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李宜格 股价表现 微信支付马来西亚钱包 WeChat Pay MY 宣布自 2024 年 8 月 1 日起停止新用户注册， 并将于 9 月 1 日全面停止支付服务。微信支付官方表示，此举是基于马来西亚当地 业务策略的调整。尽管停止新用户注册，现有用户仍可通过现有服务提取资金。微 信支付强调，此次调整不影响中国游客在马来西亚的支付体验，马来西亚用户在中 国境内消费时，仍可使用微信支付。 微信支付与马来西亚央行旗下金融基础设施 PayNet 的合作将继续，支持用户通过 PayNet 体系下的多个钱包扫微信支付收款码支付。微信支付在便利境外来华人士 支付方面，通过提升"开户-绑卡-支付"全流程体验，已为数百万外籍来华人士提 供服务，交易笔数和金额保持高水平增长，累计达数千万和数十亿的规模，以 2024 年 6 月数据来看，月交易笔数同比增长超 6 倍，月交易金额同比增长超 4 倍。 数据显示，微信支付国际业务持续扩展，目前覆盖 74 个国家和地区，支持 31 个币 种结算，境外合作机构超千家，境外商户超 600 万。随着"免签朋友圈"不断扩大， 微信支付国际业务将迎来持续增长。 在若干国家或司法管辖区，分发、发行或 ...

第一上海 公司评论 在若干国家或司法管辖区，分发、发行或使用本报告可能会抵触当地法律、规定或其他注册/发牌 的规例。本报告不是旨在向该等国家或司法管辖区的任何人或单位分发或由其使用。 本报告由第一上海证券有限公司("第一上海")编制，仅供机构投资者一般审阅。未经第一上海 事先明确书面许可，就本报告之任何材料、内容或印本，不得以任何方式复制、摘录、引用、更 改、转移、传输或分发给任何其他人。本报告所载的数据、工具及材料只提供给阁下作参考之用， 并非作为或被视为出售或购买或认购证券或其它金融票据，或就其作出要约或要约邀请，也不构 成投资建议。阁下不可依赖本报告中的任何内容作出任何投资决策。本报告及任何资料、材料及 内容并未有考虑到个别的投资者的特定投资目标、财务情况、风险承受能力或任何特别需要。阁 下应综合考虑到本身的投资目标、风险评估、财务及税务状况等因素，自行作出本身独立的投资 决策。 公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|------------------ ...

被低估的版图，多口径量化测算腾讯投资板块价值几何？ ——腾讯控股（0700.HK）投资版图价值分析及动态跟踪点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------|-----------------|-----------------------------------------|-------|-------| | 指标 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E | | | | | | | 营业收入（亿人民币元） | | | 5,545.5 6,089.4 6,604.4 7,245.4 7,832.2 | | | | 营业收入增长率 | -1.0% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.1% | | Non-IFRS 净利润（亿人民币元） | | | 1,156.5 1,576.9 2,115.5 2,364.7 2,554.2 | | | | 净利润增长率 | -33.5% | ...

有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 私域流量撬动电商杠杆 ——腾讯视频号电商深度报告 2 核心观点 ⚫ 近期，腾讯微信直播电商发生多个重大变化：包括组织构架进行大规模调整，新加 入小店分享员功能，加入了新的电商投流工具"全域通"，强化品牌招商等。综合 微信潜在直播电商 GMV 天花板我们认为在 3.6 万亿。 ⚫ 私域：上限预期共计 1.3 万亿，主要涵盖了 1）小程序商户 GMV 的存量转化（潜在 上限 8000 亿）；2）小店分享员带来的联盟模式增量 GMV（潜在上限 4800 亿）。 我们认为视频号电商近期组织构架的变化意味着小程序 GMV 存量转化加速；而小店 分享员新玩法带来的社交裂变我们认为非常适合微信调性。 ⚫ 公域：上限预期共计 2.4 万亿，其中主要包括来自于朋友圈广告推流带来的成交 0.28 万亿+视频号推流带来的 2.07 万亿。视频号 1）视频号 DAU：用户增长依赖于 内容驱动，跟创作者基数息息相关。从来源分布来看，视频号内生创作者主要来自 于公众号和朋友圈创作者的转化；外源创作 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HKD 397.82 (RMB 363.51, HKD/RMB=0.91) [4][5] Core Views - Tencent's WeChat Live E-commerce has undergone significant organizational changes, including the addition of new features like "Shop Share Assistants" and new tools like "Quanyutong" for e-commerce traffic, with a potential GMV ceiling of 3.6 trillion RMB [3] - Private domain GMV is expected to reach 1.3 trillion RMB, driven by the conversion of existing mini-program merchants (800 billion RMB) and the incremental GMV from Shop Share Assistants (480 billion RMB) [3] - Public domain GMV is projected at 2.4 trillion RMB, with 280 billion RMB from朋友圈广告推流 and 2.07 trillion RMB from video号推流 [3] - Video号 DAU is expected to reach 680 million, driven by 186 million content creators, with average user time on the platform estimated at 80 minutes [3] - Video号's e-commerce is expected to enter a rapid growth phase starting in 2024, with IFRS net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at 170.8 billion, 196.9 billion, and 226.5 billion RMB, respectively [4] Financial Projections - Revenue growth is expected to accelerate, with 2024-2026 revenue forecasts at 685.02 billion, 774.44 billion, and 840.91 billion RMB, respectively [11] - Operating profit is projected to grow significantly, with 2024-2026 forecasts at 222.3 billion, 264.62 billion, and 304.98 billion RMB, respectively [11] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rebound, with 2024-2026 forecasts at 170.82 billion, 196.87 billion, and 226.49 billion RMB, respectively [11] E-commerce Growth Drivers - The integration of WeChat Live E-commerce with mini-programs and公众号 is expected to accelerate GMV conversion, with a potential conversion ceiling of 800 billion RMB [3][54] - The Shop Share Assistant feature is expected to bring incremental GMV of 480 billion RMB, leveraging social裂变 and联盟模式 [3][36] - Video号's e-commerce growth is driven by its unique content ecosystem, with a focus on non-entertainment content, which is expected to account for 77% of public domain traffic [3][27] Content Ecosystem - Video号's content creators are primarily sourced from公众号 (17%), Douyin (26%), and Kuaishou (21%), with the remaining 36% coming from other platforms [88] - The platform's content is skewed towards严肃向 content, with泛生活,泛娱乐,泛资讯, and泛知识 categories expected to account for 65%, 17%, 1%, and 17% of content, respectively [162] - Video号's DAU is expected to grow to 680 million, driven by 186 million content creators, with a focus on泛生活 and泛知识 content [107][108] Market Positioning - Video号's e-commerce is positioned differently from Douyin and Kuaishou, leveraging WeChat's私域流量 and公域流量 to create a unique ecosystem [3][25] - The platform's直播加载率 is expected to be lower than Douyin's, at 8.4%, with a steady-state成交单价 of 125 RMB,介于抖快之间 [3][27]

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公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 第一上海 公司评论 免责声明 第一上海或其一家或多家关联公司可能或已经，就本报告所载信息、评论或投资策略，发布不一 致或得出不同结论的其他报告或观点。 信息、意见和估计均按"现况"提供，不提供任何形式的 保证，并可随时更改，恕不另行通知。 在若干国家或司法管辖区，分发、发行或使用本报告可能会抵触当地法律、规定或其他注册/发牌 的规例。本报告不是旨在向该等国家或司法管辖区的任何人或单位分发或由其使用。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|--------|--------------|----------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | 第一上海证券有限公司 | | | | | | 香港中环德辅道中 71 号 | | | | | 永安集团大厦 | 19 楼 | | | | 电话 | | : (852) 2522-2101 | | | | 传真 | | : (852) 2810-6789 | | | | 网址： | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (0700 HK) [2] Core Views - Tencent's 24Q2 revenue is expected to reach 1618 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8 5% [2] - Non-IFRS net profit is projected to be 502 billion yuan, up 33 6% year-on-year [2] - The company's gaming business is performing well, with domestic and overseas game revenues expected to grow by 8% and 14% respectively [2] - Advertising revenue is anticipated to increase by 22% to 305 billion yuan, driven by WeChat video ads and mini-program ads [2] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue is forecasted to grow by 7% to 520 billion yuan [2] Business Segment Analysis Gaming Business - Domestic gaming revenue is expected to reach 343 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year, with new game "DNF Mobile" performing exceptionally well [2] - Overseas gaming revenue is projected to grow by 14% to 145 billion yuan, with "Brawl Stars" and "Squad Busters" contributing significantly [2] - Several new games are scheduled for release in the second half of 2024, including "Need for Speed: United" and "World Genesis" [2] Advertising Business - WeChat video ads are expected to drive growth, with the integration of video e-commerce into the WeChat ecosystem [2] - Mini-program ads are also performing strongly, benefiting from small game and short drama advertising [2] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Payment revenue growth has slowed due to weak offline consumption, but enterprise services continue to grow rapidly [2] - The company's AI capabilities, including the upgraded Hunyuan model and Yuanbao APP, are expected to enhance long-term competitiveness [2] Financial Projections - Revenue for FY2024-2026 is projected to be 6710/7333/7957 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 10 2%/9 3%/8 5% [2] - Non-IFRS net profit for the same period is expected to be 2180/2488/2729 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 38 3%/14 1%/9 7% [2] - The company's PE ratio under the Non-IFRS framework is projected to be 15/13/12x for FY2024-2026 [2]

证 券 研 究 报 告 腾讯控股(0700.HK)再认知系列深度报告 II 推荐(维持) 量化分红、回购的财务影响,从股东回报和 业务发展看公司合理估值区间 ❖ 引言:股东回报重要性抬升,如何量化与认知。2022 年以来,腾讯整体收入 开始放缓,降本增效与股东回报开始成为新的关注点。而我们也确实观察到腾 讯近两年现金分红比例的持续提升,和屡创纪录的回购金额,股东回报开始清 晰。而重视股东回报后的腾讯,究竟会释放出多大的财务改善?聚焦这一变化, 本文主要探讨三个问题:1)如何量化股东回报的影响?2)持续股东回报的底 气从何而来?提升潜力还有多大?3)新范式下,腾讯估值如何参考? ❖ 如何量化股东回报与增长新范式: .1 派息和回购或将为 24 年带来中性/乐观 3.2/4.1%的税后股东回报。腾讯 当前的股东回报分为现金分红和回购两部分。现金分红率在近两年显著 提升(21 年 10.7%/23 年 18.5%)。回购方面,大额回购开始于 22 年中 大股东宣布长期减持计划后,并在 23 年 12 月征求意见稿后金额被进一 步加大。在 23 年报中,公司宣布将在 24 年将回购金额翻倍到千亿港币 以上;截止 24 ...