 09/17/29 | USG9T27HAG93 | 1,200 | 105.4 | 8.7% | -/B/- | | VEDLN 9.475 07/24/30 | USG9T27HAL88 | 550 | 102.2 | 8.8% | B2/B/- | | VEDLN 11.25 12/03/31 | USG9T27HAJ33 | 500 | 107.7 | 9.0% | -/B/B+ | | VEDLN 9.125 10/15/32 | USG9T27HAN45 | 500 | 100.3 | 9.0% | B2/-/B+ | | VEDLN 9.85 04/24/33 | USG9T27HAK06 | 550 | 102.5 | 9.1% | B2/B/- | [8] Offshore Asia New Issues Priced - Muthoot Finance (tap) issued 150mn USD, 5 - year bonds with a coupon of 101.75 and an issue rating of Ba1/BB+/- [11] Pipeline - There are no offshore Asia new issues in the pipeline today [12] News and Market Color - Onshore primary issuances are suspended during the National Day Holiday [19] - Macau logged over 1mn visitors in the first 7 days of Oct'25 Golden Week [19] - Adani Green inked a USD250mn loan from four global banks for refinancing [19] - Garuda Indonesia asked for a USD600 - 800mn injection from Danantara to maintain 51 aircraft [19] - GLP received interest from Middle East institutions for a strategic investment of about USD1bn [19] - LG Electronics India's USD1.3bn IPO sold out on the first day [19] - Canara Robeco AMC, ORIX's Indian JV, plans an IPO of INR13.3bn (about USD149.4mn) [19] - Sinopec is adding at least 169mn barrels of oil reserves [19] - San Miguel was fined for a'misstatement' in its 1H25 earnings report [19]

Global Market Overview - The report highlights that major global stock markets experienced mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index remaining stable at 26,958, while the US markets showed slight declines, particularly the Nasdaq which fell by 0.67% [1][3] - Emerging markets have shown strong recovery this year, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 28%, marking the largest increase since 2009, significantly outperforming the MSCI Developed Markets Index [3] - The report notes a shift in investor sentiment, with funds moving from bond markets to alternative assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin due to concerns over currency devaluation and high government debt levels [3] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 45,150, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 28.50%, while the Hang Seng Industrial Index rose by 39.85% [2] - The report indicates that the Hang Seng Property Index increased by 21.45%, whereas the Hang Seng Utilities Index saw a slight decline of 0.33% [2] Japanese Market Insights - Japan's stock market surged following the unexpected election of a pro-stimulus leader, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching its highest level since 2008, indicating a potential shift towards more expansive monetary and fiscal policies [3] - The report suggests that this political change may enhance macroeconomic stimulus prospects in Japan [3] US Market Dynamics - The US stock market experienced a pullback, particularly in consumer discretionary and industrial sectors, while utilities and financials showed gains [3] - Notable movements included Oracle's significant decline due to disappointing cloud business margins, while AMD's stock rose following a partnership with OpenAI [3] Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices reached a historic high, closing above $4,000, driven by a weaker dollar and high government debt levels [3] - The report also mentions a surge in cobalt prices due to export control measures from the Democratic Republic of Congo, raising concerns about long-term supply constraints [3]

Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI fell from 52 in August to 50 in September, indicating stagnation in service sector expansion, below the market expectation of 51.7[2] - The Services PMI corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of 0.4%[2] - The Manufacturing PMI increased slightly from 48.7 in August to 49.1 in September, above the market expectation of 49, indicating a slowdown in contraction[2] Employment and Inflation - The employment index in the services sector rose from 46.5 to 47.2, showing a slower contraction[2] - The price index for services increased from 69.2 to 69.4, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures[2] - The number of initial unemployment claims decreased at the end of September compared to the beginning of the month, suggesting stability in the job market[1] Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown in October is expected to lead to 700,000 federal employees being furloughed, with an estimated GDP impact of 0.1-0.2 percentage points for each week of shutdown[1] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting may reference September data, with a 96.2% market expectation for no rate cut in October due to improved employment data and high inflation[1] Future Projections - The Federal Reserve is likely to pause rate cuts in October but may consider a rate cut in December as economic slowdown continues[1]

2025 年 10 月 6 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 27,141 | 0.00 | 35.30 | | 恒生国企 | 9,658 | 0.00 | 32.49 | | 恒生科技 | 6,623 | 0.00 | 48.22 | | 上证综指 | 3,883 | 0.00 | 15.84 | | 深证综指 | 2,519 | 0.00 | 28.71 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,238 | 0.00 | 51.20 | | 美国道琼斯 | 46,758 | 0.00 | 9.91 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,716 | 0.00 | 14.18 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,781 | 0.00 | 17.97 | | 德国 DAX | 24,379 | 0.00 | 22.45 | | 法国 C ...