More positive on FY25E after 1Q25 beat Maintain BUY. Leapmotor's 1Q25 net loss of RMB130mn beat our prior forecasts on higher average selling price (ASP) and GPM, as well as unexpected contribution from the strategic cooperation. We believe its cost reduction efforts, driven by its undervalued in-house R&D capabilities, have started to be reflected by its 1Q25 GPM and could be even more apparent after all the models are shifted to the Leap 3.5 architecture in mid-2025. We raise our FY25E sales volume foreca ...

20五月2025 盈利/估值。 我们将2025财年净利润预测从-9800万元上调至11800万元。 我们同样认为，理想汽车在2026财年将实现更显著利润增长。基于近期改善的 市场情绪以及理想汽车盈利前景的提升，我们维持买入评级，并将目标价从50. 00港元上调至72.00港元（基于1.5倍2025财年市销率，此前为1.3倍）。我们 对评级和目标价的主要风险包括销量和/或利润率低于预期，以及行业降级。 收益总结 | (YE 31 Dec) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入（人民币百万） | 16,747 | 32,164 | 58,993 | 63,046 | 67,905 | | 同比增长率 (%) | 35.2 | 92.1 | 83.4 | 6.9 | 7.7 | | 毛利率 (%) | 0.5 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 12.8 | | 营业利润（人民币百万元） | (4,377.4) | (3,171.1) | (404.7) | 206.8 | 3 ...

2025 年 5 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观、行业点评及公司首发 全球市场观察 宏观点评 美国经济 - 关税削弱信心与需求 美国 4 月零售与制造业产出大幅放缓，显示关税冲击的影响已从消费者信心 和 PMI 等软数据传导至消费和工业产出等硬数据。汽车、家具家装、电子产 品等耐用品零售显著放缓。非耐用品零售低迷，运动文娱商品、服装和杂货 店等环比转跌。 但 4 月以来首次与持续领取失业金人数仍然平稳，裁员水平未见大幅提高， 因为关税主要影响制造业，对服务业影响相对较小，服务业就业依然稳健。 预计 5-8 月通胀可能短期反弹，失业率仍在低位，美联储将保持利率不变。 随着需求收缩效应逐渐抵消成本上升作用，通胀可能在 9 月前后见顶开始回 落。美联储可能在 9 月降息一次，11 月或 12 月再降一次。（链接） 1 上周五（5 月 16 日）中国股市继续回调。投资者观望情绪上升，因关税冲击 可能通过信心渠道导致房地产和消费放缓，延缓企业盈利复苏进程，但在 90 天经贸谈判窗口期内实施增量财政刺激与消费提振政策的可能性较低。港股 可选消费、能源与地产建筑领跌，医疗保健 ...

Economic Overview - In April, U.S. retail and manufacturing output significantly slowed, indicating the impact of tariffs on consumer confidence and demand[1] - Retail sales for durable goods, such as automobiles and furniture, showed a marked decline, while non-durable goods retail also weakened[1] - The unemployment rate remains low, with initial jobless claims at 229,000, consistent with market expectations, and continuing claims slightly rising to 1.881 million[2] Inflation and Federal Reserve Outlook - Inflation is expected to rebound in the short term from May to August, but the unemployment rate is projected to remain low, leading the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged[2] - Inflation may peak around September and start to decline thereafter, with potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in September and possibly again in November or December[1][2] Retail Performance - April retail and food service sales showed a seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth of 0.1%, slightly above the market expectation of 0%[5] - Durable goods consumption, particularly in automotive, fell from a growth of 5.5% in March to -0.1% in April, while non-durable goods like sports and clothing saw declines of -2.5% and -0.4% respectively[5] Manufacturing Output - Industrial production remained flat in April, slightly below the expected 0.1% increase, with manufacturing output declining by 0.4%[5] - Key sectors such as electrical lighting and medical equipment saw declines of 3.4% and 2.2%, while aerospace and semiconductor production grew by 1% and 2% respectively[5]

Company Analysis - Alibaba (BABA US) reported total revenue of 236.5 billion RMB for 4QFY25, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, aligning with expectations [2] - Adjusted EBITA reached 32.6 billion RMB, up 36% year-on-year, driven by improved profitability across all business segments [2] - The company is optimistic about the Taobao Group's steady profit growth in 1QFY26, supported by increased commission rates and healthy GMV growth [2] - Alibaba's cloud and AI sectors are identified as key strategic growth areas for the coming years [2] - NetEase (NTES US) reported a total revenue of 28.8 billion RMB for 1Q25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7%, which met market expectations [7] - Operating profit increased by 37% to 10.4 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations by 25%, primarily due to effective control of operating expenses [7] - The gaming segment showed a 12% year-on-year revenue growth, surpassing market forecasts, indicating a recovery in growth momentum [7] - Beike (BEKE US) achieved a revenue of 23.3 billion RMB in 1Q25, a 42% year-on-year increase, outperforming market expectations [7] - The company reported a significant increase in transaction volumes for both existing and new homes, with respective year-on-year growth of 28% and 53% [7] - However, concerns arose from the company's cautious guidance for 2Q25, projecting a revenue of approximately 26 billion RMB, representing a 12% year-on-year increase [7] - Geely Automobile (175 HK) reported a net profit of 5.7 billion RMB for 1Q25, in line with previous profit forecasts [8] - The company achieved a 25% year-on-year revenue growth, with a notable improvement in cost control reflected in a 12% decrease in selling and administrative expenses [9] - Geely's overall performance is bolstered by the strong profitability of its Zeekr brand, which achieved a historical high gross margin of 21.2% in 1Q25 [9] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,641, up 2.30% for the day and 38.68% year-to-date [4] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.13%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 42.97% [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.86%, with a year-to-date growth of 14.42% [4] - The US markets showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.21% and the S&P 500 up 0.10% [6]

Economic Overview - The April CPI inflation in the U.S. was lower than market expectations, indicating that the impact of tariffs has not fully materialized[2] - CPI and core CPI year-on-year growth rates are expected to rise from 2.3% and 2.8% in April to 3.1% and 3.3% in August, before slightly declining to 2.7% and 3.1% in December[3] Tariff Impact - The inflationary impact of tariffs is projected to peak in the third quarter, with short-term cost-push effects outweighing demand contraction effects[3] - Core CPI showed a slight rebound, with core services growth declining to a near four-year low, indicating mixed inflationary pressures[6] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates steady in June and July, with potential rate cuts in September and again in November or December[2][3] - The demand contraction effects are expected to increase post-September, leading to a slowdown in the job market and a potential decline in inflation[3] Price Trends - Food prices have shown a significant drop, with household food prices decreasing from 0.5% to -0.4% in April, while energy prices rebounded slightly[6] - Core goods prices are expected to recover starting in May due to the gradual realization of tariff impacts on import prices[6]

Macro Economic Overview - The US economy is experiencing a delay in the impact of tariffs, with April CPI inflation lower than market expectations. Concerns about inflation rebound persist, with food prices declining and energy prices recovering due to a smaller drop in gasoline prices [2] - Core CPI showed a slight rebound, with core goods rebounding modestly and core services, particularly hotel and airline ticket prices, seeing reduced declines. The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to rise initially before declining, while falling oil prices may partially offset tariff effects [2] - CPI and core CPI year-on-year growth rates are projected to rise from April's 2.3% and 2.8% to 3.1% and 3.3% in August, before slightly decreasing to 2.7% and 3.1% in December. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in June and July, with potential rate cuts in September and November or December [2] Company Analysis Tencent (700 HK) - Tencent reported 1Q25 results with total revenue growing 13% year-on-year to RMB 180 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 3%. Strong growth in gaming and marketing revenues contributed significantly [5] - Non-IFRS net profit increased by 22% year-on-year to RMB 61.3 billion, also surpassing consensus by 3%, driven by strong revenue performance and improved gross margins [5] - The target price for Tencent has been raised to HKD 660 from HKD 625, reflecting an optimistic outlook on AI development supporting growth across various business lines [5] JD.com (JD US) - JD.com reported 1Q25 revenue of RMB 301.1 billion, a 15.8% year-on-year increase, exceeding expectations by 3-4%. Non-GAAP net profit rose 43% year-on-year to RMB 12.8 billion, surpassing expectations by 18-23% [5] - The company is increasing investments in its food delivery business to drive nationwide expansion and enhance user engagement among high-quality customer segments [5] - The target price remains at USD 55 per ADS, with a slight increase in revenue forecasts but a 10% decrease in non-GAAP net profit projections for 2025 due to increased investment in the food delivery segment [5] Nuocheng Jianhua (9969 HK) - Nuocheng Jianhua reported strong 1Q25 results with sales of Obutin increasing by 89% year-on-year to RMB 311 million, primarily driven by growth in marginal zone lymphoma (MZL) [6] - The company has raised its sales growth target for Obutin from 30% to over 35% for FY25, supported by the anticipated contribution from MZL and the recent approval for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) [6] - The company holds RMB 7.8 billion in cash reserves, providing ample support for future R&D investments [6] Industry Focus - The report highlights a positive outlook for the automotive sector, with companies like Geely and Xpeng receiving "Buy" ratings and target price increases, indicating strong growth potential in the electric vehicle market [10] - The consumer discretionary sector, including companies like Anta Sports and Luckin Coffee, is also noted for its growth potential, with several companies maintaining "Buy" ratings and significant target price upside [10] - The healthcare sector, particularly companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics, is recognized for its robust pipeline and potential for significant market impact, with "Buy" ratings reflecting confidence in their growth trajectories [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the AI infrastructure supply chain, indicating a potential return exceeding 15% over the next 12 months [18]. Core Insights - The report highlights that major tech giants, including Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft, have shown strong capital expenditure (capex) growth, reaching $73 billion in Q1 2025, a 63% year-over-year increase [1][2]. - Meta has significantly raised its capex guidance from $60-65 billion to $64-72 billion, reflecting a 73% increase compared to 2024 [2]. - The AI infrastructure supply chain is experiencing substantial investment from large-scale computing firms, with capex intensity reaching 20.3% in Q1 2025, up from 13.8% in Q1 2024 [3]. Summary by Sections Capital Expenditure Trends - The four major tech companies are expected to continue increasing their capital expenditures, with projections for Q2 2025 indicating a 48% year-over-year growth, reaching approximately $78.6 billion [1]. - The overall capex for 2025 is anticipated to exceed $319 billion, representing a 39% increase compared to the previous year [1][2]. AI Infrastructure Investment - The report emphasizes the ongoing investment in AI infrastructure, with Amazon's AI business revenue reaching hundreds of billions and a triple-digit growth rate [3]. - The report notes that 85% of global IT infrastructure is still on-premises, suggesting a significant opportunity for cloud services to grow in the next 10-20 years [3]. Domestic Beneficiaries - Key domestic beneficiaries of this trend include Yingli Technology (300308 CH, Buy), Yitexun (300502 CH, Hold), and TFC (300394 CH, Hold), which are expected to experience strong growth due to the increasing demand for AI infrastructure [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI infrastructure supply chain, particularly for companies like Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH, Buy, target price: RMB 151) [2][5]. Core Insights - The four major cloud service providers (Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft) reported strong capital expenditures in Q1 2025, totaling $72.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 63% [2][5]. - The capital expenditures for these companies are projected to exceed $319 billion for the year, reflecting a 39% year-on-year growth [2][5]. - Meta has raised its capital expenditure guidance from $60-65 billion to $64-72 billion, indicating a significant increase of 73% compared to 2024 [5]. - The AI infrastructure supply chain is expected to benefit from the large-scale investments by major cloud service providers, with no signs of a slowdown [5]. Summary by Sections Capital Expenditure Trends - The total capital expenditure of the four major cloud service providers reached a historical high of $72.8 billion in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 68% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 22% [2][5]. - The capital expenditure ratio for these providers reached 20.3% of their revenue in Q1, compared to 13.8% in the same period last year [5]. AI Investment Outlook - The report expresses optimism regarding the ongoing commercialization of AI, with Amazon's AI business achieving annualized sales in the billions and a year-on-year growth rate exceeding three digits [5]. - The global IT landscape still has 85% of its infrastructure on-premises, with only 15% in the cloud, indicating significant potential for future growth in cloud services and AI chip demand [5]. Key Beneficiaries - Domestic beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure investment include Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH, Buy), Xinyi Sheng (300502 CH, Not Rated), and Tianfu Communication (300394 CH, Not Rated) [5].

Group 1: Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry shows strong resilience in capital expenditures from major overseas cloud providers, with a combined capital expenditure of $73 billion in Q1 2025, representing a 63% year-on-year increase [2] - The outlook for 2025 remains optimistic, with expectations for capital expenditures to exceed $319 billion, a 39% year-on-year growth [2] - The recent reduction in tariffs between the US and China is seen as a positive signal for the Chinese technology supply chain, particularly benefiting consumer electronics companies like Apple [2][6] Group 2: Company Analysis - Tencent Music reported Q1 2025 earnings that met expectations, with total revenue growing by 9% year-on-year to $7.36 billion, and non-IFRS net profit increasing by 25% to $2.12 billion [6] - The company is expected to see revenue and non-IFRS net profit growth of 12% and 23% respectively in Q2 2025, leading to an upward revision of FY25-27 earnings forecasts by 0-6% [6] - The target price for Tencent Music has been raised by 6% to $17.5, reflecting confidence in its competitive position and business model despite macroeconomic uncertainties [6] Group 3: Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include BYD Electronics, AAC Technologies, Luxshare, and FIT Hon Teng, all of which are expected to benefit from the favorable tariff environment and strong demand in the technology sector [6][7] - Specific target prices and potential upside for these stocks have been outlined, with BYD Electronics having a target price of $43.22, representing a 23% upside [7] - Other notable recommendations include Alibaba, Tencent, and Kuaishou, all rated as "Buy" with significant potential upside based on current valuations [7]