高盛发布研报称，上调渣打集团(02888)评级从"中性"升至"买入"，同时上调目标价21%，由168港元升 至203港元。该行认为，尽管渣打集团今年以来港股股价升83%，但认为仍有进一步重估空间。 该行指，渣打集团向股东提供具有吸引力的回报，2026年预期总收益率(股息+回购)达8.4%。该行认 为，凭借强大的资本创造能力，渣打集团长期总派息比率，可望维持在80%。因此将2028-2029年的股 票回购预测从每年25亿美元上调至28亿美元，并将2026-2028年的股息比率从此前的固定21%，分别上 调至25%/30%/35%。修订后的预测显示，2026-2028年的平均总派息比率为75%。该行预计，这种积极 的资本管理策略亦将进一步支持ROTE提升及估值重估。 高盛预计，到今年年底，渣打集团的基础风险调整后股东权益回报率(ROTE)将达14.6%，超管理层13% 的ROTE指引，并在2027年进一步升至15%，2028年则达15.7%。因此，该行预计渣打集团将于2025年 财报或2026年5月举行的投资者日活动中，上调其中期ROTE指引，这或为该股股价的进一步催化剂。 ...

Summary of NatWest Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NatWest Group - **Industry**: Banking and Financial Services Key Points Economic Environment - The economic backdrop is characterized by cautious optimism despite volatility in budget news and a slight increase in unemployment to 5% from 4.7%[2][3] - Wage growth remains high, contributing to strong consumer confidence, particularly in retail deposits and mortgage markets[4][5] Financial Performance - NatWest's stock has performed well, trading at 7.5 times P/E and 1.3 times book value, with a return on tangible equity (ROTE) of nearly 19%[2] - The bank has upgraded its income guidance to approximately GBP 16.3 billion for the year, with expectations of ROTE exceeding 18%[10] Lending and Deposits - The bank has seen over 4% compound growth in lending over the past seven years, with a current market share of 12.6% in mortgages and 11% in unsecured credit[13][19] - The mortgage market has grown from GBP 240 billion to GBP 285 billion year-on-year, indicating strong consumer movement and confidence[18] - Retail deposit growth is supported by a saving rate of over 10%, with competitive pricing in the market[22][23] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income has been bolstered by strong customer activity, particularly in foreign exchange (FX) and capital markets, benefiting from market volatility[9][29] - The structural hedge is expected to provide an additional GBP 1 billion in incremental net interest income (NII) next year[12] Market Share and Competition - NatWest holds a 25% market share in corporate deposits and nearly 20% in corporate lending, with a 6% growth in the corporate lending book year-to-date[27] - The bank is aware of increasing competition from fintechs and neobanks, which have improved customer service across the industry[61][62] Wealth Management - Assets under management (AUM) in the private banking and wealth management segment have increased by 15% to GBP 56 billion, with a target of achieving a cost-to-income ratio in the mid-60s and ROTE above 20% by 2027[34][35] - The bank aims to enhance its wealth management services by leveraging its existing customer base and improving referral systems[36][37] Capital Management - NatWest's capital target range is currently set at 13%-14%, with ongoing discussions about potential adjustments in light of regulatory changes and capital requirements[46][50] - The bank has increased its dividend payout ratio to 50%, indicating a strong commitment to returning capital to shareholders while maintaining flexibility for growth investments[52][53] Cost Management - Cost growth is projected to be around 2% this year, with a focus on maintaining cost discipline and driving operating leverage across all business segments[54][55] - Significant investments in technology, including AI and data management, are expected to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency[56][57] Regulatory Environment - The bank supports strong regulation but has expressed concerns about overregulation in certain areas, advocating for a balanced approach that fosters growth while ensuring stability[63][64] - Anticipation of upcoming regulatory reviews and potential changes in capital requirements is a key focus for the bank[49][50] Future Outlook - NatWest remains cautiously optimistic about growth prospects, driven by strong consumer confidence and strategic investments in technology and customer service[67] - The bank is committed to exploring inorganic growth opportunities in the wealth management sector while focusing on organic growth strategies[38][42] This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the NatWest Group conference call, highlighting the company's performance, market position, and strategic outlook.

Core Insights - HSBC Holdings reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 4.8% and a pre-tax profit growth of 4.5% for Q1-3 2025, with an upward revision of the 2025 ROTE guidance to above 15% [1][2] - The company announced a third dividend payout of $0.1 per ordinary share, totaling approximately $1.72 billion [1] - The bank's total assets, loans, and deposits showed year-on-year growth of 4.4%, 1.4%, and 4.6% respectively as of September, indicating a recovery in credit demand in the UK [1][2] Financial Performance - The net interest margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 1.56%, with a slight increase from Q2 [1][2] - The bank's net interest income guidance for 2025 was raised from $42 billion to $43 billion, supported by effective interest rate hedging and optimized funding costs [2] - Non-interest income grew by 17.2% year-on-year for Q1-3 2025, driven by a 24.9% increase in wealth management revenue [2] Asset Quality and Capital Position - As of September, the non-performing loan ratio was 2.50% with a provision coverage ratio of 42%, indicating stable asset quality [2][3] - The core Tier 1 capital ratio decreased slightly to 14.5%, with expectations of further pressure due to the privatization of Hang Seng Bank [3] - The company aims for a target price-to-book ratio of 1.50 for 2026, with projected net profits of $22.862 billion, $23.490 billion, and $25.804 billion for 2025-2027 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][6]. Core Views - The company has shown stable revenue growth driven by a solid wealth management performance and a recovery in credit demand in the UK [2][4]. - The net interest margin has stabilized and is expected to improve, leading to an upward revision of the net interest income guidance for 2025 from $42 billion to $43 billion [3][6]. - The company has increased its return on tangible equity (ROTE) guidance for 2025 to above 15% [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue increased by 4.8% year-on-year, and pre-tax profit rose by 4.5% [1]. - Non-interest income grew by 17.2% year-on-year, with wealth management business revenue increasing by 24.9% [4]. - The company attracted new investment assets worth $73 billion, with $42 billion coming from Asia [4]. Asset Quality - As of September, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 2.50%, with a provision coverage ratio of 42% [5]. - The company expects credit costs to remain around 0.40% for 2025, with ongoing pressure in the Hong Kong commercial real estate sector [5]. Market Position and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve a target price of HKD 143.08 for 2026, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.50 times [6][8]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is $22.86 billion, $23.49 billion, and $25.80 billion respectively, reflecting a growth of 6.9%, 3.3%, and 6.5% [6].

Core Viewpoint - CICC has adjusted HSBC Holdings' revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025E downwards due to slowing non-interest income growth, while raising the forecasts for 2026E based on resilient net interest margins [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - HSBC's 3Q25 revenue reached $17.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%, with net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders rising 1% to $6.2 billion, exceeding expectations [2] - The main driver for the better-than-expected performance was the net interest income, which grew 3% quarter-on-quarter and 2% year-on-year, supported by rapid deposit growth [3] - Non-interest income grew 8% year-on-year in 3Q25, although this was a slowdown from previous growth rates of over 20% [4] Group 2: Wealth Management and Cost Control - Wealth management income surged 29% year-on-year in 3Q25, driven by strong performance in the Hong Kong stock market and significant growth in fund distribution and insurance business [5] - Operating expenses increased by 3.5% year-on-year to $8.4 billion, which is slower than revenue growth, aligning with the company's annual cost growth expectation of around 3% [6] Group 3: Credit Quality and Return on Equity - The provision for credit losses was $1 billion in 3Q25, a 2% increase year-on-year, with credit costs remaining stable at 41 basis points [7] - The company has raised its 2025 return on tangible equity (ROTE) guidance to "over 15%" due to improved net interest and wealth management income [9]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC announced a plan to acquire 680 million shares of Hang Seng Bank at HKD 155 per share, totaling HKD 106 billion (approximately USD 13.6 billion), increasing its ownership from 63% to 100% [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition price represents a 30% premium over the previous day's closing price of HKD 119, corresponding to a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.8x [1] - The acquisition is subject to approval from 75% of Hang Seng's minority shareholders and less than 10% opposition [1] - HSBC aims to complete the privatization of Hang Seng by mid-2026 if the process goes smoothly [1] Group 2: Strategic Rationale - The purpose of the acquisition is to enhance synergy, simplify operations, and reduce costs, while maintaining Hang Seng's brand and independent legal status [1] - HSBC's CEO expressed confidence in the Hong Kong market and Hang Seng's operational capabilities, indicating that the acquisition will strengthen collaboration and capture growth opportunities [1] - Post-acquisition, Hang Seng's customers will have access to a broader range of HSBC products and services, enhancing competitiveness and digital service capabilities [1] Group 3: Financial Impact - The acquisition is expected to reduce HSBC's core Tier 1 capital ratio by approximately 165 basis points, but the removal of minority shareholder equity deductions will increase it by about 40 basis points, resulting in a net impact of 125 basis points [3] - HSBC's ordinary share EPS is projected to increase as the profits attributable to Hang Seng's minority shareholders will no longer be deducted, leading to an increase in dividend per share (DPS) and a slight rise in dividend yield [2][3] - The acquisition will lead to a decrease in cash and net assets by USD 13.6 billion, while ordinary shareholders' equity will increase by USD 7.3 billion [3] Group 4: Market Reaction and Valuation - Following the announcement, HSBC's stock price dropped by 6%, reflecting the market's concern over the short-term impact on dividends and buyback rates [4] - The acquisition is expected to lower the estimated return on equity (ROE) and buyback return rate, with the 2026 estimated return dropping from 9.4% to 7.5% [2][4] - The estimated buyback amount for 2026 is revised down from USD 10 billion to USD 5 billion, resulting in a decrease in buyback return rate from 4.1% to 2.0% [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Holdings announced a proposal to privatize Hang Seng Bank for a cash consideration of HKD 106 billion (approximately USD 13.6 billion), which will impact its CET1 capital ratio and lead to a temporary suspension of stock buybacks [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - The cash consideration for the acquisition is HKD 106 billion, equating to HKD 155 per share for minority shareholders [1] - The transaction will result in a decrease of 125 basis points in HSBC's CET1 capital ratio [1] Group 2: Financial Implications - To maintain the CET1 ratio within target ranges, HSBC will suspend stock buybacks for three quarters, which is estimated to reduce buyback scale by approximately USD 7 billion [1] - Morgan Stanley projects that by the end of Q2 2026, HSBC's CET1 ratio will be around 14% [1] Group 3: Performance Metrics - HSBC's Hong Kong business is expected to report a ROTE of 38% for 2024, while Hang Seng Bank's ROE is projected at only 11% for the same period [1] - Short-term price adjustments for HSBC are anticipated, with Morgan Stanley expecting a mid-single-digit percentage decline [1] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term challenges posed by the transaction, Morgan Stanley believes it will have positive long-term effects for HSBC [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reported that HSBC Holdings (00005) announced a pre-tax profit of $15.81 billion for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 26.7% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - HSBC's pre-tax profit excluding significant items for Q2 was $9.162 billion, exceeding the company's expectations by 10% [1] - Revenue increased by 5%, with net interest income (NII) up by 2% and fee-based and other income rising by 11% [1] - Operating expenses met expectations, and pre-provision profit grew by 10% [1] - Impairment losses were 12% higher than market expectations, particularly due to $400 million in expenses related to Hong Kong commercial real estate (CRE) [1] - Loans and deposits grew by 3% to 4% quarter-on-quarter, supported by a strong British pound [1] Group 2: Capital and Dividends - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio stood at 14.6%, in line with expectations [1] - A stock buyback plan of $3 billion (1.1% of market value) was announced, compared to UBS's estimate of $2.5 billion and market consensus of $2.75 billion [1] - The dividend per share was set at $0.10, meeting expectations [1] Group 3: Future Guidance - UBS maintained its guidance for HSBC for FY2025, with net interest income expected at $42 billion, in line with market consensus [2] - Target cost growth is projected at 3%, approximately $33.3 billion, also matching market consensus [2] - Loan losses are anticipated at around 40 basis points, consistent with market consensus [2] - Average return on tangible equity (ROTE) is expected to be in the mid-teens for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, with market consensus at 15.5%, 15%, and 15.5% respectively [2] - The CET1 capital ratio is expected to remain between 14% and 14.5% in the medium term [2] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Concerns were raised by investors regarding credit provisions for Hong Kong real estate and HSBC's ability to maintain its net interest income guidance for FY2025 [3] - Despite higher loan loss expectations, the outlook for non-interest income in Hong Kong was positive, showing a 22% increase or $182 million [3] - HSBC's current valuation is estimated at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5 times for FY2026, compared to Standard Chartered's 8.8 times, with a dividend yield of 5% and a tangible asset ratio of 1.4 times [3]