美联储威廉姆斯：人工智能将改变生产率增长和劳动力需求。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美联储缪萨勒姆：目前尚未在宏观数据中看到生产率增长。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve must analyze data to determine if artificial intelligence is driving productivity growth, enabling faster economic growth without triggering inflation or necessitating policy tightening [1] Group 1: Economic Implications - The Trump administration believes that AI investment is already contributing to productivity increases, potentially creating an economic environment similar to the 1990s tech boom, characterized by moderate inflation and accelerated growth [1] - Daly noted that most macro productivity studies have found limited evidence of significant impacts from AI so far, suggesting that improvements from sector-specific investments may take time to manifest [1] Group 2: Future Considerations - There is a possibility that the economy has not yet reached a critical point where comprehensive changes from AI are evident, indicating that substantial economic transformation may require a longer timeframe to materialize [1]

旧金山联储行长玛丽·戴利表示，尽管目前尚无太多迹象表明人工智能正在从根本上改变美国经济，但 政策制定者必须对新技术将产生影响的征兆保持开放态度。 来源：环球市场播报 "在变革完全显现之前识别发展迹象需要更深入挖掘，依赖能够预示转型的分类资讯，"戴利说。 戴利周二在为Silicon Valley Leadership Group活动准备的讲话中表示："很容易看到各种可能性，但更难 判断它将何时以及如何演进。" 她提到前美联储主席格林斯潘在上世纪90年代的前瞻性观察，当时他指出计算机和互联网将深刻改变工 作与商业模式，在不引发通胀的情况下推动增长。戴利表示人工智能可能会遵循类似的路径，但她补充 称，要在总体数据中看到人工智能的全面影响仍需时日。 美联储官员试图评估人工智能将对经济和生产率增长产生多大影响，而生产率被视为在不推高通胀的情 况下实现增长的关键动力。 ...

来源：滚动播报 旧金山联储总裁戴利周二表示，美联储须深入分析数据，以判断人工智能是否正在推动生产率增长，从 而使经济在不引发通胀、也无需美联储收紧政策给经济"踩刹车"的情况下实现更快增长。戴利指 出："迄今多数宏观生产率研究发现，人工智能的显著影响证据有限。"这可能是因为各行业企业局部投 资带来的改进成效尚需时日显现。她补充道："也可能是我们尚未达到临界点"，经济层面的全面变革需 要更长时间才能显现。 ...

布林约尔松先从一个"反直觉"的宏观修正说起：美国劳工统计局的基准修订显示，总薪资就业人数增长 被向下修正约40.3万个岗位。同时，美国经济产出并没有走弱，实际GDP仍然强劲，四季度增速达到 3.7%。 他把这种"产出高、投入的劳动却更少"的组合，称为生产率增长的典型特征，并直接写道："This decoupling — maintaining high output with significantly lower labour input — is the hallmark of productivity growth."即：同样甚至更多的活儿，用更少的人做完了，生产率自然会上去。 英国《金融时报》（Financial Times）最近发了一篇评论文章，主题很直接：AI带来的生产力"起飞"， 可能终于能在宏观统计里看见了。 文章作者是埃里克·布林约尔松（Erik Brynjolfsson），他是斯坦福大学数字经济实验室主任，也是一家 研究AI与组织效率的公司Workhelix的联合创始人，既站在学术研究的一线，也能看到企业真实的AI落 地情况。 在这篇文章里，他抛出的核心判断是：美国可能正在从"AI投入期" ...

Group 1: Australian Economic Outlook - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Deputy Governor, Andrew Hagger, warned that inflation remains "too high," posing a significant challenge for the interest rate-setting committee, which cannot allow this situation to persist for too long [1][6] - Hagger indicated that part of the price increase reflects rising demand in the economy against supply constraints, suggesting that the risk of sustained high inflation may continue [1][6] - The RBA's measures to achieve an economic soft landing post-pandemic have resulted in the Australian economy being closer to a balanced state compared to some international peers, with any economic activity surge potentially driving up prices [1][6] Group 2: Currency Movements - The Australian dollar (AUD) experienced a significant rise, breaking the 0.7100 mark, supported by Hagger's hawkish comments that heightened expectations for RBA rate hikes [4][10] - The AUD is projected to continue its upward trend, making it one of the best-performing currencies this year [1][6] - The rise in commodity prices, including oil and copper, has also provided support for the AUD [4][10] Group 3: Federal Reserve Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate until May, with a potential rate cut following the appointment of a new chair in June [2][7] - Over 70% of surveyed economists expressed concerns about the significant loss of independence of the Federal Reserve [2][7] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair has led to mixed opinions among economists regarding his policy stance, with early indications leaning towards tightening but recent comments suggesting a possible inclination towards rate cuts [2][8] Group 4: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have been on the rise, recovering above the 5100 mark, driven by persistent risk aversion in the market and central banks increasing their gold reserves [3][9] - However, strong U.S. non-farm payroll data has tempered expectations for Fed rate cuts, limiting the rebound potential for gold [3][9] Group 5: USD/CAD Currency Dynamics - The USD/CAD pair saw a slight increase, trading around 1.3580, supported by technical buying near the 1.3500 level and a strong dollar index following robust non-farm payroll data [5][11] - Concerns over oil supply have limited the rebound potential for the USD/CAD pair [5][11]

根据市场预期，将于周三公布的1月非农就业报告预计显示，美国雇主当月新增就业约6.9万人，失业率 料维持在4.4%。该报告还将包含历史修正数据，预计会对截至2025年3月的一年期非农就业数据作出较 大幅度的下调。 哈塞特还指出，用于衡量维持失业率稳定所需月度新增就业规模的"盈亏平衡就业增速"，目前已"明显 低于"前总统拜登任内水平。这一变化反映出，在人口结构和生产率发生变化的背景下，美国劳动力市 场的运行条件已出现调整。 智通财经APP获悉，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特周一表示，随着人口增长放缓，未来几个月 美国新增就业人数可能会低于过去一段时间的水平，但这并不意味着经济走弱。 哈塞特在接受采访时称，"在当前GDP保持较高增速的背景下，新增就业人数略有下降是可以预期 的。"他强调，若未来连续公布的就业数据低于市场以往的习惯水平，"不应因此恐慌"，原因在于人口 增速下降，而生产率增长"正在迅速上升"。 ...

美联储主席提名人凯文·沃什虽以"利率过高"的鲜明立场迎合了白宫短期降息的政治诉求，但其政策理 念的内在逻辑，尤其是通过缩减美联储资产负债表来达成宽松效果的路径，与白宫预期的扩张性财政议 程存在根本性冲突。 沃什获得提名，源于他直言不讳地批评美联储政策利率过高且屡犯错误，这精准回应了当局的愿望。然 而，其政策框架的基石建立在两个可能引发矛盾的关键点上：其一，他主张的降息逻辑高度依赖对生产 率增长的乐观预测，这在经济现实中面临重大不确定性。 其二，他坚持维护央行独立性的传统立场，这与白宫倾向于对美联储施加直接影响的长远期待形成了本 质张力。尤其是在通胀已连续五年超过目标水平的背景下，这种理念冲突可能迅速激化，使其与白宫 的"蜜月期"极为短暂。 资产负债表策略的制约 生产率冲击的不确定性 沃什支持降息的核心逻辑建立在对生产率增长将带来通缩效应的预期之上，认为减税、放松监管及人工 智能将刺激供给扩张，在提升产出的同时抑制通胀，从而为降低利率创造空间。 然而，这一路径存在多重不确定性与内在矛盾。首先，其预期的生产率冲击目前仍属理论推演，尚未在 现实经济数据中转化为确定的通缩趋势。其次，即便该冲击发生，也可能伴随消费与投 ...

Group 1 - The White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett supports Treasury Secretary Scott Benczkowski's call for residency requirements for Federal Reserve Bank president appointments [1][2] - Benczkowski announced on December 3 that he will push for a new rule requiring candidates for regional Fed presidents to have lived in their district for at least three years [2] - Hassett expressed concern that only those living in Washington and New York have voting rights on interest rates within the current Fed structure [2] Group 2 - Hassett anticipates that Fed policymakers will lower interest rates in the upcoming meeting, stating that "now is a good time for cautious rate cuts" [2] - He predicts a resurgence in economic growth by early 2026, driven by recovery from recent government shutdown impacts and new factory outputs [2] - Hassett forecasts a potential 4% productivity growth next year due to the acceleration of artificial intelligence investments [3]