Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings, citing its leadership in the internet and gaming sectors, and its potential to benefit from the continued growth of the gaming industry [1][95] Core Views - Tencent is China's largest social platform company, with a massive user base that provides a solid foundation for its various businesses As of Q2 2024, QQ has 571 million monthly active users (MAUs), while WeChat has 1 371 billion MAUs [1] - Tencent is a leader in China's gaming industry, with a 48 2% market share in 2023 The company is expected to benefit from the growth of the mobile gaming industry, which is projected to grow at 4 65%, 3 91%, and 3 30% from 2024 to 2026 respectively [1] - Video accounts are a key growth driver for Tencent's advertising business In Q2 2024, the company's online advertising revenue grew 19% YoY to RMB 29 9 billion, driven by video accounts and long-form video content [1] - Tencent is one of the duopolies in China's payment industry, with WeChat Pay and Alipay accounting for over 94% of the market share in Q3 2023 The third-party personal payment market is expected to grow at 10 8%, 9 7%, and 8 9% from 2024 to 2026 respectively [1] Business Segments Social and Communication - QQ and WeChat are Tencent's core social tools As of Q2 2024, QQ has 571 million MAUs, while WeChat has 1 371 billion MAUs [1][51] - Video accounts are a strategic growth area for Tencent, with significant user engagement and advertising revenue growth In 2023, video account advertising revenue exceeded RMB 3 billion in Q2, and the annual GMV surpassed RMB 100 billion [55][56] Gaming - Tencent is the leader in China's gaming industry, with a 48 2% market share in 2023 The company has over 170 self-developed and licensed games, including popular titles like "Honor of Kings" and "PUBG Mobile" [1][65] - The mini-game market is growing rapidly, with 750 million active users in February 2024, accounting for 80 3% of the total traffic Tencent's mini-game revenue grew over 30% YoY in H1 2024 [1][65] Online Advertising - Tencent's online advertising revenue grew 22 65% YoY in H1 2024, driven by video accounts and long-form video content The company expects the online advertising business to grow at 19%, 21%, and 23% from 2024 to 2026 respectively [88][90] FinTech and Business Services - Tencent's FinTech and Business Services segment is benefiting from the growth of the third-party payment and cloud services markets The third-party personal payment market is expected to grow at 10 8%, 9 7%, and 8 9% from 2024 to 2026 respectively [76][77] - Tencent Cloud holds a 16% market share in China's cloud infrastructure services market in Q2 2024 The company is leveraging its AI capabilities, such as the Hunyuan large model, to attract more customers [81][82] Financial Performance and Valuation - Tencent's revenue grew 9 82% YoY in 2023 to RMB 609 015 billion, with a net profit of RMB 115 216 billion The company expects revenue to grow at 8 56%, 9 24%, and 10 13% from 2024 to 2026, with net profit growing at 47 86%, 12 22%, and 13 13% respectively [2][95] - The company's EPS is expected to be RMB 18 38, RMB 20 63, and RMB 23 34 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a PE ratio of 20 16x, 17 96x, and 15 88x based on the closing price of HKD 402 80 on November 27, 2024 [95] Industry Outlook - China's mobile gaming industry is expected to grow at 4 65%, 3 91%, and 3 30% from 2024 to 2026, driven by the recovery of the economy and the normalization of game license approvals [68] - The online advertising market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11% from 2024 to 2029, with video accounts playing a significant role in driving Tencent's advertising revenue growth [73][74]

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2024 年 11 月 14 日 腾讯控股(700.HK) Q3 利润超预期，后续增长有望持续 事件：腾讯控股发布公司 2024 财年 Q3 财季，期间收入同比增长 8%至 1671.9 亿元，三大业务板块尤其是游戏与广告均实现稳健增长。细分来看增值服收入同 比增长 9%至 827.0 亿元，广告营销服务收入同比增长 17%至 299.9 亿元，金融 科技及企业服务收入同比增长 2%至 530.9 亿元；综合毛利率企稳 53%水平，受 益于分占联营公司及合营公司盈利净额增长与有效税率的下降，Q3 公司的 Non-GaaP 归母净利润为 598.1 亿同比增长 33%，利润大超市场预期。 报告摘要 业务矩阵数据依旧稳健增长 2024Q3 微信及 WeChat 的合并月活跃账户数为 13.82 亿，同比增加 3%。QQ 的移动终端月活跃账户数为 5.62 亿，同比增加 0.7%。 在腾讯的各项业务中，小程序交易生态活跃，2024Q3 的交易额超 2 万亿元，同比 增长十几个百分点，得益于在点餐、电动车充电及医疗服务等应用场景中有更好 的覆盖与更优的解决方案。 本土游戏表现带动游戏板块强势增长 2024Q3，腾讯的 ...

2024 年 11 月 20 日 公司研究 产品高峰下游戏超预期，宏观弱恢复广告显韧性 ——腾讯控股（0700.HK）2024 年三季度业绩点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------|----------------------------|-----------------------------------------|-----------------|------------------------------------------------|----------------------|------------------| | 要点 | | | | | 买入（维持） | | | | 事件 ...

[Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 【 广 发 传 媒 & 海 外 】 腾 讯 控 股 （00700.HK） 主业稳健，小程序交易场景富有想象空间 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 公司发布 24Q3 业绩：24Q3 收入达 1672 亿元，YoY/QoQ+8%/+4%,vs. 彭博一致预期为 1679 亿元。24Q3NonGAAP 归母净利润为 598 亿元， YoY/QoQ+33%/+4%，vs.一致预期为 544 亿元。 ⚫ 24Q3 游戏和广告表现稳健，金融业务受消费疲弱拖累，小程序持续扩 大交易场景。（1）24Q3 游戏收入达到 518 亿元，YoY/QoQ+13%/+7%。 本土游戏同增 14%，《无畏契约》、《王者荣耀》、《和平精英》和《地下 城与勇士：起源》驱动了增长。海外游戏收入同增 9%，《PUBG Mobile》 和《荒野乱斗》表现强劲。（2）24Q3 社交网络收入为 309 亿元， YoY/QoQ+4%/+2% 。（ 3 ） 24Q3 网 络 广 告 收 入 为 300 亿 元 ， YoY/QoQ+17%/+0%。广告主在视频号、小程序和搜一搜的 ...

%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨腾讯控股（0700.HK） [Table_Title] 腾讯 24Q3 业绩点评：经营业绩符合预期，增长 韧性持续显现 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 报告要点 | | | [Table_Summary] 腾讯 24Q3 实现收入 1672 亿元，同比 +8% ，环比 +4% ；实现经营盈利 533 亿元，同比 +20% ， | | | 环比 +5% ； Non-IFRS 归母净利润 598 亿元，同比 +33% ，环比 +4% 。收入端： 1 ）长青游戏表 现稳健叠加新游增量，带动国内及海外游戏 Q3 收入均提速增长； 2 ） AI 持续赋能，广告增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700) with a target price of 404.2 HKD [1] Core Views - Tencent's 3Q2024 revenue increased by 8% YoY, with Non-IFRS operating profit up 19% YoY, showing a multiplier effect where profit growth outpaces revenue growth [1] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders rose 33% YoY, exceeding Bloomberg estimates by 10% [1] - The company's gross margin improved by 3.6 percentage points YoY, while operating expenses increased by 12% YoY, slightly above expectations but still at a relatively low rate [1] Business Segments Online Games - Online game revenue grew 13% YoY in 3Q2024, driven by domestic titles such as "Valorant," "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" [1] - Domestic game revenue increased 14% YoY, slightly above expectations, while overseas game revenue grew 9% YoY (11% on a constant currency basis), slightly below expectations [1] - The company expects game revenue growth to accelerate further in 4Q2024, with a focus on the integration of "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" and a major content update planned for the Chinese New Year [1] Advertising Services - Advertising revenue increased 17% YoY in 3Q2024, in line with expectations, driven by growth in gaming and e-commerce ad spending [1] - Video ad revenue grew over 60% YoY, with ad load rates still significantly lower than peers, indicating room for further inventory expansion [1] - Search ad revenue grew over 100% YoY, benefiting from improved search relevance through LLM capabilities [1] Fintech and Business Services (FBS) - FBS revenue grew 2% YoY in 3Q2024, in line with expectations but slightly below Bloomberg estimates [1] - Payment TPV growth rebounded in October, with GPU-related cloud revenue now accounting for a double-digit percentage of IaaS cloud revenue, indicating growing contributions from AI-driven computing demand [1] Investment Recommendation - The report raises the forecast for Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to 2281/2649/2940 billion yuan (previously 2178/2517/2786 billion yuan), representing YoY growth of 45%/16%/11% [1] - As of 2024/11/17, Tencent's stock price corresponds to 2024/2025/2026 forecast P/E ratios of 15x/12x/11x, with the 12-month Bloomberg forward P/E below the 5-year median by 1.1 standard deviations, indicating relatively low valuation [1] - The report expects accelerated game growth, improved advertising and financial services performance, and potential share buybacks to support valuation recovery, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

升 Q3 广告超预期，预期游戏收入增速持续提 ——腾讯控股（0700.HK）24Q3 季报点评 核心观点 ⚫ 24Q3 公司营业收入为 1671.93 亿（yoy+8%, qoq+4%）。毛利率为 53% （yoy+4pp, qoq-0.2pp）。24Q3 归母净利润（IFRS）为 532.3 亿(yoy+47%, qoq+12%)；归母净利润（Non-IFRS）为 598.13 亿(yoy+33%, qoq+4%)。 ⚫ 24Q3 增值服务收入 826.95 亿(yoy+9%, qoq+5%)。其中，国际市场游戏收入为 145 亿（yoy+9%），得益于《PUBG MOBILE》等游戏的强劲表现；本土市场游戏 收入 373 亿(yoy+14%)，主要系《无畏契约》、《王者荣耀》、《和平精英》及 《地下城与勇士：起源》等游戏驱动。24Q4 我们预期游戏增速持续增长：1）23Q4 游戏低基数；2）境外收入确认周期更长。我们预期游戏增速提升甚至有望延续至 25Q1。1）24Q1 国内游戏低基数；2）25Q1 有《DNF》新春版本拉升用户活跃叠 加《三角洲行动》新增战役模式及海外版本。3）境外流水递延将持续确收。社 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 腾讯控股（00700.HK） 2024Q3 业绩点评：利润大超预期，金融支付 毛利率提升 6.85pct 2024 年 11 月 19 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024E | FY2025E | FY2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 554552 | 609015 | 658160 | 716550 | 782730 | | 同比 (%) | (1.21) | 9.82 | 8.07 | 8.87 | 9.24 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 188243 | 115216 | 163001 | 185874 | 210225 | | 同比 (%) | (16.27) | (38.79) | 41. ...

升 Q3 广告超预期，预期游戏收入增速持续提 ——腾讯控股（0700.HK）24Q3 季报点评 核心观点 ⚫ 24Q3 公司营业收入为 1671.93 亿（yoy+8%, qoq+4%）。毛利率为 53% （yoy+4pp, qoq-0.2pp）。24Q3 归母净利润（IFRS）为 532.3 亿(yoy+47%, qoq+12%)；归母净利润（Non-IFRS）为 598.13 亿(yoy+33%, qoq+4%)。 ⚫ 24Q3 增值服务收入 826.95 亿(yoy+9%, qoq+5%)。其中，国际市场游戏收入为 145 亿（yoy+9%），得益于《PUBG MOBILE》等游戏的强劲表现；本土市场游戏 收入 373 亿(yoy+14%)，主要系《无畏契约》、《王者荣耀》、《和平精英》及 《地下城与勇士：起源》等游戏驱动。24Q4 我们预期游戏增速持续增长：1）23Q4 游戏低基数；2）境外收入确认周期更长。我们预期游戏增速提升甚至有望延续至 25Q1。1）24Q1 国内游戏低基数；2）25Q1 有《DNF》新春版本拉升用户活跃叠 加《三角洲行动》新增战役模式及海外版本。3）境外流水递延将持续确收。社 ...