亚洲首次公开募股：香港复苏，东盟落后。 ◆ 经过长时间的放缓，香港的首次公开募股（IPO）正在复苏 。中国大陆公司现在在香港筹集的股权比在国内更多。 ◆ 2024年，印度是全球最大的首次公开募股（IPO）市场，按 交易量计算位居世界首位，按价值计算位居第二，并且有望 迎来又一个强劲的年份。 ◆ 在东盟地区，首次公开募股（IPO）活动放缓，马来西亚除 外。在新加坡，退市公司的数量多于首次公开募股。 飞航荷兰人 香港反弹。 经过数年的平淡活动，香港的IPO市场今年有所回升，反映了股市的逆 转。今年迄今为止，公司筹集的资金量是2024年同期总额的两倍多，未来几个月的I PO项目管道也是有三年以来最繁忙的。按目前的运行速度，我们预计今年IPO筹集 的资金总额将达到170亿美元，超过过去三年中每年的筹集金额。 缺乏大型上市交易。 中国本土市场在去年新资本市场政策实施后有所放缓。然而，2 024年中国本土IPO产生了卓越的回报。有趣的是，2024年中国企业在香港筹集的资 金多于在本土交易所筹集的资金。这种趋势可能延续到2025年。台湾在超过十年里没 有大型IPO，但今年小型上市的速度有所加快。韩国的小型IPO也很常见，但 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to CRL, C&D, China Jinmao, and KE Holdings, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the real estate sector [4][7][20]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that more supportive property policies are expected to reinforce market recovery, particularly in tier-1 and tier-2 cities, driven by lower mortgage rates and successful policy implementations like property vouchers and home purchase subsidies [2][7]. - Site visits to various projects indicate a clear sign of market bottoming, with engaged sales teams and solid sell-through rates despite macro uncertainties [3][7]. - The report highlights a positive sentiment among prospective home buyers, who are financially capable but cautious about leveraging due to economic uncertainties [3]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Centaline's Vice President believes additional policies will be introduced to support the recovery cycle, with a focus on urban renewal and inventory acquisition [2]. - Successful case studies, such as Xiamen, demonstrate the effectiveness of combined policy measures in stimulating demand [2]. Sales and Pricing Strategies - Developers are adopting unaggressive pricing strategies, which are facilitating solid project sell-through rates [3]. - The average downpayment ratio is reported at 40%, with first home mortgage rates at 3.15% and downpayment requirements at 15% [3]. Stock Recommendations - Preferred stocks include CRL (1109 HK, TP HKD36.30), C&D (1908 HK, TP HKD21.20), and China Jinmao (817 HK, TP HKD1.60), all rated "Buy" due to their resilience and strong pricing power [4][20]. - KE Holdings (BEKE US, TP USD26.30) is also highlighted for its market share gains in both primary and secondary markets [4][20].

Global Economic Impact - The 'Liberation Day' trade policy shock on April 2 has significantly weakened the global growth outlook, leading to increased uncertainty in trade policies[2][15] - US average tariff rates have reached their highest level in nearly a century, currently estimated at 17.8%[12][14] - Global growth forecasts have been revised down to 2.3% for both 2025 and 2026, with Australia's growth forecast lowered to 1.6% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026[30][81] Australian Economic Indicators - Local inflation and unemployment rates have aligned with the RBA's February forecasts, with underlying inflation at 2.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, falling back into the RBA's target band[40][41] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% in April 2025, indicating a tight labor market despite weaker growth indicators[41][42] - Retail sales volumes were unchanged in Q1 2025, suggesting a stall in consumer activity following the trade shock[38][43] Monetary Policy Outlook - A 25 basis point (bp) cut in the cash rate to 3.85% is expected on May 20, 2025, with a total of 100bp of cuts anticipated by Q1 2026[5][55] - The RBA's cautious approach to easing is influenced by persistent local inflation concerns rather than immediate growth worries[5][56] - The RBA is likely to provide limited guidance on future rate cuts due to high global economic uncertainty[56][58] Currency and Trade Dynamics - Modest upside for AUD-USD is anticipated as US tariffs on goods from Asia are expected to decrease, improving regional growth outlook[6][65] - The reduction in US tariffs is expected to alleviate pressure on Australia's export-dependent economy, particularly in the APAC region[65][66]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase, with a target price increase to USD 130 from USD 120, implying a 21.4% upside from the current share price of USD 107.11 [6][11][100] Core Insights - NetEase's recent earnings report showed a 25% beat in earnings, a 5% beat in game revenue, and an 11% beat in deferred revenue, leading to a revision of EPS growth to +18% year-on-year in 2025 [2][11] - The strong deferred revenue growth of 19% year-on-year indicates potential for accelerating game revenue growth in the upcoming quarters [2][97] - Upcoming game launches, including Marvel Mystic Mayhem and Destiny Rising, are anticipated to be key focus areas following the annual product launch event [2][11] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, NetEase reported total revenue of RMB 28,829 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7% [91] - Online game revenue grew by 15% year-on-year, driven by strong performances from titles such as Identity V, Where Winds Meet, and Marvel Rivals [94] - The gross profit margin (GPM) for games and related value-added services (VAS) was reported at 67%, with a non-GAAP operating profit of RMB 11,393 million, representing a 34% year-on-year increase [91][94] Game Highlights - Mobile game revenue only fell by 4% year-on-year, outperforming consensus expectations of a 6% decline, thanks to strong performances from Identity V and Where Winds Meet [3][94] - PC game revenue saw an impressive growth of 85% year-on-year, significantly above the consensus estimate of 67%, driven by contributions from WWM PC and Blizzard titles [3][94] - The launch of Once Human mobile resulted in 6 million new users in its first week, boosting the PC version's revenue by 500% [3][94] Margin Discussions - The report notes an increase in games and related VAS gross profit margin quarter-on-quarter, attributed to a reduced focus on non-game businesses and a shift towards profitability [4][94] - The report anticipates that it will take a few quarters for sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue to normalize [4] Valuation Metrics - The report provides estimates for future financial performance, projecting revenue of RMB 116,721 million for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11% [98] - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is 12.6, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [7][14] Pipeline and Future Outlook - The report highlights key upcoming titles such as Ananta, expected to launch in 2026, which could significantly contribute to future revenue streams [2][90] - The successful return of Overwatch in China has set new records for peak concurrent users, indicating strong market demand for NetEase's offerings [94]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hongkong Land (HKL) with a revised target price of USD6.00, up from USD5.23, indicating an upside potential of approximately 18.6% from the current share price of USD5.06 as of May 13, 2025 [5][8][78]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the share price of Hongkong Land has increased by 50% since May 2024, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 27 percentage points, and suggests that the market has not fully accounted for the potential of the company's new corporate strategy announced in October 2024 [2][23]. - The new strategy focuses on simplifying the business by developing premium integrated commercial properties in key Asian cities and targeting long-term recurring income growth [3][37]. - The report identifies four key factors that support a positive outlook for HKL: successful office divestments showcasing capital recycling capabilities, the beginning of a 10-year transformation plan, sustainable dividend growth supported by rental income, and a shift away from being solely a proxy for prime Central office space [3][4][51]. Financial Performance and Projections - The report revises earnings estimates for 2025-2027, with a slight increase of 1.6% for 2025, a decrease of 2.2% for 2026, and a decrease of 0.8% for 2027, reflecting earnings accretion from recent office sales [5][76]. - The estimated NAV per share has been increased to USD10.00 from USD9.18, reflecting an 8.9% increase, while the NAV discount has been narrowed to 40% from 43% [5][77][78]. - The projected dividend per share (DPS) is expected to grow from USD0.23 in 2024 to USD0.44 by 2035, with a payout ratio of 60-80% of recurring income [43][45]. Strategic Initiatives - The report emphasizes the importance of capital recycling, with a target to recycle up to USD10 billion by 2035 and at least USD4 billion by 2027, of which USD1.2 billion has already been recycled as of April 2025 [4][58]. - A share buyback program of USD200 million was initiated in April 2025, with potential for expansion if divestment targets are met [4][59]. - The company aims to double its recurring underlying profit before interest and tax (PBIT) by 2035 and grow its assets under management (AUM) to USD100 billion [45][36]. Market Positioning - The report notes that HKL is transitioning away from being perceived solely as a Central office landlord, with its Central commercial portfolio now accounting for 47% of its valuation, down from two-thirds a decade ago [3][52]. - The company is focusing on high-end commercial properties and has ceased investments in the build-to-sell segment, reallocating capital to integrated commercial property opportunities [37][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BIM, Migros, and Sok, with target prices set at TRY 665 for Migros (down 5%), and unchanged for BIM and Sok [1][3]. Core Insights - The actual revenue growth rate for all participants has been declining since Q3 2024, primarily driven by weaker traffic data. However, companies are expected to achieve better profit margins and cash flow in the coming quarters due to operational leverage [1]. - Same-store sales (LFL) are projected to decline in Q1 2025 due to weakened consumer purchasing power and enhanced base effects. Promotional and marketing activities continue to see high investment, with real revenue growth adjusted for food inflation showing a downward trend since Q3 2024 [1][2]. - Migros has shown slightly better performance with market share growth, while Sok is gradually recovering from a weaker base effect. BIM faces challenges in revenue growth due to low inflation rates for basic consumer goods, although an increase in product lines may support basket growth [1][2][3]. Revenue and Profitability Trends - The industry gross margin trend remains stable to slightly pressured due to increased promotional efforts. Sales cost pressures are expected to be higher in Q1 2025, but operational leverage is anticipated to gradually alleviate this [2]. - EBITDA margins for Sok are expected to increase by 20 basis points year-on-year in Q1 2025, while BIM and Migros are projected to see a cautious decrease of 20 basis points [2][30]. - Cash flow volatility is expected to persist, influenced by sporadic factors and proactive working capital management. Q1 2025 cash flow volatility is attributed to holiday payment impacts and accounts receivable delays [2][35]. Company-Specific Insights - BIM is recognized as the most resilient brand in the Turkish consumer sector, with a positive outlook on the growing scale of its FILE business. The increase in SKU count to 1,000 is expected to support higher basket sizes in the remaining years [3][14]. - Migros continues to gain market share, benefiting from store network expansion and promotional activities. The company is expected to stabilize growth moving forward [14][15]. - Sok is anticipated to recover market share from a low base, with a slight improvement in sales performance [14][15]. Financial Estimates and Adjustments - The report updates the 2024 Turkish food retail model, adjusting estimates based on revised inflation data and store expansion expectations. For BIM, EBITDA margin estimates have been slightly lowered due to ongoing operational expenditure pressures [52]. - Migros is expected to see a slight decline in EBITDA margins due to operational expenditure pressures, while Sok's EBITDA margin expectations remain intact [54][55]. - The financial outlook for each company includes projected sales, EBITDA, and net profit figures for 2025 and beyond, reflecting adjustments based on market conditions and operational challenges [56][59].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for KE Holdings with a target price of USD 26.30, indicating a potential upside of approximately 30% from the current share price of USD 20.23 [5][7][23]. Core Insights - KE Holdings reported a 42% year-on-year growth in revenue and a 6% non-GAAP net profit margin in 1Q25, which exceeded management's guidance but was largely in line with market expectations. The management's guidance for a stable recovery in profitability is viewed positively [2][12]. - The company anticipates a flat secondary home Gross Transaction Value (GTV) and a 10% year-on-year growth in primary home GTV for 2Q25, which is considered conservative. The guidance for a 6.8% non-GAAP operating profit margin in 2025 suggests improved visibility for full-year earnings [2][12]. - Management expressed confidence in maintaining stable commission rates despite concerns about potential cuts in various cities, attributing any potential downside risks more to market competition than regulatory changes [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 1Q25, KE Holdings' total net revenue was RMB 23.328 billion, with a gross profit of RMB 4.821 billion, reflecting a 42% increase in revenue year-on-year [22]. - The company achieved a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 1.393 billion in 1Q25, which was stable compared to the previous quarter [22]. - The report projects total net revenues to grow from RMB 93.457 billion in 2024 to RMB 116.586 billion by 2027, with a consistent increase in operating profit over the same period [13]. Business Segments - The existing home transaction services segment generated RMB 6.870 billion in 1Q25, while new home transaction services contributed RMB 8.075 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 64% [22]. - Home renovation and furnishing services showed a significant improvement in contribution margin, increasing to 32.6% in 1Q25 from 29.8% in 4Q24, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [4][22]. Valuation Metrics - The report maintains a target price based on an unchanged target PE multiple of 23x, applied to the average 2025-26 non-GAAP EPS estimate of RMB 8.44 [5][23]. - The projected PE ratios for the upcoming years are 23.0 for 2024, 19.2 for 2025, and further declining to 13.2 by 2027, reflecting a positive outlook on earnings growth [8][15].

Lupin (LPC IN) Buy: Timely US launches key to sustain growth Operationally in-line 4Q: Revenue at INR56.7bn (+14.2% y-o-y) was in line with HSBCe. India segment sales at INR17.1bn (c31% of 4Q) grew 6.9% y-o-y and Lupin expects its prescription (Rx) business (more than 90% of India sales) to continue to grow at 1.2-1.3x vs the market. US sales at USD245m (c41% of 4Q) grew 17.2% y-o-y in constant currency, helped by the launch of gPred Forte and traction in mirabegron. Gross margin at 69.7% improved 184bp y-o ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Alibaba Group with a target price of USD 176.00, indicating a potential upside of 31.3% from the current share price of USD 134.05 [5][10][49]. Core Insights - The report highlights an improved outlook on Customer Management Revenue (CMR), which accelerated to 12% growth in the March quarter, up from 9% in December, surpassing expectations [1][4]. - The forecast for FY26 CMR has been raised to 8% from 7%, reflecting confidence in continued growth as Alibaba lifts service fee exemptions for SMEs and rolls out a full-platform ad tool [1][10]. - Cloud revenue is expected to grow at 20% year-on-year in FY26, driven by robust AI demand and a commitment to AI capital expenditures [1][2]. - Despite some competitive pressures in local services, top-line estimates for FY26-28 have been increased by 1-2% [1][10]. Financial Performance - For 4QFY25, Alibaba reported revenue of RMB 236.5 billion, a 7% year-on-year increase, which aligns with consensus estimates [4][44]. - Adjusted EBITA rose 36% year-on-year to RMB 32.6 billion, exceeding internal estimates but slightly below consensus [4][44]. - The adjusted EBITA margin improved to 13.8%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to enhanced CMR growth [4][44]. Revenue Breakdown - CMR growth was a standout at 12% year-on-year, driven by online GMV growth and an improving take rate [44]. - Cloud revenue increased by 18% year-on-year, with public cloud revenue growth maintaining triple-digit year-on-year growth during 4QFY25 [44]. - The International Digital Commerce Group saw a 22% year-on-year revenue increase, supported by strong cross-border performance [44]. Shareholder Returns - Alibaba repurchased USD 0.6 billion of stock in 4QFY25, totaling USD 11.9 billion for FY25, which represents about 6.1% of the outstanding shares [44]. - A two-part dividend of USD 2.0 per ADS has been approved, consisting of a regular cash dividend of USD 1.05 and a one-time extraordinary cash dividend of USD 0.95, implying a yield of approximately 1.5% [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for SFA Engineering with an unchanged target price of KRW21,000, reflecting the actual 1Q25 earnings and higher new order estimates for 2025 [5][8][13]. Core Insights - SFA Engineering reported 1Q25 earnings with an operating profit of KRW29 billion, turning to profit quarter-on-quarter but down 30% year-on-year, with sales of KRW398 billion, down 14% quarter-on-quarter and 47% year-on-year [2][22]. - New orders for SFA were KRW184 billion, 7% weaker than expected, with EV battery orders making up 67% of the total [2][5]. - The report anticipates a steady recovery in new orders for 2025, raising estimates by 22% to around KRW1 trillion, driven by recovery in equipment orders from battery customers and growth in display and semiconductor orders [3][5]. Financial Performance - 1Q25 sales were 8% lower than estimates due to weaker earnings at key subsidiaries, particularly in battery equipment installations and semiconductor outsourced assembly and testing [2][22]. - Profitability was 2% weaker than estimates due to poor performance at subsidiaries, although SFA Engineering recorded stronger margins of 11% compared to the estimated 9% [2][5]. - The report projects sluggish sales of KRW1.9 trillion for 2025, down 7% year-on-year, with an operating profit of KRW179 billion, indicating limited recovery at key subsidiaries [4][5]. Order Trends - The report highlights a recovery in battery orders, expected to increase by 16% year-on-year to KRW408 billion, driven by continued investment from Korean customers [14]. - Display orders are projected to double to KRW210 billion, fueled by robust demand in IT-OLED capacity expansion, particularly from Chinese customers [14]. - Semiconductor orders are expected to reach KRW229 billion, up 30% year-on-year, due to ongoing investments in back-end packaging capacity from Korean and US-based memory customers [14]. Valuation Metrics - The report introduces 2027 estimates and raises 2025/26 operating profit estimates by 9% and 1% respectively, maintaining a target PE multiple of 6.7x [5][9]. - The target price implies a downside of approximately 3.9% from the current share price of KRW21,850 [8][50]. - Financial ratios indicate a projected PE of 8.7x for 2025 and a dividend yield of 2.5% [9][17].