Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [2][3] Core Views - The report highlights that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has experienced strong growth in revenue and profit due to a vibrant market environment, with a 37% year-over-year increase in revenue to HKD 23.745 billion and a 36% increase in net profit to HKD 17.754 billion for the fiscal year 2025 [3][6] - The report emphasizes the robust performance across various segments, with trading fees and system usage fees increasing by 44%, settlement and clearing fees by 49%, and listing fees by 21% [6] - The report notes that the average daily trading volume for securities products increased by 93% year-over-year to HKD 231.5 billion, driven by a 27.7% rise in the Hang Seng Index [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, the company achieved total revenue of HKD 23.745 billion, a 37% increase year-over-year, and a net profit of HKD 17.754 billion, also up 36% year-over-year [3][6] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2025 was reported at 30.5%, reflecting a 6.3 percentage point increase year-over-year [6] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the cash market segment grew by 58%, while revenue from equity securities and financial derivatives increased by 18% [6] - The report indicates that the IPO market was particularly strong, with 119 IPOs raising HKD 645.9 billion, a 236% increase year-over-year [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2026 to 2028 are estimated at HKD 31.273 billion, HKD 32.671 billion, and HKD 34.135 billion, respectively, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 7.2%, 4.5%, and 4.5% [5] - The projected net profit for 2026 to 2028 is expected to be HKD 19.087 billion, HKD 20.048 billion, and HKD 21.006 billion, with growth rates of 7.5%, 5.0%, and 4.8% respectively [5][6] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast of 27.8x for 2026, 26.5x for 2027, and 25.3x for 2028, indicating a gradual decline in valuation multiples [5][6] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decrease from 9.1 in 2025 to 8.3 by 2028 [5][6]

Macro Strategy - The geopolitical risks have intensified since February, particularly following the military conflict involving Iran, which has led to a surge in global financial markets driven by oil and gold prices, indicating strong risk aversion [1][14] - The core risks identified include: 1. The blockage risk of the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil transport, with a daily transport volume of approximately 20 million barrels, accounting for about 20% of global oil consumption [1][14] 2. Disruption risks in the chemical supply chain, as Iran is the second-largest methanol producer globally, supplying over 60% of China's methanol imports [1][14] 3. Rising freight and insurance costs due to potential escalation of regional conflicts, which could significantly increase the costs of commodities passing through these routes [1][14] Foreign Exchange Market Impact - Short-term market risk aversion is expected to persist, with funds likely flowing into the US dollar and US Treasury markets, while the Chinese yuan may act as a "safe haven" [1][14] - The dollar index is anticipated to strengthen in the short term but may face pressure in the medium term if the situation escalates, potentially leading to a scenario of rising oil prices and inflation, prompting central banks to raise interest rates [1][14] - The yuan is expected to maintain a stable upward trend, supported by flexible domestic fiscal and monetary policies, with a projected trading range against the dollar of 6.80-6.95 in the short term [1][14] Commodity Market Impact - Short-term risk aversion is driving a synchronous rise in gold and oil prices, while medium-term supply chain disruptions and inflation pressures may reshape the global economic and financial landscape [1][14] - The potential for a prolonged regional conflict could lead to significant changes in global economic dynamics, with high oil prices and shipping costs potentially slowing global economic growth and increasing inflationary pressures [1][14] - Long-term geopolitical tensions are expected to enhance the strategic importance of energy and resources for national economies, with a shift from "efficiency-first" to "security-first" in resource supply [1][14] Stock Market Impact - Initial phases of geopolitical conflict typically pressure global stock markets, with the A-share market likely experiencing some downward pressure due to panic selling [1][14] - However, the impact on the A-share market may be pulse-like and not indicative of a systemic shift, as China's modern manufacturing system can help mitigate external shocks [1][14] - The A-share market is currently supported by domestic policies and trends, with sectors such as gold, oil, and military industries likely benefiting from the ongoing conflict [1][14] Bond Market Impact - Increased risk aversion is expected to drive funds into the bond market, particularly Chinese government bonds, which may attract safe-haven investments [1][14] - The primary drivers of the Chinese bond market will remain domestic fiscal and monetary policies, with expectations of continued liquidity support from the central bank [1][14]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,630, up 0.95% for the day and up 3.90% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,137, up 0.56% for the day but down 6.86% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,162, up 0.39% for the day and up 4.89% year-to-date [1] - The Dow Jones Index closed at 48,977, down 1.05% for the day and up 1.90% year-to-date [1] Currency Performance - The Renminbi Index is at 97.810, down 0.74% over the last month but up 1.84% over the last six months [2] - The US Dollar Index is at 97.744, up 1.58% over the last month but down 0.50% over the last six months [2] - The exchange rate for Renminbi to USD is 0.146, down 1.38% over the last month and down 4.09% over the last six months [2] Commodity Performance - Brent crude oil is priced at $71.39 per barrel, up 7.21% over the last month and up 7.92% over the last six months [3] - Gold is priced at $5,179.43 per ounce, down 0.02% over the last month but up 52.45% over the last six months [3] - Silver is priced at $89.872 per ounce, down 19.82% over the last month but up 132.83% over the last six months [3] Company News - NIO (09866.HK) has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Bosch, focusing on core technologies for smart electric vehicles [22] - New World Development (00017.HK) reported a narrowed interim loss of HKD 37.3 billion, with a core operating profit decline of 17.7% [23][24] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority reported a 1.1% increase in M2 and M3 money supply in January [17][18] Economic Indicators - Hong Kong's overall export value in January increased by 33.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [14][16] - The Hong Kong government recorded a surplus of HKD 879 billion in the first ten months of the fiscal year, with fiscal reserves increasing to HKD 7,422 billion [19]

Summary of Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) Conference Call Industry Overview - HKEX is actively expanding its connectivity network to other Asian economies to create a more attractive regional liquidity pool, focusing on collaboration with overseas exchanges, particularly in the Middle East and Southeast Asia [2][3] - The company aims to provide a broader range of asset allocation tools for investors by expanding its product offerings [2] Key Financial Insights - HKEX is committed to cost control, targeting a cost increase below historical growth trends. Despite a 5% year-on-year increase in operating expenses for 2025 due to non-recurring items related to the LME nickel incident, the underlying increase is only 2% when excluding these items [2][4] - Future financial performance will be influenced by market transactions, net investment income, and fluctuations in the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate [2][4] Strategic Initiatives - The core rationale for regional expansion is that approximately 75% of trading volume in the Asia-Pacific stock market comes from mainland China and Hong Kong, indicating significant investment demand in other regional markets [2][6] - HKEX is focusing on building a larger ecosystem through partnerships with other regional exchanges, enhancing liquidity in both the stock and spot markets, and developing its derivatives product line [2][3][7] Cost Management and Investment Strategy - Cost management will continue to prioritize maintaining growth below historical trends while optimizing product systems and market structures [4][5] - HKEX plans to make necessary and prudent investments in fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodities while maintaining strict cost discipline [5][6] IPO and Market Demand - The IPO pipeline remains healthy, with 24 IPOs completed in 2026 year-to-date, raising over $10 billion. The market demand is strong, with completed projects performing well in the aftermarket [12][16] - HKEX is also exploring opportunities for dual listings and supporting Asian issuers' financing needs, with recent listings from Thailand, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan [6][10] Future Developments - HKEX is working on launching Chinese government bond futures, which is seen as a significant demand in the market [14][15] - The company is also focused on enhancing its FICC ecosystem, with a long-term investment in CMU OmniClear, which is expected to contribute to the overall FICC strategy [8][9] Competitive Positioning - HKEX's defense strategy emphasizes consolidating and amplifying its differentiated advantages rather than attempting to cover all areas. The unique selling point of its connectivity business sets it apart from other exchanges [10][11] - The company is not currently planning to offer prediction market products, focusing instead on building a multi-asset ecosystem [12] Conclusion - HKEX is strategically positioned to leverage its strengths in the Asia-Pacific region, focusing on cost control, product diversification, and enhancing liquidity through regional partnerships. The ongoing demand for IPOs and fixed income products presents significant growth opportunities for the company in the coming years [2][6][17]

机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：刘欣琦/张轩铭/吴浩东 本报告导读： 受益于港股交投活跃度维持高位，保证金投资规模增长对冲收益率下降影响，港交所四季度利润好于预 期；港股市场扩容以及自身服务边界拓宽，港股市场IPO 持续活跃，提升港交所中长期盈利中枢。 投资要点： 维持"增持" 评级，调升目标价至 502港元，对应25 年 35xPE。公司2025 年总收入/净利润291.6/177.5 亿 港元，同比+30% /+36%；单季度利润增速放缓，4Q25 港交所总收入/净利润73.1/43.4 亿港元，同比 +15%/+15%。海外流动性预期改善、国内稳经济政策等因素有望助推港股投融资活跃度维持高位，驱 动公司业绩稳步增长。预计公司26-28 年净利润188/197/207 亿港元，分别同比+6%/+5%/+5%，目标价 550 港元，对应26 年37 xPE，维持"增持"评级。 业绩拆分看、现货分部高增为盈利核心驱动。港股交投活跃度改善下交易相关收入提升是公司业绩增长 的主因，2025 年港交所现货、股本证券衍生品、商品、数据及连接、公司项目分部收入分别为147、 69、32、23、22 亿港元，分别同比+56% ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) achieved a total revenue of HKD 29.16 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, with a notable increase in trading activity driving record revenue and profit levels [1] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 17.75 billion, up 36.0% year-on-year, although growth rates showed signs of slowing in the fourth quarter [1] - The exchange regained its position as the global leader in new stock financing, with 119 new listings in 2025, raising HKD 286.9 billion, a significant increase from the previous year [4] Revenue Breakdown - Total revenue for 2025 was HKD 29.16 billion, with main business revenue at HKD 27.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.8% [1] - Trading fees, system usage fees, and settlement fees accounted for HKD 17.38 billion (59.6% of total revenue), showing a year-on-year increase of 45.9% [1] - Investment income netted HKD 5.11 billion (17.5% of total revenue), with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [2] Market Activity - The average daily trading volume for equity securities reached HKD 231.5 billion, a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 92.9% [3] - The derivatives market also saw significant growth, with an average daily trading volume of HKD 18.3 billion, up 55.1% year-on-year [3] - Northbound and southbound trading recorded average daily transaction amounts of RMB 2.124 trillion and HKD 1.211 trillion, respectively, both achieving annual highs [3] New Listings and Future Outlook - The number of new listings increased by 67.6% year-on-year, with a strong contribution from new economy sectors [4] - The pipeline for new listings remains robust, with 345 applications pending as of Q4 2025, a 310.7% increase from the previous year [4] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from a favorable market environment, with revised profit forecasts for 2026-2028 indicating strong growth potential [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the non-bank financial sector, but it provides insights into various segments such as insurance, brokerage, and banking, indicating potential investment opportunities and strategies [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial index decreased by 1.18% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.26 percentage points. The insurance sector saw a decline of 3.74%, while the brokerage sector fell by 0.39%. In contrast, the diversified financial index increased by 3.90% [1][10]. - The insurance sector is experiencing a short-term adjustment due to profit-taking, a shift of funds towards growth sectors, and a lack of policy and earnings reports. However, the medium-term outlook remains positive as insurance companies are expected to increase equity allocations in 2026, supported by economic recovery and low valuations [2][14]. - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from the recent capital market planning discussions, which emphasize market openness and reform. The report suggests that leading brokerages with strong cross-border capabilities will likely gain from these developments [2][16]. - The banking sector is viewed as a potential investment opportunity, particularly as macroeconomic conditions improve. The report recommends focusing on banks with high earnings elasticity, high dividend yields, and those expected to benefit from convertible bond catalysts [3][19]. Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's index fell by 3.74%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.82 percentage points. The decline is attributed to profit-taking and a shift in market sentiment towards growth sectors [2][13]. - Despite the short-term pullback, the long-term outlook for the insurance sector is optimistic, with expectations of increased equity allocations and a favorable economic environment supporting valuation recovery [14][15]. - Recommended stocks include New China Life Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, and China Life Insurance [15]. Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector index decreased by 0.39%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.47 percentage points. The sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is currently at 1.33x, indicating a mismatch between earnings and valuations [2][16][17]. - The report highlights the importance of selecting brokerages based on their strengths and potential for mergers and acquisitions, recommending firms like Guotai Junan and Huatai Securities [17][18]. - The recent discussions by the China Securities Regulatory Commission signal a commitment to market reform and openness, which could benefit leading brokerages [16]. Banking Sector - The banking sector index fell by 0.92%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.00 percentage points. The sector's PB ratio is at 0.50x, suggesting potential undervaluation [3][18]. - The report emphasizes the banking sector's resilience and potential for recovery as macroeconomic conditions improve, recommending banks with strong earnings potential and high dividend yields [19]. - Suggested banks for investment include Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, and China Merchants Bank, among others [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a current price of 419.00 HKD and a fair value of 540.45 HKD [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high performance in 2025, with total revenue reaching 29.161 billion HKD, a 30% increase from 2024. This growth was driven by a 32% rise in core business revenue due to increased spot trading volume and stock options trading volume, leading to higher trading and settlement fees [11][36]. - The EBITDA for 2025 was 22.796 billion HKD, up 40% from 2024, with an EBITDA margin of 79%, reflecting a 5 percentage point increase [11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 was 17.754 billion HKD, a 36% increase compared to 2024 [11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2024: 22.374 billion HKD - 2025: 29.161 billion HKD (30.3% growth) - 2026E: 31.336 billion HKD (7.5% growth) - 2027E: 34.438 billion HKD (9.9% growth) - 2028E: 37.759 billion HKD (9.6% growth) [5] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2024: 13.050 billion HKD - 2025: 17.754 billion HKD (36.05% growth) - 2026E: 19.577 billion HKD (10.27% growth) - 2027E: 21.521 billion HKD (9.93% growth) - 2028E: 23.602 billion HKD (9.67% growth) [5] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024: 10.29 HKD - 2025: 14.00 HKD - 2026E: 15.44 HKD - 2027E: 16.97 HKD - 2028E: 18.62 HKD [5] - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E): - 2024: 40.7x - 2025: 29.9x - 2026E: 27.1x - 2027E: 24.7x - 2028E: 22.5x [5] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2024: 25.0% - 2025: 31.7% - 2026E: 34.3% - 2027E: 35.0% - 2028E: 37.0% [5] Business Segment Performance - Trading and Settlement Fees: - 2025 saw a significant increase in trading fees and settlement fees, with core trading volume reaching 249.8 billion HKD, a 90% increase from 2024. Trading fees grew by 44% and settlement fees by 49% [11][18]. - IPO Market: - The Hong Kong IPO market maintained its global leadership in 2025, with 119 companies listed and total fundraising of 286.9 billion HKD, more than three times that of 2024 [11][36]. - Margin Investment Income: - The net investment income from margin and settlement funds increased to 3.241 billion HKD in 2025, reflecting a growth in the scale of funds due to increased margin requirements [42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (0388.HK) [1] Core Insights - In 2025, Hong Kong Exchanges achieved a total revenue of HKD 29.16 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.3%. The fourth quarter saw a revenue of HKD 7.31 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached HKD 17.75 billion, up 36.0% year-on-year, with the fourth quarter net profit at HKD 4.34 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [5] - The EBITDA margin was 79%, an increase of 5 percentage points year-on-year, and the annual dividend per share was HKD 12.52, up 35.2% [5] Revenue Performance - Total revenue for 2025 was HKD 29.16 billion, with major business revenue contributing HKD 27.10 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.8% [5] - Trading fees, system usage fees, and settlement fees totaled HKD 17.38 billion, accounting for 59.6% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 45.9% [6] - Investment income netted HKD 5.11 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [6] Market Activity - The average daily trading volume for stock securities reached HKD 2,315 billion, a new annual high, with a year-on-year increase of 92.9% [6] - The number of new listings in Hong Kong increased to 119, with total funds raised amounting to HKD 286.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 226.0% [7] Future Projections - The report projects net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026 and 2027 to be HKD 19.04 billion and HKD 21.24 billion, respectively, with an additional forecast for 2028 at HKD 24.0 billion [8] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 28X for 2026, 25X for 2027, and 22X for 2028 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Outperform" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) and raises the target price from HKD 374 to HKD 500 [1] Core Insights - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing has achieved record high revenue and profit for the second consecutive year, driven by a comprehensive recovery in the Hong Kong capital market, resulting in strong operational leverage [1] - For the last quarter, the exchange reported revenue and net profit of HKD 7.26 billion and HKD 4.35 billion, respectively, both exceeding market expectations [1]