农夫山泉(9633 HK) 1H24 错过 ， 茶叶成为最大的利润贡献者 农夫的 1H24 收入 由于包装水部门市场份额下滑，公司未能达到其指引。我 们预计该部门的收入增长率将保持在低个位数，因为市场份额的恢复需要时间 。茶饮料部门的收入同比增长59%，其收入份额接近水类的38%，营业利润率 （OPM）比水类高10个百分点。茶饮料取代了包装水成为公司的主要利润驱 动因素。鉴于下半年不利的环境和管理层态度的软化，我们认为公司在2024财 年实现两位数收入增长的目标具有挑战性。基于2024财年市盈率40倍，我们 将目标价下调13%至50.38港元，以反映较低的盈利预测。维持买入评级。 水部门受到市场份额损失的伤害 2024年上半财年（1H24）收入同比增长8.4 %，低于预期，主要是由于包装水业务收入同比下降18%，原因是在2月因网 上谣言导致品牌受损后市场占有率下降。公司观察到7月和8月市场占有率有所 恢复，但要回到2月前的水平还需要时间。我们预计全年包装水业务收入将实 现个位数低增长，这反映了中大型水业务增长对小型水业务下滑的部分抵消作 用。包装水业务的营业利润率（OPM）较上年同期下降了4.2个百分点，这是 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for BYDE with a target price of HK$45.28, indicating a potential upside of 53.5% from the current price of HK$29.50 [3][10]. Core Insights - BYDE reported a strong revenue growth of 40% YoY in 1H24, driven by gains in Apple market share, recovery in Android, consolidation of Jabil, and robust demand in the NEV segment. However, net profit growth was only 0.1% YoY, falling short of estimates due to a decline in gross profit margin and a significant increase in selling expenses [2][6]. - The outlook for 2H24 is positive, with expectations of continued momentum from iPhone/iPad upgrades, resilient Android demand, and contributions from new product launches in NEV and AI server segments [2][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 129,957 million in FY23A to RMB 171,957 million in FY24E, reflecting a YoY growth of 32.3% [1]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 4,041.4 million in FY23A to RMB 5,063.1 million in FY24E, representing a YoY growth of 25.3% [1]. - The report highlights a decline in gross profit margin to 6.8% in 1H24, down 1 percentage point YoY, while selling expenses surged by 211% YoY to RMB 902 million [2][6]. Segment Performance - BYDE's revenue breakdown for 1H24 shows assembly sales grew by 33.3% YoY, while component sales surged by 205.8% YoY, indicating strong performance across segments [6]. - The NEV segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, supported by new product launches and a favorable market environment [2][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a target P/E of 18.3x for FY24E, with specific P/E multiples of 15x for assembly and component businesses, and 20x for new intelligent and NEV segments, reflecting their growth potential [10][8]. - The current P/E is noted at 12.0x for FY24E, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [9].

Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) 1H24 missed, tea became top profit contributor Nongfu's 1H24 revenue missed company's guidance given its market share loss in the packaged water segment. We expect low single digit revenue growth for the segment since market share recovery takes time. Tea beverage revenue grew 59% YoY and delivered revenue share close to water of 38%, with a 10ppt higher in OPM than water segment. The tea beverage replaced the packaged water and became the company's top profit driver. We think that i ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Intron Tech [15][16]. Core Insights - Intron Tech reported 1H24 revenue of RMB 2.84 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, but net profit fell to RMB 97.7 million, a 37% decline year-over-year, primarily due to a gross profit margin (GPM) decline to 15.9% [1][19]. - The company expects a recovery in net profit margin in 2H24E driven by new order wins in new energy and ADAS, as well as expansion into overseas markets [1][15]. - The target price has been adjusted to HK$ 2.35, based on a lowered 10x FY24E P/E, reflecting near-term industry headwinds [1][15]. Financial Performance - 1H24 revenue growth was driven by strong performance in the new energy segment, which grew 16% year-over-year, while other segments like body control and powertrain saw declines [1][12]. - The GPM for 1H24 was 15.9%, down from 20.6% in 1H23, indicating pricing pressures along the auto supply chain [1][19]. - The report projects FY24E revenue to be RMB 6.32 billion, with a net profit of RMB 225 million, reflecting a 29% decline year-over-year [10][19]. Segment Analysis - The new energy segment is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with revenue projected to reach RMB 3.26 billion in FY24E, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 17.1% [12][19]. - The body control segment is projected to grow modestly, with revenue expected to reach RMB 951 million in FY25E, reflecting a 5% year-over-year increase [12][19]. - The powertrain segment is anticipated to face challenges, with a projected revenue decline of 23.1% in FY24E [12][19]. Valuation Metrics - Intron Tech is currently trading at 5.4x FY24E P/E and 3.2x FY25E P/E, which is considered attractive compared to peers in the automobile components sector [15][16]. - The report highlights that Intron's high return on equity (ROE) levels further support its undervaluation [15][16]. Upcoming Catalysts - Key catalysts for future growth include increased penetration of ADAS technologies and gaining market share among new energy vehicle clients [1][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Hansoh Pharma, with a target price of HK$24.11, reflecting a 17.0% upside from the current price of HK$20.60 [2][3]. Core Insights - Hansoh Pharma demonstrated strong sales growth in innovative drugs, reporting RMB6.51 billion in revenue for 1H24, with RMB5.10 billion from product sales, marking a 13.8% year-over-year increase [2]. - The company continues to expand its innovative drug pipeline, particularly with aumolertinib, which is expected to drive significant revenue growth [2]. - Cost efficiency has improved, as indicated by a decrease in selling and administrative expense ratios [2]. Revenue and Profitability - For FY24E, total revenue is expected to increase by 21% year-over-year to RMB12.23 billion, with organic revenue growth projected at 14.3% [2][3]. - Net profit is anticipated to rise by 33.3% to RMB4.37 billion in FY24E, before decreasing by 25.1% in FY25E [2][3]. - The gross profit margin is projected to remain strong at 90.16% for FY24E [9]. Product Sales and Pipeline - Innovative drugs accounted for 77% of total revenue in 1H24, with a 31.6% year-over-year growth in sales from these products [2]. - Aumolertinib is set to expand its indications, with expected approvals by mid-2025, potentially becoming the first domestic EGFR-TKI for new indications [2]. - The company is also advancing other innovative drugs, including HS-20093 and HS-20089, with ongoing clinical trials [2]. Financial Metrics - The report outlines a significant increase in R&D expenses, which rose by 29% year-over-year to RMB1.20 billion, representing 23.4% of product sales [2]. - The earnings summary indicates a projected EPS of RMB0.74 for FY24E, with a P/E ratio of 25.6 [3][8]. - The company's market capitalization is reported at HK$122.27 billion, with an average turnover of HK$66.3 million over the past three months [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Shengyi Tech with a target price of RMB26.41, implying a potential upside of approximately 49.2% from the current price of RMB17.70 [5][3]. Core Insights - Shengyi Tech reported solid earnings for 1H24, with revenue increasing by 22.2% year-on-year (YoY) to RMB9.6 billion, driven by strong demand in AI servers and automotive orders [3][4]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 21.6%, benefiting from better utilization and a favorable product mix [3]. - Net profit surged by 68.0% YoY to RMB932 million, accounting for 47% of the full-year forecast [3][4]. - The report highlights that both the CCL and PCB segments experienced double-digit growth and margin expansion [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected at RMB20.85 billion, reflecting a 25.7% YoY growth, with net profit expected to reach RMB2.17 billion, an 86.7% increase YoY [4][12]. - Gross margin is anticipated to improve to 21.8% in FY24E and further to 23.9% by FY26E [4][15]. - The report indicates that the PCB revenue from the server market accounted for 38% of segment sales in 1H24, marking a 20% increase from 1H23 [3]. Segment Performance - CCL and Prepreg sales rose by 20.7% YoY, with GPM improving by 2.0 percentage points [3]. - PCB revenue increased by 23.5% YoY, with GPM improving by 1.6 percentage points [3]. - The report notes ongoing challenges in the telecom segment due to soft investments [3]. Market Conditions - The report discusses the impact of copper prices on Shengyi's CCL business, noting that prices peaked above US$10,000 per ton before retreating to US$9,300 per ton [3]. - It is expected that if copper prices stabilize, Shengyi's CCL average selling price (ASP) will likely increase, contributing to overall GPM improvements [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a target price of RMB 64.00 for Jiangsu Hengli, representing a 33% upside from the previous price of RMB 48.12 [1]. Core Views - Jiangsu Hengli's EBIT grew by 58% year-on-year to RMB 644 million in Q2 2024, driven by a 22% increase in revenue and a 6.3 percentage point expansion in gross profit margin [1]. - The net profit increased by only 5% to RMB 686 million, primarily due to a high base effect from Q2 2023, which included significant foreign exchange gains [1]. - The report highlights three positive trends: (1) Continuous revenue contribution from non-excavator components; (2) Deliveries of electric cylinders and ball screws (key components for robots) starting in July, leading to rapid production increases; (3) The hydraulic component production base in Mexico is expected to commence operations in December, with a designed annual output value of USD 4.5 billion [1]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2024, non-excavator cylinder sales increased by 21.5% year-on-year to 139,000 units, driven by demand from tunnel boring machines, cranes, and aerial work platforms [1]. - Revenue from non-excavator cylinders grew approximately 20% to RMB 1.3 billion, while revenue from excavator cylinders decreased by 13.5% to RMB 1.1 billion [1]. - The report projects revenue growth for Jiangsu Hengli, with total revenue expected to reach RMB 10,033 million in 2024, representing an 11.7% year-on-year increase [8]. Key Ratios - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 improved to 43.1%, up 6.3 percentage points year-on-year and 3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 31 times for 2024, aligning with historical averages [1]. - The net profit margin is expected to stabilize, with adjusted net profit forecasted to reach RMB 2,757 million in 2024, reflecting a 10.3% year-on-year growth [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangsu Hengli is maintained at a target price of RMB 64.00, representing a 33.0% upside from the current price of RMB 48.12 [2]. Core Insights - Jiangsu Hengli reported a revenue growth of 22% year-on-year in 2Q24, with EBIT surging 58% year-on-year to RMB 644 million, driven by a surprising gross margin expansion of 6.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is experiencing positive developments, with increasing contributions from non-excavator components and a fast production ramp-up in key products such as ball screws and electric cylinders [2][3]. - The hydraulic components production base in Mexico is expected to commence operations in December, with a designed annual output value of US$450 million [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected to reach RMB 10,033 million, reflecting an 11.7% year-on-year growth, while adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 2,757 million, a 10.3% increase [11][14]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve to 42.2% in FY24E, up from 41.9% in FY23A [14]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to be 27.5% in FY24E, slightly down from 27.8% in FY23A [13][14]. Revenue Breakdown - Non-excavator cylinders sales volume increased by 21.5% year-on-year to 139,000 units in 1H24, driven by demand for tunnel boring machines, cranes, and aerial work platforms [2]. - Revenue from non-excavator cylinders grew approximately 20% to RMB 1.3 billion, while revenue from excavator cylinders decreased by 13.5% year-on-year to RMB 1.1 billion [2]. Key Ratios and Valuation - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 25.8 in FY23A to 23.4 in FY24E, indicating a more attractive valuation [11][14]. - The P/B ratio is expected to decline from 4.5 in FY23A to 4.0 in FY24E, reflecting a strengthening balance sheet [11][14]. - The dividend yield is projected to increase from 1.5% in FY23A to 1.6% in FY24E, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [11][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Naura Technology with a target price of RMB405, implying a potential upside of 34.7% from the current price of RMB300.64 [2][3]. Core Insights - Naura Technology reported robust earnings for 1H24, with revenue growing 46.4% YoY to RMB12.3 billion and net profit increasing 54.5% YoY to RMB2.8 billion, aligning with the company's earnings pre-announcement [2]. - The company's gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 45.5% in 1H24, up from 41% in FY23, while net profit margin (NPM) expanded to 22.5% from 17.7% in FY23, indicating strong operational efficiency [2]. - Future growth is expected to be driven by the semiconductor localization trend, product coverage expansion, market share gains, and economies of scale [2]. Financial Performance Summary - 1H24 revenue accounted for 40% of the FY24E forecast, consistent with historical seasonality [2]. - The semiconductor equipment revenue increased by 55.1% YoY, constituting 92% of total revenue in 1H24 [2]. - The report projects total revenue of RMB30.9 billion for FY24E, reflecting a 39.7% YoY growth, and RMB39.0 billion for FY25E, indicating a 26.5% growth [2][3]. Earnings Revision - The report revises up the FY24E net profit forecast by 9% to RMB6.01 billion and maintains revenue projections at RMB30.86 billion for FY24E [6]. - Gross margin estimates for FY24E have been increased by 5.2 percentage points to 45.0% [6]. - The net profit margin is expected to reach 19.5% in FY24E, up from 17.9% in the previous estimates [6]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of RMB405 implies a valuation of 35.77x FY24E P/E, which is justified given Naura's leading position in the domestic semiconductor equipment market [2]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in return on equity (ROE), projected to reach 22.0% in FY24E, up from 17.7% in FY23 [3][9].

浙江鼎力 (603338 CH) 繁荣升降机和美国市场仍然是关键驱动因素 浙江鼎力（Dingli）在2024年第二季度的息税前利润（EBIT）增长了72%，达 到人民币612百万元，主要由收入增长34%和毛利率扩张2.6个百分点驱动。报 告净利润仅增长2%至522百万元，这主要是由于缺乏外汇收益导致的净财务收 入减少。在财报电话会议上，管理层重申了对美国市场的乐观展望，保持全年 提升式起重机销售目标为2000台不变。此外，管理层预计美国总统选举后可能 增加的关税影响是可以管理的，因为反倾销关税的减少可以减轻这一影响。我 们维持我们的盈利预测不变。保持当前评级。 BUY TP 不变 ， 为 75 元人民币(18 倍 2024E P / E ， 低于 31 倍的历史平均水平 1 SD) 。 . . 第二季度强劲的收入增长和利润率。 收入同比增长 34% ， 达到 2 元人民 币 40 亿。毛利率扩大 2 同比增6个百分点至31.8%。管理费用比率相对稳 定，保持在2.5%。净金融费用同比减少96%，降至1000万元人民币，原因 是未产生外汇收益。 景气提升仍然是增长动力。 在2024年上半年（1H24），直臂式提 ...