浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 互联网行业 腾讯（700.HK）：被美国国防部列入 1260H 清单解读——基本面影响有限， 短期市场情绪承压，维持"买入"评级 图表 1：盈利预测和财务指标 | 人民币百万元 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24E | FY25E | FY26E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 554,552 | 608,940 | 655,499 | 708,570 | 758,304 | | 经营利润 | 235,706 | 165,734 | 211,330 | 228,832 | 246,399 | | 调整后净利润 | 115,649 | 157,613 | 212,467 | 234,620 | 250,348 | | 调整后目标 PE (x) | | | 20.1 | 18.2 | 17.0 | E=浦银国际预测， 资料来源：Bloomberg、浦银国际 赵丹 首席互联网分析师 dan_zhao@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6436 杨子超，CFA 互联网分析师 charles_yang@spdbi ...

科网股领跌，腾讯控股跌超7%，小米集团跌近6%；康希诺生物跌超8%，融创中国跌超3%；东方甄选 涨超7%，中芯国际涨超5%。 香港恒生指数收跌1.22% 腾讯控股跌超7%香港恒生指数收跌1.22%，恒生科技指数跌0.92%。 ...

被列入美国 CMC 清单，短期超跌带来机会 事件：2025 年 1 月 7 日，美国国防部将腾讯公司列入所谓的"第 1260H 条清单"， 旨在对中国军方有联系的企业进行制裁，被列入这份名单并不意味着这些公司会 立即受到制裁禁令的影响，但短期会对公司声誉造成损害。此次名单的更新属于 定期操作，但是将以虚拟货品和服务提供为主营业务的腾讯控股加入到黑名单超 出市场的预料，并且引发 ADR 的大幅下跌。参考过往被列入清单的案例（小米、 禾赛、中微），考虑到腾讯控股的业务范畴，我们相信此次被纳入美国国防部"黑 名单"有较大的可能摆脱影响。 名单调整和移出的可能 参考过往案例，被美国纳入"军事企业黑名单"的企业也有 调整出来的案例，例如小米集团、中微公司、禾赛科技都曾被列入黑名单，且之 后在公司申诉或者起诉之后陆续都被解除。此轮名单更新中包括旷视科技、中国 铁建、中国海防、中国建筑、中国电信、深圳科思都被移除。考虑到腾讯控股的 业务范畴，我们相信此次被纳入美国国防部"黑名单"有较大的可能摆脱影响。 报告摘要 投资建议 此次美国国防部将腾讯列入 CMC 黑名单"黑天鹅"事件对于腾讯的业务 实质不会产生重要影响，且存在较大 ...

证券时报•数据宝统计，腾讯控股在港交所公告显示，1月2日以每股413.800港元至424.600港元的价格回 购168.00万股，回购金额达7.01亿港元。 该股当日收盘价416.000港元，下跌0.24%，全天成交额86.64亿港元。 自2024年11月15日以来公司已连续32日进行回购，合计回购5424.00万股，累计回购金额221.47亿港元。 （数据宝） 腾讯控股回购明细 其间该股累计上涨3.12%。 ...

Company Repurchase Activities - Tencent Holdings repurchased 1 37 million shares with a total amount of HKD 574 million the highest repurchase price was HKD 421 4 and the lowest was HKD 416 the cumulative repurchase amount for the year reached HKD 112 003 billion [1][3] - AIA Group repurchased 1 1058 million shares with a total amount of HKD 62 4812 million the highest repurchase price was HKD 56 85 and the lowest was HKD 56 1 the cumulative repurchase amount for the year was HKD 32 324 billion [1] - Anta Sports repurchased 635 thousand shares with a total amount of HKD 49 7718 million the highest repurchase price was HKD 78 9 and the lowest was HKD 77 45 the cumulative repurchase amount for the year was HKD 1 276 billion [1] Market Overview - On December 31 55 Hong Kong listed companies conducted share repurchases totaling 31 1658 million shares with a combined amount of HKD 890 million [2] - Tencent Holdings had the highest repurchase amount on December 31 at HKD 574 million followed by AIA Group at HKD 62 4812 million and Anta Sports at HKD 49 7718 million [3] - In terms of the number of shares repurchased China Gas Holdings led with 3 9 million shares followed by Andre Juice with 2 7765 million shares and Anton Oilfield Services with 2 168 million shares [3]

证券时报•数据宝统计显示，12月27日有57家香港上市公司进行了股份回购，合计回购3092.37万股，回 购金额10.93亿港元。 腾讯控股回购数量168.00万股，回购金额7.02亿港元，回购最高价为420.600港元，最低价为415.600港 元，年内累计回购金额1107.26亿港元；安踏体育回购数量104.52万股，回购金额8338.08万港元，回购 最高价为80.000港元，最低价为79.350港元，年内累计回购金额9.77亿港元；友邦保险回购数量109.70万 股，回购金额6203.31万港元，回购最高价为57.000港元，最低价为56.250港元，年内累计回购金额 322.00亿港元。 以金额进行统计，12月27日回购金额最多的是腾讯控股，回购金额为7.02亿港元；其次是安踏体育，回 购金额为8338.08万港元；回购金额居前的还有友邦保险、快手-W等。回购数量上看，12月27日回购股 数最多的是石药集团，当日回购量为620.00万股；其次是康龙化成、中远海发等，回购数量分别为 295.18万股、192.80万股。 值得关注的是，本次回购7.02亿港元的腾讯控股，年内则进行多次回购，合计回购金额为 ...

二、"送礼物"的社交玩法催生新的供给和需求 图 6：微信送礼物流程：收礼物方 受短视频挤压的风险。如果短视频用户数、时长进一步显著提升，则会影响用户对 腾讯系部分产品的消费时长，影响腾讯系产品占互联网用户的时长，可能挤压腾讯 的广告市场占有率。 旷 实 ： 首席分析师，北京大学经济学硕士，2017 年 3 月加入广发证券，2011-2017 年 2 月，供职于中银国际证券。 | --- | --- | |------------------|---------------------------------------| | | | | 内 预期未来 12 | 个月内，股价表现强于大盘 10% 以上。 | | 预期未来 12 | 对 个月内，股价相对大盘的变动幅度介于 | | 预期未来 12 | 个月内，股价表现弱于大盘 10% 以上。 | [Table_PageText] 腾讯控股|跟踪研究 [Table_Page] 跟踪研究|软件与服务 在微信中送礼物的交互场景顺畅，也保护了用户的地址等隐私信息，降低了传统模 式和其他线上平台的送礼门槛。我们认为微信送礼物的功能因微信社交关系的便利 性和普及率会高于其他电 ...

证券时报网讯，2024年港股市场回购规模达2623亿港元，创历史新高，上市公司通过回购股份以稳定股 价和市值管理。 汇丰控股、友邦保险、美团-W回购规模均破百亿港元。 校对：刘榕枝 腾讯控股以超1100亿港元回购金额居首，回购活动集中在资讯科技、金融、非必需性消费和医疗保健行 业。 ...

（数据宝） 腾讯控股获南向资金连续4天净买入，累计净买入金额为44.24亿港元，股价累计上涨3.45%。 证券时报•数据宝统计显示，12月24日港股通（包括沪市港股通及深市港股通）成交活跃股合计成交 159.69亿港元，净买入金额为20.56亿港元。 12月24日上榜的成交活跃股中，腾讯控股通过港股通渠道成交金额为14.87亿港元，净买入金额为0.63亿 港元，不仅如此，该股已连续4日出现成交净买入，累计净买入金额为44.24亿港元，其间股价上涨 3.45%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700 HK) [3] Core Viewpoints - Tencent's AI strategy focuses on "industrial practicality" with a dual emphasis on large models and applications The company has been investing in AI since 2012 and has developed a comprehensive AI ecosystem including the Hunyuan large model and various AI tools and applications [3] - Tencent's AI layout covers both B2B and B2C sectors with applications integrated into existing products and new AI-native applications The company's AI capabilities are ranked first in 8 out of 11 core tasks in the SuperCLUE Chinese Large Model Benchmark [21] - The report predicts Tencent's adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 to be 2174 2406 and 2653 billion yuan respectively with corresponding PE (Non-IFRS) ratios of 17 15 and 14 times [21] Development History - Tencent began its AI journey in 2012 with the establishment of the YouTu Lab focusing on computer vision technologies [13] - In 2016 Tencent established the AI Lab which focused on computer vision speech recognition natural language processing and machine learning [14] - In 2018 Tencent upgraded its AI strategy to focus on general AI research and established the Robotics X lab [15] - In 2022 Tencent publicly disclosed the development of its Hunyuan large model which covers NLP CV and multimodal capabilities [17] - By 2024 Tencent's Hunyuan large model had been tested in over 600 internal business scenarios and launched AI-native applications like Tencent Yuanqi and Tencent Yuanbao [18] AI Layout and Applications - Tencent's AI ecosystem includes both B2B and B2C applications with B2B focusing on large models cloud services and PaaS while B2C includes AI-enhanced existing applications and AI-native applications [20] - The Hunyuan large model developed by Tencent has trillion-scale parameters and excels in multimodal capabilities including text-to-image and video generation [25] - Tencent has integrated AI into various internal applications such as Tencent Meeting WeChat and QQ with nearly 700 business scenarios already using the Hunyuan model [26] - Tencent's AI applications in advertising have significantly improved ad targeting and efficiency with the new ad system 3 0 covering 95% of Tencent's ad placements and improving stability by 26% [53] - In gaming Tencent's AI engine GiiNEX has reduced the time required for city modeling from 5 days to 25 minutes [55] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Tencent's operating income for 2024-2026 to be 658160 716550 and 782730 million yuan respectively with year-on-year growth rates of 8 07% 8 87% and 9 24% [24] - Tencent's adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 217396 240603 and 265288 million yuan with year-on-year growth rates of 38% 11% and 10% respectively [24] - The PE (Non-IFRS) ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 17 15 and 14 times [21]