Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,710, up 1.38% for the day and 4.21% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.50% to close at 4,084, with a year-to-date increase of 2.89% [1] - The US markets also saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.99% and the S&P 500 up 0.62% [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 2.19%, while the Hang Seng Real Estate Index rose by 2.01% [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index saw a gain of 0.93%, reflecting a positive trend in the sector [2] Chinese Market Insights - Chinese stocks have been on a continuous rise, with significant net buying from southbound funds amounting to HKD 2.879 billion [3] - Key stocks such as China Ping An, Alibaba, and China Life saw the highest net inflows, while China Mobile and Tencent experienced the most significant net outflows [3] Monetary Policy and Economic Development - The People's Bank of China emphasized the importance of promoting high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery in its monetary policy [3] - The central bank plans to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, utilizing various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [3] Technology Sector Insights - The 2026 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) highlighted advancements in AI servers and AI PCs, with Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform ahead of schedule for production [4] - The penetration rate of AI PCs is expected to rise rapidly between 2026 and 2027, driven by new processors from Qualcomm, Intel, and AMD [4] - Key beneficiaries in the AI server and AI PC supply chain include companies like Hon Teng Precision, Luxshare Precision, and BYD Electronics [4]

Global Market Overview - The Chinese stock market has shown an upward trend, with healthcare, consumer discretionary, and real estate sectors leading, while energy, telecommunications, and conglomerates lagged behind. Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 18.72 billion, with Kuaishou, Xiaomi, and SMIC seeing the highest net purchases, while Tencent and China Mobile experienced significant net sales [3] - The A-share market saw gains in media, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, while oil, banking, and transportation sectors faced declines. The market is entering a spring offensive phase, with expectations that previously underperforming sectors like healthcare and consumer will outperform [3] - The U.S. stock market continued its upward trajectory, led by energy, financials, and consumer discretionary sectors, while defensive sectors like utilities, staples, and healthcare lagged. Major tech stocks such as Amazon and Tesla contributed to the gains [3] Economic Indicators - China's December RatingDog services PMI reached 52, indicating expansion, although new export orders contracted. Business outlook for the coming year has improved, with the government emphasizing the importance of innovation and the application of new technologies [3] - In the U.S., the December ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly contracted significantly, with new orders shrinking for the fourth consecutive month and inventory reduction accelerating. This data contributed to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a drop in the dollar [3] Sector-Specific Insights - AI demand is driving significant price increases in DRAM, with Samsung and SK Hynix planning to raise prices by 60%-70%. Strong demand for AI servers has led to Hon Hai's Q4 sales increasing by 22% year-on-year, with a notable 31.8% increase in December alone [3] - Nvidia's release of the new Rubin platform significantly reduces inference costs compared to the previous Blackwell platform, indicating advancements in AI technology [3] - The brain-machine interface industry may be approaching a critical commercialization turning point, with potential applications in medical rehabilitation, AI connectivity, and humanoid robot collaboration, as highlighted by Elon Musk's announcement regarding Neuralink's production timeline [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Asia IG names were unchanged to 2bps tighter in the morning, with flows favoring higher - yielding issues in greater Asia and LGFV spaces [3] - Macau's gaming industry had solid GGR growth in 2025, and the 2026 target seems conservative [6] - China's PMI signaled a temporary improvement, with expected GDP growth decline from 5% in 2025 to 4.8% in 2026, and potential policy stimulus [3][10][11][15] Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - ARAMCO 35s tightened 1bp, FABUH 30 widened 5bps last Friday [2] - Chinese IG names had spreads changes of 5bps tighter to 4bps wider, NWDEVL Perps rose 0.2 - 1.9pts, VDNWDL 9 Perp increased by 1.4pts [2] - The buy recommendation on NWDEVL 5.25 Perp and NWDEVL 8.675 02/06/28 was changed to neutral, and a buy on VDNWDL 9 Perp was initiated [2] - Lai Sun Development's Chairman made a profit of USD11.3mn from trading LASUDE 26, and LASUDE 26 was up by 0.8pt [2] - Various bonds in different regions and industries had price and spread changes, such as Macau gaming, Chinese properties, JP, and SE Asia [2] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top performers included VLLPM 9 3/8 07/29/29 with a 3.3 price change, NWDEVL 5 1/4 PERP with a 1.9 change [4] - Top underperformers included FTLNHD 11.88 09/30/27 with a - 0.9 change, COSL 2 1/2 06/24/30 with a - 0.9 change [4] Macro News Recap - S&P (+0.19%), Dow (+0.66%) and Nasdaq (-0.03%) were mixed last Friday, and Trump made a statement about Venezuela [5] - 5/10/30 year UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 year yield at 3.47%/3.74%/4.19%/4.86% [5] Desk Analyst Comments - Macau Gaming - Macau's GGR in Dec'25 increased 14.8% yoy to MOP20.9bn, and cumulatively in 2025, it increased 9.1% to MOP247.4bn, 84.6% of 2019 level [6] - In 2025, tourist arrival was 40.1mn, up 15% yoy and exceeding the 2019 record [6] - Macau government's 2026 GGR target of MOP236bn seems conservative [6] - MPELs and STCITYs are top picks, WYNMAC'27 and '29 are yield - pick - up plays, and neutral on MGMCHIs, SANLTDs, and SJMHOLs [7] Desk Analyst Comments - China Economy - China's manufacturing PMI rebounded in December but recovery was fragile due to seasonality [10][11][12] - Demand improved with new orders expanding and export orders approaching expansion, deflation pressure eased [10][11][12] - Service PMI remained in contraction, construction PMI rebounded [11][13] - Growth is expected to be under pressure in early 2026, potentially triggering policy stimulus [11][14][15] - Expect a 50bp cut in RRR and a 10bp cut in LPR in 1Q26, an additional 10bp LPR cut in 3Q26, and broad fiscal deficit at 8.5% in 2026 [11][14][15] Offshore Asia New Issues - No new offshore Asia issues were priced on the last trading day [17] - Pipeline issues include BOC Aviation, Export - Import Bank of India, and Hyundai Capital America with various tenors and coupon rates [18] News and Market Color - Onshore primary issuances suspended last Friday during the New Year Holiday [21] - China will broaden fiscal spending in 2026 and prioritize domestic demand [21] - Multiple corporate events such as China Jinmao's redemption, CTF Services' acquisition lapse, and rating changes [21]

Global Market Observation - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,338, up 2.76% for the day and 2.76% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index saw a significant increase of 4.00% [1] - The US markets showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.66% and the S&P 500 up 0.19%, while the Nasdaq slightly decreased by 0.03% [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index rose by 2.12%, while the Hang Seng Industrial Index increased by 3.27% [2] - The Hang Seng Property Index experienced a gain of 1.96% [2] Sector Performance Insights - Information technology, materials, and discretionary consumption sectors led the gains in the Hong Kong market, while utilities, staples, and real estate lagged [3] - The domestic semiconductor industry is undergoing a wave of mergers and acquisitions, indicating a strategic intent to strengthen supply chains and enhance core competitiveness [3] Consumer Trends - The New Year holiday consumption in China exceeded expectations, with 595 million people traveling, a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [3] - Sales in the duty-free market in Hainan during the holiday saw significant growth, with sales volume, shopping visits, and spending increasing by 52.4%, 60.6%, and 128.9% respectively [3] International Market Dynamics - European stocks rose significantly, while US stocks had modest gains, with energy, industrials, and materials leading the way [3] - The US military action in Venezuela slightly increased geopolitical and supply chain risks, impacting US market performance [3] Commodity Market Movements - Oil prices initially rose but later fell, with OPEC+ confirming no change in oil supply for the first quarter [3] - The IEA forecasts a surplus of 3.8 million barrels per day in the oil market by 2026 [3]

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,855, up 0.86% for the day and 28.89% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.74%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 24.85% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index remained unchanged at 3,965, with an 18.30% increase year-to-date [1] - The US markets showed slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.20% and the S&P 500 down 0.14% [1] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 0.44%, with a year-to-date rise of 40.32% [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index rose by 1.15%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 24.53% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index saw a modest increase of 0.34%, with an 18.61% rise year-to-date [2] Chinese Market Dynamics - Chinese stocks experienced a slight increase, with energy, materials, and information technology sectors leading gains, while healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples sectors declined [3] - Southbound capital recorded a net sell-off of HKD 3.845 billion, with Tencent, China Mobile, and Alibaba seeing the most significant net sell-offs [3] - The Chinese government announced tax exemptions on personal home sales after two years to stimulate market activity [3] US Market Insights - The US stock market experienced slight declines, particularly in consumer discretionary, financials, and industrials, while energy, communication services, and utilities sectors showed gains [3] - Tesla's market analysis indicated a potential 15% year-over-year decline in Q4 vehicle deliveries due to tax credit reductions and increased competition [3] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes suggested a consensus on potential interest rate cuts if inflation trends downward, although some members expressed concerns about persistent inflation risks [3] Commodity and Currency Movements - Metal prices showed mixed trends, with gold's gains narrowing and silver rebounding; copper prices reached their highest annual increase since 2009 [3] - Oil prices experienced a slight decline, while cryptocurrencies saw a pullback after initial gains [3] - The USD/CNY exchange rate fell to around 6.99 [3]

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,635, down 0.71% for the day but up 27.79% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 Index in the US closed at 6,906, down 0.35% for the day and up 17.41% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a slight increase of 0.04% to close at 3,965, with a year-to-date increase of 18.30% [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 49,089, down 0.36% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 39.71% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index decreased by 1.45% to 17,628, with a year-to-date increase of 18.21% [2] - The Hang Seng Utilities Index closed at 38,202, down 0.71% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 7.12% [2] Chinese Market Dynamics - Southbound capital recorded a net sell-off of 3.414 billion HKD, with major sell-offs in China Mobile, Alibaba, and Zijin Mining [3] - The A-share market saw declines in non-ferrous metals, utilities, and power equipment, while oil, defense, and banking sectors performed well [3] - The Chinese market regulatory authority announced plans to strengthen antitrust enforcement by 2026, targeting "involution" competition [3] US Market Insights - The US stock market experienced declines, particularly in materials, consumer discretionary, and financial sectors, while energy, real estate, and utilities outperformed [3] - Tesla faced significant setbacks due to delays in the Cybertruck project and a drastic reduction in battery material supply contracts, leading to a decline in its stock [3] - A Bloomberg survey indicated that institutional views on the S&P 500 for 2026 remain optimistic, with an average predicted increase of 9% [3] Debt and Credit Market Trends - US Treasury yields slightly decreased due to a rise in risk-averse demand [3] - Private credit assets in the US recorded their worst performance since 2020, with the Cliffwater BDC Index down approximately 6.6% year-to-date [3] - The demand for housing improved as the November pending home sales index rose by 3.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, marking the highest level since February 2023 [3]

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,819, showing a year-to-date increase of 28.71% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.10% to 3,964, with a year-to-date increase of 18.26% [1] - The US Dow Jones Index decreased by 0.04% to 48,711, with a year-to-date increase of 14.49% [1] - The Nikkei 225 in Japan increased by 0.68% to 50,750, with a year-to-date increase of 27.21% [1] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - The Hang Seng Financial Index remained unchanged at 49,269, with a year-to-date increase of 40.22% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index also remained unchanged at 17,887, with a year-to-date increase of 19.94% [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index stayed at 13,971, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 24.19% [2] Recent Market Trends - A-shares rose last Friday, led by non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, and steel, while electronics, light manufacturing, and communications lagged [3] - The USD/CNY exchange rate fell below 7.0, with expectations of further decline to 6.95 in the first half of next year [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Finance plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies in 2026 to support consumer spending [3] - The Bank of Japan's December meeting minutes indicated a need for gradual interest rate hikes to avoid falling behind inflation [3] US Market Insights - US stocks experienced low trading volume post-Christmas, with materials, information technology, and healthcare sectors rising, while consumer discretionary, energy, and financial sectors fell [3] - Gold and silver prices surged significantly, influenced by margin requirement adjustments for futures contracts [3] - Cryptocurrency markets saw a decline as US investors sold off to offset tax liabilities from stock gains [3]

2025 年 12 月 24 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 每日投资策略 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 25,774 | -0.11 | 28.49 | | 恒生国企 | 8,914 | -0.29 | 22.28 | | 恒生科技 | 5,489 | -0.69 | 22.85 | | 上证综指 | 3,920 | 0.07 | 16.95 | | 深证综指 | 2,492 | -0.02 | 27.32 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,205 | 0.41 | 49.65 | | 美国道琼斯 | 48,442 | 0.16 | 13.86 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,910 | 0.46 | 17.48 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,562 | 0.57 | 22.01 | | 德国 DAX | 24,340 | 0.23 | 22.26 ...

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,802, up 0.43% for the day and 28.62% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,917, up 0.69% for the day and 16.87% year-to-date [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 2,493, up 1.13% for the day and 27.35% year-to-date [1] - The US Dow Jones closed at 48,363, up 0.47% for the day and 13.68% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 closed at 6,878, up 0.64% for the day and 16.95% year-to-date [1] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, materials, consumer staples, and energy sectors led the gains, while healthcare, conglomerates, and telecommunications lagged [3] - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 48,788, up 0.52% for the day and 38.85% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index closed at 14,047, up 0.41% for the day and 24.87% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index closed at 17,759, down 0.08% for the day and 19.08% year-to-date [2] Capital Flows - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 3.13 billion HKD, with notable net purchases in SMIC, Xiaomi, and Tencent [3] - Major net sell-offs were observed in China Mobile, Alibaba, and Pop Mart [3] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has kept the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for seven consecutive months, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 20 basis points in Q1 and Q3 of next year [3] - The Ministry of Commerce announced temporary anti-subsidy measures on dairy products imported from the EU [3] International Market Insights - The US stock market saw gains in materials, financials, and industrials, while consumer staples, information technology, and utilities underperformed [3] - Nvidia made significant adjustments to its cloud business strategy, focusing on internal demand for chips rather than external sales [3] - Tesla reached a new historical high during trading [3] Interest Rates and Commodities - US Treasury yields rose, with weak demand observed in the two-year bond auction [3] - The dollar index retreated, while gold, silver, and copper reached historical highs [3] - Oil prices increased due to the US blocking Venezuelan oil exports [3]

2025 年 12 月 22 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 医药 - 估值与业绩的重新平衡 估值与业绩的重新平衡 MSCI 中国医疗指数 2025 年初至今累计上涨 51.9%，跑赢 MSCI 中国指数 24.3%。 近期，医药板块有所回调（MSCI 中国医疗指数 10 月至今回调 14%）。我们认为， 近期的回调主要是估值与预期的消化与再平衡，这将为后续投资创造更优的布局窗 口。展望 2026 年，创新药出海趋势长期将延续，我们将重点关注已出海管线的临床 进展与数据兑现这一核心催化。政策端方面，《生物安全法案》虽已签署生效，但 鉴于其未波及 Medicaid 和 Medicare 的采购且对关联方定义明确，以及中国 CXO 美 国行政机构收入占比较小，我们预计该法案对中国 CXO 企业实质经营影响有限。 估值表 中国 医药 行业 武 煜, CFA (852) 3900 0842 jillwu@cmbi.com.hk 王云逸 (852) 3916 1729 cathywang@cmbi.com.hk 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 htt ...