证券研究报告 | 2026年01月21日 2026年01月22日 策略专题 长线稳定型外资加仓 AH 高景气板块——2025Q4 股市外资季度 动向跟踪 核心结论：①Q4 北向资金整体小幅流入 63 亿元，其中长线外资流出约 140 亿元，短线外资流入约 262 亿元。②结构上 A 股长线外资 Q4 主要增配有色、 电子、电力设备等，短线外资主要增配通信、红利等。③外资 Q4 延续流出 港股约 1700 亿港元，其中长线外资、短线外资分别流出约 700 亿港元、1000 亿港元。④结构上港股长线外资 Q4 主要流入医药生物、有色金属等，而短 线外资 Q4 仅流入半导体和部分消费行业等。 A 股外资：增配有色、新能源、电子。从流向数据看，Q4 北向资金整体小幅 流入 63 亿元，其中长线稳定型外资流出约 140 亿元，短线灵活型外资流入 约 262 亿元。从持股占比看，Q4 陆股通占 A 股自由流通市值比重自上季度的 5.2%下滑至 5.1%，其中稳定型外资持股占比从 67%下滑至 65%，灵活型外资 占比则从 30%上升至 32%。结构层面看，2025Q4 北向资金增配有色、电子等， 减配医药、食品饮料等。从 ...

另外，从这次AI浪潮来看，一个国家有强大的内需市场对科技创新也有重要的促进作用，强大的需求 和盈利能力能够吸引全球的资源、人才和资本为创新服务。以海外领先的模型GPT和Gemini为例，这些 已经成了不少投资者做研究的日常必备工具，其C端每年200美元左右的订阅费构成了企业现阶段重要 的收入来源之一，在"AI泡沫论"争议的今天，这些实打实的订阅收入对模型企业融资和持续投入的信心 起了重要作用。对比来看，他投资的一家国内企业也拥有国内领先的基础模型能力，如果有更加强劲的 消费环境，订阅收入和模型能力投入就能实现更好的互动，有助于未来追近全球领先的模型水平。 他始终对组合中企业的商业模式、竞争壁垒和现金流产生能力充满信心。"市场先生"的出价已经使得一 些优质公司即使私有化也是非常划算的，对长期投资者是很好的机会。 1月22日，易方达基金发布旗下基金2025年四季报，张坤管理的易方达蓝筹精选基金在2025年四季度股 票仓位基本稳定，并对结构进行了调整，调整了医药、消费和科技等行业的结构。个股方面，仍然持有 商业模式出色、行业格局清晰、竞争力强的优质公司。 具体来看，截至2025年四季度末，该基金的前十大重仓股分别是 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，Wind数据显示，1月21日，共38只港股获公司回购，5只个股回购金额超千万港元。其 中，小米集团-W、泡泡玛特、舜宇光学科技回购金额最大，分别获公司回购2.48亿港元、9648.96万港 元和6138.52万港元。截至1月21日，今年已有105只港股获公司回购，7只个股年内累计回购金额超亿港 元。其中，腾讯控股、小米集团-W、舜宇光学科技年内累计回购金额最大，分别获公司回购63.58亿港 元、20.49亿港元和6.86亿港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，根据2026年1月21日披露数据，中国电信（00728）、绿色动力环保（01330）、天 津创业环保股份（01065）位居港股通持股比例前3位，分别为70.91%、69.45%、67.62%。此外，阿里 巴巴－W（09988）、中芯国际（00981）、华虹半导体（01347）在最近有统计数据的5个交易日内，持 股额增幅最大，分别为+22.29亿元、+16.93亿元、+13.79亿元;中国移动（00941）、优必选（09880）、 快手-W（01024）在最近有统计数据的5个交易日内，持股额减幅最大，分别为-26.13亿元、-7.87亿 元、-7.39亿元。 2、港股通最近5个交易日增持榜（前10名） | 公司名称 | 持股额变动 | 持股数变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 阿里巴巴－W(09988) | +22.29亿元 | +1365.72万股 | | 中芯国际(00981) | +16.93亿元 | +2191.43万股 | | 华虹半导体(01347) | +13.79亿元 | +1303.34万股 | | 腾讯控股(00700) | +9.17亿元 | +152 ...

智通财经APP获悉，新鸿基地产-R(80016)、华润啤酒-R(80291)、友邦保险-R(81299)上一交易日沽空比 率位于前三位，分别为100.00%、100.00%、100.00%。小米集团-W(01810)、百度集团-SW(09888)、阿 里巴巴-W(09988)的沽空金额位居前三，分别为11.28 亿元、11.06 亿元、9.95 亿元。中国平安- R(82318)、京东集团-SWR(89618)、新鸿基地产-R(80016)的偏离值位居前三，分别为58.81%、38.75%、 35.83%。 前十大沽空比率排行 前十大沽空偏离值排行 | 偏离值↓ | 股票名称 | 沽空金额 | 沽空比率 | 中国平安-R(82318) | 323.71 万元 | 92.98% | 58.81% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 京东集团-SWR(89618) | 32.09 万元 | 98.46% | 38.75% | 新鸿基地产-R(80016) | 19.67 万元 | 100.00% | 35.83% | | 九兴控股(01836 ...

Group 1 - The top three companies with net inflow of southbound funds are SMIC (00981) with 458 million, Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) with 405 million, and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) with 390 million [1] - The top three companies with net outflow of southbound funds are China Mobile (00941) with -601 million, UBTECH (09880) with -516 million, and Sanofi (01530) with -357 million [1] - In terms of net inflow ratio, Haitian Flavoring (03288) leads with 76.61%, followed by Southern Hong Kong Stock Connect (03432) with 62.50%, and CIMC (02039) with 59.57% [1] Group 2 - The top ten companies by net inflow include Tencent Holdings (00700) with 272 million and Alibaba-W (09988) with 263 million [2] - The top ten companies by net outflow include Meituan-W (03690) with -287 million and Bilibili-W (09626) with -242 million [2] - The top three companies with the highest net outflow ratio are Dekang Agriculture (02419) at -50.69%, Sanofi (01530) at -47.05%, and Jianfa International Group (01908) at -45.45% [3]

例如百度的自动驾驶平台不仅提供自动驾驶软件，更打造了涵盖智能道路基础设施、AI地图、传感器 及云端协同的完整移动出行系统。华为则为工业园区、港口等提供"交钥匙"全套人工智能系统，涵盖AI 门禁控制、安全监控、5G网络、数据中心和软件等。AI不仅限于大都市。在中国农村，电商平台为农 民提供AI驱动的多种工具，用于诊断作物病害、预测产量和最佳定价等。 开源在中国的AI及更广泛的科技生态中扮演着战略性角色。不同于西方，中国把开源当作一种发展加 速器与协作机制。中国企业和研究机构使成千上万的开发者、初创企业、高校及地方政府能基于共同的 基础进行创新。开源模式契合中国重视集体解决问题和标准化的传统。共享平台使产业、学术界和政府 更容易围绕共同的技术路线图协作。这对智慧城市、工业自动化和能源系统等大型项目至关重要。 中国的AI模式对全球南方国家具有特别的吸引力。对许多新兴经济体而言，西方的做法造成财务和制 度障碍。中国则提供了可负担的低成本替代方案：将AI作为共享基础设施，目的是广泛应用而非仅供 少数精英使用。该战略通过集成开发环境而非独立技术实现。借助"数字丝绸之路"等倡议，中国企业将 人工智能系统与电网、5G网络、数 ...

大型蓝筹股涨跌不一，汇丰控股收报129.700港元，较香港收市涨1.17%；腾讯控股收报599.924港元，较香港收市跌0.43%。 | 序号 名称 | | 港股代码 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | ADR代码 | ADR换算价 | 较港股升跌 | 较港股升跌% | ADR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 腾讯控股 | 0 00700 | 602.500 | +1.500 | 0.25% | TCEHY | 599.924 | -2.576 | -0.43% | 7 | | 2 | 阿里巴巴-W | 099888 | 163.200 | +3.500 | 2.19% | BABA | 164.396 | +1.196 | 0.73% | 16 | | 3 | 汇丰控股 | 00005 | 128.200 | -0.200 | -0.16% | HSBC | 129.700 | +1.500 | 1.17% | 8 | | 4 | 建设银行 | 00939 | 7.670 | -0.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings is expected to report Q4 2025 earnings with a revenue forecast of 194.6 billion yuan, representing a 13% year-on-year growth, driven by stable performance in online advertising, gaming, and financial technology sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Gaming Sector - The online gaming revenue is projected to reach 58 billion yuan in Q4 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, with strong performances from established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [2][5]. - The new game "Delta Action" is expected to perform well, with user acquisition efforts ramping up during the 2026 Spring Festival, potentially boosting revenue further [2][5]. - The overseas gaming market is anticipated to grow by 22% year-on-year, with titles like Supercell's "Clash Royale" and the AAA game "Dying Light: The Following" showing strong performance [2][5]. Group 2: Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue is expected to reach 41.3 billion yuan in Q4 2025, marking an 18% year-on-year growth, supported by stable growth in video accounts and the release of more advertising inventory [2][5]. - AI integration in advertising is projected to mitigate macroeconomic pressures, with significant reductions in operational tasks for advertisers, enhancing overall efficiency [2][5]. Group 3: Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue is forecasted to be 61.2 billion yuan, showing a 9% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by payment services [3][6]. - The introduction of AI applications and tools in WeChat mini-programs is expected to provide comprehensive support for developers, facilitating the rapid transformation of ideas into profitable products [3][6]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is increasing investments in AI talent and capabilities, with a long-term growth potential in areas like WeChat e-commerce and AI Agent empowerment not fully reflected in current profit forecasts [3][6]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are projected at 260.1 billion, 296.1 billion, and 339.9 billion yuan, with slight downward adjustments of 1%-2% [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 13% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit increasing by 16% to 643 billion [1] Group 1: Gaming Business - Tencent's gaming revenue is projected to grow by 16% year-on-year in Q4, with a sequential slowdown due to the longer deferral period of "Delta" and no new game launches in the domestic market [2] - "Counter-Strike: Future" has launched on both platforms, reaching over 10 million players shortly after its release, with expected first-year revenue between 35-70 billion [2] - Key upcoming projects for 2026 include "Rock Kingdom: World" in March and "Honor of Kings World" in spring, along with several other titles [2] Group 2: Financial Technology - Financial technology revenue is anticipated to grow by 9% year-on-year in Q4, primarily due to a slowdown in social retail growth [3] - AI mini-programs are expected to enhance e-commerce, transportation, and local life scenarios, with significant growth in token usage and paid penetration rates anticipated in 2026 [3] - In 2025, the monetization scale of AI application mini-programs increased by 108%, with eCPM rising by 75% [3] Group 3: Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue is expected to grow by 20% year-on-year in Q4, driven by increased budgets from long-tail advertisers and efficiency improvements from AI [4] - WeChat is gradually evolving towards a shelf-like e-commerce model, introducing social relationship-based product recommendations and exploring differentiated social e-commerce features [4] - In 2025, the GPM of WeChat mini-stores increased to 1.5 times compared to 2024, with a 70% year-on-year growth in the average number of active merchants [4] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for Tencent have been adjusted downwards by 0.5% to 0.8% for 2025-2027, primarily due to changes in gaming revenue deferral predictions [5] - Adjusted net profit forecasts have been revised down by 0.9% to 0.5% to 263.1 billion, 299.4 billion, and 342.5 billion respectively, mainly due to increased AI investment costs [5] - The target price for Tencent is set at 792 HKD, corresponding to a 21.6 times PE valuation for 2026 [5]