Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant stock buybacks by various companies in Hong Kong, indicating a trend of companies returning capital to shareholders through repurchases, with notable amounts recorded in December 30. Group 1: Stock Buybacks - On December 30, a total of 61 Hong Kong stocks were involved in company buybacks, with 7 stocks having buyback amounts exceeding 10 million Hong Kong dollars [1] - Tencent Holdings, China COSCO Shipping Holdings, and China Feihe had the largest buyback amounts, with Tencent repurchasing 636 million Hong Kong dollars, COSCO 61.05 million Hong Kong dollars, and Feihe 36.34 million Hong Kong dollars [1] Group 2: Year-to-Date Buyback Data - As of December 30, 268 Hong Kong stocks have conducted buybacks this year, with 72 stocks having cumulative buyback amounts exceeding 100 million Hong Kong dollars [1] - The companies with the highest cumulative buyback amounts for the year include Tencent Holdings at 79.401 billion Hong Kong dollars, HSBC Holdings at 30.257 billion Hong Kong dollars, and AIA Group at 17.693 billion Hong Kong dollars [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,845.14, down by 9.46 points or 0.04% [1] - The index had a trading volume of 36.86 million shares, with a high of 25,919.17 and a low of 25,815.14 [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 123.376, up by 0.31% compared to the previous close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 599.528, down by 0.08% compared to the previous close [2] Individual Stock Movements - Tencent Holdings: Latest price HKD 600.000, up by HKD 3.500 or 0.59%, ADR price HKD 599.528, down by HKD 0.472 [3] - Alibaba Group: Latest price HKD 144.500, up by HKD 1.200 or 0.84%, ADR price HKD 143.326, down by HKD 1.174 [3] - HSBC Holdings: Latest price HKD 123.000, up by HKD 1.100 or 0.90%, ADR price HKD 123.376, up by HKD 0.376 [3] - AIA Group: Latest price HKD 81.650, down by HKD 0.550 or 0.67%, ADR price HKD 82.070, up by HKD 0.420 [3] - Meituan: Latest price HKD 104.300, up by HKD 0.100 or 0.10%, ADR price HKD 103.410, down by HKD 0.890 [3] - Ctrip Group: Latest price HKD 571.000, up by HKD 11.500 or 2.06%, ADR price HKD 562.723, down by HKD 8.277 [3] - BYD Company: Latest price HKD 97.600, up by HKD 0.500 or 0.51%, ADR price HKD 97.496, down by HKD 0.104 [3]

Global Economic Outlook - The global economic growth rate is expected to remain stable, with a slight slowdown from 2.8% in 2025 to 2.7% in 2026, influenced by geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation [4] - Strong investment in artificial intelligence is anticipated to support investment and trade growth over the next two years [2][4] Trade Dynamics - Global goods and services trade is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2025, accelerating from 3.0% in 2024, but is expected to slow to 2.0% in 2026 due to various factors including reduced consumer spending in the U.S. [5] - Tariff uncertainties have decreased, yet trade policies and geopolitical risks continue to pose challenges [5] Asian Export Resilience - Despite fluctuations in tariff risks, Asia's overall export performance has exceeded expectations, remaining stronger than other regions [6] - The export growth rate in Asia is expected to slow in 2026 but will still outperform the global average [7] China's Economic Strategy - In 2026, China will focus on expanding domestic demand as a key policy priority, with structural reforms and increased openness to foreign investment [2][8] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes improving the household consumption rate, which was 39.9% in 2024, as a critical goal for high-quality development [8] Investment and Fiscal Policies - Fixed asset investment is expected to recover, particularly in infrastructure, supported by new policy financial tools [9] - The fiscal deficit target for China in 2026 is likely to remain at 4%, with local government bonds issued to support consumption and major projects [9] Innovation and Competitiveness - Innovation capability is projected to become a core advantage for China, attracting foreign investment and enhancing service trade exports [12] - The government aims to regulate supply-side competition to ensure efficient resource allocation and promote fair competition [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC forecasts stable global economic growth by 2026, with a slowdown in trade export growth, while strong investments in artificial intelligence will support investment and trade growth in the next two years [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - HSBC's Chief Economist for Greater China, Liu Jing, indicates that a series of easing policies implemented since Q4 2024 will support economic activity, allowing China to achieve a target economic growth of around 5% for the full year of 2025 [1] - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," during which China's economy is expected to continue structural transformation and maintain reasonable growth, with domestic demand, including consumption and investment, becoming the main driver of growth [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference has proposed to maintain a necessary fiscal deficit, with HSBC estimating that China's fiscal deficit target for 2026 may remain at a relatively high level of 4% [1] - The issuance scale of local government special bonds and special treasury bonds is expected to be comparable to that of 2025 to support consumption and major project investments [1] - New policy financial tools are likely to continue playing a "quasi-fiscal" role [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy - There may still be room for a further interest rate cut of 20 basis points in 2026, along with a potential reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has short-term support at the 25,000 point level, with expectations of two interest rate cuts in 2026 following the Federal Reserve's recent 0.25% rate cut, which aligns with market predictions [1] - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing investment and addressing supply-demand imbalances, with a slight increase in growth signals compared to previous meetings [1] - The HSI has seen significant gains this year, leading to profit-taking incentives as trading volume decreases [1] Company News - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is acquiring a 49% stake in Northern SMIC for a total consideration of 40.6 billion RMB, enhancing its asset quality and business synergy [3][10] - Meituan is distributing 45 million large consumption vouchers to consumers, aiming to boost sales during the promotional period [3][10] - Wall Street's recent performance shows a decline, with the Dow and Nasdaq both down by 0.5% [5] Industry Insights - The AI chip sector is gaining traction, with companies like Birran Technology seeing oversubscription of over 1,890 times in their public offering [3][10] - The electric vehicle export from China surged by 87% year-on-year in November, indicating strong demand in international markets [8] - The Chinese government plans to lower import tariffs on key components and battery materials starting January 1, 2026, to support technological advancement and economic growth [8] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve has adjusted its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2.3%, while lowering the inflation forecast to 2.4% [3] - Hong Kong's exports rose by 18.8% and imports by 18.1% in November, exceeding market expectations [8] - The profit of state-owned enterprises in China decreased by 3.1% year-on-year in the first eleven months of the year, with total revenue reaching 75.63 trillion RMB [8]

Core Viewpoint - As of December 29, a total of 55 Hong Kong stocks have conducted share buybacks, with 9 stocks having buyback amounts exceeding 10 million HKD [1] Group 1: Buyback Activity - Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group-W, and China COSCO Holdings recorded the largest buyback amounts, with 636 million HKD, 151 million HKD, and 47.9 million HKD respectively [1] - A total of 264 Hong Kong stocks have engaged in share buybacks this year, with 72 stocks having cumulative buyback amounts exceeding 100 million HKD [1] Group 2: Cumulative Buyback Amounts - Tencent Holdings, HSBC Holdings, and AIA Group have the highest cumulative buyback amounts for the year, totaling 78.765 billion HKD, 30.257 billion HKD, and 17.693 billion HKD respectively [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,711.51, up by 76.28 points or 0.30% from the previous close [1] - The index reached a high of 25,735.23 and a low of 25,590.36 during the trading session [1] - The trading volume was 37.5794 million shares, with an average price of 25,662.80 [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 122.589, an increase of 0.57% from the previous close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 598.176, up by 0.28% from the previous close [2] Individual Stock Movements - Tencent Holdings (00700) reported a latest price of HKD 596.500, down by HKD 6.500 or 1.08% [3] - Alibaba Group (09988) closed at HKD 143.300, down by HKD 2.700 or 1.85% [3] - HSBC Holdings (00005) reported a price of HKD 121.900, down by HKD 1.900 or 1.53% [3] - China Construction Bank (00939) increased by HKD 0.060 or 0.79%, closing at HKD 7.620 [3] - Xiaomi Group (01810) decreased by HKD 0.640 or 1.63%, closing at HKD 38.580 [3] - AIA Group (01299) closed at HKD 82.200, down by HKD 1.050 or 1.26% [3] - NetEase (099999) increased by HKD 3.000 or 1.41%, closing at HKD 216.200 [3] - Meituan (03690) closed at HKD 104.200, up by HKD 1.000 or 0.97% [3] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398) increased by HKD 0.100 or 1.63%, closing at HKD 6.230 [3] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) closed at HKD 408.200, down by HKD 1.800 or 0.44% [3] - Ping An Insurance (02318) increased by HKD 0.200 or 0.30%, closing at HKD 66.400 [3] - Bank of China (03988) closed at HKD 4.440, up by HKD 0.010 or 0.23% [3] - Ctrip Group (09961) decreased by HKD 4.000 or 0.71%, closing at HKD 559.500 [3] - BYD Company (01211) increased by HKD 3.500 or 3.74%, closing at HKD 97.100 [3] - CITIC Limited (00267) increased by HKD 0.060 or 0.50%, closing at HKD 12.050 [3] - Baidu (098888) closed at HKD 119.100, down by HKD 0.400 or 0.33% [3] - JD.com (09618) decreased by HKD 0.800 or 0.71%, closing at HKD 112.000 [3] - China Hongqiao Group (01378) decreased by HKD 0.560 or 1.73%, closing at HKD 31.760 [3] - Hang Seng Bank (00011) closed at HKD 153.600, down by HKD 0.300 or 0.19% [3] - Kuaishou Technology (01024) decreased by HKD 0.800 or 1.24%, closing at HKD 63.800 [3] - Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) closed at HKD 94.900, down by HKD 1.700 or 1.76% [3] - Pop Mart International (09992) decreased by HKD 0.300 or 0.15%, closing at HKD 199.900 [3] - BeiGene (06160) increased by HKD 0.300 or 0.16%, closing at HKD 183.800 [3] - China Merchants Bank (03968) increased by HKD 0.550 or 1.07%, closing at HKD 52.150 [3]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC forecasts global economic growth to be 2.8% in 2025 and slightly slow to 2.7% in 2026, influenced by geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation, but supported by AI investments and fiscal expansions from major economies [1] Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - HSBC predicts global economic growth rates of 2.8% for 2025 and 2.7% for 2026, indicating a slight slowdown [1] - Factors such as geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and slowing labor growth are expected to pressure growth potential [1] - Structural deployment in AI infrastructure and fiscal expansions from major countries may offset some negative factors [1] Group 2: Trade Projections - Global goods and services trade export growth is expected to accelerate to 3.8% in 2025 from 3.0% in 2024, but will slow to 2.0% in 2026 due to various factors including the effects of previous "export rush" [2] - Despite reduced tariff uncertainties, U.S. personal consumption expenditure growth is expected to moderate, impacting trade growth [2] Group 3: U.S. Economic Conditions - HSBC anticipates that U.S. core inflation will remain sticky in 2026 due to supply-side shocks from tariffs and resilient service demand driven by high-income consumers [2] - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain some resilience in the first half of 2026 due to strong AI-related capital expenditures and the end of government shutdowns [2] - HSBC believes the Federal Reserve will likely maintain the current federal funds rate target range in 2026 without further rate cuts [2] Group 4: Asian Economic Outlook - After strong growth in 2025, Asian export growth is expected to slow in 2026 but will still outperform the global average [3] - Lower inflation in some emerging economies in Asia may allow for continued implementation of accommodative monetary policies [3] - Countries like China are expected to adopt more proactive fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign institutions are optimistic about the Chinese stock market for 2026, shifting their focus from "valuation repair" in 2025 to "profit growth" in 2026, driven by accelerating corporate earnings, macro policy support, and RMB appreciation [1][2][5]. Investment Trends - As of December 20, 2025, global investment in Chinese assets through ETFs has seen a net inflow of $83.1 billion, with the technology sector receiving the most inflow at $9.5 billion [1][9]. - Active foreign capital is expected to return to the Chinese stock market, with some institutions already increasing their positions in preparation for 2026 [10][12]. Earnings Forecasts - Goldman Sachs predicts a 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by the end of 2027, with corporate earnings expected to grow by 14% in 2026 and 12% in 2027 [3]. - UBS forecasts an increase in the Hang Seng Tech Index target to 7,100 points and the MSCI China Index target to 100 points by the end of 2026, indicating significant upside potential [3]. Valuation Insights - Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs believe there is still about a 10% potential for valuation repair in the Chinese stock market, which will support market growth [4][5]. - JPMorgan has upgraded its rating on the Chinese market to "overweight," citing reasonable valuations and light positions among international investors [4]. Sector-Specific Opportunities - The technology sector is highlighted as a core focus for profit growth, with opportunities in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing [6]. - Traditional industries are also attracting foreign investment, with improvements in state-owned enterprise profitability and dividend increases acting as a dual engine for market growth [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the Chinese stock market will enter a new phase dominated by fundamentals, with a focus on structural investment opportunities [2][5]. - The anticipated return of active foreign capital is expected to be driven by improving corporate fundamentals, a weaker dollar, and the attractiveness of RMB assets [12].

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 Index has experienced a strong bull run in 2023, continuing the upward trend that began in 2022, reaching a record high of $6,930, which represents a 17% increase from January levels, contributing trillions to market capitalization [1] Group 1 - The S&P 500 Index achieved a record high of $6,930 [1] - The index increased by 17% from its January levels [1] - The bull run has been ongoing since 2022 [1]