智通财经APP获悉，1月20日港股市场，北水成交净买入36.63亿港元，其中港股通(沪)成交净买入34.44亿港元，港股通 (深)成交净买入2.18亿港元。 北水净买入最多的个股是腾讯(00700)、美团-W(03690)、小米集团-W(01810)。北水净卖出最多的个股是中芯国际 (00981)、中国移动(00941)、洛阳钼业(03993)。 芯片股再现分化，华虹半导体(01347)获净买入2.45亿港元，而中芯国际(00981)遭净卖出7.17亿港元。消息面上，开源证券 发布研报称，台积电发布超预期指引，将2026年资本开支大幅上调至520-560亿美元，印证AI驱动的长期需求。DRAM价 格持续上涨，DDR4部分型号周涨幅超12%，美光指出AI需求占比已快速提升至DRAM市场的50-60%，供给紧张或延续至 2028年。 长飞光纤光缆(06869)获净买入1.54亿港元。消息面上，根据光电通信公众号数据显示，G.652.D光纤市场平均价连续两个 季度上涨，价格回暖态势明显。甬兴证券发布研报称，2025年第四季度长期作为市场主流的G.652.D普通光纤出现显著的 价格上涨与供应紧张，且部分大厂库存已无法 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the integration of advanced technologies like AI to revitalize cultural heritage and enhance public engagement with historical narratives and experiences [2][56]. Group 1: Cultural Revitalization through Technology - The initiative aims to create immersive experiences that allow users to interact with cultural heritage, such as AI-generated historical narratives and personalized experiences [2][5]. - The "NextGen" plan by Tencent focuses on leveraging cutting-edge technologies to address the challenges of cultural heritage revitalization, aiming to create new forms of expression and engagement [5][56]. Group 2: Specific Topics and Challenges - The program identifies three main topics for innovation: 1. Development of multi-modal intelligent agents for cultural content generation [5]. 2. Creation of immersive interactive experiences that combine sensory data and emotional computing [6]. 3. Human-machine collaboration for the transmission and development of traditional crafts through digital means [7]. Group 3: Specific Cultural Scenarios - Five specific cultural scenarios have been outlined for technological application: 1. "Cloud Residence Intelligent Companion" for enhancing public understanding of historical texts [8][9]. 2. "Hangzhou West Lake Experience" focusing on personalized immersive tourism experiences [15][16]. 3. "Dawenkou Culture Interactive Experience" to facilitate understanding of ancient pottery techniques [19]. 4. "Bridge Wisdom Transmission" for teaching traditional wooden bridge construction techniques [29]. 5. "Cantonese Lion Dance Digital Activation" to enhance interaction and experience in traditional performances [36]. Group 4: Collaboration and Support - The initiative invites global technology teams to collaborate with cultural institutions to propose innovative solutions, with funding and resources available for selected projects [43][52]. - The project will undergo a structured process from proposal submission to implementation, ensuring thorough evaluation and support [48][50].

蓝筹股方面，腾讯控股跌1.48%，收报601港元；香港交易所跌1.11%，收报427港元；中国移动无升 跌，收报79.3港元；汇丰控股涨1.1%，收报128.4港元。 新华社香港1月20日电 香港恒生指数20日跌76.39点，跌幅0.29%，收报26487.51点。全日主板成交 2377.66亿港元。 国企指数跌39.69点，收报9094.76点，跌幅0.43%。恒生科技指数跌66.54点，收报5683.44点，跌幅 1.16%。 中资金融股方面，中国银行跌0.45%，收报4.47港元；建设银行跌0.51%，收报7.76港元；工商银行跌 0.47%，收报6.31港元；中国平安涨0.88%，收报69港元；中国人寿涨4.31%，收报33.4港元。 香港本地股方面，长实集团涨0.74%，收报43.34港元；新鸿基地产跌0.99%，收报110.2港元；恒基地产 涨0.52%，收报31.12港元。 石油石化股方面，中国石油化工股份跌0.61%，收报4.92港元；中国石油股份跌0.12%，收报8.21港元； 中国海洋石油跌1.74%，收报21.52港元。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:赵阳】 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent with a target price of 792 HKD [6][5][28] Core Insights - Tencent's revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit projected to increase by 16% to 643 billion RMB [1] - Key growth drivers include the launch of multiple new games, improved advertising efficiency through AI, and enhanced support for AI mini-programs on WeChat [1][3][4] - The gaming segment is anticipated to see a 16% increase in revenue, while advertising revenue is expected to rise by 20% [2][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Gaming Business - Tencent's gaming revenue for Q4 is projected to grow by 16%, with the new game "Counter-Strike: Future" expected to generate 35-70 billion RMB in its first year [2][12] - The game fills a gap in Tencent's PVE shooting game offerings and has already achieved over 10 million players shortly after launch [2][12][16] Financial Technology - Financial technology revenue is expected to grow by 9%, driven by a slowdown in social retail growth [3] - AI mini-programs are anticipated to enhance e-commerce and local services, with significant growth expected in 2026 [3][19] Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue is projected to increase by 20%, driven by budget increases from long-tail advertisers and efficiency improvements from AI [4] - WeChat's advertising capabilities are evolving, with new features aimed at enhancing social commerce [4][19] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for Tencent have been slightly adjusted downwards for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profit estimates also revised [5][24] - The target price of 792 HKD corresponds to a PE ratio of 21.6 for 2026, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [5][28][30]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reports that the Chinese gaming and entertainment sector experienced significant stock price increases in 2025, with large and mid-cap stocks rising by 50% to 80% compared to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index's 26% [1] - The report indicates that the strong performance is driven equally by valuation expansion and earnings per share growth [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, the firm believes the risk-reward profile remains attractive, with a focus on "alpha" driven opportunities [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Chinese gaming publishers and content platforms, represented by Tencent Holdings and NetEase, are accelerating their overseas expansion, leveraging capital, talent, and technological capabilities [2] - The global market share of Chinese game manufacturers is expected to increase from the current level of approximately 15% [2] Group 2: AI Impact - AI is seen as a transformative force, reducing production and labor costs while enhancing efficiency and revenue potential, particularly in gaming and advertising sectors [2] - The total addressable market (TAM) for AI-generated film tools is projected to expand tenfold by 2028 [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Goldman Sachs identifies key buy stocks including Tencent, NetEase, Kuaishou, Bilibili, and Tencent Music, with Tencent's core business expected to maintain low to mid-double-digit growth annually [2] - The firm maintains a "buy" rating on Tencent, lowering the target price from HKD 770 to HKD 752 [2]

智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，中国游戏与娱乐板块在2025年股价经历了广泛上涨，大中型股涨 幅达50至80%(相较恒生中国企业指数的26%)，并在2026年初延续强劲表现，部分股票涨幅高达30%(相 较相关指数约3-5%)。该行认为此次上涨一半由估值扩张、一半由每股盈利增长所驱动。 高盛选出的核心买入股份，包括腾讯、网易、快手-W(01024)、哔哩哔哩(BILI.US)、腾讯音乐。该行认 为腾讯的核心业务(游戏+广告)将继续保持每年低至中十位数的增长，主要受惠于常青游戏的持续力、 关键产品管线，以及广告生态系统在变现与人工智能上的助力。该行继续认为，腾讯是人工智能应用的 重要代理，也是投资者的核心持股。该行维持腾讯"买入"评级，下调目标价由770港元降至752港元。 (2)海外市场扩张加速：中国游戏发行商及内容平台(以腾讯控股(00700)、网易-S(09999)为代表)正在加 快出海步伐。中国游戏厂商的优势在于资本与人才密集、技术能力突出以及高效的持续内容升级，这些 因素正推动其全球市场份额从当前约15%水平进一步提升。 (3)人工智能应用的赋能与颠覆方面，高盛指AI不仅开始降低生产与人力成本，提高 ...

该行认为，全栈能力是Agent时代能否脱颖而出的关键变量 举例对比：(1)谷歌1月11日宣布Gemini将赋能沃尔玛超市，升级沃尔玛用户购物体验，本质是通过UCP 协议连接外部零售商的"开放联盟"模式;(2)豆包此前发布的AI手机则遇到了支付API难题，在后续更新中 限制了支付宝等金融类应用的使用，该行认为是生态不完善导致AI能力无法充分发挥;(3)阿里本身就拥 有完善的线上&线下购物生态，结合Qwen大模型，上层直接打通淘宝商品库、支付宝支付体系及本地 生活服务体系。这种深度整合有望解决AIAgent落地中最棘手的"决策信任"与"支付断点"难题。此外， 全栈优势有望带来广阔Agent发挥空间。千问"任务助理"功能在App和Web端开始定向邀测，该功能具备 类人化的多步骤规划能力，覆盖应用开发、Office办公、咨询调研及生活办事等核心场景，支持一键处 理报表整理、研报撰写及小工具生成等复杂任务，商业化变现路径渐显清晰。 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，深度整合有望解决AIAgent落地中最棘手的"决策信任"与"支 付断点"难题。此外，全栈优势有望带来广阔Agent发挥空间。该行重视国内算力产业链建设 ...

黄青春频道 . 以下文章来源于黄青春频道 ，作者黄青春Youth 看清流量迁徙的切面 小游戏生态，只有微信和其 出品｜虎嗅黄青春频道 作者｜商业消费主笔 黄青春 题图｜视觉中国 当聒噪的短剧让人直呼上头时，一个更隐秘的风口正悄然崛起—— 过去一年，微信小游戏累计服务超过 10 亿用户，MAU（月活用户）超 5 亿，DAU（日活用户）同比提升 10%，留存粘性提升 27% ；叠加抖音、 快手、支付宝、B 站等分发渠道助力，小游戏已成为网友无法自拔的"杀时间利器"。 尽管小游戏风靡没几年，但其势头已然压过 APP 手游： 其实不然，这种"赶超"并非零和博弈。微信小游戏大盘数据显示，即便增速迅猛，小游戏与 APP 手游的用 户重合度仅 10%，且二者 ARPPU（每个付费用户平均收入）基本持平；抖音方面也透露，其小游戏与 APP 游戏的用户重叠度仅 14%。 他 1. 一方面，巨量引擎数据，小游戏活跃用户规模于 2024 年上半年首次超过 APP 手游；2025 年，其仍 在持续分流 APP 手游、网页游戏的用户时长，被行业人士戏称为"游戏蝗虫"。 2. 另一方面，二者的投放格局也已逆转 ——以 2024 年 8 ...

Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 195.4 billion yuan in Q4 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 13% [1] - Value-added services are projected to generate 90.9 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 15% [1] - Within value-added services, the gaming sector is anticipated to reach 59.3 billion yuan, growing by 21% year-over-year, while social networking is expected to generate 31.6 billion yuan, up by 6% [1] - Online advertising revenue is forecasted at 40.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 16% year-over-year growth [1] - Financial technology and enterprise services are expected to generate 61.9 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 10% [1] - The gross margin is projected to be 20%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-over-year, resulting in a gross profit of 108.7 billion yuan, up by 20% [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit is expected to be 70 billion yuan, an 18% increase year-over-year, with a non-IFRS net profit of 65.1 billion yuan, also up by 18% [1] Gaming Sector - Revenue from gaming is expected to grow by 21% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with domestic and overseas markets growing by 17% and 28% respectively [1] - Domestic evergreen games are performing steadily, with shooting games showing strong performance, particularly titles like "Delta Force" and "Valorant Mobile" contributing to revenue growth [1] - Several key new games are set to launch in Q1 2026, indicating strong future growth potential in the gaming sector [1] - Overseas, Supercell's "Clash Royale" continues to generate high revenue, and the AAA game "Dying Light: The Beast" is performing strongly, supporting sustained high growth in overseas gaming [1] Marketing Services - Revenue from marketing services is projected to grow by 16% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with the WeChat ecosystem advertising being the main growth driver [2] - The performance of video accounts and search ads remains strong, benefiting from enhanced advertising efficiency and conversion rates due to the synergy of content ecology and AI capabilities [2] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services is expected to grow by 10% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with stable payment business and double-digit growth in wealth management and micro-loan services [2] - Cloud business is anticipated to exceed 20% year-over-year growth, with WeChat's small store e-commerce technology service fees continuing to contribute to revenue [2] - Recent organizational adjustments in AI business aim to enhance the efficiency of large model development, with WeChat officially launching an AI mini-program developer growth plan [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is adjusting its profit expectations, forecasting revenues of 752.8 billion yuan, 847.5 billion yuan, and 931.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [2] - Non-IFRS net profit is projected to be 260 billion yuan, 299.2 billion yuan, and 338.4 billion yuan for the same period, with corresponding Non-IFRS EPS of 29, 33, and 37 yuan [2] - Based on the SOTP valuation method, the target market value for Tencent Holdings' various businesses in 2026 is set at 6.5 trillion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 791 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][8][23] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 194.6 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%. The network advertising sector is anticipated to perform steadily, benefiting from the release of advertising inventory and AI integration. The gaming business is expected to show strong performance, particularly with the game "Delta Operation" [4][9] - The company is increasing its investment in AI, which is expected to offset some operational leverage release. The AI investment will primarily manifest in R&D expenses, projected to grow by 28% in Q4 2025 [4][10] - The gaming segment is projected to generate revenue of CNY 58 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, supported by established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [5][15][21] - Marketing services revenue is expected to reach CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by AI enhancements in advertising efficiency [6][19] - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with revenue expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025, primarily driven by payment services [20] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue is expected to be CNY 194.6 billion, with a 13% year-on-year increase. Non-IFRS operating profit is projected at CNY 68.1 billion, up 15% year-on-year, and net profit is expected to be CNY 65.2 billion, reflecting an 18% increase [4][10][11] - The expected Non-IFRS net profit margin is 34% for Q4 2025 [10] Gaming Business - The gaming revenue forecast for Q4 2025 is CNY 58 billion, with an 18% year-on-year growth. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, while overseas game revenue is projected to increase by 22% [5][21] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue is anticipated to be CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, marking an 18% year-on-year growth. AI-driven enhancements are expected to improve advertising efficiency significantly [6][19] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services is expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025, with a 9% year-on-year growth, primarily driven by payment services [20]