Trading desk comments 交易台市场观点 CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update 固定收益部市场日报 Yesterday, we saw balanced two-way flows on recent new issues PINGIN 35/CKHH 30/MITSET 30. MEITUA widened 1bp amid two-way flows. We saw better buying on Chinese/Japanese/Middle Eastern financial FRNs because of cash-parking demand. The rest of Asia IG space was unchanged to a tough tighter. We saw some PB selling HYSAN Perps amid the latest NWDEVL headlines. HYSAN 4.85 and 7.2 Perps were unchanged to 0.1pt lower ...

Macro Commentary - Global stock markets showed positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.89% and year-to-date growth of 32.72% [1] - The Chinese stock market experienced an increase, driven by a recovery in investor risk appetite, particularly in materials, consumer discretionary, and financial sectors [3] - The U.S. stock market continued to rise, led by consumer discretionary, information technology, and financial sectors, despite concerns over high valuations expressed by the Federal Reserve Chairman [3] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 1.98% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Industrial Index rose by 1.91% [2] - The A-share market saw significant gains in non-bank financials, metals, and electrical equipment, while coal and consumer services sectors declined [3] Economic Outlook - The fourth quarter strategy suggests a balanced approach, favoring stocks, commodities, and non-USD currencies while being bearish on bonds and the dollar [4] - The U.S. economy is experiencing slight stagflation, with expectations of a steepening yield curve due to potential Federal Reserve interventions [4] - The report indicates a weak recovery in the Chinese economy, with potential improvements in deflationary pressures [4] Investment Strategy - Recommendations include an overweight allocation in currencies (20%), with specific allocations to USD (10.5%), EUR (4%), and GBP (2.5%), while underweighting JPY [4] - For bonds, a standard allocation of 22.5% is suggested, with an overweight in UK bonds (2%) and emerging market bonds (5%) [4] - The stock allocation is recommended at 30%, with a focus on European (4.3%), UK (2.5%), and Chinese stocks (3.5%), while underweighting U.S. (17%) and Japanese stocks (1%) [4] Sector Analysis - Defensive sectors such as telecommunications and utilities underperformed, while cyclical sectors led the gains [3] - The report highlights the ongoing AI technology revolution, which is stimulating corporate capital expenditure despite weak job growth in developed countries [3]

2025 年 9 月 29 日 招银国际环球市场 |宏观策略 | 大类资产配置 第四季度策略 Market Strategy - 更加均衡 更加均衡 第四季度看多股票、商品和非美货币，看空债券和美元，建议资产组合和区域 配置更加均衡。美国经济小幅滞涨，白宫对美联储干预和美联储降息令收益率 曲线陡峭化，利空美元与美债，利好股票与商品。欧元区经济好于预期，通胀 止跌走平，国债收益率回升。英国经济放缓，通胀居高，利率远期有下降空 间。日本经济放缓，通胀回落，但加息可能延续。中国经济弱复苏，通缩可能 改善，国债收益率回升。 资料来源：彭博，招银国际环球市场 0 10 20 30 40 50 美元货基 英镑货基 欧元货基 日元货基 人民币货基 全球投资级债 美国投资级债 美国高收益债 其他投资级债 新兴市场债 MSCI全球 MSCI美国 MSCI英国 MSCI欧元区 MSCI日本 MSCI中国 黄金 比特币 铜 原油 2025YTD收益(%) 商品 股票 债券 货基 图 1: 年初以来各大类资产收益(美元计价) 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 刘泽晖 (8 ...

2025 年 9 月 29 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业、公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,128 | -1.35 | 30.25 | | 恒生国企 | 9,303 | -1.49 | 27.62 | | 恒生科技 | 6,195 | -2.89 | 38.65 | | 上证综指 | 3,828 | -0.65 | 14.21 | | 深证综指 | 2,471 | -1.54 | 26.22 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,152 | -2.60 | 47.16 | | 美国道琼斯 | 46,247 | 0.65 | 8.70 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,644 | 0.59 | 12.96 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,484 | 0.44 | 16.43 | | 德国 DAX | 23,739 | 0.87 | 19.24 ...

2025 年 9 月 29 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 药明康德 (603259 CH) 药明康德 (603259 CH) - 投资者日：TIDES 势头延续，早期研发初现回暖 药明康德举办了投资者日活动，我们认为此次会议的要点如下：1）TIDES 业务 发展势头不变，产能扩张迅速、管线储备丰富；2）早期研发显现进一步复苏的 信号，将拉动占公司总收入约 1/3 的早期业务收入的增长；3）精细化运营助力 公司在面对宏观不确定性以及进行全球产能扩张的同时保持有韧性的盈利能力。 | 财务资料 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (截至 12 月 31 日) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | | 销售收入 (百万人民币) | 40,341 | 39,241 | 43,981 | 50,952 | 58,999 | | 同比增长 (%) | 2.5 | (2.7) | 12.1 | 15.9 | 15.8 | | 调整后净利润 (百万人民币) | 10,854 | 10,583 | ...

2025 年 9 月 29 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 中国医药 - 预期中美创新合作将持续，国内创新研发需求回暖 MSCI 中国医疗指数 2025 年初至今累计上涨 74.0%，跑赢 MSCI 中国指数 37.3%。由于资本市场融资复苏、创新药出海交易规模上涨，国内创新药研发需 求出现回暖。我们注意到，创新药研发所需的实验猴的中标价格已经从 2024 年 中的约 8.5 万元回升至约 9 万元。叠加美国降息，CXO 行业有望在 2H25E 迎来 业绩修复。 估值表 | | | | | 市值 目标价 | 上行/ | P/E (x) | | P/B (x) | | ROE (%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司名称 | 股份代码 | 评级 | (百万美元) | | | | (LC) 下行空间 FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | | | | 三生制药 | 1530 HK | 买入 | 9,091.4 | ...

Market Overview - The global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.53% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 1.94%, reflecting a year-to-date gain of 42.77% [1][3] - The US stock markets experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.94% and the S&P 500 decreasing by 1.33%, while the Nasdaq dropped by 1.77% [1][3] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, materials, information technology, and healthcare sectors led the gains, while consumer staples, real estate, and financial sectors lagged [3] - The A-share market saw gains in media, communication, and non-ferrous metals, while textiles, agriculture, and comprehensive sectors underperformed [3] Company Insights - Xiaomi Group launched its flagship Xiaomi 17 smartphone, priced at 4,499 RMB, which is competitive compared to the iPhone 17 priced at 5,999 RMB, highlighting Xiaomi's strategy to position itself against Apple [4] - The company aims to enhance its ecosystem with new IoT products and electric vehicle services, indicating a focus on high-end market segments [4] - Xiaomi's target price is set at 62.96 HKD, reflecting a 26.3 times expected P/E ratio for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5] Investment Recommendations - Geely Automobile is rated "Buy" with a target price of 25.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 37% [5] - Luckin Coffee is also rated "Buy" with a target price of 44.95 USD, suggesting a 19% upside [5] - Tencent and Alibaba are both rated "Buy," with target prices of 705.00 HKD and 158.80 USD respectively, indicating potential upsides of 9% and N/A [5]

2025 年 9 月 25 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,519 | -0.10 | 32.20 | | 恒生国企 | 9,443 | -0.31 | 29.54 | | 恒生科技 | 6,323 | 0.46 | 41.52 | | 上证综指 | 3,854 | 0.88 | 14.97 | | 深证综指 | 2,506 | 1.33 | 28.00 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,186 | 3.06 | 48.75 | | 美国道琼斯 | 46,121 | -0.42 | 8.41 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,638 | -0.40 | 12.86 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,498 | -0.59 | 16.50 | | 德国 DAX | 23,667 | 0.12 | 18.87 | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry is expected to perform better than the market benchmark over the next 12 months [26]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing growth and demand in the AI and cloud sectors in China, particularly highlighted during Alibaba's 2025 Cloud Conference, where the company announced significant infrastructure expansion and a focus on AI capabilities [1][4]. - Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth is expected to accelerate due to the release of seven new AI models, which enhance various capabilities and support the company's strategic goals [5][6]. - The report suggests a positive long-term investment outlook for the Chinese internet and software sectors, driven by advancements in AI and cloud infrastructure [1]. Summary by Sections AI Model Developments - Alibaba introduced seven new AI models at the Cloud Conference, including Qwen3-Max, which ranks third in the Chatbot Arena and demonstrates strong coding and agent tool capabilities [4][6]. - The Qwen3-Next model series is designed for scalability, reducing training costs by over 90% and improving long-text reasoning throughput by more than ten times [13]. - The Qwen3-Coder model has shown significant improvements in programming tasks, while the Qwen3-VL model excels in visual understanding and multimodal reasoning [15][16]. Infrastructure Enhancements - Alibaba Cloud's AI computing power has increased over five times in the past year, with storage capacity growing by over four times [16]. - The introduction of the Panjiu 128 super-node AI server supports various AI chips and enhances performance by 50% compared to traditional architectures [21]. - The new high-performance network HPN 8.0 supports efficient interconnection of up to 100,000 GPUs, significantly boosting storage network bandwidth [21]. Market Outlook - The report highlights structural opportunities in the Chinese internet software sector, with Alibaba's stock expected to see a potential upside of over 15% in the next 12 months [25]. - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with expectations of continued growth in AI and cloud services, positioning Alibaba and similar companies favorably for future investments [1][4].

公司首发 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,159 | -0.70 | 30.40 | | 恒生国企 | 9,290 | -0.86 | 27.44 | | 恒生科技 | 6,167 | -1.45 | 38.02 | | 上证综指 | 3,822 | -0.18 | 14.02 | | 深证综指 | 2,467 | -0.78 | 26.03 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,115 | 0.21 | 45.43 | | 美国道琼斯 | 46,382 | 0.00 | 9.02 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,694 | 0.00 | 13.81 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,789 | 0.00 | 18.01 | | 德国 DAX | 23,709 | 0.77 | 19.08 | | 法国 CAC | 7,907 | 0.98 | 7.13 | | 英国富时 100 | 9 ...