China Real Estate Equities Day 2 tour wrap: More policies to anchor recovery China Centaline roundtable – more policies to reinforce market stabilization. We had a roundtable discussion with Mr. LIU Yuan, Vice President of Property Research at Centaline, to discuss the latest housing market dynamics. Contrary to the market view, he believes more policies will be announced to reinforce this recovery cycle. In spite of a pullback in April, Mr Liu's tone is more optimistic and he is confident that tier-1 and t ...

亚洲首次公开募股：香港复苏，东盟落后。 ◆ 经过长时间的放缓，香港的首次公开募股（IPO）正在复苏 。中国大陆公司现在在香港筹集的股权比在国内更多。 ◆ 2024年，印度是全球最大的首次公开募股（IPO）市场，按 交易量计算位居世界首位，按价值计算位居第二，并且有望 迎来又一个强劲的年份。 ◆ 在东盟地区，首次公开募股（IPO）活动放缓，马来西亚除 外。在新加坡，退市公司的数量多于首次公开募股。 飞航荷兰人 香港反弹。 经过数年的平淡活动，香港的IPO市场今年有所回升，反映了股市的逆 转。今年迄今为止，公司筹集的资金量是2024年同期总额的两倍多，未来几个月的I PO项目管道也是有三年以来最繁忙的。按目前的运行速度，我们预计今年IPO筹集 的资金总额将达到170亿美元，超过过去三年中每年的筹集金额。 缺乏大型上市交易。 中国本土市场在去年新资本市场政策实施后有所放缓。然而，2 024年中国本土IPO产生了卓越的回报。有趣的是，2024年中国企业在香港筹集的资 金多于在本土交易所筹集的资金。这种趋势可能延续到2025年。台湾在超过十年里没 有大型IPO，但今年小型上市的速度有所加快。韩国的小型IPO也很常见，但 ...

The RBA Observer Multi-Asset Expect a 25bp cut in May Global backdrop plays a bigger role Paul Bloxham Chief Economist, Australia, New Zealand & Global Commodities HSBC Bank Australia Limited paulbloxham@hsbc.com.au +61 2 9255 2635 Jamie Culling Since the RBA's board last met, the global economy and financial markets have had tumultuous times. The cause has been the 'Liberation Day' trade policy shock on 2 April, and the almost daily shifts in the global trade policy environment since then. As we see it, th ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase, with a target price increase to USD 130 from USD 120, implying a 21.4% upside from the current share price of USD 107.11 [6][11][100] Core Insights - NetEase's recent earnings report showed a 25% beat in earnings, a 5% beat in game revenue, and an 11% beat in deferred revenue, leading to a revision of EPS growth to +18% year-on-year in 2025 [2][11] - The strong deferred revenue growth of 19% year-on-year indicates potential for accelerating game revenue growth in the upcoming quarters [2][97] - Upcoming game launches, including Marvel Mystic Mayhem and Destiny Rising, are anticipated to be key focus areas following the annual product launch event [2][11] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, NetEase reported total revenue of RMB 28,829 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7% [91] - Online game revenue grew by 15% year-on-year, driven by strong performances from titles such as Identity V, Where Winds Meet, and Marvel Rivals [94] - The gross profit margin (GPM) for games and related value-added services (VAS) was reported at 67%, with a non-GAAP operating profit of RMB 11,393 million, representing a 34% year-on-year increase [91][94] Game Highlights - Mobile game revenue only fell by 4% year-on-year, outperforming consensus expectations of a 6% decline, thanks to strong performances from Identity V and Where Winds Meet [3][94] - PC game revenue saw an impressive growth of 85% year-on-year, significantly above the consensus estimate of 67%, driven by contributions from WWM PC and Blizzard titles [3][94] - The launch of Once Human mobile resulted in 6 million new users in its first week, boosting the PC version's revenue by 500% [3][94] Margin Discussions - The report notes an increase in games and related VAS gross profit margin quarter-on-quarter, attributed to a reduced focus on non-game businesses and a shift towards profitability [4][94] - The report anticipates that it will take a few quarters for sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue to normalize [4] Valuation Metrics - The report provides estimates for future financial performance, projecting revenue of RMB 116,721 million for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11% [98] - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is 12.6, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [7][14] Pipeline and Future Outlook - The report highlights key upcoming titles such as Ananta, expected to launch in 2026, which could significantly contribute to future revenue streams [2][90] - The successful return of Overwatch in China has set new records for peak concurrent users, indicating strong market demand for NetEase's offerings [94]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hongkong Land (HKL) with a revised target price of USD6.00, up from USD5.23, indicating an upside potential of approximately 18.6% from the current share price of USD5.06 as of May 13, 2025 [5][8][78]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the share price of Hongkong Land has increased by 50% since May 2024, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 27 percentage points, and suggests that the market has not fully accounted for the potential of the company's new corporate strategy announced in October 2024 [2][23]. - The new strategy focuses on simplifying the business by developing premium integrated commercial properties in key Asian cities and targeting long-term recurring income growth [3][37]. - The report identifies four key factors that support a positive outlook for HKL: successful office divestments showcasing capital recycling capabilities, the beginning of a 10-year transformation plan, sustainable dividend growth supported by rental income, and a shift away from being solely a proxy for prime Central office space [3][4][51]. Financial Performance and Projections - The report revises earnings estimates for 2025-2027, with a slight increase of 1.6% for 2025, a decrease of 2.2% for 2026, and a decrease of 0.8% for 2027, reflecting earnings accretion from recent office sales [5][76]. - The estimated NAV per share has been increased to USD10.00 from USD9.18, reflecting an 8.9% increase, while the NAV discount has been narrowed to 40% from 43% [5][77][78]. - The projected dividend per share (DPS) is expected to grow from USD0.23 in 2024 to USD0.44 by 2035, with a payout ratio of 60-80% of recurring income [43][45]. Strategic Initiatives - The report emphasizes the importance of capital recycling, with a target to recycle up to USD10 billion by 2035 and at least USD4 billion by 2027, of which USD1.2 billion has already been recycled as of April 2025 [4][58]. - A share buyback program of USD200 million was initiated in April 2025, with potential for expansion if divestment targets are met [4][59]. - The company aims to double its recurring underlying profit before interest and tax (PBIT) by 2035 and grow its assets under management (AUM) to USD100 billion [45][36]. Market Positioning - The report notes that HKL is transitioning away from being perceived solely as a Central office landlord, with its Central commercial portfolio now accounting for 47% of its valuation, down from two-thirds a decade ago [3][52]. - The company is focusing on high-end commercial properties and has ceased investments in the build-to-sell segment, reallocating capital to integrated commercial property opportunities [37][38].

16 May 2025 土耳其食品零售商 盈利能力面临压力 ◆ 自2024年第三季度以来，所有参与者的实际营收增长率都在 下降，这主要是由更弱的流量数据所推动。 71 569445882 ◆ 然而，凭借运营杠杆，公司似乎将在未来几个季度实现更佳的 利润率和现金流。 ◆ 维持对BIM、Migros、Sok的买入评级，估值合理；BIM、So k的目标价保持不变，将Migros的目标价下调5%至TRY665 消费者面临压力，交通量减弱： 同店销售额（LFL）在2025年第一季度因消费者购 买力减弱及基数效应增强，于我们覆盖的三家土耳其食品零售商中呈现下降。促销与 营销活动持续高投入，且自2024年第三季度后，经食品通胀调整后的实际营收增长 呈下滑趋势。Migros表现略优，市场份额有所增长，而Sok则在逐步复苏（较弱的基 数效应）。基础消费品通胀率较低对BIM的营收增长构成挑战，但产品线增至1000种 （原为900种）或能推动更高商品篮子增长。鉴于通缩计划的特殊性，该行业实现有 意义的实际同店销售恢复增长具有挑战性。 短期利润率仍将承受压力： 行业毛利率趋势在促销力度加大方面保持稳定至轻微受 压。2025年第一季度 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for KE Holdings with a target price of USD 26.30, indicating a potential upside of approximately 30% from the current share price of USD 20.23 [5][7][23]. Core Insights - KE Holdings reported a 42% year-on-year growth in revenue and a 6% non-GAAP net profit margin in 1Q25, which exceeded management's guidance but was largely in line with market expectations. The management's guidance for a stable recovery in profitability is viewed positively [2][12]. - The company anticipates a flat secondary home Gross Transaction Value (GTV) and a 10% year-on-year growth in primary home GTV for 2Q25, which is considered conservative. The guidance for a 6.8% non-GAAP operating profit margin in 2025 suggests improved visibility for full-year earnings [2][12]. - Management expressed confidence in maintaining stable commission rates despite concerns about potential cuts in various cities, attributing any potential downside risks more to market competition than regulatory changes [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 1Q25, KE Holdings' total net revenue was RMB 23.328 billion, with a gross profit of RMB 4.821 billion, reflecting a 42% increase in revenue year-on-year [22]. - The company achieved a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 1.393 billion in 1Q25, which was stable compared to the previous quarter [22]. - The report projects total net revenues to grow from RMB 93.457 billion in 2024 to RMB 116.586 billion by 2027, with a consistent increase in operating profit over the same period [13]. Business Segments - The existing home transaction services segment generated RMB 6.870 billion in 1Q25, while new home transaction services contributed RMB 8.075 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 64% [22]. - Home renovation and furnishing services showed a significant improvement in contribution margin, increasing to 32.6% in 1Q25 from 29.8% in 4Q24, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [4][22]. Valuation Metrics - The report maintains a target price based on an unchanged target PE multiple of 23x, applied to the average 2025-26 non-GAAP EPS estimate of RMB 8.44 [5][23]. - The projected PE ratios for the upcoming years are 23.0 for 2024, 19.2 for 2025, and further declining to 13.2 by 2027, reflecting a positive outlook on earnings growth [8][15].

Lupin (LPC IN) Buy: Timely US launches key to sustain growth Operationally in-line 4Q: Revenue at INR56.7bn (+14.2% y-o-y) was in line with HSBCe. India segment sales at INR17.1bn (c31% of 4Q) grew 6.9% y-o-y and Lupin expects its prescription (Rx) business (more than 90% of India sales) to continue to grow at 1.2-1.3x vs the market. US sales at USD245m (c41% of 4Q) grew 17.2% y-o-y in constant currency, helped by the launch of gPred Forte and traction in mirabegron. Gross margin at 69.7% improved 184bp y-o ...

Alibaba Group (BABA US) Buy: Improved outlook on CMR CMR monetization is going strong, accelerating to 12% in the March quarter (from 9% in December), beating expectations. We raise our FY26 CMR estimate to 8% (from 7%) as we think this trajectory has room to go as BABA continues to lift service fee exemptions to SMEs and further roll out the full-platform ad tool in coming quarters. We are confident that cloud revenue can continue to accelerate to meet our 20% y-o-y growth in FY26e. Robust AI demand has li ...

SFA Engineering (056190 KS) Hold: 1Q review – Slow recovery Subsidiaries still dragging down margins in 1Q: SFA reported 1Q earnings with OP of KRW29bn (turn to profit q-o-q, down 30% y-o-y) and sales of KRW398bn (down 14% q-o-q, 47% y-o-y). Sales were 8% lower than our estimates from weaker earnings at key subsidiaries; CIS was lower from the delayed recovery in battery equipment installations and semiconductor outsourced assembly and testing (OSAT) for SFA semiconductor. New orders came in 7% weaker than ...