Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to increased macroeconomic uncertainty, making the risk-return profile of Hong Kong conglomerates more sensitive to external factors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - UBS assumes that the Middle East conflict will remain unresolved until the end of Q3 this year, with reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and an average Brent crude oil price of $132.5 per barrel for the year [1][2]. Group 2: Company Ratings - UBS sets a target price of HKD 67 for Cheung Kong (00001) with a "Buy" rating, while Swire Properties (00019) receives a "Neutral" rating with a target price of HKD 72.7 [1][2]. Group 3: Financial Projections - UBS estimates that Cheung Kong's net asset value and potential earnings for 2026 could increase by 9% and 66%, respectively, primarily due to its subsidiary Cenovus Energy benefiting from rising oil prices [3]. - Conversely, Swire Properties' net asset value and potential earnings for 2026 may decline by 19% and 26%, respectively, due to fuel cost pressures affecting its subsidiary Cathay Pacific (00293) [3].

Group 1 - UBS reports that geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased macroeconomic uncertainty, making Hong Kong conglomerates more sensitive to external impacts [1] - The firm assumes that the Middle East conflict will remain unresolved until the end of Q3 this year, with reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and an average Brent crude oil price of $132.5 per barrel for the year [1] - UBS sets a target price of HKD 67 and a "Buy" rating for Cheung Kong (00001), while Swire Properties (00019) receives a "Neutral" rating with a target price of HKD 72.7 [1] Group 2 - UBS estimates that Cheung Kong's net asset value and potential earnings for 2026 could increase by 9% and 66%, respectively, mainly due to its subsidiary Cenovus Energy benefiting from rising oil prices [1] - In contrast, Swire Properties' net asset value and potential earnings for 2026 may decline by 19% and 26%, respectively, due to fuel cost pressures on its subsidiary Cathay Pacific (00293) [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased macroeconomic uncertainty, making the risk-return profile of Hong Kong conglomerates more sensitive to external factors [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The assumption is that the Middle East conflict will persist until the end of Q3 this year, leading to reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and an average Brent crude oil price of $132.5 per barrel for the year [1] Group 2: Company Analysis - Longfor's net asset value and potential earnings for 2026 are estimated to increase by 9% and 66%, respectively, primarily due to its subsidiary Cenovus Energy benefiting from rising oil prices [1] - Swire Pacific's net asset value and potential earnings for 2026 may decline by 19% and 26%, respectively, due to fuel cost pressures affecting its subsidiary Cathay Pacific [1] Group 3: Ratings and Targets - UBS sets a target price of HKD 67 for Longfor with a "Buy" rating [1] - UBS sets a target price of HKD 72.7 for Swire Pacific with a "Neutral" rating [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the pressure on US stock markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at 46,021 points, down 203 points or 0.44% [8] - It emphasizes the importance of finding "valuation safety + short-term catalysts" amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are affecting inflation and supply chains [8] - The report suggests a strategic asset allocation towards defensive and resource-related assets while maintaining cash reserves to navigate market adjustments [8] Market Overview - The US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 7.1 basis points to 4.329% [8] - Asian stock markets experienced declines, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 524 points or 2.02% to close at 25,500 points [12] - The report notes that Brent crude oil prices surged over 10%, reflecting heightened concerns about inflation and potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [10][12] Company Performance - Alibaba reported a 36% year-on-year revenue growth in its cloud segment, with total revenue for the quarter reaching 43.3 billion RMB [12] - AIA Group's operating profit after tax increased by 7% to 7.136 billion USD, with a 12% rise in earnings per share [12] - JD Cloud announced it would not follow the trend of price increases for its core products, ensuring cost stability for customers [12] Economic Data - The US Department of Labor reported a decrease in initial jobless claims to 205,000, down 8,000 from the previous week [10] - February new home sales in the US fell sharply by 17.6% month-on-month, with an annualized rate of 587,000 units, significantly below expectations [10] - The report indicates that foreign holdings of US Treasury securities increased to 9.31 trillion USD, an 8% year-on-year rise, primarily driven by Japan, the UK, and China [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to Swire Properties (00019) with a target price of HKD 72.7 [1] Core Insights - Swire Properties reported a 5% year-on-year increase in recurring core profit to HKD 9.8 billion, which was 4% lower than the bank's forecast, primarily due to weaker-than-expected contributions from the beverage business [1] - The company announced a 13% year-on-year increase in annual dividend per share to HKD 3.8, which was unexpected and indicates a payout ratio of 53% of recurring core profit, projected to be 51% in 2024 [1] - Management reiterated a progressive dividend policy based on the recovery of the aviation business over the past five years, expecting the payout ratio to remain above 50% of recurring core profit, with annual single-digit growth in dividend per share [1] - The net debt ratio is expected to improve from 22.1% in December 2024 to 20.6% at the end of last year [1] - The report anticipates an 8% year-on-year growth in underlying EBITDA, benefiting from the inclusion of beverage business performance from Thailand and Laos starting October 2024 [1] - Dividend income from joint ventures and associates is expected to increase by 3%, mainly reflecting the dividend distribution from Cathay Pacific [1] - The report projects continued improvement in cash flow for Swire Properties this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Swire Pacific (00019) will sell its stake in Cathay Pacific (00293) through a placement at HKD 11.74 per share, raising HKD 1.789 billion. This sale is due to Cathay Pacific's repurchase of Qatar Airways' previous 9.6% stake, restoring its shareholding closer to historical levels. After the sale, Swire's actual holding in Cathay Pacific is expected to decrease to 45.12% [1] Group 1 - Swire Pacific's sale of Cathay Pacific shares is expected to increase its market value by approximately 0.7% [1] - The company's consolidated net debt ratio may improve from 20.6% at the end of last year to 20% [1] - The sale is considered similar to the recent share sale by another strategic shareholder, China National Aviation (601111) (00753) [1] Group 2 - Swire Pacific remains confident in its aviation business despite the share sale [1]

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，太古A(00019)宣布将透过配售方式，以每股11.74港元出售其持有 的国泰航空(00293)股权，销售所得17.89亿港元。太古表示，配售股份是因为国泰航空回购卡塔尔航空 先前持有的9.6%股权后，将其持股比例恢复至更接近历史水平。出售后太古在国泰航空实际持股比例 料降至45.12%。 瑞银估计有关出售将使太古市值增加约0.7%，公司综合净负债比率亦可能从去年底20.6%改善至20%。 该行认为出售与另一间战略股东中国国航(00753)上月出售国泰航空股份情况类似，且太古对其航空业 务仍充满信心。 ...

该行认为配售价相当于1.2倍2027日历年预测市账率，或6.7倍2027日历年预测市盈率。虽然市场可能对 此作出负面解读，但此项出售很可能是为了调整太古股份在国泰航空的持股。此前，在国泰航空向卡塔 尔航空回购股份前，其持股比例为45%。 里昂发布研报称，太古A(00019)今日(13日)开市前公布，以每股11.74港元配售1.53亿股国泰航空(00293) 股份，作价较昨日收市价折让9.6%。出售完成后，太古股份将持有27.97亿股国泰航空股份，约占已发 行股本45.12%。太古股份将从是次配售收回所得款项净额17.89亿港元，并录得出售收益3.65亿港元。 配售预计不迟于本月17日完成。 ...

该行认为配售价相当于1.2倍2027日历年预测市账率，或6.7倍2027日历年预测市盈率。虽然市场可能对 此作出负面解读，但此项出售很可能是为了调整太古股份在国泰航空的持股。此前，在国泰航空向卡塔 尔航空回购股份前，其持股比例为45%。 智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，太古A(00019)今日(13日)开市前公布，以每股11.74港元配售1.53 亿股国泰航空(00293)股份，作价较昨日收市价折让9.6%。出售完成后，太古股份将持有27.97亿股国泰 航空股份，约占已发行股本45.12%。太古股份将从是次配售收回所得款项净额17.89亿港元，并录得出 售收益3.65亿港元。配售预计不迟于本月17日完成。 ...

公司认为透过配售事项筹集资金对公司具有裨益，将可增加其营运资金、进一步强化其资产负债表及提 高其财务灵活性。 【财华社讯】太古股份公司Ａ(00019.HK)公布，于2026年3月12日，公司拟透过配售代理按每股11.74港 元配售国泰航空(00293.HK)约1.53亿股份，相当于已发行国泰航空股份(不包括库存国泰航空股份)总数 约2.52%。配售价相当于国泰航空股份于2026年3月12日(即配售协议订立日期)于联交所所报收市价每股 12.99港元折让约9.6%。 预期公司将从配售事项获得的所得款项净额(经扣除相关费用及开支后)约为17.89亿港元。公司拟将配售 事项所得款项净额用作一般营运资金用途。集团预期就配售事项录得约3.65亿港元收益。于配售事项完 成后，公司将于已发行国泰航空股份总数(不包括库存国泰航空股份)中拥有约45.12%权益。 太古股份公司Ａ今日早间开盘后一度张超6%，截至发稿，涨5.68%，报87.45港元；国泰航空跌2.85%， 报12.62港元。 本文源自：财华网 ...