Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HKD 492.22 [6][26] Core Views - Tencent's 4Q24 revenue is expected to grow by 8% YoY, with adjusted net profit increasing by 25% to RMB 53.5 billion [1] - Domestic gaming revenue is projected to accelerate by 18% YoY, while advertising revenue growth may slow to 13% due to the Olympics [1] - Financial technology revenue is expected to recover to 4% growth in 4Q24 [1] - Key catalysts for 2025 include the launch of new AI features, increased ad load rates on Video Accounts, and the expected monthly gross revenue of RMB 5-10 billion from the mobile game "Valorant" [1] Business Segments Advertising - 4Q24 advertising revenue growth is expected to slow to 13% YoY due to the Olympics and delayed recovery effects [2] - Ad load rates on Video Accounts have stabilized at 3-4%, with potential for further growth [2] - The integration of WeChat Mini Stores with public and private domain traffic is expected to drive GMV growth, with a projected GMV of RMB 500 billion in 2025 [2][11] Gaming - 4Q24 gaming revenue is expected to grow by 16% YoY, with domestic and overseas gaming revenue increasing by 18% and 13% respectively [3] - New game releases with longer deferred revenue cycles are expected to positively impact 4Q24 results [3] - Key games to watch include "DnF Mobile" and the upcoming "Honor of Kings: World" and "Valorant Mobile" [3] Financial Technology - Financial technology revenue is expected to grow by 4% YoY in 4Q24, driven by the recovery of offline payment services [2] - WeChat Search has started displaying products from WeChat Mini Stores, and the "Gift Sending" feature is expected to drive further growth [2][11] AI and Technological Innovations - Tencent is expected to launch new AI features in 2025, which could enhance mobile applications and improve user stickiness [1] - Tencent's AI-powered advertising tool, "Miaosi," has shown significant improvements in ad performance, with a 30% increase in Video Account ad spend during the Double 11 period [16] - Tencent's open-source MoE model, "Hunyuan Large," and 3D generation model, "Hunyuan 3D-1.0," are expected to drive innovation in AI applications [17][19] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been slightly adjusted, with expected revenues of RMB 655.3 billion, RMB 712.8 billion, and RMB 785.1 billion respectively [4][22] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised to RMB 220.9 billion, RMB 247.2 billion, and RMB 280.9 billion, reflecting high-margin business base effects [4][22] Valuation - The SOTP valuation for Tencent is HKD 492.22, based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis [26] - The valuation includes contributions from gaming, social networks, online advertising, financial technology, and enterprise services, with gaming contributing the largest share at 37.5% [26] Industry Comparison - Tencent's gaming and advertising businesses are compared to global peers, with Tencent's gaming PE at 14.2x, lower than the global average of 20.2x, and advertising PE at 13.8x, lower than the global average of 21.8x [26][28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" with a current price of HKD 380.00 and a fair value of HKD 478.52 [5][20]. Core Views - The report anticipates a strong performance in gaming, resilient advertising, and a recovery in financial services for Tencent in Q4 2024. The expected revenue for Q4 2024 is RMB 169.1 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 9% [9][20]. - The gaming revenue is projected to accelerate, with expectations of reaching RMB 46.6 billion in Q4 2024, a 14% year-over-year increase. Domestic gaming is expected to grow by 16% while overseas gaming revenue is projected to increase by 10% [9][20]. - The report maintains a positive outlook on Tencent's core business driven by product innovation and social media traffic, suggesting that the company can gradually release its commercialization potential through innovations like WeChat stores [9][20]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for Tencent from 2022 to 2026, with revenue expected to grow from RMB 5,546 million in 2022 to RMB 7,685 million in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.8% [4][20]. - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to increase from RMB 1,149 million in 2022 to RMB 2,775 million in 2026, with a significant growth rate of 45.3% in 2024 [4][20]. Financial Metrics - The report highlights key financial metrics, including an expected EPS of RMB 24.10 in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 14.5, and a projected ROE of 22.4% [4][20]. - The EBITDA is forecasted to grow from RMB 1,612 million in 2022 to RMB 3,379 million in 2026, indicating a strong operational performance [4][20]. Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the core business value at HKD 404 billion and the investment business value at HKD 37.23 billion, leading to a total fair value of HKD 478.52 per share [17][20]. - The gaming business is valued at HKD 189.74 per share based on an 18x P/E ratio, while the advertising business is valued at HKD 104.73 per share using a 27x P/E ratio [17][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for Tencent Holdings, indicating a cautious outlook on the stock's performance in the near term [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Tencent's stock has experienced a decline of approximately 9% following its inclusion in the U.S. Department of Defense's Chinese Military Companies List, marking a significant drop compared to the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index [5][6]. - Despite geopolitical risks, the report suggests that the impact on Tencent's business may be minimal, although market sentiment could be affected [6]. - Tencent's current price of approximately HKD 370 per share reflects a dynamic PE ratio of about 14 times, nearing the lower end of its historical valuation range [8][11]. - The report emphasizes Tencent's ongoing investments in AI, cybersecurity, cloud computing, and AR/VR, which are expected to drive future growth [6]. Summary by Sections Recent Events - On January 6, 2025, Tencent was listed on the CMC list, which led to a notable stock price drop [4]. - On January 8, 2025, WeChat was removed from the "Notorious Markets" list, indicating potential flexibility in U.S. regulatory actions [4]. Financial Performance - Tencent's revenue from value-added services reached CNY 826.95 billion in Q3 2024, a 9% year-on-year increase, with gaming revenue contributing significantly [13]. - The report notes that Tencent's international gaming revenue is approaching half of its domestic gaming revenue, indicating strong growth in overseas markets [13]. Business Developments - The report outlines Tencent's strategic focus on enhancing its WeChat ecosystem, with significant growth in GMV for WeChat Mini Programs expected in 2024 [13]. - Tencent's gaming division is undergoing restructuring to improve efficiency and address past challenges, with new game releases anticipated in 2025 [16]. Shareholder Returns - Tencent has repurchased 307 million shares in 2024, totaling HKD 112 billion, which has contributed to an increase in earnings per share [40]. - The total shareholder return for 2024 is estimated at approximately HKD 145.7 billion, reflecting a robust dividend yield [40].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings repurchased 4.01 million shares at a cost of approximately HKD 1.501 billion, with the repurchase price ranging from HKD 365.6 to HKD 379.4 per share [1]. Group 1 - The total expenditure for the share repurchase was around HKD 1.501 billion [1]. - The number of shares repurchased was 4.01 million [1]. - The price range for the repurchased shares was between HKD 365.6 and HKD 379.4 [1].

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - Tencent's e-commerce business is accelerating comprehensively, leveraging WeChat's social advantages and integrating private and public domain traffic [4][5][23] - WeChat's e-commerce ecosystem has seen rapid growth, with WeChat Shop GMV in 2024 being 1.92 times that of 2023, and order volume increasing by 2.25 times [4] - Tencent's organizational restructuring has elevated the e-commerce business, with WXG taking unified leadership, and the integration of video accounts, mini-programs, and public accounts [5][22] - Tencent's differentiated strategy focuses on social fission and innovative features like "gift-giving," which enhances user engagement without compromising the user experience [9][29] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from CNY 6,579 billion in 2024E to CNY 7,803 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 8.0% to 7.9% [18] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from CNY 2,247 billion in 2024E to CNY 2,803 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 9.1% to 14.4% [18] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from CNY 24.36 in 2024E to CNY 30.38 in 2026E [18] E-commerce Business Development - Tencent's e-commerce journey has evolved from early explorations (2005-2012) to the current phase of comprehensive acceleration (2024-present) [5] - The integration of private and public domain traffic through WeChat Shop and mini-programs has been a key driver of growth [23] - Video accounts have become a significant platform for e-commerce, with daily active users surpassing Kuaishou in Q3 2022 [4] Competitive Landscape - Tencent's "gift-giving" feature is a unique social play, differentiating it from competitors like Taobao and Douyin, which have similar features but lack the same level of social integration [10][28][29] - Taobao's "gift-giving" feature, launched in January 2025, allows users to send gifts without entering a recipient's address, but still relies on external platforms like WeChat for sharing [10] - Douyin's "gift-giving" feature, primarily focused on group buying, has seen significant usage, with over CNY 1 billion in gifts sent by the end of 2024 [28] Organizational and Operational Strategies - Tencent has restructured its e-commerce business to streamline operations, with WXG leading the charge and integrating various teams like WeChat Pay and Tencent Advertising [5][22] - The company has introduced new tools and features for merchants, such as the WeChat Shop Assistant app and upgraded order entry points for users [23] - Tencent's focus on social fission and innovative marketing strategies, like the "gift-giving" feature, has been instrumental in driving user engagement and merchant participation [9][29] Market Positioning and Growth Potential - Tencent's e-commerce business is well-positioned for growth, with a strong foundation in private domain e-commerce and video accounts, now expanding to a comprehensive WeChat ecosystem [20][31] - The company's e-commerce growth is expected to enhance monetization across the WeChat ecosystem, including payment fees, in-loop advertising, and technical service fees for WeChat Shop [20] - Tencent's strong social moat, coupled with its gaming and video account businesses, continues to drive growth, with AI and e-commerce offering additional upside potential [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700 HK) [1] Core Views - Tencent's content and platform strengths position it well for leadership in the AI era [1][5] - Tencent Video and Tencent Literature Group demonstrate strong operational strategies and growth potential [3] - Tencent's AI and e-commerce initiatives leverage its data, social, and scenario advantages [4][6] Tencent Video - Tencent Video focuses on high-quality content with 9 S+ series launched in 2024 [3] - Membership business grows steadily with SVIP users increasing and ARPPU rising [3][11] - Innovative advertising strategies enhance ad effectiveness and broaden revenue channels [3][11] - AIGC capabilities integrated into animation production improve efficiency and quality [33] Tencent Literature Group - Tencent Literature maintains a leading position in online literature with 170k new authors and 320k new novels added in H1 2024 [12] - The "Farm-Factory-Park" IP development model drives cross-media success and global expansion [14][24] - AI translation technology supports globalization with 3 billion cumulative users on Webnovel and 6k translated works by Nov 2024 [14] AI and E-commerce - Tencent leverages its HPC and data processing capabilities to close the gap with global peers in AI [4][6] - WeChat's high daily usage (40-50 times) provides a strong foundation for AI-driven user engagement [4][6] - WeChat Shop integrates e-commerce components, enhancing data and user profiling for targeted advertising [4][25] - E-commerce ad monetization rate on WeChat is below 1%, with significant room for growth compared to competitors like Kuaishou (3%) and Douyin (6%) [17] Financial Projections - Adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is projected at 2198/2482/2729 billion yuan, with PE valuations of 16/14/12x [20][31] - Revenue growth is expected at 9% in 2025 and 8% in 2026, with ROE improving to 20% in 2024 [22] Strategic Initiatives - Tencent's AI tools, such as "Yuanbao" and "ima," enhance user experience through multimodal capabilities and seamless integration with WeChat [25] - WeChat Shop's integration of online and offline commerce is expected to drive future growth [25]

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 430 HKD [1][4] Core Views - The 2025 WeChat Open Class PRO event highlighted the potential for further monetization within the WeChat ecosystem, particularly through the integration of mini-programs, WeChat Stores, and service accounts [1] - WeChat Stores have shown rapid growth, with GMV in 2024 reaching 1.92 times that of 2023, and order volume increasing by 2.25 times [1] - WeChat mini-games continue to grow rapidly, with monthly active users (MAU) reaching 500 million and daily active users (DAU) hitting 100 million, a 10% year-over-year increase [1] - Video accounts have seen significant growth, with live streaming sessions by quality content creators increasing by 100% and their income rising by 110% in 2024 [1] - WeChat's AI capabilities, including the newly launched WeChat Cloud AI Code Assistant, are expected to lower the development threshold for mini-programs and support global and intelligent transformation for enterprises [1] WeChat Store Growth - WeChat Stores have expanded comprehensively, helping merchants transition from single-channel to omnichannel operations, thereby enhancing the operability of WeChat e-commerce and broadening user reach [1] - The integration of WeChat Stores with mini-programs and public accounts has improved multi-scene marketing efficiency, with the "gift-giving" feature expected to drive new e-commerce growth by leveraging WeChat's social attributes [1] Mini-Games Performance - Mini-games have demonstrated strong performance, with over 900 games monetizing through IAA (In-App Advertising) and contributing over 1 million in revenue, with the overall market size expected to double in the next three years [1] - IAP (In-App Purchase) mini-games have benefited from improved infrastructure, with notable performance in MMO, SLG, and tower defense genres [1] - Cross-platform mini-games have shown significant growth in PC gaming duration, payment rates, and ARPU [1] Video Accounts and AI - Video accounts have become a new showcase space for mini-games, with short video views increasing by 170% [1] - The WeChat Cloud AI Code Assistant has been applied to hundreds of Tencent applications, facilitating efficient mini-program development [1] - Enterprise WeChat has introduced intelligent tools like smart tables, aiding in the digital transformation of manufacturing and supporting global expansion [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 6,536.7 billion RMB in 2024E to 7,599.2 billion RMB in 2026E, with a CAGR of 7.3% from 2024E to 2026E [3] - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to increase from 2,255.8 billion RMB in 2024E to 2,761.6 billion RMB in 2026E, with a CAGR of 10.6% over the same period [3] - The stock is currently trading at 15x, 13x, and 12x Non-IFRS PE for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [1][3]

Investment Rating - Tencent Holdings (00700 HK) maintains an "Outperform" rating [1] Core Views - Tencent being added to the US Department of Defense's Chinese Military Companies (CMC) list does not impact its core business [1][3] - The CMC list is relatively mild compared to other sanctions lists and primarily affects US Department of Defense procurement matters [3][7] - Tencent's overseas revenue, mainly from gaming, accounts for 29% of its gaming revenue and 9% of total revenue in 2024 [3][7] - Tencent has increased its share buybacks, repurchasing HKD 1 5 billion on January 7 and 18 2025, signaling confidence in its business [4][15] Business Analysis Overseas Gaming - Tencent's overseas gaming revenue heavily relies on acquired subsidiaries such as Supercell (Finland), Riot Games (US), and Miniclip (Europe) [3][7] - Key acquisitions include Riot Games (100% ownership, acquired in 2008 2011 2015), Supercell (84 3% ownership, acquired in 2016), and Miniclip (largest shareholder since 2015) [8] Growth Potential - Tencent has significant growth potential in areas such as WeChat ecosystem monetization and AI integration [4][16] - E-commerce: Tencent has shown potential in e-commerce and local life services, with the "Gift Sending" feature gaining popularity in 2024 [16] - AI: Increased capital expenditure on AI, with products like "Yuanbao" and "ima" launched, and AI integration into WeChat enhancing advertising business growth [16] Financial Projections - Adjusted net profit for 2024 2026 is projected to be RMB 2198 billion, RMB 2482 billion, and RMB 2729 billion, respectively [16] - PE valuations for 2024 2026 are 16x, 14x, and 13x, indicating historically low valuations [16] Historical Context - Similar cases like Xiaomi and SMIC show that companies removed from the CMC list often experience stock price recovery [13] - Xiaomi was removed from the CCMC list within 4 months of filing a lawsuit, leading to a 9 04% stock price increase over four days [13]

证券时报•数据宝统计显示，1月8日有63家香港上市公司进行了股份回购，合计回购5642.41万股，回购 金额20.49亿港元。 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 港股回购 港股回购、公司回购、回购、股份回购、港股 腾讯控股回购数量405.00万股，回购金额15.03亿港元，回购最高价为379.200港元，最低价为366.000港 元，年内累计回购金额51.08亿港元；小米集团-W回购数量430.00万股，回购金额1.42亿港元，回购最 高价为33.650港元，最低价为32.600港元，年内累计回购金额1.42亿港元；安踏体育回购数量132.00万 股，回购金额9983.50万港元，回购最高价为77.150港元，最低价为74.800港元，年内累计回购金额4.98 亿港元。 以金额进行统计，1月8日回购金额最多的是腾讯控股，回购金额为15.03亿港元；其次是小米集团-W， 回购金额为1.42亿港元；回购金额居前的还有安踏体育、友邦保险等。回购数量上看，1月8日回购股数 最多的是美瑞健康国际，当日回购量为907.20万股；其次是石药集团、中国生物制药等，回购数量分别 为670.00万股、 ...

Investment Rating - Target price of 540 HKD, representing a 42% upside from the last closing price, with a Buy rating [4][6] Core Views - The US sanctions on Tencent are not expected to have a fundamental impact on its business, and the company has actively responded by initiating a review process [1][2] - Tencent's diversified business layout, particularly in gaming, advertising, and fintech, demonstrates strong adaptability and growth potential [3] - The company's free float ratio is approximately 61%, and US institutional holdings account for about 11% of its shares, providing opportunities for domestic investors if US capital divests [2] - Tencent's international business exposure is relatively low, with US-related revenue accounting for only about 5% of total revenue [3] Business Performance and Strategy Diversified Business Layout - Tencent's Q3 2024 revenue reached 167.2 billion RMB, with the following breakdown: Value-Added Services (49%), Advertising (18%), and Fintech & Enterprise Services (32%) [3] - The company's international business primarily involves investments in US-based gaming companies, with minimal long-term impact expected from the sanctions [3] Content Ecosystem and IP Strategy - Tencent's entertainment business has shown steady growth, with significant achievements in IP integration and cultural export through platforms like Tencent Video and Yuewen Group [3] - Tencent Video has over 60 million daily active users and 116 million paying members, with a focus on high-quality content and member structure optimization [16][17] - Short-form video content is a key growth area, with both horizontal and vertical formats being developed to enhance user engagement and commercial potential [19] AI and Global Expansion - Generative AI (AIGC) is a core driver of Tencent's future growth, with applications in content creation, recommendation algorithms, and business service optimization [12] - Tencent's global investments, including stakes in companies like Riot Games and Supercell, have strengthened its international competitiveness, with overseas gaming revenue accounting for 29% of total gaming revenue in Q3 2024 [13] - The company plans to further expand its global presence through partnerships and AI-driven localization strategies [14] Capital Management - Tencent repurchased 112 billion HKD worth of shares in 2024, exceeding its target of 100 billion HKD, and plans to continue optimizing capital efficiency and shareholder returns [11] Financial Projections - Tencent's revenue is projected to grow from 718.6 billion RMB in 2025 to 776.6 billion RMB in 2026, with EBITDA margins expected to remain stable at around 39% [29] - The company's net profit is forecasted to increase from 231.4 billion RMB in 2025 to 255.5 billion RMB in 2026, driven by strong performance across its core business segments [29]