小米集团昨日公布重磅财报，今日港股盘后腾讯控 股将接棒公布，重点关注2025年Capex 消息面上，腾讯宣布将于3月19日港股盘后发布2024年第四季度及全年财报。财报发布后，公司将 于20:00举行业绩会。盈利能力上，市场将关注腾讯的毛利率趋势；广告业务聚焦微信小店、直播间对 广告增量的指引；游戏业务关注《地下城与勇士》移动版复常、旗舰游戏预期及新游进展。同时，其 2025年AI领域资本开支规划或将成为市场关注焦点。 3月18日港股盘后，小米集团发布2024全年及2024年第四季度财报。小米等港股龙头公司近期公布 新一轮财报数据，盈利表现较为亮眼，整体超预期。港股进入财报密集披露季，相关龙头公司业绩预期 兑现或超预期有望持续支撑港股走势。 今年以来，南向资金净买入港股金额已超3800亿港元。南向资金持续流入，如何一键配置港股科技 公司？公开信息显示，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）标的指数囊括30家港股科技龙头，软硬科技兼备， 成分股深度聚焦AI产业链的上中下游，覆盖了AI芯片、云厂商、大模型、AI端侧、AI应用等热门领 域，其中阿里、腾讯、小米、美团、中芯国际等有望成为中国科技股"七巨头"。从底层逻辑来 ...

阿里领跑AI狂欢之际 分析师：腾讯(00700)或将接力迎"高光时刻" 智通财经APP获悉，随着阿里巴巴(09988)因中国在人工智能领域的成功而吸引了投资者的目光，腾讯仍在等待属于自己的高光时刻。 在DeepSeek引发的热潮推动下，阿里巴巴在香港上市的股票今年迄今的涨幅是腾讯30%涨幅的两倍多。腾讯将于周三收盘后发布的财报将为其追赶潜力提供 重要线索，包括其在人工智能业务上的计划投资规模。 腾讯股价距离创下历史新高仍有30%以上的差距，这一距离已比许多同行更近。作为该行业长期领军企业之一，腾讯若能触及新高，可能有助于象征该行业 真正重回正轨。 该公司预计将报告截至12月的季度销售额增长8.7%，为一年多以来的最佳表现。分析师预计其毛利率为53.3%，接近八年来的最高水平。 "腾讯在人工智能领域的成功可能会重新激发投资者对中国科技股的信心，"老虎证券香港资产管理首席投资官David Chen表示。这将"验证整个行业正在进 行的重大投资，并可能引发对以人工智能为重点的中国科技公司的重新估值。" 中国政府最新提出的提振消费的承诺，进一步推动了中国股市以科技股为主导的上涨势头。这也将投资者的注意力转向了腾讯，看其 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to report a revenue of 168.9 billion RMB for Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, and an annual revenue of 656.5 billion RMB, reflecting a 7.8% increase [2] - The core business's Non-GAAP net profit is projected to reach 54.1 billion RMB in Q4, up 26.7% year-on-year, and 220.6 billion RMB for the full year, marking a 39.9% increase [2] - The gaming segment is anticipated to see continued revenue growth due to the implementation of evergreen game strategies and the introduction of new titles [3] - Marketing services revenue is expected to rise significantly, driven by the growth of video accounts and the optimization of the WeChat e-commerce ecosystem [4] - The cloud business aims for operational efficiency while reducing costs, with a focus on high-quality growth and an expected balance between revenue and expenses [5] Revenue Forecast - Q4 revenue forecast: 168.9 billion RMB, up 8.8% YoY [2] - Full-year revenue forecast: 656.5 billion RMB, up 7.8% YoY [2] - Value-added services revenue for Q4: 77.1 billion RMB, up 11.6% YoY; full-year: 317.2 billion RMB, up 6.3% YoY [2] - Marketing services revenue for Q4: 33.8 billion RMB, up 13.6% YoY; full-year: 120.2 billion RMB, up 18.46% YoY [2] - Cloud and financial services revenue for Q4: 55.9 billion RMB, up 2.7% YoY; full-year: 211.7 billion RMB, up 3.9% YoY [2] Gaming Segment Insights - The number of evergreen games is expected to increase from 8 to 10, contributing to sustained revenue growth [3] - Key titles like "Honor of Kings" and "PUBG MOBILE" continue to lead in revenue generation [3] - The overseas business is showing robust growth, with overseas revenue expected to approach half of total revenue [3] Marketing Services Insights - Video account advertising is becoming a significant revenue source, second only to Moments ads [4] - The integration of WeChat mini-stores and video accounts is expected to enhance social e-commerce traffic [4] - AI technology is anticipated to improve advertising precision and increase ROI for advertisers [4] Cloud Business Insights - The cloud segment is focusing on achieving operational balance while enhancing AI-related services [5] - The commercialization of SaaS tools like Tencent Meeting is expected to accelerate growth [5] - Overall revenue improvement is anticipated, with cost reduction efforts continuing [5]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on Tencent Holdings with an expected revenue growth of 8.8% year-on-year for Q4 2024 and 7.8% for the entire year [4]. Core Insights - Tencent is anticipated to report a Q4 revenue of 168.9 billion RMB, with a full-year revenue forecast of 656.5 billion RMB, reflecting strong growth in value-added services and marketing services [4]. - The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 54.1 billion RMB in Q4, marking a 26.7% increase year-on-year, and 220.6 billion RMB for the full year, representing a 39.9% growth [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with lower-than-expected sales and management expense ratios [5]. Revenue Breakdown - Value-added services are expected to generate 77.1 billion RMB in Q4, up 11.6% year-on-year, and 317.2 billion RMB for the full year, an increase of 6.3% [4]. - Marketing services are projected to grow by 13.6% year-on-year in Q4 to 33.8 billion RMB, with a full-year growth of 18.46% to 120.2 billion RMB [4]. - Cloud and financial services are expected to record 55.9 billion RMB in Q4, a 2.7% increase, and 211.7 billion RMB for the full year, up 3.9% [4]. AI and Product Development - Tencent's new feature in Tencent Yuanbao allows users to upload and export Tencent documents, enhancing productivity and collaboration [6]. - Tencent Games is set to showcase new products at the 2025 Game Developers Conference, including the highly anticipated multiplayer adventure game "Honor of Kings World," which could contribute 1 to 1.5 billion RMB monthly if successful [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tencent Holdings [1] Core Insights - Tencent has made significant updates to its user agreement for its virtual currency, addressing user concerns over content copyright and data ownership [2] - The launch of Tencent's "Hunyuan" model, which converts static images into dynamic videos, showcases the company's commitment to advancing AI technology and expanding its open-source ecosystem [3] - Tencent is undergoing a major restructuring of its QQ short video team, indicating a strategic shift in response to competitive pressures in the short video market [4] - Tencent's gaming division continues to dominate the Chinese mobile gaming market, with seven out of the top ten revenue-generating games in February 2025, highlighting its strong market position [5] Summary by Sections User Agreement Updates - Tencent revised its user agreement for virtual currency "Yuanbao" multiple times in response to public backlash, emphasizing user rights and data management [2] AI Developments - The "Hunyuan" model was released on March 6, 2025, featuring 13 billion parameters and capabilities for generating videos from images, contributing to Tencent's multi-modal open-source ecosystem [3] Social Media Strategy - The QQ short video team is facing significant layoffs as Tencent refocuses its resources on core social functions and innovative directions, reflecting a strategic realignment in the competitive landscape [4] Gaming Performance - Tencent's gaming titles, including "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite," led the Chinese mobile gaming revenue rankings in February 2025, demonstrating the company's robust market presence and ongoing global expansion efforts [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Tencent is deeply integrating its products with DeepSeek, showcasing the value of its ecosystem across multiple scenarios. The integration of AI technology into its products is aimed at enhancing intelligence levels and capturing market share, which is crucial for finding new growth paths in the application market. Tencent's ability to combine AI capabilities with its core services in social, content, and finance is creating a responsive network of intelligent services that could generate network effects difficult for competitors to replicate [4][5]. Summary by Sections To C (Consumer Segment) - Several consumer products, including WeChat, QQ Music, and QQ Browser, have integrated DeepSeek. WeChat, with over 1 billion MAUs, is expected to accelerate AI functionality penetration in consumer scenarios due to its content ecosystem. Tencent Yuanbao has also seen significant downloads, ranking first in the Apple China free app download list shortly after integrating DeepSeek [5]. To B (Business Segment) - Tencent's WeChat for Enterprises has launched an intelligent robot that integrates DeepSeek, allowing businesses to create custom "smart assistants" for various internal tasks. This development is expected to enhance user engagement and willingness to pay. Tencent Docs has also integrated DeepSeek, enabling AI functionalities that could increase user payment penetration and drive growth in the B2B market [5][6]. Advertising - The report highlights the potential for AI to enhance advertising conversion rates significantly. AI is transforming the advertising industry by improving the entire chain from production to user experience, similar to the impacts seen with Google and Meta. Tencent's advertising business is expected to see substantial improvements in both revenue and profit due to AI integration [6][7]. Gaming - The gaming sector is stable, with a focus on revitalizing older games through AI capabilities. Tencent's integration of DeepSeek into popular games like "Peacekeeper Elite" is expected to enhance user experience and retention, thereby improving average revenue per user (ARPU) [7]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for Tencent for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 220.80 billion, 238.91 billion, and 260.27 billion CNY respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 40.03%, 8.20%, and 8.94%. The company is expected to maintain a competitive advantage through its comprehensive integration of DeepSeek [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [3]. Core Insights - Tencent has launched the TurboS model, which significantly reduces response time and enhances processing capabilities, positioning it competitively against leading models like DeepSeek V3 and GPT-4o [3]. - The introduction of the Tencent Yuanbao desktop version enhances its AI capabilities, supporting various advanced features and achieving a 127% increase in monthly active users since integrating DeepSeek [4]. - Tencent's Interactive Entertainment Group has undergone a structural adjustment to focus on vertical markets and refined operations, aiming to enhance efficiency and competitive strength in specific gaming segments [5]. - The WeChat Mini Store has initiated a brand merchant incentive program to accelerate e-commerce growth, offering reduced service fees and enhanced visibility for participating brands [6]. Summary by Sections AI Developments - Tencent launched the TurboS model on February 27, 2025, which features a 44% reduction in initial response time and doubles the output speed, with a cost-effective API pricing structure [3]. - The Tencent Yuanbao desktop version was released on March 1, 2025, supporting advanced features like 64k token processing and image semantic analysis, contributing to a significant increase in user engagement [4]. Gaming Sector - On February 26, 2025, Tencent's Interactive Entertainment Group announced a new organizational structure focusing on specialized departments to enhance operational efficiency and competitive positioning in the gaming market [5]. E-commerce Initiatives - The WeChat Mini Store's brand merchant incentive program, running from March 5 to June 30, 2025, aims to boost e-commerce growth by offering reduced fees and increased exposure for new brands [6].

Group 1 - Tencent Holdings has seen continuous net buying from southbound funds for 7 days, with a cumulative net buying amount of 9.729 billion HKD, while its stock price has decreased by 0.74% [1] - On March 3, the total trading volume of active stocks through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 62.316 billion HKD, with a net buying amount of 5.016 billion HKD [1] - On the same day, Tencent Holdings had a trading volume of 9.083 billion HKD through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with a net buying amount of 1.852 billion HKD [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tencent Holdings [1]. Core Insights - Tencent has launched the "Lightning War" plan in February 2025, integrating the DeepSeek-R1 model into over ten core products, enhancing search, office, and customer service capabilities [3][4]. - The restructuring of Tencent's AI products into the Cloud and Smart Industry Group (CSIG) aims to leverage B-end technology capabilities with C-end product scenarios, enhancing competitive differentiation in the AI market [4]. - Prosus has reduced its stake in Tencent to 23.89% as of February 21, 2025, and plans to continue reducing its holdings, which may impact Tencent's stock performance [5]. - The game "Peacekeeper Elite" has integrated DeepSeek technology, allowing players to interact with a digital spokesperson for real-time tactical guidance, marking a significant application of AI in gaming [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tencent's current stock price is 497 HKD, with a market capitalization of 4.56 trillion HKD and a total share capital of 9.179 billion [2]. AI Integration - Tencent's AI capabilities are being integrated into various products, including WeChat and QQ Browser, with features like intelligent assistants and enhanced search functionalities [3][4]. Shareholding Changes - Prosus has reduced its holdings in Tencent, which may lead to a decrease in stock price, but Tencent's stock buyback plans and AI business growth could mitigate this impact [5]. Gaming Sector - The integration of DeepSeek technology into "Peacekeeper Elite" represents a significant advancement in AI application within the gaming industry, enhancing user interaction and experience [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [3] Core Views - Tencent is expected to benefit significantly from the revaluation of AI applications and cloud business, leveraging its advantages in application scenarios and data [6][8] - The company has made organizational adjustments to enhance its AI product lines, integrating multiple AI applications into its cloud business group [16][20] - Tencent's AI applications are already showing positive impacts on advertising and cloud revenue, with AI-driven enhancements leading to increased efficiency and user engagement [25][28] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: - 2022: 554,552 million RMB - 2023: 609,015 million RMB (9.8% YoY growth) - 2024E: 657,853 million RMB (8.0% YoY growth) - 2025E: 723,411 million RMB (10.0% YoY growth) - 2026E: 780,334 million RMB (7.9% YoY growth) [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2022: 115,649 million RMB - 2023: 157,688 million RMB (36.4% YoY growth) - 2024E: 224,710 million RMB (42.5% YoY growth) - 2025E: 245,071 million RMB (9.1% YoY growth) - 2026E: 280,292 million RMB (14.4% YoY growth) [7] AI Applications and Cloud Business - Tencent's AI applications are integrated with DeepSeek, enhancing capabilities across various services such as social search, financial services, and enterprise solutions [20][21] - The company is focusing on AI-driven advertising, which has already shown significant growth in user engagement and revenue [25][26] - Tencent's cloud revenue is expected to grow as AI applications become more prevalent, contributing over 10% to its IaaS revenue [28] Organizational Adjustments - Recent structural changes at Tencent have moved several AI product lines into the cloud business group, indicating a strategic shift towards unified management of AI applications and infrastructure [16][18] - This adjustment aims to clarify cost and revenue responsibilities while enhancing the efficiency of AI application deployment [16][17] Investment Portfolio and Market Position - Tencent has invested in various internet companies that possess unique scenarios and private data, which are expected to increase in value as AI applications mature [14] - The company is positioned well in the competitive landscape, with a rich ecosystem of applications and a strong user base, allowing it to capitalize on the growing AI market [12][13]