Economic Overview - The US GDP growth is projected to decline from 2.8% last year to 1.7% in 2025, with a slight recovery to 1.8% in 2026[7] - China's GDP growth is expected to improve from 4.6% in Q3 2024 to 5.4% in Q1 2025, but may drop to 4.7% in Q4 2025 due to various economic pressures[46] Inflation and Monetary Policy - US PCE inflation is anticipated to rise from 2.4% in Q2 to 2.9% in Q4 2025, before decreasing to 2.4% in 2026[9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice in late 2024, bringing the policy rate down to 3.25%-3.5%[4] Asset Allocation Strategies - In the US, the recommended asset allocation includes overweighting commodities, standard allocation to stocks and cash, and underweighting bonds, with a bearish outlook on the dollar[4] - In China, the strategy suggests overweighting stocks, standard allocation to commodities and bonds, and underweighting cash, with a moderate appreciation of the RMB expected[5] Market Trends - The US stock market is entering a late bull market phase, with a focus on sectors like healthcare, consumer staples, and industrials[4] - China's stock market is in the second phase of a bull market, with a focus on AI hardware, internet, and healthcare sectors[5] Debt and Consumer Behavior - The US consumer loan delinquency rate has reached historical highs, indicating increased financial pressure on low- and middle-income households[12] - China's household and corporate credit growth remains weak, despite an expansionary fiscal policy[87] Real Estate Insights - The US housing market continues to experience stagnation, with home sales and prices at historical lows due to high interest rates[15] - In China, the real estate market is showing signs of recovery, but new home sales in major cities are still lagging[55] Currency Outlook - The US dollar index is expected to weaken slightly, potentially dropping to 95 by year-end due to pressures from the White House on the Federal Reserve[42] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is projected to be around 7.1 by the end of this year, with a slight appreciation of the RMB expected in 2026[88]

2025 年 9 月 16 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,447 | 0.22 | 31.84 | | 恒生国企 | 9,385 | 0.21 | 28.74 | | 恒生科技 | 6,044 | 0.91 | 35.26 | | 上证综指 | 3,861 | -0.26 | 15.18 | | 深证综指 | 2,471 | 0.36 | 26.26 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,066 | 1.52 | 43.17 | | 美国道琼斯 | 45,883 | 0.11 | 7.85 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,615 | 0.47 | 12.47 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,349 | 0.94 | 15.73 | | 德国 DAX | 23,749 | 0.21 | 19.29 | | 法国 ...

Inflation Trends - The August CPI showed a significant rebound, with a month-on-month increase from 0.2% in July to 0.38% in August, slightly above the market expectation of 0.33%[5] - Year-on-year CPI growth rose from 2.7% to 2.9%, indicating a return to an upward trend[5] - Core CPI month-on-month growth increased from 0.32% to 0.35%, also exceeding market expectations of 0.31%[5] Employment Concerns - The number of first-time unemployment claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 235,000[6] - The projected increase in employment from April 2024 to March 2025 was revised down by 91,100, with average monthly job growth adjusted from 136,000 to 60,000[6] - The risk of employment deterioration is now seen as greater than the risk of uncontrolled inflation, leading to an 81% probability of three rate cuts this year[1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates twice, in September and December, totaling a 50 basis point reduction, with the year-end target for the federal funds rate set at 3.75%-4%[1] - Further rate cuts are anticipated next year, potentially bringing the year-end target down to 3.25%-3.5% as economic growth stabilizes and inflation recedes[1]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fixed - income market shows mixed performance. New issues generally tightened, while the secondary IG space was largely unchanged. Greater China high - beta credits were mostly stable, and there were price movements in various bonds across different regions [2]. - LGFVs had a mixed performance, with demand for higher - grade USD issues but lackluster performance for higher - yielding names due to supply jams. Trading volumes were thin ahead of US consumer inflation data [3]. Section Summaries Market Performance - **Yesterday's Performance**: The new NSINTW 5 7/8 03/17/41 tightened up to 15bps from RO at T + 185 and closed 10bps tighter. Other TW lifers CATLIFs/SHIKON/FUBON closed 1 - 2bps tighter. The new KHFC 3 7/8 09/17/30 and the new KOMATS 4.196 30 tightened 2 - 3bps. Secondary IG space was largely unchanged. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29s were down 0.5pt, and GRNLGR 28 - 31s were 0.3 - 0.5pt lower. LNGFOR 28 - 32s were 0.2 - 0.3pt higher. Japanese insurance hybrids and AT1s were up 0.3pt, and their Yankee counterparts were 0.1pt firmer. The new SMPHPM 4.75 09/16/30 was 0.1pt higher than RO at 99.8. PTTGC 51 - 52s tightened 1 - 13bps [2]. - **This Morning's Performance**: The new NSINTW 5 7/8 03/17/41 tightened another 7bps. The rest of TW lifers CATLIFs/SHIKON/FUBON were 2 - 5bps tighter. The recent HYUELE 28 - 30s were 1 - 2bps tighter. BBLTB sub - curve tightened 5bps. The recent MUFG Perp/SUMILIF 55/FUKOKU rose 0.5 - 1pt. HYSAN 7.2 PERP was up 0.5pt. TOPTBs were unchanged [4]. - **Top Performers and Underperformers**: Top performers included CCAMCL 5 02/08/48 (up 3.0), FAEACO 12.814 PERP (up 2.9), etc. Top underperformers included BIMLVN 7 3/8 05/07/26 (down 0.7), VNKRLE 3 1/2 11/12/29 (down 0.5), etc. [5] Macro News - On Thursday, S&P (+0.85%), Dow (+1.36%) and Nasdaq (+0.72%) were higher. The US Aug'25 Core CPI was +0.3% mom, and the US CPI was +2.9% yoy, both in line with market expectations. The US Aug'25 CPI was +0.4% mom, higher than the market expectation. The US Initial Jobless Claims was +263k, higher than the prediction. UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.52%/3.59%/4.01%/4.65% [7]. Company - Specific Analysis (HYSAN) - Hysan raised junior subordinated 5NC2 notes of USD17mn, rated Ba1 by Moody's, callable at 103.375 in Sep'27, with a coupon rate of 6.75% and deferrable and cumulative coupon [8]. - The small private placement is to build a cushion of junior securities to keep the rating of HYSAN 7.2 PERP at IG. In 1H25, Hysan's turnover and EBIITDA grew 2.1% and 1.4% yoy to HKD1.7bn and HKD1.3bn respectively. Occupancy rates of retail/office/residential were 94%/92%/70% as of Jun'25. Its liquidity profile is solid with cash to ST debts at 2.3x, and it has a capital recycling plan of HKD8bn over the next 5 years. The net gearing ratio (perp as debt) was 33% as of Jun'25 [9][10]. - Analysts are neutral on HYSANs on valuation but consider HYSAN 7.2 PERP to offer the best risk - return profile compared to other Hysan bonds [11]. New Issues - There were no offshore Asia new issues priced or in the pipeline on the reporting day [12][13]. - Regarding onshore primary issuances, 101 credit bonds were issued yesterday with an amount of RMB160bn. Month - to - date, 658 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB638bn, representing an 18.6% yoy increase [15]. Other News - Adani and Vedanta are bidders for bankrupt GVK Energy. Alibaba uses its own microprocessors for AI model training. BHP will divest a 15% stake in iron ore deposit. Evergrande's property management arm received non - binding bids. Fosun signed a USD910mn sustainability - linked syndicated loan. Meituan plans to issue dim sum bonds. POSCO International signed a deal for LNG import. Pertamina plans subsidiary reorganization. PTT Global Chemical issued USD1.1bn unsecured subordinated perp. Reliance boosted asset - backed notes size. Yuexiu Property signed a HKD200mn term loan facility agreement [15].

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,086, down 0.43% for the day but up 30.04% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.65% to 3,875, with a year-to-date increase of 15.62% [1] - The US markets saw the Dow Jones increase by 1.36% to 46,108, with a year-to-date gain of 8.38% [1] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the healthcare, energy, and consumer discretionary sectors led the decline, while materials, utilities, and industrials saw gains [3] - The semiconductor and rare metals sectors performed notably well, with significant inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 189.89 billion [3] Economic Indicators - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained interest rates and revised down its inflation forecast for 2027 to 1.9% [3] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, aligning with market expectations [3] Investment Recommendations - Geely Automobile is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HKD 25.00, representing a potential upside of 33% [4] - Luckin Coffee is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of USD 44.95, indicating a 19% upside [4] - Semiconductor companies like Horizon Robotics and Beike Micro are rated as "Buy" with target prices of HKD 12.30 and HKD 93.00, respectively, showing potential upsides of 19% and 76% [4]

Macro Analysis - The CPI in China fell to -0.4% YoY in August due to a sharp decline in food prices, while the core CPI rose to 0.9% YoY [2][5] - PPI's YoY decline narrowed to -2.9%, indicating a potential recovery in upstream material prices [5] - The continuation of deflation is expected to prompt further policy actions, with a focus on countering "involution" [2][5] Industry Insights - The technology sector saw significant developments with Apple's recent product launch, including the iPhone 17 series and AirPods Pro 3, which are expected to drive a replacement cycle [6] - The pricing strategy for Apple's new products was better than market fears, with most prices remaining stable except for a $100 increase on the iPhone Pro [6] - The demand for AI-related products remains strong, as evidenced by TSMC's sales growth of 33.8% YoY in August [5][6] Stock Recommendations - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 25.00, representing a 37% upside potential [7] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 44.95, indicating a 21% upside [7] - Tencent (700 HK) and Alibaba (BABA US) are both rated as "Buy" with target prices of 705.00 and 158.80 respectively, showing potential upsides of 11% and 10% [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,938, up 1.19% year-to-date, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51% [1][3] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 10.231 billion, indicating strong interest in Hong Kong stocks [3] - Commodities displayed divergence, with precious metals, coal, and steel prices rising, while chemicals and agricultural products declined [3] Group 2: Company Analysis - 康方生物 (Summit) - 康方生物's AK112 showed improved overall survival (OS) data in long-term follow-up, with a median OS of 16.8 months compared to 14.0 months for chemotherapy alone, indicating a positive trend [6][7] - The company is expected to present further OS data from the HARMONi-2 study in the next six months, which could enhance investor confidence [6][7] - The target price for 康方生物 is maintained at HKD 182.12, reflecting a strong outlook for its first-line indications in NSCLC [7] Group 3: Company Analysis - 江南布衣 - 江南布衣 reported encouraging retail sales growth, improving from low single-digit growth in Q1 to double-digit growth in July-August, driven by low base effects and strong performance in outlet channels [8][9] - The management provided a conservative sales growth guidance for FY26, aiming for high single-digit growth, supported by multiple drivers including new brand contributions [8][9] - The target price for 江南布衣 has been raised to HKD 23.30, based on a 12x FY26 forecast P/E ratio, reflecting confidence in its sales and profit resilience [9][10]

Macro Strategy - The global economy is slowing down, but U.S. industrial revival and China's anti-involution policies may drive inflation rebound, posing challenges for central banks [1][3] - The U.S. is expected to implement high tariffs, low tax rates, and trade agreements to boost domestic manufacturing, while China will moderately expand fiscal stimulus and support households [1][3] - Global bond yields may slightly decline, the U.S. dollar may weaken, stock markets could see modest gains, and commodity prices may rise moderately [1][3] United States - GDP growth is projected to slow from 2% in the first half to 1.7% in Q3 and 1.3% in Q4, with a further decline to 1.7% in 2025 [3][4] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.3% to 4.5% by year-end, indicating a weakening labor market [4] - Inflation is anticipated to rise initially, with PCE inflation increasing from 2.4% in Q2 to 2.7% in Q3, before slightly declining to 2.6% in Q4 [5][6] - The housing market is expected to remain stagnant, with potential for slight improvement following interest rate cuts [6][7] United Kingdom - The UK economy is expected to slow down, with GDP growth decreasing from 1.3% in Q1 to around 1% in the second half of the year [15][16] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.9%-5% by Q4, reflecting a weakening job market [16] - Inflation is expected to peak around 4% in September before gradually declining, with CPI growth anticipated to be 3.4% for the year [17][18] - The housing market is showing signs of recovery, with transaction volumes expected to increase in Q4 due to falling inflation and potential interest rate cuts [18] Eurozone - Economic growth in the Eurozone is gradually slowing, with GDP growth expected to decline from 1.5% in Q1 to 0.8% in Q4 [27][28] - Consumer spending is anticipated to weaken slightly, influenced by a cooling job market and declining consumer confidence [28] - Fiscal policy may become moderately expansionary, focusing on defense and infrastructure spending to support economic growth [27] China - China's economy is expected to weaken slightly, with GDP growth projected to decline from 5.2% in Q2 to 4.6% in Q4 [1][3] - Deflationary pressures are expected to persist, but anti-involution policies may improve inflation expectations in the latter half of the year [1][3] - Fiscal policy is likely to expand to boost consumption, while monetary policy remains accommodative [1][3]

Macro Commentary - The report indicates that China's exports are beginning to slow down due to previous over-demand and tariff impacts, with exports to the US declining further, while resilience in exports to ASEAN partially offsets this decline [4] - The report forecasts that China's export growth may face downward pressure for the remainder of the year, predicting a slowdown from 5.9% in 2024 to 3% in 2025, while import growth is expected to slightly rise from 1.1% to 1.5% [4] Market Performance - The report highlights that the Chinese stock market is leading emerging markets in attracting ETF inflows, with a net inflow of $1.02 billion into emerging market ETFs in the week of September 5, with Chinese ETFs attracting the largest share at $302 million [3] - The report notes that major global stock indices, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, have rebounded, with the Nasdaq reaching a historical high [3] Sector Performance - In the Chinese market, industries such as industrials, paper, and machinery are leading the gains, while durable consumer goods, media, and daily consumption sectors are experiencing declines [3] - The report mentions that basic metal prices are mixed, with most agricultural products declining, indicating a varied performance across sectors [3] Company Focus - The report lists several companies with buy ratings, including Geely Automobile (175 HK) with a target price of 25.00, representing a 37% upside potential, and Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) with a target price of 44.95, indicating a 22% upside [5] - The report also highlights companies in the semiconductor sector, such as Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) and North Huachuang (002371 CH), both rated as buy with significant upside potentials of 17% and 24% respectively [5]

Market Strategy - The report indicates that there is still upward potential in the market, with recommended stocks including Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH), Shengyi Technology (600183 CH), Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), and others [1][11] - The software and IT services sector is expected to see accelerated revenue growth for leading overseas internet companies in Q2 2025, driven by sustained demand despite supply constraints [1] Macro Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is experiencing a slowdown, with GDP growth expected to decline from 5.2% in Q2 to 4.9% in Q3 and 4.6% in Q4, with an annual forecast of 5% [12] - The report anticipates that macro policies may be re-energized, with potential interest rate cuts and increased fiscal expansion to stimulate consumption [12][15] Technology Sector - The technology sector remains optimistic, with Q2 earnings generally exceeding expectations, driven by lower-than-expected tariff impacts and strong demand for AI servers [2] - The report highlights significant growth in AI-related products, including a 222% year-on-year increase in global AI glasses shipments in Q2 [2] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is expected to maintain high growth driven by policy benefits, global capital expenditure, and domestic substitution [2] - The report notes that major cloud service providers are expected to increase capital expenditures by 42.7% year-on-year by 2025, indicating strong demand for AI infrastructure [2] Consumer Sector - The report expresses a cautious outlook for certain consumer segments, particularly tea and coffee, hotels, and home appliances, while being more optimistic about dining, apparel, and sports goods [4] - It suggests focusing on companies that benefit from consumer downgrading and high dividend yields, recommending stocks like Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) and Anta (2020 HK) [4] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector is seeing a seasonal recovery, with a projected 6% month-on-month increase in retail sales in August, driven by new energy vehicle sales reaching historical highs [6] - Recommended stocks include Geely (175 HK) and Li Auto (LI US), which are expected to launch new models and continue strong sales performance [6] Real Estate Sector - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the real estate sector, with expectations of policy easing in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [7] - It recommends focusing on developers with strong commercial operations and those benefiting from the stock market recovery, such as Longfor Group (960 HK) [7] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is viewed as moderately optimistic, with listed insurers showing improved profitability driven by strong performance in equity markets [8] - The report suggests a focus on high-dividend stocks and long-term equity investments as a strategy to navigate the low-interest-rate environment [8] Capital Goods - The capital goods sector is expected to see continued strong growth, particularly in emerging markets, with recommendations for companies like SANY Heavy Industry (600031 CH) and Zoomlion (1157 HK) [10] - The report highlights the resilience of the engineering machinery and heavy truck sectors, with expectations of strong sales growth in the coming quarters [10]