3）现金减少、普通股股东权益增加。汇丰此前持有恒生银行67%的股权，资产负债表已对恒生银行进 行并表。本次收购预计使得汇丰控股现金和净资产减少136 亿美元，同时此前少数股东权益变为普通股 股东权益，普通股股东权益增加73 亿美元。总体而言，当期普通股净资产减少、普通股净利润增加， ROTE 会有小幅增加。 机构：中金公司 研究员：严佳卉/吕松涛/张帅帅 事件 10 月9 日早8 点，汇丰公告计划以每股155 港币的价格以现金收购恒生银行6.8 亿股（前一日恒生银行收 盘价119 港币，对应1.4x P/B，收购价较公开价溢价30%，对应1.8x P/B；收购价高于2022 年3 月以来恒 生银行最高收盘价154 港币），收购总价1060 亿港币（约136 亿美元），收购后汇丰对恒生的持股比例 由此前的63%提升至100%。该收购待恒生少数股东中"75%持股者同意"+"少于10%持股者反对"方可推 进1。若进展顺利，公司预计2026 年中之前逐步完成私有化。 评论 收购目的在于加强协同、简化运营。汇丰公告表示，恒生在香港本土拥有深厚传统与独特地位，私有化 后不会取消恒生银行品牌与独立法人地位，计划仍继续通过汇 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Holdings announced a proposal to privatize Hang Seng Bank for a cash consideration of HKD 106 billion (approximately USD 13.6 billion), which will impact its CET1 capital ratio and lead to a temporary suspension of stock buybacks [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - The cash consideration for the acquisition is HKD 106 billion, equating to HKD 155 per share for minority shareholders [1] - The transaction will result in a decrease of 125 basis points in HSBC's CET1 capital ratio [1] Group 2: Financial Implications - To maintain the CET1 ratio within target ranges, HSBC will suspend stock buybacks for three quarters, which is estimated to reduce buyback scale by approximately USD 7 billion [1] - Morgan Stanley projects that by the end of Q2 2026, HSBC's CET1 ratio will be around 14% [1] Group 3: Performance Metrics - HSBC's Hong Kong business is expected to report a ROTE of 38% for 2024, while Hang Seng Bank's ROE is projected at only 11% for the same period [1] - Short-term price adjustments for HSBC are anticipated, with Morgan Stanley expecting a mid-single-digit percentage decline [1] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term challenges posed by the transaction, Morgan Stanley believes it will have positive long-term effects for HSBC [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reported that HSBC Holdings (00005) announced a pre-tax profit of $15.81 billion for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 26.7% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - HSBC's pre-tax profit excluding significant items for Q2 was $9.162 billion, exceeding the company's expectations by 10% [1] - Revenue increased by 5%, with net interest income (NII) up by 2% and fee-based and other income rising by 11% [1] - Operating expenses met expectations, and pre-provision profit grew by 10% [1] - Impairment losses were 12% higher than market expectations, particularly due to $400 million in expenses related to Hong Kong commercial real estate (CRE) [1] - Loans and deposits grew by 3% to 4% quarter-on-quarter, supported by a strong British pound [1] Group 2: Capital and Dividends - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio stood at 14.6%, in line with expectations [1] - A stock buyback plan of $3 billion (1.1% of market value) was announced, compared to UBS's estimate of $2.5 billion and market consensus of $2.75 billion [1] - The dividend per share was set at $0.10, meeting expectations [1] Group 3: Future Guidance - UBS maintained its guidance for HSBC for FY2025, with net interest income expected at $42 billion, in line with market consensus [2] - Target cost growth is projected at 3%, approximately $33.3 billion, also matching market consensus [2] - Loan losses are anticipated at around 40 basis points, consistent with market consensus [2] - Average return on tangible equity (ROTE) is expected to be in the mid-teens for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, with market consensus at 15.5%, 15%, and 15.5% respectively [2] - The CET1 capital ratio is expected to remain between 14% and 14.5% in the medium term [2] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Concerns were raised by investors regarding credit provisions for Hong Kong real estate and HSBC's ability to maintain its net interest income guidance for FY2025 [3] - Despite higher loan loss expectations, the outlook for non-interest income in Hong Kong was positive, showing a 22% increase or $182 million [3] - HSBC's current valuation is estimated at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5 times for FY2026, compared to Standard Chartered's 8.8 times, with a dividend yield of 5% and a tangible asset ratio of 1.4 times [3]