4月25日恒生指数上涨0.32%，南向资金全天合计成交金额为861.88亿港元，其中，买入成交395.84亿港 元，卖出成交466.03亿港元，合计净卖出金额70.19亿港元。具体来看，港股通（深）累计成交金额 341.67亿港元，买入成交146.53亿港元，卖出成交195.14亿港元，合计净卖出金额48.61亿港元；港股通 （沪）累计成交金额520.21亿港元，买入成交249.31亿港元，卖出成交270.90亿港元，合计净卖出金额 21.59亿港元。 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 今日上榜个股中，美团-W、融创中国、小米集团-W等9只股同时上榜港股通（深）、港股通（沪）成 交活跃股， 美团-W合计成交额32.30亿港元，成交净买入7.45亿港元，融创中国合计成交额24.58亿港 元，成交净买入1.70亿港元。腾讯控股合计成交额53.89亿港元，成交净卖出14.89亿港元，阿里巴巴-W 合计成交额47.94亿港元，成交净卖出8.95亿港元。 从连续性进行统计， 有2只股获南向资金连续3天以上净买入，连续净买入天数较多的有赤峰黄金、美 团-W，连续净买入 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong tech stocks saw a pre-market increase, with NetEase (09999.HK) and Bilibili (09626.HK) rising over 4% [1] - Alibaba (09988.HK) and Baidu (09888.HK) both increased by more than 2% [1] - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) experienced a nearly 2% rise [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights the changes in institutional holdings for various companies in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a significant interest from fund managers [1] - Tencent Holdings saw an increase of 361 in the number of institutional holdings, with a market value of 72.55 billion, representing 1.72% of the circulating shares [1] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (宁德时代) had 191 new institutional holdings, with a market value of 57.92 billion, accounting for 5.87% of the circulating shares [1] Group 2 - Kweichow Moutai (贵州茅台) experienced 16 new institutional holdings, with a market value of 45.36 billion, which is 2.31% of the circulating shares [1] - Alibaba Group (阿里巴巴-W) had 431 new institutional holdings, with a market value of 36.40 billion, representing 1.62% of the circulating shares [1] - Midea Group (美的集团) recorded 71 new institutional holdings, with a market value of 34.58 billion, accounting for 6.39% of the circulating shares [1]

Core Insights - Tencent Holdings has officially released the 2.5 version of its Mix Yuan 3D generative model, significantly enhancing modeling precision and achieving ultra-high-definition geometric detail modeling [1] - The total parameter count of the Mix Yuan 3D model has increased from 1 billion to 10 billion, with the effective polygon count rising over tenfold [1] - The new version supports 4K high-definition textures and fine-grained bump mapping, improving the visual effects of surface textures [1] Group 1 - The effective geometric resolution has been upgraded to 1024, transitioning from standard definition to high definition [1] - The Mix Yuan 3D AI creation engine has been fully updated to the v2.5 model base, with the free generation quota doubled to 20 times per day [1] - The Mix Yuan 3D generation API has been officially launched on Tencent Cloud, available for enterprises and developers [1] Group 2 - The new version is the first in the industry to achieve multi-view input for generating PBR models, significantly enhancing the quality and realism of generated outputs [1] - The bone skinning system has been optimized to support automatic bone binding and weight assignment under non-standard poses, greatly improving 3D animation generation efficiency [1] - The 3D generation workflow features have been further upgraded, providing professional pipeline templates for intelligent decimation models and multi-view 3D models [1] Group 3 - Tencent Mix Yuan actively embraces the open-source ecosystem, with foundational models 1.0 and 2.0, as well as accelerated, multi-view, and lightweight models, all open-sourced [2] - The total number of stars on GitHub for Mix Yuan 3D has exceeded 12,000, continuously enriching the 3D AIGC community [2]

Group 1 - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of 2.309 billion yuan today [1] - In the Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai), Pop Mart and Alibaba-W received net purchases of 353 million HKD and 311 million HKD respectively [1] - Xiaomi Group-W had the highest net sell amount at 615 million HKD [1] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen), Tencent Holdings and Alibaba-W received net purchases of 700 million HKD and 525 million HKD respectively [1] - The Yingfu Fund had the highest net sell amount at 1.4 billion HKD [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that due to revenue growth in advertising and cloud computing, the company has raised its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 1% and 2% respectively, maintaining its "outperform" rating [1] - The target price has been increased by 8.5% to HKD 600, corresponding to a projected Non-IFRS P/E ratio of 20.6 times for this year [1] - In the gaming sector, the company reported a 20% year-on-year increase in gaming revenue for the last quarter, reaching RMB 49.2 billion, exceeding expectations by 3% [1] Group 2 - The company is pursuing a multi-model strategy for its AI layout, combining self-developed models with external open-source models to enhance consumer products [2] - For 2024, the company plans to invest RMB 76.8 billion in capital expenditures, with guidance for 2025 indicating a low double-digit percentage of revenue for capital expenditures [2] - The company announced a 32% increase in annual dividends for 2025 to HKD 41 billion and plans to repurchase at least HKD 80 billion worth of shares [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the valuation of domestic internet companies has seen some recovery this year due to the AI wave, but recent external tariff changes have led to a valuation pullback. Overall, the domestic internet sector remains in a reasonably low valuation range with a safety margin still present [1] Industry Overview - The online advertising market grew by 14% year-on-year in Q4, driven by e-commerce promotional activities and the gradual implementation of AI technology in ad material generation and efficiency optimization [2] - The Chinese gaming market saw a 16% year-on-year growth in Q4, with a seasonal decline of 5% quarter-on-quarter, while Tencent's older games performed well during the Spring Festival [2] - BOSS Zhipin-W reported a 15% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4, with a historical high in daily active users, and AI technology is enhancing matching efficiency and review effectiveness in the recruitment sector [2] AI Impact on Internet Industry - Domestic internet companies have reached near-international advanced levels in model capabilities, optimizing iteration strategies through self-developed and open-source models [3] - AI Agents are becoming a significant development direction, with companies like ByteDance and Tencent building intelligent ecosystems and rapidly growing user bases for dialogue robots [3] - AI is empowering productivity tools and cloud computing services, with products like Meitu Design Studio and Kuaishou-W achieving commercial breakthroughs, driving revenue growth through deep integration of cloud computing and AI [3] - AI is enhancing existing businesses, particularly in advertising and gaming, with companies like Tencent, Kuaishou, and Baidu integrating AI to improve ad targeting and game development efficiency [3] - Domestic internet companies are entering an AI investment cycle, significantly increasing capital expenditures focused on reasoning capabilities, which is expected to drive future commercial growth [3] 2025 Outlook - CICC recommends Tencent as a core investment due to its strong gaming business, organic growth in advertising through video accounts, and a recovering payment business, with a low valuation and strong shareholder return capability [4] - Kuaishou is highlighted for its high profit growth certainty in 2025, with overseas profitability and domestic growth, alongside improved profit margins and a stabilizing e-commerce market [4] - Keling is recognized as a leading global video generation model with mature application scenarios and commercialization models, expected to show strong growth potential [4] - NetEase-S is suggested for long-term attention due to its historically low valuation and long-term content innovation capabilities in the gaming sector [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [5] Core Views - Tencent is focusing on AI iteration, with its app "Tencent Yuanbao" ranking among the top three AI native apps in China, achieving 41.64 million MAU as of March 2025 [1] - The company reported a steady revenue growth of approximately 660.3 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8%, with a gross margin improvement from 48% in 2023 to 53% in 2024 [1][2] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024 is estimated at around 222.7 billion RMB, reflecting a 41% year-on-year growth [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Tencent's domestic game revenue grew by 10% to 139.7 billion RMB, driven by popular titles such as "Valorant" and "League of Legends Mobile" [2] - Advertising revenue increased by 20% year-on-year to 121.4 billion RMB, while financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 4% to 212.0 billion RMB [2] AI Development - Tencent's capital expenditure reached 76.76 billion RMB in 2024, indicating a strong commitment to AI development [2] - The company has invested heavily in self-developed foundational models, achieving top rankings on multiple platforms in 2024 [2] - Daily active users (DAU) for Tencent Yuanbao surged 20 times in early 2024, positioning it as the third-largest AI application [2] Future Projections - Revenue projections for Tencent are estimated at 719.2 billion RMB for 2025, with non-GAAP net profit expected to be around 249.4 billion RMB [3] - The report sets a target price of 566 HKD for Tencent, corresponding to a 20x P/E ratio for 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6][20] Core Views - For Q1 2025, Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of 176.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11%. The growth is driven by strong performance in gaming, advertising, and a slight recovery in financial technology [4][7][8] - The gaming segment is projected to generate 56.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17%. The domestic gaming revenue is expected to grow by 18%, supported by stable performance from established games and the success of new titles [4][12][18] - Advertising revenue is anticipated to reach 31.3 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth, driven by the release of advertising inventory and advancements in advertising technology [4][16] - Financial technology and enterprise services are expected to generate 55 billion yuan, with a 5% year-on-year increase, primarily from payment services [5][17] Summary by Sections Revenue Forecast - Total revenue for Q1 2025 is projected at 176.5 billion yuan, an 11% increase from the previous year. The breakdown includes: - Value-added services: 87.8 billion yuan, up 12% - Online games: 56.1 billion yuan, up 17% - Advertising: 31.3 billion yuan, up 18% - Financial technology and enterprise services: 55 billion yuan, up 5% [9][10][19] Profitability - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to be 60.9 billion yuan, a 21% increase year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 34.5% [5][8][9] Growth Drivers - The growth in gaming is attributed to the solid performance of established titles like "Peacekeeper Elite" and the rising popularity of new games such as "Delta Action," which has surpassed 12 million daily active users [4][18] - Advertising growth is supported by the steady increase in video traffic and the opening of more ad slots, with current ad loading rates at 4% [4][16] - Financial technology growth is linked to the recovery in offline consumption and increased demand for cloud services, with expectations for accelerated growth in Q2 2025 [5][17] Long-term Outlook - The report highlights significant long-term growth potential in areas such as WeChat e-commerce and AI-driven applications, which are not fully reflected in current profit forecasts. Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are 251.5 billion, 282.6 billion, and 312.6 billion yuan, respectively [6][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) [1][28] Core Insights - The core business continues to show strong growth, with operational leverage being released [1] - The report anticipates a revenue of 1,778 billion RMB for Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 11% [7][27] - The expected non-IFRS net profit for Q1 2025 is 617 billion RMB, reflecting a 23% year-over-year growth [7][27] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7,243 billion RMB, 7,891 billion RMB, and 8,604 billion RMB respectively [27][28] - Non-IFRS net profit estimates for the same period are 2,554 billion RMB, 2,891 billion RMB, and 3,235 billion RMB respectively [27][28] - The report predicts a non-IFRS EPS of 28 RMB, 31 RMB, and 35 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [27][28] Business Segment Performance Gaming - Expected revenue growth of 18% year-over-year for Q1 2025, with domestic and overseas growth rates of 19% and 17% respectively [8][12] - Strong performance from long-standing games during the Spring Festival period [11][12] Marketing Services - Anticipated revenue growth of 20% year-over-year for Q1 2025, driven by strong performance in video accounts, mini-programs, and search ads [18][19] - AI continues to enhance marketing services, improving ad targeting and conversion rates [25] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Expected revenue growth of 5% year-over-year for Q1 2025, with improvements in payment services and healthy growth in wealth management and small loans [26] - Cloud business potential is expected to accelerate in Q2 2025 [26] Valuation and Target Price - The report assigns a target market value of 5.0 trillion RMB (5.4 trillion HKD) for Tencent Holdings, corresponding to a target price of 603 HKD [28][29]