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智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，维持香港交易所(00388)目标价435港元及跑赢行业评级，基本维 持盈利预测不变，当前港交所交易于26x/24x 25e/26e P/E。港交所计划于4月30日披露1Q25业绩，该行 预计1Q25收入同比+31%/环比+7%至68.3亿港币，剔除投资收益及杂项收入后费类业务收入同比+47%/ 环比+10%至56.5亿港币，盈利同比+36%/环比+7%至40.5亿港币。 中金主要观点如下： 该行预计1Q25投资收益同比-15%/环比-5%至11.4亿港币，其中同比降幅较高主因同期外部权益投资收 益及息差高基数，就环比趋势来看：1)1Q25 6M HIBOR(移动平均)/平均1M HIBOR环比-7%/-10%、成本 端利率降幅较大或推动保证金息差边际提升，然而4Q中后期以来衍生品交易保证金比例受波动率下行 影响有所下降、或导致保证金规模环比下行;2)外部投资方面，1Q25境外债券市场相对景气，主要债券 ETF股价表现环比显著改善，港交所当前以政府债等资产为主的稳健外部投资策略或将有所受益。 政策持续博弈有望支撑市场活跃度表现，关注估值调整后配置价值 当前港交所1-yr fo ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The valuation of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) has lagged behind trading volume, with a recovery in IPOs positively impacting the long-term Average Daily Turnover (ADT) [4][6] - In 2025, the ADT is projected to reach 2200 billion HKD, with a year-on-year increase of 66.9% [4] - The company's net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised to 168, 169, and 172 billion HKD, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.0%, 0.2%, and 2.2% [4] Summary by Sections Market Activity and Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a continuous improvement in activity, with the ADT reaching a historical peak of 2973 billion HKD in February 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 230% [13][14] - The trading volume remained active in March, with figures of 3181 and 2863 billion HKD, showing year-on-year increases of 203% and 152% respectively [13] Regulatory Support for IPOs - Regulatory measures have encouraged A-share companies to list in Hong Kong, enhancing market capitalization and activity [6] - As of February 2025, 10 IPOs have occurred, doubling year-on-year, with a financing scale of 7.8 billion HKD, up 258% [32][34] - The approval process for IPOs has been optimized, facilitating the listing of mainland companies in Hong Kong [36] Financial Projections - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be 27,785 million HKD, with a year-on-year growth of 24.18% [7] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 16,828 million HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.95% [7] - The sensitivity analysis indicates that an ADT of 1700, 2200, and 3000 billion HKD corresponds to net profit changes of +8%, +29%, and +62% respectively [27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The valuation of Hong Kong Exchanges is lagging behind trading volume, with a recovery in IPOs benefiting the long-term Average Daily Turnover (ADT) [4] - The trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market has been active, with February's ADT reaching a historical peak of HKD 297.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 230% [13] - The company has adjusted its ADT forecasts for 2025-2027 to HKD 2200 billion, HKD 2000 billion, and HKD 2000 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 66.9%, a decline of 9.1%, and flat growth [4] - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to HKD 16.8 billion, HKD 16.9 billion, and HKD 17.2 billion respectively, indicating year-on-year growth of 29.0%, 0.2%, and 2.2% [4] Summary by Sections Market Activity and Trading Settlement Business - The Hong Kong stock market's activity has been improving, with February's ADT reaching a historical peak of HKD 297.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 230% [13] - The trading settlement business, which is highly correlated with ADT, contributed over 53% of the company's revenue in 2024 [5] IPO Recovery and Market Structure - Regulatory support for A-share companies to list in Hong Kong is expected to enhance market capitalization and activity [6] - In the first two months of 2025, there were 10 IPOs in Hong Kong, doubling year-on-year, with a financing scale of HKD 7.8 billion, an increase of 258% [6][32] Financial Performance and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be HKD 27.785 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.18% [7] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at HKD 16.828 billion, indicating a year-on-year increase of 28.95% [7] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 27.8 times for 2025, compared to a historical average of approximately 37 times over the past decade [4][7]

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) Q4 2024 Earnings Call March 17, 2025 06:12 AM ET Company Participants Ricky Choi - Managing Director, Head of Group Strategy & Investor RelationsBonnie Y CHAN - CEOVanessa LAU - COO & Group CFOGary Lam - Head of Greater China Financials ResearchGurpreet Sahi - Executive DirectorKatherine NG - Head of ListingMichael Li - Managing Director Conference Call Participants Charles Zhou - Stock Analyst Ricky Choi Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to HKEX twenty t ...