浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 互联网行业 腾讯（700.HK）：借 AI 东风，腾讯能否 重回 700？ 业绩超预期，宣布派发股息及回购：公司 4Q24 收入人民币 1,725 亿 元，同比增长 11%，高于市场预期 2.3%；毛利率 52.6%，同比提升 3 个 百分点，各分部毛利率同比均有改善；调整后净利润为 553 亿元，同 比增长 30%，高于市场预期；调整后净利率 32.1%，4Q23 为 27.5%， 3Q24 为 35.8%。公司宣布派发每股股息 4.5 港元，在 2025 年至少回购 800 亿港元股份，两者约合 2.4%的股东回报。 本土游戏表现亮眼，预计 1Q25 保持强劲势头：4Q24 本土游戏收入同 比增长 23%至 332 亿元，增长强劲，好于我们预期，主要得益于去年 低基数以及旗舰游戏的健康表现。根据 Sensor Tower 数据监测，《王者 荣耀》在今年一季度目前表现依然亮眼，1 月和 2 月成为该游戏自 2021 年以来收入最高的两个月。国际游戏收入同比增长 15%至 160 亿元， 主要受《PUBG MOBILE》《荒野乱斗》等游戏推动。低基数效应在上半 年仍将持续，且递延收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 660.3 billion RMB for 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 8%. The Non-IFRS net profit reached 222.7 billion RMB, up 41% year-over-year, while the profit attributable to equity holders was 194.1 billion RMB, marking a 68% increase [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from AI integration in its gaming and advertising sectors, with new AI-driven games and enhanced advertising platforms anticipated to drive growth [8]. - The company’s capital expenditure for 2024 was 76.7 billion RMB, a significant increase of 221% year-over-year, with plans to further increase spending in 2025 [9]. Company Overview - The company operates in the media industry, with a current H-share price of HK$540.00 and a market capitalization of approximately 378.76 billion RMB [2]. - Major shareholders include MIH Holdings B.V., which holds 24.43% of the shares [2]. - The company has a diversified product portfolio, with financial technology and enterprise services accounting for 31.3%, online gaming 30.1%, social networking 18.8%, and online advertising 18.5% [4]. Financial Performance - For Q4, the company achieved a revenue of 172.4 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 11%, and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3%. Operating profit for the quarter was 51.5 billion RMB, up 24% year-over-year [7]. - The company’s net profit for 2025 is projected to be 221.6 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year growth of 14.18% [12]. Market Position - The company is positioned to leverage its stronghold in the AI search market, particularly through its WeChat platform, which has a daily search volume of nearly 600 million, compared to Baidu's 1.5 billion [9]. - The integration of AI is expected to enhance user engagement and advertising effectiveness, potentially leading to significant revenue growth in the advertising segment [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 660.3 billion for 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 8%. The Non-IFRS net profit reached RMB 222.7 billion, up 41% year-over-year, while the profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 194.1 billion, reflecting a 68% increase [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from AI integration in its gaming and advertising sectors, with new AI-driven games and enhanced advertising platforms likely to drive growth [8][9]. - The company plans to increase capital expenditures in 2025, with a focus on AI-related research and development, and has set a target for share buybacks of at least HK$ 80 billion in 2025 [9]. Company Overview - The company operates in the media industry, with a market capitalization of approximately HK$ 378.76 billion and a current share price of HK$ 540.00 [2]. - Major shareholders include MIH Holdings B.V., which holds 24.43% of the shares [2]. - The company's stock has shown significant growth over the past year, with a 101.73% increase [2]. Financial Performance - For Q4, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 172.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11%, and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3%. Operating profit for the quarter was RMB 51.5 billion, up 24% year-over-year [7]. - The company’s gaming revenue in Q4 grew by 23% to RMB 33.2 billion, driven by both existing popular games and new releases [9]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to equity holders for 2025 is RMB 221.6 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 14.18% [12]. Product Mix - The company's revenue is diversified across several segments: Financial Technology and Enterprise Services (31.3%), Online Games (30.1%), Social Networks (18.8%), and Online Advertising (18.5%) [4].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley raised the target price for Tencent Holdings to HKD 630, maintaining a "buy" rating, driven by optimism regarding its returns on artificial intelligence investments, growth in advertising revenue, demand in both enterprise and consumer markets, and improved profit margins [1] Financial Performance - Tencent's capital expenditure is expected to be approximately RMB 94 billion this year, primarily for GPU procurement [1] - Enterprise service revenue is projected to grow by 20% year-on-year [1] - Overall revenue and operating profit under non-International Financial Reporting Standards are expected to increase by 10% and 16% respectively, with an operating profit margin reaching 38% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 660.3 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a net profit of 194.1 billion yuan, up 68% year-on-year [4] - The growth in revenue and profit is driven by strong performance in gaming and the commercialization of WeChat [4][5] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with projected net profits of 216.9 billion yuan, 236.3 billion yuan, and 255.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2024 is reported at 660.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.4% [7] - Net profit for 2024 is 194.1 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 68.4% year-on-year [7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 23.6 yuan, 25.7 yuan, and 27.8 yuan respectively [4][7] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21.3, 19.5, and 18.0 respectively [4][7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 52.9% in 2024 to 55.1% by 2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 660.3 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8%, and a net profit of 194.1 billion CNY, which is a significant increase of 68% year-on-year [4] - The strong performance in 2024 Q4 includes a revenue of 172.4 billion CNY (up 10% year-on-year) and a net profit of 51.3 billion CNY (up 90% year-on-year) [4] - The growth in value-added services revenue reached 79 billion CNY (up 14% year-on-year), driven by strong performances in domestic and overseas gaming [4] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 216.9 billion CNY, 236.3 billion CNY, and 255.5 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2024 is reported at 660.3 billion CNY, with a projected revenue of 707.1 billion CNY for 2025 [7] - The net profit for 2024 is 194.1 billion CNY, with projections of 216.9 billion CNY for 2025 [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 52.9% in 2024 to 55.1% by 2027 [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 23.6 CNY for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.3 [7] Business Growth Drivers - The integration of AI technologies has significantly boosted user engagement, with daily active users of Tencent's products increasing over 20 times since the introduction of DeepSeek [5] - The number of evergreen games has increased from 12 in 2023 to 14 in 2024, with a strong pipeline of new games [6] - The advertising revenue from video accounts grew by 60% year-on-year in Q4 2024, indicating a robust monetization strategy [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - Tencent achieved revenue of 172.4 billion yuan in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3%. Operating profit reached 51.5 billion yuan, up 24% year-on-year, while Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was 55.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 30% year-on-year growth [2][4] Revenue Performance - The strong performance in the gaming sector, particularly from evergreen games and new game launches, drove Q4 revenue growth in both domestic and overseas markets. Domestic game revenue increased by 23% to 33.2 billion yuan, while overseas game revenue rose by 15% to 16 billion yuan [8] - The advertising segment continued to show robust growth, with marketing services revenue increasing by 17% to 35 billion yuan, supported by strong demand from advertisers [8] Profitability - Tencent's profit growth has consistently outpaced revenue growth for 10 consecutive quarters, with a Q4 gross margin of 52.6%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margins for value-added services, marketing services, and financial technology & enterprise services also saw improvements [8] Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - Capital expenditure in Q4 surged by 386.15% year-on-year to 36.578 billion yuan, with a significant portion allocated to AI projects. The company plans to repurchase over 80 billion Hong Kong dollars and increase the annual dividend by 32% to 4.50 Hong Kong dollars per share [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - Tencent achieved a revenue of 172.4 billion yuan in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3%. Operating profit reached 51.5 billion yuan, up 24% year-on-year, while Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was 55.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 30% year-on-year growth [2][4]. Revenue Performance - The strong performance in the gaming sector, particularly from evergreen games and new game launches, drove domestic and overseas game revenue growth in Q4. Domestic game revenue increased by 23% to 33.2 billion yuan, while overseas game revenue rose by 15% to 16 billion yuan [6][4]. - Advertising revenue remained robust, with marketing services revenue growing by 17% year-on-year to 35 billion yuan, supported by strong demand from advertisers [6][4]. - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue increased by 3% year-on-year to 56.1 billion yuan, driven by growth in wealth management and consumer loan services [6][4]. Profitability - Tencent's profit growth has consistently outpaced revenue growth for 10 consecutive quarters, with a gross margin of 52.6% in Q4, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [6][4]. - Non-IFRS net profit for Q4 was 55.3 billion yuan, influenced by a decrease in sales expenses and an increase in profits from joint ventures [6][4]. Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - Capital expenditure in Q4 surged by 386.15% year-on-year to 36.578 billion yuan, with a significant portion allocated to AI projects [6][4]. - Tencent plans to repurchase over 80 billion Hong Kong dollars worth of shares in 2025 and increase its annual dividend by 32% to 4.50 Hong Kong dollars per share [6][4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Tencent Holdings has announced its financial performance for 2024, highlighting significant growth in both revenue and profit [1] Group 2 - Tencent's revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 660.257 billion, representing an 8% year-on-year increase [1] - The profit attributable to equity holders is expected to reach RMB 194.073 billion, showing a substantial year-on-year growth of 68% [1] - The board of directors has proposed a final dividend of HKD 4.50 per share for the fiscal year 2024 [1]

Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, total revenue reached RMB 660,257 million, an 8% increase from RMB 609,015 million in 2023[7] - Gross profit for the same period was RMB 349,246 million, reflecting a 19% year-over-year growth from RMB 293,109 million[7] - Operating profit increased by 30% to RMB 208,099 million, compared to RMB 160,074 million in the previous year[7] - Net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 194,073 million, a 68% increase from RMB 115,216 million in 2023[7] - Basic earnings per share rose by 72% to RMB 20.938, up from RMB 12.186 in the prior year[7] - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased by 8% year-on-year to RMB 660.257 billion, compared to RMB 609.015 billion in 2023[17] - Gross profit rose by 19% year-on-year to RMB 349.246 billion, with a gross margin improvement from 48% to 53%[19] - Operating profit increased by 30% year-on-year to RMB 208.099 billion, up from RMB 160.074 billion in the previous year[17] - Net profit attributable to equity holders of the company grew by 68% year-on-year to RMB 194.073 billion, compared to RMB 115.216 billion in 2023[22] - The company reported a year-on-year increase in revenue from value-added services, reaching RMB 319,168 million in 2024, up from RMB 298,375 million in 2023[55] - The total comprehensive income for the year amounted to RMB 284,342 million, compared to RMB 107,182 million in the previous year[57] User Engagement and Growth - Monthly active accounts for WeChat and WeChat combined reached 1,385 million, a 3% increase year-over-year[10] - The number of paid members for value-added services grew by 7% to 262 million[10] - The company reported a significant increase in monthly active user accounts, reaching a total of 150 million, representing a 20% year-over-year growth[139] Revenue Segments - The value-added services segment reported a revenue increase of 7% to RMB 319.168 billion, with domestic game revenue growing by 10% to RMB 139.7 billion[18] - Marketing services revenue surged by 20% year-on-year to RMB 121.374 billion, driven by strong demand for advertising on various platforms[18] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 4% to RMB 211.956 billion, reflecting increased income from wealth management and business payment services[19] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to increase the final dividend to HKD 4.50 per share, a 32% increase from HKD 3.40 in 2023, subject to shareholder approval[9] - Cash dividends paid amounted to RMB 28,924 million, reflecting a significant return to shareholders[61] - The company repurchased shares worth RMB 98,666 million, impacting the equity structure[61] Investments and Capital Expenditures - Significant investments in AI-related capital expenditures and product innovation are expected to enhance advertising efficiency and game lifecycle[10] - Capital expenditures for Q4 2024 amounted to RMB 36.578 billion, reflecting investments in technology and infrastructure[43] - The company’s investments in new and existing investment companies totaled approximately RMB 76.66 billion, focusing on sectors such as game development, fintech, biomedicine, social media, sports equipment, and e-commerce[100] Cost Management - Selling and marketing expenses increased by 6% to RMB 36.388 billion, maintaining a stable percentage of 6% of total revenue[21] - The company plans to implement cost-cutting measures that are expected to save approximately $100 million annually[140] Financial Position and Cash Flow - The net cash position as of December 31, 2024, was RMB 76,798 million, down from RMB 95,462 million as of September 30, 2024, primarily due to capital expenditures and share buybacks[52] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 258,521 million, an increase from RMB 221,962 million in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 16.4%[63] - The company generated free cash flow of RMB 4,500 million in Q4 2024, supported by operating cash flow of RMB 54,000 million[52] Strategic Initiatives - The company emphasizes its commitment to innovation and sustainable development, aiming to create exceptional value for shareholders and society[134] - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and developing new products and technologies to meet societal needs[134] - Market expansion plans include entering three new international markets by the end of the fiscal year, aiming for a 10% increase in global market share[139] Corporate Governance and Compliance - The audit committee has reviewed the consolidated financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024, ensuring compliance with accounting standards[129] - The company has adhered to the corporate governance code, with ongoing reviews of its structure to ensure compliance[131] - The financial figures disclosed in the performance announcement have been verified by the auditors, ensuring accuracy and reliability[130]