Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 met expectations, with revenue and other income increasing by 0.43% year-on-year to HKD 10.621 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.96% to HKD 6.125 billion [2][3] - The main business remains stable, with a 2.6% year-on-year increase in core business revenue to HKD 7.9 billion in H1 2024, driven by a rebound in trading sentiment due to policy benefits and capital inflows [3][4] - The derivatives segment showed strong trading sentiment, with average daily contract volume increasing by 12% year-on-year to 1.5326 million contracts, although revenue from this segment decreased by 13% year-on-year to HKD 2.9 billion [3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 has been raised to HKD 12.383 billion, HKD 13.558 billion, and HKD 14.486 billion respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 4.39%, 9.49%, and 6.84% [4] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a P/E ratio of 23.82x for 2024, 21.75x for 2025, and 20.36x for 2026 [4] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is HKD 232.00, with a one-year low of HKD 212.20 and a high of HKD 319.80 [6] - The market capitalization of the Hong Kong stock is approximately HKD 294.14 billion [6] Basic Data - The book value per share is HKD 39.02, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 85.30% and a total share capital of 1,267.84 million shares [7]

非银金融/多元金融 Q2现货ADT同环比改善，LME+互联互通+衍生品延续高增 香港交易所（00388.HK） 2024 年 08 月 21 日 ——2024H1 香港交易所业绩点评 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |--------------------|---------------| | 日期 | 2024/8/21 | | 当前股价(港元) | 228.60 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 319.80/212.20 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 2,898.28 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 2,898.28 | | 总股本(亿股) | 12.68 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 12.68 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 23.86 | 股价走势图 香港交易所 恒生指数 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 数据来源：聚源 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 港股公司信息更新报告 相关研究报告 《多元化发展战略保持韧性，关注政策 面积极催化—2024Q1 香港交易所业绩 点评》-2024 ...

根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則》第三十八章，證券及期貨事務監察委員會監管香港交易及結算 所有限公司有關其股份在香港聯合交易所有限公司上市的事宜。證券及期貨事務監察委員會對本文件的內容概 不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本文件全部或任何部分內容而產生或 因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 （於香港註冊成立的有限公司） 股份代號：388（港幣櫃台）及 80388（人民幣櫃台） 截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日止六個月的 簡明綜合財務報表 （未經審核） 於 2024 年 8 月 21 日，香港交易及結算所有限公司（香港交易所或本公司）董事會包括 12 名獨立非執行董事，分別是唐家成先生（主席）、聶雅倫先生、巴雅博先生、陳健波先生、 謝清海先生、張明明女士、周胡慕芳女士、梁頴宇女士、梁柏瀚先生、任志剛先生、任景信先生 及張懿宸先生，以及一名身兼香港交易所集團行政總裁的執行董事陳翊庭女士。 1 簡明綜合收益表（未經審核） （財務數字以港元為單位） | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------| ...

根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則》第三十八章，證券及期貨事務監察委員會監管香港交易及結算所有限公司 有關其股份在香港聯合交易所有限公司上市的事宜。證券及期貨事務監察委員會對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或 完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失 承擔任何責任。 （於香港註冊成立的有限公司） 股份代號：388（港幣櫃台）及 80388（人民幣櫃台） （除另有註明外，於本公告中的財務數字均以港元為單位） 2024 年中期業績、 中期股息及暫停辦理股份過戶登記手續 1 戰略及財務摘要 | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 集團行政總裁陳翊庭表示： | | 香港交易所上半年業績穩健，其中，第二季度隨著市場回升及交投活躍，集團收入及其他收益和溢利均創當季新 | | 高。集團的多元化戰略持續顯現成效，衍生產品市場成交量屢創新高，LME 上半年收費交易金屬合 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 356.00 [1][6][20] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the spot market transaction volume, with an expected increase in trading activity leading to a rise in net profit for Q2 2024 [3][4] - The number of IPOs has increased quarter-on-quarter, indicating potential value in company allocations [1][4] - The report anticipates a decrease in investment yield due to a decline in HIBOR rates, despite an increase in margin size driven by improved market performance [3][4] Financial Projections - Revenue and other income are projected to grow from HKD 20,516 million in 2023 to HKD 21,715 million in 2024, reflecting an 11.16% increase [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from HKD 11,862 million in 2023 to HKD 12,751 million in 2024, a 7.49% increase [3] - The report provides EPS estimates of HKD 9.36 for 2023 and HKD 10.06 for 2024, with a PE ratio projected to decrease from 28.63 in 2023 to 24.00 in 2024 [3][20] Market Activity - The average daily trading volume (ADT) in the Hong Kong market is expected to increase to HKD 122 billion in Q2 2024, up from HKD 99 billion in Q1 2024, marking a 22% quarter-on-quarter increase [4][9] - The report notes that the number of IPOs in Q2 2024 has risen to 18 from 12 in Q1 2024, indicating a positive trend in market activity [4][9] Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at a PE ratio of 24x for 2024E, suggesting it is at the lower end of its long-term valuation range [4][20] - The report estimates a dividend yield of 3.14% for 2023, increasing to 3.75% in 2024 [3][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The trading activity has improved further, with the average daily turnover (ADT) for May reaching HKD 139.8 billion, representing a month-on-month increase of 24.5% and a year-on-year increase of 38.4% [2][8] - The company is expected to benefit from the optimization of interconnectivity mechanisms with mainland and emerging capital markets, maintaining its alpha advantage and offering high cost-effectiveness for medium to long-term investments [3][31] Market Environment - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a rise followed by a decline in May, with active trading [8] - The ADT for May was HKD 139.8 billion, with a daily turnover rate of 0.43%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.07 percentage points [8][10] - Southbound trading saw a significant inflow, with a double-sided ADT of HKD 55.7 billion, up 46.1% month-on-month and 98.9% year-on-year [10][15] - The derivatives market also saw increased activity, with stock options ADV rising by 18.0% month-on-month [16] Macro Environment - The domestic economic fundamentals remain stable, with the manufacturing PMI for May at 49.5%, indicating a slight decline but still within the expansion range [22][24] - The U.S. Federal Reserve has shown caution regarding interest rate cuts, with predictions adjusted to one cut for the year [24][31] Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 124.4 billion, HKD 129.3 billion, and HKD 139.8 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.9%, 3.9%, and 8.2% [3][31] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 26.9x for 2024, which is below the historical average PE of 38.9x since 2018 [3][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) [48] Core Views - HKEX's revenue is primarily driven by stock trading volume, with investment income smoothing cyclical fluctuations [2] - The improvement in capital flows and trading sentiment in the Hong Kong market is expected to continue [23] - The expansion of high-quality listed companies is a key factor in elevating the trading volume and profitability of HKEX [34] Revenue Breakdown - Trading and settlement income account for 49% of HKEX's revenue, with stock trading being the decisive factor [6][8] - Investment income, which is highly correlated with interest rates, contributed 24% to revenue in 2023, growing by 266% YoY to HKD 4.959 billion [14] - Market data fees, which accounted for 5% of revenue in 2023, have significant growth potential compared to global peers [17] Understanding Beta (β) - The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant gains since February 2024, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 18.49% and 23.82% respectively [24] - Southbound capital inflows have surged, with net purchases of HKD 245 billion, HKD 859 billion, and HKD 804 billion in February, March, and April 2024 respectively [26] - Foreign capital inflows are expected to recover gradually, with international intermediaries' holdings increasing by 22% from January to May 2024 [28] Understanding Alpha (α) - The expansion of high-quality listed companies is essential for increasing trading volume and profitability [35] - Historical data shows that HKEX's profitability has been driven by waves of high-quality IPOs, such as the 2006 wave of mainland companies and the 2019 wave of US-listed Chinese companies returning to Hong Kong [37] - The Hong Kong market's low turnover rate, driven by institutional investors, leaves room for liquidity improvement through measures like reducing trading costs and introducing market makers [43] Investment Recommendation - HKEX is expected to achieve net profits of HKD 12.383 billion, HKD 13.558 billion, and HKD 14.486 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 27.75x, 25.34x, and 23.72x [48] - The current valuation of HKEX is below its historical average, with potential for further upside as trading volume and profitability improve [46]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights an improvement in overseas liquidity expectations and favorable policies for the Hong Kong stock market, which are expected to enhance trading activity and profitability for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) [3][27] - The report anticipates a recovery in average daily turnover (ADT) for HKEX, driven by supportive domestic policies and improved overseas liquidity [27] Summary by Sections Market Environment - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong rebound in April, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 7.4%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 6.4%, and the Hang Seng Financial Index by 9.6% [7] - The average daily turnover (ADT) for HKEX in April was HKD 112.3 billion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.0% and a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [3][7] - Southbound trading showed significant growth, with a 3.8% month-on-month increase in ADT to HKD 38.1 billion [11][7] Macro Environment - The domestic economic fundamentals remain stable, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.4 in April, indicating continued expansion [20] - In the U.S., non-farm payrolls increased by 175,000 in April, which was below expectations, leading to a rise in market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [20][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the combination of improved overseas liquidity and favorable policies for the Hong Kong stock market will lead to a recovery in trading activity, positively impacting HKEX's profitability and valuation [27] - The projected net profits for HKEX for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are HKD 12.44 billion, HKD 12.93 billion, and HKD 13.98 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.9%, 3.9%, and 8.2% [27][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 430 HKD, corresponding to a PE of 41.6x for 2024 [3][4]. Core Insights - The company's performance is under pressure due to a decline in investment income, primarily caused by falling contract prices leading to a reduction in margin requirements. In Q1 2024, the company's revenue and net profit were 3.847 billion and 2.970 billion HKD, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 6.42% and 12.85% [3]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has announced measures to enhance cooperation with Hong Kong, which, along with expectations of a continued trend of US dollar interest rate cuts, is likely to boost the activity level in the Hong Kong stock market, driving the company's revenue growth beyond expectations [3][4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2024 to 2026, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 22.2 billion, 24.3 billion, and 26.9 billion HKD, with net profits of 13.1 billion, 14.7 billion, and 16.6 billion HKD, respectively [3][5]. - In Q1 2024, the company's investment income decreased by 12.57% to 1.342 billion HKD, accounting for a negative contribution of 54.06% to total revenue growth. The average margin size decreased by 25.47% to 18.46 billion HKD [3][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the Hong Kong capital market is entering a significant policy dividend period, with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange positioned to embark on a new journey due to favorable external conditions [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Capital Market Cooperation Measures - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced five measures to enhance cooperation with Hong Kong, including expanding the eligible products for Stock Connect, incorporating REITs into Stock Connect, and supporting the inclusion of RMB trading counters in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3][11][12]. - The ETF market in Hong Kong has seen substantial growth, with annual trading volume increasing from USD 1.7 billion in 2003 to USD 435.1 billion in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 32% [15][16]. 2. Expectations from Two Sessions Proposals - Proposals from the Two Sessions are expected to gradually materialize, including potential reductions in dividend tax for Hong Kong Stock Connect investors, which could enhance investment interest in high-dividend assets [25][28]. - The report anticipates that the expansion of financial derivatives related to mainland assets will further attract overseas investors to the Hong Kong market [10][25]. 3. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's net profit for 2024-2026 is projected at HKD 121.24 billion, HKD 131.63 billion, and HKD 141.33 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 2.21%, 8.57%, and 7.37% respectively [3][10]. - The current market valuation corresponds to a P/E ratio of 28.17x for 2024, 25.95x for 2025, and 24.17x for 2026 [2][3].