邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk 宏观经济、行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 宏观经济 美国经济 - PMI 预警滞涨风险 美国 7 月服务业 PMI 扩张几乎停滞，商业活动和订单需求明显放缓，就业收 缩幅度扩大，物价大幅走高。制造业 PMI 跌至近一年新低，新订单指数小幅 反弹但延续收缩，就业收缩幅度创近 1 年新高，物价扩张幅度放缓但仍显著 高于疫情后平均水平，进口指数、自有库存和客户库存连续收缩，显示企业 为规避关税而提前抢购和囤货浪潮已经结束。 2025 年 8 月 7 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 招银国际研究部 | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 24,911 | 1.64 | 24.18 | | 恒生国企 | 8,933 | 1.46 | 22.54 | | 恒生科技 | 5,532 | 2.50 | 23.81 | | 上证综指 | 3,634 | 2.08 | 8.42 | | 深证综指 | 2,226 ...

2025 年 8 月 6 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 Economic Perspectives - PMI 预警滞涨风险 美国 7 月服务业 PMI 扩张几乎停滞，商业活动和订单需求明显放缓，就业收缩幅 度扩大，物价大幅走高。制造业 PMI 跌至近一年新低，新订单指数小幅反弹但延 续收缩，就业收缩幅度创近 1 年新高，物价扩张幅度放缓但仍显著高于疫情后平 均水平，进口指数、自有库存和客户库存连续收缩，显示企业为规避关税而提前 抢购和囤货浪潮已经结束。数据公布后，市场对全年降息幅度预期下降 5 个基点 至 58 个基点。第 3 季度美联储将面临保就业和降通胀的两难，一方面就业市场加 速走弱，另一方面关税对通胀影响进一步显现，CPI 增速可能反弹。鲍威尔曾在 7 月记者会上表示即使新增就业降至 0，只要失业率保持平稳，仍会判定就业市场 保持稳健。这番表态可能会在 8 月底的 Jackson Hole 美联储年度经济政策研讨会 上被更新，届时鲍威尔可能给出降息指引。我们预计第 3 季度失业率可能仅小幅 上升，通胀有所反弹，美联储 9 月可能保持利率不变，10 月和 12 月可能各降 ...

Global Economic Overview - The global economy is experiencing a slowdown with diverging growth rates and increasing inflation disparities, leading to differentiated monetary policies across countries [1][3] - The US aims to attract industrial investment through high tariffs, a small government, low tax rates, and low oil prices, while China plans to moderately expand fiscal stimulus and support for households [1][3] United States - The US GDP growth is projected to decline from 2% in the first half of the year to 1.3% in Q3 and 1% in Q4, with a further drop to 1.6% in 2025 [1][4] - Unemployment is expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.5% by year-end, while inflation is anticipated to rebound slightly before gradually decreasing [1][6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates twice in Q4, with the 10-year Treasury yield forecasted to decrease from 4.5% to 4.1% by year-end [1][9] United Kingdom - The UK economy is forecasted to slow down, with GDP growth decreasing from 1.3% in Q1 to 0.9% in Q4, and a projected decline to 1% in 2025 [1][14] - Inflation is expected to rise initially before declining, with CPI growth peaking at 3.6% in Q3 and falling to 3.2% in Q4 [1][17] - The Bank of England may lower interest rates once in Q4 and twice in the following year, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to decrease from 4.6% to 4.35% by year-end [1][21] Eurozone - The Eurozone is also facing economic slowdown, with GDP growth projected to fall from 1.5% in Q1 to 0.9% in Q4, and a slight recovery to 1.2% in 2026 [1][1] - Inflation is expected to decrease, with CPI growth declining from 2.3% in Q1 to 1.8% in Q4 [1][1] - The European Central Bank is anticipated to cut interest rates once in the second half of the year, with the 10-year AAA bond yield expected to rise from 2.75% to 2.9% by year-end [1][1] Japan - Japan's economy is projected to slow down, with GDP growth decreasing from 1.7% in Q1 to 0.4% in Q4, and a slight recovery to 0.9% in 2025 [1][1] - Inflation is expected to decline, with CPI growth falling from 3.8% in Q1 to 2.1% in Q4 [1][1] - The Bank of Japan is likely to delay interest rate hikes until January 2026, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to rise from 1.57% to 1.7% by year-end [1][1] China - China's GDP growth is forecasted to decrease from 5.4% in Q1 to 4.6% in Q4, with a further decline to 4.9% in 2025 [1][1] - Inflation is expected to fluctuate, with CPI growth projected to drop to -0.2% in Q3 before rising to 1% in Q4 [1][1] - The Chinese government plans to moderately expand fiscal stimulus, with a broad deficit rate expected to rise from 6.6% in 2024 to 9% in 2026 [1][1]

2025 年 8 月 6 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 软件 & IT 服务 软件 & IT服务 - 海外云厂商：营收增速环比加快，利润率表现分化 对于美国龙头云厂商，云业务的增长情况已经逐步成为助推公司股价增长的 重要推动力。在 2Q25 业绩中，我们观察到如下趋势：1）因需求端持续强 劲，整体龙头厂商云业务营收同比增速环比加快，且趋势有望持续。2Q25 亚马逊 AWS、谷歌云、微软智能云板块营收合计同比增长 23%（1Q25： 20%；2Q24：21%），而谷歌云和微软 Azure 云展现出的加速趋势更为明 显。2）因观察到需求端持续强劲，龙头云厂商资本开支水平进一步上调， 并指出供给端受限部分影响到合同履约，且目前能见度下认为供给受限的情 况将在未来的 6 个月延续。3）AI 相关资本开支的投资对利润率端带来的影 响，对于此前云业务已经较具规模的龙头公司而言逐步显现，但其他核心业 务的运营效率进一步提升或有望缓和集团层面的利润率影响，如尽管微软智 能云/亚马逊 AWS 的 2Q25 业务分部利润率同比下滑 0.7ppts/2.6ppts，但公 司整体的经营利润率分别同比提升 1.8p ...

Global Market Overview - Major global stock markets showed positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,903, up 1.61% for the day and 24.14% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.29%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 23.57% [1] - The US markets experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 1.20% and the S&P 500 down 0.98% [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 2.00%, with a year-to-date rise of 27.05% [2] - The Hang Seng Property Index rose by 1.35%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 22.31% [2] Chinese Stock Market Insights - The Chinese stock market saw gains, particularly in healthcare, materials, and information technology sectors, while real estate and consumer sectors lagged [3] - Southbound capital inflow reached a four-month high of 23.43 billion HKD [3] - A forecast for the A-share market indicated strong performance for upstream companies in non-ferrous metals and chemicals due to rising product prices [3] Company Analysis: Yum China - Yum China maintained its full-year guidance, with Q2 sales increasing by 4% to 2.79 billion USD and net profit rising by 1% to 215 million USD, aligning with market expectations [4] - The company reported a gross margin of 70.9% and an operating profit margin of 10.9%, both exceeding market expectations [4] - The management set a conservative same-store sales growth target for the second half of the year, citing macroeconomic instability and cautious consumer behavior [5] Company Analysis: China Tower - China Tower's H1 2025 results met expectations, with revenue growing by 2.8% year-on-year to 49.6 billion RMB and net profit increasing by 8.0% to 5.8 billion RMB [5] - The net profit margin improved to 11.6%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [5] - The company announced an interim dividend of 0.13 RMB per share, enhancing shareholder returns [5] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK) rated as "Buy" with a target price of 24.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 32% [6] - Tencent (700 HK) also rated as "Buy" with a target price of 660.00 HKD, suggesting a 17% upside [6] - Alibaba (BABA US) rated as "Buy" with a target price of 141.20 USD, indicating a potential increase of 21% [6]

2025 年 8 月 6 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 24,903 | 1.61 | 24.14 | | 恒生国企 | 8,951 | 1.67 | 22.79 | | 恒生科技 | 5,521 | 2.29 | 23.57 | | 上证综指 | 3,618 | 1.62 | 7.93 | | 深证综指 | 2,209 | 1.56 | 12.87 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,343 | 0.89 | 9.42 | | 美国道琼斯 | 44,112 | 1.20 | 3.68 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,299 | 0.98 | 7.10 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 20,917 | 1.29 | 8.32 | | 德国 DAX | 23,846 | 1.79 | 19.77 | | 法国 CAC | 7,621 | 0.99 | ...

宏观经济与股票市场 2025年8月 经济体系 家庭部门 企业部门 金融部门 储蓄/投资 贷款 投资 融资 政府部门 要素收入 要素支出 消费支出 销售收入 直接税 间接税、直接税 转移支付 公共投资、消费 国债发行 国际部门 货币政策 经常项目；资本、金融项目 要素市场 产品市场 经常项目；资本、金融项目 经常项目；资本、金融项目 经常项目；资本、金融项目 来源：招银国际环球市场 1 • 宏观经济与资产配置 • 美国宏观经济与股市表现 • 中国宏观经济与股市表现 宏观经济与资产配置 3 3 经济指标 GDP 家庭消费 商品消费 服务消费 私人资本支 出 住宅投资 非住宅固定资产投资 存货投资 政府支出 政府消费 政府投资 净出口 商品与服务出口 商品与服务进口 就业，收入，储蓄率，消费贷款，偿债负担， 消费者信心，零售，汽车、手机、家电销量， 电影票房，CPI，核心CPI，PCE价格，核心 PCE价格…… 新屋销售，成屋销售，新房开工，按揭贷款， 房屋价格，土地价格…… PMI, 工业产出，产能利用率，耐用品订单， 企业利润，PPI…… 财政赤字，财政支出，税收入收入，财税政 策…… 海外经济，经常账户差额， ...

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update 固定收益部市场日报 The Asset Asian G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2025 We hope you found our commentaries and ideas helpful. We seek to elevate our efforts and value-add further in the coming year. We highly appreciate your support to us in Sell-Side Analysts of the polls of "The Asset Asian G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2025". Thank you for your support! Trading desk comments 交易台市场观点 Yesterday, the IG space opened 5-10bps wider with a more cautious tone. TH bank BBLTB su ...

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,508, down 1.60% for the day but up 45.32% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,573, down 1.18% for the day and up 20.11% year-to-date [1] - The U.S. Dow Jones closed at 44,131, down 0.74% for the day and up 17.09% year-to-date [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 44,485, down 1.37% for the day and up 49.16% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index closed at 18,268, down 2.31% for the day and down 0.33% year-to-date [2] Chinese Stock Market Insights - The Chinese stock market saw a rebound, with sectors like materials, information technology, and finance leading gains, while telecommunications and consumer staples lagged [3] - A total of 1.96 million new A-share accounts were opened in July, a 71% year-on-year increase [3] - The People's Bank of China indicated a preference for a strong RMB policy, with personal stock trading income remaining tax-exempt [3] Investment Opportunities - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a buy with a target price of 24.00, representing a 34% upside potential [4] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) is rated as a buy with a target price of 44.95, indicating a 21% upside potential [4] - Tencent (700 HK) is rated as a buy with a target price of 660.00, suggesting a 22% upside potential [4] Sector Analysis - The equipment manufacturing sector, represented by companies like Sany International (631 HK) and Zoomlion (1157 HK), shows strong buy ratings with target prices indicating significant upside potential [4] - The semiconductor sector, including companies like Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) and Beike Micro (2149 HK), is also rated as a buy, reflecting optimism in technological advancements [4]

Macro Economic Overview - The US job market has significantly weakened, with July non-farm payrolls falling below market expectations and a downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June, leading to a three-month moving average of 35,000 jobs [2] - The unemployment rate has slightly increased, reaching a new high since 2021, but remains at historical lows. The labor participation rate has continuously declined to its lowest since 2022, indicating a contraction in labor supply [2] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma as tariffs are expected to drive inflation up, with predictions of maintaining interest rates in September and potential rate cuts in October and December [4] Industry Insights Express Delivery Industry - Recent discussions between the State Post Bureau and express operators, along with proposed amendments to pricing laws, are expected to catalyze positive changes in the express delivery sector over the next 3-6 months [5] - An increase in package prices is anticipated, although the momentum may not be as strong as in 2022 due to the current profitability of express operators being higher than in 2021 [5] Semiconductor Industry - Major cloud service providers have reported higher-than-expected capital expenditures, with a total of $89 billion in Q2 2025, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus by 12.8% [6] - The demand for computing power is expected to continue growing, with a projected 43% year-on-year increase in global AI-related capital expenditures by 2025 [6] Technology Sector - Apple's Q2 2025 results exceeded market expectations, with revenue and EPS growth of 10% and 12% year-on-year, driven by strong iPhone sales and a rebound in the Chinese market [6] - The company anticipates a mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth for Q3, with a gross margin of 46%-47%, which is above market expectations [6] Company Analysis Amazon - Amazon's Q2 2025 revenue reached $167.7 billion, a 13.3% year-on-year increase, surpassing both internal and consensus expectations [7] - The company expects Q3 2025 revenue to be between $174 billion and $179.5 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 9.5%-13% [7] Coinbase - Coinbase reported a 28% quarter-on-quarter decline in net revenue to $1.42 billion, primarily due to reduced volatility in the cryptocurrency market [7] - Management expects a recovery in trading revenue in July, with guidance for Q3 2025 subscription and service revenue between $665 million and $745 million [7] Green Tea Group - Green Tea Group's H1 2025 net profit is expected to be between RMB 230 million and 237 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32%-36% [8] - The company anticipates a significant improvement in profit margins, with a projected net profit margin of approximately 10.2% for H1 2025, up from 9.4% in the previous year [8]