2025 年 5 月 7 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观及公司点评 全球市场观察 宏观经济 ◼ 美国经济 - 关税短期升成本作用超过降需求效应 美国 4 月服务业 PMI 超预期回升，商业活动延续扩张，需求小幅改善，关税 冲击尚未带来需求紧缩效应，反而通过刺激抢购囤货而带动零售、物流、仓 储和贸易活动；物价指数大幅反弹，与关税推升消费者通胀预期相一致。制 造业 PMI 收缩幅度扩大，生产指数大幅降至 2020 年 5 月以来新低；关税扰 动供应链导致交付时间变长，价格指数创近 3 年新高，企业库存下降。 招银国际研究部 数据公布后，美国 10 年国债利率上升 4bp 至 4.36%，市场对全年降息幅度预 期下降 3bp 至 76bp。短期内，关税推升成本作用超过降低需求效应，通胀反 弹风险大于失业上升风险，美联储在 5、6 月份可能保持政策利率不变。下半 年，随着需求收缩效应超过成本上升作用，就业市场可能明显放缓，通胀可 能见顶回落，美联储可能在 7 月或 9 月降息一次，11 月或 12 月再降一次。 （链接） 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主 ...

Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI rose from 50.8 in March to 51.6 in April, exceeding market expectations of 50.2, indicating an acceleration in service sector expansion[2] - The Manufacturing PMI decreased from 49 in March to 48.7 in April, better than the expected 47.9, suggesting a contraction in manufacturing activity[2] Inflation and Costs - The price index for services increased from 60.8 to 65.1, reaching a nearly two-year high, while the manufacturing price index rose from 69.4 to 69.8[2] - Tariffs are expected to raise PCE inflation by up to 0.6 percentage points over the next two quarters, with short-term inflation risks outweighing unemployment risks[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The market's expectation for interest rate cuts in 2023 decreased by 3 basis points to 76 basis points following the data release, with the Fed likely to maintain rates in May and June[1] - The Fed may consider rate cuts in July or September, followed by another cut in November or December as demand contraction begins to outweigh cost increases[1]

宏观、行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 宏观经济 美国经济 - 就业仍然稳健降低近期降息概率 2025 年 5 月 6 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 美国 4 月新增非农就业 17.7 万人，超出市场预期，显示美国就业市场仍然稳 健。时薪增速延续下降，已基本回到与 2%通胀目标相符的水平，预示核心服 务通胀将保持回落。每周工时与职位空缺数/失业人口比已低于疫情前水平， 显示劳动力市场供需平衡，预示目前的就业市场应对关税冲击的缓冲更小。 失业率保持在 4.2%，就业人数连续 2 月反弹。 数据公布后市场预期 6 月不降息的概率从 42%升至 69%，全年降息幅度从 91bp 降至 78bp。由于就业市场仍然稳健，关税可能推升近期通胀，我们预 计美联储 5 月和 6 月可能保持政策利率不变。由于市场对政策利率预期更加 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 22,505 | 1. ...

2025 年 5 月 6 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 (15) (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 失业率(左轴) 非农就业增速(右轴) (%) (%) (1,000) (800) (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 政府 服务 商品 月均新增就业(千人) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 ...

2 May 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Microsoft (MSFT US) Cloud revenue growth reaccelerated Microsoft reported (1 May HKT) 3QFY25 (June year-end) results: revenue was US$70.1bn, up 13.3% YoY (2QFY25: +12.3% YoY), 2% better than both our forecast and consensus estimates, mainly driven by a 3/6% beat in Intelligent Cloud / More Personal Computing (MPC) segment. Net profit was up 17.7% YoY to US$25.8bn, 7% better than our forecast and consensus, driven by better- than- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Ltd. with a target price of HK$89, indicating a potential upside of 53.2% from the current price of HK$58.10 [4][29]. Core Insights - AIA Group reported a strong growth in Value of New Business (VONB) of 13% year-on-year (YoY) in Q1 2025, driven by a 3 percentage point increase in profit margin and a 7% growth in Annualized New Premium (ANP) [1][2]. - The VONB margin reached a record high of 57.5%, attributed to a gradual shift in product mix towards participating long-term savings [1][2]. - The company initiated a US$1.6 billion share buyback program, expected to be completed faster than initially planned, reflecting AIA's commitment to shareholder returns [1][2]. Summary by Sections VONB Growth - Group VONB increased by 13% YoY to US$1.5 billion in Q1 2025, with agency VONB growing by 21% to US$1.22 billion, accounting for 75% of the total [2][3]. - The cooperative VONB saw a decline of 2% to US$400 million due to increased competition in Hong Kong and regulatory tightening in China [2][3]. - Excluding China, bank insurance VONB grew by 21% YoY [2]. Financial Performance - The report projects a total shareholder return of 6.2% for FY2025, with a dividend yield of 3.3% and a buyback yield of 2.9% [1][3]. - The operating profit after tax (OPAT) is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2023 to 2026 [1][3]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is valued at a price-to-embedded value (P/EV) of 1.05 times and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.65 times for FY2025 [3][4]. - The report estimates a forward operating return on equity (ROE) of 15% over the next three years [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec, indicating a potential return of over 15% in the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - WuXi AppTec reported strong financial performance for Q1 2025, with revenue increasing by 21.0% year-on-year to RMB 9.65 billion, and adjusted non-IFRS net profit rising by 40.0% to RMB 2.68 billion [1][2]. - The TIDES business segment experienced significant growth, with revenue soaring by 187.6% to RMB 22.4 billion, driven by expanded capacity and contributions from oral GLP-1 projects [2]. - Despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, management reaffirmed its annual performance guidance, expecting a revenue growth of 10-15% and an expansion in adjusted non-IFRS net profit margin [1][2]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, revenue is projected at RMB 42.97 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.5%, while adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 11.61 billion, a growth of 9.7% [4][16]. - The company’s unfulfilled contract amount grew by 47.1% year-on-year to RMB 52.33 billion by the end of Q1 2025, indicating a solid foundation for future growth [1]. - The report also highlights a decrease in the P/E ratio from 16.5 in FY24A to 15.0 in FY25E, suggesting improved valuation attractiveness [4][16]. Shareholder Returns - WuXi AppTec's board proposed a series of shareholder return plans, including maintaining a 30% annual cash dividend payout ratio and a one-time special dividend of RMB 10 billion in 2025 [3]. - The total proposed dividend and buyback plan amounts to nearly RMB 60 billion, representing 62% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [3]. Valuation - The target price has been adjusted from RMB 94.05 to RMB 77.22 based on DCF valuation, reflecting a downside risk of 27.7% from the current price of RMB 60.45 [5][6].

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing at 22,008, up 0.16% year-to-date increase of 29.10% [1] - The US markets continued to rebound, with the Dow Jones up 0.75% and the S&P 500 up 0.58%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 7.53% and 16.58% respectively [1][3] Industry Insights - The equipment manufacturing sector reported Q1 2025 earnings, with SANY Heavy Industry exceeding expectations with a 56% year-on-year profit increase, driven by an 18% revenue growth [4] - The pharmaceutical company WuXi AppTec reported a strong Q1 2025, with revenue up 21% to 9.65 billion yuan and a non-IFRS net profit increase of 40% to 2.68 billion yuan [4][6] - Mindray Medical's revenue for 2024 was 36.7 billion yuan, a 5.1% increase, but faced challenges in the domestic market with a 12.1% decline in Q1 2025 revenue [7][8] Company Analysis - WuXi AppTec maintained its full-year guidance despite macro uncertainties, expecting a 10-15% revenue growth in its continuing operations for 2025 [4][6] - Mindray Medical's overseas revenue grew by 21.3% in 2024, accounting for 44.7% of total revenue, indicating strong international market performance [7] - Luckin Coffee reported a 41% year-on-year sales increase in Q1 2025, driven by strong same-store sales growth and rapid store expansion [11][12] Investment Ratings - SANY Heavy Industry is rated as a "Buy" with a focus on its excavator business cycle and overseas growth potential [4] - WuXi AppTec is also rated as a "Buy," with a target price of 77.22 yuan, reflecting confidence in its growth despite external challenges [6] - Mindray Medical is rated as a "Buy," with a target price of 249.19 yuan, anticipating recovery in domestic sales in the latter half of 2025 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Mindray, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [16]. Core Insights - Mindray's revenue for 2024 is reported at RMB 36.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, while the attributable net profit is RMB 11.7 billion, up 0.7% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) has decreased by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to 63.1%, attributed to pricing pressures on IVD reagents and mid- to low-end medical equipment, as well as weaker IVD testing demand [1]. - Domestic revenue fell by 5.1% year-on-year to RMB 20.3 billion in 2024, with significant declines in the PMLS and MIS segments due to weak hospital procurement [8]. - Overseas revenue grew by 21.3% year-on-year to RMB 16.4 billion, accounting for 44.7% of total revenue, with Asia-Pacific being a key growth driver [8]. - The target price has been adjusted to RMB 249.19 from a previous target of RMB 328.81, reflecting a downside potential of 15.4% from the current price of RMB 215.85 [3]. Financial Summary - For FY24, revenue is projected to grow to RMB 40.2 billion in FY25, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.4% [2][13]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25 is estimated at RMB 12.3 billion, representing a growth of 6.5% year-on-year [2][13]. - The report indicates a decline in gross profit and operating profit forecasts for FY25E, with revenue expectations revised down by approximately 7.85% [9]. Share Performance - The market capitalization of Mindray is reported at RMB 261.7 billion, with a 52-week high of RMB 324.50 and a low of RMB 211.59 [3]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 20.4% over the past six months [5]. Shareholding Structure - The major shareholders include Smartco Development Limited with 27.0% and Magnifice (HK) Limited with 24.5% [4].

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing at 21,972, down 0.04% for the day but up 28.89% year-to-date [1] - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.20% and the Shenzhen Composite Index down 0.93% [3] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 2.03 billion [3] Company Analysis BYD Electronics (285 HK) - The company reported flat earnings for Q1 2025, primarily due to weak demand for high-end smartphones and potential tariff impacts on Apple’s assembly business [4] - The gross profit margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 6.3% quarter-on-quarter, but decreased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Management maintains a positive outlook for 2025, citing growth in Apple assembly, stable Android business, strong automotive demand, and growth in servers/robots [4] Wentech Technology (600745 CH) - The company’s revenue decreased by 19.4% year-on-year to RMB 13.1 billion, but net profit surged by 82.3% to RMB 261 million [5] - The gross margin recovered to 14.0%, indicating resilience in the semiconductor business [5] - The company is transitioning to focus on semiconductor business after divesting its ODM operations, which is expected to drive future growth [5] Li Ning (2331 HK) - Retail sales growth deteriorated in April 2025, with management noting a decline in offline channels due to adverse weather and a challenging macro environment [6][7] - Despite the challenges, the company maintains its full-year guidance, expecting stable sales growth and high single-digit net profit margins [6] - The company’s Q1 retail sales growth was in line with expectations, with online channels performing strongly [7] China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK) - The company reported a 39% year-on-year increase in new business value for Q1 2025, exceeding expectations [11][12] - However, the group’s net profit fell by 18.1% to RMB 9.63 billion, primarily due to declines in bond fair value and mismatches in yield curves [11] - The management expects operational profit to maintain low single-digit growth for the year, supported by business transformation [13] Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH) - The company’s EBIT grew by only 2% year-on-year to RMB 440 million, with net profit increasing by 42% due to non-operating income [10] - The company faces challenges from unpredictable U.S. tariff policies, which may impact demand for its products in the U.S. market [10] - The target price remains at RMB 44, reflecting a cautious outlook on profitability [10] 康方生物 (9926 HK) - The company continues to show promise with its drug AK112, which has demonstrated efficacy in clinical trials against competitors [9][10] - The ongoing trials in overseas markets are expected to yield significant data, enhancing the drug's potential for approval and market entry [9][10] - The target price for 康方生物 is set at HKD 108.03, maintaining a buy rating based on the drug's promising results [10]