Market Overview - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,530, up 1.26% for the day and 38.03% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 index in the US decreased by 0.22% for the day but is up 25.12% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.51% but has risen 29.55% year-to-date [1] Industry Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 31.7% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 18.2% [4] - The Chinese innovative drug sector is expected to continue its trend of overseas transactions, with a projected total scale of approximately $52.2 billion in 2024, accounting for about one-third of the global licensing transaction scale [4] - The report highlights that the global life sciences M&A transaction total is around $150 billion annually, with a small proportion attributed to Chinese companies, indicating significant growth potential for outbound transactions [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies in the healthcare sector, including 三生制药 (3SB), 百济神州 (BGB), and 信达生物 (IDB), as having solid fundamentals and reasonable valuations [5] - In the automotive sector, 吉利汽车 (Geely) is rated as a buy with a target price of 24.00, representing a potential upside of 48% [6] - In the technology sector, 腾讯 (Tencent) is also rated as a buy with a target price of 660.00, indicating a potential upside of 31% [6]

Global Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,238, down 1.99% for the day but up 36.31% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.42% on the day, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 35.17% [1] - The US markets remained stable, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 unchanged, showing year-to-date increases of 11.89% and 25.39% respectively [1] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - The Hang Seng Financial Index decreased by 1.77% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 39.60% [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial and Commercial Index fell by 2.20%, while the Hang Seng Utilities Index saw a smaller decline of 1.12% [2] Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with predictions of two rate cuts later in the year due to economic slowdown and inflation concerns [4] - The US economy is facing risks of stagflation, with a projected decrease in economic growth and an increase in unemployment rates [4] - The Japanese government is adjusting its bond issuance strategy to alleviate upward pressure on long-term bond yields [3] Company Analysis: 大家乐 (Cafe de Coral) - The company is facing significant challenges, with same-store sales in Hong Kong and mainland China continuing to decline, leading to a downward revision of growth forecasts from 2% to 0% for the fiscal year 2026 [4][5] - Despite efforts to enhance customer traffic through new product offerings and membership programs, sales growth remains constrained by external competition and changing consumer behavior [5] - The company has lowered its profit margin expectations due to rising operational costs and competitive pressures, with a projected net profit decline of 30% for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 [6][7] Investment Ratings and Targets - The investment rating for 大家乐 has been downgraded to "Hold," with a target price set at 6.52 HKD, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's performance amid a challenging market environment [6][7] - The company's fiscal year 2025 sales fell by 1.4% to 8.6 billion HKD, with net profit declining by 25% to 233 million HKD, which was below expectations [6][7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintains the policy interest rate at 5.25%-5.5% due to high economic uncertainty[2] - The median GDP growth forecast for 2023 has been revised down from 1.7% to 1.4%[2] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise by 0.1 percentage points to 4.5%[2] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - PCE inflation forecast for 2023 has increased from 2.7% to 3%[2] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a risk of economic stagnation, with a median forecast for 2026 GDP growth reduced from 1.8% to 1.6%[2] - The core PCE inflation forecast for 2026 and 2027 has been raised to 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively[2] Group 3: Future Rate Cuts and Market Impact - The Fed is expected to start cutting rates in September, with a potential second cut in November or December, bringing the year-end federal funds rate to approximately 3.83%[2] - Long-term Treasury yields are anticipated to rise initially before declining, with the 10-year yield expected to end the year around 4.2%[1] - The US dollar index is projected to decrease from 99 to 97 by year-end, influenced by geopolitical risks and policy instability[1]

Macro Economic Overview - The global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,711, down 1.12% for the day but up 39.09% year-to-date [1] - The US retail sales unexpectedly fell in May, with significant declines in durable goods and restaurant services, while some categories like clothing and online shopping saw a rebound [4] - The US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in June and July, with potential rate cuts anticipated in September and November or December due to economic slowdown and inflation concerns [4] Industry Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index decreased by 0.67% and is up 42.12% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Real Estate Index fell by 1.98%, down 6.59% year-to-date [2] - The semiconductor industry saw significant gains, with the A-share market reflecting strong performance in this sector [3] Company Focus - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 24.00, representing a potential upside of 48% [5] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 28.00, indicating a 50% upside [5] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) has a target price of 40.61, suggesting an 18% upside from its current price of 34.50 [5] - Tencent (700 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 660.00, indicating a potential upside of 30% [5] - Alibaba (BABA US) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 155.50, representing a 37% upside [5]

Economic Overview - In May, U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9%, worse than the expected decline of 0.6%, primarily due to a drop in automotive and parts consumption[4] - Industrial production decreased by 0.2% in May, below the market expectation of 0%, with utilities experiencing a significant drop of 2.9%[4] Retail Sector Insights - Automotive sales continued to decline, dropping from 5.3% in March to -3.5% in May, reflecting a weakening demand for durable goods[4] - Non-durable goods consumption showed signs of recovery, with clothing and online shopping sales increasing from 0% and 0.4% in April to 0.8% and 0.9% in May, respectively[4] Inflation and Federal Reserve Outlook - Inflation is expected to rebound in Q3 due to rising oil prices and tariff impacts, despite a general economic slowdown[1] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain interest rates steady in June and July, with potential rate cuts in September and either November or December[1]

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,980, down 0.34% for the day but up 40.67% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the US remained unchanged, with year-to-date increases of 26.48% and 31.24% respectively [1] - The DAX in Germany fell by 1.30%, while the Nikkei 225 in Japan rose by 0.59% [1] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - The Hang Seng Financial Index decreased by 0.70% for the day, but is up 43.08% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index fell by 0.25%, showing a year-to-date decline of 4.70% [2] - The Hang Seng Utilities Index increased slightly by 0.11%, with a year-to-date gain of 11.26% [2] Chinese Stock Market Trends - The Chinese stock market experienced a pullback, with healthcare, energy, and consumer staples sectors leading the decline [3] - A-shares in biopharmaceuticals and media saw significant drops, while coal and utilities sectors rose [3] - The People's Bank of China is expected to reduce its quantitative tightening (QT) measures starting in Q2 of next year, impacting bond yields [3] Oil and Commodity Market Insights - Rising tensions in the Middle East have led to a spike in oil prices, although the medium-term outlook for oil remains pessimistic due to expected oversupply [3] - The International Energy Agency forecasts global oil production to rise to 104.9 million barrels per day by 2025, while demand is projected to decrease to 103.8 million barrels per day [3] Focus Stocks and Investment Recommendations - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 24.00, representing a potential upside of 47% [4] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 40.61, indicating an 18% upside [4] - Tencent (700 HK) has a target price of 660.00, suggesting a 29% potential increase from its current price [4]

招银国际环球市场有限公司 焦点股份 2025年6月17日 招银国际焦点股份 | 招银国际焦点股份 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市 | 值 | 平均日交易量 | 股 | 价 | 目标价 | 上/下 | 行 | 市盈率(倍) | 市净率(倍) | ROE (%) | 股息率 | 分析师 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 行 | 业 | 评 | 级 | (十亿美元) | (百万美元) | （当地货币)（当地货币) | 空 | 间 | FY24A | FY25E | FY24A | FY24A | FY24A | | | 长 | 仓 | 吉利汽车 | 买入 | 史迹/ ...

2025 年 6 月 17 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观点评 全球市场观察 宏观点评 中国经济 - 复苏仍不平衡 5 月经济数据显示经济复苏仍不平衡，在耐用品以旧换新政策支撑下，社会 零售额显著超出市场预期，但房地产销量跌幅扩大，工业产出增速普遍放缓。 下半年，随着出口走弱和耐用品以旧换新政策效果减弱，经济可能面临阻力。 我们预计 GDP 增速将从 2025 年第一季度 5.4%放缓至第二季度 4.9%和下半 年 4.7%。如果中美能够初步达成贸易协议，中国可能聚焦经济再平衡，加大 财政扩张和消费提振力度，推进制造业去产能。（链接） | | 收市价 | | 升/跌（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生金融 | 42,969 | 0.93 | 44.08 | | 恒生工商业 | 13,448 | 0.55 | 45.64 | | 恒生地产 | 17,509 | 1.60 | -4.47 | | 恒生公用事业 | 36,534 | 0.10 | 11.13 | | 资料来源：彭博 | | | | 招银国际研究 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to HKD 93, based on a 25x forecasted P/E for 2025 [1][7][8]. Core Insights - The company is viewed as a high-quality target in the semiconductor sector, with sustainable growth potential. The management's clear and sustainable growth strategy has left a strong impression [1][7]. - The report highlights three key areas of investor focus: downstream demand outlook, geopolitical risks, and the company's investment plans for upstream manufacturing resources [1][7]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue and profit growth of 20%-30% despite macroeconomic uncertainties, driven by the expansion of new product categories [7][8]. Financial Summary - Sales revenue is projected to grow from RMB 464 million in FY23A to RMB 1,172 million in FY27E, with a CAGR of approximately 25.6% [2][14]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 109.2 million in FY23A to RMB 342.1 million in FY27E, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2][14]. - The gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 53.9% from FY25E onwards, indicating consistent profitability [2][14]. Valuation Metrics - The company's current valuation stands at 19.3x P/E for 2025, with a PEG ratio of 0.77, which is considered attractive compared to the industry average of 66.1x [7][8][13]. - The target price of HKD 93 represents a potential upside of 27.4% from the current price of HKD 73 [3][7]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown significant performance, with a 151.3% absolute return over the past six months [4]. - The stock's market capitalization is approximately HKD 1.314 billion, with a 52-week price range of HKD 73.00 to HKD 23.05 [3][4].

Macro Economic Overview - China's credit situation continues to be driven by government financing, while private sector credit demand remains weak. The growth rate of social financing in May has rebounded due to accelerated issuance of government bonds. However, tariff impacts are dragging down household purchasing, consumption, and corporate capital expenditure, leading to a continuous decline in new RMB loans year-on-year. More policy support is needed to revive private economic recovery momentum [2] - It is expected that the LPR will be further lowered by 10 basis points in the second half of 2025, and the broad fiscal deficit may moderately increase. The central bank is likely to maintain ample liquidity to support credit growth and stabilize the real estate sector, countering the impacts of tariff shocks. If a trade agreement can be reached between China and the US, China may focus on economic rebalancing, increasing fiscal expansion and consumption stimulation, and advancing manufacturing capacity reduction [2][4] Company Analysis Mindray Medical (300760 CH) - Mindray Medical recently held an investor day, focusing on the digital transformation of its equipment business and the expansion strategy of its flow-type business, aiming to build an overall solution covering all departments with "equipment + IT + AI" and "equipment + consumables." Key highlights include the establishment of a digital medical ecosystem based on IT + AI technology across three major production lines [5] - The company’s AI medical layout mainly focuses on emergency, surgery, and critical care, with the launch of a major model for critical care expected in December 2024, aiming to complete installations in over 30 hospitals this year. By the end of 2025, the company plans to release a major model for anesthesia, with specialized models for emergency, cardiovascular, ultrasound, and laboratory expected to be released in the next 1-2 years [5][6] - The automated assembly line is a key breakthrough for the IVD business, with over 200 new installations expected globally in 2024 and around 300 installations anticipated in 2025. The comprehensive IVD layout supports the company’s multi-disciplinary assembly line production, providing cost and iteration efficiency advantages [6][7] Baker Microelectronics (2149 HK) - Baker Microelectronics remains a core recommendation in the semiconductor sector, with a focus on demand prospects, geopolitical uncertainties, and upstream manufacturing resource investment plans. The company has a clear and sustainable growth strategy [8] Adobe (ADBE US) - Adobe reported a 11% year-on-year revenue growth to $5.87 billion for Q2 FY25, with non-GAAP net profit increasing by 7% to $2.17 billion, both in line with consensus expectations. The company raised its FY25 total revenue guidance to $23.5-23.6 billion, primarily driven by strong performance in its digital media business and increased penetration of AI products [8] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK): Buy rating, target price of 24.00 HKD, potential upside of 47% [9] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV US): Buy rating, target price of 28.00 USD, potential upside of 54% [9] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US): Buy rating, target price of 40.61 USD, potential upside of 15% [9] - Tencent (700 HK): Buy rating, target price of 660.00 HKD, potential upside of 29% [9] - Alibaba (BABA US): Buy rating, target price of 155.50 USD, potential upside of 38% [9]