来源：市场资讯 （来源：申万宏源宏观） 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：特朗普下调食品关税，高市早苗推出财政刺激草案 权益资产多数下跌，大宗商品多数下跌。恒生科技下跌7.2%，纳指下跌2.7%；10Y美债收益率下行8.0bp至4.06%；美元指数上涨0.9%至100.15，离岸人民 币微贬至7.11；WTI原油大跌3.4%至58.1美元/桶，COMEX黄金持平于4085.2美元/盎司。 特朗普下调食品关税，日本高市早苗推出财政刺激草案。11月13日，美国宣布与阿根廷、厄瓜多尔、危地马拉、萨尔瓦多达成贸易框架协议，下调食品关 税。11月21日，日本政府公布21.3万亿日元综合经济刺激草案，旨在通过民生补贴、危机管理投资、国防支出拉动GDP。 9月美国非农就业超预期，但失业率上行，美联储10月纪要显示官员观点分化。美国9月非农新增就业人数为11.9万人，超市场预期，但失业率上行至 4.4%；美联储10月会议纪要显示，"许多"（many）参会者支持保持利率不变，仅几位（several）参会者认为降息是合适的。 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰"。 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：特朗普下调食品关 ...

日本首相高市早苗最近的激进言论背后，这个国家正以惊人速度突破和平宪法束缚，而经济命脉却依赖着它公然挑战的对象。 日本首相高市早苗在国会公然宣称"台湾有事"可能构成日本可行使集体自卫权的"存亡危机事态"，暗示可能武力介入台海问题。这一言论立即在日本国内外 引发震动，日本股市随之大跌，特别是旅游和消费类股首当其冲。 日本法政大学政治学教授白鸟浩一针见血地指出："股价持续下跌，反映了市场对中日关系恶化的担忧。对日本而言，中国是不可或缺的，是最大的贸易伙 伴国。" 高市早苗上台后，迅速推出一系列激进安保政策，其步伐之快、范围之广令人咋舌。 日本政府宣布将修改"防卫装备转移三原则"的实施方针，取消对防卫装备出口的部分限制。这意味日本生产的杀伤性武器将能更自由地流向国际市场。 更引人瞩目的是，高市政府计划将原定于2027财年实现的"防卫费占国内生产总值2%"的目标提前至本财年内达成。对于一个债务总额已达GDP两倍多的国 家来说，这一决定格外惊人。 日本还图谋发展核动力潜艇，并考虑修改"无核三原则"中不引进核武器的原则。这些动向预示着日本战后安保政策正在发生根本性转变。 近年来，日本已悄悄构筑了相当可观的进攻能力。日本政府 ...

Group 1: Trade Agreement Outcomes - The unexpected trade agreement reached during the summit includes a total investment plan of $350 billion from South Korea to the U.S., with $200 billion in cash investments and $150 billion allocated for shipbuilding cooperation under the "Make American Shipbuilding Great Again" initiative [3][4] - The agreement stipulates a reduction in automotive tariffs from 25% to 15%, aligning with the rates negotiated by Japan and the U.S. Other categories such as pharmaceuticals and wooden products will receive most-favored-nation treatment, while certain materials will be subject to zero tariffs [3][4] - Semiconductor tariffs will be set at a level not lower than that of Taiwan to ensure the competitiveness of South Korean companies [3][4] Group 2: Defense and Security Cooperation - The summit resulted in a new consensus on defense and security, with South Korea planning to enhance its defense capabilities through increased defense budgets and the development of its defense industry [4] - South Korea aims to initiate a nuclear-powered submarine project to improve maritime deterrence and strategic mobility, which was acknowledged by President Trump, who agreed to establish follow-up consultation mechanisms [4] - The strategic cooperation will focus on nuclear submarine propulsion systems, shipbuilding industries, and defense equipment [4] Group 3: Diplomatic Context and Reactions - The summit was marked by a high level of hospitality, with South Korea welcoming President Trump with a 21-gun salute and a special gold tie presented to him by President Yoon Suk-yeol, symbolizing the "golden future" of the Korea-U.S. alliance [5][6] - Despite the celebratory atmosphere, there were protests nearby, indicating some domestic dissent regarding the summit and its outcomes [6] - The timing of North Korea's missile test was interpreted by experts as a strategic move, coinciding with the summit, while also leaving room for future dialogue despite rejecting Trump's meeting proposal [7][8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down 641 points, a decline of 2.48%, and accumulated a weekly drop of 1,043 points or 3.97% [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 243 points or 4.05%, with a weekly loss of 499 points or 7.98% [2] - The trading volume for the day was 314.62 billion, with a net inflow of 6.30 billion from northbound trading [2] Group 2: Company Performance - HSBC Holdings (00005) closed down 1.9% at 100.9 HKD, while AIA Group (01299) fell 2.2% to 69.05 HKD [3] - Semiconductor companies like SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) saw declines of 6.5% and 6.9%, respectively [3] - BYD Electronics (00285) was the worst-performing blue chip, dropping 8.1% to 37.74 HKD [3] Group 3: Economic and Regulatory Developments - The Financial Secretary of Hong Kong, Paul Chan, emphasized the importance of attracting U.S. businesses and talent to invest in Hong Kong, highlighting the city's favorable business environment [6] - The Insurance Authority has classified AIA and Prudential as Domestic Systemically Important Insurers (D-SII), which will subject them to enhanced regulatory requirements [8] - The People's Bank of China Governor, Pan Gongsheng, discussed the need for multilateral cooperation in light of increasing global economic challenges [9] Group 4: Retail Sector Insights - Chow Tai Fook (01929) reported a 4.1% year-on-year increase in retail value for the second fiscal quarter, with same-store sales in Hong Kong and Macau rising by 6.2% [11] - Xtep International (01368) experienced low single-digit growth in retail sales in mainland China for the third quarter, with inventory turnover of approximately 4 to 4.5 months [14] Group 5: Financing Activities - Zhengli New Energy (03677) announced a placement of 45.92 million new H shares at a discount of 7.89% to raise approximately 504 million HKD for various projects [12] - Aneng Logistics (09956) received a conditional proposal for potential privatization from a consortium led by Dazhong Capital and Temasek [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has expressed strong dissatisfaction with the recent unilateral trade measures imposed by the United States, particularly the "301" investigation and related restrictions, which are seen as detrimental to both Chinese industries and global supply chain stability [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Measures - The Chinese side has actively engaged in discussions with the U.S. regarding the "301" investigation, maintaining a constructive stance and proposing cooperation suggestions, but the U.S. has remained uncooperative [1]. - The U.S. has implemented 20 measures against China in a short span of 20 days, severely harming Chinese interests and disrupting the atmosphere of economic talks [2]. - The U.S. has extended its export control entity list to include thousands of Chinese companies, which has further escalated tensions [2]. Group 2: Impact on Industries - The U.S. claims that China's recent measures will broadly affect multiple industries, including semiconductors, AI, smartphones, and defense [3]. - China's export control measures on rare earths are aimed at preventing illegal use in weapons and maintaining national security, rather than targeting specific countries [4]. Group 3: Response and Future Actions - China emphasizes that its export control measures are lawful and necessary for national security, and it is willing to facilitate compliant trade through optimized licensing processes [4]. - The Chinese government has communicated its policy objectives to various countries to reduce misunderstandings and is open to dialogue to address mutual concerns [2][3].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,831 points, down 145 points or 0.61% [1][5] - The market turnover decreased to 82.799 billion, with net inflows of 484 million in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1][5] - The US stock market saw declines, with the Dow Jones down 91.99 points or 0.20%, and the S&P 500 down 25.69 points or 0.38% [2] Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8%, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50%, indicating overall economic resilience [3] - The composite PMI has remained above the expansion threshold since January 2023, suggesting ongoing economic growth [3] Investment Recommendations - Continued focus on sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and industrial software is advised due to their growth potential [3] - Attention is also recommended for undervalued state-owned enterprises with high dividends and the upstream non-ferrous metals sector benefiting from anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] - The semiconductor industry in Hong Kong is highlighted as a key area for investment, particularly companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC [9] Company Highlights - The report mentions a significant partnership between OpenAI and AMD, which could impact the semiconductor industry positively [9] - The report also notes that several A-share companies are planning to list in Hong Kong, indicating a vibrant IPO market [9] Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 31%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index has risen by 47% [15] - Notable stock performances include Tencent Holdings, which has increased by 56% over the past year, while Alibaba has seen a 79% rise [15]

Group 1: Manufacturing Industry Overview - Taiwan's manufacturing industry maintained a "recession" signal in August, with over 60% of industries experiencing sluggishness [1] - The manufacturing sentiment index for August was 9.24, an increase of 0.88 from July, but still indicated recession with a blue light [1] - The improvement in the index was attributed to strong shipments of technology products, sustained order momentum, and a depreciating New Taiwan Dollar [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The semiconductor industry benefited from strong demand for artificial intelligence applications and increased stocking of consumer electronics, resulting in a shift from a low mood yellow-blue light to a stable green light in August [1] - The machinery sector saw increased production due to demand from the semiconductor industry, but faced challenges from weak performance in overseas markets, leading to a negative year-on-year production index [1] - Despite a slight improvement from over 80% in July, the proportion of industries in recession (blue light) remained above 60%, highlighting an M-shaped development phenomenon in the industry [1] Group 3: Employment and Economic Impact - A report indicated that 398 companies and 8,505 individuals implemented reduced working hours, the highest number in a year and a half, with manufacturing being the most affected sector [2] - Among those affected, 8,070 individuals in the manufacturing sector accounted for approximately 95% of the total [2] - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival saw a decline in companies planning to issue bonuses, with only 41.7% of surveyed companies indicating they would provide bonuses, the lowest in 12 years [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article introduces a comprehensive index map that includes various commonly used stock indices, their codes, selection rules, industry distribution, average and median market capitalization of constituent stocks, and the number of constituent stocks, which will be regularly updated for easy reference [1][2]. Group 1: Types of Indices - The index map includes several categories of stock indices: broad-based indices, strategy indices, industry indices, thematic indices, and overseas indices [4][8]. Group 2: Broad-based Indices - Examples of broad-based indices include: - CSI 300 (000300.SH) with an average market cap of 206.67 billion and 300 constituent stocks [5]. - CSI 500 (000905.SH) with an average market cap of 32.77 billion and 500 constituent stocks [5]. - CSI 800 (000906.SH) with an average market cap of 97.98 billion and 800 constituent stocks [5]. - CSI 1000 (000852.SH) with an average market cap of 14.42 billion and 1000 constituent stocks [5]. - CSI 2000 (932000.CSI) with an average market cap of 5.93 billion and 2000 constituent stocks [5]. Group 3: Strategy Indices - Strategy indices include: - CSI Dividend (000922.CSI) reflecting high dividend yield companies with an average market cap of 193.25 billion and 100 constituent stocks [6]. - Shanghai Dividend (000015.SH) with an average market cap of 275.17 billion and 50 constituent stocks [6]. - Shenzhen Dividend (399324.SZ) with an average market cap of 105.30 billion and 40 constituent stocks [6]. Group 4: Industry Indices - Industry indices are designed to reflect specific sectors, such as: - CSI Consumer (000932.SH) focusing on major consumer industry stocks with an average market cap of 125.14 billion and 40 constituent stocks [7]. - CSI Medical (000933.SH) which includes companies related to the pharmaceutical industry [7]. Group 5: Thematic Indices - Thematic indices are tailored to specific investment themes, such as: - CSI Innovation (399989.SZ) which selects companies involved in innovative drug development [7]. - CSI Green Energy focusing on companies in the renewable energy sector [7].

Group 1 - The Trump administration is conducting a significant tariff investigation on furniture imports, with tariffs to be determined within 50 days [2] - The imposition of tariffs across various sectors, including furniture, is expected to have profound impacts on inflation and global supply chains [3] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney announced the cancellation of several retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, while maintaining tariffs on U.S. automobiles, steel, and aluminum, indicating a complex trade relationship between the U.S. and Canada [3] Group 2 - Fitch Ratings reported that U.S. consumer spending is expected to slow significantly in the first half of 2025, influenced by trade policy uncertainty and stock market volatility [4] - Despite a rebound in Q2 GDP data, the underlying growth structure is not ideal, with consumer and investment growth showing signs of slowing down due to ongoing tariff impacts [4] - The potential for continued downward pressure on U.S. consumer spending and private investment growth is anticipated as a result of Trump's tariff policies [4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's actions are closely monitored by global capital markets, with calls for a 100 basis point rate cut this year from a prominent candidate for the Fed chair position [5] - Fed Chair Powell's recent comments suggest a potential shift towards a more dovish stance, opening the door for rate cuts in September [6] - Concerns about an aging population impacting economic growth and inflation have been raised, with labor shortages potentially leading to increased wage demands [8]

Core Insights - Singapore's non-oil domestic exports in July fell by 4.6% year-on-year, exceeding analyst expectations of a 1.8% decline, primarily due to a drop in pharmaceutical exports [1][1][1] - The Singapore government raised its economic growth forecast for 2025 from a range of 0.0%-2.0% to 1.5%-2.5% following better-than-expected performance in the first half of the year [1][1][1] - Despite a free trade agreement with the U.S. and a trade deficit with the U.S., Singapore is still subject to a 10% tariff, which may impact future economic growth [1][1][1] Export Performance - Non-oil exports to the U.S., China, and Indonesia decreased in July, while exports to the EU, Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong increased [1][1][1] - The Singapore Economic Development Board maintained its forecast for non-oil export growth at 1%-3% for the year, anticipating some weakness in the second half of 2025 [1][1][1] Trade Policy Concerns - Singapore's Prime Minister expressed uncertainty regarding potential increases in U.S. tariffs on specific industries such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, highlighting the pressure on small open economies due to rising trade barriers [1][1][1]