Research 证券研究报告 | 2024年10月16日 | 12:07AM HKT CHINA RESILIENCE 聚焦中国高韧性企业 –腾讯控股 (0700.HK) 超级应用构筑生态系统，游戏业务布局全球 (摘要) | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

2024 年 10 月 14 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------|---------------|--------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------|------------------------------------------|---------|---------| | 线上游戏: 超配 \n腾讯控股 | (700 HK, | | 买入, 目 ...

交银国际研究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|---------------|----------------|------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 公司更新 | | | | | | 互联网 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2024 年 10 月 14 日 | | | 港元 438.80 | 港元 513.00↑ | +16.9% | | | 腾讯控股 | (700 HK) | | | | | | | | 手游维持稳健增长，维持利润增速快于收入增速预期 | | 本土/海外手游流水维持快速增长。1）本土：2024年3季度流水同比增29% （Sensor Tower/七麦），对比 2 季度 32%，仍主要受益于新游《地下城与 勇士：起源》（《MDnF》）增量贡献。2）海外：3 季度流水同比增 27% （对比 1/2 季度 33%/47%），仍受 Supercell《荒野乱斗》驱动，单月流水 维持在 6-8 亿元（人民币， ...

恒生指数 21.4% 15.3% 18.4% 52 周价格区间（港元） 260.20-482.40 流通股本（万股） 927,961.82 2024 年 10 月 15 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) [Table_Title] 游戏加速，广告稳健，持续高质量增长 研究所： 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 尹芮 S0350522110001 yinr@ghzq.com.cn ——腾讯控股（0700.HK）2024Q3 财报前瞻 最近一年走势 1、主要财务指标前瞻：我们预计公司 2024Q3 实现营业收入 1670 亿元（YoY+8%）。其中增值服务 823 亿元（YoY+9%），增值服务 中游戏业务 518 亿元（YoY+13%）、社交网络 305 亿元（YoY+3%）， 在线广告业务 298 亿元（YoY+16%），金融科技和企业服务 536 亿 元（YoY+3%）。预计公司 2024Q3 毛利率 53%（YoY+4pct），毛 利润891亿元（YoY+16%）;销售费用率 6%，一般及行政费用率 17%； NON-IFRS 经营利润 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 腾讯控股（00700.HK）3Q24 业绩前瞻 推荐（维持） 聚焦经营韧性：游戏收入继续抬升，广告增 速放缓，FTB 关注毛利率改善 事项： 3Q24 业绩前瞻：我们预计公司 3Q24 实现收入 1672 亿元，YOY+8%，QOQ+4%； 实现毛利润 891 亿元，YOY+16%，QOQ+4%，对应 GPM 53%；实现 NONIFRS 口径下营业利润 610 亿元，YOY+18%，QOQ+4%；实现 NON-IFRS 口径 下归母净利润 546 亿元，YOY+22%，QOQ-5%。其中营业利润与净利润增速 有所背离，主要由于我们预计分占联营企业利润将有所收窄。 评论： 增值服务：前期增量游戏流水确认，带动收入继续提速。我们预计 3Q24 网络 游戏业务实现收入 523 亿元，YOY+13%，QOQ+8%。其中，1）我们预计本土 市场游戏实现收入 370 亿元（口径为不包含分配到社交网络中的部分）， YOY+13%，QOQ+7%，主要反应前期上线的重点新产品《地下城与勇士：起 源》流水到收入的逐步确认，核心产品《王者荣耀》、《和平精英》在玩法和运 营更新驱动下的环比增长，以及《英雄联 ...

Investment Rating - Tencent Holdings (00700 HK) maintains an "Outperform" rating [2][4][13] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 1684 billion in 2024Q3, a 9% YoY growth, with adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 555 billion, up 24% YoY [3][5] - The company's advertising business is expected to grow 16% YoY, driven by video account traffic and the launch of the advertising system 3 0 [3][5] - The gaming business is projected to grow 13% YoY, with domestic games up 15% and overseas games up 9% [3][7] - Financial technology and enterprise services are expected to grow 3% YoY, impacted by macroeconomic conditions [3][5] Business Segment Analysis Gaming - Domestic gaming revenue is expected to grow 15% YoY, with key games like "Peace Elite" and "Naruto Mobile" showing strong performance [7] - Overseas gaming revenue is projected to grow 9% YoY, with "Brawl Stars" maintaining a strong position [7] - "DNF Mobile" saw a decline in user numbers but remains a top performer in the iOS bestseller rankings [7][8] Advertising - Advertising revenue is expected to grow 16% YoY, supported by video account traffic and the launch of the advertising system 3 0 [3][10] - WeChat Mini Stores have activated full-domain traffic, potentially accelerating video account growth [10] - AI-powered advertising is expected to improve CTR by 5-10% [10] Financial Technology & Enterprise Services - Revenue is expected to grow 3% YoY, with payment services impacted by macroeconomic conditions [3][11] - High-margin businesses like wealth management are growing healthily [4] Financial Forecasts - Adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is forecasted at RMB 2198/2482/2729 billion, with a slight downward revision of 1% for each year [4][13] - Target price is set at HKD 471-528, based on a 16-18x PE ratio for 2025 [4][13] Key Financial Metrics - 2024Q3 revenue is expected to reach RMB 1684 billion, with a gross margin of 53% and a Non-IFRS net margin of 33% [6] - Adjusted EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at RMB 24 05/26 23/28 03 [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HKD 495.00, up from the previous target of HKD 465.35 [3][6] Core Views - Tencent's 3Q revenue is expected to grow 9.3% YoY, with advertising revenue slowing to 16% YoY due to macroeconomic factors [3] - Long-term growth drivers include the potential launch of new games like "Honor of Kings: World" and "Dawn" in 2025, which could generate monthly revenues of RMB 1.5-2.5 billion [3] - Video account advertising load rates are expected to increase in 4Q, and the integration of WeChat Pay with Taotian could boost advertising and payment revenue CAGR by 3-4 percentage points from 2025-2026 [3][4] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised upward by 0.9%, 1.1%, and 0.5% to RMB 216.3 billion, RMB 250.3 billion, and RMB 285.2 billion, respectively [3] Financial Performance - 3Q gaming revenue is expected to grow 13.4% YoY, with domestic and international gaming revenues increasing by 12.4% and 16.0%, respectively [5] - The "DnF" mobile game contributed RMB 8-9 billion in 3Q, while "Peacekeeper Elite" saw iOS revenue growth of 22% and 24% YoY in August and September [5] - During the National Day holiday, Tencent's iOS gaming revenue grew 15% YoY, driven by strong performances from "Golden Shovel," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Naruto" [5][12] Strategic Developments - The integration of WeChat Pay with Taotian is expected to generate RMB 4-8 billion in annualized commission revenue, primarily from lower-tier cities [4][9] - WeChat Shop upgrades and incentive policies are projected to contribute RMB 150-300 billion in GMV over the next two years [4] - Tencent's video account advertising is expected to accelerate in 4Q, driven by the peak season for live-streaming e-commerce [4] Gaming Segment - Tencent's gaming segment remains robust, with "DnF" mobile game maintaining high rankings on the iOS bestseller list since its launch in May [5] - New games like "Delta Action" achieved RMB 15-25 million in first-week revenue, while "Peacekeeper Elite" saw significant revenue growth due to accelerated commercialization [5][12] - Tencent is focusing on optimizing player experience for "DnF," with updates including new professions, pet functions, and PVP balance adjustments [15][16][17] Valuation and Forecasts - The SOTP valuation for Tencent is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, with gaming, social networks, online advertising, fintech, and enterprise services contributing to the target price of HKD 495.00 [29] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised upward by 0.1%, 0.8%, and 1.5%, respectively, driven by stronger advertising and payment revenue growth [22] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are RMB 216.3 billion, RMB 250.3 billion, and RMB 285.2 billion, reflecting higher-margin business contributions [22]

传媒 证 券 研 究 报 告 上 市 公 司 公 司 点 评 / 公 司 点 评 2024 年 10 月 11 日 腾讯控股 (00700) ——24Q3 前瞻：游戏和视频号持续拉动增长 报告原因：有新的信息需要补充 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 10 月 10 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 438.80 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7620.74 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 482.40/260.20 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 40,718.96 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 9,279.62 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0987 | 投资要点： 买入（维持）事件： ⚫ 我们预计腾讯 24Q3 实现营业收入 1658 亿元，同比增长 7%；调整后归母净利润 535 亿元， 同比增长 19%。 ⚫ 近期政策积极信号释放，带来资本市场提振，腾讯投资公司估值亦提升；未来对消费展 望有望转向乐观但需要时间。腾讯基本面确定性仍 ...

盈利预测：注：归母净利润和 EPS 均为 NonGAAP 口径； [Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 【 广 发 传 媒 & 海 外 】 腾 讯 控 股 （00700.HK） 24Q3 前瞻：游戏趋势向好，广告韧性较强 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 24Q3 业绩前瞻：预计 24Q3 收入达 1658 亿元，YoY/QoQ+7%/+3%。 24Q3 NonGAAP 归母净利润预计达 542 亿元，YoY/QoQ+21%/-5%。 NonGAAP 摊薄每股盈利为 5.68 元，YoY+22%，QoQ-5%。 预计 24Q3 游戏业绩趋势持续向好，广告彰显韧性，金融业务受消费疲 弱拖累。（1）24Q3 游戏收入预计达到 515 亿元，YoY/QoQ+12%/+6%， 其中，预计国内游戏同比增长 11%，海外游戏收入预计同比增长 14%。 国内新产品《地下城与勇士：起源》贡献增量，但去年下半年国内老游 戏的流水压力会对今年的游戏递延收入带来拖累，而海外游戏受益于 24Q1 流水增长加速，预计短期的增长提速效应更明显。（2）24Q3 社 交网络收入预计为 299 亿元，YoY+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700 HK) with a target price range of 473 63-526 25 HKD [1][3] Core Views - The report highlights the potential financial and business impact of Taobao's full integration with WeChat Pay, estimating significant revenue growth for WeChat Pay [1][8] - The integration is expected to bring in billions of RMB annually, with a potential revenue increase of 1%-4% for Tencent's FinTech and Business Services (FTB) segment by FY25 [1][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of data flow from e-commerce transactions, which could help Tencent improve its e-commerce capabilities, particularly in live-streaming e-commerce on WeChat Channels [1][21] Financial Impact Analysis - The report estimates that Taobao's integration with WeChat Pay could generate 4 2-25 0 billion RMB annually, depending on the penetration rate and fee structure [1][16] - Under conservative, neutral, and optimistic scenarios, the revenue impact is projected at 4 2, 8 3, and 25 0 billion RMB respectively for every 5% penetration rate [1][16] - The report forecasts that Tencent's FTB business will maintain a "low growth + gradual gross margin improvement" state due to changes in revenue structure and increased usage of WeChat Pay's "zero balance" payments [1][22] Business Impact Analysis - The integration is expected to enhance Tencent's e-commerce data capabilities, particularly in live-streaming e-commerce, which saw a 3x growth in GMV in 2023 compared to 2022 [1][21] - The report notes that WeChat Pay's data flow could help Tencent build a more robust e-commerce ecosystem, especially in areas where it has been historically weak [1][21] Financial Projections - The report projects Tencent's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 6655, 7257, and 7840 billion RMB, with year-over-year growth rates of 9%, 9%, and 8% respectively [1] - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to be 2197, 2464, and 2742 billion RMB for 2024-2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 39%, 12%, and 11% respectively [1] - Non-IFRS EPS is projected to be 23 94, 27 55, and 31 44 RMB for 2024-2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 44%, 15%, and 14% respectively [1]